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An Introductory Tutorial on Stochastic Linear

Programming Models

Suvrajeet Sen Department of Systems and Industrial Engineering


The University of Arizona
Tucson, Arizona 85721

Julia L. Higle Department of Systems and Industrial Engineering


The University of Arizona

Linear programming is a fundamental planning tool. It is often


difficult to precisely estimate or forecast certain critical data
elements of the linear program. In such cases, it is necessary to
address the impact of uncertainty during the planning process.
We discuss a variety of LP-based models that can be used for
planning under uncertainty. In all cases, we begin with a de-
terministic LP model and show how it can be adapted to in-
clude the impact of uncertainty. We present models that range
from simple recourse policies to more general two-stage and
multistage SLP formulations. We also include a discussion of
probabilistic constraints. We illustrate the various models us-
ing examples taken from the literature. The examples involve
models developed for airline yield management, telecommuni-
cations, flood control, and production planning.

O ver the past several decades, linear


programming (LP) has become a
fundamental planning tool. It is routinely
tioners understanding of the power and
scope of LP, and (3) widely available and
reliable software. Furthermore, research
applied in engineering, business, econom- on specialized problems, such as assign-
ics, environmental studies, and other disci- ment, transportation, and network prob-
plines. This widespread acceptance may lems, has made LP methodology indis-
be due to (1) good algorithms, (2) practi- pensable in many industries, including

Copyright q 1999, Institute for Operations Research PROGRAMMING, STOCHASTIC


and the Management Sciences TUTORIAL
0092-2102/99/29020033/$5.00
This paper was refereed.

INTERFACES 29: 2 MarchApril 1999 (pp. 3361)


SEN, HIGLE

airlines, energy, manufacturing, and tele- requirements between various node pairs
communications. Notwithstanding its suc- are known with certainty. Such determin-
cesses, however, the assumption that all istic network-design problems result in a
model parameters are known with cer- tree structure (Figure 2a). With a tree de-
tainty limits its usefulness in planning un- sign, all demand pairs have paths through
der uncertainty. When one or more of the which calls may be routed. However, the
data elements in a linear program is repre- design is rigid in that only one such path
sented by a random variable, a stochastic is available. During periods of high de-
linear program (SLP) results. mand, the lack of alternative routes results
In deterministic activity analysis, plan- in the rejection of calls and a reduced level
ning consists of choosing activity levels of service. Moreover, if a link should fail
that satisfy resource constraints while because of some catastrophic event, nodes
maximizing total profit (or minimizing to- will be disconnected from the network.
tal cost). All the information necessary for Attempts to counter these difficulties by
decision making is assumed to be avail- scaling the demand upward, for example,
able at the time of planning. Under uncer- will increase the capacity of the links used;
tainty, not all the information is available, it will not eliminate the rigidity of the de-
and some parameters should be modeled sign. To obtain a more flexibly designed
as random variables. We discuss here network (Figure 2b), one must incorporate
models that can include random variables the need for flexibility within the model.
within optimization problems. Since deter- One must construct a model that explicitly
ministic methodology has been prevalent considers the likelihood of periodic (and
in optimization models, it may be tempt- correlated) heavy loads on segments of the
ing to suggest that random variables network and the possibility of catastrophic
should be replaced by their means and the equipment failures. The improvement pos-
resulting optimization problem solved. In sible from the use of a stochastic model in-
general, this approach provides solutions creases with the size of the network. In
that are structurally different from those fact, in a case study conducted at Bellcore,
provided by stochastic optimization Sen, Doverspike, and Cosares [1994] re-
models. port a 75-percent reduction in the number
To understand this, consider a network of lost calls using stochastic LP models in
with n nodes, as in Figure 1, on which place of deterministic models.
demand for connections between the (n2 ) Methods for forecasting important
demand pairs must be accommodated. quantities, such as demand, are well
Networks, such as those in telecommuni- known and widely used. Moreover, the
cations systems, are complex and typically fields of statistics and simulation provide
include hundreds of nodes. In the design methods for obtaining distributional rep-
problem that we consider, the capacity of resentations of these quantities when point
each network link must be determined in estimators are inadequate. Although many
anticipation of future demand require- people routinely formulate LP models,
ments. It is customary to assume that the only recently have OR/MS practitioners

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STOCHASTIC LINEAR PROGRAMMING

certainty. In this tutorial, we explain


linear-programming models for optimiza-
tion under uncertainty at a very elemen-
tary level. Consequently, all we assume is
that readers are familiar with LP models
and elementary probability constructs.
The Impact of Uncertainty
The presence of uncertainty affects both
feasibility and optimality. In fact, formu-
Figure 1: In this simple network with three lating an appropriate objective function it-
nodes, there are (32), or three point-to-point de- self raises interesting modeling and algo-
mand pairs: A-B, B-C, and A-C. The presence rithmic questions.
of an edge indicates that capacity may be
added to form a link between the two nodes
Feasibility Under Uncertainty
in the network. To incorporate uncertainty within an
LP, one must define feasibility. Two naive
begun using these methods to formulate
approaches have sometimes been adopted
LP models for decision making under un-
in practice.
Example 1: SLPs with Expected Values
Consider the following four variable de-
terministic LP:

Minimize 1x2
subject to x1 ` x2 ` x3 4 2
1x1 ` x2 ` x4 4 2 (1)
11 # x1 # 1
xj > 0, j 4 2, 3, 4.

Suppose that the coefficients of x1 and x2


in (1) are not known with certainty, and
all that is known about these parameters is
their joint distribution

(a21, a22)

511, 342 with probability 12


Figure 2: These illustrate alternative network
designs. The tree structure in 2a results from 4
the use of a deterministic model and yields a
very rigid routing protocol. The network in 2b 113, 542 with probability 12 .
results from the use of a stochastic model. It
is a more flexible design due to the presence In this case, E[a21] 4 11 and E[a22] 4 1
of multiple routing capabilities for each de- so that the coefficients in (1) correspond to
mand pair. In general, the design in 2b pro-
the expected values of the random vari-
vides a greater opportunity to respond to net-
work failures and high loads than the design ables. In examining this formulation, we
in 2a. first investigate whether its solution, (x1,

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SEN, HIGLE

x2, x3, x4) 4 (0, 2, 0, 0)), is feasible under That is, if implemented, either solution
uncertainty. Under uncertainty, the con- would have a 50-percent chance of failing
straint corresponding to (1) is equally to satisfy a constraint.
likely to be either As illustrated by Examples 1 and 2, an
appropriate decision-making framework
3
x1 ` x2 ` x4 4 2 under uncertainty should explicitly con-
4
sider the consequences of future infeasibil-
or ity within the model. This aspect of mod-
eling responses to future infeasibility sets
5
13x1 ` x2 ` x4 4 2. stochastic programs apart from their de-
4
terministic counterparts. In the stochastic-
The vector (0, 2, 0, 0) does not satisfy ei- programming literature, two approaches
ther of these equations and thus is infeasi- are widely studied: one is based on mod-
ble under uncertainty! Under uncertainty, eling future recourse (response) and an-
the formulation in which random vari- other restricts the probability of infeasibil-
ables are replaced by their expected values ity (typically equivalent to system failures)
may not provide a solution that is feasible to be no greater than a prespecified
with respect to the random variables. threshold. The first approach yields the
Example 2: Wait and See so-called recourse problems, and the sec-
Another approach that practitioners ond approach yields problems with proba-
often adopt is based on a wait-and-see bilistic (or chance) constraints. While a
analysis (sometimes referred to as scenario specific application may call for both ap-
analysis or what-if analysis). This ap- proaches, we discuss them separately.
proach mimics the process of delaying all The stochastic-programming literature
decisions until the last possible moment, also considers another problem: the distri-
after all uncertainties have been resolved. bution problem. Researchers focus on
As a result, the LPs associated with all characterizing the distribution of the opti-
possible outcomes of the random quanti- mal value or optimal solutions of random
ties are solved. This yields a collection of LPs. As with wait-and-see problems, the
decision vectors, one for each possible out- distribution problem does not provide a
come of the random variable(s). In gen- decision-making framework. Nevertheless,
eral, none of these solutions may be it provides a mathematical common
worthwhile. For example, consider the ground between the second-stage random
two possible realizations of the problem in LP in recourse problems and the random
Example 1. The solution associated with LP of the wait-and-see approach. From a
(a21, a22) 4 (1, 3/4) is (11, 3, 0, 0.75), computational point of view, this problem
while the solution associated with (a21, a22) remains a major challenge [Prekopa 1995,
4 (13, 5/4) is (12/17, 32/17, 0, 0.75). As chapter 15].
with the solution to the expected-value Objectives Under Uncertainty
problem, neither of these solutions is feasi- A great deal of research revolves
ble with respect to the alternate outcome. around the choice of objectives in decision

