Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical

Engineers, Part E: Journal of Process

Mechanical Engineering
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Plant machinery working life prediction method utilizing reliability and condition-monitoring data
K B Goode, J Moore and B J Roylance
Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part E: Journal of Process Mechanical Engineering 2000 214:
109
DOI: 10.1243/0954408001530146

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 109

Plant machinery working life prediction method

utilizing reliability and condition-monitoring data
K B Goode1, J Moore1 and B J Roylance2*
1
British Steel Strip Products, Port Talbot, Wales, UK
2
Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Wales Swansea, UK

Abstract: A recently developed condition-based maintenance model is described which utilizes

reliability data combined with condition-monitoring measurements to predict the remaining useful life
of critical components in a hot strip steel mill. The results obtained from case studies are presented
which indicate how the model can be used as part of a condition-based maintenance strategy.

Keywords: condition-based maintenance model, condition monitoring, hot strip mill, steelworks,
failure prediction, life prediction, reliability, statistical process control

1 INTRODUCTION described in reference [2]. This paper brings together

In a highly competitive industry, steelworks management
has to focus continually on achieving increased product
performance, quality and efficiency in order to maintain a
fair share of the available market and to improve its
customer base. In an integrated steelworks complex, the
hot strip mill (HSM) is constantly a crucial area of
operation in which unscheduled failure or breakdown of
machinery can critically affect production downtime and
associated risk of a reduction in finished goods quality.
For several years, steel companies in the UK have
practised condition-based maintenance in strategically
vital areas such as the HSM. The methods of monitoring
employed cover a wide spectrum of activity which
includes vibration analysis, oil and wear debris analysis,
and performance monitoring using numerous techniques
to measure parameters such as electric motor current and
temperature. The present utilization of these methods
enables plant maintenance personnel to detect and also,
very often, to diagnose pending failure of equipment.
What they are unable to do with a higher degree of
certainty is to predict the remaining useful life of failing
components.
The predictive model was initially developed using
artifically generated failures and has been described in
reference [1], with early trials using real failure data
The MS was received on 12 May 1999 and was accepted after revision
for publication on 30 March 2000.
*Corresponding author: Department of Mechanical Engineering,
University of Wales Swansea, Singleton Park, Swansea SA2 8PP, UK.
E00899 IMechE 2000
these two pieces of work to provide a more detailed
account of the methods used to establish the prediction
model and how it functions in a condition-based
maintenance environment involving plant machinery.
The model has been developed on the basis that the
failure pattern can be divided into two distinct phases,
namely stable and unstable phases, which can be
distinguished from each other by using statistical process
control methods. Depending on the way in which the
machinery progresses to failure, one of two methods is
employed to predict the remaining machine life. The first
relies entirely on a reliability model, while the second
method uses a novel combination of reliability and
condition monitoring measurements to narrow down the
time to a failure window. After describing the
methodology used to generate the predictive model, the
results of a case study will be presented to show how the
model can be utilized as part of a condition-based
maintenance strategy within the HSM.
2 DEVELOPMENT OF A PREDICTION MODEL
THEORY
2.1 Some basic aspects
For the purpose of identifying whether a potential failure
problem exists in the HSM, normal alarm limits are
utilized on which the levels are periodically adjusted
according to factors such as operational experience,
machine supplier recommendations, previous failure
data, or national and international standards. The
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110 K B GOODE, J MOORE AND B J ROYLANCE
problems imposed by reliance on these methods is that, if
the alarm limits are set too high, the machine may fail
without sufficient advanced warning. If the limits are set
too low, the machine will generate false alarms that can
obscure a true warning until it is too late. Experienced
machine operators and maintenance personnel learn,
from experience, how to distinguish between false and
true alarms. However, such people are not always present
and, hence, a need exists to try to mimic such
experiences. If this is attempted through the development
of a failure prediction model, a number of difficulties are
encountered.
Some of these difficulties may be addressed by
employing a statistical process control (SPC) approach.
SPC theory assumes that operating measurements
obtained from a correctly functioning machine will
normally vary around an average value [3]. If the
machine malfunctions however, this natural measure-
ment pattern may change, indicating the source of the
problem. By setting suitable alarm limits, SPC can be
utilized to distinguish such measurements in terms of
stable or unstable regions [4]. However, the setting of
such limits is both machine and process dependent and
needs to be conducted for each individual situation. It is
therefore, a time-consuming and failure data-intensive
activity which may be alleviated to some extent by
comparing measurements from a group of otherwise
similar machines, thereby providing a larger population
of failures from which to extract data and establish
realistic alarm limits.
In predicting the remaining useful life of a machine,
previously developed models were based on the ex-
tensive use of reliability data coupled to a number of
simplifying assumptions [57]. Although the prediction
obtained from such models is seldom precise enough for
predicting the remaining life of individual machinery,
they have been found to be useful for optimizing
maintenance strategies.
A commonly encountered reliability model applied to
repairable systems is the renewal process. It assumes that,
when a machine fails, it is repaired perfectly, i.e. as good
as new, and that times between failure are independent
and identically distributed. When these assumptions hold
true, the process is said to be stationary. A special case of
the renewal process is when the times between failures
are independently and exponentially distributed with a
constant failure rate. This is known as the homogenous
Poisson process. It is known that the probability of some
arbitrary number of failures exhibits a Poisson distribu-
tion. From such reliability-based models, hazard rate
functions can be constructed and used to optimize
scheduled maintenance periods. However, in practice,
