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Solar photovoltaic roadmap milestones

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050


GW capacity 200 GW capacity 900 GW capacity 2 000 GW capacity 3 000
Market 34 GW/yr Market 105 GW/yr Market 127 GW/yr Market 141 GW/yr

Regulatory framework and support schemes

Market support schemes to achieve grid Market enabling framework with net metering Framework for full market competition
competitiveness to be phased out over time and priority access to the grid with priority access to the grid

Regulatory framework preparing


large-scale integration of PV into the grid

Internalisation of external costs


for level playing field Key actions and respective
leading roles for:

Government stakeholders
Market facilitation and transformation
Market stakeholders (demand side)
Building codes and standards for Energy standards taking into account
PV products and interconnection rules solar PV building regulations and obligations
R&D and PV industry stakeholders (supply side)

Business models for end Implementation mechanisms for grid investments


users and rural electrification and storage solutions for full scale integration of PV

Training and education for skilled workforce along the PV value chain;
technology outreach to target audiences/stakeholders

Technology development and R&D

Increased R&D funding to accelerate cost Continuous R&D funding on medium-term


Continuous R&D funding on novel concepts and applicability
reductions and transfer to industry PV cell and system technologies

Technical improvements, industrial processes, Enhanced system applicability of PV and


standardisation and scaling-up of manufacturing related technologies and products

Increased performance for PV


Basic and applied research on emerging Research into concepts for ultra high
cell/module technologies and
PV technologies and applications performance/low-cost approaches
balance-of-system components

Smart grid and grid management tools Enhanced storage technologies

International Energy Agency


www.iea.org/roadmaps

SOlar photovoltaic roadmap

Solar PV price competitiveness and growth pathway, 2000-2050

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050


400
Establishment of PV industrial mass production Large-scale integration of PV power in the grid PV systems and power for general purpose use
Typical utility system 1 00 Utility price: USD 1 800/kW Utility price: USD 1 200/kW Utility price: USD 800/kW
0 kW
350price: USD 4 000/kW h/k
Electricity generation costs (USD per MWh)

W Costs: USD 105/MWh Costs: USD 70/MWh Costs: USD 45/MWh


Typical utility
300electricity generation PV residential
costs: USD 240/MWh
Estimated retail electricity prices
1st competi-
250 tiveness level:
PV least cost PV ut 2 000 k 2nd competitiveness level:
option in ility 1 500
kWh/ Wh/kW PV generation costs = retail electricity
200 selected kW prices and tariffs BLUE Map retail electricity costs
applications 2 000
kWh/
kW
150 BLUE Map retail
electricity costs BLUE Map wholesale electricity costs
100 Note: PV
PV residential
electricity
generation BLUE Map wholesale electricity costs PV utility
50 costs are
calculated
with a 10% 3rd competitiveness level:
PV generation costs = wholesale electricity costs
0 discount rate

Key findings
uu By 2050, PV global cumulative installed capacity could reach 3000gigawatts, uu The PV industry, grid operators and utilities will need to develop new
providing 4 500 TWh per year, i.e. around 11% of global electricity production. technologies and strategies to integrate large amounts of PV into flexible,
In addition to avoiding 2.3 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2 per year, this level of PV efficient and smart grids.
would deliver substantial benefits in terms of the security of energy supply and
socio-economic development. uu Governments and industry must increase R&D efforts to reduce costs and
ensure PV readiness for rapid deployment, while supporting longer-term
uu In the first decade, PV is expected to reduce system and generation costs by more technology innovations.
than 50%. PV residential and commercial systems will achieve the first level of
grid parity i.e. parity with electricity retail prices by 2020 in many regions. As uu There is a need to expand international collaboration in PV research,
grid parity is achieved, the policy framework should evolve towards fostering development, capacity building and financing to accelerate learning and
self-sustained markets, with the progressive phase-out of economic incentives, avoid duplicating efforts.
but maintaining grid access guarantees and sustained R&D support.
uu Emerging major economies are already investing substantially in PV
OECD/IEA, 2010

uu Towards 2030, typical large-scale utility PV system generation costs are research, development and deployment; however, more needs to be done
expected to decrease to USD 7 to USD 13 cents/kWh. As PV matures into to foster rural electrification and capacity building. Multilateral and bilateral
a mainstream technology, grid integration and management and energy aid organisations should expand their efforts to express the value of PV
storage become key issues. energy in low-carbon economic development.
Solar resource and regional shares of world PV production

OECD Europe

Share of global PV production


30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
OECD North America
Share of global PV production

