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From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.

edu>
Senttime: 08/01/201608:50:52AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:"DonaldTRUMPgivesquestionableexplanationofeventsinUKRAINE,"nytimes.com,8/1

From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Monday,August01,20168:50AM
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:"DonaldTRUMPgivesquestionableexplanationofeventsinUKRAINE,"nytimes.com,8/1

InaninterviewwithGeorgeStephanopoulosontheABCNewsprogramThisWeek,Mr.Trumpsaid
thatifhewerepresident,PresidentVladimirPutinofRussiawouldnotsendhisforcesintoUkraine.
HethenbackpedaledwhenMr.StephanopoulospointedoutthatRussiantroopshadbeentherefor
nearlytwoyears.

And:S.V.Dale,TrumpPUSHEDforGOPtochangeUkraineposition,nowclaimshedidnt:Thepro
RussiachangewastheonlyplatformtweaktheTrumpcampcaredabout,sourcessay,
huggingtonpost.com,7/31

And:Detailed8pageportraitofTRUMPscampaignmanager:HowPaulMANAFORTwieldedpower
inUkrainebeforeadvisingDonaldTrump,nytimes.com,7/31

And:AnintensivelookatManafortscampaignteam,someofthemformeraides[e.g.Frank
MERMOUD]inthecampaigntopropupViktorYANUKOVYCH:DonaldTrumpandRussia:awebthat
growsmoretangledallthetime,theguardian.com,7/30

And:[Hillary]CLINTON:RussianIntelhackedtheDNC,thedailybeast.com,7/31

And:MichaelWEISS,JulianASSANGE,DonaldTrump,andVladimirPUTIN:ATroikaforourinsane
era,thedailybest.com,8/111pagearticle

Inabizarremindmeldthatcouldonlyhappentoday,theWikiLeaksfounderisrefusingtosay
whetherhegotthehackedDNCemailsfromRussia,andTrumpisdefendingRussia.

And:GorgeF.WILL,HowentangledwithRussiaisTrump,washingtonpost.com,7/29oped

And:InvestigativepieceonwhythemoderateMikhailZURABOVwasreplacedbyhardlinerMikhail
BABICHasRussiasambassadortoUKRAINE:
http://www.gazeta.ru/politics/2016/07/29_a_9719417.shtml

And:RussiaseconomystillFALLINGafterhittingrockbottomReport[byMoscowsHigherSchool
ofEconomics],themoscowtimes.com,8/1

From: ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/26/201606:41:43PM
To: LindaNemec<lindanemec@gmail.com>RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: NYTimes:SpyAgencyConsensusGrowsThatRussiaHackedD.N.C.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/27/us/politics/spy-agency-consensus-grows-that-russia-hacked-dnc.ht
ml?smid=nytcore-iphone-share&smprod=nytcore-iphoneAmericanintelligenceagenciescautionedthatth
eyareuncertainwhetherthebreachwasanefforttomanipulatethe2016presidentialelection.

SentfrommyiPhone
From: DavidKramer<djkramerwdc@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/30/201608:00:39AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:impassionedneoconcrusader(akaDavidKramer)

Icanretirenow!

SentfrommyiPhone

OnJul30,2016,at9:02AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-skeptics/the-new-mccarthys-attack-trump-russia-17188

TheNewMcCarthysAttackTrumpon
Russia
<mccarthy.jpg>

DonaldTrumpbringsmanydefectstohisnewroleastheGOPstandard-bearer.Suchdefectshaveled
Trumpsopponentstomakeallegationsthatrangefromhystericaltosleazy.Intheformercategoryare
thegrowingnumberofspeechesandarticlesthatimply(andinsomecasesoutrightassert)thatTrumpis
aclosetNazi.InthelattercategoryaretheevenmorerapidlymountingallegationsthatheisaRussian
sycophant,ifnotaRussianagent.ThatsmearconstitutesanewMcCarthyism.Anditisespeciallyironic
thatliberalDemocrats,theprincipalvictimsoftheoriginalMcCarthyismduringtheearlyColdWar,are
themainperpetratorsthistime.

ThethemeofTrumpasaRussianagent(aSiberiancandidate)receivedamajorboostfollowinghis
commentsaboutthemassivehackingoftheDemocraticNationalCommitteese-mails.Trumpopined
thatiftheRussianswereengagedinsuchsystematiccyberespionage,itreflectedalackofrespectfor
thecurrentpoliticalleadershipoftheUnitedStates.ThatisafamiliarGOPtrope,andanespecially
unfaironeinthiscase.Nationswithgoodcyberespionagecapabilitiesspyonalltargetstheydeem
relevant,andhavedonesoformanyyears.TheUnitedStateshasevenbeencaughtspyingonclose
alliessuchasGermany.

Trumpsstatementmighthavepassedwithminimalnotice,buthethenaddedsarcasticallythatifthe
Russianshaddoneso,hehopedthattheyhadHillaryClintonsthirtythousandmissinge-mails.His
criticsimmediatelyspunthatcommenttosuggestthathewasurgingRussiatoundermineAmericas
security.Thatisapreposterousinterpretation.IfanyoneputU.S.securityatrisk,itwasClinton,who
hadusedaprivatee-mailserverwithouttherobustsecurityfeaturesofgovernmentservers.Andsince
shehasalreadytestifiedthatthereisnothinginthosemissinge-mailsofasensitivenature,howcould
RussiaspossessionofsuchworthlessitemsdamageAmericassecurity?

NowtheWashingtonPostreportsthattwodozenGOPforeign-policyhawkshaveinditedaletterto
congressionalleadersdemandinganinvestigationintothehackingofDNCemails.Theysaythatthisis
notapartisanissuebutanassaultontheintegrityoftheentireAmericanpoliticalprocess.Itistrue
thatthesignershavedifferentreasonsforwritingCongress.SomelikeRet.Gen.MichaelHaydenhave
alongstandingconcernaboutcyberattacksfromabroad.Buttheanimatingspiritbehindtheletteris
DavidKramer,animpassionedneoconcrusader.AnothersigneristheprominentneoconElliott
Abrams.Theoverallimpressionleftbehindbytheletteristhatitpreciselywhatthesignersallegeitisnot
adefactoattempttodamagetheTrumpcampaign.ThefactisthattheFBIisalreadyinvestigatingthe
DNCemailhack.Thereisnocogentreasonforacongressionalinvestigation,otherthananattemptto
politicizetheevent.

ThebarrageagainstTrumpforthatcommentisjustpartofalargeroffensive.Trumphasangered
advocatesofanewColdWaragainstRussiaonnumerousoccasions.Hehasstatedthathebelieveshis
administrationcouldgetalongwellwithVladimirPutin.HequestionedNATOsexpansiontoRussias
doorstepandhintedthatthealliancesmilitarymaneuversinEasternEuropemightbeneedlessly
provocative.HehasstatedthattheEuropeancountries,ratherthantheUnitedStates,shoulddealwith
anyproblemstheymighthaveregardingRussiasactionsinUkraine.Thoseandothercommentshave
causedcriticstobrandTrumpasaPutinstooge.

Pages
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 08/05/201611:18:43PM
To: JohnWilliams<willijp1@yahoo.com>
Subject: 3reasonsRussiasVladimirPutinmightwanttointerfereintheUSpresidentialelections-VoxFIONA

http://www.vox.com/2016/7/27/12304448/putin-elections-dnc-hack

3reasonsRussiasVladimirPutinmightwantto
interfereintheUSpresidentialelections
TheClintoncampaign,amongothers,hasaccusedVladimirPutinofencouragingRussian
intelligencetohacktheDemocraticNationalCommittee(DNC)filesandhandoverthousandsof
emailstoWikiLeaksaspartofabroaderschemetogetDonaldTrumpelectedpresident.

ButwhywouldPutinevenwanttoinfluencetheUSpresidentialelection?Thereareseveral
reasonsRussiamightwantstiruptroubleinanalreadycontentiouscampaign.Russianviewsof
theUnitedStatesareatalowpointPutinbelievestheUSplaysitsownnefariousgamesin
RussianpoliticsandMoscowwouldliketoundermineUSinternationalcredibilitybyhighlighting
thedeficienciesinAmericanpartypolitics.

PutinthinkstheUSalreadydidittohimfirst

AsfarasPutinandhisinnercircleareconcerned,itwastheUnitedStatesthatmovedfirstto
meddleinRussianpoliticswhenPutindecidedtoreturnforathirdterm.In2011-12,Russian
demonstratorstooktothestreetstoprotestelectoralviolationsintheparliamentaryelectionsand
thelackofalternativecandidatestoPutininthepresidentialelection.Putinandhisinnercircle
believedtheUSwastoblame.Putinevenassertedthatthen-SecretaryofStateHillaryClinton
hadeitherincitedordirectlyfinancedthedemonstrations.

InPutinsmindset,theWestalwaystriestobringRussiadown.Nextyearwillbethe100th
anniversaryoftheRussianRevolution,andthisyearmarksthe25thanniversaryofthe
dissolutionoftheSovietUnion.IntheRussianworldview,firstGermanyinWorldWarIandthen
theUnitedStatesintheColdWartookadvantageofdomesticdivisionsandvulnerabilitiesandthe
Russianstatecollapsedtwiceinonecentury.

SooneofPutinsprimaryobjectivesistoforceWesternleaderstobackoffinordertomakesure
thisdoesnthappenagain.PutinwantstheUnitedStatesandotherWesterngovernmentstostop
funding,aspartoftheirforeignpolicies,organizationsthatpromotepoliticalandeconomic
transformationsinRussia.HealsowantstoblockUSofficialsfrommeetingwithopposition
figuresandparties.FromPutinsperspective,democracypromotionisjustacoverforregime
change.

PutinthinksandactslikeaKGBoperative

BeforehewastheleaderofRussia,VladimirPutinwasanofficerintheKGB,theSoviet-era
secretintelligenceservice,andthatexperiencecontinuestoshapehisviewsandactions.Putin
approacheshisdealingswiththeUnitedStateswiththelogicofacovertoperative,steepedin
plotsandconspiracies.Healsousesanintelligenceoperativestools.Hespreparedtofightdirty,
andhereliesontheelementoftacticalsurprisetoensuremaximumeffect.
Putinhastwofeaturesthatdistinguishhimfromotherworldleaders.Asheputsit,heknowshow
toworkwithpeopleandworkwithinformation.IntheKGB,Putinlearnedhowtoprobe
peoplesvulnerabilities,uncovertheirsecrets,andusecompromisinginformationagainstthem.In
otherwords,blackmailandintimidationarepartofhisstockintrade.

Inhisview,otherworldleadersareessentiallytargets.Hegathersinformationandcarefully
tailorshisapproachtoeachleadertoseehowhecanoutmaneuverthem.Inoneinfamousand
blatantepisode,PutinplayedonGermanChancellorAngelaMerkelsfearofdogstoputheredge
duringaone-on-onemeetingathisdacha.HeallowedhisblackLabradortosniffaroundandlie
atherfeet.Onnumerousotheroccasions,PutinhassignaledtovisitingWesternofficialsthathe
knowspersonalinformationfromtheiroldKGBfiles.

Putinalsoknowshowtoplaythemedia.Russiaalreadyhasalongtraditionofpropagandaand
informationwarfare,butPutinisamastermanipulator.Earlyinhispresidency,hedescribedthe
pressasaninstrumentthathewoulddeployintheserviceofthestate.TheKremlinhastrained
itsownbloggerstocreatecontentontheinternet.Ithashiredpublicrelationsfirmstoimproveits
mediastrategy.Kremlin-sponsoredfocusgroupshavehelpedhonemessaging.Asliesarepartof
thecoinoftheintelligenceoperativeandfactsarefungible,therehavebeenfewconstraintson
creativecontent.

TheRussianmediamachinefunctionsasahugepsychologicaloperation,akindofmassivepro-
PutinSuperPAC.Athome,itralliestheRussianpublicaroundtheflagbypublicizingthedamage
Russiasenemiesaretryingtoinflict.Abroad,itfocusesonscandalsthatunderscorethehubris,
hypocrisy,andfailingsofWesternpoliticalsystems.

TheDNCfilesmaynothavebeengiventoWikiLeaksbyRussianintelligence,buttheselective
releaseofemailcaches,atajuncturewhentheyarelikelytogainthegreatestinternationalmedia
attentionandhavethemostnegativepoliticalimpactintheUnitedStates,doeshavethe
hallmarksofacarefullyconsideredoperation.ForVladimirPutin,whoseeshimselfaslockedina
struggleforinfluencewiththeUnitedStates,thiswouldallbefairgame.

PutinwantsaweakenedUSpresidency

ThereismuchspeculationthatPutinmayseeDonaldTrumpassomeonehecandobusiness
with,andthathehasagrudgeagainstHillaryClinton.TrumpspraiseofPutinasastrong
leaderisanotablebreakwiththegeneraltrendofUSpoliticiansandopinionleaderscastigating
PutinandcriticizingRussia,andPutinhasmadeseeminglycomplimentarycommentsabout
Trumpinreturn.

Incontrast,inpublicandprivate,PutinandotherRussianofficialshavemadeitclearthatthey
haveanegativeopinionofClinton.Ina2014interviewwithFrenchtelevision,forexample,
PutinlambastedClintonforremarksshehadmadeabouthim,notingthatitwasbetternotto
arguewithwomenandthatClintonwasnevertoogracefulinherstatements.

Whateverhispersonalpreferences,though,Putincannotreasonablyexpecttoinfluencethe
outcomeoftheUSpresidentialelection.Thebesthecanhopeforistoreducetheabilityof
whoevercomesintotheOvalOfficetopursuepoliciesthataredetrimentaltoPutinsandRussias
interests.

Rightnow,PutinwantstheUStoremovesanctionsimposedonRussiaafteritsannexationof
CrimeainMarch2014.Perhapsevenmoreimportantly,Russiahasparliamentaryelectionsthis
September,andpresidentialelectionsagainin2018,whenPutinisexpectedtorunforafourth
term.TheKremlindoesnotwantarepeatoftheprotestsof2011-12,andcertainlyno
pronouncementsfromtheUSaboutwhethertheelectionsarefreeandfairorwhetherPutinhasa
genuinepopularmandateforhisnextpresidency.
Againstthisbackdrop,theinformationfromtheDNCfilesunderscoresfortheRussianpublic,
andtheoutsideworld,thatUSpartypoliticsisjustasdirtyasinRussiaoranywhereelse.The
USlooksalotlesscredibleasthemoralauthorityontheconductofelections.

IrrespectiveofwhetherDonaldTrumporHillaryClintoniselected,fromMoscowsperspective,
attheendofthisruinouspoliticalcampaign,thenewUSpresidentwilllookaswoundedasPutin
didwhenhetookofficeagainin2012.AUSpresidentwhoiselectedamidcontroversyand
recrimination,reviledbyalargesegmentoftheelectorate,andmiredindomesticcriseswillbe
hard-pressedtoforgeacoherentforeignpolicyandchallengeRussia.

FionaHillisaseniorfellowanddirectoroftheCenterontheUnitedStatesandEuropeatthe
BrookingsInstitution.AformerUSnationalintelligenceofficerforRussiaandEurasia,sheis
co-authorofMr.Putin:OperativeintheKremlin.
From: KevinRothrock<krothrock@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/27/201606:49:29AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: WhitmorethrowsdownonFacebook

KevinJ.Rothrock
16hrs

"Imaginethatyourteenagechildhasbuiltabombandhasjustsetitoffin
yourhouse.Thehouseisfallingdownallaroundyouandyouareblaming
theneighborskid,whothrewapebbleatyourwindow.Thatswhatthe
recentPutinfixationislikeawaytoevadethefactthatTrumpisa
thoroughlyAmericancreationthatposesanexistentialthreattoAmerican
democracy."
MashaGessennailsit.

TheTrump-PutinFallacy
Trumpisnotaforeignagent,controlledbyPutin.HeisathoroughlyAmerican
creationthatposesanexistentialthreattoAmericandemocracy.NowthatTrump
hasbecometheRepublicannomineeandhaspulledevenorevenslightlyahead
of
NYBOOKS.COM | BYMASHAGESSEN

Like ShowmorereactionsComment Share

17 DenisVolkov,SeanGuilloryand15others

1share 5Comments

SeanGuilloryWowIhaven'tagreedwithherinalongtime.Timesarereally
crazy.
UnlikeReply 2 13hrs

MikhailFaynshrayberTwobaldfellows
LikeReply12hrs

BrianWhitmoreExceptthatnobodyisclaimingthatTrumpisPutin'screation.
That'saredherring.PutinisclearlyexploitingTrump'sappearance,though.
JustasheisexploitingLePen,Brexit,themigrantcrisis,xenophobiain
Europe.ToframethedebatearoundwhetherPutincreatedthesethingsis
ridiculousandmissesthepoint.
LikeReply 2 7hrs
SeanGuilloryWhenvariouspunditsrepeatedlyrefertosomeoneas
Manchuriancandidatethat'sprettymuchwhatthey'resaying.
LikeReply1hr

BrianWhitmoreIhaven'theardanybodyserioussayPutincreatedtheTrump
phenomenon.EverybodyunderstandsthatitistheproductofAmerican(and
morespecificallyRepublican)politics.Toargueagainstthisistoargue
againstastrawman.Putinis,however,clearlyexploitingthesituationanyway
hecan--justashehasbeendoinginsimilarsituationsinEuropeforyears.
Todenythatisdelusional.
LikeReply22mins

KevinJ.RothrockNotcreated,butthatPutinwillberesponsiblefor
Trump'spossiblevictory.Thisisdelusional,I'dargue,andit
scapegoatsaforeignadversaryfortheUnitedStates'owndisturbing
politicaldevelopments.CallingTrumpaManchurianorSiberian
candidatedoesn'tjustexaggeratePutin'sinfluenceonUSpoliticsit
ignoreswhatactuallymotivatesAmericanvotersandshiftsblame
irresponsibly.IthinkthesamethingcanbesaidabouttheKremlin's
supportforfringemovementsinEurope,thoughI'mawareofcourse
thatpeopledisagreehere.AtleastclaimsthatPutinengineeredBrexit
seemtohavebeenlaughedoutoftheroomdeservedly.

AsforRussia's"clearexploitation"oftheUSrace:(1)Iseeno
evidencethatRussiahasmanagedtomanipulateanything
significantly(thebadvibeswiththeBernieBrospredatetheDNCleak,
andtheleakitselfwasn'tallthatdamning)and(2)Iagreewith
Gessen,anddisagreewithwhatseemstobethecurrentWashington
consensus,thataTrumppresidencyishardlyappealingtoPutin,
giventhatDonaldTrumpishighlyunpredictable,despitehiscampaign
manager'sbusinessdealingswithanoldKremlinstoogeandhisties
toRT.
LikeReply 1 6mins

Writeareply...

Writeacomment...
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 08/02/201610:12:45PM
To: kramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Subject: Re:TheKremlin'sAdvantage|ForeignAffairs(rumeronthehack)

Befair:

http://carnegieendowment.org/2015/07/20/russia-different-kind-of-threat/idml

OnAug2,2016,at4:14PM,DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>wrote:

Genewrotethis?Wow,quiteachange,especiallyRecognizingthenatureofthethreatthatRussia
presentsisthefirststeptowarddealingwithit.

From:RobertOtto[mailto:robertotto25@gmail.com]
Sent:Tuesday,August02,20163:11PM
To:DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Subject:TheKremlin'sAdvantage|ForeignAffairs(rumeronthehack)

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2016-08-02/kremlins-advantage

TheKremlin'sAdvantage
ThehackoftheU.S.DemocraticNationalCommitteeemails,nowwidelyattributed
toRussianintelligence,hassetoffapoliticalearthquakeintheUnitedStates.The
brazennessoftheattack,thecrudeattempttointerveneinaU.S.presidentialelection,
andtheequallybald-faceddenialinthefaceofmountingevidenceofRussian
governmentcomplicityhavepromptedahostofquestionsthatreallyamounttojust
one:How?Althoughafullysatisfactoryanswermayneverbefound,itisnottooearly
todrawsomeconclusionsfromtheepisodeconclusionsthatshouldinformthe
generaldiscourseaboutRussia,aswellasaboutthechallengethatRussiawillpresent
tothenextU.S.administration,regardlessofwhoiselectedinNovember.
Thoseexperts(includingthiswriter),who,outofanabundanceofcaution,initially
grappledwiththenewsoftheDNCbreak-inbyinvokingtheinherentdifficultyof
investigatingcybercrimes,nowhavethegrowingbodyoffactandanalysispointingto
Russiasroleinthehack.InkeepingwithNationalIntelligenceDirectorJames
Clappersrecentremarksonthissubject,theassumptionshouldbethatRussiawas
behindthebreak-in.Atthispoint,todenyitwouldsimplybemisleadingthepublic.
WhydidtheRussiangovernmentdoit?Becauseitcould.Knowledgeispower.
Havingtheinsidescooponanadversaryisasourceofleveragethatistoogoodto
passup.AndcollectingsuchintelligenceiswhattheRussianintelligenceserviceshave
alongrecordofdoingwithsomeskillandsuccess.
AndwhydidthehackersreleasethedatastolenfromtheDNC?Didtheyreallyintend
toundermineDemocraticpresidentialcandidateHillaryClintonandtohelptheir
presumedfavorite,theRepublicanDonaldTrump?Itwouldseemnaveordelusional
toexpectthattheleakwouldaffectthevoteinacountryofwellover300millionina
campaignwithsomanyresourcesbeingexpendedbysomanyinterests.Anyanalysis
oftheRussiangovernmentsintentionsrequiresagreatdealofspeculation.Butsome
thingsareknown.
Russiangovernmentandstate-sponsoredagentshaveintervenedinothercountries
electionsanddomesticpolitics.TheyhavedonesoinFrance,theNetherlands,
Germany,andItaly,justtonamesomeU.S.allies.ForRussiasneighborsUkraine,
theBalticstates,andMoldovaMoscowsheavyhandintheirdomesticpoliticsisa
constantworry.JustbecausetheUnitedStatesisbigandpowerfuldoesntmeanthat
itsdomesticpoliticsisnecessarilyofflimitstoRussianintelligence.Infact,theUnited
Statespositionintheworldastheonlytrulyglobalpowermakesitevenmoreofa
targetforRussianintelligence.
Kremlinoperativesprobablyrememberthatthe2000U.S.presidentialelectionwas
determinedbyafewhangingchads.The2016electionmaywellbedecidedbya
smallnumberofdisgruntledsupportersofformerDemocraticcontenderBernie
Sanders,asthesesupportersmaymakethedecisiontostayhome,insteadofvoting
forClinton.Inthatsense,thereleaseofstolenDNCdocumentsmaybejustthething
totipthescalesagainsther.
ThiswarrantsahardlookatwhetherTrumpisRussianPresidentVladimirPutins
favoredchoice.Therecordisremarkable:thepublicexchangeofpleasantriesbetween
TrumpandPutintheRussianmoneyreportedlyinvestedinTrumpsprojectshis
skeptical,transactionalapproachtoNATOhishintingatpossiblerecognitionof
CrimeaasRussianterritoryandliftingofthesanctionsonRussiaandhismostrecent
claimthatPutinisnotgoingtogointoUkraine.Atthesametime,Putinisonthe
recordaccusingClintonoffomentingunrestinRussia.AndClintonsdislikeofthe
RussianpresidentbeforetheDNChackwasequallywelldocumentedand
undoubtedlyhasgrownmoreintensesincethen.
Noneofthisshouldcomeasasurprise,justasnobodywassurprisedwhentheNorth
KoreangovernmenthackedintoSonyPicturescomputers.Theonlyshocktherewas
thetechnicalexpertisedemonstratedbytheparanoidhermitkingdom.AndRussian
rulersarejustasparanoidabouttheWesttheUnitedStates,inparticularandits
attemptstoencircleRussia,destabilizeitathome,andmarginalizeitontheworld
stage.
MuchhasbeenwrittenaboutRussianhybridwarfareatermthatcoversawide
rangeofactivities,includingcovertoperations,theuseofirregularsandcriminal
elements,cyberoperations,informationanddisinformationcampaigns,andsoon.
RussiahaspracticedhybridwarfarewithvaryingdegreesofsuccessinCrimea,in
easternUkraine,intheBalticstates,andinSyria.
LessnotedisthatRussiansecurityservicesseeRussiaasbeingevenmoreavictimof
hybridwarfarethananaggressor.U.S.supportfordemocracyinandaroundRussiais
athreattotheKremlin.ThereleaseofthePanamaPapers,whichrevealed
informationaboutthehiddenwealthandpresumedcorruptactivitiesoftherulingelite,
hasbeenportrayedbytheKremlinasaneffortinWashingtontodiscredititand
destabilizeRussia.Bythesametoken,theOlympicdopingscandalisalsoseenasa
WesternplotagainstRussia.U.S.-EUeconomicsanctionsagainstRussiathatwereput
inplaceinthewakeofRussiasinvasionofUkrainearedescribedasacoverforthe
realgoaltoweakenandpromoteregimechangeinRussia.
IntheeyesofRussianelites,Westernaggressionmustbemetwitharesponse.
HackingintoDNCcomputersandreleasinginformationontheDemocratsfundraising
practicesissimplypaybackforWesternmediareportsaboutelitecorruptioninRussia.
IthelpsboosttheRussiannarrativethatmoneyandpoliticsgohandinhand
everywhereandthatRussiaisnodifferentfromtheUnitedStatesorotherWestern
countrieswhosegovernmentsarecriticalofRussia.
Gettingcaughtred-handedlikelywontevenhurtPutinsstandingathome.The
Russianpublicislongusedtothewarofkompromatsdishingdirtonpolitical
opponentsorbusinesscompetitorswhichhasbecomeastapleofpost-Soviet
Russianpoliticsandbusiness.RussianbusinesstycoonsandtheKremlinpioneered
andfine-tunedthisformofcombatinthe1990susingmediaoutletstheyownedor
controlled.CriticismfromtheWestdoesntmeanmuchinRussiathesedaysPutins
popularapprovalratingshotuptonear90percentafterheannexedCrimea.
Andsothisisbusinessasusual.Russiaisoutgunneditsdefensespendingisa
fractionofthatoftheUnitedStates.TheRussianeconomy,too,isfarsmallerthanthe
UnitedStates.TheKremlinwillnottrytomatchtheUnitedStatesgunforgunand
tankfortank.Butitwillexploitwhatadvantagesithas.
Itwillusemilitaryforcecarefullywherethecorrelationofforcesfavorsitorwhere
itsmilitaryplannerscanassuretheirleadersthatmilitaryactionwillnotleadto
disaster.UkraineisthecaseinwhichtheKremlinhadacompellinginterest,clear
militarysuperiority,andanequallyclearassurancethattheUnitedStateswouldnot
intervene.
SyriawasanothercasewhereRussianmilitaryactionwasnecessarytoprotect
Russianinterestsandwasassociatedwithfewrisks.Itwasneededtosupportthe
falteringBasharal-AssadregimeandentailedrelativelysmallrisksbecausetheObama
administrationhadmadeclearitsreluctancetointervenemilitarilyinSyria.
Butwheretheuseofmilitaryforcecarrieswithitsignificantrisksthatarenotjustified
bycompellinginterests,otherinstrumentsfromtheRussiantoolkitareandwill
continuetobeused.Forexample,anoutrightmilitaryattackagainsttheBalticstates
wouldberiskyforRussia.ItwouldcarrywithitthethreatofadevastatingNATO
retaliationandnuclearannihilation.Therefore,theBalticswillbesubjectedtoasteady
barrageofinformationoperations,disinformation,cyberattacks,airspaceviolations,
andpokingandproddingtorattlethecountriesnervesandunderminetheirconfidence
inNATO.
Germanywillbesubjectedtodisinformation,spying,andmeddlinginitsdomestic
politics.Francesright-wingNationalFrontwillbethetargetofRussianattemptsto
gaininfluenceinFrenchpolitics.AndtheU.S.governmentanditspartiescancounton
theircomputersbeingthefocusofspecialattentionbyRussianhackers,bothfrom
intelligenceservicesandthosekeptatarmslengthtopretendtheyarenotpartofthe
Russianstate.
EventsofthepastfewyearsfromtheannexationofCrimeatotheDNChackare
notanaberrationrather,theyarepartofthesamechain.Theadversarial,hostile
relationshipwithRussiaisheretostay.Putinisheretostay,too,sobettingon
outlastinghimwouldbeunwise.Heappearsverylikelytorunandbere-electedin
2018,whichmeanshewillbeintheKremlinuntil2024throughthenextU.S.
presidentialtermandtheoneafterthat.
Someoftheneededstepsarealreadybeingtakenmilitarypreparednessmovesthat
wereproposedandadoptedatNATOsWalesandWarsawsummitsarenecessaryand
willprobablybefollowedbymoremeasurestoboostNATOsconventionaland
nucleardefenseanddeterrentcapabilities.Buttanksandgunsalonearenotenough.
Moreneedstobedoneincyber,intelligence,informationoperation,andotherforms
ofhybridwarfare,aswellasdeterrence,alongwithresilienceanddefensemeasures
againstittomeetRussiaschallenge.Morealsoisneededtobereadytoconduct
counter-offensiveoperationswhentheneedarises.Andallofthishastobedonewhile
alsolookingforwaystoavoidaccidentalescalationandmaintainsomelinesof
communicationswiththeKremlin.RecognizingthenatureofthethreatthatRussia
presentsisthefirststeptowarddealingwithit.
From: DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Senttime: 08/02/201601:14:42PM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: RE:TheKremlin'sAdvantage|ForeignAffairs(rumeronthehack)

Genewrotethis?Wow,quiteachange,especiallyRecognizingthenatureofthethreatthatRussiapresentsisthe
firststeptowarddealingwithit.

