Economics, Management, and Financial Markets

Volume 7(4), 2012, pp. 3441, ISSN 1842-3191

WALKING UNDER A LADDER: SUPERSTITION AND RITUAL

AS A COGNITIVE BIAS IN MANAGEMENT DECISION MAKING

YOSHIFUMI HARADA
yoshifumi@unimap.edu.my
University Malaysia Perlis
MURRAY HUNTER
murrayhunter58@gmail.com
University Malaysia Perlis

ABSTRACT. This article looks at superstition as an influence upon decision making.

The article briefly describes the phenomenon of superstition, its probable origins and
affects on assumptions, before explaining how superstitions work into our mental
maps. Finally three categories of superstition are defined.
JEL Classification: M11, O32, D7

Keywords: cognitive bias, heuristics, superstition, decision making, culture,

assumptions, mental maps.

1. Introduction

As we go about our lives, we are unconsciously immersed within the cul-

tural fabric of the society we live in. To a certain degree what we think and
do is greatly influenced by the values, beliefs, and meanings adopted by that
society. Embedded within our belief systems are a wide range of customs,
rituals, taboos, and behavioral codes that have basis upon superstition.
Superstition conceals hidden motives at a social level that cover societys
hidden traumas. In the Freudian sense, superstition could be considered a
social defense mechanism, as a means to deal with fears and anxieties that
society faces. For example in hunter-gather times women were forbidden from
leaving their homes when their men went hunting in order for the man to con-
centrate on the job at hand without worrying about the women left behind.1
Superstitions are based on flawed causalities where rationality and reason-
ing has been abandoned. Superstition can be seen as extended metaphors,
transmitted through stories that people tell, in attempt to cover up irrationality.

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These stories emerge as timeless myths that become culturally patterned
remedies for something that is not understood and has its basis upon events
and history, a universal acumen of culture.2
Many superstitions derive basis in ancient science and remain as rem-
nants such as the evolution of astrology.3 Superstition becomes a tool to deal
with what we cannot deal with or what we dont know how to deal with,
and as a perceived means to achieve outcomes we desire. Consequently,
superstitions have no basis in todays science but still appeal as a remedy to
cope with some fear, anxiety, hope, or aspiration.4
As such superstitions become symbolically real as a solution to a social
problem. And through reinforced repeated behavior, symbolic reality turns into
objective reality, where objects, people, and situations attract new meanings.
The nature of the object itself manifests a superstition, hence the built up
mythology around ladders and broken mirrors, etc. Thus superstition infers a
belief in some form of esoterically, magical, or supernatural causality where
one event is the cause of another event without any necessary rational or
physical process linking the two events. 5 Thus the realm of superstition
encompasses specific socialized behaviors, belief in luck, prophecies, spir-
itual beings, and that future events can be foretold by unrelated rituals and
ceremonies.6
Superstition is an anchor to the past, transmitted through our collective
consciousness by culture. History, education, film, media and religion all
contribute to both maintaining and modifying a national narrative passed
along from generation to generation.
New superstitions continually evolve in our national narratives to handle
what we fear through the manifestation of new beliefs. For example the
belief in a weapon system that will destroy asteroids on a collision course
with the earth could be construed as a recently evolved superstition. There
is no scientific validity to this belief, but the idea portrayed through films
Like Meteor, Deep Impact, and Armageddon and the Reagan Strategic
Defense Initiative known commonly as Star Wars during the 1980s led to
the belief that the technology exists.
More controversially the saga of 9/11 can be looked at from the para-
digm of myth and superstition. Fear was generated by this tragic event, and
the trauma and fear was added by the 7/7 attacks in London, the railway
bombing in Spain, and Taj Mahal hotel attack in Mumbai, India, reinforcing
recurring messages to society sent through the media. This occurred until
rationality disappeared and a mythical enemy arose that must be fought. Thus
society both intellectually and emotionally invested in the superstition of an
organized enemy willing to stop at nothing to take away the life that
society currently knows and enjoys, and to accept a hero to fight this evil.
And with any struggle, sacrifices are needed. Thus according to Martin Day

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in his book The Many Meanings of Myth, the subsequent actions reduced
feelings of chaos and uncertainty, and brought a new sense of unity to
society.7 This allowed governments an almost unhindered ability to take what
measures they wanted to in order to fight this evil enemy.
From the decision making aspect, superstition skews thinking into arche-
typal patterning that is reinforced by a generally accepted cultural beliefs.
This is manifested by myths, stories, taboos, ceremonies, and rituals such
as wearing something oil, something borrowed, and something blue at a
wedding ceremony, or touching wood in the hope of a particular outcome.
With society following these rituals and other practices, fallacy is embedded
into our cognitive processes, influencing our daily and strategic decision
making.
Superstition creates behavioral boundaries through taboos which remain
unquestioned and something we unconsciously learn. This is what can be
called superstition bias.

