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Company Reg No. 193500026Z
in August from 44.7 in July, on consensus expectations of pattern of USD selling. The EUR/USD rallied as high as
45.0. This compares to 50.3 in August 2009. This report 1.3228 following the FOMC decision and a session low of
indicates a modest improvement in the 6-month outlook as 1.3074, before closing at 1.3177 from 1.3220. The GBP/
summer doldrum conditions prevail throughout July and into USD fell to a low of 1.5710 and session high of 1.5910
the first week of August. before settling at 1.5856 from 1.5892. The USD/JPY fell to a
session low of 85.17 from 85.93 following the decision and
n US non-farm productivity fell in 2Q this year by an annual a session high of 86.254. Yesterday, The BOJ kept their rates
rate of 0.9% after rising at a revised 3.9% in 1Q. Unit unchanged yesterday but the BOJ Gov. Masaaki Shirakawa
labour costs edged up at a 0.2% annual rate after shrinking expressed concern about the damage from a strong JPY but
at a revised 3.7% in 1Q 2010. indicated the BOJ does not have plans yet to alter course on
monetary policy to stem the JPY gains.
n Today’s key economic data releases include: UK Claimant
Count Rate (Jul) (consensus 4.5%); UK Jobless Claims n US Treasuries rallied after the Fed indicated their intention
Change (Jul) (consensus -17.0K); UK ILO Unemployment of future bond buying activity to help support the US
Rate (Jun) (consensus 7.8%); UK BOE Quarterly Inflation economic recovery. Gains were the most pronounced in
Report (0930 GMT); and US Trade Balance (Jun) Treasurys maturing in the next 5 to 7 years, after the Fed
(consensus -42.3bnUSD). announced that it will reinvest the proceeds from expiring
mortgage-backed securities into Treasurys maturing in the
n US equities fell yesterday following the Fed statement next 2 to 10 years. The 10-year yields fell 7bpds to 2.76%
which signals a slow US recovery and signs of slowing and the 2-year was unchanged at 0.53%.
demand in China. The DJIA dropped 54.50 points (0.51%),
to 10644.25. The Nasdaq dropped 28.52 (1.24%), to n Gold prices settled lower at $1196.2/oz from $1200.7/oz
2277.17. The S&P slipped 6.73 (0.60%), to 1121.06. in line with the general trend before the US FOMC
statement was released. But intra-day gold prices rose after
n Intra-day the USD fell following the release of the FOMC the Fed announced a stimulative portfolio shift and left its
statement which acknowledged a slowdown in the pace benchmark rate unchanged. Oil prices pared early losses
of the US recovery and the move to prevent the Fed yesterday but still managed to settle above $80 a barrel after
balance sheet from shrinking. The USD was strengthening the Federal Reserve's announcement. Despite a weaker
going into the FOMC decision, but the lack of any significant USD, the Sep prompt-month crude oil futures contract closed
surprise to the statement prompted a return to the previous lower at $80.25/bbl from $81.48/bbl.
URL: www.uob.com.sg/research
Email: EcoTreasury.Research@UOBgroup.com
Global Markets
Wednesday, 11 August 2010
p3
Economic Indicators
SG Time Indicators Mth Actual UOB Forecast Mkt Forecast Previous
10/08
1128 JPY Official Cash Rate Aug 10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10%
1400 Gmn CPI m/m Jul F 0.3 - 0.2 0.2%
1400 Gmn CPI y/y Jul F 1.2 - 1.1 1.1%
1400 Gmn WPI m/m Jul -0.3 - - -0.2%
1400 Gmn WPI y/y Jul 5.3 - - 5.1%
1445 Fr Manufacturing Prod m/m Jun -1.3 - 0.4 0.6%
1445 Fr Manufacturing Prod y/y Jun 5.0 - 7.0 7.8%
1445 Fr Ind Prod m/m Jun -1.7 - -0.2 1.9%
1445 Fr Ind Prod y/y Jun 5.7 - 7.3 8.5%
1630 UK DCLG UK Hse Pr y/y Jun 9.9 - 9.8 10.6%
2030 US Nonfarm Productivity 2Q P -0.9 - 0.1 3.9%
2030 US Unit Labor Costs 2Q P 0.2 - 1.5 -3.7%
2200 US Wholesale Inventories Jun 0.1 - 0.4 0.5%
2200 US IBD/TIPP Econ Optimism Aug 43.6 - 45.0 44.7
11/08
0215 USD Fed Funds Rate Aug 10 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25%
0500 US ABC Consumer Confidence Aug 8 -47 - - -50
0701 UK Nat’wide Consumer Confidence Jul - 61 63
2030 US Trade Bal Jun - -42.3 -42.3b
12/08
0200 US Monthly Budget Statement Jul - 169.0 180.7b
1700 EZ Ind Prod sa m/m Jun - 0.6 1.0%
1700 EZ Ind Prod wda y/y Jun - 9.3 9.6%
2030 US Import Pr Ind m/m Jul - 0.3 -1.3%
2030 US Import Pr Ind y/y Jul - 5.4 4.5%
2030 US Initial Jobless Claims Aug 7 - 465 479k
2030 US Continuing Claims Jul 31 - 4540 4537k
13/08
1400 Gmn GDP sa q/q 2Q P - 1.3 0.2%
1400 Gmn GDP wda y/y 2Q P - 2.4 1.6%
1400 Gmn GDP nsa y/y 2Q P - 2.6 1.7%
1700 EZ Trade Bal Jun - 1.0 -3.4b
1700 EZ GDP sa q/q 2Q A - 0.7 0.2%
1700 EZ GDP sa y/y 2Q A - 1.4 0.6%
2030 US CPI m/m Jul - 0.2 -0.1%
2030 US CPI y/y Jul - 1.2 1.1%
2030 US CPI Ex Food & Energy m/m Jul - 0.1 0.2%
2030 US CPI Ex Food & Energy y/y Jul - 0.9 0.9%
2030 US Adv Retails Sales Jul - 0.5 -0.5%
2030 US Retail Sales less autos Jul - 0.3 -0.1%
2030 US Retail Sales ex auto & gas Jul - 0.2 0.1%
2155 US U. of Michigan Confidence Aug P - 69.2 67.8
2200 US Business Inventories Jun - 0.2 0.1%
URL: www.uob.com.sg/research
Email: EcoTreasury.Research@UOBgroup.com