From:RobertOtto[mailto:robertotto25@gmail.com]
Sent:Tuesday,August02,20163:11PM
To:DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Subject:TheKremlin'sAdvantage|ForeignAffairs(rumeronthehack)

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2016-08-02/kremlins-advantage

TheKremlin'sAdvantage
ThehackoftheU.S.DemocraticNationalCommitteeemails,nowwidelyattributedtoRussian
intelligence,hassetoffapoliticalearthquakeintheUnitedStates.Thebrazennessoftheattack,
thecrudeattempttointerveneinaU.S.presidentialelection,andtheequallybald-faceddenialin
thefaceofmountingevidenceofRussiangovernmentcomplicityhavepromptedahostof
questionsthatreallyamounttojustone:How?Althoughafullysatisfactoryanswermayneverbe
found,itisnottooearlytodrawsomeconclusionsfromtheepisodeconclusionsthatshould
informthegeneraldiscourseaboutRussia,aswellasaboutthechallengethatRussiawillpresent
tothenextU.S.administration,regardlessofwhoiselectedinNovember.
Thoseexperts(includingthiswriter),who,outofanabundanceofcaution,initiallygrappledwith
thenewsoftheDNCbreak-inbyinvokingtheinherentdifficultyofinvestigatingcybercrimes,
nowhavethegrowingbodyoffactandanalysispointingtoRussiasroleinthehack.Inkeeping
withNationalIntelligenceDirectorJamesClappersrecentremarksonthissubject,the
assumptionshouldbethatRussiawasbehindthebreak-in.Atthispoint,todenyitwouldsimply
bemisleadingthepublic.
WhydidtheRussiangovernmentdoit?Becauseitcould.Knowledgeispower.Havingtheinside
scooponanadversaryisasourceofleveragethatistoogoodtopassup.Andcollectingsuch
intelligenceiswhattheRussianintelligenceserviceshavealongrecordofdoingwithsomeskill
andsuccess.
AndwhydidthehackersreleasethedatastolenfromtheDNC?Didtheyreallyintendto
undermineDemocraticpresidentialcandidateHillaryClintonandtohelptheirpresumedfavorite,
theRepublicanDonaldTrump?Itwouldseemnaveordelusionaltoexpectthattheleakwould
affectthevoteinacountryofwellover300millioninacampaignwithsomanyresourcesbeing
expendedbysomanyinterests.AnyanalysisoftheRussiangovernmentsintentionsrequiresa
greatdealofspeculation.Butsomethingsareknown.
Russiangovernmentandstate-sponsoredagentshaveintervenedinothercountrieselectionsand
domesticpolitics.TheyhavedonesoinFrance,theNetherlands,Germany,andItaly,justto
namesomeU.S.allies.ForRussiasneighborsUkraine,theBalticstates,andMoldova
Moscowsheavyhandintheirdomesticpoliticsisaconstantworry.JustbecausetheUnited
Statesisbigandpowerfuldoesntmeanthatitsdomesticpoliticsisnecessarilyofflimitsto
Russianintelligence.Infact,theUnitedStatespositionintheworldastheonlytrulyglobal
powermakesitevenmoreofatargetforRussianintelligence.
Kremlinoperativesprobablyrememberthatthe2000U.S.presidentialelectionwasdetermined
byafewhangingchads.The2016electionmaywellbedecidedbyasmallnumberof
disgruntledsupportersofformerDemocraticcontenderBernieSanders,asthesesupportersmay
makethedecisiontostayhome,insteadofvotingforClinton.Inthatsense,thereleaseofstolen
DNCdocumentsmaybejustthethingtotipthescalesagainsther.
ThiswarrantsahardlookatwhetherTrumpisRussianPresidentVladimirPutinsfavored
choice.Therecordisremarkable:thepublicexchangeofpleasantriesbetweenTrumpandPutin
theRussianmoneyreportedlyinvestedinTrumpsprojectshisskeptical,transactionalapproach
toNATOhishintingatpossiblerecognitionofCrimeaasRussianterritoryandliftingofthe
sanctionsonRussiaandhismostrecentclaimthatPutinisnotgoingtogointoUkraine.Atthe
sametime,PutinisontherecordaccusingClintonoffomentingunrestinRussia.AndClintons
dislikeoftheRussianpresidentbeforetheDNChackwasequallywelldocumentedand
undoubtedlyhasgrownmoreintensesincethen.
Noneofthisshouldcomeasasurprise,justasnobodywassurprisedwhentheNorthKorean
governmenthackedintoSonyPicturescomputers.Theonlyshocktherewasthetechnical
expertisedemonstratedbytheparanoidhermitkingdom.AndRussianrulersarejustasparanoid
abouttheWesttheUnitedStates,inparticularanditsattemptstoencircleRussia,destabilizeit
athome,andmarginalizeitontheworldstage.
MuchhasbeenwrittenaboutRussianhybridwarfareatermthatcoversawiderangeof
activities,includingcovertoperations,theuseofirregularsandcriminalelements,cyber
operations,informationanddisinformationcampaigns,andsoon.Russiahaspracticedhybrid
warfarewithvaryingdegreesofsuccessinCrimea,ineasternUkraine,intheBalticstates,andin
Syria.
LessnotedisthatRussiansecurityservicesseeRussiaasbeingevenmoreavictimofhybrid
warfarethananaggressor.U.S.supportfordemocracyinandaroundRussiaisathreattothe
Kremlin.ThereleaseofthePanamaPapers,whichrevealedinformationaboutthehiddenwealth
andpresumedcorruptactivitiesoftherulingelite,hasbeenportrayedbytheKremlinasaneffort
inWashingtontodiscredititanddestabilizeRussia.Bythesametoken,theOlympicdoping
scandalisalsoseenasaWesternplotagainstRussia.U.S.-EUeconomicsanctionsagainstRussia
thatwereputinplaceinthewakeofRussiasinvasionofUkrainearedescribedasacoverforthe
realgoaltoweakenandpromoteregimechangeinRussia.
IntheeyesofRussianelites,Westernaggressionmustbemetwitharesponse.HackingintoDNC
computersandreleasinginformationontheDemocratsfundraisingpracticesissimplypayback
forWesternmediareportsaboutelitecorruptioninRussia.IthelpsboosttheRussiannarrative
thatmoneyandpoliticsgohandinhandeverywhereandthatRussiaisnodifferentfromthe
UnitedStatesorotherWesterncountrieswhosegovernmentsarecriticalofRussia.
Gettingcaughtred-handedlikelywontevenhurtPutinsstandingathome.TheRussianpublicis
longusedtothewarofkompromatsdishingdirtonpoliticalopponentsorbusinesscompetitors
whichhasbecomeastapleofpost-SovietRussianpoliticsandbusiness.Russianbusiness
tycoonsandtheKremlinpioneeredandfine-tunedthisformofcombatinthe1990susingmedia
outletstheyownedorcontrolled.CriticismfromtheWestdoesntmeanmuchinRussiathese
daysPutinspopularapprovalratingshotuptonear90percentafterheannexedCrimea.
Andsothisisbusinessasusual.Russiaisoutgunneditsdefensespendingisafractionofthatof
theUnitedStates.TheRussianeconomy,too,isfarsmallerthantheUnitedStates.TheKremlin
willnottrytomatchtheUnitedStatesgunforgunandtankfortank.Butitwillexploitwhat
advantagesithas.
Itwillusemilitaryforcecarefullywherethecorrelationofforcesfavorsitorwhereitsmilitary
plannerscanassuretheirleadersthatmilitaryactionwillnotleadtodisaster.Ukraineisthecasein
whichtheKremlinhadacompellinginterest,clearmilitarysuperiority,andanequallyclear
assurancethattheUnitedStateswouldnotintervene.
SyriawasanothercasewhereRussianmilitaryactionwasnecessarytoprotectRussianinterests
andwasassociatedwithfewrisks.ItwasneededtosupportthefalteringBasharal-Assadregime
andentailedrelativelysmallrisksbecausetheObamaadministrationhadmadeclearitsreluctance
tointervenemilitarilyinSyria.
Butwheretheuseofmilitaryforcecarrieswithitsignificantrisksthatarenotjustifiedby
compellinginterests,otherinstrumentsfromtheRussiantoolkitareandwillcontinuetobeused.
Forexample,anoutrightmilitaryattackagainsttheBalticstateswouldberiskyforRussia.It
wouldcarrywithitthethreatofadevastatingNATOretaliationandnuclearannihilation.
Therefore,theBalticswillbesubjectedtoasteadybarrageofinformationoperations,
disinformation,cyberattacks,airspaceviolations,andpokingandproddingtorattlethecountries
nervesandunderminetheirconfidenceinNATO.
Germanywillbesubjectedtodisinformation,spying,andmeddlinginitsdomesticpolitics.
Francesright-wingNationalFrontwillbethetargetofRussianattemptstogaininfluencein
Frenchpolitics.AndtheU.S.governmentanditspartiescancountontheircomputersbeingthe
focusofspecialattentionbyRussianhackers,bothfromintelligenceservicesandthosekeptat
armslengthtopretendtheyarenotpartoftheRussianstate.
EventsofthepastfewyearsfromtheannexationofCrimeatotheDNChackarenotan
aberrationrather,theyarepartofthesamechain.Theadversarial,hostilerelationshipwith
Russiaisheretostay.Putinisheretostay,too,sobettingonoutlastinghimwouldbeunwise.He
appearsverylikelytorunandbere-electedin2018,whichmeanshewillbeintheKremlinuntil
2024throughthenextU.S.presidentialtermandtheoneafterthat.
Someoftheneededstepsarealreadybeingtakenmilitarypreparednessmovesthatwere
proposedandadoptedatNATOsWalesandWarsawsummitsarenecessaryandwillprobablybe
followedbymoremeasurestoboostNATOsconventionalandnucleardefenseanddeterrent
capabilities.Buttanksandgunsalonearenotenough.Moreneedstobedoneincyber,
intelligence,informationoperation,andotherformsofhybridwarfare,aswellasdeterrence,
alongwithresilienceanddefensemeasuresagainstittomeetRussiaschallenge.Morealsois
neededtobereadytoconductcounter-offensiveoperationswhentheneedarises.Andallofthis
hastobedonewhilealsolookingforwaystoavoidaccidentalescalationandmaintainsomelines
ofcommunicationswiththeKremlin.RecognizingthenatureofthethreatthatRussiapresentsis
thefirststeptowarddealingwithit.
From: ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/25/201606:01:01PM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:FrolovDoesn'tBuytheTrumpasPutinAgentStuff(atall),buttheDNCHackisAnotherMatter

Hesuregoesoutofhiswaytodownplayeverysingleconnection.Nothingtoseehere...nothingtoseehere...Ithinkhe'smissing
thepoint.

SentfrommyiPhone

OnJul25,2016,at4:17PM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:

http://slon.ru/posts/71242



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From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 08/05/201609:40:34AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[LATENIGHTRUN][ANT/F]UAFullFighting'VerySoon'/US/+..[PUBLICANNOUNCEMENT]SymposiumhonoringUkraine's25thAnniversaryof
Subject:
Independence[Sept172016/PrincetonClubofNewYork]
Attachments: SymposiumProgram.pdfRegistrationForm.doc

From:wolodymyrzarycky[mailto:wzarcusur@gmail.com]
Sent:Thursday,August04,201610:02PM
Subject:Fwd:[LATENIGHTRUN][ANT/F]UAFullFighting'VerySoon'/US/+..[PUBLICANNOUNCEMENT]SymposiumhonoringUkraine's25thAnniversaryof
Independence[Sept172016/PrincetonClubofNewYork]

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
Date:Fri,Aug5,2016at1:01AM
Subject:Fwd:[LATENIGHTRUN][ANT/F]UAFullFighting'VerySoon'/US/+..[PUBLICANNOUNCEMENT]SymposiumhonoringUkraine's
25thAnniversaryofIndependence[Sept172016/PrincetonClubofNewYork]
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------

From:AntonivFamily<antoniv_family@msn.com>
Date:Thu,Aug4,2016at11:36PM
Subject:UAFullFighting'VerySoon'/US/+
To:

UkraineRebelsWarnofReturntoFullFighting'VerySoon'

http://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-rebels-warn-return-full-fighting-very-soon-487129?rx=us
Russian-backedrebelsinUkraineseasthavethreatenedareturntofull-scaleconflictverysoonifKievdoesnotrecallforcesawayfrom
thecontactline,newspaperIzvestiahasreported.

GlasnostGone

VideoFrirevealing#Russianarmyunloadingsuppliesfromtrains.100sofvehicles,inc@ShakhtarStadium

http://twitter.com/GlasnostGone/status/761242645792448512
(linktosnapshots)

WSJEditorialPage

PutinsinfowaronAmerica:TheDNCleakswereanotherRussianvictoryastheUSfailstofightback

http://on.wsj.com/2aZMkQE

Hey,Kremlin:Americanscanmakeloosetalkaboutnukes,too
StevenPiferThursday,August4,2016
http://www.brookings.edu/2016/08/04/hey-kremlin-americans-can-make-loose-talk-about-nukes-too/
...
Sometimes,Mr.Putinscommentsaremorethanalittleodd.Ina2015televisiondocumentary,hesaidhewaspreparedtoputnuclearforces
onalertastheRussianmilitaryseizedCrimea.ThatwasstrangebecauseUkrainehadnonucleararms.Itgavethemupinthe1990s,inlarge
partbecauseMoscowpromisedtorespectUkrainesindependenceandterritorialintegrity.KievevenkeptitsCrimean-basedtroopsin
garrison,notchallengingtheinvadingRussianforces.AsfortheWest,nocountrymovedtointervene.SowhywouldMr.Putinthinkofa
nuclearalert?...

U.S.IsLettingPutinWininSyria

LeonidBershidsky

http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-08-04/u-s-is-letting-putin-win-in-syria
...IftheAssadforcestakeAleppo,thewarwillbeessentiallybinary--betweentheAssadcoalitionandIslamicState.ForPutin,thisis
preferabletoanegotiatedsolution:ThedefeatoftheoppositiongroupsinAleppowouldmaketheU.S.reluctancetoleaveAssadinpower
irrelevant.Therewouldbenoalternative.
...

HarvardRepublicanClubdeclinestoendorseRepublicannomineeforfirsttimein128years

DonaldTrumpathreattothesurvivaloftheRepublic,groupsays

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/aug/4/harvard-republican-club-declines-to-endorse-republ/

...Hisauthoritariantendenciesandflirtationswithfascismareunparalleledinthehistoryofourdemocracy,thestatementread.Hehopes
todivideusbyrace,byclass,andbyreligion,instillingenoughfearandanxietytopropelhimselftotheWhiteHouse.Heislookingtotopit
neighboragainstneighbor,friendagainstfriend,AmericanagainstAmerican.Wewillnotstandforthisvitriolicrhetoricthatispoisoningour
countryandourchildren.

--------------------------

.net-7

,-.,
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VolodymyrViatrovych

July22at4:57am

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MFA:PolesdonotacceptRussiasattemptstoimposetheSovietversionofhistory,PAPdispatchfrom4
August2016
PolesdonotacceptRussiasattemptstoimposetheSovietversionofhistory,RafalSobczak,theDirectoroftheMFAsPressBureau,saidin
referencetoRussiareleasingnewcoinsintocirculationwhichshowcapitalcities,includingWarsaw,whichMoscowclaimsitliberatedafter
WorldWarII.
http://www.msz.gov.pl/en/news/they_wrote_about_us/0_mfa__poles_do_not_accept_russia_s_attempts_to_impose_the_soviet_version_of_history

[PUBLICANNOUNCEMENT]
UkrainianHistoricalEncountersSeries

Commemoratingthe25thAnniversaryoftheModernUkrainianState

September17,2016

NewYork,NY

DearFriendsofUkraine:

Youarerespectfullyinvitedto attendtheupcomingUkrainianHistoricalEncountersSeries,entitled, Commemoratingthe25th


AnniversaryoftheModernUkrainianState.TheforumwillbeheldonSaturday,September17,2016,atthePrincetonClubin
NewYorkCity.

Thefull-dayconferencewillbringtogetherkeygovernmentandnon-governmentrepresentatives,aswellasrenownedhistoriansfrom
theUnitedStates,UkraineandEuropetodiscussthehistoricalsignificanceofUkraineaswellasDelveintothecountrysprospectsfor
achievingmaturenationStatehoodbecomingafullfledgedmemberoftheEuro-AtlanticCommunity.

Theevent itself willfeaturefourpaneldiscussionsandthreehighlightpresentationsdedicatedtotakingafresh,criticallookat


UkrainesDistantPastandRecentPastaswellascarefullydiviningthenationsNearFutureandFurtherFuture.Theprogramalso
featuresaneveningbanquetwithreflectionsuponUkrainesPresentSituationprovidedbyseniorgovernmentofficialsfromtheUnited
StatesandUkraine.Intotal,overtwodozenfeaturedspeakersareexpectedtoaddresstheconferenceproceedings.

Thecompleteprogram withalistofinvitedspeakersisattached,asistheregistrationform.Youarewelcometoattendallofthe
specifiedplenarysessions.Yourpresencewillcertainlyenhancetheproceedingsyoumaychoosetojoin.Inaddition,weencourageyou
toalsoattendtheeveningsbanquet.

Duetothetimeconstraintsinvolvedwithorganizinganinternationalforum,wekindlyaskthatyoursvpnolaterthanseptember7,
2016,concerningyourparticipation. Pleasenotethatseatingislimited,thereforeweencourageyoutoRSVPatyourearliest
conveiencetoassureparticipation.

Forfurtherinformation,kindlycontacteitherTamaraGalloOlexy,UCCAPresident,phone:(212)228-6840/e-mail:tolexy@ucca.org,
o r W a l t e r Z a r y c k y j , U A H i s t o r i c a l E n c o u n t e r s S e r i e s ProgramCoordinator,phone: ( 2 1 2 ) 4 7 6 1 2 2 1/e-mail:
waz2102@caa.columbia.edu.

WelookforwardtowelcomingyouatthisHistoricforum.

TamaraGallo-Olexy

UCCAPresident

WalterZaryckyj
ProgramCoordinator

PS:PROGRAMANDREGISTRATIONFORMAREATTACHED

PSS:PROGRAMSNEAKPREVIEWBELOW:

UkrainianHistoricalEncountersSeries

SpecialEvent:

Commemoratingthe25thAnniversaryofthe

ModernUkrainianState

Date:September172016

NewYorkNY

[Venue:PrincetonClubofNY/JamesMadisonRoom]

8:30am9:00amRegistration

9:00am9:40amFocusSessionI:AFirstWordAboutModernUkraines25thBirthday

Chair:

RomaLisovych[UkrainianNationalAssociation]

FeaturedRemarks:

SamanthaPower[USPermanentRepresentativetotheUN]

VolodymyrYelchenko[UAPermanentRepresentativetotheUN]

9:40am11:05amPanelDiscussionI:TakingMeasureofUkrainesDistantPast

Moderator:

LubomyrHajda[HarvardUniversity]

ThreeSpeakers:

FrankSysyn[UniversityofAlberta/CIUS]

MarkVonHagen[ArizonaStateUniversity]

YuriShapoval[NationalAcademyofSciencesOfUkraine]


SuggestedTopics:

KyivanState&HetmanateUkraine

UkrainianNationalRepublic1917-1921

NationalLiberationStruggles1921-1991

11:05am11:15amCoffeeBreak

11:15am12:40pmPanelDiscussionII:AssessingUkrainesRecentPast

Moderator:

AdrianKarmazyn[VOAUADeskDirectorEmeritus]

ThreeSpeakers:

AlexanderMotyl[RutgersUniversity]

JamesSherr[RoyalInstituteofInternationalAffairs]

OleksandrSushko[InstituteforEuro-AtlanticCooperation]

SuggestedTopics:

TheGraniteRebellion

TheOrangeRevolution

Euro-Maidan

12:40pm1:10pmLunch

[ServedasabuffetintheAlexanderHamiltonRoom]

1:10pm1:40pmFocusSessionII:ReflectingonUkrainesCurrentWarintheEast

Chair:

AndersCorr[JournalofPoliticalRisk]

FeaturedSpeaker:

PhillipKarber[PotomacFoundation]

1:40pm3:05pmPanelDiscussionIII:DiviningUkrainesNearFuture

Moderator:

WilliamCourtney[RANDCorporation]


ThreeSpeakers:

DavidKramer[McCainInstitute]

ArielCohen[AtlanticCouncil]

VolodymyrVyatrovych[InstituteofNationalMemoryofUkraine]

SuggestedTopics:

ChancesforBuildingaDevelopedDemocraticPolity

ChancesforErectingaMatureMarketEconomy

ChancesforAchievinganEstablishedNationalIdentity

2:55pm3:15pmCoffeeBreak

3:15pm4:40pmPanelDiscussionIV:ContemplatingUkrainesFurtherFuture

Moderator:

JanuszBugajski[CenterforEuropeanPolicyAnalysis]

ThreeSpeakers:

GlenHoward[JamestownFoundation]

HermanPirchner[AmericanForeignPolicyCouncil]

YuriSergeyev[YaleUniversity/MacMillianCenterforInternationalStudies]

SuggestedTopics:

ChancesofPlayingontheEuropeanStage

ChancesofPerformingontheEuro-AtlanticStage

ChancesofBecomingaPlayerofGlobalNote

4:40pm5:30pmAFinalWordAboutModernUkraines25thBirthday

Chair:

MariannaZajac[UkrainianNationalWomensLeagueofAmerica]

FeaturedRemarks:

RefatChubarov[HeadoftheCrimeanTatarMejlis]

PaulRoderickGregory[StanfordUniversity/HooverInstitution]

7:00pm9:00pmSpeakersandPatronsBanquet

Host:TamaraGallo-Olexy[UkrainianCongressCommitteeofAmerica]

FeaturedSpeakers:
PresidentofUkrainePetroPoroshenko[INVITED]

VicePresidentoftheUnitedStatesJosephBiden[INVITED]

From: obolon78@yahoo.com
Senttime: 07/25/201609:55:32PM
To: robertotto25@gmail.comwilliamsjp@state.gov
Subject: Re:WikileaksDismantlingofDNCIsClearAttackbyPutinonClinton|Observer

Thanks.Right.Discussedthisp.m.Willfillyouintomorrowmorning.

------Originalmessage------
From:Bob
Date:Mon,Jul25,201617:40
To:williamsjp@state.govobolon78@yahoo.com
Subject:WikileaksDismantlingofDNCIsClearAttackbyPutinonClinton|Observer

http://observer.com/2016/07/wikileaks-dismantling-of-dnc-is-clear-attack-by-putin-on-clinton/

WikileaksDismantlingofDNCIsClearAttackbyPutinonClinton

WikileaksfounderJulianAssangeasillustratedfortheObserverin2014.(IllustrationbyJoeCiardiello)

TherecentWikileaksdumpof20,000emailsbelongingtotheDemocraticNationalCommitteehascausedpoliticalsensationandscandalonagrand
scale.TheseinternalcommunicationsrevealnothingflatteringabouttheDNCorHillaryClinton,whoissettobeanointedastheDemocrats
presidentialnomineeattheirpartyconventioninPhiladelphiathatgetsunderwaywithfanfaretoday.

WikileakshasthrownanuglywrenchintoHillaryscoronation.DNCemailsrevealaClintoncampaignthatsshadyanddishonest,nottomention
corrupt.ItssecretdealingswithHillarysopponentswhetherBernieSandersorDonaldTrumphavebeendistastefulandpossiblyillegal.Tosay
thisisanunflatteringportrayalofTeamClintonislikesayingtheTitanichadissueswithice.
Theramificationsofthismassiveleakarealreadyserious.DebbieWassermanSchultz,theembattledDNCchair,hasbeenforcedtotenderher
resignationinadvanceofthepartyconclaveinPhiladelphia,whileSenatorSanders,whosbeenrevealedasthetargetofmuchaggressiveDNC
attentionduringtheDemocraticprimarycampaign,statedhewasnotshockedbutImdisappointedbytheWikileaksrevelations.TheDemocrats
areanythingbutunitednowastheypreparetotakeonDonaldTrumpandtheRepublicans.

Ontheeveofthefour-dayDemocraticconventionextravaganza,thisdata-dumpcouldnothavebeentimedbettertodamageHillaryandherefforts
tomovebackintotheWhiteHousethisNovember.AlthoughitsdoubtfulthatleakedRNCinternalemailswouldmakeanymorepleasantareadfor
thepublic,ClintonwillemergefromthistarredwiththeindeliblebrushofcorruptionandcollusionwithherpartysleadershiptofixtheDemocratic
presidentialnomination.

WikileakshasdeliveredaspromisedonitspublicthreatsofdamagingTeamClintonwithhackedemails.AlthoughtheDNCcantdenythatmanyof
theleakedmessagesappearauthentictheywouldnthaveforcedthechairsresignationiftheywerefake,obviouslythereremainsthe
importantquestionofhowthevauntedprivacyorganizationgotitshandsonthem.

Itturnsoutthereshardlyanymysterythere.ItsnosecretthattheDNCwasrecentlysubjecttoamajorhack,onewhichindependent
cybersecurityexpertseasilyassessedasbeingtheworkofRussianintelligencethroughpreviouslyknowncut-outs.Oneofthem,calledCOZY
BEARorAPT29,hasusedspear-phishingtogainillegalaccesstomanyprivatenetworksintheWest,aswellastheWhiteHouse,theState
Department,andtheJointChiefsofStafflastyear.AnotherhackinggroupinvolvedintheattackontheDNC,calledFANCYBEARorAPT28,isa
well-knownRussianfront,asIvepreviouslyprofiled.

ThesebearsdidntmakemucheffortstohidetheirDNChackinonecaseleavingbehindaRussiannameinCyrillicasasignatureandKremlin
attributionhasbeenconfirmedbyindependentanalysisbyasecondcybersecurityfirm.

Theanswerthenissimple:RussianhackersworkingfortheKremlincyber-pilferedtheDNCthenpassedthepurloineddata,includingthousandsof
unflatteringemails,toWikileaks,whichhasshownthemtotheworld.

This,ofcourse,meansthatWikileaksisdoingMoscowsbiddingandhasplaceditselfinbedwithVladimirPutin.Inresponsetothedata-dump,
theDNChassaidasmuchandtheClintoncampaignhasendorsedtheviewthatMoscowprefersDonaldTrumpinthiselection,anditsusing
WikileakstoharmHillary.Thisview,consideredbizarrebymostpeopleaslateaslastweek,isbeingtakenseriouslybytheWhiteHouseasit
shouldbe.

Intruth,toanyoneversedincounterintelligenceandRussianespionagetradecraft,WikileakshasbeenanobviousKremlinfrontforyears,andits
nicetoseetheDemocratsandtheiralliesinthemainstreammediasuddenlycomearoundtothisviewwhichIvestatedpubliclysince2013,based
onmylongexperienceworkingagainstRussiansecurityagenciesintheSpyWar.

Wikileakscametointernationalprominencein2010whenitreleasedonlineaquarter-millionclassifiedStateDepartmentcablesthathadbeenstolen
bydisgruntledArmyPrivateBradley(nowChelsea)Manning.Thiswasahugeblackmarkforthen-SecretaryofStateHillaryClintonandunleashed
aglobalscandal.

TheresnothingnewaboutWikileaksoritskeyroleintheKremlinsinternationalpropagandaapparatus.

AssangephotographedbyanObserverreporterin2014.(Photo:EmilyLembo)
Wikileakswasfoundedin2006,ostensiblyasaprivacyorganizationandinrealityasavanityprojectbytheAustralianhacktivistJulianAssange,
whohasbeenhidingintheEcuadorianembassyinLondonsincemid-2012,ontherunfromrapechargesinSweden.Itsunclearwhenthegroups
tiestotheKremlinwereforged,butitsobvioustheyexistedbythetimeWikileakstookcenterstageintheEdwardSnowdencaseinmid-2013.

TheroleofWikileaksintheSnowdensagawouldbedifficulttooverstate,notleastsinceAssangewastheonewhocounseledtheAmericanIT
contractortoseeksanctuaryinRussia.SnowdenleftHongKongforMoscowinJune2013whereheremainsbasedonAssangesadviceand
accompaniedbySarahHarrison,atopWikileaksofficialandAssangeintimate.

WhyAssangerecommendedthattheNSAcontractoronthelamseekPutinsprotectionisanimportantquestion.AsIexplainedlastyear:

OnlyinRussiawouldEdbesafe,Juliancounseled,becausetherehewouldbeprotectedbyVladimirPutinandhissecretservices,notablythe
FSB.OnemightthinkthatseekingtheshelteroftheFSBoneoftheworldsnastiestsecretpoliceforcesthatspiesonmillionswithoutwarrant
andmurdersopponentsfreelymightbeanoddchoiceforaprivacyorganization.ButWikileaksisnoordinaryNGO.

WhyAssangeknewRussiawouldtakeinSnowdenitcouldbeabigpoliticalhassleforMoscowisakeyquestionthatany
counterintelligenceofficerwouldwantanswered.WasJulianspeakingonbehalfoftheFSBordidhejustknowEdcouldobtainthe
sanctuaryplusprotectionhesought?

ThentherestherevealingfactthatAssangehaswantedFSBprotectionforhimselftoo:

WhileholedupinLondon,AssangerequestedthathebeabletochoosehisownSecurityServiceinsidetheembassy,suggestingtheuseof
Russianoperatives.Itis,tosaytheleast,surpassinglystrangethataWesternprivacyadvocatewantsRussiansecretpoliceprotectionwhile
hidingoutinaWesterncountry.

TheresnodoubtthatAssangeconsidersPutinshighlyunsavorysecretservicestobehisfriends.Whyisaverygoodquestionthatanybody
whoslookingintoWikileaksoughttoask.

Allthesame,AssangesaffectionfortheKremlinanditsintelligenceagenciesisnothingnewandwassomethingIwroteaboutfullythreeyears
ago,astheSnowdenstorywasbreaking.ThisrevolvedaroundIsraelShamir,ananti-SemiticnutcasewhosbeenintheWikileaksorbitformany
years,servingasacloseconfidanttoAssangeandhisgo-toguyonRussianmatters.AsIelaboratedbackinJuly2013:

SowhoisIsraelShamir?Thatsnotaneasyquestiontoanswerwithmuchcertainty.HisofficialbiographystatesthathewasbornintheSoviet
Unionin1947andemigratedtoIsraelin1969,butlittleofhiscurriculumvitaestandsuptodetailedscrutiny.Headmitstohavingsomething
likeahalf-dozendifferentidentities,completewithaliases.Ofgreatestinteresthereisthat,beforehebecamefamousforhisWikileakslinks,he
wasbestknownasaneo-NaziholocaustdenierinEuropeancircles.WhichisaprettyrarethingforaJewandIsraelicitizentogetmixedupin.

Shamir,operatingunderseveralnames,isnotedforhisanti-SemiticvitriolandisfondofextollingtheProtocolsoftheEldersofZionand
hangingoutwithNordicneo-Nazis.HisviewsaresostrangeandvehementthatmanyhavewonderedifShamirsisactuallyanagent
provocateuronbehalfofsomeintelligenceservice.JewishscholarNormanFinkelstein,knownforhisownpro-Palestinianviews,whocrossed
pathswithShamirmorethanonce,calledhimamaniac,adding,Hehasinventedhisentirepersonalhistory.Nothinghesaysabouthimself
istrue.Inall,ShamirsaprettyoddchoiceasWikileaksgo-toguyforRussia.

AlthoughWikileakshassemi-deniedthatShamirisontheirpayroll,Shamirhimselfhasbeenabundantlyclearwhoheworksfor.Thesecretservices
hadthisoddballpeggedasaKGBagentwaybackinthe1980s,andgivenShamirspro-Moscowrantstothepresentdaythereseemsnoreasonto
doubthesstillfriendlywithRussianspecialservices.

SinceAssangehasntexactlybeenshyabouthispro-MoscowviewsincludinghavinghisownshowonRT,theKremlinagitpropnetworkwhy
Westernreportershaventbeendiggingintothismessuntilaboutfourdaysagoisanimportantquestion.EspeciallysinceAssangeyearsago
droppedanypretenseofobjectivity,slavishlyfollowingtheMoscowlineonawidearrayofissuessuchasSyriawhichhavenothingtodowith
privacy.

ThatAssangeandWikileaksaresurrogatesforPutinisnowobvious,andintruthhasbeenforsometime,asthemediahasbeengradually
noticing.TheiroperationtotakedownHillaryClintonaboutwhomAssange,inanexclusiveinterviewwiththeObserverin2014,said:itispretty
clearthatwearewitnessingthebirthofaGoogle-military-surveillancecomplexismerelythefinalstraw.

Icounseledthisayearago:Wikileaksshouldbetreatedasthefrontandcut-outforRussianintelligencethatithasbecome,whilethosewhoget
inbedwithWikileaksmanyWesternprivacyadvocatesareinthatgroupshouldbeaskedtheirfeelingsabouttheirownatleastindirectties
withPutinsspyservices.ItsbettertoseetheWesternmediagettherelateratherthannever.

TheresnothingnewaboutWikileaksoritskeyroleintheKremlinsinternationalpropagandaapparatus.Backin1978themagazineCovertAction
InformationBulletinappearedtoexposethesecretsofWesternintelligence.ItseditorwasPhilAgee,adisgruntledformerCIAofficerwhohad
gottenintobedwithCubanandSovietintelligence(hisKGBcovernamewasPONT).CAIBwasinfactfoundedonthedirectionoftheKGBandfor
yearsservedasaconduitforKremlinliesanddisinformationthatseriouslyharmedWesternintelligence.

WhileCAIBpresenteditselftothepublicasatruth-tellinggroupofwhistleblowers,inactualityitwasaKGBfront,thoughfewmagazinestaffers
beyondAgeeknewwhowasreallycallingtheshotsandpayingthebills.ItsbesttothinkofWkilieaksasnomorethanCAIBupdatedforthe
Internetage.SinceseniorKremlinsecurityofficialshaverecentlyadmittedthatSnowdenistheiragent,andhassharedAmericansecretswiththem,
EdismerelytodaysPhilAgeethoughPhilatleasthadthesensetodefecttosunnyHavanaratherthansnowyMoscow.

TheimportantpartofthisstoryisthatRussianintelligence,usingitsWikileakscut-out,hasinterveneddirectlyinanAmericanpresidential
election.ThiswassomethingeventheKGBwassheepishaboutdoingattheheightoftheColdWar,butPutinfearsnothinginObamas
Washington,ashisincreasinglybrazenactionsagainstAmericansplainlyillustrate.
ThemostdamagingaspecttotheDNCleakisthecertaintythatMoscowhasplaceddisinformationthatis,falseinformationhiddenamongfacts
toharmtheDemocratsandtheClintoncampaign.DisinformationisavenerableRussianspytrickthatcanbepoliticallydevastatingtoitstarget.

Disinformationismosteffectivewhenitplaysuponessentialtruths.SinceHillaryreallyiscorruptandlessthanhonest,andtheDNCactuallyhas
doneherbiddinginshadyways,liesthatamplifythosethemeswillbereadilybelievedbymanyAmericans.ItsobviousthatMoscowprefers
TrumpoverClintoninthiselection,whichoughtnotsurprisegiventheimportantroleofPutin-friendlyadvisorsintheTrumpcampaign,andwhat
betterwaytohelpistherethantodiscreditTeamClinton?