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STOCHASTIC LINEAR PROGRAMMING

making under uncertainty. One of the with prosperous and recessionary times
more common objectives is to optimize ex- may be decidedly different. To meet such
pected costs (or returns). However, as de- managerial objectives under uncertainty, it
cision makers, we might be interested in may be appropriate to minimize expected
the variability of costs (or returns) associ- absolute deviations from set goals.
ated with a plan. More generally, a deci- (3) Vector optimization under uncertainty
sion makers choices may be guided by a is a class of models that generalize the sto-
utility function. In decision-making mod- chastic goal-programming approach. An
els for an individual, the concept of a util- example of a multiobjective model would
ity function has many merits, although its be a travelers advisory system to recom-
specification can be elusive. The notion of mend routes from origin to destination in
a utility function can become even more Tucson, Arizona. Because flash floods oc-
elusive in large-scale applications of LP. In cur during the monsoon season in Tucson,
the following, we discuss four of the more the advisory system must include low wa-
common objectives for large-scale LPs un- ter level on the roads as one of the objec-
der uncertainty: tives. In addition, it should incorporate the
(1) Minimization of expected costs is by traditional objective of minimal travel
far the most common objective used in time. Because these objectives are essen-
large-scale optimization under uncer- tially noncommensurate, it is appropriate
tainty. For such applications as planning to adopt the vector-optimization frame-
power generation, average seasonal cost work. Furthermore, since the route is to be
per day reflects the repetitive cost of sup- recommended before a potential down-
plying electricity. For some applications in pour, water levels are random variables
telecommunications systems, system per- (as are travel times). This results in a
formance is often measured in terms of vector-optimization problem under
average unserved demand. Finally, in uncertainty.
production-and-inventory systems, it is (4) Minimization of maximum costs is an
common to use average production and alternate class of models. There are vari-
holding costs in evaluating the cost effec- ous interpretations of the term minimax in
tiveness of a system. For such systems, the stochastic-programming models. In one in-
expected cost criterion is easily justified. terpretation, no distributional information
(2) Minimization of expected absolute de- is available, and all that is known is the
viations from goals is a class of objectives set of possible outcomes. In this case, the
that results from extending goal- minimax objective minimizes the maxi-
programming techniques to account for mum loss among all possible outcomes of
uncertainty. In some cases, it may be ad- the random variable. A similar class of
vantageous to specify goals that depend problems arises in the case of partial infor-
upon particular scenarios. For example, mation regarding the probability distribu-
production goals may depend upon eco- tions. For instance, one may have informa-
nomic factors that are modeled as uncer- tion regarding some characteristics of the
tain quantities. Thus, the goals associated distribution (for example, support, mean,

MarchApril 1999 37
SEN, HIGLE

and variance), and the set of probability sponse for each outcome of the random
measures of interest may be those that elements that might be observed. In gen-
share those characteristics. A worst-case eral, this response will also depend upon
approach under partial information is one the first-stage decisions. In practice, this
in which we choose a decision that mini- type of planning involves setting up poli-
mizes maximum expected loss, regardless cies that will help the organization adapt
of the distribution (from among the class to the revealed outcome. For example, in
with the specified characteristics). When production and inventory systems, the
the class of distributions can be character- first-stage decision might correspond to
ized as a polyhedral set, this class of prob- production quantities, and demand might
lems can be solved using generalized LP. be modeled using random variables.
This minimax approach is known to be When demand exceeds the amount pro-
conservative and may be appropriate in duced, policy may dictate that customer
models that plan to avoid catastrophes. demand be backlogged at some cost. This
Thus, models associated with environmen- policy constitutes a recourse response. The
tal planning may appropriately use this exact level of this response (the amount
objective [Pinter 1991]. backlogged) depends on the amounts pro-
In this tutorial, we discuss primarily duced and demanded. Under uncertainty,
models with the expected value objective. it is essential to adopt initial policies that
Two-Stage Recourse Models will accommodate alternative outcomes.
In two-stage recourse models, we explic- Consequently, modeling under uncer-
itly classify the decision variables accord- tainty requires that we incorporate a
ing to whether they are implemented be- model of the recourse policy.
fore or after an outcome of the random In some applications, it is possible to de-
variable is observed. Decisions that are im- viate from prescribed limits, although with
plemented before are known as first-stage a penalty cost. For example, in production
decisions while those after are second-stage and inventory management, a backlogging
decisions. The first-stage decision variables policy leads to shortage costs whenever
can be regarded as proactive and are often the demand exceeds the amount in stock.
associated with planning issues, such as Such a policy is called a simple recourse
capacity expansion or aggregate produc- policy, which we illustrate using the data
tion planning. Second-stage decision vari- from Example 1.
ables can be regarded as reactive and are Example 3: A Simple Recourse Model
often associated with operating decisions. Consider the data for Example 1 and
These second-stage decisions allow us to suppose that the variables (x1, x2, x3, x4)
model a response to the observed out- are all first-stage (planning) variables.
come, which constitutes our recourse. Suppose that the recourse policy allows
When outcomes are revealed sequentially, one to compensate for second-stage dis-
decision making involves a multistage crepancies by incurring a penalty cost of 5
planning problem. per unit of deviation from the right-hand-
In recourse planning, we model a re- side value 2. With this added flexibility,

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STOCHASTIC LINEAR PROGRAMMING

we revisit the issue of future infeasibility 3


x1 ` x ` x4 ` y` 1
1 1 y1 4 2
under uncertainty. The stochastic repre- 4 2
sentation of Example 1 includes the con- 5
13x1 ` x2 ` x4 ` y` 1
2 1 y2 4 2
straint (1), 4

a21x1 ` a22x2 ` x4 4 2. as discussed by Murty [1983], for example.


We have already discussed the difficul- Thus, the model in Example 3 can be re-
ties associated with satisfying this con- written as in LP1.
straint. In penalizing deviations from the In this formulation, (x1,. . ., x4) are first-
prescribed value of 2, the model uses a stage variables; they do not vary with the
penalty cost that is a function of the deci- outcome of (a21, a22). Instead, they are ap-
sion vector (x1,. . ., x4), which is the ran- plied against all outcomes. On the other
dom quantity hand, there is a separate set of recourse
variables (y`, y1) for each outcome. This
5|2 1 (a21x1 ` a22x2 ` x4)|. model is one of simple recourse; for a
given level of the first-stage variables, the
Including the expected value of this
appropriate levels of the recourse vari-
penalty cost in the objective function, we
ables are trivially determined. Solving this
can state the decision-making problem as
problem, we obtain (x1*, x2*, x*3 , x4*) 4
follows:
(0.2222, 1.7778, 0, 0.4444). This solution
Minimize differs from those obtained in Example 1,
1 x2 ` 5E[|2 1 (a21x1 ` a22x2 ` x4)|] where we considered the LP with ex-
subject to x1 ` x2 ` x3 4 2 pected values, and Example 2, where we
11 # x1 # 1 considered the wait-and-see problem.
xj > 0, j 4 2, 3, 4. For a generic two-stage formulation un-
der a simple recourse policy, we use an
The main difference between this prob- extension of the notation used in deter-
lem and the expected-value LP in Example ministic LP. The rows of a deterministic
1 is that due to the simple recourse policy, LP are usually written as Ax 4 b. Under
first-stage decisions that do not satisfy (1) uncertainty, we may think of a submatrix
are still considered acceptable, albeit more A1 (of A) and a subvector b1 (of b) as rows
costly. Although this problem is stated as that contain only deterministic parameters.
a nonlinear-programming problem, those We refer to this portion of the problem as
familiar with LP models will recognize the deterministic part. It corresponds to a
that E[|2 1 (a21x1 ` a22x2 ` x4)|] can be first stage of the problem. The remaining
written as rows (containing at least one random ele-
1 ` 1 ` ment) will be indexed by the set R. We re-
( y1 ` y1
1 ) ` ( y2 ` y 1
2 ) fer to ai as the ith row vector in A, and use
2 2
a ; to reflect the presence of random vari-
where the nonnegative variables y` 1
i , yi , i ables. Let gi . 0 denote the penalty cost
4 1, 2 satisfy for violating the target bi. Then we can

MarchApril 1999 39
SEN, HIGLE

Minimize
5 ` 5 1 5 ` 5 1
1x2 ` y1 ` y1 ` y2 ` y2
2 2 2 2
subject to
x1 `x2 `x3 42
3
x1 ` x2 `x4 ` y`
1 1 y1
1 42
4
5
13x1 ` x2 `x4 ` y`
2 1 y1
2 42
4
11 # x1 # 1.
All other variables are nonnegative.
LP1: Linear programming problem associated with Example 3.

