THE ZEN OF MODELING

What’s the first thing you think of when you hear the word model? The plastic model airplanes
you used to build? A fashion model? The model of the car you drive? The person who is your
role model? But what do any of those things have to do with data analysis? Read on; you’re
about to find that statistical analyses begin and end with models.

By Any Other Name

What do a Ford Focus, a plastic airplane, and Tyra Banks have in common? They are all called
models. They are all representations of something, usually an ideal or a standard.
Models can be true representations, approximate (or at least as good as practicable), or
simplified, even cartoonish compared to what they represent. They can be about the same size,
bigger, or most typically, smaller, whatever makes them easiest to handle. They usually represent
physical objects but can also represent a variety of phenomena, including conditions such as
weather patterns, behaviors such as customer satisfaction, and processes such as widget
manufacturing. The models themselves do not have to be physical objects either. They can be
written, drawn, or consist of mathematical equations or computer programming. In fact, using
equations and computer code can be much more flexible and less expensive than building a
physical model.
Customarily, models are used either to:
 Display what they represent (e.g., model
airplanes) or are associated with (e.g., fashions)
 Substitute for incomplete real world data,
such as using the Normal distribution as a
surrogate for a sample distribution.
 Manipulate their components to learn
more about the things they represent (e.g.,
This is supposed to be a model of ME! scientific models for planetary motion).
Whether you know it or not, you deal with models
every day. Your weather forecast comes from a meteorological model, maybe several.
Mannequins are used to display how fashions may look on you. Blueprints are drawn models of
objects or structures to be built. Examples are plentiful.
 Examples of Physical Models
Relative Size of Model
Larger than Actual Same as Actual Smaller than Actual
Oversized exhibition
Cadavers used in
True models for industrial Ant Farms
medical schools
trade shows
Representation
Accuracy of

Anatomical models Army Corps of

Approximate used in colleges and NASA flight simulators Engineers models of
medical schools waterways
ResusiAnnie (dummies)
Molecular models used
Simplified used for CPR Architectural models
in education
instruction

Humans, in particular, are modeled all the time because of our complexity. Children play with
dolls as models of playmates. Mannequins are simplified models of fashion models, who in turn,
are models of people who might wear a fashion designer’s wares. Posing models provide
reference points for artists. Crash test dummies reveal how the human body might react in an
automobile accident. Medical researchers use laboratory animals in place of humans for basic
research. Medical schools use donated cadavers as models, very good ones as it turns out, of the
human anatomy. So, there should be nothing unfamiliar or intimidating about models.
Whether it is a physical scale-model of a hydroelectric dam or a mathematical model of weather
patterns, a model is nothing more than a tool used to stimulate the imagination by simulating an
object or phenomenon. The model airplane takes its young pilot looping through the blue skies of a
summer day. Globes teach geography and orreries teach planetary motion. The mannequin shows
the bride-to-be how beautiful she’ll look in the gown at her wedding. The concept car unveiled
today gives consumers an idea of what they may be driving in a few years. The National Hurricane
Center uses over a dozen mathematical models to forecast the intensities and paths of tropical
storms and to help understand the complex dynamics of hurricanes.
It should come as no surprise, then, that scientists, engineers, and mathematicians use models,
especially virtual models, all the time. It may be surprising, though, that virtual models are also
used extensively in business, economics, politics, and many other fields. Nevertheless, there is a
mystique associated with modeling, especially the mathematical variety. Some believe that models
are infallible and unchanging. Some believe that models are impossibly complex and necessarily
unfathomable. Some believe that models are sophisticated delusions for obfuscating real data. In
reality, none of these opinions is correct, at least entirely.

A Medley of Numbers
Mathematical models can be either theoretical (i.e., derived mathematically from scientific
principles) or empirical (i.e., based on experimental observations). For example, celestial
movements and radioactive decay are phenomena that can be evaluated using theory-based
models. To calibrate a theoretical model, the form of the model (i.e., the equation) is fixed and the
inputs are adjusted so that the calculated results adequately represent actual observations.
Empirical models differ from theoretical models in that the model is not necessarily fixed for all
instances of its use. Rather, empirical models are developed for specific situations from measured
data. Model formulation and calibration are simultaneous. However, the selection of the form of
the equation and the inputs used in an empirical model are usually based on related theories.
Models developed using statistical techniques are examples of empirical models.
Empirical models can also be deterministic, stochastic, or sometimes a hybrid of the two.
Deterministic empirical models presume that a specific mathematical relationship exists between
two or more measurable phenomena (as do theoretical models) that will allow the phenomena to be
modeled without uncertainty under a given set of conditions (i.e., the model's inputs and
assumptions). Biological growth models are examples of deterministic empirical models.
Both theoretical models and deterministic empirical models provide solutions that presume that
there is no uncertainty. These solutions are termed “exact” (which does not necessarily imply
“correct”). Conversely, stochastic empirical models presume that changes in a phenomenon have a
random component. The random component allows stochastic empirical models to provide
solutions that incorporate uncertainty into the analysis.
Statistical models are examples of stochastic empirical models in which the model equation is
generated by quantifying and minimizing errors (i.e., uncertainty). Statistical models place great
emphasis on examining and quantifying uncertainty, whereas theoretical models generally do not.
OK, that’s way more than you need to know. Let me simplify. Mathematical models are based on
theories or observations or both. They can produce a single (exact) answer for a set of inputs by
assuming there is no variability or a range of (inexact) answers by incorporating the variability into
the model.
For example, distribution models are equations that produce exact solutions for the equation curve.
The model describes what your data frequency would look like if your sampling were a perfect
representation of the population. So if your data follow a particular distribution model, you can use
the model instead of your data to estimate the probability of a data value occurring. This is the
basis of parametric statistics; you evaluate your data as if they came from a population described
by the model. (In contrast, nonparametric statistics use your data instead of an exact model to
estimate the probability of a data value occurring.) It’s like building a sand castle. A distribution
model is like a bucket you can fill with sand (data) to create the castle (the result) with great
efficiency. Without the model serving as a substitute, it takes more effort (data) to completely
shape the castle.
Statistical analyses involving descriptive statistics and testing rely on exact mathematical models
like the Normal distribution to represent data frequencies and error rates. Just as importantly,
though, statistical techniques are used to build models from data. Such statistical models include an
error term to incorporate the effects of variation, and thus, are inexact because they produce a
solution that is a range of possible values. Statistical analyses involving detecting differences,
prediction, or exploration involve using statistics to estimate the mathematical coefficients, the
parameters, of a model.
So, models and statistics are closely intertwined. Statistical analyses begin and end with models.
Models serve as both inputs and outputs of statistical analyses. You can’t do without them, so you
might as well understand what they are.
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