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Arash Farnoosh
Demographic growth
The worlds population was 2.5 billion in 1950. At present, there are over 7 billion people on earth, and by
2050, there will be over nine billion people according to UN projections.
As population rises, global passenger mobility and global freight volumes may triple by 2050 according to the
OECD.
Urbanization
In addition to this demographic factor there is also the specific phenomenon of urbanization on the
worldwide scale. In 1950, only one out of three people in the world lived in an urban area; they are now one
out of two, and they will be nearly two out of three in 2030, that is to say in almost 15 years. This has a
strong impact on the development of transportation needs for both public and private transit.
Economic growth
The countries that have achieved high and stable levels of economic development usually have high car
ownership levels. The motorization rates are especially high in North America, Australia, Europe and Japan
but it is not the case in Africa. The global average motorization rate is about 170 vehicles / 1000 inhabitants.
The transport of goods will also increase. One must not forget that the bulk of world trade is carried by sea:
80% of goods pass through shipping. The major shipping routes of world trade today are the Panama Canal,
Suez Canal, the Strait of Malacca and Sunda and South East Asia. Air freight accounts for the rest of the
world trade. Air freight accounts for the rest of the world trade.
A bilateral trade flow of goods is the trade volume between two countries. The observation of projected
bilateral trade flows in twenty years time shows that there will be a strong development of the Asian region
especially in China.
The various sectors will have expanding needs. This is the case for power generation, petrochemicals and
building. But transport is expected to remain an important driver for oil demand, which is forecast to grow
by 25% by 2035.
The demand for personal mobility is of course the main driver for future oil demand. But this mobility will
continue to rely mainly on diesel (driven by the rise of diesel use in Heavy Duty Vehicles) and gasoline.
Costs of exploration & production are rapidly increasing, and no one predicts that the oil price will decline
any time soon. The use of oil might be here to stay and this dependency is a major challenge for the
transport sector in the 21st century.