ItsapparentalreadythatsomeofthemostsalaciousemailsintheDNCmega-dumparefakeasistobeexpected.ItsnormalRussianspycraftto
placejuicyfakemessagesamongalotofgenuineones.HereweneedrigorousindependentanalysisofthislatestWikileaksoperationtoassess
whatsrealandwhatsmadeupbysomebodyinMoscow.

ImanythingbutaHillaryfan,asmyextensivereportingonhercrimesandliesinEmailGatecanattest.However,Iamfarmoretroubledbythe
nakedinterferenceoftheKremlinanditsspyagenciesinAmericandemocracy,whichisathreattoourfreedomsbeyondanythingtheClintons
mightdo.EveryAmericanshoulddemandthoroughinvestigationoftheDNCleakanditswellpasttimeforthemainstreammediatoexamine
closelywhatWikileaksreallyisasIvebeendoingforyears.Itssatisfyingtoseemyreality-basedcounterintelligenceanalysisofWikileaks
finallybeingendorsedbythemedia,butIwouldhavepreferrediftheyhadpaidattentionearlierandthecurrentelection-yeardisasterwithDNC
emailshadbeenavoided.

Disclosure:DonaldTrumpisthefather-in-lawofJaredKushner,thepublisherofObserverMedia.

JohnSchindlerisasecurityexpertandformerNationalSecurityAgencyanalystandcounterintelligenceofficer.Aspecialistinespionageand
terrorism,hesalsobeenaNavyofficerandaWarCollegeprofessor.HespublishedfourbooksandisonTwitterat@20committee.

SentfrommyiPad
From: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/25/201602:40:12PM
To: obolon78@yahoo.comwilliamsjp@state.gov
BCc: ottorc@state.gov
Subject: WikileaksDismantlingofDNCIsClearAttackbyPutinonClinton|Observer

WikileaksDismantlingofDNCIsClearAttackbyPutinonClinton

WikileaksfounderJulianAssangeasillustratedfortheObserverin2014.(IllustrationbyJoeCiardiello)

TherecentWikileaksdumpof20,000emailsbelongingtotheDemocraticNationalCommitteehascausedpolitical
sensationandscandalonagrandscale.TheseinternalcommunicationsrevealnothingflatteringabouttheDNCorHillary
Clinton,whoissettobeanointedastheDemocratspresidentialnomineeattheirpartyconventioninPhiladelphiathat
getsunderwaywithfanfaretoday.

WikileakshasthrownanuglywrenchintoHillaryscoronation.DNCemailsrevealaClintoncampaignthatsshadyand
dishonest,nottomentioncorrupt.ItssecretdealingswithHillarysopponentswhetherBernieSandersorDonaldTrump
havebeendistastefulandpossiblyillegal.TosaythisisanunflatteringportrayalofTeamClintonislikesayingthe
Titanichadissueswithice.

Theramificationsofthismassiveleakarealreadyserious.DebbieWassermanSchultz,theembattledDNCchair,hasbeen
forcedtotenderherresignationinadvanceofthepartyconclaveinPhiladelphia,whileSenatorSanders,whosbeen
revealedasthetargetofmuchaggressiveDNCattentionduringtheDemocraticprimarycampaign,statedhewasnot
shockedbutImdisappointedbytheWikileaksrevelations.TheDemocratsareanythingbutunitednowastheyprepare
totakeonDonaldTrumpandtheRepublicans.

Ontheeveofthefour-dayDemocraticconventionextravaganza,thisdata-dumpcouldnothavebeentimedbetterto
damageHillaryandhereffortstomovebackintotheWhiteHousethisNovember.Althoughitsdoubtfulthatleaked
RNCinternalemailswouldmakeanymorepleasantareadforthepublic,Clintonwillemergefromthistarredwiththe
indeliblebrushofcorruptionandcollusionwithherpartysleadershiptofixtheDemocraticpresidentialnomination.

WikileakshasdeliveredaspromisedonitspublicthreatsofdamagingTeamClintonwithhackedemails.Althoughthe
DNCcantdenythatmanyoftheleakedmessagesappearauthentictheywouldnthaveforcedthechairsresignationif
theywerefake,obviouslythereremainstheimportantquestionofhowthevauntedprivacyorganizationgotitshands
onthem.

Itturnsoutthereshardlyanymysterythere.ItsnosecretthattheDNCwasrecentlysubjecttoamajorhack,onewhich
independentcybersecurityexpertseasilyassessedasbeingtheworkofRussianintelligencethroughpreviouslyknown
cut-outs.Oneofthem,calledCOZYBEARorAPT29,hasusedspear-phishingtogainillegalaccesstomanyprivate
networksintheWest,aswellastheWhiteHouse,theStateDepartment,andtheJointChiefsofStafflastyear.Another
hackinggroupinvolvedintheattackontheDNC,calledFANCYBEARorAPT28,isawell-knownRussianfront,as
Ivepreviouslyprofiled.

ThesebearsdidntmakemucheffortstohidetheirDNChackinonecaseleavingbehindaRussiannameinCyrillicas
asignatureandKremlinattributionhasbeenconfirmedbyindependentanalysisbyasecondcybersecurityfirm.

Theanswerthenissimple:RussianhackersworkingfortheKremlincyber-pilferedtheDNCthenpassedthepurloined
data,includingthousandsofunflatteringemails,toWikileaks,whichhasshownthemtotheworld.

This,ofcourse,meansthatWikileaksisdoingMoscowsbiddingandhasplaceditselfinbedwithVladimirPutin.In
responsetothedata-dump,theDNChassaidasmuchandtheClintoncampaignhasendorsedtheviewthatMoscow
prefersDonaldTrumpinthiselection,anditsusingWikileakstoharmHillary.Thisview,consideredbizarrebymost
peopleaslateaslastweek,isbeingtakenseriouslybytheWhiteHouseasitshouldbe.

Intruth,toanyoneversedincounterintelligenceandRussianespionagetradecraft,WikileakshasbeenanobviousKremlin
frontforyears,anditsnicetoseetheDemocratsandtheiralliesinthemainstreammediasuddenlycomearoundtothis
viewwhichIvestatedpubliclysince2013,basedonmylongexperienceworkingagainstRussiansecurityagenciesin
theSpyWar.

Wikileakscametointernationalprominencein2010whenitreleasedonlineaquarter-millionclassifiedStateDepartment
cablesthathadbeenstolenbydisgruntledArmyPrivateBradley(nowChelsea)Manning.Thiswasahugeblackmarkfor
then-SecretaryofStateHillaryClintonandunleashedaglobalscandal.

TheresnothingnewaboutWikileaksoritskeyroleintheKremlinsinternationalpropagandaapparatus.
AssangephotographedbyanObserverreporterin2014.(Photo:EmilyLembo)

Wikileakswasfoundedin2006,ostensiblyasaprivacyorganizationandinrealityasavanityprojectbytheAustralian
hacktivistJulianAssange,whohasbeenhidingintheEcuadorianembassyinLondonsincemid-2012,ontherunfrom
rapechargesinSweden.ItsunclearwhenthegroupstiestotheKremlinwereforged,butitsobvioustheyexistedbythe
timeWikileakstookcenterstageintheEdwardSnowdencaseinmid-2013.

TheroleofWikileaksintheSnowdensagawouldbedifficulttooverstate,notleastsinceAssangewastheonewho
counseledtheAmericanITcontractortoseeksanctuaryinRussia.SnowdenleftHongKongforMoscowinJune2013
whereheremainsbasedonAssangesadviceandaccompaniedbySarahHarrison,atopWikileaksofficialand
Assangeintimate.

WhyAssangerecommendedthattheNSAcontractoronthelamseekPutinsprotectionisanimportantquestion.AsI
explainedlastyear:

OnlyinRussiawouldEdbesafe,Juliancounseled,becausetherehewouldbeprotectedbyVladimirPutinandhis
secretservices,notablytheFSB.OnemightthinkthatseekingtheshelteroftheFSBoneoftheworldsnastiest
secretpoliceforcesthatspiesonmillionswithoutwarrantandmurdersopponentsfreelymightbeanoddchoice
foraprivacyorganization.ButWikileaksisnoordinaryNGO.

WhyAssangeknewRussiawouldtakeinSnowdenitcouldbeabigpoliticalhassleforMoscowisakey
questionthatanycounterintelligenceofficerwouldwantanswered.WasJulianspeakingonbehalfoftheFSBor
didhejustknowEdcouldobtainthesanctuaryplusprotectionhesought?

ThentherestherevealingfactthatAssangehaswantedFSBprotectionforhimselftoo:

WhileholedupinLondon,AssangerequestedthathebeabletochoosehisownSecurityServiceinsidethe
embassy,suggestingtheuseofRussianoperatives.Itis,tosaytheleast,surpassinglystrangethataWestern
privacyadvocatewantsRussiansecretpoliceprotectionwhilehidingoutinaWesterncountry.
TheresnodoubtthatAssangeconsidersPutinshighlyunsavorysecretservicestobehisfriends.Whyisaverygood
questionthatanybodywhoslookingintoWikileaksoughttoask.

Allthesame,AssangesaffectionfortheKremlinanditsintelligenceagenciesisnothingnewandwassomethingIwrote
aboutfullythreeyearsago,astheSnowdenstorywasbreaking.ThisrevolvedaroundIsraelShamir,ananti-Semitic
nutcasewhosbeenintheWikileaksorbitformanyyears,servingasacloseconfidanttoAssangeandhisgo-toguyon
Russianmatters.AsIelaboratedbackinJuly2013:

SowhoisIsraelShamir?Thatsnotaneasyquestiontoanswerwithmuchcertainty.Hisofficialbiographystates
thathewasbornintheSovietUnionin1947andemigratedtoIsraelin1969,butlittleofhiscurriculumvitae
standsuptodetailedscrutiny.Headmitstohavingsomethinglikeahalf-dozendifferentidentities,completewith
aliases.Ofgreatestinteresthereisthat,beforehebecamefamousforhisWikileakslinks,hewasbestknownasa
neo-NaziholocaustdenierinEuropeancircles.WhichisaprettyrarethingforaJewandIsraelicitizentoget
mixedupin.

Shamir,operatingunderseveralnames,isnotedforhisanti-SemiticvitriolandisfondofextollingtheProtocols
oftheEldersofZionandhangingoutwithNordicneo-Nazis.Hisviewsaresostrangeandvehementthatmany
havewonderedifShamirsisactuallyanagentprovocateuronbehalfofsomeintelligenceservice.Jewishscholar
NormanFinkelstein,knownforhisownpro-Palestinianviews,whocrossedpathswithShamirmorethanonce,
calledhimamaniac,adding,Hehasinventedhisentirepersonalhistory.Nothinghesaysabouthimselfis
true.Inall,ShamirsaprettyoddchoiceasWikileaksgo-toguyforRussia.

AlthoughWikileakshassemi-deniedthatShamirisontheirpayroll,Shamirhimselfhasbeenabundantlyclearwhohe
worksfor.ThesecretserviceshadthisoddballpeggedasaKGBagentwaybackinthe1980s,andgivenShamirspro-
MoscowrantstothepresentdaythereseemsnoreasontodoubthesstillfriendlywithRussianspecialservices.

SinceAssangehasntexactlybeenshyabouthispro-MoscowviewsincludinghavinghisownshowonRT,theKremlin
agitpropnetworkwhyWesternreportershaventbeendiggingintothismessuntilaboutfourdaysagoisanimportant
question.EspeciallysinceAssangeyearsagodroppedanypretenseofobjectivity,slavishlyfollowingtheMoscowlineon
awidearrayofissuessuchasSyriawhichhavenothingtodowithprivacy.

ThatAssangeandWikileaksaresurrogatesforPutinisnowobvious,andintruthhasbeenforsometime,asthemedia
hasbeengraduallynoticing.TheiroperationtotakedownHillaryClintonaboutwhomAssange,inanexclusiveinterview
withtheObserverin2014,said:itisprettyclearthatwearewitnessingthebirthofaGoogle-military-surveillance
complexismerelythefinalstraw.

Icounseledthisayearago:Wikileaksshouldbetreatedasthefrontandcut-outforRussianintelligencethatithas
become,whilethosewhogetinbedwithWikileaksmanyWesternprivacyadvocatesareinthatgroupshouldbe
askedtheirfeelingsabouttheirownatleastindirecttieswithPutinsspyservices.ItsbettertoseetheWesternmediaget
therelateratherthannever.

TheresnothingnewaboutWikileaksoritskeyroleintheKremlinsinternationalpropagandaapparatus.Backin1978
themagazineCovertActionInformationBulletinappearedtoexposethesecretsofWesternintelligence.Itseditorwas
PhilAgee,adisgruntledformerCIAofficerwhohadgottenintobedwithCubanandSovietintelligence(hisKGB
covernamewasPONT).CAIBwasinfactfoundedonthedirectionoftheKGBandforyearsservedasaconduitfor
KremlinliesanddisinformationthatseriouslyharmedWesternintelligence.

WhileCAIBpresenteditselftothepublicasatruth-tellinggroupofwhistleblowers,inactualityitwasaKGBfront,
thoughfewmagazinestaffersbeyondAgeeknewwhowasreallycallingtheshotsandpayingthebills.Itsbesttothinkof
WkilieaksasnomorethanCAIBupdatedfortheInternetage.SinceseniorKremlinsecurityofficialshaverecently
admittedthatSnowdenistheiragent,andhassharedAmericansecretswiththem,EdismerelytodaysPhilAgee
thoughPhilatleasthadthesensetodefecttosunnyHavanaratherthansnowyMoscow.

TheimportantpartofthisstoryisthatRussianintelligence,usingitsWikileakscut-out,hasinterveneddirectlyinan
Americanpresidentialelection.ThiswassomethingeventheKGBwassheepishaboutdoingattheheightoftheCold
War,butPutinfearsnothinginObamasWashington,ashisincreasinglybrazenactionsagainstAmericansplainlyillustrate.

ThemostdamagingaspecttotheDNCleakisthecertaintythatMoscowhasplaceddisinformationthatis,false
informationhiddenamongfactstoharmtheDemocratsandtheClintoncampaign.DisinformationisavenerableRussian
spytrickthatcanbepoliticallydevastatingtoitstarget.

Disinformationismosteffectivewhenitplaysuponessentialtruths.SinceHillaryreallyiscorruptandlessthanhonest,and
theDNCactuallyhasdoneherbiddinginshadyways,liesthatamplifythosethemeswillbereadilybelievedbymany
Americans.ItsobviousthatMoscowprefersTrumpoverClintoninthiselection,whichoughtnotsurprisegiventhe
importantroleofPutin-friendlyadvisorsintheTrumpcampaign,andwhatbetterwaytohelpistherethantodiscredit
TeamClinton?

ItsapparentalreadythatsomeofthemostsalaciousemailsintheDNCmega-dumparefakeasistobeexpected.Its
normalRussianspycrafttoplacejuicyfakemessagesamongalotofgenuineones.Hereweneedrigorousindependent
analysisofthislatestWikileaksoperationtoassesswhatsrealandwhatsmadeupbysomebodyinMoscow.

ImanythingbutaHillaryfan,asmyextensivereportingonhercrimesandliesinEmailGatecanattest.However,Iamfar
moretroubledbythenakedinterferenceoftheKremlinanditsspyagenciesinAmericandemocracy,whichisathreatto
ourfreedomsbeyondanythingtheClintonsmightdo.EveryAmericanshoulddemandthoroughinvestigationoftheDNC
leakanditswellpasttimeforthemainstreammediatoexaminecloselywhatWikileaksreallyisasIvebeendoingfor
years.Itssatisfyingtoseemyreality-basedcounterintelligenceanalysisofWikileaksfinallybeingendorsedbythemedia,
butIwouldhavepreferrediftheyhadpaidattentionearlierandthecurrentelection-yeardisasterwithDNCemailshad
beenavoided.

Disclosure:DonaldTrumpisthefather-in-lawofJaredKushner,thepublisherofObserverMedia.

JohnSchindlerisasecurityexpertandformerNationalSecurityAgencyanalystandcounterintelligenceofficer.A
specialistinespionageandterrorism,hesalsobeenaNavyofficerandaWarCollegeprofessor.Hespublished
fourbooksandisonTwitterat@20committee.

SentfrommyiPad
From: ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>
Senttime: 06/16/201603:50:10PM
To: robertotto25@gmail.comEugeneRumer<rumereugene@gmail.com>
Subject: Really,Trenin-Lukyanov?RussiadeniesDNChackandsaysmaybesomeoneforgotthepassword-TheWashingtonPost

http://www.washingtonpost.com/pb/news/worldviews/wp/2016/06/15/russias-unusual-response-to-charges-it-hacked-
research-on-trump/

RussiadeniesDNChackandsaysmaybesomeone
forgotthepassword

RussianPresidentVladimirPutinduringameetingofASEAN-RussiaBusinessForummembersinSochi,Russia,onMay
20,2016.(PoolphotobyHostPhotoAgencyviaEPA)

MOSCOWWhenRussiafacesuncomfortableaccusationsfromabroad,theKremlinnormallylashesbackwithofficial
declarationsandscornfulcommentsonstatetelevision.

ButwhentheDemocraticNationalCommitteeandcybersecurityexpertstoldTheWashingtonPostthatRussian
governmenthackershadstolenanentiredatabaseofoppositionresearchonpresumptiveGOPpresidential
nomineeDonaldTrump,officialsheremettheaccusationswithlittlemorethanasimpledenialandashrug.

"Usuallythesekindsofleakstakeplacenotbecausehackersbrokein,but,asanyprofessionalwilltellyou,because
someonesimplyforgotthepasswordorsetthesimplepassword123456,"GermanKlimenko,Putin'stopInternet
adviser,saidinremarkscarriedbytheRIANovostistatenewsagency."Well,it'salwayssimplertoexplainthisawayasthe
intriguesofenemies,ratherthanone'sownincompetence."

"Iabsolutelyruleoutthepossibilitythatthegovernmentorgovernmentagencieswereinvolvedinthis,"DmitryPeskov,a
spokesmanforPresidentVladimirPutin,toldjournalistsinacurtstatement.

[RussiangovernmenthackerspenetratedDNC,stoleoppositionresearchonTrump]

WesternofficialshaveaccusedRussiaofconductingacampaignofhigh-profilehackingattacksthathaveincluded
cyberattacksin2007againstEstonia,a2014assaultonUkraine'spowergridandabreachoftheWhiteHouse's
unclassifiedemailserverlastyear.ThelatestrevelationsriskedplungingtheKremlinintothemidstofaheated
U.S.electioncyclethathascapturedtheattentionofaMoscoweliteeagerforchangeinWashington.

Overtheyears,theKremlinhasgrownusedtobrushingoffthesekindsofaccusations.Reportsofhackinghavebecome
"ubiquitous,"DmitriTrenin,directoroftheCarnegieMoscowCenterandaformerRussianarmyofficer,saidbytelephone.
"Idon'tthinkthatit'ssomethingtheywillbereallytalkingmuchaboutorworriedabout."

Moststatetelevisionchannels,throughwhichthevastmajorityofRussiansgettheirinformation,didnotairreportsonthe
allegations.Someofthefewofficialcomments,postedonlinebyRussiannewsagencies,weredismissive.

WorldViewsnewsletter

Importantstoriesfromaroundtheworld.

RussianofficialshaveaddressedtheU.S.electionssparingly.PutinhasofferedguardedpraiseforTrump,callinghim"lively"
and"talented"duringanationallytelevisednewsconferenceinDecember.But,onthewhole,theRussianleaderhasstayed
silentontheU.S.presidentialrace.

FyodorLukyanov,awell-connectedpoliticalanalystinMoscowandtheeditorofRussiainGlobalAffairs,aforeignpolicy
journal,saidthatthereisgreatinterestintheU.S.electionsamongRussianelitesandthatmanyseeTrumpaspotentiallya
betterpartnerforRussiathanHillaryClinton.

"Idon'tseewhytheywouldbeinterestedindoingthis,whichwouldjustelectrifythecampaignoftheDemocratic
candidate,"Lukyanovsaid,notingthathewasn'tbriefedonthespecificsofthehackingcase."Ithinkinthecaseofthese
reportsthatmanypeoplearejustusedtoseeingthescaryghostofMr.Putin."

Treninechoedthatthought."Iwouldbesuspiciousthatthatwouldbeatargetofimportancetoforeignintelligence,"hesaid.
TheDNCisa"soft"targetcomparedwiththeNationalSecurityCouncil,headded."Theywouldlikelyspendtheir
resourceselsewhere.Thenagain,Idon'tknow."

Readmore:

JustbecauseRussianslikePutindoesntmeantheyrehappyabouttheeconomy

ThePutin-Trumpkissbeingsharedaroundtheworld

Thenot-completely-crazytheorythatRussialeakedthePanamaPapers
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 07/31/201610:10:18AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[HOMEWORKINLATEJULY..AREUNUTS?JEEZ.MAYBETIMEFORIT...IFYOUDON'TWANTTHE'GUNSOF
Subject: AUGUST'!!][WD]R.ColvileQuestion:"IsVladimirPutinRussia'sgrandmasterofchaosinourfracturedage?"..LookingfortheanswerinA.
Dugin'swork...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Saturday,July30,20162:53PM
Subject:Fwd:[HOMEWORKINLATEJULY..AREUNUTS?JEEZ.MAYBETIMEFORIT...IFYOUDON'TWANTTHE'GUNSOFAUGUST'!!]
[WD]R.ColvileQuestion:"IsVladimirPutinRussia'sgrandmasterofchaosinourfracturedage?"..LookingfortheanswerinA.Dugin's
work...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Sat,Jul30,2016at5:51PM
Subject:[HOMEWORKINLATEJULY..AREUNUTS?JEEZ.MAYBETIMEFORIT...IFYOUDON'TWANTTHE
'GUNSOFAUGUST'!!][WD]R.ColvileQuestion:"IsVladimirPutinRussia'sgrandmasterofchaosinourfractured
age?"..LookingfortheanswerinA.Dugin'sworkandtwoearlymasterfulcommentariesonDugin'swork:JohnD(2004)Ilan
B(2005)
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Sat,Jul30,2016at11:12AM
Subject:IsVladimirPutinRussia'sgrandmasterofchaosinourfracturedage?
To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu,wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,walter.derzko@utoronto.ca

IsVladimirPutinRussia'sgrandmasterofchaosin
ourfracturedage?
Putinhasengagedinanextraordinarycampaignofpromotingandsponsoringpoliticalparties
acrossEurope.

ByRobertColvile

July26,201617:27BST

360
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinandU.S.PresidentBarackObamaattheUnitedNationsheadquarters,
September28,2015,NewYorkGettyImages

ThehackingandleakingofembarrassingemailsfromwithintheDemocraticNationalCommittee(DNC)has
beenblamed,prettyconvincingly,onRussia.Ifso,thisshouldbeashockingmoment:anakedattemptbyVladimir
Putin'sregimetointerferewiththeelectoralprocessinanothercountry.

Itshouldbeshocking.Butitverymuchisn't.Notjustbecause,intheageofDonaldTrump,we'veallhadtodeal
witharelentlesserosionofourcapacityforoutrage.ButbecausePutin'sRussiathecountrythatshutdownahost
offoreign-fundedNGOsonthepretextthattheywereattemptingtomeddleinitsdomesticpoliticshasbeen
engagedinalong-standing,remarkablysuccessfulandcompletelyunsubtleattempttodoexactlythesamething.

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We'reallfamiliarwithitstrackrecordinitsownbackyard:theinvasionofGeorgia,theinstigationofacivilwarin
Ukraineandsubsequentillegalannexationofachunkofitsterritory.

ButPutin'stentaclesstretchfarmorewidely.Therearethemostvisiblesigns,ofcourse:themegaphonesofRussia
Today(theTVnewschannel)andSputnikNews(the"alternativenews"website).Thesepumpoutarelentlessstream
ofstoriesdesignedtomaketheWestlookbadandRussialookgood,aswellasofferingheftyappearancefeesto
sympatheticfigures:GeorgeGalloway,forexample,trousered1,600aweekfortwohours'presentingwork.

Butbeyondsuchvisibleefforts,Putinhasengagedinanextraordinarycampaignofpromotingandsponsoring
politicalpartiesacrossEurope.Earlierthisyear,theTelegraphreportedthatUSintelligenceisinvestigating
Russia'spoliticalactivitiesinFrance,theNetherlands,Hungary,AustriaandtheCzechRepublic.TheKremlinhas
builttieswithGoldenDawninGreece,loanedmillionstoMarineLePen'sFrontNationalviaRussianbanks,and
agreedenergydealsfromwhich,accordingtothethenAmericanambassadorinRome,SilvioBerlusconibenefited
"personallyandhandsomely".

Allthis,saysEdLucas,aseniorEconomisteditorandauthorofTheNewColdWar,ispartof"along-running
RussianattempttomanipulatebothinformationandopinionintheWest".UnlikeitsSovietpredecessor,Russia
doesn'twanttodestroytheWest,saysLucas:"WhattheywantisfortheWesttobemalleableandforthatto
happentheeliteshavetobediscreditedintheeyesofthevoters,andthecollectivesecurityarrangementsthatwe
havemustbeweakenedandbroken.That'sbecause,ifRussia'sdealingwithacountrybilaterally,it'salwaysinavery
strongposition140millionpeople,$1.4trnGDP,nuclearweapons,andsoon.Butit'snotatanadvantageifit's
dealingwiththeEU,ortheWest.Sotheywanttoplaydivideandrule."

AsUSVicePresidentJoeBidenwarnedlastyear,"PresidentPutinseessuchpoliticalforcesasusefultoolstobe
manipulated,tocreatecracksintheEuropeanbodypoliticwhichhecanthenexploit."Theremarkablething,
however,istheconstellationofallies,oratleastsympathisers,Putinhasacquiredintheprocess.

InBritain,forexample,youhaveSeumasMilne,JeremyCorbyn'shard-leftconsigliereand(inhispreviouslifeasa
Guardiancolumnist)theloudestpro-RussianvoiceonFleetStreet.Butyoualsohaveright-wingfigureslikeNigel
FarageandMailcolumnistPeterHitchens:theywouldconsiderMilneaTrotandatraitor,butstilladmirePutin's
ruthlessstreak.EvenNickGriffin,formerheadoftheBNP,poppedupinMoscowlastyearataconferenceof
fringeracistmovementstoproclaimPutinthesaviourofChristendomagainsttheinfidelhordes.

"Youseethisleft-rightallianceallovertheplace,"saysLucas."InFranceyou'vegottheFrontNationalandyou've
gottheCommunists.InItalyyou'vegottheLeft,becausethey'reanti-American,andtheRight,whosaytheywish
theirleaderslovedtheircountrythewayPutinloveshis.InGermany,you'vegotDieLinke,theoldCommunistsand
WestGermanLefties,andAlternativfurDeutschland,whoarethenewright-wingparty.

"Butwhat'sreallystrikingtomeisthatyoualsohavewhatIcallthegreedymiddlebusinessmen,orpeople
likePeterMandelson,orthebigGermancompanies.Thesegroupsallhateeachother,buttheyallbelieveweneed
toresetrelationswithRussia."

Asfarasusefulidiotsgo,however,byfarthemostusefulisDonaldTrump.Trumphasalongandignoblehistoryof
sayingverynicethingsaboutthisverynastyman."Intermsofleadership,he'sgettinganA,"heoncesaid.Whenit
wasputtohimthatPutinhadjournalistsandpoliticalopponentskilledandinvadedhisneighbours,hereplied:"At
leasthe'saleader."
AmuralonarestaurantwalldepictingDonaldTrumpandVladimirPutingreetingeachotherwithakissinthe
LithuaniancapitalVilniusonMay13,2016.GettyImages

ButtheTrump-Putintiesgodeeperthanmererhetoric.AsaprofileinSlatepointsout,Trump'sbusinessesdepend
heavilyonRussianinvestors.Hislistofforeignpolicyadvisersisessentiallyalistofkooksandgadfliesunited
solelybytheirsympathyfortheKremlin.Andhisnewcampaignmanager,PaulManafort,spentnearlysevenyears
workingonbehalfofVictorYanukovych,Putin'sstoogeintheUkraine,aswellasothershadypro-Kremlin
billionairesfromtheregion.EvenbeforeTrumpsentshiversdowneasternEuropeanspinesbyrepudiatingNato's
principleofcollectivedefence,hiscampaignhadaftershowingnointerestwhatsoeverintheminutiaeofitsown
policyplatformintervenedspecificallytowaterdownRepublicansupportofUkraine.

ThefascinatingquestionhereiswhetherallofthisthefactthattheWestismanifestlyalessstable,secureand
unitedplacethanithasbeenforyearsisdowntoluckorjudgement.Inotherwords,towhatextentisPutin
merelyprofitingfromthechaosofourfracturedage,andtowhatextenthasheactivelystokedit?

Ifyouwereofaconspiratorialcastofmind,youcouldcertainlybuildupatrailofbreadcrumbs.TakeBrexit,for
example.InadditiontoNigelFarage'sownadmirationforBigVlad,therewastheLeave.EUmovementfoundedby
insurancetycoonArronBanks.Banks'swifeisRussian,andhasindeedbeenaccusedofbeingaspy,thoughwithout
muchevidence.(Toshowherwhathethinksoftheidea,heboughtherthelicenceplate"XMI5SPY"asaChristmas
present.)ButMrsBanksdidgethelpstayinginthecountryfromMikeHancock,thedisgracedLibDemMPwho
hadafour-yearaffairwithasuspectedRussianspy,andbowedonlytoSeumasMilneinhisadmirationforPutin.
AndthentherewasthefactthatMilneandCorbyn,despitetheoreticallybeingontheRemainside,seemed
determinedtosabotagetheirowncampaign...

HavinginterviewedBanks,itseemedprettyclearhisinterventioninthereferendumwasentirelyoutofpersonal
conviction.LikewiseCorbyn'slong-standingantipathytotheEU,whichheseesasaneo-liberaltoolforattacking
workers'rights.ButI'vestillheardwhispersinWestminsterthatPutinmight'must!'haveplayedsomekindof
roleintheBrexitcampaign,notleastbecauseofhowperfectlyitsuitedhispurposes,andhowdelightedheandhis
cronieswereabouttheresult.TheproblemisthatwhenitcomestotheKremlin'sactivities,thereare,asLucasputs
it,onlyafew"outcropsofclearfact"surroundedbymuchguessingandspeculation.

Intheend,theideaofPutinaspuppetmastercanbealmostacomfort.ItreassuresusthattheWest'stroublesits
economicvicissitudes,itspoliticalpolarisationarenotourownfault,butarevisiteduponusbyaruthless,
fiendishenemy.Thetruthis,wegotourselvesintothis.**WhatPutinisdoing,bystokingextremismanddivision,
isensuringthatit'sthatmuchhardertogetout.

RobertColvileisawriterandcommentatoronpoliticsandtechnology,andtheauthorof'TheGreat
Acceleration:HowtheWorldisGettingFaster,Faster'(Bloomsbury)

[**EDPOSTSCRIPT:AftertakingabitofaganderatDugin'sramblingbutperversely
illuminating"FoundationsofGeopolitics",yourtrulyhonestlybelievesthattheleft-right
wing-nutcoalitionweareseeingeverywherethesedayshadlittletodowiththeWest's
(oftenegregious)mistakesandeverythingtodowithawellplanned&lengthyRUIntel
DEZINFORMoperationDugin'smacabre"optimalwitch'smixofcollectivehatredsbased
onclass,race/nationandreligion(i.e.--leninism+fascism+jihadism)"---meantto
challenge,ifproperlyfused,theJudeo-Christiandemocratic(smalld)constructuponwhich
theWestisbased---hasbeeninplaysincethemid1990s.][Pleaseturnyourattentiontothe
itemsthatfollow]

FIRSTNOTE:

DUGIN'SWEBSITE:http://arctogaia.com/public/eng/

FOUNDATION:http://www.eurasianistarchive.com/category/book-projects/foundations-of-
geopolitics/

THENNOTEBELOWTWOMASTERFULSTUDIESOF/COMMENTARIESONOL'SASHA
DUGIN.FROMOUROWNCIRCLE:

Stanford'sJohnD(2004)&AFPC'sIlanB(2005)

AleksandrDugin'sFoundationsofGeopoliticsDunlop,JohnB.
Demokratizatsiya12.1(Jan31,2004):41.