state a prototypical model allowing a sim- two cases. More generally, the per unit
ple recourse policy as follows: cost of bi 1 aix may be g`
i
for positive val-
ues (of this random variable) and g1
i for
Minimize cx ` o giE[|bi 1 aix|]
[
i R negative values. In this case, the costs
subject to A1x 4 b1 used for compensating variables (y` 1
i , yi )
L1 # x # U1. are g` 1
i and gi and the objective function

This is an SLP with simple recourse. In must be changed to reflect this.


such an SLP, the first-stage decision vari- Finally, in stating the SLP with simple
ables (x) are the same as the decision vari- recourse, we have assumed that the upper
ables associated with the parent deter- and lower bounds are not subject to uncer-
ministic LP. Hence, the formulation is not tainty. In some situations, these bounds
flexible in its response to uncertainty. may be random. Suppose, for example,
Whenever the random vectors {(ai, bi)}i[R that the upper bounds reflect capacity re-
are discrete random variables as in Exam- strictions. When systems fail, such capac-
ple 2, this model can be rewritten as a lin- ity limits may be modeled as random vari-
ear program as shown below. For i [ R, ables. Assuming a simple recourse policy,
let Si denote an index set of all outcomes we can easily extend the statement of the
of the random vector {(ai, bi)} and let pis 4 model to include this situation.
P{(ai, bi) 4 (ais, bis)}. While the simple recourse policy offers
a notion of feasibility for first-stage plans,
Minimize cx ` ogi 1soS pis(y`is ` y1is )2
i[R [ i
the recourse actions themselves are quite
limited. For example, in a production-and-
subject to A1x 4 b1
inventory system that is experiencing
aisx ` y` 1
is 1 yis 4 bis s [ Si i [ R.
shortages, a simple recourse policy is one
L1 # x # U1.
that simply allows the manufacturer to
In this formulation, the penalty cost per adopt an outsourcing option. A more gen-
unit is the same whether ai(x) 1 bi is posi- eral recourse policy would allow changes
tive or negative. In some applications, the in production rates, thus allowing greater
cost may be nonzero only in one of these flexibility. Under uncertainty, greater flexi-

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STOCHASTIC LINEAR PROGRAMMING

bility translates into greater responsive- clude penalty costs for infeasibility. An
ness and greater profitability. optimal solution for this problem is x1 4
Example 4: A General Recourse Model 0.1176, while x21 4 x22 4 1.8824, x41 4
Consider the situation described in Ex- 0.4706, and all other variables are zero.
ample 1 with the following modification: it The cost-effectiveness of this flexibility is
is now possible to postpone decisions re- reflected in the optimal values of the gen-
garding x2, x3, and x4 until after an out- eral and simple recourse problems. The
come of the random variable is observed. optimal value for the general recourse
Thus the only first-stage variable is x1, problem is 11.8824, which is better than
which must be implemented right away. the optimal value obtained for the simple
This greater flexibility leads to greater prof- recourse case discussed in Example 2,
its, as shown below. To formulate the 11.7772. Because of the added flexibility
decision-making problem, we will con- of our recourse policy, this particular
tinue to assume that minimizing expected model need not include penalty costs for
cost is an appropriate objective. infeasibility.
Since x2, x3, and x4 are implemented af- As with the formulation of a simple re-
ter an outcome is observed, we define one course model, we will present the general
set of second-stage (recourse) variables for recourse formulation as an extension of an
each outcome. Thus let (x21, x31, x41) de- LP problem:
note the second-stage (recourse) variables
Minimize cx
when the outcome is (1, 3/4) and let (x22,
subject to Ax 4 b
x32, x42) denote the recourse variables
L # x # U.
when the outcome is (13, 5/4). Recalling
that each outcome occurs with probability Suppose that the decision maker speci-
1/2, we can formulate the two-stage pro- fies a subvector of x, say x1, as the first-
gram with general recourse as in LP2. stage decision variables. As in Example 3,
Because of the added flexibility of our these variables cannot be postponed until
recourse policy, this model need not in- better information is available. The re-

Minimize 1 1
1 x 1 x
2 21 2 22
subject to x1 `x21 `x31 42
x1 3 `x41 42
` x21
4

x1 `x22 `x32 42

13x1 5 `x42 4 2.
` x
4 22

11 # x1 #1
All other variables are nonnegative.
LP2: Linear programming problem for the two-stage program with general recourse.

MarchApril 1999 41
SEN, HIGLE

maining variables, say x2, can be post- unique realization of these quantities (Bs,
poned. Naturally, with this temporal divi- A2s, c2s, b2s). If S is a discrete set, then for
sion of the problem, two types of each s [ S, let ps 4 P{(B, a2, c2, b2) 4 (Bs,
constraints arise: constraints that involve A2s, c2s, b2s)}. Also, let x2s denote the re-
only the first-stage variables (x1), and con- course response associated with scenario s.
straints that may involve both sets of vari- The two-stage program with general re-
ables. Thus, it is convenient to think of a course may now be written as follows:
submatrix A1 (of A) and a subvector b1 (of
b) yielding a subset of the constraints, A1x1 Minimize c1x1 ` opsc2sx2s
s[S
(2)
4 b1. The remaining constraints involve x1
subject to A1x1 4 b1
and x2, which we write as Bx1 ` A2x2 4
b2. Finally, the cost vector c is partitioned Bsx1 ` A2sx2s 4 b2s s [ S
as (c1, c2) so that we may rewrite the for- L1 # x1 # U1, L2 # x2s # U2 s [ S. (3)
mulation as
This formulation is unlike the simple re-
Minimize c1x1 ` c2x2
course formulation, in that some (or per-
subject to A1x1 4 b1
haps all) choices of x1 that satisfy (2) can
Bx1 ` A2x2 4 b2
render (3) infeasible for some scenarios. It
L1 # x1 # U1, L2 # x2 # U2.
is possible to include compensating vari-
It is convenient to think of this deter- ables (with positive penalty costs) to en-
ministic LP as the core problem from sure that the resulting problem is feasible.
which the stochastic LP will be derived. It Furthermore, it can be shown that this ex-
models the time-staged dynamics of the tended formulation always has a lower
interactions among the decision variables. optimal value than a formulation in which
The constraints A1x1 4 b1 include the the decision maker restricts all decision
immediate constraints, those that involve variables in x (the vector from the deter-
only the variables that cannot be delayed. ministic LP) to be first-stage decisions and
As such, there are no random variables in only a simple recourse policy is allowed in
the immediate data (c1, A1, b1). The ran- the second stage.
dom variables appear in the second stage The stochastic program with general re-
of the problem, which includes the vari- course is also referred to as a problem
ables x2 and can be postponed until the with random recourse, since the matrices
uncertainties are realized. Thus, we con- A2s are allowed to depend on the outcome
sider the second-stage data to include ran- s [ S. However, since the term random re-
dom variables, so that we express them as course might be misconstrued as a case in
(c2, B, a2, b2) (here, we use ; to indicate a which the decision maker has no control
random entity). over the recourse policy, we use the term
To formulate the stochastic LP, let S de- general recourse. When the matrices A2s are
note an index set of all possible outcomes the same for all s [ S (that is, A2 is not
of the second-stage quantities (B, a2, c2, b2) random), the stochastic program is said to
such that each s [ S corresponds to a have fixed recourse. Even in such cases, the

