Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Market support schemes to achieve grid Market enabling framework with net metering Framework for full market competition
competitiveness to be phased out over time and priority access to the grid with priority access to the grid
Government stakeholders
Market facilitation and transformation
Market stakeholders (demand side)
Building codes and standards for Energy standards taking into account
PV products and interconnection rules solar PV building regulations and obligations
R&D and PV industry stakeholders (supply side)
Training and education for skilled workforce along the PV value chain;
technology outreach to target audiences/stakeholders
Key findings
uu By 2050, PV global cumulative installed capacity could reach 3000gigawatts, uu The PV industry, grid operators and utilities will need to develop new
providing 4 500 TWh per year, i.e. around 11% of global electricity production. technologies and strategies to integrate large amounts of PV into flexible,
In addition to avoiding 2.3 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2 per year, this level of PV efficient and smart grids.
would deliver substantial benefits in terms of the security of energy supply and
socio-economic development. uu Governments and industry must increase R&D efforts to reduce costs and
ensure PV readiness for rapid deployment, while supporting longer-term
uu In the first decade, PV is expected to reduce system and generation costs by more technology innovations.
than 50%. PV residential and commercial systems will achieve the first level of
grid parity i.e. parity with electricity retail prices by 2020 in many regions. As uu There is a need to expand international collaboration in PV research,
grid parity is achieved, the policy framework should evolve towards fostering development, capacity building and financing to accelerate learning and
self-sustained markets, with the progressive phase-out of economic incentives, avoid duplicating efforts.
but maintaining grid access guarantees and sustained R&D support.
uu Emerging major economies are already investing substantially in PV
OECD/IEA, 2010
uu Towards 2030, typical large-scale utility PV system generation costs are research, development and deployment; however, more needs to be done
expected to decrease to USD 7 to USD 13 cents/kWh. As PV matures into to foster rural electrification and capacity building. Multilateral and bilateral
a mainstream technology, grid integration and management and energy aid organisations should expand their efforts to express the value of PV
storage become key issues. energy in low-carbon economic development.
Solar resource and regional shares of world PV production
OECD Europe
0%
30% 2020 2030 2050
25%
20%
15%
OECD Pacific
0% 25%
2020 2030 2050 20%
Africa and Middle East Developing Asia 15%
5%
25% 25%
30% 0%
20% 20% 2020 2030 2050
25%
15% 15%
20%
10% 10%
15%
5% 5%
10%
0% 0%
5% 2020 2030 2050 2020 2030 2050
0%
2020 2030 2050
600 1600 2900 kWh/m 2/year Map 3TIER 2010, reproduced with permission
2008
2010
2010
2015
2015
2020
2020
2025
2025
2030
2030
2035
2035
2040
2040
2045
2045
2050
2050
PV capacity:
Supported market growth Tangible contribution to High penetration of
Capacity: 200 GW Capacity: 900 GW Capacity: 2 000 GW Capacity: 3 000 GW
27 GW in increasing number of power supply PV in the grid
countries through 2020 Market: 34 GW/yr Market: 105 GW/yr Market: 127 GW/yr Market: 141 GW/yr
Market:
7 GW/yr Share: 1% Share: 5% Share: 9% Share: 11%
electricity generation
4 000 Transition to self- Off-grid
Annual PV electricity
2010: 0.2%
sustained markets
3 000 Utility
(TWh/yr)
2 000 Commercial
1200 TWh/yr
Residential
1 000
300 TWh/yr
40 TWh/yr
0
ntrating ph
Typical electricity generation
ermediate ba
Efficiency rates of industrially
R&D aspects New silicon materials Improved device structures Wafer equivalent technologies Commercial 4 32 144 353 585
and processing Productivity and cost optimisation New device structures with
Cell contacts, emitters in production novel concepts Utility 8 81 368 910 1 498
and passivation
Off-grid 3 32 154 401 695
Thin film technologies 2010 - 2015 2015 - 2020 2020 - 2030
Total 37 298 1 247 2 907 4 572
Efficiency targets Thin film Si: 10% Thin film Si: 12% Thin film Si: 15% Share of global electricity generation in % 0.2 1.3 4.6 8.5 10.8
(commercial modules) Copper-indium/gallium CIGS: 15% CIGS: 18% Photovoltaic capacity in GW 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