0%
30% 2020 2030 2050

25%
20%
15%
OECD Pacific

Share of global PV production


10%
5% 30%

0% 25%
2020 2030 2050 20%
Africa and Middle East Developing Asia 15%

Share of global PV production

Share of global PV production


10%
Latin America 30% 30%
Share of global PV production

5%
25% 25%
30% 0%
20% 20% 2020 2030 2050
25%
15% 15%
20%
10% 10%
15%
5% 5%
10%
0% 0%
5% 2020 2030 2050 2020 2030 2050
0%
2020 2030 2050

Global Horizontal Irradiance

600 1600 2900 kWh/m 2/year Map 3TIER 2010, reproduced with permission

2008
2010
2010
2015
2015
2020
2020
2025
2025
2030
2030
2035
2035
2040
2040
2045
2045
2050
2050

PV capacity:
Supported market growth Tangible contribution to High penetration of
Capacity: 200 GW Capacity: 900 GW Capacity: 2 000 GW Capacity: 3 000 GW
27 GW in increasing number of power supply PV in the grid
countries through 2020 Market: 34 GW/yr Market: 105 GW/yr Market: 127 GW/yr Market: 141 GW/yr
Market:
7 GW/yr Share: 1% Share: 5% Share: 9% Share: 11%

Share of global 4 500 TWh/yr


generation in terawatt-hours

electricity generation
4 000 Transition to self- Off-grid
Annual PV electricity

2010: 0.2%
sustained markets
3 000 Utility
(TWh/yr)

2 000 Commercial
1200 TWh/yr
Residential
1 000
300 TWh/yr
40 TWh/yr
0

Solar PV technology milestones Solar PV economic milestones


PV technology status and prospects
Targets for residential sector 2008 2020 2030 2050
40%
hnologies
III Emerging tec
Typical turn-key system price (2008 USD/kW) * 6 000 2 700 1 800 1 200
ts
and novel concep 2 000 kWh/kW 360 160 100 65
ic s
otovolta nd gaps,
manufactured module/product

ntrating ph
Typical electricity generation
ermediate ba
Efficiency rates of industrially

IV Conce converters, int


30% 1 500 kWh/kW 480 210 135 90
an tu m we lls, up-down ph ot ov olt aic s, etc costs (2008 USD/MWh)
Qu thermo-
plasmonics, 1 000 kWh/kW 720 315 205 135
Targets for commercial sector 2008 2020 2030 2050
20%
technologies:
I Crystalline silicon
Typical turn-key system price (2008 USD/kW) 5 000 2 250 1 500 1 000
-film technologies
single crystalline, multi-cr
ystalline, ribbon Advanced inorganic thin
2 000 kWh/kW 300 130 85 55
logies:
II Thin-film techno II-VI compounds, thin
-film silicon Typical electricity generation
10% llium ,-di sele nid e/d isulphide and related costs (2008 USD/MWh) 1 500 kWh/kW 400 175 115 75
cadmium-telluride , copper-indium/ga Orga nic solar cells
1 000 kWh/kW 600 260 170 110
Targets for utility sector 2008 2020 2030 2050
2008 2020 2030
0 Typical turn-key system price (2008 USD/kW) ** 4 000 1 800 1 200 800

2 000 kWh/kW 240 105 70 45


Crystalline silicon technologies 2010 - 2015 2015 - 2020 2020 - 2030 / 2050
Typical electricity generation
costs (2008 USD/MWh) 1 500 kWh/kW 320 140 90 60
Efficiency targets Single-crystalline: 21% Single-crystalline: 23% Single-crystalline: 25%
(commercial modules) Multi-crystalline: 17% Multi-crystalline: 19% Multi-crystalline: 21% 1 000 kWh/kW 480 210 135 90
Photovoltaic electricity generation in TWh *** 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Industry manufacturing aspects Silicon (Si) consumption Si consumption < 3 g/W Si consumption < 2 g/W
< 5 grams / watt (g/w) Residential 23 153 581 1 244 1 794

R&D aspects New silicon materials Improved device structures Wafer equivalent technologies Commercial 4 32 144 353 585
and processing Productivity and cost optimisation New device structures with
Cell contacts, emitters in production novel concepts Utility 8 81 368 910 1 498
and passivation
Off-grid 3 32 154 401 695
Thin film technologies 2010 - 2015 2015 - 2020 2020 - 2030
Total 37 298 1 247 2 907 4 572

