Investment Research — General Market Conditions

10 August 2010

Commodities Daily
Commodities news
Today’s key points
 Overview – Commodities a little softer this morning after minor gains yesterday.
Equity markets gained in the US but lost steam in Asian trading. Bank of Japan kept  EIA Short-Term Outlook

its liquidity measures and the overnight rate unchanged. China’s trade surplus climbed  FOMC meeting
to an 18-month high in July. FOMC meeting in focus today. EIA kicks off with first  API stock report
oil-market report this week.

 Grains – Wheat prices declined further on Monday after speculation that Russia may
review recently introduced curbs on grain exports in October. However, separately, Commodities overview
there was talk about the export ban being extended beyond 31 December and Contract Last price %, d/d
President Putin noted that a range of regions were currently unable to start sowing WTI, NYMEX 1. pos 81.0 0.4
winter wheat. Notwithstanding, the OECD has joined the UN in stressing that the Brent, ICE 1. pos 80.4 0.3
current situation is not comparable to the upheaval in global commodity markets in Heating Oil, NYMEX 1. pos 214.7 0.0
2007/08 that sparked food inflation and social unrest. Gasoline, NYMEX 1. pos 211.0 -0.1
 Cross commodities – July Chinese trade data showed that while exports rose by a Aluminium, LME 3M 2170 -1.0
record 38% y/y, imports were markedly weaker, up a mere 23% y/y. On the month, Copper, LME 3M 7371 0.0
imports actually fell 0.4% as buying of a range of commodities declined. Notably, Lead, LME 3M 2180 0.9
crude oil was down 15% m/m and aluminium fell 10%; in contrast, copper managed Nickel, LME 3M 22615 2.3
to post a small rise in imports of 4%. While the import data may underestimate Zinc, LME 3M 2136 0.3
Chinese appetite for commodities, see China's Ore Demand Flies Under the Radar, Steel, LME 3M 505 0.4
these data do put focus on the potential downside to not least base metals should the Hot Rol Coil, NYMEX 1. pos 560 0.0
Chinese property bubble burst.
Gold, spot 1200 -0.4
Silver, spot 18 -0.8

Chinese imports: aluminium continues to decline, copper slightly up Wheat, CBOT 1. pos 713.3 -1.7
Corn, CBOT 1. pos 400.0 -1.2
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Markets.

Commodities Research:

Chief Analyst
Arne Lohmann Rasmussen
+45 4521 8532
arr@danskebank.dk

Senior Analyst
Christin Tuxen
+45 45137867
tux@danskebank.dk

Commodities Sales:

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Senior Dealer

Martin Vorgod
+45 4514 3286
mavo@danskebank.dk

Vice President
Fredrik Åberg
+45 4514 3285
fredrik.aberg@danskebank.dk

Bloomberg: DRFX <GO>

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Commodities Daily

Commodity-price movements

10.08.2010 Yesterday Month ago Year ago This year

Last price %, today Close %, d/d Price %, m/m Price %, y/y %, YTD
Energy (1. pos):
NYMEX WTI ($/bbl) 81.0 -0.6 81.5 1.0 76.1 6.5 70.6 14.8 2.1
ICE Brent ($/bbl) 80.4 -0.7 81.0 1.0 75.4 6.6 73.5 9.4 3.2
NYMEX Heating Oil ($/gallon) 214.7 -0.3 215.4 0.3 202.6 6.0 192.8 11.4 1.3
NYMEX RBOB Gasoline ($/gallon) 211.0 -0.4 211.9 0.3 207.0 1.9 202.7 4.1 2.8
ICE Gasoil ($/ton) 675.5 -0.7 680.5 0.3 644.3 4.9 605.5 11.6 6.3
ICE NWE Jet Fuel, CIF ($/ton) 738.3 -0.4 741.1 0.1 701.3 5.3 659.5 12.0 5.4
TTF NL Natural Gas (€/mwh) 19.0 1.9 18.7 -1.3 21.2 -10.2 9.7 96.7 46.2
Henry Hub Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 4.3 0.1 4.3 -3.5 4.4 -2.0 3.6 18.5 -22.6
Nordpool electricity (€/mwh) 46.2 3.2 44.8 0.9 47.3 -2.3 - - -
Fuel oil, 1%, FOB NWE ($/ton) 479.8 0.4 478.0 - 446.5 3.8 301.3 53.8 81.3
Fuel oil, 3.5%, FOB ARA ($/ton) 452.8 0.5 450.5 - 433.0 3.7 227.0 97.8 98.2
API2 steam coal, CIF ARA ($/ton) 94.4 -0.3 94.8 -0.3 93.7 0.8 70.8 33.4 14.8
ICE ECX Carbon Emission (€/tn) 14.6 2.4 14.2 -0.8 14.7 -0.5 14.7 -1.1 16.3

