Trump 10

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.
edu>
Senttime: 01/25/201608:53:39AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:"LitvinenkokillerslefttrailofradiationaftervisittoBRITISHEMBASSY[inMoscow]topleadinnocence,"telegraph.co.uk,1/24
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Monday,January25,20168:53AM
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:"LitvinenkokillerslefttrailofradiationaftervisittoBRITISHEMBASSY[inMoscow]topleadinnocence,"telegraph.co.uk,1/24
AseniordiplomatstationedattheBritishembassyinMoscow[PaulKNOTT]hastoldforthefirsttime
howAlexanderLitvinenkosassassinsleftatrailofPOLONIUMinthebuilding.
And:NicoHines,Britainwarnsallies:RussiasnextASSASSINATIONcouldbeonyourstreets,
thedailybeast.com,1/24
And:Russian2015industrialoutputfallsforthefirsttime[3.4%]in6years,themsocowtimes.com,
1/25
And:RealincomeforRussianswentdownby4%in2015,wagesdeclinedby9.5%,
http://www.rosbalt.ru/business/2016/01/25/1483004.html
And:NospecialstatusforeastUkrainewithoutceasefire:President{POROSHENKO],Reuters,
news.yahoo.com,1/25
And:PACEsaysRussiamayresumeworkin2017,afterDUMAelection,unian.info,1/25
And:ZhannaNemtsova[daughterofBoris]asksPACEtobegintheinvestigationofthemurderofher
father,http://www.novayagazeta.ru/news/1699648.html?print=1
And:UkrainianMVD:AnadvisortoAvakovhasrelated[onFacebook]aboutarebellionintheKremlin
andthereasonsforthemurderofGRUheadSERGUN,
http://charter97.org/ru/news/2016/1/24/188269
UkrainianMVD:TheFSBkilledGeneralSergunbecausehewaspreparingacourtrebellion
[pridvornyibunt]andtheremovalofPutin.AfiercestruggleiscurrentlytakingplacebetweentheFSB
andGRUforleadershipandinfluence.TheDonbasisanintegralpartofthisstruggle.
And:OperationSuccessor,http://grani.ru/Society/People/Politicians/m.248028.html
LydmilaPutinahasreclaimedhermaidenname[Shkrebneva]andmarriedamanArturOchereretnyi
19yearsherjunior.
And:WiseManRobertGATES[formerheadofCIAandSecretaryofDefense]trashesDonald
TRUMP,doubtsObamasspunk,thedailybeast.com,1/25
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 01/22/201608:54:27AM
Subject: FW:TheEditorialBoardoftheNewYorkTimes:"Mr.PutinandthePOISONOUSLondongteapart,"nytimes.com,1/22TheOpinionpages
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Friday,January22,20168:54AM
Subject:TheEditorialBoardoftheNewYorkTimes:"Mr.PutinandthePOISONOUSLondongteapart,"nytimes.com,1/22TheOpinion
pages
Lastparagraph:Mr.Putinhasbuiltasordidrecordonjusticeandhumanrights,whichnaturally
reinforcessuspicionsthathecouldeasilyhavebeeninvolvedinthe[Litvinenko]murder.Atthevery
least,theLondoninquiry,howevermuchitisdeniedattheKremlin,shouldserveasaCAUTIONtothe
Russianleadertorepairhisreputationfornotoriousintriguesabroad.
And:KERRY[atDavos]sayseffortandgoodfaith[!]couldleadtoliftingofSANCTIONSonRussia[in
thecomingmonths],reuters.com,1/22
And:RussianSANCTIONScouldbegoneinafewmonths,JohnKerrysays,
http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/22/news/russiaukrainesanctionsjohnkerrydavos/
And:RussiapushingforanENDGAMEinUkraine,themoscowtimes.com,1/22
DetaileddiscussionoftheNulandSurkovbrainstormingsessionanditsimplications.
And:Ukrainianarmyreports69[!]strikesonitspositionsinDonbas[overthepastday],
http://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/690565240556253185
And:FinancialTimes:VladimirPutinproposedtoAssadthathegointoretirement,
http://www.newsru.com/world/22jan2016/offer_print.htmlPeskovhasdeniedtheFinancialTimes
report.
And:ThomasWright,TRUMPs19thcenturyforeignpolicy.Hisviewsarentasconfusedasthey
seem.Infacttheyreremarkablyconsistentandtheyhavealonghistory,
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/01/donaldtrumpforeignpolicy213546?o=2
TheauthorexplainsthatTrump,theRepublicanfrontrunner,couldbeexpectedtogetalongverywell
withPutin.
And:KarinaORLOVA,ReplytoTonyaSamsonova,http://echo.msk.ru/blog/karina_orlova/1698520
echo/
SamsonovahaddefendedtheregimesassassinationofLitvinenko.TheUSandotherstatesdoit
whycantRussia?Orlova:Theresponsehereissimple.WhenBarakObamaordersBinLadenkilled
hedoesittotheheadofAlQaedawhichcarriedouttheterroristactof9/11Butwhatterroristact
didLitvinenkocommit?...WhatlawwasadoptedpermittingLitvinenkotobekilledwithinalegal
framework?
And:AleksandrSOLDATOV,Should[RussianOrthodox]BANKSexist?Andwhatdoesitsignifyifthese
bankshaveproblems?http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/71529.html?print=1
From: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Senttime: 01/29/201602:12:56PM
To: WayneandStacyAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject: InternetNotes29January2016
Attachments: IN29Jan16.docx
InternetNotes29January2016
PavlovskiyEkhoMoskvyinterview(TheLitvinenkomurderWhatmakesthesystemcorrupt?AllegationsofPutins
corruptionKadyrovTheKremlinteamitselfshouldplanforalong-termpowertransition)
BelkovskiyonPutinswealth
Peskov:TheUSisconductingasmearcampaignagainstPutin
Rublerallieswithoilupabit(OPEC,Russia,andoilproduction)
Theupsideofadownruble?
TheNemtsovinvestigationiscomplete
PavlovskiyEkhoMoskvyinterview(TheLitvinenkomurderWhatmakesthesystemcorrupt?AllegationsofPutins
corruptionKadyrovTheKremlinteamitselfshouldplanforalong-termpowertransition)
http://echo.msk.ru/programs/personalno/1701234-echo/
Pavlovskiysays,regardingtheOwenreportsassertingPutinandPatrushevprobablyhadsomethingtodowithLitvinenkos
murder(Seethe25and26Januarynotes),well,whoknows?TheNemtsovmurderwasnotaverticalstateoperationitwas
donebyamixedprivate-stategroup.Itwasastateoperationinthesensethatstateofficialswereinvolved.Therewasnoproof
otherwise,whichwouldrequirefurtherinvestigation.Themainargumentinfavorofthereportsassertionisthecostand
complicationinvolvedinusingpolonium.
Thissystemisbasedonthepurchaseandre-saleofauthority,whichiswhyitsacorruptsystem,notbecausesomeonetakes
bribessoPavlovskiysayshewouldnotbesurprisediftheconspiracyinthekillingofLitvinenkowasnotunlikethatinthecaseof
Nemtsov.
Hehasdoubtsaboutwhetheritwasastaterunspecialoperation.Asfarasheknows,allspecialservicescommitassassinations
beyondtheirownterritories,especiallyinthecaseofdoubleagentsbutLitvinenko,hehadalreadydoneallhecoulddo,he
didnthaveanyinformation.AndLugovoyandKovtunwereknown.Foraspecialservicesoperation,itlookedincompetent.An
operationlikethisthrowsashadowonPutinandtheKremlinshouldbeinterestedinacompleteinvestigation.
Asfarasincompetenceandthevertical,thereisntanyvertical,justatradeinfulfillingassignmentsamonggroups,atrade
financedbybudgetmoney,andtheassignmentsareeitherfulfilledornot
OntheallegationsofcorruptionagainstPutinweveheardthisbefore.TheysaidGorbachevbuiltapalaceaswell.Weshould
becautiousinassessingtheseclaims.Wearetalkingaboutstatepropertythatwasconvertedtoprivateproperty.Private
billionairesmakemoney,peopleinthestateuseproperty.Soatsomepoint,youhavetodecidebetweenvlast(andusingits
resources)andmoney.TheresnobodyinPutinscirclewhodoesntmakeuseoftheirproximitytothepresidentforcommercial
reasons.AndPutindoesnthaveadifferentmethodforachievinghisobjectives.
Serdyukovwasagoodexample.Heconductedacampaignaimedatmodernizingthearmyandheusedcorruptmethodsto
proceed.Histeamwasallowedtomakeoffwithstatefunds,buthecontrolledthemsothattheywoulddosomething.The
questionforPutinisDoeshecontrolhispeoplesothattheywillactuallydosomething?
OnKadyrovtherecentmassmeetinginGroznywasdoneonlocalinitiativeandprobablyirritatedtheKremlin.TheGrozny
demonstrationwasntsomuchaimedattheliberalsasitwasatstateofficials.Andtheydidntlikeit.Buttheycouldntsayso
directlybecausePutinhaspraisedKadyrovsfatherandspokenofthesonseffectiveness(Seethe26Januarynotes).
Pavlovskiysayshecanimaginethat,underthepresentcircumstances,certaingroupswillcometotheKremlinanddemandmoney
groupswhohadsomethingtodowiththeDonbass,forinstance.Peoplewithconnections.PeoplearespeakingupYakunin,
forexample.Gref,yes,thoughhessomethingofajokester.Therewillbebusinessgroupsthatwilldeclaretheirinterestsinthe
contextofconcernsaboutthecrisis,thestateofthecountry.Problemis,theKremlinislosingtheinitiative.Itcouldseizethe
initiativeandsettheagenda,buttheresnobody,muchlessintheKremlinentourage,whocantalkaboutwhattheyseehappening.
NobodyinthesuperconspiratorialKremlincandiscusswhatsactuallyhappeninginthecountry.TheKremlinteamitselfshould
leadalongtermpowertransitionprojectthroughdemocraticmeans.
SodoesthecurrentKremlinentouragebelieveinlifeafterPutin?Orevenhopeforit?PavlovskiyrepliesthatPutindoesnothave
anyanswershecantofferanewagenda.HecantsolveanythingforRosneftorforRosnano.*ButpredictingPutinsdecisions
isharderthanpredictingoilpricesThecollectiveguiltofthecurrentteamisthattherehavebeennoprinciplesforstate
construction.Whatsneedednowarestateinstitutions.Itsnecessarytoraisetaxes(thatandtogivethepopulationachanceto
makemoney),butPutinwontdothatbecausehewantstoprotecthisrating,whichhasbecomeacult.Youhavetogive
opportunitiestoacttothosewhoarecapableofdoingsomething.AndtheKremlin,whiletheregimeisstillstable(andinspiteof
whatalotpfpeoplethink,itsnotgoingtocomeaparttomorrow)shouldbegintheprojectofalongterm,strategictransferof
powertothepeopleofRussia.
Thepeoplewillhavetogetreadyforthat.Itsdifficultwork,butapathothershavetaken.
*DvorkovichhassaidthatRosnanoandSkolkovocouldbedisbanded,dependingonevaluationsoftheireffectiveness:
http://government.ru/news/21544/
BelkovskiyonPutinswealth
Comment:IwonderedtheotherdayaboutwhetherBelkovskiyhadeverchangedhis$40billionestimateofPutins
wealth(Seethe27Januarynotes).AreaderremindedmethathehadatonetimesayingPutinsassetshad
increasedinvaluetoperhaps$70billion(Thatwasin2012:http://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/2012/04/19/putin-the-richest-
man-on-earth/),thenhegaveanotherestimateof$100billion(In2013:http://www.echo.msk.ru/programs/personalno/1012026-
echo/#element-text).Heneverhassaidanything,tomyknowledge,abouttheimpactoftherubledevaluationonthose
assets,however.
Peskov:TheUSisconductingasmearcampaignagainstPutin
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/peskov-says-us-running-putin-smear-campaign-before-2018-
elections/557538.html
PresidentVladimirPutinsspokesmanDmitryPeskovhassuggestedthatrecentcommentsmadebyU.S.government
officialsabouttheRussianpresidentispartofasmearcampaignintherun-uptothe2018Russianpresidentialelections,
InterfaxreportedFriday.Seethe26and27Januarynotes.
Thepresidentialelectionsareonthehorizonanditseemsthat[U.S.]preparationshavealreadystarted,Peskovsaid.
JournalistsaskedPeskovwhetherthissignalsthatPutinwillstandasapresidentialcandidateintheupcomingelection.
Totalkaboutourelections,whichwilltakeplacetwoyearsfromnow,isunheardof,wedontevenknowyetwhether
Putinhastheintentiontostandornot,butasmearcampaignhasalreadybegun,Peskovreplied.
PeskovalsorespondedtojournalistsquestionsaboutrecentcommentsbyU.S.officialswhichdescribedPutinas
corrupt.
PeskovsaidthatU.S.presidentialelectioncandidatesuseissuesaboutRussiaandPutinfortheirowngain.
HeclaimedthathewouldlosehisjobifhemadesimilarstatementsabouttheU.S.president.
Rublerallieswithoilupabit(OPEC,Russia,andoilproduction)
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/oil-price-rally-gives-respite-to-russian-ruble/557544.html
TheRussianrublehasstrengthenedsharplyinrecentdaysasanoilpricerallyeasedthepressureontheeconomyofthe
world'slargestenergyexporter.
ByFridaymidafternoontherublewastradingataround76totheU.S.dollarmorethantenpercentstrongerthanon
Jan.21whenthecurrencyreached85.99tothegreenback,itsworstsincesince1998.
Therublehasfollowedmovementsintheoilprice,whichrosesharplythisweekonnewsthatRussiamaynegotiate
outputcutswithOPEC,*theoilproducers'cartel,toeasetheoversupplyonglobalmarketsandliftthecostofcrude.
Brentoil,theglobalbenchmark,soldforaround$35perbarrelonFriday,upfromlessthan$28atthestartoftheweek.
Russia'sbudgetreliesontheenergyindustryforaroundhalfitsrevenueandisbasedonanaveragepriceof$50per
barrelthisyear.
However,DeputyPrimeMinisterArkadyDvorkovichonFridayplayeddownthelikelihoodofacoordinatedcuttooil
production,whichcouldstallanypricerecovery.
Reutersnewsagencyquotedhimassaying:"Wetakethepositionthatouroilsectoris,toasignificantextent,private,
andiscommerciallyminded,itisnotunderthedirectcontrolofthestate.Ourmarketisgovernedbythedecisionsof
individualcompanies,andthatishowitwillcontinue."
TheCentralBanklastyearwarnedthatifoilaveraged$35perbarreloverthisyeartheeconomywouldshrinkby2-3
percent.
Separately,theCentralBankonFridayhelditskeyinterestrateat11percent,citinganincreasedriskofinflation.The
rubleonFridaywasstillaround4percentweakerthanatthestartofJanuary,raisingthecostofimportsandfuelingprice
rises.
*http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-28/opec-delegates-say-no-plan-for-
meeting-after-russia-floats-talks
OPECdelegatessaidtheyhavenomeetingplannedwithRussiaafterthecountrysEnergy
MinisterAlexanderNovakindicatedhewaswillingtomeetwiththegroupnextmonthto
coordinateoil-outputpolicy.
FourOPECrepresentativessaidtheyhadntheardofanyplanfortalks.OneGulfmembersaidde
factoleaderSaudiArabiahadnoproposaltotrimproductionby5percent,afterInterfaxreported
thecountryhadsuggestedsuchacutatpreviousOPECmeetings,citingNovak.Theminister
saidRussiawouldbewillingtodiscussoutputwithOPEC,accordingtothenewsservice.
"ItspossiblethatRussiacouldbetestingthewaterstogaugehowOPECmemberswouldrespond
totheideaofcuts,"saidJasonBordoff,directoroftheCenteronGlobalEnergyPolicyatColumbia
UniversityandaformersenioroilofficialattheWhiteHouse.
BrentoilonThursdayroseasmuch8.3percentafterNovakscommentswerereportedbefore
paringitsadvancetocloseat$33.89abarrel,athree-weekhigh.PricesonFridayextendedgains,
rising1.4percentto$34.36asof1:23p.m.HongKongtime.
Untilthisweek,Russia,whichreliesonenergyformorethan40percentofitsbudgetrevenue,had
repeatedlystateditsgoalofkeepingcrudeproductionstableevenaspricestumble.Still,this
monthspriceslumptoa12-yearlowhasputthecountryunderincreasingfinancialpressure.The
FinanceMinistrysaysthenationsbudgetdeficit,alreadyatafive-yearhighin2015,maywiden
thisyearastheroutdeepens.
TherearesignificantobstaclesinthewayofanagreementwiththeOrganizationofPetroleum
ExportingCountries.SaudiArabiaiskeentodefendmarketshareandRussiasinabilitytocut
productioninwintermonthsmakescoordinationdifficult.Russiasoiloutputissettoreachapost-
Sovietrecordof10.89millionbarrelsadayinJanuary,accordingtoBloombergcalculationsbased
onEnergyMinistrydata.
ThetwocountriesopposingviewsonSyria,whereRussiaisPresidentBasharAl-Assadsclosest
allyandSaudiArabiaseekshisremoval,presentanotherdiplomaticobstacle.
KhalidAl-Falih,thechairmanofstateenergyproducerSaudiArabianOilCo.,signaledlastweekin
Davos,Switzerland,thatthekingdomwouldpersistwithitspolicyofmaintainingproduction.
Globaloilmarketsareintheprocessofre-balancingandapricerecoveryisinevitable,hesaid.
RussiasNovaksaidThursdayinSt.PetersburgthatSaudiproposalsforacutofasmuch
as5percentatpreviousOPECmeetingsrelatedtocrude-producingnationsingeneral,not
focusingonRussia,Interfaxreported.
WhenaskedifthatproposalremainsforaproposedmeetingwithOPECinFebruary,hedeclined
tocomment,saying,thatisexactlythesubjectofdiscussion.OPECsnextscheduledmeetingis
inJune.
WiththeorganizationeffectivelyabandoningitsoutputceilinginDecember,Russiapumpingat
recordlevelsandU.S.shalefieldsprovingmoreresilientthanforecast,theglobalsurplushas
continuedtoswellandpriceshavecontinuedtofall.

Theupsideofadownruble?
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/the-upside-of-a-down-ruble/557079.htmlPresidentVladimirPutinchose
anunfortunatetimetotrumpetthe"additionalopportunities"forRussiancompaniesarisingfromaweakerruble.
AshespoketodelegatesatabusinessforumonJan.20,theRussiancurrencywasgyratingwildly.Thenextdayit
plummetedtoitslowestlevelinrecenthistory,losing4percentagainsttheU.S.dollarandthenregainingitinthespace
ofafewhours.Ataround76rublestothegreenback,theRussiancurrencyis4percentweakerthanatthestart
ofJanuary,anditsvaluehashalvedinlessthantwoyears.
Thedramaticdevaluationisusuallyseenasacalamity.Drivenbyasharpfallinoilprices,ithasmassivelyraised
thecostofanythingimportedfromoverseas,fuelinginflationandleavingmostRussianssignificantlyworseoff.
Intheory,Putincouldberightthataweakrublealsoprovideseconomicupsides.Aweakercurrencyshouldmake
Russiangoodsandservicesvastlymorecompetitivebothathomeandabroad.Thiscouldelectrifysectorsofthe
Russianeconomy.Butalackofcashforinvestmentanduncertaintyaboutthecountry'sfuturearegettingintheway.
TheweakerrublehastransformedRussia'stradewiththerestoftheworld.Russianimportsfellby$107billion,or37.7
percent,overJanuary-Novemberlastyearcomparedwiththesameperiodin2014,accordingtodatafromtheRosstat
statestatisticsservice.
AdropinimportsshouldbegoodnewsforRussiancompanies,allowingthemtostepintovacatingmarkets.Butwithreal
wagesshrinking,Russiansareconsumingless.Russianmoneytoinvestinnewproductioncapacityisinshortsupply
duetotherecessionandhighinterestrates.AndWesternfinancialsanctionsonRussiaoveritsactionsinUkrainesaw
foreigndirectinvestmentplummet92percentin2015,accordingtoUNstatistics.
Muchoftheequipmentneededtoincreasecapacityhastobeboughtfromoverseasatprohibitivelyhighprices.Andthe
ruble'sextremevolatility"makesitdifficulttotakedecisions,"saidDmitryPolevoi,chiefeconomistatINGbank.
FoodproducershaveextraincentivetoincreaseproductionfollowingRussia'sretaliatorybanonimportsofmany
Westernproducts,andoutputoffoodsincludingmeatandcheesegrewlastyear.Butthegrimeconomicoutlookstill
weighs.AU.S.businessman,whorequestedanonymity,saiddemandhadincreased,buthewasonlycautiously
expandinghisbakedgoodscompany,"notknowingwherethingsaregoingtogo."
Theweakrubleisn'thelpingyet,saidPolevoi.Potentialbenefitswouldappearonly"inthemediumtolongterm,"he
added.
Russiashouldbeabletoprofitfromexportsthathavebecomecheaperforforeignmarketssuchasweapons,rockets,
cars,naturalresourcesandgrain.Butcashinginquicklyhasproveddifficult.
Takethecarmarket.ThepriceofaRussian-madeLadaGrantasedanindealershipsstartsfromaround350,000rubles.
Inearly2014,thatwas$10,000.Now,itis$4,500ahyper-competitivepricefornearbyEurope.
Butcarscannotberolledovertheborderimmediately,saidVladimirBespalov,ananalystatVTBCapital,aRussianbank.
Timeandinvestmentwouldbeneededtolocatelocalpartnersandrampupdistributionandpromotion,butthatplan
wouldrequire2-3yearstocomplete,hesaid,duringwhichtherublecouldeasilystrengthenandwipeouttheLada'sprice
advantage.
Similarly,cheaperlaborhasreducedcostsforproducersofRussiancommoditiessuchasoil,grainsandmetals.But
newinvestmentisstrangledbysanctions.
Russia'smostdevelopedexportmarketformerSovietstatesisalsointheeconomicdoldrums.Oilproducers
KazakhstanandAzerbaijanhavesufferedfromthefallingpriceofcrude.CountrieslikeBelarusandKyrgyzstanare
closelytiedtoRussia'seconomyandhaveslumpedwithit.SanctionshaveeffectivelycutoffUkraine.
Russianarmsexportswortharound$15billionin2014havebeenhamperedbyWesternembargoes.Butpotential
buyerslikeVenezuelaandIranhavealsobeenhamstrungbylowoilpricesandarenolongerabletosplurge
onweaponry.
Inanycase,"theexportofarmsisdeterminedprimarilybypoliticalfactors"ratherthancostofproduction,saidMikhail
Barabanov,ananalystattheCenterforAnalysisofStrategiesandTechnologies.
Therealquickbeneficiaryoftheweakerrublehasbeentourism.Companiesinthetourismindustryhaveseenrevenues
increaseby30percentoverthepast18months,saidDmitryGorin,vicepresidentoftheRussianAssociationofTour
Operators.
Russiahasbecomefantasticallycheapforforeigners.Almost20percentmoreofwhomvisitedRussiain2015than
in2014drivenbyanincreaseinvisitorsfromChina,Gorinsaid.
Meanwhile,moreRussiansarestayinghome.Thoseholidayingabroadtumbledbyone-thirdin2015and7millionfewer
peopleboughtpackagetours.StillfewerRussianswilllikelyholidayabroadthisyear.Russianauthoritieshaverestricted
salesoftourstoTurkeyandEgyptwhichhostedhalfofallRussiantouristsandnoteveryonecanaffordtovisit
popularbutincreasinglyexpensivedestinationsinMediterraneancountriesorThailand.
Butwhilethegrowthisaboontothelocaltourismindustry,someRussiansmightbelesspleased.
AquarterofRussianspolledafterholidayinginRussiasaytheydidnotliketheexperience,accordingtoGorin.Rather
thanswitchtodomestictravel,manyprefertowaitandsaveuponweakrublestogoabroad,headded.
TheNemtsovinvestigationiscomplete
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russian-investigation-into-nemtsov-death-ends-5-men-charged/557535.html
RussianinvestigatorshavecompletedtheirinvestigationintofivemenaccusedofkillingofoppositionpoliticianBoris
NemtsovoutsidetheKremlinlastyear,pavingthewayfortheirtrial.
TheInvestigativeCommitteeinanonlinestatementonFridaysaidfiveChechenmenhadbeenchargedoverthemurder,
whichshockedtheworldandsentachilldownthespineofRussia'sliberalopposition.
ThemenZaurDadayev,AnzorGubashev,ShadidGubashev,TemerlanEskerkhanovandKhamzatBakhayevare
accusedofcommittingthemurderaspartofanorganizedgroupandillegallypurchasing,carrying,transportingand
storingfirearms.Asixthsuspect,BeslanShavanov,blewhimselfupwhilebeingdetainedinChechnyalastyear,the
statementsaid.
Thecollectedevidencewillnowbesenttodefenselawyersforthemen,allofwhomdenythecharges.
Thecommitteesaiditwascontinuingtoinvestigatethemanwhoitsaysorderedthehit,RuslanMukhidinov.Mukhidinov,a
27-year-oldformerofficerofaChechenpolicebattalion,isontherunandthereisaninternationalwarrantforhisarrest,
butNemtsov'slawyerVadimProkhorovhasquestionedwhetherhewasreallybehindthemurder,andsaidtherealculprit
waslikelyhigheruptheRussianpowerstructure.
Nemtsov,aformerPrimeMinisterunderBorisYeltsininthe1990s,wasgunneddowninanighttimehit-and-runattack
whilecrossingMoscowsBolshoiMoskvoretskyBridgeinFebruarylastyear.
Senttime: 01/24/201604:01:18PM
FW:[From"VladtheCommonCorroder"to"VladimirTsarofCorruption".....inState&Church]BBC/JohnSweeney/U-TUBE:AlexeiNavalny:
Subject:
'PutinistheTsarofcorruption'......Guardian/WillHutton:Litvinenko'smurdershowswhyPutin'sRUwillneverpros...
From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Sunday,January24,20167:48AM
Subject:Fwd:[From"VladtheCommonCorroder"to"VladimirTsarofCorruption".....inState&Church]BBC/JohnSweeney/U-TUBE:
AlexeiNavalny:'PutinistheTsarofcorruption'......Guardian/WillHutton:Litvinenko'smurdershowswhyPutin'sRUwillneverpros...
----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Sun,Jan24,2016at10:42AM
Subject:Fwd:[From"VladtheCommonCorroder"to"VladimirTsarofCorruption".....inState&Church]BBC/John
Sweeney/U-TUBE:AlexeiNavalny:'PutinistheTsarofcorruption'......Guardian/WillHutton:Litvinenko'smurdershowswhy
Putin'sRUwillneverprosper.......[OL]WhateverHappenedtotheRUOrthodoxChurchNewLinefromMoscow:Litvinenko
wasaTraitor&DeathwasJustPunishment
To:
Subject:[From"VladtheCommonCorroder"to"VladimirTsarofCorruption".....inState&Church]BBC/JohnSweeney/U-
TUBE:AlexeiNavalny:'PutinistheTsarofcorruption'......Guardian/WillHutton:Litvinenko'smurdershowswhyPutin'sRUwill
neverprosper.......[OL]WhateverHappenedtotheRUOrthodoxChurchNewLinefromMoscow:LitvinenkowasaTraitor&
DeathwasJustPunishment
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>
From:GBU
Date:2016-01-247:34GMT-05:00
Subject:TWOFROMUKONPUTINASTSAROFCORRUPTION
To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_Fp85WX5qQ
AlexeiNavalny:'PutinistheTsarofcorruption'
23January2016Lastupdatedat00:30GMT
Thestate-sponsoredassassinationofAlexanderLitvinenkoraisesquestionsaboutlawandorderinRussia.
OnemanwhoisanexpertonthissubjectisRussianoppositionactivistandbloggerAlexeiNavalny,whohasseveralshort
spellsinprisonunderhisbelt.
Hisbrother,Oleg,isinjailnow,on,criticssay,trumped-upchargesasapoliticalhostage.
MrNavalnyhasspokentoBBCNewsnight'sJohnSweeneyaboutLitvinenko,hisownfighttofreeRussiafromcorruption,
andwhetheritisworththerisk.
AlexanderLitvinenko
Opinion
LitvinenkosmurdershowswhyPutinsRussiawill
neverprosper
WillHuttonKEYITEMTONOTE:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lubyanka_Criminal_Group
MoscowcannevercreateaGoogle,anApple,aBBC,aSiemens:forthat,itwouldneedtheruleoflawandall
theopendemocraticstructuresthatsupportit
Litvinenko'probablymurderedonpersonal
ordersofPutin'
Readmore
SirRobertOwenslanguidupper-classvowelsandbaggyLondonclublandsuitdontcapturethe
indefatigableessenceoftheman.HerepresentsthebestoftheBritishtraditionoftheruleoflaw.
HisreportintothecircumstancesofthedeathofAlexanderLitvinenkoreleasedlastweekisa
classicofthegenrescrupulouslyevidence-based,impartialandjudicious.Itiswhatarule-of-law
societyshouldproduce.
Litvinenko,Owenjudged,wasmurderedinLondonbytheRussiangovernmentbecause,asanex-
KGBagent,andlaterofFSB(theKGBssuccessor),hehadbecomeaninfluential,vocaland
effectiveopponentofaprofoundlycorruptstatesecuritystructure.AbookbyLitvinenko
LubyankaCriminalGrouppresentedevidencethattheRussiansecurityserviceisdeeply
entwinedwithorganisedcrime,bothinRussiaandelsewhereinEurope,includingwiththemafia.
Inasecond,iflessconvincing,bookheclaimedthattheRussianservicescolludedinblowingup
apartmentblocksandblamedChechenterrorists.
AfterfleeingRussiain2000,LitvinenkohadgoneontohelpnotjustBritainsMI6,butthe
SpanishandItaliansecurityservicesinunmaskingFSBinvolvementincriminalactivity.
ButitwasonlyafterRussiaspassingofthe2006ExtremismLaw,justifyingextra-territorial
killingsofRussiansmakingallegedlylibellousstatementsaboutthegovernment,thatVladimir
Putinwasabletohitbackatamanwho,daysbeforehewaspoisoned,hadaccusedhimofbeing
bothapaedophileandthemanbehindtheassassinationofthejournalistAnnaPolitkovskya.
Owenisjudicious.Thepolonium-210thatpoisonedLitvinenkocouldonlycomefromastate
nuclearreactorandcouldonlybegiventotheFSBwiththego-aheadofPutinorhiscircle.So
strongistheback-coveringculturewithintheFSBthatthedirectorwouldonlygivethego-ahead
forhisarms-lengthoperativestokillLitvinenkowithPutinsbacking.Theneedtogetridof
Litvinenkowasacute.ButunabletointervieweitherofthetwomenwhotravelledtoLondon
allegedlytomurdertheirquarry,Owencanarriveatonlyaqualifiedconclusion:TheFSB
operationtokillMrLitvinenkowasprobablyapprovedbyPresidentPutin.
TheeventsarehorrifyingenoughanyLondonercouldhavebeenharmedbutperhapseven
moretellingisthewindowitprovidesintotodaysRussia.Thisisaworldofroutinecontract
killings,alwaysdeniablebecausetheyaredeliveredatarmslength,byastatesecurityservice
intertwinedwithclandestinegangsters.
TheKGBwasthesecuritywingoftheSovietCommunistparty.TheFSBisPutinspersonalised
securitywing.Itsjobistowreckthereputationsandevenkillallthosewhochallengethe
regime.NotevenChinamandatesthekillingofitsnationalsanywhereintheworldiftheysay
somethingthatPresidentXiJinpingconsiderslibellous.Thisisthelawnotevenofacommunist
dictatorship,butofatsar.ThereactiontoLitvinenkosdeathinMoscowwascarelesslygleeful:a
traitorhadreceivedhisjustcomeuppance.
MainstreamToryismismorePutinesquethatitcarestoadmitandourcivilsocietycan
beasvulnerableasRussias
OwensbriefbiographiesofthekeyactorsinthedramaarealsotellingtheyarefierceRussian
nationalistspassionatetoavengewhattheyportrayascumulativeslightsfromthewest.Concepts
suchastheruleoflaw,checkedandbalancedgovernment,democracyandanautonomous,self-
governingcivilsocietyarewesternvirusesthatwillonlycontaminatethehomelandandits
capacitytodowhatitneedstoextendRussiasproperplaceintheworld.Inthisclimate,theFSB
workswithanytooltohand.
Theruleoflawimpartialjudgmentsthatcanbereferredtoindependenthighercourtsbasedon
thebalanceofevidencearoundclearjurisprudentialprinciplesanddeliberativelylegislated
democraticlawisthecornerstonenotmerelyofliberty,butofprosperityandourcivilisation.
Britainisblessedbecauseitisarule-of-lawsociety.Russia,forallitsmilitarypowerandabundant
resources,isdamnedbecauseitisnot.
Russiacanusecommand-and-controleconomicstocreateaGazprom.Itcannevercreatea
Google,anApple,aBBC,aSiemensoreventheAnglo-Saxonrocknrollculture.Forthat,itwould
needtheruleoflawandalltheopendemocraticstructuresthatsupportit.Thegrowingevidenceis
thateconomiessuchasRussiasorChinascanusecommand-and-controlmechanismstogrow
intomiddle-incomeperheadcountries.Buttobecomehigh-incomepercapitacountriesis
infinitelyharder.Alltheenergiesofcivilsocietyandworkforceshavetobeharnessedtocreate
greatself-standingorganisations.These,bydevelopingtheirownpurposeandcultures,can
marshaltheimmenseamountsofinformationthatareatthecoreofthemoderneconomyand
thenproduceatscale.
Thestoriesyouneedtoread,inonehandy
email
Readmore
Yet,wecantbecomplacent:currentBritishpoliticalcultureisveryfeebleontheruleoflaw.There
wasaLitvinenkoinquiryonlybecausethegovernmentlostahighcourtcaseopposingit,fearing
theinternationalramifications(givingoffencetoRussia).Itsresponsehasbeenbeneathfeeble.
ButthenwithhonourableexceptionsMichaelGove,DominicGrieve,KenClarketodays
mainstreamconservatismismoreinterestedinentrenchingpermanentTorydominanceofthe
HouseofCommonthaninacknowledgingthecrucialroleofchecksandbalancesinupholdinga
rule-of-lawsociety.
Itwillneuterthesecondchamber,writeEuropeancourtsoutofanyroleintheBritishlegal
system,gerrymanderthenumberofseatsintheCommons,makeScottishMPssecondclassand
emasculatetheBBC.InitsaimstoTorifyBritain,itismorePutinesquethatitcaresto
acknowledgeandBritishcivilsocietycanbevulnerablejustlikeRussias.
Advertisement
Meanwhile,LabourhasnofirmergripNewLabourfloutedinternationallawtoinvadeIraqand
itsCorbynitesuccessorsshareaPutinesqueworldviewthattheperniciouswestisthesourceofall
evil.ForCorbyn,theruleoflawisanideologicalconcept,thehandmaidenofcapitalism,and
liberationmovementsworldwidearerighttodistrustitintheirstruggleagainstwestern
imperialismoritssurrogates.Topossessmilitarypowercapableofdefendingusandotherrule-of
lawsocietiesiswrongasamatterofprinciple.Putinsgangstersandcontractkillerscanbetrusted
nevertothreatenusTridentisanexpensivebauble.
AlexanderLitvinenko,dyinginagony,leftalastlettercursingPutinanddeclaringhispridein
becomingaBritishcitizenbecauseofwhatBritainstandsfor.SirRobertOwenhasdonemore
thanuncoverthetruth.Hehasofferedafiercereminderoftheimportanceoftheruleoflaw.Lets
hopeitisheededacrossourpoliticalculture.
From:OlegLitwinow<olitwin45@gmail.com>
Subject:Re:MoscowPatriarchsetsupstafftodistablizeinter-churchrelationsinUkraine
To:valroslin<valroslin@gmail.com>
Cc:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,RosaliaSametz<sametzrose@rogers.com>,GregBlysniuk
<gblysniuk@gmail.com>,VladykaYuirj<metropolitan@uocc.ca>,28MORE
Val,etal.,
Pleasealsoread"TheROCoftheMoscowPatriarchateResemblestheCommunistPartyoftheSovietUnionof
SovietTimes"forJan.21st.
TheROCismorphingfromaChurchintoabodynotunliketheCommunistPartyandconductsitsbusinessthesamewaythe
PartydidinSoviettimes.WithhisdoctrineofanewImperialOrthodoxyKirillwantstoisolatecanonicalOrthodoxyfromtherest
oftheworldinsupportoftheKremlin'sactionsinUkraineandCrimeawhilepromotingtheunityofthe"church"thepeopleandthe
state.
Likethe"prisonofnations"thatwasrunbytheCPSU,CanonicalOrthodoxyisbeingheldtogetherbytheforceofcomplianceto
MoscowbytheROCandthisisanewprisonofOrthodoxbelieverssuchasarebehindbarsinSerbia,Bulgaria,Cyprus,Istanbul,
Greece,partsofUkraine,etc.
TheUOCCbishopshavesignedontothis"prisonofnation/churches"inTorontoandinUkraine(byrecognizingthelegitimacyof
theROCthere).
Canadahasnow"comeback"andPutinwantstheoldUSSRback.Thepost-USSR,newterritoryofUkraine,accordingtohim,
isjustafreakaccident.Hisideaisthatitshouldbean"autonomous"regionofRussia,sameideanowbeingsupportedbythe
colonialROC.ButtheEPandUOCCbishopshaveagreedtonotsupporttheautonomous-mindedautocephalistsandtheir"dirty"
methods(seeEPletter).SotheEP/UOCCcollaboratorsareevenmorefundamentalistthanPutinortheCP/ROC!?
PutinlaterevengrantedtheUOC(MP)afakeautonomyinUkraine,butthisforwardmovecouldnothavepleasedtheEP
canonistcollaboratorswhopreferredtheoldandtruecolonialistchurchforUkraineandsignedontoadealtopreserveitin1990
fortheperpetualbenefitofMoscow.EvenKadyrovwouldhaveapprovedtheplansforsuchunion!
TheUSSRanditsCommunistPartyarenomore,butthelegacylivesonwiththecanonicalOrthodoxChurch,theROCandits
collaborators.
On2016-01-174:34PM,"valroslin"<valroslin@gmail.com>wrote:
WindowonEurasia,ArchiveJan16,2016."..toblocktheUniversalPatriarchfromrecognizing
theKyivChurchascanonicalandtodestabilizereligiousconditionsacrossUkraine"
SeemsPoliticaldestablizersnoteffectiveenough?(see"Someonehassmelledthecoffee"
Zarickypostings,Jan15,2016)
Saturday,January16,2016
MoscowPatriarchateSetsUpNewStafftoDestabilizeInter-ChurchRelationsin
Ukraine
PaulGoble
Staunton,January16TheMoscowPatriarchateoftheRussianOrthodoxChurchhassetupanewstaffinthesynod
departmentofexternalchurchaffairstoblackenthereputationoftheUkrainianOrthodoxChurchoftheKyivPatriarchate,to
blocktheUniversalPatriarchfromrecognizingtheKyivchurchascanonical,andtodestabilizereligiousconditionsacrossUkraine.
InanarticleonUkrinform.ruentitledTheMoscowPatriarchateasCommissarofHybridWar,KyivjournalistLana
Samokhvalovasaysthatthisstaff,headquarteredinMoscow,seekstocreatecontroversiesbetweentheOrthodoxchurchesin
UkrainesoastobeabletocomplaintotheOSCEandotherinternationalbodiesthatUkraineisreligiouslyintolerant.
ThechiefoperativeofthisMoscowstaffinUkraineistheUnionofOrthodoxJournalistswhichinfact,Samokhvalova
says,isneitheraunionorcontainjournalistsorOrthodoxfaithful.Instead,itisanFSBoperationintendedtoprovokeconflicts
betweentheMoscowPatriarchateandtheparishesoftheKyivPatriarchateandthenblamethemonthelatter.
TheKyivjournalistsaysthatsheconcludesasahypothesisthatthenewstaffhasyetanothergoal:tocreateconditionsunder
which[its]realbossVladimirPutincanatanymomentexacerbatethesituationbydeclaringthathewantstodefendcanonical
orthodoxy,andthusprovidecoverformoreRussianaggressionagainstUkraine.
Thenewstaffreferstoitselfonoccasionasadepartmentforthedefenseofthetruebelievers,althoughitisanything
butareligiousgroupwithreligiousgoals.Instead,itseekstoprovokescandals,thenexacerbatethem,andthenwiththehelpof
theombudsmenforthedefenseoftherightsofbelieversmakepoliticalcapitaloutofthembothinUkraineandabroad.
Ukrainesonlydefenseagainstthiseffort,Samokhvalovasays,is,intheshortrun,toexposeitasmuchaspossible,andin
thelongerruntocreateanationalOrthodoxchurchseparatefromMoscows.
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/01/moscow-patriarchate-sets-up-new-staff.html
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Subject:ANewLineinMoscow:LitvinenkowasaTraitorandSoHisDeathwasn'tMurderbutSimplyJust
PunishmentbyPaulGoble
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko
<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Sunday,January24,2016
ANewLineinMoscow:LitvinenkowasaTraitorandSoHisDeathwasnt
MurderbutSimplyJustPunishment
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.ca/2016/01/a-new-line-in-moscow-litvinenko-was.html
PaulGoble
Staunton,January24NowthataBritishinvestigationhasprovidedprimafacieevidencethatVladimirPutinwas
behindthemurderofAleksandrLitvinenko,aRussiannationalistsitehascomeupwithanunusualdefense:Therewasnomurder
butratherthejustpunishmentofatraitor--andsothereshouldbenotalkaboutmurderers.
TheeditorsofRusskayaNarodnayaLiniya,aportalthattakesOrthodoxRussiannationalistandStalinistpositions,says
thatbecauseLitvinenkowasatraitortohiscountryanditsfaith,hisdeathwasentirelyjustifiedanditdoesntmatterwhoordered
itorcarrieditout(ruskline.ru/news_rl/2016/01/23/ubijstvo_izmennika_eto_kara_ili_prestuplenie/).
BecauseoftheinformationwarbeingconductedagainstRussia,theeditorssay,itisnecessarytospeakthetruthand
callthingsbytheirpropernames.LitvinenkowasaseniorKGBandFSBofficeralieutenantcolonelasVladimirPutinonce
was--andviolatedhisoathbycooperatingwithforeignintelligenceservices.
Russianhistory,theycontinue,knowsmanycasesofdefectorswhofledabroadbothinSoviettimesandbeforethe
revolution,butfarfromallofthem,evenwhentheyknewstatesecretscooperatedwiththespecialservicesofstateshostileto
Russia.Litvinenko,astheEnglishspecialservicestestify,cooperatedwiththeandthatmeans[he]becameatraitor.
Consequently,whoeverkilledLitvinenko,FSBofficersastheEnglishinvestigationthinksorsomeotherforceswho
wereconcernedthatLitvinenkowillbegintotalk(therearemanyversions)isasecondaryquestioninthiscase,theRusskaya
narodnayaliniyaeditorsinsist.
InLondonatraitortoRussiawaskilled.Morethanthat,theysay,thereisevidencethatbeforehisdeathheaccepted
Islam,thusbetrayingthenationalfaithofRussia.
Thusitisappropriatetotalkaboutretributionagainstatraitorthanaboutamurderandtorefusetoengagein
speculationastowhocarrieditoutorwhoorderedit.Thatsimplydoesntmatter,thesiteargues.Someonewhodeservedtobe
executedfortreasonwasexecuted,andthatisallthatmatters.Nooneshouldthinkotherwise.
Stalinfamouslyobservednoperson,noproblem.Putinhasupdatedthattoclaimthatifakillingisnotamurder,then
therearenomurderers.ThatmayconvincesomeinRussiaandintheWestjustasStalinssuggestiondid.Attheveryleast,this
linerepresentsthelatestMoscowefforttomuddythewaters.Butultimatelyitshouldntandwontconvincemany.
Postedbypaulgobleat3:16AM
From: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 01/29/201601:17:57PM
To: kbk1267@gmail.com
Subject: Cramer:AnalystsAreBlowingItonApple
Cramer:AnalystsAreBlowingItonApple
Howdowevalueacompanythat'sjustnotlikeanyothercompany?Howdoyouputapriceonabusinessthatcurrently
hasanactiveuserbaseofmorethan1billionactivesatisfiedindividuals,afterjustaddinganother75millionofthemtothe
fold?
That'sthegreatconundrumfacingApple(AAPL),thegreatestwealth-creatingentityofourgenerationandastockinthe
ActionAlertsPLUSportfolio.It'saquandarythathighlypaidanalystsfacewhenthey,fourtimesayear,mustpeerinto
thefutureandextrapolatethecurrentsetoffactsthatApplepresentsinitsquarterlyearningsreport,thengiveinvestors
adviceaboutwhatthestockisworthversuswhatitsoldforbeforethereport.
Andformymoney,Ithinktheyareblowingit.Allofthem.
Sure,theyhavepricetargetsthattheycanmoveandmodelsthattheycanadjustandphonesthattheycancount.Those
variousinputsyieldsomeconclusionthat'sverymuchinkeepingwithotherdecisionstheymightmakeaboutany
hardwarecompany,astheyhavemadeforHP(HPQ)orEMC(EMC)orIntel(INTC).
Andwhat'sthatconclusion?Ithinkitgoeslikethis:Appleownsthecellphonemarketasitexists,andnowthatit's
forecastingthefirstdownyear,thecellphonebusinessmustbesaturated.TothemthefactthatApplesold74.8million
phonesintheDecemberquarter,anall-timehigh,signalsapeakinbusiness,notanascension.
There'snobasecampontheSummitofEverest.TheperspectivethatCEOTimCookputonthatvolume,that"it'san
averageofover34,000IPhonesanhour,24hoursaday,sevendaysaweekfor13weeks,"isjustanothernailinthe
peakcoffin.Worse,thepeak,totheseskeptics,actuallyoccurredsomewhereinmid-quarterbecausewhyelsewould
Cookpointout,"WebegantoseesomesignsofeconomicsoftnessingreaterChinaearlierthismonth,notablyinHong
Kong."
So,ifacompanywithreallyoneseriouslineofbusinessisgoingtoshowaquarter-over-quarterandperhapsyear-over-
yeardeclineinsales,thenthat'salltheywrote.Traditionalpeaksincyclesyielddecliningestimatesandashrinkingmultiple
forwhatyouaregoingtoplaceonthoseestimates.That'safactoflife.
NowitwouldbeonethingifApplehadsomethingelsetomakeupforwhatisnowviewedastheinevitableplummetin
iPhones,perhapsbyasmuchasa15%to20%unitnosediveasoneanalystpostulatedonthecall.ButiPadsaren't
sellingaswellastheyusedto,andMacsevenseemtohavereachedsomesortofpeakinunits.TheAppleWatchisdoing
wellandsoisthetelevision,butsalesarenowherenearenoughtomaskanyiPhonedeceleration.
Thatmeanstheanalystshavenocover.Theydon'twanttodowngradethestock.Itistoocheaponearnings,evenifthose
earningsaregoingdown.Ithastoomuchcash,roughly$40pershare,tooutandoutdowngradethestock--hence,why
somanykeepitahalf-heartedbuyandwishtheyhaddowngradedithigher.Itcanreturnanimmenseamountofcapital,
givingyouasizabledividendthatmightserveasatrampolineatsomelevel.Itcanshrinkthenumberofshares,financially
engineeringahigherearnings-per-sharenumberlikesomanyofitscompadres.
But,intheend,theseanalystsaretraditionalists.Theyhaveseenpeaksinmainframesthatledtodisastrousyearsforthe
oldIBM(IBM).
TheyhaveseenpeaksinmidrangecomputersthatmeanttheendtoDigitalEquipmentorYang.Theyhavewatchedas
once-proprietaryminicomputercompaniesweredestroyedbyDellandHewlett-PackardandCompaq.
Inotherwords,theyhavelearnedtheirlessonandeachseemedtoworkhardtotrytodistancethemselvesfromthe
Cupertinomonster,withthebestdamningthecompanywithfaintpraise.Iknow.Ihearditonthecall.Ifeltthatevery
analystdidhisverybesttoberespectfulandacknowledgethecompany'sgreatnesswithoutpoint-blanksayingit'sallover
buttheshouting.
IknowIeasilycouldsay,"Youknowwhat,I'mdonewithit,too.IhavelikeditsincethetwentiesandIamwillingtosay,
'Hey,itwasgreatwhileitlasted.Nicetomeetyou.'"
ButIamageneralist,notatechnologyanalyst,andIcan'tviewApplelikejustanotherhardwarecompany.WhenIdidn't
likemyDellorsawacheaperdealinaHewlett-Packard,Iswitched.Whattheheck.Theyarebarelydifferent
toothpastes,aren'tthey?
Worse,givenhowmanytimesyouheardthetermmacroonthecall,youcouldtellthattheupsettingworld,theweakness
andturmoileverywhere,makesananalogytotoothpastetooglib.That'sasmallpurchaseandyoucantradedown.
Peoplearespending$691foraphone,upfrom$687ayearagodespitethesuper-freakingstrongdollar.
Andthat'swhenithitme.EveryotherinternationalcompanyIdealwithhasfounditalmostimpossibletoraisepriceinthis
environment.AlmosteveryAmericancompanyhashadtodealwithforeignexchangeratiosthathaveperseloweredthe
averagepriceofwhateverthehecktheywereselling,includingtoothpaste.
ButAppledidn't.
Why?
Brandloyalty.
Foramoment,though,Isaid,maybethisisadeadend.Imean,Lexushasgreatbrandloyalty.SodoesBMW.Butifthe
worldissaturatedwithautos,thenwhocares?
ThenIfiguredthatmaybeAppleisliketobacco--there'sabrandaddiction.Buttobaccoisprettyinterchangeableeven
asitmightbeshrinkingingrowth,astheanalyststhinkAppleis.
Howaboutadrugcompany?MaybeApple'siPhoneislikeLipitor,thegreatestdrugever.Youhadtotakeit.Butthen
again,Lipitor'spatentranout,andthatleftyouholdingsharesinacompanythathadpeakearnings.Althoughevenat
peak,youwerepaying13xearningsbecausetherewereotherdrugs--considerthemtheiPad,likeViagra--tooffsetthe
patentcliff.That'sbecausethere'snoeconomicsensitivitytoPfizer's(PFE)products,buttherearetoApple'sforcertain,
justnotasmuchasyouthinkbecausetheyareaddictiveonceyouownone.Still,Ithoughtitworkedearlier,soIthrewit
outthere.
Andthenithitme.Weactuallyhaveametricthatcanexplainandmonetizethevalueofbrandloyalty.Theyjustdidn't
explainitthatway.IamtalkingabouttheslideintheAppledeckcalled"servicerevenue,"whichshowedthatinstalled
baserevenues--theonesweallpayforiTunes,music,theappstorelicensing,serviceparts,iCloudandApplePay--are
growingatanincredible23%yearoveryear,from$25billioninfiscal2014to$31.2billioninfiscal2015.
That'sthenumberthatweneedtokeyon,notunitdevices.That'stherazorbladestreamforApple.Exceptunlike
Gillette'srazorstream,brandloyaltyissogreatyouaren'tgoingtouseBarbasolshavingcreamorswitchtotheSchick
Quattro.
Youarein.
IhavealwaysquestionedtheconceptoftheecosystemofApple.Imean,sowhat?IhavealwayssaidthatIdolikethe
razorblademodel,butthatatacertainpointyouaregoingtoseeresistancetothepriceoftherazor,whichhishappening
now.Butthehighergrossmarginsandthehigherpricespaidforphonestellmethereisnoresistance.
NowIknowthatApplehasthat$40billionincash.Iknowitcanmake$9inearnings.Iknowthatsomewouldregard
thataspeak.ButwhathappensifthepeoplewhoareswitchingsorapidlytoApplefromotherbrands,oraretradingup
inAmericaorstartingoutinChinaandtheincrediblyyoungerdemographicnIndia--under27yearsold--getas
comfortableasweallareintheecosystem?
Thatmeanstherazorbladerevenue,therealhighgrossmarginstuffthatyougetfromGilletteorAppleforthatmatter,isn't
gettingnearlyenoughcreditasitshould,especiallyatthatgrowthrate.
SomaybeAppledoesn'tneedthewatchtotrumpphonesales,TVforthatmatter.Maybeitjustneedstokeepselling
moredevicesandlettheservicestreamdothetalking.Bythistimenextyear,itwouldn'tshockmeifthatweren'ttheline
itemtokeyon,especiallywithaniPhone7aroundthecorner.
Ifthat'sthecase,guesswhat?Youaregettinganincrediblebargainwiththisstockevenasallwehearaboutisthatit'sall
overbuttheshouting.Maybe,justmaybe,whenwegettheinevitabledowngradesandtheanalyststakeitevenloweras
wegetawayfromtheblastzonenumber,youwillseethatthisstreamistheoneworthowningthestockforwhenothers
arethrowingitaway.Allthemorereasonthat,onstillonemoremiserabledayforthemarket,IsayownApple,don't
tradeit.
GetanemailalerteachtimeIwriteanarticleforRealMoney.Clickthe"+Follow"nexttomybylinetothis
article.
SentfrommyiPad
Senttime: 01/22/201611:53:00AM
FW:[JDDD1-22]"Mr.PutinandthePOISONOUSLondontea/party/&8MORESTORIES....WDVLAD-O-RAMAPLUSUA:1in4Russians
Subject:
AfraidtoTellTruthtoPollstersKlitschkoinDavos:RUHybridWarThreattoAllNoPlaceforJoyinMoscowPP:UAForced...
Subject:Fwd:[JDDD1-22]"Mr.PutinandthePOISONOUSLondontea/party/&8MORESTORIES....WDVLAD-O-RAMAPLUSUA:1in
4RussiansAfraidtoTellTruthtoPollstersKlitschkoinDavos:RUHybridWarThreattoAllNoPlaceforJoyinMoscowPP:UAForced
...
Date:Fri,Jan22,2016at1:38PM
Subject:[JDDD1-22]"Mr.PutinandthePOISONOUSLondontea/party/&8MORESTORIES....WDVLAD-O-RAMA
PLUSUA:1in4RussiansAfraidtoTellTruthtoPollstersKlitschkoinDavos:RUHybridWarThreattoAllNoPlaceforJoyin
MoscowPP:UAForcedbyRUtoSpent5%ofGDPonDefenseRU'sEndgameinUAPaulG'sBaker'sDozenofRUStories
......[FINALLY....HILARIOUS:RIYF]ForeignOfficeurgesMoscowtocarryoutUKassassinationslessconspicuously
From:JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Date:Fri,Jan22,2016at11:54AM
Subject:TheEditorialBoardoftheNewYorkTimes:"Mr.PutinandthePOISONOUSLondontea/party/,"nytimes.com,1/22
TheOpinionpages
To:"howard@jamestown.org"<howard@jamestown.org>
Cc:"paul.goble@gmail.com"<paul.goble@gmail.com>,"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
TheEditorialBoardoftheNewYorkTimes:"Mr.PutinandthePOISONOUSLondontea/party/,"
nytimes.com,1/22TheOpinionpages
reinforcessuspicionsthathecouldeasilyhavebeeninvolvedinthe[Litvinenko]murder.Attheveryleast,
theLondoninquiry,howevermuchitisdeniedattheKremlin,shouldserveasaCAUTIONtothe
And:KERRY[atDavos]sayseffortandgoodfaith[!]couldleadtoliftingofSANCTIONSonRussia
[inthecomingmonths],reuters.com,1/22
And:RussianSANCTIONScouldbegoneinafewmonths,JohnKerry
says,http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/22/news/russia-ukraine-sanctions-john-kerry-davos/
DetaileddiscussionoftheNuland-Surkovbrainstormingsessionanditsimplications.
And:Ukrainianarmyreports69[!]strikesonitspositionsinDonbas[overthepast
day],http://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/690565240556253185
And:FinancialTimes:VladimirPutinproposedtoAssadthathegointo
retirement,http://www.newsru.com/world/22jan2016/offer_print.htmlPeskovhasdeniedtheFinancial
Timesreport.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/01/donald-trump-foreign-policy-213546?o=2
withPutin.
And:KarinaORLOVA,ReplytoTonyaSamsonova,http://echo.msk.ru/blog/karina_orlova/1698520-
echo/
SamsonovahaddefendedtheregimesassassinationofLitvinenko.TheUSandotherstatesdoitwhy
cantRussia?Orlova:Theresponsehereissimple.WhenBarakObamaordersBinLadenkilledhe
doesittotheheadofAlQaedawhichcarriedouttheterroristactof9/11Butwhatterroristactdid
Litvinenkocommit?...WhatlawwasadoptedpermittingLitvinenkotobekilledwithinalegal
framework?
And:AleksandrSOLDATOV,Should[RussianOrthodox]BANKSexist?Andwhatdoesitsignifyif
thesebankshaveproblems?http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/71529.html?print=1
Subject:OneRussianinFourAfraidtoTellPollsterstheTruth-andOneinTwoSayMostRussiansDon't
WindowonEurasia--NewSeries
Friday,January22,2016
OneRussianinFourAfraidtoTellPollsterstheTruthandOneinTwoSay
MostRussiansDont
PaulGoble
Staunton,January22RoughlyaquarterofallRussians--26percent--areafraidtoexpresstheirpersonalopinionsto
sociologistsaboutcurrentRussianeventsandslightlyunderhalf--49percent--saythatmostRussiansareunwillingtodoso
becausetheyfearnegativeconsequencesforthemselves,accordingtoanewLevadaCentersurvey.
WhilesuchfindingsmightappearfallunderthelogicalcategoryofallCretansareliars,saidoneCretantoanother,
theywilladdfueltothedebateastohowconfidentanyonecanbeaboutpollresultsfromRussia,withsomedismissingthefindings
asinherentlyflawedandothersarguingthattheyprovideatleastsomeguidance.
AccordingtoanarticleintodaysKommersant,theLevadaCenterpollstersfallinthelattercategory,tellingthe
Moscownewspapersjournaliststhatsuchreluctancetotellthetruthtopolltakersprobablydoesntaffecttheresultsasfaras
Putinsstandingisconcernedbymorethanfivepercentonewayortheother(kommersant.ru/doc/2897562).
Justoverhalf--56percentofthosewhosaidRussiansareunwillingtotellthetruthsaidthatwasthecasebecause
peoplefearnegativeconsequencesforthemselves.Another20percentsuggestedthattheydidsobecausethetruthwas
unwelcomeorunpleasantforthem,andninepercentsuggestedthatrespondentsfeardisapprovalbythepollster.
AlekseyGrazhdankin,thedeputydirectoroftheLevadaCenter,saysPutinissupportedbythesilentmajoritywhich
takepartindiscussionsonsocialnetworksoramongcolleagueslessactivelythandoopponentsoftheauthorities.Atthesame
time,hecontinues,peoplewithoppositionviewsreallymoreoftenthanothersareafraidtosaywhattheythink.
Commentingonthesefindings,MoscowpoliticalanalystKonstantinKalachyevsaysthattheproblemofsocially
approvedanswersisnothingnew.Ithasbeenaroundforsometimeandiscalledthespiralofsilence.Peoplefollowthemajority
andfearsettingthemselvesapartandansweringwithready-madepositivemantras.
Hesuggeststhatsociologistscangetmorereliableresultsfromfocusgroupsorin-depthinterviews.Andhesuggests
thatanotherproblem,perhapsevenlarger,isthattheanswerspeoplegivereflectthewayinwhichthequestionsofthepolltakers
areformed.
Kalachyevgivesthefollowingexamples:OneandthesameindividualmayrespondtothequestionHowhasPutin
dealtwiththeproblemoftherublesfall?withthewordpoorlyandsayyestothequestionDoyouapprovehisactivityas
president?OrhewillanswerpositivelyatoneandthesametimetoquestionslikeAreyouforfriendshipofthepeoples?and
DoyouagreethatRussiashouldbefortheRussians?
Subject:KlitschkoinDavos:wholecivilizedworldisfacing[RU]hybridthreats[nowplaguingUA]
From:foreign-journalistspressudar@googlegroups.com[mailto:foreign-journalistspressudar@googlegroups.com]OnBehalfOf????-
???????????????????????????????????????
Sent:January22,201612:37PM
To:foreignjournalists.pressUDAR
Subject:KlitschkoinDavos:wholecivilizedworldisfacinghybridthreats
KlitschkoinDavos:wholecivilizedworldisfacinghybridthreats
Todayonecannothelpnoticinghybridthreatsandpretendthateverythingisfine,astheyarealreadyattheverybordersofEurope,
themayorofKyivVitaliKlitschkosaidatthediscussionConfrontinghybridthreatsattheWorldeconomicforuminDavos.
Atthisstage,mycountryfeelsmostacutelythesehybridthreats.YouallknowabouttheconflictintheDonbasandtheannexationof
Crimea.Thereasonforthoseisthefactthatforalongtimetheworldwasreluctanttonoticegrowingtrendsofhybridthreats.Nowone
cannothelpnoticingthem,asthesethreatsarealreadyattheverybordersofEurope,Kyivmayorsaid.
KlitschkoissurethattheglobalsecuritysystemwhichwasformedafterWorldWarIIdoesnothavetimetorespondtothreats
immediatelyandadequately.Thatiswhywearefacingtheneedtoreformandcreateanewsystemofglobalsecurity,asaggressive
separatismandterrorismbegintodestroyglobalpeaceandtranquilitymoreandmoreoften.Andnoonecanpretendthateverythingis
fineanymore,becausethewholecivilizedworldisfacinghybridthreats,politicianstressed.
AndthatiswhyweshouldreformtheUnitedNationssoasnottoallowitturnitintotheLeagueofNations,andmakeitfunctionto
effectivelyensureglobalsecurity.Itisalsoveryimportanttostartatrulyglobalfightagainstterrorism.Andforthat,too,thereisaneed
todevelopaneffectivemechanism,preferablywithintheframeworkoftheUNO.Oncewesucceedinthis,anewimpetusto
developmentoftheglobaleconomywillappear,VitaliKlitschkoemphasized.
http://kiev.klichko.org/news/?id=1600&lang=eng
--
,"foreignjournalists.pressUDAR".
,
foreign-journalistspressudar+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com.
,http://groups.google.com/d/optout.

Subject:THERE'SNOPLACEFORJOYINTODAY'SMOSCOW
THERESNOPLACEFORJOYINTODAYS
MOSCOW
SERGEILEBEDEVMOURNSACITYSEALEDINSILENCE
January20,2016BySergeiLebedev
http://lithub.com/theres-no-place-for-joy-in-todays-moscow/
Moscowisemptyingout.Friends,oldflames,areleaving.Theresastrangelightinfamiliar
windows.Eventhecityitself,asaspaceofthememory,belongsnowtoapastepoch,estranged
frommanyofuswhoremain.
WalkingthestreetsoftheRussiancapitaltoday,thoseofuswhowereborninthe1970sand
80srealizewewereborninacountrythatnolongerexists.Wecameofageofthe90s,whenthe
Russiathatexistedthencametousfreely,withoutconditions,likeagiftfromhistory.Wewere
spoiledbyfatewefeltitwasenoughtoexpressourselvesininformalsignsofcommunitywe
wavedwhiteribbonsin2011toprotestflawedelections,butdiscoveredthatribbonswereno
matchforredtapethanininstitutionalformsofsolidarityanddemocracy:westartedfew
politicalparties,joinedpowerinfewprofessionalunionsorpublicorganizations.Andsoitturned
outitwasenoughfortheatmospheretochange,andallofasuddenourgenerationcouldonly
watchhistoryclosedinonus.
Today,itcanbesaidthathistoryisnolongerthepast,butiswalkingeachstepwithus.We
increasinglyperceiveuncomfortableparallelswiththe1920sand30s.Thatwedebatewhichage
wereclosertotheterrorofLeninortheterrorofStalinspeaksvolumesaboutourpresent
situation.
ThereareimagesoflifeinMoscowtodaywhichrecallimagesfromanearliertime:Thehouseis
sealedinsilencenow/Onlythetickingoftheclock./Butthehandwonttouchtheswitch/The
lightdisturbstheanguish.Theselineswerewrittenbymygreataunt,TatyanaLebedeva,afew
yearsbeforeshediedofstarvationduringtheSiegeofLeningrad.Herbodywouldbeburiedina
massgraveinoneofthecitycemeteries.Herapartmentwouldberansacked,herbelongingswould
disappear,andtherewouldremainonlyaslimnotebookfilledwithpoetry,safeguardedbyafriend.
ThehouseissealedinsilencenowThepoemwasdedicatedtoapartingwithabeloved,but
timeimpingesuponlanguage,prescribesverbs:sealed.Becauseinthesamemonthsasthepoem
waswritten,theSovietNKVDsecretpolicehadsealedtheapartmentsofthearrestedexiting
ontothestairwell,peoplesawwaxstampsontheirneighborsdoors,doorsofapartmentsfrom
whenceresidentshadbeenledaway.
ThehouseissealedinsilencenowAttheendofthe90s,havingfalleninlovemyself,Iread
theselines,andthemetaphorseemedstriking.Today,15yearslater,itnolongerseemsso.Itis:its
myhousethatsbeensealedinsilence.
Thefirstthingthatlosesitsvoiceisjoy.Youareswimminginthecurrentofnews.Atfirstit
horrifiesyou:whetheritswordofyetanotherraidontheofficesofahumanrightsorganizationor
alawlessarrest,youfeelanger,alarm,indignation,fear.Thenthefeelingssubside.Yougetusedto
them.ButnonethelesstheresjustnoplaceforjoyintodaysMoscow.Atleastnotforsober-
thinkingpeople,despitethefabulous(thoughshrinking)wealththathasbeenamassedbyaprecious
fewlifetransformsintoexhaustingslogsalongdarkKafkaesquecorridors.
Thenyourfriendsdisappear.In1998,havingfinishedhighschool,Ithoughtseriouslyaboutjoining
thearmy.Myolderfriend,havingservedinthespecialforces,gavemeacopyofSvetlana
AlexievichsZinkyBoys:SovietVoicesfromtheAfghanistanWar.Hehandedittomeandsaid,
Readthisbeforeyoudecide.Ireadit.AndIforeverpartedwayswithromanticnotionsofwar.
WhenAlexievichreceivedtheNobelPrizeinLiteraturethispastOctober,thesamemanwhod
onceperformedafeatthathadinawaysetthecourseofmylifethatsamemansaidthat
Alexievichsbooksarealllies,thatsheslandersRussia(presumably,intheserviceoftheWest).
Manypeopleclingtothisinvertedpictureoftheworld,ifonlysoasnottofeelastrident
lonelinessinthemidstofgeneralunity.
Othersarereadytoplungeintotheecstasyofpower,theardorofloyaltyanythingsolongasthey
dontfeeltheoncominggloom.Andmany,ofcourse,arereadytoacceptonceagainthepropaganda
ofRussiaarisingfromitsknees,Sherises!forthatwayatleasttherecanbeanersatzfuture.
Thesearchforhistoricalanaloguesinvariablyleadsto1937,theyearoftheGreatTerror,whenthe
mechanismofrepressionwasbuiltontheapplicationofdirectforcearrests,exile,executions
entirestrataofthepopulationwerecrossedout,subtractedfromexistence.
Buttodaythepracticeoflarge-scaledirectviolenceisnolongercalledfor.Withmuchsuccess,the
softviolenceofthemediahastakenitsplaceasophisticatedbrainwashinghasadvancedtoa
degreethatStalinsgovernmentcouldneverhavedreamedof.Afterall,by1937theliteracyratein
Russiawas75percentnoweverybodycanwatch(state-controlled)TV.
ThosearrestedduringtheMoscowprotestsagainstPutinsgovernmentinthespringof2012
generallyreceivedjustafewyearsofprisontime.TheUkrainianfilmmakerOlegSentsov,arrested
twoyearslaterinCrimea,gotputbehindbarsfor20years.Thedifferenceinseveritycantbe
explainedbythelegalcode.Thiswasasignal,asignofthenewtimes,anewyardstickofriskand
fear.
AndwhatsmostimportantisthattodaysRussiaalreadyhasbehindher,inthechainof
generations,agianttraumathatgetspassedonanew.Thephysicalterrorofthe1930sisnolonger
necessaryinMoscow.Itsenoughforthepasttokeepremindingusofitselfinordertoactualize
thisatavisticfearitisrepressionsimplybymeansofthepainfulmemoryofrepression.Thusfora
personwhowastorturedlongago,itsenoughfromtimetotimetohearthevoiceofhistorturer,to
hearthatintonationforgottenlongago,inordertoagainlosethestrengthandthewillforprotest.
PerhapsthatsonereasonwhyPutinhassetaboutrevivingStalinsreputationinhistorytextbooks
usedbychildrenallaroundRussia.
Moscowhasnowbecomethathousesealedinsilence.Andweareincreasinglyafraidtotouchthe
switchandilluminatethedarkcornersofthiscity.
Subject:PoroshenkosaysunpredictableRussiamakesUkrainespend5%ofGDPondefense
PoroshenkosaysunpredictableRussiamakesUkrainespend5%ofGDPondefense
21.01.2016|23:424
http://www.unian.info/politics/1243255-poroshenko-says-unpredictable-russia-makes-ukraine-spend-5-of-gdp-on-defense.html?
UkrainianPresidentPetroPoroshenkosaysthattheunpredictabilityofRussiamakesUkrainespend5%ofitsGDPondefense
andsecurity,accordingtoBloombergTV.
PoroshenkosaysthatareductioninmilitaryexpenditureisbetterforRussiaanditsneighbours/PhotofromUNIAN"Frommy
pointofview,Russiashouldbeapredictablecountry.UntilnownobodycanpredicthowthesituationwillbedevelopinginSyria,
nobodycanpredicthowthesituationwillbedevelopinginUkrainethat'swhyweshouldspend5%ofourGDPonoursecurity
anddefenseprogramjusttobuildouteffectivearmedforces,justtostopRussianaggressionandnottomakeharmlessRussia's
unpredictability,"hetoldBloombergTVonthesidelinesoftheWorldEconomicForuminDavos,Switzerland.Poroshenkoalso
saidthathedoubtsthattherewasadirectlinkbetweenthepresentoilfallingandRussia'scapacitytoengageinescalationin
Donbasfurther."ThelessmoneyRussiacouldspendonmilitaryexpenditure,thebetteritisbetterforRussia,betterforthe
neighbors,andbetterforthewholeglobalsecurity,"hesaid.
Subject:RussiaPushingforAnEndgameinUkraine
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,Walter
Derzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
MOSCOWTIMES:RussiaPushingforAnEndgameinUkraine
MatthewBodnerJan.21201611:15Lastedited11:15
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/news/article/russia-pushing-for-an-endgamein-ukraine/556437.html
MaximShemetov/ReutersTheappearanceofoneofPresidentVladimirPutin'smostenigmaticassociates,VladislavSurkov,ata
meetingwithU.S.AssistantSecretaryofStateVictoriaNulandlastFridayhassparkedspeculationthatMoscowandWashington
areapproachinganendgameinUkraineaftertwoyearsofconflict."ThatiswasSurkov,andnot[DeputyForeignMinister
Grigory]KarasinNuland'scounterpartisverysignificant,"saidforeignaffairsexpertVladimirFrolov."Surkovisakey
decision-makerontheDonbasswiththeauthoritytomaketacticaladjustmentstotheRussianposition."
ThoughhehasallegedlybeenamajorplayerinthecraftingandmanagingofRussia'sUkrainepolicyoverthepasttwoyears,
Surkovtendstooperatebehindthescenes.Hehasofficiallynottakenpartinanyprevioushigh-levelnegotiationswiththeUnited
States,untilnow.AnalystssaidSurkov'sinvolvementindicatesRussiaistryingnowtobringaresolutiontotheongoingconflictin
UkraineasameansofseekingrelieffromWesternsanctionswhichhavecombinedwithacollapseinglobaloilpricestodeal
realdamagetotheRussianeconomy.
UndertheRadar
BoththeU.S.StateDepartmentandtheRussianForeignMinistryhavebeenrelativelysilentwithregardstothesubstanceof
Nuland'smeetingwithSurkovaseniorRussiangovernmentfigureandclosePutinassociatewhowasamongthefirstplacedon
theU.S.sanctionslistin2014.Surkovtoldreportersthatthemeetingwasessentiallya"brainstorming"sessiononpossible
compromisesthatwouldallowtheMinskIIagreements,signedinFebruary2015,tofinallybeimplementedandthecrisisdrawn
toaclose.StateDepartmentspokesmanJohnKirbysaidafterthemeetingonFridaythat"[Surkov]istheappropriatepersonin
[theRussian]government[withwhom]tohavethisdiscussionaboutMinskimplementation."
Kirbysaidonlythatthetwodiscussed"thesituationineasternUkraineandtheneedforafullimplementationoftheMinsk
agreements,"hesaid,addingthatthetalkswereconstructiveanddesignedtosupportongoinginternationalnegotiationstobringthe
crisistoaclose.EndgameontheHorizon?ThenatureofSurkovandNuland'smeeting,aswellasthelackofofficialchatteror
evenleakstothemediaaboutthesubstanceofthediscussions,indicatesthatrealnegotiationsaretakingplace,accordingto
Dr.MarkGaleotti,aRussianforeignandsecurityaffairsexpert."NulandisnotonetosparetheRussiansblushes,soiftheyfelt
theygotnowhere,eithershewouldhavesaidsoorbynowthatwouldhavebeenleakedandcommonsensewouldsuggestthat
Russiaoughttobelookingforsomekindofexitstrategy,"Galeottisaid.
TheDonbassproject,comprisedoftheaspirationalLuhanskandDonetskPeople'sRepublics,hasbeenanexpensivefailure.The
UkrainiangovernmentinKievremainsinpower,andRussianinvolvementintheconflicthasnotresultedinanydecisiveoutcome
fortherebels.
Source:UkraineNationalSecurity&DefenseCouncil
Cease-firelinesinEasternUkraineasenvisionedbyMinskagreements
AndthereareothersignalsthatRussiaisnowgettingseriousaboutadeal,suchastheappointmentofBorisGryzlovasenior
memberoftheRussiannationalsecuritycouncilasMoscow'srepresentativetotheinternationalcontactgroupsupervising
Minskimplementation.
"[Gryzlov]maynotbeadecisionmaker,buthe'satrustedexecutor,andhe'ssomeonewithacertainamountofpoliticalclout
whichiswhatyou'dneedtosealthedeal,"saidGaleotti.AlthoughtheKremlinappearstobepositioningitselfforadealwiththe
West,obstaclestotheimplementationoftheMinskIIagreementremain.AmongthelistofpotentialspoilersaretheRussian
people,whohavespentthelasttwoyearswatchingamediawaragainstneo-fascisminKiev.
AnalystssaidthattheKremlin'sstatemediamachinewouldmostlikelykeepUkraineoutoftheheadlinesafterpresentinga
"missionaccomplished"scenariointheDonbassthefascistsweredefeated,theregionisreadytointegratewithKiev.ButKiev
itselfmayyetundermineadeal.
AspartoftheMinskIIagreements,Ukraineagreedtoamendtheirconstitutiontoprovidefortheself-governanceofthepro-
RussianLuhanskandDonetskregions.Inexchange,UkrainewouldbegivenfullcontrolofitsborderwithRussia.TheUkrainian
legislatureisexpectedtovoteontheseamendmentsinthenextseveralweeks,butRussiahasalreadysoundedthealarmthatKiev
isnotfullylivinguptoitsendofthebargainthelawaswrittenisonlypartofatransitionalconstitution,Putinsaid.
AccordingtoAlexeiChesnakov,aRussianpoliticalanalystandformerKremlinstaffer,oneofthetopicsoftheSurkov-Nuland
meetingwashowtofixaUkrainianelectionlawandlawonself-governancefortheDonbass.Ascurrentlywritten,"theself-
proclaimedrepublicsandRussiawillnotrecognizetheamendment,"hesaid.ButFrolovarguedthatMoscowislikelyusingthe
meetingstolobbytheWesttopressureKievintosettlingtheconflictonMoscow'stermsacceptingthattheregionswillremain
permanentlyautonomousinafederalizedUkraine."Ifthatprovedimpossible,thenthesecondoptionistogettheWestto
acknowledgethatthewholehouseofcardscollapsedthroughnofaultofRussia's,butbecauseUkrainewasunreasonable,"he
said.Ukraine,accordingtothislogic,wouldberesponsibleforMinsk'sfailure.Russia,therefore,wouldbeoffthehook,and
sanctionscouldbelifted."Mysenseisthatthelatterismorelikelythantheformer,"leavingtheDonbassconflictinadeepfreeze,
Frolovconcluded.
ButtherearealreadysignsthatMoscowisabandoningtheDonbassrebelsinordertobringanendtotheconflictandWestern
sanctions.Apro-rebelactivist,VladimirGarnachuk,wroteonhisFacebookpageTuesdayeveningthattheDonbassprojecthas
lostmomentum.
"Alreadynooneisinterestedinwhatpeopletherefoughtanddiedfor.Welostthiswar.Andthebitterheartburnofthislosswillbe
releasedinthenearfuture,"Garnachukconcluded.
Subject:ABaker'sDozenofNeglectedRussianStories-No.20
ABakersDozenofNeglectedRussianStoriesNo.20
PaulGoble
Staunton,January22--Thefloodofnewsstoriesfromacountryaslarge,diverseandstrangeastheRussian
Federationoftenappearstobeisfartoolargeforanyonetokeepupwith.Butthereneedstobeawaytomark
thosewhichcantbediscussedindetailbutwhicharetooindicativeofbroaderdevelopmentstoignore
Consequently,WindowsonEurasiawillpresentaselectionof13oftheseotherandtypicallyneglectedstories
attheendofeachweek.Thisisthetwentiethsuchcompilation.Itisonlysuggestiveandfarfromcomplete
indeed,thisweekonceagain,onecouldhaveputoutsuchalistingeveryday--butperhapsoneormoreofthese
storieswillproveofbroaderinterest.
1.BetteraFifthColumnthanaFourthReich!EventhoughtheMoscowauthoritieshaverefusedtogive
permissionforamarchintheRussiancapitalagainstRamzanKadyrov,activistsareturningtotheInternetto
spreadtheirfearsandtooffersloganslikethisoneforotherstoconsider(facebook.com/photo.php?
fbid=10153142416462434&set=a.10151105726772434.416368.644037433&type=3&theater).
2.OnlyaNewOPEC-StyleCartelCouldRestoreOilPricesandSaveRussia,MoscowAnalystSays.
AccordingtoaMoscowanalyst,RussianeedstoexplorethepossibilitiesofcreatinganewOPEC-stylecartelas
ameansofboostingthepriceofoilandthusgettingRussiaoutofitscurrenteconomicdifficulties
(ng.ru/economics/2016-01-20/4_oil.html).
3.TalkaboutPuttingOffDumaElectionsSpreads.URA.rureportsthatsomeDumamembersarenowtalking
aboutdelayingRussiasparliamentaryelectionsbecauseofthecrisis.Campaignswouldonlygetinthewayof
addressingRussiasrealproblemsandpopulistproposalscouldmakethesituationworse,theysuggest
(ura.ru/articles/1036266839).
4.WithPutinsRussia,AnEntryVisaisntNearlyEnough.Asnewcourtcasesshow,manyforeignersinRussia
entirelylegallyarefindingitdifficulttoleavethecountry,anindicationProfilesuggeststhatexitvisasevenforthem
arebeingintroducedonadefactobasis(profile.ru/obsch/item/103288-zalozhniki-v-gostyakh).
5.RussianProstitutesNowBarteringTheirServicesAndOtherSignsofRussiasDistress.Theeconomic
crisishashitmanyRussiangroups,includingprostitutes,whohaveseendemandfall,havebeenforcedtolower
theirprices,andnowareevenwillingtoacceptbarterarrangements(mk.ru/social/2016/01/22/rossiyskie-
prostitutki-izza-krizisa-pereshli-na-barter.htmlandura.ru/articles/1036266823).Othersignsofhowbadthingsare
becomingincludeanannouncementbythegovernmentnewsagencyTASSthatitwontbeabletopayhonoraria
onatimelybasis(meduza.io/news/2016/01/20/v-tasse-nachali-zaderzhivat-zarplatu)andtherequirementthat
passengersnowpayforWIFIatMoscowsSheremetyevoairport(kasparov.ru/material.php?id=5699415841000).
Butinareminderthatthereisnobadwithoutsomegood,thecollapseoftherublehaspushedupheroinpriceson
thestreetsofRussiancitiesandlikelyreducedconsumptionofthatillegaldrug(interfax.ru/business/489553).
6.MorethanOneMillionRussiansNowInfectedwithHIVVirus.InasignoftheRussiangovernments
misplacedpriorities,includingspendingahigherpercentageofitsGDPonarmsthananyothercountryand
cuttingmedicalprograms,morethanamillionRussiansarenowinfectedwithHIVandmanyarenotbeingtreated
(echo.msk.ru/blog/karina_orlova/1697842-echo/).Otherexamplesofthismistakensetofchoicesincludethe
governmentsshutteringofaprogramthathadbeenhelpingMoscowshomeless
(novayagazeta.ru/society/71463.html)andtheclosureof340publiclibrariesinthepast12months
(philologist.livejournal.com/8127745.html).
7.OnlyFiveItelmenSpeakersLeft.OnlyfivenativespeakersofItelmensurvive,andyoungpeoplewhowantto
learnthelanguagehavehadtoturntorecordingsandtheInternet,astatisticthatmakesamockeryofValery
TishkovsupbeatstatementsaboutRussiassupportofminoritylanguagesandpeoples
(unmultimedia.org/radio/russian/archives/209197/#.VqH1hlJ0e-
dandwindowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/01/crimea-annexation-restored-ethnic.html).Meanwhile,inTuva,
officialssaythatmembersofthatnationalityneedfivelanguagestobesuccessful(tuva.asia/news/tuva/8430-
bavuu-syuryun.html).
8.KadyrovWantsForcedPsychiatricTreatmentofOppositionFigures.RamzanKadyrovhasproposed
incarceratingmembersoftheRussianoppositioninpsychiatrichospitalsmuchastheSovietsdidalthoughhehas
notyetre-introducedthetermsluggishschizophreniatodescribetheirmedicalcondition
(grani.ru/War/Chechnya/m.247813.html).Russianofficialsarentfarbehindhim:theywanttoexpandthedefinition
offoreignagentstoincludeanyonewhocriticizesthePutinregimeevenifheorshedoesntgetmoneyfrom
abroad(rbc.ru/politics/22/01/2016/56a1cb429a794748d2757a39andtheins.ru/news/18785).AndtheFSBin
occupiedCrimeaisnowinsistingthatthepostalservicereportonlettersanyoneonalistofopponentsreceivesas
awayofcontrollingtheopposition(grani.ru/Politics/World/Europe/Ukraine/m.247942.html).
9.AcademyofSciencesPresidentTellsPutinthatRussianSciencehasFallentotheLevelofIrans.Vladimir
PutinsdenunciationofLeninforlayingadelayedactionminethatledtothedestructionoftheUSSRattractedfar
moreattention,butatthesamemeeting,theheadoftheRussianAcademyofSciencespointedoutthatRussian
sciencehascollapsedoverthelasttwodecadesandnowranksnobetterthanthatofIrans,atrendthatmaybe
farmorefatefulforthefuture(rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/56a0d2929a7947f070f00bc7).
10.AllAnimalsareEqualbutSomeareMoreEqualthanOthers.InyetanotherwaythatthePutinregimeis
becomingevermoreOrwellian,childrenofwell-offparentsarenowbeingfedbetterthanthosefrompoorfamilies
insomeschools(medialeaks.ru/news/1501okh_sa).
11.BirobidzhanReadytoTakeinJewsButTheyDontSeemtoWanttoCome.FollowingVladimirPutins
declarationthananyJewswhohadearlierlefttheUSSRandnowfeeluncomfortableinEuropeshouldreturnto
Russia,theleadershipoftheJewishAutonomousDistrictofBirobidzhanannouncedthattheywerereadyto
acceptallofthem.Thereisonlyoneproblem:TherearealmostnoJewstherenow,andonlyoneJewhas
returnedtothisJewishhomelandinrecentyears(sobkorr.ru/news/56A0B0E485840.html).
12.RussianTextbooksSay2Plus2DoesntEqual5,andPeshkovSaysCrimeanQuestionDoesntExist.A
scandalhasbrokenoutoverthefactthatmathematicstextbooksbeingusedinRussiacontainfundamentalerrors
ofaddition,subtraction,multiplicationanddivision(polit.ru/article/2016/01/20/schoolbook/).Insuchacountry,itis
thusperhapsnosurprisethatitspresidentspresssecretarycandeclarewithastraightfacethattheCrimean
questiondoesntexist(regnum.ru/news/polit/2060240.html).
13.DumahasaPlantoMakeIslamicTerrorismGoAway:StopCallingItIslamic.Dumamembershavenot
figuredouthowtofightIslamicterrorismeffectively,buttheyhavecomeupwithoneproposalthatwillmakeit
disappear.SomedeputiesaresuggestingthatMoscowshouldbancallingIslamicterrorismIslamic
(newizv.ru/politics/2016-01-21/233296-tajnaja-vera.html).

