FinalExam2013:ModelanswersforpartB

Q26.Steffentoprovide

Q27.(a)Theresidualdevianceisdefinedas2(logLmaxlogLmod)whereLmaxisthemaximumvalueofthe
likelihoodunderthesaturatedmodel(everycovariatepatternhavingitsownprobability)andLmodisthe
maximumvalueofthelikelihoodunderthelogisticmodel.[2marks]

IfD1istheresidualdevianceofthelogisticmodelwithdf1degreesoffreedom,andD2istheresidual
devianceofthesubmodelwithdf2degreesoffreedom,thenwhenthesubmodelistrue,D2D1hasachi
squaredistributionwithdf2df1degreesoffreedom.[1mark]

WecalculateD2D1andcalculateapvalueastheareaunderthecurve(ofthechisquaredensitywith
df2df1degreesoffreedom)totherightofD2D1.Smallvaluesofthepvalueindicatethesubmodelis
notadequate.[1mark]

(b),D2D1=72.73954.428=18.311,df2df1=2[2marks]

1pchisq(18.311,2)=0.0002056372.[1mark]

Sincethepvalueissmall,thesubmodelisnotadequate.[1mark]

(c)SinceModel4hasthesmallestAIC,itispreferred.[2marks]

Model4wasarrivedatthroughstepwiseregression,startingatthenullmodel.[1mark]

Model5wasarrivedatthroughbackwardelimination,startingatthefullmodel[1mark]

(d)Bothquadraticshavemimimaintherangeofvaluesmeasured.[2marks]

Theminimumlogit(andhenceprobability)withtheothervariablesfixedisatageabout55,andthe
minimumlogit(andhenceprobability)withtheothervariablesfixedisatabout9yearsofeducation.
[2marks]

Thustheprobabilityofhavingatmostonechildissmallestforwomenintheir50s,andforwomenof
lessthan10yearsofeducation.(Inotherwords,younger,moreeducatedwomenhavealower
probabilityofhavingmorethanonechild)[2marks]

(e)No,becausethereisnointeractionbetweenageandduranduniv.[2marks].

Q27(a)Incontingencytables,wecaneitherassumethatthecountshaveamultinomialdistribution,
withcellprobabilities,orthatthecountshaveaPoissondistributionwithmeans.Thetwo
assumptionsareequivalent,withthesbeingproportionaltothemeans.[2marks]

Wecanexpressideaslikeconditionalindependenceeitherintermsofthes,orintermsofrestrictions
putonthes.Therestrictionsonthescanbeexpressedintermsofinteractionscalculatedfromthe
logmeans.Forexample,ina3dimensionalcontingencytableallfactorsindependentcorrespondstoall
interactionsbeingzero.[2marks]

AandBbeingconditionallyindependentgivenCcorrespondstotheABCandABinteractionsbeingzero,
i.e.tothemodelcounts~A*C+B*C.[2marks]

(b)Inanassociationgraph,factorscorrespondtovertices,andtwoverticesAandBarejoinedbyan
edgeifthereisaninteractionbetweenAandBinthemodel.[2marks]

Thegraph A

C
B

canrepresentthemodelcounts~A*B*Candalsothemodelcounts~(A+B+C)^2.[2marks]

(c)(i)Theanovaoutputindicatesthatthereareinteractionsbetweentempandprefandtempand
betweenprevandpref,butnotbetweentempandprev.[1mark]

Thus,themodelwheretempandprevareconditionallyindependentgivenprefseemsindicated.
[1mark]

Theassociationgraphis

prev

pref temp

[1mark]

(ii)Therelationshipseemstobethattempandprevareconditionallyindependentgivenpref.[1mark]

Fromtheanovainvolvingpredandprefalone,thereisastrongrelationshipbetweenpreferenceand
previoususe.(p=5.515e06).[2marks]
Thisrelationshipisthesameforbothlevelsoftemp(asthehomogeneousassociationmodelseemsto
holdhere).[1mark]

(iii)WecouldfitalogisticregressionwithresponseY(havingvalue1ifrespondentprefersbrandXand
0otherwise)andcovariatestempandprev.[3marks]