TO: Interested Parties

FROM: Global Strategy Group

DATE: August 31, 2017
RE: POLL RESULTS Paul Ryans Home District Vulnerable to Democratic Challenge in 2018

Voters in Wisconsins 1st Congressional District are deeply dissatisfied with national leadership. Trump and
Republicans failed attempts to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act have particularly soured voters,
many of whom are now inclined to support a Democratic challenger in 2018. A strong candidate with deep
ties to his community in southeastern Wisconsin and a desire to shake things up in Washington, like
Democrat Randy Bryce, has the potential to unseat Speaker Ryan next November. Key findings from Global
Strategy Groups recent poll of 401 likely 2018 General Election voters in Wisconsins 1st Congressional
District are as follows.

KEY SURVEY FINDINGS:

By a significant margin, voters in the district are unfavorable to Donald Trump and disapprove of the job he
is doing as President. A majority of likely 2018 voters in the district (52%) are unfavorable to Donald Trump,
including a near-majority (45%) who say they are very unfavorable. By a margin of ten points, voters disapprove
of the job Trump is doing as President (42% approve/52% disapprove), including 43% of voters who strongly
disapprove of the job he is doing as President. The results of our survey indicate that voters will carry this
dissatisfaction with them to the ballot box in 2018.

Speaker Paul Ryan is vulnerable in his home district and a strong challenger such as Democrat Randy Bryce
has the potential to unseat him. Ryan remains popular with voters in his district, who are favorable to him
personally (50% favorable/41% unfavorable). In a head-to-head against an unnamed Democratic challenger in
the 2018 election for Congress, however, Ryan maintains just a modest lead: 42% would vote for Ryan and 38%
for an unknown Democratic candidate. Head-to-head Ryan is below 50% (46% Ryan/37% Bryce), and when we
read short positive profiles introducing voters to both Speaker Ryan and Democratic candidate Randy Bryce,
Ryans lead dissolves. This lead, especially against an incumbent of Ryans tenure and position, indicates Bryce
could realistically unseat Ryan in 2018.
- Paul Ryan is a Republican and fifth-generation Wisconsin native who serves as Speaker of the House of
Representatives. A committed conservative and public servant, Ryan has spent his life advocating for real
solutions that will expand opportunity for all Americans. 41%
- Randy Bryce is a US Army veteran, cancer survivor, and union ironworker from Caledonia. He joined the race
for Wisconsins 1st Congressional District because hes frustrated with DC politicians who continue to put
politics and party over people and wants to put the priorities of hardworking Americans first. 44%

Shepherding an unpopular health care bill through Congress has hurt Ryans chance of re-election in his
district. After voters hear a short statement criticizing Ryan for pushing to pass a Republican health care bill that
would have removed protections for pre-existing conditions, caused 23 million Americans to lose their health
insurance, and increased health care costs for seniors despite opposition from health care professionals, a
majority of voters (57%) said they were less likely to vote for Paul Ryan, including 42% who said it made them
much less likely to vote for him.

ABOUT THIS POLL

Global Strategy Group conducted a survey from August 22-24, 2017 with 401 likely 2018 General Election voters in
Wisconsins 1 st Congressional District. The results have a margin of error of +/-4.9%, and care has been taken to ensure the
geographic and demographic divisions of the expected electorate are properly represented ba sed on past voter turnout
statistics.

NEW YORK WASHINGTON,DC HARTFORD DENVER CHICAGO GLOBALSTRATEGYGROUP

Copyright 2017 August 22 - 24, 2017 401 Interviews
WI-01 Tracker 12164 Margin of Error: +/- 4.9%

S1. Are you at least 18 years old and registered to vote at [ADDRESS ON Yes ..............................................................................................................
100%
FILE]? No ................................................................................................................
-
Don't know/Refused ....................................................................................
-

S2. And as you may know, there will be an election for Congress, Definitely ......................................................................................................
79%
Governor, and other state offices in November of 2018. I know it is a long Probably ......................................................................................................
17
Chance 50-50 ..............................................................................................
4
time from now, but how likely are you to vote in the November 2018 Probably not ................................................................................................
-
general election - will you definitely vote, probably vote, are the chances Definitely not ................................................................................................
-
50-50, probably not vote, or definitely not vote? Don't know/Refused ....................................................................................
*

P1. No matter how you may be planning to vote this year, when it comes to Strong Democrat .........................................................................................
21%
politics, do you generally think of yourself as a strong Democrat, not very Weak Democrat ...........................................................................................
8
Independent / Closer to the Democrats.......................................................
12
strong Democrat, strong Republican, not very strong Republican, or Independent.................................................................................................
15
independent? [IF INDEPENDENT/DK/REFUSED] Do you think of yourself as Independent / Closer to the Republicans ....................................................
9
closer to the Democrats or the Republicans? Weak Republican ........................................................................................
9
Strong Republican .......................................................................................
21
VOL: (Don't know/Refused) ..................................................................................
4

DEMOCRAT (NET) .....................................................................................

30%
INDEPENDENT (NET) ................................................................................
40
REPUBLICAN (NET) ...................................................................................
30

I have a list of names, and I would like to get your opinion of each one. Just let me know if there's one you haven't heard of...[IF
FAVORABLE] And is your opinion very favorable or somewhat favorable? [IF UNFAVORABLE] And is your opinion very unfavorable or
somewhat unfavorable?