Base metals:
Aluminium, LME 3M, $/ton 2170 -0.5 2182 -0.4 2004 8.3 1969 10.2 -2.7
Copper, LME 3M, $/ton 7371 -0.7 7425 0.7 6760 9.0 6135 20.2 -0.1
Lead, LME 3M, $/ton 2180 -0.9 2200 1.8 1845 18.2 1874 16.3 -10.4
Nickel, LME 3M, $/ton 22615 -0.8 22800 3.2 19500 16.0 20200 12.0 22.1
Zinc, LME 3M, $/ton 2136 -0.7 2150 1.0 1904 12.2 1850 15.4 -16.6
Steel, LME 3M, $/ton 505 1.0 500 -0.6 430 17.4 410 23.2 23.3
Hot Rolled Coil, NYMEX, 1. pos, $/ton 560 0.0 560 0.0 600 -6.7 500 12.0 1.8

Precious Metals (spot, $/t oz.):

Gold 1200 0.0 1201 -0.4 1211.0 -0.9 946.8 26.8 9.3
Silver 18 0.1 18 -0.8 18.1 1.2 14.4 26.8 8.1

Agriculturals (1. pos):

CBOT Wheat ($/bu.) 713.3 0.1 712.5 -1.8 523.5 36.2 494.3 44.3 31.7
Matif Mill Wheat (€/ton) 214.3 1.8 210.5 -6.2 150.0 42.8 123.0 74.2 63.2
CBOT Corn ($/bu.) 400.0 -0.7 403.0 -0.5 375.3 6.6 324.3 23.4 -3.5
CBOT Soybeans ($/bu.) 1047.0 -0.1 1048.5 -1.0 1025.5 2.1 1170.5 -10.6 0.7
NYBOT Sugar ($/lb.) 17.7 -2.8 18.2 -0.3 16.6 6.7 20.8 -14.8 -34.2

Commodity indices (total return):

DJ-UBS 271 -0.2 272 -1.1 255 6.3 260 4.1 -2.9
S&P GSCI 4320 -0.4 4338 0.3 4065 6.3 4357 -0.8 -4.7
Reuters CRB 274 0.0 275 -1.1 260 5.4 264 3.9 -3.0
Rogers commodity index 3254 0.2 3248 -1.4 3004 8.3 3038 7.1 -0.6
DJ-AIG 135 -0.2 135 -1.1 127 6.3 130 4.0 -3.0
S&P GSCI Energy 953 0.6 948 -1.7 902 5.7 1002 -4.9 -6.2
S&P GSCI Industrial Metals 1666 0.7 1655 -0.1 1504 10.8 1497 11.3 -2.4
S&P GSCI Precious Metals 1550 -0.3 1556 0.5 1561 -0.7 1247 24.3 8.9
S&P GSCI Agriculture 604 -0.8 609 -2.7 533 13.5 564 7.1 -1.8
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Markets.

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Commodities Daily

Energy
Oil prices US crude oil stocks, EIA

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

WTI (NYMEX) forward curve Brent (ICE) curve

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

Jet fuel and gasoil crack spreads Gasoline crack spread, RBOB, NYMEX 1. pos

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

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Heating oil crack spread, NYMEX 1. pos Fuel oil, NWE, crack spreads

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

CO2 emission rights, ICE 1. pos Electricity, Nordpool quarterly, 1. pos

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

Natural gas, 1. pos API2 coal, 1. pos

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

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Metals
Aluminium Aluminium forward curve

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

Copper Copper forward curve

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

Nickel Nickel forward curve

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

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Zinc Zinc forward curve

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

Copper SHFE-LME spread Steel

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

Gold and silver Gold forward curve

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

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Grains
Wheat Milling wheat forward curve, NYSE LIffe

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

Corn, CBOT 1. pos Corn forward curve, CBOT

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

Soybeans, CBOT 1. pos Soybeans forward curve, CBOT

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

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