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Procedia CIRP 26 (2015) 30 34

12th Global Conference on Sustainable Manufacturing

Environmental Safety of the Region: New Approach to Assessment

Vladimir V. Glinskiya,*, Lyudmila K. Sergaa, Mariya S. Khvana
aNovosibirsk State University of Economics and Management, Novosibirsk, Russian Federation

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +7-913-396-7617; fax: +7-383-224-5910. E-mail address: s444@ngs.ru

Abstract

The ecology becomes a limiting factor for the sustainable development of the country in general, as well as its certain regions. The issue of
assessment of the level of ecological safety of territories arises.
The article considers the assessment technique of the composite index of Environmental Safety by aggregation of three indicators reflecting
social and economic development, ecological conditions and human capacity of the region. The aggregation is offered to be carried out by
means of the method of multivariate average. Official data of the Federal State Statistics Service is used for the calculation of indicators.
Original aggregate is divided into two or three groups by each indicator and composite index of environmental safety of the region. It makes it
possible to define a place of the region in space of indicators, to identify type of the studied territory by the level of environmental safety and to
develop effective strategies of ecological safety management both for a separate territorial unit and for homogeneous groups.
The suggested methodology makes it possible to obtain rather adequate estimates for main territorial levels of management - municipal,
subjective, district.

2014
2015 The
The Authors.
Authors.Published
Publishedby byElsevier
ElsevierB.V.
B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
Peer-review under responsibility of Assembly Technology and Factory Management/Technische Universitt Berlin.
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Peer-review under responsibility of Assembly Technology and Factory Management/Technische Universitt Berlin.
Keywords: Environmental Safety; Region; Assessment; Environmental Sustainability; Typology; Integrated Indicator.

Introduction statisticians More than two hundred scientific articles in

Ecological safety is an essential part of national security of
the state, a significant element of its participation in the
system of international security. The ecological situation in
the Russian Federation in its entirety is adverse, lying outside
critical level with downtrends in certain territories. As a result,
there is no growth of indicators of health of population or life
expectancy of population; the gap in life expectancy of men
and women is increasing, child and infant mortality is still
high. The ecology becomes a limiting factor for the
sustainable development of the country in general, as well as
its certain regions. The issue of assessment of the level of
ecological safety of territories arises.
Review of research on issues of measurements of level of
ecological safety
Ecological safety affects scientific interests of researchers
of the most different specialties: biologists, physicists,
ecologists, demographers, economists, mathematicians,
reviewed magazines have been published only over the last
years in Russia, tens theses on this topic have been defended.
The analysis of the research regarding the assessment of level
of ecological safety makes it possible to group authors by two
main concepts: technogenic and biospheric.
The technogenic concept - solution of environmental
problems consists in an environmental pollution assessment,
rationing of admissible pollution of various environments,
creation of clearing systems and resource-saving technologies.
This concept covers a wide range of shades, starting with a
complete negation of existence of ecological danger, except
local cases, and finishing with appeals for a sustainable
development which is understood as satisfaction of
requirements of the present and future generations of people,
i.e. actually comes down to combination of environment with
economic growth and natural growth of the population [1, 2,
3].
The biospheric concept represents empirical generalization
of all accumulated experimental material on the basis of
known laws of physics and biology. It is directed on definition