Efficiency targets Thin film Si: 10% Thin film Si: 12% Thin film Si: 15% Share of global electricity generation in % 0.2 1.3 4.6 8.5 10.8
(commercial modules) Copper-indium/gallium CIGS: 15% CIGS: 18% Photovoltaic capacity in GW 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
(CIGS): 14% CdTe: 14% CdTe: 15%
Cadmium-telluride (CdTe): 12% Residential 17 118 447 957 1 380
Industry manufacturing aspects High rate deposition Simplified production processes Large high-efficiency
Commercial 3 22 99 243 404
Roll-to-roll manufacturing Low cost packaging production units
Packaging Utility 5 49 223 551 908
R&D aspects Large area deposition processes Improved cell structures Advanced materials and
Improved substrates and Improved deposition techniques concepts Off-grid 2 21 103 267 463
transparent conductive oxides
Total 27 210 872 2 019 3 155
Annual photovoltaic market in GW 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Concentrating PV Emerging technologies Novel technologies Residential 4.1 18 50 55 53

Type of cell High cost, super high efficiency Low cost, moderate performance Very high efficiency; full spectrum Commercial 0.7 4 13 17 20
utilisation
Utility 1.6 8 28 37 44
Status and potential 23% alternating current (AC) system Emerging technologies at Wide variety of new conversion
efficiency demonstrated demonstration level (e.g. polymer PV, principle and device concepts at Off-grid 0.6 4 14 19 24
Potential to reach over 30% in the dye PV, printed CIGS) lab level
Total annual market 7.0 34 105 127 141
medium-term First applications expected in niche Family of potential breakthrough
market applications technologies * Assumptions: Interest rate 10%, technical lifetime 25a (2008), 30a (2020), 35a (2030), 40a (2050), operations and maintenance 1%
** Best system prices lower than 3 000 USD/kW were reported in 2009
OECD/IEA, 2010

R&D aspects Reach super high efficiency Improvement of efficiency and Proof-of-principle of new conversion
over 45% stability to the level needed for first concepts *** Average electricity generation per kW is 1 300 kWh/kW in the residential sector, 1 450 kWh/kW in the commercial sector,
Achieve low cost, high-performance commercial applications Processing, characterisation 1 650 kWh/kW in the utility sector and 1 500 kWh/kW in the off-grid sector
solutions for optical concentration Encapsulation of organic-based and modelling of especially
and tracking concepts nanostructured materials and devices

www.iea.org/roadmaps
Solar resource and regional shares of world PV production

OECD Europe

Share of global PV production


30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
OECD North America
Share of global PV production

0%
30% 2020 2030 2050

25%
20%
15%
OECD Pacific

Share of global PV production


10%
5% 30%

0% 25%
2020 2030 2050 20%
Africa and Middle East Developing Asia 15%

Share of global PV production

Share of global PV production


10%
Latin America 30% 30%
Share of global PV production

5%
25% 25%
30% 0%
20% 20% 2020 2030 2050
25%
15% 15%
20%
10% 10%
15%
5% 5%
10%
0% 0%
5% 2020 2030 2050 2020 2030 2050
0%
2020 2030 2050

Global Horizontal Irradiance

600 1600 2900 kWh/m 2/year Map 3TIER 2010, reproduced with permission

2008
2010
2010
2015
2015
2020
2020
2025
2025
2030
2030
2035
2035
2040
2040
2045
2045
2050
2050

PV capacity:
Supported market growth Tangible contribution to High penetration of
Capacity: 200 GW Capacity: 900 GW Capacity: 2 000 GW Capacity: 3 000 GW
27 GW in increasing number of power supply PV in the grid
countries through 2020 Market: 34 GW/yr Market: 105 GW/yr Market: 127 GW/yr Market: 141 GW/yr
Market:
7 GW/yr Share: 1% Share: 5% Share: 9% Share: 11%

Share of global 4 500 TWh/yr


generation in terawatt-hours

electricity generation
4 000 Transition to self- Off-grid
Annual PV electricity

2010: 0.2%
sustained markets
3 000 Utility
(TWh/yr)

2 000 Commercial
1200 TWh/yr
Residential
1 000
300 TWh/yr
40 TWh/yr
0

Solar PV technology milestones Solar PV economic milestones


PV technology status and prospects
Targets for residential sector 2008 2020 2030 2050
40%
hnologies
III Emerging tec
Typical turn-key system price (2008 USD/kW) * 6 000 2 700 1 800 1 200
ts
and novel concep 2 000 kWh/kW 360 160 100 65
ic s
otovolta nd gaps,
manufactured module/product

ntrating ph
Typical electricity generation
ermediate ba
Efficiency rates of industrially