JohnB.DunlopisaseniorfellowattheHooverInstitution.Hiscurrentresearchfocusesonthe
conflictinChechnya,Russianpoliticssince1985,Russiaandthesuccessorstatesoftheformer
SovietUnion,Russiannationalism,andthepoliticsofreligioninRussia.

OneperceptiveobserveroftheRussianpoliticalscene,FrancoiseThom,notedasfarbackas1994
thatfascism,andespeciallyits"Eurasianist"variant,wasdisplacingRussiannationalismamong
statistRussianelitesasapost-communist"RussianIdea,"especiallyintheforeignpolicysphere.
"TheweaknessofRussiannationalists,"sheemphasized,"stemsfromtheirinabilitytoclearly
situateRussianfrontiers.Euras[ianism]bringsanideologicalfoundationforpost-Soviet
imperialism."1

ThereprobablyhasnotbeenanotherbookpublishedinRussiaduringthepost-communistperiod
thathasexertedaninfluenceonRussianmilitary,police,andstatistforeignpolicyelites
comparabletothatofAleksandrDugin's1997neo-fascisttreatise,FoundationsofGeopolitics.
2Theimpactofthisintended"Eurasianist"textbookonkeyelementsamongRussianelites
testifiestotheworrisomeriseoffascistideasandsentimentsduringthelateYeltsinandPutin
periods.

Theauthorofthissix-hundred-pageprogramfortheeventualruleofethnicRussiansoverthe
landsextending"fromDublintoVladisvostok,"AleksandrGel'evichDugin,wasbornin1962,the
son,grandson,andgreat-grandsonofRussianmilitaryofficers.3Hisfatherissaidtohaveheld
therankofcolonel,and,accordingtoonesource,heservedinSovietmilitaryintelligence,inthe
GRU.4Byallaccounts,Duginwasabrightandprecociousyouthwithatalentforlearningforeign
languages.(Heissaidtohavemasteredatleastnineofthem.)Whilestillateenager,hejoineda
secretivegroupofMoscowintellectualsinterestedinmysticism,paganism,andfascism.Boththe
"masters"ofthisgroupandtheir"disciples"engaged,interalia,intranslatingtheworksofforeign
writerswhosharedtheirinterests.Asoneofhiscontributions,Dugincompletedatranslationofa
bookbytheItalianpagan-fascistphilosopherJuliusEvola.

DuginisreportedtohavebeendetainedbytheKGBforparticipatinginthisstudygroup,and
forbiddenliteraturewassubsequentlydiscoveredathisapartment.Accordingtooneaccount,he
thenwasexpelledfromtheMoscowAviationInstitute,wherehehadenrolledasastudentsome
timeinthelate1970s.Accordingtoanotheraccount,heeventuallymanagedtograduatefromthe
institute.5

In1987,duringGorbachev'ssecondyearofrule,Duginwasinhismid-twentiesandemergedasa
leaderofthenotoriousanti-SemiticRussiannationalistorganization,Pamyat',headedby
photographerDmitriiVasil'ev.Duringlate1988and1989,Duginservedasamemberofthe
Pamyat'CentralCouncil.

In1989,takingadvantageofincreasedopportunitiestovisittheWest,Duginspentmostofthe
yeartravelingtoWesternEuropeancountries.Whilethere,hestrengthenedtieswithleading
figuresoftheEuropeanNewRight,suchasFrenchmanAlaindeBenoistandBelgianJean-Francois
Thiriart.ThesecontactsledtoDugin's"belatedreconciliation"withtheUSSR,justasthatstatewas
approachingitsfinaldemise.Itappearsthat,largelyasaresultofthesecontactswiththe
EuropeanNouvelleDroite,Duginbecameafascisttheorist.OnthesubjectofDugin'sindubitable
fascistorientation,Stephen

Shenfieldhaswritten:"CrucialtoDugin'spoliticsistheclassicalconceptofthe'conservative
revolution'thatoverturnsthepost-Enlightenmentworldandinstallsaneworderinwhichthe
heroicvaluesofthealmostforgotten'Tradition'arerenewed.ItisthisconceptthatidentifiesDugin
unequivocallyasafascist."6

Bythebeginningofthe1990s,astheSovietUnionwasapproachingitscollapse,Duginbeganto
assumeamorehigh-profilepoliticalrole.Heformedanassociationwith"statistpatriots"inthe
communistcampandwas,forabriefperiod,closetotheGenadiiZyuganov,theleaderofthe
CommunistPartyoftheRussianFederation.AccordingtoStephenShenfield,Dugin"probably
playedasignificantpartinformulatingthenationalistcommunistideologythatwasZyuganov's
hallmark."7

In1991,theyearthatwitnessedtheendoftheUSSR,Duginmadetheacquaintanceofan
importantneo-fascistwriterwithtiestoelementsintheRussianmilitary,AleksandrProkhanov,
whosejournalDen'(subsequentlyrenamedZavtra),servedasakeysounding-boardforthe"red-
brownopposition."8Duginsoonemergedas"oneoftheleadingideologistsofDen'initsbest
period(1991-1992)."9

InJuly1992,Duginalsobegantoedithisownjournal,Elementy:evraziiskoeobozrenie,which
appearedtwiceyearly(lateronceayear)inaprintrunof5,000-10,000.Thejournal'stitlewas
borrowedfromthetheoreticaljournaloftheFrenchNewRight,Elements,editedbyAlainde
Benoist.ConcerningDugin'sjournal,AleksandrVerkhovskiiandVladimirPribylovskiihavenoted:
"InspeakingofElementy,oneshouldnotforgetthathalfofeachissueiscomprisedof
'geopoliticalnotebooks'containingarticlesabouttheglobaloppositionofvariouscivilizations,
primarilyRussiaandtheWest."10

Duringtheearly1990s,Duginfoundedhisownpublishinghouse,"Arktogeya."Thisnamewas
borrowedfromthepublishinghouseofGermanracistwriterGuidovonList(1848-1918).It
combinestheancientGreekwordsarktos(north)andgeaorgaia(land),areferencetothe
vanishedpolarcontinentthatwassupposedlytheoriginalhomeoftheAryans.11

In1991-1992,ProkhanovandDuginattemptedtoformanalliancebetweencertainleadersofthe
EuropeanNewRightandseveraldepartmentheadsandprofessorsattheAcademyoftheGeneral
StaffoftheRussianArmedForces.ThefirstissueofElementyin1992publishedthetranscriptof
anApril1992roundtable,heldonthepremisesoftheacademy,whichincludedLieutenantGeneral
NikolaiKlokotov,headoftheacademy'sstrategydepartmentLieutenantGeneralNikolaiPishchev,
deputyheadofthesamedepartmentMajorGeneralVladislavIminov,headoftheacademy's
departmentofmilitaryhistoryAlaindeBenoist,"theleaderoftheEuropeanNewRight"andJean
Lalou,anotherNewRightspokesman.12

ThecommanderoftheGeneralStaffAcademy,GeneralIgor'Rodionov,wasreportedtobe
"particularlywell-disposedtowardDugin,"andDugin'sideasevidentlycontinuedtoenjoyhis
supportoncehebecameRussianDefenseMinisterin1996-1997.13Itmaybesignificantthat
Dugin'sFoundationsofGeopoliticswaswrittenduringthetimethatRodionovwasservingas
defenseminister.14

TheGeneralStaffAcademyandGRU'sinterestingeopoliticsandEurasianismreachedbacksome
fortyyears."Beginninginthe1950s,"FrancoiseThornremarked,"SovietstrategistslikeGeneral
ShtemenkoandAdmiralGorshkovwereinspiredbyEurasianistthinking."15AsforDugin,he
singled

outMarshalNikolaiOgarkov,aSovietmilitarychiefofstaffintheearly1980s,as"anoutstanding
geopolitician,strategist,andEurasian."16

In1993,DuginjoinedhiseffortswiththoseofcharismaticdemagogueEduardLimonov(born
1943)andfoundedtheNationalBolshevikParty(NBP).AsVerk-hovskiiandPribylovskiihave
pointedout,"TheideologyoftheNationalBolshevikPartywasfullygeneratedbyoneman--
AleksandrDugin."17Limonovplayedtheroleofafascist-styleleader,andDuginservedassecond
incommandandtheparty'schieftheoretician.Theneworganizationappearstohavebeenmore
influencedbyGermanthanbyRussiannationalBolshevism.TheGermanNationalBolshevikErnst
Niekischhad"advocatedaGerman-RussianallianceagainsttheWest.IntheSovietUnion,
especiallyStalin'sSovietUnion,manyGermannationalists[likeNiekisch]sawthelogicalfulfillment
ofthewaragainst'Jewishcapitalism.'"18In1995,DuginranfortheRussianStateDumaona
NationalBolshevikplatformbutwasresoundinglyrejectedbyvoters,receivingamere0.85percent
ofthevote.19

In1997,DuginbrokewiththestormyLimonovandbegananoteworthypoliticalascent.Inthat
sameyear,hepublishedhisFoundationsofGeopolitics,oneofthemoreinfluentialworksofthe
post-communistperiod.ItappearstohavebeenwrittenwiththeassistanceofGeneralNikolai
KlokotovoftheGeneralStaffAcademy,whoservedasanofficialconsultanttotheproject.Colonel
GeneralLeonidIvashov,headoftheInternationalDepartmentoftheRussianMinistryofDefense,
alsomayhaveservedasanadviser.20Perhapsdueinparttosuchhigh-levelinput,"Dugin's
geopoliticalideas[asexpressedinFoundations]areclearlymuchmoreinfluentialthanarethe
othermoreopenlymysticalandesotericsidesofhisphilosophy."21

Duringthefollowingyear,Dugin'scareertookakeystepforwardwhenhewasnamedanadviser
ongeopoliticstoGennadiiSeleznev.Seleznevwaschairman(or"speaker")oftheRussianState
DumaandamajorplayerinRussianpolitics.(InJune2001,Seleznevwasrankedthetenthmost
influentialpoliticalfigureinRussiabyNezavisimayagazeta'spanelofexperts.22)Inthecourseof
aMarch1999radiointerview,SeleznevmadepublicthefactthatDuginwasservingasoneofhis
advisersand"heurgedthatDugin'sgeopoliticaldoctrinebemadeacompulsorypartoftheschool
curriculum."23Twoyearslater,atthefoundingcongressofthehew"Eurasia"movement,Dugin
boasted,"IamtheauthorofthebookFoundationofGeopolitics,whichhasbeenadoptedasa
textbookinmany[Russian]educationalinstitutions."Duringthesamecongress,the
aforementionedGeneralKlokotov--nowaprofessoremeritusbutonewhocontinuedtoteachat
theacademy--notedthatthetheoryofgeopoliticshadbeentaughtasasubjectattheGeneral
StaffAcademysincetheearly1990sandthatinthefutureitwould"serveasamightyideological
foundationforpreparinganew[military]command."24AtpresentDugin'sbookpresumablyis
beingusedasatextbookattheGeneralStaffAcademy.

In1999,Dugin'spublishinghousebroughtoutavolumeofwritingsbytheinterwaremigre
Eurasianwriter,PrinceNikolaiTrubetskoi.Inhisintroductiontothevolume,Duginwrotethat
Trubetskoi"canbetermedtheEurasianMarx."25ItseemedthatDuginsawasimilarexaltedrole
forhimselfastheformulatorofanew"RussianIdea"atthedawnofanewmillennium.

Sometimeinlate1999,Duginfounded"TheCenterforGeopoliticalExpertise"inMoscow.Inan
articleinZavtra,hespeculatedthatthisnewcentermightshortlybecome"ananalyticalinstrument
oftheEurasianPlatformfor,simultaneously,thePresidentialAdministration,theGovernmentofthe
RussianFederation,theCouncilofFederation,andtheStateDuma."26InlateMarchof2000,ina
secondZavtraarticle,DuginenvisionedanewrolefortheRussiansecretpolice(whichuntil
recentlyhadbeen

headedbythenewlyelectedRussianpresident,VladimirPutin).Whereasinhis1993book,
Konspiralogiya,Duginhadcriticizedthesecretpoliceforperceived"Atlanticist,"thatis,pro-
Americanandpro-Britishsympathies,henowtoastedtheKGB(theinitialshepreferredtoFSB)as
"anewcaste,anewsocialstratum"calleduponbothtoholdthelineagainst"American
hegemony"andto"recreateamightyEurasiansovereignstate"whichwouldincludealloftheCIS
republics.27

InAugust2000,afterreadinganarticleby"oneofthechiefideologistsofthe[Putin]Kremlin,"
GlebPavlovskii,DuginwrotePavlovskiisuggestingameeting.Pavlovskii,thecreatorofseveral
influentialpro-KremlinWebsites,agreed.Commentingonthisburgeoningrelationship,journalist
AndreiKolesnikovremarked:"Extremerightideologyisnotonlyturningintothedominantviewin
Russianpublicationsandstaterhetoric,itisalsobecomingfashionableinasalonsense."28

InNovember2000,shortlybeforeundertakingatriptoBrunei,PresidentPutindeclaredpublicly,
"RussiahasalwaysperceivedofitselfasaEurasiancountry."29Duginlatertermedthisstatement
"anepochal,grandioserevolutionaryadmission,which,ingeneral,changeseverything.The
prophecyof[Frenchconspiratologist]JeanParvulescohascometopass....Therewillbea
Eurasianmillennium."30

OnApril21,2001,Duginachievednewheightswiththefoundingcongressofthe"Pan-Russian
PoliticalSocialMovement'Eurasia.'"Holdingthiscongressunderscoredthecloserelationsthat
DuginhadformedwithpresentandespeciallyformermembersoftheRussianspecialservices.The
congresstookplaceinahallbelongingtothe"HonorandDignity"Club,agroupofveteransofthe
specialservicesandlawenforcementorganizations.Theheadoftheclub,VladimirRevskii,earlier
hadservedinVympel,aspecialoperationsunitattachedtotheFirstChiefDirectorateoftheKGB
(andlatertheSVR).Revskiiofficiallyopenedthecongressandlaterwaselectedtomembershipin
"Eurasia's"rulingbody,thePoliticalCouncil.

PetrSuslov,alsoaformerVympelmemberandaretiredcolonelintheSVRY,playedanevenmore
noteworthyroleatthecongress.Suslovservedasheadofthecommitteethatorganizedthe
congressandthenwaselecteddeputyleaderofthenewmovement(withDuginchosenasthe
leader).31DuringaJuly2001interview,SuslovconfidedthathewasagraduateoftheRyazan'
ParatroopSchoolwhohadthen"servedinthestructuresoftheKGB...inaunitwhichconducted
specialoperationsabroad."32Inthiscapacity,hesaid,hehadservedinAfghanistan,
Mozambique,Angola,Nicaragua,andVietnam.RetiringfromtheSVRin1995,hehadbecomea
consultantonissuesrelatingtotheCaucasusforDumaspeakerSeleznev,whichhadprovidedhim
withanopportunitytomeetDugin,whowasadvisingSeleznevongeopoliticalquestions.Thetwo
soonrealizedthattheyagreedonmanykeyissues.

WritingfortheGlebPavlovskii-sponsoredwebsite,SMI.ru,journalistGrigoriiOsterman
commented:"[Petr]SuslovhimselfenjoysbroadconnectionswithintheleadershipoftheFSB
(thereexistsinformationthatheisanexternalemployeeofthecentralapparatusoftheFSB),as
wellasinthePresidentialAdministration,bodiestowhichtheleaderof'Eurasia,'Dugin,alsohas
entree."33"Duginisalreadybeingperceived,"theweeklyObshchayagazetaobserved,"notasthe
preacherofanideologicalsectbutasanofficiallyrecognizedspecialistongeopoliticalquestions."
34

Inasimilarvein,theinvestigativeweeklyVersiyaobservedinlateMay2001:"Contactsbetween
Pavlovskiiand'Eurasia'actuallydooccur,butmostlikelyonthelevelofpersonalconsultations.
AleksandrDuginandtheheadofKremlinpolitico-technologyenjoygood,friendlyrelations."Under

VladimirPutin,thenewspapercontinued,Duginhadbecome"oneofthedraftersoftheconceptof
nationalsecurity."ItwasnotedthatDmitriiRyurikov,aleadingadvisertoPresidentYeltsinon
foreignaffairs,andcurrentlytheRussianambassadortoUzbekistan,hadagreedtobecomea
memberof"Eurasia's"CentralCouncil.Dugin'sneworganization,Versiyawenton,alsowas
engagedin"thepreparingofanalyticalreportsonforeignaffairsforthePresidential
Administration."Asforthefinancialsupportof"Eurasia,"thenewspaperwrote:"Thefinancial
supportofthemovementcomesthroughregionalorganizationsofthespecialservices.Andthis
support,accordingtooursources,isnotsmall.Moreover,notonlyfinancesareprovidedbutalso
'necessary'connections."35

Inhisaddresstothefoundingcongressof"Eurasia,"Duginexpressedhisgratitudeto"the
AdministrationofthePresidentoftheRussianFederation,"foritsassistance,beforealsothanking
theMoscowPatriarchate,theCentralSpiritualAdministrationfortheMuslimsofRussia,andother
organizations.36OnMay31,2001,theRussianMinistryofJusticeofficiallyregisteredthe
"Eurasia"movement,whichwasreportedtohavebranchesinfiftyregionsofRussia.37Inlate
June2001,"Eurasia"hostedanambitiousconference,provocativelytitled"IslamicThreatora
ThreattoIslam?"heldatthePresidentialHotelinMoscow.Thetitularco-chairmenofthe
conferencewereSeleznev(whodidnotattend)andSheikhTalgatTadzhuddin,theofficially
recognizedheadoftheMuslimsofRussiaandtheCISstates.38

Bysummer2001,AleksandrDugin,aneo-fascistideologue,hadmanagedtoapproachthecenter
ofpowerinMoscow,havingformedclosetieswithelementsinthepresidentialadministration,the
secretservices,theRussianmilitary,andtheleadershipofthestateDuma.Inaninterviewwiththe
KrasnoyarskdivisionofEkhoMoskvyRadioonJuly25,2001,Dugin,commentingonPutin'srole
attherecentG-8meetingsinGenoa,affirmed,"Itismyimpressionthatintheinternationalsphere
PutinissplendidlyrealizingtheEurasianpoliticalmodel."39FollowingtheSeptember11,2001
terroristincidentsinNewYorkCityandWashington,D.C.,Dugin'sopinionwassolicitedbyamajor
Russiannewspaper,alongwiththeviewsofthesecretaryoftheRussianSecurityCouncil,the
speakeroftheFederationCouncil,andvariousDumafactionleaders,whichtestifiestothe
perceivedinfluencethatDuginwieldsinpresent-dayRussia.40

SeveralRussianjournalistshaveunderscoredthatDugin-style"Eurasianism"meetsanumberof
politicalneedsinRussia.Abeliefintheprimacyoftherightsoftheindividualoverthoseofthe
state,journalistEvgeniiIkhlovwrote,wouldresultinthecontrolofcivilsocietyoverthestate.In
Russia,bycontrast,Ikhlovcontinued:

[O]urnewchiefstratumareincapableofrulingundersuchademocracy....[T]heystandinneedof
anattractivefoundationforanother,non-democraticmodel.HereEurasianismextraordinarilyfits
thebill.Itoffersthefollowing:anauthoritarian-charismatic(autocratic)modelselflessand
asceticalservingoftheregimeasthehighestformofvalor(themessianicgreatpowersyndrome)
theagreementofethnicandreligiousminoritiestoplayasubordinateroleandimperial
xenophobia.41

"WhatinducestheregimetoseekanewideologyinEurasianism?"journalistDmitriiRadyshevskii,
asked.Heanswered:"Here[inDugin-styleEurasianism]thereareideaswhichmeetthe
psychologicalneedsofsociety:thereisanalternativetothefailedloveaffairwiththeWestthere
isthe[Russian]traditionofmessianismandthereistheproximityofAsia....Theregimestandsin
needofanewideology,butofatraditionalone,'integralandgreat.'Allofthisishappilycombined
inEurasianism."42

TheGeopoliticsofDugin's1997Book

Dugin'smilitantviewsongeopolitics,asexpressedinhis1997"textbook,"presumablywillstrike
Westernreadersasbothcrudeandmad,representingaslightimprovementovertheravingsof
DumadeputyspeakerVladimirZhirinovskii.AlthoughDugin'sideasandprescriptionsareindeed
extreme,dangerous,andrepellent,itshouldbeemphasizedthattheyareverymuchinthe
traditionofthewritingsofinterwarfascistsandadherentsoftheEuropeanNouvelleDroite.
Historicallyspeaking,fascistthoughtmorethanoncehasresultedinexplosiveexpansionism.It
shouldbenotedthatDugindoesnotfocusprimarilyonmilitarymeansasawayofachieving
RussiandominanceoverEurasiarather,headvocatesafairlysophisticatedprogramofsubversion,
destabilization,anddisinformationspearheadedbytheRussianspecialservices,supportedbya
tough,hard-headeduseofRussia'sgas,oil,andnaturalresourcerichestopressureandbullyother
countriesintobendingtoRussia'swill.Duginapparentlydoesnotfearwarintheleast,buthe
wouldprefertoachievehisgeopoliticalgoalswithoutresortingtoit.

Drawingontheextensivetwentieth-centuryliteratureongeopolitics--andespeciallyontheinterwar
GermanschoolofKarlHaushofer--Duginpositsaprimordial,dualisticconflictbetween
"Atlanticism"(seafaringstatesandcivilizations,suchastheUnitedStatesandBritain)and
"Eurasianism"(land-basedstatesandcivilizations,suchasEurasia-Russia).43AsWayne
Allensworthnoted,onceonepenetratesbelowthesurfaceofDugin'sseeminglyrationaland
scholarlylanguageinFoundationsofGeopolitics,onerealizesthat"Dugin'sgeopoliticsaremystical
andoccultinnature,theshapeofworldcivilizationsandtheclashingvectorsofhistorical
developmentbeingportrayedasshapedbyunseenspiritualforcesbeyondman'scomprehension."
44InDugin'streatise,asAllensworthunderscores,theauthorhasappropriatedalmostwholesale
"theidea"ofBelgiangeopoliticianJeanThiriart,who"recognizedtheRussifiedSovietUnionasthe
finalbastionofcivilizationinaEuropeoverrunbyrootlessAmericanconsumerism."Thiriartearlier
hadadvocatedtheformationofanew"HolyAlliance"oftheUSSRandEuropeaimedat
constructinga"Euro-SovietEmpire,"whichwouldstretchfromVladivostoktoDublinandwould
alsoneedtoexpandtothesouth,"sinceitrequiredaportontheIndianOcean."45

TheGorbachevDebacle

TheGorbachevyears(1985-1991)represent,inDugin'seyes,oneofthemostwrenching
geopoliticaldefeatsinthemillennialhistoryofRussia-Eurasia-USSR.Beginningin1989,itbecame
clearthat"no-oneintheSovietleadershipwascapableofexplainingthelogicoftraditional
[Soviet]foreignpolicyand,asaresult,theretookplacethelightning-fastdestructionofthe
giganticEurasianorganism..."(95).46Unexpectedly,theUSSR"founditselfinalmostthesame
situationaspostwarGermany--itsworldinfluencereducedtonothing,itsterritorysharply
diminished,itseconomyandsocialspherereducedtoruins"(96).

DugincontendsthattheSovietdisasterof1989-1991,liketheearlierGermanone,resultedfroma
failureofthecountry'sleaderstoheedthecounselofitsgeopoliticians.Hitlerdisregardedthe
adviceofKarlHaushoferandotherspecialistswhenhedecidedtoinvadetheSovietUnionin
1941.Insimilarfashion,a"certainsecretdepartmentoftheGRU"andothervoiceshadbeen
advocatinga"Eurasian"coursefortheUSSR,buttheiradvicewentunheeded(103).

AsDuginseesit,the"project"thatWesternizingRussianreformersattemptedtoimplementduring
theGorbachevandYeltsinyearsbynowhasbeendiscreditedfully:"Thisprojectdeniessuch
valuesas

thepeople,thenation,history,geopoliticalinterests,socialjustice,thereligiousfactor,etc.Init,
everythingisconstructedontheprincipleofmaximaleconomiceffectiveness,ontheprimacyof
theindividual,onconsumerism,andthe'freemarket'"(179).

DuginbelievestheAtlanticists(especiallytheUnitedStates)consciouslyplottedthedownfallofthe
WarsawPactandtheUSSR."TheHeartlandthereforeisrequiredtopaybackSeaPowerinthe
samecoin"(367).Thegoal,asDuginseesit,istoresuscitateandreinvigorateEurasia/Russiaafter
thenear-fatalgeopoliticalblowsitabsorbedfrom1989to1991.

DuginemphasizesthatthecurrentRussianFederation,whichappearedin1991fromunderthe
rubbleoftheUSSR,isnotafull-fledgedstate,butrather"atransitionalformationinthebroadand
dynamicglobalgeopoliticalprocess"(183).Thenewstatesthathavecomeintoexistenceinthe
spaceoftheformerSovietUnionalsodonot,withthesoleexceptionofArmenia,possessany
markingsofauthenticstatehood(187).Insteadtheyrepresentartificial,ephemeralpolitical
constructs.

TheethnicRussianpeople,incontrast,areseenas"thebearersofauniquecivilization."47
Russiansareamessianicpeople,possessing"universal,pan-humansignificance"(189).The
Russianpeople,Dugininsists,canserveonlyasthecoreethnosofavastempire:"[T]heRussian
people(i.e.Russia)nevermadeitsgoalthecreationofamono-ethnic,raciallyuniformstate"
(190).Suchadistortedviewrepresents"theAtlanticistlinemaskingitselfas'Russiannationalism'"
(213).

"Arepudiationoftheempire-buildingfunction,"Duginwarnssternly,"wouldsignifytheendofthe
Russianpeopleasahistoricalreality,asacivilizationalphenomenon.Sucharepudiationwouldbe
tantamounttonationalsuicide"(197).Deprivedofanempire,Russianswill"disappearasanation"
(251).Thesoleviablecourse,inDugin'sview,isforRussianstoreboundfromthedebacleof
1989-1991byrecreatingagreat"supra-nationalempire,"oneinwhichethnicRussianswould
occupy"aprivilegedposition"(251-252).Theresultofsucharebuildingeffortwouldbe"agiant
continentalstateintheadministrationofwhichthey[Russians]willplaythecentralrole"(253).
Thisethnicmodel,Duginnotes,isquitesimilartothatoftheformerSovietUnion.

InordertofacilitatetherecreationofavastRussian-dominatedcontinentalempire,Dugin
advocatestheunleashingofRussiannationalistsentiment,butofaspecifictype."This[Russian]
nationalism,"hewrites,"shouldnotemploystatebut,rather,cultural-ethnicterminology,witha
specialemphasisonsuchcategoriesas'Narodnost"and'RussianOrthodoxy'"(255).Religious
sentiment,Duginurges,shouldbeplacedfrontandcenter:"Russiansshouldrealizethattheyare
Orthodoxinthefirstplace[ethnic]Russiansinthesecondplaceandonlyinthethirdplace,
people"(255).Thereisaneed,Dugininsists,forthe"totalchurchification"ofRussians,forthe
Russiannationtobecomeviewedsimplyas"theChurch"(255-256).Suchanemphasis,he
believes,should--togetherwithapersistentfocusonthegloriouspastandbrightfutureofthe
Russiannation--helpbringaboutthe"demographicupsurge"sodesperatelyneededbyRussians
today.Economicincentivesbythemselveswillproveinsufficienttopromotesuchanupsurge(256-
257).One"radical"slogan,Duginconcludes,mustbeconsistentlyputforward:"Thenationis
everythingtheindividualisnothing"(257).ThissloganencapsulatesoneofDugin'smost
cherishedbeliefs.

GuttingAtlanticism

Employingthe"strategyoftheAnaconda"(atermborrowedbyDuginfrominter-warGerman
geopoliticiansusedinreferencetoBritain),theUnitedStatesanditsclosealliesareseenas
exerting

unrelentingpressureonallEurasiancoastalzones(103,110).Followingpreceptsenunciatedby
FrancisFukuyamaamongothers,theUnitedStatesseekstoimplantitsownpoliticalandeconomic
modelthroughouttheglobe(127).Moreover,followingtheprescriptionsofPaulWolfowitz,the
UnitedStatesattemptstoreduceRussia'sroletothatofalowly"regionalpower"(199).Incynical
fashion,theUnitedStateswantsto"transformRussiaintoan'ethnicreservation'sothatitcan
receivefullcontrolovertheworld"(169).

HowisarevivedEurasian--Russianempiretobringabout"thegeopoliticaldefeatoftheU.S."
(260)?AnappropriateresponsetotheloomingAtlanticistthreat,Dugincontends,isforthe
renascentEurasian-Russianempiretodirectallofitspowers(shortofignitingahotwar),aswell
asthoseoftheremainderofhumanity,againsttheAtlanticistAnaconda."Atthebasisofthe
geopoliticalconstructionofthis[Eurasian]Empire,"Duginwrites,"theremustbeplacedone
fundamentalprinciple--theprincipleof'acommonenemy.'AnegationofAtlanticism,arepudiation
ofthestrategiccontroloftheUnitedStates,andtherejectionofthesupremacyofeconomic,
liberalmarketvalues--thisrepresentsthecommoncivilizationalbasis,thecommonimpulsewhich
willpreparethewayforastrongpoliticalandstrategicunion"(216).Theanti-Americanismofthe
Japanese,"whorememberwellthenucleargenocideandthedisgraceofpoliticaloccupation,"must
beunleashed,aswellastheferventanti-AmericanismoffundamentalistMuslimIranians(234,
241).Onaglobalscale,Dugindeclares,"themain'scapegoat'willbepreciselytheU.S."(248).

OnewayinwhichRussiawillbeabletoturnotherstatesagainstAtlanticismwillbeanastuteuse
ofthecountry'srawmaterialriches."Inthebeginningstage[ofthestruggleagainstAtlanticism],"
Duginwrites,"RussiacanofferitspotentialpartnersintheEastandWestitsresourcesas
compensationforexacerbatingtheirrelationswiththeU.S."(276).ToinducetheAnacondato
releaseitsgriponthecoastlineofEurasia,itmustbeattackedrelentlesslyonitshometerritory,
withinitsownhemisphere,andthroughoutEurasia."Alllevelsofgeopoliticalpressure,"Dugin
insists,"mustbeactivatedsimultaneously"(367).

WithintheUnitedStatesitself,thereisaneedfortheRussianspecialservicesandtheirallies"to
provokeallformsofinstabilityandseparatismwithinthebordersoftheUnitedStates(itis
possibletomakeuseofthepoliticalforcesofAfro-Americanracists)"(248)."Itisespecially
important,"Duginadds,"tointroducegeopoliticaldisorderintointernalAmericanactivity,
encouragingallkindsofseparatismandethnic,socialandracialconflicts,activelysupportingall
dissidentmovements--extremist,racist,andsectariangroups,thusdestabilizinginternalpolitical
processesintheU.S.Itwouldalsomakesensesimultaneouslytosupportisolationisttendenciesin
Americanpolitics"(367).

Dugin'sEurasianprojectalsomandatesattackingtheUnitedStatesthroughCentralandSouth
America."TheEurasianproject,"Duginwrites,"proposesEurasianexpansionintoSouthand
CentralAmericawiththegoaloffreeingthemfromthecontroloftheNorth"(248).48Asaresult
ofsuchunrelentingdestabilizationefforts,theUnitedStatesanditscloseallyBritaineventuallywill
beforcedtoleavetheshoresofEurasia(andAfrica)."TheentiregiganticedificeofAtlanticism,"
Duginprophesies,"willcollapse"(259).Hebelievesthatthiscouldhappenunexpectedly,as
occurredwiththesuddencollapseoftheWarsawPactandtheUSSR.Expelledfromtheshoresof
Eurasia,theUnitedStateswouldthenberequiredto"limititsinfluencetotheAmericas"(367).

TheMoscow-BerlinAxis

WithintheterritorialsprawlofEurasia,Dugin'sprogramfocusesontheformationofthreekey
axes:Moscow-Berlin,Moscow-Tokyo,andMoscow-Teheran.WithregardtothefutureofEurope,
Duginwrites:"ThetaskofMoscowistotearEuropeawayfromthecontroloftheU.S.(NATO),to
assistEuropeanunification,andtostrengthentieswithCentralEuropeundertheaegisofthe
fundamentalexternalaxisMoscow-Berlin.Eurasianeedsaunited,friendlyEurope"(369).In
advocatingthispath,DuginappearstobeinfluencedbythewritingsoftheEuropeanNewRight,
whichfromthe1970son,arguedfor"thestrictneutralityofEuropeanditsdeparturefromNATO"
(139).ThebasisoftheMoscow-Berlinaxis,Duginwrites,willbe"theprincipleofacommon
enemy[thatis,theUnitedStates]"(216).

