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Extreme weather events-its

categories and impacts

A K. SRIVASTAVA

IMD, Pune
OUTLINE

DEFINITION AND APPROACH OF ANALYSIS

OBSERVED AND PROJECTED TREND


ACROSS GLOBE

OBSERVED TREND OVER INDIA


DEFINITION
Severe / Extreme weather phenomenon or
hydro-meteorological phenomenon, of varying
duration, with risk of causing major damage,
serious social disruption and loss of human life.

This necessitates measures to be taken for


minimizing loss, mitigation and avoidance, and
requires detailed information about the
phenomenon (location, area or region affected,
time, duration, intensity and evolution).
SOURCE / REFERENCE

IPCC REPORT 2014


ANNUAL CLIMATE SUMMARY (INDIA)
WMO STATEMENT ON CLIMATE
RESULTS OF RESEARCH PAPERS
Updated analyses of temperature and precipitation extreme indices since the
beginning of the twentieth century The HadEX2 dataset by M. G. Donat, L. V.
Alexander, H. Yang, I. Durre, R. Vose, R. J. H. Dunn, K. M. Willett,E. Aguilar, M. Brunet,1
J. Caesar, B. Hewitson, C. Jack, A. M. G. Klein Tank,A. C. Kruger, J. Marengo, T. C.
Peterson, M. Renom, C. Oria Rojas, M. Rusticucci,J. Salinger, A. S. Elrayah,S. S. Sekele,
A. K. Srivastava, B. Trewin, C. Villarroel,L. A. Vincent, P. Zhai, X. Zhang, and S.
Kitching - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2013, Vol.118, 1-16 ,
doi;10.1002/jgrd.50150.

Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change: An Assessment by Thomas R. Knutson, John


McBride, Johnny Chan, Kerry Emanuel, Greg Holland, Chris Landsea, Isaac Held, James
Kossin, A. K. Srivastava, and Masato Sugi , Nature Geoscience, March 2010, Vol 3.,
pp. 157-163.

Observational analysis of Heavy rainfall during southwest monsoon over Indian


region, Pulak Guhathakurta, in High-Impact Weather Events over the SAARC Region
(Eds. Ray, K., Mohapatra, M., Bandyopadhyay, B.K., Rathore, L.S.), Co published by
Springer with Central Publishing Company, New Delhi,2014, pp203-222.

Observed changes in southwest monsoon rainfall over India during 19012011 P.


Guhathakurta, ,M. Rajeevan, D. R. Sikka and Ajit Tyagi, Int. J. Climatol, Published online
in Wiley Online Library, DOI: 10.1002/joc.4095, 2014.
CLASSIFICATION

Extreme weather events may be


classified into following two
categories:

Geophysical
Meteorological
GEOPHYSICAL

EARTHQUAKES

TSUNAMI

LANDSLIDES
Meteorological
Heavy rain/ Flood
Extreme temperature
Cyclones
Snow storms
Dust/sand storms
Strong wind/ wind gusts
Hail
Lightning
Tornadoes
CATEGORIZATION
CALCULATE NORMAL OF SERIES

CALCULATE VRIABILITY OF
SERIES

FIX CRITERIA BASED ON THE


NORMAL & VARIABILITY
Percentile temperature indices
Cool nights (Tmin < 10th%)
Cool days (Tmax < 10th%)
Warm nights (Tmin > 90th%)
Warm days (Tmax > 90th%)
Warm spell duration indicator
Annual count of 6 days in row Tmax > 90th)
Cold spell duration indicator
Annual count of 6 days in row Tmin < 10th)
Precipitation indices
Max 1-day precipitation amount
Max 5-day precipitation amount
Simple daily intensity index
Number of heavy precipitation days 10 mm
Number of very heavy precipitation days 20mm
Number of days above nn mm
Consecutive dry days
Consecutive wet days
Very wet days 95th percentile
Extremely wet days 99th percentile
Annual total wet-day precipitation
IN WARMING ENVIRONMENT
MOST OF THE EXTREME EVENTS
ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE

THEN WHAT IS STATUS OF GLOBAL WARMING AND ITS FUTURE TREND


Global temperature has risen by
0.850C, over a period from 1880 to
2012 with uncertainty of 0.200 C.

Human influence on the climate system is clear,


and recent anthropogenic emissions of green-
house gases are the highest in history.

Recent climate changes have had widespread


impacts on human and natural systems
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since
the 1950s, many of the observed changes are
unprecedented over decades to millennia.

The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of


snow and ice have diminished, and sea level has risen.

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have increased since the


pre-industrial era, driven largely by economic and population growth,
and are now higher than ever.

This has led to atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide,


methane and nitrous oxide that are unprecedented in at least the last
800,000 years.

Their effects, together with those of other anthropogenic drivers, have


been detected throughout the climate system and are extremely likely
to have been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the
mid-20th century.
Changes in many extreme weather and climate events
have been observed since about 1950.

Some of these changes have been linked to human


influences, including a decrease in cold temperature
extremes, an increase in warm temperature extremes, an
increase in extreme high sea levels and an increase in the
number of heavy precipitation events in a number of
regions.
Decadal Global combined Surface air temperature
over land and sea surface temperature (0 C)
WMO
Survey of 56
countries
Decadal global Precipitation anomalies
(mm)
Mean cumulative specific mass balance
(Source World Glacier monitoring service)
Northern hemispheric snow cover (June)
(Source: Rutgers global snow laboratory USA)
FUTURE PROJECTIONS
The global mean surface temperature change for the
period 20162035 relative to 19862005 is similar for the
four RCPs and will likely be in the range 0.3C to 0.7C
(medium confidence).

