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The USD/CHF (slide 11) seems to have turned down in a major way. A loss of support 0.9550 will turn the medium-term outlook negative.
For the long-term outlook it is the support at 0.94.
The medium-term uptrend in the US T-Notes Yield (slide 12) is gaining strength. The Medium-term Rating is upgraded to UP. A break of
2.30% will confirm the medium-term uptrend. The long-term resistance is 2.45%.
The Future price (slide 13) has topped as expected below 128 and turned down. With this downturn also the Utility stocks have broken
downwards. Support in the continuous Future is 124.50 and 124.
The CRB Index (slide 14) turned up at the exact long-term support 166/165. It is upgraded to medium-term FLAT and is close to another
upgrade to UP if 177 breaks. My long-term bearish outlook is under review.
Crude oil (slide 15) has turned upwards from just above support 41. It is upgraded to medium-term FLAT and is close to UP if 47/48 is
cleared.
Gold (slide 16) could see another short-term rebound. The fact that Gold managed to hold ground over the last 3 months while momentum
was down is a potentially bullish signal. My long-term outlook remains negative, but is under review. Obviously, a more bullish Gold-view
would be supported by a USD decline below CHF 0.94.
The Bitcoin (slide 17) is likely to remain in a wide trading range. Higher targets are likely later this year.
The SMI (slides 18 and 19) re-entered the corrective pattern. A break of 8700/8550 would signal that the major trend has turned down.
Lower supports are 8200 and 8100.
EUR/CHF (slide 20) managed to hold medium-term support around 1.0850 and turned up again. Now, it requires a break of 1.10 to signal
higher targets.
The FTSE (slide 24) turned down from the Wedge as I expected. It is testing the lower end of its Wedge at 7300 and will turn down if
support 7200 breaks. The FTSE is among the first indices to have turned down the Medium-term and Long-term Momentum Indicators.
I gave the GBP/USD (slide 25) another week to confirm my bullish outlook, and it confirmed. The next resistance is 1.33.
The same holds true for the EUR/USD (slide 28) which cleared 1.13. It is upgraded to Long-term UP.
The DAX (slides 26 and 27) finally turned down from resistance 13,000. A break of 11,900 will negate the scenario of Wave 5 higher until
4Q. Among the single European stocks there are only 8 stocks that still have a positive Score.
The Nikkei 225 Index (slide 32) entered a mild correction below long-term resistance 20,500. Key support to watch is 19,000.
Most stock markets have triggered the 3 Signals of a medium-term top: 1) Short-term Momentum peak followed by 2) a Medium-
term Momentum peak and 3) a crossing of the STMom below the MTMom. The FTSE is the first among the big indices to already
trigger Signal 4, i.e. the Long-term momentum top and is close to the final Signal 5, i.e. the MTMom cross below the LTMom. July
will be the critical month to decide if the present correction is Wave 4, still to be followed by Wave 5 upwards until 4Q or, if a bear
market is already in the making. Therfore, you should focus on the key support levels to take appropriate action.
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2016 M A M J J A S O N D 2017 M A M J J A S O N June July
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SMI PR 9250
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tober November December 2017 February March April May June July
