Future Powertrains: Electric Vehicle Options and

Objectives Change Radically

Some research from the IDTechEx report, Future
Powertrains 2017-2027

By Dr Peter Harrop
IDTechEx p.harrop@idtechex.com
www.idtechex.com

For overview see IDTechEx report, Electric Vehicles 2017-2037: Forecasts, Analysis and Opportunities

Copyright 2015 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com

About IDTechEx snapshot view
IDTechEx provides Emerging Technology
insight, intelligence and networking,
helping clients with their critical strategic
business decisions.

Global and timely

analysis through:

Subscriptions
Research Reports
Custom Consulting Projects
Global Events
Free Web Journals--

Since 1999 we have served

clients in 80 countries from our
bases in the US, UK, Germany,
Korea and Japan

Copyright 2015 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com

 IDTechEx Research

Future Powertrains 2017-2027

Land vehicle powertrain design, component trends,
markets, 48V MH, strong hybrid, pure electric, EIV

Unique and up-to-date of report based on the very latest information.

New roadmap for technology and market developments to 2036.

Analysis of factors influencing powertrain design.

Key component advances including extreme downsizing, multiple energy

harvesting/regeneration and structural energy storage.

Ten year forecasts for 46 categories of electric vehicle.

IDTechEx.com/PowerTrains
Updates from leading vehicle, system manufacturers and developers.

Copyright 2015 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com

Electric vehicle powertrain evolution: typical figures expected for cars
Energy Independent Vehicle EIV
Full hybrid is propulsion by electric THE END GAME
Mild hybrid motor at low speed with engine off. is propelled entirely by electricity created on-board
means electric from wind (when parked), sun, heat etc.
Micro hybrid Full regenerative braking. Some plug It may or may not have energy storage
torque assist in for extra electricity/ electric range.
means permits smaller
conventional engine
vehicle with Full
system that regenerative
switches off Not plug-in
braking Plug-in Pure Electric Vehicle to EIV PEV
the engine is propelled entirely by electric motors. No fuelled engine on-board
whenever it
stops. Some
regenerative
braking

50-75%
cheaper than Powertrain graphics by Continental
full hybrid. 20-
30kW versions
Copyright 2015 IDTechEx | will be possible
www.IDTechEx.com
The saga of the future of automobile industry
ICE, -Hybrid,
Plug in hybrid Hybrid EVs 48V mild-Hybrid
Pure EVs

Big U turn on
pure electric in
US 2016-7

Asia
Many others not
serious enough
about pure
electric
Europe

Copyright 2015 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com

 Peak in car sales k goodbye to many things..
Cars have exceptionally low utilisation so they are threatened by autonomy because that can lead to
much higher utilisation as taxis and buses. Energy
Units K car market globally 2050
Peak independent 80% of people live in cities
Peak vehicles
Peak oil become big that ban private cars whether
Peak
ICE
car business autonomous or not
lead acid fuels
Peak
diesel battery

One autonomous taxi-bus

replaces 20 cars? Peak electric
car 2037?
CONVENTIONAL
ICE
Pure electric increasingly has lowest total cost of ownership

Killer blow: pure electric has lowest cost up front 2035 Last ICE car made if global
warming plan met CAT the
consultancy retained by
governments

Copyright 2015 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com

 New end game: Energy Independent Vehicles EIV no, not
always feeble, not always sun, sometimes energy positive!
Range is often longer than
HYBRIDS TREND TO PURE ELECTRIC
for a conventional car

Plug in
hybrid
Mild ICE Plug in
with fuel
hybrid ICE
cell or
with little hybrid
gas
or no with
turbine
electric limited
range
range electric
extender
range
and long Pure Pure
electric electric
range
electric Energy
long contactless
range positive EIV
fast top up
charging charging eg
Pure Pure
dynamic
Pure electric electric inductive
electric medium medium
short range range
range slow fast
charging charging

PURE ELECTRIC TRENDS TO NON STOP CHARGE

Copyright 2015 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com

EIV operational choices

Can perform task only when
energy available
No need for energy storage.
Example, agricultural
inspection robot, tourist bus
Occasional use but
including when energy not
available. Plenty of charging
while not in use
Modest energy storage
Example: microcar needed
for only 40km/day
Full time use
Major energy storage
needed
Example, solar plane
up for five years

Electric
Energy
Independent
Less energy storage needed if several
Vehicle energy sources are used for electricity
Example: solar car that erects wind
turbine when parked

