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By Steve Sternberg
Primetime TV Insight – Fall TV Preview Edition – A Baseline Intelligence Report
REPORT SUMMARY
For American television viewers, the new primetime TV season is three months away.
However, for insiders who analyze the video landscape and television marketplace, the season
has already begun.
In 2010, it has become clear that the television industry is in the midst of an identity crisis.
Viewers are consuming video‐based media in new formats at an unprecedented pace while
expanded DVR usage has hit a tipping point that traditional media advertisers can no longer
ignore. Simultaneously, broadcast and cable networks are searching for effective ways to
monetize their premium content online and marketers are searching for methods to extend
their video reach beyond the traditional TV screen. TV Everywhere may be the most effective
way to accomplish these goals.
Viewers, of course, care little about corporate ownership, advertising, or platform dominance.
They simply want to be entertained. For some, this means engagement at home, while for
others it means access through a laptop, iPad, or even a mobile device. Whatever the case,
new series survival rates clearly show that viewers care less about how they access content and
more about its quality.
To help evaluate the rocky television content and advertising landscapes, Baseline Intelligence,
a part of the New York Times Company, is proud to announce the inaugural edition of
Primetime Television Insight – a series of three annual reports assessing key small‐screen
trends and audience changes.
The first of these reports, the Fall TV Preview edition, evaluates a number of integral topics
including: the impact of DVRs and video streaming on television ratings, impending changes in
research and how audiences are measured, programming trends and individual network
strategies, and new series hits and misses.
The Fall TV Preview edition will not only provide valuable insights into the new primetime
television season, but will also deliver enough trending information to serve as a reference tool
throughout the year.
Author Steve Sternberg is one of the most influential and widely quoted media analysts in the
television industry. He has been the top Video Research and Audience Analysis executive at
major ad agencies and media companies like Magna, TN Media, Bozell, McCann‐Erickson, and
Ted Bates. Steve received Ad Age’s Media Maven award in 1996 and 2007, and Media Week’s
Media All Star Award in 2003.
Baseline Intelligence | Jim Lukowitsch | jim.lukowitsch@baselineresearch.com | 310‐482‐3428
Primetime TV Insight – Fall TV Preview Edition – A Baseline Intelligence Report
The Fall TV Preview Report appeals to a wide array of professionals, including:
Single Issue of the Fall TV Preview Edition ‐ $900
Annual Subscription to Primetime TV Insight (Fall TV Preview Edition, New Series Performance
and Prognosis Edition, Mid‐Season Update Edition) ‐ $1800
Page Count – 110
Networks Covered – 40+
Format – Hardcopy; Perfect Binding
Delivery – Approx 1 week from order
Baseline Intelligence | Jim Lukowitsch | jim.lukowitsch@baselineresearch.com | 310‐482‐3428
Primetime TV Insight – Fall TV Preview Edition – A Baseline Intelligence Report
Baseline Intelligence | Jim Lukowitsch | jim.lukowitsch@baselineresearch.com | 310‐482‐3428
Primetime TV Insight – Fall TV Preview Edition – A Baseline Intelligence Report
KEY FINDINGS and SELECTED ANALYSIS
Roughly 40% of viewing to the broadcast networks during primetime is time‐shifted via
DVRs. Those viewers are about 10 years younger, on average, than live TV viewers.
The combined time spent with online videos, social networks, blogs, and mobile videos
is only 3% of traditional TV viewing. Trends depict a rise to about 8% next season.
Hulu and the broadcast network entertainment websites combined account for nearly
20% of all time spent video streaming. YouTube accounts for 46%.
Cross‐platform audience measurement will soon be here. Nielsen will provide data next
year that combines television and online viewing of the same episodes into a single
rating. Set‐top audience measurement, on the other hand, is nowhere near being ready
to use as marketplace currency.
The two major causes of broadcast audience erosion remain the increasing number of
available channels and mid‐season repeats. This decade, homes receiving more than
100 channels grew from just 10% to 70% of the U.S.
Only 15% of all the new series that debuted during the past five seasons will still be on
the air this fall. Developing and sustaining successful broadcast series (without CSI,
NCIS, or Law and Order in the title) is more difficult than ever.
Over the past 10 years, one of the most significant trends affecting where new series
landed on the schedule, and whether or not a borderline series was renewed, has been
the increased ownership of programming by the host network.
The number of comedies on national television has more than doubled in the past
decade. And people are spending more time watching them than ever. The top 10 in
terms of time spent viewing among adults 18‐49 this season are, Family Guy, The Office,
Roseanne, George Lopez, Two and a Half Men, King of the Hill, Seinfeld, Everybody Loves
Raymond, Friends, and That ‘70s Show.
Over the past decade, only 30% of the series with the most pre‐season buzz became
successful – slightly lower than the average new series success rate during the same
period.
The average median viewer age of the Big Four broadcast networks in primetime is over
50. There are more than 40 cable networks with median ages under 50 in primetime.
Baseline Intelligence | Jim Lukowitsch | jim.lukowitsch@baselineresearch.com | 310‐482‐3428