Quantitative Risk Assessment in

Chevron

Use in Decision-Making Involving Major Risks

Rod Travis
Team Lead, HES Risk Management
Chevron Energy Technology Company

2013 Chevron U.S.A. Inc. All rights reserved.

 Presentation Outline

Risk, quantitative risk assessment (QRA) and risk tolerance criteria

Use of QRA in Land Use Planning around Major Hazard Facilities
QRA Techniques

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 Risk and Quantitative Risk Assessment Defined

Risk A measure of human injury, environmental damage, or economic

loss in terms of both the incident likelihood and the magnitude of the
injury, damage, or loss or the probability that a hazard will result in a
specified level of loss
Risk is defined mathematically as:
Risk = [Consequences] x [Likelihood]
[Severity] x [Frequency]

Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) The systematic development of

numerical estimates of the expected frequency and consequence of
potential accidents associated with a facility or operation based on
engineering evaluation and mathematical techniques.

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 Risk Tolerance and Risk Tolerance Criteria

Risk Tolerance
A willingness by society as a whole to live with a risk so as to secure
certain benefits in the confidence that the risk is one that is worth taking
and that it is being properly controlled. However, it does not imply that
everyone would agree without reservation to take this risk or have it
imposed on them. [United Kingdom, Health and Safety Executive, 2001]
Risk tolerance criteria
A predetermined measure of risk used to aid decisions about whether
further efforts to reduce the risk are warranted.

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 Individual Risk

Individual Risk represents the likelihood that a

person will sustain a fatal injury by all of the
hazardous events to which he or she may be
exposed. Presented as a frequency number
(fatalities/year). Individual risk ensures that each
person is not exposed to an aggregation of different
risk exposures, the sum of which leads to an overall
high risk exposure for the individual.

Example of
Specifies an upper limit amount of
10-4 fatalities/year for individual Individual
members of the public exposed to Risk Criteria
an industrial hazard

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 Individual Risk Criteria Examples

Singapore
The 5 x 10-5 per year Individual Risk Contour remains within the fenceline
The 5 x 10-6 per year Individual Risk Contour extends into Industrial
Developments only
The 1 x 10-6 per year Individual Risk Contour extends into Commercial and
Industrial Developments only
Source Singapore Pollution Control Department Guidelines for Quantitative Risk Assessment, April 2007

Western Australia
A risk level in residential zones of 1 x 10-6 per year or less is so small as to be
acceptable to EPA
A risk level in sensitive areas of 5 x 10-7 per year or less is so small as to be
acceptable to EPA
Risk level from Industrial facilities should not exceed 5 x 10-5 per year at the
boundary
Source - Guidance for Risk Assessment and Management: Offsite individual risk from Hazardous Industrial Plant, No.2
WA EPA, July 2000

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 Societal Risk

Societal Risk represents the number of people who may

be killed by large, single events and how often those Major
events might occur. Presented as F-N Curves (Plots Hazard
depicting the frequency F of exceeding N or more
fatalities) which set:
Risk criteria for the public
Total Number of Exposed People
Risk criteria for employees

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 Societal Risk Criteria Examples

1.00E-02

Guidelines for Developing

Quantitative Safety Risk
F, Cummulative Frequency of N or more Fatalities

1.00E-03 Criteria, CCPS, 2009

1.00E-04

1.00E-05

1.00E-06

1.00E-07

1.00E-08

1.00E-09
10 100 1000
N, Fatalities

UK Dutch Hong Kong Victoria NSW

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 Consequence vs. Risk-Based Approach to Land Use
Planning

Consequence (Deterministic) approach uses only the consequence

variable in the risk equation. Theoretically this approach would
ensure no fatalities will occur as the result of facility operations, but
typically results in impractical and unenforceable requirements
Examples All airplanes must be designed to never crash or no toxic
release shall never pass a facility fence line
Risk approach uses both the consequence and the likelihood
parameters of the risk equation, taking into account the significant
safeguards in place that lower the frequency of major
accidents/releases and align the risk with overall societal nor
Example Require an exclusion zone where the risk of fatality to any
individual exceeds the chance of 1 in 10,000 years

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 Consequence (Deterministic) Approach

Momentum Jet Cloud

CONCENTRATION CONTOURS: OVERHEAD VIEW
Wellpad I Pipeline
400.0

300.0

50mm Hole
200.0 Momentum Jet Cloud
CONCENTRATION CONTOURS: OVERHEAD VIEW
Crosswind Distance (meters)

Wellpad I Pipeline
400.0
100.0

300.0
0.0

-100.0
200.0
Full Bore Rupture

Crosswind Distance (meters)

100.0
-200.0

0.0
-300.0

-100.0
-400.0
0.0 500.0 1000.0 1500.0 2000.0 2500.0 3000.0 3500.0 4000.0 4500.0
Downwind Distance (meters)
1000 ppm Hydrogen Sulfide -200.0
100 ppm Hydrogen Sulfide
casename=WPI1AA3L
windspeed = 1.00 m/s -300.0
F stability
CANARY by Quest Thu Aug 18 10:33:38 2011

-400.0
0.0 500.0 1000.0 1500.0 2000.0 2500.0 3000.0 3500.0 4000.0 4500.0
Downwind Distance (meters)
1000 ppm Hydrogen Sulfide
100 ppm Hydrogen Sulfide

CANARY by Quest

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 Likelihood of Different Consequences