Relative to 18501900, global surface temperature


change for the end of the 21st century (20812100) is
projected to likely exceed 1.5C for RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and
RCP8.5 (high confidence).

Warming is likely to exceed 2C for RCP6.0 and RCP8.5


(high confidence), more likely than not to exceed 2C for
RCP4.5 (medium confidence), but unlikely to exceed 2C
for RCP2.6 (medium confidence).
SUMMARY OF FUTURE TREND

Surface temperature is projected to rise over the 21st


century under all assessed emission scenarios.

It is very likely that heat waves will occur more often and
last longer, and that extreme precipitation events will
become more intense and frequent in many regions.

The ocean will continue to warm and acidify, and global


mean sea level to rise.
OBSERVED STATUS OF
TEMPERATURE (INDIA)
All India annual mean temperature anomaly (1901-2014)
All India annual maximum temperature anomaly (1901-2014)
All India annual minimum temperature anomaly (1901-2014)
HEAT WAVES OVER INDIA
Definition of HW/SHW used in this study (IMD, 2002)
1.Heat wave need not be considered till maximum temperature of the stations
reaches at least 40 C for plains and at least 30 C for Hilly regions

2.When normal maximum temperature of a station is less than or equal to 40 C

a.Heat wave : Departure from normal is 5 C to 6 C

b.Severe heat wave : Departure from normal is 7 C or more

3.When normal maximum temperature of a station is more than 40 C

a. Heat wave Departure from normal is 4 C to 5 C

b.Severe heat wave Departure from normal is 6 C or more

4.When actual maximum temperature remains 45 C or more irrespective of


normal max. temperature Heat wave should be declared.

5.For Coastal stations if the maximum temperature of 40 C is reached Heat


wave may be declared.
PRECIPITATION
Slope for all India rainfall during the period 1901-50, 1951 -2011 and for
the period 1901-2011.

PERIOD SLOPE
JUNE JULY AUG SEP MONSOON
1901-1950 0.50 1.33 0.32 0.63 2.79
All India 1951-2011 0.10 -0.49 -0.40 -0.21 -1.00
1901-2011 0.00 -0.07 0.01 -0.03 -0.09

decreasing 90% significant increasing 90%significant increasing 99% significant


Trends in the monthly rainfall for the 36 meteorological sub-divisions of India for
the period 1901-2010.
Trends in the frequencies of different rainfall events over the states during the
southwest monsoon season (June- September) (1901-2010)
Trends in the annual frequencies of different rainfall events over the states (1901-
2010)
Decadal variability of extreme values (cm) for 25 years return period for the
decades since 1951.

1951-60
1961-70 1971-80

1981-90 1991-2000 2001-2010


Percentage frequencies of extreme values (cm) for 25-year return period in
different range for the decades since 1951.
Increase/decrease in one day extreme rainfall (cm) in 100 years
Results of analysis (based on
percentile) of global temperature and
precipitation data
Data analysis highlights widespread significant changes in
temperature extremes consistent with the warming, especially for
those indices derived from daily minimum temperature over
the whole 110 years of record but with stronger trends in more
recent decades.
Seasonal results showed significant warming in all seasons but
more so in the colder months.
Precipitation indices also showed widespread and significant
trends, but the changes were much more spatially heterogeneous
compared with temperature changes.
However results indicated more areas with significant
increasing trends in extreme precipitation amounts, intensity
and frequency than areas with decreasing trends.
Trends (in annual days per decade, shown as maps) for annual series of
percentile temperature indices for (left) 19012010 and (right) 19512010 for (a)
cool nights (TN10p),
Trends (in annual days per decade, shown as maps) for annual series
percentile temperature indices for (left) 19012010 and (right) 19512010 for
warm nights (TN90p),
Trends (in annual days per decade, shown as maps) for annual series of
percentile temperature indices for (left) 19012010 and (right) 19512010 for (a)
cool nights (TX90p),
Trend maps and global average time series for annual indices, (a) coldest night
(TNn) in C.
Trend maps and global average time series for annual indices in coldest day
(TXn) in C
Trend maps and global average time series for annual indices: warmest night
(TNx) in C,
Trend maps and global average time series for annual indices: hottest day (TXx) in
C.
Decadal trends and global average time series for annual indices. (a) Number of
heavy precipitation days (R10) in days, (b) contribution from very wet days
(R95pTOT) in %, .
SYSTEMS FORMING OVER THE
NORTH INDIAN OCEAN
CYCLONES IN WARMING ENVIRONMENT
Findings conclude that it remains uncertain whether past
changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the
variability expected from natural causes.

However, green house warming will cause the globally


averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to increase by 2-
11% by 2100 while globally averaged frequency of
tropical cyclones is likely to decrease by 6-34% by 2100.

Higher resolution modelling studies typically project


substantial increase in the frequency of most intense
cyclones.
IMPACT
Impact of extreme events during 20012010 compared with 1991
2000: total number of lives lost. The change in per cent from
19912000 to 20012010 is shown above the bars.
Global Assessment Report, the average population
exposed to flooding every year increased by 114 per cent
globally between 1970 and 2010, a period in which the
worlds population increased by 87 per cent from 3.7
billion to 6.9 billion.

The number of people exposed to severe storms almost


tripled in cyclone-prone areas, increasing by 192 per cent,
in the same period.

While the risk of death and injury from storms and floods
declined, the vulnerability of property increased.

This is because the expansion of socio-economic and


infrastructural assets led to an increase in the amount and
value of property exposed to weather and climate
extremes.
Thank You

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