2212-8271 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Peer-review under responsibility of Assembly Technology and Factory Management/Technische Universitt Berlin.
doi:10.1016/j.procir.2014.08.017
 Vladimir V. Glinskiy et al. / Procedia CIRP 26 (2015) 30 34
of area of stability of any ecosystem that makes it possible to
determine the admissible disturbance value ecosystem load,
to define thresholds of stability of concrete ecological systems
[1, 2, 3]. A number of methods and criteria of assessment of
ecological safety were formed within these concepts [see in
detail 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9]. In particular, the following may be
noted: offered in [9] diversity index of ecosystems which is
based on the use of remote methods for biodiversity definition
by species composition; the integrated indicator "ecological
safety of the region" calculated for Volga federal district. The
ideology of the factorial analysis forms the basis of creation of
this indicator. This methodology assumes that ecological
safety of the region can be conditionally subdivided into two
internal blocks: human impact on environment and medical-
demographic characteristics of the region. Each block is
presented by a set of the most informative selected indicators,
used for carrying out further calculations; rating of subjects of
Volga federal district is carried out on the results of
calculations [7]; the methodology of ranging of objects by the
level of ecological safety.
Criteria of ecological safety form the basis of this
methodology: criterion of assessment of level of stability of
environment, criterion of assessment of level of autoregulation
of environment, criterion of assessment of level of influence
of projected economic entity on population health, criterion of
assessment of level of environmental friendliness of technical
and technological solutions of economic entity, criterion of
assessment of a level of quality of environment in target area
[6]; classification of methods of ensuring the ecological
safety, offered by T.A. Horuzhaya [3]. Practically all modern
methodologies and algorithms have one thing in common -
their individual character: the solution of a private task, use of
expert estimates, labor input of obtaining necessary
information, assessment of one component of ecological
safety environment. Therefore, results of such research are,
as a rule, incomparable, difficult to check, it is almost
impossible to repeat them on other entity.
The system of indicators
Official data of the Federal State Statistics Service (FSSS)
is used as data base in the research. Formation of system of
indicators of municipalities across the Novosibirsk region is
realized by the qualitative analysis taking into account
specifics of the observed object. A number of parameters
meeting the requirements of availability, measurability,
compliance, sufficiency, complexity, reliability and
comparability [see in detail 10] was selected. Indicators are
aggregated in three blocks.
Block 1. Social and economic development: number of
doctors of all specialties (excluding dentists) in healthcare
institutions, person; power of outpatient and polyclinic
establishments, visits per shift; number of preschool
educational institutions for the end of fiscal year, units;
number of establishments of cultural and leisure type, units;
number of sports constructions - total, units; number of
children's and youth sports schools, units; investments into
fixed capital at the expense of means of the municipal budget,
thousand rubles; investments into the fixed capital, carried out
31
by the organizations which are situated in the territory of
municipality (excluding small business), thousand rubles;
number of unprofitable organizations, units; specific weight of
profitable organizations, percent; receivables, thousand rubles;
accounts payable, thousand rubles; commissioning of houses
on municipality territories, square meter of total area; number
of issued construction licenses, units; number of municipal
bodies of protection of public order, units; number of
voluntary formations of the population regarding protection of
a public order, units.
Block 2. The ecological: current costs of environmental
protection, thousand rubles; amount of objects with stationary
sources of emissions, units; polluting substances from
stationary sources total, one thousand tons; number of
enterprises for utilization and processing of household and
industrial waste, units; cultivated areas of crops in farms of all
categories, hectare.
Block 3. Human capacity: general coefficient of birth rate,
permille; general mortality rate, permille; number of children
visiting preschool educational organizations, for the end of
fiscal year, people; number of trainees in the general education
organizations (without evening (shift) general education
organizations), people; number of engaged in children's and
youth sports schools, people [11].
The similar system can be constructed in several territorial
sections: by municipalities of all subjects of the Russian
Federation (RF), by territorial subjects of the Russian
Federation, by the federal districts of the Russian Federation,
indicators are given for 2008-2012.
Methodology and tools
The assessment of ecological safety of the region is based
on three spheres of activity of society: ecological conditions,
human capacity and social and economic development of the
region. It makes it possible to calculate the composite index of
Environmental Safety, based on a complex assessment of
three indicators: level of social and economic development,
level of ecological conditions and level of human
development.
Indicators and a composite index calculated in a
multivariate average [12, p. 64-65]. Inconsistency between
measurement units and their various influence on the level of
ecological safety are features of initial amount of data. These
shortcomings can be eliminated in various ways. Various
influence is excluded by substitution of a sign for the opposite
one by those signs which negatively influence an integrated
index.
Indicators standardization (or rationing) procedure is
carried out to avoid different measurement units:
norm
xij (1)
xij
max xij
j
or
s tan d
xij  x j
x
ij
Vj
. (2)
Here xijnorm - normalized value of j -th sign, which is
possessed by i -th object,
32 Vladimir V. Glinskiy et al. / Procedia CIRP 26 (2015) 30 34