Andinaddition,herearefiveotherstoriesincountriesneighboringRussiathatalsomayhavebeenmissed:
1.TajikistanSaysNoOneUnder40WillBeAllowedtoMaketheHaj.Dushanbehasbeenstrugglingwith
Islamistradicalismforsometime.NowitplanstoblockanyTajikyoungerthan40frommakingthepilgrimageto
Mecca(islamsng.com/tjk/news/10243),amovethatislikelytohelpISISwithitsrecruitingeffortsinthatCentral
Asiancountry.
2.TurkmenistanBansCigarettes.Ashgabathasannouncedthatitwillbanthesaleofcigarettesthereinthe
nameofeconomyandpublichealth(bbc.com/russian/news/2016/01/160115_turkmenistan_cigarettes_ban).
3.AstanaGot802KazakhIslamiststoAcceptTraditionalIslam.Kazakhstanofficialshaveannouncedthatthey
havesucceededinconverting802followersofradicalIslamistgroupstoaccepttraditionalIslam.Whatthisinfact
meansisfarfromclear(islamsng.com/kaz/news/10273).
4.TenPercentofUkrainiansMovedAbroadintheLastTwoYears,RussianOutletSays.ARussianportalsays
thatmorethanfourmillionUkrainianshavemovedabroadtoescapeviolenceorfindwork(versia.ru/za-poltora-
goda-iz-ukrainy-sbezhalo-10-procentov-naseleniya).
5.EstoniasRussiansNameRussophobesoftheYear.AgroupofethnicRussiansinEstoniahavenameda
varietyofpeopleRussophobesoftheYear.Apparently,inthegroupsview,therearealotofcompetitorsforthis
title(regnum.ru/news/society/2059144.html)
From:PPP
Subject:[FP]RUMoneyMattersMoretoUKThanLitvinenko?See:RussiaInYourFace[ED:
HILARIOUS]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
http://russiainyourface.com/2016/01/21/foreign-office-urges-moscow-to-carry-out-uk-assassinations-less-
conspicuously/
RussiaInYourFace!!!
TheextremealternativetothelyingWestern
LAMEstreammedia!!!
1DAYAGO
ForeignOfficeurgesMoscowtocarryoutUKassassinationslessconspicuously
LONDON-BritishForeignOfficediplomatsareurgingRussianPresidentVladimirPutintotry
toshowabitmoretactwhenexecutingenemiesoftheRussianstateonBritishsoil.Theplea
comesthedayaninquiryintothemurderofdyed-in-the-wooltraitorAlexanderLitvinenko
foundthatthetraitorousscumwasmurderedbyanothertraitorwhohaslongsincekilled
himself.
SeniordiplomatshavearguedthatthewiderinterestsofAnglo-Russianrelations,whichtotally
donotincludethebillionsofdollarslaunderedthroughLondonshousingmarkettothebenefit
ofaselectfew,requireadegreeofrestraint.
Tobequitefrank,noonereallygivesas***eifMoscowoffstheoddwankeronthestreetsof
Londoneverynowandthen,asourceintheForeignOfficetoldRIYF.
Butforfookssake,doyougottaleavearadioactivetraceoverhalfthefookincontinent?
Polonium-210inafookinteapot,hecontinued,youmadehalfofLondonlooklikeahotel
bedunderablacklightonNightlineyoubloodyamateurs.
ThereisalsoaviewinpartsoftheForeignOfficethatLitvinenkocannotbebroughtbackto
lifemostoftheRussiandiplomatsoragentssupposedlyimplicatedinthecasehavelong
sincelefttheUKanyways,andtheinquirywasneverintendedtoprovewhetheranyonewas
responsibleinthefirstplace.
Hesalreadydead,sonousecryingoverspiltmilkasmygrannyusedtosay,Home
SecretaryTheresaMaysaid.
LabourLeaderJeremyCorbynwasfarlesswillingtomincewords:TheWestshouldstop
persecutingRussia!EveniftheydidassassinatesomeoneonthestreetsofLondon,itwas
aninternalaffairandtheleastwecoulddoisbesensitivetoanotherculture.
On1November2006,confirmedtraitortothemotherlandLitvinenkosuddenlyfellillandwas
hospitalizedaftersuckingdownthedregsofateapotinahigh-endLondonhotel.Hedied
threeweekslater,becomingthefirstconfirmedvictimoflethalpolonium-210-inducedacute
radiationsyndrome.
Atthetimeofhisdeath,LitvinenkowasworkingforMI6,theso-calledBritishspyagency(ha!
ed.),asapart-timeconsultantandfull-timetraitor.Therareradioactiveisotopethat
poisonedhimismadeonlyatclosednuclearfacilitiescontrolledbytheCIAinaproperty
ownedbylong-sincedeceasedRussianoligarchBorisBerezovskyinNazi-occupiedKiev.
AnindependentinvestigationconductedbyRussiasInvestigativeCommitteehasconcluded
thatBerezovskyhadtheswornenemyoftheRussianstateLitvinenkokilledtodiscreditPutin.
BerezovskysubsequentlyoffedhimselfinMarch2013,likelyoutofshameforbetrayingPutin
andcountry.Apost-mortemexaminationcarriedoutbyHomeOfficepathologistsfoundthe
causeofdeathwasconsistentwiththerealitythats***happens.
Senttime: 01/22/201611:53:00AM
FW:[JDDD1-22]"Mr.PutinandthePOISONOUSLondontea/party/&8MORESTORIES....WDVLAD-O-RAMAPLUSUA:1in4Russians
Subject:
AfraidtoTellTruthtoPollstersKlitschkoinDavos:RUHybridWarThreattoAllNoPlaceforJoyinMoscowPP:UAForced...
Subject:Fwd:[JDDD1-22]"Mr.PutinandthePOISONOUSLondontea/party/&8MORESTORIES....WDVLAD-O-RAMAPLUSUA:1in
4RussiansAfraidtoTellTruthtoPollstersKlitschkoinDavos:RUHybridWarThreattoAllNoPlaceforJoyinMoscowPP:UAForced
...
Subject:[JDDD1-22]"Mr.PutinandthePOISONOUSLondontea/party/&8MORESTORIES....WDVLAD-O-RAMA
PLUSUA:1in4RussiansAfraidtoTellTruthtoPollstersKlitschkoinDavos:RUHybridWarThreattoAllNoPlaceforJoyin
MoscowPP:UAForcedbyRUtoSpent5%ofGDPonDefenseRU'sEndgameinUAPaulG'sBaker'sDozenofRUStories
......[FINALLY....HILARIOUS:RIYF]ForeignOfficeurgesMoscowtocarryoutUKassassinationslessconspicuously
Subject:TheEditorialBoardoftheNewYorkTimes:"Mr.PutinandthePOISONOUSLondontea/party/,"nytimes.com,1/22
TheOpinionpages
TheEditorialBoardoftheNewYorkTimes:"Mr.PutinandthePOISONOUSLondontea/party/,"
nytimes.com,1/22TheOpinionpages
reinforcessuspicionsthathecouldeasilyhavebeeninvolvedinthe[Litvinenko]murder.Attheveryleast,
theLondoninquiry,howevermuchitisdeniedattheKremlin,shouldserveasaCAUTIONtothe
And:KERRY[atDavos]sayseffortandgoodfaith[!]couldleadtoliftingofSANCTIONSonRussia
[inthecomingmonths],reuters.com,1/22
And:RussianSANCTIONScouldbegoneinafewmonths,JohnKerry
says,http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/22/news/russia-ukraine-sanctions-john-kerry-davos/
DetaileddiscussionoftheNuland-Surkovbrainstormingsessionanditsimplications.
And:Ukrainianarmyreports69[!]strikesonitspositionsinDonbas[overthepast
day],http://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/690565240556253185
And:FinancialTimes:VladimirPutinproposedtoAssadthathegointo
retirement,http://www.newsru.com/world/22jan2016/offer_print.htmlPeskovhasdeniedtheFinancial
Timesreport.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/01/donald-trump-foreign-policy-213546?o=2
withPutin.
And:KarinaORLOVA,ReplytoTonyaSamsonova,http://echo.msk.ru/blog/karina_orlova/1698520-
echo/
SamsonovahaddefendedtheregimesassassinationofLitvinenko.TheUSandotherstatesdoitwhy
cantRussia?Orlova:Theresponsehereissimple.WhenBarakObamaordersBinLadenkilledhe
doesittotheheadofAlQaedawhichcarriedouttheterroristactof9/11Butwhatterroristactdid
Litvinenkocommit?...WhatlawwasadoptedpermittingLitvinenkotobekilledwithinalegal
framework?
And:AleksandrSOLDATOV,Should[RussianOrthodox]BANKSexist?Andwhatdoesitsignifyif
thesebankshaveproblems?http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/71529.html?print=1
Subject:OneRussianinFourAfraidtoTellPollsterstheTruth-andOneinTwoSayMostRussiansDon't
OneRussianinFourAfraidtoTellPollsterstheTruthandOneinTwoSay
MostRussiansDont
PaulGoble
Staunton,January22RoughlyaquarterofallRussians--26percent--areafraidtoexpresstheirpersonalopinionsto
sociologistsaboutcurrentRussianeventsandslightlyunderhalf--49percent--saythatmostRussiansareunwillingtodoso
becausetheyfearnegativeconsequencesforthemselves,accordingtoanewLevadaCentersurvey.
WhilesuchfindingsmightappearfallunderthelogicalcategoryofallCretansareliars,saidoneCretantoanother,
theywilladdfueltothedebateastohowconfidentanyonecanbeaboutpollresultsfromRussia,withsomedismissingthefindings
asinherentlyflawedandothersarguingthattheyprovideatleastsomeguidance.
AccordingtoanarticleintodaysKommersant,theLevadaCenterpollstersfallinthelattercategory,tellingthe
Moscownewspapersjournaliststhatsuchreluctancetotellthetruthtopolltakersprobablydoesntaffecttheresultsasfaras
Putinsstandingisconcernedbymorethanfivepercentonewayortheother(kommersant.ru/doc/2897562).
Justoverhalf--56percentofthosewhosaidRussiansareunwillingtotellthetruthsaidthatwasthecasebecause
peoplefearnegativeconsequencesforthemselves.Another20percentsuggestedthattheydidsobecausethetruthwas
unwelcomeorunpleasantforthem,andninepercentsuggestedthatrespondentsfeardisapprovalbythepollster.
AlekseyGrazhdankin,thedeputydirectoroftheLevadaCenter,saysPutinissupportedbythesilentmajoritywhich
takepartindiscussionsonsocialnetworksoramongcolleagueslessactivelythandoopponentsoftheauthorities.Atthesame
time,hecontinues,peoplewithoppositionviewsreallymoreoftenthanothersareafraidtosaywhattheythink.
Commentingonthesefindings,MoscowpoliticalanalystKonstantinKalachyevsaysthattheproblemofsocially
approvedanswersisnothingnew.Ithasbeenaroundforsometimeandiscalledthespiralofsilence.Peoplefollowthemajority
andfearsettingthemselvesapartandansweringwithready-madepositivemantras.
Hesuggeststhatsociologistscangetmorereliableresultsfromfocusgroupsorin-depthinterviews.Andhesuggests
thatanotherproblem,perhapsevenlarger,isthattheanswerspeoplegivereflectthewayinwhichthequestionsofthepolltakers
areformed.
Kalachyevgivesthefollowingexamples:OneandthesameindividualmayrespondtothequestionHowhasPutin
dealtwiththeproblemoftherublesfall?withthewordpoorlyandsayyestothequestionDoyouapprovehisactivityas
president?OrhewillanswerpositivelyatoneandthesametimetoquestionslikeAreyouforfriendshipofthepeoples?and
DoyouagreethatRussiashouldbefortheRussians?
Subject:KlitschkoinDavos:wholecivilizedworldisfacing[RU]hybridthreats[nowplaguingUA]
From:foreign-journalistspressudar@googlegroups.com[mailto:foreign-journalistspressudar@googlegroups.com]OnBehalfOf????-
???????????????????????????????????????
Sent:January22,201612:37PM
To:foreignjournalists.pressUDAR
Subject:KlitschkoinDavos:wholecivilizedworldisfacinghybridthreats
KlitschkoinDavos:wholecivilizedworldisfacinghybridthreats
Todayonecannothelpnoticinghybridthreatsandpretendthateverythingisfine,astheyarealreadyattheverybordersofEurope,
themayorofKyivVitaliKlitschkosaidatthediscussionConfrontinghybridthreatsattheWorldeconomicforuminDavos.
Atthisstage,mycountryfeelsmostacutelythesehybridthreats.YouallknowabouttheconflictintheDonbasandtheannexationof
Crimea.Thereasonforthoseisthefactthatforalongtimetheworldwasreluctanttonoticegrowingtrendsofhybridthreats.Nowone
cannothelpnoticingthem,asthesethreatsarealreadyattheverybordersofEurope,Kyivmayorsaid.
KlitschkoissurethattheglobalsecuritysystemwhichwasformedafterWorldWarIIdoesnothavetimetorespondtothreats
immediatelyandadequately.Thatiswhywearefacingtheneedtoreformandcreateanewsystemofglobalsecurity,asaggressive
separatismandterrorismbegintodestroyglobalpeaceandtranquilitymoreandmoreoften.Andnoonecanpretendthateverythingis
fineanymore,becausethewholecivilizedworldisfacinghybridthreats,politicianstressed.
AndthatiswhyweshouldreformtheUnitedNationssoasnottoallowitturnitintotheLeagueofNations,andmakeitfunctionto
effectivelyensureglobalsecurity.Itisalsoveryimportanttostartatrulyglobalfightagainstterrorism.Andforthat,too,thereisaneed
todevelopaneffectivemechanism,preferablywithintheframeworkoftheUNO.Oncewesucceedinthis,anewimpetusto
developmentoftheglobaleconomywillappear,VitaliKlitschkoemphasized.
http://kiev.klichko.org/news/?id=1600&lang=eng
--
,"foreignjournalists.pressUDAR".
,
foreign-journalistspressudar+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com.
,http://groups.google.com/d/optout.

Subject:THERE'SNOPLACEFORJOYINTODAY'SMOSCOW
THERESNOPLACEFORJOYINTODAYS
MOSCOW
SERGEILEBEDEVMOURNSACITYSEALEDINSILENCE
January20,2016BySergeiLebedev
http://lithub.com/theres-no-place-for-joy-in-todays-moscow/
Moscowisemptyingout.Friends,oldflames,areleaving.Theresastrangelightinfamiliar
windows.Eventhecityitself,asaspaceofthememory,belongsnowtoapastepoch,estranged
frommanyofuswhoremain.
WalkingthestreetsoftheRussiancapitaltoday,thoseofuswhowereborninthe1970sand
80srealizewewereborninacountrythatnolongerexists.Wecameofageofthe90s,whenthe
Russiathatexistedthencametousfreely,withoutconditions,likeagiftfromhistory.Wewere
spoiledbyfatewefeltitwasenoughtoexpressourselvesininformalsignsofcommunitywe
wavedwhiteribbonsin2011toprotestflawedelections,butdiscoveredthatribbonswereno
matchforredtapethanininstitutionalformsofsolidarityanddemocracy:westartedfew
politicalparties,joinedpowerinfewprofessionalunionsorpublicorganizations.Andsoitturned
outitwasenoughfortheatmospheretochange,andallofasuddenourgenerationcouldonly
watchhistoryclosedinonus.
Today,itcanbesaidthathistoryisnolongerthepast,butiswalkingeachstepwithus.We
increasinglyperceiveuncomfortableparallelswiththe1920sand30s.Thatwedebatewhichage
wereclosertotheterrorofLeninortheterrorofStalinspeaksvolumesaboutourpresent
situation.
ThereareimagesoflifeinMoscowtodaywhichrecallimagesfromanearliertime:Thehouseis
sealedinsilencenow/Onlythetickingoftheclock./Butthehandwonttouchtheswitch/The
lightdisturbstheanguish.Theselineswerewrittenbymygreataunt,TatyanaLebedeva,afew
yearsbeforeshediedofstarvationduringtheSiegeofLeningrad.Herbodywouldbeburiedina
massgraveinoneofthecitycemeteries.Herapartmentwouldberansacked,herbelongingswould
disappear,andtherewouldremainonlyaslimnotebookfilledwithpoetry,safeguardedbyafriend.
ThehouseissealedinsilencenowThepoemwasdedicatedtoapartingwithabeloved,but
timeimpingesuponlanguage,prescribesverbs:sealed.Becauseinthesamemonthsasthepoem
waswritten,theSovietNKVDsecretpolicehadsealedtheapartmentsofthearrestedexiting
ontothestairwell,peoplesawwaxstampsontheirneighborsdoors,doorsofapartmentsfrom
whenceresidentshadbeenledaway.
ThehouseissealedinsilencenowAttheendofthe90s,havingfalleninlovemyself,Iread
theselines,andthemetaphorseemedstriking.Today,15yearslater,itnolongerseemsso.Itis:its
myhousethatsbeensealedinsilence.
Thefirstthingthatlosesitsvoiceisjoy.Youareswimminginthecurrentofnews.Atfirstit
horrifiesyou:whetheritswordofyetanotherraidontheofficesofahumanrightsorganizationor
alawlessarrest,youfeelanger,alarm,indignation,fear.Thenthefeelingssubside.Yougetusedto
them.ButnonethelesstheresjustnoplaceforjoyintodaysMoscow.Atleastnotforsober-
thinkingpeople,despitethefabulous(thoughshrinking)wealththathasbeenamassedbyaprecious
fewlifetransformsintoexhaustingslogsalongdarkKafkaesquecorridors.
Thenyourfriendsdisappear.In1998,havingfinishedhighschool,Ithoughtseriouslyaboutjoining
thearmy.Myolderfriend,havingservedinthespecialforces,gavemeacopyofSvetlana
AlexievichsZinkyBoys:SovietVoicesfromtheAfghanistanWar.Hehandedittomeandsaid,
Readthisbeforeyoudecide.Ireadit.AndIforeverpartedwayswithromanticnotionsofwar.
WhenAlexievichreceivedtheNobelPrizeinLiteraturethispastOctober,thesamemanwhod
onceperformedafeatthathadinawaysetthecourseofmylifethatsamemansaidthat
Alexievichsbooksarealllies,thatsheslandersRussia(presumably,intheserviceoftheWest).
Manypeopleclingtothisinvertedpictureoftheworld,ifonlysoasnottofeelastrident
lonelinessinthemidstofgeneralunity.
Othersarereadytoplungeintotheecstasyofpower,theardorofloyaltyanythingsolongasthey
dontfeeltheoncominggloom.Andmany,ofcourse,arereadytoacceptonceagainthepropaganda
ofRussiaarisingfromitsknees,Sherises!forthatwayatleasttherecanbeanersatzfuture.
Thesearchforhistoricalanaloguesinvariablyleadsto1937,theyearoftheGreatTerror,whenthe
mechanismofrepressionwasbuiltontheapplicationofdirectforcearrests,exile,executions
entirestrataofthepopulationwerecrossedout,subtractedfromexistence.
Buttodaythepracticeoflarge-scaledirectviolenceisnolongercalledfor.Withmuchsuccess,the
softviolenceofthemediahastakenitsplaceasophisticatedbrainwashinghasadvancedtoa
degreethatStalinsgovernmentcouldneverhavedreamedof.Afterall,by1937theliteracyratein
Russiawas75percentnoweverybodycanwatch(state-controlled)TV.
ThosearrestedduringtheMoscowprotestsagainstPutinsgovernmentinthespringof2012
generallyreceivedjustafewyearsofprisontime.TheUkrainianfilmmakerOlegSentsov,arrested
twoyearslaterinCrimea,gotputbehindbarsfor20years.Thedifferenceinseveritycantbe
explainedbythelegalcode.Thiswasasignal,asignofthenewtimes,anewyardstickofriskand
fear.
AndwhatsmostimportantisthattodaysRussiaalreadyhasbehindher,inthechainof
generations,agianttraumathatgetspassedonanew.Thephysicalterrorofthe1930sisnolonger
necessaryinMoscow.Itsenoughforthepasttokeepremindingusofitselfinordertoactualize
thisatavisticfearitisrepressionsimplybymeansofthepainfulmemoryofrepression.Thusfora
personwhowastorturedlongago,itsenoughfromtimetotimetohearthevoiceofhistorturer,to
hearthatintonationforgottenlongago,inordertoagainlosethestrengthandthewillforprotest.
PerhapsthatsonereasonwhyPutinhassetaboutrevivingStalinsreputationinhistorytextbooks
usedbychildrenallaroundRussia.
Moscowhasnowbecomethathousesealedinsilence.Andweareincreasinglyafraidtotouchthe
switchandilluminatethedarkcornersofthiscity.
Subject:PoroshenkosaysunpredictableRussiamakesUkrainespend5%ofGDPondefense
PoroshenkosaysunpredictableRussiamakesUkrainespend5%ofGDPondefense
21.01.2016|23:424
http://www.unian.info/politics/1243255-poroshenko-says-unpredictable-russia-makes-ukraine-spend-5-of-gdp-on-defense.html?
UkrainianPresidentPetroPoroshenkosaysthattheunpredictabilityofRussiamakesUkrainespend5%ofitsGDPondefense
andsecurity,accordingtoBloombergTV.
PoroshenkosaysthatareductioninmilitaryexpenditureisbetterforRussiaanditsneighbours/PhotofromUNIAN"Frommy
pointofview,Russiashouldbeapredictablecountry.UntilnownobodycanpredicthowthesituationwillbedevelopinginSyria,
nobodycanpredicthowthesituationwillbedevelopinginUkrainethat'swhyweshouldspend5%ofourGDPonoursecurity
anddefenseprogramjusttobuildouteffectivearmedforces,justtostopRussianaggressionandnottomakeharmlessRussia's
unpredictability,"hetoldBloombergTVonthesidelinesoftheWorldEconomicForuminDavos,Switzerland.Poroshenkoalso
saidthathedoubtsthattherewasadirectlinkbetweenthepresentoilfallingandRussia'scapacitytoengageinescalationin
Donbasfurther."ThelessmoneyRussiacouldspendonmilitaryexpenditure,thebetteritisbetterforRussia,betterforthe
neighbors,andbetterforthewholeglobalsecurity,"hesaid.
Subject:RussiaPushingforAnEndgameinUkraine
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,Walter
MOSCOWTIMES:RussiaPushingforAnEndgameinUkraine
MatthewBodnerJan.21201611:15Lastedited11:15
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/news/article/russia-pushing-for-an-endgamein-ukraine/556437.html
MaximShemetov/ReutersTheappearanceofoneofPresidentVladimirPutin'smostenigmaticassociates,VladislavSurkov,ata
meetingwithU.S.AssistantSecretaryofStateVictoriaNulandlastFridayhassparkedspeculationthatMoscowandWashington
areapproachinganendgameinUkraineaftertwoyearsofconflict."ThatiswasSurkov,andnot[DeputyForeignMinister
Grigory]KarasinNuland'scounterpartisverysignificant,"saidforeignaffairsexpertVladimirFrolov."Surkovisakey
decision-makerontheDonbasswiththeauthoritytomaketacticaladjustmentstotheRussianposition."
ThoughhehasallegedlybeenamajorplayerinthecraftingandmanagingofRussia'sUkrainepolicyoverthepasttwoyears,
Surkovtendstooperatebehindthescenes.Hehasofficiallynottakenpartinanyprevioushigh-levelnegotiationswiththeUnited
States,untilnow.AnalystssaidSurkov'sinvolvementindicatesRussiaistryingnowtobringaresolutiontotheongoingconflictin
UkraineasameansofseekingrelieffromWesternsanctionswhichhavecombinedwithacollapseinglobaloilpricestodeal
realdamagetotheRussianeconomy.
UndertheRadar
BoththeU.S.StateDepartmentandtheRussianForeignMinistryhavebeenrelativelysilentwithregardstothesubstanceof
Nuland'smeetingwithSurkovaseniorRussiangovernmentfigureandclosePutinassociatewhowasamongthefirstplacedon
theU.S.sanctionslistin2014.Surkovtoldreportersthatthemeetingwasessentiallya"brainstorming"sessiononpossible
compromisesthatwouldallowtheMinskIIagreements,signedinFebruary2015,tofinallybeimplementedandthecrisisdrawn
toaclose.StateDepartmentspokesmanJohnKirbysaidafterthemeetingonFridaythat"[Surkov]istheappropriatepersonin
[theRussian]government[withwhom]tohavethisdiscussionaboutMinskimplementation."
Kirbysaidonlythatthetwodiscussed"thesituationineasternUkraineandtheneedforafullimplementationoftheMinsk
agreements,"hesaid,addingthatthetalkswereconstructiveanddesignedtosupportongoinginternationalnegotiationstobringthe
crisistoaclose.EndgameontheHorizon?ThenatureofSurkovandNuland'smeeting,aswellasthelackofofficialchatteror
evenleakstothemediaaboutthesubstanceofthediscussions,indicatesthatrealnegotiationsaretakingplace,accordingto
Dr.MarkGaleotti,aRussianforeignandsecurityaffairsexpert."NulandisnotonetosparetheRussiansblushes,soiftheyfelt
theygotnowhere,eithershewouldhavesaidsoorbynowthatwouldhavebeenleakedandcommonsensewouldsuggestthat
Russiaoughttobelookingforsomekindofexitstrategy,"Galeottisaid.
TheDonbassproject,comprisedoftheaspirationalLuhanskandDonetskPeople'sRepublics,hasbeenanexpensivefailure.The
UkrainiangovernmentinKievremainsinpower,andRussianinvolvementintheconflicthasnotresultedinanydecisiveoutcome
fortherebels.
Source:UkraineNationalSecurity&DefenseCouncil
Cease-firelinesinEasternUkraineasenvisionedbyMinskagreements
AndthereareothersignalsthatRussiaisnowgettingseriousaboutadeal,suchastheappointmentofBorisGryzlovasenior
memberoftheRussiannationalsecuritycouncilasMoscow'srepresentativetotheinternationalcontactgroupsupervising
Minskimplementation.
"[Gryzlov]maynotbeadecisionmaker,buthe'satrustedexecutor,andhe'ssomeonewithacertainamountofpoliticalclout
whichiswhatyou'dneedtosealthedeal,"saidGaleotti.AlthoughtheKremlinappearstobepositioningitselfforadealwiththe
West,obstaclestotheimplementationoftheMinskIIagreementremain.AmongthelistofpotentialspoilersaretheRussian
people,whohavespentthelasttwoyearswatchingamediawaragainstneo-fascisminKiev.
AnalystssaidthattheKremlin'sstatemediamachinewouldmostlikelykeepUkraineoutoftheheadlinesafterpresentinga
"missionaccomplished"scenariointheDonbassthefascistsweredefeated,theregionisreadytointegratewithKiev.ButKiev
itselfmayyetundermineadeal.
AspartoftheMinskIIagreements,Ukraineagreedtoamendtheirconstitutiontoprovidefortheself-governanceofthepro-
RussianLuhanskandDonetskregions.Inexchange,UkrainewouldbegivenfullcontrolofitsborderwithRussia.TheUkrainian
legislatureisexpectedtovoteontheseamendmentsinthenextseveralweeks,butRussiahasalreadysoundedthealarmthatKiev
isnotfullylivinguptoitsendofthebargainthelawaswrittenisonlypartofatransitionalconstitution,Putinsaid.
AccordingtoAlexeiChesnakov,aRussianpoliticalanalystandformerKremlinstaffer,oneofthetopicsoftheSurkov-Nuland
meetingwashowtofixaUkrainianelectionlawandlawonself-governancefortheDonbass.Ascurrentlywritten,"theself-
proclaimedrepublicsandRussiawillnotrecognizetheamendment,"hesaid.ButFrolovarguedthatMoscowislikelyusingthe
meetingstolobbytheWesttopressureKievintosettlingtheconflictonMoscow'stermsacceptingthattheregionswillremain
permanentlyautonomousinafederalizedUkraine."Ifthatprovedimpossible,thenthesecondoptionistogettheWestto
acknowledgethatthewholehouseofcardscollapsedthroughnofaultofRussia's,butbecauseUkrainewasunreasonable,"he
said.Ukraine,accordingtothislogic,wouldberesponsibleforMinsk'sfailure.Russia,therefore,wouldbeoffthehook,and
sanctionscouldbelifted."Mysenseisthatthelatterismorelikelythantheformer,"leavingtheDonbassconflictinadeepfreeze,
Frolovconcluded.
ButtherearealreadysignsthatMoscowisabandoningtheDonbassrebelsinordertobringanendtotheconflictandWestern
sanctions.Apro-rebelactivist,VladimirGarnachuk,wroteonhisFacebookpageTuesdayeveningthattheDonbassprojecthas
lostmomentum.
"Alreadynooneisinterestedinwhatpeopletherefoughtanddiedfor.Welostthiswar.Andthebitterheartburnofthislosswillbe
releasedinthenearfuture,"Garnachukconcluded.
Subject:ABaker'sDozenofNeglectedRussianStories-No.20
ABakersDozenofNeglectedRussianStoriesNo.20
PaulGoble
Staunton,January22--Thefloodofnewsstoriesfromacountryaslarge,diverseandstrangeastheRussian
Federationoftenappearstobeisfartoolargeforanyonetokeepupwith.Butthereneedstobeawaytomark
thosewhichcantbediscussedindetailbutwhicharetooindicativeofbroaderdevelopmentstoignore
Consequently,WindowsonEurasiawillpresentaselectionof13oftheseotherandtypicallyneglectedstories
attheendofeachweek.Thisisthetwentiethsuchcompilation.Itisonlysuggestiveandfarfromcomplete
indeed,thisweekonceagain,onecouldhaveputoutsuchalistingeveryday--butperhapsoneormoreofthese
storieswillproveofbroaderinterest.
1.BetteraFifthColumnthanaFourthReich!EventhoughtheMoscowauthoritieshaverefusedtogive
permissionforamarchintheRussiancapitalagainstRamzanKadyrov,activistsareturningtotheInternetto
spreadtheirfearsandtooffersloganslikethisoneforotherstoconsider(facebook.com/photo.php?
fbid=10153142416462434&set=a.10151105726772434.416368.644037433&type=3&theater).
2.OnlyaNewOPEC-StyleCartelCouldRestoreOilPricesandSaveRussia,MoscowAnalystSays.
AccordingtoaMoscowanalyst,RussianeedstoexplorethepossibilitiesofcreatinganewOPEC-stylecartelas
ameansofboostingthepriceofoilandthusgettingRussiaoutofitscurrenteconomicdifficulties
(ng.ru/economics/2016-01-20/4_oil.html).
3.TalkaboutPuttingOffDumaElectionsSpreads.URA.rureportsthatsomeDumamembersarenowtalking
aboutdelayingRussiasparliamentaryelectionsbecauseofthecrisis.Campaignswouldonlygetinthewayof
addressingRussiasrealproblemsandpopulistproposalscouldmakethesituationworse,theysuggest
(ura.ru/articles/1036266839).
4.WithPutinsRussia,AnEntryVisaisntNearlyEnough.Asnewcourtcasesshow,manyforeignersinRussia
entirelylegallyarefindingitdifficulttoleavethecountry,anindicationProfilesuggeststhatexitvisasevenforthem
arebeingintroducedonadefactobasis(profile.ru/obsch/item/103288-zalozhniki-v-gostyakh).
5.RussianProstitutesNowBarteringTheirServicesAndOtherSignsofRussiasDistress.Theeconomic
crisishashitmanyRussiangroups,includingprostitutes,whohaveseendemandfall,havebeenforcedtolower
theirprices,andnowareevenwillingtoacceptbarterarrangements(mk.ru/social/2016/01/22/rossiyskie-
prostitutki-izza-krizisa-pereshli-na-barter.htmlandura.ru/articles/1036266823).Othersignsofhowbadthingsare
becomingincludeanannouncementbythegovernmentnewsagencyTASSthatitwontbeabletopayhonoraria
onatimelybasis(meduza.io/news/2016/01/20/v-tasse-nachali-zaderzhivat-zarplatu)andtherequirementthat
passengersnowpayforWIFIatMoscowsSheremetyevoairport(kasparov.ru/material.php?id=5699415841000).
Butinareminderthatthereisnobadwithoutsomegood,thecollapseoftherublehaspushedupheroinpriceson
thestreetsofRussiancitiesandlikelyreducedconsumptionofthatillegaldrug(interfax.ru/business/489553).
6.MorethanOneMillionRussiansNowInfectedwithHIVVirus.InasignoftheRussiangovernments
misplacedpriorities,includingspendingahigherpercentageofitsGDPonarmsthananyothercountryand
cuttingmedicalprograms,morethanamillionRussiansarenowinfectedwithHIVandmanyarenotbeingtreated
(echo.msk.ru/blog/karina_orlova/1697842-echo/).Otherexamplesofthismistakensetofchoicesincludethe
governmentsshutteringofaprogramthathadbeenhelpingMoscowshomeless
(novayagazeta.ru/society/71463.html)andtheclosureof340publiclibrariesinthepast12months
(philologist.livejournal.com/8127745.html).
7.OnlyFiveItelmenSpeakersLeft.OnlyfivenativespeakersofItelmensurvive,andyoungpeoplewhowantto
learnthelanguagehavehadtoturntorecordingsandtheInternet,astatisticthatmakesamockeryofValery
TishkovsupbeatstatementsaboutRussiassupportofminoritylanguagesandpeoples
(unmultimedia.org/radio/russian/archives/209197/#.VqH1hlJ0e-
dandwindowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/01/crimea-annexation-restored-ethnic.html).Meanwhile,inTuva,
officialssaythatmembersofthatnationalityneedfivelanguagestobesuccessful(tuva.asia/news/tuva/8430-
bavuu-syuryun.html).
8.KadyrovWantsForcedPsychiatricTreatmentofOppositionFigures.RamzanKadyrovhasproposed
incarceratingmembersoftheRussianoppositioninpsychiatrichospitalsmuchastheSovietsdidalthoughhehas
notyetre-introducedthetermsluggishschizophreniatodescribetheirmedicalcondition
(grani.ru/War/Chechnya/m.247813.html).Russianofficialsarentfarbehindhim:theywanttoexpandthedefinition
offoreignagentstoincludeanyonewhocriticizesthePutinregimeevenifheorshedoesntgetmoneyfrom
abroad(rbc.ru/politics/22/01/2016/56a1cb429a794748d2757a39andtheins.ru/news/18785).AndtheFSBin
occupiedCrimeaisnowinsistingthatthepostalservicereportonlettersanyoneonalistofopponentsreceivesas
awayofcontrollingtheopposition(grani.ru/Politics/World/Europe/Ukraine/m.247942.html).
9.AcademyofSciencesPresidentTellsPutinthatRussianSciencehasFallentotheLevelofIrans.Vladimir
PutinsdenunciationofLeninforlayingadelayedactionminethatledtothedestructionoftheUSSRattractedfar
moreattention,butatthesamemeeting,theheadoftheRussianAcademyofSciencespointedoutthatRussian
sciencehascollapsedoverthelasttwodecadesandnowranksnobetterthanthatofIrans,atrendthatmaybe
farmorefatefulforthefuture(rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/56a0d2929a7947f070f00bc7).
10.AllAnimalsareEqualbutSomeareMoreEqualthanOthers.InyetanotherwaythatthePutinregimeis
becomingevermoreOrwellian,childrenofwell-offparentsarenowbeingfedbetterthanthosefrompoorfamilies
insomeschools(medialeaks.ru/news/1501okh_sa).
11.BirobidzhanReadytoTakeinJewsButTheyDontSeemtoWanttoCome.FollowingVladimirPutins
declarationthananyJewswhohadearlierlefttheUSSRandnowfeeluncomfortableinEuropeshouldreturnto
Russia,theleadershipoftheJewishAutonomousDistrictofBirobidzhanannouncedthattheywerereadyto
acceptallofthem.Thereisonlyoneproblem:TherearealmostnoJewstherenow,andonlyoneJewhas
returnedtothisJewishhomelandinrecentyears(sobkorr.ru/news/56A0B0E485840.html).
12.RussianTextbooksSay2Plus2DoesntEqual5,andPeshkovSaysCrimeanQuestionDoesntExist.A
scandalhasbrokenoutoverthefactthatmathematicstextbooksbeingusedinRussiacontainfundamentalerrors
ofaddition,subtraction,multiplicationanddivision(polit.ru/article/2016/01/20/schoolbook/).Insuchacountry,itis
thusperhapsnosurprisethatitspresidentspresssecretarycandeclarewithastraightfacethattheCrimean
questiondoesntexist(regnum.ru/news/polit/2060240.html).
13.DumahasaPlantoMakeIslamicTerrorismGoAway:StopCallingItIslamic.Dumamembershavenot
figuredouthowtofightIslamicterrorismeffectively,buttheyhavecomeupwithoneproposalthatwillmakeit
disappear.SomedeputiesaresuggestingthatMoscowshouldbancallingIslamicterrorismIslamic
(newizv.ru/politics/2016-01-21/233296-tajnaja-vera.html).

Andinaddition,herearefiveotherstoriesincountriesneighboringRussiathatalsomayhavebeenmissed:
1.TajikistanSaysNoOneUnder40WillBeAllowedtoMaketheHaj.Dushanbehasbeenstrugglingwith
Islamistradicalismforsometime.NowitplanstoblockanyTajikyoungerthan40frommakingthepilgrimageto
Mecca(islamsng.com/tjk/news/10243),amovethatislikelytohelpISISwithitsrecruitingeffortsinthatCentral
Asiancountry.
2.TurkmenistanBansCigarettes.Ashgabathasannouncedthatitwillbanthesaleofcigarettesthereinthe
nameofeconomyandpublichealth(bbc.com/russian/news/2016/01/160115_turkmenistan_cigarettes_ban).
3.AstanaGot802KazakhIslamiststoAcceptTraditionalIslam.Kazakhstanofficialshaveannouncedthatthey
havesucceededinconverting802followersofradicalIslamistgroupstoaccepttraditionalIslam.Whatthisinfact
meansisfarfromclear(islamsng.com/kaz/news/10273).
4.TenPercentofUkrainiansMovedAbroadintheLastTwoYears,RussianOutletSays.ARussianportalsays
thatmorethanfourmillionUkrainianshavemovedabroadtoescapeviolenceorfindwork(versia.ru/za-poltora-
goda-iz-ukrainy-sbezhalo-10-procentov-naseleniya).
5.EstoniasRussiansNameRussophobesoftheYear.AgroupofethnicRussiansinEstoniahavenameda
varietyofpeopleRussophobesoftheYear.Apparently,inthegroupsview,therearealotofcompetitorsforthis
title(regnum.ru/news/society/2059144.html)
From:PPP
Subject:[FP]RUMoneyMattersMoretoUKThanLitvinenko?See:RussiaInYourFace[ED:
HILARIOUS]
http://russiainyourface.com/2016/01/21/foreign-office-urges-moscow-to-carry-out-uk-assassinations-less-
conspicuously/
RussiaInYourFace!!!
TheextremealternativetothelyingWestern
LAMEstreammedia!!!
1DAYAGO
ForeignOfficeurgesMoscowtocarryoutUKassassinationslessconspicuously
LONDON-BritishForeignOfficediplomatsareurgingRussianPresidentVladimirPutintotry
toshowabitmoretactwhenexecutingenemiesoftheRussianstateonBritishsoil.Theplea
comesthedayaninquiryintothemurderofdyed-in-the-wooltraitorAlexanderLitvinenko
foundthatthetraitorousscumwasmurderedbyanothertraitorwhohaslongsincekilled
himself.
SeniordiplomatshavearguedthatthewiderinterestsofAnglo-Russianrelations,whichtotally
donotincludethebillionsofdollarslaunderedthroughLondonshousingmarkettothebenefit
ofaselectfew,requireadegreeofrestraint.
Tobequitefrank,noonereallygivesas***eifMoscowoffstheoddwankeronthestreetsof
Londoneverynowandthen,asourceintheForeignOfficetoldRIYF.
Butforfookssake,doyougottaleavearadioactivetraceoverhalfthefookincontinent?
Polonium-210inafookinteapot,hecontinued,youmadehalfofLondonlooklikeahotel
bedunderablacklightonNightlineyoubloodyamateurs.
ThereisalsoaviewinpartsoftheForeignOfficethatLitvinenkocannotbebroughtbackto
lifemostoftheRussiandiplomatsoragentssupposedlyimplicatedinthecasehavelong
sincelefttheUKanyways,andtheinquirywasneverintendedtoprovewhetheranyonewas
responsibleinthefirstplace.
Hesalreadydead,sonousecryingoverspiltmilkasmygrannyusedtosay,Home
SecretaryTheresaMaysaid.
LabourLeaderJeremyCorbynwasfarlesswillingtomincewords:TheWestshouldstop
persecutingRussia!EveniftheydidassassinatesomeoneonthestreetsofLondon,itwas
aninternalaffairandtheleastwecoulddoisbesensitivetoanotherculture.
On1November2006,confirmedtraitortothemotherlandLitvinenkosuddenlyfellillandwas
hospitalizedaftersuckingdownthedregsofateapotinahigh-endLondonhotel.Hedied
threeweekslater,becomingthefirstconfirmedvictimoflethalpolonium-210-inducedacute
radiationsyndrome.
Atthetimeofhisdeath,LitvinenkowasworkingforMI6,theso-calledBritishspyagency(ha!
ed.),asapart-timeconsultantandfull-timetraitor.Therareradioactiveisotopethat
poisonedhimismadeonlyatclosednuclearfacilitiescontrolledbytheCIAinaproperty
ownedbylong-sincedeceasedRussianoligarchBorisBerezovskyinNazi-occupiedKiev.
AnindependentinvestigationconductedbyRussiasInvestigativeCommitteehasconcluded
thatBerezovskyhadtheswornenemyoftheRussianstateLitvinenkokilledtodiscreditPutin.
BerezovskysubsequentlyoffedhimselfinMarch2013,likelyoutofshameforbetrayingPutin
andcountry.Apost-mortemexaminationcarriedoutbyHomeOfficepathologistsfoundthe
causeofdeathwasconsistentwiththerealitythats***happens.
From: TheJamestownFoundation<pubs@jamestown.org>
Senttime: 01/26/201602:14:43PM
To: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: EurasiaDailyMonitor--Volume13,Issue17
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January26,2016--Volume13,Issue17
INTHISISSUE
*RussianmilitarysairoperationsshedlightondifficultiesinSyria
*KremlinshiftsstrategytolayingfoundationsforfifthcolumninUkraine

**VisittheJamestownBlogonRussiaandEurasia(http://www.jamestown.org/blog)
RussiasAirOperationsinSyriaExposeProblems

MoscowsmilitaryoperationsinUkraineandSyriaexposeafundamentaldistinctionin
approach:tryingtoextractitselffromtheformerwhileshowingnosignofapplyingthat
strategytothelatter.Officially,analliswellmessageispromulgatedbytheRussianpolitical-
militaryleadershipconcerningtheaircampaigninSyria.Perhapscarriedawaybytheeuphoria
ofconductingitsfirstout-of-areaoperationssinceAfghanistan,speculationhasarisenabout
theopeningofanewairbaseinSyria,closetotheTurkishborder,promptingdenialsfrom
officials(NezavisimoyeVoyennoyeObozreniye,January25).Themilitarymediaworks
tirelesslytoadvancetheideathattheaircampaignisworking,withoutreallyaddressing
underlyingissuessuchasstrategicaimsandobjectives,oracknowledgingthelimitedscopeof
thecloseairsupportfordisparategroundforcesgroupings(KrasnayaZvezda,January24).

Somebreachesintheratheroptimisticnarrativehaveappeared,andmaywellpresagethe
exposureofdeepersystemicproblems.ThefirststemsfromwhytheAerospaceForces
(VozdushnoKosmicheskikhSilVKS)anddefenseministry,despitePresidentVladimir
Putinsclaimthattheoperationistemporary,appeartoadoptalessthanhurriedapproach.
Infact,thisoriginatesinthetermsofthebilateralagreementthatlaidthebasisforRussian
operationsinSyria.TheRussiangovernmenttooktheunusualstepofreleasingthecontentof
theagreementreachedandsignedinDamascusonAugust26,2015.Accordingtothe
bilateralagreement,theVKScanusetheLatakiaairbaseindefinitelyandfreeofcharge.
Moscowcansendanyweapons,equipmentandmaterialsthatitdeemsnecessary,whileall
militarypersonnelenjoydiplomaticimmunity.TheagreementreachedinDamascusstipulates
thatRussiascontributiontoacampaignagainstterrorismandextremismisforanindefinite
period.Russiancommentatorsregardthetreatyasfairlystandard,anddownplaythe
indefiniteperiod,assimplyavoidingsettingdeadlinesfortheoperations(Gazeta,January
15).
WhiletheVKSmaybeinnohurrytoenditsoperationsinSyria,itisclearthatthe
interventionmarksashiftinRussianmilitarypolicyaswellasprovidinganewtestingground
foradvancedsystems.Acommentaryin NezavisimoyeVoyennoyeObozreniyenotedthat
theVKSoperationinSyriaisquiteunlikeRussiasuseofmilitaryforcesincetheendofthe
ColdWar.ItalsonotedthatsomeexpertshadlabelleditasthefirstRussianwarinAmerican
style,relyingonairpower,long-rangestrikeswithprecisionweapons,andwithminimalrisk
toitstroopsandforces.ThecommentaryfocusedonhowWesternanalystshaveadopteda
broadlypositiveinterpretationoftheRussianmilitaryoperation,whichaccordingtotheauthor
isrootedinthetendencytooverlycompareitwiththeFiveDayWarwithGeorgiainAugust
2008(NezavisimoyeVoyennoyeObozreniye,January15).
TurningtoconsiderWesterncriticismofRussiasinterventioninSyria,theauthorexplored
analysisbyDouglasBarry,aseniorresearcherattheLondon-basedInternationalInstitutefor
StrategicStudies.BarryacknowledgedtheuseoftheVKShigh-precisionweapons,butwent
ontoaddthatthescaleofaircraftprecisionweapons,reconnaissanceandtargeting
designationpossessedbytheVKSismuchnarrowerthaninWesternmilitaries.Barryalso
arguesthatRussiasuseofUAVshasnotreachedlevelsusedbytheUSanditsalliesin
Afghanistan,astheylackthenecessarylevelofintegrationofairborneandgroundhardware
systems(NezavisimoyeVoyennoyeObozreniye,January15).Consequently,theauthoragrees
withWesterncomparisonstotheGeorgiaWarinthatoperationsinSyriademonstratesome
advances,butconcludesthattheVKSisstillfarbehindtheUnitedStatesAirForce(USAF).
Russiasuseoflong-rangeaviationtofireair-launchedcruisemissileswaspresentedinthe
militarypressasastepforwardandademonstrationofadvancedcapabilities.However,
Major-GeneralAnatoliyKonovalov,theforcesdeputycommander,admittedtherewere
someproblems.DuringaninterviewwithEkhoMoskvyonDecember19,Konovalovwas
askedtosummarizetheperformanceoflong-rangeaviationinSyria.Konovalovsaid:There
areproblemswiththeaircraft.Inparticular,intheuseofair-launchedcruisemissiles.Weare
nowbusyworkingonthem.Ibelieveweshallgetridoftheproblemsthatarosewiththeuse
ofair-launchedcruisemissilesinthenearfuture(EkhoMoskvy,December19).
UndoubtedlyRussiasmilitaryoperationsinSyriaprovideatestinggroundforitsweapons
systemsandhardware.Althoughnottestedassuch,thedeploymentofsophisticatedair
defensesystemsinthetheaterofoperationshasraisedconcerninWashingtonandonthepart
ofNATO.InresponsetothedowningoftheRussianSu-24MbytheTurkishAirForcein
November2015,MoscowreportedlyorderedthedeploymentofS-300Fort,theship-based
versionoftheS-300airdefensesystem,alongwiththemoreadvancedS-400Triumf.NATO
Secretary-GeneralJensStoltenbergreactedtothesenewdeployments,statingthatitfitsa
patternofMoscowdeployingmodernweaponsinconflictzonesclosetotheAlliance.
Stoltenbergsaid,WehaveforalongtimeseenthatRussiaisdeployingadvancedweaponsin
Syria,intheeasternpartoftheMediterraneanandalongtheborderswithNATOcountriesin
Europe.Furthermore,hereferredtoRussianmilitaryactivityintheBalticandBlackseas,as
wellasintheCrimea,Allofthis,partofthesystem,whichindicatesthatRussiaisexpanding
capacitytointroduceano-flyzone.AndthisisoneofthereasonsthatNATOadapts,though
leavingunclearhowtheAllianceisadapting(NezavisimoyeVoyennoyeObozreniye,
December4,2015).
Ofcourse,notalltheproblemstheRussianmilitaryfacesinSyriaaresolelyofamilitary
naturetherearenumerouscontradictionsintheoperation,andunexplainedtwists.Alexander
Khramchikhin,deputyheadoftheMoscow-basedInstituteofPoliticalandMilitaryAnalysis,
referstotheideaofdirectsupportforSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assadandhisopponentsas
atypeofschizophrenia,thoughheacknowledgesthatMoscowseekstosupportthesworn
enemiesofTurkeyaspaybackfortheSu-24M(RBK,January13).

InanarticleexaminingthenewRussianNationalSecurityStrategy,AlexanderKonovalov,
presidentoftheInstituteforStrategicAssessments,suggeststhattheSyriacampaigncannot
reallybeexplainedbythestrategy.HeconcludesthatPutinfacesachoiceofthreeoptions:
(1)Useanyopportunitytoendthecampaignandsaveface(2)Continuewiththesame
intensityandresultsor,(3)Expandsignificantlytheoperationtoincludegroundforces
(Kommersant,January18).
--RogerMcDermott
MoscowShiftingfromDirectAggressiontoBuildingaFifthColumninUkraine
GivenMoscowsdesiretogetoutfromunderthesanctionsregimeandthealmostequal
desireofsomeWesterngovernmentstodeclarevictoryandliftit,theKremlinappearslikely
todojustenoughtoclaimthatithasfulfilledtheMinskAccordsandtheWesttoacceptthat
assufficienttoendtheUkrainiancrisis.Inthatevent,itisanearcertaintytheWestwillagain
focusonMoscowandlookawayfromUkraineeventhoughCrimeawillremainunder
Russianoccupation.Andasaresult,Ukrainewillbeleftlargelyonitsownagainstwhathas
alwaysbeenpartoftheKremlinsstrategyagainstit,andwhatseemscertaintobethecenter
ofthatstrategyinthefuture:theuseofaRussian-organizedfifthcolumntosubvertUkraine
andpreventitfrommakingthekindofreformsthatwillallowittointegrateintoEurope.
SuchastrategywillbeespeciallyusefultoMoscowbecauseitwillseektopromotetheidea
thatUkrainesproblemsareentirelyofUkrainesownmaking,andthattheWestshouldview
Kyivasapoorpartner,becausewhateverVladimirPutinpromises,hewilltakeback
wheneveritsuitshim,countingontheWestsshortmemoryandonitsdesiretohavegood
relationswithRussia.Further,thestrategyislikelytoworkespeciallywellintheshort-term
becauseoftheenormousproblemsKyivwillfaceinre-integratingtheDonbasproblemsthat
MoscowpropagandistsandtheirfriendsintheWestcancountontrumpetingtotheworldand
exploitingtoheightenotherregionaltensionsinUkraine(Segodnya.ua,January25).
WhatisperhapsmostremarkableisnotthatMoscowismakingthisshiftitisfullyconsistent
withRussiandoctrineandtheRussianpracticeofhybridwarbutratherthatitsagentsare
sobrazenastodeclarethatthisisexactlywhattheyintendtodo.Lastweek,Aleksandr
Zakharchenko,theleaderoftheDonetskseparatists,madeastatementthatdeservesthe
closestattention.OneUkrainiancommentator,YuryUvarov,hasdonesoandhisanalysis
pointstowhybothUkrainiansandWesterngovernmentsshouldbeconcerned(Qha.com.ua,
January20).
Typically,Uvarovsays,Zakharchenkosremarksaresooverthetopthattheycansafelybe
ignoredbutthistimearound,hiswordsappeartohavebeencraftedforhiminMoscowand
pointtoamajorchange.ThisisevidentasZakharchenkosaysthatwhateverhappensinthe
Donbas,protestmovementscouldbesalvationforUkraine.Hegoesontostate:The
presentauthoritiesofUkraineobviouslyareleadingthecountryintotheabyss.Alossof
sovereignty,defactoforeignrule,economicdegradation,andagrowthinpovertyand
unemploymentareallleadingUkrainetowardeconomiccollapseandpoliticalcatastrophe.
Andinthefinalanalysis,todisintegration.
ZakharchenkoaddsthatheandhisregimewillwelcometheappearanceinUkraineofsuch
movementsbutwillnottaketheleadinpromotingthem.Inaddition,hestates,Wevery
muchhopethattheUkrainianpeoplewillwakeupfromtheirapathyandwillbeabletobegin
throughproteststheprocessofchangingUkraineandreturningitintothefamilyofcivilized
peoplesfromtheBanderitedeadenditfindsitselfinnow.Ifthatdoesnthappen,everything
willbeverybad.IcanconfidentlysaythatUkrainemustbechangedorotherwiseitwill
disappear!

Thekeywordshere,Uvarovpointsout,arewillgreet,willnotshowinitiativeintothe
familyofcivilizedpeoplesordisappear.Translatedintothelanguageofpracticalpolitics,this
meansthatRussiawilldoeverythingtosupporttheriseofafifthcolumninUkraine,because
initsview,theonlywayforUkrainetoreturntothefamilyofcivilizednationsisunderthe
controlofRussia.Otherwise,itwilldisappear.AndthatmeansthatMoscowspuppetsin
Ukrainemustfulfilltheirmaintasktobroadentheirelectoralbase,somethingforwhich
thereareobjectivepreconditionsinUkraineitself.
TheKremlinsactionsarelogical,Uvarovsays.Buttheyarebasedonafundamental
mistake,anunderratingofthelevelofUkrainianpatriotism.Heconcludesbysayingtoday,
theUkrainiannationasneverbeforeisunitedandstrong,andaunitedpeoplecannotbe
defeated.
AtleastthreereasonsexistwhyUvarovisquitepossiblytoooptimistic,especiallyiftheWest
turnsitsattentionawayfromUkrainejustasMoscowisincreasingitsinvolvement.Firstofall,
theideaofafifthcolumnworksevenifitdoesntexist.Ifpeoplebegintosuspectthattheir
opponentsarepartofit,thatinandofitselfpoisonspoliticsandmakescooperationalmost
impossible.Second,UvarovistoodismissiveofRussiasopportunitiestostiruptroubleinthis
wayinthepoliticalsphere.Ukraineisunitedinsomeways,butitisalsodividedinmany
othersandRussiacanandwillexploitthis.
Andthird,Uvaroviswrongtolimittheideaofafifthcolumntopoliticalactivism.TheRussian
versionthistimearoundislikelytoincludebothRussian-organizedfalseflagoperationsto
discreditUkrainiannationalistsbypromotingextremistideas,andRussian-organizedbut
nominallyUkrainianparamilitaryunitsthatcanbedeployedtochallengeKyivsauthority(For
adiscussionofthesepossibilitiesandothers,seePaulW.Blackstocksclassicwork, The
StrategyofSubversion,Chicago,1964).
ThoseinclinedtoacceptaslegitimateMoscowsfulfillmentoftheMinskAccordsshould
reflectontheserealities.
--PaulGoble
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INTHISISSUE
*UkrainebypassesRussiaviaTrans-CaspianInternationalTransportRoute(TITR)
*MoscowdeploysRussianoligarchstopropupregimesintheNorthCaucasus
*RussiausesGazpromtopressureGeorgia

BypassingRussia,UkraineBecomesAnotherSilkRoadTerminus

Sinceanuprisingunseatedthepro-RussianregimeofUkrainianPresidentViktorYanukovych
inFebruary2014,relationsbetweenKyivandMoscowhavegonefrombadtoworse.
RespondingtoarecentbanofUkrainianimportsandseekingawaytoreachpost-Soviet
CentralAsianstatesandEastAsiawithouttransitingRussia,onJanuary15Ukraine
dispatcheda30-carcontainertrainfromIllichivskalongtheTrans-CaspianInternational
TransportRoute(TITR)onatestjourneythroughGeorgia,AzerbaijanandKazakhstanto
China,utilizingferriesacrosstheCaspianandBlackSeas.WhileUkrainesinitialexpectations
fortheroutearemodest,intimeitcouldbecomeasignificantelementinthemulti-vector
railwaynetworkslowlyemergingacrossEurasia.

BybecominginvolvedwithTITR,currentlyrunningfromChinaviaKazakhstan,Azerbaijan,
GeorgiaandTurkeytoEurope,Ukraineisforgingneweconomicrelationswithpost-Soviet
CaucasianandCentralAsianstatesalongarouteterminatinginChina.TITRisakey
componentinChinas"OneBeltOneRoad"initiativetoestablishmulti-modaltransportlinks
acrossEurasia.WhileUkrainehashadmaritimetradewithChina,thenewraillinebypassing
Russiahaseconomicpotentialforbothstates,aswellasthosealongthewayintheformof
transitfees.

UkrainesinterestintherouteintensifiedafterRussiaonJanuary1bannedmostUkrainian
foodexportsandimposedhighertaxesonthefewremainingindustrialproductsthatUkraine
exportedtotheRussianmarket,thesamedayUkraine'sfree-tradeagreementwiththe
EuropeanUnioncameintoforce.Thefree-tradedeal,signedinJune2014,threemonthsafter
CrimeajoinedRussia,ispartofthebroaderEUAssociationAgreementandgrantsUkraine
tariff-freeaccesstotheEU'smarket,withBrusselsexpectingittoboostUkraine'sstruggling
economy.
UkrainianparticipationinTITRisakeyelementinthecountry'seffortstolessenRussia's
influenceonitseconomybydevelopingtraderoutesinconjunctionwithotherpost-Soviet
statesseekingtoexpandtheirmulti-vectortransportoptions.Beyondtrade,thenewroutehas
strategicimplicationsforUkraine.VadimSidiachenko,theheadoftheeconomicdepartment
oftheUkrainianembassyinAzerbaijan,observed,WhenRussiabannedtransportationof
Ukrainiangoodsthroughtheircountry,theTrans-Caspiancorridorbecamestrategicfor
Ukraine.TheUkrainianembassyiscloselycooperatingwithallAzerbaijan'stransportation
entities,particularlyAzerbaijanRailwaysandthegovernment'sCoordinatingCouncilfor
TransitCargo.WeapplaudasgoodthedecisiontoestablishtheCoordinatingCouncil,
becauseithasbecomeasinglewindowthroughwhichwecansolvetransitissues,wherewe
havealreadysolvedcertainissuesontariffsandtransportation(Trend,January17,2016).
Thefeasibilityofthetraderoutewasfirstdemonstratedlastyear,whenChinasfirsttest
containertrainarrivedintheBakuInternationalSeaTradePortviatherouteinearlyAugust
(Xinhua,August4,2015).Thetrain,carrying82containerson41railcars,departedShihezi,
ChinaonJuly28(AzerNews,August3,2015).
ThenewrouteismoreexpensivethantransitinggoodsthroughRussia.Commentingonthe
launchofthenewrailinitiativetoChinathroughGeorgiaandAzerbaijan,UkrainianPrime
MinisterArseniyYatsenyukremarked,Indevelopingthetrainroute,thefirststepisensuring
aroutethatbypassesRussiaandcreatesalternativesforexportingUkrainiangoods.I'llbe
honest,thefirstphaseisexpensive.Butifweloadthetrainandincreasethevolumeof
traffic,wewillgetthesamelogisticscosts,asbeforetheintroductionofthetransitbanby
Russia(UNIAN,January22,2016).
UkrainianRailwaysActingChairmanAleksandrZavgorodniiprovidedparticularsofthenew
railwayinitiative,saying,ThenewUkrainianferry-traincontainerroute,whichis3,400miles,
willtakeabout1012days.Thetesttrainisonscheduleoperatinginthemodeofapassenger
trainataspeedof50milesanhour.Thisisafairlyhighspeed,whichwillcompetewithroad
transport.Inlaunchingthepilottrainitwasimportanttoworkouttheferrylogistics.Currently
eightferriesareoperatingontheBlackSeaandontheCaspian,13(OdesskaiaZhizn,
January20,2016).
ThepoliticalfalloutfromTITRhasalreadybegun,withpost-Sovietnationsscramblingto
reassureRussiaoftheirbenignintentions.OnJanuary15,KazakhFirstDeputyPrime
MinisterBakytzhanSagintayevsaid,Theissueisnotthatanumberofcountrieshave
gatheredtogetherandarepursuingaweirdpolicyregardingRussiaaimedatmakingitbreak
offrelationshipintheareaoffreetradewithUkraine.Itsabsolutelynotthecase(TASS,
January15,2016).HowRussiawillexpressitsdispleasurewithAzerbaijan,Georgiaand
KazakhstanassistingUkrainebroadenitsexportoptionsbeyondRussiawilleventually
emergeasforMoscowexpressingannoyancewithChinasparticipation,Russiahasfarfewer
cardstoplay.
UkrainesintentionindispatchingitstesttrainisobvioustocircumventRussiasprevious
monopolyofeast-westtradeviatheTran-SiberianRailway,whichheldamonopolyonthe
Eurasiantransitofgoodsformorethanacenturyafteritscompletion.Similarly,Russias
intentionsareequallyevidenttohamstringtheUkrainianeconomybynotonlydeprivingitof
accesstotheRussianmarket,butbybanningtransittodenyUkraineentrytothepromising
marketsofAzerbaijan,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,ChinaandotherAsiancountries.What
remainstobeseenistheformandvolumeofUkrainesAsianTITRtrade,andwhetheritwill
provideKievwithpositivetradebalances,orsimplyturnUkraineintoanotheremporiumof
ChinesegoodsalongtheSilkRoad.

--JohnC.K.Daly
Karachaevo-CherkessiaFacesEconomicUncertainty
OnJanuary19,PresidentVladimirPutinmetwiththegovernorofKarachaevo-Cherkessia,
RashidTemrezov,inMoscow.Temrezovreportedthattherepublicreduceditsdependence
ontheRussianfederalbudgetin2015,andthattaxcollectionratesandtherepublican
economyoverallwerebetterlastyearthanin2014and2013.Newbusinessesand
enterprisesareopeninginKarachaevo-Cherkessia,hesaid,whileinvestorsareproceeding
withtheirinvestmentplansintherepublic(Kremlin,January19).
Karachaevo-Cherkessiasgovernorsoundedparticularlyupbeataboutthesituationinhis
republicbecausehisfirsttermendsinMarchandhehassetouttoprovethatheisincharge
ofthesituation.Inreality,however,2015turnedouttobequitetumultuousfortheauthorities
inKarachaevo-Cherkessia.Ethnicgroupsintherepublicbecamemuchmorepoliticallyactive
comparedtopreviousyears.TheCherkess(Circassians),Abaza,andeventhenormally
complacentethnicRussianscriticizedtherepublicanauthoritiesforthecontinuingdeterioration
oftheeconomyandlackofgovernmentaltransparency.Eventhedominantethnicgroupinthe
republic,theKarachays,ralliedagainsttherepublicangovernor.InDecember,theusually
calmrepublicsawaspecialcounter-insurgencyoperationinwhichthreesuspectedmilitants
werekilled(Politika09.com,January4).
AgainstthebackdropofRussiasdeterioratingeconomicsituation,thepoliticalforcesinthe
republicstartedorganizingachallengetoTemrezovsleadership,withthetwocompeting
Circassianclans,theDerevsandArashukovs,reportedlymakingpeace.Theopposition
amongtheKarachayswasalsosolidified(Politika09.com,January11),reportedlyledbythe
individualswhoareclosetoformerrepublicanpresidentMustafaBatdyev.
Karachaevo-Cherkessiahasnotalwaysbeenrelativelystablecomparedtoitsneighborsinthe
NorthCaucasus,and,infact,wasknownforextremelyvolatileeventsuniquetothis
multiethnicrepublic.Forexample,duringthe1999regionalpresidentialelections,supporters
oftheKarachaycandidate,VladimirSemyonov,clashedwithsupportersoftheCircassian
candidate,VladislavDerev,overtheresults,nearlysendingtherepublicintoadownward
spiralofviolence.SemyonovrejectedcallsbyMoscowtostepdowntocalmthesituation
andtheCircassiansthreatenedtosecedefromKarachaevo-Cherkessiaandformtheirown
autonomousregionwithintheRussianFederation.Semyonovultimatelywonthestandoffand
ruledtherepublicforonepresidentialterm.
Anotherunprecedentedeventtookplaceintherepublicinthefallof2004,whentheson-in-
lawofMustafaBatdyev,whowasthenKarachaevo-Cherkessiaspresident,andhis
associateskilledandburnedseveralprominentlocalbusinessmen.Relativesofthevictims
stagedaprotestintherepublicancapitalCherkessk,andinresponsetothegovernments
inactionandattemptstocoverupthecrime,stormedthegovernmentbuilding,forcingMustafa
Batdyevtoflee.Theprotestersoccupiedrepublicangovernmentbuildingsanddemandeda
fairinvestigationandBatdyevsresignation.
Thus,seeminglyquietKarachaevo-Cherkessiahasanextremelyvolatilerecenthistory.Some
oftherepublicslargeenterprises,suchastheKavkaztsementcementproducingplant,have
announcedlargelayoffs(Politika09.com,January13).UnderpressurefromMoscow,the
republicangovernmentreduceditsbudget,which,eventhoughitmayhavepleasedthe
Russiangovernment,furtherexacerbatedthesituationintherepublic.Moscowthendecided
tocometotherescueofKarachaevo-CherkessiasgovernmentbyusingRussianoligarchs.
TheRussianJoint-StockFinancialCorporation SistemaboughtYuzhny,thelargestclosed
groundagriculturalbusinessinRussia,whichislocatedinKarachaevo-Cherkessia.The
businesswasinitiallyvaluedatnearly$100million,butmayhavebeensoldforamuchlower
price.TheenterprisewillalsoreregisteritselfinKarachaevo-CherkessiainsteadofMoscow
andpaytaxeslocally,whichislikelytoprovideaheftyboosttotherepublicanbudget.
VladimirYevtushenkovsSistemareportedlyhasgoneonaspreeofacquiringagricultural
enterprisesinsouthernRussia,apparentlytakingadvantageofthedireconditionmanyofthese
enterprisesarein(KavkazskayaPolitika,January21).
LargeacquisitionsinRussia,especiallyiftheyaretakingplaceintheNorthCaucasus,are
almostalwaysapprovedordirectedbytheRussianpoliticalestablishment.Giventhecurrent
economicdownturn,Moscowscoffersarequicklydryingup,duetothelowenergyprices,
economicsanctionsandabsenceofeconomicreforms.TheRussiangovernmentsstrategyof
providingfundstotherepublicangovernorsintheNorthCaucasusandreceivingtheirloyalty
inreturnalsoappearstobechanging.Underthenewcrisisconditions,themoneyofRussian
oligarchsisoneofthesourcestheRussiangovernmentiscountingontoensurethattheNorth
CaucasusremainsfinanciallydependentonMoscow.However,itisunclearwhether,giventhe
currenteconomicdownturn,theRussianoligarchswillbeabletoinvestanysubstantial
amountsofresourcesintheNorthCaucasustokeepthelocalelitesloyaltotheRussian
government.
--ValeryDzutsati
GazpromPresentsHarshUltimatumtoGeorgia
TheVicePrimeMinisterandMinisterofEnergyofGeorgia,KakhaKaladze,andatop
officialattheRussianenergygiantGazprom,YelenaBurmistrova,failedtoreachanagreement
duringthelatestroundoftalksinVienna(Rustavi2,January21).TheGeorgianMinistryof
Energyissuedastatementattheconclusionofthetalksthatcontainedmorediplomatic
declarationsthanactualinformation.Thesubjectofthetalkshasnotchangedandtheywill
continue,thestatementsaid(Energy.gov.ge,January20).
Earlier,KaladzerepeatedlyemphasizedthattheprimarysubjectofthetalkswithGazprom
wastheRussianproposalessentiallyademandtomonetizetheGeorgianpaymentforthe
RussiangastransittoArmenia(CivilGeorgia,January12).
AccordingtotheagreementbetweenRussia,GeorgiaandArmeniathatwassignedin1992
immediatelyafterthedisbandmentoftheUSSR,Georgiatakes10percentoftheRussiangas
suppliestoArmeniaaspaymentfortransit.Theagreementwasregularlyrenewedeveryyear
since,withoutanyofthepartiesquestioningit(Vestikavkaza.ru,October1,2015).
However,thefallinenergypricesandthecorrespondingfallofthepricefortransit(a
relationshipwidelyacceptedworldwide),combinedwiththeliftingoftheIransanctionsand
theriseofRussianambitionsintheregion,promptedMoscowtochangeitstacticsanddeliver
aharshultimatumtoGeorgiathroughGazprom.Gazpromisrightlyconsideredtobethe
Kremlinsgeopoliticaltool.
KaladzeneverconcealedthatduringhisthreepreviousmeetingswiththeheadofGazprom,
AlekseiMiller,thelatterinsistedonthemonetizationofpaymentforthetransitofRussian
naturalgastoArmenia.GazpromsCEOcitedtheEuropeanEnergyCharterandtheWorld
TradeOrganizations(WTO)rulestosupporthisclaim.Ironically,Millercitedthevery
internationalagreementsthatGazpromhasrepeatedlybrokenbyintroducingembargosand
takingotherextravagantstepsagainstGeorgia,amongothercountries(seeEDM,March28,
2006).
IftheGeorgiansidefailstoacceptGazpromsconditions,thecompanythreatenstosuspend
thetransitofgastoArmeniaviaGeorgiaentirely,instead,providingsuppliestoArmeniafrom
Iranviathecompanyspipeline.AccordingtoKaladze,monetizationofthepaymentforgas
transitisnotbeneficialtotheGeorgianside,butheispreparedtoconsideritifTbilisihas
someguaranteesthatitwillnotlosepartofthenaturalgasaftermonetizationandretainthe
energybalanceinthecountry(Ipress.ge,December10,2015).
However,theproblemisthatMiller,whorepresentsMoscow,ispreparedtosellnaturalgas
toGeorgiaonlyinexchangeforcertainconcessions.AsindependentanalystDavidAvalishvili
stated,Georgiawill,ofcourse,receivethepaymentforthetransitofnaturalgastoArmenia
accordingtotheinternationaltariffs,butitishighlyquestionablewhetherthecountrywillbe
abletobuythesame10percentoftransitedgastoArmeniafromRussiaforthatmoney.
Moscowwillgiveitsconsenttothatonlyinexchangeforarangeofgeopoliticalconcessions,
forexample,theopeningoftherailwaylinkviaoccupiedAbkhaziatowardtheRussianbases
inArmeniagivingmonopolystatustoGazpromontheGeorgianmarketorevenhalting
cooperationwithNATOandtheEU(AuthorsInterview,January22).
AcolumnistatthenewsagencyGHN,GelaKalandadze,saysthatGazpromhasserious
trumpcardsinthisgame.Firstofall,GeorgiacannotimportmoregasfromAzerbaijanusing
thetwoexistinggaspipelinesatleastuntil2019,whenthethirdpipeline,ShahDeniz2,
launches.Currentlytheexistingpipelinesareoperatingatthelimitoftheircapacity.Georgia
receivesabout9millioncubicmetersofnaturalgasperdayduringwintertimethroughthem.
Inaddition,thecountryreceives2.5millioncubicmetersofgasaspaymentforthetransitof
RussiangastoArmenia.Jointlyitis11.5millioncubicmeters,whichisaminimalamountof
gasthatisneededforthenormaloperationoftheGeorgianenergysystem,theexpertsaid
(AuthorsInterview,January22).
AccordingtoKalandadze,Georgianauthoritiesfindthemselvesbetweentwobadandvery
badchoices.Theexpertstates,IfGazprommakesgoodonitsthreat,suspendsgastransit
and/orrefusestosellnaturalgastoGeorgiaaftermonetization,itwilldestabilizetheenergy
balanceinthecountry.Gasandelectricitytariffswillinevitablyrise,whichwillproduce
discontentamongthepeopleandthedeclineofpopularityoftherulingcoalitionGeorgian
Dream.Allofthesewillhappenduringtheyearofparliamentaryelections.Gazprombetson
this,demandinggeopoliticalconcessionstotheKremlinfromthegovernmentofGiorgi
Kvirikashvili(AuthorsInterview,January22).
TheexpertdoubtsthattheKremlinsthreattostopgastransittoArmeniaviaGeorgiaisa
bluff,GazpromcansendhalfofthegasthatArmenianeedsfromIranalreadythisyear.The
remainingdeficitofenergyinArmeniathiswintercanbealleviatedwithaquickexportof
othertypesofenergyviaIran,suchasheavyfueloilthatcanbeusedatelectricplantsthatuse
naturalgas.Also,thenuclearstationinArmeniamayincreaseitselectricityoutput.When
Russiangeopoliticalinterestsandachancetochangetheforeignpolicyorientationofthe
Georgiangovernmentareatstake,Moscowiswillingtosustainsomemateriallosses.The
sanctionsfromIranhavebeenlifted.ThethroughputofthegaspipelinefromIrantoArmenia
canbedoubledbynextwinter.AlsoitshouldnotbeforgottenthatanotherRussiancompany,
Inter-Rao,isthesupplierofelectricitytoGeorgiaanditisalsoactingintheinterestsofthe
Kremlin.
Kalandadzestatesthatinthecurrentsituation,Georgianauthoritieshaveonlyonechoiceif
theydonotwanttocapitulatebeforetheKremlin.Theyshouldhonestlytellthepublicthat
weallneedtobepatientandenduredifficultiesatleastuntil2019-2020whenGeorgiawillbe
abletoreceivemorenaturalgasfromAzerbaijanviathenewgaspipelinethatisunder
construction,theexperttoldJamestown.
UponhisreturnfromthetalksinVienna,MinisterKaladzetoldjournaliststhatGeorgiastill
receives10percentofthenaturalgasthatflowsfromRussiatoArmeniaviaGeorgia.The
Georgiangovernmentdidnotagreetomonetization,becausethereisnoguaranteethatthe
countrywillbeabletobuythesameamountofnaturalgasorthatGazpromwillagreetosell
gaswithoutachangeinGeorgiasforeignpolicy(Netgazeti.ge,January20).

ItappearsthatGeorgianauthoritiesarehopingthatMoscowwillnottakesucharadicalstep
asstoppingthetransitofnaturalgasviatheGeorgianterritory.However,givenhowoftenthe
RussiangovernmenthasusedGazpromasaninstrumentofgeopoliticalpressurepreviously,
thishopemaybeexcessivelyoptimistic.Russiasviewoftheissuewillbeclarifiedinthenext
fewmonthsorevenweeks.
--GiorgiMenabde
Forward ReadLater
States.
disputes.