IV Conce converters, int


30% 1 500 kWh/kW 480 210 135 90
an tu m we lls, up-down ph ot ov olt aic s, etc costs (2008 USD/MWh)
Qu thermo-
plasmonics, 1 000 kWh/kW 720 315 205 135
Targets for commercial sector 2008 2020 2030 2050
20%
technologies:
I Crystalline silicon
Typical turn-key system price (2008 USD/kW) 5 000 2 250 1 500 1 000
-film technologies
single crystalline, multi-cr
ystalline, ribbon Advanced inorganic thin
2 000 kWh/kW 300 130 85 55
logies:
II Thin-film techno II-VI compounds, thin
-film silicon Typical electricity generation
10% llium ,-di sele nid e/d isulphide and related costs (2008 USD/MWh) 1 500 kWh/kW 400 175 115 75
cadmium-telluride , copper-indium/ga Orga nic solar cells
1 000 kWh/kW 600 260 170 110
Targets for utility sector 2008 2020 2030 2050
2008 2020 2030
0 Typical turn-key system price (2008 USD/kW) ** 4 000 1 800 1 200 800

2 000 kWh/kW 240 105 70 45


Crystalline silicon technologies 2010 - 2015 2015 - 2020 2020 - 2030 / 2050
Typical electricity generation
costs (2008 USD/MWh) 1 500 kWh/kW 320 140 90 60
Efficiency targets Single-crystalline: 21% Single-crystalline: 23% Single-crystalline: 25%
(commercial modules) Multi-crystalline: 17% Multi-crystalline: 19% Multi-crystalline: 21% 1 000 kWh/kW 480 210 135 90
Photovoltaic electricity generation in TWh *** 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Industry manufacturing aspects Silicon (Si) consumption Si consumption < 3 g/W Si consumption < 2 g/W
< 5 grams / watt (g/w) Residential 23 153 581 1 244 1 794

R&D aspects New silicon materials Improved device structures Wafer equivalent technologies Commercial 4 32 144 353 585
and processing Productivity and cost optimisation New device structures with
Cell contacts, emitters in production novel concepts Utility 8 81 368 910 1 498
and passivation
Off-grid 3 32 154 401 695
Thin film technologies 2010 - 2015 2015 - 2020 2020 - 2030
Total 37 298 1 247 2 907 4 572

Efficiency targets Thin film Si: 10% Thin film Si: 12% Thin film Si: 15% Share of global electricity generation in % 0.2 1.3 4.6 8.5 10.8
(commercial modules) Copper-indium/gallium CIGS: 15% CIGS: 18% Photovoltaic capacity in GW 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
(CIGS): 14% CdTe: 14% CdTe: 15%
Cadmium-telluride (CdTe): 12% Residential 17 118 447 957 1 380
Industry manufacturing aspects High rate deposition Simplified production processes Large high-efficiency
Commercial 3 22 99 243 404
Roll-to-roll manufacturing Low cost packaging production units
Packaging Utility 5 49 223 551 908
R&D aspects Large area deposition processes Improved cell structures Advanced materials and
Improved substrates and Improved deposition techniques concepts Off-grid 2 21 103 267 463
transparent conductive oxides
Total 27 210 872 2 019 3 155
Annual photovoltaic market in GW 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Concentrating PV Emerging technologies Novel technologies Residential 4.1 18 50 55 53

Type of cell High cost, super high efficiency Low cost, moderate performance Very high efficiency; full spectrum Commercial 0.7 4 13 17 20
utilisation
Utility 1.6 8 28 37 44
Status and potential 23% alternating current (AC) system Emerging technologies at Wide variety of new conversion
efficiency demonstrated demonstration level (e.g. polymer PV, principle and device concepts at Off-grid 0.6 4 14 19 24
Potential to reach over 30% in the dye PV, printed CIGS) lab level
Total annual market 7.0 34 105 127 141
medium-term First applications expected in niche Family of potential breakthrough
market applications technologies * Assumptions: Interest rate 10%, technical lifetime 25a (2008), 30a (2020), 35a (2030), 40a (2050), operations and maintenance 1%
** Best system prices lower than 3 000 USD/kW were reported in 2009
OECD/IEA, 2010

R&D aspects Reach super high efficiency Improvement of efficiency and Proof-of-principle of new conversion
over 45% stability to the level needed for first concepts *** Average electricity generation per kW is 1 300 kWh/kW in the residential sector, 1 450 kWh/kW in the commercial sector,
Achieve low cost, high-performance commercial applications Processing, characterisation 1 650 kWh/kW in the utility sector and 1 500 kWh/kW in the off-grid sector
solutions for optical concentration Encapsulation of organic-based and modelling of especially
and tracking concepts nanostructured materials and devices

www.iea.org/roadmaps
Solar photovoltaic roadmap milestones

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050


GW capacity 200 GW capacity 900 GW capacity 2 000 GW capacity 3 000
Market 34 GW/yr Market 105 GW/yr Market 127 GW/yr Market 141 GW/yr