their construction is generally a function of many
variables, including design, operating conditions, envir-
onment and quality of repairs [8].
By conducting a Weibull analysis on the failure data,
an insight into the dominant failure regime can often be
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gained [9]. Whether this regime is identified as infant
mortality, random failure or wear-out, corrective main-
tenance actions can be implemented to improve machine
reliability further.
Proportional hazard modelling (PHM), developed by
Cox [10], combines a baseline hazard rate, stated as a
function of time, and a hazard function based on the
machine condition variables. The PHM technique was
applied, by Jardine [11, 12], to aircraft and marine
engine failures in which the metal concentration
measurements of the engine oil were used as the
condition variables. Jardine was able to show that the
PHM approach was superior to the equivalent time-
dependent hazard rate modelling and, through estimating
failure rates, more effective maintenance decisions could
be made.
In practice, a regular inspection strategy is often
employed to monitor critical machinery. Christer and
Waller [13, 14] developed a technique called delay time
analysis for modelling the consequences of such a policy.
The delay time is defined as the time period from the
point at which a defect is noticeable to the point at which
the defect causes a failure. A repair is therefore possible
at any time within this period. Christer and Waller were
able to obtain a subjective estimate, through the use of
questionnaires, of the probability density function f(h) of
the delay time. Once f(h) is established, it is possible to
develop subsequent models describing the relationships
between time and other relevant variables such as
expected downtime and operating costs.
Using historical reliability data to predict the future
performance of similar machines requires an assumption
that the historical and current performance are highly
correlated. In reality, this is rarely the case and, instead,
individual assessments of a machines health are more
effective in identifying when a problem exists. This can
be achieved through the use of strategic machinery
health-monitoring techniques and the intelligent use of
predetermined alarm limits. Fitch [15] highlighted four
methodologies in setting such alarm limits; goal based,
ageing, rate of change and statistical limits.
Moubray [16] examined condition monitoring failure
patterns and highlights the use of the PF interval. A PF
interval is the time taken for a machine to reach
functional failure F from the point at which condition
monitoring could have identified a potential problem with
the machine P. Provided that the condition-monitoring
interval is no greater than the PF interval, a functional
failure should never occur without warning. In practice,
however, the PF interval is difficult to quantify and for
critical machinery, with a short PF interval, continuous
monitoring may be justified. From the above review of
some relevant developments, it is evident that two models
are required; one to describe when the component
deteriorates, and the other to relate the degree of
deterioration to the condition of the equipment by the
use of monitoring procedures.
E00899 IMechE 2000
 PLANT MACHINERY WORKING LIFE PREDICTION METHOD
Fig. 1 Typical failures
2.2 Prediction model theory
A theoretical solution is presented in the following
section to three problems commonly encountered while
practising condition monitoring: setting appropriate
limits, identifying when next to monitor the machinery,
and predicting when to change or repair the machine after
a problem has been identified. The theory is based on the
assumption that the life of a machine can be divided into
two distinct regions, namely a stable zone and failure
zone, which can be distinguished between the observed
condition-monitored measurements.
Figure 1 shows typical vibration analysis data as a
function of time, taken from a hot strip mill condition-
monitoring programme for a hydraulic pump system
which subsequently failed. Failure in this context
represents a change in the machines state such that it
can no longer be relied upon to perform the function for
which it was originally intended.
A general failure condition is self-evident, which may
be represented schematically as shown in Fig. 2. In the
stable zone, the machinery is functioning correctly and
condition-monitoring measurements, assuming that they
reflect the true health of the machine, are varying
randomly about an average value. The variance is
probably due to process changes between successive
measurements and/or condition measurement error.
When the condition measurements start to deviate
significantly from these values, it soon becomes apparent
Fig. 2 General failure pattern
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111
that a problem has occurred, and it can be said that the
machine has entered the failure zone. The function of the
alarm limits is to identify when this deviation becomes
significant and, hence, when the failure zone is entered.
Observations made by the present authors on numerous
sets of failure data indicate that, while in the failure zone
it is reasonable to assume that the machines health
degrades as an exponential function. It should be noted,
however, that not all machines exhibit this characteristic
but, in the first instance, the model will be developed on
the basis of this assumption.
2.2.1 Setting alarm limits
The first part of the model is concerned with ensuring the
earliest identification of a problem through setting
appropriate alarm limits. As stated previously, current
condition-monitoring programmes rely mainly on alarm
limits being pre-set using manufacturers recommenda-
tions, British Standards, e.g. BS 7854 [17], and operators
personal experience. Unfortunately, based on observa-
tions arising from the current research programme, it is
evident that these alarm limits are often set either too high
or too low. This results in either too frequent alarm
reports, which ultimately are ignored due to compla-
cency, or an even worse situation whereby a machine
fails without any warning, because the alarm limit was
not exceeded. Clearly, there is a balance between the
number of false alarms and the earliest detection of a
problem which is also influenced by the amount of time
required to maintain the malfunctioning machine in
relation to the rate of machine deterioration.
Based on these observations, it became clear that the
problem of setting appropriate alarm limits may be better
treated through the use of SPC. Provided that sufficient
stable zone data are available, and that the measurements
may be assumed to follow a normal distribution, the
average and standard deviation of the stable zone
condition measurements can be calculated.
In defining alarm limits, three standard deviations
either side of the average stable zone value, SPC theory
states that 99.73 per cent of subsequent measurements
Proc Instn Mech Engrs Vol 214 Part E
112 K B GOODE, J MOORE AND B J ROYLANCE