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Subject: TheDaily202:HillarybetsherprosecantriumphoverBerniespoetry
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HillarybetsherprosecantriumphoverBerniespoetry
HillaryspeaksduringaDemocratictownhallinDesMoineslastnight.(PatrickT.Fallon/Bloomberg)
THEBIGIDEA:
HillaryClintonsaidlastnightthatshelovesthenewBernieSandersadsettoSimonand
Garfunkelsinging,TheyveallcometolookforAmerica.Thenshetriedtoofferareality
check.
Now,look,shesaidduringatownhallinDesMoines.Youcampaigninpoetry.You
governinprose.Andweneedalotmorepoetryinthiscampaign.ButIbelievethatImthe
betterpersontobetheDemocraticnominee,andthecommanderinchief.
Thecampaign-in-poetry,govern-in-prosetropewascoinedbythelateMarioCuomo,the
liberalNewYorkgovernor.WasitacoincidencethatCuomosson,Chris,wasmoderating
theeventforCNN?
ForClinton,itgavefreshlifetoamantrathatsheunsuccessfullytriedtouseasacudgel
againstthen-Sen.Obamain2008."Youcampaignwithpoetry,butyougovernwithprose,
sheoftensaid,downplayinghisrhetoricalabilities.
Inaninterviewpublishedearlieryesterday,PresidentObamadismissedcomparisonsof
Sanderstohimselforthiscampaignto2008."Idon'tthinkthat'strue,"ObamatoldPolitico.
HesaidthefactthatClintonknows"everypolicyinsideandoutcouldmakehermore
cautious,andhercampaignmoreprosethanpoetry."
Justlikelasttime,Clinton,lockedinaneck-and-neckraceinIowa,istryingtograbthe
mantleofchangelateinthegame.Lastnight,shehadamomentthatmighthelp.Afirst-time
caucus-goerwhosaidhesleaningtowardSanderstoldClintonthatmanyofhisfriendsfind
hertobedishonestandinauthentic.Ivebeenonthefrontlinesofchangeandprogress
sinceIwasyourage,shereplied.Ivetakenonthestatusquotimeandtimeagain.The
crowdlovedit.
Thetwonewsiestquotesfromthenight
Sandersonhisambitiousplans:"Yes,wewillraisetaxes.Yeswewill."
Clintononheremailserver:Imnotwillingtosayitwasanerrorinjudgmentbecause
nothingIdidwaswrong.
WHILEYOUWERESLEEPING:
--FederalofficesinD.C.willremainclosedtodayasthecityrecoversfromthe
snowstorm.Soiseverymajorschoolsystemintheregion.(Listhere.)
Metromostlyresumedrailserviceat5a.m.ButitcouldnotopentheSilverLine,and
atthelastminutethetransitagencysaidworkersareunabletorestoretrainserviceat
fourOrangeLinestationsthatwereexpectedtoreopen:Vienna,DunnLoring,West
FallsChurchandEastFallsChurch.Busservicewillbeexpandedoverthecourseof
today,althoughitisstillextremelylimited.(Thelatestontheclean-upeffortishere.)
Tragedy1:AsnowplowhitapedestrianwalkingdownthestreetinMontgomery
Countyabout8p.m.Themansinjuriesaredescribedassignificantbutnotlife
threatening.(MartinWeil)
Tragedy2:AfamilyinNewJerseywastryingtodigitswayoutwhenthechillbecame
toomuchtohandle.Themotherandherchildrenages1and3huddledinthe
carwiththeenginerunningtokeepwarm.Thekidsfathertriedtoclearthesnow
outside.Butthetailpipewascloggedwithsnow,pushingdeadlycarbonmonoxidegas
intothecar.Whenthefatherwenttocheckonthem,hecouldnotwakethemup.
(LindseyBever)
Today'sweather:Ourwarmingandmeltingtrendpicksupanothernotchas
temperaturessurgeaheadofanapproachingcoldfront,theCapitalWeatherGang
forecasts.Partlytomostlycloudyskieswithwarmermorningtemperaturesallowhighs
toreachthemid-to-upper40s.Aslightchanceofrainshowersshowupbylate
afternoonintoevening."
--Obamabannedsolitaryconfinementforjuvenilesinfederalprisons,sayingthe
practiceisoverusedandhasthepotentialfordevastatingpsychologicalconsequences.In
anop-edthatappearsintoday'sPost,thepresidentoutlinesaseriesofexecutiveactions
thatalsoprohibitfederalcorrectionsofficialsfrompunishingprisonerswhocommit"low-
levelinfractions"withsolitaryconfinement."Thenewrulesalsocallforexpandingtreatment
formentallyillprisoners,"JulietEilperinscoops."Whilethepresidentsreformsapply
broadlytotheroughly10,000federalinmatesservingtimeinsolitaryconfinement,thereare
onlyahandfulofjuvenileoffendersplacedinrestrictivehousingeachyear.Between
September2014andSeptember2015,federalauthoritieswerenotifiedofjust13juveniles
whowereputinsolitaryinitsprisons."Readtheop-edhere.
--Thecreatoroftheanti-PlannedParenthoodvideoswasindictedonfelony
charges."AHoustongrandjurythatwasinvestigatingaccusationsofcriminalmisconduct
againstPlannedParenthoodinsteadindictedtheleaderofananti-abortiongroupthat
recordedcovertvideosoftheorganizationsemployees,"DaniellePaquettereports."Harris
CountyDistrictAttorneyDevonAndersonsaidDavidDaleiden,thedirectoroftheCenterfor
MedicalProgress,facesafelonychargeoftamperingwithagovernmentalrecordanda
misdemeanorcountrelatedtobuyinghumantissue.SandraMerritt,oneofDaleidens
employees,wasalsoindictedonachargeoftamperingwithagovernmentalrecord.The
grandjuryclearedPlannedParenthoodGulfCoastofanywrongdoing.TexasGov.Greg
Abbottsaid,however,thattheinspectorgeneralofthestatesHealthandHumanServices
CommissionandtheTexasattorneygeneralsofficewouldcontinuetoinvestigatePlanned
Parenthoodsactions."
--OneweekbeforeIowa,abrandnewWashingtonPost/ABCNewspollshows
DonaldTrumpsolidifyinghisnationallead.RepublicansseeTrumpasthestrongest
candidateonmajorissuesandbyfarthemostelectableinthelargefieldofGOPhopefuls,
DanBalzandScottClementwrite.ThebusinessmogulleadsthenationalGOPfieldby16
points,at37percent,withTedCruzplacing2nd,at21percent.MarcoRubioisin3rdwith
11percent,followedbyBenCarson(7percent)andJebBush(5percent).Trumps
supportersaremorecommittedtohimthanthoseofhisrivals,with57percentsayingthey
willdefinitelyvoteforhim(comparedto34percentforalltheothercandidates).Inabig
shift,6of10RepublicansseeTrumpasmostlikelytowintheGOPnod,andTheDonald
leadsamongalldemographicgroups(includingwhiteevangelicals,thoughhisstrongest
supportcomesfromthosewithincomeunder$50,000).Trumpssuccessappearsbolstered
bythefindingthat9in10GOPerssaythecountryisseriouslyonthewrongtrack,and8in
10aredissatisfiedwiththefederalgovernment.Seethefullresultshere.
--TheresultsaremuchcloserinIowa,whereTrumpleadsCruzby2points(31to29
percent)amonglikelyRepublicancaucus-goers,accordingtonewnumbers
releasedthismorningbyQuinnipiacUniversity.Rubioplaces3rdwith13percentwith
noothercandidatebreaking7percent.TheresultsareprettymuchthesameastheQpolls
Jan.11survey.Only2percentareundecided,though39percentofthosewhopickeda
candidatemightchangetheirminds.
--TheDemocraticcontestintheHawkeyeStateisalsonarrowing.Clintonleads
Sandersby6points(48to42percent),downfrom14pointsinearlyDecember,according
toaFoxNewspollreleasedlastnight.Bernieisgainingamongmen(a2-pointDecember
edgegrewisa12-pointadvantagenow),whileHillaryislosinggroundamongthose45and
olderandthosewithcollegedegrees.Nationally,Clintonsnumbersarealsoslipping,with
49percentsupportingher(downfrom54percenttwoweeksago)comparedto37percent
forSanders(alsodown,from39percent).Undecidedsrosefrom2to10percent.TheFox
NewsPollsaysthattheClintonerosioncomespartiallyfromfallingsupportamongblack
voters,67percentofwhomnowbackher(comparedto78percenttwoweeksagoand84
percentinDecember).
WelcometoTheDaily202,withcontributionsfromMichaelSmith.Signuptoreceivethe
newsletter.Programmingnote:Wearelaunchinganewback-endsystemtoprepareand
publishthismorning.Itshouldnotimpactyouruserexperience.But,ifitdoes,pleaseflag
anyissuestopowerpost@washpost.com.Thankyouforreading.
GETSMARTFAST:
1. TheSupremeCourtruledthatteenagerssentencedtomandatorylifesentencesfor
murdermusthaveachancetoargueforrelease.Theruling,whichisretroactive,could
affectasmanyas1,500inmatesnationwide.(RobertBarnes)
2. SCOTUSalsoupheldaFederalEnergyRegulatoryCommissionrulethat
electricitygeneratorshate.The6-2decisionisawinforObamaandthe
environmentalists.(RobertBarnes)
3. NewHampshirehasdesignatedtwojudgestohearvoterandballotchallenges
duringtheFeb.9primary,whenanewvoterIDlawgoesintoeffect.(AP)
4. Atleast20werekilledwhenISISmilitantssetoffmultiplebombsatagovernment-run
securitycheckpointinHoms,Syria.(AP)
5. TheTalibanclaimedresponsibilityafteranAfghanpolicemanfatallyshot10ofhis
fellowofficersinKandaharbeforefleeing.(AP)
6. TheU.N.willconveneSyrianpeacetalksonFriday,butPresidentBasharal-
Assadsgovernmentandhisopponentswillnolongermeetface-to-face,whichwas
partoftheoriginalplan.(LizSly)
7. JohnKerry,meetingwithCambodianleaders,expressedconcernoverthe
governmentsrecordonhumanrightsandcorruption.Thevisitfocusedontradeand
investment.(CarolMorello)
8. Theownerofagunshopandhissonwerekilledduringashootoutwithtwo
customers,whowereinjuredinthegunfire,afteranargumentovera$25fee.(Sarah
Larimer)
9. Federalauthoritiesaresearchingforthreemenwhoescapedfromamaximum-
securityprisoninSouthernCalifornia.(PeterHolley)
10. AirbusisoneofseveralcompaniesalreadytryingtosellproductstoIrannowthat
economicsanctionshavebeenlifted.(NewYorkTimes)
11. TheUniversityofMissouriprofessorwhocalledfor"muscle"topushoutstudent
journaliststryingtocovercampusprotestswaschargedwithassault.(SusanSvrluga)
12. Indianaseconomylostasmuchas$60millionin2015whenseveralorganizations
decidednottohosteventsinIndianapolisbecauseofthestatescontroversialreligious
libertylaw.(AP)
13. ScientistsfoundevidenceofamasscareinKenya10,000yearsago,makingitthe
oldestactofhumanwarfare.(Reuters)
POWERPLAYERSINTHENEWS:
1. Sen.EdwardMarkey(D-Mass.)putaholdonPresidentObama'snomineetohead
theFDAbecausehewantstheagencytodomoreabouttheabuseofopioid
painkillers.(BradyDennis)
2. MartinShkreli,theex-biotechexecutivefacingfraudcharges,gotpermissionfroma
judgetotraveltoD.C.totestifyondrugpricingbeforetheHouseCommitteeon
OversightandGovernmentReformonFeb.4.(Bloomberg)
3. ScottWalkerlistedhisthree-bedroomWisconsinhousefor$338,000.Helivesinthe
governor'smanion,andtweetedthathe'slookingto"downsize"nowthatheandhis
wifeareemptynesters.(Politico)
4. ZephyrTeachout,theprotestcandidateagainstGov.AndrewCuomo(D-N.Y.)inthe
2014primary,isrunningtosucceedretiringRepublicanRep.Chris
Gibson.(PoughkeepsieJournal)
5. GeorgeH.W.Bushandhiswife,Barbara,calledNikkiHaleytocongratulateherfor
herStateoftheUnionresponse.(CharlestonPostandCourier)
6. BritishexplorerHenryWorsley,attemptingthefirstunassistedsolocrossingof
Antarctica,died71daysafterstartinghisjourney.Hewaswithin30milesofhis
target.(BrianMurphy)
MOREONTHEREPUBLICANRACE--
CRUZ,SLIPPING,ISTRYINGTOREGAINHISFOOTINGINIOWAAGAINSTTRUMP:
1. Hiscampaignspentyesterdaydescribinghimas"theunderdog."(RobertCostaand
PhilipRucker)
2. TheTexassenatorwarnedagroupofpastorsinaclosed-doormeetingthat,"IfDonald
winsIowa,herightnowhasasubstantialleadinNewHampshire.Ifhewentontowin
NewHampshireaswelltheresaverygoodchancehecouldbeunstoppableand
beournominee.AndthenextsevendaysinIowawilldeterminewhetherornotthat
happens."(KatieZezima)
3. TheCruzcampaignlaunchedanattackadagainstTrump's"NewYorkvalues."It
includesanoldclipofTrumpsayingthatheispro-choiceacrosstheboardandsaying
"howstupidarethepeopleofIowa."(Watchhere.)
4. ACruzSuperPAClaunchedthreeattackadsagainstTrumpaspartofa$2.5million
buy.Onealsohighlightshispastsupportforpartial-birthabortion,usingthesame
"MeetthePress"interviewasinthecampaign'sad.Anotherspotshowsaclipof
TrumppraisingCruzin2014.AthirdslamsTrumpforbackinguniversalhealthcare,or
"Trumpcare."
5. Aseparatepro-CruzPAClaunchedaradioadinIowatodefendhisethanolstance.
(DavidWeigel)
6. MarcoRubioattackedCruzonFoxNewsforhislawclientswhileinprivate
practice.WhenTedCruzhadtochooseasalawyer,hewaschoosingtorepresent
theChinese,"Rubiosaid."HerepresentedaChinesecompanythatstolesecretsand
aproductfromanAmericancompany.Soyoucan'tgoaroundsayingyou'retoughon
Chinabutthenhavealegalrecordinwhichyouwerepaidalotofmoneytodefendthe
ChinesewhohadtakenaproductawayfromanAmericanunjustly,unfairlyand
illegally.(Watchhere.)
THEDAILYTRUMP:
1. AtopaidetoSen.JeffSessions(R-Ala.),StephenMiller,willjoinTrumpscampaign
asaseniorpolicyadviser.(Costa)
2. TheformerSouthCarolinaRepublicanstaterepresentativewhocalledNikkiHaleya
raghead,JakeKnotts,endorsedTrump.(PhilipRucker)
3. TrumptauntedMichaelBloombergonCNN:"I'dbeathim.Iwouldlovehimtodoit
actually.Youknow,weusedtobefriends.Iguesswe'renotfriendsanymore."
4. DonaldRumsfeld,alongtimeadversaryofBush41buttheDefenseSecretaryto
Bush43,saidJebisnotconnectingbecausetherearesomepeoplethatare
uncomfortablewithadynasty.RumsfeldtoldtheTodayshowthatTrumphasa
touchedanerveinourcountry.
KASICHRISING,CHRISTIEFADINGINNEWHAMPSHIRE:
1. TheBostonGlobeendorsedKasich.TheBostonHeraldendorsedChristie.
2. Kasichisgoingall-inontheGraniteState.AfterThursday'sIowadebate,hewillnot
leaveNewHampshireuntiltheprimary.Anotherpollyesterday,fromFranklinPierce
University,puttheOhiogovernoraheadoftherestoftheestablishmentcontendersin
thestate,with12percent.(EdO'Keefe)
3. Christie'sfavorabilityhasdroppedfrom53%lastmonthto41%nowamongNew
HampshireRepublicans,perCNN:"Hehasbeencrucifiedoverthelastfewweeks,"
saidMikeDennehy,anunaffiliatedRepublicanoperativeinthestate."It'sashamefor
Christiebecausehereallydidhavemomentum."Dennehycamehomefromworkone
nighttotwocampaignmailersattackingChristie'srecord.Heshruggeditoff,walked
insideandflippedonhisPandora.Thefirstadtointerrupthisstreamingmusic:an
attackonChristie.Helatergrabbedhisremoteandflippedonthenews.Therewere
back-to-backadstargetingChristie.(CNN)
MOREONTHEDEMOCRATICRACE:
1. SouthCarolinaStateRep.JustinT.Bamberg,thelawyerforWalterScott's
family,switchedhissupportfromClintontoSanders.(VanessaWilliams)
2. BillwillflytoIowaonThursdayforafour-cityswing:Waverly,MountVernon,
WashingtonandOttumwa.(AbbyPhillip)
3. Hillarys2008campaignmanager,PattiSolisDoyle,consideredquittingherpost
asanaidetotheFirstLadyin1998duringtheMonicaLewinskyscandalbutresolved
tostay.Itwasas----ythingtodotoher.Buthedidit.Shedidn'tdoit,"SolisDoyle
saidinaninterviewwithDavidAxelrodforhispodcast.Ithought,shedidn'tdo
anything.Heisthejerkhere.AndwhywouldIpunishherbyquitting?Butwhathe
didwasabsolutelyunacceptableformanyoftheyoungwomenwhowereworkingon
thatstaff.(CNNPodcast)
4. AsuperPACfoundedbyGOPmegadonorJoeRicketts,EndingSpendingAction
Fund,islaunchinga$600,000TVbuyinIowathatcallsSanderstooliberal.The
spot,firstreportedbytheNewYorkTimes,isclearlyaimedathelpingboostSanders
overClinton,highlightinghissupportfortuition-freecollege,single-payerhealthcare
andtaxincreasesonthesuper-rich.
TooLiberal
WAPOHIGHLIGHTS:
ChrisChristiehandsoverhispentoSenatePresidentStephenSweeneyaftersigninglegislationturningover
controlofAtlanticCity'scasinodistricttothestate,intheunfinishedlobbyofthestalledRevelCasinoinFeb.
2011.(TomGralish/StaffPhotographer)
--ChristiefailedtoarrestAtlanticCity'sdelineinthelatestepisodeofourDecider
series.-->AtlanticCitysMr.Fix-It,byDavidFahrenthold:Christiechoseto
interveneaggressivelyinAtlanticCitystroubles,believingthatabettergovernoranda
littlemoregovernmentcouldovercomeitssteepeconomicdecline.Sofirst,Christiehad
thestatetakeoverhalfofthecity.Butthatwasntenough.Sohetriedanewcasino.But
thatwasntenough.SohetriedInternetbetting.Butthatwasntenough...Despite
Christiesefforts,fourofthe12casinosshutdown.About7,000jobswerelost.His
interventionwentsobadlythatthestatelegislatureisconsideringwhethertorevokeAtlantic
Cityslastbestlifeline,itsstate-sanctionedmonopolyongambling.Themayorafellow
Republican,exasperatedwithChristieisconsideringmunicipalbankruptcy.Christies
decisiontointerveneherereflectshisstyleofgoverning:Confident.Pugnacious.
Braggadocious.Andsometimesunwillingtoacknowledgethelimitsofhispower.
--"HowDavidPetraeusavoidedfelonychargesandpossibleprisontime,"byAdam
Goldman:"TheJusticeDepartmenthasneverdiscussedhowitreacheditsdecisionto
acceptapleaonthelessercharge.ButsixcurrentandformerU.S.officials,aswellas
othersfamiliarwiththecase,providedthefirstdetailedlookattheinternaldebatesand
wranglingwithPetraeusslawyersthattookplacebeforetheretiredfour-stargeneral
enteredhisguiltyplea...Aspartoftheagreement,Petraeusadmittedthatheimproperly
removedandretainedhighlysensitiveinformationineightpersonalnotebooksthathegave
to[Paula]Broadwell.TheJusticeDepartmentsaidtheinformation,ifdisclosed,couldhave
caused'exceptionallygravedamage.'Officialssaidthenotebookscontainedcodewordsfor
secretintelligenceprograms,theidentitiesofcovertofficers,andinformationaboutwar
strategyanddeliberativediscussionswiththeNationalSecurityCouncil.Theplea
agreementleftsomeintheJusticeDepartmentangry,particularlyattheFBI,andsome
agentshavearguedprivatelythatitwillhamperfutureeffortstosecureprisontermsinleak
cases.Butothersinthegovernmentdefendedthedealastheonlyviableconclusiontoa
caseinwhichasuccessfulprosecutiononthemoreseriouschargeswasfarfromcertain.
'Nobodywasgoingtobehappywiththeoutcome,'aformerJusticeDepartment
officialsaid.'Therewasnothingaboutthiscasethatwastypical.'"
--Boominghealthcarecostsandgrowingdeficitscreatebudgetheadachefor
Republicans,byKelseySnell:CongressionalRepublicanshavepromisedtoinclude
deepspendingcutsintheirupcomingbudgetproposalsandnewdatashowingrising
federalhealthcarecostsandaloomingdeficitincreasewilllikelyaddtoconservatives
hungerforbigfundingreductions.Federalhealthcarecostsareexpectedtojumpto$936
billionin2016,outpacingthe$882billionprojectedspendingonSocialSecurity,according
toareportreleasedMondaybytheCongressionalBudgetOffice.Republicanswilllikely
usethelatestdatafromCBOtojustifyproposingdeepspendingcutstomandatory
spendingprograms,butGOPleaderscouldfacesometoughquestionswhenitcomesto
howmuchtoprovideforthe12annualspendingbillsbothPaulRyanandMitchMcConnell
wanttomoveearlythisyear.Republicanleadersagreedlatelastyeartoadealthat
allowsfor$30billioninnewdiscretionaryspendinginfiscal2017,anagreementthat
continuestorankleconservatives,particularlyintheHouse.
ConcepcionPicciotto,theprotesterwhomaintainedapeacevigiloutsidetheWhite
Houseformorethanthreedecades,ademonstrationwidelyconsideredtobethe
longest-runningactofpoliticalprotestinU.S.history,diedyesterdayatahousing
facilityoperatedbyNStreetVillage,anonprofitthatsupportshomelesswomenin
Washington.Shewasbelievedtobe80.Shehadrecentlysufferedafall.Picciottoa
SpanishimmigrantknowntomanyasConnieorConchitawastheprimaryguardian
oftheanti-nuclear-proliferationvigilstationedalongPennsylvaniaAvenue.
Picciottoin2010(APPhoto/CharlesDharapak)
SOCIALMEDIASPEEDREAD:
ZIGNALVISUAL:Sandersgotmorementionsonlineduringlastnights
Democraticforum:Here'satotalmentionschartduringtheeventonCNN,viaour
analyticspartnersatZignalLabs.NotehowSandersmentionsspikeduringhistimewith
ChrisCuomo,whileClinton'smentionsdidaswell.TheSandersspikewasbiggerthanthe
Clintonbounce:
Bothcandidateswereabletodrivetheirowncoverageduringthetownhall,astheselistsof
theirtoptweetsillustrate:
Picturesoftheday:
BenCohen,aco-founderofBen&Jerry's,unveiledanewicecreamflavorinhonorof
Sanders.It'scalled"Bernie'sYearning":
Here'stheflavordescription:
NASAreleasedthisphotoofastarclusterknownasTrumpler14,callingit"oneofthe
highestconcetrationsofmassive,luminousstarsintheentireMilkyWay":
HouseMajorityLeaderKevinMcCarthy(R-Calif.)stoppedatRandy'sDonutsnearLos
AngelesonhiswaybackhometoBakersfield,Calif.:
NASA'sEarthObservatorypostedthisphotooftheD.C.regionfromspace:
OnesnowlovergotcreativeusingthewindontheNationalMall:
MarkZuckerbergpostedthisphotoinhonorofhisfirstdaybackatworkafterpaternity
leave.Heasked,"WhatshouldIwear?":
Tweetsoftheday:
Watchout--HughHewittmightgetcreativewithhisoutfitatthenextdebate:
Sen.ClaireMcCaskill(D-Mo.)wascalledforjuryduty:
McCaskilllive-tweetedthewholeprocess:
Herlive-tweetscaptivatedMSNBC'sRachelMaddow:
TrumpisnotlettinggooftheCruz-was-born-in-Canadaissue:
TheWeeklyStandard'sBillKristolpredictedaCruzwininIowa:
Rep.SteveKing(R-Iowa)ismakinghisownfinalpushforCruz:
LiberalcommentatorDavidSirotasaidhe'sobservinga"freakout"ontheleftoverSanders
vs.Clinton:
CarlyFiorina'sdeputycampaignmanagerwaspleasedtosnagaflightfromDCtoIowa:
JimGilmore,whatareyoutalkingabout?
Instagramsoftheday:
BarbraStreisandmetwithSurgeonGeneralVivekMurthytotalkabouttheriskofheart
diseaseforwomen:
KasichgotahaircutatNotSoPlainJane'sinManchester,N.H.:
Rep.ErikPaulsen(R-Minn.)senttwo-dozeneggsdownalugeanddidn'tbreakasingleone
(clickforvideo):
GOODREADSFROMELSEWHERE:
--NewYorkTimes,"Beforeriseasoutsider,TedCruzplayedinsiderolein2000
recount,"byMattFlegenheimer:"Mr.Cruzrarelyinvokesthe2000raceandrecount.He
haslargelydisavowedthecomparativelymoderateBushwingoftheRepublicanPartyin
pursuitofconservativeideologicalpurity.Yethisinitialventureintopresidentialpoliticsisby
turnsaconfirmationofandacomplicationfortheprofessedCruzimage.Theraceinstalled
Mr.CruzasacreatureoftheRepublicanestablishmentbutalsohelpedstarthisdivorce
fromit.Hemadeplentyofenemiesamongpartyoperatives,accordingtointerviewswith
overadozenformercolleagues,thoughforreasonsthathadlittletodowithideology....By
theendoffivebleary-eyedweeksofhangingchadsandbutterflyballots,Mr.Cruzhad
aggressivelyworkedhislegalconnections,chafedwhenhefeltsidelinedbypartyveterans
andevenintheviewofsomewhodisparagehimhelpedensureMr.Bushsvictoryin
thecourts,toapoint.Infact,formercolleaguessay,theTedCruzof2000isentirely
recognizableinthecandidatenowaspiringtothepresidencyhimself,fusinghyper-
intelligence,cracklingambitionandalaundrylistofimpeccableinsidercredentialsthathe
oncetickedoffmorereadily.'HethoughtheshouldgettheNo.1policyjobintheWhite
House,andhewasextremelyambitious,'saidAriFleischer,Mr.Bushsformerspokesman.
'InTedscasein2000,itbackfired.'"
--HillarygivesBuzzFeedaninterview,Clintonwantstotalktoyouaboutloveand
kindness,byRubyCramer:HereishowHillaryClintonseesherself:radically
consistent,motivatedbyacorephilosophyvoicednowthroughtwowordsrarely
associatedwithher.Loveandkindness.Ifthissoundsunlikely,sheknowsit.For50years,
shesstruggledtoexplainthevaluesthatmotivateherinpubliclife,asacandidate,asa
person.Theonetimeshereallytriedto,intheearly1990s,shewasbrutallymocked.Inthe
viewofsomeofherclosestaides,Clintonneverfullyrecoveredfromthecriticalbacklash.
AsClintonseesit,shesreallytalkingaboutashorthandforherpersonalandpolitical
beliefs,foralltheimpulsesthatshapewhatshedoesandhowshedoesit.Evenifno
oneviewsherthatway.Evenifshesneverbeenquiteabletoexplainit.Evenifher
earnesteffortstoconnectwithpeoplearehamperednotjustbyherimage,butbytheactual
barriersofpubliclife.Aftersomanyyears,howdoyouconvinceanationfullofpeoplewho
thinktheyknoweverythingaboutyouthattheydont?
--BostonGlobe,"TrumpandSandersleadthepackwithbigpromises,"byMatt
ViserandAnnieLinskey:"TrumpandSandershavevirtuallynothingincommonexcept
foroutsiderstatusandpie-in-the-skypolicypriorities,whichtheysellwithhighlycharged
emotionalappealstargeteddirectlyatvoterseconomicandsocialanxieties.Trumpsayshe
wouldbuildawallalongtheSouthernborder,andmakeMexicopayforit....Hewould
temporarilybanMuslimsfromenteringtheUnitedStates...HesayshewouldforceAppleto
buildallofitsproductsintheUnitedStates...InseemingdisregardofUSandglobaltrade
rules,hewantstoslapastiff,blankettariffonimportedChinesegoods....Sanders,theself-
describeddemocraticsocialist,hewsmorecloselytolegalrealitiesthanTrump,buthestill
campaignsonanaspirationalplatformofpoliticallongshots.Hevowstobreakupthebig
banks.Hewantstogiveeverystudenttheoptionofgoingtocollegewithoutpayingforit.
Heenvisionsahealthcaresysteminwhicheveryoneiscovered,includingundocumented
immigrants.Hewantstomandatethatemployerspayfornewparentstostayhomewith
theirbabiesforthreemonths.WhilehesaystheUnitedStatesshouldbemorelike
Denmark,heneglectstomentionthattheScandinaviancountryhasa55percentincome
taxrate.Theunrealisticnatureoftheirpromisesisastartlingfeatureofa2016campaign
fullofsurprises,ascandidateswhooncewouldhavebeendismissedasfringeplay
dominantroles."
--Politico,StateDept.watchdogtiedtoearlierClintonprobe,byJoshGerstein:A
lawyeroverseeinginvestigationsintoHillaryClintonsemailpracticeshasahistoryof
tanglingwiththeformerfirstladyspoliticaloperation:Hewasafederalprosecutorinvolved
inaprobethatled,adecadeago,totheunsuccessfulprosecutionofatopClinton
fundraisingaide.DavidSeidenowtheactingsenioradvisertotheStateDepartment
inspectorgeneralgatheredevidencethatsurfacedinthecaseagainstDavidRosen,the
nationalfinancedirectorofClintons2000Senatebid.SeidestietotheRosencaseis
fuelingconcernsamongClintonsalliesthatvariousinquiriesrelatingtoheruseofaprivate
emailserverarebeingskewedagainsther.However,theinspectorgeneralsofficedenies
anyconflictandsaysSeidesconnectiontotheearlierprosecutionwasaremoteone.
--Politico,"WhenCruzWantedtoBePartoftheEstablishment,byShane
GoldmacherandDanielLippman:"Fiveyearsago,asCruzplottedhispathtotheU.S.
Senate,theanti-establishmentcrusadersoughtaprivateaudiencewithandthebackingof
oneofthefacesofthemodernGOPestablishment:GeorgeW.Bush.Inanever-before-
reportedmeetinginBushsDallasoffice,Cruzbegantooutlinehis2012campaignplaybook
fortheformerpresidentCruzexplainedhowhewouldconsolidateconservatives
yearningforapoliticaloutsider,howhewouldoutflankthefront-runnerontheright,howhe
wouldproudlycarrythemantleoftheascendantteapartytovictoryoverentrenchedelites.
BushcutCruzoffbeforehecouldfinish.'Iguessyoudontwantmysupport,'Bush
interrupted.'Ted,whatthehelldoyouthinkIam?'"
HOTONTHELEFT HOTONTHERIGHT
ARepublicanstaterepresentative FoxNewssaidTrumpisafraidof
inTennesseesteppeddownas MegynKelly.FromPolitico:"Sooner
majoritywhipoverinappropriatetext orlaterDonaldTrump,evenifhes
messagestofemalecolleagues.The president,isgoingtohavetolearn
Tennesseansaysmanyofhis thathedoesntgettopickthe
colleaguesarenowcallingonhimto journalistswereverysurprised
resignaltogether. heswillingtoshowthatmuchfear
aboutbeingquestionedbyMegyn
Kelly,"anetworkspokespersonsaid.
DAYBOOK:
Sixdaysfromthecaucuses,it'sanIowaheavydayonthetrail.
HillaryspeaksinDecorahandCedarFalls,beforesheheadstoMarshalltown.
Trump,alsoinIowa,willbeinMarshalltownandIowaCitybeforeholdingarallyinIowa
City.
Sanders'bustourgoestoDesMoines.
CruzholdseventsinDesMoines,Albia,Centreville,Bloomfield,Ottumwa,Fairfield
andKeosauqua.
RubioisinPella,Oskaloosa,MarshalltownandWestDesMoines.
CarsoncampaignsinDesMoines.
KasichmakesstopsinNewBoston,RindgeandAmherst,N.H.
FiorinaheadstoColfax,IowaCityandMt.Pleasant.
SantorumcampaignsinWilliamsburg,Monticello,Dubuque,Anamosa,CedarRapidsand
Monroe,Iowa.
HuckabeegoestoAnkeny,Newton,PellaandIndianola.
AttheWhiteHouse:PresidentObamaandVicePresidentBidenwillmeetwithNancy
PelosiandHarryReidat11:15a.m.todiscussupcominglegislativepriorities.
QUOTEOFTHEDAY:
"ThewaythatHillaryClintonsbeentalkedaboutinthemediaissogendered
andrabidlysexistineverysingleportrayal,"saidLenaDunham,thestarof
"Girls"andaClintonsurrogate."Whetheritstheattacksonherpersonallifeor
theadjectivesthatareusedtodescribeherclothing,wehavetodoafull
reexamination.Ifwewereallowedtotalkaboutmalecandidateslikethat,Id
havea...fieldday.(Variety)
NEWSYOUCANUSEIFYOULIVEIND.C.:
--TheBostonCelticsclobberedtheWizards116-91.(JorgeCastillo)
--Theco-ownerofBethesda-basedTotalWine&More,DavidTrone,isseriously
thinkingaboutjoiningthecrowdedDemocraticprimaryforChrisVanHollens
Houseseat.(BillTurque)
--AmemberofTerryMcAuliffescabinetacceptedaninvitationfromthe
WashingtonRedskinstowatchagameinoneoftheirluxurysuites.Now
RepublicansarequestioningwhetherMcAuliffeandhisadministrationhaveviolatedoneof
hisexecutiveordersthatmembersofhiscabinetcannotacceptgiftsworthmorethan$100.
Theboxesarevaluedatbetween$18,000to$24,000.(LauraVozzella)
VIDEOSOFTHEDAY:
Thebullyisback.ChristiehectoredayounggirlwhoaskedhiminNewHampshirewhyhe
wasnotbackinNewJerseydealingwithrecoveryfromthestorm."It'salreadydone,"he
said."Idon'tknowwhatyouexpectmetodo.Youwantmetotogodowntherewithamop?"
ChristieChidesGirlfromNJWhoAsksWhyHe'sNotThere:"YouWantMetoGoDownTherewithaMop?"
Abettermomentforthegovernor,asheexplainswhyheisnotattackingTrump:
MarcoRubiolovesthrowingfootballs(inthelatestmade-to-go-viralvideofromIndependent
JournalReview):
HowToGetRevengeWithAFootballbyMarcoRubio
TianTianisstillenjoyingthesnowattheNationalZoo(clickforvideo):
Watch36hoursofSnowzillain30seconds,fromthetopofThePost'sbuilding:
Timelapse:Watch36hoursofSnowzilla'in30seconds
AtaSandersrally,awomanchokedupwhiledescribinghowshesurvivesonlessthan
$10,000ayear:
WomanatSandersrallyinIowachokesup
Hillary"walksitout."
HillaryWalksItOut.#news
WatchaclipfromBryceHarper'smovingspeechasheacceptedtheNLMVPAward,via
MLB.com,here.
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INTHISISSUE
*RussianmilitarysairoperationsshedlightondifficultiesinSyria
*KremlinshiftsstrategytolayingfoundationsforfifthcolumninUkraine

RussiasAirOperationsinSyriaExposeProblems

MoscowsmilitaryoperationsinUkraineandSyriaexposeafundamentaldistinctionin
approach:tryingtoextractitselffromtheformerwhileshowingnosignofapplyingthat
strategytothelatter.Officially,analliswellmessageispromulgatedbytheRussianpolitical-
militaryleadershipconcerningtheaircampaigninSyria.Perhapscarriedawaybytheeuphoria
ofconductingitsfirstout-of-areaoperationssinceAfghanistan,speculationhasarisenabout
theopeningofanewairbaseinSyria,closetotheTurkishborder,promptingdenialsfrom
officials(NezavisimoyeVoyennoyeObozreniye,January25).Themilitarymediaworks
tirelesslytoadvancetheideathattheaircampaignisworking,withoutreallyaddressing
underlyingissuessuchasstrategicaimsandobjectives,oracknowledgingthelimitedscopeof
thecloseairsupportfordisparategroundforcesgroupings(KrasnayaZvezda,January24).

Somebreachesintheratheroptimisticnarrativehaveappeared,andmaywellpresagethe
exposureofdeepersystemicproblems.ThefirststemsfromwhytheAerospaceForces
(VozdushnoKosmicheskikhSilVKS)anddefenseministry,despitePresidentVladimir
Putinsclaimthattheoperationistemporary,appeartoadoptalessthanhurriedapproach.
Infact,thisoriginatesinthetermsofthebilateralagreementthatlaidthebasisforRussian
operationsinSyria.TheRussiangovernmenttooktheunusualstepofreleasingthecontentof
theagreementreachedandsignedinDamascusonAugust26,2015.Accordingtothe
bilateralagreement,theVKScanusetheLatakiaairbaseindefinitelyandfreeofcharge.
Moscowcansendanyweapons,equipmentandmaterialsthatitdeemsnecessary,whileall
militarypersonnelenjoydiplomaticimmunity.TheagreementreachedinDamascusstipulates
thatRussiascontributiontoacampaignagainstterrorismandextremismisforanindefinite
period.Russiancommentatorsregardthetreatyasfairlystandard,anddownplaythe
indefiniteperiod,assimplyavoidingsettingdeadlinesfortheoperations(Gazeta,January
15).
WhiletheVKSmaybeinnohurrytoenditsoperationsinSyria,itisclearthatthe
interventionmarksashiftinRussianmilitarypolicyaswellasprovidinganewtestingground
foradvancedsystems.Acommentaryin NezavisimoyeVoyennoyeObozreniyenotedthat
theVKSoperationinSyriaisquiteunlikeRussiasuseofmilitaryforcesincetheendofthe
ColdWar.ItalsonotedthatsomeexpertshadlabelleditasthefirstRussianwarinAmerican
style,relyingonairpower,long-rangestrikeswithprecisionweapons,andwithminimalrisk
toitstroopsandforces.ThecommentaryfocusedonhowWesternanalystshaveadopteda
broadlypositiveinterpretationoftheRussianmilitaryoperation,whichaccordingtotheauthor
isrootedinthetendencytooverlycompareitwiththeFiveDayWarwithGeorgiainAugust
2008(NezavisimoyeVoyennoyeObozreniye,January15).
TurningtoconsiderWesterncriticismofRussiasinterventioninSyria,theauthorexplored
analysisbyDouglasBarry,aseniorresearcherattheLondon-basedInternationalInstitutefor
StrategicStudies.BarryacknowledgedtheuseoftheVKShigh-precisionweapons,butwent
ontoaddthatthescaleofaircraftprecisionweapons,reconnaissanceandtargeting
designationpossessedbytheVKSismuchnarrowerthaninWesternmilitaries.Barryalso
arguesthatRussiasuseofUAVshasnotreachedlevelsusedbytheUSanditsalliesin
Afghanistan,astheylackthenecessarylevelofintegrationofairborneandgroundhardware
systems(NezavisimoyeVoyennoyeObozreniye,January15).Consequently,theauthoragrees
withWesterncomparisonstotheGeorgiaWarinthatoperationsinSyriademonstratesome
advances,butconcludesthattheVKSisstillfarbehindtheUnitedStatesAirForce(USAF).
Russiasuseoflong-rangeaviationtofireair-launchedcruisemissileswaspresentedinthe
militarypressasastepforwardandademonstrationofadvancedcapabilities.However,
Major-GeneralAnatoliyKonovalov,theforcesdeputycommander,admittedtherewere
someproblems.DuringaninterviewwithEkhoMoskvyonDecember19,Konovalovwas
askedtosummarizetheperformanceoflong-rangeaviationinSyria.Konovalovsaid:There
areproblemswiththeaircraft.Inparticular,intheuseofair-launchedcruisemissiles.Weare
nowbusyworkingonthem.Ibelieveweshallgetridoftheproblemsthatarosewiththeuse
ofair-launchedcruisemissilesinthenearfuture(EkhoMoskvy,December19).
UndoubtedlyRussiasmilitaryoperationsinSyriaprovideatestinggroundforitsweapons
systemsandhardware.Althoughnottestedassuch,thedeploymentofsophisticatedair
defensesystemsinthetheaterofoperationshasraisedconcerninWashingtonandonthepart
ofNATO.InresponsetothedowningoftheRussianSu-24MbytheTurkishAirForcein
November2015,MoscowreportedlyorderedthedeploymentofS-300Fort,theship-based
versionoftheS-300airdefensesystem,alongwiththemoreadvancedS-400Triumf.NATO
Secretary-GeneralJensStoltenbergreactedtothesenewdeployments,statingthatitfitsa
patternofMoscowdeployingmodernweaponsinconflictzonesclosetotheAlliance.
Stoltenbergsaid,WehaveforalongtimeseenthatRussiaisdeployingadvancedweaponsin
Syria,intheeasternpartoftheMediterraneanandalongtheborderswithNATOcountriesin
Europe.Furthermore,hereferredtoRussianmilitaryactivityintheBalticandBlackseas,as
wellasintheCrimea,Allofthis,partofthesystem,whichindicatesthatRussiaisexpanding
capacitytointroduceano-flyzone.AndthisisoneofthereasonsthatNATOadapts,though
leavingunclearhowtheAllianceisadapting(NezavisimoyeVoyennoyeObozreniye,
December4,2015).
Ofcourse,notalltheproblemstheRussianmilitaryfacesinSyriaaresolelyofamilitary
naturetherearenumerouscontradictionsintheoperation,andunexplainedtwists.Alexander
Khramchikhin,deputyheadoftheMoscow-basedInstituteofPoliticalandMilitaryAnalysis,
referstotheideaofdirectsupportforSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assadandhisopponentsas
atypeofschizophrenia,thoughheacknowledgesthatMoscowseekstosupportthesworn
enemiesofTurkeyaspaybackfortheSu-24M(RBK,January13).

InanarticleexaminingthenewRussianNationalSecurityStrategy,AlexanderKonovalov,
presidentoftheInstituteforStrategicAssessments,suggeststhattheSyriacampaigncannot
reallybeexplainedbythestrategy.HeconcludesthatPutinfacesachoiceofthreeoptions:
(1)Useanyopportunitytoendthecampaignandsaveface(2)Continuewiththesame
intensityandresultsor,(3)Expandsignificantlytheoperationtoincludegroundforces
(Kommersant,January18).
--RogerMcDermott
MoscowShiftingfromDirectAggressiontoBuildingaFifthColumninUkraine
GivenMoscowsdesiretogetoutfromunderthesanctionsregimeandthealmostequal
desireofsomeWesterngovernmentstodeclarevictoryandliftit,theKremlinappearslikely
todojustenoughtoclaimthatithasfulfilledtheMinskAccordsandtheWesttoacceptthat
assufficienttoendtheUkrainiancrisis.Inthatevent,itisanearcertaintytheWestwillagain
focusonMoscowandlookawayfromUkraineeventhoughCrimeawillremainunder
Russianoccupation.Andasaresult,Ukrainewillbeleftlargelyonitsownagainstwhathas
alwaysbeenpartoftheKremlinsstrategyagainstit,andwhatseemscertaintobethecenter
ofthatstrategyinthefuture:theuseofaRussian-organizedfifthcolumntosubvertUkraine
andpreventitfrommakingthekindofreformsthatwillallowittointegrateintoEurope.
SuchastrategywillbeespeciallyusefultoMoscowbecauseitwillseektopromotetheidea
thatUkrainesproblemsareentirelyofUkrainesownmaking,andthattheWestshouldview
Kyivasapoorpartner,becausewhateverVladimirPutinpromises,hewilltakeback
wheneveritsuitshim,countingontheWestsshortmemoryandonitsdesiretohavegood
relationswithRussia.Further,thestrategyislikelytoworkespeciallywellintheshort-term
becauseoftheenormousproblemsKyivwillfaceinre-integratingtheDonbasproblemsthat
MoscowpropagandistsandtheirfriendsintheWestcancountontrumpetingtotheworldand
exploitingtoheightenotherregionaltensionsinUkraine(Segodnya.ua,January25).
WhatisperhapsmostremarkableisnotthatMoscowismakingthisshiftitisfullyconsistent
withRussiandoctrineandtheRussianpracticeofhybridwarbutratherthatitsagentsare
sobrazenastodeclarethatthisisexactlywhattheyintendtodo.Lastweek,Aleksandr
Zakharchenko,theleaderoftheDonetskseparatists,madeastatementthatdeservesthe
closestattention.OneUkrainiancommentator,YuryUvarov,hasdonesoandhisanalysis
pointstowhybothUkrainiansandWesterngovernmentsshouldbeconcerned(Qha.com.ua,
January20).
Typically,Uvarovsays,Zakharchenkosremarksaresooverthetopthattheycansafelybe
ignoredbutthistimearound,hiswordsappeartohavebeencraftedforhiminMoscowand
pointtoamajorchange.ThisisevidentasZakharchenkosaysthatwhateverhappensinthe
Donbas,protestmovementscouldbesalvationforUkraine.Hegoesontostate:The
presentauthoritiesofUkraineobviouslyareleadingthecountryintotheabyss.Alossof
sovereignty,defactoforeignrule,economicdegradation,andagrowthinpovertyand
unemploymentareallleadingUkrainetowardeconomiccollapseandpoliticalcatastrophe.
Andinthefinalanalysis,todisintegration.
ZakharchenkoaddsthatheandhisregimewillwelcometheappearanceinUkraineofsuch
movementsbutwillnottaketheleadinpromotingthem.Inaddition,hestates,Wevery
muchhopethattheUkrainianpeoplewillwakeupfromtheirapathyandwillbeabletobegin
throughproteststheprocessofchangingUkraineandreturningitintothefamilyofcivilized
peoplesfromtheBanderitedeadenditfindsitselfinnow.Ifthatdoesnthappen,everything
willbeverybad.IcanconfidentlysaythatUkrainemustbechangedorotherwiseitwill
disappear!

Thekeywordshere,Uvarovpointsout,arewillgreet,willnotshowinitiativeintothe
familyofcivilizedpeoplesordisappear.Translatedintothelanguageofpracticalpolitics,this
meansthatRussiawilldoeverythingtosupporttheriseofafifthcolumninUkraine,because
initsview,theonlywayforUkrainetoreturntothefamilyofcivilizednationsisunderthe
controlofRussia.Otherwise,itwilldisappear.AndthatmeansthatMoscowspuppetsin
Ukrainemustfulfilltheirmaintasktobroadentheirelectoralbase,somethingforwhich
thereareobjectivepreconditionsinUkraineitself.
TheKremlinsactionsarelogical,Uvarovsays.Buttheyarebasedonafundamental
mistake,anunderratingofthelevelofUkrainianpatriotism.Heconcludesbysayingtoday,
theUkrainiannationasneverbeforeisunitedandstrong,andaunitedpeoplecannotbe
defeated.
AtleastthreereasonsexistwhyUvarovisquitepossiblytoooptimistic,especiallyiftheWest
turnsitsattentionawayfromUkrainejustasMoscowisincreasingitsinvolvement.Firstofall,
theideaofafifthcolumnworksevenifitdoesntexist.Ifpeoplebegintosuspectthattheir
opponentsarepartofit,thatinandofitselfpoisonspoliticsandmakescooperationalmost
impossible.Second,UvarovistoodismissiveofRussiasopportunitiestostiruptroubleinthis
wayinthepoliticalsphere.Ukraineisunitedinsomeways,butitisalsodividedinmany
othersandRussiacanandwillexploitthis.
Andthird,Uvaroviswrongtolimittheideaofafifthcolumntopoliticalactivism.TheRussian
versionthistimearoundislikelytoincludebothRussian-organizedfalseflagoperationsto
discreditUkrainiannationalistsbypromotingextremistideas,andRussian-organizedbut
nominallyUkrainianparamilitaryunitsthatcanbedeployedtochallengeKyivsauthority(For
adiscussionofthesepossibilitiesandothers,seePaulW.Blackstocksclassicwork, The
StrategyofSubversion,Chicago,1964).
ThoseinclinedtoacceptaslegitimateMoscowsfulfillmentoftheMinskAccordsshould
reflectontheserealities.
--PaulGoble
Forward ReadLater
States.
disputes.
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From: Washingtonpost<email@e.washingtonpost.com>
Senttime: 01/26/201605:56:43AM
Subject: TheDaily202:HillarybetsherprosecantriumphoverBerniespoetry
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HillarybetsherprosecantriumphoverBerniespoetry
HillaryspeaksduringaDemocratictownhallinDesMoineslastnight.(PatrickT.Fallon/Bloomberg)
THEBIGIDEA:
HillaryClintonsaidlastnightthatshelovesthenewBernieSandersadsettoSimonand
Garfunkelsinging,TheyveallcometolookforAmerica.Thenshetriedtoofferareality
check.
Now,look,shesaidduringatownhallinDesMoines.Youcampaigninpoetry.You
governinprose.Andweneedalotmorepoetryinthiscampaign.ButIbelievethatImthe
betterpersontobetheDemocraticnominee,andthecommanderinchief.
Thecampaign-in-poetry,govern-in-prosetropewascoinedbythelateMarioCuomo,the
liberalNewYorkgovernor.WasitacoincidencethatCuomosson,Chris,wasmoderating
theeventforCNN?
ForClinton,itgavefreshlifetoamantrathatsheunsuccessfullytriedtouseasacudgel
againstthen-Sen.Obamain2008."Youcampaignwithpoetry,butyougovernwithprose,
sheoftensaid,downplayinghisrhetoricalabilities.
Inaninterviewpublishedearlieryesterday,PresidentObamadismissedcomparisonsof
Sanderstohimselforthiscampaignto2008."Idon'tthinkthat'strue,"ObamatoldPolitico.
HesaidthefactthatClintonknows"everypolicyinsideandoutcouldmakehermore
cautious,andhercampaignmoreprosethanpoetry."
Justlikelasttime,Clinton,lockedinaneck-and-neckraceinIowa,istryingtograbthe
mantleofchangelateinthegame.Lastnight,shehadamomentthatmighthelp.Afirst-time
caucus-goerwhosaidhesleaningtowardSanderstoldClintonthatmanyofhisfriendsfind
hertobedishonestandinauthentic.Ivebeenonthefrontlinesofchangeandprogress
sinceIwasyourage,shereplied.Ivetakenonthestatusquotimeandtimeagain.The
crowdlovedit.
Thetwonewsiestquotesfromthenight
Sandersonhisambitiousplans:"Yes,wewillraisetaxes.Yeswewill."
Clintononheremailserver:Imnotwillingtosayitwasanerrorinjudgmentbecause
nothingIdidwaswrong.
WHILEYOUWERESLEEPING:
--FederalofficesinD.C.willremainclosedtodayasthecityrecoversfromthe
snowstorm.Soiseverymajorschoolsystemintheregion.(Listhere.)
Metromostlyresumedrailserviceat5a.m.ButitcouldnotopentheSilverLine,and
atthelastminutethetransitagencysaidworkersareunabletorestoretrainserviceat
fourOrangeLinestationsthatwereexpectedtoreopen:Vienna,DunnLoring,West
FallsChurchandEastFallsChurch.Busservicewillbeexpandedoverthecourseof
today,althoughitisstillextremelylimited.(Thelatestontheclean-upeffortishere.)
Tragedy1:AsnowplowhitapedestrianwalkingdownthestreetinMontgomery
Countyabout8p.m.Themansinjuriesaredescribedassignificantbutnotlife
threatening.(MartinWeil)
Tragedy2:AfamilyinNewJerseywastryingtodigitswayoutwhenthechillbecame
toomuchtohandle.Themotherandherchildrenages1and3huddledinthe
carwiththeenginerunningtokeepwarm.Thekidsfathertriedtoclearthesnow
outside.Butthetailpipewascloggedwithsnow,pushingdeadlycarbonmonoxidegas
intothecar.Whenthefatherwenttocheckonthem,hecouldnotwakethemup.
(LindseyBever)
Today'sweather:Ourwarmingandmeltingtrendpicksupanothernotchas
temperaturessurgeaheadofanapproachingcoldfront,theCapitalWeatherGang
forecasts.Partlytomostlycloudyskieswithwarmermorningtemperaturesallowhighs
toreachthemid-to-upper40s.Aslightchanceofrainshowersshowupbylate
afternoonintoevening."
--Obamabannedsolitaryconfinementforjuvenilesinfederalprisons,sayingthe
practiceisoverusedandhasthepotentialfordevastatingpsychologicalconsequences.In
anop-edthatappearsintoday'sPost,thepresidentoutlinesaseriesofexecutiveactions
thatalsoprohibitfederalcorrectionsofficialsfrompunishingprisonerswhocommit"low-
levelinfractions"withsolitaryconfinement."Thenewrulesalsocallforexpandingtreatment
formentallyillprisoners,"JulietEilperinscoops."Whilethepresidentsreformsapply
broadlytotheroughly10,000federalinmatesservingtimeinsolitaryconfinement,thereare
onlyahandfulofjuvenileoffendersplacedinrestrictivehousingeachyear.Between
September2014andSeptember2015,federalauthoritieswerenotifiedofjust13juveniles
whowereputinsolitaryinitsprisons."Readtheop-edhere.
--Thecreatoroftheanti-PlannedParenthoodvideoswasindictedonfelony
charges."AHoustongrandjurythatwasinvestigatingaccusationsofcriminalmisconduct
againstPlannedParenthoodinsteadindictedtheleaderofananti-abortiongroupthat
recordedcovertvideosoftheorganizationsemployees,"DaniellePaquettereports."Harris
CountyDistrictAttorneyDevonAndersonsaidDavidDaleiden,thedirectoroftheCenterfor
MedicalProgress,facesafelonychargeoftamperingwithagovernmentalrecordanda
misdemeanorcountrelatedtobuyinghumantissue.SandraMerritt,oneofDaleidens
employees,wasalsoindictedonachargeoftamperingwithagovernmentalrecord.The
grandjuryclearedPlannedParenthoodGulfCoastofanywrongdoing.TexasGov.Greg
Abbottsaid,however,thattheinspectorgeneralofthestatesHealthandHumanServices
CommissionandtheTexasattorneygeneralsofficewouldcontinuetoinvestigatePlanned
Parenthoodsactions."
--OneweekbeforeIowa,abrandnewWashingtonPost/ABCNewspollshows
DonaldTrumpsolidifyinghisnationallead.RepublicansseeTrumpasthestrongest
candidateonmajorissuesandbyfarthemostelectableinthelargefieldofGOPhopefuls,
DanBalzandScottClementwrite.ThebusinessmogulleadsthenationalGOPfieldby16
points,at37percent,withTedCruzplacing2nd,at21percent.MarcoRubioisin3rdwith
11percent,followedbyBenCarson(7percent)andJebBush(5percent).Trumps
supportersaremorecommittedtohimthanthoseofhisrivals,with57percentsayingthey
willdefinitelyvoteforhim(comparedto34percentforalltheothercandidates).Inabig
shift,6of10RepublicansseeTrumpasmostlikelytowintheGOPnod,andTheDonald
leadsamongalldemographicgroups(includingwhiteevangelicals,thoughhisstrongest
supportcomesfromthosewithincomeunder$50,000).Trumpssuccessappearsbolstered
bythefindingthat9in10GOPerssaythecountryisseriouslyonthewrongtrack,and8in
10aredissatisfiedwiththefederalgovernment.Seethefullresultshere.
--TheresultsaremuchcloserinIowa,whereTrumpleadsCruzby2points(31to29
percent)amonglikelyRepublicancaucus-goers,accordingtonewnumbers
releasedthismorningbyQuinnipiacUniversity.Rubioplaces3rdwith13percentwith
noothercandidatebreaking7percent.TheresultsareprettymuchthesameastheQpolls
Jan.11survey.Only2percentareundecided,though39percentofthosewhopickeda
candidatemightchangetheirminds.
--TheDemocraticcontestintheHawkeyeStateisalsonarrowing.Clintonleads
Sandersby6points(48to42percent),downfrom14pointsinearlyDecember,according
toaFoxNewspollreleasedlastnight.Bernieisgainingamongmen(a2-pointDecember
edgegrewisa12-pointadvantagenow),whileHillaryislosinggroundamongthose45and
olderandthosewithcollegedegrees.Nationally,Clintonsnumbersarealsoslipping,with
49percentsupportingher(downfrom54percenttwoweeksago)comparedto37percent
forSanders(alsodown,from39percent).Undecidedsrosefrom2to10percent.TheFox
NewsPollsaysthattheClintonerosioncomespartiallyfromfallingsupportamongblack
voters,67percentofwhomnowbackher(comparedto78percenttwoweeksagoand84
percentinDecember).
WelcometoTheDaily202,withcontributionsfromMichaelSmith.Signuptoreceivethe
newsletter.Programmingnote:Wearelaunchinganewback-endsystemtoprepareand
publishthismorning.Itshouldnotimpactyouruserexperience.But,ifitdoes,pleaseflag
anyissuestopowerpost@washpost.com.Thankyouforreading.
GETSMARTFAST:
1. TheSupremeCourtruledthatteenagerssentencedtomandatorylifesentencesfor
murdermusthaveachancetoargueforrelease.Theruling,whichisretroactive,could
affectasmanyas1,500inmatesnationwide.(RobertBarnes)
2. SCOTUSalsoupheldaFederalEnergyRegulatoryCommissionrulethat
electricitygeneratorshate.The6-2decisionisawinforObamaandthe
environmentalists.(RobertBarnes)
3. NewHampshirehasdesignatedtwojudgestohearvoterandballotchallenges
duringtheFeb.9primary,whenanewvoterIDlawgoesintoeffect.(AP)
4. Atleast20werekilledwhenISISmilitantssetoffmultiplebombsatagovernment-run
securitycheckpointinHoms,Syria.(AP)
5. TheTalibanclaimedresponsibilityafteranAfghanpolicemanfatallyshot10ofhis
fellowofficersinKandaharbeforefleeing.(AP)
6. TheU.N.willconveneSyrianpeacetalksonFriday,butPresidentBasharal-
Assadsgovernmentandhisopponentswillnolongermeetface-to-face,whichwas
partoftheoriginalplan.(LizSly)
7. JohnKerry,meetingwithCambodianleaders,expressedconcernoverthe
governmentsrecordonhumanrightsandcorruption.Thevisitfocusedontradeand
investment.(CarolMorello)
8. Theownerofagunshopandhissonwerekilledduringashootoutwithtwo
customers,whowereinjuredinthegunfire,afteranargumentovera$25fee.(Sarah
Larimer)
9. Federalauthoritiesaresearchingforthreemenwhoescapedfromamaximum-
securityprisoninSouthernCalifornia.(PeterHolley)
10. AirbusisoneofseveralcompaniesalreadytryingtosellproductstoIrannowthat
economicsanctionshavebeenlifted.(NewYorkTimes)
11. TheUniversityofMissouriprofessorwhocalledfor"muscle"topushoutstudent
journaliststryingtocovercampusprotestswaschargedwithassault.(SusanSvrluga)
12. Indianaseconomylostasmuchas$60millionin2015whenseveralorganizations
decidednottohosteventsinIndianapolisbecauseofthestatescontroversialreligious
libertylaw.(AP)
13. ScientistsfoundevidenceofamasscareinKenya10,000yearsago,makingitthe
oldestactofhumanwarfare.(Reuters)
POWERPLAYERSINTHENEWS:
1. Sen.EdwardMarkey(D-Mass.)putaholdonPresidentObama'snomineetohead
theFDAbecausehewantstheagencytodomoreabouttheabuseofopioid
painkillers.(BradyDennis)
2. MartinShkreli,theex-biotechexecutivefacingfraudcharges,gotpermissionfroma
judgetotraveltoD.C.totestifyondrugpricingbeforetheHouseCommitteeon
OversightandGovernmentReformonFeb.4.(Bloomberg)
3. ScottWalkerlistedhisthree-bedroomWisconsinhousefor$338,000.Helivesinthe
governor'smanion,andtweetedthathe'slookingto"downsize"nowthatheandhis
wifeareemptynesters.(Politico)
4. ZephyrTeachout,theprotestcandidateagainstGov.AndrewCuomo(D-N.Y.)inthe
2014primary,isrunningtosucceedretiringRepublicanRep.Chris
Gibson.(PoughkeepsieJournal)
5. GeorgeH.W.Bushandhiswife,Barbara,calledNikkiHaleytocongratulateherfor
herStateoftheUnionresponse.(CharlestonPostandCourier)
6. BritishexplorerHenryWorsley,attemptingthefirstunassistedsolocrossingof
Antarctica,died71daysafterstartinghisjourney.Hewaswithin30milesofhis
target.(BrianMurphy)
MOREONTHEREPUBLICANRACE--
CRUZ,SLIPPING,ISTRYINGTOREGAINHISFOOTINGINIOWAAGAINSTTRUMP:
1. Hiscampaignspentyesterdaydescribinghimas"theunderdog."(RobertCostaand
PhilipRucker)
2. TheTexassenatorwarnedagroupofpastorsinaclosed-doormeetingthat,"IfDonald
winsIowa,herightnowhasasubstantialleadinNewHampshire.Ifhewentontowin
NewHampshireaswelltheresaverygoodchancehecouldbeunstoppableand
beournominee.AndthenextsevendaysinIowawilldeterminewhetherornotthat
happens."(KatieZezima)
3. TheCruzcampaignlaunchedanattackadagainstTrump's"NewYorkvalues."It
includesanoldclipofTrumpsayingthatheispro-choiceacrosstheboardandsaying
"howstupidarethepeopleofIowa."(Watchhere.)
4. ACruzSuperPAClaunchedthreeattackadsagainstTrumpaspartofa$2.5million
buy.Onealsohighlightshispastsupportforpartial-birthabortion,usingthesame
"MeetthePress"interviewasinthecampaign'sad.Anotherspotshowsaclipof
TrumppraisingCruzin2014.AthirdslamsTrumpforbackinguniversalhealthcare,or
"Trumpcare."
5. Aseparatepro-CruzPAClaunchedaradioadinIowatodefendhisethanolstance.
(DavidWeigel)
6. MarcoRubioattackedCruzonFoxNewsforhislawclientswhileinprivate
practice.WhenTedCruzhadtochooseasalawyer,hewaschoosingtorepresent
theChinese,"Rubiosaid."HerepresentedaChinesecompanythatstolesecretsand
aproductfromanAmericancompany.Soyoucan'tgoaroundsayingyou'retoughon
Chinabutthenhavealegalrecordinwhichyouwerepaidalotofmoneytodefendthe
ChinesewhohadtakenaproductawayfromanAmericanunjustly,unfairlyand
illegally.(Watchhere.)
THEDAILYTRUMP:
1. AtopaidetoSen.JeffSessions(R-Ala.),StephenMiller,willjoinTrumpscampaign
asaseniorpolicyadviser.(Costa)
2. TheformerSouthCarolinaRepublicanstaterepresentativewhocalledNikkiHaleya
raghead,JakeKnotts,endorsedTrump.(PhilipRucker)
3. TrumptauntedMichaelBloombergonCNN:"I'dbeathim.Iwouldlovehimtodoit
actually.Youknow,weusedtobefriends.Iguesswe'renotfriendsanymore."
4. DonaldRumsfeld,alongtimeadversaryofBush41buttheDefenseSecretaryto
Bush43,saidJebisnotconnectingbecausetherearesomepeoplethatare
uncomfortablewithadynasty.RumsfeldtoldtheTodayshowthatTrumphasa
touchedanerveinourcountry.
KASICHRISING,CHRISTIEFADINGINNEWHAMPSHIRE:
1. TheBostonGlobeendorsedKasich.TheBostonHeraldendorsedChristie.
2. Kasichisgoingall-inontheGraniteState.AfterThursday'sIowadebate,hewillnot
leaveNewHampshireuntiltheprimary.Anotherpollyesterday,fromFranklinPierce
University,puttheOhiogovernoraheadoftherestoftheestablishmentcontendersin
thestate,with12percent.(EdO'Keefe)
3. Christie'sfavorabilityhasdroppedfrom53%lastmonthto41%nowamongNew
HampshireRepublicans,perCNN:"Hehasbeencrucifiedoverthelastfewweeks,"
saidMikeDennehy,anunaffiliatedRepublicanoperativeinthestate."It'sashamefor
Christiebecausehereallydidhavemomentum."Dennehycamehomefromworkone
nighttotwocampaignmailersattackingChristie'srecord.Heshruggeditoff,walked
insideandflippedonhisPandora.Thefirstadtointerrupthisstreamingmusic:an
attackonChristie.Helatergrabbedhisremoteandflippedonthenews.Therewere
back-to-backadstargetingChristie.(CNN)
MOREONTHEDEMOCRATICRACE:
1. SouthCarolinaStateRep.JustinT.Bamberg,thelawyerforWalterScott's
family,switchedhissupportfromClintontoSanders.(VanessaWilliams)
2. BillwillflytoIowaonThursdayforafour-cityswing:Waverly,MountVernon,
WashingtonandOttumwa.(AbbyPhillip)
3. Hillarys2008campaignmanager,PattiSolisDoyle,consideredquittingherpost
asanaidetotheFirstLadyin1998duringtheMonicaLewinskyscandalbutresolved
tostay.Itwasas----ythingtodotoher.Buthedidit.Shedidn'tdoit,"SolisDoyle
saidinaninterviewwithDavidAxelrodforhispodcast.Ithought,shedidn'tdo
anything.Heisthejerkhere.AndwhywouldIpunishherbyquitting?Butwhathe
didwasabsolutelyunacceptableformanyoftheyoungwomenwhowereworkingon
thatstaff.(CNNPodcast)
4. AsuperPACfoundedbyGOPmegadonorJoeRicketts,EndingSpendingAction
Fund,islaunchinga$600,000TVbuyinIowathatcallsSanderstooliberal.The
spot,firstreportedbytheNewYorkTimes,isclearlyaimedathelpingboostSanders
overClinton,highlightinghissupportfortuition-freecollege,single-payerhealthcare
andtaxincreasesonthesuper-rich.
TooLiberal
WAPOHIGHLIGHTS:
ChrisChristiehandsoverhispentoSenatePresidentStephenSweeneyaftersigninglegislationturningover
controlofAtlanticCity'scasinodistricttothestate,intheunfinishedlobbyofthestalledRevelCasinoinFeb.
2011.(TomGralish/StaffPhotographer)
--ChristiefailedtoarrestAtlanticCity'sdelineinthelatestepisodeofourDecider
series.-->AtlanticCitysMr.Fix-It,byDavidFahrenthold:Christiechoseto
interveneaggressivelyinAtlanticCitystroubles,believingthatabettergovernoranda
littlemoregovernmentcouldovercomeitssteepeconomicdecline.Sofirst,Christiehad
thestatetakeoverhalfofthecity.Butthatwasntenough.Sohetriedanewcasino.But
thatwasntenough.SohetriedInternetbetting.Butthatwasntenough...Despite
Christiesefforts,fourofthe12casinosshutdown.About7,000jobswerelost.His
interventionwentsobadlythatthestatelegislatureisconsideringwhethertorevokeAtlantic
Cityslastbestlifeline,itsstate-sanctionedmonopolyongambling.Themayorafellow
Republican,exasperatedwithChristieisconsideringmunicipalbankruptcy.Christies
decisiontointerveneherereflectshisstyleofgoverning:Confident.Pugnacious.
Braggadocious.Andsometimesunwillingtoacknowledgethelimitsofhispower.
--"HowDavidPetraeusavoidedfelonychargesandpossibleprisontime,"byAdam
Goldman:"TheJusticeDepartmenthasneverdiscussedhowitreacheditsdecisionto
acceptapleaonthelessercharge.ButsixcurrentandformerU.S.officials,aswellas
othersfamiliarwiththecase,providedthefirstdetailedlookattheinternaldebatesand
wranglingwithPetraeusslawyersthattookplacebeforetheretiredfour-stargeneral
enteredhisguiltyplea...Aspartoftheagreement,Petraeusadmittedthatheimproperly
removedandretainedhighlysensitiveinformationineightpersonalnotebooksthathegave
to[Paula]Broadwell.TheJusticeDepartmentsaidtheinformation,ifdisclosed,couldhave
caused'exceptionallygravedamage.'Officialssaidthenotebookscontainedcodewordsfor
secretintelligenceprograms,theidentitiesofcovertofficers,andinformationaboutwar
strategyanddeliberativediscussionswiththeNationalSecurityCouncil.Theplea
agreementleftsomeintheJusticeDepartmentangry,particularlyattheFBI,andsome
agentshavearguedprivatelythatitwillhamperfutureeffortstosecureprisontermsinleak
cases.Butothersinthegovernmentdefendedthedealastheonlyviableconclusiontoa
caseinwhichasuccessfulprosecutiononthemoreseriouschargeswasfarfromcertain.
'Nobodywasgoingtobehappywiththeoutcome,'aformerJusticeDepartment
officialsaid.'Therewasnothingaboutthiscasethatwastypical.'"
--Boominghealthcarecostsandgrowingdeficitscreatebudgetheadachefor
Republicans,byKelseySnell:CongressionalRepublicanshavepromisedtoinclude
deepspendingcutsintheirupcomingbudgetproposalsandnewdatashowingrising
federalhealthcarecostsandaloomingdeficitincreasewilllikelyaddtoconservatives
hungerforbigfundingreductions.Federalhealthcarecostsareexpectedtojumpto$936
billionin2016,outpacingthe$882billionprojectedspendingonSocialSecurity,according
toareportreleasedMondaybytheCongressionalBudgetOffice.Republicanswilllikely
usethelatestdatafromCBOtojustifyproposingdeepspendingcutstomandatory
spendingprograms,butGOPleaderscouldfacesometoughquestionswhenitcomesto
howmuchtoprovideforthe12annualspendingbillsbothPaulRyanandMitchMcConnell
wanttomoveearlythisyear.Republicanleadersagreedlatelastyeartoadealthat
allowsfor$30billioninnewdiscretionaryspendinginfiscal2017,anagreementthat
continuestorankleconservatives,particularlyintheHouse.
ConcepcionPicciotto,theprotesterwhomaintainedapeacevigiloutsidetheWhite
Houseformorethanthreedecades,ademonstrationwidelyconsideredtobethe
longest-runningactofpoliticalprotestinU.S.history,diedyesterdayatahousing
facilityoperatedbyNStreetVillage,anonprofitthatsupportshomelesswomenin
Washington.Shewasbelievedtobe80.Shehadrecentlysufferedafall.Picciottoa
SpanishimmigrantknowntomanyasConnieorConchitawastheprimaryguardian
oftheanti-nuclear-proliferationvigilstationedalongPennsylvaniaAvenue.
Picciottoin2010(APPhoto/CharlesDharapak)
SOCIALMEDIASPEEDREAD:
ZIGNALVISUAL:Sandersgotmorementionsonlineduringlastnights
Democraticforum:Here'satotalmentionschartduringtheeventonCNN,viaour
analyticspartnersatZignalLabs.NotehowSandersmentionsspikeduringhistimewith
ChrisCuomo,whileClinton'smentionsdidaswell.TheSandersspikewasbiggerthanthe
Clintonbounce:
Bothcandidateswereabletodrivetheirowncoverageduringthetownhall,astheselistsof
theirtoptweetsillustrate:
Picturesoftheday:
BenCohen,aco-founderofBen&Jerry's,unveiledanewicecreamflavorinhonorof
Sanders.It'scalled"Bernie'sYearning":
Here'stheflavordescription:
NASAreleasedthisphotoofastarclusterknownasTrumpler14,callingit"oneofthe
highestconcetrationsofmassive,luminousstarsintheentireMilkyWay":
HouseMajorityLeaderKevinMcCarthy(R-Calif.)stoppedatRandy'sDonutsnearLos
AngelesonhiswaybackhometoBakersfield,Calif.:
NASA'sEarthObservatorypostedthisphotooftheD.C.regionfromspace:
OnesnowlovergotcreativeusingthewindontheNationalMall:
MarkZuckerbergpostedthisphotoinhonorofhisfirstdaybackatworkafterpaternity
leave.Heasked,"WhatshouldIwear?":
Tweetsoftheday:
Watchout--HughHewittmightgetcreativewithhisoutfitatthenextdebate:
Sen.ClaireMcCaskill(D-Mo.)wascalledforjuryduty:
McCaskilllive-tweetedthewholeprocess:
Herlive-tweetscaptivatedMSNBC'sRachelMaddow:
TrumpisnotlettinggooftheCruz-was-born-in-Canadaissue:
TheWeeklyStandard'sBillKristolpredictedaCruzwininIowa:
Rep.SteveKing(R-Iowa)ismakinghisownfinalpushforCruz:
LiberalcommentatorDavidSirotasaidhe'sobservinga"freakout"ontheleftoverSanders
vs.Clinton:
CarlyFiorina'sdeputycampaignmanagerwaspleasedtosnagaflightfromDCtoIowa:
JimGilmore,whatareyoutalkingabout?
Instagramsoftheday:
BarbraStreisandmetwithSurgeonGeneralVivekMurthytotalkabouttheriskofheart
diseaseforwomen:
KasichgotahaircutatNotSoPlainJane'sinManchester,N.H.:
Rep.ErikPaulsen(R-Minn.)senttwo-dozeneggsdownalugeanddidn'tbreakasingleone
(clickforvideo):
GOODREADSFROMELSEWHERE:
--NewYorkTimes,"Beforeriseasoutsider,TedCruzplayedinsiderolein2000
recount,"byMattFlegenheimer:"Mr.Cruzrarelyinvokesthe2000raceandrecount.He
haslargelydisavowedthecomparativelymoderateBushwingoftheRepublicanPartyin
pursuitofconservativeideologicalpurity.Yethisinitialventureintopresidentialpoliticsisby
turnsaconfirmationofandacomplicationfortheprofessedCruzimage.Theraceinstalled
Mr.CruzasacreatureoftheRepublicanestablishmentbutalsohelpedstarthisdivorce
fromit.Hemadeplentyofenemiesamongpartyoperatives,accordingtointerviewswith
overadozenformercolleagues,thoughforreasonsthathadlittletodowithideology....By
theendoffivebleary-eyedweeksofhangingchadsandbutterflyballots,Mr.Cruzhad
aggressivelyworkedhislegalconnections,chafedwhenhefeltsidelinedbypartyveterans
andevenintheviewofsomewhodisparagehimhelpedensureMr.Bushsvictoryin
thecourts,toapoint.Infact,formercolleaguessay,theTedCruzof2000isentirely
recognizableinthecandidatenowaspiringtothepresidencyhimself,fusinghyper-
intelligence,cracklingambitionandalaundrylistofimpeccableinsidercredentialsthathe
oncetickedoffmorereadily.'HethoughtheshouldgettheNo.1policyjobintheWhite
House,andhewasextremelyambitious,'saidAriFleischer,Mr.Bushsformerspokesman.
'InTedscasein2000,itbackfired.'"
--HillarygivesBuzzFeedaninterview,Clintonwantstotalktoyouaboutloveand
kindness,byRubyCramer:HereishowHillaryClintonseesherself:radically
consistent,motivatedbyacorephilosophyvoicednowthroughtwowordsrarely
associatedwithher.Loveandkindness.Ifthissoundsunlikely,sheknowsit.For50years,
shesstruggledtoexplainthevaluesthatmotivateherinpubliclife,asacandidate,asa
person.Theonetimeshereallytriedto,intheearly1990s,shewasbrutallymocked.Inthe
viewofsomeofherclosestaides,Clintonneverfullyrecoveredfromthecriticalbacklash.
AsClintonseesit,shesreallytalkingaboutashorthandforherpersonalandpolitical
beliefs,foralltheimpulsesthatshapewhatshedoesandhowshedoesit.Evenifno
oneviewsherthatway.Evenifshesneverbeenquiteabletoexplainit.Evenifher
earnesteffortstoconnectwithpeoplearehamperednotjustbyherimage,butbytheactual
barriersofpubliclife.Aftersomanyyears,howdoyouconvinceanationfullofpeoplewho
thinktheyknoweverythingaboutyouthattheydont?
--BostonGlobe,"TrumpandSandersleadthepackwithbigpromises,"byMatt
ViserandAnnieLinskey:"TrumpandSandershavevirtuallynothingincommonexcept
foroutsiderstatusandpie-in-the-skypolicypriorities,whichtheysellwithhighlycharged
emotionalappealstargeteddirectlyatvoterseconomicandsocialanxieties.Trumpsayshe
wouldbuildawallalongtheSouthernborder,andmakeMexicopayforit....Hewould
temporarilybanMuslimsfromenteringtheUnitedStates...HesayshewouldforceAppleto
buildallofitsproductsintheUnitedStates...InseemingdisregardofUSandglobaltrade
rules,hewantstoslapastiff,blankettariffonimportedChinesegoods....Sanders,theself-
describeddemocraticsocialist,hewsmorecloselytolegalrealitiesthanTrump,buthestill
campaignsonanaspirationalplatformofpoliticallongshots.Hevowstobreakupthebig
banks.Hewantstogiveeverystudenttheoptionofgoingtocollegewithoutpayingforit.
Heenvisionsahealthcaresysteminwhicheveryoneiscovered,includingundocumented
immigrants.Hewantstomandatethatemployerspayfornewparentstostayhomewith
theirbabiesforthreemonths.WhilehesaystheUnitedStatesshouldbemorelike
Denmark,heneglectstomentionthattheScandinaviancountryhasa55percentincome
taxrate.Theunrealisticnatureoftheirpromisesisastartlingfeatureofa2016campaign
fullofsurprises,ascandidateswhooncewouldhavebeendismissedasfringeplay
dominantroles."
--Politico,StateDept.watchdogtiedtoearlierClintonprobe,byJoshGerstein:A
lawyeroverseeinginvestigationsintoHillaryClintonsemailpracticeshasahistoryof
tanglingwiththeformerfirstladyspoliticaloperation:Hewasafederalprosecutorinvolved
inaprobethatled,adecadeago,totheunsuccessfulprosecutionofatopClinton
fundraisingaide.DavidSeidenowtheactingsenioradvisertotheStateDepartment
inspectorgeneralgatheredevidencethatsurfacedinthecaseagainstDavidRosen,the
nationalfinancedirectorofClintons2000Senatebid.SeidestietotheRosencaseis
fuelingconcernsamongClintonsalliesthatvariousinquiriesrelatingtoheruseofaprivate
emailserverarebeingskewedagainsther.However,theinspectorgeneralsofficedenies
anyconflictandsaysSeidesconnectiontotheearlierprosecutionwasaremoteone.
--Politico,"WhenCruzWantedtoBePartoftheEstablishment,byShane
GoldmacherandDanielLippman:"Fiveyearsago,asCruzplottedhispathtotheU.S.
Senate,theanti-establishmentcrusadersoughtaprivateaudiencewithandthebackingof
oneofthefacesofthemodernGOPestablishment:GeorgeW.Bush.Inanever-before-
reportedmeetinginBushsDallasoffice,Cruzbegantooutlinehis2012campaignplaybook
fortheformerpresidentCruzexplainedhowhewouldconsolidateconservatives
yearningforapoliticaloutsider,howhewouldoutflankthefront-runnerontheright,howhe
wouldproudlycarrythemantleoftheascendantteapartytovictoryoverentrenchedelites.
BushcutCruzoffbeforehecouldfinish.'Iguessyoudontwantmysupport,'Bush
interrupted.'Ted,whatthehelldoyouthinkIam?'"
HOTONTHELEFT HOTONTHERIGHT
ARepublicanstaterepresentative FoxNewssaidTrumpisafraidof
inTennesseesteppeddownas MegynKelly.FromPolitico:"Sooner
majoritywhipoverinappropriatetext orlaterDonaldTrump,evenifhes
messagestofemalecolleagues.The president,isgoingtohavetolearn
Tennesseansaysmanyofhis thathedoesntgettopickthe
colleaguesarenowcallingonhimto journalistswereverysurprised
resignaltogether. heswillingtoshowthatmuchfear
aboutbeingquestionedbyMegyn
Kelly,"anetworkspokespersonsaid.
DAYBOOK:
Sixdaysfromthecaucuses,it'sanIowaheavydayonthetrail.
HillaryspeaksinDecorahandCedarFalls,beforesheheadstoMarshalltown.
Trump,alsoinIowa,willbeinMarshalltownandIowaCitybeforeholdingarallyinIowa
City.
Sanders'bustourgoestoDesMoines.
CruzholdseventsinDesMoines,Albia,Centreville,Bloomfield,Ottumwa,Fairfield
andKeosauqua.
RubioisinPella,Oskaloosa,MarshalltownandWestDesMoines.
CarsoncampaignsinDesMoines.
KasichmakesstopsinNewBoston,RindgeandAmherst,N.H.
FiorinaheadstoColfax,IowaCityandMt.Pleasant.
SantorumcampaignsinWilliamsburg,Monticello,Dubuque,Anamosa,CedarRapidsand
Monroe,Iowa.
HuckabeegoestoAnkeny,Newton,PellaandIndianola.
AttheWhiteHouse:PresidentObamaandVicePresidentBidenwillmeetwithNancy
PelosiandHarryReidat11:15a.m.todiscussupcominglegislativepriorities.
QUOTEOFTHEDAY:
"ThewaythatHillaryClintonsbeentalkedaboutinthemediaissogendered
andrabidlysexistineverysingleportrayal,"saidLenaDunham,thestarof
"Girls"andaClintonsurrogate."Whetheritstheattacksonherpersonallifeor
theadjectivesthatareusedtodescribeherclothing,wehavetodoafull
reexamination.Ifwewereallowedtotalkaboutmalecandidateslikethat,Id
havea...fieldday.(Variety)
NEWSYOUCANUSEIFYOULIVEIND.C.:
--TheBostonCelticsclobberedtheWizards116-91.(JorgeCastillo)
--Theco-ownerofBethesda-basedTotalWine&More,DavidTrone,isseriously
thinkingaboutjoiningthecrowdedDemocraticprimaryforChrisVanHollens
Houseseat.(BillTurque)
--AmemberofTerryMcAuliffescabinetacceptedaninvitationfromthe
WashingtonRedskinstowatchagameinoneoftheirluxurysuites.Now
RepublicansarequestioningwhetherMcAuliffeandhisadministrationhaveviolatedoneof
hisexecutiveordersthatmembersofhiscabinetcannotacceptgiftsworthmorethan$100.
Theboxesarevaluedatbetween$18,000to$24,000.(LauraVozzella)
VIDEOSOFTHEDAY:
Thebullyisback.ChristiehectoredayounggirlwhoaskedhiminNewHampshirewhyhe
wasnotbackinNewJerseydealingwithrecoveryfromthestorm."It'salreadydone,"he
said."Idon'tknowwhatyouexpectmetodo.Youwantmetotogodowntherewithamop?"
ChristieChidesGirlfromNJWhoAsksWhyHe'sNotThere:"YouWantMetoGoDownTherewithaMop?"
Abettermomentforthegovernor,asheexplainswhyheisnotattackingTrump:
MarcoRubiolovesthrowingfootballs(inthelatestmade-to-go-viralvideofromIndependent
JournalReview):
HowToGetRevengeWithAFootballbyMarcoRubio
TianTianisstillenjoyingthesnowattheNationalZoo(clickforvideo):
Watch36hoursofSnowzillain30seconds,fromthetopofThePost'sbuilding:
Timelapse:Watch36hoursofSnowzilla'in30seconds
AtaSandersrally,awomanchokedupwhiledescribinghowshesurvivesonlessthan
$10,000ayear:
WomanatSandersrallyinIowachokesup
Hillary"walksitout."
HillaryWalksItOut.#news
WatchaclipfromBryceHarper'smovingspeechasheacceptedtheNLMVPAward,via
MLB.com,here.
YouarereceivingthisemailbecauseyousignedupfortheTheDaily202newsletterorwereregisteredonwashingtonpost.com.For
additionalfreenewslettersortomanageyournewsletters,clickhere.
Werespectyourprivacy.Ifyoubelievethatthisemailhasbeensenttoyouinerror,oryounolongerwishtoreceiveemailfrom
TheWashingtonPost,clickhere.Contactusforhelp.
2016TheWashingtonPost|1301KStNW,WashingtonDC20071
Senttime: 01/19/201601:43:33PM
FW:[ZJORDANOM][DIGESTOFDIGESTS][JD1-19-16]Fwd:RussianTRUCKERSoutsideofMoscow--they'restillthere![MUST
Subject: SEE]......[FromODDD]AndersA:7KeyReformsforUAin2016[MUSTREAD]...SteveBlInterviewonVOA[MUSTLISTEN]..........[WD]EU
...
Sent:Tuesday,January19,20161:34PM
Subject:Fwd:[ZJORDANOM][DIGESTOFDIGESTS][JD1-19-16]Fwd:RussianTRUCKERSoutsideofMoscow--they'restillthere!
[MUSTSEE]......[FromODDD]AndersA:7KeyReformsforUAin2016[MUSTREAD]...SteveBlInterviewonVOA[MUST
LISTEN]..........[WD]EU...
Date:Tue,Jan19,2016at4:29PM
Subject:[ZJORDANOM][DIGESTOFDIGESTS][JD1-19-16]Fwd:RussianTRUCKERSoutsideofMoscow--they'restill
there![MUSTSEE]......[FromODDD]AndersA:7KeyReformsforUAin2016[MUSTREAD]...SteveBlInterviewonVOA
[MUSTLISTEN]..........[WD]EUDEZINFORMREVIEW11[MUSTNOTE].....ANDABELATEDFPOvernightBrieffor1-
19-16[MaterialRelevanttoUA&Region]
Date:Tue,Jan19,2016at11:48AM
Subject:WonderingaboutthefateofthecampoftheRussianlong-haulTRUCKERSoutsideofMoscow--they'restill
there!(seelengthyVIDEO)
WonderingaboutthefateofthecampoftheRussianlong-haulTRUCKERSoutsideofMoscow--they'restill
URL:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/tv/topics/71484.html?print=1
Aspunishmenttheauthoritieshavebeendumpingallthesnowfromsurroundingdistrictsnexttothe
campfurtherisolatingtheprotesters(shownonvideo).
And:InRussiaSOCIALPROTESTShavebegunanew,http://echo.msk.ru/news/1696504-echo.html
InspiredbythesuccessfulprotestactionofPENSIONERSinKrasnodarandSochi,studentsin
NOVGORODarethreateningamajorstrikeovertheremovalordownsizingoftheirtransportation
benefits.
And:ForthedeclarationoftheNovgorodstudents,signedby1052supporters,see:Studencheskii
proezdnoivernut!VELIKIINOVGOROD,http://www.change.org/
And:StudentsinGreatNovgorodhavethreatenedtogooutontothestreets,
http://tvrain.ru/news/proezd-401936/
And:Russianoligarchs[Abramovich,Usmanov,Potaninandothers]lose$11bninjusttendaysduring
oilpricecrash,telegraph.co.uk,1/18
And:InU.S.money-launderingcase,shadesofRussianCORRUPTION,
http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27494612.html
And:OnconditionsintheLUHANSKbasements(controlledbytheseparatists)whereUkrainian
prisonersofwarhavebeentormentedanddied:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/71465.html?print=1
And:The[Russian]CommissionontheDefenseofStateSecretshasdeclinedtomakepublicthe
archivesoftheKGB,http://grani.ru/Politics/FSB/m.247829.html
Thearchivesofthesecretpolicefor1917-1991willbepreservedinsecret.Thesedocumentsconcerning
theworkofthechekistyremainactual.
And:DutchMPssuspectRUSSIANTRACEinreferendumonAssociationwithUkraine,unian.info,
1/19
And:StateDumaSpeaker[NARYSHKIN]suggestsEUsanctionKievoverMinskviolations,
themsocowtimes.com,1/19
And:HillaryCLINTON:newRESETpossibleinU.S.-Russianrelationship,themoscowtimes.com,
1/19
From:Deychak,Orest<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
Subject:Ukraine:USEKyivACKPNYTWoE[ANDERSASLUND"MUSTREAD':7KeyReformsforUAin2016]
To:"Deychak,Orest"<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
AtlanticCouncil
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/seven-key-reforms-for-ukraine-in-2016
JANUARY18,2016
SevenKeyReformsforUkrainein2016
BYANDERSSLUND
AfterOrthodoxChristmas,IspentafewdaysinKyiv.Itisquitestrikinghowthemoodhaschangedinapositivedirection.The
2016budgetandthemodifiedtaxcodewereadoptedonDecember24.Aftertwoweeksofwell-deservedrest,thereisasudden
realizationthatUkraineaccomplishedmanyimportanteconomicreformsin2015.Admittedly,manyUkrainiansrepeatthemantra
thatnoreformshavetakenplace,butthatisnottrue.Hundredsofsensiblereformlawshavebeenadoptedandtheirbreadthis
impressive.
Energyreformhasgreatlyreducedpricediscrepanciesandlimitedtheopportunitiesforcorruptarbitragebetweenstate-controlled
andfreeprices,whilesharplyreducingstatesubsidies.Thebudgethasbeenbroughtclosetobalance,andmajorinternational
financingtogetherwithdebtrestructuringwasaccomplished.Taxreformhasbeenadopted.Thebankingsystemisbeingcleaned
upasmorethanone-thirdofthebankshavebeenclosed.Afterasubstantialdevaluation,theexchangeratehasstabilizedand
internationalcurrencyreserveshaveincreasedconsiderably.Electronicprocurementhasbeenwidelyintroduced.Some
deregulationhasoccurred.
YetUkrainiansarerighttocomplain.Outputhasslumped,whilepriceshaveskyrocketedastheexchangeratehasplummeted.The
countryismuchpoorer.Thedominantconcernsarethatcorruptionhasnotdiminishedandpublicserviceshavenotimproved.
Nevertheless,thepreviousachievementslistedaboveindicatewhatremainstobedoneandwhatthecountry'sprioritiesshouldbe
in2016.
1.Themainpriorityisreformoftheprosecutionandcourts.Ukraineadoptedalawonprosecution,butProsecutorGeneralViktor
Shokinmanagedtotakecontrolofthereformprocess,minimizingthechange.Shokinhastogoandthereformoftheprosecution
needstostartanewundernewleadership.Similarly,thecountry's10,000judgesneedtobelustratedandnewjudgesappointedin
areformedcourtsystem.
2.Muchwasaccomplishedinenergyreformin2015,andin2016itshouldbecompleted.Gasandelectricitypricesshouldbe
unifiedatamarketlevelandsetunderthecontrolofanindependentregulatorfromApril1andagasandelectricitymarketshould
finallybeallowedtodevelop.Taxationofindependentoilandgasproducersmustbemadereasonable,andtheirregulationshould
besimplified.Socialsubsidiesaregiventothepoorestthirdofthepopulation,butnofurthersubsidiesshouldbegiventoenergy
companies.
3.Ukraine's1,833state-ownedcompaniesareadenofcorruption.Thevastmajority,1,600,areoflittlevaluejustextracting
subsidiesfromthestate.Theyshouldbesoldoffataregionallevelandthepaymentsgiventotheregionalgovernmentstomotivate
themtoafasterselloff.Thetop100stateenterprises,mainlyinenergyandtransportation,haverealvalueandtheirprivatization
shouldbeopentoforeignbidderswheneverpossible.Thesesalesmustbetransparentandcompetitiveaimingbothathighprices
andsoundrestructuring.About120armamentcompaniesbelongtoUkroboronpromandneedtobeconsideredaseparate
nationalsecuritymatter.Forsuchreasons,Russianentitiesneedtobeblockedfromparticipationinprivatizationandforeignentities
shouldhavetransparentultimatebeneficiaries.
4.Ukrainerequiresprofoundcivilservicereform,whichhasbeenlegislatedandwillcomeintoforceinthespring.Itisvitalthatitis
properlyimplemented.Salariesofcivilservantsmustberaisedsothattheycanliveontheirsalaries.Acleardivisionneedstobe
madebetweenpoliticalandcivilserviceappointments.Entryintothecivilserviceshouldtakeplacethroughcompetitiveexams.
Promotionsshouldbebasedonmerit,notseniority.Standardrulesagainstconflictsofinterestshouldbeintroduced.TheEuropean
UnionhasofferedsubstantialfinancialandtechnicalsupportandthisissomethingthatEUcountriesdowell.
Thevastadministrationofthecabinetofministersof700peoplethattraditionallyhasduplicatedandhamperedtheworkofthe
ministriesshouldbedismantledandreplacedwithalimitedapparatusforcoordination.Thesystemofrequiringtwentytothirty
signaturesoneachmajordecisionmustend,andministriesshouldobtainrealresponsibility.
5.Thebudgetdeficithasbeenbroughtundercontrolandthemostcorruptexpenditureshavebeeneliminated,butUkraineneeds
toreformthebudgetprocesstomakeitfullytransparent.ThisrequirestechnicalassistancefromaWesterncountrywithawell-
functioningbudgetsystemtorenderpublicexpendituresefficient.
6.Ukrainecarriedoutsomederegulationin2015,butfartoolittle.Manyinspectionagenciespersistandshouldbeclosed.
UkrainecouldrisesharplyontheWorldBank'sEaseofDoingBusinessIndex,ifitcarriedoutpossiblederegulation.
7.FormerMinisterofEducationDmytroTabachnikcausedchaosintheschoolsystem2010-13.Ukraineneedstoestablish
elementaryorderintheschoolorganizationandcurriculum.Polandoffersagoodexamplethatcouldbecopied.Thiswouldnot
costmuch,butitisamatterofgettingtheproperadministrationintoplace.
Manyotherissuesarealsoimportant,notablyimprovementofthehealthcaresystem,butsuchreformrequiresmoretime.Thetop
sixprioritiesaboveareallfocusedonreducingcorruption.Schoolreformiscomparativelyeasyandcanbedonewithinayear.
Ukrainehasreformedmuchin2015,butthegovernmentneedstokeepupthemomentumtoattainsoundeconomicgrowth.
AndersslundisaseniorfellowattheAtlanticCouncilandauthorof"Ukraine:WhatWentWrongandHowtoFixIt."
From:StephenBlank<traininblank@aol.com>
Subject:Fwd:thanks![ED:AnVerySubstantiveSteveBInterviewonVOA]
To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu,herpirch@aol.com
-----OriginalMessage-----
From:TetianaKharchenko<tkharchenko@voanews.com>
To:StephenBlank<traininblank@aol.com>
Sent:Tue,Jan19,20161:55pm
Subject:thanks!
HiStephen,
ThankyouagainforcomingtoourTVshow.HereisthelinkforthatinterviewwhichBohdanhasconductedwithyou.
http://ukrainian.voanews.com/content/stiven-blank-on-minsk/3148962.html
andfortheshow:
http://ukrainian.voanews.com/media/video/tv-programs-chastime/3147829.html?z=1684&zp=1
Best,
Tania.
Subject:DisinformationReview:IssueEleven[EastStratComTaskForce]
From:EastStratComTaskForce[mailto:stratcom-east=eeas.europa.eu@mail150.suw14.mcdlv.net]OnBehalfOfEastStratComTask
Force
Sent:January19,201611:07AM
To:=?utf-8?Q??=
Subject:DisinformationReview:IssueEleven
New#DisinfoReviewfromtheEEASEastStratComTaskForce Viewthisemailinyour
browser
DisinformationReview:IssueEleven
Dearcolleagues,
Thankyouverymuchforallyourreports.Wearealwayshappytoseenew
languageshere-thistimeItalian.Incaseyouknowaboutsomepeopleor
organisationswhocouldhelpuscovercountriesandlanguagesstillnotpresentin
ourReview,wewillbehappyifyouletusknow.
Asthisweekstrendwechosethedisinformation
targetedatGermany
Pro-KremlinmediausethenewsaboutsexualattacksduringNewYearsEveto
supportoneoftheirmostrepeatednarratives-showingthedecayoftheWestand
theproblemsfacedbyaEuropeanleader.
Alreadylastweek,wesawdisinformationaboutGermanpoliceandAngela
Merkelallegedlynotreactingtotheincident(http://eepurl.com/bMAv5P).This
week,youwillseestoriesabouttheseattacksbeingstagedbysecretservices,eg
theCIAortheirMuslimalliesandpayingtheactorswithheroinboughtfor
taxpayersmoney.OneofRussiasmainnewsprogrammes,"Vesticomparedthe
incidenttotheinfamousNightofLongKnives,orKristallnacht
(http://bit.ly/1QfuCZE).Aeronet.ctreportedthatifyouinsultrefugeesonGerman
FacebookorTwitter,youmightgotojail,whichisalongpreparedplantoban
freedomofspeechandtheNewYearsEveincidentsareonlyanexcuseforthat
(http://bit.ly/1OYZQDk).
Duringtheweekend,thepro-Kremlinmediacamewithastoryclaimingthata
RussiangirlhadbeenrapedinBerlinbymigrants.Inthetable,youwillseemany
linkstothisstoryinallthemostpopularRussianmedia.AlthoughBerlinpolice
deniedthisinformation(http://bit.ly/1Q8DMW4),manyofthestoriesremained
unchanged.
FurtherdisinformationaboutGermanauthoritieswasreportedbyCzechpro-
Kremlinoutlets.Inthetable,youwillseeacoupleofthemclaimingthatthe
GermangovernmentbuysCzechprostitutestosatisfytherefugees.These
prostitutesthenspreadtherefugeessexualdiseasesamongtheCzech
population,whichmight,itisclaimed,bearevengefortheCzechgovernment's
unwillingnesstoacceptrefugeesbytheGermangovernmentandAngelaMerkel.
Lastweek,weshowedhowpro-Kremlinmediainventstorieswrittenbywell-
knownWesternmediatomaketheirreportingmorecredible.Allofthestories
werefaked.Thisweek,wesawasimilarpattern-manystoriesinpro-Kremlin
outletsclaimedthatWesternmediapresageacatastropheforthewholeWest
afteranotheringeniousmovebyVladimirPutin,intendedtocounterthe
sanctionsagainsthiscountry.Infact,theseWesternmediaamountedtoone
articleonabloggingsite.Thestop-fakingsiteNoodleremoverreportsonthis
particularcasemorethoroughly(http://bit.ly/1niqi0M).
Here,weseeadifferentpattern-insteadofmakingproofsup,pro-Kremlinsites
pickanexistingelement,andpervertitintosomethingitisnot.Theverysame
happenedtoaphotographthatallegedlydepictedUkrainiannazis.Infact,there
wereRussianultranationalistsportrayedinthepicture(http://bit.ly/1StZoiM).
ThefalsenarrativeaboutnazisgoverningUkraineisrepeatedoneveryoccasion.
Thus,eventheUkrainianschoolreformsaimisinfactjustaplanhowtoturn
Ukrainianchildrentonazis.Thispieceofinvestigationwasreported
bynovorus.info:http://bit.ly/1V54xvH,andthanspreadbyCzechpro-Kremlin
outlets.
Thisweek,pro-KremlinoutletsalsoclaimthattheAmericansecretservice
managednotonlytostagetheCologneattacks(seeabove),butalsotohelpthe
BulgarianPrimeMinistertogetdrugsinLibyaandweaponstoISIS
(http://bit.ly/1TAAonG).In2009,theCIAalsokilledMichaelJackson
(http://bit.ly/1RONPDe).
Manythankstoallourcontributorsagain,andwearealwayslookingfornewones.
DOWNLOADDISINFORMATIONREVIEWISSUEELEVEN
Forcontributions,pleasee-mailjakub.kalensky@eeas.europa.eu
Whenyouadvertisethisproduct,pleaseusethislinkforautomatedsubscriptions.
Thankyouverymuchonceagain,andwearelookingforwardtoyournewreports,
EastStratCom
FollowusonTwitter@EUvsDisinfo