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STOCHASTIC LINEAR PROGRAMMING

random right-hand-side vector, b2, causes dependent on any outcome of the random
the recourse decision itself to vary with s, variable and hence are nonanticipative. An
and hence the fixed-recourse formulation alternate statement of this requirement is
retains the variables x2s, s [ S. Finally, the given in the scenario formulation below:
special case of fixed recourse, in which A2s
4 [I, 1I] (where I denotes an identity ma-
Minimize ops [c1x1s ` c2sx2s]
s[S
trix) yields the simple recourse model dis- subject to A1x1s 4 b1 s [ S
cussed earlier. Bsx1s ` A2sx2s 4 b2s s [ S
A general recourse problem is said to x1 1 x1s 4 0 s [ S (4)
have complete recourse if for any choice of L1 # x1s # U1, L2 # x2s # U2 s [ S.
x1, a feasible recourse decision is possible
for all outcomes s [ S. The simple re- In this formulation, the variables x1s are
course formulation possesses complete re- dependent on the outcome s. However,
course. A slightly less restrictive property constraint (4) explicitly enforces imple-
is that of relatively complete recourse mentability by requiring that all outcomes
whereby one requires that a feasible re- agree on the same planning decision x1.
course decision be possible for all out- We can obtain a slightly more compact
comes s provided the first-stage decision representation of this formulation by re-
(x1) satisfies the first-stage constraints (A1x1 quiring first A1x1 4 b1 and then requiring
4 b1, L1 # x1 # U1). By using penalty (4). By doing so, we avoid replicating the
costs for deviations from constraint satis- first set of constraints for each outcome.
faction, one can ensure complete recourse Both of these are equivalent representa-
in any problem. tions of the two-stage SLP with general re-
One of the more important notions in- course. The particular representation used
corporated within a stochastic program- typically depends on the algorithm being
ming formulation is that of implementabil- used to solve the problem.
ity (or nonanticipativity). This term reflects Note that the general recourse problem
the requirement that under uncertainty, is a finite-dimensional linear program
the planning decisions (x1) must be imple- whenever S is a finite set. However, when-
mented before an outcome of the random ever the random variable is continuous
variable is observed. That is, the planning these formulations lead to infinite dimen-
decision is made while the random vari- sional problems. Under these circum-
able is still unknown, and therefore it can- stances, it is more convenient to state the
not be based on any particular outcome of model in the following decomposed form:
the random variable. Thus the wait-and- 1)]
Minimize cx1 ` E[h(x
see approach, which is anticipative, is not
subject to A1x1 # b1
an appropriate decision-making frame-
L1 # x1 # U1
work for planning. On the other hand, the
here-and-now approach embodied in the where each outcome hs(x) of the random
two-stage SLP with general recourse pro- variable h(x) is a function of the LP de-
vides planning decisions (x1) that are not fined by the outcome (c2s, A2s, Bs, b2s) of

MarchApril 1999 43
SEN, HIGLE

the random variable (c2, a2, B, b2). That is, Although the recourse function is con-
vex, it is not, in general, differentiable. It is
hs(x1) 4 Minimize c2sx2s (5)
well known from LP theory that the value
subject to A2sx2s 4 b2s 1 Bsx1
of a linear program as a function of its
L2 # x2s # U2.
right-hand side is piecewise linear and
This decomposed formulation is con- convex (when the LP is stated as a mini-
venient when the sample space S contains mization problem). Hence every outcome
either a large number of atoms (in the case of h() is a piecewise linear function. It fol-
of discrete random variables) or a contin- lows that, if the number of outcomes of
the random variable is finite, then E[h(x 1)]
uum (in the case of continuous random
1)] is referred
variables). The function E[h(x is a convex combination of finitely many
to as the recourse function. This formulation piecewise linear functions and conse-
emphasizes the time-staged nature of the quently piecewise linear. It is therefore
decision problem. That is, the selection of clear that for problems with discrete ran-
x1 is followed by the selection of x2, which dom variables, the recourse function is
is undertaken in response to the scenario piecewise linear and therefore nondiffer-
that unfolds. Thus, the first decision, x1, entiable in general. Indeed conditions re-
represents the immediate commitment quired to ensure differentiability of the
made, while the second decision is de- recourse function are quite stringent, re-
layed until additional information is ob- quiring absolutely continuous random
tained. For this reason, when solving a re- variables for all elements of the right-hand
course problem, one typically reports only side in (5) [Kall 1976].
the first-stage decision vector. Scenario Construction
Much of the difficulty associated with Each scenario corresponds to a particu-
recourse models may be traced to difficul- lar outcome of the random quantity (c2, a2,
ties with evaluating and approximating B, B2). It is largely a matter of notational
the recourse function. In essence, the diffi- convenience that we refer to these vectors
culty in solving the recourse problem may and matrices as being random. In most
be attributed to the evaluation of the ex- cases, only a small number of the elements
pectation of the random linear-program are actually random; the rest are constant
value function, h(x1), which involves mul- (that is, degenerate random variables). In
tidimensional integration. Notwithstand- the examples weve presented (Examples
ing the impracticality of the multidimen- 1-3), only two coefficients are random. In
sional integration of this particular defining the set of scenarios, it is necessary
function, the recourse function possesses to identify all possible outcomes of (c2, a2,
one of the most sought-after properties in B, B2). This is equivalent to identifying the
all of mathematical programming, namely values of those elements that are fixed and
convexity. the set of all possible outcomes of those
Theorem 1 [Wets 1974]: The recourse elements that vary. In undertaking this
1)], is convex over its effec-
function, E[h(x last task, it is important to note the dis-
tive domain D 4 {x [ X | E[h(x 1)] , `}. tinctions between models of dependent

INTERFACES 29:2 44
STOCHASTIC LINEAR PROGRAMMING

and independent random variables. come is the product of the corresponding


From a modeling perspective, depen- marginal probabilities. For example, if
dence results when the random elements there are two random variables with five
are subject to a common influence and are outcomes each and one random variable
most easily described using joint distribu- with four outcomes and the random vari-
tions. For example, in a hydroelectric- ables are independent, there are 5 2 5 2
power-planning model, all hydrological 4 4 100 possible scenarios being modeled.
reserves are influenced by the weather. In It is easy to see that with independent ran-
wet years, reservoirs will tend to be full; dom variables, the number of possible sce-
in dry years they will tend toward lower narios grows exponentially in the number
levels. In such a case, it would be conven- of random elements.
ient to model wet periods and dry periods Probabilistic Constraints
(or even multiple degrees of wet and dry As discussed earlier, one of the main
periods) and to specify the set of reservoir consequences of uncertainty within the
levels that correspond to each type of pe- context of decision making is the possibil-
riod. By specifying the probability with ity of infeasibility in the future. In two-
which each type of period occurs, one ob- stage recourse models, this issue is ad-
tains a joint distribution on the reservoir dressed through the use of penalties in the
levels. simple recourse model and by postponing
Independent random variables result some decisions into the second stage in
when there is no apparent link between the general recourse model. However, in
the various elements. In this case, one can the general recourse model, we might
most easily describe the random elements have to resort to the introduction of some
individually using marginal distributions. compensating variables to eliminate the
For example, in the telecommunication- possibility of second-stage infeasibility. In
network-planning example, the number of any event, the recourse-based modeling
calls initiated between any pair of nodes is philosophy requires the decision maker to
generally not influenced by the calls be- impute a price to activities that are under-
tween any other pair. Thus, one models taken in response to the randomness. In
the pairwise demand as independent ran- some applications, such as production-
dom variables using distributions appro- and-inventory models, these costs are
priate to the application. (For example, if it standard. However, in some situations it
is reasonable to assume that calls arrive may be more appropriate to accept the
according to a Poisson process, then a possibility of infeasibility under some cir-
Poisson distribution is appropriate.) In this cumstances, provided the probability of
case, a scenario identifies a value for each this event is restricted below a given
realization. With independent random threshold. For example, in power-
variables, the set of all possible outcomes generation planning, planners often spec-
is the Cartesian product of the elemental ify a loss-of-load probability (say one day
outcomes for each random variable. The in 10,000) to ensure system reliability. Sim-
probability associated with any given out- ilarly, in planning emergency medical ser-

MarchApril 1999 45
SEN, HIGLE

vices, it is customary to plan for a grade of Theorem 2 [Prekopa 1971]: Suppose that
service based on the probability of an- the matrix A2 is deterministic, p [ (0, 1) is
swering a call within a prespecified time given, and the vector b2 has a log-concave
limit. In such cases, there is an implicit ac- multivariate probability density function.
ceptance of the inability to meet system re- Then {x | P{A2x > b2} > p} is a convex set.
quirements at all times. Hence the system For the sake of completeness, we in-
is designed in such a way as to meet crite- clude the following definition: A function f
ria most of the time. Such models lead to is said to be log-concave if for all k [ [0, 1]
mathematical programs with probabilistic and z1, z2,
constraints.
As with the recourse models, we can f[kz1 ` (1 1 k)z2] > f(z1)kf(z2)11k.
view this formulation as an extension of When A2 is fixed, the probabilistically
deterministic LP formulations. Suppose constrained model may be stated as
that the constraints of a deterministic LP follows:
are represented in the form Ax > b. Under
uncertainty, suppose that we partition Minimize cx
these constraints as inequalities that con- subject to A1x > b1
tain only deterministic parameters and A2x 1 z 4 0
those that contain at least one random F(z) > p,
variable. The former (deterministic) con- L#x#U
straints will be denoted A1x > b1, and the
where F(z) denotes the joint cumulative
latter will be stated as a probabilistic con-
distribution function of the right-hand-
straint as follows: side vector, b 2 (that is, F(z) 4 P{b 2 # z}).
Minimize cx Prekopa [1989] has introduced a type of
subject to A1x > b1 polynomial multivariate distribution func-
P(A2x > b2) > p, tion that has a product form. This distribu-
L#x#U tion has been shown to be log-concave
and is particularly well suited for geomet-
where p [ (0, 1) denotes the reliability ric programming problems.
with which the system is required to Next we illustrate a case in which a
operate. probabilistic constraint leads to a noncon-
The probabilistic constraint in this for- vex feasible set.
mulation is known as a joint probabilistic Example 5: Nonconvex Feasible Set in
constraint because there may be multiple Probabilistically Constrained Problems
inequalities in the system A2x > b2. In gen- Consider the following problem:
eral, the set of points x that satisfy the con-
straint may be nonconvex. However, when Minimize x1 ` x2
the matrix A2 is known with certainty, subject to P(2x1 ` x2 > b1;
Prekopa [1971] provides conditions under x1 ` 2x2 > b2) > 0.5,
which convexity (of the feasible set) is
assured. where b 1 and b 2 are dependent random