should fall within this band. If the condition measure-
ments lie outside these limits, then the measurement has
become unstable and it may be assumed that the
machine condition has entered the failure zone.
describing the time from the point of a problem being
detected to failure.
If the IP and PF time intervals are shown to be
constants, then the total time to failure (TTF) of the
machine, at any time t, is given by

2.2.2 Predicting the time to failure TTF IP PF t 1

In order to develop any form of prediction model, a However, it is generally recognized that estimating the IP
machine life model must be described. It is assumed that and PF intervals is difficult since they are often not time
a machine begins its life at the installation point I and is dependent and rarely accurately approximated by a
in a good functional state. Given that there is sufficient constant value. Instead, it is more realistic to represent
time, during which the machines condition is relatively these intervals using a suitable distribution. The follow-
constant, the machine eventually experiences a problem ing Weibull distribution offers the most benefits due to its
and begins to deteriorate until functional failure point F is flexibility in describing many types of distribution, and
reached, the point at which the machine can be said to its mathematical simplicity:
fulfil no longer its specified requirements.
If it is assumed that the condition-monitoring measure- "  b #
ments reflect the machines health, then, when operating Int
Ft 1 exp 2
correctly, it is equal to an average measurement, defined Z
as the lower limit (LL). A functional failure is defined by
the condition measurements reaching a specific value, the where
upper limit (UL), above which the machine no longer
operates. Once the alarm limit (AL), the point at which F(t) cumulative probability
the condition-monitoring measurements identify a prob- t elapsed time since machine installation
lem, has been defined, the potential failure point P can b shape parameter
also be introduced to the model, as illustrated in Fig. 3. g location parameter
This description of machine deterioration is similar to Z characteristic life parameter
that used by Moubray [16]. However, the plots have been Int interval time (either IP or PF)
developed to resemble more closely the overall vibration
monitoring deterioration profiles commonly found in the b, g and Z are constants derived from an analysis of the
steel industry. machines historical failures.
The potential failure point is used to define the Rearranging equation (2) with respect to the interval
transition from the stable to the failure zone. The stable time, the following expression is obtained:
zone time is defined as IP, the time from machine
installation to the potential failure point. This contains
largely condition-monitoring measurements which are Int Zf ln1 Ftg1=b 3
randomly varying around the lower limit. When the
condition measurements exceed the alarm limit, it is By using this expression to define the time intervals IP
assumed that the machine has entered the failure zone and PF, TTF now becomes
and will deteriorate, at an exponential rate, towards a
functional failure after time PF. For comparison, the PF TTF IP ZIP f ln1 Ftg1=bIP PF
notation is similar to that used by Moubray [16] in
ZPF f ln1 Ftg1=bPF 4

