The 172 year cycle

The 172 year cycle is one of the more important ones. Historically, its associated with
financial collapse, colder climate, civil wars, social unrest, and epidemics. This cycle
topped in 2007, along with the market.

Were also at the end of an even larger 516 year cycle (a climate cycle, which also has
implications for major societal changes).

For example, since 1998, the climate on Earth has been cooling. And yet the United
Nations is yelling from the rooftops that the world is going to burn up. However,
governments (and associated bodies) are always last in to an ideathe operate on
consensus of the herd. This horse has left the barn long ago.

This idea of man-made global warming becomes very hard to swallow when you realize
it was warmer on Earth during the Medieval Period and that the current climate scenario
was forecast by Dr. Raymond Wheeler decades ago. In fact, since 1998, the Earths
climate has been cooling off and it has certainly becoming drier.

Dr. Wheeler writes in his book, Climate: The Key to Understanding Business Cycles
(With a Forecast of Trends Into the Twenty-First Century),

The cold phases of the cycle are dominated by various kinds of civil strikecivil wars,
class struggles between rich and poor and between conservatives and liberals, religious
wares, democratic reforms, emancipations, broadening of the franchise, colonization,
migration, and piracy.

To that end, Dr. Wheeler developed the Drought Clock, a forecasting tool that
predicted a turn cooler around the year 2000.

But lets thumb back through a list of most recent 172 year cycles to get an idea of their
regularity and similarities across the board. Im assuming the top of this latest 172 cycle
to be the year 2007, the top of the US stock market (or beginning of the Great
Recession).

1835
 The largest depression of the 19th
century beginning in May, 1935,
which became the longest and deepest
bear market in US history to that
point. Its referred to as the Great
Repudiation Depression. It was also
very cold and dry (You can click on
the chart at left to enlarge it).Wheat
prices topped in 1807 (one 19 year
panic cycle early). In 1834, climate
turned suddenly dry and a large
depression began. There was a brief
respite as it suddenly became wetter
the next year, but dryness set in again
and The Panic of 1837 began.Banks
collapsed, businesses failed, prices
declined, and thousands of workers
lost their jobs. Unemployment may
have been as high as 25% in some
locales.

1663

If you go back a further 172 years,

you hit a major depression in
England, followed by the Blubonic
Plague in 1664 (one year later), and
the Great Fire of London one year
after that (1665), which burned the
city almost to the ground.It began an
89 year bear market and was very
cold and dry the Little Ice Age they
called it. It began 25 years of
deflation and was the most severe
depression in 500 years. But then, this
also marked the larger 516 climate
year cycle end.

1491
 172 years earlier. This depression hit
about 8 years later than scheduled.
However, the bear market lasted 20
years. You can see by the climate
chart to the left that it became cold
and dry.In China, rice prices peaked
in 1498 after a 50 year rise in prices.
A twenty year bear market followed.
Historians have estimated that
beginning from early 1500, in only 50
years the population of Peru and
Mexico fell from 60 to 10 million; in
the latter country, in one century, the
populations fell from an initial 10
million to only 2 million. The plague
was the culprit.The great epidemic of
1499-1500, in London and apparently
also in the country opened the sixteen
century a great pestilence
throughout all England. In newly
found America, smallpox all but
decimate the Native American
population beginning about 1500.

1320

1280 to 1305 was cold and dry and

the relative dryness lasted through
about 1330. This period is made
difficult by a 100 year absense of
data, but we do know that the Black
Death raged from 1347 1453 and
killed one third of Europeans.Wheat
prices peaked in 1316.The low came
23 years later, in 1339. Prices bumped
along the low for another 131 years.

1148
 This cold period was of an unusually
long period (1135-1185). There were
lots of civil wars raging (a long civil
war in Scotland, in France, communes
repeatedly revolted against the
aristocracy, Swedes fought the Finns,
etc.)In China, there was a peak in the
price of rice around 1128
(approximately one 19 year cycle
early) and this began a 100 year
deflation.This cycle coincided with a
larger 516 year climate cycle.

2007

The chart on the left comes from the

site of Christopher Monckton, who
speaks around the world on Climate
Warming (debunking it). Similar
charts are readily available on
scientific sites across the web. The
pattern is not under dispute.The
change in climate preceded the top of
the market by approximately seven
years (6.3 years is a less harmonic
cycle).Were expecting an even
bigger financial crash to start to take
hold this year (about 7 years past the
top in 2007) and, in fact, the markets
are heading down as I write this.Civil
wars rage around the world, people
are killing each other, and Ebola
(which has been around for decades)
has suddenly sprung up with the
decline in social mood.The pattern is
once again exerting itself.

Are you seeing a pattern here? I hope so.

However, its not all doom and gloom. Quite the opposite. Its a huge opportunity.
Tremendous fortunes have been made in times of financial hardship. Look at the 1930s.
Many families that are well-known in the upper echelons of society today made their
fortunes during those very tough years and the years that followed.

The danger is not paying attention to the cycle were innot getting prepared to be
financially resilient. There are many who will pay no attention and end up in ruin. The
smart ones will persevere, find new avenues to excel in, or hunker down and make their
present situation indestructible.