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Company Reg No. 193500026Z
Key Events n USD/SGD has recovered to around 1.35 this morning after
Date Event slipping below the level on Mon to trade to a low of 1.3458.
On the trade-weighted basis, SGD is currently trading steady
at 1.7% above the policy mid-point this morning with the
2% threshold corresponding to USD/SGD at 1.3470. This
morning, Singapore's 2Q10 GDP growth was revised lower
to 18.8% y/y from 19.3% in the advance estimates with 1H10
GDP registering an expansion of 17.9% y/y. The revision
was mainly due to weaker manufacturing and construction
Asian Markets
Tuesday, 10 August 2010
p2
sectors. The MTI maintained its full-year growth forecast at Fri. The Nikkei fell 0.7% but Hang Seng Index and Shanghai
13.0-15.0% as it expects growth momentum to ease in 2H10. CI rose more than 0.5% yesterday. In the region, the Jakarta
CI rose 0.7% while Thai and Malaysian stock indexes ended
n RMB ended firmer at 6.7671/USD on Mon, up from Fri's near-flat. This morning, Nikkei opened in the positive
close of 6.7683 after the PBoC set the central parity at a territory, reflecting the gains in the US stock indexes
post-revaluation high of 6.7685 in the morning (Fri: overnight. The DJIA edged up 0.4% on Mon.
6.7730). This also boosted RMB in the NDF market with the
12-mth rising to 6.6665/USD and pricing in 1.5% n Taiwan's July exports came in stronger-than-expected at
appreciation against USD (vs the fixing). The RMB could 38.5% y/y, rising from 34.1% in June. Imports grew 42.7%
reverse some strength today as the PBoC set the RMB y/y in July vs 40.4% in June.
central parity weaker at 6.7745 this morning.
n Thai Constitutional Court has begun trial against the ruling
n Stock indexes in Asia were mostly firmer on Mon despite Democrat Party over allegations of misuse of a THB29 mn
the disappointment in the US non-farm payrolls data on state grant and an undeclared political donation.
Singapore Focus:
Singapore's 2Q GDP came in lower compared to the advance estimates, growing 18.8% y/y and 24.0% q/q saar (adv est: 19.3%
y/y, and 26.0% q/q saar). The slower growth was due to the weaker manufacturing and construction sectors, which expanded
44.5% y/y (adv est: 45.5%) and 11.5% y/y (adv est:13.5%) respectively. The services sector was just a tad weaker than in advance
estimates at 11.2% compared to 11.4%.
We're starting to see manufacturing tapering off already, as industrial output grew at the slowest pace in 4 months in Jun, after
exceptionally strong expansion in May and Apr. The slower expansion came primarily from pharmaceutical manufacturing, which
saw a moderation in growth pace from the extraordinarily strong rate of 122.5% y/y in May and 102.1% y/y in Apr. We continue
to see a slowing down in manufacturing growth pace in the second half of this year, given the lack of clarity on the recovery
process in the US, and Europe's sovereign debt problem also far from being solved. As for services, although the sector expanded
at a slower pace in the second quarter, on a q/q saar basis, we think the sector will continue to keep up the growth pace as tourism-
related sectors and financial services continue its growth momentum. Our full year forecast remains unchanged at 13.8%, taking
into account a contraction in the 3Q on a q/q saar basis. We are still maintaining our forecast at 5.0% for 2011.
Economic Indicators
Local Time Indicators Mth Actual UOB Forecast Mkt Forecast Previous
09/08
1100 SK PPI y/y Jul 3.4 - - 4.6%
1600 TW Total Exports y/y Jul 38.5 - 31.0 34.1%
1600 TW Total Imports y/y Jul 42.7 - 39.7 40.4%
10/08
0800 SG GDP q/q 2Q F 24.0 - 25.2 26.0%
0800 SG GDP y/y 2Q F 18.8 - 19.3 19.3%
0900 PH Total Exports y/y Jun - 25.0 37.3%
1201 MA Industrial Prod y/y Jun - 11.8 12.6%
CH Trade Bal (USD) Jul - 19.6 20.02b
CH Exports y/y Jul - 35.0 43.9%
CH Imports y/y Jul - 30.0 34.1%
11/08
0700 SK Unemployment rate sa Jul - - 3.5%
1000 CH PPI y/y Jul - 6.0 6.4%
1000 CH Purchasing Pr Ind y/y Jul - - 10.8%
Jimmy Koh Suan Teck Kin, CFA Ho Woei Chen Chow Penn Nee
(65) 6539 3545 (65) 6539 3922 (65) 6539 3948 (65) 6539 3923
Jimmy.KohCT@UOBgroup.com Suan.TeckKin@UOBgroup.com Ho.WoeiChen@UOBgroup.com Chow.PennNee@UOBgroup.com
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