The solution to equation (4) can be obtained using a

Monte Carlo approach, with TTF being predicted as a
cumulative probability distribution, similar to Fig. 4.
However, this formula does not take into account the
survival of the machine to the current time and is, hence,
only strictly true for t 0 and t IP. Equation (5)
represents the condition when t 0:

TTF IP ZIP f ln1 Ftg1=bIP PF

Fig. 3 Machine life model ZPF f ln1 Ftg1=bPF 5

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 PLANT MACHINERY WORKING LIFE PREDICTION METHOD 113

Fig. 4 Cumulative probability of reaching functional failure

and, if t IP, the following equation is derived:
TTF
PF ZPF f ln1 Ftg1=bPF 6 which predicted the ultimate functional failure from the
The condition-monitoring measurements may be thought
of as a switch, which moves the TTF prediction from
the stable to the failure zone calculations. It is argued that
this switch approach would give a better indication of the
remaining life of the machine than relying solely on a
reliability analysis of functional failure times.
However, it is possible to obtain an even better
prediction by using more of the available data. In the
stable zone the machine age has yet to be incorporated.
Similarly, the condition-monitored measurements have
so far only been utilized to trigger a switch. The
development of a failure zone model could result in a
condition-based prediction model which employs the
condition measurement data more efficiently. In the next
two sections the means whereby these additional data can
be incorporated to achieve a better prediction of the
failure time is described.
2.2.3 Failure prediction in the stable zone
In the stable zone, condition-monitoring measurements
provide little information except to confirm that the
machines health is fine. Therefore, the only data on
which to base a prediction of the time to failure, are its
historical reliability. Equation (5) gave one solution,
installation point I. However, it did not account for the
machine surviving to the current time. In this section,
another approach will be developed which predicts the
likelihood of failure over a period of time, given any time
in the stable zone.
While in the stable zone the chance of a functional
failure, in a specified time period (n 1) dt n dt, is
simply a function of the probability to reach the potential
failure point, P(reaching potential point in time Y) and the
probability of reaching the functional failure point in the
remaining time, P (reaching functional failure in time Z),
as illustrated in Fig. 5. Therefore to calculate the
probability of failure in the increment, all individual
failure combination probabilities are summed, as follows:
X
P(functional failure) Ppotential failure in Y
Pfunctional failure in Z
7
In theory, there are an infinite number of possible
failure combinations and hence, to reduce this number, it

Fig. 5 Probability of functional failure in increment

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114 K B GOODE, J MOORE AND B J ROYLANCE