TheDisinformationReviewisacompilationofreportsreceivedfrommembersofthe
mythbustingnetwork.Themythbustingnetworkcomprisesofover450experts,
journalists,officials,NGOsandThinkTanksinover30countries.Pleasenotethat
opinionsandjudgementsexpressedheredonotrepresentofficialEUpositions.
From:ForeignPolicyInitiative<info@foreignpolicyi.org>
Subject:FPIOvernightBrief:January19,2016
To:Wolodymyr<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
FollowandSupportFPI
FPIOvernightBrief
January19,2016
TableofContents
MiddleEast/NorthAfrica,Asia,Security,Russia/Europe,Americas,Africa,ObamaAdministration,Events
Announcements TheMust-Reads
BesuretoencourageyourcolleaguestosignupfortheFPI NYT:US-Iranprisonerswappitscompassionagainstcosts
OvernightBrief.
BretStephens:NormalizingIran
Ifyousupportourmissionandwork,pleaseconsidermaking
SyriahurdleloomsafterUS-Irandeals
atax-deductibledonationtoFPItoday.
CarterseeksmorehelpagainstISISinParistrip
ISWispublishingregularupdatesonthesituationinIraqand
Syria,andAEI'sCriticalThreatsProjectisdoingsofor Formerwarplanners:ObamatoocautiousinbombingISIS
theYemenconflict.
DavidIgnatius:DefeatingISISwilltakedecades
WSJeditorial:AterrorstateinLibya
Gilinsky,Sokolski:TheotherdangersfromtheN.Korean
nuketest
WSJ+WaPoeditorialsandCohenonChineserepression
AsearchforanswersinKara-Murzasmysteriousillness
MiddleEast/NorthAfrica
Iran
Withinternationalsanctionslifted,theIraniangovernmentcalledonitsoilindustryMondaytoopenthetapsonproduction,amovethatcould
addtoaglobalglutofcrudethathassentpricesintoatailspin.NewYorkTimes
LiterallyhoursaftertheinkhaddriedontheaccordliftinginternationaleconomicsanctionsonIran,big-namecompaniesacrossEuropeandAsia
weresigningdeals,majorworldleaderswerebookingtrademissionstoTehran,idledoilfieldswerebeingorderedbackonline,andIran'sfinancial
authoritieshadprocessedapplicationsforsome1,000lettersofcreditfrombusinesseshopingtocutdealsinthenearfuture.WashingtonTimes
TheglowofgoodwillthatfollowedasurpriseprisonerswapandtheliftingofinternationalsanctionsonIran'snuclearprogramovertheweekend
isalreadybeingtemperedbythesomberrealizationthattheIslamicRepublicisnotlikelytochangecoursesignificantlyonotherpressing
conflictswiththeWest.LosAngelesTimes
ThedramaticreleaseoffiveAmericansimprisonedinIranovertheweekendhighlightedanunprecedentedlevelofdiplomaticcooperation
betweentwocountriesthathavelongbeenatodds,raisingthetantalizingpossibilityofaneweraofU.S.-Irandtente.ForeignPolicy
TwoIranianpoetswhofacelashingsandprisonsentenceshavefledIran,oneofthewriterssaidMonday,arareescapeforlocalartistsand
activistsensnaredinanongoingcrackdownonexpressioninthecountry.AssociatedPress
BretStephenswrites:IranwillbecomeanormalcountryonlywhenitceasestobeanIslamicRepublic.Inthemeantime,theonlyquestionis
howfarwearepreparedtoabaseourselvesinourquesttonormalizeit.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)
SimonChinandValerieLincywrite:Inthefirstroundofsanctionsrelief,theEuropeanUnion,UnitedStates,andUnitedNationsliftedthebulkof
itsnuclear-relatedsanctionsagainstIran,includingmostoftherestrictionsthathadbeenimposedagainstIransfinancial,transport,andenergy
sectors.(U.S.partieswillstillbeprohibitedfromdoingbusinesswithIranianentitiesbecauseoftheembargo.)IranWatch
FredFleitzwrites:HowdidIranreachthenucleardealsImplementationDay?BecausetheObamaadministrationriggedthegamebysettingthe
barsolowthatIraniancompliancewasassuredThatswhatledtoadisastrousagreementthatwillmaydoenormousdamagetointernational
securityfordecadestocome.FoxNews
Syria
TheprisonerexchangebetweentheU.S.andIran,coincidingwiththecompletionofthenucleardeal,markedmilestonesinPresidentBarack
Obamaspolicyofengagement,butonesthatwillbedifficulttorepeatasheturnstothenextchallenge:resolvingtheconflictinSyria.Wall
StreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)
Barelyamonthaftertheworldsmostpowerfulcountriesagreedtoanambitiousroadmaptoendthefive-year-oldwarinSyria,thereisstillno
agreementonwho,ifanyone,willshowupatthepeacetalksthataresupposedtobegininGenevanextMonday.NewYorkTimes
IntheMiddleEast,whereRussiahasengagedinitsownoperationsagainstIslamicStateinSyria,RussiaandtheU.S.,whichisleadingacoalition
againsttheIslamicStateinIraqandSyria,orISIS,alsoknownasISIL,aremakingeveryeffortnottocrosspathsintheskies,Gorencsaid.DOD
Buzz
TheSyrianObservatoryforHumanRightsgroupsaidscoresofSyriangovernmentforceshavebeenkilledinthreedaysoffightingwithIslamic
Stateintheeastofthecountry,wherethejihadistgrouphasattackedgovernment-heldareas.-Reuters
Syrianpeacetalksduenextweekarelookingincreasinglymootasastringofrecentbattlefieldvictoriesbygovernmenttroopshavebolstered
PresidentBasharAssad'shandandplungedtherebelsintodisarray.AssociatedPress
AthirdroundofaidwasdeliveredtobesiegedSyriantownsonMonday,althougharmedgroupspostponedonehumanitarianteam'saccess
sayingtheyneededmoretimetomakesecurityarrangements,theUnitedNationssaidinajointstatement.-Reuters
DaveedGartenstein-RossandNathanielBarrwrite:AlmosteveryaspectoftheObamaadministrationspolicytowardSyriahasbeenscrutinized,
lambastedorpraisedinrecentmonths,butoneofthemostsignificantfacets,theCIAscovertaidprogramtoSyrianrebels,haslargelyslipped
belowtheradar.Itistimethatwestartpayingattention,sincethisinitiativeisbenefitingtheveryjihadistgroupstheU.S.hasbeenfightingforthe
past15years.TheDailyBeast
Iraq
ThreeAmericanswhohavebeenmissinginIraqsinceFridaywereprobablykidnappedfromaBaghdadapartment,accordingtosecurityofficials
andlocalnewsreports.TheapartmentmayhavebeenthehomeofanIraqicolleaguewhoisalsobelievedtohavebeenabducted,theofficialsand
reportssaid.NewYorkTimes
AwaveofattacksagainstciviliansbytheIslamicStateandrivalShiitemilitiasinavolatileIraqiprovincehasraisedfearsaboutthepotentialfor
deadlysectarianviolence,eveninareaswheretheextremistmilitantswereofficiallydeclarederadicated.WashingtonPost
Atleast18,802civilianswerekilledandanother36,245werewoundedinIraqbetweenthestartof2014andOct.31oflastyearasIraqiforces
battledtheIslamicStategroup,accordingtoaU.N.reportreleasedTuesday.AssociatedPress
BaghdadandWashingtonhavetoutedRamadiasthefirstmajorsuccessforIraq'sU.S.-backedarmysinceitcollapsedinthefaceofIslamicState's
lightningadvanceacrossthecountry'snorthandwestinmid-2014.Butthescorched-earthbattlefieldtacticsusedbybothsidesmeantheprizeis
ashatteredruin.-Reuters
[C]learingthecityfrommilitantsandexplosivescouldtakeweeks.Andthediscoveryofmoreciviliansthanexpectedtrappedamongtheruins,
afterwhatthesurvivorssaywasadeliberateeffortbyfighterstousethemasshields,suggestsfuturebattlesagainstIslamicStatecouldbemore
complicated.-Reuters
KimberlyDozierreports:ThreeAmericancontractorswentmissinginBaghdadlateThursday,afterleavingtheheavilyfortifiedIraqimilitarybase
withouttheirsecuritydetail,armedonlywithpistols,accordingtoacontractorwithfirsthandknowledgeoftheincident.TheDailyBeast
Turkey
ATurkishsecurityforcecampaignagainstKurdishmilitantsinthesoutheasthasbeenlargelycompleted,PrimeMinisterAhmetDavutogluwas
reportedassayingonTuesday,asheoutlinedplanstomaintaintightercontrolinpartsoftheregion.-Reuters
LawyersforTurkishPresidentTayyipErdoganfiledalawsuitagainstthemainoppositionleaderonMondayforimplyingthatErdoganwasa
dictator,presidentialsourcesandtheoppositionpartysaid.-Reuters
ReturntoTop
Asia
CentralAsia
TheUzbekgovernment,lobbiedbyrightsgroupsandpressuredquietlybytheUnitedStatestofreeahigh-profilepoliticalprisoner,hasfinally
revealedasecret:Hediedfiveyearsago.NewYorkTimes
LackofagreementonwhowouldcontrolaseparateIndianSpecialForcesCommand(SFC)hasstymiedcreationoftheunitdespitethemilitary's
urgentdesireforone.MilitaryTimes
China
Chinasgrowthslowedfurtherlastyear,addingtothetroublingeconomicpicturethatisunsettlinginvestorsaroundtheworld.NewYorkTimes
WhenChinasgovernmentreportsTuesdayontheeconomysperformancelastyear,onecentralquestionwillhavealreadybeenanswered:
Growthslowedtoitsmostanemicpaceinaquartercentury.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)
Traditionally,collegesconducton-campusinterviewsorenlistalumnitohelp.ButwiththesurgeinapplicationsfromChina,collegesareunableto
keepupwiththevolumeofinterviewrequests.Tosiftthroughthefloodofapplicants,moreAmericaninstitutionshavesoughtthird-party
interviewswithprospectivestudents.NewYorkTimes
WheneverChinaseconomyshowssignsoffaltering,Beijingtypicallymovestostimulategrowthbyboostingspendingoninfrastructureand
thatnormallygivesthingsakickstart.Thistimearound,however,policymakershadresortedtothesamestrategyonlytofindthemselvesfacing
unusualheadwinds,asevidencedbyTuesdaysnewsthatChinaposteditsslowestgrowthinaquartercenturyin2015.WSJsChinaRealTime
ChinasgovernmenthaslaunchedanonlinedatabaseofTibetanlivingBuddhasaspartofwhatcriticsviewasabroaderstruggletocontrolthe
legacyoftheexiledDalaiLama.FinancialTimes
Chineseauthoritieswillprosecutetwoformerseniorofficials,includingaone-timevicemayorofShanghai,forcorruption,afterprobesfoundthey
abusedtheirpowerandtookbribes,therulingCommunistParty'santi-graftwatchdogsaidonTuesday.-Reuters
HongKong
GuiMinhai,theowneroftheHongKongpublisherMightyCurrentwhohasbeenmissingsinceOctober,appearedonChinesestatetelevisionlast
night(Jan.17)andmadeatearfulconfessionhehadkilleda20-year-oldcollegestudentwhiledrunkdrivinginNingbo,acityinsoutheastern
Zhejiangprovince,inDecemberof2003.Guisfriendsandfamilyhavetheirdoubts,andsayhisconfessionlooksscriptedandtheystillbelievehe
wasabducted.-Quartz
HongKongpolicehaveconfirmedthatanotherofagroupoffivemissingbooksellerswhosoldworkscriticalofBeijingisinmainlandChina,justa
dayafterhiscolleaguewasparadedonChinesestateTVconfessingtoa12-year-olddrink-drivingoffenceFinancialTimes
ASwedishbooksellerwhosemysteriousdisappearancesparkedfearshemayhavebeenabductedbyChineseagentssaidhehadvoluntarily
turnedhimselfintotheauthoritiesoverafataldrink-drivingoffensemorethanadecadeago.-Reuters
OneofHongKong'sstaunchestpro-Beijinglawmakerssaidabookseller'stearfulconfessiononstatetelevisiontoahit-and-runaccidentmore
thanadecadeagoinChinaisunlikelytoappeasepublicconcernsthathemayhavebeenabducted.-Reuters
Editorial:Thechargeagainstthelawyers,subvertingstatepower,isabsurd.Thelawyersweresimplyadvisingclientshowtodefendthemselves
underChinaslawstheirintentionswerepragmaticandrelativelymodest.Butitisnowcleartheytouchedaverysensitivenerve,andChinas
rulersreactedharshly.Thegrayzoneisbeingturnedintoatwilightzoneoffear,amessagetoanyonethattheycanbetakenawayinthemiddleof
thenight.WashingtonPost
Editorial:Whenreportsofthemissingbooksellerssurfaced,somespeculatedthatrogueChineseagentscouldhavemountedasnatch-and-grab
campaignwithoutapprovalfromhigher-upsinBeijing.Mr.Guistelevisedconfessionsuggestsofficialknowledgeandcomplicity.Thecases
representanescalationofChinasassaultsonjournalism,theautonomyofHongKongandtherightsofoverseasChinesewhoarecitizensof
othersovereignnations.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)
JeromeCohenwrites:IfthecurrentChinesepresidentweretohonorhisfatherspolicy,Chinasprospectsfortransitioningfromdictatorshipto
democracywouldbebrighter.SotoowouldbethefutureofChinaspubliclawyers.Ihopethattheywillcontinuethestruggle,evenwithonearm
tiedbehindthem.Itwouldbetragic,forbothlawyersandChinesesociety,iftheyweretobecomemeretechnicalpractitioners.WallStreet
Journal(subscriptionrequired)
Taiwan
NodogmaismoreimportanttoBeijingthanOneChina,theconceptthatTaiwanisapartofasingleChinesenationjusttemporarilyestranged.
Americaandmuchoftherestoftheworldacquiescetothatposition,denyingtherealitythatTaiwanhassetitscourseasanindependentstate.
Lastweekendsvote,inwhichtheTaiwaneseelectorateoverwhelmingendorsedapartythatrejectsBeijingsOneChinaformula,confirmedthe
directioninthemostemphaticwaytodate.ThatnotonlyputsChinainabind,buttheU.S.too.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)
TheelectionofTsaiIng-wenaspresidentofTaiwanwasmetinChinaonMondaywithsparseandlargelycriticalcomment,suggestingbothalack
ofinteresttowardacandidatewhosepartysnativistleaningsmanyordinaryChinesedonotunderstandandcensorshipinthenewsmediaand
onlineforumsaboutanoutcomethattheCommunistPartyhadnotwishedtosee.NewYorkTimes
PatrickCroninandPhoebeBenichwrite:ThesewindsofchangeoriginatinginTaiwanarealsocertaintobuffetthenextU.S.president.Since
normalizingrelationswithChinaandthepassageoftheTaiwanRelationsActin1979,repeatedadministrationshavemaintainedahighdegreeof
ambiguityregardingsupportforTaiwan.AreenergizedTaiwaneseelectoratewilltestthelongevityofAmericascurrentstrategicambiguityabout
theactualextentofitscommitmenttoTaiwanForeignPolicy
NorthKorea
[E]venasnewsanctionsloom,NorthKoreasbiggesttesttodatehasthrownintostarkreliefthefailureofexistingonestohaltitsnuclear
progressandwithChinastillunwillingtocastitstreatyallyintoeconomicruin,analystsseelittlehopethatthenextroundofmeasureswill
achievethatgoal.FinancialTimes
NorthKoreanleaderKimJongUn'srecentnuclearweapontestwasdesignedtoboosthisdomesticlegitimacyaheadofararerulingparty
conferenceinMaythatcouldformalizemarket-basedeconomicexperimentsintheisolatedcountry,analystssay.-Reuters
VictorGilinskyandHenrySokolskiwrite:ThefirstthingtosayaboutNorthKoreasJan.6nucleartestisthat,despitethepronouncementsof
instantexperts,weknowalmostnothingaboutitstechnicalcharacteristics.Eventherelationoftheseismicsignaltotheactualsizeofthe
explosionisuncertain.Buttherearesomehintsaboutthetestssignificanceforproliferationthatthepress,initseagernesstodismissNorth
Koreasclaimthatitdetonatedahydrogenweapon,seemstohavemissed.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)
SoutheastAsia
Theoutcomeofthesecongressesisusuallysettledmonthsinadvance,butaprotractedspatbetweenfactionsloyaltoMr.DungandMr.Trong
hasresultedinlast-minutemaneuvering.WhoevercomesoutontopcoulddeterminethefutureofVietnamscarefullycalibratedstrategicbalance
betweenChina,itsideologicalallyandmaintradingpartner,andtheUnitedStates,whichthepartyeliteincreasinglyconsidersanimportant
counterweightagainstgrowingChineseinfluenceintheregion.NewYorkTimes
ElectionbattlesinthePhilippinesarentjustfoughtoverwhogetsthemostvotes,butalsowhogetstoparticipate,withoneoftheleading
candidatesforthisyearspresidentialrace,GracePoe,waitingfortheSupremeCourttodecidewhethersheiseligibletoleadthecountry.Wall
MyanmararmychiefMinAungHlaingnominatedmilitaryofficers,whoholdaquarterofseatsinparliament,totheirposts,statemediasaidon
Tuesday,anotherstepbythearmyinwhathassofarsurprisedmanyasaremarkablypeacefultransition.-Reuters
ChinaaccusedthePhilippinesonTuesdayofdeliberatelytryingtoscarepeoplebysayingChinahadwarnedasmallcivilianplanecarrying
PhilippineofficialsitwastrespassingastheyinspectedanislandinthedisputedSouthChinaSea.-Reuters
Australia
PresidentBarackObamaiswelcominghisfirstforeignleaderofthenewyear,AustralianPrimeMinisterMalcolmTurnbull,fortalksthatwillcover
theIslamicStatemilitantgroupanda12-nationPacificRimtradeagreementthatincludestheircountries.AssociatedPress
ReturntoTop
Security
Cybersecurity
Cyberattackswagedagainstthenation'scriticalmanufacturingsectornearlydoubledinfiscalyear2015,governmentexpertssaidinanewreport.
WashingtonTimes
ReturntoTop
Russia/Europe
Ukraine
WhenafriendinKyivcalledIsraeli-AmericanfilmmakerEvgenyAfineevskyinNovember2013andconvincedhimtodropeverythingandtakehis
camerastoUkrainebecause"somethingwashappening"there,hehadnoideawhathewasgettinghimselfinto,letalonethatitwouldleadtoan
Oscarnomination.RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty
TheEuropeanUnionpressedUkraineauthoritiesonMondaytoovercomepoliticalfeudingandimplementpromisedreformsasitlookstoshore
upthecountry'sdemocraticandeconomiccredentials.-Reuters
AndersAslundwrites:Ukrainiansarerighttocomplain.Outputhasslumped,whilepriceshaveskyrocketedastheexchangeratehasplummeted.
Thecountryismuchpoorer.Thedominantconcernsarethatcorruptionhasnotdiminishedandpublicserviceshavenotimproved.Nevertheless,
thepreviousachievementslistedaboveindicatewhatremainstobedoneandwhatthecountry'sprioritiesshouldbein2016.AtlanticCouncil
Russia
Kara-MurzaalsobelieveshispoisoningmayhavebeenanactofrevengeforhislobbyingforU.S.sanctionsagainstRussianofficialsunderthe
MagnitskyAct,namedforSergeiMagnitsky,awhistleblowingRussianlawyerwhodiedinaMoscowjailin2009afteraccusingofficialsoflarge-
scalefraud.RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty
TheRussianStateDumaCommitteeonConstitutionalLegislationandState-Buildinghasdeclinedtoendorseacontroversialdraftbillthatwould
introducefinesandarrestsforpeoplewhopubliclyexpresstheirhomosexuality.RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty
Russiasrublecurrency,batteredbyfallingglobaloilprices,hasdroppedtoitslowestvalueoncurrencyexchangemarketsinmorethanayear.
RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty
France
ThegroupsformationunderscoreshowtheU.S.andFrenchhaveexpandedtheirrelationshipastheU.S.-ledcoalitionagainsttheIslamicState
preparesforanexpansionofthewar.OnTuesday,Carterwillembarkonamulti-daytriptoEuropethatincludesmeetingsinPariswithdefense
ministersfromthecountriesprovidingsomeofthemostsignificantcontributionstothemilitarycampaign:France,Australia,Germany,Italy,the
NetherlandsandBritainWashingtonPostsCheckpoint
MorethanayearaftertheterrorattacksonCharlieHebdoandaPariskoshersupermarket,thevictimsrelativesarestilldemandinganswerson
whetherorhowFrancesgovernmentandsecurityforcesfailed.-Politico
Germany
JosefJoffewrites:Youcanthaveopenbordersandamunificentwelfarestate.Somethinghastogive.SinceevenMightyMerkelcannotoverturn
ancientdispensations,shewillinevitablyslipintoNo,wecantandcloseborders,astheSwedesandDaneshavedone.High-mindedness
stopsattheballotbox.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)
JohnVinocurwrites:Thechancellornowfacesasocietythatisgaggingontherealizationthatotherone-timepillarsofnationalprobityhave
crackedfortheworldtoseeDeutscheBankwithits$2.5billionfinebyU.S.regulatorslastyearforraterigging,andVolkswagen,facingmassive
lawsuitsafteracknowledgingitfakeditscarsemission-controlcapabilities.Byitsownstandards,Germanyisreeling.AngelaMerkelnolonger
hasthecountryfullyinhergrasp.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)
Europe
TheEuropeanUnionandtheU.S.areracingtomeetadeadlineonanewcommercialdata-sharingaccordtoreplaceonestruckdownbytheEU
lastyearbecauseofconcernsoverAmericansurveillancepractices.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)
AspresidentoftheEuropeanCouncilthegrouprepresentingtheEuropeanUnionsoften-clashing28leadersDonaldTuskisforever
promotingabalancebetweennationalsovereigntyononehandandcommonvaluesandgoalsontheother.OnMonday,hischallengewas
especiallypersonal.NewYorkTimes
[T]hedozensofmembersoftheBritishParliamentwhospentanextraordinarythreehoursMondaydebatingaboutthefront-runnerforthe
RepublicannominationforU.S.presidentdidnotbanDonaldTrump.WashingtonPost
NATO
PolandwantsNATOtoagreetodeploy'substantial'numbersofforcesandequipmentincentralandeasternEuropetoensuretheregion'ssecurity
inthefaceofamoreaggressiveRussia,PresidentAndrzejDudasaidonMonday.-Reuters
ReturntoTop
Americas
LatinAmerica
Justweeksbeforelawmakerswillconsiderherfate,BrazilianPresidentDilmaRousseffisdesperatelytryingtodemonstratethatsheisstillin
chargeofSouthAmerica'smostpopulousnation.WashingtonTimes
PresidentDilmaRousseff'sopponentswithinhermaincoalitionpartner,thefractiousBrazilianDemocraticMovementParty(PMDB),arelosing
hopethattheycanimpeachtheleftistleaderandreplaceherwiththeirman,VicePresidentMichelTemer.-Reuters
AnagreementtobuildoiltankersinIranforVenezuelahasbeenleftinlimboyearsafteritwasannouncedasWesternsanctionsplus
disagreementsoverpaymentsanddeliverytermstooktheirtoll,sourcesfamiliarwiththemattersay.-Reuters
TobyDershowitzandJosephHumirewrite:Thepost-dealinfluxofinternationalinvestmenttoIranwillsurelychallengeMacriseffortstocurb
Tehransinfluenceathome.Sofar,hehasshownheisuptothistask.ItisimperativethattheU.S.andotherfriendlygovernmentshelpthenew
Argentinepresidentasheseekstorighthiscountrysjudicialintegrity,aneffortforwhichAlbertoNismangavehislifetoprotect.TheHill
ReturntoTop
TheFPIOvernightBriefisadailyproductoftheForeignPolicyInitiative,whichseekstopromoteanactiveU.S.foreignpolicycommittedto
robustsupportfordemocraticallies,humanrights,astrongAmericanmilitaryequippedtomeetthechallengesofthe21stcentury,and
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TheForeignPolicyInitiative Telephone:(202)296-3322
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Senttime: 01/23/201601:49:55PM
FW:[ACUPOFHOTCOCOA&SOMEGOODREADINGMATERIAL][JDDD1-23]Fwd:StrongpieceonRussia'sswellingPROTESTmovement:nytimes.com,1/23David
Subject:
Satter/WSJ:RUstateofMURDERunderPutin.....[WD]Two'MustReads'fromPaulG'sPen:WaterGetting...
Sent:Saturday,January23,201612:54PM
Subject:Fwd:[ACUPOFHOTCOCOA&SOMEGOODREADINGMATERIAL][JDDD1-23]Fwd:StrongpieceonRussia'sswellingPROTESTmovement:nytimes.com,
1/23DavidSatter/WSJ:RUstateofMURDERunderPutin.....[WD]Two'MustReads'fromPaulG'sPen:WaterGetting...
Date:Sat,Jan23,2016at3:52PM
Subject:[ACUPOFHOTCOCOA&SOMEGOODREADINGMATERIAL][JDDD1-23]Fwd:StrongpieceonRussia'sswellingPROTEST
movement:nytimes.com,1/23DavidSatter/WSJ:RUstateofMURDERunderPutin.....[WD]Two'MustReads'fromPaulG'sPen:WaterGettingWarmer
forFrogIfPutinInvadestheBaltics......[WL]Glick/JP:ISRAELHASRUSSIAINITSFACEANDWE'RENOTTHEREPutin'sBookofQuotes
........FINALLY:Fwd:SNOWSTORM-2016
Subject:StrongpieceonRussia'sswellingPROTESTmovement:"RussianANXIETYswellsasoilpricescollapse,"nytimes.com,1/23
StrongpieceonRussia'sswellingPROTESTmovement:"RussianANXIETYswellsasoilpricescollapse,"nytimes.com,1/23
And:FromFridaysWSJDavidSatter,TheRussianstateofMURDERunderPutin,WSJ,1/22,op-ed
[ED:SEEBELOW]
And:FromtodaysWSJHolmanJenkins,IstheWestsPUTINSILENCEover?WSJ,1/23,Op-ed
And:LitvinenkocaseexposesCORBYN[BritishLaborPartyleader],http://www.politco.eu/article/alexander-litvinenko-
assassinatilon-vladimir-putin-jeremy-corbyn/
And:MarkGALEOTTI,WhoneedsassassinswhenyouvegotHACKERS?nytimes.com,1/23.Op-ed
And:This[murderofLitvinenko]couldhaveoccurredonlywithPutins
approval,http://www.svoboda.org/articleprintview/27506685.html
ExtensivecommentsbyformerKGBoperativeYuriiShvets.
And:PutinsinvitationtoEUROPEANJEWSsparksmixedreceptions,http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27499866.html

Putin:Theycancometous.TheylefttheSovietUnion.Letthemreturn.
And:U.S.,RussiasaidtonearcompromisetoUNLOCKSyriapeacetalks,Bloomberg.com,1/23
SATTERPIECE:
TheRussianStateofMurderUnderPutin
LettheLitvinenkomurderinquiryinspiremoreinvestigationsoftheKremlinsuglytactics.
ENLARGE
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinattheKremlininMoscow,Jan.21. PHOTO:ZUMAPRESS
By
DAVIDSATTER
Jan.21,20166:33p.m.ET
36COMMENTS
OnThursday,aBritishinquiryintothepoloniumpoisoningdeathofformerRussianagentAlexanderLitvinenkoin2006implicatedRussian
PresidentVladimirPutininthemurder.TheannouncementwasthefirststeptowardjusticenotjustforLitvinenkobutforallofthevictimsofRussianstate
terror.
TheevidencethatLitvinenkowaskilledbytheRussianregimewasoverwhelmingfromthebeginning.ButtheinquirysconclusionthatMr.Putinprobably
approvedthemurderbeforehandisthefirstinstanceofanofficialbodyconnectingMr.PutinpersonallytothemurderofamemberoftheRussian
opposition.ThefindingwasmadepossiblebecausethecrimewascommittednotinRussiabutinEngland,anditwastheBritishauthoritiesnottheRussians
whoinvestigated.
ItisnowimperativenotonlyfortheWestbutforthefutureofRussiathattheLitvinenkoinquirysetaprecedentfortheobjectiveinternationalreviewofthe
casesofpoliticalterrorisminRussia.TheseincludethebloodysiegesatMoscowsDubrovkatheaterin2002andataschoolinBeslanin2004,the
assassinationsofjournalistsandoppositionleadersand,aboveall,thedeadly1999apartmentbombingsthathelpedbringMr.Putintopower.
IntheLitvinenkocase,theallegedassassins,AndreiLugovoiandDmitryKovtun,wereaccusedbytheBritishinquiryofslippingpolonium-210into
Litvinenkostea.AradioactivetrailwasleftalloverLondon.TracesofpoloniumwerefoundinMr.Lugovoishotelroom,atasushirestaurantwhere
Litvinenkodinedwiththetwomen,andontheseatoccupiedbyMr.LugovoionaBritishAirlinesflightfromMoscowtoLondon.
BritishprosecutorswantedtobringacaseagainstMessrs.LugovoiandKovtunafterthemurder,butthatprovedimpossiblebecauseofRussian
obstruction.WhenBritainaskedtointerviewMr.Lugovoi,aformerKGBbodyguard,andMr.Kovtun,aformerSovietarmyofficer,theKremlinsaidit
wasconductingitsowninvestigation.SixmonthsafterLitvinenkosdeath,theBritishprosecutorrequestedMr.Lugovoisextradition.Mr.Putinrefused
thoughRussiahadsignedtheCouncilofEuropeExtraditionConventionin2001.InDecember2007,Mr.LugovoiwaselectedtotheStateDuma,orlower
houseofparliament,givinghimimmunityfromprosecution.
TheLitvinenkomurderwasadramaticexampleoftheRussianregimescriminalmethods,butitwasfarfromunique.Provocationandpolitical
assassinationsarethehallmarkofpost-SovietRussiaandledtothePutindictatorship.
ThefirstunexaminedepisodewasthemassacreattheOstankinotelevisiontowerin1993,inthewakeofBorisYeltsinsillegalorderabolishingtheRussian
parliament.Thousandsofunarmedpro-parliamentprotestersnearthetowerwerefiredonwithautomaticweapons,leaving46deadand124wounded.
Yeltsinthenpersuadedthearmytoattacktheparliamentbuildingand,inthewakeofmilitaryvictory,introducedasuper-presidencywithnear-dictatorial
powers.
Withnocheckonexecutivepower,YeltsinlaunchedthefirstChechenwarin1994andfacilitatedthewidespreadcorruptionthatdroveRussiaintopoverty
andhardship.
ThesecondunexaminedepisodewastheseriesofRussianapartmentbombingsinthreecitiesin1999,claimingmorethan300lives.Thebombingswere
usedtojustifyasecondChechenwar,directedbyMr.Putin,whowasthenprimeminister,andhelpedhimwinthepresidencyin2000.Hisfirstofficialact
wastopardonYeltsinforanycrimescommittedinoffice.AnunexplodedbombwasdiscoveredinthebasementofabuildinginRyazan.Thepersonswho
planteditturnedouttobenotChechenterroristsbutagentsofRussiasintelligenceservice,theFSB.
FourRussiancitizenswhotriedtoinvestigatetheapartmentbombingsweremurdered.TheseweretheDumadeputiesSergeiYushenkovandYuri
Shchekochikhin,investigativereporterAnnaPolitkovskaya,andAlexanderLitvinenko.
PopularsupportforthesecondChechenwarwasreinforcedwiththehelpoftwoterroristacts,thesiegesoftheDubrovkatheaterandtheBeslanschool,
inwhichtherewasevidencethattheregimehadarole.Ineachcase,athousandormorehostageswereseizedbyChechenterrorists,Mr.Putinrefusedto
negotiateandactedinsteadtokilltheterroristsaswellashundredsofhostages.TheleadersoftheattackshadrecentlybeenreleasedfromRussianjails,
andauthoritieshadignoredcrediblewarningsofanimpendingterroriststrike.
IntheaftermathoftheBeslanschoolmassacre,inwhich318hostages,including186children,werekilled,Mr.Putinannouncedtheabolitionofthepopular
electionofgovernors,adirectviolationoftheRussianConstitution.
AsMr.Putinconsolidateddictatorialpower,hefacedaweakbutinfluentialoppositionledbyBorisNemtsov,aformerdeputyprimeminister.OnFeb.27,
2015,NemtsovwasmurderedontheMoskvoretskyBridgeoppositetheKremlin,alocationunderaround-the-clocksurveillancebyMr.Putinspersonal
guard.Thetriggermenwerearrestedbutnotthemastermind,andtheStateDumahasrefusedtoconductaninvestigation.
ThisiswhytheLitvinenkoinquirysoutcomeissoimportant.ThetruthaboutRussiasrecenthistoryisknowable,butnotthroughthecontrolledinstitutions
oftheRussianstate.ExaminingthemanycrimesoftheYeltsinandPutinerasisthereforeaninternationalobligation.SuchaneffortmaysparetheWestfrom
uninformedpolicybutitsrealvalueisthehelpitcangivetotheRussianpeople,whocannotbegintobuildabetterfuturewithoutfreeingthemselvesfroma
carapaceoflies.
Mr.SatteristheauthorofTheLessYouKnow,theBetterYouSleep:RussiasRoadtoTerrorandDictatorshipUnderYeltsinandPutin,coming
inMayfromYaleUniversityPress.
Subject:TheWaterisGettingWarmerfortheFrogbyPaulG/oble
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
TheWaterisGettingWarmerfortheFrog
PaulGoble
Staunton,January23ManyareexpectingthattheconclusionoftheBritishjudicialinvestigationintothemurderofAleksandrLitvinenkothat
VladimirPutinwasbehindthatcrimewillleadtoaseachangeinthereactionoftheWesttoPutinandhisregime.Asmuchasonewouldliketo
believethat,theprospectsdonotappeartobegood.
Thereasonissimple:WesternleadersandindeedWesternpublicsareliketheproverbialfrogwhomighthavejumpedoutofakettle
ofboilingwaterbutquietlyacceptstheirpositionifthewaterissimplywarmedup,ultimatelytoboiling.Eachriseintemperatureisacceptedas
thenewnormal,andtheoveralltrendtowardtheboilingpointisignoredoratleastdiscounted.
Putinbeganhisrisebykilling300ofhisowncitizenstorestartaviciouswarinChechnya,butmostintheWestrefusedtoacceptthefindingsof
expertsandtheevidencefromRyazanonthatandcontinuedtolookathimasthecontinuerofthemarketorientedpoliciesthattheWestcaredmoreabout
thandemocracyandfreedom.
Putinarrestedandinsomecaseshadhisopponentskilled,andagainWesternleaderssaidjustastheyhadinthe1930saboutHitlerthatthestories
wereoverblownandthattheKremlinleaderwassomeonetheWesthadacompellinginteresttocooperatewithratherthancontainandworktoremove.
PutinlaidouthisplansforarevanchistpolicyinMunich,andtheseweredismissedinWashingtonandothercapitalsasplayingtohisdomestic
audience.ThenheinvadedGeorgiaandmorerecentlyhehasinvadedUkraine.ButinsteadofsupportingthosevictimsofRussianaggression,theWestchose
tonegotiatewithPutinaboutthemwithoutthem.
Ineverycase,thelogichasbeenthesame:First,someconstantlytrytoblamethevictims,suggestingthatPutinhadtoactthewayhedid.Then,
theyinsistthathecouldntbeasbadashiscriticssay.Andthen,suchpeoplearguethatevenifheis,heisstillsomeonetheyhavetotalktobecauseof
Russiaspower.
Becauseofsuchattitudes,therehasalwaysbeenamarketforthosewhoarguethattheycanestablishrapportwithPutinandhisregimeandachieve
abreakthrough.Thosewhosuggesttheyaredeceivingthemselvesonthatpointandevenbeingplayedaredismissednowjustasconsistentlyaswerethewild
ChurchillmenwhoopposedHitler.
WhatisperhapsthemostappallingandhypocriticalaspectofthissituationisthatmanyWesterngovernmentsdoinfacttakesmall
stepsindicatingtheyunderstandthesituationbutdonotrefrainfromsayinghowsorrytheyaretohavetodoeventhatorfromdispatchingtheir
diplomatstoMoscowtonegotiatewithPutinabouthisagenda.
ThetimehascometorecognizethatPutin,likeHitlerandStalinbeforehim,willkeepmovinginincreasinglyhorrificdirectionsbothat
homeandabroadunlesstherestoftheworldclearlyrecognizeshisevilandtakesstepstoblockhimforitssakeandforthesakeofRussians
aswellbecausedespitePutinsmegalomania,PutinisnotRussiaandRussiaisnotPutin.
ButasofyetanddespitetheLitvinenkocasefindings,theretragicallydoesnotseemtobemuchofawillingnesstorecognizetherealitywefind
ourselvesin:thewaterthatthefrogfindsitselfinisgettinghotterandhotterandunlesssomethingisdone,thewaterwillboilandthefrogasaresultwilldie.
Subject:IfPutinInvadestheBaltics,RussiaWillSharetheFateoftheUSSR,ShtepaSaysbyPaulGoble
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
IfPutinInvadestheBaltics,RussiaWillSharetheFateoftheUSSR,ShtepaSays
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.fi/2016/01/if-putin-invades-baltics-russia-will.html
PaulGoble
Staunton,January23TheSovietUniondisintegratedwhenMoscowattemptedtoholdtheperipheryandinthefirstinstancetheillegallyoccupied
Balticcountriesbyforcealone,VadiimShtepasays.AndiftheRussianFederationisfoolishenoughtoinvadetheBalticcountriesnow,itwillsharetheSoviet
Unionsfate.
Indeed,theRussianregionalistwhonowlivesinTallinnsays,inthisway,theBalticcountrieswhichatonetimebeganthedisintegrationofthe
USSRwillinaparadoxicalwayplayasimilarhistoricalrolealsoforitslegalsuccessor(spektr.press/rossiya-i-baltiya-kto-kogo-perepugaet/).
InanarticleyesterdayentitledRussiaandtheBaltics:WhoisScaringWhom?Shtepawritesthatthismonthisthe25thanniversaryofMoscows
effortstoholdtheUSSRtogetherbyusingforceinLithuaniaandLatvia,actionsthathadtheunintendedeffectofacceleratingthedemiseofthatcountry
becausefewwantedtoliveinastateheldtogetherbyforcealone.
Astheworldknows,Lithuania,LatviaandEstoniaplayedaleadingroleintheliquidationoftheSovietempire,aboveallbyinsistingonthe
denunciationofthesecretprotocolsoftheMolotov-RibbentropPactbywhichStalinandHitlerdividedupEasternEurope,Shtepasays.
ThedemocraticRussiaof1991willinglyrecognizedtheindependenceoftheBalticcountries,hecontinues.Butpresent-dayPutinRussiahas
rapidlyevolvedinthedirectionoftheformerSovietimperialworldview.NowthepresidentoftheRussianFederationdeclaresthatthedisintegrationofthe
USSRwasthegreatestgeopoliticalcatastropheofthe20thcentury.
Tragically,thathasbecomemainstreamthinkinginMoscow,withPutinandhissupportersviewingalltherestofthepost-Sovietcountriesnotas
reallyindependentstatebutassomekindofpoliticalmisunderstandingwhichbyaccidentappearedonthemap.Andiftheyinsistontheirindependence,
RussiawillbegintotreattheminahostilewayuptoandincludingusingmilitaryforceagainstthemasinGeorgiaandUkraine.
TheBalticcountries,however,byjoiningNATOin2004haveturnedouttobebeyondreachandpossiblythereforetheygenerateparticular
hostilityamongtherestorersofempirewhoknowthattheycannotactagainstthethreethewaytheyhaveelsewherelestRussiafinditselfinaconflictwith
themostimportantmilitaryallianceontheplanet.
ButthathasntstoppedRussiancommentatorsfromtalkingaboutusingforceagainstEstonia,LatviaandLithuania,Shtepasays.AnMGIMO
militaryexpert,forexample,hassuggestedthatMoscowshoulddojustthatifNATObacksitsmemberTurkeyagainstRussia,somethinghesaysitcoulddo
easilyandquickly(svpressa.ru/war21/article/138968/).
IthasntpreventedVladimirPutinfrompromulgatinganewsecuritydoctrinewhichidentifiesNATOandofcourseNATOcountrieslikeEstonia,
LatviaandLithuaniaaspotentialenemiesoftheRussianFederation(rus.delfi.lv/news/daily/abroad/rossiya-oficialno-vklyuchila-nato-i-ssha-v-spisok-ugroz-
bezopasnosti.d?id=46901963).
AndithasnotstoppedtheRussiandefenseministryfromannouncingtheformationofnewdivisionsinthewest,divisionsthatcouldbedeployedat
theBalticcountries,anactionthatRussiancommentatorshavesuggestedissimplyareasonableMoscowresponsetoNATOseffortstosupportitsmembers
(rbc.ru/politics/22/01/2016/56a1e4999a794761d2b7f9f5).
AfewpeopleintheWesthavebeenintimidatedbyMoscowsstatementsandactions,buttheyforgetthefactsofhistory,theRussianregionalist
says.TheBalticcountriessoughttojoinNATOpreciselyinordertosecurethemselvesforeverfrompossiblerepetitionofaggressionbytheireastern
neighbor.
Shtepaadds:itisinstructivethattoday,48percentofthecitizensofUkrainesupportjoiningNATO,whenonlyayearagothefigurewas34
percent.Thus,inUkraineasintheBalticcountries,RussianaggressionhasledtoaresultoppositetowhatMoscowintends,togrowinginterestinthe
Westernalliance.
Unfortunately,Moscowdoesnotappeartohavelearnedthislessonortobeconstrainedfromdoingtheunthinkable.Twoyearsago,aRussianwar
againstUkraineseemedimprobablyabsurdbutthenitbecameatragicreality.Consequently,oneshouldnotdismissRussiarhetoricasasimpleblufforas
playingtoadomesticaudience.
Moreover,Shtepawrites,Russiainthecourseofthe[Ukrainian]warhasusedaplethoraoftechnologieswhichitisnowcustomarytocall
hybrid.AnditisquitelikelythatanyRussinaggressionagainsttheBalticswouldnotatleastatthebeginninghavetheformofadirectmilitaryinvasion.
ForaKremlinfilledwithnostalgiafortheUSSR,heconcludes,oppositiontothehostileWesthasbeentransformedalreadyintoanendin
itself,andinthisartificiallypumpedupatmosphere,itisimpossibletoexcludethatsomekindoftragicaccidentcouldtriggerarealmilitaryclashbetween
RussiaandNATOintheBalticcountries.
ButgivenwhatsuchanactionwouldleadtoforRussiaitselfinthefirstinstance,itisthusworthaskingwhoshouldbemoreafraidofsuchamove,those
inMoscowpossiblyconsideringitorthoseMoscowthinkswouldbeitsonlyvictims?
From:WalterLycholat<lycholat@earthlink.net>
Subject:ISRAELHASRUSSIAINITSFACEANDWE'RENOTTHERE
To:"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Cc:5MORE
Here'sarealeyepopperfromtheJerusalemPost.ItnotonlymakescleartheRussianGermancompetitionoverSyriaandLebanonbutalsoexposeswhythe
Israeli's(Judah)willgotoGermanyforprotectionfromRussia.Here'stheJerusalempostarticleIsraelandtheRussiachallenge:
CarolineGlick,JerusalemPost|January18
WETALKEDABOUTTHIS
IsraeliAirForcecommandersarereportedlydeeplyworried
aboutRussiasmilitarypresenceinSyria.
WhenRussianPresidentVladimirPutindeployedhisforcesto
Syrialastyear,heclaimedthatthedeploymentwouldbebrief.
Lastweek,whenthetermsofthedeploymentagreementconcluded
betweenRussiaandSyriaweremadepublic,wediscovered
thatthoseearlyclaimswerefalse.Underthetermsofthe
deal,RussiacanmaintainpermanentbasesinSyria.
Tobesure,PutinsdecisiontosetuppermanentbasesinSyria
isnotdirectedagainstIsrael.RussiaandIsraelhavebeenable
toreachtacticalagreementsoverSyria.
ButIsraelsabilitytoreachtacticalunderstandingswithRussia
doesntmeanIsraelcantrustthatRussiasoperationsinthe
areawillnotharmitsnationalsecurityinsignificantways.
Forinstance,thereportsthatRussiaistransferringarmsto
Hezbollaharedeeplyworrying.Forthepastfiveyears,according
toreportsinforeignmedia,theAirForcehasrepeatedlybombed
shipmentsofIranianweaponsdestinedforHezbollahforcesin
Lebanon.
Thegovernmentandmilitaryhavenooptionsfordealingwith
Russiassuddenemergenceasamajorpowerinourbackyard.
AndthereisnothingnewinIsraelshelplessness.
WeveneverhadanoptionforreininginMoscow.
UntilBarackObamaenteredtheWhiteHouse,everyU.S.president
fromFranklinRooseveltonbelieveditwasaU.S.economic
andstrategicinterestofthefirstordertocurbRussianpowerin
theMiddleEast.ThechiefreasontheU.S.beganitsstrategicalliance
withIsraelafterthe1967SixDayWarwasbecausebydefeating
RussianclientsEgyptandSyria,Israelproveditsvaluetothe
U.S.sColdWarstrategy.
Inthesucceedingdecades,IsraelandtheU.S.hadadivision
oflabor.ItwasIsraelsjobtodefeatordeterRussianorSoviet
clientsintheArabworld.ItwastheU.S.sjobtodeterRussiaor
theSovietUnion.
Now,inthefinalyearoftheObamapresidency,allthatisgone.
ObamaiscontenttoseeRussiaexertpowerandinfluencethat
noneofhispredecessorswouldhavecountenanced.Andso,for
thefirsttime,IsraelfindsitselfstandingaloneagainstRussia,
withnoclearmeansofprotectingitsvitalnationalsecurityinterests.
MM
PSJustprovesallthosewanting"peace"intheMiddleEastareNAIVE.
From:WalterLycholat<lycholat@earthlink.net>
Subject:[new-book-of-putin-quotes-echoes-historys-darkest-dictators]
ComparePutintorecentfamoustyrantslikeHitler,Mao,Qadafi,Niyazov,andLeninwithhisnewbook.I'dliketogetacopytogetaninsightintohis
thinking.LetmeknowifucangetanEnglishtranslatedone.
http://www.thetrumpet.com/article/13485.2.0.0/world/new-book-of-putin-quotes-echoes-historys-darkest-dictators
MM
PSIthinktheseguysknowPutinisaniceguyandreflectthataccordingly.[....))))....]
NewBookofPutinQuotesEchoesHistorysDarkestDictators
January20,2016FromtheTrumpet.com
ThedecisiontopublishanddistributethebookmayhelptheRussianpresidenttotightenhisgriponpower.
BYJEREMIAHJACQUES
****
TocelebratetheNewYear,theRussiangovernmentgavehundredsofhigh-rankingofficialsaspecialgift:a400-pagebookofprophetic
quotesbyPresidentVladimirPutin.
Thebook,titledWordsThatChangetheWorld,includes19ofthemostimportantspeechesandinterviewsPutinhasgivenduringthelast
12years.Hundredsofshort,tweetablepassagesareboldedinthetext.
AntonVolodin,whospearheadedthebookspublication,saidPutinswordsarevaluabletoRussianleaderslargelybecausetheytendto
beprophetic:WenoticedthateverythingPutinsays,tovaryingdegrees,comestrue,hesaid.Inthisbook,wehavetracedhiswordsand
confirmedthisidea.Putinswordscanbedescribedasprophetic.
AfterPutinsdeputychiefofstaffsawacopyofthebook,hedeemeditamust-readforallRussianofficials.
Hesnappedupall1,500copiesoftheinitialprintrunanddistributedthemtoofficialsacrossthenationasNewYearsgifts.Theyweresent
alongwithalettersayingthebookshouldbeviewedasaguidetotheKremlinsvaluesandguidingprinciples.
Anotherprintrunisscheduledforlaterthismonth,whichwillmakethebookavailabletothepublicfor$11percopy.Plansareintheworks
forChineseandEnglishtranslations.
Thedistributionofthisbookhassoberingimplicationsbecauseitfollowsapatternsetbyseveralofhistorysdarkestdictatorships.
TheSovietScriptures
DuringthedaysoftheSovietUnion,governmentofficialsandthegeneralpublicwereencouragedtobewellacquaintedwithVladimir
LeninsCollectedWorks.
Thesebooksinstructedreadersonhowtothinkabouteverythingfrommilitaryscienceandindustrytoagricultureandtheroleofyoung
peopleinSovietsociety.
From1918to1974,theSovietspublishedatotalof465,714,000copiesofCollectedWorks,oftenrevisingthecontenttoconformtothe
partyseverevolvingpolicies.TheGreatSovietEncyclopediasaysthebooksaidedgreatlyinthepartystheoreticalworkandinthe
propagationofMarxism-Leninism.
MaosManual
ThentherewasMaoTse-Tungsso-calledLittleRedBook.DuringChinasCulturalRevolutionofthe1960sand1970s,itwasvirtually
mandatoryforallChinesepeopletoownandconstantlycarryacopyofthisbooklayingoutallofChairmanMaosideologies.Researches
saythatonlytheHolyBiblehassoldmorecopiesthanMaosbook.
ThetroubleisthatMaoscommunistideologiesendedupkilling65to75millionpeople.Thatmakeshimthemanresponsibleformore
murdersthananyotherpersoninhistory.AndhistoriansagreethathisLittleRedBookplayedamajorroleinadvancinghislethalideas
amongtheChinesepopulace.
TheFhrersFolios
AnddontforgetMeinKampf,whichAdolfHitlerwrotewhileimprisonedbeforehebecomeGermanyschancellor.Thisbooklaidout
HitlersplanforGermany,bynamingJewsasraciallyinferiorandsayingtheythreatenedtheraciallysuperiorAryans.
DuringHitlersreign,acopyofthebookwasgiventoeverysoldierandnewlywedcoupleinGermany.SalesofthebookalsomadeHitlera
wealthyman.BytheendofWorldWarII,wellover10millioncopieshadbeensoldordistributedinGermanyalone.
HistoriansagreethatthewidespreaddisseminationofMeinKampfhelpedHitlerwinGermansovertohiscause,andgavetractiontohis
diabolicalideas.
QadhafisCopy
Morerecently,LibyaslateMuammarQadhafipublishedtheeccentricGreenBook.Sometimesdescribedasahow-tomanualfor
dictators,thebooksetoutQadhafisphilosophiesoneverythingfromthedangersofpoliticalpartiestotheimportanceofbreastfeeding.
Fromitsfirstpublicationin1975untilQadhafiwaskilledin2011,thebookwasrequiredreadingforallLibyans.
AbdulMajid,anEnglishteacherinthecapital,saidtheworkhelpedQadhafimaintainhisirongriponLibyatothedetrimentofthecountry:
TheGreenBookwasadisasterforLibya.Itledthecountrytoitscurrentmiserablestate.
NiyazovsNonsense
Finally,wecometoTurkmenistanslateandunlamenteddictatorSaparmuratNiyazov.From1985untilhisdeathin2006,Niyazovruled
TurkmenistanwithapersonalitycultthatputJosefStalinstoshame.In2004,hepublishedTheBookoftheSoul,whichcombinedhis
religiousinstructionwithrevisionistTurkmenianhistoryandplentyofforaysintopoliticsandphilosophy.
NiyazovsaidTheBookoftheSoulwasholywrit,onparwiththeKoran.Withhisheavilyrepressivestatesecurityapparatus,hemadeit
mandatoryreadingateverylevelofelementaryandcollegiateeducationoftentotheexclusionofsubjectssuchasmathandscience.
Niyazovevenhadquestionsabouthisbookaddedtojobinterviewscripts,civilservicetestsandthenationaldriverslicenseexam.
NiyazovalsohadacopyofTheBookoftheSouljettisonedouttheairlockofaRussianspaceshuttlesothathecouldtelltheTurkmen
peoplehehadconqueredouterspace.In2006,NiyazovsaidhehadmadeadealwithGodtoguaranteethatanyonewhoreadthebook
threetimeswouldautomaticallygotoheaven.
BackonEarth
ThedecisiontopublishanddistributethenewbookofVladimirPutinsquotesfollowsapatternsetbyseveralofhistorysdarkestandmost
bizarredictatorships.
Authoritarianrulersoftenportraythemselvesasthesupremesourceofwisdomfortheirnations.Theybelievethatbydemonstratingtheir
wisdom,theycanvalidatetheirabsolutepower.Formany,writingbooksandrequiringsubordinatestoviewthemassacredtextshas
provenasuccessfulwayofaccomplishingthisgoal.
ItsunlikelythatthenewbookofVladimirPutinsquoteswillbeusedtoprovethatheiskingofouterspaceortojustifygenocide.Butif
historyisareliableindication,thebookcouldprovetobeatoolthathelpshimindoctrinatehiscountrymen,silencehisopposition,and
tightenhisgriponpower.
OnJan23,2016,at6:40AM,"nestory@juno.com"<nestory@juno.com>wrote:
SNOWSTORM?
DO WE WISH IT WAS NO STORM?
AH, TO BE A KID AGAIN!
SNOW STORMS WERE THE COOLEST!
WE COULD WALK DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH IMPUNITY

BECAUSE THE CARS WERE ALL SNOWED IN AND THE SNOWPLOWS
HADN'T GOTTEN OUT YET TO RUIN EVERYTHING AND TURN THE
SNOW INTO SLUSH --
WE WERE IN ANOTHER WORLD -- PRISTINE WHITE WORLD -- A

SILENT WORLD -- BUT NOT FOR LONG -- SNOWBALLS FLYING
THROUGH THE AIR -- LET'S GO TO DEAD MAN'S HILL WITH OUR SLEDS
-- (ROSEBUD?) -- NOT WALKING -- TRUDGING -- WE DIDN'T FEAR
SNOW -- WE WELCOMED IT!
From:DrD<drdenny324@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,Jan23,2016at7:24AM
Subject:Re:SNOWSTORM-2016
To:"nestory@juno.com"<nestory@juno.com>
Cc:ahryhorowych@gmail.com,LoneTJ13@aol.com,23MORE
Darnright!Wewaitedforthesnow....Andhereisalookoutmybackdoorasofnow....
+++
SentfrommyiPad
Senttime: 01/19/201601:43:33PM
FW:[ZJORDANOM][DIGESTOFDIGESTS][JD1-19-16]Fwd:RussianTRUCKERSoutsideofMoscow--they'restillthere![MUST
Subject: SEE]......[FromODDD]AndersA:7KeyReformsforUAin2016[MUSTREAD]...SteveBlInterviewonVOA[MUSTLISTEN]..........[WD]EU
...
Sent:Tuesday,January19,20161:34PM
Subject:Fwd:[ZJORDANOM][DIGESTOFDIGESTS][JD1-19-16]Fwd:RussianTRUCKERSoutsideofMoscow--they'restillthere!
[MUSTSEE]......[FromODDD]AndersA:7KeyReformsforUAin2016[MUSTREAD]...SteveBlInterviewonVOA[MUST
LISTEN]..........[WD]EU...
Subject:[ZJORDANOM][DIGESTOFDIGESTS][JD1-19-16]Fwd:RussianTRUCKERSoutsideofMoscow--they'restill
there![MUSTSEE]......[FromODDD]AndersA:7KeyReformsforUAin2016[MUSTREAD]...SteveBlInterviewonVOA
[MUSTLISTEN]..........[WD]EUDEZINFORMREVIEW11[MUSTNOTE].....ANDABELATEDFPOvernightBrieffor1-
19-16[MaterialRelevanttoUA&Region]
Subject:WonderingaboutthefateofthecampoftheRussianlong-haulTRUCKERSoutsideofMoscow--they'restill
WonderingaboutthefateofthecampoftheRussianlong-haulTRUCKERSoutsideofMoscow--they'restill
URL:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/tv/topics/71484.html?print=1
Aspunishmenttheauthoritieshavebeendumpingallthesnowfromsurroundingdistrictsnexttothe
campfurtherisolatingtheprotesters(shownonvideo).
And:InRussiaSOCIALPROTESTShavebegunanew,http://echo.msk.ru/news/1696504-echo.html
InspiredbythesuccessfulprotestactionofPENSIONERSinKrasnodarandSochi,studentsin
NOVGORODarethreateningamajorstrikeovertheremovalordownsizingoftheirtransportation
benefits.
And:ForthedeclarationoftheNovgorodstudents,signedby1052supporters,see:Studencheskii
proezdnoivernut!VELIKIINOVGOROD,http://www.change.org/
And:StudentsinGreatNovgorodhavethreatenedtogooutontothestreets,
http://tvrain.ru/news/proezd-401936/
And:Russianoligarchs[Abramovich,Usmanov,Potaninandothers]lose$11bninjusttendaysduring
oilpricecrash,telegraph.co.uk,1/18
And:InU.S.money-launderingcase,shadesofRussianCORRUPTION,
http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27494612.html
And:OnconditionsintheLUHANSKbasements(controlledbytheseparatists)whereUkrainian
prisonersofwarhavebeentormentedanddied:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/71465.html?print=1
And:The[Russian]CommissionontheDefenseofStateSecretshasdeclinedtomakepublicthe
archivesoftheKGB,http://grani.ru/Politics/FSB/m.247829.html
Thearchivesofthesecretpolicefor1917-1991willbepreservedinsecret.Thesedocumentsconcerning
theworkofthechekistyremainactual.
And:DutchMPssuspectRUSSIANTRACEinreferendumonAssociationwithUkraine,unian.info,
1/19
And:StateDumaSpeaker[NARYSHKIN]suggestsEUsanctionKievoverMinskviolations,
themsocowtimes.com,1/19
And:HillaryCLINTON:newRESETpossibleinU.S.-Russianrelationship,themoscowtimes.com,
1/19
From:Deychak,Orest<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
Subject:Ukraine:USEKyivACKPNYTWoE[ANDERSASLUND"MUSTREAD':7KeyReformsforUAin2016]
To:"Deychak,Orest"<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
AtlanticCouncil
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/seven-key-reforms-for-ukraine-in-2016
JANUARY18,2016
SevenKeyReformsforUkrainein2016
BYANDERSSLUND
AfterOrthodoxChristmas,IspentafewdaysinKyiv.Itisquitestrikinghowthemoodhaschangedinapositivedirection.The
2016budgetandthemodifiedtaxcodewereadoptedonDecember24.Aftertwoweeksofwell-deservedrest,thereisasudden
realizationthatUkraineaccomplishedmanyimportanteconomicreformsin2015.Admittedly,manyUkrainiansrepeatthemantra
thatnoreformshavetakenplace,butthatisnottrue.Hundredsofsensiblereformlawshavebeenadoptedandtheirbreadthis
impressive.
Energyreformhasgreatlyreducedpricediscrepanciesandlimitedtheopportunitiesforcorruptarbitragebetweenstate-controlled
andfreeprices,whilesharplyreducingstatesubsidies.Thebudgethasbeenbroughtclosetobalance,andmajorinternational
financingtogetherwithdebtrestructuringwasaccomplished.Taxreformhasbeenadopted.Thebankingsystemisbeingcleaned
upasmorethanone-thirdofthebankshavebeenclosed.Afterasubstantialdevaluation,theexchangeratehasstabilizedand
internationalcurrencyreserveshaveincreasedconsiderably.Electronicprocurementhasbeenwidelyintroduced.Some
deregulationhasoccurred.
YetUkrainiansarerighttocomplain.Outputhasslumped,whilepriceshaveskyrocketedastheexchangeratehasplummeted.The
countryismuchpoorer.Thedominantconcernsarethatcorruptionhasnotdiminishedandpublicserviceshavenotimproved.
Nevertheless,thepreviousachievementslistedaboveindicatewhatremainstobedoneandwhatthecountry'sprioritiesshouldbe
in2016.
1.Themainpriorityisreformoftheprosecutionandcourts.Ukraineadoptedalawonprosecution,butProsecutorGeneralViktor
Shokinmanagedtotakecontrolofthereformprocess,minimizingthechange.Shokinhastogoandthereformoftheprosecution
needstostartanewundernewleadership.Similarly,thecountry's10,000judgesneedtobelustratedandnewjudgesappointedin
areformedcourtsystem.
2.Muchwasaccomplishedinenergyreformin2015,andin2016itshouldbecompleted.Gasandelectricitypricesshouldbe
unifiedatamarketlevelandsetunderthecontrolofanindependentregulatorfromApril1andagasandelectricitymarketshould
finallybeallowedtodevelop.Taxationofindependentoilandgasproducersmustbemadereasonable,andtheirregulationshould
besimplified.Socialsubsidiesaregiventothepoorestthirdofthepopulation,butnofurthersubsidiesshouldbegiventoenergy
companies.
3.Ukraine's1,833state-ownedcompaniesareadenofcorruption.Thevastmajority,1,600,areoflittlevaluejustextracting
subsidiesfromthestate.Theyshouldbesoldoffataregionallevelandthepaymentsgiventotheregionalgovernmentstomotivate
themtoafasterselloff.Thetop100stateenterprises,mainlyinenergyandtransportation,haverealvalueandtheirprivatization
shouldbeopentoforeignbidderswheneverpossible.Thesesalesmustbetransparentandcompetitiveaimingbothathighprices
andsoundrestructuring.About120armamentcompaniesbelongtoUkroboronpromandneedtobeconsideredaseparate
nationalsecuritymatter.Forsuchreasons,Russianentitiesneedtobeblockedfromparticipationinprivatizationandforeignentities
shouldhavetransparentultimatebeneficiaries.
4.Ukrainerequiresprofoundcivilservicereform,whichhasbeenlegislatedandwillcomeintoforceinthespring.Itisvitalthatitis
properlyimplemented.Salariesofcivilservantsmustberaisedsothattheycanliveontheirsalaries.Acleardivisionneedstobe
madebetweenpoliticalandcivilserviceappointments.Entryintothecivilserviceshouldtakeplacethroughcompetitiveexams.
Promotionsshouldbebasedonmerit,notseniority.Standardrulesagainstconflictsofinterestshouldbeintroduced.TheEuropean
UnionhasofferedsubstantialfinancialandtechnicalsupportandthisissomethingthatEUcountriesdowell.
Thevastadministrationofthecabinetofministersof700peoplethattraditionallyhasduplicatedandhamperedtheworkofthe
ministriesshouldbedismantledandreplacedwithalimitedapparatusforcoordination.Thesystemofrequiringtwentytothirty
signaturesoneachmajordecisionmustend,andministriesshouldobtainrealresponsibility.
5.Thebudgetdeficithasbeenbroughtundercontrolandthemostcorruptexpenditureshavebeeneliminated,butUkraineneeds
toreformthebudgetprocesstomakeitfullytransparent.ThisrequirestechnicalassistancefromaWesterncountrywithawell-
functioningbudgetsystemtorenderpublicexpendituresefficient.
6.Ukrainecarriedoutsomederegulationin2015,butfartoolittle.Manyinspectionagenciespersistandshouldbeclosed.
UkrainecouldrisesharplyontheWorldBank'sEaseofDoingBusinessIndex,ifitcarriedoutpossiblederegulation.
7.FormerMinisterofEducationDmytroTabachnikcausedchaosintheschoolsystem2010-13.Ukraineneedstoestablish
elementaryorderintheschoolorganizationandcurriculum.Polandoffersagoodexamplethatcouldbecopied.Thiswouldnot
costmuch,butitisamatterofgettingtheproperadministrationintoplace.
Manyotherissuesarealsoimportant,notablyimprovementofthehealthcaresystem,butsuchreformrequiresmoretime.Thetop
sixprioritiesaboveareallfocusedonreducingcorruption.Schoolreformiscomparativelyeasyandcanbedonewithinayear.
Ukrainehasreformedmuchin2015,butthegovernmentneedstokeepupthemomentumtoattainsoundeconomicgrowth.
AndersslundisaseniorfellowattheAtlanticCouncilandauthorof"Ukraine:WhatWentWrongandHowtoFixIt."
From:StephenBlank<traininblank@aol.com>
Subject:Fwd:thanks![ED:AnVerySubstantiveSteveBInterviewonVOA]
To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu,herpirch@aol.com
-----OriginalMessage-----
From:TetianaKharchenko<tkharchenko@voanews.com>
To:StephenBlank<traininblank@aol.com>
Sent:Tue,Jan19,20161:55pm
Subject:thanks!
HiStephen,
ThankyouagainforcomingtoourTVshow.HereisthelinkforthatinterviewwhichBohdanhasconductedwithyou.
http://ukrainian.voanews.com/content/stiven-blank-on-minsk/3148962.html
andfortheshow:
http://ukrainian.voanews.com/media/video/tv-programs-chastime/3147829.html?z=1684&zp=1
Best,
Tania.
Subject:DisinformationReview:IssueEleven[EastStratComTaskForce]
From:EastStratComTaskForce[mailto:stratcom-east=eeas.europa.eu@mail150.suw14.mcdlv.net]OnBehalfOfEastStratComTask
Force
Sent:January19,201611:07AM
To:=?utf-8?Q??=
Subject:DisinformationReview:IssueEleven
New#DisinfoReviewfromtheEEASEastStratComTaskForce Viewthisemailinyour
browser
DisinformationReview:IssueEleven
Dearcolleagues,
Thankyouverymuchforallyourreports.Wearealwayshappytoseenew
languageshere-thistimeItalian.Incaseyouknowaboutsomepeopleor
organisationswhocouldhelpuscovercountriesandlanguagesstillnotpresentin
ourReview,wewillbehappyifyouletusknow.
Asthisweekstrendwechosethedisinformation
targetedatGermany
Pro-KremlinmediausethenewsaboutsexualattacksduringNewYearsEveto
supportoneoftheirmostrepeatednarratives-showingthedecayoftheWestand
theproblemsfacedbyaEuropeanleader.
Alreadylastweek,wesawdisinformationaboutGermanpoliceandAngela
Merkelallegedlynotreactingtotheincident(http://eepurl.com/bMAv5P).This
week,youwillseestoriesabouttheseattacksbeingstagedbysecretservices,eg
theCIAortheirMuslimalliesandpayingtheactorswithheroinboughtfor
taxpayersmoney.OneofRussiasmainnewsprogrammes,"Vesticomparedthe
incidenttotheinfamousNightofLongKnives,orKristallnacht
(http://bit.ly/1QfuCZE).Aeronet.ctreportedthatifyouinsultrefugeesonGerman
FacebookorTwitter,youmightgotojail,whichisalongpreparedplantoban
freedomofspeechandtheNewYearsEveincidentsareonlyanexcuseforthat
(http://bit.ly/1OYZQDk).
Duringtheweekend,thepro-Kremlinmediacamewithastoryclaimingthata
RussiangirlhadbeenrapedinBerlinbymigrants.Inthetable,youwillseemany
linkstothisstoryinallthemostpopularRussianmedia.AlthoughBerlinpolice
deniedthisinformation(http://bit.ly/1Q8DMW4),manyofthestoriesremained
unchanged.
FurtherdisinformationaboutGermanauthoritieswasreportedbyCzechpro-
Kremlinoutlets.Inthetable,youwillseeacoupleofthemclaimingthatthe
GermangovernmentbuysCzechprostitutestosatisfytherefugees.These
prostitutesthenspreadtherefugeessexualdiseasesamongtheCzech
population,whichmight,itisclaimed,bearevengefortheCzechgovernment's
unwillingnesstoacceptrefugeesbytheGermangovernmentandAngelaMerkel.
Lastweek,weshowedhowpro-Kremlinmediainventstorieswrittenbywell-
knownWesternmediatomaketheirreportingmorecredible.Allofthestories
werefaked.Thisweek,wesawasimilarpattern-manystoriesinpro-Kremlin
outletsclaimedthatWesternmediapresageacatastropheforthewholeWest
afteranotheringeniousmovebyVladimirPutin,intendedtocounterthe
sanctionsagainsthiscountry.Infact,theseWesternmediaamountedtoone
articleonabloggingsite.Thestop-fakingsiteNoodleremoverreportsonthis
particularcasemorethoroughly(http://bit.ly/1niqi0M).
Here,weseeadifferentpattern-insteadofmakingproofsup,pro-Kremlinsites
pickanexistingelement,andpervertitintosomethingitisnot.Theverysame
happenedtoaphotographthatallegedlydepictedUkrainiannazis.Infact,there
wereRussianultranationalistsportrayedinthepicture(http://bit.ly/1StZoiM).
ThefalsenarrativeaboutnazisgoverningUkraineisrepeatedoneveryoccasion.
Thus,eventheUkrainianschoolreformsaimisinfactjustaplanhowtoturn
Ukrainianchildrentonazis.Thispieceofinvestigationwasreported
bynovorus.info:http://bit.ly/1V54xvH,andthanspreadbyCzechpro-Kremlin
outlets.
Thisweek,pro-KremlinoutletsalsoclaimthattheAmericansecretservice
managednotonlytostagetheCologneattacks(seeabove),butalsotohelpthe
BulgarianPrimeMinistertogetdrugsinLibyaandweaponstoISIS
(http://bit.ly/1TAAonG).In2009,theCIAalsokilledMichaelJackson
(http://bit.ly/1RONPDe).
Manythankstoallourcontributorsagain,andwearealwayslookingfornewones.
DOWNLOADDISINFORMATIONREVIEWISSUEELEVEN
Forcontributions,pleasee-mailjakub.kalensky@eeas.europa.eu
Whenyouadvertisethisproduct,pleaseusethislinkforautomatedsubscriptions.
Thankyouverymuchonceagain,andwearelookingforwardtoyournewreports,
EastStratCom
FollowusonTwitter@EUvsDisinfo