InexchangeforcooperatingwithRussiainthisproject,DuginproposesthatGermanybegiven
back"Kaliningradoblast'(EasternPrussia)"(228).AsaresultofaGrandAlliancebetweenRussia
andGermany,thetwocountrieswilldivvyuptheterritorieslyingbetweenthemintodefacto
spheresofdominance.Thereistobeno"sanitarycordon.""ThetaskofEurasia,"Dugin
emphasizes,"consistsinmakingsuresucha[sanitary]cordondoesnotexist"(370).Russiaand
Germanytogether,heinsists,"mustdecidealldisputedquestionstogetherandinadvance"(226).

TheintegrationofswathsofWesternandCentralEuropeanterritoryintoaGermansphereof
dominancewillbeencourageddirectlyandabettedbyEurasia-Russia.Theformationofa"Franco-
Germanbloc"especiallyistobesupported(171)."InGermanyandFrance,'"Duginasserts,"there
isafirmanti-Atlanticisttradition"(369).Germany'sinfluencelikelywillspreadtothesouth--to
ItalyandSpain(220).OnlyBritain,"anextraterritorialfloatingbaseoftheU.S."istobecutoff
andshunned(221).

Movingeastward,DuginproposesofferingGermanydefactopoliticaldominanceovermost
ProtestantandCatholicstateslocatedwithinCentralandEasternEurope.The"unstable"stateof
Finland,which"historicallyentersintothegeopoliticalspaceofRussia"isseenasanexception
(316).Inthisinstance,DuginproposesthatFinlandbecombinedtogetherwiththeKarelian
AutonomousRepublicoftheRussianFederationintoasingleethnoterritorialformation"with
maximalculturalautonomy,butwithstrategicintegrationintotheEurasianbloc"(371-372).The
northernregionsofFinland,Duginadds,shouldbeexcisedanddonatedtoMurmanskoblast'.

OnthesubjectoftheBalticstates,DuginproposesthatEstoniaberecognizedaslyingwithin
Germany'ssphere.A"specialstatus,"ontheotherhand,shouldbeaccordedtobothLatviaand
Lithuania,whichsuggeststhattheyaretobeallocatedtotheEurasian-Russiansphere.Poland,
too,istobegrantedsucha"specialstatus"(372).

WithregardtotheBalkans,Duginassigns"thenorthoftheBalkanpeninsulafromSerbiato
Bulgaria"towhathetermsthe"RussianSouth"(343)."SerbiaisRussia,"asubheadinginthebook
declaresunambiguously(462).InDugin'sopinion,allofthestatesofthe"Orthodoxcollectivist
East"withtimewillseektoestablishbindingtiesto"MoscowtheThirdRome,"thusrejectingthe
snaresofthe"rational-individualisticWest"(389,393).ThestatesofRomania,Macedonia,
"SerbianBosnia,"andevenNATO-memberGreeceintime,Duginpredicts,willbecomeconstituent
partsoftheEurasian-RussianEmpire(346,383).
AsfortheformerunionrepublicsoftheUSSRsituatedwithinEurope,theyall,inDugin'sview,
(withtheexceptionofEstonia)shouldbeabsorbedbyEurasia-Russia."Belorussia,"Duginasserts
flatly,

"shouldbeseenasapartofRussia"(377).Insimilarfashion,Moldovaisseenasapartofwhat
Dugincalls"theRussianSouth"(343).

OnthekeyquestionofUkraine,Duginunderlines:"Ukraineasastatehasnogeopoliticalmeaning.
Ithasnoparticularculturalimportoruniversalsignificance,nogeographicuniqueness,noethnic
exclusiveness"(377)."Ukraineasanindependentstatewithcertainterritorialambitions,"hewarns,
"representsanenormousdangerforallofEurasiaand,withoutresolvingtheUkrainianproblem,it
isingeneralsenselesstospeakaboutcontinentalpolitics"(348).Andheaddsthat,"[T]he
independentexistenceofUkraine(especiallywithinitspresentborders)canmakesenseonlyasa
'sanitarycordon'"(379).However,aswehaveseen,forDuginallsuch"sanitarycordons"are
inadmissible.

DuginspeculatesthatthreeextremewesternregionsofUkraine--Volynia,Galicia,andTrans-
Carpathia--heavilypopulatedwithUniatesandotherCatholics,couldbepermittedtoforman
independent"WesternUkrainianFederation."Butthisareamustnotunderanycircumstancesbe
permittedtofallunderAtlanticistcontrol(382).Withtheexceptionofthesethreewesternregions,
Ukraine,likeBelorussia,isseenasanintegralpartofEurasia-Russia.

Atonepointinhisbook,Duginconfidesthatallarrangementsmadewith"theEurasianblocofthe
continentalWest,"headedbyGermany,willbemerelytemporaryandprovisionalinnature."The
maximumtask[ofthefuture],"heunderscores,"isthe'Finlandization'ofallofEurope"(369).

TheMoscow-TokyoAxis

ThecornerstoneofDugin'sapproachtotheFarEastliesinthecreationofa"Moscow-TokyoAxis."
InrelationtoJapan,heemphasizes,"theprincipleofacommonenemy[thatis,theUnited
States]"willprovedecisive(234).AsinthecaseofGermany,Japanistobeofferedanimperial
GrandBargain.DuginrecommendsthattheKurilesberestoredtoJapanasKaliningradistobe
restoredtoGermany(238).Forfutureexpansionpurposes,Japanistobeencouragedtoimpose
"itsown'neworder,'whichitplannedtocarryoutinthe1930s,inthePacificOcean"(277).

DuginnotesthatanotherimportantallyofEurasia-RussiawillbeIndia,which,likeJapan,willbe
invitedtojoinRussiaineffortstocontainandperhapsdismemberChina.ThetwoKoreasand
Vietnamalsowillbeinvitedtoparticipateinthiseffort(360).Mongoliaisseenasconstituting"a
strategicallyofRussia"andistobeabsorbeddirectlyintoEurasia-Russia(363).

LiketheUnitedStates,thePeople'sRepublicofChinaisseenasconstitutinganenormousdanger
forEurasia-Russia.OnceitrejectedMao'shealthypathof"peasantsocialism,"Chinasetabout
institutingeconomicreformsthathavebeenachieved"atthepriceofadeepcompromisewiththe
West"(232-233).China,inDugin'sperverseview,vergesuponbeinganAtlanticistfactotum.

Atseveralpointsinhisbook,DugingivesventtoafearthatChinamightatsometimeinthe
future"undertakeadesperatethrusttotheNorth--intoKazakhstanandEasternSiberia"(172).In
asectiontitled"TheFallofChina,"Dugindirectlywarns:"Chinaisthemostdangerousgeopolitical
neighborofRussiatotheSouth"(359).China,hemaintains,isadangertoRussiaboth"asa
geopoliticalbaseforAtlanticismandbyitself,asacountrywithheighteneddemographic
compactnessinquestof'noman'sland'"(360).

BecauseofthethreattoRussia'svitalgeopoliticalinterestsrepresentedbyChina,Duginholdsthat
thePRCmustbedismantled.Heunderlines:"Tibet-Sinkiang-Mongolia-Manchuriatakentogether
compriseasecuritybeltofRussia"(363).Eurasia-Russiamustseek,atallcosts,topromote"the
territorialdisintegration,splinteringandthepoliticalandadministrativepartitionofthe[Chinese]
state"(360)."WithoutSinkiangandTibet,"heconcludes,"thepotentialgeopoliticalbreakthrough
ofChinaintoKazakhstanandSiberiabecomesimpossible"(362).

As"geopoliticalcompensation"forthelossofitsnorthernregions,China,Duginrecommends,
shouldbeoffereddevelopment"inasoutherndirection--Indochina(exceptVietnam),the
Philippines,Indonesia,Australia"(363).TheseareasconstituteChina'sappropriatesphereof
dominance.

Itshouldbenotedthatinthelengthypostscriptsectionappendedtothe1999versionof
FoundationsofGeopolitics,DuginreaffirmshisbeliefintheneedforEurasia-Russiatoeffecta
dismemberingofChina(781).InaninterviewgivenbyDugininlateJuly2001,however,he
backedoffslightlyfromthisposition--presumablyindeferencetoPutin'sstatedpositiononChina-
-butonlytoadegree.HecontinuedtoinsistthatRussia'srelationswithJapan,Iran,andIndia
weremorevitalandsignificantthanthosewithChina.49

TheMoscow-TeheranAxis

ThemostambitiousandcomplexpartofDugin'sprogramconcernstheSouth,wherethefocal
pointisaMoscow-Teheranaxis."TheideaofacontinentalRussian-Islamicalliance,"hewrites,
"liesatthefoundationofanti-Atlanticiststrategy.[T]hisallianceisbasedonthetraditional
characterofRussianandIslamiccivilization"(158)."Onthewhole,"hecontinues,"theentire
IslamiczonerepresentsanaturallyfriendlygeopoliticalrealityinrelationtotheEurasianEmpire,
sincetheIslamictradition...fullyunderstandsthespiritualincompatibilityofAmericaandreligion.
TheAtlanticiststhemselvesseetheIslamicworld,onthewhole,astheirpotentialopponent"
(239).

AstheresultofanespeciallybroadGrandAlliancetobeconcludedwithIran,Duginmaintinsthat
Eurasia-Russiawillenjoytheprospectofrealizingacenturies-oldRussiandreamandfinallyreach
the"warmseas"oftheIndianOcean."InrelationtotheSouth,"hewrites,"the'geopoliticalaxisof
history'[Russia]hasonlyoneimperative--geopoliticalexpansiontotheshoresoftheIndian
Ocean"(341)."Havingreceivedgeopoliticalaccess--inthefirstplace,navalbases--ontheIranian
shores,"hewrites,"Eurasiawillenjoyfullsecurityfromthestrategyofthe'Anacondaring'"(241).
Eurasia-RussiaandtheEmpireofIran,heemphasizes,willhave"oneandthesamegeopolitical
tendency"(242).

AsaconsequenceofthisGrandAlliance,Eurasia-Russiashouldbepreparedtodivideupthe
imperialspoilswith"theIslamicEmpireintheSouth"(239).Afteraskingthequestion"Whatisthe
RussianSouth?"Duginclaimsthatitincludes"theCaucasus[allofit]""theeasternandnorthern
shoresoftheCaspian(theterritoriesofKazakhstanandTurkmeniya)""CentralAsia,including
Kazakhstan,Uzbekistan,KirgiziyaandTajikistan"plus"Mongolia."Eventheseregions,henotes,
shouldbeseen"aszonesoffurthergeopoliticalexpansiontothesouthandnotas'eternalborders
ofRussia'"(343)."ControlovertheCaucasus,"Duginnotesatonepointinthebook,"opens...an
exittothe'warmseas'"(349).

TheextensivestretchofterritorylyingtothesouthoftheRussianFederationistobedivviedup
withafutureIranianEmpireandwithArmeniaaswell."Aspecialgeopoliticalrole,"Duginwrites,
"isplayedbyArmenia,whichisatraditionalandreliableallyofRussiaintheCaucasus.Armenia
willserveasa

mostimportantstrategicbaseinthethwartingofTurkishaggressiontothenorthandtotheeast."
Itisnecessary,thereforetocreate"the[subsidiary]axisMoscow-Erevan-Teheran"(352)."The
Armenians,"Duginunderscoreswithapproval,"areanAryanpeople...[like]theIraniansandthe
Kurds"(243).

AzerbaijanrepresentsoneexampleofhowthetrioEurasia-Russia,Iran,andArmeniamightchoose
todivideupthespoils."IfAzerbaijan,"Duginwarns,"maintainsits[present]pro-Turkish
orientation,thenthat'country'willbesplitupamongIran,Russia,andArmenia.Almostthesame
holdstruewithregardtootherregionsoftheCaucasus--Chechnya,Abkhaziya,Dagestan,etc."
(243)."Itmakessense,"Duginwriteselsewhere,"tobindAzerbaijantoIran"(352).

AccordingtoDugin,Kazakhstanwillbeintegrated"intoacommoncontinentalblocwithRussia"
(354).Abkhaziya,too,willbetied"directlytoRussia"(351).Hespeculatesthata"unitedOsetiya"
alsomightbeincorporatedintoEurasia-Russia(351).AndasfortheremainingpartsofGeorgia?
DuginimpliesthatwhatremainsofthisOrthodoxChristiancountryafterRussiaabsorbsAbkhaziya
andSouthOsetiyamightbeturnedovertoIranasbooty,appropriatepunishment,presumably,for
itspricklyindependentcoursetowardRussiainthepost-communistperiod.

AccordingtoDugin,akeyreasonforconcludingaGrandAlliancewithIranisRussia'sneedfora
MuslimallyinitsstruggleagainstsecularTurkeyand"IslamicSaudiArabia"withitsdangerous
Wahhabism.TurkeyistobetreatedasharshlyastheUnitedStatesandChina."Itisimportant,"
Duginwrites,"totakeintoconsiderationthenecessityofaffixingtoTurkeytheroleof'scapegoat'
inthis[Eurasian]project"(244).Kurds,Armenians,andotherTurkishminoritiesaretobe
provokedintorebellion.Duginstressestheneedtocreate"geopoliticalshocks"withinTurkey
(352).LikeAzerbaijan,DuginpredictsthatTurkeycouldbedismemberedbyEurasia-Russia,Iran,
andArmeniainthefuture.Ifsuchadismembermentshouldnotoccur,however,Turkey,likeChina,
mustbeencouragedtoexpandexclusivelysouthward,"intotheArabworldthroughBaghdad,
Damascus,andRiyadh"(244).

Conclusion

Inamomentofexultantimperialelan,Duginrevealinglytrumpetsatonepointinhisbook,"The
battlefortheworldruleof[ethnic]Russianshasnotended"(213).Itisnecessarytospeakthe
unvarnishedtruth.AnofficialadviserongeopoliticstothespeakeroftheRussianDumaisa
dangerousRussianfascist.Ashasbeennoted,Duginalsoreportedlyenjoysclosetiestoelements
inthepresidentialadministration,thesecretservices,themilitary,andtheparliament.Although
Dugin'sinfluenceshouldnotbeexaggerated,italsoshouldnotbeunderstated.Oneisrequiredto
askwhetherRussianfascism--atendencywhichexhibitscontemptbothforinternationalborders
andforinternationallaw--hasarealisticchanceofemergingasthe"newpoliticalthinking"in
internationalaffairsinVladimirPutin'sRussia.Inlate1998,RussianacademicAndreiTsygankov
appropriatelywarnedthatthediscourseofDuginandoflike-minded"Eurasians"isinreality"the
discourseofwar."50

InterviewedbyajournalistfromthearmynewspaperKrasnyazvezdainMay2001,Duginpatiently
explained:"EurasianspaceistheterritoryofRussia,thecountriesoftheCISandapartofthe
adjacentterritoriestotheWestandtotheSouth,wherethereisnoclear-cutgeopolitical
orientation.AllofthiscomprisesEurasianstrategicspacebroadlyunderstood."51Thearmy
reporterofferednoobjectionstothisquitemadschema.

AleksandrDugin'sFoundationsofGeopolitics,tosummarize,representsaharshandcynical
repudiationofthearchitectureofinternationalrelationsthatwaslaboriouslyerectedfollowingthe
carnageoftheSecondWorldWarandtheemergenceofnuclearweapons.Duginandhis"system,"
itseems,resemblethecombustibleinterwarperiodandtheriseoffascisminEurope,withthelurid
imperialfantasiesoftheDuce,theFuhrer,andotherfascistdemagogues.Couldareversiontoa
destructivepastbethe"dividend"whichRussiaandtheWestaretoreceiveforhavingfinallyand
withenormouseffortputanendtothecoldwar?
NOTES

TheauthorwouldliketothankRobertOttoforgenerousandextremelyhelpfulbibliographicalassistance.ThanksalsotoGlenHowardforbringingseveralusefulbibliographicalitemstomy
attentionandtomyresearchassistants,JoyceCerwinandYuliyaShmeleva,fortheirfinework.

1.FrancoiseThom,"Eurasiansm:AnewRussianforeignpolicy?"UncaptiveMinds7,no.2(1994):76.

2.AleksandrDugin,Aleksandr.Osnovygeopolitiki:GeopoliticheskoebudushcheeRossii(Moscow:Arktogeya,1997).ThebookwasrepublishedwithoutchangebyDuginin1999,together
withlengthysupplementalmaterials--ofnogreatsignificance--appendedunderthetitleMyslit'prostranstvom.Myreferencesaretothe1997edition.

3.Unlessotherwiseindicated,thebiographicalinformationonDuginprovidedinthispapercomesfromStephenShenfield,RussianFascism:Traditions,Tendencies,Movements(Armonk,NY:
M.E.Sharpe,2001),190-220.

4.SeeMarinaLatysheva,Issledovatelitemnykhsilizdvizheniya'Evraziya'sdelalidlyaprezidentaanalaticheskiitsentrigotovyzamenit'MID.Versiya,May29,2001.

5.CharlesClover,"WilltheRussianbearroaragain?"FinancialTimes,December12,2000.

6.Shenfield,195.ForarepresentativesampleofDugin'stheoreticalfascistwritings,seeAleksandrDugin,Absolyutnayarodina(Moscow:Arktogeya,1999).

7.Shenfield,192.

8.OnProkhanov,seeJohnB.Dunlop,TheRiseofRussiaandtheFalloftheSovietEmpire,2d.ed.(Princeton,NJ:PrincetonUniversityPress,1995),169-177.

9.AleksandrVerkhovskiiandVladimirPribylovskii,Natsional-patrioticheskieorganizatsiivRossii(Moscow:Izdatel'stvo'Instituteksperimental'noisotsiologii,'1996),50.

10.Ibid.,51.

11.BerniceGlatzerRosenthal,TheOccultinRussianandSovietCulture(Ithaca,NY:CornellUniversityPress,1997),395.

12.See"Rossiya,Germaniyaidrugie,"Elementy,1(1992):22-25.

13.Shenfield,198.
14.Clover.
15.Thorn,67-68.
16.AleksandrDugin,Konspiratologiya(Moscow:Arktogeya,1993),115.17.VerkhovskiiandPribylovskii,50.

18.WayneAllensworth,TheRussianQuestion:Nationalism,ModernizationandPost-CommunistRussia(Lanham,MD:RowmanandLittlefield,1998),257.

19.Shenfield,194.
20.Clover.
21.Shenfield,199.
22."100vedushchikhpolitkovRossiiviyune,"Nezavisimayagazeta,July10,2001.23.Shenfield,197.

24.See"Stenogrammarabotyuchreditel'nogos'ezdaObshcherossiiskogoPoliticheskogoObshchestvennogoDvizheniya'Evraziya,'21aprelya2001,"athttp://eurasia.com.ru:8101/syezd.htm.

25.SeeAleksandrDugin,introductiontoNikolaiTrubetskoiNasledieChingizkhana(Moscow:AGRAF,1999),5-25.

26.AleksandrDugin"Evraziiskayaplatforma,"Zavtra,January21,2000.

27.AleksandrDugin"Zaryavsapogakh,"Zavtra,March31,2000.

28.AndreiKolesnikov"Poslepodvodnoilodki,"Izvestiya,August29,2000.

29.VladimirPutin,"Rossiyavsegdaoshchushchalasebyaevroaziatskoistranoi,"Strana.ru,November13,2000.

30.http://www.arctogaia.com/public/putin/htrr,May23,2001.
31.YaroslavaZabello"Evraziya--prevyshevsego?"Transkaspiiskiiproekt:informat-siono-

analaticheskiiserver,June13,2001.
32.PavelPolnyan"Sibir'otchenlyaetsyalegko,"MoskovskiikomsomoltsvKrasno-yarske,29,July18,

2001,http://arctogaia.krasu.ru/eurasia/dugin_krskl2.shtrr.
33.GrigoriiOsterman"Eslivakhkhabizmnesdaetsya,egoipravlyayut,"June28,2001,SMI.ru,.

34.AleksandrMaksimovandOrkhanKarabaagi."Onivsvoikhkorridorakh,"Obshchayagazeta,May31,2001.

35.Latysheva.
36."Stenogramma..."
37.Strana.ru,June4,2001.

38.TadzhuddinisrecognizedbyaminorityofthefortyMuslimadministrationsinRussia,buthecanboastof"notatallbadconnectionswiththe[Russian]specialservices,"withwhomhehas
beencooperatingsincetakinguphiscurrentpostin1980.SeeMaksimovandKarabaagi.ItshouldbenotedthatonJune19,2001,arivalorganizationof"Eurasians,"headedbystateDuma
deputyAbdul-VakhedNiyazov,heldafoundingcongressforanewEurasianPartyofRussia(EPR).NiyazovisanethnicRussian(formerlyVadimMedvedev),whoconvertedtoIslamin1996.
OnJuly26,2001,theEPR,withbranchesinseventyregionsofRussia,wasregisteredbytheRussianMinistryofJustice.DuginhasassailedthisrivalgroupasbeingwittingtoolsofSaudi
ArabiaandofWahhabism.Anumberofwell-knownleadersofMuslimbackgroundinRussiaandinCISstates,ontheotherhand,haveofferedsupportfortheEPR.Theseleadersinclude
AslambekAslakhanov,RamazanAbdulatipov,ChingizAitmatov,OlzhasSuleimenov,StanislavDerev,andMuftiAkhmadKadyrov.ThepresidentsofKazakhstan,NursultanNazarbaev,andof
Tatarstan,MintimerShaimiev,alsohaveindicatedadegreeofsupport.SeeNovyeizvestiiya(June30,2001andJuly27,2001)Nezavisimayagazeta(June8,2001andJuly31,2001)SMI.ru
(June19,2001)Moskovskiikomsomolets(August3,2001)andNG-religii(August8,2001).

39.AleksandrDugin"Interv'yudlya'EkhoMoskvy-Krsnoyarsk',"25iyulya2001,postedat:http://arctogaia.krasu.ru/eurasia/dugin_int_1.shtm.

40.See"Rossiyadolzhnauchest'oshibkiAmeriki,"Nezavisimayagazeta,September13,2001.ForDugin'stakeontheeventsofSeptember11,seehis"Lastochki
Apokalipsa,"http://arctogaia.com/public/lastochki.html,September12,2001.

41.EvgeniiIkhlov"Onivsvoikhkorridorakh:Dvestoronynovogoevraziistva,"Obshchayagazeta,August2,2001.

42.DmitriiRadyshevskii"Soblaznevraziistva,"Moskovskienovosti18,May1-14,2001.

43.Forausefulsurveyoftwentieth-centuryWesterngeopoliticalliterature,seeGeoffreyParkerWesternGeopoliticalThoughtintheTwentiethCentury(London:CroomHelm,1985).Chapter
fiveofParker'sbookisdevotedto"GermanGeopolitik."

44.Allensworth,249.45.Ibid.,251.

46.Hereandsubsequently,thepagenumbersgiveninparenthesesrefertothe1997editionofDugin'sbook.

IdeologueOfEmpire
byIlanBerman
WallStreetJournalEurope
November3,2005

Chancesare,you'veneverheardofAlexanderDugin.IntheU.S.andEurope,thesoft-spokenRussianpolitical
philosopherisstillverymuchamarginalfigure.ButwithinRussiaitself,the43-year-oldstrategisthasbecome
aninfluentialpoliticalforce.And,increasingly,hisradicalideasaboutareconstituted,anti-Westernempireare
makingtheirmarkonRussianforeignpolicy.

Mr.Dugin'spoliticalpastismiredincontroversy.Duringthe1980s,hereportedlyworkedasanarchivistfor
theKGB,wherehewasexposedto,andinfluencedby,theideasoftheearly"Eurasianists"--Russianthinkers
likeLevGumilyovwho,intheearly1900s,hadmodernizedandpopularizedtheideaofRussia'shistorical
destinyasanempire.Aone-timefascist,Mr.Duginjoinedforceswithcontroversialwriter/activistEduard
Limonovintheearly1990stoformtheNationalBolshevikParty(NBP),usingitasaplatformtoadvocatea
"conservativerevolution"pittingRussiaagainsttheWest.

Bythelate1990s,however,Mr.DuginhadbrokenwithMr.LimonovandtheNBPinpursuitofamorepuritan
politicalapproach.In1997,hegainedprominencewiththepublicationofhisseminalwork,"Osnovy
Geopolitike"(TheFoundationsofGeopolitics)--arambling,924-pagetreatiseadvocatingthere-creationofan
anti-WesternRussianempire.Init,Mr.DuginpostulatedthatRussiaandtheU.S.aredestinedforglobal
confrontation,andproposedaseriesofalliancesthroughwhichRussiacanachieveinternationaldominance.

Sincethen,Mr.Duginhasbegunputtingtheseprinciplesintopractice.In2000,hecreated"Eurasia,"asocio-
politicalmovementdedicatedtotherevivaloftheartofgeopolitics--andtotheideaofa"GreaterRussia"
stretchingfromtheMiddleEasttothePacific.Notsurprisingly,thegroup'sheadycocktailofmysticism,
religioussymbolismandgoodold-fashionedpoliticalpartisanshipfoundmorethanafewtakersamongRussians
disenchantedwiththeircountry'ssecond-rateeconomicandpoliticalstatus.(Today,accordingtoMr.Dugin,his
movementboastssome25,000membersinRussiaanditsso-called"nearabroad,"manyofthemcurrentand
formermembersoftheRussianintelligenceservicesandmilitary.)Twoandahalfyearslater,Mr.Dugin'sideas
wereformallyentrenchedinRussianpoliticaldiscoursewiththecharteringofhis"EurasiaParty,"apolitical
factiondeeplysupportiveofRussianPresidentVladimirPutin'sforeignpolicyline.

Overtheyears,Mr.Dugin'sinfluencehasebbedandflowedwiththecurrentsofRussianforeignpolicy.Before
September11th,hisideasaboutmultipolarityandanti-Americanismwereverymuchinvogueinthecorridors
oftheKremlin,withMr.DuginreportedlyservingasanunofficialadvisertoanumberofimportantRussian
defenseofficialsanddiplomats.ButinthewakeoftheterroristattacksonNewYorkandWashington,Mr.
Dugin'sstarwaned.AgainstthecounselofmanyinMoscow,PresidentPutinralliedtothesideoftheUnited
States,supportingthewaronterrorandtheU.S.offensiveagainsttheTalibanandalQaedainAfghanistan.

Gradually,however,Mr.Dugin'sphilosophyhasresurfaced,buoyedbyawaveofrenewednationalistsentiment
andimperialimpulses.IntheaftermathoftheU.S.-ledcampaignagainstSaddamHussein'sIraq,Washington's
cooperationwithMoscowhascooled,andtheKremlinhasrevertedtooldhabits.IntheMiddleEast,inlinewith
Mr.Dugin'sdictums,theRussiangovernmentisstubbornlynurturingitsnuclearcontactswithIran,aswellas
expandingarmssuppliestothebeleagueredregimeofSyriandictatorBasharAssad.InAsia,Moscowisdrifting
closertoChinainastrategicpartnershipthatMr.Duginhaspraisedasan"allianceintheheartofEurasia."
AndinCentralAsiaandtheCaucasus,theKremlinisgravitatingtowardanincreasinglyhostile,anti-American
foreignpolicystance,nervousovertherecentdemocratictransformationsthathavetakenplaceinGeorgia,
UkraineandKyrgyzstan.

Mr.Dugin,forhispart,isseizingthemoment.Thephilosopherhasprovidedmuch-neededintellectualcoverfor
thissummer'slandmarkRussian-Chinesemilitarymaneuvers,whichhaveelicitedseriousworriesintheWest.
Thistypeofaggressivemilitarycooperationisonlynatural,Mr.Duginexplains,becausebothcountriesare
threatenedbytherecentUkrainian,GeorgianandKyrgyz"colorrevolutions"--andbytheperceived
"Americanconnection"tothesetransformations.

Mr.DuginhasalsothrownhisweightbehindMoscow'seffortstooustAmericaninfluencefromthe"post-Soviet
space.""Anewstrategicblocistakingshapebeforeoureyes,"herecentlywrotewithadmirationinthe
newspaperVedomosti."TheAmericansarefirmlyresolvedtocontinuetheirpolicyinEurasia,"and"Russia's
salvation"lieswiththeShanghaiCooperationOrganization,aMoscow-andBeijing-ledregionalanti-Western
allianceencompassingmanyoftheformerSovietrepublics.

Athome,meanwhile,Mr.Duginischannelinghisenergiestowardthemobilizationofvariousnationalistforces.
Inrecentweeks,hisEurasiamovementhasspearheadedtherapprochementofvariousethnicandpolitical
groupsinRussiaandthenearabroad.Thegoal,accordingtoMr.Dugin,isthecreationofasweeping"Anti-
Orange"politicalfrontaimedatconfrontingthenew,pluralisticandpro-WesterngovernmentsinUkraineand
Georgia--andofpreventingsimilardemocraticinroadsinanincreasinglyauthoritarianRussia.

Asthesemaneuverssuggest,Mr.Dugin'svisionisxenophobic,antidemocraticanddeeplyanti-Western.
Alarmingly,italsoappearstobegainingseriousgroundinPutin'sRussia,whereauthoritariandriftand
oppositiontotheU.S.areagainbecomingtheorderoftheday.

From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/26/201605:00:25AM
To: ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>
Subject: APT28

http://observer.com/2016/07/wikileaks-dismantling-of-dnc-is-clear-attack-by-putin-on-clinton/
From: KyleWilson<krwilson66@icloud.com>
Senttime: 07/29/201605:15:43AM
To: DavidWall<dfrwall@gmail.com>
Subject: Fwd:160724(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutinWeaponizedWikileakstoInfluencetheElectionofanAmericanPresident

SentfrommyiPad

Beginforwardedmessage:

From:RodricBraithwaite<rqbraithwaite@mac.com>
Date:29July201610:03:38pmAEST
To:JulianCooper<j.m.cooper@bham.ac.uk>
Cc:StephenFortescue<s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au>,KlausSegbers<segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de>,KyleWilson
<krwilson66@icloud.com>,RobertHorvath<rghorvath@yahoo.com>,BoboLo<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>,
carolinavendilpallin<carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se>,ElizabethTeague<teagueeliza@aol.com>,"
<keith.bush017@gmail.com>"<keith.bush017@gmail.com>,RichardConnolly<R.Connolly@bham.ac.uk>,Philip
Hanson<phil_hanson@btinternet.com>,RodericLyne<rodericlyne@hotmail.com>,JohnBesemeres
<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>,FriedErc<ErcFried@aol.com>,SilvanaMalle<silvana.malle@univr.it>,DG
<davidjeglass@gmail.com>
Subject:Re:160724(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutinWeaponizedWikileakstoInfluencetheElectionofan
AmericanPresident

Icantkeepup.

However,ItOowasinRussiaatthetimeofthe1996election,intheweekbeforethesecondround.Isawacoupleof
Ziuganovsteamatthattime:Masliukov,Surikov,andthatamazingeconomistwomen-wasitKoryagina?Mystrong
impressionwasthat,despitetheirmansstrongshowinginthefirstround,theynotonlydidntexpecthimtowin-they
weaghastatthepossibilitythathemight.Theyobviouslyfearedthatwithvictorywouldcometheresponsibilityof
sortingthecountryout,andhadnoideahowtosetaboutit.

OnthedayofthesecondrounditselfwewerehavingdinnerwithPiontkovski.Iaskedhimifhedvoted.Hesaidhe
hadnt,becausehecouldntbeareithercandidate.Itoldhimheshoulddohiscivicduty,andthatthoughitwasntmy
businesstosayso,IthoughtheshouldvoteforYeltsin.Sohewentoutforawhile,andcamebacklatermumbling
somethingthatledmetobelieveheddonethat.MuchlaterIdiscoveredthathehadntbeennearthepollingboth.

FourorfivemonthsearlierGaidarandIhaddisagreedwhenwebothspokeatadinnerinLondon.Hewassayingthat
theendofcivilisationwouldoccurifZiuganovwon.IsaidthatIthoughtthatwasagreatexaggeration:indeeditmight
besalutaryifZiuganovwon,madeafoolofhimself,andsodemonstratedthattheCommunistswerenottheanswer:the
scenariowhichworkedinseveralEastEuropeancountries.GaidarsaidthatifZiuganovwon,hedmakesurethere
werenomoreelections.Whoknows?