Fig. 6 Illustration of the multiple failure combinations

is assumed that it takes a small amount of time, dt, to time remaining from the potential failure point, the
move from the stable to failure zone. The failure cumulative density function for the PF Weibull distribu-
combination probabilities for the first four time incre- tion is used:
ments are shown in Fig. 6.
It is noticed that, for each time increment, another
failure combination is possible and, due to the assump- Pfunctional failure in Z Fz dt Fz 1 dt
tion that it takes one increment to move from a stable to 10
failure zone, there is no chance of a failure in the first
increment. Hence, to calculate the probability of func-
tional failure in the interval, the probability of functional Hence, the probability of an overall functional failure
failure during each increment is calculated and summed between 0 and 1 dt is zero.
as follows: The probability of functional failure between 1 dt and 2
dt is
P(functional failure in interval)
n interval=dt
X FIP t dt FIP t
P(functional failure in increment) FPF dt
1 FIP t
n2
8
The probability of functional failure between 2 dt and 3 dt
To find the probability of reaching a potential failure is
point, the Weibull distribution hazard rate of the IP
interval is used. The hazard rate h(t) is defined as the
probability of failure over the next time increment dt, FIP t dt FIP t
FPF 2 dt FPF dt
assuming that no failure has occurred up to current time t. 1 FIP t
This is expressed as
FIP t 2 dt FIP t dt
FIP t dt FIP t FPF dt
hIP t 9 1 FIP t
1 FIP t

To calculate the probability of functional failure in the The probability of functional failure between 3 dt and 4 dt
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 PLANT MACHINERY WORKING LIFE PREDICTION METHOD 115

is and the probability of failure in the nth interval dt is

FIP t dt FIP t FPF t n dt FPF t n 1 dt

FPF 3 dt FPF 2 dt
1 FIP t 1 FPF t
FIP t 2 dt FIP t dt
FPF 2 dt FPF dt Again, these probabilities can be summed and plotted
1 FIP t against time to indicate the probability of functional
FIP t 3 dt FIP t 2 dt failure in a manner similar to the stable zone prediction.
FPF dt Since the use of condition monitoring has eliminated the
1 FIP t
use of the IP interval, it is argued that, while in the failure
zone, a more accurate prediction of the failure time will
The probability of functional failure between (n 1) dt
be achieved. However, there are two drawbacks to using
and n dt is
this approach. First, an accurate estimate of the potential
FIP t dt FIP t failure point is needed and, second, the condition-
fFPF n 1 dt FPF n 2 dtg monitoring measurements are still only being used to
1 FIP t trigger an alarm.
An improved model may possibly be achieved by
FIP t 2 dt FIP t dt
fFPF n 2 dt making further use of the condition-monitoring informa-
1 FIP t tion to track the progression of the problem until
FPF n 3 dtg functional failure occurs. Such a condition-based predic-
tion model eliminates the need to acquire an accurate
FIP t 3 dt FIP t 2 dt estimate of the potential failure point and incorporates
fFPF n 3 dt
1 FIP t condition-monitoring measurement data into the func-
tional failure prediction. In order to achieve these
FPF n 4 dtg
improvements, a model of the failure zone pattern must



first be developed. Figure 7 shows an idealized failure
zone pattern.
until there are n 1 expressions. The failure begins at the lower limit LL, the average
Once the probability of functional failure for each condition measurement value within the stable zone. The
individual increment has been calculated, they are condition-monitored measurement X(t) increases until it
cumulatively plotted against time to indicate the prob- is detected passing through the alarm limit AL, where the
ability of failure in any time interval, using equation (8). potential failure point is identified. Eventually the
Hence, by using such plots it is possible to predict the condition becomes sufficiently serious that the upper
likelihood of a functional failure, given any time interval limit UL is reached and a functional failure occurs. It is
over which the machine is required to run. For each new assumed that the failure pattern is approximated by an
condition measurement indicating that the machine is exponential curve and hence, a model of the failure zone
operating correctly, a new plot must be produced. is defined as
However, if the condition-monitoring measurements
indicate a problem, i.e. the potential failure point has X t LL AL LL
been reached, a new approach must be used which makes  
lnUL LL=AL LL
use of the condition-monitoring information.  exp t
PF
2.2.4 Failure prediction in the failure zone 11

When the condition-monitoring measurements have

exceeded the alarm limit, it is assumed that a problem
exists with the machine, the failure zone has been entered
and a functional failure is approaching. If the approxi-
mate potential failure point is known, an analysis of the
reliability data may be undertaken which uses the hazard
rate to predict the time to functional failure. Given any
time t from the potential failure point, the probability of
failure in the next interval dt is

FPF t dt FPF t
1 FPF t Fig. 7 Failure zone model
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116 K B GOODE, J MOORE AND B J ROYLANCE