100%

90%

80%
95% of releases from all
70% other equipment are less
than 50mm equivalent
% of Hole size

60% diameter

50% 80% of releases from 88% of releases

pressure vessels are from piping are
40% less than 50mm
less than 50mm
equivalent diameter equivalent
30%
diameter
20%
Offshore Hydrocarbon Releases
10%
2001 2008, HSE RR672, 2008
0%
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Hole Size, mm

COMPRESSORS, CENTRIFUGAL COMPRESSORS, RECIPROCATING FILTERS

HEAT EXCHANGERS, HC IN SHELL HEAT EXCHANGERS, HC IN TUBE HEAT EXCHANGERS, PLATE
FIN FAN COOLERS INSTRUMENTS PIG LAUNCHERS/RECEIVERS
PRESSURE VESSEL PUMPS, CENTRIFUGAL PUMPS, RECIPROCATING
PIPES, VALVES & FLANGES =<3" PIPES, VALVES & FLANGES >3"

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 Why Chevron Use a Risk-Based Approach

Many countries worldwide have recognized that a consequence

based approach results in land use requirements for industrial
developments that are not sustainable.
This is particularly true of densely populated regions such as UK &
Europe, Singapore, Hong Kong and the urban areas of Australia and
the risk based approach is therefore enshrined in law in these
countries
Chevron (in common with the majority of international energy
companies) has adopted a risk based approach as its default position
for the management of hazards associated with its operations

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 Governments that Require (or Use) QRA and Set (or
Use) Risk Criteria

Australia Netherlands
Brazil Norway
Canada Singapore
China (Hong Kong) Switzerland
Czech Republic United Kingdom (UK)
Demark US Department of
France Energy/Nuclear Regulatory
Commission
Hungary
Predominant Worldwide Practice
is to Use a Risk-Based Approach
for Land Use Planning

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 Some Companies/Industries Using QRA for Risk
Decision-Making (Not Exhaustive)

Oil Industry Chemical Industry

BP Eastman Chemical Company
Chevron Albemarle
Conoco/Phillips Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.
ExxonMobil Rohm and Haas Company, retired
Norske Hydro Solutia, Celanese
Shell Dow Chemical
Statoil Lyondell Basell Industries
Total DuPont
Pharmaceutical Industry Croda, Inc.
Merck Intel
Eli Lilly and Company Aerospace/Defense/Nuclear

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 QRA Process

Hazard Identification
(IHAZID process) Walkthrough
IHAZID PFDs
PHA Scenario Process descriptions
Development

PFDs / P&IDs Release modeling

Historical data Frequency Consequence Dispersion modeling
Analysis Analysis
Ignition models Explosion models
Investigate
Fire models
Further Risk
Reduction Risk Risk Tolerance
Measures Assessment Criteria

Event Trees which

take consideration of:
Weather conditions Are risks reduced
No
to a level that
Population distributions FN Curve (Societal Risk)
is as low as is
Plant layout
reasonable? Individual Risk Contours
Fatality models
Protective equipment Good Practice
Emergency response Yes Codes & Standards
Document Plan to
Implement agreed risk
reduction measures
15
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 How Do We Quantify Risk?

Primary means of quantification is through event trees

These take an initiating event (e.g. -inch release from compressor
suction scrubber) and develop it into all possible outcomes unignited,
early ignition leading to jet fire, delayed ignition in open leading to flash
fire, delayed ignition in congested / confined region leading to explosion.
Supported by fault trees, FMEA, part counts, reliability analysis and
ignition modeling to quantify frequency and branch probabilities
Supported by dispersion analysis, fire analysis, explosion analysis
and vulnerability assessments to quantify consequence

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 Event Frequency Determination

Loss of Probability of Ignition? Delayed Ignition? Explosion? Outcome

Containment Hole Size
Event / year

Small Yes Yes Yes Explosion

No Flash Fire

No Jet Fire

No Toxic Exposure

Medium Yes Yes Yes Explosion

No Flash Fire

No Jet Fire

No Toxic Exposure

Large Yes Yes Yes Explosion

No Flash Fire

No Jet Fire

No Toxic Exposure

Massive Yes Yes Yes Explosion

No Flash Fire

No Jet Fire

No Toxic Exposure

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 Vulnerability Determination

Flammables Toxics
Probability of Fatality = Probability of Fatality =
a + b(Q4/3t) a + bLn(Cnt)

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 QRA Approach
Determination of Risk Contours

19
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 Risk Measures

Risk Contours
Probability of fatality per year to an
individual located on the spot 24 hours per day/365 days per year
Graphical representation of the
potential impact zone of hazards
Used primarily for public exposure since people living in close proximity to a
facility can be continuously exposed
FN Curve
Measure of the risk of incidents which can cause multiple fatalities
Typically used to gauge the acceptability of having large congregations of
people exposed to hazards (for example, in schools, hospitals, etc. or during
turnarounds or in occupied buildings on site)
Individual Risk per Annum (IRPA)
Likelihood of fatality per year for an individual based on their exposure to that
risk. Used primarily for workers who are only exposed to the risk when at
work
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 Typical QRA Output

1.00E-02
1.00E-03
1.00E-04
1.00E-05
1.00E-06
1.00E-07

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 Further Reading

Guidelines for Developing Quantitative Safety Risk Criteria, CCPS,

2009
Guidelines for Chemical Process Quantitative Risk Analysis, CCPS,
2000
Reducing Risks, Protecting People, Health and Safety Executive,
2001

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 Q&A

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