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Voters in Wisconsins 1st Congressional District are deeply dissatisfied with national leadership. Trump and
Republicans failed attempts to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act have particularly soured voters,
many of whom are now inclined to support a Democratic challenger in 2018. A strong candidate with deep
ties to his community in southeastern Wisconsin and a desire to shake things up in Washington, like
Democrat Randy Bryce, has the potential to unseat Speaker Ryan next November. Key findings from Global
Strategy Groups recent poll of 401 likely 2018 General Election voters in Wisconsins 1st Congressional
District are as follows.
Speaker Paul Ryan is vulnerable in his home district and a strong challenger such as Democrat Randy Bryce
has the potential to unseat him. Ryan remains popular with voters in his district, who are favorable to him
personally (50% favorable/41% unfavorable). In a head-to-head against an unnamed Democratic challenger in
the 2018 election for Congress, however, Ryan maintains just a modest lead: 42% would vote for Ryan and 38%
for an unknown Democratic candidate. Head-to-head Ryan is below 50% (46% Ryan/37% Bryce), and when we
read short positive profiles introducing voters to both Speaker Ryan and Democratic candidate Randy Bryce,
Ryans lead dissolves. This lead, especially against an incumbent of Ryans tenure and position, indicates Bryce
could realistically unseat Ryan in 2018.
- Paul Ryan is a Republican and fifth-generation Wisconsin native who serves as Speaker of the House of
Representatives. A committed conservative and public servant, Ryan has spent his life advocating for real
solutions that will expand opportunity for all Americans. 41%
- Randy Bryce is a US Army veteran, cancer survivor, and union ironworker from Caledonia. He joined the race
for Wisconsins 1st Congressional District because hes frustrated with DC politicians who continue to put
politics and party over people and wants to put the priorities of hardworking Americans first. 44%
Shepherding an unpopular health care bill through Congress has hurt Ryans chance of re-election in his
district. After voters hear a short statement criticizing Ryan for pushing to pass a Republican health care bill that
would have removed protections for pre-existing conditions, caused 23 million Americans to lose their health
insurance, and increased health care costs for seniors despite opposition from health care professionals, a
majority of voters (57%) said they were less likely to vote for Paul Ryan, including 42% who said it made them
much less likely to vote for him.
S1. Are you at least 18 years old and registered to vote at [ADDRESS ON Yes ..............................................................................................................
100%
FILE]? No ................................................................................................................
-
Don't know/Refused ....................................................................................
-
S2. And as you may know, there will be an election for Congress, Definitely ......................................................................................................
79%
Governor, and other state offices in November of 2018. I know it is a long Probably ......................................................................................................
17
Chance 50-50 ..............................................................................................
4
time from now, but how likely are you to vote in the November 2018 Probably not ................................................................................................
-
general election - will you definitely vote, probably vote, are the chances Definitely not ................................................................................................
-
50-50, probably not vote, or definitely not vote? Don't know/Refused ....................................................................................
*
P1. No matter how you may be planning to vote this year, when it comes to Strong Democrat .........................................................................................
21%
politics, do you generally think of yourself as a strong Democrat, not very Weak Democrat ...........................................................................................
8
Independent / Closer to the Democrats.......................................................
12
strong Democrat, strong Republican, not very strong Republican, or Independent.................................................................................................
15
independent? [IF INDEPENDENT/DK/REFUSED] Do you think of yourself as Independent / Closer to the Republicans ....................................................
9
closer to the Democrats or the Republicans? Weak Republican ........................................................................................
9
Strong Republican .......................................................................................
21
VOL: (Don't know/Refused) ..................................................................................
4
I have a list of names, and I would like to get your opinion of each one. Just let me know if there's one you haven't heard of...[IF
FAVORABLE] And is your opinion very favorable or somewhat favorable? [IF UNFAVORABLE] And is your opinion very unfavorable or
somewhat unfavorable?
Q2. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as Approve - strongly .......................................................................................
22%
president? [IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE] And do you feel that way strongly, or Approve - somewhat....................................................................................
21
Disapprove - somewhat ...............................................................................
8
just somewhat? Disapprove - strongly...................................................................................
43
VOL: (Not sure) .....................................................................................................
6
APPROVE (NET).........................................................................................