Values of LL and AL may be obtained from statistical

modelling of the stable zone. The estimate of UL, the
point of functional failure can be set using a number of
parameters, including British Standards, manufacturers
recommendations or the operators past experience. The
value of the PF interval must also be estimated. This is
again best achieved using the Weibull distribution
function. If equation (11) is rearranged, an expression
for t with respect to the measured condition X(t) is
obtained as
 
lnfX t LL=AL LLg
t PF 12
lnUL LL=AL LL
Fig. 8 Highlow plot generation
This t is an estimate of the elapsed time since the
potential failure point. Hence, to predict the remaining
time to functional failure, estimates of t and PF are 2.2.6 Monitoring interval times
substituted into
It was stated in the previous section that current
TTF PF t 13 condition-monitoring interval times are based largely
on fixed times, developed through the use of British
to give Standards, equipment manufacturers recommendations
and operator experience. The major benefit of using such
  a fixed time interval is the ease of maintenance
TTF PF ZPF f ln1 Ftg1=bPF implementation. However, this compromises the effi-
  ciency of the data collection especially when a clear time-
lnfX t LL=AL LLg
 1 dependent failure pattern exists.
lnUL LL=AL LL In the previous sections, various models were devel-
14 oped which predict the time to functional failure through
the use of cumulative distribution functions. Provided
The form of the predicted time to functional failure will that an acceptable risk of failure between successive
be a distribution, in this case a probability density condition measurements can be established, the same
function, which can be easily converted into a cumulative plots may also be employed to predict the condition
density function. It should be noted that, by using this monitoring interval times, as shown in Fig. 9. Clearly, the
method to predict the functional failure, an accurate acceptable risk of functional failure will vary for
identification of the potential failure point is not individual machines; critical machines having a smaller
necessary. acceptable risk than non-critical machines.
To calculate the condition-monitoring interval time
while in the stable zone, the risk must be compared with
2.2.5 Prediction model output and interpretation the previously calculated cumulative incremental prob-
So far, the model formulates a time to failure prediction
in the form of a cumulative density function. Although
this function provides a complete description of the
probability of failure against time, it is a time-consuming
activity and successive function curves look cumbersome
and could easily be misinterpreted by an inexperienced
person. Hence, a method is needed to convert the model
output into a simpler form which still conveys the
necessary information. The use of a highlow chart is
seen as a tool to achieve this, as shown in Fig. 8.
Using the highlow plots, a quick and simple
interpretation of the prediction can be gained; within
the broad dark time band there exists an 80 per cent
chance of failure and the average TTF is located by the
peak. The 10, 50 and 90 per cent limits are subjective and
could be altered depending on the accuracy required in Fig. 9 Graphic calculation of the condition-monitoring (Con.
identifying the potential risk of failure. Mon.) interval
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 PLANT MACHINERY WORKING LIFE PREDICTION METHOD
ability of functional failure. However, in the failure zone,
equation (14) is used with F(t) being equal to the
acceptable risk:
 
