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CHAPTER EIGHTEEN
Stephen H. Penman
The web page for Chapter 18 runs under the following headings:
Earnings Prediction
Readers Corner
This chapter lays out an approach to assessing the quality of the accounting in financial
statements. The approach is a structured one that ensures that all aspects of the financial
statements are covered. The output is a series of diagnostics that can indicate possible
quality problems.
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Chapter 18 - Analysis of the Quality of Financial Statements
Much of the analysis in Part Two of the book bears on the issue of earnings quality (see
the section below on Comprehensive Quality Analysis), so this Chapter is really a
capping off of material that precedes it.
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Chapter 18 - Analysis of the Quality of Financial Statements
Current financial statements are the basis for forecasting future financial statements (in
the pro forma analysis of Part Three of the book) from which valuations are made.
Clearly, reliance on poor quality financial statements leads to poor quality pro formas and
poor valuations. Further, when accounting issues surface for a firm, the stock price
typically takes a big hit. The analyst tries to avoid taking that hit by a diligent appraisal of
the quality of the accounting statements. More proactively, the analyst who anticipates
emerging accounting problems can profit from that prediction (by shorting the stock).
If you reflect on the material covered in the book to this point, you will appreciate that
much of that material particularly the analysis in Part Two is concerned with defining
quality accounting numbers to use in equity valuation:
1. The choice of accrual accounting valuation models in Part I was based on the
observation that the cash accounting implied by Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
is not good quality accounting for valuation purposes. That is, free cash flow is
not a good measure of value added because it treats investment as a outflow of
value. The closing section of Chapter 17 titled, The Quality of Cash Accounting
and Discounted Cash Flow Analysis comes back to this theme. General Electric
consistently generates negative free cash flow, as does Home Depot and
Starbucks, but these are valuable companies. Of course, accrual accounting, with
its reliance on estimates to correct the problems with cash flows, can also be poor
quality and thus the need for accrual-based valuations to be supported by a
sound analysis of the quality of the accrual accounting.
3. The separation of net operating assets (NOA) from net financial obligations
(NFO) in balance sheet reformulations (Chapter 10) distinguishes assets and
liabilities that are well-measured (typically the NFO) from those that are not (the
NOA). We made good use of this distinction in valuation (in Chapter 14) by
recognizing that, for the well-measured NFO, the valuation is complete in the
balance sheet so pro forma analysis is not required. Of course we always
challenge the quality of balance sheet measures so that, even if marketable equity
securities are marked to market in the balance sheet, we do incorporate that
market value in a valuation if we feel that the market value is a bubble price.
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Chapter 18 - Analysis of the Quality of Financial Statements
5. The distinction between core income and non-core income (Chapter 13) is a
distinction between types of income that have different implications for the future
and thus are different quality. Income from pension assets must not be confused
with core income from sales, for example. Chapter 13, indeed, is a prelude to the
quality analysis in Chapter 18. With its discussion of restructuring charges and
their bleed-backs, it introduces the notion of shifting income between periods with
accrual estimates. The IMB case (M13.3) is a good introduction to Chapter 18.
The Accounting Quality Watch at the end of a number of preceding chapters summarized
the quality issues you have run into prior to this chapter. This chapter provides the
capstone to the quality analysis of the earlier chapters.
Heres the key point to appreciate in an analysis of earnings quality: Accrual accounting
is a set of rules that determine in which period earnings are to be recognized; with some
discretion allowed, accrual accounting can shift income between periods. Current income
can be increased (with accounting methods) only by reducing future income (thus
borrowing from the future.) Decreasing current income (with accounting methods) has
the consequence of increasing future income (saving for the future). With the
forecasting of future income in mind (for valuation), current income must therefore be
tested if it is to be relied on as an indicator of future income.
Because net financial expenses (NFE) are usually well measured, earnings quality
analysis focuses on operating income (OI). From earlier in the book (Chapter 8), we
know that the following relation always holds:
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Chapter 18 - Analysis of the Quality of Financial Statements
Free cash flow is a relatively hard number although one must be attentive to firms
timing cash flows (see Chapter 10). The change in net operating assets, NOA is the
relatively soft number so is the primary number to be analyzed. Much of Chapter 17 is
designed to do this. Note that
So, NOA and any manipulation of operating income comes from two sources:
The expression for operating income (OI) here shows that, any manipulation of income
must leave a trail in the balance sheet through the amount of NOA. Following that trail
to changes in accounts receivable, accrued expenses, deferred revenues, etc. is the
exercise of a sound quality analysis. Many of the quality diagnostics in Chapter 18
amount to defining the trail to be followed to challenge the NOA (and thus the operating
income) reported for a period.
