7/5/2010

Technology Roadmap – Solar  The IEA......

Photovoltaic Energy
• Energy Security
• Analysis and Policy Advice
• Flagship publications
– Energy Technology Perspectives 2010
A i S
Asian Solar
l Energy
E – World Energy Outlook 2010
Forum • Energy Technology Initiatives
Manila Philippines
– 42 Cooperative Agreements including
5-6 July 2010
– PVSPS
Dr Adam Brown – Solar PACES
IEA Paris

Low-carbon energy technology roadmaps Low-carbon energy technology roadmaps

© OECD/IEA 2010 © OECD/IEA 2010

IEA Energy Technology Perspectives  In the BLUE Map scenario, most of the reductions in 
energy‐related CO2 emissions are in non‐OECD 
2010 countries…………
60
Gt CO2

Baseline emissions 57 Gt CCS 19%
55 60
Gt CO2
Baseline emissions 57 Gt
50 55 Other Non‐OECD 19%
Renewables 17%
45 50 Other OME 14%
40 Nuclear 6% 45
India 12%
35 40
30 Power generation efficiency  35 China 27%
and fuel switching 5% 30
25 Other OECD 10%
End‐use fuel switching  15%
20 25
OECD Europe 7%
15 20
BLUE Map  emissions 14 Gt End‐use fuel and electricity 
15 BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt United States 11%
10 efficiency 38%
10
5 WEO 2009 450 ppm case  ETP2010 analysis  5
0 WEO 2009 450 ppm case  ETP2010 analysis 
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Low-carbon energy technology roadmaps Low-carbon energy technology roadmaps

7/5/2010 7/5/2010
© OECD/IEA 2010 © OECD/IEA 2010

Solar  Will Play a Key Role……… IEA PV Roadmap Approach

50 16% • 27 stakeholders + 13 reviewers engaged

PWh

25% Other
45
Solar • From government, industry, utilities, finance, research
40
Wind
35 Biomass+CCS • Consistent with ETP 2010 model results to set a vision
Biomass and waste
30
Hydro
gy g p y p
for the technology’s long‐term deployment up to 2050
25
Nuclear
20 Natural gas+CCS
– ETP Blue Map and Variants – incl. High‐RE Scenario
15 Natural gas
Oil
• Set of existing PV roadmaps and strategies taken into 
10

5
Coal+CCS account
Coal
0 • EU, US, Japan, Australia, China, India
2007 Baseline 2050 BLUE Map  BLUE High  BLUE High Ren 
2050 Nuclear 2050 2050
• Support by PVPS Implementing Agreement

Low-carbon energy technology roadmaps Low-carbon energy technology roadmaps

7/5/2010
© OECD/IEA 2010 © OECD/IEA 2010

1
 7/5/2010

The market is growing and diversifying…… Solar PV Targets

………and 
costs are 
reducing 
d i
sharply….

40% annual average growth rate.  “learning rate” – 15‐22%

Over 7 GW added in 2010; need to 
If sound policies are put in place, 
reach 200 GW by 2020 PV can provide 5% of global electricity generation in 2030, 11% in 2050

Low-carbon energy technology roadmaps Low-carbon energy technology roadmaps

© OECD/IEA 2010 © OECD/IEA 2010

PV Deployment and 
Selected Key Actions 2010‐2020
Competitiveness levels
Market growth – 17% to 2020, then 11%.  Learning rate: 18% • Design and apply effective incentive schemes
– Consistent with long‐term targets and policies
– Decreasing over time in order to foster innovation and technological 
improvement 
• Identify appropriate financing mechanisms and business models, 
Retail electricity prices
including for off‐grid applications
• Implement efficient administrative procedures
• Increase R&D efforts to accelerate deployment and cost 
reductions, while supporting longer‐term breakthroughs
• Develop building codes and standards for PV products 
• Enhance education and training programmes

Low-carbon energy technology roadmaps Low-carbon energy technology roadmaps

© OECD/IEA 2010 © OECD/IEA 2010

Deploying Renewables in Southeast 
Deploying Renewables
Asia:
Trends and potentials
Trends and potentials

Tom Kerr Thank you!
adam.brown@iea.org

Asia-Pacific Dialogue on Clean Energy Governance and www.iea.org/roadmaps

Regulation
Manila, 21‐22 June 2010
© OECD/IEA 2009 

© OECD/IEA - 2010 Low-carbon energy technology roadmaps Low-carbon energy technology roadmaps
© OECD/IEA 2010 © OECD/IEA 2010