Less energy storage needed if

mechanical energy harvesting/use is
also employed
Example, solar boat with sails

Copyright 2015 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com

 Key EIV technologies benefit what goes before

1. External energy harvesting: harvesting ambient energy for traction using on-
board equipment.
2. Extreme powertrain efficiency, notably from more efficient electrical and
electronic parts, fewer mechanical parts and new regenerative (internal) energy
harvesting. Examples 97% efficient electric motors, twin motors, tire and
suspension power
3. Extreme lightweighting including structural electronics and lizard vehicles with no
energy storage
4. Extreme aerodynamics/ hydrodynamics
5. Next generation energy storage LiS battery, Li-ion capacitor, supercapacitor
. or no energy storage at all

Copyright 2015 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com

Copyright 2015 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com
Extreme lightweighting
1. Bird bone shown right leads to
biomimetic 3D printed electronics,
1. Structural electronics eg in-mold, metamaterial
honeycomb, solid state batteries maybe (even
they swell and shrink) and supercapacitors
easily shaped.

Components will no longer be

passengers in the structure of a
vehicle
Jaguar Land Rover 2017

Copyright 2015 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com

Kayoola bus Uganda
Photovoltaic roof gives 15 km range despite heavy steel body for bad roads

Copyright 2015 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com

 EIV cars demonstrated 2016, on sale 2020
GaAs

80 km/day
The company says the current solar energy conversion rate of its high-
end cells is 31.6%.
This is expected to go up to 38% in 2020 and 42% in 2025
Examples of Energy Positive EIVs

Copyright 2015 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com

Energy Observer wind and sun
 IFEVS restaurant van goes anywhere without
plugging in and cooks pasta without using battery.
HOT POWERTRAIN TOPIC: IMPROVED WIND POWER
FOR VEHICLES

Mini wind turbines could soon co-power Toyotas electric

vehicles a patent showed in mid 2017. The system
comprises of wind turbine, an air inlet, air channels, an air
outlet and a generator that converts the kinetic energy to
electric power to be stored in the battery. The mini rotors,
could generate enough energy to power integral and
auxiliary systems such as air conditioning, says the
company.

Copyright 2015 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com

Stella Lux passenger car Netherlands donates to the grid
Name: Stella Lux
Designer/ manufacturer: Solar Team Eindhoven (STE) student team
from Eindhoven University of Technology (TU/e)
Status: One made, others being prepared for races
External energy harvesting: scSi Photovoltaics
Extreme powertrain efficiency: Yes, in-wheel high efficiency motors
Extreme lightweighting: Yes. Carbon, aluminium
Extreme aerodynamics/ hydrodynamics/streamlining: Yes: special
shape
Next generation energy storage: na
Perpetual speed in sun 72 kph
Comment: Launched 2.7.15 Stella Lux can reach a range of 1,000 km
on a sunny day in the Netherlands. On balance Stella Lux generates
more energy than it uses, which makes it energy-positive. Excess
energy can be returned to the power grid, helping to deal with societal
problems relating to the use of energy.

Copyright 2015 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com

China Rainbow solar plane up for weeks

Copyright 2015 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com

Google Makani 600 kW drone

See IDTechEx report,

Airborne Wind Energy
AWE 2017-2027

IDTechEx.com/AWE

Copyright 2015 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com

Energy positive large buses will come
.
Such a machine could be powering farm robots, advancing armies or ships and
providing surveillance and long range communications and working power tools at
destinations. It could heat many houses and cope with disaster sites.
For more see the IDTechEx report, Airborne Wind Energy 2017-2027.
Drone shown is Kitemill Norway.
First orders to be delivered 2018 for 30kW units acting without solar. It can rise through still air
to up to 1000 meters where winds are 4X stronger and more consistent and then act as a kite
making electricity by pulling a tether to a generator on the vehicle below.

Remote power and microgrid

market = $31 billion 2028
Diesel gensets to be replaced =
600GW.

Copyright 2015 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com

Copyright 2015 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com
Copyright 2015 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com
 Consulting and advisory services
Learn how we can help your business grow

Copyright 2015 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com

 Supporting your strategic business decisions
on emerging technologies

Dr Peter Harrop
p.harrop@IDTechEx.com
Free daily commentary on EVs land water air and their technology
www.ElectricVehiclesResearch.com

Offices: USA: +1 617 577 7890 Germany: +49 3991 669 3591 Korea: +82 31 263 7890
UK: +44 (0)1223 812 300 Japan: +81 90 1704 1184
www.IDTechEx.com

Copyright 2015 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com