After reading Chapter 18, you might get the impression that GAAP accrual accounting
has a lot of quality problems. The financial scandals on the early 2000s reinforce that
impression. GAAP accounting has a number of deficiencies, most of which have been
highlighted in this book. But we must have a sense of perspective. While remaining
skeptical about the accounting in financial reports, we must remember that accrual
accounting, in principle, serves the valuation analyst well. It might be worthwhile, at this
point, to go back to Chapters 2 and 4 where the basic principles of accrual accounting
and particularly its positive features are emphasized.
Lets try to weigh the good and bad features of GAAP accounting. First, some
problems with GAAP accounting, most of which are covered earlier in the book.
1. The accounting for the shareholders equity statement is poor. In particular, gains
and losses are not recognized when shares are issued or repurchased at a price
different from market value. This results in hidden gains and losses (mostly
losses) when warrants, convertible bonds, convertible preferred stock, put and call
options, and employee stock options are involved. (Chapter 9)
2. GAAPs emphasis on Net Income and EPS and the reporting of Other
Comprehensive Income in the equity statement can obscure the profitability
picture. For example, firms can cherry pick realized gains into Net Income
while reporting unrealized losses in the equity statement.
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Chapter 18 - Analysis of the Quality of Financial Statements
3. As a consequence of the poor accounting for claims that are contingent on a firms
stock price, contingent liabilities are omitted from the balance sheet. For example,
the value of the option overhang that is important to valuation is omitted. (Chapter
14 has the remedy)
4. Gains on pension assets are netted to operating costs in the income statement,
distorting margins. (Chapter 13)
5. The cash flow statement does not make a clean distinction between cash from
operating/investment activities and cash from financing activities. (Chapter 11)
7. Liabilities are omitted from the balance sheet, in particular operating leases,
obligations with respect to special entities, and the option overhang. (Chapter 20)
8. The lack of disclosure can be frustrating to the analyst. Here are some
observations, along with some recommendations:
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Chapter 18 - Analysis of the Quality of Financial Statements
As we have emphasized in this book, the basic features of GAAP are desirable from
the equity analysts point of view:
1. With the exception of fair value accounting for securities and some financial
assets, equity prices are not in the financial statements. This suits the analyst, for
she wishes to use the accounting to challenge stock prices so does not want the
accounting to reflect those prices. During the technology boom of the 1990s,
commentators who justified high stock prices relative to book values assailed
accounting for not recognizing the intangible assets. One saw calculations where
analysts measured the value of intangibles as the difference between the value of
tangible assets (with some premium applied) and (bubble) market values for the
whole firm. With the exceptions noted above, GAAP does not make this mistake;
GAAP does not bring prices into financial statements. Quality accounting
recognizes that market prices are inherently speculative, for they are based on
beliefs about the future.
2. Revenue recognition and matching. Shareholders buy future earnings and thus
speculate as to what those earnings might be when they buy shares. But sound
accounting understands that the shareholder is best served if you dont mix what
you know with speculation about what you dont know. This restatement of the
reliability criterion, embraced under the FASBs Conceptual Framework, is also a
maxim of fundamental investing.
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Chapter 18 - Analysis of the Quality of Financial Statements
The move to more fair value accounting -- currently under discussion among
standard setters should proceed with care, particularly for non-financial
institutions. The danger is that we lose the information from revenue realization
and matching and substitute (possibly bubble) market prices or biased and
imprecise fair value estimates. Historical cost accounting provides information
(about the profitability of trading with customers) to inform about prices. Fair
value accounting often gets the information from prices, so may destroy the
ability to inform about prices.
3. Accrual accounting is, in principle, good accounting for equity analysis. This
accounting does, of course, invite some speculation in the estimation of accruals
that are needed to match revenues with expenses. This is the tension in earnings
measurement: quality earnings require accruals, but accruals are estimates that
can be poor quality. Auditors and directors are a check (ideally), but some
expenses like amortization and depreciation are intrinsically hard to measure.