INTERFACES 29:2 46
STOCHASTIC LINEAR PROGRAMMING

variables with joint probability mass func- function of b2 and let Kp be chosen so that
tion given by F(Kp) 4 p. The constraint P(a2x > b2) > p
can be written as F(a2x) > p, or equiva-
b1 b2 P(b 1 4 b1, b 2 4 b2)
lently, a2x > Kp.
0 1 0.5
Other special cases for which a probabi-
1 0 0.5.
listic constraint can be easily converted to
The feasible region for this example is a more standard type of constraint have
shown in Figure 3. Clearly, this set is not been studied. Prekopa [1995] provides an
convex. excellent summary of this subject. In clos-
One of the early stochastic- ing this section, we reiterate that probabil-
programming models studied by Charnes istically constrained models and recourse
and Cooper [1959] was based on multiple models need not be treated as mutually
probabilistic statements, such as P(a2ix > exclusive approaches for modeling uncer-
b2i) > pi, where i is a row index. In some tainty. In certain applications, it is worth-
applications, this notion of feasibility may while to combine the two approaches.
be appropriate. For example, in some ap- Alternative Models
plications within telecommunications- We have outlined the more popular ap-
network planning, analysts often specify proaches in stochastic programming. To
the grade of service for each type of cus- extend the scope of stochastic program-
tomer. Hence the grade-of-service require- ming models, researchers have proposed
ment for each type of customer may be some alternative models. We shall com-
stated in the form of a single probabilistic ment on these more recent approaches.
constraint. To ensure that a meaningful Integrated Chance Constraints
model results, one must carefully capture Prekopa [1973] and Klein Haneveld
the various customers competition for the [1986] have proposed models with so-
network resources. For example, in addi- called integrated chance constraints (ICC).
tion to the probabilistic constraints, one ICCs can be thought of as offering a bal-
may use a network-flow model to capture ance between recourse models and chance
the manner in which the network will be (probabilistic) constraint models. That is,
loaded and thus the potential for blocked ICCs can be used to constrain the expected
calls. In such cases, one can write probabi- or average behavior of some phenomena.
listic constraints involving a single in- In contrast to probabilistic constraints,
equality using the inverse of the cumula- which are interpreted as imposing reliabil-
tive distribution function. ity requirements, ICCs may be used to
Consider a single probabilistic con- constrain availability, average perfor-
straint, in which b2 is a one-dimensional mance, and other similar measures. One of
random variable, the vector a2 is determin- the main advantages of this approach is
istic, and we wish to satisfy that, unlike probabilistically constrained
models that may result in nonconvex fea-
P(a2x > b 2) > p.
sible sets, models based on ICCs are often
Let F denote the cumulative distribution convex.

MarchApril 1999 47
SEN, HIGLE

Figure 3: This is an illustration of the feasible region for Example 5. The shaded region depicts
the set of points that satisfy the probabilistic constraint. The lack of convexity is readily appar-
ent.

To motivate the discussion, consider a hand sides are random, some of his results
situation in which a target budget b [ 5 may be extended to convex functions,
is given, and the cost associated with whose parameters may be random vari-
plan x is given by the random variable cx. ables. A particularly relevant convex func-
A probabilistic constraint that restricts the tion that arises in stochastic programming
probability of exceeding the budget to be is the recourse function, and it gives rise
at most 1 1 p may be written as to models that can be called recourse con-
strained models. To understand this class
P{cx # b} > p. of models, recall that in a standard two-
stage stochastic program with recourse the
That is, cost overruns may be permissible
first-stage decision often denotes a strate-
in extraordinary circumstances. This can
gic plan, while the recourse function asso-
be represented using an ICC by restricting
ciated with the second stage denotes the
the long-term-cost overrun to be at most
expected cost of future operations. Such
a:
recourse models do not explicitly ac-
E[Max {cx 1 b, 0}] # a. knowledge a decision makers attitude to-
ward variability in costs associated with
While Klein Haneveld focuses on linear the second stage. For example, in a
constraints whose coefficients or right- capacity-planning study for a large auto-

INTERFACES 29:2 48
STOCHASTIC LINEAR PROGRAMMING

mobile manufacturer, Eppen, Martin, and makers often wish to investigate trade-offs
Schrage [1989] initially studied a pure between means and variances of costs (or
two-stage stochastic program with re- profits) associated with their decisions.
course. In this application, l(x) denoted the In an attempt to model such trade-offs,
amount of lost revenue associated with Mulvey, Vanderbei, and Zenios [1995]
capacity plan x, which varied by scenario propose a model referred to as the robust
and thus was a random quantity. The ini- optimization (RO) model. Assuming that
tial application of stochastic programming the random variable is discrete, they sug-

used the term E[l(x)] in the objective func- gest that an apparent mean-variance type
tion, which resulted in a two-stage sto- of model may be stated as follows:
chastic linear program with recourse. An Minimize c1x1 ` o pszs ` h soS ps(zs 1 z)2
s[S [
examination of the results of this model
revealed that the minimization of expected subject to A1x1 4 b1
losses yielded inadequate solutions. There Bsx1 ` A2sx2s 4 b2s s [ S
was a clear need to guide the choice of ca- c2sx2s 4 zs
pacity plans toward those that held lost o pszs 4 z
s[S
revenues below a given target, b. To con- L1 # x1 # U1, L2 # x2s # U2 s [ S.
strain the downside risk, Eppen, Martin,
and Schrage [1989] used a recourse- In this formulation, the parameter h . 0
constrained model to successfully restrict may be interpreted as the weight assigned
the decision space to plans that would be to the variance of the random variable z
considered acceptable. Higle and Sen whose outcomes are {zs}, each occurring
[1995] discuss statistical algorithms for this with probability {ps}. It is typically in-
class of problems. tended as a measure of the decision mak-
Robust Optimization ers aversion to objective function variabil-
Stochastic programming has had several ity. A solution to this formulation depends
on the choice of h and the units used in
successes in portfolio-planning models
the formulation. While it is reminiscent of
[Carino et al. 1994; Kusy and Ziemba
the Markowitz mean-variance portfolio-
1986]. While these models optimize an
optimization model, we caution that the
expected-value criterion, they often in-
objective differs from the more appropri-
clude constraints on downside risk that
ate objective
can be modeled using convex functions
[Carino et al. 1994; Dembo 1989]. How- 1)] ` hVar[h(x
Minimize c1x1 ` E[h(x 1)].
ever, financial planners are often inclined
to model variance as a measure of risk. As in previous sections, h(x1) denotes a
This approach has its roots in Markowitz random variable representing the cost of
[1959], which was based on such assump- the optimal second-stage response. The
tions as normally distributed returns. discrepancy between the two models is at-
While these assumptions may not neces- tributed to the fact that zs need not reflect
sarily hold in some applications, decision the optimal second-stage cost for scenario