TheDisinformationReviewisacompilationofreportsreceivedfrommembersofthe
mythbustingnetwork.Themythbustingnetworkcomprisesofover450experts,
journalists,officials,NGOsandThinkTanksinover30countries.Pleasenotethat
opinionsandjudgementsexpressedheredonotrepresentofficialEUpositions.
From:ForeignPolicyInitiative<info@foreignpolicyi.org>
Subject:FPIOvernightBrief:January19,2016
To:Wolodymyr<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
FollowandSupportFPI
FPIOvernightBrief
January19,2016
TableofContents
MiddleEast/NorthAfrica,Asia,Security,Russia/Europe,Americas,Africa,ObamaAdministration,Events
Announcements TheMust-Reads
BesuretoencourageyourcolleaguestosignupfortheFPI NYT:US-Iranprisonerswappitscompassionagainstcosts
OvernightBrief.
BretStephens:NormalizingIran
Ifyousupportourmissionandwork,pleaseconsidermaking
SyriahurdleloomsafterUS-Irandeals
atax-deductibledonationtoFPItoday.
CarterseeksmorehelpagainstISISinParistrip
ISWispublishingregularupdatesonthesituationinIraqand
Syria,andAEI'sCriticalThreatsProjectisdoingsofor Formerwarplanners:ObamatoocautiousinbombingISIS
theYemenconflict.
DavidIgnatius:DefeatingISISwilltakedecades
WSJeditorial:AterrorstateinLibya
Gilinsky,Sokolski:TheotherdangersfromtheN.Korean
nuketest
WSJ+WaPoeditorialsandCohenonChineserepression
AsearchforanswersinKara-Murzasmysteriousillness
MiddleEast/NorthAfrica
Iran
Withinternationalsanctionslifted,theIraniangovernmentcalledonitsoilindustryMondaytoopenthetapsonproduction,amovethatcould
addtoaglobalglutofcrudethathassentpricesintoatailspin.NewYorkTimes
LiterallyhoursaftertheinkhaddriedontheaccordliftinginternationaleconomicsanctionsonIran,big-namecompaniesacrossEuropeandAsia
weresigningdeals,majorworldleaderswerebookingtrademissionstoTehran,idledoilfieldswerebeingorderedbackonline,andIran'sfinancial
authoritieshadprocessedapplicationsforsome1,000lettersofcreditfrombusinesseshopingtocutdealsinthenearfuture.WashingtonTimes
TheglowofgoodwillthatfollowedasurpriseprisonerswapandtheliftingofinternationalsanctionsonIran'snuclearprogramovertheweekend
isalreadybeingtemperedbythesomberrealizationthattheIslamicRepublicisnotlikelytochangecoursesignificantlyonotherpressing
conflictswiththeWest.LosAngelesTimes
ThedramaticreleaseoffiveAmericansimprisonedinIranovertheweekendhighlightedanunprecedentedlevelofdiplomaticcooperation
betweentwocountriesthathavelongbeenatodds,raisingthetantalizingpossibilityofaneweraofU.S.-Irandtente.ForeignPolicy
TwoIranianpoetswhofacelashingsandprisonsentenceshavefledIran,oneofthewriterssaidMonday,arareescapeforlocalartistsand
activistsensnaredinanongoingcrackdownonexpressioninthecountry.AssociatedPress
BretStephenswrites:IranwillbecomeanormalcountryonlywhenitceasestobeanIslamicRepublic.Inthemeantime,theonlyquestionis
howfarwearepreparedtoabaseourselvesinourquesttonormalizeit.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)
SimonChinandValerieLincywrite:Inthefirstroundofsanctionsrelief,theEuropeanUnion,UnitedStates,andUnitedNationsliftedthebulkof
itsnuclear-relatedsanctionsagainstIran,includingmostoftherestrictionsthathadbeenimposedagainstIransfinancial,transport,andenergy
sectors.(U.S.partieswillstillbeprohibitedfromdoingbusinesswithIranianentitiesbecauseoftheembargo.)IranWatch
FredFleitzwrites:HowdidIranreachthenucleardealsImplementationDay?BecausetheObamaadministrationriggedthegamebysettingthe
barsolowthatIraniancompliancewasassuredThatswhatledtoadisastrousagreementthatwillmaydoenormousdamagetointernational
securityfordecadestocome.FoxNews
Syria
TheprisonerexchangebetweentheU.S.andIran,coincidingwiththecompletionofthenucleardeal,markedmilestonesinPresidentBarack
Obamaspolicyofengagement,butonesthatwillbedifficulttorepeatasheturnstothenextchallenge:resolvingtheconflictinSyria.Wall
Barelyamonthaftertheworldsmostpowerfulcountriesagreedtoanambitiousroadmaptoendthefive-year-oldwarinSyria,thereisstillno
agreementonwho,ifanyone,willshowupatthepeacetalksthataresupposedtobegininGenevanextMonday.NewYorkTimes
IntheMiddleEast,whereRussiahasengagedinitsownoperationsagainstIslamicStateinSyria,RussiaandtheU.S.,whichisleadingacoalition
againsttheIslamicStateinIraqandSyria,orISIS,alsoknownasISIL,aremakingeveryeffortnottocrosspathsintheskies,Gorencsaid.DOD
Buzz
TheSyrianObservatoryforHumanRightsgroupsaidscoresofSyriangovernmentforceshavebeenkilledinthreedaysoffightingwithIslamic
Stateintheeastofthecountry,wherethejihadistgrouphasattackedgovernment-heldareas.-Reuters
Syrianpeacetalksduenextweekarelookingincreasinglymootasastringofrecentbattlefieldvictoriesbygovernmenttroopshavebolstered
PresidentBasharAssad'shandandplungedtherebelsintodisarray.AssociatedPress
AthirdroundofaidwasdeliveredtobesiegedSyriantownsonMonday,althougharmedgroupspostponedonehumanitarianteam'saccess
sayingtheyneededmoretimetomakesecurityarrangements,theUnitedNationssaidinajointstatement.-Reuters
DaveedGartenstein-RossandNathanielBarrwrite:AlmosteveryaspectoftheObamaadministrationspolicytowardSyriahasbeenscrutinized,
lambastedorpraisedinrecentmonths,butoneofthemostsignificantfacets,theCIAscovertaidprogramtoSyrianrebels,haslargelyslipped
belowtheradar.Itistimethatwestartpayingattention,sincethisinitiativeisbenefitingtheveryjihadistgroupstheU.S.hasbeenfightingforthe
past15years.TheDailyBeast
Iraq
ThreeAmericanswhohavebeenmissinginIraqsinceFridaywereprobablykidnappedfromaBaghdadapartment,accordingtosecurityofficials
andlocalnewsreports.TheapartmentmayhavebeenthehomeofanIraqicolleaguewhoisalsobelievedtohavebeenabducted,theofficialsand
reportssaid.NewYorkTimes
AwaveofattacksagainstciviliansbytheIslamicStateandrivalShiitemilitiasinavolatileIraqiprovincehasraisedfearsaboutthepotentialfor
deadlysectarianviolence,eveninareaswheretheextremistmilitantswereofficiallydeclarederadicated.WashingtonPost
Atleast18,802civilianswerekilledandanother36,245werewoundedinIraqbetweenthestartof2014andOct.31oflastyearasIraqiforces
battledtheIslamicStategroup,accordingtoaU.N.reportreleasedTuesday.AssociatedPress
BaghdadandWashingtonhavetoutedRamadiasthefirstmajorsuccessforIraq'sU.S.-backedarmysinceitcollapsedinthefaceofIslamicState's
lightningadvanceacrossthecountry'snorthandwestinmid-2014.Butthescorched-earthbattlefieldtacticsusedbybothsidesmeantheprizeis
ashatteredruin.-Reuters
[C]learingthecityfrommilitantsandexplosivescouldtakeweeks.Andthediscoveryofmoreciviliansthanexpectedtrappedamongtheruins,
afterwhatthesurvivorssaywasadeliberateeffortbyfighterstousethemasshields,suggestsfuturebattlesagainstIslamicStatecouldbemore
complicated.-Reuters
KimberlyDozierreports:ThreeAmericancontractorswentmissinginBaghdadlateThursday,afterleavingtheheavilyfortifiedIraqimilitarybase
withouttheirsecuritydetail,armedonlywithpistols,accordingtoacontractorwithfirsthandknowledgeoftheincident.TheDailyBeast
Turkey
ATurkishsecurityforcecampaignagainstKurdishmilitantsinthesoutheasthasbeenlargelycompleted,PrimeMinisterAhmetDavutogluwas
reportedassayingonTuesday,asheoutlinedplanstomaintaintightercontrolinpartsoftheregion.-Reuters
LawyersforTurkishPresidentTayyipErdoganfiledalawsuitagainstthemainoppositionleaderonMondayforimplyingthatErdoganwasa
dictator,presidentialsourcesandtheoppositionpartysaid.-Reuters
ReturntoTop
Asia
CentralAsia
TheUzbekgovernment,lobbiedbyrightsgroupsandpressuredquietlybytheUnitedStatestofreeahigh-profilepoliticalprisoner,hasfinally
revealedasecret:Hediedfiveyearsago.NewYorkTimes
LackofagreementonwhowouldcontrolaseparateIndianSpecialForcesCommand(SFC)hasstymiedcreationoftheunitdespitethemilitary's
urgentdesireforone.MilitaryTimes
China
Chinasgrowthslowedfurtherlastyear,addingtothetroublingeconomicpicturethatisunsettlinginvestorsaroundtheworld.NewYorkTimes
WhenChinasgovernmentreportsTuesdayontheeconomysperformancelastyear,onecentralquestionwillhavealreadybeenanswered:
Growthslowedtoitsmostanemicpaceinaquartercentury.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)
Traditionally,collegesconducton-campusinterviewsorenlistalumnitohelp.ButwiththesurgeinapplicationsfromChina,collegesareunableto
keepupwiththevolumeofinterviewrequests.Tosiftthroughthefloodofapplicants,moreAmericaninstitutionshavesoughtthird-party
interviewswithprospectivestudents.NewYorkTimes
WheneverChinaseconomyshowssignsoffaltering,Beijingtypicallymovestostimulategrowthbyboostingspendingoninfrastructureand
thatnormallygivesthingsakickstart.Thistimearound,however,policymakershadresortedtothesamestrategyonlytofindthemselvesfacing
unusualheadwinds,asevidencedbyTuesdaysnewsthatChinaposteditsslowestgrowthinaquartercenturyin2015.WSJsChinaRealTime
ChinasgovernmenthaslaunchedanonlinedatabaseofTibetanlivingBuddhasaspartofwhatcriticsviewasabroaderstruggletocontrolthe
legacyoftheexiledDalaiLama.FinancialTimes
Chineseauthoritieswillprosecutetwoformerseniorofficials,includingaone-timevicemayorofShanghai,forcorruption,afterprobesfoundthey
abusedtheirpowerandtookbribes,therulingCommunistParty'santi-graftwatchdogsaidonTuesday.-Reuters
HongKong
GuiMinhai,theowneroftheHongKongpublisherMightyCurrentwhohasbeenmissingsinceOctober,appearedonChinesestatetelevisionlast
night(Jan.17)andmadeatearfulconfessionhehadkilleda20-year-oldcollegestudentwhiledrunkdrivinginNingbo,acityinsoutheastern
Zhejiangprovince,inDecemberof2003.Guisfriendsandfamilyhavetheirdoubts,andsayhisconfessionlooksscriptedandtheystillbelievehe
wasabducted.-Quartz
HongKongpolicehaveconfirmedthatanotherofagroupoffivemissingbooksellerswhosoldworkscriticalofBeijingisinmainlandChina,justa
dayafterhiscolleaguewasparadedonChinesestateTVconfessingtoa12-year-olddrink-drivingoffenceFinancialTimes
ASwedishbooksellerwhosemysteriousdisappearancesparkedfearshemayhavebeenabductedbyChineseagentssaidhehadvoluntarily
turnedhimselfintotheauthoritiesoverafataldrink-drivingoffensemorethanadecadeago.-Reuters
OneofHongKong'sstaunchestpro-Beijinglawmakerssaidabookseller'stearfulconfessiononstatetelevisiontoahit-and-runaccidentmore
thanadecadeagoinChinaisunlikelytoappeasepublicconcernsthathemayhavebeenabducted.-Reuters
Editorial:Thechargeagainstthelawyers,subvertingstatepower,isabsurd.Thelawyersweresimplyadvisingclientshowtodefendthemselves
underChinaslawstheirintentionswerepragmaticandrelativelymodest.Butitisnowcleartheytouchedaverysensitivenerve,andChinas
rulersreactedharshly.Thegrayzoneisbeingturnedintoatwilightzoneoffear,amessagetoanyonethattheycanbetakenawayinthemiddleof
thenight.WashingtonPost
Editorial:Whenreportsofthemissingbooksellerssurfaced,somespeculatedthatrogueChineseagentscouldhavemountedasnatch-and-grab
campaignwithoutapprovalfromhigher-upsinBeijing.Mr.Guistelevisedconfessionsuggestsofficialknowledgeandcomplicity.Thecases
representanescalationofChinasassaultsonjournalism,theautonomyofHongKongandtherightsofoverseasChinesewhoarecitizensof
othersovereignnations.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)
JeromeCohenwrites:IfthecurrentChinesepresidentweretohonorhisfatherspolicy,Chinasprospectsfortransitioningfromdictatorshipto
democracywouldbebrighter.SotoowouldbethefutureofChinaspubliclawyers.Ihopethattheywillcontinuethestruggle,evenwithonearm
tiedbehindthem.Itwouldbetragic,forbothlawyersandChinesesociety,iftheyweretobecomemeretechnicalpractitioners.WallStreet
Journal(subscriptionrequired)
Taiwan
NodogmaismoreimportanttoBeijingthanOneChina,theconceptthatTaiwanisapartofasingleChinesenationjusttemporarilyestranged.
Americaandmuchoftherestoftheworldacquiescetothatposition,denyingtherealitythatTaiwanhassetitscourseasanindependentstate.
Lastweekendsvote,inwhichtheTaiwaneseelectorateoverwhelmingendorsedapartythatrejectsBeijingsOneChinaformula,confirmedthe
directioninthemostemphaticwaytodate.ThatnotonlyputsChinainabind,buttheU.S.too.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)
TheelectionofTsaiIng-wenaspresidentofTaiwanwasmetinChinaonMondaywithsparseandlargelycriticalcomment,suggestingbothalack
ofinteresttowardacandidatewhosepartysnativistleaningsmanyordinaryChinesedonotunderstandandcensorshipinthenewsmediaand
onlineforumsaboutanoutcomethattheCommunistPartyhadnotwishedtosee.NewYorkTimes
PatrickCroninandPhoebeBenichwrite:ThesewindsofchangeoriginatinginTaiwanarealsocertaintobuffetthenextU.S.president.Since
normalizingrelationswithChinaandthepassageoftheTaiwanRelationsActin1979,repeatedadministrationshavemaintainedahighdegreeof
ambiguityregardingsupportforTaiwan.AreenergizedTaiwaneseelectoratewilltestthelongevityofAmericascurrentstrategicambiguityabout
theactualextentofitscommitmenttoTaiwanForeignPolicy
NorthKorea
[E]venasnewsanctionsloom,NorthKoreasbiggesttesttodatehasthrownintostarkreliefthefailureofexistingonestohaltitsnuclear
progressandwithChinastillunwillingtocastitstreatyallyintoeconomicruin,analystsseelittlehopethatthenextroundofmeasureswill
achievethatgoal.FinancialTimes
NorthKoreanleaderKimJongUn'srecentnuclearweapontestwasdesignedtoboosthisdomesticlegitimacyaheadofararerulingparty
conferenceinMaythatcouldformalizemarket-basedeconomicexperimentsintheisolatedcountry,analystssay.-Reuters
VictorGilinskyandHenrySokolskiwrite:ThefirstthingtosayaboutNorthKoreasJan.6nucleartestisthat,despitethepronouncementsof
instantexperts,weknowalmostnothingaboutitstechnicalcharacteristics.Eventherelationoftheseismicsignaltotheactualsizeofthe
explosionisuncertain.Buttherearesomehintsaboutthetestssignificanceforproliferationthatthepress,initseagernesstodismissNorth
Koreasclaimthatitdetonatedahydrogenweapon,seemstohavemissed.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)
SoutheastAsia
Theoutcomeofthesecongressesisusuallysettledmonthsinadvance,butaprotractedspatbetweenfactionsloyaltoMr.DungandMr.Trong
hasresultedinlast-minutemaneuvering.WhoevercomesoutontopcoulddeterminethefutureofVietnamscarefullycalibratedstrategicbalance
betweenChina,itsideologicalallyandmaintradingpartner,andtheUnitedStates,whichthepartyeliteincreasinglyconsidersanimportant
counterweightagainstgrowingChineseinfluenceintheregion.NewYorkTimes
ElectionbattlesinthePhilippinesarentjustfoughtoverwhogetsthemostvotes,butalsowhogetstoparticipate,withoneoftheleading
candidatesforthisyearspresidentialrace,GracePoe,waitingfortheSupremeCourttodecidewhethersheiseligibletoleadthecountry.Wall
MyanmararmychiefMinAungHlaingnominatedmilitaryofficers,whoholdaquarterofseatsinparliament,totheirposts,statemediasaidon
Tuesday,anotherstepbythearmyinwhathassofarsurprisedmanyasaremarkablypeacefultransition.-Reuters
ChinaaccusedthePhilippinesonTuesdayofdeliberatelytryingtoscarepeoplebysayingChinahadwarnedasmallcivilianplanecarrying
PhilippineofficialsitwastrespassingastheyinspectedanislandinthedisputedSouthChinaSea.-Reuters
Australia
PresidentBarackObamaiswelcominghisfirstforeignleaderofthenewyear,AustralianPrimeMinisterMalcolmTurnbull,fortalksthatwillcover
theIslamicStatemilitantgroupanda12-nationPacificRimtradeagreementthatincludestheircountries.AssociatedPress
ReturntoTop
Security
Cybersecurity
Cyberattackswagedagainstthenation'scriticalmanufacturingsectornearlydoubledinfiscalyear2015,governmentexpertssaidinanewreport.
WashingtonTimes
ReturntoTop
Russia/Europe
Ukraine
WhenafriendinKyivcalledIsraeli-AmericanfilmmakerEvgenyAfineevskyinNovember2013andconvincedhimtodropeverythingandtakehis
camerastoUkrainebecause"somethingwashappening"there,hehadnoideawhathewasgettinghimselfinto,letalonethatitwouldleadtoan
Oscarnomination.RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty
TheEuropeanUnionpressedUkraineauthoritiesonMondaytoovercomepoliticalfeudingandimplementpromisedreformsasitlookstoshore
upthecountry'sdemocraticandeconomiccredentials.-Reuters
AndersAslundwrites:Ukrainiansarerighttocomplain.Outputhasslumped,whilepriceshaveskyrocketedastheexchangeratehasplummeted.
Thecountryismuchpoorer.Thedominantconcernsarethatcorruptionhasnotdiminishedandpublicserviceshavenotimproved.Nevertheless,
thepreviousachievementslistedaboveindicatewhatremainstobedoneandwhatthecountry'sprioritiesshouldbein2016.AtlanticCouncil
Russia
Kara-MurzaalsobelieveshispoisoningmayhavebeenanactofrevengeforhislobbyingforU.S.sanctionsagainstRussianofficialsunderthe
MagnitskyAct,namedforSergeiMagnitsky,awhistleblowingRussianlawyerwhodiedinaMoscowjailin2009afteraccusingofficialsoflarge-
scalefraud.RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty
TheRussianStateDumaCommitteeonConstitutionalLegislationandState-Buildinghasdeclinedtoendorseacontroversialdraftbillthatwould
introducefinesandarrestsforpeoplewhopubliclyexpresstheirhomosexuality.RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty
Russiasrublecurrency,batteredbyfallingglobaloilprices,hasdroppedtoitslowestvalueoncurrencyexchangemarketsinmorethanayear.
RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty
France
ThegroupsformationunderscoreshowtheU.S.andFrenchhaveexpandedtheirrelationshipastheU.S.-ledcoalitionagainsttheIslamicState
preparesforanexpansionofthewar.OnTuesday,Carterwillembarkonamulti-daytriptoEuropethatincludesmeetingsinPariswithdefense
ministersfromthecountriesprovidingsomeofthemostsignificantcontributionstothemilitarycampaign:France,Australia,Germany,Italy,the
NetherlandsandBritainWashingtonPostsCheckpoint
MorethanayearaftertheterrorattacksonCharlieHebdoandaPariskoshersupermarket,thevictimsrelativesarestilldemandinganswerson
whetherorhowFrancesgovernmentandsecurityforcesfailed.-Politico
Germany
JosefJoffewrites:Youcanthaveopenbordersandamunificentwelfarestate.Somethinghastogive.SinceevenMightyMerkelcannotoverturn
ancientdispensations,shewillinevitablyslipintoNo,wecantandcloseborders,astheSwedesandDaneshavedone.High-mindedness
stopsattheballotbox.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)
JohnVinocurwrites:Thechancellornowfacesasocietythatisgaggingontherealizationthatotherone-timepillarsofnationalprobityhave
crackedfortheworldtoseeDeutscheBankwithits$2.5billionfinebyU.S.regulatorslastyearforraterigging,andVolkswagen,facingmassive
lawsuitsafteracknowledgingitfakeditscarsemission-controlcapabilities.Byitsownstandards,Germanyisreeling.AngelaMerkelnolonger
hasthecountryfullyinhergrasp.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)
Europe
TheEuropeanUnionandtheU.S.areracingtomeetadeadlineonanewcommercialdata-sharingaccordtoreplaceonestruckdownbytheEU
lastyearbecauseofconcernsoverAmericansurveillancepractices.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)
AspresidentoftheEuropeanCouncilthegrouprepresentingtheEuropeanUnionsoften-clashing28leadersDonaldTuskisforever
promotingabalancebetweennationalsovereigntyononehandandcommonvaluesandgoalsontheother.OnMonday,hischallengewas
especiallypersonal.NewYorkTimes
[T]hedozensofmembersoftheBritishParliamentwhospentanextraordinarythreehoursMondaydebatingaboutthefront-runnerforthe
RepublicannominationforU.S.presidentdidnotbanDonaldTrump.WashingtonPost
NATO
PolandwantsNATOtoagreetodeploy'substantial'numbersofforcesandequipmentincentralandeasternEuropetoensuretheregion'ssecurity
inthefaceofamoreaggressiveRussia,PresidentAndrzejDudasaidonMonday.-Reuters
ReturntoTop
Americas
LatinAmerica
Justweeksbeforelawmakerswillconsiderherfate,BrazilianPresidentDilmaRousseffisdesperatelytryingtodemonstratethatsheisstillin
chargeofSouthAmerica'smostpopulousnation.WashingtonTimes
PresidentDilmaRousseff'sopponentswithinhermaincoalitionpartner,thefractiousBrazilianDemocraticMovementParty(PMDB),arelosing
hopethattheycanimpeachtheleftistleaderandreplaceherwiththeirman,VicePresidentMichelTemer.-Reuters
AnagreementtobuildoiltankersinIranforVenezuelahasbeenleftinlimboyearsafteritwasannouncedasWesternsanctionsplus
disagreementsoverpaymentsanddeliverytermstooktheirtoll,sourcesfamiliarwiththemattersay.-Reuters
TobyDershowitzandJosephHumirewrite:Thepost-dealinfluxofinternationalinvestmenttoIranwillsurelychallengeMacriseffortstocurb
Tehransinfluenceathome.Sofar,hehasshownheisuptothistask.ItisimperativethattheU.S.andotherfriendlygovernmentshelpthenew
Argentinepresidentasheseekstorighthiscountrysjudicialintegrity,aneffortforwhichAlbertoNismangavehislifetoprotect.TheHill
ReturntoTop
TheFPIOvernightBriefisadailyproductoftheForeignPolicyInitiative,whichseekstopromoteanactiveU.S.foreignpolicycommittedto
robustsupportfordemocraticallies,humanrights,astrongAmericanmilitaryequippedtomeetthechallengesofthe21stcentury,and
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INTHISISSUE
*KremlincreatesdubiousopeninginUkrainepeacenegotiations
*whileRussiasgovernmentcracksdownonCircassiansettlersfromTurkey
*ItalybalksatproposedGerman-RussianNordStreamTwogaspipeline

RussiaBargainsandBluffsforBreakthroughinUkraine

Formonths,thevariousnegotiationsformatsonconflictmanagementinUkraineappeared
deadlocked.Butsuddenly,inmid-January2016,signsofabreakthroughinthemakinghave
multipliedbringingbothhopesandconcernstoallthepartiesinvolved.Themostmeaningful
ofthesesignswasUnitedStatesPresidentBarackObamastelephonecalltoRussian
PresidentVladimirPutinlastWednesday(January13),inwhichUkrainewasthestartingtopic
oftheopenandbusiness-likeconversation(Rbc.ru,January13).Thefollow-upcameon
Friday,inthemeetingbetweenAssistantUSSecretaryofStateVictoriaNulandandPutins
aideVladislavSurkov,inacozypresidentialresidenceintheKaliningradregion
(Kommersant,January15).Surkovdescribedthesix-hour-longmeetingasabrainstorm.
AndwhilehisofficialstatusislowandthelistofhisrivalsintheKremlinisquitelong,Surkov
isindeedapersonwhocaninventcomplexcompromisesandthensellthemtohisboss.

PutinparticularlywantstobeabletonegotiatethefateofUkrainedirectlywithWashington.
RegardlessofanyconcessionstheKremlinmightbeforcedtomakeasaresultofthesetalks,
suchabilateralformatwouldservetoupliftRussiasinternationalstatusevenif,inarecent
interviewfortheGermantabloidBild,PutindeniedRussianambitionstoregaintherankofa
superpower(MoskovskyKomsomolets,January12).Moscowcertainlykeepsthe
conversationswithBerlinandParisgoingbutexpectsthemonlytoaddvarnishtothedeal
agreedwithWashington.Andbesides,theKremlinassumesthatEuropeissopreoccupied
withitsdomesticdisorderthatithaslittletimeforUkraine(Gazeta.ru,January14).

VladimirPutinknowsthatUkrainesPresidentPetroPoroshenkoisunpopularandbesieged
byanoppositionangryaboutRussianintrigues.Therefore,Putinhasappointedhislong-time
loyalsubordinateBorisGryzlovasRussiasrepresentativeintheContactGroupforUkraine
andsenthimwithamessagetoPresidentPoroshenkoprimarilyinordertoputtheUkrainian
leaderinatightpoliticalcorner(NezavisimayaGazeta,January15).Insodoing,theRussian
headofstateexploitstheContractGroupnegotiatingchanneltopresentUkraineasmiredin
discordanddecline(Polit.ru,January16).
Theneedtoscoreafewtacticalpointscomesfromtheinescapabledomesticimperativefor
RussiatoacceptthefailureofthehybridwaragainstUkraineandtorelinquishcontrolover
theoccupiedenclaveintheDonetskandLuhanskregions.Putinneedstomakethisdealfast,
whileObamacontinuestoconsiderhimaseriousstake-holderintheSyrianwarandkeeps
opentheoptionofliftingsanctionsagainstRussia(Rbc.ru,January16).Thefateofthepuppet
rebelregimesineasternUkrainesDonbasregionapparentlymatterlittletotheKremlin.The
governmentsoftheDonetskandLuhanskpeoplesrepublicsarenotinvitedtooreven
informedabouttheclosed-doornegotiationstheyareonlyusedforbreakingtheceasefirein
ordertoproduceextraurgencyinstrikingadeal(Rosbalt,January16).Abandoningthefailed
projectofNovorossiya,theRussianleadershiphastopretendasuccessofsorts.Sothe
loomingwithdrawalispre-emptivelyeclipsedbybluffs,likeDefenseMinisterSergeiShoigus
promisetodeploythreenewdivisionsinordertocounterthethreatsallegedlycomingfrom
theWest(EzhednevnyZhurnal,January13).
Ayearago,intheheatofthevictoriousbattleoverDebaltseve,Russianconcessionswere
outofthequestion.Butnow,thedisastrousdegradationofitseconomyhascompelledRussia
toreturntothenegotiatingtable.ProfessionaldiscussionsattheGaidarForuminMoscowlast
weekpaintedthepictureofafailureofstatecontrolandanuncheckeddownwardtrend,even
ifmostliberaleconomistsweredeniedthechancetospeak(NovayaGazeta,January14).
PrimeMinisterDmitryMedvedevtriedtoshifttheblameontheglobalvolatilityandthehostile
actionsofWesternpartners.ButitwasGermanGref,theheadofSberbank,whoproduced
thestrongestresonancewiththeacknowledgementthattheoilagewasovermoreover,he
concludedthatRussiawasaloserinthecompetitionandadownshifterstate(Newsru.com,
January15).Theonlypositivemessagefromthegovernmentministerswasthatnomajor
mistakesweremadesincethearrivaloftherecessioninthelate2014butthatwasprimarily
becausenocoherentanti-crisispolicywasdeveloped(MoscowEcho,January15).
TheKremlinexpectsitshard-givenconcessionsoneasternUkrainetobereciprocatedbythe
Westwithacancelationofthesanctionsregime.However,itisfarfromcertainthata
relaxationofsectoralsanctionswouldrescuetheinvestment-starvedRussianeconomy.The
explorationanddevelopmentofgreenoilandgasfieldsinEasternSiberiaandtheArcticis
hamperednotonlybythelackofaccesstomoderntechnologiesbutalsobythesustained
declineofprices,whichiscertaintocurtailtheinflowofpetro-revenuesforyearstocome
(Slon.ru,January15).PersonalsanctionsthatpreventmanyRussianofficials,includingSurkov
andGryzlov,fromtravelingtotheWest,areunlikelytobelifted,andtheyarereinforcedby
manyrecentinvestigationsintotheexportofRussiancorruption,includingmostrecentlythe
dopingscandalintheInternationalAssociationofAthleticsFederations(IAAF),inwhich
Putinispersonallyimplicated(Kommersant,January15).TheUkrainianleadershipispushing
hardthecaseoftheannexationofCrimea,whichshouldnotbeforgottenevenifRussia
indeedwithdrawsitstroopsfromtheoccupiedterritoriesineasternUkraine(Rbc.ru,January
14).
ItisstillunclearwhethertheKremlinisindeedreadyforacompleteretreatfromthewar-
devastatedDonbas,whichhasnoeconomicvalueforRussiaandincursheavypolitical,
financialandmilitarycosts.Theideathatmakessuchanabandonmentagreeableisthat
Ukrainewouldhavetobeartheburdenofrebuildingthiswarzoneandwouldalsoreceivea
bouquetofcomplexpoliticalproblemsthatcouldmakeitsunrulypoliticsungovernable.The
RussianpropagandamachinehasalreadyswitchedofftheNovorossiyathemeandfocuses
ontheSyrian/Turkishtopicshowever,thesetopicsareincreasinglyovershadowedin
Russiansmindsbytheeverydayexperienceoffast-risingpoverty.Putincannotdispelthe
specterofdegradationandcannotshowweaknessbyyieldingtotheWesternpressurein
Ukraine.Hisoptionsforcoveringaretreatwithyetanotherspectacularpowerprojection
enterpriseinRussiasmulti-regionalneighborhoodarelimited,andthebenefitsofunleashinga
waveofrepressionsagainstdomesticenemiesofthepeoplearedubious.Hebothneedsa
confrontationwiththeWestandcannotafforditbutRussiasneighborsshouldnotcounton
himbeingparalyzedintoinactionbytheseself-madetraps.
--PavelK.Baev
CircassianActivistsProtestDeportationofCircassiansWithTurkishCitizenship
TheRussiangovernmenthasstartedtargetingCircassiansfromTurkeywhohavesettledinthe
NorthCaucasus,angeringlocalCircassians.Eventhewell-knownRussianloyalistAsker
Sokht,aCircassianactivistfromKrasnodarregion,raisedthealarm,sayingthatCircassian
settlersfromTurkeyinKabardino-BalkariahavestartedreceivinglettersfromtheRussian
FederalMigrationServiceofficiallyannullingtheirlegalresidenceintheRussianFederation.
SokhtcalledtheseattemptsanothermassdeportationofCircassiansfromtheirhistorical
homeland.Headdedthatundermade-uppretextandtakingadvantageofthetense
Russian-Turkishrelations,[someforces]aremakinganattempttodeportenmasseCircassian
compatriotswhohaveforyearslivedinRussiabacktoTurkey.Sokhtcalledonthe
republicanauthoritiesinKabardino-BalkariaandthefederalauthoritiesinMoscowtostopthe
campaignofdeportations(Yuga.ru,January14),asifthecampaignwasstartedbysomeone
otherthantheauthoritiesthemselves.
Russian-TurkishrelationssouredlastNovemberafterTurkeydownedaRussianwarplanethat
wasbombinganti-governmentforcesinSyria.TheTurkishauthoritiessaidthattheRussian
planewasdownedafteritcrossedintoTurkishairspace.Ananti-Turkishpubliccampaign
followedinRussia,withPresidentPutinvowingtopunishTurkeyandissuingtwodecrees
imposingsanctionsonthecountry,includinganendtothevisafreeregimeandimport/export
operationsbetweenthetwocountriesaswellasrestrictionontheactivitiesofTurkish
businesses.Ironically,RussiaissodependentonTurkishconstructionandsomeother
companiesespeciallysincetheWestimposedsanctionsoverUkrainethattheRussian
governmentisnowpreparingtobacktrackandliftsanctionsagainstselectTurkishfirms
(DeutscheWelleRussianservice,January15).
ThehistoryofCircassiansettlersfromTurkeyintheNorthCaucasusdatesbacktothe19th
century,whentheRussianEmpireexpandedinseveraldirections,conqueringanddestroying
statesandnations.WhentheRussianimperialarmiesdealtthefinalblowtoCircassianforces
nearwhatisnowthecityofSochiontheBlackSea,theRussianauthoritiesquicklysetoutto
altertheethnicmapofthearea.TheCircassianpopulationthatremainedwasdeportedtothe
OttomanEmpire,manywerestarvedtodeathandonlyaminoritywasallowedtostayintheir
homeland.AftertheendoftheColdWar,someCircassiansfromTurkeystartedreturningto
theirhistoricalhomelandintheNorthCaucasus.HundredsresettledinKabardino-Balkaria
andAdygea,buttheauthoritiesnevermadetheprocesseasyforCircassianswhowishedto
return.
OnJanuary14,theFederationofCaucasianOrganizationsofTurkey(KAFFED)saiditwas
callingforanextraordinaryconferenceoftheInternationalCircassianAssociation(ICA),an
organizationcreatedbytheRussiansecurityservicesintheearly1990s,whichsoughtto
regulatetiesbetweenforeignCircassiandiasporagroupsandCircassiansintheNorth
Caucasus.KAFFEDsaiditwasalarmedbythemountingproblemsofCircassianreturnees
fromTurkeyintheNorthCaucasus,whoarefacingincreasedpressureconnectedto
deterioratingRussian-Turkishrelations(Caucasreview.com,January15).However,theICA
itselfhasbeencriticizedbymanyCircassianactivistsforitscomplacencyandlackofwillto
defendCircassianinterests.Hence,anextraordinarymeetingofICAisunlikelytochange
thesituation.
AccordingtotheRussianFederalMigrationService(FBS)inKabardino-Balkaria,90
Turkishcitizenscurrentlyhavetemporaryresidencepermitsand104Turkishcitizenshave
permanentresidencepermits.In2015,theFMSregistered936newarrivalsfromTurkeyand
removed859fromtheirregistry.Theauthoritiesclaimthatonly7outof26peoplewhohad
theirresidencypermitsannulledwereethnicCircassians.Theauthoritiesaccusedthe
Circassianrepatriatesofviolatingtherulesofregistration(propiska),whicharenotoriously
hardtonavigateevenfornativeRussianscitizens.Thereturneesreportedlywerenotlivingat
theaddresseswheretheywereregistered.RegistrationinRussiaisnotsimplyaboutnotifying
theauthoritieswhereoneresides,butaboutreceivingpermissiontoresideataspecificplace,
andtheprocessofreceivingsuchpermissionisrifewithcorruption.ValeryKhatazhukov,a
rightsactivistfromKabardino-Balkaria,calledonthegovernoroftherepublic,YuriKokov,to
stopthedeportationofCircassianreturneesfromTurkey,butthegovernordidnotrespond
(KavkazskyUzel,January15).
Meanwhile,RussianexpertsputKabardino-BalkariaatthebottomofthelistofRussian
regionsrankedbytheiroverallstability.Expertsnotethelowinvestmentactivityinthe
republic,thecontinuingcampaignofpublickillings,andtheslumpininvestmentinhuman
capital(Onkavkaz.com,January14).Circassianactiviststhemselvesnotethatmanyofthe
CircassianrefugeesfromSyriawhomadeittoRussiaandtheNorthCaucasuseventually
chosetoemigratetoEuropeoratleasttrytodosoratherthanremainintheregion.The
activistssayitisanalarmingsignforKabardino-BalkariaandotherCircassian-populated
republicsthattheircompatriotspreferEuropetotheirownhomeland.Outoftheestimated
3,000CircassianSyrianswhoarrivedinRussia,40percent,orabout1,200individuals,
continuedontoEurope(Ekhokavkaza,January15).
Giventhecurrentconditions,withlifeintheNorthCaucasusnotanattractiveoptionevenfor
manyCircassianrefugeesfromSyria,theTurkishCircassiansarenotbeingdeportedbecause
thereisanoverflowofrefugees.Instead,itappearsthattheRussianauthoritiesareusingthe
deteriorationinrelationswithTurkeytosettlescoreswithCircassianactivists,whohave
pushedforthereturnofwillingCircassianstotheirhistoricalhomelandintheNorthCaucasus.
--ValeryDzutsati
GermanyIsRealTargetofItalysOppositiontoRussiasPlannedNordStreamTwo
AuniquecoalitionistakingshapeinEuropeagainstGerman-Russianplanstodoublethe
NordStreamnaturalgaspipeline.Italyhasjoinedagroupofcountries,mostlyfromCentral-
EasternEurope,inopposingtheimplementationofthisenergyproject,whichisspearheaded
byRussiasstate-rungasmonopolyGazprom.Untilnow,someeasternEuropeanUnion
membersstates,includingtheBaltics(Lithuania,LatviaandEstonia)andPolandcountries
particularlysensitivetoRussianmovestoreassertgeopoliticalinfluenceovertheformerSoviet
spacehadfrequentlyaccusedRomeofnotstandingfirmlyenoughagainstMoscows
aggressiveforeignpolicy.
NordStreamrunsundertheBalticSeaandconnectsVyborg,inRussia,withGreifswald,in
Germany.Itsprojectedexpansion(alsoknownasNordStreamTwo)shouldbecompleted
by2019,doublingtheexistingpipelinenetworkscurrentcapacityof55billioncubicmeters
(bcm)ofgas.OpponentstoNordStreamsupgrade,includingtheUnitedStates,arguethat
theinitiativemaybegeopoliticallydangerousforEurope.WithNordStreamTwoupand
running,Russiamight,infactrely,ontheBalticSeacorridortocircumventpolitically
unfriendlyneighborsinEasternEuropenotleastUkraineandsupplygasdirectlyto
GermanyandWesternEurope(seeEDM,September15,17,21,2015).