For some costs, there may be no accounting solution. Expensing R&D
expenditures, for example, results in (gross) mismatching. But to capitalize and
amortize may just introduce arbitrary amortizations into the matching. The
reliability criterion overrides. Be it as it may, accounting quality is the less for the
inability to measure.
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Chapter 18 - Analysis of the Quality of Financial Statements
Fair value accounting involves marking assets and liabilities to fair value. It is applied
to a limited number of assets and liabilities, mainly financial assets, derivatives, and
trading and available-for-sale securities. However, firms have a fair value option to fair
value a wider range of assets and liabilities under FASB Statement 159 in the U.S. and
IAS 39 under IFRS.
FASB Statement 157 provides guidance for measuring fair value, distinguishing Level 1
fair values (where market prices in liquid markets indicate fair value), Level 2 (where
prices for the specific asset dont exist but can be inferred from other market data), and
Level 3 where the firm has to estimate market prices. In all cases the market price, or the
estimate market price, is the prices at which the firm could sell the asset or pay to be
relieved of the liability (so-called exit value).
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Chapter 18 - Analysis of the Quality of Financial Statements
Level 3 fair values clearly pose a quality problem: estimates contain error and can be
biased. The issues rose in the credit crisis of 2008-09 when banks had to estimate fair
values of assets (like collateralized debt obligations) that earlier had traded in liquid
market which then dried up. Any observed traded prices were suspect as depressed
prices or fire-sale prices that did not (some say) represent value to the banks holding
them. Clearly fair values come with a huge product warning label in this case.
But Level 1 fair values also pose a problem. First, traded prices may be bubble prices.
Indeed, some claimed that the 2008-09 credit crisis was due to banks booking fair value
profits as real estate price and the assets derived from them went up in a real estate
bubble. The higher profits and resultant higher bank capital reserves induced more bad
lending against fake value in real estate, leading to the crash. Remember our warning,
form as far back as Chapter 1, about putting prices in the financial statements. Second,
exit value is not necessarily value to the enterprise: the value as which a bank can sell
mortgage loans what someone else would pay is not the value to the bank from
working with its own customers to get through their credit difficulties and pay back the
loan. More so it the market price is a depressed price.
So, in a quality analysis, challenge fair values on the balance sheet and fair value gains
and losses reported in comprehensive income.
These and other issues are addressed in the following CEASA White Paper:
http://www4.gsb.columbia.edu/ceasa/research/papers/white_papers
Also see a CEASA paper by Doron Nissim on fair value accounting in the banking
industry:
http://www4.gsb.columbia.edu/ceasa/events/news/item/7636/Occasional+paper+on+f
air+value+policy+in+the+banking+industry+is+now+available+online
Chapter 8 of S. Penman, Accounting for Value, also provides a critique of fair value
accounting from the perspective of the fundamental investor.
Chapter 18 provides quite a few quality diagnostics, and some of them tell the same story.
One can combine measures into a single quality score that summarizes the information
that a set of financial statement measures convey as a whole. The following papers
contain examples.
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Chapter 18 - Analysis of the Quality of Financial Statements
This paper calculates a score that distinguishes financial well being among firms with
low price-to-book ratios.
Penman, S., and X. Zhang. 2004. Modeling sustainable earnings and P/E ratios with
financial statement analysis. Download the document at
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=318967
This paper weights a variety of measures to derive one composite score, an S score or
sustainable earnings score that ranges from zero to one. See the text.
S. Penman and X. Zhang, Modeling Sustainable Earnings and P/E Ratios with
Financial Statement Analysis at
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=318967
http://www.nowpublishers.com/product.aspx?product=ACC&doi=1400000004
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Chapter 18 - Analysis of the Quality of Financial Statements
The following paper discusses accounting quality issues that arose in the late 1990s
bubble:
Penman, S., The Quality of Financial Statements: Perspectives from the Recent
Stock Market Bubble, Accounting Horizons (Supplement 2003), 77-96. The
paper can be downloaded at:
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=319262
See also:
Penman, S., Quality Accounting for Equity Analysis, Emanuel Saxe Lecture,
Zicklin School of Business, Baruch College. Available at:
http://newman.baruch.cuny.edu/digital/saxe/toc.htm
Earnings Prediction
Chapter 18 adopts the idea that current (operating) earnings are of good quality if it is a
good predictor of future earnings. Accordingly, any method that predicts how future
earnings will be different from current earnings is in fact an exercise in earnings quality
analysis because it serves to correct the forecast that one would make solely on the
basis of reported earnings. There has been considerable research on predicting earnings
through financial statement analysis. Some of the relevant papers are:
Fairfield, P., R. Sweeney, and T. Yohn. 1996. Accounting Classification and the Predictive
Content of Earnings. The Accounting Review 71 (3): 337-355.