AsforBobosdepressingviewofcurrentpoliticsthroughouttheworld,thatswhatyougetifyouwinaColdWar.IN
thiscountrythingsaresettlingdownunderMay:areliefafteraweekoflivinginabananarepublic.Itseemstomethat
thelatestfiascoisonemorestageinBritainsdeparturefromempire.Perhapswellendupasanormalcountry
(whateverthatmeans),withnomoreambitionstopunchaboveourweight.

On29Jul2016,at11:18,JulianCooper<j.m.cooper@bham.ac.uk>wrote:

Stephen

DontforgetthatitwasMedvedevwhofocusedattentionontheissueofthe1996presidentialelection
inancommentmadeataclosedmeetinginFebruary2012:
http://content.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2107565,00.html

Yes,theVoronezhmekhanicheskiizavod,amajorproducerofliquidfuelledrocketengines,thenand
now;afilialoftheKhrunichevstatespacescienceproductioncentreoftheRoskosmosstate
corporation.Alsoinvolvednowinimportsubstitutionactivitiesinthefieldofequipmentfortheoil
andgasindustry.

Julian#

From:StephenFortescue[mailto:s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au]
Sent:28July201623:00
To:segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de
Cc:JulianCooperRodricBraithwaiteKyleWilsonRobertHorvathBoboLocarolinavendilpallinElizabeth
Teague<keith.bush017@gmail.com>RichardConnollyPhilipHansonRodericLyneJohnBesemeresFried
ErcSilvanaMalleDG
Subject:Re:160724(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutinWeaponizedWikileakstoInfluencetheElectionofan
AmericanPresident

Klaus,
Interesting.Thanksforthat.Iwouldhavesuspectedsomethingfishywasgoingoniftheydidn'ttrytoget
youdrunk.Anumberofmywife'srelativescomefromVoronezh.Oneofthemwasthechiefengineerof
theVoronezhMekhanicheskiiZavod(Ithinkthat'sthename-anywaythebigdefenceplant),who
becametheheadofthelocalprivatisationagencyandhadalotofrespectforChubais.Idon'tremember
talkingtohimaboutYeltsin.Iimaginehewouldhavehadmixedfeelings,butnodoubtwhosesidehe
wouldhavebeenon.Heorganizedsomeinterestingmeetingsforme,whichImightgettheopportunityto
describesomeothertime-andyouyourkolkhoz.
Stephen

SentfrommyiPad

On28Jul2016,at22:59,prof.dr.klaussegbers<segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de>wrote:

atthattime,iwasanofficialelectionobserverinvoronezh'(city)andoblast'(irmemebera
colorfulkolkhoz).

theosceandeuroparliamentdelegationsdidn'thavehardevoidenceoffalsificationson
electionday.unlessyoutakeattemptstomakeforeignobserversdrunkobverversas
falsifications(icouldresisttheworst).

talkingaboutmediaimpactisadifferentstory.

mostrussiansitalkedtothendidn'thaveastronglikingforbne.slightlymoredisliked
zyuganov,though.also,weshouldn'tforgetthatthenbnewasn'ttheonestandingonthetank
infrontofthewhitehousebuttheonelettinghisdaughterandothersgrabstuff,andletting
korzhakovrunningthecountryforawhile,cumberezovskyietal..

themajorissueforthensuccessfulrussiansandmanywesternobserverswasnotthe
nationalismornostalgic'communism'ofzyuganovbutthecompleteinabilityofhis'team'to
continueinstitutionalreformsandintegratingthecountryintotheworld(whatwasonthe
agendathen,wemaycomparewithtoday,havingtearsinoureyes).

klaus

Am28.07.2016um14:43schriebStephenFortescue:
NodoubtvariousofuswillhavequibbleswithvariousthingsSimeshastosay.
I'vegotonequestion,Isupposeoflargelyhistoricalrelevance.It'shis
referencestothe'demonstrablyfraudulent'natureand'massiveelectoralfraud'
ofthe1996elections.Thesearecharacterizationsofthoseelectionsthatone
seeseverywherethesedays,indeedasiftheyareestablishedhistoricalfacts.Is
theclaimthatthecountingwassimplyfaked,andthatifthevoteshadbeen
countedascastZyuganovwouldhavewon?Ifthatistheclaim,isthere
evidence?It'sagenuinequestion-itmightwellexistandI'mjustnotawareof
it.IwasinRussiaatthetime,andIdon'trememberthenasenseofsurpriseor
disbeliefintheoutcome-butIguessImovedincirclesinwhichonewouldnot
haveexpectedscepticism.
I'mofcoursewellawareofthepointsSimesmakesaboutmediasupportfor
Yeltsinandsoon(andmaybethat'sallhemeansby'fraudulent').Iremember
theTVcampaigns-IrememberseeingYeltsin'sfamousdancingonstage-and
thereasonablyrelentlessdocumentariesontheevilsoftheSovietpast.Asfar
asIcouldtellthedocumentarieswereallhistoricallyaccurate,buttherewas
certainlysomethingaboutthetiming.Ialsoremember
Zyuganov'scampaign,whichgotenoughcoveragethatIwasawareofitandits
content,andmysenseatthetimewasthatYeltsin'sdancingwouldbemore
electorallyeffectivethanZyuganov'stimidlyandtediouslycrudenationalism.
AndIrememberthedealwithLebed,whichwasseenasgivingYeltsinabig
chunkofvotesinthesecondround.IhavetoadmitthatIhavenomemoryof
Yavlinskybeingaviablecandidateunderanyimaginablecircumstances.
Togetbacktomyquestion,isthereevidencethatYeltsinwontheelectionnot
throughhardcore,butthroughstraightdownthelineballot
boxstuffingandcountfalsification?
Stephen

SentfrommyiPad

On28Jul2016,at19:09,JulianCooper<J.M.COOPER@bham.ac.uk>
wrote:

Changingthesubjecttosomeextent,thelatestfromDimitri
Simes
http://nationalinterest.org/print/feature/russiaamerica
destinedconflict16726

Julian




From:StephenFortescue[mailto:s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au]
Sent:28July201600:24
To:segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de
Cc:RodricBraithwaiteJulianCooperKyleWilsonRobertHorvath
BoboLocarolinavendilpallinElizabethTeague
<keith.bush017@gmail.com>RichardConnollyPhilipHanson
RodericLyneJohnBesemeresFriedErcSilvanaMalleDG
Subject:Re:160724(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutinWeaponized
WikileakstoInfluencetheElectionofanAmericanPresident

Iagreewithyou-andMashaHessen.Ican'ttellfromherehow
bigallthisreallyisintheUScampaign,andwhyamIcommenting
onaplaceI'vebarelyevenvisitedinmylife,butiftheDemocrats
arerelyingontheRussiancardtogetthemovertheline,we've
gotabigproblemandifwethinkPutinisthesourceofallour
problems,we'vegotanevenbiggerproblem.
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad

On27Jul2016,at21:57,prof.dr.klaussegbers
<segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de>wrote:

stephen,ithinkit'snotsomuchabouttheKremlin
butaboutpoliticallygiftedclownssensing
opportunities.theyfeelhowmanypeopleareclue-
andhelplessfacingsocialandculturalchallenges
relatedtoglobalization.theypersonalizethese
feelingsprovidingforculprits('lockherup'),and
offeringsimplified(andmostlynotviable)solutions
('let'sbuildawall').thisisthelinkbetweenputin,
orban,erdogan,trump,xi(exploitingtheanti-elite
feelingsbypromotinganti-corruption)and,maybe,
natanyahu(inowlessaboutthelastone).


Am27.07.2016um13:34schriebStephen
Fortescue:
Iclaimnoexpertiseinthesematters
andI'mgoingjustontheevidence
containedinthevariousarticles
referredtointhiscorrespondence,but
itseemstomethatJuliaIoffehasgotit
rightregardingpossiblefinanciallinks
betweenPutinandTrump.The
evidenceisverythin-infactnonethat
anyRussianpartnersTrumpmighthave
areclosetoPutin.AsIoffepointsout,
Trump'slackofbusinesssuccessin
Russiawouldsuggestthelackofa
connection,ratherthantheotherway
around.Butbythesoundofithe
generallysenthissontoMoscow,so
maybehewasn'teventryingvery
hard.
Noneofthat'stosaythathedoesn't
presentaviewoftheworldwhichis
veryattractivetotheRussians,andthat
they'rehopefulthathe'llwin.Iknow
nomoreaboutcomputerhackingthan
abouthotelfinancing,butthatevidence
doessoundmoreconvincing,andwhy
wouldn'twebelieveit.
Idon'tknowhowbigallthisRussian
stuffisinthecampaign,butonecan't
helphavingthenastyfeelingthat
EstoniabeinginthesuburbsofSt
PetersburgandHilaryisawarmonger
mightbeattractivepropositionsto
morevotersthanIliketothinkabout.
HasanyoneintheUSmentioned,say,
China,theSouthChinaSeas,etc,or
aretheymattersofnoimport?
Onaslightlydifferentissue.Inthe
presidentialwebsitereportof
yesterday'sSecurityCouncilmeeting,
Putinissaidtohavereportedonthe
forthcomingvisitofErdogantoRussia
andPutin'stelephoneconversations
withErdoganandNetahanyu,allinone
sentenceandasiftheywerealllinked.
AmIgettingtooKremlinological,or
aretheyalllinked?
Stephen

SentfrommyiPad

On27Jul2016,at18:25,Rodric
Braithwaite
<rqbraithwaite@mac.com>wrote:

Idbeveryinterestedin
commentsontheJosh
Marshallarticle.

R


On26Jul
2016,at
09:42,Julian
Cooper
<j.m.cooper@bham.ac.uk>
wrote:

Another
view:
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the
hawks%E2%80%99
election
strategy
pushing
newcold
war17113

Julian


From:Kyle
Wilson
[mailto:krwilson66@icloud.com]
Sent:26
July2016
00:11
To:Robert
Horvath
BoboLo
Julian
Cooper
carolina
vendilpallin
<teagueeliza@aol.com>
<keith.bush017@gmail.com>
Richard
Connolly
PhilRoderic
&Mandy
LyneJohn
Besemeres
Klaus
SegbersFU
FriedErc
Rodric
Braithwaite
Stephen
Fortescue
SilvanaMalle
Cc:DG
Subject:Fwd:
160724
(DefOne/Tucker)
HowPutin
Weaponized
Wikileaksto
Influencethe
Electionofan
American
President

Sentfrom
myiPad

Begin
forwarded
message:

Sent
from
my
iPad

Begin
forwarded
message:

Date:26
July
2016
at
01:19:32
AEST
To:undisclosed-
recipients:
Subject:Fwd:
160724
(DefOne/Tucker)
How
Putin
Weaponized
Wikileaks
to
Influence
the
Election
of
an
American
President

for
whatever
it's
worth
...

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/trump-
putin-
yes-
it-
s-
really-
a-
thing

TPMEDITOR'S
BLOG

Trump
&
Putin.
Yes,
It's
Really
a
Thing

ByJOSH
MARSHALLPublishedJULY
23,
2016,
4:15
PM
EDT

Over
the
last
year
there
has
been
a
recurrent
refrain
about
the
seeming
bromance
between
Donald
Trump
and
Russian
President
Vladimir
Putin.
More
seriously,
but
relatedly,
many
believe
Trump
is
an
admirer
and
would-
be
emulator
of
Putin's
increasingly
autocratic
and
illiberal
rule.
But
there's
quite
a
bit
more
to
the
story.
At
a
minimum,
Trump
appears
to
have
a
deep
financial
dependence
on
Russian
money
from
persons
close
to
Putin.
And
this
is
matched
to
a
conspicuous
solicitousness
to
Russian
foreign
policy
interests
where
they
come
into
conflict
with
US
policies
which
go
back
decades
through
administrations
of
both
parties.
There
is
also
something
between
a
non-
trivial
and
a
substantial
amount
of
evidence
suggesting
Putin-
backed
financial
support
for
Trump
or
a
non-
tacit
alliance
between
the
two
men.

Let
me
start
by
saying
I'm
no
Russia
hawk.
I
have
long
been
skeptical
of
US
efforts
to
extend
security
guarantees
to
countries
within
what
the
Russians
consider
their
'near
abroad'
or
extend
such
guarantees
and
police
Russian
interactions
with
new
states
which
for
centuries
were
part
of
either
the
Russian
Empire
or
the
USSR.
This
isn't
a
matter
of
indifference
to
these
countries.
It
is
based
on
my
belief
in
seriously
thinking
through
the
potential
costs
of
such
policies.
In
the
case
of
the
Baltics,
those
countries
are
now
part
of
NATO.
Security
commitments
have
been
made
which
absolutely
must
be
kept.
But
there
are
many
other
areas
where
such
commitments
have
not
been
made.
My
point
in
raising
this
is
that
I
do
not
come
to
this
question
or
these
policies
as
someone
looking
for
confrontation
or
cold
relations
with
Russia.
Let's
start
with
the
basic
facts.
There
is
a
lot
of
Russian
money
flowing
into
Trump's
coffers
and
he
is
conspicuously
solicitous
of
Russian
foreign
policy
priorities.
I'll
list
off
some
facts.
1.
All
the
other
discussions
of
Trump's
finances
aside,
hisdebt
load
has
grown
dramatically
over
the
last
year,
from
$350
million
to
$630
million.
This
is
in
just
one
year
while
his
liquid
assets
have
also
decreased.
Trump
has
been
blackballed
by
all
major
US
banks.
2.
Post-
bankruptcy
Trump
has
been
highly
reliant
on
money
from
Russia,
most
of
which
has
over
the
years
become
increasingly
concentrated
among
oligarchs
and
sub-
garchs
close
to
Vladimir
Putin.
Here's
agood
overviewfromThe
Washington
Post,with
one
morsel
for
illustration
...
Since
the
1980s,
Trump
and
his
family
members
have
made
numerous
trips
to
Moscow
in
search
of
business
opportunities,
and
they
have
relied
on
Russian
investors
to
buy
their
properties
around
the
world.
Russians
make
up
a
pretty
disproportionate
cross-
section
of
a
lot
of
our
assets,
Trumps
son,
Donald
Jr.,
told
a
real
estate
conference
in
2008,
according
to
an
account
posted
on
the
website
of
eTurboNews,
a
trade
publication.
We
see
a
lot
of
money
pouring
in
from
Russia.

3.
One
example
of
this
is
the
Trump
Soho
development
in
Manhattan,
one
of
Trump's
largest
recent
endeavors.
The
project
was
hit
with
a
series
of
lawsuits
in
response
to
some
typically
Trumpian
efforts
to
defraud
investors
by
making
fraudulent
claims
about
the
financial
health
of
the
project.
Emerging
out
of
that
litigation
however
wasnews
about
secret
financing
for
the
project
from
Russia
and
Kazakhstan.
Most
attention
about
the
project
has
focused
on
the
presence
of
a
twice
imprisoned
Russian
immigrant
with
extensive
ties
to
the
Russian
criminal
underworld.
But
that's
not
the
most
salient
part
of
the
story.
As
theTimesput
it,
"Mr.
Lauria
brokered
a
$50
million
investment
in
Trump
SoHo
and
three
other
Bayrock
projects
by
an
Icelandic
firm
preferred
by
wealthy
Russians
in
favor
with
President
Vladimir
V.
Putin,
according
to
a
lawsuit
against
Bayrock
by
one
of
its
former
executives.
The
Icelandic
company,
FL
Group,
was
identified
in
a
Bayrock
investor
presentation
as
a
strategic
partner,
along
with
Alexander
Mashkevich,
a
billionaire
once
charged
in
a
corruption
case
involving
fees
paid
by
a
Belgian
company
seeking
business
in
Kazakhstan
that
case
was
settled
with
no
admission
of
guilt."
Another
suit
alleged
the
project
"occasionally
received
unexplained
infusions
of
cash
from
accounts
in
Kazakhstan
and
Russia."
Sounds
completely
legit.
Read
both
articles:
After
his
bankruptcy
and
business
failures
roughly
a
decade
ago
Trump
has
had
an
increasingly
difficult
time
finding
sources
of
capital
for
new
investments.
As
I
noted
above,
Trump
has
been
blackballed
by
all
major
US
banks
with
the
exception
of
Deutschebank,
which
is
of
course
a
foreign
bank
with
a
major
US
presence.
He
has
steadied
and
rebuilt
his
financial
empire
with
a
heavy
reliance
on
capital
from
Russia.
At
a
minimum
the
Trump
organization
is
receiving
lots
of
investment
capital
from
people
close
to
Vladimir
Putin.
Trump's
tax
returns
would
likely
clarify
the
depth
of
his
connections
to
and
dependence
on
Russian
capital
aligned
with
Putin.
And
in
case
you're
keeping
score
at
home:
no,
that's
not
reassuring.
4.
Then
there's
Paul
Manafort,
Trump's
nominal
'campaign
chair'
who
now
functions
as
campaign
manager
and
top
advisor.
Manafort
spent
most
of
the
last
decade
as
top
campaign
and
communications
advisor
for
Viktor
Yanukovych,
the
pro-
Russian
Ukrainian
Prime
Minister
and
then
President
whose
ouster
in
2014
led
to
the
on-
going
crisis
and
proxy
war
in
Ukraine.
Yanukovych
was
and
remains
a
close
Putin
ally.
Manafort
is
running
Trump's
campaign.
5.
Trump's
foreign
policy
advisor
on
Russia
and
Europe
isCarter
Page,
a
man
whose
entire
professional
career
has
revolved
around
investments
in
Russia
and
who
has
deep
and
continuing
financial
and
employment
ties
to
Gazprom.
If
you're
not
familiar
with
Gazprom,
imagine
if
most
or
all
of
the
US
energy
industry
were
rolled
up
into
a
single
company
and
it
were
personally
controlled
by
the
US
President
who
used
it
as
a
source
of
revenue
and
patronage.
That
is
Gazprom's
role
in
the
Russian
political
and
economic
system.
It
is
no
exaggeration
to
say
that
you
cannot
be
involved
with
Gazprom
at
the
very
high
level
which
Page
has
been
without
being
wholly
in
alignment
with
Putin's
policies.
Those
ties
also
allow
Putin
to
put
Page
out
of
business
at
any
time.
6.
Over
the
course
of
the
last
year,
Putin
hasaligned
all
Russian
state
controlled
media
behind
Trump.
As
Frank
Foerexplains
here,
this
fits
a
pattern
with
how
Putin
has
sought
to
prop
up
rightist/nationalist
politicians
across
Europe,
often
with
direct
or
covert
infusions
of
money.
In
some
cases
this
is
because
they
support
Russia-
backed
policies
in
others
it
is
simply
because
they
sow
discord
in
Western
aligned
states.
Of
course,
Trump
has
repeatedly
praised
Putin,
not
only
in
the
abstract
but
often
for
the
authoritarian
policies
and
patterns
of
government
which
have
most
soured
his
reputation
around
the
world.
7.
Here's
where
it
gets
more
interesting.
This
is
one
of
a
handful
of
developments
that
tipped
me
from
seeing
all
this
as
just
a
part
of
Trump's
larger
shadiness
to
something
more
specific
and
ominous
about
the
relationship
between
Putin
and
Trump.
As
TPM's
Tierney
Sneedexplained
in
this
article,
one
of
the
most
enduring
dynamics
of
GOP
conventions
(there's
a
comparable
dynamic
on
the
Dem
side)
is
more
mainstream
nominees
battling
conservative
activists
over
the
party
platform,
with
activists
trying
to
check
all
the
hardline
ideological
boxes
and
the
nominees
trying
to
soften
most
or
all
of
those
edges.
This
is
one
thing
that
made
the
Trump
convention
very
different.
The
Trump
Camp
was
totally
indifferent
to
the
platform.
So
party
activists
were
able
to
write
one
of
the
most
conservative
platforms
in
history.
Not
with
Trump's
backing
but
because
he
simply
didn't
care.With
one
big
exception:
Trump's
team
mobilized
the
nominee's
traditional
mix
of
cajoling
and
strong-
arming
on
one
point:changing
the
party
platform
on
assistance
to
Ukraine
against
Russian
military
operationsin
eastern
Ukraine.
For
what
it's
worth
(and
it's
not
worth
much)
I
am
quite
skeptical
of
most
Republicans
call
for
aggressively
arming
Ukraine
to
resist
Russian
aggression.
But
the
single-
mindedness
of
this
focus
on
this
one
issue
-
in
the
context
of
total
indifference
to
everything
else
in
the
platform
-
speaks
volumes.
This
does
not
mean
Trump
is
controlled
by
or
in
the
pay
of
Russia
or
Putin.
It
can
just
as
easily
be
explained
by
having
many
of
his
top
advisors
having
spent
years
working
in
Putin's
orbit
and
being
aligned
with
his
thinking
and
agenda.
But
it
is
certainly
no
coincidence.
Again,
in
the
context
of
near
total
indifference
to
the
platform
and
willingness
to
let
party
activists
write
it
in
any
way
they
want,
his
team
zeroed
in
on
one
fairly
obscure
plank
to
exert
maximum
force
and
it
just
happens
to
be
the
one
most
important
to
Putin
in
terms
of
US
policy.
Add
to
this
that
his
most
conspicuous
foreign
policy
statements
track
not
only
with
Putin's
positions
but
those
in
which
Putin
is
most
intensely
interested.
Aside
from
Ukraine,
Trump's
suggestion
that
the
US
and
thus
NATO
mightnotcome
to
the
defense
of
NATO
member
states
in
the
Baltics
in
the
case
of
a
Russian
invasion
is
a
case
in
point.
There
are
many
other
things
people
are
alleging
about
hacking
and
all
manner
of
other
mysteries.
But
those
points
are
highly
speculative,
some
verging
on
conspiratorial
in
their
thinking.
I
ignore
them
here
because
I've
wanted
to
focus
on
unimpeachable,
undisputed
and
publicly
known
facts.
These
alone
paint
a
stark
and
highly
troubling
picture.
To
put
this
all
into
perspective,
if
Vladimir
Putin
were
simply
the
CEO
of
a
major
American
corporation
and
there
wasthis
much
moneyflowing
in
Trump's
direction,
combined
withthis
much
solicitousnessof
Putin's
policy
agenda,
it
would
set
off
alarm
bells
galore.
That
is
not
hyperbole
or
exaggeration.
And
yet
Putin
is
not
the
CEO
of
an
American
corporation.
He's
the
autocrat
who
rules
a
foreign
state,
with
an
increasingly
hostile
posture
towards
the
United
States
and
a
substantial
stockpile
of
nuclear
weapons.
The
stakes
involved
in
finding
out
'what's
going
on'
as
Trump
might
put
it
are
quite
a
bit
higher.
There
is
something
between
a
non-
trivial
and
a
substantial
amount
of
circumstantial
evidence
for
a
financial
relationship
between
Trump
and
Putin
or
a
non-
tacit
alliance
between
the
two
men.
Even
if
you
draw
no
adverse
conclusions,
Trump's
financial
empire
is
heavily
leveraged
and
has
a
deep
reliance
on
capital
infusions
from
oligarchs
and
other
sources
of
wealth
aligned
with
Putin.
That's
simply
not
something
that
can
be
waved
off
or
ignored.

-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Forwarded
message
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
From:Don
KEYSER<dwkeyser@gmail.com>
Date:
Mon,
Jul
25,
2016
at
8:01
AM

http://www.defenseone.com/technology/2016/07/how-
putin-
weaponized-
wikileaks-
influence-
election-
american-
president/130163/?
&utm_term=Editorial%20-
%20Early%20Bird%20Brief

How
Putin
Weaponized
Wikileaks
to
Influence
the
Election
of
an
AmericanPresident
Evidence
suggests
that
a
Russian
intelligence
group
was
the
source
of
the
most
recent
Wikileaks
intel
dump,
which
was
aimed
to
influence
the
U.S.
election

July
24,
2016

By
Patrick
Tucker
Close
your
eyes
and
imagine
that
ahacking
group
backed
by
Russian
President
Vladimir
Putin
broke
into
the
email
system
of
a
majorU.S.political
party.
The
group
stole
thousands
of
sensitive
messages
and
then
published
them
through
an
obliging
third
party
in
a
way
that
was
strategically
timed
to
influence
the
United
States
presidential
election.
Now
open
your
eyes,
because
thats
what
justhappened.
On
Friday,
Wikileaks
published
20,000
emails
stolen
from
the
Democratic
National
Committee.
They
reveal,
among
other
things,thuggish
infighting,
a
push
bya
topDNCofficialto
use
Bernie
Sanders
religious
convictions
against
him
in
the
South,
and
attemptsto
strong-
armmedia
outlets.
In
other
words,
they
reveal
the
Washington
campaign
monster
for
what
itis.
But
leave
aside
the
purported
content
of
the
Wikileaks
data
dump
(to
which
numerous
other
outlets
have
devoted
considerable
attention)
and
consider
the
source.Considerable
evidence
shows
that
the
Wikileaks
dump
was
an
orchestrated
act
by
the
Russian
government,
working
through
proxies,
to
undermine
Hillary
Clintons
Presidentialcampaign.
This
has
all
the
hallmarks
of
tradecraft.
The
only
rationale
to
release
such
data
from
the
Russian
bulletproof
host
was
to
empower
one
candidate
against
another.
The
Cold
War
is
alive
and
well,
Tom
Kellermann,
theCEOof
Strategic
Cyber
Ventures
toldDefenseOne.
Heres
Subscribe
the
Receive
dailytimeline:On
June
email
14,
updates:
cybersecurity
Subscribe
to company
the CrowdStrike,
under
Defense
One
contract
with
daily.
theDNC,
Be announced
the in
firsta
to blog
post
receive
that
updates.
two
separate
Russian
intelligence
groups
had
gained
access
to
theDNCnetwork.
One
group,FANCYBEARorAPT28,
gained
access
in
April.
The
other,COZYBEAR,
(also
called
Cozy
Duke
andAPT29)
first
breached
the
network
in
the
summer
of2015.
Cybersecurity
company
FireEye
firstdiscoveredAPT29
in
2014
and
was
quick
to
point
out
a
clear
Kremlin
connection.
We
suspect
the
Russian
government
sponsors
the
group
because
of
the
organizations
it
targets
and
the
data
it
steals.
Additionally,APT29
appeared
to
cease
operations
on
Russian
holidays,
and
their
work
hours
seem
to
align
with
theUTC+3
time
zone,
which
contains
cities
such
as
Moscow
and
St.
Petersburg,
they
wrote
in
their
report
on
the
group.OtherU.S.officialshave
said
that
the
group
looks
like
it
has
sponsorship
from
the
Russian
government
due
in
large
part
to
the
level
of
sophistication
behind
the
groupsattacks.
Its
The
the
Cold
same
War
group
is
that
alive
hit
and
theState
well
Department,
Tom
the
Kellermann,CEOof
White
Strategic
House,
and
Cyber

the
Ventures

civilian
email
of
theJoint
Chiefs
of
Staff.The
groups
modus
operandi
(a
spearphishing
attack
that
uploads
adistinctiveremote
access
tool
on
the
targets
computer)
is
well
known
to
cyber-
securityresearchers.
In
hisblog
poston
theDNCbreachesCrowdStrikesCTODmitri
Alperovitchwrote
Weve
had
lots
of
experience
with
both
of
these
actors
attempting
to
target
our
customers
in
the
past
and
know
them
well.
In
fact,
our
team
considers
them
some
of
the
best
adversaries
out
of
all
the
numerous
nation-
state,
criminal
and
hacktivist/terrorist
groups
we
encounter
on
a
daily
basis.Their
tradecraft
is
superb,
operational
security
second
to
none
and
the
extensive
usage
of
living-
off-
the-
land
techniques
enables
them
to
easily
bypass
many
security
solutions
theyencounter.
The
next
day,
an
individual
calling
himself
Guccifer
2.0claimedto
be
the
culprit
behind
the
breach
and
released
key
documents
to
back
up
the
claim,writing:Shame
onCrowdStrike.
Related:What
the
Joint
Chiefs
Email
Hack
Tells
Us
About
theDNCBreach
Related:The
Ukrainian
Blackout
and
the
Future
ofWar
Crowdstrike
stood
by
their
original
analysis,
writing:
these
claims
do
nothing
to
lessen
our
findings
relating
to
the
Russian
governments
involvement,
portions
of
which
we
have
documented
for
the
public
and
the
greater
securitycommunity.
Other
security
firms
offered
independent
analysis
and
reached
the
same
conclusion.
The
group
Fidelis
undertook
theirown
investigationand
found
Crowdstrike
to
becorrect.
A
Twitter
user
named@PwnAlltheThingslooked
at
the
metadata
on
the
docs
that
Guccifer
2.0
provided
in
his
blog
post
and
found
literal
Russiansignatures.
His
findings
were
backed
up
by
Dan
Goodin
atArs
Technica.
Given
the
evidence
combined
with
everything
else,
I
think
its
a
strong
attribution
to
one
of
the
Russian
intelligence
agencies,
@PwnAllTheThingsremarked
toMotherboard.
Motherboardreporter
Lorenzo
Franceschi-
Bicchierai
actually
conversed
with
Guccifer
2.0
over
Twitter.
The
hacker,
who
claimed
to
be
Romanian,
answered
questions
in
short
sentences
that
were
filled
with
mistakes
according
to
several
Romanian
native
speakers,
Bicchierifound.
A
large
body
of
evidence
suggests
that
Guccifer
2.0
is
a
smokescreen
that
the
actual
culprits
employed
to
hide
their
involvement
in
thebreach.
That
would
be
consistent
with
Russian
information
and
influence
operations.
Russian
propagandists
have
been
caught
hiring
actors
to
portray
victims
of
manufactured
atrocities
or
crimes
for
news
reports
(as
was
the
case
when
Viktoria
Schmidt
pretended
to
have
been
attacked
by
Syrian
refugees
in
Germany
for
Russias
ZvezdaTVnetwork),
or
faking
on-
scene
news
reporting
(as
shown
in
a
leaked
video
in
which
reporter
Maria
Katasonova
is
revealed
to
be
in
a
darkened
room
with
explosion
sounds
playing
in
the
background
rather
than
on
a
battlefield
in
Donetsk
when
a
light
is
switched
on
during
the
recording),
notes
aRANDreportfrom
earlier
inJuly.
The
use
of
Wikileaks
as
the
publishing
platform
served
to
legitimize
the
information
dump,
which
also
containsa
large
amount
of
personal
informationrelated
to
democratic
donors
such
as
social
security
and
credit
card
numbers.
This
suggests
that
Wikileaks
didnt
perform
a
thorough
analysis
of
the
documents
before
they
released
them,
or
simply
didntcare.
Its
the
latest
installment
in
a
trend
that
information
security
researcher
Bruce
Schneier
callsorganizational
doxingand
that
Lawfares
Nicholas
Weaver
callsthe
weaponization
ofWikileaks.
The
most
remarkable
example
of
which,
prior
to
theDNCincident,
was
the
June
2015
the
publication
of
several
sets
ofNSArecords
related
to
government
intelligence
collection
targets
inFrance,Japan,BrazilandGermany.
The
data
itself
was
not
remarkable,
but
it
did
harmU.S.relations
and
may
have
compromisedNSAtradecraft.
Wikileaks
doesnt
seem
to
care
that
they
are
being
used
as
a
weapon
by
unknown
parties,
instead
calling
themselves
a
library
of
mass
education.
But
the
rest
of
us
should,Weaverwrites.
The
evidence
so
far
suggests
its
a
weapon
that
Putin
used
to
great
effect
lastweek.