DuringthelastEUsummit,inmid-December2015,EuropeanCouncilPresidentDonaldTusk
bluntlystatedthatNordStreamTwoposedaproblemforEuropesenergypolicy(Reuters
Italia,December18,2015).AccordingtodatafromtheEuropeanCommission,whichTusk
citedatthetime,ifNordStreamTwoweretobedeveloped,itwouldincreasethecontinents
dependenceononesupplierandconcentrate80-percentofRussiangasimportsintoone
Europe-boundroute(Ansa,December21,2015).
ItalyandotherEUcountriescontendthatGermanyisopportunisticallybreachingtherulesof
theEUsThirdEnergyPackage,whichmaintainsthatonecompanyinthiscaseGazprom
cannotownboththepipelineandthegasbeingpipedthroughit.ItalianPrimeMinisterMatteo
RenziraisedtheissueattheEUmeetinglastDecember.Onthatoccasion,hehighlightedthat
thedoublingofNordStreamwouldundercutEuropesmuch-trumpetedquestforenergy
securityinparticular,thediversificationofsuppliersandroutes(Ansa,December19,2015).
ApartfromthelegalbasisoftheNordStreamTwoinitiative,Renzialsowarnedofits
geopoliticalimplications.IntheItalianprimeministerswords,theexpansionofNordStream
contradictsEuropescurrentsanctionspolicyagainstRussia.Yet,ItalysprotestsagainstNord
StreamTwoarenotreallyaboutRomesrelationswithMoscow,whichremainsanimportant
politicalandeconomicpartnerfortheItaliangovernment.Rather,itisallaboutthebalanceof
powerwithintheEU.PrimeMinisterRenziistryingtochallengeBerlinsexcessivepowerin
theEuropeanbloc,notablyoverthehandlingofthecontinentaleconomyandtheimmigration
crisis.AndItalysallegationsofGermanysself-interesteddoublestandardstowardRussia
havesouredrelationsbetweenthetwoEuropeancountries(CorrieredellaSera,December
18,2015).
GermanywasattheforefrontofagroupofEUcountriesthatpushedagainsttheconstruction
oftheSouthStreampipeline,aGazprom-ledinitiativetotransportRussiangasfromtheBlack
SeacoasttoEuropebyoutflankingUkraine,whichtheKremlinscrappedlatein2014.Italy
believesthatGermanyexploitedtheEUThirdEnergyPackagetoderailSouthStream
because,atitscore,thisprojectwasaproductofthepartnershipbetweentheItalianstate-
ownedoilandgasproducerENIandGazprom(RT,December16,2015).SomeItalian
observersbelievethattherealizationofSouthStreamcouldhaveturnedtheItalianPeninsula
intoakeytransitpointforRussiannaturalgas,somethingthatwouldhavecollidedwith
GermanyseffortstobecometheonlyenergyhubinEuropeforgascomingfromRussia
(CorrieredellaSera,December19,2015).
ItalyiscurrentlyworkingtotransformitselfintoatransitcountrytoredirecttoNorthernand
WesternEuropegassuppliescomingfromtheCaucasusandtheMediterranean.Inthis
regard,RomeisincreasingitsparticipationintheSouthernGasCorridor(SGC),aplanned
systemofpipelinestobringnaturalgasfromtheAzerbaijanigasfieldofShahDeniztoItaly
viaGeorgia,Turkey,GreeceandAlbania.AndtheSGCcouldbepotentiallyextendedto
channelIranianandTurkmenistanigas.
ItalyssouthernborderisexpectedtobetheentrypointofgaspipedtoWesternEurope
throughtheSGCswesternmostsection,theTrans-AdriaticPipeline(TAP).LastDecember,
ItalysenergyfirmSNAM,whichiscontrolledbytheItalianTreasury,boughtfromNorways
Statoila20-percentstakeintheTAPconsortium.TAPwillcarry10bcmofAzerbaijanigasto
Europeby2018,withtheprobabilityofdoublingsuppliesinthefuture(Repubblica,
December17,2015).
GermanysChancellorAngelaMerkelhasbeendefendinghergovernmentsenergypolicy,
assertingthatthedoublingofNordStreamissimplyaneconomicopportunityforGermanand
Russianenterprises:aninitiativethatdoesnotharboranyunderlyinggeopoliticaldesigns(RT,
December18,2015).AccordingtoRussiaspermanentrepresentativetotheEU,Vladimir
Chizhov,theThirdPackagedoesnotlegallyapplytoNordStreamTwobecauseitwillbean
offshorepipelinerunningthroughinternationalwaters(TASS,December24,2015).
ItseemsthattheKremlinisworkinghardtopaperoverItalyandGermanysdisagreement
overtheexpansionofNordStream.RussiablamestheattemptstosinkNordStreamTwo
onlyontheBaltics,theVisegradFour(aloosepoliticalgroupingoftheCzechRepublic,
Hungary,PolandandSlovakia),UkraineandtheUS,whilenevermentioningItaly(Sputnik
News,January4).Meanwhile,Romehasrepeatedlycalledforaneasingofsanctionson
Russia,withPrimeMinisterRenziquestioningtheirautomaticrenewal,albeitinvain(see
EDM,December17,2015).
Assuch,MoscowcouldbeexpectedtofavorRomesentryintotheproject,whosecurrent
EuropeanparticipantsincludeGermanysE.ONandBASF,RoyalDutchShell,Austrias
OMVandFrancesEngie(CorrieredellaSera,January10).However,ENIhasimmediately
deniedreportsaboutitspossibleparticipationinNorthStreamTwo,concedingonlythat
Saipem,itspipe-layingsubsidiarycompany,couldjointheprojectasasimplecontractorfor
theunderseapipelineconstructionwork(Eastonline,January15).Furthermore,theItalian
governmenthasreiteratedthatithasnoplantoencouragetheexpansionofNorthStreamand
thatitisinsteadfocusedonsettingupaMediterraneangashub(ReutersItalia,January14).
Thus,despiteanyRussianattemptstobridgethegulfbetweenRomeandBerlinoverthe
doublingofNordStream,theItaliancabinetappearsdeterminedtocarryoutits
confrontationalstancevis--visGermany.
--EmanueleScimia
Forward ReadLater
States.
disputes.
111116thSt.,NW
Suite#320
Washington,DC20036
202-483-8888(phone)
202-483-8337(fax)
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 01/18/201604:05:50AM
To: RobertNurick<nurickrc@yahoo.com>
Subject: WalterRussellMead--AndrewJackson,Revenant-TheAmericanInterest
http://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/01/17/andrew-jackson-revenant/
AndrewJackson,Revenant
NotsincehefoughtwithNicholasBiddleoverthefutureoftheBankoftheUnitedStateshasAndrewJacksonbeenthis
controversialorthiscentralinAmericanpoliticallife.Jacksonianpopulism,thesenseofhonor-drivenegalitarianismand
fierynationalismthatdroveAmericanpoliticsformanyyears,hasneverbeenhatedandreviledasoftenasitistoday,and
manyAmericanacademicsandintellectuals(tosaynothingofHollywoodicons)areclosetodemandingthatJacksonian
sentimentberedefinedasahatecrime.
ForPresidentBarackObamaandhispoliticalalliesinparticular,JacksonianAmericaisthefatherofallevils.Jacksonians
arewhothethenSenatorhadinmindwhen,inthecampaignof2008,hespokeofthebitterclingersholdingontotheir
gunsandtheirBibles.Theyarethesourceoftheforeignpolicyinstinctshemostdeplores,supportingIsraelalmost
reflexively,demandingoverwhelmingresponsetoterrorattacks,agitatingfortightimmigrationcontrols,resistingdiplomacy
withIranandNorthKorea,supportingGuantanamo,cynicalabouttheUN,skepticalofclimatechange,andwillingtouse
enhancedinterrogationagainstterroristsinarmsagainsttheUnitedStates.
Hehatestheirinstinctsathome,too.ItisJacksonianswho,asIwroteinSpecialProvidencebackin2001,seetheSecond
AmendmentasthefoundationofandsecurityforAmericanfreedom.ItisJacksonianswhomostresentillegalimmigration,
dontwanttosubsidizetheurbanpoor,supportaggressivepolicingandlongprisonsentencesforviolentoffendersandwho
aretheslowesttoevolveonissueslikegaymarriageandtransgenderrights.
Thehateandthedisdaindontspringfromanythingastrivialaspique.Historically,JacksonianAmericahasbeentheenemy
ofmanyofwhatPresidentObama,rightly,seesassomeofAmericasmostimportantadvances.Jacksoniansentiment
embracesaconceptoftheUnitedStatesasafolkcommunityand,overtime,thatfolkcommunitywasgenerallyconstrued
aswhitesonly.LynchlawandJimCrowweremanifestationsofJacksoniancommunalism,andtherearefewexamplesof
race,religiousorethnicprejudiceinwhichJacksonianAmericahasntindulged.Jacksonianshavecomealongwayon
race,buttheywillnevermovefarenoughandfastenoughforliberalopinionliberalsaremovingtoo,andarebecoming
angrierandmoreexactingregardlessofJacksonianprogress.
Justasbad,intheviewofthePresidentandhisallies,Jacksoniansdonthavemuchrespectfortheeducatedandthe
credentialed.LikeWilliamF.Buckley,theywouldratherbegovernedbythefirst100namesinthephonebookthanbythe
Harvardfaculty.Theyloathetheinterferingbusybodiesoftheprogressivestate,believethatgovernment(exceptforthe
policeandthemilitary)isanecessaryevil,thinkmostexpertsanduniversityprofessorsarenosmarterorwiserthanother
people.andfeelonlycontemptforthegendertheoristsandthesocialjusticewarriorsofthecontemporaryclassroom.
VirtuallyeverythingaboutprogressivepoliticstodayisaboutliquidatingtheJacksonianinfluenceinAmericanlife.From
immigrationpolicy,toutedasendingtheerawhenAmericanwhiteswerethepopulationoftheUnitedStates,togunpolicy
andtoregulatorypolicy,PresidentObamaandhiscoalitionaimtocrushwhatJacksonianslove,empowerwhattheyfear,
andexaltwhattheyhate.
JacksonianAmericaismanythingswellorganizedisntoneofthem.Jacksoniansarefoundinbothpoliticalpartiesmost
arehabituallyindifferenttonationalpolitics,seeingallpoliticiansasequallycorrupt,equallyuseless.OtherthantheNRA,
therearenotmanynationalorganizationsorganizedaroundthepromotionofaJacksonianagenda.Intheworldofthink
tanksandelitemedia,theJacksonianvoiceisseldomheardandneverheeded.
ItishardforJacksonianstomobilizepolitically.NeitherpartyreallyembracesaJacksonianagenda.Combiningasuspicion
ofWallStreet,ahatredoftheculturalleft,aloveofmiddleclassentitlementprograms,andafearoffreetrade,Jacksonian
AmericahasproblemswithbothRepublicanandDemocraticagendas.AnyJacksonianpoliticalmovementwillstartasa
partyinsurgency,andtheJacksonianswillonthewholebelesswellfunded,lessexperiencedandlessinstitutionally
powerfulthantheirpartyopponents.Jacksoniansareneitherliberalnorconservativeinthewaysthatpoliticalelitesuse
thosetermstheyareradicallyegalitarian,radicallypro-middleclass,radicallypatriotic,radicallypro-SocialSecurity.They
arenot,undernormalcircumstances,joinersinpoliticstheyareindividualistswhoorganizeinresponsetothreats,andtheir
individualismgoestotheirstandsonwhatoutsiderssometimesthinkarethesocialissuesthatunitethem.
ManyJacksonians,forexample,arenotevangelicalsandnotevenChristianatall.Whilesomearestronglyanti-abortion,
othersbelievethatindividualfreedommakesabortionnobodysbusinessbuttheirown.Somestandstronglybehindthedrug
warmanyindulgeinrecreationaldrugsandsomeJacksoniansgrowormanufacturethem,muchlikethemoonshinerswho
havebeenevadingrevenuerssincetheWashingtonadministration.
TheresanotherobstacleinthefaceofaJacksonianrising:JacksonianshavebeenhardhitbythechangesintheAmerican
economy.Thesecureworkingclasswagesthatunderpinnedtwogenerationsofrisingaffluenceforthewhite(and
minority)industrialworkingclasshavedisappeared.ThatisntjustaboutmoneythecoherenceofJacksoniancommunities
andfamilylifehasbeenseriouslyimpaired.ThesearethepointsCharlesMurraymakesinhisharrowingComingApart:The
StateofWhiteAmerica,1960-2010theyhavebeenrecentlyreinforcedbystudiesdocumentingaholocaustoflowerand
lowermiddleclasswhites.
Thesedevastatingchanges,utterlyignoredbyanuppermiddleclassintellectualandculturalestablishmentthatnotso
secretlyhopesforademographicchangeinAmericathatwillfinallymarginalizeuncredentialedwhitepeopleonceandfor
all,makeJacksoniansangryandfrustrated,buttheyalsomakeithardertodevelopanorganizedpoliticalstrategyin
responsetosomeoftheworstandmostdangerousconditionsfacedbyanymajorAmericandemographicgrouptoday.
Stronginnumbers(thoughnotamajority),awakeningtoanewsenseofangerandendangerment,Jacksoniansarestill
gropingforamovementandaprogram.
WhatweareseeinginAmericanpoliticstodayisaJacksoniansurge.ItisnotyetarevolutiononthescaleofOldHickorys
movementthattransformedAmericanpoliticsforageneration.SucharevolutionmaynotbepossibleintodaysAmerica,
andinanycasethecurrentwaveofJacksonianactivismandconsciousnessisstillinanearlyandsomewhatincoherent
phase.Inthepast,moderateleadersonthecenterleftandcenterrightalikehavefoundwaystocaptureJacksonianenergy.
FDRwasabletostealthedemagogicenergyofHueyLongRichardNixonmarginalizedGeorgeWallaceevenashe
respondedtosomeofWallacesconcernsaboutbussingandcrime.(Hedidnot,however,givewaytoWallaceonthecore
issueofracialequality.)
DonaldTrump,fornow,isservingasakindofblankscreenonwhichJacksoniansprojecttheirhopes.Proposinghimself
asastrongleaderwhogetsAmericabutisaboveparty,TrumpappealstoJacksonianideasaboutleadership.Trumps
JacksonianappealhaslefttheRepublicanPartyindeepdisarray,demonstratingthegulfbetweencontemporaryconservative
ideologyandJacksoniannationalism.Indeed,oneofthereasonsthatTrumphasntbeenhurtbyattacksthathighlighthis
lackoflongtermcommitmenttotheboilerplateconservativeagenda(eitherinthesocialoreconomicconservativevariant)
isthatJacksonianvotersarelessdogmaticandlessconservativethansomeoftheirwould-bepoliticalrepresentativescare
toacknowledge.JacksonianslikeSocialSecurityandMedicaremuchmorethanmostRepublicanintellectuals,andtheylike
immigrationandfreetrademuchless.
WhateverhappenstotheTrumpcandidacy,itnowseemsclearthatJacksonianAmericaisrousingitselftofightforits
identity,itscultureanditsprimacyinacountrythatitbelievesitshouldown.Itsculturalvalueshavebeentraduced,its
economicinterestsdisregarded,anditsfutureasthecenterofgravityofAmericanpoliticallifeisunderattack.Overseas,it
seestraditionalrivalslikeRussia,China,NorthKoreaandIranmakingheadwayagainstaPresidentthatitdistrustsmore
troublingstill,inISISandjihaditerroritseestherapidspreadofamovementaimingatthemassmurderofAmericans.
JacksonianAmericahaslostallconfidenceinthewillortheabilityofthepoliticalestablishmenttofightthethreatsitsees
abroadandathome.Itwantswhatithasalwayswanted:totakeitsfutureintoitsownhands.
ThebiggeststoryinAmericanpoliticstodayisthis:AndrewJacksonismadashell,andhesnotgoingtotakeitanymore.
Senttime: 01/13/201608:47:00AM
Subject: FW:"TurkeydetainsthreeRUSSIANSafter[massive]Istanbulbombing,"themoscowtimes.com,1/13
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Wednesday,January13,20168:47AM
Subject:"TurkeydetainsthreeRUSSIANSafter[massive]Istanbulbombing,"themoscowtimes.com,1/13
And:RussiamustcutspendingorsufferFINANCIALCRASHFinanceminister[AntonSILUANOV],
themoscowtimes.com,1/13
And:Afallenoligarch[VladimirYAKUNIN]sendswarningtorestofPutininsiders,Bloomberg.com,
1/23
ExrailbosssaysRussiahasnorulingelite,justPutin.Putinsinnercirclewillcontinuetorotate.
RememberwhathappenedtoBorisBEREZOVSKYandVladimirGUSINSKY,hesaid.
And:DonaldTRUMPhaspraisedPutinsfirmleadership,nowheextendsthatpraisetoKIMJONun:
DonaldTrumppraisesKimJongunforhisfirmhandwithexecuteduncle,telegraph./co.uk,1/12
TrumphaspraisedtheleadershipstyleofNorthKoreasdictatorfortheamazingwayhemurders
politicalrivals.
And:RussianCHINESEtradeplummets[by34.4%]in2015,themoscowtimes.com,1/13
And:Herethereisnoplaceforthosewhodisagree,OnthedeathsduringanapparentrecentPURGE
ofseveralcommandersoftheproRussianseparatistsintheDonbass:
http://www.rosbalt.ru/exussr/2016/01/12/1478772.html
And:GarriKASPAROVhassparkedamajordiscussionofthetopicRussiaafterPutincommentsby
YakovGORDON:http://www.svoboda.org/articleprintview/27480245.html
And:YuliyaLATYNINAonRussiasanticyberrevolution,
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/columns/71399.html?print=1
And:UkraineinteltellsOSCEwhereRussianPROXIESkeeptanks,artillery,MRLS,unian.info,1/13
And:Putinsallegedsoninlaw[KirillSHAMALOV,35]isRussiaslatestbillionaire[fortunehas
swelledto$1.2billion]FORBES,themoscowtimes.com,1/13
Senttime: 01/13/201602:50:24PM
To: swallen@1scom.net
LeonidRadzikhovskiyon2016andaperfectstormintheKremlin
Yakuninsendsawarning?
YakuninturnsdowntheofferofaFederationCouncilseat
StanovayaonYakuninandPutin
Putinsreportedson-in-lawShamalovisRussiaslatestdollarbillionaire
RussiaandEconomicTurmoilinChina
Siluanovsaysthegovernmentmustcutspendingorfaceafinancialcrisis
Comment:Radzikhovskiy,whohasacolumninRossiyaskayaGazeta,wrotethisonefortheUkrainianNovoye
VremyaIveoftennotedthatitwouldtakequitealot,aperfectstormofpoliticalandeconomiccrises,todislodge
PuinfromtheKremlin.Wearentthere,buttheelementsofapotentialstormcouldbetakingshape.Itremainstobe
seewhethertheywillcometogetherattherighttimeintherightway,withthe2016-2018electioncycleapproaching,
butwithUralsgradeoilatnearly$30/barrel(seeyesterdaysnotes)andPutin(inhisBildinterview)tryingtoputa
positivespinonthat,astormfrontdoesappeartobeforming.
http://m.nv.ua/opinion/radzihovsky/idealnyj-shtorm-v-kremle-89925.html
TheKremlinfindsitselfinaperfectstormsituation:thecollapseoftheeconomymeansanimpendingpoliticalcollapseaswell.In
2013-2014,vlastexperiencedaforeignpolicyfailurebiggerthanallthefailuresindomesticpoliticsandeconomics.Vlastfinds
itselftrappedinacorner,withnowayout.
Televisioncantturnaneconomicfailureintoaneconomicbreakthrough:peoplecangotothestoreandseetherealprices,they
cangotoworkandseewhatishappeningtotheirwages.
Meanwhile,televisiontranslatesinternationalisolationintoRussianinfluenceonworldaffairs,thefailureinUkraineasprotectingthe
Donbass,thefailurewithChinaasstrengtheningRussiaspositioninEurasia,theEurasianUnion,whichisgoingnowhere,asa
powerfulalliance.ThephraseRussiaspositionintheworldisstrengtheningisnothingbutacollectionofwords.
Wehavenoallies?Well,tohellwiththem,weareRussians,wewillprevail!...Therehasbeenacatastrophicdeclineinforeign
trade?Wehaveimportsubstitution!...
ThecatastropheforPutiniscomingonatjustthatmomentwhenRussianseyesarebeginningtoperceivereality.Putinwilldo
anythingtopreventthathappeninghewillnotwithdrawfromUkraine,hewillnotmakeanexitfromSyria,thoughnobodylikes
thatidioticadventureWherewearebombing,therewillbepeace,thatsthelogicofofficialpropaganda
IfyoudontbuildacompletelyclosedcountrylikeNorthKoreaandPutindoesntwanttodothatandwillnotdoitunderany
circumstancessoonerorlater,realitywilltakehold.Sothisnextyearwillbeaturningpoint
TheyveplayedtheSyriancardandtherearenonewonestoplayRussiahasnotrumpcardnotineconomics,notinculture,
notintechnology,notinanythingrelatedtosoftpowerInthissituation,theonlythingwehavelefttoplayisclaimsthatour
tanksarefaster,andwhataboutourrockets?Wheretousethem?WecanusethemintheMiddleEast,averyexplosiveregion,
butPutinisveryafraidofthat
SomemindlessPutincriticswritethatVVPintendstousenuclearweaponsagainstSaudiArabia.Inacertainsense,theyareright
atleastinthatasimilarblowwouldbebeneficialtoRussia.Itwouldmeananexplosionontheoilmarketandanexorbitantprice
foroil.OnlyPutinwouldnevertakesuchariskitwouldbearealwar,nottheDonbass,butarealcatastropheAnalliancewith
IrantoattackIsrael,Turkey,orSaudiArabiawouldbeaworldwar.ItwouldmeanthedeathoftheRussianstateandPutinknows
that.
In2016,thesystemiccrisisinRussianvlastwillmoveontoanewstageapartfromirritationwithsocialandeconomicpolicy,
addforeignpolicyWhenitbecomesapparentthattheemperorhasnoclothes,Iwouldntgiveyouthreekopecksforthe
regimescontinuedexistence.Whatwillfollow,whatkindofconsequencestherewillbe,noonecansay
Comment:TheresmoreonRussiaseconomicandfinancialproblemsbelow.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-13/a-fallen-russia-oligarch-sends-warning-to-rest-of-putin-insiders
HewasoneofthemostpowerfulmeninRussiaforadecade,anoldpalofthepresidentwhooversawamillion
workersandarailnetworkspanning11timezones.
ButthenVladimirYakuninwassuddenlyout,endingacareerthatincludedastintasanintelligenceofficerat
theUnitedNationsinNewYorkduringtheColdWar.NowYakunin,67,hassomepartingadviceforthe
remainingmembersofwhathedismissedasPutinsso-calledinnercircle:knowyourplace.
Thiscirclewillcontinuetorotate,YakuninsaidinhisprivateofficeinMoscowduringa90-minuteinterview.
PutinhasyettoformastablerulingclasslikeRussiahadduringczaristtimes,theformerheadofstate-
ownedRussianRailwaysJSCsaid.
Thecommentsareararepublicadmissionfromalongtimeinsiderofthefragilityofwealthandinfluenceinthe
opaqueandseeminglyironcladsystemofcontrolPutinhasbuiltover15years.Withthatsystemunder
unprecedentedpressurefromplungingoilpricesandinternationalsanctions,anystepPutintakestomaintain
hisgriponpowerreverberatesfarbeyondMoscow.
BerezovskyWarning
Someinsidersaremakingthemistakeofviewingtheirpropertyandprivilegeasinalienablerights,but
everythingtheyhavehingesonPutinsshiftingviewsofwhatsgoodforRussia,accordingtoYakunin.He
offeredtwoexamplesfromthepresidentsfirsttermtoillustratethedangersofoverreach.
RememberwhathappenedtoBorisBerezovskyandVladimirGusinsky,hesaid,referringtotwopost-Soviet
oligarchswholosttheirfortunestryingtoinfluencePutinsKremlinthewaytheydidBorisYeltsins.
YakuninsdeparturefromtherailmonopolyinAugustwasthebiggestshakeupinyearswithinthenew
politburo,thehighestauthorityundercommunism,andpresagesmoretocome,accordingtoOlga
Kryshtanovskaya,asociologistwhostrackedtheriseofthesecurityservicesunderretiredKGBColonelPutin.
RoughresignationsbyPutinloyalistsarerareandYakuninsrejectionofthecustomarysenateseatas
consolationisevenmoreso,shesaid.
TheU.S.blacklistedYakunininitsinitialroundofsanctionsovertheUkraineconflictinMarch2014forbeing
bothacloseconfidantofPutinandaninfluentialgovernmentofficialRussianRailwayscarriesmorethana
billionpassengersandabilliontonsofcargoayear.
DachaBuddies
YakuninandothermembersofPutinsSt.Petersburgcliqueinthe1990s,includinghischiefofstaffandfellow
formerspySergeiIvanov,constitutetheRussianleadershipsinnercircle,theTreasuryDepartmentsaidat
thetime.
YakuninandPutinwerealsoneighborsintheelitedachacommunityontheshoreofLakeKomsomolskand
theyservedasco-foundersoftheOzeroDachaCooperativeinNovember1996,itsaid.
AnotherOzerofounder,YuriKovalchuk,wasalsoamongthefirst20Russianssanctioned,aswerethreeother
St.PetersburgbusinessmenwhobecamebillionairesafterPutincametopower--GennadyTimchenkoandthe
brothersArkadyandBorisRotenberg.
ThereasonsYakuninwaskickedoutofthisexclusiveclubaredisputed.
BritishPassport
HesayspubliclythedecisiontoresignwashisownandPutinapprovedit,butpeoplefamiliarwiththematter
saidthepresidentfeltbetrayedwhenYakuninseldestsonobtainedcitizenshipfromtheU.K.whenthat
countrywaspenalizingRussiaoverUkraine.
TheKremlinwasawareoftheissueandnobodyobjected,Yakuninsaid.
MysonhaslivedintheU.K.forfiveyearsandhadtherighttoobtaincitizenship,hesaid.Imadenosecretof
thisfromthecountrysleadership.
Putinsspokesman,DmitryPeskov,declinedtocomment.
Kryshtanovskaya,thesociologist,saiditmayhavejustbeenamatterofmismanagementatRussianRailways.
Thecompanyhadbecomebloated,inefficientandplaguedbyaccusationsofcorruption,sonewleadershipwas
needed,especiallywiththeeconomymiredinarecession,shesaid.
SafeguardingWealth
ThemanpickedtoreplaceYakunin,OlegBelozerov,isa46-year-oldlogisticsspecialistanddeputytransport
ministerfromSt.PetersburgwhohaslongstandingtiestotheRotenbergs.Seethe21August2015notes.
EvgenyMinchenko,whorunstheInternationalInstituteforPoliticalExpertiseinMoscow,saidYakuninwas
simplyoutmaneuveredbymoreaggressiveinsiderswhosebusinessinterestswerebeinghamperedbytherail
monopoly.
Whateverthecause,Minchenkosaidonethingisindisputable:PeopleclosetoPutin,whocouldextendhisrule
toaquartercenturyifhewinsre-electionin2018,areincreasinglyfocusedonsafeguardingtheirwealthand
statustopassthemontotheiroffspring.
PutinIn-Law
SomeareevenjoiningPutinsfamily.
KirillShamalov,thesonofNikolayShamalov,anotherco-founderofthedachacooperativecitedbythe
TreasuryDepartment,marriedPutinsyoungestdaughterKaterinain2013andthenbecameatycooninhis
ownright,thanksmainlytoastakeinapetrochemicalcompanyheacquiredfromTimchenkowithfinancing
fromastatebank.
Still,nobodyspositionbutPutinswillbesecureuntilagoverningeliteliketheonethatexistedbeforethe
Bolsheviksswepttopoweracenturyagoisfullyformed,aprocessthatmaytakedecades,accordingto
Yakunin.
TryingtomeasureinfluencebyproximitytopoliticalresourcesisarelicoftheSovietsystem,hesaid.
RegardingYakuninturningdownaFederationCouncilseatandthereasonsforhisdeparture,abitfromthe16September2015
notes:
[YakuninturnsdowntheofferofaFederationCouncilseat
OnYakuninleavinghispostatRussianRailwaysandbeingsetuptotakeaseatintheFederationCouncil,aswellaswhathisdeparturemight
mean,seethe19,20,21,24,27,and31Augustnotes,andthe2,3,and7Septembernotes.Recallthatsomethoughttherewereproblemswith
YakunintakingtheposthedidntliveintheKaliningradregion,wherehewouldbenominated,anddidnotmeettheexceptiontothatrule
(someonecouldbeeligibleiftheyhadservedinadiplomaticpostwiththestatusofambassadorYakuninhadofficiallybeenadiplomat,buthis
statuswasnotofthatrank).ThethoughtwasthathecouldbepartofaspecialpresidentiallistofcandidatesforspotsintheFederation
Council.
http://www.facebook.com/catherine.schulmann/posts/10207858290726146
YakuninhasaskedtheKaliningradgovernornottonominatehim.YekaterinaSchulmanntriestoexplainwhyshesaysthatnobodythought
throughthediplomaticrequirementandthatYakunindiscoveredthataSenatorsseatwouldnotgivehimtheimmunityhehadhopedfor,as
Senatorscanberemovedatanytime.Thereisnoguaranteedtermforthem.Therearentthatmanygoodspotstomovetotheadministrative
machineisexperiencingaperiodofturbulence.Thelawhastobeobservedforappearancessake,butrespectedpeoplehavetobegivenrespect.
Allthisastheresourceloafisshrinking.
Heresmore:
http://www.rferl.org/content/operation-yakunin-goes-off-the-rails/27249927.html
SomethingclearlywentverywrongwithOperationYakunin.AndthisseemstoindicatethatsomethingisnotquiterightwithTeamPutin.
EversinceVladimirYakuninresignedasheadofRussianRailwaysinAugust,Kremlin-watchershavedebatedwhetherthemovewasademotionor
apreludetoanewpoliticalrole.
WasoneofthemostpowerfulandinfluentialmembersofVladimirPutin'sinnercirclebeingkickedofftheisland?Orwashisremovalpartofan
elaborateoperationtoelevatehim?
Weappeartohaveouranswer.
Yakuninannouncedtodaythathewasn'tinterestedinthenewjobtheKremlinhadlinedupforhim:aseatintheFederationCouncil,theupper
chamberofRussia'sparliament,representingKaliningrad.
FewexpectedsomeoneofYakunin'sstature--someonewhohasbeenpersonallyclosetoPutinfordecades--tosettleforbeingarun-of-the-mill
lawmaker.
Initially,pressreportsindicatedthathewouldlikelybenamedtheFederationCouncil'sdeputyspeaker--orperhapsspeaker.Attheveryleasthe
wouldchairanimportantcommittee.
ButKommersantreportedtoday,citingunidentifiedofficials,thatYakuninwouldnotbeamemberoftheFederationCouncil'sleadershipatall.
"MovingVladimirYakunintotheFederationCouncilnowindeedlookslikeanhonorableresignation,andnotthebeginningofhispoliticalcareer,
asitmayhaveseemedinitially,"IlyaKarpyukwroteinPolit.ru.
Andthen,hourslater,Yakuninmadeitclearhewasn'tgoingtofollowthescript.Ratherthanserveasarank-and-filememberoftheFederation
Council,hewouldprefertospendmoretimewithhis...thinktank.
"IhopeIwillbeabletocontinuebeingusefultosocietybyconcentratingonacademicandpublicactivities,primarilyintheareaofinternational
relationsandintercivilizationaldialogue,"Yakuninsaid.
It'shardtolookatallthisandnotcometotheconclusionthatYakuniniseitherleavingorbeingbanishedfromthe"collectivePutin,"thedozenor
soinsiderswhoruleRussia.
Andthatisaverybigdeal.
ThelasttimeanybodyofthisstaturelefttheKremlinleader'sinnersanctumwaswhenAlekseiKudrinresignedasfinanceministerinSeptember
2011.
ThathappenedjustdaysafterPutinannouncedhewouldreturntothepresidency,sparkingtheworstintereliteturbulenceofhisrule.
ItalsohappenedjustmonthsbeforeRussiawitnesseditslargestantigovernmentstreetprotestssincethebreakupoftheSovietUnion.
It'salsohardtonotsuspectthattheYakunindebacleindicatesthattheinformalgoverningmodelthatPutinhasreliedonforhisentirepresidency-
-onebasedonatightgroupofcronies--isinseriousflux,ifnotoutrightcrisis.
Putin'steamhasmasteredtheartofgovernmentbyspets-operatsiya,orcovertops.Significantpersonnelmovesareplannedoutandexecutedwith
militaryprecision.
AndthefactthattheKremlinbotchedthisone--orYakuninwillfullystrayedfromthescript--seemstopointtoaregimethat,despiteoutward
appearancesofomnipotence,isseriouslylosingitsmojo.
Comment:Iwouldntgothatfar.ThedepartureofYakunin,asIwroteinearliernotes,hadbeenfoughtoverforsometime,andhehadlotsof
apparatusopponentswhowantedhimoutatRussianRailways.Therearesomeserioustensionsintheelite,asIvementionedbefore,butthekey
pointhere,Ithink,isthatPutinhasbeenveryirritatedwithsomeoftheheadsofmajorstatecompaniesandtheirhandlingofthoseenterprises
duringthecrisis.Reportedlybothheandthegovernmentareespeciallyirritatedattheconstantrequests(ordemands)forstateaid.Sechin
apparentlygotthemessageandrecentlydroppedRosneftrequestsforNationalWelfareFundmoney.Seethe4Septembernotes.]
Comment:FollowingYakuninsdeparture,VenediktovsaidthatelitesinPutinscircleweretryingtodistance
themselvesfromthepresidentthepointseemedtobethattheysensedthepossibilityofafullscalepoliticalcrisis
andweremovingtoprotectthemselvesandthoseneartothem.IdidntthinkYakuninsdeparturewasasurpriseit
hadbeenalongtimecomingandittookcrisiscircumstancesforPutintoact.Thepointtomakehereisthat,asthe
pieceabovenoted,Yakunin,unlike,say,Cherkesov,didnotactaccordingtothescript(butPutindidnt,either,
accordingtosomeofoursources,inthatYakuninwasnotofferedaleadershippostintheFederationCouncil).Its
interestingthatYakuninbroughtupBerezovskiyandGusinskiy.
TheissueofYakuninssonscitizenshipmayhavebeenanadditionalfactorrecallthatLatyninahassaidthat
ChaykassonhavingofficiallyreceivedforeignresidencydoesnotbodewellfortheProsecutorGeneral(Seethe10
and14December2015notesTherewassomeconfusionoverwhetherArtyomChaykahadappliedforSwiss
residencyorSwisscitizenshipitappearsthatheappliedforresidency).Ofcourse,someofPutinsfriendsandtheir
familymembershaveforeigncitizenship.Inotedtheotherday,forinstance,thatoneoftheRotenbergssonsBoris,
Jr.hadFinnishcitizenship,asdoesRomanRotenberg,ArkadiysnephewandVPoftheRussianHockeyFederation.
Maybeitsthetimingofwhencitizenshipwastakenthatcouldbeafactordoingsoaftertheimpositionofsanctions
mightbethetriggerforPutinsirritation.LatyninanotedthatArtyomChaykaappliedforSwissresidencyafterthe
annexationofCrimea.
ThiswaswrittenbeforetheBloombergarticlehttp://slon.ru/posts/62361
YakuninspathsincehisdeparturefromRussianRailwaysisrevealing,tellingusalotaboutthethinkingandlivesofthePutin
brotherhoodYakuninpreviouslymentionedhiscreatinganewcenter,amentionprimarilydedicatedtoadvertisinghis
foundation(Comment:TheSt.Andreysfoundation,thethinktankreferredtoabove),thatwasitselfasignalthathis
foundationwouldremainevenafterYakuninlosthisRussianRailwayspost
StatusinthePutineliteisnotdeterminedsomuchbyformalpostasbythedistributionofinformalresources,includingproximityto
thepresident.InYakuninscase,PutinwasreportedlyirritatedwithYakuninssonsBritishcitizenshipandwiththescaleofassets
beingdrainedfromRussianRailways
ItslikelythatYakuninwasthinkingaboutwhattodoafterheleftRussianRailwaysoverthelasttwoyears,ashisfatewasin
question.Hesawanoutlineofthatinexpert-scientificactivity.Hehadbeenengagedinadialogueofcivilizations(Comment:
ReferredtoaboveinconnectionwithYakuninsthinktank)ontwoplatformshisDialogueofCivilizationsinternational
forumandintheFranco-RussianDialoguewhichheco-chairedwithamemberoftheFrenchNationalAssembly.ButYakunin
sawhimselfinabiggerrolehisdreamwastobecomeasortofinformalminsterofforeignaffairs,apersonwiththehistorical
missionofestablishingdialoguewithRussiasfriendsaroundtheworld.Hisministrywouldbehisownanalyticalcenter,onethat
wouldofferproposalsforloweringtensionsintheworld.
YakuninisofferinghisservicestoPutin.Heistakinguponhimselftheroleofdove,confirmingthehypothesisthatthe
presidentsbusinessentourageisnotinterestedinconfrontationwiththeWest.Finally,nomatterhowmuchPutinmightbe
disappointedwithhiscomradesandhowmuchtheybedisappointedintheirprospectsforeternallypreservingtheirlucrative
placesinthesystem,nothingcouldpitthemoneagainsttheother(Comment:IwonderwhatStanovayamakesofthe
Bloombergpiece)
YakuninisdoingwhatKudrindidafterhelosthisgovernmentpost.Kudrinwantedtobethemediatorbetweenthepresidentand
the2011-2012protestors.YakuninwantstobethemediatorbetweenPutinandtheWest.Hellbedistrusted,asKudrinwas,
especiallyinEurope,taggedasaPutinagent.Sohisprospectsseemprettynarrowthosewhomightengagewithhisnewcenter
willlikelybethosewhostandtobenefitfromarelationshipwiththeRussianpoliticalandbusinesselite.
YakuninscentercouldinvolveitselfwiththeMinskContactGroupYakuninhaspreviouslycooperatedwithBorisGryzlov,who
hasbeendesignatedRussiasrepresentativetotheContactGroup(Seethe8Januarynotes).Yakuninscentercould,forexample,
comeupwithadraftUkrainianconstitution,whichwouldneverbetakenseriously,butcouldbeusedtodefendRussianpositions
ontheDonbass.
NeitherYakuninnorKudrinhaveanofficialspotinthesystem.Nevertheless,Kudrinisconsideredamemberoftheteam
TheboundariesbetweenstateandpublicorganizationsheadedbyPutincomradesaregraduallybeingobliterated.Thestate
anditsinstitutionsaredissolvingintoasystemofinformaltieswhicharenotcapableofreplacingstateadministration.Thesplitting
upoftheverticalisoneofthemostinterestingprocessinlate-PutineraRussia.
Comment:Yakuninhasshownaninterestingeo-politics,Russiasroleintheworld,andOrthodoxChurchmattersfor
alongtime.HeisknownasanOrthodoxChekistinPutinscircle.Itstruethathisintentionmayhavebeento
parallelKudrinasamemberoftheteamoutsidetheformalchannelsofvlast,butthefirstarticlesuggeststhathis
offeringhisservicesinthatrolehasbeenrebuffed.Why?WhywasKudrinacceptedinsucharoleandYakunin
apparentlynot?DidithavesomethingtodowithmismanagementandcorruptionatRussianRailwaysduringthe
crisis?DidPutinseeYakuninasoneofthosecomplicatingmattersfortheKremlininthemiddleofaneconomiccrisis?
Inthatcontext,maybeYakuninsofferdidntlooktooattractivetoPutin,whohasusuallytakencareofhisfriendswith
somekindofsinecure.ThefactthatYakuninwasnotapparentlyofferedanimportantpostinFederationCouncilmay
indicatethatPutinwassouronhimbeforeYakuninsproposal.ItistruethatKudrinalsoappearedtostepintoa
sensitiveareainofferinghisservicesduringtheprotestwaveandIwonderedabouthowmuchdistrustPutinmight
haveforhimsubsequently.ButmaybePutinfiguredhemightneedKudrinsexpertiseatsomepoint.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/putins-alleged-son-in-law-is-russias-latest-billionaire--
forbes/555639.html
ThemanreportedtobeRussianPresidentVladimirPutin'sson-in-lawhasbecomethecountry'slatestdollarbillionaire,
theRussianversionofForbesmagazinereportedonTuesday.
KirillShamalov,33,whoaccordingtotheReutersnewsagencyisthehusbandofPutin'sdaughterKaterinaTikhonova,
swelledhisfortuneto$1.2billionfollowingthesaleofastakeingasandpetrochemicalcompanySiburtoChina's
SinopecinDecember,Forbessaid.Shamalovhada21percentstakeinSiburbeforethesale,accordingtoForbes.See
the21Decembernotes.
HedidnotcommenttoForbesonthefigures.
ShamalovistheyoungestsonofNikolaiShamalov,alongtimefriendofPutin'sandshareholderinBankRossiya,which
U.S.officialshavedescribedasthepersonalbankoftheRussianelite.
AReutersreportlastyearidentifiedTikhonovaasPutin'sdaughterandclaimedthatsheandShamalovtogetherowned
assetsworthabout$2billionincludingamulti-million-dollarvillainFrance.
Seeyesterdaysnotes.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/chinas-economic-turmoil-ruins-russias-new-year/555714.html
NewfearsoverChinaseconomyandsharpfallsinthepriceofoilhaveworsenedtheoutlookforRussiaasittriesto
emergefromrecession.
Thepriceofcrude,thelinchpinofRussiaseconomy,fellalmost20percentinthefirsttwoweeksofJanuarytojustabove
$30perbarrelafterChinesestockindexestumbledmorethan10percentinthefirstdaysoftheyear.
WhiletheoilpricefallsthreatenedtoderailhopesforaneconomicrecoveryinRussia,theturmoilonthestockmarkets
deepenedfearsthatChineseeconomicgrowth,whichhaspoweredcommoditypricesandtheglobaleconomy,could
declinefasterthanexpected.ThismayhaveseriousconsequencesforMoscowkeepingthepriceofcommodities
lowerforlongerandweakeningastrategictradepartner.
ForRussia,thisisveryunpleasantnews,saidYevgenyNadorshin,chiefeconomistatAFKSistema,amajorRussian
conglomerate.
Astheoilpriceplunged,Russiasworstcasescenarioappearedtobecomingtrue.Therublefollowedtheoilprice
downward,weakening4percentinthefirsttwoweeksofJanuarytoaround76.5againsttheU.S.dollarnearitslowest
sincethecrisisof1998andlessthanhalfitsvaluetwoyearsago.
FinanceMinisterAntonSiluanovsaidattheGaidarForuminMoscowthathisbudget,whichreceivesaroundhalfits
revenuesfromtheenergyindustry,wouldbalanceonlyat$82perbarrel,accordingtotheReutersnewsagency.
Predictinganaverageoilpriceof$40fortheyear,hesaidthebudgetmustadapttonewrealitiesorRussiawouldseea
repeatofthedisastrousfinancialcrisisof1998-99.FormoreonSiluanov,seetheitembelow.
Healsosaidgovernmentdepartmentsweredrawingup10percentspendingcutsinnon-protectedareas.
Alreadyinitslongestrecessionsincethe1990saftershrinkinganestimated3.7percentlastyear,theeconomycould
contractbyanother2-3percentin2016ifoilpricesaverage$35perbarrel,theCentralBanksaidinDecember,whilethe
budgetdeficitwouldexpandandcurrencyreservesdepleted.
AsurveybystatepollsterVTsIOMpublishedinearlyJanuaryfoundthatmorethanhalfofRussians52percent
thoughtthehardesttimesforthecountrywereyettocome.
StockmarketvolatilityinChinasuggeststhattheycouldberight.Chinaseconomyhasbeenthemaindriverofglobal
demandforcommodities,andaslowingofChinesegrowthwouldexacerbatethepriceslump.
AWorldBankreportinearlyJanuarysaidaone-percentfallinChinasgrowthratewouldreducethevalueofcommodities
byaround6percentovertwoyears,andwarnedofaprotractedperiodoflowcommoditypricesincomingyears.
Oversupplyhasalreadysharplyloweredthecostofoil,gasandmetals,ofwhichRussiaisalsoamajorproducer.Energy
pricesfellby41percentlastyearandindustrialmetalsby24percent,accordingtotheS&PGoldmanSachsCommodity
Index.
AnotherthreattopricesisifChinamovestostimulateitseconomy.MorganStanleysaidinaJanuaryreportthatarapid
devaluationoftheChinesecurrencydesignedtoboostitsexportscouldsendoilintothe$20s[perbarrel]itslowest
in15years.
Ontopofthat,astrengtheningU.S.dollarispushingdownpricesbymakingitmoreexpensiveforthoseusingother
currenciestobuydollar-tradedcommodities.
Themovementofthesetwocurrenciesismutuallyreinforcing,MorganStanleysaidaweakerChineseeconomy
encouragesflighttothedollar,whileastrongerdollarincreasesthetemptationforChinesepolicymakerstodevalue.
PresidentVladimirPutininaninterviewwithGermanysBildnewspaperinearlyJanuarytriedtocastcommoditieslow
pricesasablessingindisguise,sayingthatwhenoilpriceswerehighitwasverydifficultforustoresistspendingoil
revenuestocovercurrentexpenses,andthenewrealitywouldbeanincentivetorebalancetheeconomy.
Butalackofavailableinvestmentcapitalhasstifleddiversification.Andamidaslumpinincomesandconsumer
spending,Russiascommoditiessectorisoneofthefewmajorindustriestobefaringrelativelywell,analystssaid.
Theweakrublehasallowedenergy,metalsandminingcompanies,whichearnexportrevenuesindollars,tomaintain
incomesinrubleterms.Meanwhile,Russianproducershavebecomemuchmorecompetitiveonglobalmarketsthanks
tohugefallsinthecostoflaborthathaveloweredproductioncosts.
ThecostoflaborinRussiahasfallentorivalthatofChina,saidValeryMironov,deputydirectoroftheCenterof
DevelopmentattheHigherSchoolofEconomics,aMoscowuniversity.
However,newinvestmentinproductionhasbeenlimitedbysanctionsandtherecessionathome.Andifpricesremain
lowforanextendedperiodoftime,evenRussiancompanieswillbeforcedtoretrench,analystssaid.
Inthelongerterm,worriesoverChinesegrowthalsostrikeRussianinterestsinadeeperway,knockingconfidencein
ChinaasafinancialallyforMoscow.
FollowingabreakdowninrelationswiththeWestfollowingRussiasannexationofCrimeain2014andmorerecently
withTurkeyovertheshootingdownofaRussianwarplaneontheTurkish-SyrianborderMoscowhaslookedtobuild
relationswithdynamicemergingmarkets,particularlywithChina.
HopesofafloodofChinesecapitalintoRussiafailedtomaterializefollowingtheUkrainecrisis,butthelonger-termaimof
hitchingRussiatoeast-Asiangrowthremained.
Thatdecisionnowlooksincreasinglyflawed,saidNeilShearing,chiefemergingmarketseconomistatCapital
Economics.Russiaspivottotheeastandhopethatdevelopingnationswouldbecometheengineofglobalgrowthhave
beenunderminedbyrecentevents,hesaid.
Afull-blowncrisisisunlikelythankstoChinasmassiveforeignexchangereserves.ButincreasingfearsoflowerChinese
growtharecomingastheUnitedStatesbeginstoliftinterestrates,fuelingamassivereallocationofcapitalfrom
emergingmarketstodevelopedonesandsappingstrengthfromemergingeconomies,manyofwhichareheavily
indebted.
Thatisn'tthewayRussiaplannedit.AllbetswereonChina,saidSistemasNadorshin.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russia-must-cut-spending-or-suffer-financial-crash--finance-
minister/555640.html
Russiawillneedtomakecutstogovernmentspendinginresponsetothenewrealitiesofaprolongedperiodoflowoil
prices,FinanceMinisterAntonSiluanovsaidWednesday.
Siluanov,whoseministryreliesontheenergyindustryforabouthalfitsincome,saidthecurrentbudgetfor2016would
needanaverageoilpriceof$82tobalance.Crudeiscurrentlytradingatjustover$30perbarrel.
SpeakingattheGaidarForuminMoscow,Siluanovsaidthebudgetshouldberecalculatedtoassumeanaverageoil
pricefortheyearof$40,theReutersnewsagencyreported.
"Ourtaskistoadaptourbudgettothenewrealities,"Reutersquotedhimassaying."Therearestillalotofdecisionsto
bemadewhenitcomestobudgetpolicy."
Ifwedon'tdothat,wewillseearepeatofwhathappenedin1998-99,"headded,accordingtonewsagencyInterfax,
referringtothegovernmentdefaultandeconomiccrashthatfollowed.
Russiangovernmentdepartmentshavealreadybeenorderedtosubmitproposalsfor10percentcutsinnon-essential
spendingtotalingmorethan500billionrubles($6.5billion),Siluanovsaid.
Thecurrentbudgetfor2016,adoptedlatelastyear,assumesa$50oilpriceandadeficitof3percentofGDP.The
FinanceMinistryinDecemberwarnedthat$40oilwouldinflatethedeficittoaround5percentandexhaustRussia's$59-
billion-dollarreservefundbytheendoftheyear.
Speakingatthesameforum,PrimeMinisterDmitryMedvedevsaid:"Oneneedstopreparefortheworstscenario,"
accordingtoReuters.
Russia'seconomyisalreadymiredinitslongestrecessionsinceVladimirPutincametopowerin1999.Outputis
expectedtohavecontractedby3.7percentlastyear,andtheCentralBankwarnedinDecemberthatifthepriceofoil
averaged$35in2016theeconomywouldshrinkafurther2-3percentthisyear.
Senttime: 01/13/201602:50:24PM
To: swallen@1scom.net
YakuninturnsdowntheofferofaFederationCouncilseat
Comment:Radzikhovskiy,whohasacolumninRossiyaskayaGazeta,wrotethisonefortheUkrainianNovoye
VremyaIveoftennotedthatitwouldtakequitealot,aperfectstormofpoliticalandeconomiccrises,todislodge
PuinfromtheKremlin.Wearentthere,buttheelementsofapotentialstormcouldbetakingshape.Itremainstobe
seewhethertheywillcometogetherattherighttimeintherightway,withthe2016-2018electioncycleapproaching,
butwithUralsgradeoilatnearly$30/barrel(seeyesterdaysnotes)andPutin(inhisBildinterview)tryingtoputa
positivespinonthat,astormfrontdoesappeartobeforming.
http://m.nv.ua/opinion/radzihovsky/idealnyj-shtorm-v-kremle-89925.html
TheKremlinfindsitselfinaperfectstormsituation:thecollapseoftheeconomymeansanimpendingpoliticalcollapseaswell.In
2013-2014,vlastexperiencedaforeignpolicyfailurebiggerthanallthefailuresindomesticpoliticsandeconomics.Vlastfinds
itselftrappedinacorner,withnowayout.
Televisioncantturnaneconomicfailureintoaneconomicbreakthrough:peoplecangotothestoreandseetherealprices,they
cangotoworkandseewhatishappeningtotheirwages.
Meanwhile,televisiontranslatesinternationalisolationintoRussianinfluenceonworldaffairs,thefailureinUkraineasprotectingthe
Donbass,thefailurewithChinaasstrengtheningRussiaspositioninEurasia,theEurasianUnion,whichisgoingnowhere,asa
powerfulalliance.ThephraseRussiaspositionintheworldisstrengtheningisnothingbutacollectionofwords.
Wehavenoallies?Well,tohellwiththem,weareRussians,wewillprevail!...Therehasbeenacatastrophicdeclineinforeign
trade?Wehaveimportsubstitution!...
ThecatastropheforPutiniscomingonatjustthatmomentwhenRussianseyesarebeginningtoperceivereality.Putinwilldo
anythingtopreventthathappeninghewillnotwithdrawfromUkraine,hewillnotmakeanexitfromSyria,thoughnobodylikes
thatidioticadventureWherewearebombing,therewillbepeace,thatsthelogicofofficialpropaganda
IfyoudontbuildacompletelyclosedcountrylikeNorthKoreaandPutindoesntwanttodothatandwillnotdoitunderany
circumstancessoonerorlater,realitywilltakehold.Sothisnextyearwillbeaturningpoint
TheyveplayedtheSyriancardandtherearenonewonestoplayRussiahasnotrumpcardnotineconomics,notinculture,
notintechnology,notinanythingrelatedtosoftpowerInthissituation,theonlythingwehavelefttoplayisclaimsthatour
tanksarefaster,andwhataboutourrockets?Wheretousethem?WecanusethemintheMiddleEast,averyexplosiveregion,
butPutinisveryafraidofthat
SomemindlessPutincriticswritethatVVPintendstousenuclearweaponsagainstSaudiArabia.Inacertainsense,theyareright
atleastinthatasimilarblowwouldbebeneficialtoRussia.Itwouldmeananexplosionontheoilmarketandanexorbitantprice
foroil.OnlyPutinwouldnevertakesuchariskitwouldbearealwar,nottheDonbass,butarealcatastropheAnalliancewith
IrantoattackIsrael,Turkey,orSaudiArabiawouldbeaworldwar.ItwouldmeanthedeathoftheRussianstateandPutinknows
that.
In2016,thesystemiccrisisinRussianvlastwillmoveontoanewstageapartfromirritationwithsocialandeconomicpolicy,
addforeignpolicyWhenitbecomesapparentthattheemperorhasnoclothes,Iwouldntgiveyouthreekopecksforthe
regimescontinuedexistence.Whatwillfollow,whatkindofconsequencestherewillbe,noonecansay
Comment:TheresmoreonRussiaseconomicandfinancialproblemsbelow.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-13/a-fallen-russia-oligarch-sends-warning-to-rest-of-putin-insiders
HewasoneofthemostpowerfulmeninRussiaforadecade,anoldpalofthepresidentwhooversawamillion
workersandarailnetworkspanning11timezones.
ButthenVladimirYakuninwassuddenlyout,endingacareerthatincludedastintasanintelligenceofficerat
theUnitedNationsinNewYorkduringtheColdWar.NowYakunin,67,hassomepartingadviceforthe
remainingmembersofwhathedismissedasPutinsso-calledinnercircle:knowyourplace.
Thiscirclewillcontinuetorotate,YakuninsaidinhisprivateofficeinMoscowduringa90-minuteinterview.
PutinhasyettoformastablerulingclasslikeRussiahadduringczaristtimes,theformerheadofstate-
ownedRussianRailwaysJSCsaid.
Thecommentsareararepublicadmissionfromalongtimeinsiderofthefragilityofwealthandinfluenceinthe
opaqueandseeminglyironcladsystemofcontrolPutinhasbuiltover15years.Withthatsystemunder
unprecedentedpressurefromplungingoilpricesandinternationalsanctions,anystepPutintakestomaintain
hisgriponpowerreverberatesfarbeyondMoscow.
BerezovskyWarning
Someinsidersaremakingthemistakeofviewingtheirpropertyandprivilegeasinalienablerights,but
everythingtheyhavehingesonPutinsshiftingviewsofwhatsgoodforRussia,accordingtoYakunin.He
offeredtwoexamplesfromthepresidentsfirsttermtoillustratethedangersofoverreach.
RememberwhathappenedtoBorisBerezovskyandVladimirGusinsky,hesaid,referringtotwopost-Soviet
oligarchswholosttheirfortunestryingtoinfluencePutinsKremlinthewaytheydidBorisYeltsins.
YakuninsdeparturefromtherailmonopolyinAugustwasthebiggestshakeupinyearswithinthenew
politburo,thehighestauthorityundercommunism,andpresagesmoretocome,accordingtoOlga
Kryshtanovskaya,asociologistwhostrackedtheriseofthesecurityservicesunderretiredKGBColonelPutin.
RoughresignationsbyPutinloyalistsarerareandYakuninsrejectionofthecustomarysenateseatas
consolationisevenmoreso,shesaid.
TheU.S.blacklistedYakunininitsinitialroundofsanctionsovertheUkraineconflictinMarch2014forbeing
bothacloseconfidantofPutinandaninfluentialgovernmentofficialRussianRailwayscarriesmorethana
billionpassengersandabilliontonsofcargoayear.
DachaBuddies
YakuninandothermembersofPutinsSt.Petersburgcliqueinthe1990s,includinghischiefofstaffandfellow
formerspySergeiIvanov,constitutetheRussianleadershipsinnercircle,theTreasuryDepartmentsaidat
thetime.
YakuninandPutinwerealsoneighborsintheelitedachacommunityontheshoreofLakeKomsomolskand
theyservedasco-foundersoftheOzeroDachaCooperativeinNovember1996,itsaid.
AnotherOzerofounder,YuriKovalchuk,wasalsoamongthefirst20Russianssanctioned,aswerethreeother
St.PetersburgbusinessmenwhobecamebillionairesafterPutincametopower--GennadyTimchenkoandthe
brothersArkadyandBorisRotenberg.
ThereasonsYakuninwaskickedoutofthisexclusiveclubaredisputed.
BritishPassport
HesayspubliclythedecisiontoresignwashisownandPutinapprovedit,butpeoplefamiliarwiththematter
saidthepresidentfeltbetrayedwhenYakuninseldestsonobtainedcitizenshipfromtheU.K.whenthat
countrywaspenalizingRussiaoverUkraine.
TheKremlinwasawareoftheissueandnobodyobjected,Yakuninsaid.
MysonhaslivedintheU.K.forfiveyearsandhadtherighttoobtaincitizenship,hesaid.Imadenosecretof
thisfromthecountrysleadership.
Putinsspokesman,DmitryPeskov,declinedtocomment.
Kryshtanovskaya,thesociologist,saiditmayhavejustbeenamatterofmismanagementatRussianRailways.
Thecompanyhadbecomebloated,inefficientandplaguedbyaccusationsofcorruption,sonewleadershipwas
needed,especiallywiththeeconomymiredinarecession,shesaid.
SafeguardingWealth
ThemanpickedtoreplaceYakunin,OlegBelozerov,isa46-year-oldlogisticsspecialistanddeputytransport
ministerfromSt.PetersburgwhohaslongstandingtiestotheRotenbergs.Seethe21August2015notes.
EvgenyMinchenko,whorunstheInternationalInstituteforPoliticalExpertiseinMoscow,saidYakuninwas
simplyoutmaneuveredbymoreaggressiveinsiderswhosebusinessinterestswerebeinghamperedbytherail
monopoly.
Whateverthecause,Minchenkosaidonethingisindisputable:PeopleclosetoPutin,whocouldextendhisrule
toaquartercenturyifhewinsre-electionin2018,areincreasinglyfocusedonsafeguardingtheirwealthand
statustopassthemontotheiroffspring.
PutinIn-Law
SomeareevenjoiningPutinsfamily.
KirillShamalov,thesonofNikolayShamalov,anotherco-founderofthedachacooperativecitedbythe
TreasuryDepartment,marriedPutinsyoungestdaughterKaterinain2013andthenbecameatycooninhis
ownright,thanksmainlytoastakeinapetrochemicalcompanyheacquiredfromTimchenkowithfinancing
fromastatebank.
Still,nobodyspositionbutPutinswillbesecureuntilagoverningeliteliketheonethatexistedbeforethe
Bolsheviksswepttopoweracenturyagoisfullyformed,aprocessthatmaytakedecades,accordingto
Yakunin.
TryingtomeasureinfluencebyproximitytopoliticalresourcesisarelicoftheSovietsystem,hesaid.
RegardingYakuninturningdownaFederationCouncilseatandthereasonsforhisdeparture,abitfromthe16September2015
notes:
[YakuninturnsdowntheofferofaFederationCouncilseat
OnYakuninleavinghispostatRussianRailwaysandbeingsetuptotakeaseatintheFederationCouncil,aswellaswhathisdeparturemight
mean,seethe19,20,21,24,27,and31Augustnotes,andthe2,3,and7Septembernotes.Recallthatsomethoughttherewereproblemswith
YakunintakingtheposthedidntliveintheKaliningradregion,wherehewouldbenominated,anddidnotmeettheexceptiontothatrule
(someonecouldbeeligibleiftheyhadservedinadiplomaticpostwiththestatusofambassadorYakuninhadofficiallybeenadiplomat,buthis
statuswasnotofthatrank).ThethoughtwasthathecouldbepartofaspecialpresidentiallistofcandidatesforspotsintheFederation
Council.
http://www.facebook.com/catherine.schulmann/posts/10207858290726146
YakuninhasaskedtheKaliningradgovernornottonominatehim.YekaterinaSchulmanntriestoexplainwhyshesaysthatnobodythought
throughthediplomaticrequirementandthatYakunindiscoveredthataSenatorsseatwouldnotgivehimtheimmunityhehadhopedfor,as
Senatorscanberemovedatanytime.Thereisnoguaranteedtermforthem.Therearentthatmanygoodspotstomovetotheadministrative
machineisexperiencingaperiodofturbulence.Thelawhastobeobservedforappearancessake,butrespectedpeoplehavetobegivenrespect.
Allthisastheresourceloafisshrinking.
Heresmore:
http://www.rferl.org/content/operation-yakunin-goes-off-the-rails/27249927.html
SomethingclearlywentverywrongwithOperationYakunin.AndthisseemstoindicatethatsomethingisnotquiterightwithTeamPutin.
EversinceVladimirYakuninresignedasheadofRussianRailwaysinAugust,Kremlin-watchershavedebatedwhetherthemovewasademotionor
apreludetoanewpoliticalrole.
WasoneofthemostpowerfulandinfluentialmembersofVladimirPutin'sinnercirclebeingkickedofftheisland?Orwashisremovalpartofan
elaborateoperationtoelevatehim?
Weappeartohaveouranswer.
Yakuninannouncedtodaythathewasn'tinterestedinthenewjobtheKremlinhadlinedupforhim:aseatintheFederationCouncil,theupper
chamberofRussia'sparliament,representingKaliningrad.
FewexpectedsomeoneofYakunin'sstature--someonewhohasbeenpersonallyclosetoPutinfordecades--tosettleforbeingarun-of-the-mill
lawmaker.
Initially,pressreportsindicatedthathewouldlikelybenamedtheFederationCouncil'sdeputyspeaker--orperhapsspeaker.Attheveryleasthe
wouldchairanimportantcommittee.
ButKommersantreportedtoday,citingunidentifiedofficials,thatYakuninwouldnotbeamemberoftheFederationCouncil'sleadershipatall.
"MovingVladimirYakunintotheFederationCouncilnowindeedlookslikeanhonorableresignation,andnotthebeginningofhispoliticalcareer,
asitmayhaveseemedinitially,"IlyaKarpyukwroteinPolit.ru.
Andthen,hourslater,Yakuninmadeitclearhewasn'tgoingtofollowthescript.Ratherthanserveasarank-and-filememberoftheFederation
Council,hewouldprefertospendmoretimewithhis...thinktank.
"IhopeIwillbeabletocontinuebeingusefultosocietybyconcentratingonacademicandpublicactivities,primarilyintheareaofinternational
relationsandintercivilizationaldialogue,"Yakuninsaid.
It'shardtolookatallthisandnotcometotheconclusionthatYakuniniseitherleavingorbeingbanishedfromthe"collectivePutin,"thedozenor
soinsiderswhoruleRussia.
Andthatisaverybigdeal.
ThelasttimeanybodyofthisstaturelefttheKremlinleader'sinnersanctumwaswhenAlekseiKudrinresignedasfinanceministerinSeptember
2011.
ThathappenedjustdaysafterPutinannouncedhewouldreturntothepresidency,sparkingtheworstintereliteturbulenceofhisrule.
ItalsohappenedjustmonthsbeforeRussiawitnesseditslargestantigovernmentstreetprotestssincethebreakupoftheSovietUnion.
It'salsohardtonotsuspectthattheYakunindebacleindicatesthattheinformalgoverningmodelthatPutinhasreliedonforhisentirepresidency-
-onebasedonatightgroupofcronies--isinseriousflux,ifnotoutrightcrisis.
Putin'steamhasmasteredtheartofgovernmentbyspets-operatsiya,orcovertops.Significantpersonnelmovesareplannedoutandexecutedwith
militaryprecision.
AndthefactthattheKremlinbotchedthisone--orYakuninwillfullystrayedfromthescript--seemstopointtoaregimethat,despiteoutward
appearancesofomnipotence,isseriouslylosingitsmojo.
Comment:Iwouldntgothatfar.ThedepartureofYakunin,asIwroteinearliernotes,hadbeenfoughtoverforsometime,andhehadlotsof
apparatusopponentswhowantedhimoutatRussianRailways.Therearesomeserioustensionsintheelite,asIvementionedbefore,butthekey
pointhere,Ithink,isthatPutinhasbeenveryirritatedwithsomeoftheheadsofmajorstatecompaniesandtheirhandlingofthoseenterprises
duringthecrisis.Reportedlybothheandthegovernmentareespeciallyirritatedattheconstantrequests(ordemands)forstateaid.Sechin
apparentlygotthemessageandrecentlydroppedRosneftrequestsforNationalWelfareFundmoney.Seethe4Septembernotes.]
Comment:FollowingYakuninsdeparture,VenediktovsaidthatelitesinPutinscircleweretryingtodistance
themselvesfromthepresidentthepointseemedtobethattheysensedthepossibilityofafullscalepoliticalcrisis
andweremovingtoprotectthemselvesandthoseneartothem.IdidntthinkYakuninsdeparturewasasurpriseit
hadbeenalongtimecomingandittookcrisiscircumstancesforPutintoact.Thepointtomakehereisthat,asthe
pieceabovenoted,Yakunin,unlike,say,Cherkesov,didnotactaccordingtothescript(butPutindidnt,either,
accordingtosomeofoursources,inthatYakuninwasnotofferedaleadershippostintheFederationCouncil).Its
interestingthatYakuninbroughtupBerezovskiyandGusinskiy.
TheissueofYakuninssonscitizenshipmayhavebeenanadditionalfactorrecallthatLatyninahassaidthat
ChaykassonhavingofficiallyreceivedforeignresidencydoesnotbodewellfortheProsecutorGeneral(Seethe10
and14December2015notesTherewassomeconfusionoverwhetherArtyomChaykahadappliedforSwiss
residencyorSwisscitizenshipitappearsthatheappliedforresidency).Ofcourse,someofPutinsfriendsandtheir
familymembershaveforeigncitizenship.Inotedtheotherday,forinstance,thatoneoftheRotenbergssonsBoris,
Jr.hadFinnishcitizenship,asdoesRomanRotenberg,ArkadiysnephewandVPoftheRussianHockeyFederation.
Maybeitsthetimingofwhencitizenshipwastakenthatcouldbeafactordoingsoaftertheimpositionofsanctions
mightbethetriggerforPutinsirritation.LatyninanotedthatArtyomChaykaappliedforSwissresidencyafterthe
annexationofCrimea.
ThiswaswrittenbeforetheBloombergarticlehttp://slon.ru/posts/62361
YakuninspathsincehisdeparturefromRussianRailwaysisrevealing,tellingusalotaboutthethinkingandlivesofthePutin
brotherhoodYakuninpreviouslymentionedhiscreatinganewcenter,amentionprimarilydedicatedtoadvertisinghis
foundation(Comment:TheSt.Andreysfoundation,thethinktankreferredtoabove),thatwasitselfasignalthathis
foundationwouldremainevenafterYakuninlosthisRussianRailwayspost
StatusinthePutineliteisnotdeterminedsomuchbyformalpostasbythedistributionofinformalresources,includingproximityto
thepresident.InYakuninscase,PutinwasreportedlyirritatedwithYakuninssonsBritishcitizenshipandwiththescaleofassets
beingdrainedfromRussianRailways
ItslikelythatYakuninwasthinkingaboutwhattodoafterheleftRussianRailwaysoverthelasttwoyears,ashisfatewasin
question.Hesawanoutlineofthatinexpert-scientificactivity.Hehadbeenengagedinadialogueofcivilizations(Comment:
ReferredtoaboveinconnectionwithYakuninsthinktank)ontwoplatformshisDialogueofCivilizationsinternational
forumandintheFranco-RussianDialoguewhichheco-chairedwithamemberoftheFrenchNationalAssembly.ButYakunin
sawhimselfinabiggerrolehisdreamwastobecomeasortofinformalminsterofforeignaffairs,apersonwiththehistorical
missionofestablishingdialoguewithRussiasfriendsaroundtheworld.Hisministrywouldbehisownanalyticalcenter,onethat
wouldofferproposalsforloweringtensionsintheworld.
YakuninisofferinghisservicestoPutin.Heistakinguponhimselftheroleofdove,confirmingthehypothesisthatthe
presidentsbusinessentourageisnotinterestedinconfrontationwiththeWest.Finally,nomatterhowmuchPutinmightbe
disappointedwithhiscomradesandhowmuchtheybedisappointedintheirprospectsforeternallypreservingtheirlucrative
placesinthesystem,nothingcouldpitthemoneagainsttheother(Comment:IwonderwhatStanovayamakesofthe
Bloombergpiece)
YakuninisdoingwhatKudrindidafterhelosthisgovernmentpost.Kudrinwantedtobethemediatorbetweenthepresidentand
the2011-2012protestors.YakuninwantstobethemediatorbetweenPutinandtheWest.Hellbedistrusted,asKudrinwas,
especiallyinEurope,taggedasaPutinagent.Sohisprospectsseemprettynarrowthosewhomightengagewithhisnewcenter
willlikelybethosewhostandtobenefitfromarelationshipwiththeRussianpoliticalandbusinesselite.
YakuninscentercouldinvolveitselfwiththeMinskContactGroupYakuninhaspreviouslycooperatedwithBorisGryzlov,who
hasbeendesignatedRussiasrepresentativetotheContactGroup(Seethe8Januarynotes).Yakuninscentercould,forexample,
comeupwithadraftUkrainianconstitution,whichwouldneverbetakenseriously,butcouldbeusedtodefendRussianpositions
ontheDonbass.
NeitherYakuninnorKudrinhaveanofficialspotinthesystem.Nevertheless,Kudrinisconsideredamemberoftheteam
TheboundariesbetweenstateandpublicorganizationsheadedbyPutincomradesaregraduallybeingobliterated.Thestate
anditsinstitutionsaredissolvingintoasystemofinformaltieswhicharenotcapableofreplacingstateadministration.Thesplitting
upoftheverticalisoneofthemostinterestingprocessinlate-PutineraRussia.
Comment:Yakuninhasshownaninterestingeo-politics,Russiasroleintheworld,andOrthodoxChurchmattersfor
alongtime.HeisknownasanOrthodoxChekistinPutinscircle.Itstruethathisintentionmayhavebeento
parallelKudrinasamemberoftheteamoutsidetheformalchannelsofvlast,butthefirstarticlesuggeststhathis
offeringhisservicesinthatrolehasbeenrebuffed.Why?WhywasKudrinacceptedinsucharoleandYakunin
apparentlynot?DidithavesomethingtodowithmismanagementandcorruptionatRussianRailwaysduringthe
crisis?DidPutinseeYakuninasoneofthosecomplicatingmattersfortheKremlininthemiddleofaneconomiccrisis?
Inthatcontext,maybeYakuninsofferdidntlooktooattractivetoPutin,whohasusuallytakencareofhisfriendswith
somekindofsinecure.ThefactthatYakuninwasnotapparentlyofferedanimportantpostinFederationCouncilmay
indicatethatPutinwassouronhimbeforeYakuninsproposal.ItistruethatKudrinalsoappearedtostepintoa
sensitiveareainofferinghisservicesduringtheprotestwaveandIwonderedabouthowmuchdistrustPutinmight
haveforhimsubsequently.ButmaybePutinfiguredhemightneedKudrinsexpertiseatsomepoint.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/putins-alleged-son-in-law-is-russias-latest-billionaire--
forbes/555639.html
ThemanreportedtobeRussianPresidentVladimirPutin'sson-in-lawhasbecomethecountry'slatestdollarbillionaire,
theRussianversionofForbesmagazinereportedonTuesday.
KirillShamalov,33,whoaccordingtotheReutersnewsagencyisthehusbandofPutin'sdaughterKaterinaTikhonova,
swelledhisfortuneto$1.2billionfollowingthesaleofastakeingasandpetrochemicalcompanySiburtoChina's
SinopecinDecember,Forbessaid.Shamalovhada21percentstakeinSiburbeforethesale,accordingtoForbes.See
the21Decembernotes.
HedidnotcommenttoForbesonthefigures.
ShamalovistheyoungestsonofNikolaiShamalov,alongtimefriendofPutin'sandshareholderinBankRossiya,which
U.S.officialshavedescribedasthepersonalbankoftheRussianelite.
AReutersreportlastyearidentifiedTikhonovaasPutin'sdaughterandclaimedthatsheandShamalovtogetherowned
assetsworthabout$2billionincludingamulti-million-dollarvillainFrance.
Seeyesterdaysnotes.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/chinas-economic-turmoil-ruins-russias-new-year/555714.html
NewfearsoverChinaseconomyandsharpfallsinthepriceofoilhaveworsenedtheoutlookforRussiaasittriesto
emergefromrecession.
Thepriceofcrude,thelinchpinofRussiaseconomy,fellalmost20percentinthefirsttwoweeksofJanuarytojustabove
$30perbarrelafterChinesestockindexestumbledmorethan10percentinthefirstdaysoftheyear.
WhiletheoilpricefallsthreatenedtoderailhopesforaneconomicrecoveryinRussia,theturmoilonthestockmarkets
deepenedfearsthatChineseeconomicgrowth,whichhaspoweredcommoditypricesandtheglobaleconomy,could
declinefasterthanexpected.ThismayhaveseriousconsequencesforMoscowkeepingthepriceofcommodities
lowerforlongerandweakeningastrategictradepartner.
ForRussia,thisisveryunpleasantnews,saidYevgenyNadorshin,chiefeconomistatAFKSistema,amajorRussian
conglomerate.
Astheoilpriceplunged,Russiasworstcasescenarioappearedtobecomingtrue.Therublefollowedtheoilprice
downward,weakening4percentinthefirsttwoweeksofJanuarytoaround76.5againsttheU.S.dollarnearitslowest
sincethecrisisof1998andlessthanhalfitsvaluetwoyearsago.
FinanceMinisterAntonSiluanovsaidattheGaidarForuminMoscowthathisbudget,whichreceivesaroundhalfits
revenuesfromtheenergyindustry,wouldbalanceonlyat$82perbarrel,accordingtotheReutersnewsagency.
Predictinganaverageoilpriceof$40fortheyear,hesaidthebudgetmustadapttonewrealitiesorRussiawouldseea
repeatofthedisastrousfinancialcrisisof1998-99.FormoreonSiluanov,seetheitembelow.
Healsosaidgovernmentdepartmentsweredrawingup10percentspendingcutsinnon-protectedareas.
Alreadyinitslongestrecessionsincethe1990saftershrinkinganestimated3.7percentlastyear,theeconomycould
contractbyanother2-3percentin2016ifoilpricesaverage$35perbarrel,theCentralBanksaidinDecember,whilethe
budgetdeficitwouldexpandandcurrencyreservesdepleted.
AsurveybystatepollsterVTsIOMpublishedinearlyJanuaryfoundthatmorethanhalfofRussians52percent
thoughtthehardesttimesforthecountrywereyettocome.
StockmarketvolatilityinChinasuggeststhattheycouldberight.Chinaseconomyhasbeenthemaindriverofglobal
demandforcommodities,andaslowingofChinesegrowthwouldexacerbatethepriceslump.
AWorldBankreportinearlyJanuarysaidaone-percentfallinChinasgrowthratewouldreducethevalueofcommodities
byaround6percentovertwoyears,andwarnedofaprotractedperiodoflowcommoditypricesincomingyears.
Oversupplyhasalreadysharplyloweredthecostofoil,gasandmetals,ofwhichRussiaisalsoamajorproducer.Energy
pricesfellby41percentlastyearandindustrialmetalsby24percent,accordingtotheS&PGoldmanSachsCommodity
Index.
AnotherthreattopricesisifChinamovestostimulateitseconomy.MorganStanleysaidinaJanuaryreportthatarapid
devaluationoftheChinesecurrencydesignedtoboostitsexportscouldsendoilintothe$20s[perbarrel]itslowest
in15years.
Ontopofthat,astrengtheningU.S.dollarispushingdownpricesbymakingitmoreexpensiveforthoseusingother
currenciestobuydollar-tradedcommodities.
Themovementofthesetwocurrenciesismutuallyreinforcing,MorganStanleysaidaweakerChineseeconomy
encouragesflighttothedollar,whileastrongerdollarincreasesthetemptationforChinesepolicymakerstodevalue.
PresidentVladimirPutininaninterviewwithGermanysBildnewspaperinearlyJanuarytriedtocastcommoditieslow
pricesasablessingindisguise,sayingthatwhenoilpriceswerehighitwasverydifficultforustoresistspendingoil
revenuestocovercurrentexpenses,andthenewrealitywouldbeanincentivetorebalancetheeconomy.
Butalackofavailableinvestmentcapitalhasstifleddiversification.Andamidaslumpinincomesandconsumer
spending,Russiascommoditiessectorisoneofthefewmajorindustriestobefaringrelativelywell,analystssaid.
Theweakrublehasallowedenergy,metalsandminingcompanies,whichearnexportrevenuesindollars,tomaintain
incomesinrubleterms.Meanwhile,Russianproducershavebecomemuchmorecompetitiveonglobalmarketsthanks
tohugefallsinthecostoflaborthathaveloweredproductioncosts.
ThecostoflaborinRussiahasfallentorivalthatofChina,saidValeryMironov,deputydirectoroftheCenterof
DevelopmentattheHigherSchoolofEconomics,aMoscowuniversity.
However,newinvestmentinproductionhasbeenlimitedbysanctionsandtherecessionathome.Andifpricesremain
lowforanextendedperiodoftime,evenRussiancompanieswillbeforcedtoretrench,analystssaid.
Inthelongerterm,worriesoverChinesegrowthalsostrikeRussianinterestsinadeeperway,knockingconfidencein
ChinaasafinancialallyforMoscow.
FollowingabreakdowninrelationswiththeWestfollowingRussiasannexationofCrimeain2014andmorerecently
withTurkeyovertheshootingdownofaRussianwarplaneontheTurkish-SyrianborderMoscowhaslookedtobuild
relationswithdynamicemergingmarkets,particularlywithChina.
HopesofafloodofChinesecapitalintoRussiafailedtomaterializefollowingtheUkrainecrisis,butthelonger-termaimof
hitchingRussiatoeast-Asiangrowthremained.
Thatdecisionnowlooksincreasinglyflawed,saidNeilShearing,chiefemergingmarketseconomistatCapital
Economics.Russiaspivottotheeastandhopethatdevelopingnationswouldbecometheengineofglobalgrowthhave
beenunderminedbyrecentevents,hesaid.
Afull-blowncrisisisunlikelythankstoChinasmassiveforeignexchangereserves.ButincreasingfearsoflowerChinese
growtharecomingastheUnitedStatesbeginstoliftinterestrates,fuelingamassivereallocationofcapitalfrom
emergingmarketstodevelopedonesandsappingstrengthfromemergingeconomies,manyofwhichareheavily
indebted.
Thatisn'tthewayRussiaplannedit.AllbetswereonChina,saidSistemasNadorshin.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russia-must-cut-spending-or-suffer-financial-crash--finance-
minister/555640.html
Russiawillneedtomakecutstogovernmentspendinginresponsetothenewrealitiesofaprolongedperiodoflowoil
prices,FinanceMinisterAntonSiluanovsaidWednesday.
Siluanov,whoseministryreliesontheenergyindustryforabouthalfitsincome,saidthecurrentbudgetfor2016would
needanaverageoilpriceof$82tobalance.Crudeiscurrentlytradingatjustover$30perbarrel.
SpeakingattheGaidarForuminMoscow,Siluanovsaidthebudgetshouldberecalculatedtoassumeanaverageoil
pricefortheyearof$40,theReutersnewsagencyreported.
"Ourtaskistoadaptourbudgettothenewrealities,"Reutersquotedhimassaying."Therearestillalotofdecisionsto
bemadewhenitcomestobudgetpolicy."
Ifwedon'tdothat,wewillseearepeatofwhathappenedin1998-99,"headded,accordingtonewsagencyInterfax,
referringtothegovernmentdefaultandeconomiccrashthatfollowed.
Russiangovernmentdepartmentshavealreadybeenorderedtosubmitproposalsfor10percentcutsinnon-essential
spendingtotalingmorethan500billionrubles($6.5billion),Siluanovsaid.
Thecurrentbudgetfor2016,adoptedlatelastyear,assumesa$50oilpriceandadeficitof3percentofGDP.The
FinanceMinistryinDecemberwarnedthat$40oilwouldinflatethedeficittoaround5percentandexhaustRussia's$59-
billion-dollarreservefundbytheendoftheyear.
Speakingatthesameforum,PrimeMinisterDmitryMedvedevsaid:"Oneneedstopreparefortheworstscenario,"
accordingtoReuters.
Russia'seconomyisalreadymiredinitslongestrecessionsinceVladimirPutincametopowerin1999.Outputis
expectedtohavecontractedby3.7percentlastyear,andtheCentralBankwarnedinDecemberthatifthepriceofoil
averaged$35in2016theeconomywouldshrinkafurther2-3percentthisyear.
From: StephenBurant<sburant@verizon.net>
Senttime: 01/10/201609:23:30AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:IsFascismBack?byRobertO.Paxton-ProjectSyndicate
Thanks.I'llreadthearticle,butinmyviewtheanswerisNo.
OnSunday,January10,20167:40AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/is-fascism-back-by-robert-o--paxton-2016-01
IsFascismBack?
NEWYORKIn2015,fascismonceagainbecamethehighest-octanepoliticalepithetingeneraluse.Of
course,thetemptationtoapplythefascismlabelisalmostoverwhelmingwhenweconfrontlanguageand
behaviorthatsuperficiallyresemblesthatofHitlerandMussolini.Atthemoment,itisbeingwidelyappliedto
casesasdisparateasDonaldTrump,theTeaParty,theNationalFrontinFrance,andradicalIslamist
assassins.But,thoughthetemptationtocallsuchactorsfascistisunderstandable,itshouldberesisted.
Atitscreationinthe1920s(firstinItalyandtheninGermany),fascismwasaviolentreactionagainsta
perceivedexcessofindividualism.ItalywasscornedandGermanywasdefeatedinWorldWarI,Mussoliniand
Hitlerclaimed,becausedemocracyandindividualismhadsappedthemofnationalunityandwill.
Sothetwoleadersputtheirfollowersintouniformsandtriedtoregimenttheirthoughtsandactions.Oncein
power,theytriedtoextenddictatorshiptoeverycorneroflife.Evensports,underMussolini,weretobe
organizedandsupervisedbythestateagencycalledilDopolavoro.
Thefascistssetthemselvesup(andacquiredelitesupport)astheonlyeffectivebarriertotheotherpolitical
movementthatsurgedfollowingWorldWarI:Communism.Tointernationalsocialismthefascistsopposeda
nationalsocialism,andwhiletheycrushedsocialistpartiesandabolishedindependentlaborunions,theynever
foramomentquestionedthestatesobligationtomaintainsocialwelfare(exceptforinternalenemiessuchas
Jews,ofcourse).
ThemovementthatcallsitselftheIslamicStatemayseemtofitthistemplateratherwell.Itsfollowerswillsand
personalidentitiesaresubordinatedtothemovement,allthewaytotheultimateself-abnegation:suicide.But
therearefundamentaldifferencesaswell.
TheIslamicStateislessastatethanawould-becaliphate,devotedtothesupremacyofareligioninawaythat
cutsacrossandeventhreatensexistingnation-states.Centralauthorityremainsinconspicuous,andpolicyand
operationalinitiativeisdispersedtolocalcells,withouttheneedforageographiccore.
Thefascistswerenationalists,rootedinnation-statesanddevotedtothestrengtheningandaggrandizementof
thosestates.Thefascistleadersandregimesdidtheirbesttosubordinatereligiontostatepurposes.Atmost,
wemightidentifyintheIslamicStateasub-speciesofreligioustotalitarianismbutitisfundamentallydistinct
fromclassicalfascismscentralizedseculardictatorshipsandglamorizedleaders.
TheTeaPartyisatthefarthestremovefromfascismsstate-enhancingnature.Withitsoppositiontoallformsof
publicauthorityanditsfuriousrejectionofanyobligationtoothers,itisbettercalledright-winganarchism.Itis
individualismrunamok,adenialofanycommunityobligations,theveryoppositeofafascistappealtothe
supremacyofcommunalobligationsoverindividualautonomy.
TheNationalFront,ofcourse,haditsrootsinVichyFrance,anditsfounder,Jean-MarieLePen,long
expressedcontemptfortheFrenchrepublicantradition.ButitsemergingsuccessnowadaysunderLePens
daughter,Marine,isatleastpartlyduetothepartysefforttodistanceitselffromitsstreet-fighting,Holocaust-
denyingpast.
DonaldTrumpisaspecialcasealtogether.Superficially,heseemstohaveborrowedanumberoffascistthemes
forhispresidentialcampaign:xenophobia,racialprejudice,fearofnationalweaknessanddecline,
aggressivenessinforeignpolicy,areadinesstosuspendtheruleoflawtodealwithsupposedemergencies.His
hectoringtone,masteryofcrowds,andtheskillwithwhichheusesthelatestcommunicationstechnologiesalso
arereminiscentofMussoliniandHitler.
Andyetthesequalitiesareatmostderivativeoffascistthemesandstylestheunderlyingideologicalsubstance
isverydifferent,withtheentitlementsofwealthplayingagreaterrolethanfascistregimesgenerallytolerated.
Trumpsembraceofthesethemesandstylesismostlikelyamatteroftacticalexpediencyadecisiontaken
withlittleornothoughtabouttheiruglyhistory.Trumpisevidentlyaltogetherinsensitivetotheechoeshiswords
andoratoricalstyleevoke,whichshouldnotbesurprising,givenhisapparentinsensitivitytotheimpactofevery
otherinsultthathehurls.
Itistoobadthatwehavesofarbeenunabletofurnishanotherlabelwiththetoxicpoweroffascismforthese
abhorrentpeopleandmovements.Wewillhavetomakedowithmoreordinarywords:religiousfanaticismfor
theIslamicState,reactionaryanarchismfortheTeaParty,andself-indulgentdemagogueryonbehalfof
oligarchyforDonaldTrump.Therearefringemovementstoday,suchasAryanNationsintheUnitedStatesand
GoldenDawninGreece,thatdrawopenlyuponNazisymbolismandemployphysicalviolence.Theterm
fascistisbetterlefttothem.
Senttime: 01/10/201604:40:37AM
To: StephenBurant<sburant@verizon.net>
BCc: acrotto@us-state.osis.gov
Subject: IsFascismBack?byRobertO.Paxton-ProjectSyndicate
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/is-fascism-back-by-robert-o--paxton-2016-01
IsFascismBack?
NEWYORKIn2015,fascismonceagainbecamethehighest-octanepoliticalepithetingeneraluse.Ofcourse,the
temptationtoapplythefascismlabelisalmostoverwhelmingwhenweconfrontlanguageandbehaviorthatsuperficially
resemblesthatofHitlerandMussolini.Atthemoment,itisbeingwidelyappliedtocasesasdisparateasDonaldTrump,the
TeaParty,theNationalFrontinFrance,andradicalIslamistassassins.But,thoughthetemptationtocallsuchactors
fascistisunderstandable,itshouldberesisted.
Atitscreationinthe1920s(firstinItalyandtheninGermany),fascismwasaviolentreactionagainstaperceivedexcessof
individualism.ItalywasscornedandGermanywasdefeatedinWorldWarI,MussoliniandHitlerclaimed,because
democracyandindividualismhadsappedthemofnationalunityandwill.
Sothetwoleadersputtheirfollowersintouniformsandtriedtoregimenttheirthoughtsandactions.Onceinpower,they
triedtoextenddictatorshiptoeverycorneroflife.Evensports,underMussolini,weretobeorganizedandsupervisedby
thestateagencycalledilDopolavoro.
Thefascistssetthemselvesup(andacquiredelitesupport)astheonlyeffectivebarriertotheotherpoliticalmovementthat
surgedfollowingWorldWarI:Communism.Tointernationalsocialismthefascistsopposedanationalsocialism,andwhile
theycrushedsocialistpartiesandabolishedindependentlaborunions,theyneverforamomentquestionedthestates
obligationtomaintainsocialwelfare(exceptforinternalenemiessuchasJews,ofcourse).
ThemovementthatcallsitselftheIslamicStatemayseemtofitthistemplateratherwell.Itsfollowerswillsandpersonal
identitiesaresubordinatedtothemovement,allthewaytotheultimateself-abnegation:suicide.Buttherearefundamental
differencesaswell.
TheIslamicStateislessastatethanawould-becaliphate,devotedtothesupremacyofareligioninawaythatcutsacross
andeventhreatensexistingnation-states.Centralauthorityremainsinconspicuous,andpolicyandoperationalinitiativeis
dispersedtolocalcells,withouttheneedforageographiccore.
Thefascistswerenationalists,rootedinnation-statesanddevotedtothestrengtheningandaggrandizementofthosestates.
Thefascistleadersandregimesdidtheirbesttosubordinatereligiontostatepurposes.Atmost,wemightidentifyinthe
IslamicStateasub-speciesofreligioustotalitarianismbutitisfundamentallydistinctfromclassicalfascismscentralized
seculardictatorshipsandglamorizedleaders.
TheTeaPartyisatthefarthestremovefromfascismsstate-enhancingnature.Withitsoppositiontoallformsofpublic
authorityanditsfuriousrejectionofanyobligationtoothers,itisbettercalledright-winganarchism.Itisindividualismrun
amok,adenialofanycommunityobligations,theveryoppositeofafascistappealtothesupremacyofcommunal
obligationsoverindividualautonomy.
TheNationalFront,ofcourse,haditsrootsinVichyFrance,anditsfounder,Jean-MarieLePen,longexpressedcontempt
fortheFrenchrepublicantradition.ButitsemergingsuccessnowadaysunderLePensdaughter,Marine,isatleastpartly
duetothepartysefforttodistanceitselffromitsstreet-fighting,Holocaust-denyingpast.
DonaldTrumpisaspecialcasealtogether.Superficially,heseemstohaveborrowedanumberoffascistthemesforhis
presidentialcampaign:xenophobia,racialprejudice,fearofnationalweaknessanddecline,aggressivenessinforeignpolicy,
areadinesstosuspendtheruleoflawtodealwithsupposedemergencies.Hishectoringtone,masteryofcrowds,andthe
skillwithwhichheusesthelatestcommunicationstechnologiesalsoarereminiscentofMussoliniandHitler.
Andyetthesequalitiesareatmostderivativeoffascistthemesandstylestheunderlyingideologicalsubstanceisvery
different,withtheentitlementsofwealthplayingagreaterrolethanfascistregimesgenerallytolerated.Trumpsembraceof
thesethemesandstylesismostlikelyamatteroftacticalexpediencyadecisiontakenwithlittleornothoughtabouttheir
uglyhistory.Trumpisevidentlyaltogetherinsensitivetotheechoeshiswordsandoratoricalstyleevoke,whichshouldnot
besurprising,givenhisapparentinsensitivitytotheimpactofeveryotherinsultthathehurls.
Itistoobadthatwehavesofarbeenunabletofurnishanotherlabelwiththetoxicpoweroffascismfortheseabhorrent
peopleandmovements.Wewillhavetomakedowithmoreordinarywords:religiousfanaticismfortheIslamicState,
reactionaryanarchismfortheTeaParty,andself-indulgentdemagogueryonbehalfofoligarchyforDonaldTrump.There
arefringemovementstoday,suchasAryanNationsintheUnitedStatesandGoldenDawninGreece,thatdrawopenly
uponNazisymbolismandemployphysicalviolence.Thetermfascistisbetterlefttothem.
Senttime: 01/08/201612:51:43PM
To: kbk1267<kbk1267@gmail.com>
Subject: Apple's(AAPL)AsianMiracleWon'tMaterialize,SoYouShouldSelltheStock-TheStreet
Apple'sAsianMiracleWon'tMaterialize,SoYou
ShouldSelltheStock
Correction:ThisarticlehasbeenupdatedtoshowthattheNikkeiAsianReviewreportedthattalkswith
ApplesuppliersindicateiPhoneproductionwillbecutbyabout30%inthecurrentquarter.
DistractedbythelevitationactsofAmazon,Alphabet,Facebook,MicrosoftandNetflix,investorshave
leftApple(AAPL-GetReport)forgotteninacorner.Apple'slatestearningsreportwaspositive,butthere's
averyseriousreasontobeconcernedaboutthisstock:iPhonesalesgrowth.
Appleisacomplicatedcompanywithlotsofmovingparts.Thisgivesinvestorstheopportunitytofocuson
manydifferentareasofitsbusiness.ApopulartopiciswhetherAppleshouldrepatriateitscash.Everyone
lovesarguingthenumbersandhowarepatriationwillaffectthestockprice.Althoughit'sfuntotalkabout,
FoundationInvestingunderstandsthatit'snotimportant.It'snotwhatactuallymovesthestockprice.
STOCKSTOBUY:TheStreet'sStocksUnder$10hasidentifiedahandfulofstockswithserious
upsidepotential.SeethemFREEfor14-days.
Investorsshouldfocusonlyonkeydrivers.Akeydriveristheonemetricthatovershadowsallother
metrics.It'swhatWallStreetpaysthemostattentionto.Astock'spricewillchangeinlinewithhowthat
metricchanges.
MustRead:These5BigBreakoutsAreBeating2016'sSlump:Must-SeeCharts
Forexample,permabearslovetorantabouthowridiculousAmazon'sprice-to-earningsratiois.Butindoing
so,theyfailtorealizehowthegrowthofAmazonWebServicestrumpsthatP/Eratio.AWSresultshave
excitedandexceededinvestor'sexpectationstimeandtimeagain.Theseresultsarewhatpropelthestock
price.WallStreetdoesn'tcareabouttheP/Eratiorightnow.AWSgrowthisthekeydriver.
InApple'scase,WallStreethasidentifiediPhonesalesasitskeydriver.Morespecifically,thefocusison
iPhonesalesinChinaandIndia.
It'snothardtofigureoutwhyiPhonesalesmattersomuch.Justtakealookatthesalesbreakdownfrom
Apple'smostrecentearningsreport:
CourtesyofApple
Initsfiscal2015fourthquarter,Applerecorded$51.5billioninrevenue.Ofthat,$32.2billioncamefrom
justiPhonesales.ThatmeanstheiPhonemakesupmorethan60%ofApple'srevenue!Everythingelsein
Apple'swarchestisminisculecomparedtoiPhonesales.SowheninvestorsthinkiPhonesalesareslowing
down,theygetnervous.
Takingacloserlookatthesenumbersshowsthatthesmartphonemarketismaturing.Almosteveryonein
thedevelopedworldwhowantsaniPhonealreadyhasone.There'snotmuchpotentialgrowthleft.Revenue
inthefiscalfourthquarterfortheAmericas,EuropeandJapanwasalmostthesameasitwasintheyear-
earlierquarter.
TheonlyrealgrowthavailableisinChina.Asseenabove,revenuefromChinaincreasedby99%yearover
yearinthelastquarter.Thisismultiplesofthegrowthrateofanyotheroperatingsegment.
ThechartbelowgivesfurtherinsightintohowChina'srevenuegrowthhasincreasedtodominateother
regions.

CourtesyofJackdawResearch
STOCKSTOBUY:TheStreet'sStocksUnder$10hasidentifiedahandfulofstockswithserious
upsidepotential.SeethemFREEfor14-days.
ApplebullsaredependingonChinatodrivefuturegrowth.TheyhopeitwillkeepAppleonitsepicruntoa
trillion-dollarmarketcap.
MustRead:5StocksUnder$10SettoSoar
Butweseelargeproblemswiththisnarrative.ThemacroeconomicpictureforChinahasn'tbeentherosiest
asoflate.Andthingsdon'tappeartobeimproving.ItwillbedifficultforChinatomeetsalesexpectationsin
thistypeofenvironment.
China'seconomicgrowthiscoolingbecauseitsdebtisreachinganunsustainablelevel.Debtiswhatfueled
muchoftheChineseeconomy'sincredibleriseinthelastfourtofiveyears.
China'sdebt-to-GDPisnowwellabove200%.ThisdebtloadactsasadeflationaryforceontheChinese
economy.Institutionsstruggletoservicetheirgrowingdebtcostsasdefaultsandnonperformingloansrise.In
response,theChinesegovernmenthasnochoicebuttoweakenitscurrency.
Whathasbeenborrowed,mustberepaid--ordevaluedaway.Andinsteadofrepaying,governmentsalmost
alwayschoosetodevalue.Chinaisnoexception.Aweakeryuanmakesiteasiertoservicedebtloads.Italso
stimulatesexportdemandbymakingChinesegoodscheaperintheglobalmarketplace.ThisRenminbi
Devaluationarticleoutlinesthemechanicsbehindthisnecessarydevaluation.
Belowisachartofthedollarvs.theyuan.Youcanseethatthedevaluationhasalreadystarted.The
People'sBankofChinahasbeguntoadjustitspegagainstthegreenbacktomakeitscurrencycheaper.
USDollartoChineseYuanExchangeRatedatabyYCharts
ThemacrodynamicsinChinaareamajorthreattoApple'sAsiangrowthstory.Theweakertheyuangets,
themoreexpensiveitbecomesforaChinesecitizentobuyaniPhone.ImaginewalkingintoaChineseApple
storeinthemidstofaneconomicslowdown.You'realreadystrugglingandnowontopofthatyouseeprices
(inyuan)rise!HowareyougoingtoaffordthatnewiPhone?
IndiaisagoodprecursorofwhatwillhappeninChina.IndiahasseenlukewarmiPhonesalesduetosimilar
foreign-exchangeheadwinds.
iPhonesinIndiaarecurrentlysellingbetween62,000and92,000rupeesdependingonthemodel.Thisis
8,500to9,500rupeesmorethanlastyear'slaunchprice.Thisisnotonlyduetoexchangerates,butalso
becausethetaxesonimportedsmartphoneshaveincreased.Itcosts11.5%moreintaxestobuyanimported
smartphonethisyearthanlastyear.
RetailstoresinIndiaareconfirminglacklusterdemandduetothesehigherprices.Somestoresaresaying
demandfortheiPhoneisonly10%-20%ofwhatitwaslastyear.Thestorescontinuetopileuptheir
inventoryinthesepoorconditions.
WithpessimisticdemandforiPhonesalesoverseas,theChina/Asiangrowthnarrativeisn'tstrikingachord
withinvestors.Analystscontinuetolowertheirestimatesforthenextearningsreport.ManyApplesuppliers
havealsocomeoutandguidedrevenuedownfornextquarter.AnalystsatMorganStanley,Raymond
James,BairdEquityResearch,andBankofAmerica,allcuttheirestimatesforiPhoneshipments.They
citedreductionsinbuildratesatAsiansuppliersasthereason.ArecentreportfromNikkeiAsianReview
alsosaidthattalkswithApplesuppliersindicatedthatiPhoneproductionwouldbecutbyabout30%inthe
currentquartercomparedwithApple'soriginalplans.Noneofthisisgoodnewsforacompanydependent
onitssmartphonesales.
OutsideoftheiPhone,Applehasn'tdonemuchwithitsproductstoexciteinvestors.Ithasthemeansand
cashtocreatesomethingground-breaking,butinsteadpreferstositonitsheels.Sincemid-2012,Applehas
revertedtoIBM'sstrategyofsharebuybacks.Howcreative....
AAPLAverageDilutedSharesOutstanding(Quarterly)databyYCharts
Managementhasashottorevivethemagicwithsomethingnewandexciting.Butuntilitchoosestotake
action,webelieveApple'sgrowthnarrativeisdead.InvestorswillcontinuetopassuponApple.Theywill
insteadhoponthemomentumtrainsofFacebook,Amazon,Netflix,MicrosoftandAlphabet.Those
companies'growthstoriesarefarmorepromising.
ThesheersizeofApple'smarketcapalsodamagesitsgrowthstory.It'salreadysobigthatfurtherlarge
gainsdon'tseemlikely.
AAPLMarketCapdatabyYCharts
Ontopofthat,Appleisalsooneofthemostwidelyownedstocksbyhedgefunds.It'sconsidereda"hedge
fundhotel."
Doyouknowwhathappenswhenthere'safireinahotel?Yougetabunchofguestsallrushingfortheexits
atthesametime,tramplingovereachother.
Ontheslightesthintofbadnewsorso-soperformance,thesehedgefundswillpulloutofApplefast.And
wheneveryoneissellinglikethere'snotomorrow,yougethugedropsinprice.
TheValeantmessisagreatexampleofwhatcanhappentoahedgefundhotel.Thedrawdownsareswift
andvicious.
IfyoutakealookatApple'spriceactionbelow,you'llseethetoppingprocessisalreadyplayingout.Ifyou
drawahorizontallineataround$105,itmarkssupportextendingbackmorethanayear.Thestockrecently
brokethroughthatline.Itwillonlydropfurtherfromhereasinvestorsstampedeoutofthestock.
AAPLdatabyYCharts
UntilApplemanagementfindssomethingnewtocaptivateWallStreet,webelievetheupsideforAppleis
limited.InvestorsshouldexitandcomebackwhenCookandthegangdecideto"cookup"somethingmore
meaningfulwiththeirwarchest.
SentfrommyiPad
Senttime: 01/08/201608:31:24AM
Subject: FW:Trump'sindefensibleremarksaboutVladimirPutin
From:paulroderickgregory[mailto:pgregory@stanford.edu]
To:EricThomasWakin
Subject:Trump'sindefensibleremarksaboutVladimirPutin
DearAll:
OthershavewrittenaboutTrump'sremarksaboutPutin.Ithinkthatthislistofparticularsisimportant.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2016/01/08/sevenwarningstodonaldtrumpaboutvladimirputin/
Forbes Welcome
www.forbes.com
Forbes Welcome page Forbes is a global media company, focusing on business, investing, technology,
entrepreneurship, leadership, and lifestyle.
Senttime: 12/25/201509:07:45AM
To: acrotto@us-state.osis.gov
Subject: RussiaandtheWest:NoEasyWayForwardinNewYear-CarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeace
RussiaandtheWest:NoEasyWayForwardin
NewYear
Thisyearhasseena"newnormal"inrelationsbetweenRussiaandtheWest:systemicconflictwithsmall
andoccasionalexamplesofcooperation.Comparedto2014,theyearoftheCrimeancrisis,warineastern
Ukraine,thetragicdowningofMH-17,WesternsanctionsagainstRussiaandacutedisputesoverSyria,2015
wasatleastasomewhatpositiveyear.ItstartedwithMinsk-IItalks,whichallowedtoreduceviolencein
Donbas,endedwithRussia,theUSandsomekeyEuropeanpowerstryingtofindmodusvivendiinSyria,
anddeliveredadealoverIraniannuclearprogram.Isitthenjustifiedtoexpectthatwemayseegradual
improvementofRussian-Westernrelations?Hardlyso.Asoberviewontheunderlyingissuesandonthe
politicalcalendarrequiresustoexpectanewlow.
Firstofall,therootsofconfrontationbetweenRussiaandtheWesthavenotbeenaddressed.Thegapof
mutualperceptionsiswidening.RussiaisseenbymostpolicymakersintheUSandEUasarevisionist
power,whichseekstochallengetheexistinginternationalnormsandunderminetheWesternprinciples.The
country'sleader,PresidentVladimirPutin,isportrayedasacowardlydictator,suppressingcivilrightsat
homeanddestabilizingRussia'sneighborsthroughhybridwarfare.IntheinternationaldomaintheKremlinis
supportingtheregimeofBasharal-Assad,whichisseenbytheWestasthecauseofprolongedconflictin
Syria.
InRussia,theUSisseenasaplayertryingallmeanstomaintainitsfadingglobaldominanceandcreating
problemsforrisingpowerslikeRussiaorChinathrough"colorrevolutions"andcreatingchaosintheMiddle
East.MoscowseesWesternsanctionsagainstRussiaorthecreationofnewtradeblocksliketheTrans-
PacificPartnershipasuseofeconomicweapons.Thesystemiclackoftrustbetweentheleadersand
societiesprecludesmeaningfuldialogueontheseissuesanytimesoon.
Akeymarkerfortheimprovedrelationswouldbetheroll-backofWesternsanctionsagainstRussia.Butthe
mostcrucialpartsofthesanctionsregimearelikelytostayinplacein2016.Thecriteriaforremovalof
sanctionsremainformalandaretiedtoMinskII.Moscowishighlyunwillingtoimplementseveralpartsof
theMinskdeal,includingfullwithdrawalofitstroopsfromeasternUkraineandreturnofcontroloverthe
bordertotheKievgovernment.EvenifsomeoftheEUmeasuresareabolished,USsanctionswillstayin
place.
TheprospectsforresolutionofSyrianconflictremaindubious.TheUSandRussiaarehighlyunlikelyto
formarealmilitarypartnershiptoeradicatetheself-proclaimedIslamicState.Moscow'skeygoalremains
supportingthecurrentregimeinDamask,soitcancontinueitsairraidsagainstmilitarygroupswhichare
definedas"moderate"bytheWest.
Evenifthemajorpowersachievesomeformofconsensus,regionalpowerswithcompetinginterestslike
Turkey,SaudiArabiaandIranhavepowerfultoolstounderminetheseefforts.Wideningconflictbetween
MoscowandAnkaraisyetanotherfactorblockingnormalizationoftherelationship.
Lastbutnotleast,thepoliticalcalendarintheUSandRussiasuggestsahighprobabilityofconflict.Allthe
majorcandidatesfortheUSpresidentialelectionsareveryhawkishonRussia,saveforDonaldTrump,so
debatesinpublicspacewillbefulloftoughlanguageandpersonalattacksonPutin.Inthisenvironmentthe
outgoingadministrationishighlyunlikelytodoanythingmeaningfultoimprovetherelationshipevenifit
chosetodoso.
InRussia,2016istheyearoftheStateDumaelections.Ifhistoryisanyguide,anti-Westernrhetoricwillbe
everywhere.WithlowcommoditypricesandprolongedmismanagementoftheeconomytheKremlinhasno
betterchoiceastoblameeconomictroublesonthehostileWest.
Recentexamplesofofficialreactiontooppositionactivists'investigationsintohigh-profilecorruptioncases
showthattheauthoritiesalwaysblametheseinvestigationsasCIA-orchestratedcampaignsagainst"innocent
officials."ManyalsoexpectfurthersuppressionofNGOs,humanrightsactivistsandelectionmonitoring
organizationsasthevotesapproach.
It'sveryhardtoimaginehowRussiaandtheWestcantalkconstructivelyunderthesecircumstances.
ThisarticleoriginallyappearedinGlobalTimes.
SentfrommyiPad
Senttime: 01/06/201612:06:46PM
Viewthisemailinyour
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INTHISISSUE
*MoscowleakclaimsRussiacollaboratingwithTalibanagainstIslamicState
*whileTatarstanipresidentexpressesdiscontentwithKremlinsTurkeypolicies
*CrimeabeginsnewyearcutofffromUkrainianelectricity

RussiaDecidesWhotheTerroristsAre

Attheendof2015,anunnamedKremlinofficialannouncedthatMoscowwasnowsharing
intelligenceabouttheIslamicStatewiththeAfghanTaliban,eventhoughtheTalibanremains
ontheRussianlistofterroristorganizations.PredictablytheTalibandeniedtheassertion
(Russianews.net,December26,2015).Butnoneofthisappearstohavebeenpickedupby
theRussian-languagemedia.ItmightnotbesurprisingthatMoscowdoesnotwantRussians
toknowitiscollaboratingwithoneterroristorganizationagainstanother,especiallyinviewof
thesensitivityinRussiaandCentralAsiatoanythinghavingtodowithAfghanistan.Butthere
alsohavebeennoRussiandenialsaboutthisissue,soitissafetoassumesuchaRussian-
Talibancollaborationmayindeedbetakingplace.

FormerFrenchleaderCharlesDeGaulleonceremarkedthatstatesarecoldmonsters.It,
therefore,shouldperhapsbeunsurprisingthatMoscowispursuingitsownbrandofdivide-
and-conquerpoliciesinthiscase.Nevertheless,theaforementionedannouncementcastsa
stark,ifnotlurid,lightonRussiasanti-terrorismpolicies.