2 ABB LTD N/d /ABBN.S 23.68 d- d- 0 Major res 25 and 26.20/70. SELL if 23.80/50 and 22.90 breaks.
4 ACTELION HLDG/d /ATLN.S 267.75 dd- d- +
6 ADECCO N/d /ADEN.S 72.9 d- - + SELL signals if supports 71.70, 70, 68.50, 65 break.
0 ARYZTA AG/d /ARYN.S 31.53 - - - Trading range between 34.50 and 29.
9 BALOISE HLD N/d /BALN.S 148.2 - 0 + SOLD 155. Next downgrades if 146 breaks. Sup 141.
2 BARRY CALLEBAU/d /BARN.S 1318 d- - 0 SOLD <1345. More weakness upon break <1315, 1260.
18 CLARIANT N/d /CLN.S 21.12 + + + SELL if 19.90, 19.10 breaks. Resistance 21.70, 23.0
14 CS GROUP AG/d /CSGN.S 13.86 + + 0 Managed to hold 13/12.90 and is heading for res 13.90/14.50.
6 DUFRY AG/d /DUFN.S 157.1 - - + SELL <155 and 151. Support 143.
4 FISCHER N/d /FIN.S 928.5 - d- u+ Break of 910, 890 and 855 will trigger MT and LT SELL signals.
0 VIFOR PHARMA/d /VIFN.S 105.7 - - - Waiting for bottom signals.
4 GEBERIT N1/d /GEBN.S 447.2 d- dd- 0 Touched briefly the SELL level <450. Supports 448/444, 430, 422.
4 GIVAUDAN N/d /GIVN.S 1918 - - 0 SOLD <1960 and 1925. Next support 1870, 1820, 1770.
0 LAFARGEHOLCIM/d /LHN.S 54.9 dd- - d- Likely to fall to support 55/54. SELL if broken. Next sup 51.
1 IMPLENIA N/d /IMPN.S 71.8 0 d- - SELL if 71, 67 breaks.
6 JULIUS BAER N/d /BAER.S 50.45 dd- dd- + SELL <48.50. Support 46.50.
4 KUDELSKI/d /KUD.S 16.35 0 0 - SELL signals <15.90, 15.40. Support 14.70, 12.70. 04.05.2017 17.55 -6.84%
15 KUEHNE & NAGEL/d /KNIN.S 160 + + + Major resistance 164/167. SELL < 153/152, 147, 142.
2 LINDT & SP PS/d /LISP.S 5560 - - 0 Upgrade within trading range. SELL <5700, 5550. Sup 5400, 5250. 09.05.2017 5750.00 -3.30%
10 LOGITECH/d /LOGN.S 35.25 0 d0 + Upgrade within trading range. SELL 33. Support 30.50.
18 LONZA GRP AG N/d /LONN.S 207.3 + + + Appears as double-top. SELL <195. Support 191/187.
15 MEYER BURGER N/d /MBTN.S 1.2 dd- + + Likely to rise to long-term resistance 1.40.
18 NESTLE SA/d /NESN.S 83.45 + + + Held >80. Added another upleg. New supports 82.10, 80.
15 NOVARTIS N/d /NOVN.S 79.8 dd- + + Reached long-term res 84. Downgrade <79.50, 77.50/77.0.
18 OC OERLIKON CO/d /OERL.S 12.6 + + + SELL signal <12.10, 11.60. Support 10.80.
15 PANALPINA WELT/d /PWTN.S 134.9 + + + Still testing major resistance 137. Next is 150. SELL <126, 122.
4 PARGESA I/d /PARG.S 72.95 d- - + Resistance and target remains 80.50. SELL 73, 71.50. Sup 68.50.
8 PARTNERS GROUP/d /PGHN.S 594.5 u0 u0 + Looks set to top. SELL upon break of 580. Support 562/60.
4 PSP CH PRPTY N/d /PSPN.S 89.6 u0 0 - Failed at major resistance 93. SELL break 88.50, 86.20.
4 RICHEMONT N/d /CFR.S 79 dd- - + SELL if supports at 78/77 and 73.50 break. Sup 69, 66, 63.
4 RIETER N/d /RIEN.S 218.9 dd- d- + Trading range. SELL <215 and 208. Support 196.
2 ROCHE HOLDING /d /ROG.S 244.2 dd- - 0 SELL again <242, 238. Support 233/225. Res 261/263.
4 SCHINDLER PS/d /SCHP.S 202.9 dd- dd- + Trading range. SELL <202, 196, 187.
5 SWISS RE N/d /SRENH.S 87.65 dd- d0 0 Failed to break 91.40. Support and SELL 88, 85.50. 04.05.2017 88.90 -1.41%
7 SGS N/d /SGSN.S 2322 d- d0 + Briefly fell below SELL <2330. SELL again <2320, 2270, 2240, 2180.
4 SIKA I/d /SIK.S 6160 - d- + SELL <6100, 6000. Support 5880.
9 SONOVA H AG/d /SOON.S 155.7 - d0 + SOLD 166 and 160. Next SELL <157, 152.
2 SWISS PRIME SI/d /SPSN.S 87.1 - - 0 SOLD 87.50. SELL 84.50. Support 84.50, 82.
12 STRAUMANN HLD /d /STMN.S 545.5 dd- + + Would SELL if supports 530, 510 fail to hold.
0 SULZER N/d /SUN.S 108.7 d- d- d- All neutral but close to downgrades <108.50, 105.50, 103.
2 SWATCH GROUP I/d /UHR.S 354.1 d- - d0 Sold 388 and 370. LT support 356, 349.
4 SWISS LIFE HLD/d /SLHN.S 323.6 - - u+ SOLD first support <325. Next SELL <318, 312, 303 and 288.
16 SWISSCOM N/d /SCMN.S 462.7 d0 + + SELL <461. Support 455, 443. 15.05.2017 457.50 1.14%
2 SYNGENTA N/d /SYNN.S 444 d- - 0 SELL if 437, 426 breaks. Support 416/405.
13 TECAN HLD N/d /TECN.S 180.3 u0 + + Would SELL level <176, 171, 161. Support 147.
0 TRANSOCEAN N/d /RIGN.S 7.865 d- - - Needs a rise above 8.20 for a short-term turnaround.
18 UBS GROUP N/d /UBSG.S 16.24 + + + Managed to hold above 15/14.90. Likely to rise to 16.70/16.80.
1 VALORA N/d /VALN.S 306.5 d0 - - Rebound from key sup 295. SOLD <324, 310. SELL again 295.
14 VOEGELE CHARLE/d /VCH.S 6.3 0 + u+
3 ZURICH INSURAN/d /ZURN.S 279.1 - d0 d- SOLD <286. Minor profit of 4%. Support 274, 262.
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Disclaimer
The information published and opinions expressed are provided by Rolf P. Bertschi for personal use and for informational purposes only. The
information is not intended to provide specific financial, investment, tax, legal or accounting advice for you, and is not intended to be relied upon in that
regards. You should not act or rely on the information without professional assistance. Non information published in this paper constitutes an offer or
recommendation, to buy or sell any investment instruments, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever. Rolf P.
Bertschi disclaims, without intention, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind, including any direct, indirect or consequential damages, which might
be incurred through the use of any information in this presentation. The entire content of this paper is subject to copyright with all rights reserved. You
may save or print out a hard copy, provided that you do not remove any copyright or other proprietary notices. All property rights shall remain with Rolf
P. Bertschi. The content of this paper may not be reproduced (in whole or in part), transmitted (by electronic means or otherwise), modified, linked into
or used for any public or commercial purpose without the prior written permission of Rolf P. Bertschi.
Sources
The charts in this publication are from Metastock of Thomson Reuters
Explanations
For a more detailed explanation of the Trend and Momentum Models applied in this Chart Outlook, please order
Technical Analysis Explained under rolf.bertschi@chartoutlook.ch
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