2. Superstition Is Universal

Although superstition is an important aspect of culture, the positivist culture

theorists Fons Trompenaars and Geert Hofstede didnt discuss the subject
at any length or provide any methodology to measure it. In depth analysis
of the meaning of superstition in society had been left to anthropologists
and ethnographers like Clifford Geertz and Margaret Mead, and psycho-
analysts like Sigmund Freud and Carl Jung. Superstition has also only being
scantly covered in organizational literature, and never mentioned in man-
agement literature, leaving a very limited research base concerning the
impact of superstition on beliefs and decision making in organization and
management.8
Nevertheless, superstition is universal around the world which can be
seen through a sampling of examples below;
In Japan and some parts of China the word four is pronounced shi
the same as the word for death. Consequently just like number 13 in the
west, the 4th, 14th, and 24th floor, etc, are skipped in some build-
ings. Gifts consisting of four pieces are avoided probably with the fear
that this could be an unlucky omen. The number 8 is considered lucky
because its pronunciation is similar to the word prosperity, therefore car
number plates with 8 and multiples of 8 are highly desired for good luck.
Consequently, many consumers are willing to buy products at a premium
because of lucky colors and 8 rather than 10 units in the packet because of
superstition.9

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 In India and across Asia it is unlucky to get a haircut on Tuesdays.
There are numerous taboos about what activities, such as moving into new
premises can be done on what days.
Throughout the Asian region fortune tellers and astrologers are com-
monly sort out for advice before making big decisions.
Feng shui, a Chinese system of heavenly geometry is commonly used
in deciding building aspects and layouts where practitioners play the role of
a legitimizer and comforter in strategic decision making.10
Iranian politics appears to be influenced by divine supernatural ex-
periences which lead to the belief that policies and actions are divinely
sanctioned.11
It was reported that Pakistans President Asif Ali Zardari has been slaugh-
tering a black goat every-day since becoming president in an attempt to
ward off the evil eye.12
People dont make decisions based upon their true experience.13 Many
stock and mutual traders believe that particular superstitions have some
influence on their trading. A special algorithmic trading system based on
superstitions has been launched in the United States.14
Many Thai people believe they are protected by an amulet imprinted
from a selected temple, including prime ministers,15 in a similar way some
Christians may wear a Saint Christophers medal for a sense of protection
from injury.
These few examples above just confirm that people in business and public
office have their own little idiosyncrasies and superstitions such as favorite
ties, pen or suit to wear to meetings, have a particular ornament in the
office, or read the daily horoscope before leaving home. Research has shown
that adhering to a regime of superstitions may have something to do with a
belief in self efficacy,16 and thus superstition in business decision making is
skewed to the positive. Superstition in the case of business may act as a
confidence bias, and reinforce persistence.17

3. Superstition Influences our Assumptions

and Shapes Our Mental Maps

As superstition is a cultural phenomenon, it must work its way into our

assumptions in order to integrate into mental maps and shape our values.
Then superstition or the assumptions behind our superstition will act as
heuristics that assist in solving our basic problems. Some of the basic
assumptions we may carry over into mental maps from superstitions may
include:

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 The nature of reality and truth: Some of the basic Western super-
stitions like black cats crossing your path and walking under a ladder carry
the assumption of care within the environment. These may have evolved
from religious beliefs in maintaining the Holy Trinity and black cats being
associated with witchcraft in medieval times. Some superstitions like making
a wish on a wishbone, carrying a rabbits foot or crossing ones fingers
may give a person some form of illusion of control over the environment.18
The nature of time: Superstitions such as bad luck comes in threes is a
time based caution to be vigilant in the environment in the future. Friday
the 13th along with many Asian superstitions about times concern tempting
fate at certain periods.
The nature of space: Many people feel that if an object has come into
contact with a person with some form of sickness like HIV or cancer, they
are loathed to touch it, and avoid direct contact.19
The nature of human nature: Making a wish on a wishbone, carrying
a rabbits foot or crossing ones fingers carry the metaphor of hope and
pursuing aspiration. The rabbits foot may have been based upon Celtic folk-
lore in England, the wishbone with early medicine-men and crossing
fingers with the Christian faith.