SinceMoscowbeganitsmilitaryinterventioninSyria,ithasendlesslytrumpetedtheideathat
itissolelytheretofighttheIslamicStateandterrorists.PresidentVladimirPutinandhis
government,datingbacktothewarsinChechnyainthe1990sandearly2000s,havebeen
equallyadamantthatonecannotnotdistinguishbetweengoodandbadterrorists.Yet,that
isexactlywhatMoscowappearstobedoinghere.Moreover,thispolicycharacterizes
Russiasapproachacrosstheboard,notonlyinAfghanistan.Forthelastseveralmonths,
Russian-sponsoredterroristshavebeenconductingterroristbombingsinKharkiv,Kherson
andOdesa(UNIAN,December26,2015Khpg.org,June1,2015).Similarly,inSyria,as
manyobservershaverepeatedlypointedout,thevastmajorityofRussianattackshavenot
beenagainsttheIslamicState.Finally,inGaza,RussiahasneverbrandedeitherHamasor
Hezbollahasterroristseventhoughthey,especiallyHamas,arestillconductingterrorist
operationsandperiodicmissilelaunchesagainstIsrael.Indeed,HamasleaderKhaled
MashaalhasrepeatedlyvisitedMoscow,andhisorganizationconsidersRussiasrecognition
ofHamasasabreakthroughforthemovement(Al-monitor,June5,2014).
Tobesure,therecanbenodoubtofRussiasprofessedalarmabouttheIslamicState.
RussiasnewNationalSecurityStrategy,announcedonDecember31,2015(seeEDM,
January4, 5,2016),clearlylabelsterrorismasamajorthreattoRussia(Kremlin.ru,
December31,2015).Furthermore,in2014,Russiaannouncedthecreationoffiveregional
defenseheadquartersinRussiatoworkalongsidethenationaldefenseheadquartersand
coordinateallgovernmentagenciesagainstterrorism,amongotherthreats(Interfax,
December16,2014).Finally,itbearsnotingthatRussianconcernaboutapotentialvictoryin
Afghanistanbyterroristsgoesbackyears,andMoscowisnowoffering100,000AK-47sto
theAfghangovernmentforuseinitssecurityandcounter-terrorismoperations
(Thefronteirpost.com,December31,2015)
Yet,itremainsclearthatMoscowspolicyspecificallydistinguishesbetweenterroristswho
serveRussianinterestsandthosewhodonot,withthelatterbeingsubjecttoendless
stigmatizationifnotphysicalattack.Inaddition,itisclearfromthewarinUkraine,andfrom
RussiasearliereffortstothreatenGeorgiapriortotheirAugust2008war,thatterrorismisa
legitimateinstrumentofstatepolicyfortheKremlin.Themysteriousapartmentbombingsin
Moscowof1999haveneverbeensolved.Butanenormousamountofevidencepointsto
FSBinvolvementinthoseoperationstoprovokeawaragainstChechnyaandcatapultPutin
intothepresidency(see NorthCaucasusWeekly,January21,2004see EDMJune30,
2015).Morerecently,aformerKGBagenthasclaimedthatPutininitiatedtheplanthatledto
thebombingofaRussianflightfromSharmEl-Sheikhlastfall,killing224peopletojustifythe
warwithSyria(TheDailyMail,December25,2015)
Althoughnodefinitiveproofexistsineitherofthesetwolastcases,thereislittledoubtthat
Moscow,inpractice,viewstheuseofterrorismaswhollyinstrumentalandthatitshypocrisy
reflectsadeeplyingrainedpolicyapproach.Certainly,asillustratedbyRussiasnumerous
militaryexercises,itdoesnothesitatetoproclaimaterroristscenariotoconcealorcoverup
exerciseswhoserealpurposeislarge-scaleconventionalwarand/ortheinvasionof
neighboringcountries(seeRussiasZapad2013MilitaryExercise:LessonsforBaltic
RegionalSecurity,TheJamestownFoundation,December2015).Consequentlyobservers
shouldnotbeundulysurprisedthatMoscowpubliclyleakedthestoryofitsintelligence
collaborationwiththeTaliban,evenasitisprovidingarmstotheAfghangovernmenttofight
them.Inreality,suchopportunismisthehallmarkofRussianpolicy,andthereisnoreasonto
expectanyfundamentalchangein2016,evenasMoscowshoutsitsanti-terroristcredentials
inSyriafromtherooftops.
--StephenBlank
TatarstansPresidentDefiesKremlinEffortstoUniteRussiansagainstAnother
CommonEnemy
AnunexpectedresultofRussiasaggressiveforeignpolicyintheMiddleEasthasbeen
TatarstansoppositiontothedecisiontocuttieswithTurkey.AfteraTurkishF-16downeda
RussianwarplanethatallegedlycrossedfromSyriaintoTurkeysairspacelastNovember,
PresidentVladimirPutinvowedtopunishAnkaraforwhathecalledbackstabbing.The
RussiangovernmentthenseveredeconomictieswithTurkey,officiallyimposingsanctionsin
twoseparatepresidentialdecrees(Gazeta.ru,November28,2015andLenta.ru,December
28,2015).ThesanctionsendedorrestrictedtheactivitiesofTurkishcompaniesand
companiesownedbyTurkishcitizensinRussia,imposedavisaregime,andrestrictedexports
andimportsbetweenthetwocountries.SinceRussiaitselfisundersanctionsbytheWestern
countriesfortheannexationCrimeaandtheaggressivecovertwarineasternUkraine,some
expertssaythatRussianeconomicsanctionsagainstTurkeywillharmRussiamorethan
Turkey(Bfm.ru,November29,2015).
ItcomesasnosurprisethatmanyRussianconsumersareunhappyaboutthebusiness
restrictionsimposedbytheRussiangovernmentonTurkey.However,whatcameasashock
tomanyobserverswastheopenoppositiontoVladimirPutinbyaleaderofoneofRussias
regionsTatarstansPresidentRustamMinnikhanov.OnDecember21,Minnikhanovtold
journaliststhatTurkishbusinesseswouldcontinuetooperateintherepublic,contradictingnot
onlyPutinsdecreestargetingTurkishbusinesses,butalsothehystericalanti-Turkishmedia
campaigninRussia.MinnikhanovtriedtoavoidadirectcollisionwithMoscowbyskillfully
reinterpretingPutinsownwords.Icanrefertowhatourpresidentsaid,thatTurkeyisa
friendlynation,Minnikhanovsaid.ForTatars,theTurksareabrotherlypeople.Webelong
tothesamelanguagegroupandtothesamereligion.Whatthepresidentsaidisaveryserious
supportforus,becausewehavelargeTurkishinvestmentprojects.Theyhavebelievedinour
president.TatarstanspresidentestimatedTurkishinvestmentsinhisrepublicat$1.5billion
andsaidheexpectedmoreTurkishinvestment.Interestingly,Minnikhanovwentevenfurtherin
criticizingRussiangovernmentpolicies,especiallythepersistentanti-Americanpropaganda
campaign.IampreparedtobefriendswitheverybodywhoinvestsintoTatarstan,hesaid.
Skincolor,nationality,religiondonotmatter!TheysaythatAmericansdonotlikeus.They
builttwofactorieshereinourspecialeconomiczoneandeverythingisfine,weworktogether
well(Rbc.ru,December22,2015).
TatarstansmuteddiatribeagainsttheKremlinspolicieswasthefirstvividsignalofbrewing
tensionsbetweenVladimirPutinandRussiasregionalelites.OneSovietapologisteven
expressedfearsthatTatarstanmightdototheRussianFederationwhatUkrainedidtothe
UnionofSovietSocialistRepublics(USSR)namely.initiatetheprocessofitsdismantlement
(Forum-msk.org,January5).TatarstanisevidentlythechampionofregionalisminRussia,
withtheresourcestopreserveitsautonomy.Tatarstansgovernorstillhastheofficialtitleof
president,eventhoughMoscowtriedtochangehistitletohead,asinRussiasother
republics.TatarstanessentiallyignoredtheRussianfederallawthatexplicitlyprohibitsregional
governorsfromusingthetitlepresident(Gazeta.ru,December30,2015).
TatarintellectualsremainhopefulthatRussian-Turkishrelationswillbecomenormalagainafter
arelativelybriefdeterioration.EnemyNumberOneinRussiacomesandgoesquickly,
saidRafaelKhakimov,ananalystandpoliticalactivistinKazan.Bynextsummer,the
tensionswilllikelydissipate(Svoboda.org,January5).
TheoptimismofTatarsaboutRussian-Turkishrelationsmaybeprematurebecausethe
conflictcontinuestodevelop,andneitherVladimirPutinnorRecepErdoanofTurkey
appearswillingtobackdown.RussiasretreatfromtheMiddleEastwouldprobablycreate
theconditionsforreconciliationbetweenthetwocountries,butitwouldalsobeseenasa
defeatinRussia,especiallyiftheSyrianregimefalls.Atthesametime,Turkeyhasbeena
majordestinationforRussiantourists,sotheRussiangovernmentwillbeunderpressurenext
summertoreopentraveltoTurkey.NoothercountryexiststoreplaceTurkeyasasummer
destinationforRussiantourists,especiallygiventhefactthatEgypthasalsobecomeofflimits
sinceabombexplodedonaRussianairlinerflyingfromanEgyptianresorttoRussialast
October.
ThesurprisebacklashfromTatarstanspresidentindicatesthatthepatienceofRussian
regionalelites,andpossiblytheMoscowelites,iswearingthin.Theelitesmusthavethought
thattheeconomicsituationinRussiawouldimprovequickly,butitisbecomingworseandis
projectedtodeterioratefurther.Undertheseconditions,Putinsstrategyforpoliticalsurvivalis
topretendthatRussiaissurroundedbyenemiesandthepeopleneedtorallyaroundflag.
Thisstrategy,however,doesnotseemtobeworking,accordingtowell-knownKremlincritic
AndreiPiontkovsky(Svoboda.org,January5),becauseRussiansingeneralarenotprepared
toshoulderfinancialburdensforcausesthatseemincreasinglydubiousandunworthy.The
stanceofTatarstanspresidentisoneoftheboldestsignalstotheKremlintodatethatRussian
regionsareunhappywiththecountryspoliticalcourse,whichisleadingtocollisionswith
nearlyeverypowerinitsneighborhood.
--ValeryDzutsati
UkraineStopsPowerSupplytoRussian-AnnexedCrimea
ShortlybeforeitsresidentsrangintheNewYear,theRussian-annexedpeninsulaofCrimea
againfounditselfentirelywithoutUkrainianelectricity.AsinNovember,thiswascausedby
unidentifiedsaboteurswhoblewupapowertransmissionlinetowerinUkrainesKherson
province,whichbordersCrimea.However,thistime,Kyivisunlikelytorestorethepower
supply.First,UkraineselectricitycontractwithRussiaregardingsupplyingCrimeahas
expired,andbothKyivandMoscowarereluctanttosignanewoneforpoliticalreasons.
Andsecond,CrimeadependsonpowerfrommainlandUkrainetoamuchlesserextentthan
inNovember,asRussiainDecemberboosteditsownsuppliestotheoccupiedpeninsulaand
flewinpowergenerators.
AfallenelectricitypylonwasdiscoveredbyemergencycrewsneartheUkrainiantownof
KakhovkaintheearlyhoursofDecember31(112.ua,December31,2015).Asin
November,Ukrainianactivistsweremostprobablybehindtheblast,andtheUkrainian
securityservicehasbeenreportedlyquestioningmembersofthefar-rightparamilitarygroup
RightSector(Hromadske.tv,January4,2016).Ukrainequicklyrepairedthepylonandthe
transmissionline.Butthepowersupplywasnotrestored(112.ua,January1,2016),because
theRussian-UkrainiancontractonsupplyingelectricitytoCrimeaexpiredonDecember31,
andnonewcontracthasbeensigned.
InDecember2014,whenCrimeacouldnotsurvivewithoutUkrainianpower,Moscow
coercedKyivintosigningthecontract.KyivagreedtocontinuesendingpowertoCrimea,
whichhadbeenillegallyannexedbyRussiainMarch2014,inreturnforRussiaagreeingto
supplyelectricitytoEasternUkraine,whichwasshortofpowerbecauseofthewarwith
Moscow-backedmilitantsthere.However,asoftheendof2015,Ukrainenolongerneeds
Russianelectricitybothbecausesomeinfrastructurewasrestoredintheeastthankstothe
ceasefire,andbecausepowerconsumptionfellinUkrainein2015,duetotheeconomic
recessionandthankstoawarmfallandwinter(UNIAN,December15,2015).
Consequently,KyivseesnoeconomicneedfornewelectricityagreementswithRussia.In
earlyDecember,nolongerfearingretributionfromRussianpowersuppliers,Kyivrestoredthe
electricityflowtoCrimeathroughonlyoneofthefourpowerlinesthathadbeendamagedin
November.Pro-MoscowmilitantsintheDonbasareastoppedcoaldeliveriestoUkrainian
powerplantsinresponse,butUkrainehadmanagedtoalreadystoreenoughcoalforthe
winter,sotherewasnoimmediatedamagetotheeconomy(BBCNewsUkrainianservice,
November27,2015Rian.com.ua,December8,2015).
Politically,KyivfeelstheurgetopunishMoscowandpro-MoscowCrimeansforthe
annexation.Therefore,policedidnotinterferewhenUkrainian(includingfar-rightgroups)and
CrimeanTataractivistspreventedemergencycrewsfromfixingtheexplodedpowerpylonsin
KhersonprovincefortwoweeksinlateNovemberandearlyDecember.OnNovember23,
UkrainianPrimeMinisterArseniyYatsenyukurgedprosecutorstopunishthosewhowroteup
theCrimeanpowercontractbecauseinitswording,hesaid,itprovidedforsuppliestoa
federaldistrictofRussia,ratherthantotheUkrainianCrimeanAutonomousRepublic
(Pravda.com.ua,November23,2015).KyivsupportstheviewexpressedbytheCrimean
Tatarleadersinexile,MustafaCemilevandRefatChubarov,whoaremembersofPresident
PetroPoroshenkosfactioninparliament.Theyarguethatifanewcontractissignedwith
Russia,itmustprovideforpowersupplytoaRussian-occupiedUkrainianterritory,rather
thantoafederaldistrictofRussia(Interfax-Ukraine,December30,2015).
Russiaisnotpreparedtobackdown,however.DuringthesevereblackoutinNovember,it
flewinpowergeneratorsfromacrosstheKerchStraitinordertocoverbasicpowerneeds.It
alsolaidseveralpowercablesacrossthestraittoCrimeainDecembertheso-called
energybridge(see EDM,December14,2015).Asaresult,Crimeasdependenceon
Ukrainianelectricityquicklyfelltoaround25percentfrom7080percent.Furthermore,
MoscowclaimsthattherewillbenoneedforUkrainianelectricityinCrimeaatallafterMay
2016,whenmorepowercableswilllinkKrasnodarterritorytoCrimea(Kommersant,
December21,2015UNIAN,December24,2015).
Forthetimebeing,however,CrimeareliesonUkrainianelectricity,sotheKremlinhasbeen
busyshapingpublicopinioninordertojustifytherecurrentblackouts.SergeyAksyonov,the
flamboyantKremlin-appointedheadofCrimea,saidinDecemberthathesharedtheopinions
ofthenumerousCrimeanswhowrotetohimonsocialnetworksthatpowerpurchasesfrom
Ukraineshouldbestopped(Gazetacrimea.ru,December8,2015).Shortlyafterwards,
VladimirPutininstructedthegovernmentnottosignanewpowercontractonCrimeawith
Ukraine(Gazeta.ru,December9,2015).Mostrecently,Kremlinpollstersreportedthat93.1
percentofCrimeanresidentsdidnotwantanewpowercontractwithUkraine,ifthis
documentreferredtoCrimeaaspartofUkraine,ratherthanpartofRussia.Thepollwas
conductedbyMoscow-basedWCIOM,apparentlywithinhoursafterreceivingordersfrom
Putin,whichraisesdoubtsaboutitsaccuracy(TASS,January1,2016).
Meanwhile,themostrecentcoldwavehasagaincausedtwomillionCrimeansdeprivedof
Ukrainianpowertosuffer.AsofJanuary3,Crimeawasrunningon930megawattsof
electricity,including417megawattssuppliedfromKrasnodarterritory,comparedto1,350
megawattsneeded,accordingtoarepresentativeoftheRussianemergenciesministry(RIA
Novosti,January3,2016).Almostcertainly,CrimeansareinforaharshwinterifRussiaand
Ukrainedonotcometoanewagreementsoon.
--OlegVarfolomeyev
Forward ReadLater
Availablenowforfreedownload,Zapad-2013:AViewFromHelsinki.Lookforothertitlesthrough
theJamestownStoreatjamestown.org/store.
ThisOccasionalPapercloselyanalyzesMoscow'smassiveZapad-2013exercise,carried
outacrosswesternRussiaandBelarusinSeptember2013,andoffersaFinnish
perspectiveonthemodernizationgainsachievedbytheRussianarmedforcesinrecent
years,aswellastherespectiveareaswheretheseforcesaretryingtomake
improvementstotheirstrategicshortcomings.
Availableforfreedownload,ConflictZones:NorthCaucasusandtheWesternBalkansCompared.
LookforothertitlesthroughtheJamestownStoreatjamestown.org/store.
InConflictZones,JanuszBugajskienhancesourunderstandingofthecausesandconsequencesof
thecurrentconflictsintheNorthCaucasusandextrapolateslikelyscenariosintheregions
development.HecomparesandcontrastsconditionsintheNorthCaucasuswiththeformerYugoslav
federationintheWesternBalkans,amulti-ethnicstatestructurethatcouldnotcontaininternally
generatedpoliticalandethnicdisputes.
arethoseoftheindividualauthorsanddonotnecessarilyrepresentthoseoftheJamestown
111116thSt.,NW
Suite#320
Washington,DC20036
202-483-8888(phone)
202-483-8337(fax)
Senttime: 12/25/201509:07:45AM
To: acrotto@us-state.osis.gov
Subject: RussiaandtheWest:NoEasyWayForwardinNewYear-CarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeace
RussiaandtheWest:NoEasyWayForwardin
NewYear
Thisyearhasseena"newnormal"inrelationsbetweenRussiaandtheWest:systemicconflictwithsmall
andoccasionalexamplesofcooperation.Comparedto2014,theyearoftheCrimeancrisis,warineastern
Ukraine,thetragicdowningofMH-17,WesternsanctionsagainstRussiaandacutedisputesoverSyria,2015
wasatleastasomewhatpositiveyear.ItstartedwithMinsk-IItalks,whichallowedtoreduceviolencein
Donbas,endedwithRussia,theUSandsomekeyEuropeanpowerstryingtofindmodusvivendiinSyria,
anddeliveredadealoverIraniannuclearprogram.Isitthenjustifiedtoexpectthatwemayseegradual
improvementofRussian-Westernrelations?Hardlyso.Asoberviewontheunderlyingissuesandonthe
politicalcalendarrequiresustoexpectanewlow.
Firstofall,therootsofconfrontationbetweenRussiaandtheWesthavenotbeenaddressed.Thegapof
mutualperceptionsiswidening.RussiaisseenbymostpolicymakersintheUSandEUasarevisionist
power,whichseekstochallengetheexistinginternationalnormsandunderminetheWesternprinciples.The
country'sleader,PresidentVladimirPutin,isportrayedasacowardlydictator,suppressingcivilrightsat
homeanddestabilizingRussia'sneighborsthroughhybridwarfare.IntheinternationaldomaintheKremlinis
supportingtheregimeofBasharal-Assad,whichisseenbytheWestasthecauseofprolongedconflictin
Syria.
InRussia,theUSisseenasaplayertryingallmeanstomaintainitsfadingglobaldominanceandcreating
problemsforrisingpowerslikeRussiaorChinathrough"colorrevolutions"andcreatingchaosintheMiddle
East.MoscowseesWesternsanctionsagainstRussiaorthecreationofnewtradeblocksliketheTrans-
PacificPartnershipasuseofeconomicweapons.Thesystemiclackoftrustbetweentheleadersand
societiesprecludesmeaningfuldialogueontheseissuesanytimesoon.
Akeymarkerfortheimprovedrelationswouldbetheroll-backofWesternsanctionsagainstRussia.Butthe
mostcrucialpartsofthesanctionsregimearelikelytostayinplacein2016.Thecriteriaforremovalof
sanctionsremainformalandaretiedtoMinskII.Moscowishighlyunwillingtoimplementseveralpartsof
theMinskdeal,includingfullwithdrawalofitstroopsfromeasternUkraineandreturnofcontroloverthe
bordertotheKievgovernment.EvenifsomeoftheEUmeasuresareabolished,USsanctionswillstayin
place.
TheprospectsforresolutionofSyrianconflictremaindubious.TheUSandRussiaarehighlyunlikelyto
formarealmilitarypartnershiptoeradicatetheself-proclaimedIslamicState.Moscow'skeygoalremains
supportingthecurrentregimeinDamask,soitcancontinueitsairraidsagainstmilitarygroupswhichare
definedas"moderate"bytheWest.
Evenifthemajorpowersachievesomeformofconsensus,regionalpowerswithcompetinginterestslike
Turkey,SaudiArabiaandIranhavepowerfultoolstounderminetheseefforts.Wideningconflictbetween
MoscowandAnkaraisyetanotherfactorblockingnormalizationoftherelationship.
Lastbutnotleast,thepoliticalcalendarintheUSandRussiasuggestsahighprobabilityofconflict.Allthe
majorcandidatesfortheUSpresidentialelectionsareveryhawkishonRussia,saveforDonaldTrump,so
debatesinpublicspacewillbefulloftoughlanguageandpersonalattacksonPutin.Inthisenvironmentthe
outgoingadministrationishighlyunlikelytodoanythingmeaningfultoimprovetherelationshipevenifit
chosetodoso.
InRussia,2016istheyearoftheStateDumaelections.Ifhistoryisanyguide,anti-Westernrhetoricwillbe
everywhere.WithlowcommoditypricesandprolongedmismanagementoftheeconomytheKremlinhasno
betterchoiceastoblameeconomictroublesonthehostileWest.
Recentexamplesofofficialreactiontooppositionactivists'investigationsintohigh-profilecorruptioncases
showthattheauthoritiesalwaysblametheseinvestigationsasCIA-orchestratedcampaignsagainst"innocent
officials."ManyalsoexpectfurthersuppressionofNGOs,humanrightsactivistsandelectionmonitoring
organizationsasthevotesapproach.
It'sveryhardtoimaginehowRussiaandtheWestcantalkconstructivelyunderthesecircumstances.
ThisarticleoriginallyappearedinGlobalTimes.
SentfrommyiPad
Senttime: 12/24/201508:13:12AM
FW:DavidSATTER,"WhoismurderingRussianjournalists?WhenitcomestoRussianpolitics,DonaldTRUMPisausefulidiot,"
Subject:
http://www.nationalreview.com/node/428916/print
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Thursday,December24,20158:13AM
To:'howard@jamestown.org'
Cc:'paul.goble@gmail.com''waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:DavidSATTER,"WhoismurderingRussianjournalists?WhenitcomestoRussianpolitics,DonaldTRUMPisausefulidiot,"
http://www.nationalreview.com/node/428916/print
And:FOMpoll2015wastheworstyearforRussianssince1998:http://tvrain.ru/news/fom400701/
And:LEVADACENTERpollshowsthatRussianshavetakenastronginterestinNavalnyisfilmonthecorruptionofProcurator
GeneralCHAIKAandhisfamilyhttp://echo.msk.ru/blog/corruption/1682176echo/
And:InterviewofVenediktovwithAndreiILLARIONOVRoskomnadzor[Russianstatecommitteeoverseeingthemassmedia]
hastakenaninterestinIllarionovsBLOGandmaytakestepstosuppressit:http://echo.msk.ru/programs/razvorot/1373948
echo/
And:PatriarchKirillstopspokesman,ArchpriestVsevolodCHAPLIN,isremovedfromhispost:
http://www.newsru.com/religy/24dec2015/chaplin_print.html
Senttime: 12/22/201503:46:15PM
Subject: FW:Russia'sTrumpMoment:SiamesecatasMayorofBarnaul,
From:paulroderickgregory[mailto:pgregory@stanford.edu]
Sent:Tuesday,December22,201511:23AM
To:paulroderickgregorypgregory@unitedcoal
Subject:Russia'sTrumpMoment:SiamesecatasMayorofBarnaul,
IsRussianearingaTrumpMoment:Throwoutthepoliticalclass
http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2015/12/22/adonaldtrumpmomentisdevelopinginvladimir
putinsrussia/
Forbes Welcome
www.forbes.com
Forbes Welcome page Forbes is a global media company, focusing on business, investing, technology,
entrepreneurship, leadership, and lifestyle.
From: DonaldJensen<donald.jensen8@gmail.com>
Senttime: 12/23/201511:14:00AM
Subject: Fwd:2015-#249-Johnson'sRussiaList
AsIrecallwehaveneverdiscussedKofman.(No3)
SentfrommyiPhone
Beginforwardedmessage:
From:DavidJohnson<davidjohnson@starpower.net>
Date:December23,2015at12:19:39PMEST
To:donald.jensen8@gmail.com
Subject:2015-#249-Johnson'sRussiaList
Reply-To:davidjohnson@starpower.net
Havingtroubleviewingthisemail?Clickhere
Johnson'sRussiaList
2015#249
23December2015
davidjohnson@starpower.net
AprojectsponsoredthroughtheInstituteforEuropean,Russian,andEurasianStudies(IERES)atThe
GeorgeWashingtonUniversity'sElliottSchoolofInternationalAffairs*
www.ieres.org
JRLhomepage:www.russialist.org
ConstantContactJRLarchive:
http://archive.constantcontact.com/fs053/1102820649387/archive/1102911694293.html
JRLonFacebook:www.facebook.com/russialist
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SupportJRL:http://russialist.org/funding.php
Yoursourcefornewsandanalysissince1996
*SupportforJRLisprovidedinpartbyagrantfromCarnegieCorporationofNewYorkandtheOpenSociety
FoundationstotheGeorgeWashingtonUniversityandbyvoluntarycontributionsfromreaders.Thecontents
donotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsofIERESortheGeorgeWashingtonUniversity.
"Wedon'tseethingsastheyare,butasweare"
"Don'tbelieveeverythingyouthink"
Youseewhatyouexpecttosee
DJ:Somelightholidayreading.MerryChristmas!
Inthisissue
TODAY
1.AP:WINTERHEATWAVE,OFASORT,ENVELOPSUSUALLYFRIGIDMOSCOW.
.RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines:FyodorLukyanov,Theworldin2015:Anostalgiafor
balance.Theyear2015hasdemonstratedasevereimbalanceintheworldorderandthe
impossibilityofreturningtointeractiongovernedbyoldprinciples.Asglobalplayersstrive
forareturntotheirindividualperceptionofa"goldenage,"FyodorLukyanovconsiders
whichgeopoliticalmodelappearsthemostlikelyinthenearfuture.
3.http://warontherocks.com:MichaelKofman,TheSevenDeadlySinsofRussiaAnalysis.
4.TheUnzReview:IsraelShamir,PutinBlues.
5.Kremlin.ru:FirstRussianInternetEconomyForum.
6.www.rt.com:'14yearsofoccupationbyworld'srichestnation,Afghanistanremains
desperate'
7.TheNationalInterest:MichaelPeck,America'sColdWarMasterPlantoNukeRussia.
Nowforthefirsttime,weknowwhichRussiancitieswouldhavebeendestroyed,andwhy.
8.RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines/RossiyskayaGazeta:Fromliteraryjamtolivereadings:
RecappingtheYearofLiterature.
9.Reuters:Ukrainehealthsystemindangerofcollapseasreformsstall.
#1
AP
December22,2015
WINTERHEATWAVE,OFASORT,ENVELOPSUSUALLYFRIGIDMOSCOW
ByJIMHEINTZ
MOSCOW(AP)-It'susuallythecoldthat'sbitterinMoscowinDecember,butthisyearit's
thehumorthatbitesduringanunusualwarmspell.
Astemperaturesclimbedashighas7degreesCelsius(45degreesFahrenheit)inthe
Russiancapitalinrecentdays,ajokebegancirculatingontheInternet:Thiswasnature's
compensationforRussiansbeingunabletotakevacationsinEgyptandTurkeythisyear-
twotopdestinationsforRussianwinterholidays.
RussiabannedallitsairlinesfromflyingtoEgyptafteroneofitsairlinerswasbombedthere
inOctober,killingall224peopleonboard,andRussianchartertripstoTurkeywere
suspendedfollowingtheNov.24shootingdownofaRussianwarplane.
TheweatherisblamedoncyclonesintheAtlantic,spreadingwarmthandrainovermostof
westernRussia.
Although7Cisn'taheatwavebymoststandards,it'sanunsettlingchangeforacitywhere
temperaturesaverageminus6C(21F)inDecember-andithasbrokenrecordssetin
1936.
Worseyet,itjustseemssoun-Russian.
SomuchsothatatopRussianpoliticianfounditnecessarytopromisethatarealwinteris
ontheway.
"Therenecessarilywillbesnow,Iassureyou.Therewillbesnowonthe30th,"Sergei
Naryshkin,speakerofthelowerhouseoftheRussianparliament,declaredMonday.
"PeoplearetellingmethisisaEuropeanwinter,that'sgood,that'showit'ssupposedtobe.
AndItellthem'No,thisisnotaRussianwinter,'"complainedMariaArbuzova,aretiree
shoppingTuesdayataholidaymarketnearMoscow'sRedSquare.
Moscowisacitythatchoosestoembracewinterratherthanendureit.
Goodskitrailscanbereachedonthesubway,askijumpplungesdownahillattheedgeof
thecitycenterandoutdoorskatingrinksdotthecity.GorkyParkfloodsmanyofits
sidewalkstocreateamazeofskatingpathsandtheVDNKhcomplex,anextravaganzaof
SovietGothicbuildingsandfountains,hoststheworld'slargestrefrigeratedoutdoorrink,a
massive20,000squaremeters(aboutfiveacres).
Thoserinks,andothersinthecity,havebeenclosedsofarthisyear.A100-meter(320-
foot)iceslideerectedneartheKremlinisalsooutofbusiness,itsicelesswoodenstructure
asadreminderofthefunthat'sbeingmissed.
"Theweatherisnotmakingmeveryhappy,"saidamandressedasDedMoroz,the
RussiananalogueofSantaClaus,whogavehisnameonlyasAnton.
ButreliefmaycomebythetimeDedMorozmakeshisgift-givingroundsonNewYear's
Eve.
ForecastersexpecttemperaturesinMoscowtoreturntoaseasonablebelow-freezinglevel
onSaturdayorSunday.
[returntoContents]
#2
RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines
www.rbth.ru
December23,2015
Theworldin2015:Anostalgiaforbalance
Theyear2015hasdemonstratedasevereimbalanceintheworldorderandthe
ByFyodorLukyanov
TheauthoristheeditorinchiefoftheRussiainGlobalPoliticsmagazineandheadof
researchattheValdaiInternationalDiscussionClub.
Theyear2015isthefirstinwhichno-oneiscontestingtheobviousanymore:thattheworld
systemisinasevereimbalance,onewhichkeepsgeneratingnewcrises.Manyrealized
thisalongtimeago,butwerereluctanttoadmitit,i.e.togiveupthecozyperceptiondating
backtothelate20thcenturythateverythingisgoingwellandinevitablerelapsescanbe
successfullycontained.
Forexample,Russia'sactionstoincorporateCrimeaandsupporttheanti-Maidan
movementsineasternUkrainewereviewedasonesuchrelapse.Theleadingpowers(in
termsoftheirimpactontheworldorder,i.e.theWest)tried-throughconsolidatedpolitical,
economicandpsychologicalpressure-tomaketheKremlinchangeitsbehaviorandreturn
"totherightsideofhistory."Inotherwords,theyproceededfromthepremisethatthenotion
of"asitshouldbe"exists.
ThepressureonRussiafailedtoproducethedesiredeffect,andthencamethefinal
turningpoint.InthecasewithSyria,no-oneknowsanymorewhatthis"asitshouldbe"is.
TheMiddleEastof2015hascometorepresentdespair:Themoreeffortismade,themore
obviousitisthat,first,sucheffortisineffective,andsecond,thatitisimpossibleinprinciple
torallytheparticipantsinthismulti-layeredconflictaroundasinglegoal.
ISIS:seekingtoresetthegame
Thetrendoftheyearisthehopelessdesiretoreturnto"thegoldenage,"witheachplayer
havingtheirownideaofthis.Themoststrikingexampleis,ofcourse,themain
troublemakeroftheMiddleEastregion,whichisnowcustomarilyreferredtoasDaesh
(knownintheWestasIslamicState,orISIS).Here,everythingisstraightforward:backto
thecaliphate,wheneverythingwasfairandsquaredownwiththeachievementsoftheso-
called"civilization"thatcolonizersforcedonthetruebelievers.
ThecertainpopularitythatradicalIslamistsfromwhatwasoncecalledMesopotamiaenjoy
intheWest,theinterestintheirideasandactionsisasignthatevenoutsideofthe
proposed"caliphate"peoplefeelanemptinessinsideandincreasinglylongforsomething
differentfromwhattheyhavenow.
Havingsaidthat,itisnotonlytheself-proclaimedcaliph,AbuBakral-Baghdadi,theleader
ofISIS,whohankersafteragoldenpast.Thosewhobelongtomainstreamglobalpolitics
lookbackintothepastforinspirationtoo-albeitanot-so-distantpast.
Ayearningforamorestableera
Thememorabledatesoftheyear2015areareminderofhistoricaleventslinkedtothe
establishmentofaparticularworldorder:the200thanniversaryoftheCongressofVienna,
the70thanniversaryoftheendofWorldWarIIandtheestablishmentoftheUN,the40th
anniversaryoftheHelsinkiFinalAct,the25thanniversaryoftheCharterofParisforaNew
Europe.
Uptotheendofthe20thcentury,thenotionofaworldorderwasalwaysaboutbalance.A
complexbalance,involvingnumerousplayers,aswasthecaseinthe19thcentury.Ora
relativelysimplebalance,asafterWorldWarII,whenthereemergedasystemofequal
dominanceoftwosuperpowers.Abalanceinevitablyenvisagedamutualrecognitionof
spheresofinfluenceinoneformoranother.ThatwasthefoundationfortheViennamodel,
theYaltasystem,theHelsinkiFinalAct.
Atfirstglance,itmayseemthatthe1990ParisCharter,whichdeclaredanendtospheres
ofinfluenceanddivisionlines,isbasedonadifferentprinciple.However,inpractice,ittoo
requiredabalance,notforconfrontationbutforrapprochement.Ineffect,thisiswhat
MikhailGorbachevdreamtof:Asfarashewasconcerned,theendoftheColdWarshould
havebeenbasedonaconvergence,anequalandmutualcomingtogetherofpreviously
competingblocs.Thebreak-upoftheSovietUnionshutthedooronthatoption:Russia
wasnotperceivedasasecondcenterinEurope.
Irrespectiveofwhatisbeingdeclaredofficially,anidealforRussiawouldbeareturnto
someformofagreedspheresofinfluence.HencethenostalgiaforViennaandYalta.The
idealfortheWestisthesituationofthe1990s,whenthespheresarenomoreandthe
influencehasbecomeuniversal.HencetheconstantreferencestoHelsinki(omitting,
however,tomentionthatcomponentoftheHelsinkiAccordsthatestablishedtheverysame
spheresofinterest)andParis,whichenvisagesacommonality.
Aproliferationofglobalactors
Neitherofthesenostalgia-inducingmodelscanbebroughtback.Whatmakestoday's
politicsdifferentfromtheeraof"worldorders"ishowuncommonlydemocraticitis.There
aretoomanyofthosewhoareinfluencingtheprocessesnow.
Nowthelistconsistsofnotjustthemajorpowers,asbefore,butalsoofnumerousmid-
rangecountriesseekingtomakeitintotheinternationalpremierleague,interstate
organizationswiththeirbureaucraticinertia,hugecorporations(withcommunications
giantsbeinginaleagueoftheirown),non-stateactors,likenon-governmental
organizations(ISIS,ineffectisoneofthem)andevensomeindividualswhopossess
intellectualpoweroverotherpeople.
Insidestatestoo,decision-makingismademorecomplicatedbythefactthatgovernments
areunabletofullycontrolwhatishappeningontheirterritory:Itisimpossibletofence
oneselfofffromthenumerousinfluencesofaglobalworld.
Clearlydefinedspheresofinterestareoutofthequestion.Thosewhousedtobelongto
theminthepastarenolongerpreparedtoacceptthistypeofrelations,whilethosewho
usedtocontrolthemdonothaveenoughleversofpowertoforceanyone.
Theoutgoingyearhasshownthatthedominanttrendisnottheuniversalityofapyramid-
likeworld,asitseemedinthe1990s,butthefragmentationoftheworldintomore
manageablesegments.Theyoperateaccordingtotheirownratherthanuniversalrules.
TheTrans-PacificPartnershipsetupinOctoberthisyearisaprototypeofthistypeofa
"bloc."AnothercomponentshouldbetheTransatlanticTradeandInvestmentPartnership,
whichU.S.PresidentBarackObamahopestoreachanagreementonbeforetheendofhis
presidentialterm.
Abalanceoftwooceans
Theyear2015hasnotonlybecomeaRubiconmarkingthestartofsomethingnew,ithas
alsoshownthatitisimpossibletobringbackthepast.TheauthorsoftheValdaiClub
annualreport,whichthisyeariscalled"WarandPeaceinthe21stCentury,"areconvinced
that"theriseinchaosandunmanageabilityininternationalrelationscannotlastforever...
mostlikely,wearewitnessingtheemergenceofanewstructureoftheworld,basedon
whatiseffectivelyabalance,albeitloose,oftwolargegroupsofstates."
"Now,aneworderwillnotberebornonthepost-warruinsofthepreviousorderbutwill
gradually'germinate'fromadialecticchaosofrivalryandinterdependence,"readsthe
report.Thisishappeningorganically,irrespectiveofthewillofthemainplayers,whoare
stillcaptivatedbythepast.
Aflexiblebalanceof"thetwooceans"withAmericainthecenterontheoneside,andthe
continentalmassofEurasiawithaclosepartnershipbetweenChinaandRussiaonthe
other,isatfirstglancesomewhatdisconcerting.Itlookstoomuchlikeyetanotherversion
oftheclassicgeopoliticsoftheMahanandMackindervarietyorlikethegrimpredictionsof
GeorgeOrwellwithhisEurasiaandOceania.
Infact,thesearetwocommunitiesthatareunitedbycommoninterestsfromwithinbutare
interdependentandnotconfrontationaltoeachother,atleastnotalways.Thisisthebest
optionthatonecanimaginetoday.Yetanotherversionofan"endofhistory"-inflected
"eternalpeace,"predictably,hasturnedouttobeautopia.
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#3
http://warontherocks.com
December23,2015
TheSevenDeadlySinsofRussiaAnalysis
ByMichaelKofman
MichaelKofmanisanAnalystattheCNACorporationandaFellowattheWilsonCenter's
KennanInstitute.PreviouslyheservedasProgramManageratNationalDefenseUniversity.
Theviewsexpressedherearehisown.
Astheclockcountsdowntotheendofanothertumultuousanddifficultyearofdealingwith
Russia,thenaturalinstinctistolookbackonthebattlesandsurprisesof2015withaneye
tomakingpredictionsforthecomingyear.Thereismaterialaplenty:thebattleof
Debaltseve,Moscow'soperationsinSyria,acrisiswithTurkeythatstillburnsbright.Anew
yearoffersnewopportunitiesforprognostication:WherewillRussiastrikenext?Whatis
Putinthinking?Whatarethelikelyflashpointsof2016?Insteadofthistraditionalexercise,
Russiaexpertsshouldreflectonayearofdiscussions,briefings,roundtables,merciless
PowerPointdecksabouthybridwar,andoccasionalspatsinthevirtualpagesofoutletslike
WarontheRocks.Whatarethenaggingquestions,questionableassumptions,and
unknownsthatbesettheanalyticalandpolicymakingcommunity?
ExpertsandpolicymakerswhodealwithRussiaarelivinginahigh-tempoenvironment,
keepingpacewithmilitaryinterventions,crises,andthefrequenttwistsinbilateralrelations.
However,inanysuchendeavor,itispossibletolearnlessonsthatarenottrue.Thisismy
ownattemptatpresentingalistofquestionablebitsofanalysisandassumptionsthatexist
withinthecommunity.Indoingso,Ihopetopushpeopletocriticallyexaminehowtheylook
atRussia.Whydowesaysomeofthesethings,andmoreimportantlywhydowethink
them?
1.TheRussianGovernmentisBrittle.Orisit?
PresentingVladimirPutin'sregimeasbrittleisoftenanalyticalshorthandforarguingthathis
regimeisdangerousinthenearterm,butequallylikelytoimplodeinshortorder,with
Russiadescendingintoturmoilandinstability.Indeed,Moscowhasaccumulatedsomany
domesticandforeignpolicyproblemsthatitwouldmakethisalogicalassessmentwereit
notforthepoortrackrecordofsuchpredictions.Witheachnewoutbreakinwhathas
becomeanalmostroutineseriesofpolitical,economic,orforeignpolicycrises,asegment
oftheRussia-watchercommunityinvariablybeginstomakepredictionsofPutin'simminent
demise.Unfortunately,thescienceofpredictingregimechangeseemstolagsignificantly
behindastrology.WeshouldrememberthatfewpredictedtheSovietUnion'srapiddemise,
thestartoftheArabSpring,oranticipatedtherapidfallofVictorYanukovichinUkraine
followingthestartoftheMaidan.
Therearetwoongoingcasestudiesonthemeritofsuchpredictions.ThefirstisPakistan,
acountrythatbythesametheoryshouldhavecollapsedlongagoundertheweightofits
manyproblems.ThesecondisNorthKorea,whichsoldiersondespitedecadesof
predictionsandestimatesoftheregime'simminentimplosion.AsformerSecretaryof
DefenseRobertGatesremarkedonourabilitytopredictthenatureandlocationofthenext
conflict,"ourrecordhasbeenperfect"giventhat"we'veneveroncegottenitright."The
sameshouldbesaidofourabilitytojudgeregimebrittleness.Thepointisnotthatneo-
Kremlinologyorassessmentsofpoliticalstabilityareawasteoftime,butthatthisisa
singlelayerofanalysisthatshouldbetakenwithahealthydoseofskepticism.
UndoubtedlythosewhoregularlypredictPutin'sdownfallwillonedaybevindicated,butfor
planningandanalyticalpurposes,ourexpectationsshouldbetempered.Thenexttestof
politicalbrittlenesscomesin2018whenwewillseehowreadyandwillingtheRussian
publicistoacceptPutin'sautomaticre-election.Nobodyknowswhatthestateofthe
economy,currencyvaluation,foreignexchangereserves,oilprices,orinternationalposition
ofRussiawillbethatyear.
2.TheUnitedStateshasaPutinProblem,notaRussiaProblem.OrDoesit?
Theindividualsinpowermatter,andanotherRussianleadermaynothavechosentoannex
CrimeaorinvadeUkraineinresponsetotheMaidan'svictory.Thatbeingsaid,thelingering
debateonwhethertheUnitedStateshasaPutinproblemoraRussiaproblemisan
unsettledone.IfoneassumesthattherealproblemisPutin'sregime,howeverlongitmight
last,thenthenaturalcourseofactionistoavoidanybargainswithRussia,cauterizethe
damagetothebilateralrelationshipandwaitforanotherleader.Mypersonalviewisthat
whoeversucceedsVladimirPutinwillnotprovetobeallthatdifferent,andwilllikelyfollowa
similarpolicypath.
RussianhistorysuggeststhatPutinisanythingbutanaberrationinleadership,pursuing
securitydilemmasinthesamemannerofmanypreviousoccupantsoftheKremlin.Seeing
Russia'ssecurityspaceasazero-sumgameandsecuringitbylimitingthesovereigntyof
itsneighborsisalmostcanonforRussianforeignpolicy(asitwasforSovietpolicy).We
shouldaskifPutin'sforeignpolicyisfundamentallysodifferentfromthatofBorisYeltsin,
Russia'sfirstdemocraticleader,orifRussiawassimplytooweakduringYeltsin'sruleto
challengethepost-ColdWarsecurityarrangementsinEurope.Inearly2014,Henry
KissingerwarnedWashingtonnottofixateonPutinwhenhewrotethat"FortheWest,the
demonizationofVladimirPutinisnotapolicy,itisanalibifortheabsenceofone."
YeltsintoobelievedintheapplicationofforcetoachievedesiredpoliticalendsinRussiaand
onitsperiphery.ExamplesarefoundamongRussianinterventionsinTransnistriaand
Tajikistanin1992andAbkhaziain1993,theuseoftankstosuppressaconstitutionalcrisis
inMoscow,theFirstChechenWarin1994-96,andtheRussianparatrooperdeploymentto
seizePristinaInternationalAirportin1999aheadofNATO'sdeploymentinKosovo.In
retrospect,thatadministrationwasnotshortonmilitarygambits,complaintsaboutNATO
expansion,orgripeswithU.S.militaryinterventions.ThecharacterofYeltsin'sgovernment
wasquitedifferentfromPutin'sregime,butarguablyitwasunderhisleadershipinthe
1990sthatRussiabeganandendeditsbriefflirtationwithdemocracy.Intruth,wehave
Yeltsin'spresidencytothankforPutin.
Putin'sviewoftheworldmayhaveevolvedduringhisrule,butthereislittleevidencethat
weshouldexpecthissuccessortotraveladifferentpath.Thusfar,thereisnothingto
suggestthatthenextRussianleader,whenfacedwithasimilarinternationalandregional
environmentwillnotattempttoengagetheWest,leavedisappointedandreverttothe
ruthlesspursuitofRussiannationalinterest.Anotherquestionseldomraisediswhether
U.S.policytowardsRussiawouldtrulychangeifitstroublesomeleaderweretodisappear
tomorrow.
3.MoscowCannotKeepThisUp.OrCanit?
CurrentdiscourseonRussia'seconomicfrailtyfoldsintothebroaderdiscussionon
whetherornotMoscowcansustainthecurrentstateofconfrontation.Inotherwords,how
longcanMoscowkeepthisup?TheunderlyingquestioniswhetherRussiawillceasebeing
aprobleminthenear-tomid-termbysuccumbingtoitseconomicwoes.Thenarrativethat
RussiawillrunoutofmoneyisprevalentintheWest,eventhoughMoscow'sforeign
reserveshavebothstabilizedandshownamodestreboundinrecentmonths.Thebigger
questioniswhydowetalkaboutRussiaasthoughitwasabankoracompany?Did
Russiagooutofbusinessafterthe1998default?
WhatistheactualconnectionbetweenWesternsecurityconsiderationsvis-a-visRussia,
itsforeignandnationalsecuritypolicy,andtheamountofmoneyithasonhand?Putin
announcedambitiousmilitaryreformsin2009,whenthepriceofoilfellto$35perbarrel.
RussiainvadedUkraineandannexedCrimeain2014eventhoughtheRussianeconomy
wasclearlyenteringarecessioninlate2013.Lookingfurtherback,Russianspersevered
throughthefinancialdefaultandcurrencycrisisof1998,manygoingthebetterpartofa
yearwithoutsalaries.PutinwasanointedasYeltsin'ssuccessorfollowingthiseconomic
carnage,andintheaftermathlaunchedtheSecondChechenWarin1999,aprolonged
conventionalandcounterinsurgencycampaign.
Thisdiscussionbegsamoreessentialquestionastowhetherornottheeconomyhasever
beenafoundationofRussianpowerintheinternationalsystem.Inapreviousarticlefor
WarontheRocks,IarguedthatRussiahasoftenappearedtobethesickmanofEurope,
technologicallybackwards,withalacklustereconomy,andapoliticalsystemthat
consistentlylagsbehindtheneedsofitssociety.Thatbeingsaid,despiteWesternfearsto
thecontrary,theSovietUnionwasneverasuperpowerbyvirtueofbeingaserious
economiccompetitortotheUnitedStates,letalonetheWest,atbestattaining57percent
ofAmerica'sGNPinthelate1960sbeforefallingbehind.
Today,plentyofseniorU.S.officialsconsiderRussiatobeastrategicthreatandaserious
opponenttoNATOeventhoughitsGDPisbarelyatenthofAmerica's.Inarecentinterview
discussingRussia,DeputyDefenseSecretaryRobertWorkappliedMearsheimer's
definitionofagreatpowertoMoscow,highlightingthereturnofgreatpowerpoliticsinthe
internationalsystem.Granted,hesaidthiswasanarrowlens,butiftheUnitedStates
considersRussiatobeagreatpower(orregionalpowerwithabignucleararsenal)when
itseconomyrepresentsamere3.3percentofglobalGDP,thentheconnectionbetween
economicfundamentalsofpowerandRussia'spositionintheinternationalsystemmerits
furtherdiscussion.
4.RussiaCannotSustainMilitaryOperations.OrCanit?
FollowingcloselythediscussionofeconomicweaknessisageneralsentimentthatRussia
isunabletosustainmilitaryoperationsduetofinancialorforceconstraints.Goingbackto
early2015,thenotionthatRussia'sarmedforcesaretieddownor"stuck"inUkraine
seemstohavedissipated.Themeritofsuchestimateswascastintodoubtwhen,in
Septemberofthisyear,RussiawassimultaneouslysustainingitsdeploymentinUkraine,
conductingtheexpensivestrategicexerciseCenter2015,anddeployinganexpeditionary
operationtoSyria.Itoowaswronginarguingthatlogisticalandfinancialconstraintswould
limitMoscow'sinvolvementinSyriagivenitslackofassetstosustainexpeditionary
operations.
Muchtomyownsurprise,RussiasurgedsealiftbyreflaggingTurkishcommercialshipsto
supportitsincreasingtrooppresenceandbaseexpansions.ForMoscow,necessityisthe
motherofinvention,whereasfortheUnitedStatesitisusuallythemotherofprocurement.
Russiaalsofoundplentyoffundingtotestexpensivelandattackcruisemissilesofalmost
everyvariety.Inarecentpressconference,Putinshowednosignsthateconomic
constraintswouldimpactmilitaryoperations.Instead,itseemsRussiacansustainthisand
allotherlinesofeffortforatleastafewyears.At4.2percentofGDP,or3.3trillionrubles,
Russia'sdefensebudgetisthehighestithasbeensincethecollapseoftheSovietUnion.
Toooftenwetradeinouranalyticalexpertiseforanaccountant'sglasses,asthoughwe
couldcounttheRussianMinistryofDefense'smoneyoritsavailabletroopsbetterthanit
can.Ontheissueofsustainmentofmilitaryoperationsweneedadoseofanalytical
humility.
5.RussiaisStillaPowerinDecline.Orisit?
IfundamentallybelievethatRussiaisapowerinstructuraldecline,butincreasinglyI
wonderabouttherelevanceofthatassessment.Itseemswitheachyearwecaninferless
andlessfromsuchastatement.CelesteWallanderandEugeneRumer,twolongtime
RussiaexpertswhomIholdinthehighestregard,oncewrote:
"Despiteseveralyearsofeconomicgrowthandanewdynamicleader,Russiaremainsa
powerindecline.Neitheritsrecenteconomicsuccessnoritsvigorousleadershipis
sufficienttomakeupforthelong-termlossesthecountryhassufferedortocompensate
forthecontemporaryshortcomingsthatbeliekeyelementsofRussianpower."
TheonlyproblemwiththisremarkablepieceinTheWashingtonQuarterlyisthatitwas
publishedinlate2003.Roughlyadecadelater,PresidentObamasimilarlyopinedthat
Russiaisa"regionalpower"actingoutof"weakness."ManyofRussia'sunderlying
weaknesseswereastruethenastheyarenow,butifRussiaisdeclining,itisdoingsovery
slowly,anditsleadershipdoesnotacceptsuchapredestinedfate.Asimprobableasitmay
be,absentasuddenRussiancollapse,atsomepointwemaybeforcedtoadmitthat
Russiaisdecliningsoslowlythecountrymightjustbemuddlingthrough.
6.DemographyWillDetermineRussia'sFate.OrWillit?
Russia'sdemographicproblemsarecommonlyreferencedasoneofthedriversofits
supposedlyassuredstructuraldecline.Analystsoftenmentiondemographytoeitherblithely
supportthenotionthatRussiawillsimplyceasetobeaproblemfortheWestinthelong
term,orworriedlyspeculatethatthecountrywillbecomedangerouslyunstable.Butwhat
mightRussia'sdemographicstrulydetermine?WillRussiasomehowbelessofastrategic
threatoraconcernfortheUnitedStatesifithasasmallerpopulation?Itisalmostcertain
thatRussiawillhaveenoughmanpowertomaintain1,550strategicnuclearweapons,
alongwithaconventionalforcetoovermatchanyofitsneighbors,saveChina.Perhaps
counterintuitively,intheshortterm,Russia'sarmedforceshavesteadilyincreasedinsize
fromroughly667,000-700,000in2012to900,000today.
Whenconsideringlong-termalternativefuturesitisworthnotingthatRussia'seconomy
andnationalbudgetisinexorablydependentonenergyandresourceextraction.Theseare
industriesthatarenotlabor-intensive.Atthesametime,Russiaisthebeneficiaryofalarge
laborinfluxfromformerSovietRepublics,oftenmakingitthethird-orsecond-highest
recipientofmigrantsintheworld.CanRussianationalizesuchlaboratthecostofinternal
socialcohesion?Howmuchwillitsgovernmentbudgettrulysufferfollowingalaborforce
contraction?Isitevenfairtoassumethatwarfareorsimilarstatetaskswillremain
manpower-intensive30yearsfromnow?AreRussia'sdemographicproblems
fundamentallydifferentfromthoseofotherdevelopedstates,includingmanyU.S.allies?It
strikesmethatRussia'sdemographicdeclineismoreofanopen-endedquestionthana
definitivestatementonthefutureofthecountry.
7.ForPutin,It'sAllAboutRegimeSurvival.Orisit?
Moscow'sannexationofCrimea,invasionofUkraine,andlaunchofoperationsinSyriaare
sometimesexplainedasthethroesofafallingpoliticalsystemengagedina"survival
project."Theunderlyingtheoryunifyingtheseactionsisregimesurvival,brilliantly
advocatedbyLiliaShevtsovainanumberofarticlesandop-eds.Theproblemwiththis
approachisthatregimesurvivalcircularlyexplainseverythingandabsolutelynothingatthe
sametime:Thereisnopoliticalregimeonearththatisnotinterestedinitssurvival.Regime
survivalisaconstantmotivationformany,ifnotall,politicalsystemsandpoliticians.Itisso
fungibleananalyticalapproachthatitlendsitselfusefultoexplaininganyandallpolicy
choicesbyPutin.
Atitscore,thisargumentarbitrarilytakesthedomesticpoliticaloutcomesofMoscow's
actions,suchashighapprovalratingsathome,oraresurgentsenseofnationalism,and
movesthembackintimetobecometheprimaryobjectivesofforeignandnationalsecurity
policy.Thatcouldbetrue,butitseemsimpossibletoproveordisprove.Regimesurvival
maynotbeanincorrectexplanationofMoscow'smotives,butitiscertainlyincompleteas
ananalysisoftherealsourcesofRussiandecision-making.
RussiaAnalysisinPerspective
InmyownnarrowlaneofRussianmilitaryanalysis,thereisalwaysroomforamore
balanced,informed,andnuancedunderstandingofRussia.Perhapsthegreatestwoeof
discussionsonRussianmilitary,strategy,anddecision-making(otherthandebateson
hybridwarfare)istheconstantseesawbetweentwoextremes.Toooften,weareengaged
inanasininedebateastowhetherRussia'smilitaryisfivefeettallor12feettall.
Assessmentstendtotrackmorecloselywithwhereonesitsinthepolicymakingornational
securityestablishment,versuswheretheRussianmilitaryactuallyis,andwhatitcando.
HereIbelievethestartingpointshouldalwaysbeBismarck'sobservationthat"Russiais
neverasstrongasshelooksnorasweakasshelooks."Whenitcomestodecision-
makinganalysis,Putinisregularlycastinstarktermsaseitherabrilliantstrategist,
outfoxingtheWestateveryturn,orcompletelyincompetentwithoutanynotionofwhathe
willdonext.
PerchancethebroadestandmostvexingquestionforU.S.decision-makersandexperts
todayisthis:HowdowedeterRussia?Itisasvagueasitisrecurrent.Theshortansweris
thattheUnitedStatesdoesdeterRussia,whichiswhywe'reallstillhere70yearsafter
nuclearweaponswerefirstused.Amoreanalyticallyinteresting-andpoliticallyvaluable-
questionwouldbehowtheUnitedStatesshouldmanagegreat-powercompetitioninthe
internationalsystemandkeepconfrontationwithRussiafromescalatingintowar.Ifcrises
areinevitableamongthemajorplayers,anditseemstheyare,thenmanagingescalation
dynamicsisparamount.Whenfacedwithaproblem,bureaucracieshaveapredilectionfor
pursuingactivityandconfusingitforachievement,toparaphraseFareedZakaria.Tobetter
structureapolicyorastrategytowardsRussiaweshouldconfrontourownunderlying
assumptionsandthemeritsofprevailingnarratives,andmorerigorouslyseektofillexisting
gapsinanalysis.
[returntoContents]
#4
TheUnzReview
www.unz.com
December23,2015
PutinBlues
ByIsraelShamir
HeavydarknessbefallstheNorththesunrarelyemergesfrombetweentheclouds.This
year,Russiahasnoticeablylessstreetillumination,andthespiritsareanythingbutfestive.
OnlythewhitenessofthesnowandChristmastreesbreakthegloomandremindusofthe
forthcominglowpointofthecosmicwheel,Yuletide,whendaysstartstowaxandnightsto
wane.AsthisstellareventforetellstheNativityofourSavior,thisisaperiodofhopeaftera
verydifficultyear,allovertheworld.
Putinsupportersareunhappy
TheRussianskeepguessingwhatPresidentPutinwilltelltheminhistraditionaltelevised
addresstothenationatthebreakoftheNewYear.Heshouldsay,thisyearisover,andwe
shallallcheer,peoplepropose.Eventhemostoptimisticonesaredisappointedby
lacklustreeconomicperformance,andtheyblamethegovernmentofPrimeMinister
Medvedevandhisliberalmonetaristteam.MeanwhilePutinrisesabovetheblamegame,
butthegovernmentislessandlesspopular.
-AstheRoubledrops,eventheratherpro-Kremlinmass-circulationnewspaperKP(full
disclosure:IwriteanoccasionalcolumnfortheKP)publishedacallfortheeconomyand
financeministerstoresignortobefired.ThereisaverylittlechancethatMrPutinwilltake
thisadviceandcleanhisgovernmentstables.
-Hecouldbeefuphiscreditbydumpingsome(orall)ofhisministers,butPutinisstubborn
andunusuallyloyaltohiscolleagues.Noaccusationhaseverconvincedhimtodismissa
manofhisteam.HisformerdefenceministerMrSerdyukovhasallegedlybeeninvolvedin
someshadydealing,whileSerdyukov'sparamourandassistantamassedmillionsby
sellingprimeMODassetstohercronies.Still,Putindidnotdumphim,andsavedhimfrom
jail.(HehadtoresigntobecomeaCEO,whilesheservedafewweeksinprison,atmost).
-Lastweek,theoppositionleaderMrNavalnyairedsomeheavychargesagainstAttorney
GeneralChayka.Forhisdefence,Chaykasaidthatthemanbehindthecampaignisthe
notoriousMrBrowder.BrowderisanAmericancrookwhomanagedtoappropriatemany
high-qualityRussianassetsforpenniesduringYeltsin'sprivatisation.Eventuallyhewas
forcedtopartwithhislootandhehasbeensentencedtomanyyearsofjailinabsentia.
Browderisslime,nodoubt,butitisaweakdefenceforChayka.Still,Putinrefusedtodrop
Chaykaoreventoinitiateanindependentinvestigationofhisallegedcrimes.
-PutinstandsbythemosthatedpoliticianofYeltsin'sera,MrAnatolyChubays.The
FinancialTimescalledhimFathertotheOligarchs.Afterleavingthegovernment,Chubays
hasbeenappointedtoleadtheRUSNANO,astate-ownedcorporationnotoriousforits
embezzlementandwaste.Putinsavedhimmanytimesoverfromprosecution.
-Putinwent,hatinhand,toYekaterinburgforthegrandopeningofBorisYeltsin'sMemorial
Centre(pricetag-ninebillionroubles)andreferredkindlytotheloathedlatePresidentwho
appointedhimhissuccessor.Peoplewerefuriousseeingtheirpresidentenjoyinghimself
amongthecarpetbaggersofYeltsin'sregime.
-CanyouimagineFoxTVtransmittingRussianpropaganda?InRussia,amajorchunkof
Russianmedia,state-ownedorsubsidisedbythetaxpayer,transmitspro-Westernand
anti-Russianagenda,allegedtheeminentfilmdirectorNikitaMichalkov,astaunch
supporterofPutin,inhisvideoseenbyovertwomillionviewersinafewdays.Hecalled
uponPutintoasserthislineandbanishtheenemieswithin,butstateTVrefusedto
broadcastthevideo.
-Putin'srecentpress-conferenceprovidedachanceformorecriticism.Besidethepoints
mentionedabove,thejournalistsaskedwhystateenterpriseCEOsarepaidmillionsof
dollarsayear,whileeverybodyelseiscalledupontotightenthebelt.Theyaskedwhythe
RussianCentralBankkeepsbuyingUSbondsandsupportstheUSDollarattheexpense
oftheRouble.Theyaskedwhyimportsubstitutiondoesnotworketc.
Theseareprotestsfromthepro-Putincrowd,frompeoplewhosupportedhistakeoverof
CrimeaandhisentryintoSyrianwar.Theycouldbearsomedeprivation,buttheyareupset
byPutin'scondoningthieves,byhisapparentcronyism,byhisoligarchfriends.Untilnow,
thecriticsavoidedattackingPutin,butthesearetheearlyswallows.DrStepanSulakshin,
theheadofaMoscowthinktank,publiclyaccusedPutinofknowinglyleadingRussiainto
furtherdegradation.
ThisbubblingdissatisfactionofPutin'ssupportersmayyetturnmoredangerousforthe
presidentthanthe2011Frondeofhishipsterenemies.Meanwhile,head-strongMrPutin
doesnotwishtoyieldground,sacrificesomeofmorehatedministersandCEOs,orattune
internalpoliciestopublicexpectations.Perhapsheisright,andthingsarenotwhatthey
appear,butjusticemustbeseen,notonlydone.
TalkingTurkeywithIsrael
TheTurkishfrictioncausedbyErdogan'sdecisiontoshootdowntheRussianbomberis
anothersourceofPutin'sblues.HehadspentalotofeffortnurturingrelationswithTurkey.
Allthiseffortwentdownthedrain.Therearemultimillionprojects,fromagaspipelineto
tourism.Allthatwascutdownatonce.Putin'splanstodelivergastoEuropebypassingthe
hostileUkrainecollapsed.ThisisahugesetbackfortheRussianpresident.
Therhetoricbetweentheleadersbecameacrimonious.HotheadsinRussiaspeakof
seizingtheBosporusandDardanelles,ofturningIstanbulintoConstantinopleandplanting
thecrossontheancientStSophiachurch.TheTurkishpresidentthreatenedtooccupy
Russiawithinoneweek-withhelpofNATO.
Turkey'schoiceisaresultofitsover-involvementinSyria.Withsomuchinvestment,
ErdoganwasloathtoseeSyriagone.WhilehisdecisiontodowntheRussianjetwas
ratherextreme,therelationsalreadyweretense.
Putin'striptoErevanandhiscondemnationof"TurkishgenocideoftheArmeniansin1915"
wasanunnecessaryprovocation.Nootherworldleaderdidit,butFrancoisHollandeof
FrancewhoflewinfortwohoursandproceededtoBaku,thecapitalofAzeriTurksthus
levellingtheplayingfield.IactuallycalleduponPutintoavoidthisstep,butthestrong
Armenianlobbyinsistedonthistrip.
Afterwards,therewasasupposedleak(inreality:afake)ofaharshandinsulting
conversationbetweenPutinandtheTurkishambassador.IcheckedwiththeAmbassador
andothersides.Itwasafake,butthisfakehasbeenspreadinmillionsofsitesandposts.
However,the$64,000questionisaboutSyria:willitbecomeavassalstatetothe
reconstitutedOttomansorwillitremainasovereignstatewithstrongtiestoRussia.
RussiathoughtithasastrongerhandasaninviteeoftheSyrianlegitimategovernment
TurkeydeniedBashar'slegitimacy.
TheriftbetweenTurkeyandRussiabecameafact.ItsmainbeneficiariesweretheUS-
andIsrael.Forthelastfiveyears,therelationsbetweenIsraelandTurkeywerehostile,
sinceIsraelicommandosmassacredninepeaceactivistsonboardtheTurkishvesselNavi
Marmara.InfaceoftheRussianthreat,theTurksagreedtomakepeacewithIsrael.
Israelisinvolvedintheconflictmorethanitadmits.TheRussianshaspublishedtheir
evidenceofDaeshoilbeingsmuggledtoTurkeybyTurkishcompanies.Thiscausedalotof
indignationinRussiaandelsewhere.Howdotheydaretobuystolenoilandfinancethe
terrorists!
TheRussiansforgottomentionthatthesmuggledoilgoestoIsrael.Israelisthemain
buyerofoilproducedbytheKurdsandbyDaesh.Thiswasreportedandcorroboratedby
theFTandbyAlArabyalJadeed.TheRussianmediaavoidedthetopic,asPutincherishes
hisgoodrelationswithNetanyahu.
Lastweek,IsraelisattackedsuburbsofDamascusandkilledsomeRussianallies,
Hezbollahfighters.Again,Russianstookitquietly.Noneofindignationcausedbydowning
ofthebomberseepedintotheRussianmedia.
Israelsupportsal-Nusra,declaredaterroristorganisationbytheUN.Thisisnotasecret:
recentlytheDailyMailpublishedareportglorifyingIsraelisoldierssavinglivesofthe
Islamistfighters.ThousandsofwoundedguerrillasreceivedmedicalassistanceinIsraeli
hospitalsandwentbacktofightBashar.
IsraelhasagoodworkingrelationswithDaesh,too.IwastoldthatDaeshtroopsentered
thePalestiniancampalYarmukbeingequippedwithlonglistsofPalestinianactivists.They
wereassembledandpubliclyexecuted.ThePalestiniansthinkthatDaeshreceivedthe
namesfromIsraelisecretserviceandactedupontheirrequest.Moreover,Daeshnever
everattackedaZionisttarget.
Putin-andRussianmediadidnotsayawordonthat.PerhapsPutinisrightRussiadoes
notneedsuchastrongenemyasIsrael,sinceIsraelileaderscansay"Jump,UncleSam,"
andUncleSamwillask"Howhigh?"However,theycouldtonedowntheirindignation
regardingTurkishoilsmuggling,TurkishhelptotheguerrillasandotherTurkishmisdeeds.
Israelisobjectivelyanenemy:itisanenemyofRussia'salliesHezbollahandIranitwants
dismembermentofSyriainordertokeepGolanHeightsforgooditprefersaSomalised
Syriatoahealthyandstrongone.ButNetanyahuplayshishandcautiouslydespitehis
feelingofinvulnerability.
TheIsraeliattackontheDamascussuburbstookplacedespitetheRussianC-400
operatinginSyria.ExpertssaytheC-400hasbeenplacedinLatakiaanditcan'teffectively
protecttheskiesabovetheSyriancapital,whiletheC-300purchasedbytheSyriansand
locatedinDamascushasbeenhitbyIsraelis.Meanwhile,theIsraeliAirForceistrainingat
avoidingandcopingwithaC-300inCyprus,asthatcountryhasaC-300ofitsown,
recentlyboughtfromtheRussians.
PutinhasnothingtogainfromconfrontationwithIsraelIsraelpreferstohaveitsway
withoutfightingtheRussians.Perhaps,soonerorlater,theIsraeliandRussianAirForces
willjoustbutmeanwhilebothsidesprefertopostponethatmoment.
PutinhopesErdoganwillgiveuponSyria.Thisisnotaneasytask,butnotanimpossible
one,either.Forthat,PutinmustworkwithPresidentObama-orwiththenextAmerican
President.
PutinvsWesternLeaders
ItisoftensaidthatPresidentObamaisaweakleader.Idonotthinkso.Heisawilyand
sophisticatedplayer.HevoidseveryagreementhiscountrymadewithRussia.Therewere,
andareagreementsgalore:fromMinsktotherecentUNSCresolutions.Atfirst(and
second)sight,theagreementsfollowtheRussianline.Otherwise,theRussianswouldnot
signthem.However,afterawhileObamaoffersadifferentinterpretation.Iwouldnotliketo
argueagainsthiminacourtoflaw.Heisastrickyasanylawyer.
Didhegiveuponthe"Assadmustgo"mantra?Itisnotclear.He,andhisSecretaryof
StateJohnKerrysometimessaythathemaystay,butquicklycontradictthemselvesand
insistonhisdeparture.Theyintroducenewandpeculiarideasdaily.Forexample,theysay
"OnlySunnismaydealwiththeSyriancrisis".ThisstrangeideainspiredtheSaudisand
theyevenclaimedtheyorganisedahugecoalitionofSunnistatestofightDaesh.Needless
tosay,withinafewdaysthis"coalition"vanishedlikedewundersunrays.
However,atthebottomline,ObamaplaysbyaColdWarscriptagainstRussia.Likea
drunkardaccusesothersofheavydrinking,heaccusedMittRomneyof"ColdWar
thinking",andwarnedPutinofhis"ColdWarthinking",butasadiscipleofZbigniew
Brzezinskihehardlycanthinkofanythingelse.EvenPentagongeneralscomplainedabout
thismatrixofhismind,saysSeymourHersh.
ThereisnothingPutinwantslessthananewroundoftheColdWar.HeisnotanewSoviet
leader.PeoplewhodreamofanewStalinarebarkingupawrongtree.Onemayregretit,
andmanyRussiansdoregretit,butPutinhasnogreatplansofsocialrearrangement.His
ambitionismoremodest:hewantsRussiatobeindependent,prosperous,great,and
equaltoothergreatnationslikeitwasin19thcentury.
LastweekIwasattheStPetersburgCulturalForum,agatheringofartists,curators,and
artministersfrom40countries,anditwasclearthatPutin'sRussiaismuchmore
interestedinitspre-revolutionarypastandinthe19thcenturyingeneral,thanin20thor
21stcenturyart.TheyperformedalostplaybyPuccini,theyreconstructedPetipaballets,
theyreadTolstoy.Theyrebuiltpalaces,theyfixedoldtheatres,eventhepre-revolutionary
circushadbeenreturnedtoitsoldgloryinclusiveofitsoldwell-forgottennameandthe
royalcircle.SomanyrestaurantsbearnamesremindingeveryoneoftheTsartimes.
ThereisawindofnostalgiainRussia,anditisforRussiaofLeoTolstoyandTchaikovsky.
PutinhasorderedthattheremainsoftheWhitegenerals,philosophers,artistsbebrought
backforburialontheRussiansoil.SovietandCommunistmemoriesaresuppressed.
Recently,PrimeMinisterMedvedevcalledforanotherboutofcommemorationsforStalin's
victims.Iamnotsurethatthisisawisepolicyperhapsitwouldbebettertoletpasttotake
careofitself.Buthereweare:Putinandhiscrowdareold-styleliberals,notsocial
reformers.Theydonotwanttoraisethebannerofrevolt.Theywanttofitintotheworldasit
is,butasequals.
Theproblemis,therearepeoplewhoarehell-bentonhegemonyandfull-spectrum
dominance,andtheyarenotlikelytoallowRussiatogoitsownway.Theywanttoimpose
theirrules,andsetinplacetheirdocilerulers.That'swhytheverymodestintentionsof
PutinmeetsomuchresistanceinNATOandthePentagon,intheWhiteHouseandin
Westminster.What'sworse,thesepeoplealreadycontrolthemainstreampoliticsofmany
countries,fromtheUStoJapan,toFranceandSweden.Itdoesnotmatterwhichofthe
mainstreampoliticianswinelections,theresultisthesame.
Putin's(andRussia's)hopelaysinpoliticiansoutsidethecontrolledmainstream.Donald
Trumpisagoodexample.PutinisnotparticularlyinterestedinUSinternalpoliticsandinMr
Trump'sunusualproposals.ThisisaninternalmatteroftheUS,andPutinsteersclearofit,
likehewantstheUStosteerclearofRussia'sinternalmatters.Forhim,whatisimportant,
isthatTrump'sAmericawouldnottrytodominatetheworldandimposeitsagenda.The
moralquestionwhetherTrump'sideasaboutMuslimsorLatinosareloftyorbaseisa
questionfortheAmericanpeopletodecide.Putinandmanyotherforeignleaderswant
America'snon-interferenceintheirinternalaffairs.
TherudeMr.Trumpseemstobethecandidateleastlikelytopushthebuttonfornuclear
suicideofmankind.MuchlesslikelythanniceMrsClintonwhocouldnukeRussiabecause
Russiansdonotcelebrategaymarriages.Remember,hernicehusbandbombedBelgrade
becausethenastySerbsdidnotallowforthesecessionofCroats(orwasitAlbanians?)
Trump-oranystraightforwarddecentpoliticianwhodoesnottakeordersfromtheMasters
ofDiscourse-wouldbeabletoplayballwithMrPutin,byclassicalrulesofinternational
law.TrumpandPutincouldreturntheconceptofsovereigntytoitsprivilegedposition.This
wouldendmanywars.ThewarinSyriabeganwhenMrObamaandMrHollandesaid
"Assadmustgo".Bytheclassicalrules,nostatemayinterfereintheaffairsofanother
sovereignstate.FromtheRussianpointofview,thewarinSyriaisfirstofallawarfor
sovereigntyandagainstglobalImperialvassaldom.
TheRussianswanttolighttheirChristmastreesandwishMerryChristmasandgowith
theirwomenandchildrentoaChristianchurchwithoutbeingscoldedbytheObamasand
ClintonsofthisworldforinsufficientpoliticalcorrectnessandfailuretomentionKwanzaa.
That'swhyitisimportantforallofusifwemayhopetoreachpeace,thisChristmasorthe
nextone.
[returntoContents]
#5
Kremlin.ru
December22,2015
FirstRussianInternetEconomyForum
VladimirPutinattendedtheFirstRussianInternetEconomyForum.
TheFirstRussianInternetEconomyForumistakingplaceinMoscowonDecember21-22.
Theplenarysession,attendedbyrepresentativesofthenationalITindustryandrelevant
ministriesandagencies,isdedicatedtoinitiativesforthelong-termdevelopment
programmeoftheRussianInternetsegmentandbranchesoftheeconomyusinginternet
technologies.
Priortotheplenarysession,thePresidentattendedanexhibitionofinnovativeprojects,
wherewasshown,inparticular,developmentsinbanktechnologies,cyber-protectionfor
industrialfacilitiesandthosedirectedatenhancingtheaccessibilityofpublicservicesfor
thepublic.
VladimirPutinalsohadaconversationwithForumparticipants.
PresidentofRussiaVladimirPutin:Goodafternoon,friends.
Togetherwithyourboard,wehavejusthadadetaileddiscussionoftheissuesyou
consideredyesterdayregardingspecificbranchesoftheeconomy.Ifounditinteresting.I
hopewehavemanagedtoagreeoncertainmatters.IcanseemyaideIgorShchegolev
here,theformerMinisterandnowmyPresidentialAide.Weagreedthatifourcolleagues
decidetodoso,thenwewillbehappytohandovertheresponsibilityforeverythingyou
agreedonandproposedasnecessaryforjointeffortstopromoteyourinitiativestooneof
yourcolleagues,whomIinvitedtoworkatthePresidentialExecutiveOfficewithMr
Shchegolev.ThiswillallowustopromoteyourideaswithinthePresidentialExecutive
Officeaswell,andalsowithintheexecutivebodiesintheGovernmentandtheregionsof
theRussianFederation,whichisnolessimportant.
Generally,inthepastyearstheInternethascertainlybecomepartofourdailylives.
Moreover,ithasbecomeaseparateindustrypracticallyallovertheworld,andyouspoke
aboutthisyesterday.Russiaiskeepingabreastofthings,ofcourse.Imaybesayingvery
generalthingsnotintendedforthisaudience,maybeforthosewhoarestandingtherewith
thecameras,sothatpeopleinthiscountrywillfindoutmoreaboutthis:Russiahasthe
largestnumberofInternetusers-inexcessof80millionpeople,with62millionofthem
goingonlineonadailybasis.Asoneoftheboardmemberssaid,peoplelookattheir
phonesabout300timesadaytoseewhatisgoingonintheworld,orineverydaylife,
thingsthatinterestpeoplewhousetheInternet.
ThenumberofcommercialInternetusersisalsogrowingrapidly.TheInternetmarket
accountsfor16percentoftheGDP.Remoteaccesstechnologiesareextensivelyusedto
providepublicandmunicipalservices,whichIamveryhappytosay,becausejustrecently
wewereonlybeginninghere.Generally,therehasbeengoodprogress.Intheprevious
year,morethanathirdofallpublicandmunicipalservicesbecameavailableonline.
ThesignificanceandinfluenceoftheInternetareconstantlygrowing.Weneedtousethe
Internetasadriverofmodernisationfortheentirecountry(thisisanundisputedfactand
nobodyhasanydoubtaboutit,andwearereadytohelpandsupportyouinyour
endeavours)toraisethequalityoflife,tocreateanewtechnologicalbasisforthenational
economyand,ofcourse,forthesocialspheres-educationandhealthcare.
TheInternetInitiativesDevelopmentFundhasbecomeoneoftheinstrumentsavailablefor
resolvingthesetasks.Wesetituptwoyearsagoanditseemstobedoingwell.Italready
has6billionrublesatitsdisposal.Overthe2.5yearsofitswork,theFundhasaddedover
170projectstoitsportfoliodesignedtoresolvespecificissuesfacingbothindividualsand
businesses.
Wedefinitelyneedtodevelopastrategyforthelong-termdevelopmentoftheRussian
Internet,takingintoconsiderationtheoveralldevelopmenttendenciesoftheworldwide
web.Ifullyagreewithyouthat,bearinginmindtheoveralltendenciesandwithgreat
respectforourpartnersandcompetition,wemustcreatecommonlivingandworking
conditionsforallonthismarket.Nobody,primarilyournationalparticipants,shouldbeputin
asituationthatwouldmakeyoulesscompetitive.Ifullyagreewiththosewhoreferredtothe
decisionswearemakingintherealeconomy,inindustryandagriculture,saying:wedo
offercertainbenefitstoRussianmarketplayers,tonationalproducers,sowhynotdothe
samehere.Iagree:wearereadytoconsiderthisanddosomething,provided,ofcourse,
thatitdoesnotviolateourWTOcommitments.Iamcertainwecanfindappropriate
solutions.
Iwouldliketowishyousuccess.Thankyouverymuch.
[returntoContents]
#6
www.rt.com
December22,2015
'14yearsofoccupationbyworld'srichestnation,Afghanistanremainsdesperate'
Outsideforcescannotdictatewhatacountry'sgoverningsystemisgoingtolooklike,but
that'swhat'shappeninginAfghanistan,saysMedeaBenjamin,cofounderofleft-wingNGO
CodePinktoldRT.
TwoattackstookplaceinAfghanistanonMonday.Threerocketshitthediplomaticareain
Kabulsomewayfromthecenterofthecity.Thathappenedafteramotorbikesuicide
bombercarriedoutanattackontheBagramairbasekillingsixUStroops.
Meanwhile,theTalibanisaggressivelypushingbackintoHelmandprovince.Themilitants
aresaidtobeclosetooverrunningthekeycityofSangin.
USSecretaryofStateJohnKerryhasdescribeddevelopmentsinAfghanistanaspositive.
However,AmericanpoliticalactivistMedeaBenjamindoesn'tagreecallingitaridiculous
statement.
"TheUShasspentprobablyatrilliondollarsinAfghanistananditremainsoneofthe
poorestcountriesintheworldoneoftheworstplacesforwomentohavechildrenoneof
theworstratesofilliteracyamongwomen,"shetoldRT.
TheUSinvadedAfghanistanin2001afterthe9/11attackscarriedoutonUSsoil,and
accordingtoBenjamin,"itiscertainlynotacountrythatafter14yearsofbeingoccupiedby
therichestcountryintheworldhasmuchtospeakforitintermsofdevelopment."
IslamicState(IS,formerlyISIS/ISIL)isnowfightingtheTalibanwhichcouldmakethings
evenworsefortheAfghanpeople.
ActivistarguesthatitisterriblethatafteralloftheseyearsandthebillionsofdollarstheUS
hasputintotraininglocalAfghanforcestheyarestillnotabletocontroltheirowncountry.
"Ithinkitisareflectionofthefactthatoutsideforcescomingincannotdictatewhata
country'sgoverningsystemisgoingtolooklike,"saidBenjamin.
Shesuggeststherehasalwaysbeenaneedforapoliticalsolutiontotheproblemsin
AfghanistanandtheUSshouldputitsmoneyintodevelopingthecountryinsteadofthe
military.
Speculatingonpossiblesolutions,theactivistsaidtherehavebeenconstantattemptsat
talkwiththeTaliban.However,shebelievesthattheyneedtogetseriousaboutthat.
"JohnKerryshouldputsomeofhisdiplomaticenergiesintofindingapoliticalsolutionthatis
goingtounfortunatelyhavetoincludetheTalibanaspartofatransition.TheTalibanare
localpeopleandtheycan'tbewishedaway,"BenjamintoldRT.
"ButIthinktheremaining10,000UStroopsarenotgoingtobeenoughtodictatetothe
Afghangovernmentwhatitspolicyshouldbe,"shecontinued.
Benjaminsaidthatithastobeapoliticalsolutionandallenergyandresourcesshouldbe
putintothatgoal.
'ObamaadministrationwantstopushSEALabusesinAfghanistanundertherug'
Meanwhile,aNewYorkTimesreporthasaccusedtheUSNavyofcoveringuptheabuseof
AfghandetaineeswhichtookplaceinMay2012.
TheNavalCriminalInvestigativeServicelaunchedaninvestigationintoacasewhere
tortureresultedinthedeathofamandetainedbyUSNavySEALS.Despiteeyewitness
accountsagainsttheUSservicemen,thenavyprobedismissedthecharges,claimingthe
evidencedidn'tsupporttheallegedmisconduct.
CriminaldefenseattorneyandformerCIAofficerJackRicespeakingaboutdetaineeabuse
saidthatinacaselikethisthereshouldnothavebeenaminimalinvestigation.
"Thisshouldhavebeenafull-blowncriminalinvestigation,whichisfarmoreseriousonthe
militaryside,"hetoldRT.
Headdedthatiftheywantedtotakethistotheextreme,theycouldhavebeenchargedin
FederalCourt,whichisaciviliancourtintheUS.
"Baseduponthefactthattherewasadeathinthiscaseitshouldhavenotbeen
investigatedasitwas,"Ricesaid.
Ricearguesthattheinvestigationcouldbereopened"basedupontheseriousnessofthe
caseandthefactthatessentiallyitwasdismissed."
"Itisdisturbingthattheyseemtomakeadecisiontotreatthisasinconsequentiallyasthey
havereallybaseduponthedeathofoneofthedetainees,"hecontinued.
TheSEAL'scommandersaidtheevidenceprovidedinthereportwasinconsistent.
Ricesaiditwaspossiblethereareinconsistenciesinthereport."Butthatinitselfitdoesn't
meanthatyoushouldn'tgoforwardwithaninvestigation,"headded.
AccordingtoRice,heregularlyencountersreportsthathaveinconsistencieswithinthem.
"Thatdoesn'tstoptheinvestigation,thatdoesn'tstoptheprosecutionjustbecausesome
thingsdon'tcompletelyaddupdoesnotmeanyoushouldnotcontinuetodigitdoesn't
meanthatyoushouldnotpotentiallyevenchargesomebodywithseriouscriminal
offenses,"headded.
TheformerCIAofficerconsiderstheUSgovernmentistryingtoburytheinvestigationitself.
"Thefactthatwhattheydidwasdivertthistoaminimalinvestigationandtothekindof
investigationandprocessforinconsequentialevents,ratherthansomethingfarmore
seriousreallytellsmethattheyaresortoftryingtopushitaway,totrytoputitunderthe
rug."
In2009PresidentObamasaidhedidn'tthink2000picturesoftortureshouldbereleased
becausethiswouldendangerUStroopsabroad.RicearguesthatPresidentObama
decidedhewasnotgoingtoreleasetheAbuGhraibphotos.
"Whenhewasrunningforofficehepromisedhewantedtransparencyandhewantedthe
Americanpeopleandtheworldtoseethephotosthemselves,"hetoldRT.
Inconclusionhesaidthat"thelikelihoodofsuccessinreopeningthisisnotverycertainat
thispoint."
"Myexpectationisitwillnotbereopened,"Ricepredicted.
[returntoContents]
#7
TheNationalInterest
December23,2015
America'sColdWarMasterPlantoNukeRussia
ByMichaelPeck
MichaelPeck,afrequentcontributortotheNationalInterest,isadefenseandhistorical
writerbasedinOregon.HisworkhasappearedinForeignPolicy,WarIsBoringandmany
otherfinepublications.
IftheColdWarhadturnedthermonuclear,weknowthattheUnitedStatesandSovietUnion
wouldhavebeendevastated.
Butnowforthefirsttime,weknowwhichRussiancitieswouldhavebeendestroyed,and
why.TheU.S.governmenthasfinallydeclassifiedthe1950sStrategicAirCommandtarget
list,whichwouldhavedispatchedAmericanbombersandmissilesonnuclearstrikes
acrosstheCommunistworld.
"SAClistedover1200citiesintheSovietbloc,fromEastGermanytoChina,alsowith
prioritiesestablished,"accordingtotheNationalSecurityArchive,thenon-governmental
organizationwhichrequestedthedeclassifiedinformation."MoscowandLeningradwere
priorityoneandtworespectively.Moscowincluded179DesignatedGroundZeros(DGZs)
whileLeningradhad145,including'population'targets."
[http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/nukevault/ebb538-Cold-War-Nuclear-Target-List-Declassified-
First-Ever/]
Butatleastintheory,thiswouldnothavebeenwantondestructionorterrorbombing.There
wassupposedtobemethodbehindthenuclearmadness.SAC'sprioritywastodestroy
SovietairpowerbeforeSovietbombers-thiswasbeforeICBMsweredevelopedinthe
1960s-couldstrikeAmericanandWesternEuropeantargets.Some1,100airfieldswere
targetedandprioritized,withtheSovietTu-16BadgerbomberbasesinBykhovandOrsha
inByelorussiaatthetopofthelist.OnceSovietairwarcapabilityhadbeendestroyed,and
assumingbothsideswereinanystatetocontinuethewar,thenSovietindustrywouldhave
beenbombednext.
Andsowouldalotofinnocents.TheSACtargetlist,compiledin1956andpublishedas
partofa1959nuclearweaponsplanningstudy,deliberatelyincludedcivilianpopulations.
TheSACplanspecified"the'systematicdestruction'ofSovietblocurban-industrialtargets
thatspecificallyandexplicitlytargeted'population'inallcities,includingBeijing,Moscow,
Leningrad,EastBerlin,andWarsaw,"notedNationalSecurityArchiveresearchers.
"Purposefullytargetingcivilianpopulationsassuchdirectlyconflictedwiththeinternational
normsoftheday,whichprohibitedattacksonpeopleperse(asopposedtomilitary
installationswithciviliansnearby)."
Mostofthe800pagesofdocumentsconsistoflistsoftargetsandtheirassociated
alphanumerictargetnumbers.SACplannersassumedin1959theycouldstrikewith2,130
B-52andB-47bombers,RB-47reconnaissanceaircraft,andF-101fighterescorts.In
addition,therewouldbe376nuclear-tippedcruiseandbomber-launchedmissiles,aswell
asearlyintermediate-rangemissiles.The1959studyalsostatesthatmissiles-thiswas
beforeICBMsweredevelopedinthe1960s-hadsuchalowchanceofdestroyingtheir
targetsthatmannedbomberswouldbetheprimaryweapons.
BecauseSACwassofixedonquicklyknockingoutSovietairpower,H-bombswouldhave
beendroppedtoexplodeonthegroundratherthaninmid-air.Whileairburstswouldhave
producedmoreheatandradiation,thefocusonwasachievingmaximumblastdamageto
destroySovietaircraftandbases,despitesomeunintendedsideeffects."Whilethe
objectionstosurfaceburstandtheprobabilityofradioactivefalloutaffectingfriendlyforces
andpeoplehavebeenconsidered,therequirementtowintheAirPowerBattleis
paramounttoallotherconsiderations,"saidtheSACstudy.
However,SACdefinedtheSovietairpowerinfrastructurequitebroadly,toincludeany
commandandindustrialcentersthatcouldsupportaRussianaircampaign.ThusMoscow
waslistedashavingnumerousmilitarycommandcenters,aircraftandmissilefactories,
atomicweaponslaboratoriesandoilrefineries.
DespitebeingaNuclearAgeforce,SAC'sstrategymoreresembledtheU.S.bomber
offensiveagainstGermanyandJapaninWorldWarIIthantwenty-firstcenturywarfare.
ConcentratingontheSovietairforceanditsinfrastructurewouldhavebeenfamiliargoals