(CIGS): 14% CdTe: 14% CdTe: 15%
Cadmium-telluride (CdTe): 12% Residential 17 118 447 957 1 380
Industry manufacturing aspects High rate deposition Simplified production processes Large high-efficiency
Commercial 3 22 99 243 404
Roll-to-roll manufacturing Low cost packaging production units
Packaging Utility 5 49 223 551 908
R&D aspects Large area deposition processes Improved cell structures Advanced materials and
Improved substrates and Improved deposition techniques concepts Off-grid 2 21 103 267 463
transparent conductive oxides
Total 27 210 872 2 019 3 155
Annual photovoltaic market in GW 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Concentrating PV Emerging technologies Novel technologies Residential 4.1 18 50 55 53
Type of cell High cost, super high efficiency Low cost, moderate performance Very high efficiency; full spectrum Commercial 0.7 4 13 17 20
utilisation
Utility 1.6 8 28 37 44
Status and potential 23% alternating current (AC) system Emerging technologies at Wide variety of new conversion
efficiency demonstrated demonstration level (e.g. polymer PV, principle and device concepts at Off-grid 0.6 4 14 19 24
Potential to reach over 30% in the dye PV, printed CIGS) lab level
Total annual market 7.0 34 105 127 141
medium-term First applications expected in niche Family of potential breakthrough
market applications technologies * Assumptions: Interest rate 10%, technical lifetime 25a (2008), 30a (2020), 35a (2030), 40a (2050), operations and maintenance 1%
** Best system prices lower than 3 000 USD/kW were reported in 2009
OECD/IEA, 2010
R&D aspects Reach super high efficiency Improvement of efficiency and Proof-of-principle of new conversion
over 45% stability to the level needed for first concepts *** Average electricity generation per kW is 1 300 kWh/kW in the residential sector, 1 450 kWh/kW in the commercial sector,
Achieve low cost, high-performance commercial applications Processing, characterisation 1 650 kWh/kW in the utility sector and 1 500 kWh/kW in the off-grid sector
solutions for optical concentration Encapsulation of organic-based and modelling of especially
and tracking concepts nanostructured materials and devices
www.iea.org/roadmaps
Solar resource and regional shares of world PV production
OECD Europe
0%
30% 2020 2030 2050
25%
20%
15%
OECD Pacific
0% 25%
2020 2030 2050 20%
Africa and Middle East Developing Asia 15%
5%
25% 25%
30% 0%
20% 20% 2020 2030 2050
25%
15% 15%
20%
10% 10%
15%
5% 5%
10%
0% 0%
5% 2020 2030 2050 2020 2030 2050
0%
2020 2030 2050
600 1600 2900 kWh/m 2/year Map 3TIER 2010, reproduced with permission
2008
2010
2010
2015
2015
2020
2020
2025
2025
2030
2030
2035
2035
2040
2040
2045
2045
2050
2050
PV capacity:
Supported market growth Tangible contribution to High penetration of
Capacity: 200 GW Capacity: 900 GW Capacity: 2 000 GW Capacity: 3 000 GW
27 GW in increasing number of power supply PV in the grid
countries through 2020 Market: 34 GW/yr Market: 105 GW/yr Market: 127 GW/yr Market: 141 GW/yr
Market:
7 GW/yr Share: 1% Share: 5% Share: 9% Share: 11%
electricity generation
4 000 Transition to self- Off-grid
Annual PV electricity
2010: 0.2%
sustained markets
3 000 Utility
(TWh/yr)
2 000 Commercial
1200 TWh/yr
Residential
1 000
300 TWh/yr
40 TWh/yr
0
ntrating ph
Typical electricity generation
ermediate ba
Efficiency rates of industrially
R&D aspects New silicon materials Improved device structures Wafer equivalent technologies Commercial 4 32 144 353 585
and processing Productivity and cost optimisation New device structures with
Cell contacts, emitters in production novel concepts Utility 8 81 368 910 1 498
and passivation
Off-grid 3 32 154 401 695
Thin film technologies 2010 - 2015 2015 - 2020 2020 - 2030
Total 37 298 1 247 2 907 4 572
Efficiency targets Thin film Si: 10% Thin film Si: 12% Thin film Si: 15% Share of global electricity generation in % 0.2 1.3 4.6 8.5 10.8
(commercial modules) Copper-indium/gallium CIGS: 15% CIGS: 18% Photovoltaic capacity in GW 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
(CIGS): 14% CdTe: 14% CdTe: 15%
Cadmium-telluride (CdTe): 12% Residential 17 118 447 957 1 380
Industry manufacturing aspects High rate deposition Simplified production processes Large high-efficiency
Commercial 3 22 99 243 404
Roll-to-roll manufacturing Low cost packaging production units
Packaging Utility 5 49 223 551 908
R&D aspects Large area deposition processes Improved cell structures Advanced materials and