FAV UNFAV NET

Very Some Some Very (CR) NH (DK/Ref.) FAV UNFAV FAM
Paul Ryan ...........................................................................................................................................................................................
30% 20 14 27 6 1 3 50% 41 91
Donald Trump ...................................................................................................................................................................................
22% 19 7 45 4 - 2 41% 52 93
Randy Bryce ......................................................................................................................................................................................
2% 5 1 2 16 69 5 7% 3 10

Q2. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as Approve - strongly .......................................................................................
22%
president? [IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE] And do you feel that way strongly, or Approve - somewhat....................................................................................
21
Disapprove - somewhat ...............................................................................
8
just somewhat? Disapprove - strongly...................................................................................
43
VOL: (Not sure) .....................................................................................................
6

APPROVE (NET).........................................................................................
42%
DISAPPROVE (NET)...................................................................................
52
Global Strategy Group 12164 WI-01 Tracker Page 2/3

Q3.If the 2018 election for Congress were today and the candidates were
Republican Paul Ryan and a Democratic candidate, for which candidate
would you vote? [IF UNDECIDED] But if you had to decide today, which way
would you lean, for Republican Paul Ryan or the Democratic candidate? VOL:
Paul Ryan ....................................................................................................
36%
Lean Paul Ryan ...........................................................................................
6
Democrat .....................................................................................................
33
Lean Democrat ............................................................................................
5
(Don't know/Refused) ..................................................................................
20

RYAN (NET) ................................................................................................

42%
DEMOCRAT (NET) .....................................................................................
38

Q4. If the election for Congress were today and the candidates were
Republican Paul Ryan and Democrat Randy Bryce, for whom would you
vote? [IF UNDECIDED] But if you had to decide today, which way would you
lean? VOL:
Paul Ryan ....................................................................................................
42%
Lean Paul Ryan ...........................................................................................
4
Randy Bryce ................................................................................................
30
Lean Randy Bryce .......................................................................................
7
(Don't know/Refused) ..................................................................................
17

RYAN (NET) ................................................................................................

46%
BRYCE (NET)..............................................................................................
37

Now I'm going to read you some information about the candidates running for Congress in November 2018.

Paul Ryan is a Republican and fifth-generation Wisconsin native who serves as Speaker of the House of Representatives. A committed
conservative and public servant, Ryan has spent his life advocating for real solutions that will expand opportunity for all Americans.

Randy Bryce is a US Army veteran, cancer survivor, and union ironworker from Caledonia. He joined the race for Wisconsins 1st
Congressional District because hes frustrated with DC politicians who continue to put politics and party over people and wants to put the
priorities of hardworking Americans first.

Q5. Sometimes people change their minds in surveys like this and
sometimes they do not. If the election for Congress were today and the
candidates were Republican Paul Ryan and Democrat Randy Bryce, for
whom would you vote? [IF UNDECIDED] But if you had to decide today, VOL:
which way would you lean?
Paul Ryan ....................................................................................................
37%
Lean Paul Ryan ...........................................................................................
4
Randy Bryce ................................................................................................
39
Lean Randy Bryce .......................................................................................
5
(Don't know/Refused) ..................................................................................
15
RYAN (NET) ................................................................................................
41%
BRYCE (NET)..............................................................................................
44

Now I'm going to read you a statement from opponents of Paul Ryan, and afterwards get your opinion.

Opponents of Paul Ryan say Ryan pushed to pass a Republican health care bill through the house that would have removed protections
for pre-existing conditions, caused 23 million Americans to lose their health insurance, and increased health care costs for seniors. Ryan
shepherded the bill through Congress despite opposition from doctors, hospitals and patient advocacy groups, including the American
Medical Association, AARP, and the American Cancer Society.

Q6. Does this make you more or less likely to vote for Paul Ryan? [IF LESS
LIKELY] And would it make you much less likely or somewhat less likely to Much less likely...........................................................................................
42%
Somewhat less likely ..................................................................................
14
vote for Paul Ryan? More likely ...................................................................................................
11
VOL: (Would not affect my vote) ..........................................................................
25
VOL: (Don't know/Refused) .................................................................................
8

LESS LIKELY (NET) ...................................................................................

57%
Global Strategy Group 12164 WI-01 Tracker Page 3/3

Derived Age ['REFUSED' ASSIGNED AGE FROM FILE] 18-29 ...........................................................................................................

7%
30-44 ...........................................................................................................
20
45-54 ...........................................................................................................
23
55-64 ...........................................................................................................
24
65+...............................................................................................................
26
Refused .......................................................................................................
-

D102.What is the last grade of school or level of education you Did not complete high school ......................................................................
1%
completed? Graduated high school ................................................................................
21
Attended technical/vocational school ..........................................................
5
Attended some college but no degree.........................................................
18
Graduated two-year college with Associate's degree ................................. 11
Graduated four-year college with Bachelor's degree .................................. 27
Obtained Master's, PhD, or other professional degree ............................... 16
VOL: (Refused) .....................................................................................................
2

D105. When it comes to politics, do you generally think of yourself as: Very liberal ...................................................................................................
9%
Somewhat liberal .........................................................................................
19
Moderate .....................................................................................................
32
Somewhat conservative ..............................................................................
18
Very conservative ........................................................................................
18
VOL: (Refused) .....................................................................................................
5

LIBERAL (NET) ...........................................................................................

27%
CONSERVATIVE (NET) ..............................................................................
36

Derived Race ['OTHER' AND 'REFUSED' ASSIGNED RACE FROM FILE] Black/African-American ...............................................................................
2%
White/Caucasian .........................................................................................
93
Hispanic/Latino ............................................................................................
3
Asian-American ...........................................................................................
1
Native American ..........................................................................................
1
Other ............................................................................................................
-
VOL: (Refused) .....................................................................................................
-

Gender [BY OBSERVATION] Male .............................................................................................................

48%
Female.........................................................................................................
52

Region [FROM SAMPLE] Kenosha ......................................................................................................

19%
Racine .........................................................................................................
27
Rest .............................................................................................................
23
Milwaukee/Waukesha..................................................................................
31