MarchApril 1999 49
SEN, HIGLE

s. That is, the random variables z and h though x22 is not. Table 1 summarizes the
need not be identical. Once an outcome of failure of the RO model to achieve cost
the random variable has been revealed, minimization.
the appropriate response in the second The data in Table 1 illustrate the dra-
stage is one that yields the least cost. matic differences between the second-
Hence because z is generally different stage response assumed by the RO model
from h, the RO model paints a misleading and the least-cost second-stage response.
picture of the variance of the second-stage For example, when x1 4 10, x21 is the
objective. The following example illus- same in both cases. However, x22 varies
trates this discrepancy. dramatically between the two models. The
Example 6: A Comparison of the Robust RO model uses the suboptimal response x22
and Mean-Variance Models 4 10.5. This artificially increases the cost
Consider a two-stage problem in which of scenario 2 to bring it closer to that of
the first-stage decision is to be chosen in scenario 1, thereby providing the appear-
the range 0 # x1 # 10 with c1 4 16. Sup- ance of less variability. In our example, the
pose that the second-stage data are uncer- ineffiency induced by the RO model re-
tain, with scenarios described as follows: sults in a cost increase of more than 400
For scenario 1, p1 4 0.1 and c21 4 1, A21 percent for the most likely scenario!
4 11, B1 4 3, b21 4 4, so that the con- For the given value of the first-stage
straint is an inequality of the form 3x1 1 x21 variable, x1, the robust model yields
# 4. The cost-minimizing response is x21 second-stage costs that are at least as large
4 Maximize {0, 3x1 1 4}. For scenario 2, p2 as those produced by the least-cost model,
4 0.9 and c22 4 2, A22 4 12, B2 4 1, b22 with probability one. That is, the least-cost
4 5, so that the constraint is an inequality responses, which one obtains from re-
of the form x1 1 2x22 # 5. As in scenario course models, dominate the responses
1, the form of the cost-minimizing re- from the RO model. This is always the
sponse is x22 4 Maximize {0, 0.5x1 1 2.5}. case for the RO model, which provides a
With these data and h 4 1, we solve the strong argument against its use.
robust optimization model and obtain x1 To further illustrate the pitfalls associ-
4 10, x21 4 26, and x22 4 10.5. In this so- ated with the RO model, we solve the
lution, x21 is a cost-minimizing value, al- mean-variance problem with h 4 1 and
1
obtain x*1 4 6 o6 and x21
* 4 14.5 and
7
2nd-Stage Solutions x22 4 12. The mean and variance of h(x
* o 1*)
are 2.45 and 15.8, respectively. Thus, we
Robust Least Cost
see that the solutions obtained from the
so-called robust models are, in general,
x21 26 (26) 26 (26)
x22 10.5 (21) 2.5 (5) structurally unrelated to the solutions ob-
expected cost 21.5 7.1 tained from the mean-variance recourse
variance 2.25 39.69 model and are dominated by the solutions
Table 1: Output from robust and least-cost obtained from the least-cost model.
models.

INTERFACES 29:2 50
STOCHASTIC LINEAR PROGRAMMING

Multistage Recourse Models important to adopt a modeling framework


With two-stage recourse models, all un- that reflects this interperiod dependence
certainties are resolved when the second- among the random elements and the deci-
stage decision is made. However, in many sions made.
decision-making problems, observations of As with the two-stage models, we begin
the random variables are revealed sequen- with a generic multistage linear program.
tially over time, and decisions are made In the following, T denotes the number of
over multiple periods. For example, in stages being modeled, xt denotes a deci-
production-and-inventory problems, fore- sion vector in stage t, and so forth.
casted demands are eventually replaced
by firm orders, so that production deci- T

sions are made in anticipation of current Minimize o ctxt


t41
and future demands. More generally,
subject to A1x1 4 b1
long-range planning is a multistage deci- t11
sion process in which resources are com- o Bktxk ` Atxt 4 bt t [ {2, 3, . . ., T}.
k41
mitted over time, and the goal is to pro-
vide a smooth transition into the future. Lt # xt # Ut t [ {1, 2, . . ., T}.
Such applications lead very naturally to
multistage recourse models. Multistage In this formulation, a variable xt may ap-
models have the advantage of a long- pear in any of the constraints associated
range outlook, which avoids myopic with stage t, t ` 1, . . ., T, but it does not
choices in the first period. An important appear prior to stage t.
byproduct of this planning process is the As in the two-stage models, c1, A1, b1, L1,
generation of recourse plans for alterna- and U1 correspond to the immediate deci-
tive scenarios in the future. From an orga- sion x1 and thus are not subject to uncer-
nizational viewpoint, this permits greater tainty. In general, the remaining data ele-
responsiveness at lower cost. ments may contain random variables.
A key feature of multistage models is Moreover, these random variables gener-
the evolution of the random phenomena ally depend on the values of random vari-
over time. That is, the decision problem ables that precede them. For this reason, it
faced in a given period, t, can vary dra- is often convenient to depict the scenarios
matically, depending on the outcomes re- using a tree, in which the outcomes in one
alized in previous periods. For example, in stage branch out from the outcomes in the
a hydroelectric-power-planning problem, previous stage (Figure 4).
rainfall may be correlated across time pe- Each complete path through this tree is
riods. In addition, decisions made in one known as a scenario, and thus this struc-
period can influence the options available ture is known as a scenario tree. In Figure
in future periods. Finally, at any given 4, there are eight scenarios, corresponding
time, planning decisions made under dry to the terminal nodes, which evolve over
conditions vary dramatically from those three stages. In general, the evolution of
made under wet conditions. It is therefore the scenarios neednt be balanced; some

MarchApril 1999 51
SEN, HIGLE

Figure 4: The scenario tree is a useful mechanism for depicting the manner in which events
may unfold. It can also be used to guide the formulation of a multistage SLP model.

scenarios might be completed before oth- mechanism for formulating multistage re-
ers. For this reason, it is convenient to in- course problems. With the evolution of
dex the nodes of the tree, a, b, c, . . ., as time, outcomes are revealed sequentially,
depicted. Of course, each node has a cor- and one can trace a sample path through
responding stage index (for example, node the tree, as indicated by the bold line in
c appears in the second stage), so that one Figure 4. An underlying tree structure ex-
can recover stage information easily if ists even when one uses continuous ran-
necessary. dom variables. However, in this case, the
The scenario tree provides a convenient branches span a continuum, rather than

INTERFACES 29:2 52
STOCHASTIC LINEAR PROGRAMMING

discrete points as in Figure 4. The set of Ln # xn # Un.


nodes of the scenario tree will be denoted
1. With each node n [ 1, S(n) , 1 de- where R(n) , 1 denotes the set of nodes
notes the set of nodes that are immediate from which node n is reachable.
successors to n. We will refer to a node s Because the LP formulation of the multi-
as being reachable from node n if a sample stage problem grows so rapidly, people
path exists on which node n precedes commonly use decomposition techniques
node s. Associated with each node n is Pn, to solve multistage recourse problems.
which denotes the probability of reaching These techniques frequently begin with a
node n, as well as the decision vector xn, restatement of the problem. We discuss
which denotes the action that will be two alternative forms below.
adopted if the sample path passes through A Recursive Formulation on a Scenario
node n. Furthermore, with each node n, Tree
we will associate constraints that will be in This formulation is amenable to compu-
force if a sample path passes through that tations that combine dynamic-
node. The rows corresponding to this programming-based recursive calculations.
node may be referenced by the name rn. To simplify the notation, we state the fol-
The constraint matrix (input/output ma- lowing recursive formulation under the
trix) corresponding to node n will be de- assumption that Bn,s is nonzero only if s [
noted An. Furthermore, if a decision xn has S(n) (that is, s is an immediate successor of
an impact on constraints for a node s that n). With this assumption we simplify the
is reachable from node n, then I/O coeffi- notation by writing Bs [ Bn,s. The problem
cients reflecting this impact will be de- that resides at node n may be stated as
noted by the matrix Bn,s. hn(xl(n)) 4 Minimize cnxn ` E[hs(n)(xn)]
We may now formulate the LP by fol- subject to Anxn 4 bn 1 Bnxl(n)
lowing the paths of the scenario tree. For Ln # xn # Un
each node n, the variable xn has an objec-
tive row coefficient given by Pncn. In addi- where l(n) denotes the immediate prede-
tion, the matrix An and right-hand-side cessor to node n on the path from 1 to n
vector bn appear in rows referenced by rn, and s(n) is a random variable that denotes
and Bn,s appears in rows referenced by rs, a successor of node n. If s is a successor to
where node s is reachable from node n. node n, then P(s(n) 4 s) is simply the con-
In general, we can formulate this prob- ditional probability that node s is reached,
lem in a manner that is analogous to the given that node n is reached, which is pro-
two-stage SLP with general recourse as portional to Ps.
follows: In this formulation, which is analogous
to the decomposed formulation of the
Minimize o Pncnxn
n[1 two-stage SLP with general recourse, the
subject to o Bsnxs ` Anxn 4 bn successor to a node on the scenario tree is
[
s R(n)
a random variable, s(n). With the root
n [1 node designated as node 1, the master