Table 1. Indicators of assessment of environmental safety of Novosibirsk

xijs tan d - standardized valued of j -th sign, which is region for 2012.
possessed by i -th object, Num- Municipalities Level of Level Level Com-
x j - mean value of j -th integrated index, ber social of of posite
and ecolo- human index of
V j - standard deviation of j -th sign,
economic gical deve- envi-
i number of object (municipal entity), develop- condi- lop- ronmen-
j number of sign. ment tions ment tal safety
The method of multivariate average is noteworthy as a
1 Bagansky area 0.307 0.383 0.401 0.364
peculiar interpretation of multidimensional analysis and
method of compression of information. Average relation 2 Barabinsky area 0.302 0.390 0.402 0.365
characterizing the element by some group of signs can be 3 Bolotninsky area 0.222 0.421 0.287 0.310
calculated for each element of statistical aggregate. Such 4 Vengerovsky area 0.271 0.473 0.311 0.352
conditional indicator is called multivariate average. 5 Dovolensky area 0.206 0.404 0290 0.300
Calculation of multivariate average makes it possible to
6 Zdvinsky area 0.228 0.421 0.162 0.270
make transition from multidimensional space of signs to one-
dimensional. 7 Iskitimsky area 0.375 0.584 0.594 0.518
k
1 8 Karasuksky area 0.282 0.335 0.425 0.347
Pi x sj tand
k j1
(3)
9 Kargatsky area 0.245 0.706 0.244 0.398
10 Kolyvansky area 0.264 0.488 0.331 0.361
Here x sj tand - standardized or normalized value of j -th 11 Kochenevsky area 0.347 0.524 0.570 0.480
sign, 12 Kochkovsky area 0.191 0.427 0.259 0.292
k quantity of signs, Krasnozersky
13 0.243 0.267 0.323 0.278
i number of municipal entity. area
Kuibyshevsky
14 0.234 0.533 0.291 0.353
Multivariate average acts as an integrated index. Original area
data is normalized by the maximum value in the study. In this 15 Kupinsky area 0.327 0.284 0.337 0.316
case values of multivariate average will be in the range from 0
16 Kyshtovsky area 0.251 0.554 0.186 0.330
to 1.
Maslyaninsky
Original aggregate is divided into groups by each indicator 17 0.238 0.463 0.487 0.396
area
and composite index of Environmental safety of the
18 Moshkowsky area 0.233 0.650 0.467 0.450
municipality. It makes it possible to define a place of the
19 Novosibirsk area 0.650 0.695 0.867 0.737
municipality in space of indicators, to identify type of the
studied territory by the level of ecological safety. 20 Ordynsky area 0.317 0.326 0.411 0.351

The methodology of estimation of level of ecological safety 21 Severny area 0.216 0.581 0.228 0.342
is tested on actual data on municipalities of Novosibirsk 22 Suzunsky area 0.369 0.388 0.441 0.399
region for 2012. Indicators and composite index of 23 Tatarsky area 0.379 0.482 0.392 0.418
Environmental safety are presented in table 1. 24 Toguchinsky area 0.370 0.458 0.584 0.471
25 Ubinsky area 0.199 0.458 0.143 0.267
Classification of municipal entities
26 Ust-Tarksky area 0.307 0.533 0.277 0.372

Breakdown of aggregate of municipalities into uniform 27 Chanovsky area 0.319 0.510 0.348 0.392
types is carried out in three ways: with use of typological 28
Cherepanovsky
0.323 0.313 0.570 0.402
grouping; by method of cluster analysis; on the basis of area

creation of a portfolio matrix. 29 Chistoozerny area 0.279 0.460 0.260 0.333

The typological grouping is executed on the basis of 30 Chulym area 0.291 0.439 0,248 0.326
estimates of the composite index of Environmental stability. 31 city of 0.795 0,400 0.691 0.629
The level of ecological safety lies in interval [0,0 1,0], equal Novosibirsk
32 city of Berdsk 0.249 0.536 0.172 0.319
intervals are taken for breakdown.
33 city of Iskitim 0.224 0.591 0.072 0.296
As a result, three groups of municipalities are obtained: low
34 city of Ob 0.123 0.590 0.140 0.284
level of ecological safety [0; 0.333]; average level [0.333;
0.667]; high level [0.667; 1] (table 2). workers
35 settlement of 0.184 0.601 0.405 0.397
Koltsovo
 Vladimir V. Glinskiy et al. / Procedia CIRP 26 (2015) 30 34 33