--
klaussegbers
<gp-center-logo.jpg>
professorforpoliticalscience
director,centerforglobalpolitics
freeuniversityofberlin

garystr.55,d-14195berlin
phone+493083852088
fax+493083853616

urlhttp://www.global-politics.org
urlhttp://www.oei.fu-berlin.de/politik
urlhttp://www.segbers.eu

--
klaussegbers
<gp-center-logo.jpg>
professorforpoliticalscience
director,centerforglobalpolitics
freeuniversityofberlin

garystr.55,d-14195berlin
phone+493083852088
fax+493083853616

urlhttp://www.global-politics.org
urlhttp://www.oei.fu-berlin.de/politik
urlhttp://www.segbers.eu
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/25/201601:17:38PM
To: RobertOtto<OttoRC@state.gov>
WayneandStacyAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>chrisbort@gmail.comnathanielreynolds<naterey80@gmail.com>DonaldJensen
BCc:
<donald.jensen8@gmail.com>
Subject: FrolovDoesn'tBuytheTrumpasPutinAgentStuff(atall),buttheDNCHackisAnotherMatter

http://slon.ru/posts/71242

NewYork
Times,,
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(MakeAmericaGreatAgain)
,.
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 07/25/201612:07:52PM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[TRIPLEPLAYMISBEHAVIOR..OB-AD,TheDon,TheHilVladtheBadHavingaBall]Fwd:FPIBulletin:WhiteHousePlansNuclear
Subject:
PolicyReversals[OHBOY!!AsRUgetsmoreaggressive,weshrinkthenukearsenal?].[Yur/S-CA/ConservativesendsKristolpi

From:wolodymyrzarycky[mailto:wzarcusur@gmail.com]
Sent:Monday,July25,201611:38AM
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:[TRIPLEPLAYMISBEHAVIOR..OB-AD,TheDon,TheHilVladtheBadHavingaBall]Fwd:FPIBulletin:WhiteHousePlans
NuclearPolicyReversals[OHBOY!!AsRUgetsmoreaggressive,weshrinkthenukearsenal?].[Yur/S-CA/ConservativesendsKristol
pie...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:ForeignPolicyInitiative<info@foreignpolicyi.org>
Date:Mon,Jul25,2016at11:05AM
Subject:FPIBulletin:WhiteHousePlansNuclearPolicyReversals
To:walter<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

FollowandSupportFPI

FPIBulletin:WhiteHousePlansNuclearPolicyReversals

ByFPIPolicyDirectorDavidAdesnik

OnJuly10,theWashingtonPostreportedthatPresidentObamasnationalsecurityteamhadbeguntoassembleadisarmamentagendaforthe
Presidentsfinalmonthsoffice.Bydesign,theagendaconsistedofinitiativesthatthePresidentcouldimplementwithoutcongressionalapproval
eventhoughsomeentailedbreakingpledgesmadetoCongressinpreviousyears.ThisconcernledtheHouseArmedServicesCommitteeto
summonkeyadministrationofficialsforahearingonnuclearpolicy,whichlaidbarethefaultlinesonthisissuebetweentheWhiteHouseandthe
Pentagon.Althoughhesitanttospeakdirectlytointernaldebates,seniormilitaryleadersbelievethatthecredibilityoftheU.S.nucleardeterrent
couldbediminishedbythepoliciesthatarenowgainingtractionattheWhiteHouse.

HintsofaWhiteHouseReversal

InaJune6addresstotheArmsControlAssociation,DeputyNationalSecurityAdvisorBenRhodesgavethefirsthintsofaturnaboutonnuclear
policy.Rhodestoldtheaudience,IcanpromiseyoutodaythatPresidentObamaiscontinuingtoreviewanumberofwayshecanadvancethe
Pragueagendaoverthecourseofthenextsevenmonths.Putsimply,ourworkisnotfinishedontheseissues.Sevenyearsago,PresidentObama
deliveredamajoraddressinthecapitaloftheCzechRepublic,wherehesaid,ToputanendtoColdWarthinking,wewillreducetheroleof
nuclearweaponsinournationalsecuritystrategywewillbegintheworkofreducingourarsenal.

AttheArmsControlAssociation,Rhodestouchedanervebysuggestingthepossibilityofsubstantialreductionstothenuclearweapons
budget.Inmid-June,SenateArmedServicesChairmanJohnMcCain(R-AZ)andForeignRelationsChairmanBobCorker(R-TN)sentaletterto
PresidentObamawarninghimthatbudgetcutswouldviolatehis2010agreementwiththeSenate,whichentailedacommitmenttoprovidefull
fundingforthemodernizationoftheU.S.nucleararsenalinexchangeforSenateratificationoftheNewSTARTtreatywithRussia.

ItsoonbecameapparentthatSenatorsonbothsidesoftheaislesharedtheapprehensionofthetwocommitteechairmen.OnJuly8,fourteen
SenatorssignedalettertotheSecretaryofDefenseexpressingtheiruneasewithrecentstatementsbystaffmembersoftheNationalSecurity
CouncilthatquestionthenuclearmodernizationagendaandthreatentounderminethePentagonscommitmenttotheagendasimplementation.
SignatoriesincludedSen.TimKaine(D-VA)andSen.JackReed(D-RI),therankingmemberoftheArmedServicesCommittee.

Inadditiontopotentialbudgetcuts,theWashingtonPostidentifiedseveralotherdisarmamentinitiativesunderconsiderationattheWhiteHouse.
Theyincludedthecancellationofaprogramtoreplaceagingcruisemissiles,afive-yearextensionoftheNewSTARTagreement,UNapprovalof
theunratifiedComprehensiveTestBanTreaty(CTBT),andapublicpledgethattheUnitedStateswouldneverusenuclearweaponsunless
anothernationusedthemfirst.

ACongressionalSpotlightonNuclearPolicy

Knowingthatseniormilitaryleadershaveseriousreservationsabouttheseoptions,theHouseArmedServicesCommitteeaskedthemtotestify
onJuly14,inordertoraisepublicawarenessofthetensionbetweentheapparentWhiteHouseagendaandthebestadviceofthosedirectly
responsibleforthenucleardeterrent.WhatthehearingdemonstratedisthatPentagonleadersarewaryofinvolvementinpoliticizeddebates,yet
preparedtoalertlawmakersandthepublictotheirconcernsaboutthecredibilityandreliabilityoftheU.S.deterrent.

Ontheissueoffundingforthenucleartriad,AdmiralCecilHaney,headofU.S.StrategicCommand,saidthatthePresidentsproposedbudgetfor
2017supportsmymissionrequirements.Butletmebeclear,thereisnomargintoabsorbnewrisk.Inotherwords,cuttingthebudgetwouldbe
irresponsible.

Whenaskedabouttheadvisabilityofanofirstusepolicy,AdmiralHaneysignaledhisconcernbyinsistingacarefulreviewwouldhaveto
precedeanychanges.Ifanofirstusepolicywereproposed,hesaid,Thatwouldrequiresomescrutinytomakesurewearenotgoingtoimpact
strategicstability.WhenaskedifanofirstusepolicywouldlimittheoptionsavailabletothePresidentinacrisis,Haneyrespondedthathis
generalapproachismakingsureIcanmaximizepresidentialdecisionspaceandoptions.

AdmiralHaneyandtheotherwitnessespreferredabolderapproachwhenaddressingthemeritsofcurrentplanstobuildanewcruisemissile
knownastheLongRangeStand-Offweapon,orLRS-O.GeneralRobinRand,theheadofAirForceGlobalStrikeCommand,describedthecurrent
versionoftheair-launchedcruisemissile(ALCM)asa10-yearmissileinits30t hyearwhichwillbeincreasinglyvulnerabletoenemyair
defenses.AdmiralHaneyofferedhisassessmentthatfieldingLRS-Oasareplacementwillhelptodeterescalationduringfutureconflictswhile
reassuringallieswhodependontheU.S.nuclearumbrella,becausethedeploymentofnuclear-capablecruisemissilesisavisiblesignofresolve,
whereassubmarinesarenot.

GeneralRandalsospokeforcefullyabouttheneedtoreplacetheMinutemanIII,theagingmainstayoftheintercontinentalballisticmissile(ICBM)
force.RandobservedthattheMinutemanIIIiscominguponits50t hyearinservice.AlthoughopponentsofanewICBMhaveproposedan
efforttoextendtheservicelifeoftheMinutemanIII,Randdismissedthatoptionasunwiseongroundsofbothcostandeffectiveness.Hesaid
anewICBMwouldbemorereliableandmoresurvivableaswellascostingjustslightlylessthanalifeextensionfortheMinutemanIII.

RobertScher,theAssistantSecretaryofDefenseforStrategy,Plans,andCapabilities,revealedsubstantiallylessabouthisopinionsthanthe
militarymenonthepanel,yetevenScherhintedathisreservationsoncertainpoints.Whenaskedwhethertheadministrationwouldextendthe
NewSTARTtreatydespiteRussiasflagrantviolationofotherarmscontrolpacts,Schersimplysaid,Idonotknowtheanswer.Whenasked
whetheranyoneelseknewtheanswer,Scherresponded,Thereareongoingdiscussions,asyouveheard,butIreallyamnotatlibertytotalk
aboutongoingdiscussionsbeforedecisionshavebeenmade.

ScheralsosaidthathecouldnotdisclosethecontentofdiscussionsaboutbypassingSenateratificationofCTBTyetacknowledgedthathehad
anticipatedthequestion,sincethetoparmscontrolofficialattheStateDepartmenthadpreviouslyassuredthecommitteethattheSenates
prerogativeswouldberespected.Furthermore,SchertestifiedthathehadcontactedthatsameofficialpriortohistestimonybeforetheHouseand
shestandsbythestatementsthat[seekingaUNresolutiononCTBT]wouldtakeawaytheprerogativeoftheSenateforratifyingtreated.In
effect,SchersentamessagethatboththePentagonandtheStateDepartmentopposedanyefforttobypasstheSenate,evenifsomeintheWhite
Housefavoredthatapproach.

Finally,whenaddressingLRS-O,Schersimplygavehisunqualifiedopinionthatfieldinganupdatednuclear-capablecruisemissileiscriticalto
U.S.nationalsecurity.Thepreviousday,atahearingfocusedentirelyonLRS-O,Scherelaboratedhisargumentsonbehalfofthemissileprogram
ingreaterdetail.SeniorofficialsfromtheDepartmentsofStateandEnergyexpressedstrongagreement.Onthisparticularissue,WhiteHouse
skepticsseemtohavefewalliesevenwithintheadministration.

WhatWillPresidentObamaDecide?

TheWashingtonPostreportedthattheWhiteHousehasconvenedtwoCabinet-levelmeetingstoreviewapotentialdisarmamentagendaforthe
Presidentsfinalmonthsinoffice.Nofinaldecisionshavebeenmade,thepapersaid,butObamaisexpectedtoweighinpersonallysoon.
WhenthePresidentfinallyweighsin,heshouldkeepinmindthe2010letteronnuclearmodernization,inwhichhepledgedtotheSenatethatmy
AdministrationwillpursuetheseprogramsandcapabilitiesforaslongasIamPresident.Alast-minutecancellationofmissilereplacement
programsorabidtocutthenuclearweaponsbudgetwouldviolatethispledge.SeekingUNapprovaloftheCTBTwouldbreakaseparatepromise
theadministrationmadetoCongress.ThedecisiontoextendNewSTARTshouldbemadebythenextpresident,sincetheextensionwouldrun
throughtheendofhisorhertenure.

Moreimportantly,thereisnostrategicjustificationforanyoftheinitiativestheWhiteHouseisapparentlyconsidering.Nucleardangershave
onlyintensifiedsincethePresidentunveiledhisPragueagenda.TestifyingbeforetheHouse,RobertScherdescribedRussianeffortstolowerthe
thresholdforemployingnuclearweaponsasparticularlyconcerninganddangerous.Yeteachandeveryoneoftheinitiativesunder
considerationbytheWhiteHouseprimarilyconstrainstheUnitedStatesandlessensthecredibilityofitsnucleardeterrentwhilefailingtoreinin
theprovocationsofhostilenuclearweaponstates.SevenyearsafterPresidentObamaunveiledhisPragueagenda,itremainsunclearwhetherhe
haslearnedthatAmericanconcessionscannotreducethethreatofnuclearwarifRussia,China,NorthKoreaandothersremainfirmlycommitted
togrowingandmodernizingtheirarsenals.

AbouttheForeignPolicyInitiative

FPIisanon-profit,non-partisan,tax-exemptorganizationunderSection501(c)(3)oftheU.S.InternalRevenueCode.FPIseekstopromotean
activeU.S.foreignpolicycommittedtorobustsupportfordemocraticallies,humanrights,astrongAmericanmilitaryequippedtomeetthe
challengesofthe21stcentury,andstrengtheningAmerica'sglobaleconomiccompetitiveness.Theorganizationwasfoundedin2009andisledby
ExecutiveDirectorChristopherGriffin.FPIsBoardofDirectorsconsistsofEricEdelman,RobertKagan,WilliamKristol,andDanSenor.Visitour
websiteatwww.foreignpolicyi.orgformoreinformation.

IfyousupportFPI'smission,pleaseconsidermakingatax-deductibledonationtoday.

TheForeignPolicyInitiative Telephone:(202)296-3322
11DupontCircle,NWSuite325 E-mail:info@foreignpolicyi.org
Washington,D.C.20036 VisitOurWebsite
Tounsubscribe,clickhere DonatetoFPI

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:YuriShymko<yurishymko7@gmail.com>
Date:Sun,Jul24,2016at11:05PM
Subject:PutinsinfluenceoverUSpolitics
To:

ExcellentarticlebyWilliamKristolcallingonRepublicanleaderstoinvestigateTrump'sconnectiontoPutin.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/putins-party/article/2003473

Putin'sParty?
7:00AM,JUL24,2016|ByWILLIAMKRISTOL
GageSkidmore

DonaldJ.Trumpisthepresidentialnomineeofthe
Republicanparty.Butthatdoesnotabsolveevery
Republicanofficeholder,donor,andactivistfromthe
responsibilityofsatisfyinghimselfthatitisrighttosupport
thatnomineeforpresident.Thereare,inmyjudgment,many
reasonstodoubtthisisthecase.Butonereasonin
particularhasn'treceivedsufficientconsideration:Thefact
thatTrumpandhistopcampaignaidehavemanytroubling
connectionswithVladimirPutin'sregime.

HonestandpatrioticRepublicanswhosupportTrump,oraretemptedtodoso,shouldreview
someofthepubliclyavailableevidence.Trump'sbusinessseemstobeheavily
dependentonRussianinvestment.Histopcampaignadvisor,PaulManafort,wastheadvisorto
thePutin-backedstoogeViktorYanukovich,andhasdeeptiestothePutinapparat.Oneof
Trump'snationalsecurityadvisors,retiredLt.GeneralMichaelFlynn,waspaidtogiveaspeechat
aRussianpropagandacelebrationandwasseatednexttoPutin.Trump'sRussiaadvisorCarter
Page,whodoesmuchofhisbusinesswithRussiancompanies,hasargued,amongotherthings,
that"afewofficialsinWashington"annexedUkraineandthatthe"so-calledannexation"ofCrimea
byRussiawasarationalresponsetothisinjustice.

Furthermore,practicallytheonlychangeTrump'scampaignmadetotheGOPplatformwasto
weakenlanguagesupportingUkraine.Wikileaks,whichappearstohaveconnectionstoPutin's
espionageapparatus,hasreleasedemailsthataredamagingtoHillaryClintonimmediatelybefore
theDemocraticconvention.Trumpheartilyapprovesofthisinterferencebyaforeignpowerinan
Americanelection.TheyapparentlyintendtodothesamewithemailshackedfromClinton
Foundationservers.Finally,Trump,tothecheersoftheKremlinestablishment,hassaidhewillnot
upholdourNATOcommitments.

TheseindicationsprovidesufficientgroundsforTrump'slinkstoPutintobefurtherinvestigated.
PoliticianswhoarecurrentlysupportingTrumpshouldwithdrawtheirunconditionalsupport"until,"
asMr.Trumpmightsay,"wecanfigureoutwhat'sgoingon."Onethingthatwouldhelpusfigure
outwhat'sgoingonisifTrumpandManafortreleasedtheirtaxreturns.Theyofcoursehaven't
doneso.Indeed,it'sstrikingthatneitherseemseventohaveputhiscurrentbusinessinterestsin
anykindofblindtrust.Sowedon'tknowhowdirectandcloseafinancialrelationshipTrumpand
ManaforthavewiththePutinregime.

IfTrumpandManafortdon'tacttoallaytheseconcernsbyreleasingtheirtaxreturns(orinother
ways),wouldn'titbeadvisableforaRepublicanmemberofCongresstoleadanurgent
investigationintowhetherPutinisinterferinginthecurrentAmericanelection?Trumpand
ManafortmaybePutin'schumps.WillotherRepublicanssitbyasthewholeRepublicanparty
becomesPutin'sparty?

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:@hunter
Date:Mon,Jul25,2016at10:03AM
Subject:CybersecurityExpertsSayRussiaHackedtheDemocrats
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

WAZ:IftheRussianshackedarelativelysecureDNCsite,whatdoyouthinktheydidtoHilary'sunsecuredserver?H

NYTimesHintsPutinMayHaveLeaked
DNCEmailstoAidTrump

(APPhoto/AlexBrandon)ByMarkSwanson|Monday,25Jul201610:46AM

AfterFriday'sleakof20,000stolenemailsfromtheDemocraticNationalCommittee,thesecondofitskindinthreemonths,The
NewYorkTimesranastorysuggestingalinkfromthehackstoRussiaPresidentVladimirPutintoaidDonaldTrump.

WhathadbeenquietinnuendohasevolvedintotheKremlin'sroleinthehackandleakandwhetherPutinhasanactiverolein
influencingtheelectioninfavorofTrump.

TheemaildumponFridayhasembarrassedDemocratsafterexposingleadership'sdealingswithBernieSandersandledtothe
swiftresignationannouncementofDemocraticNationalCommitteeChairwomanDebbieWassermanSchultz.

U.S.cybersecurityfirmshavefoundtheDNCbreachwasdonebythesameRussianintelligencehackerstheyfoundlodgedin
sensitivegovernmentagencyserversbefore,andthoughadirecttracebacktoanyonespecificisnearlyimpossible,it'senoughto
emboldenclaimsofconspiracytheoriesfromtheleft.

HillaryClintoncampaignmanagerRobbyMooktooktotheSundaymorningtalkshowcircuittoclaimtheRussiansarehelping
DonaldTrump,aHailMarydenouncedandridiculedbyTeamTrump,theTimesreported.

ButbetweentherepeatedhitonDemocrats,Trump'spublicrespectforRussiaPresidentVladimirPutin,hisanti-NATOremark
lastweek,andcampaignmanagerPaulManafort'stiestotheformerRussian-backedleaderofUkraine,there'senoughintriguefor
aspynovel.

ButwhatimpactithasthisweekontheDemocraticconventionespeciallywithSanderssupportersinPhiladelphiaandon
theelectionissomethingthathastobemanaged.Andquestionsaregettingasked.

ManafortonSundaywasaskedbyABCdirectlyifthereareanytiesbetweenTrumpandPutin.

"No,therearenot,"ManafortwasquotedbytheTimes."That'sabsurd.And,youknow,there'snobasistoit."

RelatedStories:

DebbieWassermanSchultztoStepDownasDNCChairAfterConvention
ClintonCampaignManager:RussiansBehindLeakedDNCEmails

2016Newsmax.Allrightsreserved.

http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/russia-democrat-dnc-debbie-wasserman-
schultz/2016/07/25/id/740274/#ixzz4FRgB00wJ

CybersecurityExpertsSayRussia
HackedtheDemocrats
256 JULY25,20166:46AMEDT By

EliLake

IstheKremlintryingtothrowtheU.S.presidentialelectiontoDonaldTrump?Itsoundslikesomethingoutof
aspynovel.Butmanycybersecurityexperts,aswellastheHillaryClintoncampaign,arenowsayingthe
Russiansareresponsibleforlastmonth'shackoftheDemocraticNationalCommittee.

ThathackhasdominatedthenewscycleontheeveoftheDemocraticconvention,andforgoodreason.
TheemailsdisclosedFridaybyWikiLeaksareembarrassing.TheyshowDNCchairwoman,Debbie
WassermanSchultz,plottingtounderminethecampaignofSenatorBernieSanders,confirmingtheworst
suspicionsoftheleftflankoftheparty.SheresignedherpostonSunday.

Butthebiggerissueiswhowasresponsibleforthehackinthefirstplace.BobGourley,aformerchief
technologyofficerfortheDefenseIntelligenceAgencyandnowtheco-founderandpartnerCognitio,a
cybersecurityconsultancy,toldmeSundaythathethinkstheRussiansdidit.

"ThesoftwarecodethatIhaveseenfromthehackhadallthetelltalesignsofbeingRussian,includingcode
re-usedfromotherattacks,"Gourleytoldme."Thisisareallybigdeal.Somepeopleinthecommunityare
sayingthisistheRussianspretendingtobeahacker,thengivingthatinformationtoJulianAssangeisall
partofanoperation."(AssangefoundedWikiLeaks.)

Gourleyisnotaloneamongcybersecurityexperts.WhenthehackoftheDNCwasfirstdisclosedinJune,
thesecurityfirmCrowdstrikealsopointedtotheRussians.Crowdstrikeinvestigatedtheincidentforthe
DemocraticpartyandconcludeditwasthesameactorthatpenetratedtheStateDepartment,WhiteHouse
andPentagonunclassifiedsystemsin2015.Describingthecodeusedforthepenetrationinablogpost,
Crowdstrikeco-founderDmitriAlperovitchwrote:"Bothadversariesengageinextensivepoliticaland
economicespionageforthebenefitofthegovernmentoftheRussianFederationandarebelievedtobe
closelylinkedtotheRussiangovernmentspowerfulandhighlycapableintelligenceservices."

Overtheweekend,theTrumpandClintoncampaignstradedaccusationsontheissue.

ClintoncampaignmanagerRobbieMooktoldABCNewstheexpertsconsultedbythecampaignsaiditwas
Russia.PaulManafort,whorunstheTrumpcampaign,respondedthatthiswas"pureobfuscation."

ThetechnicalcaseforattributingtheDNChacktoRussiarestsinthesimilarityofthecodefoundonthe
committeesserverstootherhacksbelievedtohaveoriginatedinRussia.Gourleyacknowledgesthoughthis
isn'tfoolproof."ItcouldbesomehackerinagarageinFloridafoundthiscodeandre-usedit,"hesaid."But
historicallythebadguysre-usetheirowncodealot."

ThereisalsoacircumstantialcasethattheRussiansarebehindthehack.Tostart,ViceMagazine's
MotherboardchannelgotholdoftheallegedRomanianhacker,Guccifer2.0,whohasclaimedcreditforthe
cyberskullduggery.ThehackerwasaskedtodescribehishackinRomanianandcouldn'tstringtogethera
coherentsentenceinthelanguage.

Thenthereisthequestionofwhobenefits.WhileClintonimplementedaresetinrelationswithRussiawhen
shewassecretaryofstate,shehassincesouredonMoscow.WhenRussianirregularsinvadedUkrainein
2014,shecomparedPutintoHitler.

Trumpontheotherhandhasbuckedhisparty'sRussiahawks.HehassaidhewouldonlyaidNATOstates
iftheypaidtheirfairshareofthedefenseburdeninEurope.UntilTrump,noRepublicanpresidential
nomineehasquestionedtheU.S.mutual-defensecommitmentenshrinedinNATO.

DevinNunes,theRepublicanchairmanoftheHousePermanentSelectCommitteeonIntelligence,toldme
thatitwasinRussianpresidentVladimirPutin'sinterestfor"theDemocratstokeeppoweroverforeign
policyandtohaveHillaryClinton--architectoftheRussiaresetpolicythatopenedthedoorforPutin's
aggressionthroughouttheglobe--becomepresident."Headded:"That'swhyIlikethisparticular
conspiracytheoryeventhoughIdon'tbelieveit--itwouldmeanPutinisfarlessintelligentthanIthought,
andthatwouldbecomfortingtome."

MikeVickers,aformerundersecretaryofdefenseforIntelligenceandaClintonsupporter,disagrees."I
thinkallsignspointtocyberactorswithtiestoRussianIntelligence,hetoldmeonSunday.Whatis
unprecedented,itseemstome,istheuseofthesetoolsforcovertpoliticalinfluenceagainsttheUnited
Statesduringapresidentialgeneralelection."

Thatindeedwouldbeunprecedented.TheRussiansoperateRT,anEnglish-languagetelevisionnetworkthat
givesairtimeto9/11conspiracytheoristsandotheranti-Americanviews.IftheRussiansarebehindthe
DNChack,itwouldbeanewtacticthatcombinesthestate'sovertinfluenceoperationswithitscovert
cyber-spying.

MikeFlynn,whoservedasDefenseIntelligenceAgencydirectorbetween2012and2014andisanadviser
totheTrumpcampaign,toldmehewouldn'tbesurprisediftheRussianswerebehindtheDNChack.Both
ChinaandRussiahavethefullcapabilitytodothis,"hesaid."IfsomeoneweretofindoutRussiadidthisI
wouldnotbesurprisedatall."Flynnsaid,however,thattherealproblemisthatthereisverypoor
informationsecurityforU.S.politicalpartiesandcampaigns."Thisisanotheremailscandalforthe
Democraticparty,"hesaid.

Thereissomethingtothis.LastyearagroupcalledtheOnlineTrustAlliancesurveyedmajorpresidential
campaignwebsitesandfoundthatonlysixmetbasicstandardsforsecurity,privacyandconsumerdata
protection.

PartoftheproblemisthattheFederalElectionCommissiondoesnotimposebasiccybersecurity
standardsforpoliticalpartiesandcampaignsthewaytheFederalTradeCommissiondoesforU.S.
businesses."Bynothavingaregulatorthathastheauthoritytoinvestigatethecampaignsandthedata
securitypracticesofpoliticalparties,itwasonlyamatteroftimebeforeacampaignornationalpartywas
hacked,"ChrisSoghoian,thechieftechnologistfortheAmericanCivilLibertiesUniontoldme.

Inthissense,theproblemofRussianhackingmaybebipartisan.InMay,DirectorofNationalIntelligence
JamesClappersaidtherewereindicationsofhacksagainstboththeTrumpandClintoncampaigns.

Thismaybetrue,butsofaronlytheDemocratshaveseentheirpilferedemailsmadepublic.Inthatsenseit
looksliketheRussiansareplayingfavoritesinAmericanpolitics,somethingtheKremlinhasaccusedthe
U.S.ofdoingtoRussiaforthelast100years.

ThiscolumndoesnotnecessarilyreflecttheopinionoftheeditorialboardorBloombergLPanditsowners.

Tocontacttheauthorofthisstory:
EliLakeatelake1@bloomberg.net

Tocontacttheeditorresponsibleforthisstory:
TobinHarshawattharshaw@bloomberg.net

From: teagueeliza@aol.com
Senttime: 07/29/201606:25:59AM
To: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: Fwd:160724(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutinWeaponizedWikileakstoInfluencetheElectionofanAmericanPresident

Dagestangetsamention

-----OriginalMessage-----
From:BoboLo<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>
To:BoboLo<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>RodricBraithwaite<rqbraithwaite@mac.com>JulianCooper<j.m.cooper@bham.ac.uk>
CC:StephenFortescue<s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au>KlausSegbers<segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de>KyleWilson
<krwilson66@icloud.com>RobertHorvath<rghorvath@yahoo.com>carolinavendilpallin<carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se>Elizabeth
Teague<teagueeliza@aol.com><keith.bush017@gmail.com><keith.bush017@gmail.com>RichardConnolly
<R.Connolly@bham.ac.uk>PhilipHanson<phil_hanson@btinternet.com>RodericLyne<rodericlyne@hotmail.com>John
Besemeres<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>FriedErc<ErcFried@aol.com>SilvanaMalle<silvana.malle@univr.it>DG
<davidjeglass@gmail.com>SiriolHugh-Jones<siriolhj@yahoo.co.uk>
Sent:Fri,29Jul201614:17
Subject:Re:160724(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutinWeaponizedWikileakstoInfluencetheElectionofanAmericanPresident

Uponconsultingtheinternet,IseethatYeltsinscored53.8percentofthesecond-roundvote,comparedtoZyuganov's40.3percent
(http://www.electoralgeography.com/new/ru/countries/r/russia/russia-presidential-election-1996.html).ThelatterpredictablywontheRed
Belt,andpartsofsouthernSiberia,butlostinmostotherplaces.Interestingly,helostinPrimoryeandKhabarovsk,wherethelocal
strongmenNazdratenkoandIshaevwereabletodeliverthevote,andinChechnya(militaryvote),Dagestan,andTatarstan(Shaimiev).

OnFriday,29July2016,13:53,BoboLo<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>wrote:

Dearfriends,

Theseareallfascinatingreminiscencesandinsights.

Formypart,IarrivedinMoscowasFirstSecretaryintheAustralianEmbassyafewdaysbeforetheDecember1995Dumaelections,
andlivedthroughthesix-monthpresidentialelectioncampaign.

Afewcomments,forwhatthey'reworth:

1.Yeltsin'spopularityratingincreasedfrom2-3percentinJanuary1996to,ifmemoryserves,53percentinthesecondroundofthe
presidentials(versusZyuganov's38percent).Aremarkablechangeinfortunes,tosaytheleast!

2.So,howdidhedidhedoit?Well,alltheoligarchsgotbehindhimsothattherewasamassivediscrepancyinfinancialoutreach.
Then,theelectronicmedia(controlledbyseveraloftheoligarchs)gaveblanketpositivecoveragetoYeltsin,andcorrespondingly
negativecoveragetoZyuganov.Oneparticularexamplecomestomind-thetwocandidates'respectivedancingperformances.Yeltsin
wasshownrockingandrollingonafinedayinRedSquareinfrontofayoung,enthusiasticaudiencehavingagreattime.Zyuganovwas
shownmakingadog'sdinnerofaRussianfolkdance.Hewasfilmedfromabove,sothateveryonecouldseehisbaldingpate(compared
toY'sfineheadofhair),andsweatingprofuselyfromhisarmpitsandotherorifices.Hisaudiencewasalsohiscore,clapped-outand
grumpyCommunistPartyconstituency.Thesymbolismcouldnothavebeenmorestark,andboydidtheelectronicmedialaborthe
point!

3.AfriendofminewasplayingtenniswithGusinskyaboutamonthbeforethefirstround.GusinskysaidtherewasasplitintheYeltsin
campaboutwhattodowiththepresidentialelections-whethertogoaheadwiththem,ortocancel/postponethem.The'siloviki'(I
know,notatermthatcameintofashionuntillater!)closetoYeltsin,namely,KorzhakovandSoskovets,wereallforcanningthe
electionsonthebasisthattheycouldn'triskZ.comingtopower.Chubais,however,wasstronglyoftheviewthathecoulddelivera
positiveresult,andthattosuspendtheelectoralprocesswouldbebothhighlydamagingandunnecessary.Asweknownow,hewas
abletopersuadeYeltsin.

4.Irememberatthetimethattheamountofelectoralfalsification(ballotstuffing,etc.)wasnotdeemedtobeespeciallysignificant.The
figurecirculatingwasintheorderof5percent-obviouslyimportantintheeventofaclosecontest,butnotenoughtoinfluence
proceedingsgiventhegeneralexpectationthatYeltsinwouldwinthesecondroundhandily.

5.Weretheelectionsfreeandfair?No.Infact,theformulationthenwasthattheelectionswere'free,butnotfair'.Interestingly,though,
adiplomaticcolleagueofminetoldmethathisEmbassy'slinewasthat'theelectionsshallbedeemedfair'.

6.PartofthecheatingcamefromthepretensethatYeltsinwasthisvigorous,dynamic,andforward-lookingleaderincontrasttoatired,
regressiveZyuganov.Theirony,ofcourse,isthatYeltsinwasalreadyextremelyill,andcollapsedsoonafterbeingre-elected(remember
theclassicformulation-'workingonpapers'),whereasZyuganov,regressivethoughheundoubtedlyremains,isstillverymuchwithus.

Bobo

OnFriday,29July2016,13:04,RodricBraithwaite<rqbraithwaite@mac.com>wrote:

Icantkeepup.

However,ItOowasinRussiaatthetimeofthe1996election,intheweekbeforethesecondround.Isawacouple
ofZiuganovsteamatthattime:Masliukov,Surikov,andthatamazingeconomistwomen-wasitKoryagina?My
strongimpressionwasthat,despitetheirmansstrongshowinginthefirstround,theynotonlydidntexpecthimto
win-theyweaghastatthepossibilitythathemight.Theyobviouslyfearedthatwithvictorywouldcomethe
responsibilityofsortingthecountryout,andhadnoideahowtosetaboutit.

OnthedayofthesecondrounditselfwewerehavingdinnerwithPiontkovski.Iaskedhimifhedvoted.Hesaidhe
hadnt,becausehecouldntbeareithercandidate.Itoldhimheshoulddohiscivicduty,andthatthoughitwasnt
mybusinesstosayso,IthoughtheshouldvoteforYeltsin.Sohewentoutforawhile,andcamebacklater
mumblingsomethingthatledmetobelieveheddonethat.MuchlaterIdiscoveredthathehadntbeennearthe
pollingboth.