MarchApril 1999 53
SEN, HIGLE

problem may be stated as follows: statement of the implementability require-


ment for two-stage problems as (4). To de-
Minimize c1x1 ` E[hs(1)(x1)]
velop an analogous formulation for multi-
subject to A1x1 4 b1
stage problems, recall that with each node
L1 # x1 # U1.
n, we associate the decision vector xn. The
Although this formulation is stated in set of scenarios passing through node n
the form of a decision-making problem on will be denoted Sn. Let {yts}Tt41 denote the
a tree, it can also be stated in a recursive sequence of decisions associated with sce-
manner using time as the index over nario s, where t denotes a stage in the de-
which the recursion is performed. How- cision problem. The implementability re-
ever, since this form provides no added quirement may be imposed on the
insights, we omit this alternate form. planning variables by the following con-
A Scenario Formulation straint in which t(n) represents the stage in
One of the more important issues in which node n appears:
multistage models is the notion of imple-
xn 1 yt(n),s 4 0 s [ Sn.
mentability. Since information is revealed
sequentially, two or more scenarios may There are alternative (equivalent) ways to
share a common sequence of outcomes for state this, and the choice depends largely
the first k periods (k , T, where T denotes on the choice of the solution algorithm (for
the number of periods). For example, sce- example, Rockafellar and Wets [1991]).
narios 1 and 2, which correspond to the One of the advantages of stating the im-
paths a-b-d-h and a-b-d-i in Figure 4, have plementability restrictions explicitly in the
the same sequence of outcomes in the first model is that every scenario can be treated
two periods (that is, a-b, b-d) and hence independently, with coordination being
these two scenarios are indistinguishable provided through the implementibility
until the third period. To maintain imple- constraints. Hence what remains to be
mentability, the decisions associated with stated is the deterministic dynamic formu-
these two scenarios must be identical in lation for each scenario s. For each sce-
the first two periods. In general, if two nario s, let (cts, {Bkts}k,t, Ats, bts) denote the
scenarios share the same sequence of vectors and matrices that are associated
nodes during the first k periods, they T
with s, and let {yts}t41 denote the decision
share the same information base during vectors associated with each period under
these periods, and consequently, decisions scenario s. Let ps denote the probability
associated with such scenarios must be that scenario s occurs. The multistage
identical through period k. This require- formulation may be stated as fol-
ment is known as the implementability (or lows:
nonanticipativity) condition. The formula-
tion on the tree honors this requirement Minimize o ps [c1y1s ` ot ctsyts]
s[S
implicitly.
subject to A1y1s 4 b1 s [ S
The scenario formulation of the two-
stage SLP with general recourse includes a
oBktsyks ` Atsyts 4 bts
k,t

INTERFACES 29:2 54
STOCHASTIC LINEAR PROGRAMMING

t [ {2, . . ., T}, s [ S practical considerations in yield manage-


xn 1 yt(n),s 4 0 s [ S(n), n [ 1 ment, and more effective SP approaches
Lts # yts # Uts, t [ {1, . . ., T}, s [ S. have been developed. However, we re-
strict our illustration to PNLP since a dis-
This multistage scenario formulation is a cussion of extensions that allow a more re-
straightforward extension of the two-stage alistic model would take us too far afield.
scenario formulation. The main difference In the yield-management problem that
is that the implementability restrictions for we consider, passenger itineraries are
the multistage problem are somewhat comprised of flight segments. The demand
more complicated than those for the two- for each itinerary is a random variable,
stage problem. and we wish to allocate flight-segment ca-
Applications pacities in such a way as to maximize the
In the past few years, there have been expected value of the profit obtained. For
numerous applications of models of the itinerary i, the demand random variable is
type we have discussed. We wont survey denoted di. If we let xi (a decision variable)
these applications. Instead, we describe denote the allocation of capacity for itiner-
one application from each of the main ary i, then the number of passengers
types of models we have discussed: served is given by Min{xi, di}. If the value
simple-recourse, general-recourse, proba- (fare) associated with itinerary i is as-
bilistically constrained, and multistage- sumed to be known and is denoted vi,
recourse models. With these applications, then the maximization of expected reve-
we shall try to span a variety of settings in nue may be written as
which SLP has been applied effectively.
We describe models for airline-yield man- Maximize o viE[Min{xi, di}].
i
agement, telecommunications-network
planning, flood control, and production- With each itinerary i, we associate an
and-inventory planning. incidence vector Ai, which consists of as
A Simple-Recourse Formulation for many elements as there are flight seg-
Airline Yield Management ments. If flight segment l is traveled by
One of the earliest applications of sto- passengers flying itinerary i, then the ele-
chastic programming discussed in the lit- ment ail 4 1; otherwise ail 4 0. Finally let
erature is the aircraft-allocation problem b denote the vector of capacities for legs of
[Ferguson and Dantzig 1956]. More re- the network. Assuming that one ignores
cently, the simple-recourse approach has the possibility of overbooking, the capac-
been applied to yield-management prob- ity constraint (in vector form) may be
lems in the airline industry. In the context written as
of this application, the formulation is
sometimes referred to as the probabilistic oi Aixi # b.
nonlinear program (PNLP) [Williamson
1992]. It turns out that the PNLP approach To view the yield-management problem
does not capture some of the important as a simple-recourse problem, consider the

MarchApril 1999 55
SEN, HIGLE

following formulation: throughout the country. Similarly, the


Federal Aviation Authority uses private-
Maximize o {vixi 1 E[hi(xi, di)]} line networks for interconnecting several
i

subject to o Aixi # b major airports.


i The telecommunication network com-
0 # xi, i prises a collection of points (nodes) be-
tween which requests for service (calls)
where
arise. The network is connected by a col-
hi(xi, di) 4 Minimize viz1
i lection of links. To satisfy a request for
subject to z`
i 1 z1
i 4 di 1 xi service, the system must allocate capacity
` 1
zi , zi > 0. (bandwidth) over a series of links that
connect the call origin and destination.
With this statement, hi(xi, di) 4 viMax(0, xi
Such a sequence is called a route. If no
1 di). It follows that the objective function
routes have enough capacity available to
vixi 1 E[hi(xi, di)] accommodate the request, it cannot be
4 vixi ` viE [Min(0, di 1 xi)] served. The problem is to determine link
capacities that minimize the expected
4 viE[Min(xi, di)],
number of unserved requests. Because of
as previously indicated. budgetary restrictions, the total capacity
Since PNLP results in a simple recourse available for allocation among the various
problem, it follows that the resulting links is constrained. This planning prob-
model is a convex separable program. lem lends itself to a natural two-stage pro-
While this is an attractive property, the gression of decisions. That is, one must
model itself is inadequate for reasons dis- determine the capacity of the links well
cussed by Talluri and van Ryzin [1996]. before the demand for service can be
A General-Recourse Model for known. Once the capacity decisions have
Telecommunications Network Planning been made, requests for service can be
The general-recourse model for routed in a manner that allows efficient
telecommunications-network planning is operation of the network.
presented by Sen, Doverspike, and To formulate the problem, let the first-
Cosares [1994]. They developed the model stage decision variables be defined as
to design networks that provide private-
xj 4 the amount of capacity to be added to
line telecommunication services. Medium
the jth link.
to large corporations that need high speed
and reliable communications for data The parameters for the first stage are
transfer, video conferencing, and so forth
use private lines. An example of a cus- n 4 the number of links that are to be con-
tomer for private-line services is a broker- sidered for capacity expansion,
age company with its headquarters on b 4 the total capacity that can be allocated
Wall Street and its research, financial- throughout the network, and
planning, and computing teams dispersed d 4 the m dimensional random variable

INTERFACES 29:2 56
STOCHASTIC LINEAR PROGRAMMING

that represents demands associated with subject to o o Airfir # x ` e


i r[R(i)
the m point-to-point pairs served by the
network. o
r[R(i)
fir ` si 4 di i 4 1, . . ., m

With this notation, we summarize the f, s > 0.


model as follows: Within this statement of the routing prob-
lem, the first set of constraints ensures that
Minimize E[h(x, d)]
n
link utilization does not exceed link capac-
subject to o xj # b
j41
ity, while the second set of constraints en-
sures that demand that cannot be routed is
x > 0. counted as unserved.
A Probabilistically Constrained Flood-
The function h(x, d) represents the number
Control Model
of unserved requests when the demand
This model was first developed by
for service is given by d and the capacity
Prekopa and Szantai [1978]. Simply stated,
expansion plan is denoted x. This function
the problem is to determine reservoir ca-
is represented by the optimal value func-
pacities to be used to control flooding that
tion of a second-stage program. To define
may occur as a result of random stream
this program, let
inputs. A unique feature of this model is
m 4 the number of point-to-point pairs that it includes both a penalty cost (as in
served by the network, simple-recourse models) and probabilistic
R(i) 4 the set of routes that can be used to constraints that impose limits on the prob-
connect point-to-point pair i, ability that the water level rises above
Air 4 an incidence vector in 5n whose jth reservoir capacities. However, to focus the
element is 1 if link j belongs to route r [ discussion on probabilistic constraints, we
R(i), and is 0 otherwise, and neglect the penalty terms that appear in
e 4 is a vector in 5n of current (existing) the original formulation.
link capacities. Let
J 4 the number of reservoir sites in the
The decision variables for the second
river basin (these sites are fixed),
stage are as follows:
cj 4 the cost per unit of capacity of
fir 4 the number of calls associated with reservoir j,
point-to-point pair i that are served via uj 4 the maximum capacity of reservoir j,
route r [ R(i), xj 4 the capacity of reservoir j (a decision
variable), and
si 4 the number of unserved requests
I 4 the number of tributaries in the river
associated with point-to-point pair i. basin.
The network-flow model used to route The random variables are
calls is ni 4 the amount of water input to tribu-
tary i [ I.
m
h(x, d) 4 Minimize o si
i41
The task of modeling floods is fairly in-
volved. In essence, Prekopa and Szantai