Interval
PF ZPF ln1 Risk1=bPF
 
lnfX t LL=(AL LL)g
 1
ln(UL LL)=(AL LL)
15
Alternatively, given a pre-set condition monitoring
interval, equation (15) can be rearranged to indicate the
probability of functional failure before the next monitor-
ing time is reached. This could provide useful informa-
tion in making a decision either to maintain a machine
immediately, or to allow it to run until the next planned
maintenance period.
3 PREDICTION MODEL IMPLEMENTATION
The implementation of the maintenance model is ideally
represented schematically in Fig. 10. Condition-monitor-
ing measurements are examined to verify whether or not
they are within the alarm limits. If they are within the
limits, the machine is considered to be stable and the TTF
is predicted using the equations derived in Section 2.2.3.
If, however, the measurements exceed the alarm limits,
the machine has entered the failure zone and a functional
failure is imminent. In this scenario the TTF is predicted
using the equations derived in Section 2.2.4. If these
predictions indicate it to be necessary, the machine will
be maintained. However, if no maintenance is required,
then the next monitoring time will be calculated, the point
Fig. 10 Schematic diagram of prediction model implementation
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117
of the next condition-monitoring measurement will be
obtained and a further assessment of the machines health
is conducted.
4 PREDICTION MODEL TRIALS
To test and validate the maintenance model the following
studies were undertaken:
(a) a simulated assessment of the model where the data
inputs are always known;
(b) specific case studies of real machines used within
British Steel, to examine the performance of the
model with historical failures.
4.1 Simulated data trial
To illustrate the way in which the model is best designed
to function, a computer program was written to simulate
typical machine failure patterns of the type observed to
occur frequently in the hot strip mill. The simulated
machine failure pattern, shown in Fig. 11, is one such
instance.
The prediction model results for each measurement
point are given in Fig. 12. In the stable zone a wide
prediction distribution is observed, reflecting the models
dependence on reliability data. When the condition
measurements exceed the alarm limits and the failure
zone is entered, the prediction model is able to identify a
potential problem. This triggers the use of the combined
condition-monitoring and reliability failure zone model,
resulting in the subsequent failure forecasts becoming
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Fig. 11 Simulated condition-monitoring measurements
Fig. 12 Artificial data prediction monitoring results
more focused and eventually identifying the failure time
as being at 89 days with a very high degree of certainty.
From examining the predicted probability of func-
tional failure during the monitoring intervals, shown in
Fig. 13, it is clear that, had the machine continued
Fig. 13 Probability of failure between monitoring intervals
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operation beyond the last measurement, a significant
chance of failure during the monitoring interval existed
(about 82 per cent). Such information would be very
useful within a maintenance strategy for deciding when
to replace a machine. This is especially relevant when
restricted windows of maintenance exist.
4.2 Case studies
A number of hydraulic pumps located on the hot strip
mill, and subjected to regular condition monitoring using
vibration analysis, were selected for a case study. The
present condition-monitoring methods and strategies
used on the mill are generally very effective for
identifying pumps which require attention before cata-
strophic failure occurs. However, no method currently
exists for predicting the remaining useful life of the
pumps while they are still in operation. It is possible,
therefore, that the pumps are not achieving their optimum
operational life.
The machine group selected for the initial assessment
comprises three double-vane pumps, each delivering 320
l/min of hydraulic fluid at 160 bar pressure. The pumps
are each driven by a 120 kW electric motor at
1485 r/min. The system supplies the hydraulic require-
ments to critical machinery, including the reversing
rougher and vertical and horizontal scale breakers. An
overall condition measurement greater than 20 mm/s is
used by the condition-monitoring department as the
criterion for determining that a pump has functionally
failed.
SPC analysis of the stable zone condition measure-
ments resulted in an average measurement value of
6.5 mm/s and an alarm level of 9.5 mm/s. Subsequent
Weibull analysis, on the individual stable and failure
zone times, resulted in the zone parameters given in
Table 1.
Two pump replacement cases are discussed here to
highlight the capability and also, some of the difficulties,
associated with the prediction model when dealing with
real condition-monitoring information. During operation
of pump 2, an adjustment was made after a high
condition-monitoring measurement which had the effect
of reducing the subsequent measurements. In pump 3, an
abnormally high condition measurement was recorded
which fell above the functional failure criteria limit.
Table 1 Stable and failure zone
parameters
Parameter Stable zone Failure zone
b 2.91 1.03
Z 526 days 222 days
g 0 days 0 days
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Fig. 14 Pump 2 condition-monitoring measurements

Subsequent measurements were far lower but no
maintenance action was reported.
4.2.1 Hydraulic system 3, pump 2
In studying the condition-monitoring measurements of
pump 2, shown in Fig. 14, it is observed that a
maintenance action, conducted when the machine was
480 days old, improved the health of the pump and
thereby prolonged its life. Clearly, this type of opera-
tional maintenance has not been incorporated into the
prediction model. To do this would be very complex and
require substantial quantities of maintenance data.
However, even with these restrictions, the model is still
able to adapt and perform reasonably well in predicting
the estimated pump demise at 532 days. Examining the
results presented in Fig. 15, the familiar broad stable zone
predictions are clearly distinguishable from the more
focused failure zone predictions. The very narrow
prediction at 430 days is due to the high recorded
measurement.
It could be argued that pump 2 was replaced too early
and could have continued operation for a little while
longer, possibly with additional condition measurements
to track the impending failure. Figure 16 shows that the
last condition measurement resulted in a predicted chance
of functional failure during the next monitoring interval,
14 days, as 12 per cent. An 88 per cent chance of survival
to the next monitoring time is arguably a worthwhile risk.
However, since these pumps are critical to the HSM