FourorfivemonthsearlierGaidarandIhaddisagreedwhenwebothspokeatadinnerinLondon.Hewassaying
thattheendofcivilisationwouldoccurifZiuganovwon.IsaidthatIthoughtthatwasagreatexaggeration:indeedit
mightbesalutaryifZiuganovwon,madeafoolofhimself,andsodemonstratedthattheCommunistswerenotthe
answer:thescenariowhichworkedinseveralEastEuropeancountries.GaidarsaidthatifZiuganovwon,hed
makesuretherewerenomoreelections.Whoknows?

AsforBobosdepressingviewofcurrentpoliticsthroughouttheworld,thatswhatyougetifyouwinaColdWar.IN
thiscountrythingsaresettlingdownunderMay:areliefafteraweekoflivinginabananarepublic.Itseemstome
thatthelatestfiascoisonemorestageinBritainsdeparturefromempire.Perhapswellendupasanormal
country(whateverthatmeans),withnomoreambitionstopunchaboveourweight.

On29Jul2016,at11:18,JulianCooper<j.m.cooper@bham.ac.uk>wrote:

Stephen

DontforgetthatitwasMedvedevwhofocusedattentionontheissueofthe1996presidentialelectioninan
commentmadeataclosedmeetinginFebruary2012:
http://content.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2107565,00.html

Yes,theVoronezhmekhanicheskiizavod,amajorproducerofliquidfuelledrocketengines,thenandnow;afilial
oftheKhrunichevstatespacescienceproductioncentreoftheRoskosmosstatecorporation.Alsoinvolvednowin
importsubstitutionactivitiesinthefieldofequipmentfortheoilandgasindustry.

Julian#



From:StephenFortescue[mailto:s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au]
Sent:28July201623:00
To:segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de
Cc:JulianCooperRodricBraithwaiteKyleWilsonRobertHorvathBoboLocarolinavendilpallinElizabethTeague
<keith.bush017@gmail.com>RichardConnollyPhilipHansonRodericLyneJohnBesemeresFriedErcSilvanaMalle
DG
Subject:Re:160724(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutinWeaponizedWikileakstoInfluencetheElectionofanAmericanPresident

Klaus,
Interesting.Thanksforthat.Iwouldhavesuspectedsomethingfishywasgoingoniftheydidn'ttrytogetyoudrunk.
Anumberofmywife'srelativescomefromVoronezh.OneofthemwasthechiefengineeroftheVoronezh
MekhanicheskiiZavod(Ithinkthat'sthename-anywaythebigdefenceplant),whobecametheheadofthelocal
privatisationagencyandhadalotofrespectforChubais.Idon'tremembertalkingtohimaboutYeltsin.Iimaginehe
wouldhavehadmixedfeelings,butnodoubtwhosesidehewouldhavebeenon.Heorganizedsomeinteresting
meetingsforme,whichImightgettheopportunitytodescribesomeothertime-andyouyourkolkhoz.
Stephen

SentfrommyiPad

On28Jul2016,at22:59,prof.dr.klaussegbers<segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de>wrote:


atthattime,iwasanofficialelectionobserverinvoronezh'(city)andoblast'(irmemeberacolorful
kolkhoz).
theosceandeuroparliamentdelegationsdidn'thavehardevoidenceoffalsificationsonelectionday.
unlessyoutakeattemptstomakeforeignobserversdrunkobverversasfalsifications(icouldresistthe
worst).
talkingaboutmediaimpactisadifferentstory.
mostrussiansitalkedtothendidn'thaveastronglikingforbne.slightlymoredislikedzyuganov,though.
also,weshouldn'tforgetthatthenbnewasn'ttheonestandingonthetankinfrontofthewhitehousebut
theonelettinghisdaughterandothersgrabstuff,andlettingkorzhakovrunningthecountryforawhile,
cumberezovskyietal..
themajorissueforthensuccessfulrussiansandmanywesternobserverswasnotthenationalismor
nostalgic'communism'ofzyuganovbutthecompleteinabilityofhis'team'tocontinueinstitutional
reformsandintegratingthecountryintotheworld(whatwasontheagendathen,wemaycomparewith
today,havingtearsinoureyes).

klaus

Am28.07.2016um14:43schriebStephenFortescue:
NodoubtvariousofuswillhavequibbleswithvariousthingsSimeshastosay.I'vegot
onequestion,Isupposeoflargelyhistoricalrelevance.It'shisreferencestothe
'demonstrablyfraudulent'natureand'massiveelectoralfraud'ofthe1996elections.These
arecharacterizationsofthoseelectionsthatoneseeseverywherethesedays,indeedasif
theyareestablishedhistoricalfacts.Istheclaimthatthecountingwassimplyfaked,and
thatifthevoteshadbeencountedascastZyuganovwouldhavewon?Ifthatistheclaim,
isthereevidence?It'sagenuinequestion-itmightwellexistandI'mjustnotawareofit.
IwasinRussiaatthetime,andIdon'trememberthenasenseofsurpriseordisbeliefin
theoutcome-butIguessImovedincirclesinwhichonewouldnothaveexpected
scepticism.
I'mofcoursewellawareofthepointsSimesmakesaboutmediasupportforYeltsinand
soon(andmaybethat'sallhemeansby'fraudulent').IremembertheTVcampaigns-I
rememberseeingYeltsin'sfamousdancingonstage-andthereasonablyrelentless
documentariesontheevilsoftheSovietpast.AsfarasIcouldtellthedocumentaries
wereallhistoricallyaccurate,buttherewascertainlysomethingaboutthe
timing.IalsorememberZyuganov'scampaign,whichgotenoughcoveragethatIwas
awareofitanditscontent,andmysenseatthetimewasthatYeltsin'sdancingwouldbe
moreelectorallyeffectivethanZyuganov'stimidlyandtediouslycrudenationalism.AndI
rememberthedealwithLebed,whichwasseenasgivingYeltsinabigchunkofvotesin
thesecondround.IhavetoadmitthatIhavenomemoryofYavlinskybeingaviable
candidateunderanyimaginablecircumstances.
Togetbacktomyquestion,isthereevidencethatYeltsinwontheelectionnotthrough
hardcore,butthroughstraightdownthelineballotboxstuffingand
countfalsification?
Stephen

SentfrommyiPad

On28Jul2016,at19:09,JulianCooper<J.M.COOPER@bham.ac.uk>wrote:

Changingthesubjecttosomeextent,thelatestfromDimitriSimes
http://nationalinterest.org/print/feature/russiaamericadestined
conflict16726

Julian




From:StephenFortescue[mailto:s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au]
Sent:28July201600:24
To:segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de
Cc:RodricBraithwaiteJulianCooperKyleWilsonRobertHorvathBoboLo
carolinavendilpallinElizabethTeague<keith.bush017@gmail.com>Richard
ConnollyPhilipHansonRodericLyneJohnBesemeresFriedErcSilvana
MalleDG
Subject:Re:160724(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutinWeaponizedWikileaksto
InfluencetheElectionofanAmericanPresident

Iagreewithyou-andMashaHessen.Ican'ttellfromherehowbigallthis
reallyisintheUScampaign,andwhyamIcommentingonaplaceI've
barelyevenvisitedinmylife,butiftheDemocratsarerelyingontheRussian
cardtogetthemovertheline,we'vegotabigproblemandifwethinkPutin
isthesourceofallourproblems,we'vegotanevenbiggerproblem.
Stephen

SentfrommyiPad

On27Jul2016,at21:57,prof.dr.klaussegbers<segbers@zedat.fu-
berlin.de>wrote:


stephen,ithinkit'snotsomuchabouttheKremlinbutabout
politicallygiftedclownssensingopportunities.theyfeelhow
manypeopleareclue-andhelplessfacingsocialandcultural
challengesrelatedtoglobalization.theypersonalizethese
feelingsprovidingforculprits('lockherup'),andoffering
simplified(andmostlynotviable)solutions('let'sbuildawall').
thisisthelinkbetweenputin,orban,erdogan,trump,xi
(exploitingtheanti-elitefeelingsbypromotinganti-corruption)
and,maybe,natanyahu(inowlessaboutthelastone).

Am27.07.2016um13:34schriebStephenFortescue:
IclaimnoexpertiseinthesemattersandI'mgoing
justontheevidencecontainedinthevarious
articlesreferredtointhiscorrespondence,butit
seemstomethatJuliaIoffehasgotitright
regardingpossiblefinanciallinksbetweenPutin
andTrump.Theevidenceisverythin-infact
nonethatanyRussianpartnersTrumpmighthave
areclosetoPutin.AsIoffepointsout,Trump's
lackofbusinesssuccessinRussiawouldsuggest
thelackofaconnection,ratherthantheotherway
around.Butbythesoundofithegenerallysent
hissontoMoscow,somaybehewasn'teven
tryingveryhard.
Noneofthat'stosaythathedoesn'tpresenta
viewoftheworldwhichisveryattractivetothe
Russians,andthatthey'rehopefulthathe'llwin.I
knownomoreaboutcomputerhackingthanabout
hotelfinancing,butthatevidencedoessoundmore
convincing,andwhywouldn'twebelieveit.
Idon'tknowhowbigallthisRussianstuffisinthe
campaign,butonecan'thelphavingthenasty
feelingthatEstoniabeinginthesuburbsofSt
PetersburgandHilaryisawarmongermightbe
attractivepropositionstomorevotersthanIliketo
thinkabout.HasanyoneintheUSmentioned,
say,China,theSouthChinaSeas,etc,orarethey
mattersofnoimport?
Onaslightlydifferentissue.Inthepresidential
websitereportofyesterday'sSecurityCouncil
meeting,Putinissaidtohavereportedonthe
forthcomingvisitofErdogantoRussiaandPutin's
telephoneconversationswithErdoganand
Netahanyu,allinonesentenceandasiftheywere
alllinked.AmIgettingtooKremlinological,or
aretheyalllinked?
Stephen

SentfrommyiPad

On27Jul2016,at18:25,RodricBraithwaite
<rqbraithwaite@mac.com>wrote:

Idbeveryinterestedincomments
ontheJoshMarshallarticle.

R


On26Jul2016,at
09:42,JulianCooper
<j.m.cooper@bham.ac.uk>
wrote:

Anotherview:
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the
hawks%E2%80%99
electionstrategy
pushingnewcold
war17113

Julian


From:KyleWilson
[mailto:krwilson66@icloud.com]
Sent:26July2016
00:11
To:RobertHorvath
BoboLoJulianCooper
carolinavendilpallin
<teagueeliza@aol.com>
<keith.bush017@gmail.com>
RichardConnollyPhil
Roderic&MandyLyne
JohnBesemeresKlaus
SegbersFUFriedErc
RodricBraithwaite
StephenFortescue
SilvanaMalle
Cc:DG
Subject:Fwd:160724
(DefOne/Tucker)How
PutinWeaponized
WikileakstoInfluence
theElectionofan
AmericanPresident

SentfrommyiPad

Beginforwarded
message:

Sentfrom
myiPad

Begin
forwarded
message:

Date:26
July
2016
at
01:19:32
AEST
To:undisclosed-
recipients:
Subject:Fwd:
160724
(DefOne/Tucker)
How
Putin
Weaponized
Wikileaks
to
Influence
the
Election
of
an
American
President

for
whatever
it's
worth
...

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/trump-
putin-
yes-
it-
s-
really-
a-
thing

TPMEDITOR'S
BLOG

Trump
&
Putin.
Yes,
It's
Really
a
Thing

ByJOSH
MARSHALLPublishedJULY
23,
2016,
4:15
PM
EDT

Over
the
last
year
there
has
been
a
recurrent
refrain
about
the
seeming
bromance
between
Donald
Trump
and
Russian
President
Vladimir
Putin.
More
seriously,
but
relatedly,
many
believe
Trump
is
an
admirer
and
would-
be
emulator
of
Putin's
increasingly
autocratic
and
illiberal
rule.
But
there's
quite
a
bit
more
to
the
story.
At
a
minimum,
Trump
appears
to
have
a
deep
financial
dependence
on
Russian
money
from
persons
close
to
Putin.
And
this
is
matched
to
a
conspicuous
solicitousness
to
Russian
foreign
policy
interests
where
they
come
into
conflict
with
US
policies
which
go
back
decades
through
administrations
of
both
parties.
There
is
also
something
between
a
non-
trivial
and
a
substantial
amount
of
evidence
suggesting
Putin-
backed
financial
support
for
Trump
or
a
non-
tacit
alliance
between
the
two
men.

Let
me
start
by
saying
I'm
no
Russia
hawk.
I
have
long
been
skeptical
of
US
efforts
to
extend
security
guarantees
to
countries
within
what
the
Russians
consider
their
'near
abroad'
or
extend
such
guarantees
and
police
Russian
interactions
with
new
states
which
for
centuries
were
part
of
either
the
Russian
Empire
or
the
USSR.
This
isn't
a
matter
of
indifference
to
these
countries.
It
is
based
on
my
belief
in
seriously
thinking
through
the
potential
costs
of
such
policies.
In
the
case
of
the
Baltics,
those
countries
are
now
part
of
NATO.
Security
commitments
have
been
made
which
absolutely
must
be
kept.
But
there
are
many
other
areas
where
such
commitments
have
not
been
made.
My
point
in
raising
this
is
that
I
do
not
come
to
this
question
or
these
policies
as
someone
looking
for
confrontation
or
cold
relations
with
Russia.
Let's
start
with
the
basic
facts.
There
is
a
lot
of
Russian
money
flowing
into
Trump's
coffers
and
he
is
conspicuously
solicitous
of
Russian
foreign
policy
priorities.
I'll
list
off
some
facts.
1.
All
the
other
discussions
of
Trump's
finances
aside,
hisdebt
load
has
grown
dramatically
over
the
last
year,
from
$350
million
to
$630
million.
This
is
in
just
one
year
while
his
liquid
assets
have
also
decreased.
Trump
has
been
blackballed
by
all
major
US
banks.
2.
Post-
bankruptcy
Trump
has
been
highly
reliant
on
money
from
Russia,
most
of
which
has
over
the
years
become
increasingly
concentrated
among
oligarchs
and
sub-
garchs
close
to
Vladimir
Putin.
Here's
agood
overviewfromThe
Washington
Post,with
one
morsel
for
illustration
...
Since
the
1980s,
Trump
and
his
family
members
have
made
numerous
trips
to
Moscow
in
search
of
business
opportunities,
and
they
have
relied
on
Russian
investors
to
buy
their
properties
around
the
world.
Russians
make
up
a
pretty
disproportionate
cross-
section
of
a
lot
of
our
assets,
Trumps
son,
Donald
Jr.,
told
a
real
estate
conference
in
2008,
according
to
an
account
posted
on
the
website
of
eTurboNews,
a
trade
publication.
We
see
a
lot
of
money
pouring
in
from
Russia.

3.
One
example
of
this
is
the
Trump
Soho
development
in
Manhattan,
one
of
Trump's
largest
recent
endeavors.
The
project
was
hit
with
a
series
of
lawsuits
in
response
to
some
typically
Trumpian
efforts
to
defraud
investors
by
making
fraudulent
claims
about
the
financial
health
of
the
project.
Emerging
out
of
that
litigation
however
wasnews
about
secret
financing
for
the
project
from
Russia
and
Kazakhstan.
Most
attention
about
the
project
has
focused
on
the
presence
of
a
twice
imprisoned
Russian
immigrant
with
extensive
ties
to
the
Russian
criminal
underworld.
But
that's
not
the
most
salient
part
of
the
story.
As
theTimesput
it,
"Mr.
Lauria
brokered
a
$50
million
investment
in
Trump
SoHo
and
three
other
Bayrock
projects
by
an
Icelandic
firm
preferred
by
wealthy
Russians
in
favor
with
President
Vladimir
V.
Putin,
according
to
a
lawsuit
against
Bayrock
by
one
of
its
former
executives.
The
Icelandic
company,
FL
Group,
was
identified
in
a
Bayrock
investor
presentation
as
a
strategic
partner,
along
with
Alexander
Mashkevich,
a
billionaire
once
charged
in
a
corruption
case
involving
fees
paid
by
a
Belgian
company
seeking
business
in
Kazakhstan
that
case
was
settled
with
no
admission
of
guilt."
Another
suit
alleged
the
project
"occasionally
received
unexplained
infusions
of
cash
from
accounts
in
Kazakhstan
and
Russia."
Sounds
completely
legit.
Read
both
articles:
After
his
bankruptcy
and
business
failures
roughly
a
decade
ago
Trump
has
had
an
increasingly
difficult
time
finding
sources
of
capital
for
new
investments.
As
I
noted
above,
Trump
has
been
blackballed
by
all
major
US
banks
with
the
exception
of
Deutschebank,
which
is
of
course
a
foreign
bank
with
a
major
US
presence.
He
has
steadied
and
rebuilt
his
financial
empire
with
a
heavy
reliance
on
capital
from
Russia.
At
a
minimum
the
Trump
organization
is
receiving
lots
of
investment
capital
from
people
close
to
Vladimir
Putin.
Trump's
tax
returns
would
likely
clarify
the
depth
of
his
connections
to
and
dependence
on
Russian
capital
aligned
with
Putin.
And
in
case
you're
keeping
score
at
home:
no,
that's
not
reassuring.
4.
Then
there's
Paul
Manafort,
Trump's
nominal
'campaign
chair'
who
now
functions
as
campaign
manager
and
top
advisor.
Manafort
spent
most
of
the
last
decade
as
top
campaign
and
communications
advisor
for
Viktor
Yanukovych,
the
pro-
Russian
Ukrainian
Prime
Minister
and
then
President
whose
ouster
in
2014
led
to
the
on-
going
crisis
and
proxy
war
in
Ukraine.
Yanukovych
was
and
remains
a
close
Putin
ally.
Manafort
is
running
Trump's
campaign.
5.
Trump's
foreign
policy
advisor
on
Russia
and
Europe
isCarter
Page,
a
man
whose
entire
professional
career
has
revolved
around
investments
in
Russia
and
who
has
deep
and
continuing
financial
and
employment
ties
to
Gazprom.
If
you're
not
familiar
with
Gazprom,
imagine
if
most
or
all
of
the
US
energy
industry
were
rolled
up
into
a
single
company
and
it
were
personally
controlled
by
the
US
President
who
used
it
as
a
source
of
revenue
and
patronage.
That
is
Gazprom's
role
in
the
Russian
political
and
economic
system.
It
is
no
exaggeration
to
say
that
you
cannot
be
involved
with
Gazprom
at
the
very
high
level
which
Page
has
been
without
being
wholly
in
alignment
with
Putin's
policies.
Those
ties
also
allow
Putin
to
put
Page
out
of
business
at
any
time.
6.
Over
the
course
of
the
last
year,
Putin
hasaligned
all
Russian
state
controlled
media
behind
Trump.
As
Frank
Foerexplains
here,
this
fits
a
pattern
with
how
Putin
has
sought
to
prop
up
rightist/nationalist
politicians
across
Europe,
often
with
direct
or
covert
infusions
of
money.
In
some
cases
this
is
because
they
support
Russia-
backed
policies
in
others
it
is
simply
because
they
sow
discord
in
Western
aligned
states.
Of
course,
Trump
has
repeatedly
praised
Putin,
not
only
in
the
abstract
but
often
for
the
authoritarian
policies
and
patterns
of
government
which
have
most
soured
his
reputation
around
the
world.
7.
Here's
where
it
gets
more
interesting.
This
is
one
of
a
handful
of
developments
that
tipped
me
from
seeing
all
this
as
just
a
part
of
Trump's
larger
shadiness
to
something
more
specific
and
ominous
about
the
relationship
between
Putin
and
Trump.
As
TPM's
Tierney
Sneedexplained
in
this
article,
one
of
the
most
enduring
dynamics
of
GOP
conventions
(there's
a
comparable
dynamic
on
the
Dem
side)
is
more
mainstream
nominees
battling
conservative
activists
over
the
party
platform,
with
activists
trying
to
check
all
the
hardline
ideological
boxes
and
the
nominees
trying
to
soften
most
or
all
of
those
edges.
This
is
one
thing
that
made
the
Trump
convention
very
different.
The
Trump
Camp
was
totally
indifferent
to
the
platform.
So
party
activists
were
able
to
write
one
of
the
most
conservative
platforms
in
history.
Not
with
Trump's
backing
but
because
he
simply
didn't
care.With
one
big
exception:
Trump's
team
mobilized
the
nominee's
traditional
mix
of
cajoling
and
strong-
arming
on
one
point:changing
the
party
platform
on
assistance
to
Ukraine
against
Russian
military
operationsin
eastern
Ukraine.
For
what
it's
worth
(and
it's
not
worth
much)
I
am
quite
skeptical
of
most
Republicans
call
for
aggressively
arming
Ukraine
to
resist
Russian
aggression.
But
the
single-
mindedness
of
this
focus
on
this
one
issue
-
in
the
context
of
total
indifference
to
everything
else
in
the
platform
-
speaks
volumes.
This
does
not
mean
Trump
is
controlled
by
or
in
the
pay
of
Russia
or
Putin.
It
can
just
as
easily
be
explained
by
having
many
of
his
top
advisors
having
spent
years
working
in
Putin's
orbit
and
being
aligned
with
his
thinking
and
agenda.
But
it
is
certainly
no
coincidence.
Again,
in
the
context
of
near
total
indifference
to
the
platform
and
willingness
to
let
party
activists
write
it
in
any
way
they
want,
his
team
zeroed
in
on
one
fairly
obscure
plank
to
exert
maximum
force
and
it
just
happens
to
be
the
one
most
important
to
Putin
in
terms
of
US
policy.
Add
to
this
that
his
most
conspicuous
foreign
policy
statements
track
not
only
with
Putin's
positions
but
those
in
which
Putin
is
most
intensely
interested.
Aside
from
Ukraine,
Trump's
suggestion
that
the
US
and
thus
NATO
mightnotcome
to
the
defense
of
NATO
member
states
in
the
Baltics
in
the
case
of
a
Russian
invasion
is
a
case
in
point.
There
are
many
other
things
people
are
alleging
about
hacking
and
all
manner
of
other
mysteries.
But
those
points
are
highly
speculative,
some
verging
on
conspiratorial
in
their
thinking.
I
ignore
them
here
because
I've
wanted
to
focus
on
unimpeachable,
undisputed
and
publicly
known
facts.
These
alone
paint
a
stark
and
highly
troubling
picture.
To
put
this
all
into
perspective,
if
Vladimir
Putin
were
simply
the
CEO
of
a
major
American
corporation
and
there
wasthis
much
moneyflowing
in
Trump's
direction,
combined
withthis
much
solicitousnessof
Putin's
policy
agenda,
it
would
set
off
alarm
bells
galore.
That
is
not
hyperbole
or
exaggeration.
And
yet
Putin
is
not
the
CEO
of
an
American
corporation.
He's
the
autocrat
who
rules
a
foreign
state,
with
an
increasingly
hostile
posture
towards
the
United
States
and
a
substantial
stockpile
of
nuclear
weapons.
The
stakes
involved
in
finding
out
'what's
going
on'
as
Trump
might
put
it
are
quite
a
bit
higher.
There
is
something
between
a
non-
trivial
and
a
substantial
amount
of
circumstantial
evidence
for
a
financial
relationship
between
Trump
and
Putin
or
a
non-
tacit
alliance
between
the
two
men.
Even
if
you
draw
no
adverse
conclusions,
Trump's
financial
empire
is
heavily
leveraged
and
has
a
deep
reliance
on
capital
infusions
from
oligarchs
and
other
sources
of
wealth
aligned
with
Putin.
That's
simply
not
something
that
can
be
waved
off
or
ignored.

-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Forwarded
message
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
From:Don
KEYSER<dwkeyser@gmail.com>
Date:
Mon,
Jul
25,
2016
at
8:01
AM

http://www.defenseone.com/technology/2016/07/how-
putin-
weaponized-
wikileaks-
influence-
election-
american-
president/130163/?
&utm_term=Editorial%20-
%20Early%20Bird%20Brief

How
Putin
Weaponized
Wikileaks
to
Influence
the
Election
of
an
AmericanPresident
Evidence
suggests
that
a
Russian
intelligence
group
was
the
source
of
the
most
recent
Wikileaks
intel
dump,
which
was
aimed
to
influence
the
U.S.
election

July
24,
2016

By
Patrick
Tucker
Close
your
eyes
and
imagine
that
ahacking
group
backed
by
Russian
President
Vladimir
Putin
broke
into
the
email
system
of
a
majorU.S.political
party.
The
group
stole
thousands
of
sensitive
messages
and
then
published
them
through
an
obliging
third
party
in
a
way
that
was
strategically
timed
to
influence
the
United
States
presidential
election.
Now
open
your
eyes,
because
thats
what
justhappened.
On
Friday,
Wikileaks
published
20,000
emails
stolen
from
the
Democratic
National
Committee.
They
reveal,
among
other
things,thuggish
infighting,
a
push
bya
topDNCofficialto
use
Bernie
Sanders
religious
convictions
against
him
in
the
South,
and
attemptsto
strong-
armmedia
outlets.
In
other
words,
they
reveal
the
Washington
campaign
monster
for
what
itis.
But
leave
aside
the
purported
content
of
the
Wikileaks
data
dump
(to
which
numerous
other
outlets
have
devoted
considerable
attention)
and
consider
the
source.Considerable
evidence
shows
that
the
Wikileaks
dump
was
an
orchestrated
act
by
the
Russian
government,
working
through
proxies,
to
undermine
Hillary
Clintons
Presidentialcampaign.
This
has
all
the
hallmarks
of
tradecraft.
The
only
rationale
to
release
such
data
from
the
Russian
bulletproof
host
was
to
empower
one
candidate
against
another.
The
Cold
War
is
alive
and
well,
Tom
Kellermann,
theCEOof
Strategic
Cyber
Ventures
toldDefenseOne.
Heres
Subscribe
the
Receive
dailytimeline:On
emailJune
14,
updates:
cybersecurity
Subscribe
to company
the CrowdStrike,
under
Defense
One
contract
with
daily.
theDNC,
Be announced
the in
firsta
to blog
post
receive
that
updates.
two
separate
Russian
intelligence
groups
had
gained
access
to
theDNCnetwork.
One
group,FANCYBEARorAPT28,
gained
access
in
April.
The
other,COZYBEAR,
(also
called
Cozy
Duke
andAPT29)
first
breached
the
network
in
the
summer
of2015.
Cybersecurity
company
FireEye
firstdiscoveredAPT29
in
2014
and
was
quick
to
point
out
a
clear
Kremlin
connection.
We
suspect
the
Russian
government
sponsors
the
group
because
of
the
organizations
it
targets
and
the
data
it
steals.
Additionally,APT29
appeared
to
cease
operations
on
Russian
holidays,
and
their
work
hours
seem
to
align
with
theUTC+3
time
zone,
which
contains
cities
such
as
Moscow
and
St.
Petersburg,
they
wrote
in
their
report
on
the
group.OtherU.S.officialshave
said
that
the
group
looks
like
it
has
sponsorship
from
the
Russian
government
due
in
large
part
to
the
level
of
sophistication
behind
the
groupsattacks.
Its
The
the
Cold
same
War
group
is
that
alive
hit
and
theState
well
Department,
Tom
the
Kellermann,CEOof
White
Strategic
House,
and
Cyber

the
Ventures

civilian
email
of
theJoint
Chiefs
of
Staff.The
groups
modus
operandi
(a
spearphishing
attack
that
uploads
adistinctiveremote
access
tool
on
the
targets
computer)
is
well
known
to
cyber-
securityresearchers.
In
hisblog
poston
theDNCbreachesCrowdStrikesCTODmitri
Alperovitchwrote
Weve
had
lots
of
experience
with
both
of
these
actors
attempting
to
target
our
customers
in
the
past
and
know
them
well.
In
fact,
our
team
considers
them
some
of
the
best
adversaries
out
of
all
the
numerous
nation-
state,
criminal
and
hacktivist/terrorist
groups
we
encounter
on
a
daily
basis.Their
tradecraft
is
superb,
operational
security
second
to
none
and
the
extensive
usage
of
living-
off-
the-
land
techniques
enables
them
to
easily
bypass
many
security
solutions
theyencounter.
The
next
day,
an
individual
calling
himself
Guccifer
2.0claimedto
be
the
culprit
behind
the
breach
and
released
key
documents
to
back
up
the
claim,writing:Shame
onCrowdStrike.
Related:What
the
Joint
Chiefs
Email
Hack
Tells
Us
About
theDNCBreach
Related:The
Ukrainian
Blackout
and
the
Future
ofWar
Crowdstrike
stood
by
their
original
analysis,
writing:
these
claims
do
nothing
to
lessen
our
findings
relating
to
the
Russian
governments
involvement,
portions
of
which
we
have
documented
for
the
public
and
the
greater
securitycommunity.
Other
security
firms
offered
independent
analysis
and
reached
the
same
conclusion.
The
group
Fidelis
undertook
theirown
investigationand
found
Crowdstrike
to
becorrect.
A
Twitter
user
named@PwnAlltheThingslooked
at
the
metadata
on
the
docs
that
Guccifer
2.0
provided
in
his
blog
post
and
found
literal
Russiansignatures.
His
findings
were
backed
up
by
Dan
Goodin
atArs
Technica.
Given
the
evidence
combined
with
everything
else,
I
think
its
a
strong
attribution
to
one
of
the
Russian
intelligence
agencies,
@PwnAllTheThingsremarked
toMotherboard.
Motherboardreporter
Lorenzo
Franceschi-
Bicchierai
actually
conversed
with
Guccifer
2.0
over
Twitter.
The
hacker,
who
claimed
to
be
Romanian,
answered
questions
in
short
sentences
that
were
filled
with
mistakes
according
to
several
Romanian
native
speakers,
Bicchierifound.
A
large
body
of
evidence
suggests
that
Guccifer
2.0
is
a
smokescreen
that
the
actual
culprits
employed
to
hide
their
involvement
in
thebreach.
That
would
be
consistent
with
Russian
information
and
influence
operations.
Russian
propagandists
have
been
caught
hiring
actors
to
portray
victims
of
manufactured
atrocities
or
crimes
for
news
reports
(as
was
the
case
when
Viktoria
Schmidt
pretended
to
have
been
attacked
by
Syrian
refugees
in
Germany
for
Russias
ZvezdaTVnetwork),
or
faking
on-
scene
news
reporting
(as
shown
in
a
leaked
video
in
which
reporter
Maria
Katasonova
is
revealed
to
be
in
a
darkened
room
with
explosion
sounds
playing
in
the
background
rather
than
on
a
battlefield
in
Donetsk
when
a
light
is
switched
on
during
the
recording),
notes
aRANDreportfrom
earlier
inJuly.
The
use
of
Wikileaks
as
the
publishing
platform
served
to
legitimize
the
information
dump,
which
also
containsa
large
amount
of
personal
informationrelated
to
democratic
donors
such
as
social
security
and
credit
card
numbers.
This
suggests
that
Wikileaks
didnt
perform
a
thorough
analysis
of
the
documents
before
they
released
them,
or
simply
didntcare.
Its
the
latest
installment
in
a
trend
that
information
security
researcher
Bruce
Schneier
callsorganizational
doxingand
that
Lawfares
Nicholas
Weaver
callsthe
weaponization
ofWikileaks.
The
most
remarkable
example
of
which,
prior
to
theDNCincident,
was
the
June
2015
the
publication
of
several
sets
ofNSArecords
related
to
government
intelligence
collection
targets
inFrance,Japan,BrazilandGermany.
The
data
itself
was
not
remarkable,
but
it
did
harmU.S.relations
and
may
have
compromisedNSAtradecraft.
Wikileaks
doesnt
seem
to
care
that
they
are
being
used
as
a
weapon
by
unknown
parties,
instead
calling
themselves
a
library
of
mass
education.
But
the
rest
of
us
should,Weaverwrites.
The
evidence
so
far
suggests
its
a
weapon
that
Putin
used
to
great
effect
lastweek.


--
klaussegbers
<gp-center-logo.jpg>
professorforpoliticalscience
director,centerforglobalpolitics
freeuniversityofberlin

garystr.55,d-14195berlin
phone+493083852088
fax+493083853616

urlhttp://www.global-politics.org
urlhttp://www.oei.fu-berlin.de/politik
urlhttp://www.segbers.eu

--
klaussegbers
<gp-center-logo.jpg>
professorforpoliticalscience
director,centerforglobalpolitics
freeuniversityofberlin

garystr.55,d-14195berlin
phone+493083852088
fax+493083853616

urlhttp://www.global-politics.org
urlhttp://www.oei.fu-berlin.de/politik
urlhttp://www.segbers.eu

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