MarchApril 1999 57
SEN, HIGLE

assume that flooding occurs when the uct i using process j in period t,
stream flow on a tributary exceeds its ca- aijk 4 the number of units of resource k re-
pacity. Reservoirs can be used on certain quired to produce a unit of product i by
using process j,
tributaries to contain stream flow and pre-
hit 4 the cost for each unit of product i
vent it from continuing to a downstream
held in inventory at the end of period t,
location. This leads to a system of linear and
inequalities pit 4 the cost for each unit of product i on
back-order at the end of period t.
T n # Rx,
The uncertain parameters are the
which indicate that at each point of inter- following:
est stream flow is contained. That is, T n dit 4 the demand for product i in period t;
models accumulated upstream flows and dits denotes the value of dit associated with
Rx models accumulated capacities. Thus, if scenario s.
we let p denote the desired reliability of bkt 4 the amount of resource k available in
the reservoir system, the following formu- period t;
lation results: bkts denotes the value of of bkt associated
Minimize ocjxj
with scenario s, and
j ps 4 the probability with which scenario s
subject to 0 #xj # uj j 4 1, . . ., J occurs. Note that
P{T n # Rx} > p. ps 4 P{d it 4 dits, b ikt 4 bikts, t 4 1,. . .,T}.
Finally, the decision variables are as
A Multistage Production-and-Inventory follows:
Model Xijts 4 the number of units of product i
This model is an extension of a deter- produced by process j in period t under
ministic process-selection model presented scenario s, and
by Johnson and Montgomery [1974, Exam- Iits 4 the inventory of product i in period t
ple 4-11, pp. 243244]. Within the model, under scenario s.
each product can be produced by several As time progresses, the collection of out-
alternative processes. However, product comes that may unfold can be organized
demand and resource availability are into a scenario tree. In addition, a node n
modeled as random variables. The objec- in the scenario tree corresponds to a par-
tive is to minimize the expected produc- ticular time period, t(n) and summarizes a
tion costs, including inventory and back- unique unfolding of the random events
order costs, over multiple periods. Given from the initial period until period t(n). To
the nature of inventory and back-order ensure that the model yields solutions that
quantities, a multistage model with simple are implementable, one must ensure that
recourse results. at any given time, scenarios that share a
Let common history are constrained to yield a
T 4 the number of time periods under common production-and-inventory plan at
consideration, that time. Thus, let 1 denote the set of
cijt 4 the per-unit production cost of prod- nodes in the scenario tree. For each n [ 1,

INTERFACES 29:2 58
STOCHASTIC LINEAR PROGRAMMING

let S(n) 4 {s | s passes through node n}. terest in stochastic-programming models


The implementability constraints may be among practitioners. Furthermore, suc-
stated as follows: cesses with industrial applications (for ex-
ample, those of Bellcore, General Motors,
Xijt(n)s 4 Yijn i, j, n and s [ S(n) and Russell Financial Services) have moti-
Iit(n)s 4 Hin i, j, n and s [ S(n). vated practitioners to include uncertainty
In this fashion, the variables {Yijn} and within decision-making models.
{Hin} represent the production-and- Assessing the Need for Stochastic
inventory plan associated with node n in Programming Models
the scenario tree. The starting point for many stochastic-
With the above parameters, the multi- programming models is a linear-
stage stochastic model may be stated as programming model. If some of the pa-
follows. rameters in an LP are uncertain and the
LP appears to be fairly sensitive to
Minimize o ps[o cijtXijts ` changes in these parameters, then it may
s ijt
be appropriate to consider a stochastic-
o (hitI`its ` pitI1its)]
it programming model. For example, con-
subject to oaijkXijts # bkts k, t, s sider a blending model that uses LP to rec-
ij
ommend how to produce a blend with
1Iits ` Ii,t11,s ` o Xijts 4 Dits i, t, s specific characteristics by combining dif-
j
ferent types of ingredients (for example,
Iits 1 I` 1
its ` Iits 4 0 i, t, s
types of crude oil or mineral ore). In some
Yijn 1 Xij,t(n),s 4 0 s [ S(n), n [ 1
instances, the contents of these ingredients
Hin 1 Iits 4 0 s [ S(n), n [ 1
may vary. If the optimal blend remains
Xijts > 0, I` 1
its > 0, Iits > 0 i, j, t, s.
relatively unaffected within the range of
Whenever the product demands are variation, then one can justify the certainty
treated as independent random variables assumption of linear programming. On
in such multiproduct models, the size of the other hand, if the variations cause the
the scenario tree grows dramatically. optimal blend to vary substantially, then it
However, if these demands are known to may be worth pursuing a stochastic-
depend on some external parameters, such programming model. In such a case, one
as leading economic indicators (for exam- can use LP sensitivity analysis for diag-
ple, interest rate), then one can make the nostic purposes and stochastic program-
formulation depend on a scenario tree as- ming to obtain an optimal blend.
sociated with the economic indicator. For In many instances, one needs stochastic-
some applications, such a tree may be programming models because of a paucity
more manageable. of information. Such a situation is likely to
Conclusions arise with the introduction of new prod-
As competition increases, we need mod- ucts or services. For example, a telecom-
els that help hedge against future uncer- munications company that wants to pro-
tainties. This need has sparked greater in- vide a call-tracing service in its regional

MarchApril 1999 59
SEN, HIGLE

area may try to obtain information on the possible. As one might expect, a model
usage of this new service in multiple with few random variables is easier to rep-
ways. It may look at usage data from a resent for computational algorithms and
similar demographic region in a different may be more amenable to exact solution
part of the country. It could also obtain using deterministically motivated algo-
surrogate data from a computer simula- rithms, such as the method developed by
tion model. And finally, it could carry out Rockafellar and Wets [1991]. In many in-
a market survey or perform a test within a stances, it may also be possible to derive
small segment of the region. All of these deterministic upper and lower bounds on
approaches provide estimates of market the value of the stochastic program, as in
demand for the new service, and they are Birge [1982]. Nevertheless, one can easily
likely to be different. With a stochastic- run up against very large-scale stochastic-
programming model, the company can in- programming models for which determin-
clude these alternative forecasts within istic methods soon become inadequate. In
one decision-making model to produce a such instances, sample-based algorithms,
more robust plan. such as the stochastic decomposition
Data Requirements method [Higle and Sen 1991], provide a
Many of the data requirements for practical solution approach.
stochastic-linear-programming models are For any of the approaches mentioned
similar to those of linear-programming above, data on the random variables are
models. The additional data in stochastic usually provided to the algorithms via the
programming are needed to represent un- SMPS format developed by Birge et al.
certainty. In some applications, one repre- [1987]. This data format is based on the
sents uncertainty by subjectively assessing MPS format of mathematical-
weights to assign to possible future sce- programming systems and provides a con-
narios. In such cases, one can build the venient representation of random vari-
stochastic-programming model using few ables in a stochastic-linear program. A
scenarios and set up the model as a large- more recent framework for multistage sto-
scale linear program. Such models are of- chastic programs is available within the
ten solved using off-the-shelf LP software. OSL system marketed by IBM. Finally, the
The case study (from GM) reported by stochastic-programming community is
Eppen, Martin, and Schrage [1989] is such working toward an object-oriented stan-
a model. In many applications, however, dard for representing this class of prob-
econometric models and forecasting sys- lems. We expect it to develop such a stan-
tems provide detailed information regard- dard over the next several years.
ing some of the random variables. Under Acknowledgment
these circumstances, it is difficult to cap- This work was supported in part by
ture the randomness via a handful of sce- Grant No. NSF-DMII-9414680 from the
narios. Nevertheless, it is advantageous to National Science Foundation.
be able to represent the uncertainty in References
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