Regulatory framework and support schemes

Market support schemes to achieve grid Market enabling framework with net metering Framework for full market competition
competitiveness to be phased out over time and priority access to the grid with priority access to the grid

Regulatory framework preparing


large-scale integration of PV into the grid

Internalisation of external costs


for level playing field Key actions and respective
leading roles for:

Government stakeholders
Market facilitation and transformation
Market stakeholders (demand side)
Building codes and standards for Energy standards taking into account
PV products and interconnection rules solar PV building regulations and obligations
R&D and PV industry stakeholders (supply side)

Business models for end Implementation mechanisms for grid investments


users and rural electrification and storage solutions for full scale integration of PV

Training and education for skilled workforce along the PV value chain;
technology outreach to target audiences/stakeholders

Technology development and R&D

Increased R&D funding to accelerate cost Continuous R&D funding on medium-term


Continuous R&D funding on novel concepts and applicability
reductions and transfer to industry PV cell and system technologies

Technical improvements, industrial processes, Enhanced system applicability of PV and


standardisation and scaling-up of manufacturing related technologies and products

Increased performance for PV


Basic and applied research on emerging Research into concepts for ultra high
cell/module technologies and
PV technologies and applications performance/low-cost approaches
balance-of-system components

Smart grid and grid management tools Enhanced storage technologies

International Energy Agency


www.iea.org/roadmaps

SOlar photovoltaic roadmap

Solar PV price competitiveness and growth pathway, 2000-2050

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050


400
Establishment of PV industrial mass production Large-scale integration of PV power in the grid PV systems and power for general purpose use
Typical utility system 1 00 Utility price: USD 1 800/kW Utility price: USD 1 200/kW Utility price: USD 800/kW
0 kW
350price: USD 4 000/kW h/k
Electricity generation costs (USD per MWh)

W Costs: USD 105/MWh Costs: USD 70/MWh Costs: USD 45/MWh


Typical utility
300electricity generation PV residential
costs: USD 240/MWh
Estimated retail electricity prices
1st competi-
250 tiveness level:
PV least cost PV ut 2 000 k 2nd competitiveness level:
option in ility 1 500
kWh/ Wh/kW PV generation costs = retail electricity
200 selected kW prices and tariffs BLUE Map retail electricity costs
applications 2 000
kWh/
kW
150 BLUE Map retail
electricity costs BLUE Map wholesale electricity costs
100 Note: PV
PV residential
electricity
generation BLUE Map wholesale electricity costs PV utility
50 costs are
calculated
with a 10% 3rd competitiveness level:
PV generation costs = wholesale electricity costs
0 discount rate

Key findings
uu By 2050, PV global cumulative installed capacity could reach 3000gigawatts, uu The PV industry, grid operators and utilities will need to develop new
providing 4 500 TWh per year, i.e. around 11% of global electricity production. technologies and strategies to integrate large amounts of PV into flexible,
In addition to avoiding 2.3 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2 per year, this level of PV efficient and smart grids.
would deliver substantial benefits in terms of the security of energy supply and
socio-economic development. uu Governments and industry must increase R&D efforts to reduce costs and
ensure PV readiness for rapid deployment, while supporting longer-term
uu In the first decade, PV is expected to reduce system and generation costs by more technology innovations.
than 50%. PV residential and commercial systems will achieve the first level of
grid parity i.e. parity with electricity retail prices by 2020 in many regions. As uu There is a need to expand international collaboration in PV research,
grid parity is achieved, the policy framework should evolve towards fostering development, capacity building and financing to accelerate learning and
self-sustained markets, with the progressive phase-out of economic incentives, avoid duplicating efforts.
but maintaining grid access guarantees and sustained R&D support.
uu Emerging major economies are already investing substantially in PV
OECD/IEA, 2010

uu Towards 2030, typical large-scale utility PV system generation costs are research, development and deployment; however, more needs to be done
expected to decrease to USD 7 to USD 13 cents/kWh. As PV matures into to foster rural electrification and capacity building. Multilateral and bilateral
a mainstream technology, grid integration and management and energy aid organisations should expand their efforts to express the value of PV
storage become key issues. energy in low-carbon economic development.