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BY LORRAINE J. DASTON
COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY
NEW YORK, NEW YORK 10027
SUMMARIES
Throughout the 18th century, the notion of proba-
bilistic expectation was a matter of controversy among
mathematicians. Despite its seminal role in the ear-
liest formulations of mathematical probability, such
as that of Huygens, expectation did not remain a fixed
concept but underwent several striking shifts in defi-
nition. This paper argues that the conception of ex-
pectation was altered by mathematicians in a deliberate
effort to capture the salient aspects of rational de-
cision making. As the notion of rationality succes-
sively took on legal, economic, and then psychological
overtones, the definition of probabilistic expectation
followed suit.
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374
RM7 Probabilistic Expectation and Rationality 235
Y = xl(a+x), y = utility,
x = gain,
a = original fortune.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Barbara Buck, Peter Buck, Joan Richards, and Barbara Rosen-
crantz offered helpful comments on earlier drafts of this paper.
Thomas Drucker generously made his unpublished translation of
Nicholas Bernoulli's De usu artis conjectandi in jure available
to me. Erwin Hierbert, to whom this paper is dedicated, en-
aouraged, questioned, clarified, and criticized in just the
right proportions.
NOTES
1. Domat was among the foremost French jurists of his time,
and a close friend of Pascal. Like other members of the natural
law school, Domat endorsed probabilistic standards of legal proof
[Foirers 1965, 169-1921.
2. For a detailed account of this philosophical program and
its impact on natural philosophy, see: Baker [1975, Part 31,
Shapiro 11969, 727-7661, and Waldman [1959, 299-3161.
3. Nicholas Bernoulli had also proposed the problem to Cramer,
who had responded in a 1728 letter (quoted by Daniel Bernoulli)
with a similar analysis. Although Cramer also distinguished be-
tween wealth and utility, he set utility proportional to the
square root of monetary value.
4. In an unpublished manuscript [Condorcet Bibliothsque
de 1'Institut MS 875, ff. 93-941, Condorcet made use of d'Alem-
bert's distinction between "physical" and "metaphysical" possi-
bilities to derive three mutually contradictory results for a
problem of the St. Petersburg type.
5. These Comptes g.h&raux de l'administration de la justice
were first published in 1825, and greatly influenced the work of
Poisson and Quetelet.
258 Lorraine J. Daston HM7
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