42%
DISAPPROVE (NET)...................................................................................
52
Global Strategy Group 12164 WI-01 Tracker Page 2/3
Q3.If the 2018 election for Congress were today and the candidates were Paul Ryan ....................................................................................................
36%
Republican Paul Ryan and a Democratic candidate, for which candidate Lean Paul Ryan ...........................................................................................
6
Democrat .....................................................................................................
33
would you vote? [IF UNDECIDED] But if you had to decide today, which way Lean Democrat ............................................................................................
5
would you lean, for Republican Paul Ryan or the Democratic candidate? VOL: (Don't know/Refused) ..................................................................................
20
Q4. If the election for Congress were today and the candidates were Paul Ryan ....................................................................................................
42%
Republican Paul Ryan and Democrat Randy Bryce, for whom would you Lean Paul Ryan ...........................................................................................
4
Randy Bryce ................................................................................................
30
vote? [IF UNDECIDED] But if you had to decide today, which way would you Lean Randy Bryce .......................................................................................
7
lean? VOL: (Don't know/Refused) ..................................................................................
17
Now I'm going to read you some information about the candidates running for Congress in November 2018.
Paul Ryan is a Republican and fifth-generation Wisconsin native who serves as Speaker of the House of Representatives. A committed
conservative and public servant, Ryan has spent his life advocating for real solutions that will expand opportunity for all Americans.
Randy Bryce is a US Army veteran, cancer survivor, and union ironworker from Caledonia. He joined the race for Wisconsins 1st
Congressional District because hes frustrated with DC politicians who continue to put politics and party over people and wants to put the
priorities of hardworking Americans first.
Q5. Sometimes people change their minds in surveys like this and Paul Ryan ....................................................................................................
37%
sometimes they do not. If the election for Congress were today and the Lean Paul Ryan ...........................................................................................
4
Randy Bryce ................................................................................................
39
candidates were Republican Paul Ryan and Democrat Randy Bryce, for Lean Randy Bryce .......................................................................................
5
whom would you vote? [IF UNDECIDED] But if you had to decide today, VOL: (Don't know/Refused) ..................................................................................
15
which way would you lean?
RYAN (NET) ................................................................................................
41%
BRYCE (NET)..............................................................................................
44
Now I'm going to read you a statement from opponents of Paul Ryan, and afterwards get your opinion.
Opponents of Paul Ryan say Ryan pushed to pass a Republican health care bill through the house that would have removed protections
for pre-existing conditions, caused 23 million Americans to lose their health insurance, and increased health care costs for seniors. Ryan
shepherded the bill through Congress despite opposition from doctors, hospitals and patient advocacy groups, including the American
Medical Association, AARP, and the American Cancer Society.
Q6. Does this make you more or less likely to vote for Paul Ryan? [IF LESS
LIKELY] And would it make you much less likely or somewhat less likely to Much less likely...........................................................................................
42%
Somewhat less likely ..................................................................................
14
vote for Paul Ryan? More likely ...................................................................................................
11
VOL: (Would not affect my vote) ..........................................................................
25
VOL: (Don't know/Refused) .................................................................................
8
D102.What is the last grade of school or level of education you Did not complete high school ......................................................................
1%
completed? Graduated high school ................................................................................
21
Attended technical/vocational school ..........................................................
5
Attended some college but no degree.........................................................
18
Graduated two-year college with Associate's degree ................................. 11
Graduated four-year college with Bachelor's degree .................................. 27
Obtained Master's, PhD, or other professional degree ............................... 16
VOL: (Refused) .....................................................................................................
2
D105. When it comes to politics, do you generally think of yourself as: Very liberal ...................................................................................................
9%
Somewhat liberal .........................................................................................
19
Moderate .....................................................................................................
32
Somewhat conservative ..............................................................................
18
Very conservative ........................................................................................
18
VOL: (Refused) .....................................................................................................
5
Derived Race ['OTHER' AND 'REFUSED' ASSIGNED RACE FROM FILE] Black/African-American ...............................................................................
2%
White/Caucasian .........................................................................................
93
Hispanic/Latino ............................................................................................
3
Asian-American ...........................................................................................
1
Native American ..........................................................................................
1
Other ............................................................................................................
-
VOL: (Refused) .....................................................................................................
-