4. Conclusion

Superstition is a coping mechanism for overwhelming feelings of fear and

anxiety, or hope. In business it may also be a means of developing con-
fidence and a sense of self efficacy. As we have seen, superstitious beliefs
work deep down within our core assumptions and can be defined as social
heuristics. Superstition as a heuristic is intertwined without our knowledge
structure and therefore becomes a factor in the assessments, judgments and
decisions we make. They are part of the decision process.20
On the negative side, heuristics can become cognitive biases. Cognitive
biases are errors of judgment based on misconceptions of the facts, memory
errors, probability errors, motivational factors, and/or social influences. These
are the basis of irrational reasoning which can lead to all sorts of mistakes
in judgment.21
Hood postulated that superstitions came out of our sense of duality where
we tend to seek external solutions to our problems and apportion external
reasons for success and failure, etc. Thus objects take on a certain vitalism
through our projections upon them of our fears, anxieties, and aspirations.22
Finally we postulate that there could be three types of superstition, from
the perspective of influence upon decision making.

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 The first type of superstition has only a marginal influence and only
taken half seriously by the majority of people in society. These are folklore
superstitions like luck coming from holding a four leaf clover, or the number
13 being an unlucky number. These superstitions may only be half
believed or taken as a grain of salt, so as to say. Even though many of
these little superstitions are seen for what they are, the taboos are often
avoided consciously. For example, in many buildings in Western countries
there is often no 13th floor. The 13th floor may be designated 12A or
just missed altogether. This however may not directly reflect any superstition
on the part of a building owner, but more as a measure taken so as not to
make any potential tenants hesitant to lease or rent space in the building.
The second type of superstition is what could be called pseudo science.
Pseudo science encompasses beliefs that may be portrayed as being scien-
tifically based, but are really based on anecdote, rather than strict empirical
based research.23 Such practices that could be considered pseudo science
may include astrology, aromatherapy, Reiki, and homeopathy. Even many
management ideas portrayed as positivist theories without empirical research
support could also fall into this category.24 As our knowledge evolves, many
ideas we once had become redundant and replaced with new knowledge.
However some people tend to cling to old ideas, which by definition become
superstitions.
The third type of superstitions are those that as we have seen, are em-
bedded deep in our assumptions, shaping our mental maps manifesting
themselves as heuristics in the way we think and make decisions. These are
dangerous when we are not aware of the real influence these superstitions
have upon our thinking. The only way we can really see the influence of
superstition upon a person is through very carefully analyzing a persons
narrative to see the assumptions behind what they think, say and do. This
can sometimes be picked up in narrative, as phrases like I think, I feel,
I believe, I reckon or it is unlikely that, etc.25 These deep set super-
stitions may also manifest through artifacts and how they are used, like Saint
Christophers medals, Buddha statues, or Quranic calligraphy,26 and the
rituals and ceremonies a person may perform, and understanding the real
reasons the person is actually performing them.
The problem with any categorization, like the one above, is that what
could be truth and knowledge today, may be superstition in the future.
Peoples categorization of their superstitions may vary according to the in-
dividual depending upon the belief commitment to particular superstitions
they may have.
Attitudes to superstition are rapidly changing, however many superstitions
are subtly embedded within our assumptions, shape our mental maps, and

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manifest as unconscious biases through heuristics upon our thoughts and
decisions.
Superstition is a primeval aspect of our consciousness, an archetypal
hangover from our primitive beginnings.27 Superstition is the basis of many
rituals and ceremonies creating part of a persons nexus with society. As
we have seen superstition is still very much used as a tool by institution and
government playing on the primeval origins of our psych as modern manifes-
tation of witches and warlocks, good and evil, playing on fear and pander-
ing to the need of survival and protection.28
The authors believe that superstition will receive much more attention
from management researchers in the future.

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Yoshifumi Harada, Murray Hunter

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Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without
permission.