Fairfield, P., and T. Yohn. 2001. Using Asset Turnover and Profit Margin to Forecast
Changes in Profitability. Review of Accounting Studies 6 (4): 371-385.
Fama, E., and K. French. 2000. Forecasting Profitability and Earnings. Journal of
Business 73 (2): 161-175.
Freeman, R., Ohlson, J., and S. Penman. 1982. Book Rate-of-Return and Prediction of
Earnings Changes: An Empirical Investigation. Journal of Accounting Research
(Autumn): 639-653.
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Chapter 18 - Analysis of the Quality of Financial Statements
Nissim, D., and S. Penman. 2003. Financial Statement Analysis of Leverage and How It
Informs About Profitability and Price-to-book Ratios. Review of Accounting
Studies, Vol. 8, No. 4 (December 2003), 531-560.
Ou J., and S. Penman. 1989. Financial Statement Analysis and the Prediction of Stock
Returns. Journal of Accounting and Economics 11 (4): 295-329.
The material in the last section of Chapter 18 shows how a particular quality analysis
(that produces the S-Score) predicts stock returns. This is just one example of research
that shows that financial statement analysis predicts stock returns at least in the past.
Other findings are found in the papers below.
Abarbanell, J. and B. Bushee. 1997. Fundamental Analysis, Future Earnings, and Stock
Prices. Journal of Accounting Research 35 (1): 1-24.
Bernard, V., and J. Thomas. 1990. Evidence that Stock Prices do not Fully Reflect the
Implications of Current Earnings for Future Earnings. Journal of Accounting
Research 13: 305-340
Chan, K., L.Chan, N. Jagadeesh, and J. Lakonishok. 2001. Earnings Quality and Stock
Returns: The Evidence from Accruals. Working paper, National Taiwan
University and University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
Fairfield, P., J. Whisenant, and T. Yohn. 2003. Accrued Earnings and Growth:
Implications for Earnings Persistence and Market Mispricing. The Accounting
Review
Hribar, P. 2001. The Market Pricing of Components of Accruals. Working paper, Cornell
University.
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Chapter 18 - Analysis of the Quality of Financial Statements
Ou J., and S. Penman. 1989. Financial Statement Analysis and the Prediction of Stock
Returns. Journal of Accounting and Economics 11 (4): 295-329.
Ou J., and S. Penman. 1989. Accounting Measurement, Price Earnings Ratio, and the
Information-Content of Security Prices. Journal of Accounting Research 27: 111-
144.
Penman, S., and X. Zhang. 2002. Accounting Conservatism, Quality of Earnings, and
Stock Returns. The Accounting Review 77(2): 237-264.
Richardson, S., and R. Sloan. 2003. External Financing and Future Stock Returns.
Working paper, University of Michigan.
Richardson, S., R. Sloan, M. Soliman, and I. Tuna. 2002. Information in Accruals About
Earnings Persistence and Future Stock Returns. Working paper, University of
Michigan.
Thomas, J., and H. Zhang. 2002. Inventory Changes and Future Returns. Forthcoming,
Review of Accounting Studies.
Readers Corner
This supplement has already given you a lot of reading material! But here are a couple of
quality-of-earnings books you might look at:
Sherman, Young, and Collingwood, Profits You Can Trust: Spotting & Surviving
Accounting Landmines, Prentice-Hall, 2003.
Mulford and Comiskey, The Financial Numbers Game: Detecting Creative Accounting
Practices, Wiley, 2002.
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Chapter 18 - Analysis of the Quality of Financial Statements
Dichev, I., , J. Graham, and S. Rajgopal, Earnings Quality: Evidence from the Field.
Unpublished paper, 2012, Duke University and Emory University.
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