Fig. 15 Pump 2 prediction model results

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120 K B GOODE, J MOORE AND B J ROYLANCE

Fig. 16 Pump 2 chance of functional failure between monitoring intervals

operation, a 12 per cent chance of operational disruption
is undesirable. It may also be the case that maintenance
scheduling played an important role in deciding when
pump 2 was changed. Clearly, the prediction model
enables a more scientific approach to be used in
assessing the risk of machine failure. However, the final
maintenance action decision will also be strongly
influenced by other external factors such as scheduling,
criticality, cost, spares, environmental and safety impact.
Therefore, the need for a maintenance planner will still
continue.
4.2.2 Hydraulic system 3, pump 3
In examining the condition-monitoring measurements of
pump 3, in Fig. 17, it is noticed that a number of
abnormalities exist. A significant time period with no
recorded measurements is observed at machine age
10361216 days, a consequence of the fact that the
pump is on standby. A high measurement, in excess of
20 mm/s, is present, which would normally indicate that
the machine had functionally failed. However, as the
latter measurements indicate, this high measurement was
not normal and probably occurred as a result of process
and/or measurement error.
The abnormally high reading cannot be processed by
the prediction model, except to indicate that the pump has
functionally failed and, hence, does not appear in the
results given in Fig. 18. The predicted time range of
functional failure only narrows when the condition

Fig. 17 Pump 3 condition-monitoring measurements

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 PLANT MACHINERY WORKING LIFE PREDICTION METHOD 121

Fig. 18 Pump 3 prediction model results

measurements are relatively high. Even when the alarm 5 CONCLUSIONS

limit is exceeded, at 992 and 1036 days, the prediction is
still quite broad, thereby indicating no requirement for
immediate maintenance action.
These results show how the predictions focused on to
the estimated failure point of 1259 days, prior to this
point being reached. Once again, the broad predictions in
the stable zone are clearly distinguished from the more
narrowly defined band of failure zone predictions.
A study of the predicted chance of failure between the
monitoring intervals, shown in Fig. 19, indicates an
increasing probability of functional failure. Following the
last condition measurement, the model predicts a 31 per
cent chance of pump failure before the next condition
measurement is taken and, hence, the decision to
maintain the pump at this point is appropriate.
Currently, in industry, condition monitoring can identify
when machine problems are occurring and, given enough
experience, pinpoint the exact cause. However, it is more
difficult to predict the remaining life of the machine once
the problem has been identified and, therefore, when to
change or maintain the machine.
Current literature on remaining life prediction has been
focused predominantly on reliability-based or mathema-
tically complex models. There is clearly a need for a
simple systematic prediction model readily applicable to
the industrial situation.
This paper describes the development of a model
designed to achieve such a method. Condition-monitored
measurements have been divided into two regions: a

Fig. 19 Pump 3 chance of functional failure between monitoring intervals

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122 K B GOODE, J MOORE AND B J ROYLANCE
stable zone and failure zone. While in the stable zone,
condition measurements are normal and, hence, a
reliability-based model is employed. When condition
measurements indicate the existence of a problem, both
reliability and condition-monitoring information are
combined to predict the remaining machine life.
Both simulated and real case studies were investigated
to test the models performance and highlight some of its
implementation difficulties. Arising from these studies it
is evident that the prediction model is dependent on the
quality and accuracy of the condition-monitored
measurements.
It is anticipated that the model will enable a more
systematic approach to assessing the risk of machine
failure and be applicable to most condition-monitored
situations, in which the failure lead time is sufficient and
the condition-monitoring measurements reflect the ma-
chines true health. However, the final maintenance
action decision will inevitably depend on other external
factors such as scheduling, criticality, cost, spares,
environmental and safety impact.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors would like to thank Dr B. J. Hewitt, Director,
Technical, and Mr E. F. Walker, Manager, Technical Co-
ordinator, Welsh Technology Centre, British Steel Strip
Products, for permission to publish this paper and
acknowledge the support of the Engineering and Physical
Sciences Research Council. Thanks are also due to Port
Talbot hot strip mill PCM department and the Llanwern
FMMS department for their help and contribution to this
project.
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