Improved substrates and Improved deposition techniques concepts Off-grid 2 21 103 267 463
transparent conductive oxides
Total 27 210 872 2 019 3 155
Annual photovoltaic market in GW 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Concentrating PV Emerging technologies Novel technologies Residential 4.1 18 50 55 53
Type of cell High cost, super high efficiency Low cost, moderate performance Very high efficiency; full spectrum Commercial 0.7 4 13 17 20
utilisation
Utility 1.6 8 28 37 44
Status and potential 23% alternating current (AC) system Emerging technologies at Wide variety of new conversion
efficiency demonstrated demonstration level (e.g. polymer PV, principle and device concepts at Off-grid 0.6 4 14 19 24
Potential to reach over 30% in the dye PV, printed CIGS) lab level
Total annual market 7.0 34 105 127 141
medium-term First applications expected in niche Family of potential breakthrough
market applications technologies * Assumptions: Interest rate 10%, technical lifetime 25a (2008), 30a (2020), 35a (2030), 40a (2050), operations and maintenance 1%
** Best system prices lower than 3 000 USD/kW were reported in 2009
OECD/IEA, 2010
R&D aspects Reach super high efficiency Improvement of efficiency and Proof-of-principle of new conversion
over 45% stability to the level needed for first concepts *** Average electricity generation per kW is 1 300 kWh/kW in the residential sector, 1 450 kWh/kW in the commercial sector,
Achieve low cost, high-performance commercial applications Processing, characterisation 1 650 kWh/kW in the utility sector and 1 500 kWh/kW in the off-grid sector
solutions for optical concentration Encapsulation of organic-based and modelling of especially
and tracking concepts nanostructured materials and devices
www.iea.org/roadmaps
Solar photovoltaic roadmap milestones
Market support schemes to achieve grid Market enabling framework with net metering Framework for full market competition
competitiveness to be phased out over time and priority access to the grid with priority access to the grid
Government stakeholders
Market facilitation and transformation
Market stakeholders (demand side)
Building codes and standards for Energy standards taking into account
PV products and interconnection rules solar PV building regulations and obligations
R&D and PV industry stakeholders (supply side)
Training and education for skilled workforce along the PV value chain;
technology outreach to target audiences/stakeholders
Key findings
uu By 2050, PV global cumulative installed capacity could reach 3000gigawatts, uu The PV industry, grid operators and utilities will need to develop new
providing 4 500 TWh per year, i.e. around 11% of global electricity production. technologies and strategies to integrate large amounts of PV into flexible,
In addition to avoiding 2.3 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2 per year, this level of PV efficient and smart grids.
would deliver substantial benefits in terms of the security of energy supply and
socio-economic development. uu Governments and industry must increase R&D efforts to reduce costs and
ensure PV readiness for rapid deployment, while supporting longer-term
uu In the first decade, PV is expected to reduce system and generation costs by more technology innovations.
than 50%. PV residential and commercial systems will achieve the first level of
grid parity i.e. parity with electricity retail prices by 2020 in many regions. As uu There is a need to expand international collaboration in PV research,
grid parity is achieved, the policy framework should evolve towards fostering development, capacity building and financing to accelerate learning and
self-sustained markets, with the progressive phase-out of economic incentives, avoid duplicating efforts.
but maintaining grid access guarantees and sustained R&D support.
uu Emerging major economies are already investing substantially in PV
OECD/IEA, 2010
uu Towards 2030, typical large-scale utility PV system generation costs are research, development and deployment; however, more needs to be done
expected to decrease to USD 7 to USD 13 cents/kWh. As PV matures into to foster rural electrification and capacity building. Multilateral and bilateral
a mainstream technology, grid integration and management and energy aid organisations should expand their efforts to express the value of PV
storage become key issues. energy in low-carbon economic development.