Table 2. Typology of municipalities of Novosibirsk region by level of

environmental safety in 2012
Variation Level of Municipalities
interval of environmental
integrated safety (type)
index
0.0000.333 Low Bolotninsky, Dovolensky, Zdvinsky,
Kochkovsky, Krasnozersky, Kupinsky,
Kyshtovky, Ubinsky, Chulym areas,
city of Berdsk, Iskitim and Ob

0.3330.667 Medium Bagansky, Barabinsk, Vengerovsky,

Iskitimsky, Karasuksky, Kargatsky,
Kolyvansky, Kochenevsky,
Kuibyshev, Maslyaninsky,
Moshkowsky, Ordynsky, Severny,
Suzunsky, Tatarsky, Toguchinsky,
Ust-Tarsky, Chanovsky,
Fig. 2. Typology of municipalities of Novosibirsk region in 2012 by level of
Cherepanovsky, Chistoozerny areas
environmental safety
and workers settlement of Koltsovo
and city of Novosibirsk
Research of empirical distributions of municipalities by
0.6671.000 High Novosibirsk area
each indicator made it possible to set out three groups by
ecological conditions and human development (low, medium,
Cluster analysis. Nearest neighbor method is applied, high) (fig. 3 a,b) and two groups by social and economic
distance matrix is constructed on Euclidean metric on three development (low, high) (fig. 3 ).
indicators: level of social and economic development, level of
ecological conditions and level of human development (fig. 1, Variable: Level of environmental status, Distribution: Normal
Chi-Square test = 0,27547, df = 2 (adjusted) , p = 0,87133
table 3) [13]. 8

Tree Diagram for 35 Cases

Single Linkage 7
Euclidean distances
C_1 6
C_2
C_8
C_20
C_22
No. of observations

C_15 5
C_13
C_3
C_5
C_12
C_4 4
C_10
C_29
C_30
C_27
C_14 3
C_26
C_23
C_16
C_32 2
C_21
C_6
C_25
C_33
C_34 1
C_17
C_9
C_18
C_35
C_7 0
C_11 0,20 0,25 0,30 0,35 0,40 0,45 0,50 0,55 0,60 0,65 0,70 0,75
C_24
C_28
C_19 Category (upper limits)
C_31

0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5

) by level of ecological conditions;
Linkage Distance
Variable: Level of human development, Distribution: Normal
Fig. 1. Dendrogram of municipalities of Novosibirsk region for 2012 Chi-Square test = 2,61477, df = 1 (adjusted) , p = 0,10587
14

Portfolio analysis matrix. Three-dimensional matrix (fig. 2)

12
is constructed; indicators of environmental safety are taken as
coordinates of the matrix: level of social and economic 10
development, level of ecological conditions, level of human
No. of observations

development [14, 15]. 8

Table 3. Typology of municipalities (nearest neighbor method) 6

Cluster Type Number of Numbers of

4
number regions municipalities
(municipalities)
2
1 Low 7 1, 2, 8, 13, 15, 20, 22
0
-0,11 0,00 0,11 0,22 0,33 0,44 0,55 0,66 0,77 0,88 0,99
2 Medium 26 37, 9-12, 14, 16-18, 21,
Category (upper limits)
23-30, 32-35
b) by level of human development;
3 High 2 19, 31
34 Vladimir V. Glinskiy et al. / Procedia CIRP 26 (2015) 30 34

Variable: Level of social and economic development, Distribution: Normal

Chi-Square test = 10,05948, df = 1 (adjusted) , p = 0,00152
management - municipal, subjective, district; possibility of
20 carrying out comparisons not only by territories but in
18 dynamics as well emerges; results of research make it possible
16
to develop effective strategies of management of ecological
safety both for a separate territorial entity and for
14
homogeneous groups.
No. of observations

12

10 References
8

6
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inconsistency and unverifiability of results.
The suggested methodology, based on use of blocks of
indicators of the state statistics, makes it possible to obtain
rather adequate estimates for main territorial levels of