toB-17andB-29commanders(whichwereindeedthepeoplewhoranSACinthe1950s,
includingCurtisLemay).Thoughitalsoseemsaquaintlylong-warstrategy,asifthe
Sovietswerereallygoingtocapableofmass-producingbombersandnuclearweapons
aftertheinitialnuclearexchange.Thebeliefthatmissilesweretoounreliable,andonly
mannedbomberscouldbetrusted,soundsmuchlikethedronevs.mannedaircraftdebate
today.
DidSAC'stargetingstrategymakesense?Thebetterquestionis,whocares?Fortunately
forthehumanrace,weneverhadachancetofindout.
[returntoContents]
#8
RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines/RossiyskayaGazeta
www.rbth.ru
December23,2015
Fromliteraryjamtolivereadings:RecappingtheYearofLiterature
TheYearofLiteratureofferedmuchtoenjoyforwriters,bloggersandsweetloversalike.
RBTHhascollectedallthemostinterestingfactsandfiguresfromthisliterary
extravaganza.
ANASTASIASKORONDAEVA,ROSSIYSKAYAGAZETA
TheceremonyofpassingthebatonfromtheYearofLiteraturetotheYearofCinemawas
heldinSt.PetersburgonDec.14.Alltheattentiononliteraturethisyearhasthrownup
someinterestingstatistics.
1)Thewinnerofanarratingcompetitionheldduringthefestivalbookmarkettookhome55
poundsoffruitandvegetables.Duringthefirstweekendoffall,shelvesfilledwithbooks
wereinterspersedwiththeusualonesholdingproduceatMoscow'sDanilovskyfoodcourt
andmarket.Surprisedshopperswereabletotakehomegoodliteraturealongwiththeir
normalpurchases.
2)Continuingtheculinarytheme,120litersof"literaryjam"wascookedaroundRussia.
ThestaffofRossiyskayaGazetafoundoldrecipesandmadejamoutdoorsinwriters'
estatesfortheentiresummer.TheymadetheplumdessertfromAnnaKareninain
Tolstoy'sYasnayaPolyanaestateinTulaRegionandusedlocalapplesfromSergei
Yesenin'snativevillageofKonstantinovoinRyazanRegiontomakeajamcelebratinghis
birthday.Readmore>>>
3)InDecember,1300peopletook60hourstoreadLeoTolstoy'sWarandPeaceinalive
broadcast.ThreemonthsbeforeNatashaRostovaandAndreiBolkonskytookthestage,
anotherlivereadingproject,ChekhovAlivebyGoogle,sawthegreatplaywright's
charactersbroadcastovertheinternetfor24hoursstraight.
4)FromJune25-28,RedSquarehosteditsfirsteverbookfair,atwhichmorethan500,000
booksfrom300publishinghousesacross50regionsofRussiawerepresented.FromSt.
Basil'sCathedraltotheStateHistoricalMuseumthesquarehosteddiscussions,alibrary,a
writer'sofficeandevenachildren'splayground.Morethan200,000peopleattendedthe
writers'seminars,concertsandtheatricalperformancesthatformedpartoftheyear's
biggestliteraryevent.Readmore>>>
5)Literaturealsocaughtthepublicimaginationawayfromthebig-namefestivals,markets
andawards.SergeiNifashev,astreetcleanerandbloggerfromBlagoveshchensk,
collectedmorethan100rareeditionsinhisbasement,findingallofthemamongthecity's
trash!Whenhewentthroughthebookshefoundoldmoneyandphotos.Ararefindindeed,
andnotonewerecommendtryingtorepeat-therecouldbeallkindsofnastybugslurking
amongthetrash.
AnabridgedversionofthearticlefirstpublishedinRussianbyRossiyskayaGazeta:
http://www.rg.ru/2015/12/14/goda.html
[returntoContents]
#9
Reuters
December23,2015
Ukrainehealthsystemindangerofcollapseasreformsstall
STAIKY,UKRAINE|BYALESSANDRAPRENTICE
PaintisflakingonthedampwallsandcrackedceilingsofthesmallhospitalintheUkrainian
villageofStaikyandmuchoftheequipmentisover30yearsold.
Runninghotwaterisnotguaranteedandthehospital,servingabout2,800peopleinStaiky
andothervillages,hasnotbeenrefurbishedsinceSoviettimes.
Thereisalsolittlehopeofachangeforthebetteramongmedicalstaffwhorelyon
charitabledonations,oftenfromlocalbusinessmen,tobuyevenbasicmedicinesandthe
petrolneededtovisitpatientsinremoteareas.
AreformdrivelaunchedbytheWestern-leaninggovernmentinstalledafterapro-Moscow
president,ViktorYanukovich,wasoverthrowninapopularuprisinglastyearhasbecome
miredinbureaucraticinertia,argumentsandallegationsofcorruption.
"Idon'tknowwhoiswritingandcarryingoutreformsatthetoporiftheyhaveeverbeentoa
villageandseenhowpeopleliveandwithwhatmedicalservices,"saidfamilydoctorNadiya
MartynenkoinStaiky,aclusterofdilapidatedone-storyhousesontheRiverDnieper,an
hour'sdrivefromthecapitalKiev.
Shesaidstatefundscoveronlytheelectricityandmeagerstaffsalaries,andthatoverthe
pastdecade"they'vecuteverythingtheycouldandevenwhattheyshouldn't...it'svery
precarious."
Staikyisfarfromunique.Soviet-erahospitalsacrossthecountryof42millionare
crumbling,underpaymentofmedicalstaffcontinuestofosterasystemofbribe-takingand
Ukraine'spoorvaccinationratehasplaceditonablacklistalongsidesomeoftheworld's
poorestcountries,includingSouthSudan.
CorruptionhasplaguedUkrainesincethecountrygainedindependencefromtheSoviet
Unionin1991.ButunderYanukovich,itbecamemuchworse.
HealthMinisterAlexanderKvitashvili,oneofseveralforeignersappointedtoministerial
positionsinthehopethattheiroutsiderstatusandinternationalexperiencewouldhelp
Ukrainemakegoodonreformpromises,hopedtorecreatesuccessfulreformscarriedout
inhisnativeGeorgia.
Ayearafterhisappointment,thehealthbilloutliningreformsisstuckinparliament.
"It'sfrustrating.Therearevestedinterests-they'reeverywhere...Workingwiththe
parliamentwedifferonwhatabasicunderstandingofreformis,"KvitashvilitoldReuters.
Withoutacompletereboot,"financiallythesystemwillcollapseinaboutayear,ifnotfaster,
becausethereisnowayUkrainecanincreasespendingtoasustainablelevel,"hesaid.
DEMOCRACYSTRUGGLING
ThestalledhealthbillisoneofmanyexamplesoftheslowprogressUkraineismakingin
reformingitseconomy,promptingWesternbackerstoquestionKiev'scommitmentto
endingcrookedpracticesthatpushedthecountrytothebrinkofbankruptcy.
Squabblesinparliamenthaveheldupotherbills.Someofthesearerequiredforthe
disbursementoffundsundera$40-billioninternationalbailoutprogram,andKiev'sWestern
backerswarnthatitsattempttorebuilditselfontransparent,democraticlinesisunder
threat.
Ukraine'sprogresshasalsobeenhamperedbyaconflictintheeastofthecountrybetween
governmentforcesandpro-Russianseparatistsandadeteriorationinrelationswith
Russia,whichannexedtheCrimearegionin2014.
Thehealthministry'sreformswerefinalisedinAprilandbroughttoparliamentforapproval
inJulybutdiscussionshavedraggedon,Kvitashvilisaid.Ashedidso,heturnedoffhis
cellphone,itsringtonesettothethemetunefromTVseriesGameofThrones,inwhich
rivalclansbattleforinfluence.
Partoftheplanfocusesonseparatingtheprocurementanddeliveryofhealthservices,a
systemwhichuntilnowhasallowedmostcontractstobebrokeredinbackroomdealswith
littleexternaloversight.
AccordingtoareportbytheAnticorruptionActionCenter,aUkrainiancivilsociety
organization,onlysixoutof6,500authorizedpharmaceuticalcompaniestookpartinthe
procurementofHIVdrugsinUkrainein2013,sharingamongthemselvesamarketworth
$30.9million.
Thesalariesofdoctorsaretoolowtoeradicatetheuseofbribesbetweenpatientand
practitioner,whichmeansmanyofthehealthindustry'sfinancialdealingsaredoneinthe
shadows.
"YoucanseeheaddoctorsdrivingPorschesandhavingVertuphones,butthehospitalsare
inanabysmalcondition,"Kvitashvilisaid.
The"informal"partofthehealthcareeconomyamountstoabout$7billionperyear-more
thantriplethesizeofthestate'sannualexpenditureonhealth,heestimated.
FrustrationoverthelackofprogresspromptedKvitashvilitotenderhisresignationinthe
summer,onlytohaveitrejectedbyparliament.
Somecommentatorshavesaidhelackstheknow-howtonavigatethewebofallegiances
thatcontinuestobindUkraine'srulingclassdespiteavowedattemptstomoveonfromthe
politicalcronyismofthepast.
"Ibelievehewantsreforms,buthedoesn'ttotallyunderstandtherealityofUkraine-thatif
someonepromisestheirsupportitdoesn'tmeantheywon'ttryandtripyouup,"doctorand
healthcarecommentatorEvgenyKomarovskysaid
AlexandraUstinova,fromtheAnticorruptionActionCenter,alsosaidtherewasaconflictof
interestsinsomeoftheappointmentsattheministry,suchasbringinginalawyerwho
usedtoworkforapharmaceuticalcompanyownedbyamemberofparliamentfrom
PresidentPetroPoroshenko'sparty.
"CATASTROPHE"
GiovannaBarberis,theUkrainerepresentativeoftheUnitedNationsInternationalChildren's
EmergencyFund(UNICEF),said"theobstacles(toreforms)arehugeandsometimesit
looksprettygrimbecausethepaceisextremelyslow."
ThestartofanimmunizationcampaignfollowinganoutbreakofpolioonSept.1was
delayedbyseveralweeks,promptingEllynOgden,worldwidepoliocoordinatorforthe
UnitedStatesAgencyforInternationalDevelopment(USAID),tocriticizethe"highestlevels
ofgovernment"foraninadequateresponse.
Shesaid"noothercountryintheworldisinsuchadiresituationorshowssuchdisregard
forprotectingchildrenagainstchildhooddiseases."
TheGlobalPolioEradicationInitiative,whichisspearheadedbytheWorldHealth
Organization,said:"Forsometime,Ukrainehasbeenacatastrophewaitingtohappen."
Ukrainedidnotbuydrugs,medicinesorvaccinesformostofthisyearasthehealth
ministrysoughttoapproveatemporaryprocurementsystemviainternationalorganizations
tobypassthecompromisedsystemthatKvitashvilihopestoreform.
ThetemporarysystemwasfinalisedinlateOctober,andUkraineplanstobuyaround$100
millionofvaccinesandmedicines,butsevereshortagesremain.
"Therearenoanti-diphtheriavaccinesinthecountry,"healthcarecommentator
Komarovskysaid.
MeanwhilethemoredrasticreformbillislanguishinginparliamentandKvitashvilisayshis
resignationisstillonthetable.
"Wellmyletterisstillthere.Ididnotwithdrawit.WewillseehowtheParliamentwillact,"
hesaidbyemail.
[returntoContents]
Forwardemail
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Johnson'sRussiaList
2015#249
23December2015
davidjohnson@starpower.net
AprojectsponsoredthroughtheInstituteforEuropean,Russian,andEurasianStudies(IERES)atThe
GeorgeWashingtonUniversity'sElliottSchoolofInternationalAffairs*
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"Wedon'tseethingsastheyare,butasweare"
"Don'tbelieveeverythingyouthink"
Youseewhatyouexpecttosee
DJ:Somelightholidayreading.MerryChristmas!
Inthisissue
TODAY
1.AP:WINTERHEATWAVE,OFASORT,ENVELOPSUSUALLYFRIGIDMOSCOW.
.RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines:FyodorLukyanov,Theworldin2015:Anostalgiafor
balance.Theyear2015hasdemonstratedasevereimbalanceintheworldorderandthe
3.http://warontherocks.com:MichaelKofman,TheSevenDeadlySinsofRussiaAnalysis.
4.TheUnzReview:IsraelShamir,PutinBlues.
5.Kremlin.ru:FirstRussianInternetEconomyForum.
6.www.rt.com:'14yearsofoccupationbyworld'srichestnation,Afghanistanremains
desperate'
7.TheNationalInterest:MichaelPeck,America'sColdWarMasterPlantoNukeRussia.
8.RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines/RossiyskayaGazeta:Fromliteraryjamtolivereadings:
RecappingtheYearofLiterature.
9.Reuters:Ukrainehealthsystemindangerofcollapseasreformsstall.
#1
AP
December22,2015
WINTERHEATWAVE,OFASORT,ENVELOPSUSUALLYFRIGIDMOSCOW
ByJIMHEINTZ
MOSCOW(AP)-It'susuallythecoldthat'sbitterinMoscowinDecember,butthisyearit's
thehumorthatbitesduringanunusualwarmspell.
Astemperaturesclimbedashighas7degreesCelsius(45degreesFahrenheit)inthe
Russiancapitalinrecentdays,ajokebegancirculatingontheInternet:Thiswasnature's
compensationforRussiansbeingunabletotakevacationsinEgyptandTurkeythisyear-
twotopdestinationsforRussianwinterholidays.
RussiabannedallitsairlinesfromflyingtoEgyptafteroneofitsairlinerswasbombedthere
inOctober,killingall224peopleonboard,andRussianchartertripstoTurkeywere
suspendedfollowingtheNov.24shootingdownofaRussianwarplane.
TheweatherisblamedoncyclonesintheAtlantic,spreadingwarmthandrainovermostof
westernRussia.
Although7Cisn'taheatwavebymoststandards,it'sanunsettlingchangeforacitywhere
temperaturesaverageminus6C(21F)inDecember-andithasbrokenrecordssetin
1936.
Worseyet,itjustseemssoun-Russian.
SomuchsothatatopRussianpoliticianfounditnecessarytopromisethatarealwinteris
ontheway.
"Therenecessarilywillbesnow,Iassureyou.Therewillbesnowonthe30th,"Sergei
Naryshkin,speakerofthelowerhouseoftheRussianparliament,declaredMonday.
"PeoplearetellingmethisisaEuropeanwinter,that'sgood,that'showit'ssupposedtobe.
AndItellthem'No,thisisnotaRussianwinter,'"complainedMariaArbuzova,aretiree
shoppingTuesdayataholidaymarketnearMoscow'sRedSquare.
Moscowisacitythatchoosestoembracewinterratherthanendureit.
Goodskitrailscanbereachedonthesubway,askijumpplungesdownahillattheedgeof
thecitycenterandoutdoorskatingrinksdotthecity.GorkyParkfloodsmanyofits
sidewalkstocreateamazeofskatingpathsandtheVDNKhcomplex,anextravaganzaof
SovietGothicbuildingsandfountains,hoststheworld'slargestrefrigeratedoutdoorrink,a
massive20,000squaremeters(aboutfiveacres).
Thoserinks,andothersinthecity,havebeenclosedsofarthisyear.A100-meter(320-
foot)iceslideerectedneartheKremlinisalsooutofbusiness,itsicelesswoodenstructure
asadreminderofthefunthat'sbeingmissed.
"Theweatherisnotmakingmeveryhappy,"saidamandressedasDedMoroz,the
RussiananalogueofSantaClaus,whogavehisnameonlyasAnton.
ButreliefmaycomebythetimeDedMorozmakeshisgift-givingroundsonNewYear's
Eve.
ForecastersexpecttemperaturesinMoscowtoreturntoaseasonablebelow-freezinglevel
onSaturdayorSunday.
[returntoContents]
#2
RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines
www.rbth.ru
December23,2015
Theworldin2015:Anostalgiaforbalance
Theyear2015hasdemonstratedasevereimbalanceintheworldorderandthe
ByFyodorLukyanov
TheauthoristheeditorinchiefoftheRussiainGlobalPoliticsmagazineandheadof
researchattheValdaiInternationalDiscussionClub.
Theyear2015isthefirstinwhichno-oneiscontestingtheobviousanymore:thattheworld
systemisinasevereimbalance,onewhichkeepsgeneratingnewcrises.Manyrealized
thisalongtimeago,butwerereluctanttoadmitit,i.e.togiveupthecozyperceptiondating
backtothelate20thcenturythateverythingisgoingwellandinevitablerelapsescanbe
successfullycontained.
Forexample,Russia'sactionstoincorporateCrimeaandsupporttheanti-Maidan
movementsineasternUkrainewereviewedasonesuchrelapse.Theleadingpowers(in
termsoftheirimpactontheworldorder,i.e.theWest)tried-throughconsolidatedpolitical,
economicandpsychologicalpressure-tomaketheKremlinchangeitsbehaviorandreturn
"totherightsideofhistory."Inotherwords,theyproceededfromthepremisethatthenotion
of"asitshouldbe"exists.
ThepressureonRussiafailedtoproducethedesiredeffect,andthencamethefinal
turningpoint.InthecasewithSyria,no-oneknowsanymorewhatthis"asitshouldbe"is.
TheMiddleEastof2015hascometorepresentdespair:Themoreeffortismade,themore
obviousitisthat,first,sucheffortisineffective,andsecond,thatitisimpossibleinprinciple
torallytheparticipantsinthismulti-layeredconflictaroundasinglegoal.
ISIS:seekingtoresetthegame
Thetrendoftheyearisthehopelessdesiretoreturnto"thegoldenage,"witheachplayer
havingtheirownideaofthis.Themoststrikingexampleis,ofcourse,themain
troublemakeroftheMiddleEastregion,whichisnowcustomarilyreferredtoasDaesh
(knownintheWestasIslamicState,orISIS).Here,everythingisstraightforward:backto
thecaliphate,wheneverythingwasfairandsquaredownwiththeachievementsoftheso-
called"civilization"thatcolonizersforcedonthetruebelievers.
ThecertainpopularitythatradicalIslamistsfromwhatwasoncecalledMesopotamiaenjoy
intheWest,theinterestintheirideasandactionsisasignthatevenoutsideofthe
proposed"caliphate"peoplefeelanemptinessinsideandincreasinglylongforsomething
differentfromwhattheyhavenow.
Havingsaidthat,itisnotonlytheself-proclaimedcaliph,AbuBakral-Baghdadi,theleader
ofISIS,whohankersafteragoldenpast.Thosewhobelongtomainstreamglobalpolitics
lookbackintothepastforinspirationtoo-albeitanot-so-distantpast.
Ayearningforamorestableera
Thememorabledatesoftheyear2015areareminderofhistoricaleventslinkedtothe
establishmentofaparticularworldorder:the200thanniversaryoftheCongressofVienna,
the70thanniversaryoftheendofWorldWarIIandtheestablishmentoftheUN,the40th
anniversaryoftheHelsinkiFinalAct,the25thanniversaryoftheCharterofParisforaNew
Europe.
Uptotheendofthe20thcentury,thenotionofaworldorderwasalwaysaboutbalance.A
complexbalance,involvingnumerousplayers,aswasthecaseinthe19thcentury.Ora
relativelysimplebalance,asafterWorldWarII,whenthereemergedasystemofequal
dominanceoftwosuperpowers.Abalanceinevitablyenvisagedamutualrecognitionof
spheresofinfluenceinoneformoranother.ThatwasthefoundationfortheViennamodel,
theYaltasystem,theHelsinkiFinalAct.
Atfirstglance,itmayseemthatthe1990ParisCharter,whichdeclaredanendtospheres
ofinfluenceanddivisionlines,isbasedonadifferentprinciple.However,inpractice,ittoo
requiredabalance,notforconfrontationbutforrapprochement.Ineffect,thisiswhat
MikhailGorbachevdreamtof:Asfarashewasconcerned,theendoftheColdWarshould
havebeenbasedonaconvergence,anequalandmutualcomingtogetherofpreviously
competingblocs.Thebreak-upoftheSovietUnionshutthedooronthatoption:Russia
wasnotperceivedasasecondcenterinEurope.
Irrespectiveofwhatisbeingdeclaredofficially,anidealforRussiawouldbeareturnto
someformofagreedspheresofinfluence.HencethenostalgiaforViennaandYalta.The
idealfortheWestisthesituationofthe1990s,whenthespheresarenomoreandthe
influencehasbecomeuniversal.HencetheconstantreferencestoHelsinki(omitting,
however,tomentionthatcomponentoftheHelsinkiAccordsthatestablishedtheverysame
spheresofinterest)andParis,whichenvisagesacommonality.
Aproliferationofglobalactors
Neitherofthesenostalgia-inducingmodelscanbebroughtback.Whatmakestoday's
politicsdifferentfromtheeraof"worldorders"ishowuncommonlydemocraticitis.There
aretoomanyofthosewhoareinfluencingtheprocessesnow.
Nowthelistconsistsofnotjustthemajorpowers,asbefore,butalsoofnumerousmid-
rangecountriesseekingtomakeitintotheinternationalpremierleague,interstate
organizationswiththeirbureaucraticinertia,hugecorporations(withcommunications
giantsbeinginaleagueoftheirown),non-stateactors,likenon-governmental
organizations(ISIS,ineffectisoneofthem)andevensomeindividualswhopossess
intellectualpoweroverotherpeople.
Insidestatestoo,decision-makingismademorecomplicatedbythefactthatgovernments
areunabletofullycontrolwhatishappeningontheirterritory:Itisimpossibletofence
oneselfofffromthenumerousinfluencesofaglobalworld.
Clearlydefinedspheresofinterestareoutofthequestion.Thosewhousedtobelongto
theminthepastarenolongerpreparedtoacceptthistypeofrelations,whilethosewho
usedtocontrolthemdonothaveenoughleversofpowertoforceanyone.
Theoutgoingyearhasshownthatthedominanttrendisnottheuniversalityofapyramid-
likeworld,asitseemedinthe1990s,butthefragmentationoftheworldintomore
manageablesegments.Theyoperateaccordingtotheirownratherthanuniversalrules.
TheTrans-PacificPartnershipsetupinOctoberthisyearisaprototypeofthistypeofa
"bloc."AnothercomponentshouldbetheTransatlanticTradeandInvestmentPartnership,
whichU.S.PresidentBarackObamahopestoreachanagreementonbeforetheendofhis
presidentialterm.
Abalanceoftwooceans
Theyear2015hasnotonlybecomeaRubiconmarkingthestartofsomethingnew,ithas
alsoshownthatitisimpossibletobringbackthepast.TheauthorsoftheValdaiClub
annualreport,whichthisyeariscalled"WarandPeaceinthe21stCentury,"areconvinced
that"theriseinchaosandunmanageabilityininternationalrelationscannotlastforever...
mostlikely,wearewitnessingtheemergenceofanewstructureoftheworld,basedon
whatiseffectivelyabalance,albeitloose,oftwolargegroupsofstates."
"Now,aneworderwillnotberebornonthepost-warruinsofthepreviousorderbutwill
gradually'germinate'fromadialecticchaosofrivalryandinterdependence,"readsthe
report.Thisishappeningorganically,irrespectiveofthewillofthemainplayers,whoare
stillcaptivatedbythepast.
Aflexiblebalanceof"thetwooceans"withAmericainthecenterontheoneside,andthe
continentalmassofEurasiawithaclosepartnershipbetweenChinaandRussiaonthe
other,isatfirstglancesomewhatdisconcerting.Itlookstoomuchlikeyetanotherversion
oftheclassicgeopoliticsoftheMahanandMackindervarietyorlikethegrimpredictionsof
GeorgeOrwellwithhisEurasiaandOceania.
Infact,thesearetwocommunitiesthatareunitedbycommoninterestsfromwithinbutare
interdependentandnotconfrontationaltoeachother,atleastnotalways.Thisisthebest
optionthatonecanimaginetoday.Yetanotherversionofan"endofhistory"-inflected
"eternalpeace,"predictably,hasturnedouttobeautopia.
[returntoContents]
#3
http://warontherocks.com
December23,2015
TheSevenDeadlySinsofRussiaAnalysis
ByMichaelKofman
MichaelKofmanisanAnalystattheCNACorporationandaFellowattheWilsonCenter's
KennanInstitute.PreviouslyheservedasProgramManageratNationalDefenseUniversity.
Theviewsexpressedherearehisown.
Astheclockcountsdowntotheendofanothertumultuousanddifficultyearofdealingwith
Russia,thenaturalinstinctistolookbackonthebattlesandsurprisesof2015withaneye
tomakingpredictionsforthecomingyear.Thereismaterialaplenty:thebattleof
Debaltseve,Moscow'soperationsinSyria,acrisiswithTurkeythatstillburnsbright.Anew
yearoffersnewopportunitiesforprognostication:WherewillRussiastrikenext?Whatis
Putinthinking?Whatarethelikelyflashpointsof2016?Insteadofthistraditionalexercise,
Russiaexpertsshouldreflectonayearofdiscussions,briefings,roundtables,merciless
PowerPointdecksabouthybridwar,andoccasionalspatsinthevirtualpagesofoutletslike
WarontheRocks.Whatarethenaggingquestions,questionableassumptions,and
unknownsthatbesettheanalyticalandpolicymakingcommunity?
ExpertsandpolicymakerswhodealwithRussiaarelivinginahigh-tempoenvironment,
keepingpacewithmilitaryinterventions,crises,andthefrequenttwistsinbilateralrelations.
However,inanysuchendeavor,itispossibletolearnlessonsthatarenottrue.Thisismy
ownattemptatpresentingalistofquestionablebitsofanalysisandassumptionsthatexist
withinthecommunity.Indoingso,Ihopetopushpeopletocriticallyexaminehowtheylook
atRussia.Whydowesaysomeofthesethings,andmoreimportantlywhydowethink
them?
1.TheRussianGovernmentisBrittle.Orisit?
PresentingVladimirPutin'sregimeasbrittleisoftenanalyticalshorthandforarguingthathis
regimeisdangerousinthenearterm,butequallylikelytoimplodeinshortorder,with
Russiadescendingintoturmoilandinstability.Indeed,Moscowhasaccumulatedsomany
domesticandforeignpolicyproblemsthatitwouldmakethisalogicalassessmentwereit
notforthepoortrackrecordofsuchpredictions.Witheachnewoutbreakinwhathas
becomeanalmostroutineseriesofpolitical,economic,orforeignpolicycrises,asegment
oftheRussia-watchercommunityinvariablybeginstomakepredictionsofPutin'simminent
demise.Unfortunately,thescienceofpredictingregimechangeseemstolagsignificantly
behindastrology.WeshouldrememberthatfewpredictedtheSovietUnion'srapiddemise,
thestartoftheArabSpring,oranticipatedtherapidfallofVictorYanukovichinUkraine
followingthestartoftheMaidan.
Therearetwoongoingcasestudiesonthemeritofsuchpredictions.ThefirstisPakistan,
acountrythatbythesametheoryshouldhavecollapsedlongagoundertheweightofits
manyproblems.ThesecondisNorthKorea,whichsoldiersondespitedecadesof
predictionsandestimatesoftheregime'simminentimplosion.AsformerSecretaryof
DefenseRobertGatesremarkedonourabilitytopredictthenatureandlocationofthenext
conflict,"ourrecordhasbeenperfect"giventhat"we'veneveroncegottenitright."The
sameshouldbesaidofourabilitytojudgeregimebrittleness.Thepointisnotthatneo-
Kremlinologyorassessmentsofpoliticalstabilityareawasteoftime,butthatthisisa
singlelayerofanalysisthatshouldbetakenwithahealthydoseofskepticism.
UndoubtedlythosewhoregularlypredictPutin'sdownfallwillonedaybevindicated,butfor
planningandanalyticalpurposes,ourexpectationsshouldbetempered.Thenexttestof
politicalbrittlenesscomesin2018whenwewillseehowreadyandwillingtheRussian
publicistoacceptPutin'sautomaticre-election.Nobodyknowswhatthestateofthe
economy,currencyvaluation,foreignexchangereserves,oilprices,orinternationalposition
ofRussiawillbethatyear.
2.TheUnitedStateshasaPutinProblem,notaRussiaProblem.OrDoesit?
Theindividualsinpowermatter,andanotherRussianleadermaynothavechosentoannex
CrimeaorinvadeUkraineinresponsetotheMaidan'svictory.Thatbeingsaid,thelingering
debateonwhethertheUnitedStateshasaPutinproblemoraRussiaproblemisan
unsettledone.IfoneassumesthattherealproblemisPutin'sregime,howeverlongitmight
last,thenthenaturalcourseofactionistoavoidanybargainswithRussia,cauterizethe
damagetothebilateralrelationshipandwaitforanotherleader.Mypersonalviewisthat
whoeversucceedsVladimirPutinwillnotprovetobeallthatdifferent,andwilllikelyfollowa
similarpolicypath.
RussianhistorysuggeststhatPutinisanythingbutanaberrationinleadership,pursuing
securitydilemmasinthesamemannerofmanypreviousoccupantsoftheKremlin.Seeing
Russia'ssecurityspaceasazero-sumgameandsecuringitbylimitingthesovereigntyof
itsneighborsisalmostcanonforRussianforeignpolicy(asitwasforSovietpolicy).We
shouldaskifPutin'sforeignpolicyisfundamentallysodifferentfromthatofBorisYeltsin,
Russia'sfirstdemocraticleader,orifRussiawassimplytooweakduringYeltsin'sruleto
challengethepost-ColdWarsecurityarrangementsinEurope.Inearly2014,Henry
KissingerwarnedWashingtonnottofixateonPutinwhenhewrotethat"FortheWest,the
demonizationofVladimirPutinisnotapolicy,itisanalibifortheabsenceofone."
YeltsintoobelievedintheapplicationofforcetoachievedesiredpoliticalendsinRussiaand
onitsperiphery.ExamplesarefoundamongRussianinterventionsinTransnistriaand
Tajikistanin1992andAbkhaziain1993,theuseoftankstosuppressaconstitutionalcrisis
inMoscow,theFirstChechenWarin1994-96,andtheRussianparatrooperdeploymentto
seizePristinaInternationalAirportin1999aheadofNATO'sdeploymentinKosovo.In
retrospect,thatadministrationwasnotshortonmilitarygambits,complaintsaboutNATO
expansion,orgripeswithU.S.militaryinterventions.ThecharacterofYeltsin'sgovernment
wasquitedifferentfromPutin'sregime,butarguablyitwasunderhisleadershipinthe
1990sthatRussiabeganandendeditsbriefflirtationwithdemocracy.Intruth,wehave
Yeltsin'spresidencytothankforPutin.
Putin'sviewoftheworldmayhaveevolvedduringhisrule,butthereislittleevidencethat
weshouldexpecthissuccessortotraveladifferentpath.Thusfar,thereisnothingto
suggestthatthenextRussianleader,whenfacedwithasimilarinternationalandregional
environmentwillnotattempttoengagetheWest,leavedisappointedandreverttothe
ruthlesspursuitofRussiannationalinterest.Anotherquestionseldomraisediswhether
U.S.policytowardsRussiawouldtrulychangeifitstroublesomeleaderweretodisappear
tomorrow.
3.MoscowCannotKeepThisUp.OrCanit?
CurrentdiscourseonRussia'seconomicfrailtyfoldsintothebroaderdiscussionon
whetherornotMoscowcansustainthecurrentstateofconfrontation.Inotherwords,how
longcanMoscowkeepthisup?TheunderlyingquestioniswhetherRussiawillceasebeing
aprobleminthenear-tomid-termbysuccumbingtoitseconomicwoes.Thenarrativethat
RussiawillrunoutofmoneyisprevalentintheWest,eventhoughMoscow'sforeign
reserveshavebothstabilizedandshownamodestreboundinrecentmonths.Thebigger
questioniswhydowetalkaboutRussiaasthoughitwasabankoracompany?Did
Russiagooutofbusinessafterthe1998default?
WhatistheactualconnectionbetweenWesternsecurityconsiderationsvis-a-visRussia,
itsforeignandnationalsecuritypolicy,andtheamountofmoneyithasonhand?Putin
announcedambitiousmilitaryreformsin2009,whenthepriceofoilfellto$35perbarrel.
RussiainvadedUkraineandannexedCrimeain2014eventhoughtheRussianeconomy
wasclearlyenteringarecessioninlate2013.Lookingfurtherback,Russianspersevered
throughthefinancialdefaultandcurrencycrisisof1998,manygoingthebetterpartofa
yearwithoutsalaries.PutinwasanointedasYeltsin'ssuccessorfollowingthiseconomic
carnage,andintheaftermathlaunchedtheSecondChechenWarin1999,aprolonged
conventionalandcounterinsurgencycampaign.
Thisdiscussionbegsamoreessentialquestionastowhetherornottheeconomyhasever
beenafoundationofRussianpowerintheinternationalsystem.Inapreviousarticlefor
WarontheRocks,IarguedthatRussiahasoftenappearedtobethesickmanofEurope,
technologicallybackwards,withalacklustereconomy,andapoliticalsystemthat
consistentlylagsbehindtheneedsofitssociety.Thatbeingsaid,despiteWesternfearsto
thecontrary,theSovietUnionwasneverasuperpowerbyvirtueofbeingaserious
economiccompetitortotheUnitedStates,letalonetheWest,atbestattaining57percent
ofAmerica'sGNPinthelate1960sbeforefallingbehind.
Today,plentyofseniorU.S.officialsconsiderRussiatobeastrategicthreatandaserious
opponenttoNATOeventhoughitsGDPisbarelyatenthofAmerica's.Inarecentinterview
discussingRussia,DeputyDefenseSecretaryRobertWorkappliedMearsheimer's
definitionofagreatpowertoMoscow,highlightingthereturnofgreatpowerpoliticsinthe
internationalsystem.Granted,hesaidthiswasanarrowlens,butiftheUnitedStates
considersRussiatobeagreatpower(orregionalpowerwithabignucleararsenal)when
itseconomyrepresentsamere3.3percentofglobalGDP,thentheconnectionbetween
economicfundamentalsofpowerandRussia'spositionintheinternationalsystemmerits
furtherdiscussion.
4.RussiaCannotSustainMilitaryOperations.OrCanit?
FollowingcloselythediscussionofeconomicweaknessisageneralsentimentthatRussia
isunabletosustainmilitaryoperationsduetofinancialorforceconstraints.Goingbackto
early2015,thenotionthatRussia'sarmedforcesaretieddownor"stuck"inUkraine
seemstohavedissipated.Themeritofsuchestimateswascastintodoubtwhen,in
Septemberofthisyear,RussiawassimultaneouslysustainingitsdeploymentinUkraine,
conductingtheexpensivestrategicexerciseCenter2015,anddeployinganexpeditionary
operationtoSyria.Itoowaswronginarguingthatlogisticalandfinancialconstraintswould
limitMoscow'sinvolvementinSyriagivenitslackofassetstosustainexpeditionary
operations.
Muchtomyownsurprise,RussiasurgedsealiftbyreflaggingTurkishcommercialshipsto
supportitsincreasingtrooppresenceandbaseexpansions.ForMoscow,necessityisthe
motherofinvention,whereasfortheUnitedStatesitisusuallythemotherofprocurement.
Russiaalsofoundplentyoffundingtotestexpensivelandattackcruisemissilesofalmost
everyvariety.Inarecentpressconference,Putinshowednosignsthateconomic
constraintswouldimpactmilitaryoperations.Instead,itseemsRussiacansustainthisand
allotherlinesofeffortforatleastafewyears.At4.2percentofGDP,or3.3trillionrubles,
Russia'sdefensebudgetisthehighestithasbeensincethecollapseoftheSovietUnion.
Toooftenwetradeinouranalyticalexpertiseforanaccountant'sglasses,asthoughwe
couldcounttheRussianMinistryofDefense'smoneyoritsavailabletroopsbetterthanit
can.Ontheissueofsustainmentofmilitaryoperationsweneedadoseofanalytical
humility.
5.RussiaisStillaPowerinDecline.Orisit?
IfundamentallybelievethatRussiaisapowerinstructuraldecline,butincreasinglyI
wonderabouttherelevanceofthatassessment.Itseemswitheachyearwecaninferless
andlessfromsuchastatement.CelesteWallanderandEugeneRumer,twolongtime
RussiaexpertswhomIholdinthehighestregard,oncewrote:
"Despiteseveralyearsofeconomicgrowthandanewdynamicleader,Russiaremainsa
powerindecline.Neitheritsrecenteconomicsuccessnoritsvigorousleadershipis
sufficienttomakeupforthelong-termlossesthecountryhassufferedortocompensate
forthecontemporaryshortcomingsthatbeliekeyelementsofRussianpower."
TheonlyproblemwiththisremarkablepieceinTheWashingtonQuarterlyisthatitwas
publishedinlate2003.Roughlyadecadelater,PresidentObamasimilarlyopinedthat
Russiaisa"regionalpower"actingoutof"weakness."ManyofRussia'sunderlying
weaknesseswereastruethenastheyarenow,butifRussiaisdeclining,itisdoingsovery
slowly,anditsleadershipdoesnotacceptsuchapredestinedfate.Asimprobableasitmay
be,absentasuddenRussiancollapse,atsomepointwemaybeforcedtoadmitthat
Russiaisdecliningsoslowlythecountrymightjustbemuddlingthrough.
6.DemographyWillDetermineRussia'sFate.OrWillit?
Russia'sdemographicproblemsarecommonlyreferencedasoneofthedriversofits
supposedlyassuredstructuraldecline.Analystsoftenmentiondemographytoeitherblithely
supportthenotionthatRussiawillsimplyceasetobeaproblemfortheWestinthelong
term,orworriedlyspeculatethatthecountrywillbecomedangerouslyunstable.Butwhat
mightRussia'sdemographicstrulydetermine?WillRussiasomehowbelessofastrategic
threatoraconcernfortheUnitedStatesifithasasmallerpopulation?Itisalmostcertain
thatRussiawillhaveenoughmanpowertomaintain1,550strategicnuclearweapons,
alongwithaconventionalforcetoovermatchanyofitsneighbors,saveChina.Perhaps
counterintuitively,intheshortterm,Russia'sarmedforceshavesteadilyincreasedinsize
fromroughly667,000-700,000in2012to900,000today.
Whenconsideringlong-termalternativefuturesitisworthnotingthatRussia'seconomy
andnationalbudgetisinexorablydependentonenergyandresourceextraction.Theseare
industriesthatarenotlabor-intensive.Atthesametime,Russiaisthebeneficiaryofalarge
laborinfluxfromformerSovietRepublics,oftenmakingitthethird-orsecond-highest
recipientofmigrantsintheworld.CanRussianationalizesuchlaboratthecostofinternal
socialcohesion?Howmuchwillitsgovernmentbudgettrulysufferfollowingalaborforce
contraction?Isitevenfairtoassumethatwarfareorsimilarstatetaskswillremain
manpower-intensive30yearsfromnow?AreRussia'sdemographicproblems
fundamentallydifferentfromthoseofotherdevelopedstates,includingmanyU.S.allies?It
strikesmethatRussia'sdemographicdeclineismoreofanopen-endedquestionthana
definitivestatementonthefutureofthecountry.
7.ForPutin,It'sAllAboutRegimeSurvival.Orisit?
Moscow'sannexationofCrimea,invasionofUkraine,andlaunchofoperationsinSyriaare
sometimesexplainedasthethroesofafallingpoliticalsystemengagedina"survival
project."Theunderlyingtheoryunifyingtheseactionsisregimesurvival,brilliantly
advocatedbyLiliaShevtsovainanumberofarticlesandop-eds.Theproblemwiththis
approachisthatregimesurvivalcircularlyexplainseverythingandabsolutelynothingatthe
sametime:Thereisnopoliticalregimeonearththatisnotinterestedinitssurvival.Regime
survivalisaconstantmotivationformany,ifnotall,politicalsystemsandpoliticians.Itisso
fungibleananalyticalapproachthatitlendsitselfusefultoexplaininganyandallpolicy
choicesbyPutin.
Atitscore,thisargumentarbitrarilytakesthedomesticpoliticaloutcomesofMoscow's
actions,suchashighapprovalratingsathome,oraresurgentsenseofnationalism,and
movesthembackintimetobecometheprimaryobjectivesofforeignandnationalsecurity
policy.Thatcouldbetrue,butitseemsimpossibletoproveordisprove.Regimesurvival
maynotbeanincorrectexplanationofMoscow'smotives,butitiscertainlyincompleteas
ananalysisoftherealsourcesofRussiandecision-making.
RussiaAnalysisinPerspective
InmyownnarrowlaneofRussianmilitaryanalysis,thereisalwaysroomforamore
balanced,informed,andnuancedunderstandingofRussia.Perhapsthegreatestwoeof
discussionsonRussianmilitary,strategy,anddecision-making(otherthandebateson
hybridwarfare)istheconstantseesawbetweentwoextremes.Toooften,weareengaged
inanasininedebateastowhetherRussia'smilitaryisfivefeettallor12feettall.
Assessmentstendtotrackmorecloselywithwhereonesitsinthepolicymakingornational
securityestablishment,versuswheretheRussianmilitaryactuallyis,andwhatitcando.
HereIbelievethestartingpointshouldalwaysbeBismarck'sobservationthat"Russiais
neverasstrongasshelooksnorasweakasshelooks."Whenitcomestodecision-
makinganalysis,Putinisregularlycastinstarktermsaseitherabrilliantstrategist,
outfoxingtheWestateveryturn,orcompletelyincompetentwithoutanynotionofwhathe
willdonext.
PerchancethebroadestandmostvexingquestionforU.S.decision-makersandexperts
todayisthis:HowdowedeterRussia?Itisasvagueasitisrecurrent.Theshortansweris
thattheUnitedStatesdoesdeterRussia,whichiswhywe'reallstillhere70yearsafter
nuclearweaponswerefirstused.Amoreanalyticallyinteresting-andpoliticallyvaluable-
questionwouldbehowtheUnitedStatesshouldmanagegreat-powercompetitioninthe
internationalsystemandkeepconfrontationwithRussiafromescalatingintowar.Ifcrises
areinevitableamongthemajorplayers,anditseemstheyare,thenmanagingescalation
dynamicsisparamount.Whenfacedwithaproblem,bureaucracieshaveapredilectionfor
pursuingactivityandconfusingitforachievement,toparaphraseFareedZakaria.Tobetter
structureapolicyorastrategytowardsRussiaweshouldconfrontourownunderlying
assumptionsandthemeritsofprevailingnarratives,andmorerigorouslyseektofillexisting
gapsinanalysis.
[returntoContents]
#4
TheUnzReview
www.unz.com
December23,2015
PutinBlues
ByIsraelShamir
HeavydarknessbefallstheNorththesunrarelyemergesfrombetweentheclouds.This
year,Russiahasnoticeablylessstreetillumination,andthespiritsareanythingbutfestive.
OnlythewhitenessofthesnowandChristmastreesbreakthegloomandremindusofthe
forthcominglowpointofthecosmicwheel,Yuletide,whendaysstartstowaxandnightsto
wane.AsthisstellareventforetellstheNativityofourSavior,thisisaperiodofhopeaftera
verydifficultyear,allovertheworld.
Putinsupportersareunhappy
TheRussianskeepguessingwhatPresidentPutinwilltelltheminhistraditionaltelevised
addresstothenationatthebreakoftheNewYear.Heshouldsay,thisyearisover,andwe
shallallcheer,peoplepropose.Eventhemostoptimisticonesaredisappointedby
lacklustreeconomicperformance,andtheyblamethegovernmentofPrimeMinister
Medvedevandhisliberalmonetaristteam.MeanwhilePutinrisesabovetheblamegame,
butthegovernmentislessandlesspopular.
-AstheRoubledrops,eventheratherpro-Kremlinmass-circulationnewspaperKP(full
disclosure:IwriteanoccasionalcolumnfortheKP)publishedacallfortheeconomyand
financeministerstoresignortobefired.ThereisaverylittlechancethatMrPutinwilltake
thisadviceandcleanhisgovernmentstables.
-Hecouldbeefuphiscreditbydumpingsome(orall)ofhisministers,butPutinisstubborn
andunusuallyloyaltohiscolleagues.Noaccusationhaseverconvincedhimtodismissa
manofhisteam.HisformerdefenceministerMrSerdyukovhasallegedlybeeninvolvedin
someshadydealing,whileSerdyukov'sparamourandassistantamassedmillionsby
sellingprimeMODassetstohercronies.Still,Putindidnotdumphim,andsavedhimfrom
jail.(HehadtoresigntobecomeaCEO,whilesheservedafewweeksinprison,atmost).
-Lastweek,theoppositionleaderMrNavalnyairedsomeheavychargesagainstAttorney
GeneralChayka.Forhisdefence,Chaykasaidthatthemanbehindthecampaignisthe
notoriousMrBrowder.BrowderisanAmericancrookwhomanagedtoappropriatemany
high-qualityRussianassetsforpenniesduringYeltsin'sprivatisation.Eventuallyhewas
forcedtopartwithhislootandhehasbeensentencedtomanyyearsofjailinabsentia.
Browderisslime,nodoubt,butitisaweakdefenceforChayka.Still,Putinrefusedtodrop
Chaykaoreventoinitiateanindependentinvestigationofhisallegedcrimes.
-PutinstandsbythemosthatedpoliticianofYeltsin'sera,MrAnatolyChubays.The
FinancialTimescalledhimFathertotheOligarchs.Afterleavingthegovernment,Chubays
hasbeenappointedtoleadtheRUSNANO,astate-ownedcorporationnotoriousforits
embezzlementandwaste.Putinsavedhimmanytimesoverfromprosecution.
-Putinwent,hatinhand,toYekaterinburgforthegrandopeningofBorisYeltsin'sMemorial
Centre(pricetag-ninebillionroubles)andreferredkindlytotheloathedlatePresidentwho
appointedhimhissuccessor.Peoplewerefuriousseeingtheirpresidentenjoyinghimself
amongthecarpetbaggersofYeltsin'sregime.
-CanyouimagineFoxTVtransmittingRussianpropaganda?InRussia,amajorchunkof
Russianmedia,state-ownedorsubsidisedbythetaxpayer,transmitspro-Westernand
anti-Russianagenda,allegedtheeminentfilmdirectorNikitaMichalkov,astaunch
supporterofPutin,inhisvideoseenbyovertwomillionviewersinafewdays.Hecalled
uponPutintoasserthislineandbanishtheenemieswithin,butstateTVrefusedto
broadcastthevideo.
-Putin'srecentpress-conferenceprovidedachanceformorecriticism.Besidethepoints
mentionedabove,thejournalistsaskedwhystateenterpriseCEOsarepaidmillionsof
dollarsayear,whileeverybodyelseiscalledupontotightenthebelt.Theyaskedwhythe
RussianCentralBankkeepsbuyingUSbondsandsupportstheUSDollarattheexpense
oftheRouble.Theyaskedwhyimportsubstitutiondoesnotworketc.
Theseareprotestsfromthepro-Putincrowd,frompeoplewhosupportedhistakeoverof
CrimeaandhisentryintoSyrianwar.Theycouldbearsomedeprivation,buttheyareupset
byPutin'scondoningthieves,byhisapparentcronyism,byhisoligarchfriends.Untilnow,
thecriticsavoidedattackingPutin,butthesearetheearlyswallows.DrStepanSulakshin,
theheadofaMoscowthinktank,publiclyaccusedPutinofknowinglyleadingRussiainto
furtherdegradation.
ThisbubblingdissatisfactionofPutin'ssupportersmayyetturnmoredangerousforthe
presidentthanthe2011Frondeofhishipsterenemies.Meanwhile,head-strongMrPutin
doesnotwishtoyieldground,sacrificesomeofmorehatedministersandCEOs,orattune
internalpoliciestopublicexpectations.Perhapsheisright,andthingsarenotwhatthey
appear,butjusticemustbeseen,notonlydone.
TalkingTurkeywithIsrael
TheTurkishfrictioncausedbyErdogan'sdecisiontoshootdowntheRussianbomberis
anothersourceofPutin'sblues.HehadspentalotofeffortnurturingrelationswithTurkey.
Allthiseffortwentdownthedrain.Therearemultimillionprojects,fromagaspipelineto
tourism.Allthatwascutdownatonce.Putin'splanstodelivergastoEuropebypassingthe
hostileUkrainecollapsed.ThisisahugesetbackfortheRussianpresident.
Therhetoricbetweentheleadersbecameacrimonious.HotheadsinRussiaspeakof
seizingtheBosporusandDardanelles,ofturningIstanbulintoConstantinopleandplanting
thecrossontheancientStSophiachurch.TheTurkishpresidentthreatenedtooccupy
Russiawithinoneweek-withhelpofNATO.
Turkey'schoiceisaresultofitsover-involvementinSyria.Withsomuchinvestment,
ErdoganwasloathtoseeSyriagone.WhilehisdecisiontodowntheRussianjetwas
ratherextreme,therelationsalreadyweretense.
Putin'striptoErevanandhiscondemnationof"TurkishgenocideoftheArmeniansin1915"
wasanunnecessaryprovocation.Nootherworldleaderdidit,butFrancoisHollandeof
FrancewhoflewinfortwohoursandproceededtoBaku,thecapitalofAzeriTurksthus
levellingtheplayingfield.IactuallycalleduponPutintoavoidthisstep,butthestrong
Armenianlobbyinsistedonthistrip.
Afterwards,therewasasupposedleak(inreality:afake)ofaharshandinsulting
conversationbetweenPutinandtheTurkishambassador.IcheckedwiththeAmbassador
andothersides.Itwasafake,butthisfakehasbeenspreadinmillionsofsitesandposts.
However,the$64,000questionisaboutSyria:willitbecomeavassalstatetothe
reconstitutedOttomansorwillitremainasovereignstatewithstrongtiestoRussia.
RussiathoughtithasastrongerhandasaninviteeoftheSyrianlegitimategovernment
TurkeydeniedBashar'slegitimacy.
TheriftbetweenTurkeyandRussiabecameafact.ItsmainbeneficiariesweretheUS-
andIsrael.Forthelastfiveyears,therelationsbetweenIsraelandTurkeywerehostile,
sinceIsraelicommandosmassacredninepeaceactivistsonboardtheTurkishvesselNavi
Marmara.InfaceoftheRussianthreat,theTurksagreedtomakepeacewithIsrael.
Israelisinvolvedintheconflictmorethanitadmits.TheRussianshaspublishedtheir
evidenceofDaeshoilbeingsmuggledtoTurkeybyTurkishcompanies.Thiscausedalotof
indignationinRussiaandelsewhere.Howdotheydaretobuystolenoilandfinancethe
terrorists!
TheRussiansforgottomentionthatthesmuggledoilgoestoIsrael.Israelisthemain
buyerofoilproducedbytheKurdsandbyDaesh.Thiswasreportedandcorroboratedby
theFTandbyAlArabyalJadeed.TheRussianmediaavoidedthetopic,asPutincherishes
hisgoodrelationswithNetanyahu.
Lastweek,IsraelisattackedsuburbsofDamascusandkilledsomeRussianallies,
Hezbollahfighters.Again,Russianstookitquietly.Noneofindignationcausedbydowning
ofthebomberseepedintotheRussianmedia.
Israelsupportsal-Nusra,declaredaterroristorganisationbytheUN.Thisisnotasecret:
recentlytheDailyMailpublishedareportglorifyingIsraelisoldierssavinglivesofthe
Islamistfighters.ThousandsofwoundedguerrillasreceivedmedicalassistanceinIsraeli
hospitalsandwentbacktofightBashar.
IsraelhasagoodworkingrelationswithDaesh,too.IwastoldthatDaeshtroopsentered
thePalestiniancampalYarmukbeingequippedwithlonglistsofPalestinianactivists.They
wereassembledandpubliclyexecuted.ThePalestiniansthinkthatDaeshreceivedthe
namesfromIsraelisecretserviceandactedupontheirrequest.Moreover,Daeshnever
everattackedaZionisttarget.
Putin-andRussianmediadidnotsayawordonthat.PerhapsPutinisrightRussiadoes
notneedsuchastrongenemyasIsrael,sinceIsraelileaderscansay"Jump,UncleSam,"
andUncleSamwillask"Howhigh?"However,theycouldtonedowntheirindignation
regardingTurkishoilsmuggling,TurkishhelptotheguerrillasandotherTurkishmisdeeds.
Israelisobjectivelyanenemy:itisanenemyofRussia'salliesHezbollahandIranitwants
dismembermentofSyriainordertokeepGolanHeightsforgooditprefersaSomalised
Syriatoahealthyandstrongone.ButNetanyahuplayshishandcautiouslydespitehis
feelingofinvulnerability.
TheIsraeliattackontheDamascussuburbstookplacedespitetheRussianC-400
operatinginSyria.ExpertssaytheC-400hasbeenplacedinLatakiaanditcan'teffectively
protecttheskiesabovetheSyriancapital,whiletheC-300purchasedbytheSyriansand
locatedinDamascushasbeenhitbyIsraelis.Meanwhile,theIsraeliAirForceistrainingat
avoidingandcopingwithaC-300inCyprus,asthatcountryhasaC-300ofitsown,
recentlyboughtfromtheRussians.
PutinhasnothingtogainfromconfrontationwithIsraelIsraelpreferstohaveitsway
withoutfightingtheRussians.Perhaps,soonerorlater,theIsraeliandRussianAirForces
willjoustbutmeanwhilebothsidesprefertopostponethatmoment.
PutinhopesErdoganwillgiveuponSyria.Thisisnotaneasytask,butnotanimpossible
one,either.Forthat,PutinmustworkwithPresidentObama-orwiththenextAmerican
President.
PutinvsWesternLeaders
ItisoftensaidthatPresidentObamaisaweakleader.Idonotthinkso.Heisawilyand
sophisticatedplayer.HevoidseveryagreementhiscountrymadewithRussia.Therewere,
andareagreementsgalore:fromMinsktotherecentUNSCresolutions.Atfirst(and
second)sight,theagreementsfollowtheRussianline.Otherwise,theRussianswouldnot
signthem.However,afterawhileObamaoffersadifferentinterpretation.Iwouldnotliketo
argueagainsthiminacourtoflaw.Heisastrickyasanylawyer.
Didhegiveuponthe"Assadmustgo"mantra?Itisnotclear.He,andhisSecretaryof
StateJohnKerrysometimessaythathemaystay,butquicklycontradictthemselvesand
insistonhisdeparture.Theyintroducenewandpeculiarideasdaily.Forexample,theysay
"OnlySunnismaydealwiththeSyriancrisis".ThisstrangeideainspiredtheSaudisand
theyevenclaimedtheyorganisedahugecoalitionofSunnistatestofightDaesh.Needless
tosay,withinafewdaysthis"coalition"vanishedlikedewundersunrays.
However,atthebottomline,ObamaplaysbyaColdWarscriptagainstRussia.Likea
drunkardaccusesothersofheavydrinking,heaccusedMittRomneyof"ColdWar
thinking",andwarnedPutinofhis"ColdWarthinking",butasadiscipleofZbigniew
Brzezinskihehardlycanthinkofanythingelse.EvenPentagongeneralscomplainedabout
thismatrixofhismind,saysSeymourHersh.
ThereisnothingPutinwantslessthananewroundoftheColdWar.HeisnotanewSoviet
leader.PeoplewhodreamofanewStalinarebarkingupawrongtree.Onemayregretit,
andmanyRussiansdoregretit,butPutinhasnogreatplansofsocialrearrangement.His
ambitionismoremodest:hewantsRussiatobeindependent,prosperous,great,and
equaltoothergreatnationslikeitwasin19thcentury.
LastweekIwasattheStPetersburgCulturalForum,agatheringofartists,curators,and
artministersfrom40countries,anditwasclearthatPutin'sRussiaismuchmore
interestedinitspre-revolutionarypastandinthe19thcenturyingeneral,thanin20thor
21stcenturyart.TheyperformedalostplaybyPuccini,theyreconstructedPetipaballets,
theyreadTolstoy.Theyrebuiltpalaces,theyfixedoldtheatres,eventhepre-revolutionary
circushadbeenreturnedtoitsoldgloryinclusiveofitsoldwell-forgottennameandthe
royalcircle.SomanyrestaurantsbearnamesremindingeveryoneoftheTsartimes.
ThereisawindofnostalgiainRussia,anditisforRussiaofLeoTolstoyandTchaikovsky.
PutinhasorderedthattheremainsoftheWhitegenerals,philosophers,artistsbebrought
backforburialontheRussiansoil.SovietandCommunistmemoriesaresuppressed.
Recently,PrimeMinisterMedvedevcalledforanotherboutofcommemorationsforStalin's
victims.Iamnotsurethatthisisawisepolicyperhapsitwouldbebettertoletpasttotake
careofitself.Buthereweare:Putinandhiscrowdareold-styleliberals,notsocial
reformers.Theydonotwanttoraisethebannerofrevolt.Theywanttofitintotheworldasit
is,butasequals.
Theproblemis,therearepeoplewhoarehell-bentonhegemonyandfull-spectrum
dominance,andtheyarenotlikelytoallowRussiatogoitsownway.Theywanttoimpose
theirrules,andsetinplacetheirdocilerulers.That'swhytheverymodestintentionsof
PutinmeetsomuchresistanceinNATOandthePentagon,intheWhiteHouseandin
Westminster.What'sworse,thesepeoplealreadycontrolthemainstreampoliticsofmany
countries,fromtheUStoJapan,toFranceandSweden.Itdoesnotmatterwhichofthe
mainstreampoliticianswinelections,theresultisthesame.
Putin's(andRussia's)hopelaysinpoliticiansoutsidethecontrolledmainstream.Donald
Trumpisagoodexample.PutinisnotparticularlyinterestedinUSinternalpoliticsandinMr
Trump'sunusualproposals.ThisisaninternalmatteroftheUS,andPutinsteersclearofit,
likehewantstheUStosteerclearofRussia'sinternalmatters.Forhim,whatisimportant,
isthatTrump'sAmericawouldnottrytodominatetheworldandimposeitsagenda.The
moralquestionwhetherTrump'sideasaboutMuslimsorLatinosareloftyorbaseisa
questionfortheAmericanpeopletodecide.Putinandmanyotherforeignleaderswant
America'snon-interferenceintheirinternalaffairs.
TherudeMr.Trumpseemstobethecandidateleastlikelytopushthebuttonfornuclear
suicideofmankind.MuchlesslikelythanniceMrsClintonwhocouldnukeRussiabecause
Russiansdonotcelebrategaymarriages.Remember,hernicehusbandbombedBelgrade
becausethenastySerbsdidnotallowforthesecessionofCroats(orwasitAlbanians?)
Trump-oranystraightforwarddecentpoliticianwhodoesnottakeordersfromtheMasters
ofDiscourse-wouldbeabletoplayballwithMrPutin,byclassicalrulesofinternational
law.TrumpandPutincouldreturntheconceptofsovereigntytoitsprivilegedposition.This
wouldendmanywars.ThewarinSyriabeganwhenMrObamaandMrHollandesaid
"Assadmustgo".Bytheclassicalrules,nostatemayinterfereintheaffairsofanother
sovereignstate.FromtheRussianpointofview,thewarinSyriaisfirstofallawarfor
sovereigntyandagainstglobalImperialvassaldom.
TheRussianswanttolighttheirChristmastreesandwishMerryChristmasandgowith
theirwomenandchildrentoaChristianchurchwithoutbeingscoldedbytheObamasand
ClintonsofthisworldforinsufficientpoliticalcorrectnessandfailuretomentionKwanzaa.
That'swhyitisimportantforallofusifwemayhopetoreachpeace,thisChristmasorthe
nextone.
[returntoContents]
#5
Kremlin.ru
December22,2015
FirstRussianInternetEconomyForum
VladimirPutinattendedtheFirstRussianInternetEconomyForum.
TheFirstRussianInternetEconomyForumistakingplaceinMoscowonDecember21-22.
Theplenarysession,attendedbyrepresentativesofthenationalITindustryandrelevant
ministriesandagencies,isdedicatedtoinitiativesforthelong-termdevelopment
programmeoftheRussianInternetsegmentandbranchesoftheeconomyusinginternet
technologies.
Priortotheplenarysession,thePresidentattendedanexhibitionofinnovativeprojects,
wherewasshown,inparticular,developmentsinbanktechnologies,cyber-protectionfor
industrialfacilitiesandthosedirectedatenhancingtheaccessibilityofpublicservicesfor
thepublic.
VladimirPutinalsohadaconversationwithForumparticipants.
PresidentofRussiaVladimirPutin:Goodafternoon,friends.
Togetherwithyourboard,wehavejusthadadetaileddiscussionoftheissuesyou
consideredyesterdayregardingspecificbranchesoftheeconomy.Ifounditinteresting.I
hopewehavemanagedtoagreeoncertainmatters.IcanseemyaideIgorShchegolev
here,theformerMinisterandnowmyPresidentialAide.Weagreedthatifourcolleagues
decidetodoso,thenwewillbehappytohandovertheresponsibilityforeverythingyou
agreedonandproposedasnecessaryforjointeffortstopromoteyourinitiativestooneof
yourcolleagues,whomIinvitedtoworkatthePresidentialExecutiveOfficewithMr
Shchegolev.ThiswillallowustopromoteyourideaswithinthePresidentialExecutive
Officeaswell,andalsowithintheexecutivebodiesintheGovernmentandtheregionsof
theRussianFederation,whichisnolessimportant.
Generally,inthepastyearstheInternethascertainlybecomepartofourdailylives.
Moreover,ithasbecomeaseparateindustrypracticallyallovertheworld,andyouspoke
aboutthisyesterday.Russiaiskeepingabreastofthings,ofcourse.Imaybesayingvery
generalthingsnotintendedforthisaudience,maybeforthosewhoarestandingtherewith
thecameras,sothatpeopleinthiscountrywillfindoutmoreaboutthis:Russiahasthe
largestnumberofInternetusers-inexcessof80millionpeople,with62millionofthem
goingonlineonadailybasis.Asoneoftheboardmemberssaid,peoplelookattheir
phonesabout300timesadaytoseewhatisgoingonintheworld,orineverydaylife,
thingsthatinterestpeoplewhousetheInternet.
ThenumberofcommercialInternetusersisalsogrowingrapidly.TheInternetmarket
accountsfor16percentoftheGDP.Remoteaccesstechnologiesareextensivelyusedto
providepublicandmunicipalservices,whichIamveryhappytosay,becausejustrecently
wewereonlybeginninghere.Generally,therehasbeengoodprogress.Intheprevious
year,morethanathirdofallpublicandmunicipalservicesbecameavailableonline.
ThesignificanceandinfluenceoftheInternetareconstantlygrowing.Weneedtousethe
Internetasadriverofmodernisationfortheentirecountry(thisisanundisputedfactand
nobodyhasanydoubtaboutit,andwearereadytohelpandsupportyouinyour
endeavours)toraisethequalityoflife,tocreateanewtechnologicalbasisforthenational
economyand,ofcourse,forthesocialspheres-educationandhealthcare.
TheInternetInitiativesDevelopmentFundhasbecomeoneoftheinstrumentsavailablefor
resolvingthesetasks.Wesetituptwoyearsagoanditseemstobedoingwell.Italready
has6billionrublesatitsdisposal.Overthe2.5yearsofitswork,theFundhasaddedover
170projectstoitsportfoliodesignedtoresolvespecificissuesfacingbothindividualsand
businesses.
Wedefinitelyneedtodevelopastrategyforthelong-termdevelopmentoftheRussian
Internet,takingintoconsiderationtheoveralldevelopmenttendenciesoftheworldwide
web.Ifullyagreewithyouthat,bearinginmindtheoveralltendenciesandwithgreat
respectforourpartnersandcompetition,wemustcreatecommonlivingandworking
conditionsforallonthismarket.Nobody,primarilyournationalparticipants,shouldbeputin
asituationthatwouldmakeyoulesscompetitive.Ifullyagreewiththosewhoreferredtothe
decisionswearemakingintherealeconomy,inindustryandagriculture,saying:wedo
offercertainbenefitstoRussianmarketplayers,tonationalproducers,sowhynotdothe
samehere.Iagree:wearereadytoconsiderthisanddosomething,provided,ofcourse,
thatitdoesnotviolateourWTOcommitments.Iamcertainwecanfindappropriate
solutions.
Iwouldliketowishyousuccess.Thankyouverymuch.
[returntoContents]
#6
www.rt.com
December22,2015
'14yearsofoccupationbyworld'srichestnation,Afghanistanremainsdesperate'
Outsideforcescannotdictatewhatacountry'sgoverningsystemisgoingtolooklike,but
that'swhat'shappeninginAfghanistan,saysMedeaBenjamin,cofounderofleft-wingNGO
CodePinktoldRT.
TwoattackstookplaceinAfghanistanonMonday.Threerocketshitthediplomaticareain
Kabulsomewayfromthecenterofthecity.Thathappenedafteramotorbikesuicide
bombercarriedoutanattackontheBagramairbasekillingsixUStroops.
Meanwhile,theTalibanisaggressivelypushingbackintoHelmandprovince.Themilitants
aresaidtobeclosetooverrunningthekeycityofSangin.
USSecretaryofStateJohnKerryhasdescribeddevelopmentsinAfghanistanaspositive.
However,AmericanpoliticalactivistMedeaBenjamindoesn'tagreecallingitaridiculous
statement.
"TheUShasspentprobablyatrilliondollarsinAfghanistananditremainsoneofthe
poorestcountriesintheworldoneoftheworstplacesforwomentohavechildrenoneof
theworstratesofilliteracyamongwomen,"shetoldRT.
TheUSinvadedAfghanistanin2001afterthe9/11attackscarriedoutonUSsoil,and
accordingtoBenjamin,"itiscertainlynotacountrythatafter14yearsofbeingoccupiedby
therichestcountryintheworldhasmuchtospeakforitintermsofdevelopment."
IslamicState(IS,formerlyISIS/ISIL)isnowfightingtheTalibanwhichcouldmakethings
evenworsefortheAfghanpeople.
ActivistarguesthatitisterriblethatafteralloftheseyearsandthebillionsofdollarstheUS
hasputintotraininglocalAfghanforcestheyarestillnotabletocontroltheirowncountry.
"Ithinkitisareflectionofthefactthatoutsideforcescomingincannotdictatewhata
country'sgoverningsystemisgoingtolooklike,"saidBenjamin.
Shesuggeststherehasalwaysbeenaneedforapoliticalsolutiontotheproblemsin
AfghanistanandtheUSshouldputitsmoneyintodevelopingthecountryinsteadofthe
military.
Speculatingonpossiblesolutions,theactivistsaidtherehavebeenconstantattemptsat
talkwiththeTaliban.However,shebelievesthattheyneedtogetseriousaboutthat.
"JohnKerryshouldputsomeofhisdiplomaticenergiesintofindingapoliticalsolutionthatis
goingtounfortunatelyhavetoincludetheTalibanaspartofatransition.TheTalibanare
localpeopleandtheycan'tbewishedaway,"BenjamintoldRT.
"ButIthinktheremaining10,000UStroopsarenotgoingtobeenoughtodictatetothe
Afghangovernmentwhatitspolicyshouldbe,"shecontinued.
Benjaminsaidthatithastobeapoliticalsolutionandallenergyandresourcesshouldbe
putintothatgoal.
'ObamaadministrationwantstopushSEALabusesinAfghanistanundertherug'
Meanwhile,aNewYorkTimesreporthasaccusedtheUSNavyofcoveringuptheabuseof
AfghandetaineeswhichtookplaceinMay2012.
TheNavalCriminalInvestigativeServicelaunchedaninvestigationintoacasewhere
tortureresultedinthedeathofamandetainedbyUSNavySEALS.Despiteeyewitness
accountsagainsttheUSservicemen,thenavyprobedismissedthecharges,claimingthe
evidencedidn'tsupporttheallegedmisconduct.
CriminaldefenseattorneyandformerCIAofficerJackRicespeakingaboutdetaineeabuse
saidthatinacaselikethisthereshouldnothavebeenaminimalinvestigation.
"Thisshouldhavebeenafull-blowncriminalinvestigation,whichisfarmoreseriousonthe
militaryside,"hetoldRT.
Headdedthatiftheywantedtotakethistotheextreme,theycouldhavebeenchargedin
FederalCourt,whichisaciviliancourtintheUS.
"Baseduponthefactthattherewasadeathinthiscaseitshouldhavenotbeen
investigatedasitwas,"Ricesaid.
Ricearguesthattheinvestigationcouldbereopened"basedupontheseriousnessofthe
caseandthefactthatessentiallyitwasdismissed."
"Itisdisturbingthattheyseemtomakeadecisiontotreatthisasinconsequentiallyasthey
havereallybaseduponthedeathofoneofthedetainees,"hecontinued.
TheSEAL'scommandersaidtheevidenceprovidedinthereportwasinconsistent.
Ricesaiditwaspossiblethereareinconsistenciesinthereport."Butthatinitselfitdoesn't
meanthatyoushouldn'tgoforwardwithaninvestigation,"headded.
AccordingtoRice,heregularlyencountersreportsthathaveinconsistencieswithinthem.
"Thatdoesn'tstoptheinvestigation,thatdoesn'tstoptheprosecutionjustbecausesome
thingsdon'tcompletelyaddupdoesnotmeanyoushouldnotcontinuetodigitdoesn't
meanthatyoushouldnotpotentiallyevenchargesomebodywithseriouscriminal
offenses,"headded.
TheformerCIAofficerconsiderstheUSgovernmentistryingtoburytheinvestigationitself.
"Thefactthatwhattheydidwasdivertthistoaminimalinvestigationandtothekindof
investigationandprocessforinconsequentialevents,ratherthansomethingfarmore
seriousreallytellsmethattheyaresortoftryingtopushitaway,totrytoputitunderthe
rug."
In2009PresidentObamasaidhedidn'tthink2000picturesoftortureshouldbereleased
becausethiswouldendangerUStroopsabroad.RicearguesthatPresidentObama
decidedhewasnotgoingtoreleasetheAbuGhraibphotos.
"Whenhewasrunningforofficehepromisedhewantedtransparencyandhewantedthe
Americanpeopleandtheworldtoseethephotosthemselves,"hetoldRT.
Inconclusionhesaidthat"thelikelihoodofsuccessinreopeningthisisnotverycertainat
thispoint."
"Myexpectationisitwillnotbereopened,"Ricepredicted.
[returntoContents]
#7
TheNationalInterest
December23,2015
America'sColdWarMasterPlantoNukeRussia
ByMichaelPeck
MichaelPeck,afrequentcontributortotheNationalInterest,isadefenseandhistorical
writerbasedinOregon.HisworkhasappearedinForeignPolicy,WarIsBoringandmany
otherfinepublications.
IftheColdWarhadturnedthermonuclear,weknowthattheUnitedStatesandSovietUnion
wouldhavebeendevastated.
Butnowforthefirsttime,weknowwhichRussiancitieswouldhavebeendestroyed,and
why.TheU.S.governmenthasfinallydeclassifiedthe1950sStrategicAirCommandtarget
list,whichwouldhavedispatchedAmericanbombersandmissilesonnuclearstrikes
acrosstheCommunistworld.
"SAClistedover1200citiesintheSovietbloc,fromEastGermanytoChina,alsowith
prioritiesestablished,"accordingtotheNationalSecurityArchive,thenon-governmental
organizationwhichrequestedthedeclassifiedinformation."MoscowandLeningradwere
priorityoneandtworespectively.Moscowincluded179DesignatedGroundZeros(DGZs)
whileLeningradhad145,including'population'targets."
[http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/nukevault/ebb538-Cold-War-Nuclear-Target-List-Declassified-
First-Ever/]
Butatleastintheory,thiswouldnothavebeenwantondestructionorterrorbombing.There
wassupposedtobemethodbehindthenuclearmadness.SAC'sprioritywastodestroy
SovietairpowerbeforeSovietbombers-thiswasbeforeICBMsweredevelopedinthe
1960s-couldstrikeAmericanandWesternEuropeantargets.Some1,100airfieldswere
targetedandprioritized,withtheSovietTu-16BadgerbomberbasesinBykhovandOrsha
inByelorussiaatthetopofthelist.OnceSovietairwarcapabilityhadbeendestroyed,and
assumingbothsideswereinanystatetocontinuethewar,thenSovietindustrywouldhave
beenbombednext.
Andsowouldalotofinnocents.TheSACtargetlist,compiledin1956andpublishedas
partofa1959nuclearweaponsplanningstudy,deliberatelyincludedcivilianpopulations.
TheSACplanspecified"the'systematicdestruction'ofSovietblocurban-industrialtargets
thatspecificallyandexplicitlytargeted'population'inallcities,includingBeijing,Moscow,
Leningrad,EastBerlin,andWarsaw,"notedNationalSecurityArchiveresearchers.
"Purposefullytargetingcivilianpopulationsassuchdirectlyconflictedwiththeinternational
normsoftheday,whichprohibitedattacksonpeopleperse(asopposedtomilitary
installationswithciviliansnearby)."
Mostofthe800pagesofdocumentsconsistoflistsoftargetsandtheirassociated
alphanumerictargetnumbers.SACplannersassumedin1959theycouldstrikewith2,130
B-52andB-47bombers,RB-47reconnaissanceaircraft,andF-101fighterescorts.In
addition,therewouldbe376nuclear-tippedcruiseandbomber-launchedmissiles,aswell
asearlyintermediate-rangemissiles.The1959studyalsostatesthatmissiles-thiswas
beforeICBMsweredevelopedinthe1960s-hadsuchalowchanceofdestroyingtheir
targetsthatmannedbomberswouldbetheprimaryweapons.
BecauseSACwassofixedonquicklyknockingoutSovietairpower,H-bombswouldhave
beendroppedtoexplodeonthegroundratherthaninmid-air.Whileairburstswouldhave
producedmoreheatandradiation,thefocusonwasachievingmaximumblastdamageto
destroySovietaircraftandbases,despitesomeunintendedsideeffects."Whilethe
objectionstosurfaceburstandtheprobabilityofradioactivefalloutaffectingfriendlyforces
andpeoplehavebeenconsidered,therequirementtowintheAirPowerBattleis
paramounttoallotherconsiderations,"saidtheSACstudy.
However,SACdefinedtheSovietairpowerinfrastructurequitebroadly,toincludeany
commandandindustrialcentersthatcouldsupportaRussianaircampaign.ThusMoscow
waslistedashavingnumerousmilitarycommandcenters,aircraftandmissilefactories,
atomicweaponslaboratoriesandoilrefineries.
DespitebeingaNuclearAgeforce,SAC'sstrategymoreresembledtheU.S.bomber
offensiveagainstGermanyandJapaninWorldWarIIthantwenty-firstcenturywarfare.
ConcentratingontheSovietairforceanditsinfrastructurewouldhavebeenfamiliargoals
toB-17andB-29commanders(whichwereindeedthepeoplewhoranSACinthe1950s,
includingCurtisLemay).Thoughitalsoseemsaquaintlylong-warstrategy,asifthe
Sovietswerereallygoingtocapableofmass-producingbombersandnuclearweapons
aftertheinitialnuclearexchange.Thebeliefthatmissilesweretoounreliable,andonly
mannedbomberscouldbetrusted,soundsmuchlikethedronevs.mannedaircraftdebate
today.
DidSAC'stargetingstrategymakesense?Thebetterquestionis,whocares?Fortunately
forthehumanrace,weneverhadachancetofindout.
[returntoContents]
#8
RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines/RossiyskayaGazeta
www.rbth.ru
December23,2015
Fromliteraryjamtolivereadings:RecappingtheYearofLiterature
TheYearofLiteratureofferedmuchtoenjoyforwriters,bloggersandsweetloversalike.
RBTHhascollectedallthemostinterestingfactsandfiguresfromthisliterary
extravaganza.
ANASTASIASKORONDAEVA,ROSSIYSKAYAGAZETA
TheceremonyofpassingthebatonfromtheYearofLiteraturetotheYearofCinemawas
heldinSt.PetersburgonDec.14.Alltheattentiononliteraturethisyearhasthrownup
someinterestingstatistics.
1)Thewinnerofanarratingcompetitionheldduringthefestivalbookmarkettookhome55
poundsoffruitandvegetables.Duringthefirstweekendoffall,shelvesfilledwithbooks
wereinterspersedwiththeusualonesholdingproduceatMoscow'sDanilovskyfoodcourt
andmarket.Surprisedshopperswereabletotakehomegoodliteraturealongwiththeir
normalpurchases.
2)Continuingtheculinarytheme,120litersof"literaryjam"wascookedaroundRussia.
ThestaffofRossiyskayaGazetafoundoldrecipesandmadejamoutdoorsinwriters'
estatesfortheentiresummer.TheymadetheplumdessertfromAnnaKareninain
Tolstoy'sYasnayaPolyanaestateinTulaRegionandusedlocalapplesfromSergei
Yesenin'snativevillageofKonstantinovoinRyazanRegiontomakeajamcelebratinghis
birthday.Readmore>>>
3)InDecember,1300peopletook60hourstoreadLeoTolstoy'sWarandPeaceinalive
broadcast.ThreemonthsbeforeNatashaRostovaandAndreiBolkonskytookthestage,
anotherlivereadingproject,ChekhovAlivebyGoogle,sawthegreatplaywright's
charactersbroadcastovertheinternetfor24hoursstraight.
4)FromJune25-28,RedSquarehosteditsfirsteverbookfair,atwhichmorethan500,000
booksfrom300publishinghousesacross50regionsofRussiawerepresented.FromSt.
Basil'sCathedraltotheStateHistoricalMuseumthesquarehosteddiscussions,alibrary,a
writer'sofficeandevenachildren'splayground.Morethan200,000peopleattendedthe
writers'seminars,concertsandtheatricalperformancesthatformedpartoftheyear's
biggestliteraryevent.Readmore>>>
5)Literaturealsocaughtthepublicimaginationawayfromthebig-namefestivals,markets
andawards.SergeiNifashev,astreetcleanerandbloggerfromBlagoveshchensk,
collectedmorethan100rareeditionsinhisbasement,findingallofthemamongthecity's
trash!Whenhewentthroughthebookshefoundoldmoneyandphotos.Ararefindindeed,
andnotonewerecommendtryingtorepeat-therecouldbeallkindsofnastybugslurking
amongthetrash.
AnabridgedversionofthearticlefirstpublishedinRussianbyRossiyskayaGazeta:
http://www.rg.ru/2015/12/14/goda.html
[returntoContents]
#9
Reuters
December23,2015
Ukrainehealthsystemindangerofcollapseasreformsstall
STAIKY,UKRAINE|BYALESSANDRAPRENTICE
PaintisflakingonthedampwallsandcrackedceilingsofthesmallhospitalintheUkrainian
villageofStaikyandmuchoftheequipmentisover30yearsold.
Runninghotwaterisnotguaranteedandthehospital,servingabout2,800peopleinStaiky
andothervillages,hasnotbeenrefurbishedsinceSoviettimes.
Thereisalsolittlehopeofachangeforthebetteramongmedicalstaffwhorelyon
charitabledonations,oftenfromlocalbusinessmen,tobuyevenbasicmedicinesandthe
petrolneededtovisitpatientsinremoteareas.
AreformdrivelaunchedbytheWestern-leaninggovernmentinstalledafterapro-Moscow
president,ViktorYanukovich,wasoverthrowninapopularuprisinglastyearhasbecome
miredinbureaucraticinertia,argumentsandallegationsofcorruption.
"Idon'tknowwhoiswritingandcarryingoutreformsatthetoporiftheyhaveeverbeentoa
villageandseenhowpeopleliveandwithwhatmedicalservices,"saidfamilydoctorNadiya
MartynenkoinStaiky,aclusterofdilapidatedone-storyhousesontheRiverDnieper,an
hour'sdrivefromthecapitalKiev.
Shesaidstatefundscoveronlytheelectricityandmeagerstaffsalaries,andthatoverthe
pastdecade"they'vecuteverythingtheycouldandevenwhattheyshouldn't...it'svery
precarious."
Staikyisfarfromunique.Soviet-erahospitalsacrossthecountryof42millionare
crumbling,underpaymentofmedicalstaffcontinuestofosterasystemofbribe-takingand
Ukraine'spoorvaccinationratehasplaceditonablacklistalongsidesomeoftheworld's
poorestcountries,includingSouthSudan.
CorruptionhasplaguedUkrainesincethecountrygainedindependencefromtheSoviet
Unionin1991.ButunderYanukovich,itbecamemuchworse.
HealthMinisterAlexanderKvitashvili,oneofseveralforeignersappointedtoministerial
positionsinthehopethattheiroutsiderstatusandinternationalexperiencewouldhelp
Ukrainemakegoodonreformpromises,hopedtorecreatesuccessfulreformscarriedout
inhisnativeGeorgia.
Ayearafterhisappointment,thehealthbilloutliningreformsisstuckinparliament.
"It'sfrustrating.Therearevestedinterests-they'reeverywhere...Workingwiththe
parliamentwedifferonwhatabasicunderstandingofreformis,"KvitashvilitoldReuters.
Withoutacompletereboot,"financiallythesystemwillcollapseinaboutayear,ifnotfaster,
becausethereisnowayUkrainecanincreasespendingtoasustainablelevel,"hesaid.
DEMOCRACYSTRUGGLING
ThestalledhealthbillisoneofmanyexamplesoftheslowprogressUkraineismakingin
reformingitseconomy,promptingWesternbackerstoquestionKiev'scommitmentto
endingcrookedpracticesthatpushedthecountrytothebrinkofbankruptcy.
Squabblesinparliamenthaveheldupotherbills.Someofthesearerequiredforthe
disbursementoffundsundera$40-billioninternationalbailoutprogram,andKiev'sWestern
backerswarnthatitsattempttorebuilditselfontransparent,democraticlinesisunder
threat.
Ukraine'sprogresshasalsobeenhamperedbyaconflictintheeastofthecountrybetween
governmentforcesandpro-Russianseparatistsandadeteriorationinrelationswith
Russia,whichannexedtheCrimearegionin2014.
Thehealthministry'sreformswerefinalisedinAprilandbroughttoparliamentforapproval
inJulybutdiscussionshavedraggedon,Kvitashvilisaid.Ashedidso,heturnedoffhis
cellphone,itsringtonesettothethemetunefromTVseriesGameofThrones,inwhich
rivalclansbattleforinfluence.
Partoftheplanfocusesonseparatingtheprocurementanddeliveryofhealthservices,a
systemwhichuntilnowhasallowedmostcontractstobebrokeredinbackroomdealswith
littleexternaloversight.
AccordingtoareportbytheAnticorruptionActionCenter,aUkrainiancivilsociety
organization,onlysixoutof6,500authorizedpharmaceuticalcompaniestookpartinthe
procurementofHIVdrugsinUkrainein2013,sharingamongthemselvesamarketworth
$30.9million.
Thesalariesofdoctorsaretoolowtoeradicatetheuseofbribesbetweenpatientand
practitioner,whichmeansmanyofthehealthindustry'sfinancialdealingsaredoneinthe
shadows.
"YoucanseeheaddoctorsdrivingPorschesandhavingVertuphones,butthehospitalsare
inanabysmalcondition,"Kvitashvilisaid.
The"informal"partofthehealthcareeconomyamountstoabout$7billionperyear-more
thantriplethesizeofthestate'sannualexpenditureonhealth,heestimated.
FrustrationoverthelackofprogresspromptedKvitashvilitotenderhisresignationinthe
summer,onlytohaveitrejectedbyparliament.
Somecommentatorshavesaidhelackstheknow-howtonavigatethewebofallegiances
thatcontinuestobindUkraine'srulingclassdespiteavowedattemptstomoveonfromthe
politicalcronyismofthepast.
"Ibelievehewantsreforms,buthedoesn'ttotallyunderstandtherealityofUkraine-thatif
someonepromisestheirsupportitdoesn'tmeantheywon'ttryandtripyouup,"doctorand
healthcarecommentatorEvgenyKomarovskysaid
AlexandraUstinova,fromtheAnticorruptionActionCenter,alsosaidtherewasaconflictof
interestsinsomeoftheappointmentsattheministry,suchasbringinginalawyerwho
usedtoworkforapharmaceuticalcompanyownedbyamemberofparliamentfrom
PresidentPetroPoroshenko'sparty.
"CATASTROPHE"
GiovannaBarberis,theUkrainerepresentativeoftheUnitedNationsInternationalChildren's
EmergencyFund(UNICEF),said"theobstacles(toreforms)arehugeandsometimesit
looksprettygrimbecausethepaceisextremelyslow."
ThestartofanimmunizationcampaignfollowinganoutbreakofpolioonSept.1was
delayedbyseveralweeks,promptingEllynOgden,worldwidepoliocoordinatorforthe
UnitedStatesAgencyforInternationalDevelopment(USAID),tocriticizethe"highestlevels
ofgovernment"foraninadequateresponse.
Shesaid"noothercountryintheworldisinsuchadiresituationorshowssuchdisregard
forprotectingchildrenagainstchildhooddiseases."
TheGlobalPolioEradicationInitiative,whichisspearheadedbytheWorldHealth
Organization,said:"Forsometime,Ukrainehasbeenacatastrophewaitingtohappen."
Ukrainedidnotbuydrugs,medicinesorvaccinesformostofthisyearasthehealth
ministrysoughttoapproveatemporaryprocurementsystemviainternationalorganizations
tobypassthecompromisedsystemthatKvitashvilihopestoreform.
ThetemporarysystemwasfinalisedinlateOctober,andUkraineplanstobuyaround$100
millionofvaccinesandmedicines,butsevereshortagesremain.
"Therearenoanti-diphtheriavaccinesinthecountry,"healthcarecommentator
Komarovskysaid.
MeanwhilethemoredrasticreformbillislanguishinginparliamentandKvitashvilisayshis
resignationisstillonthetable.
"Wellmyletterisstillthere.Ididnotwithdrawit.WewillseehowtheParliamentwillact,"
hesaidbyemail.
[returntoContents]
Forwardemail
Thisemailwassenttodonald.jensen8@gmail.combydavidjohnson@starpower.net|
RapidremovalwithSafeUnsubscribe|Aboutourserviceprovider.
Johnson'sRussiaList|6368CircleDrive|Chincoteague|VA|23336
Senttime: 12/22/201509:27:59AM
To: RobertNurick<nurickrc@yahoo.com>
Subject: FrumonTrump(someinterestingstuffinhere)
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/01/the-great-republican-revolt/419118/
TheGreatRepublicanRevolt
TheangriestandmostpessimisticpeopleinAmericaarentthehipsterprotesterswhoflittedinandoutofOccupyWall
Street.Theyarentthehashtavistsof#BlackLivesMatter.TheyarenttheremnantsoftheAmericanlabormovementorthe
savvyyoungdreamerswhoconfrontpoliticianswiththeirAmericanaccentsandun-Americanlegalstatus.
TheangriestandmostpessimisticpeopleinAmericaarethepeopleweusedtocallMiddleAmericans.Middle-classand
middle-agednotrichandnotpoorpeoplewhoareirkedwhenaskedtopress1forEnglish,andwhowonderhowwhite
malebecameanaccusationratherthanadescription.
Youcanmeasuretheirpessimisminpollsthataskabouttheirexpectationsfortheirlivesandforthoseoftheirchildren.
Onbothcounts,whiteswithoutacollegedegreeexpressthebleakestview.Youcanseetheeffectsoftheirdespairinthe
newstatisticsdescribinghorrifyingratesofsuicideandsubstance-abusefatalityamongthissamegroup,inmiddleage.
WhiteMiddleAmericansexpressheavymistrustofeveryinstitutioninAmericansociety:notonlygovernment,but
corporations,unions,eventhepoliticalpartytheytypicallyvotefortheRepublicanPartyofRomney,Ryan,and
McConnell,whichtheydespiseasasadcrewofweaklingsandsellouts.Theyarepissedoff.AndwhenDonaldTrump
camealong,theywerethepeoplewhotoldthepollsters,Thatsmyguy.
Theyarentnecessarilysuperconservative.Theyoftendontthinkinideologicaltermsatall.Buttheydostronglyfeelthat
lifeinthiscountryusedtobebetterforpeoplelikethemandtheywantthatoldercountryback.
Youhearfrompeopleliketheminmanyotherdemocraticcountriestoo.AcrossEurope,populistpartiesaredeliveringa
messagethatcombinesdefenseofthewelfarestatewithskepticismaboutimmigrationthatdenouncesthecorruptionof
parliamentarydemocracyandalsotherisksofglobalcapitalism.Someofthesepartieshavealeftishflavor,likeItalysFive
StarMovement.Somearerootedtotherightofcenter,liketheU.K.IndependenceParty.Somedescendfromneofascists,
likeFrancesNationalFront.OtherstracetheirDNAtoCommunistparties,likeSlovakiasgoverningDirectionSocial
Democracy.
ThesepopulistsseektodefendwhattheFrenchcallacquiredrightshealthcare,pensions,andotherprogramsthat
benefitolderpeopleagainstbankersandtechnocratswhoendlesslydemandausterityagainstmigrantswhomakenew
claimsandchallengeaccustomedwaysagainstaglobalizedmarketthatdepresseswagesandbenefits.IntheUnitedStates,
theyleanRepublicanbecausetheyfeartheDemocratswanttotakefromthemandredistributetoAmericanswhoare
newer,poorer,andintheirviewlessdeservingtospreadthewealtharound,incandidateBarackObamaswordstoJoe
thePlumberbackin2008.Yettheyhavecometofearmoreandmorestronglythattheirpartydoesnothavetheirbest
interestsatheart.
AmajorityofRepublicansworrythatcorporationsandthewealthyexerttoomuchpower.Theirpartyleadersworkto
ensurethatthesesamegroupscanexertevenmore.MainstreamRepublicanswerequiteateasewithtaxincreaseson
householdsearningmorethan$250,000intheaftermathoftheGreatRecessionandthesubsequentstimulus.Their
congressionalrepresentativeshadtheoppositepriorities.In2008,manyRepublicanprimaryvotershadagreedwithformer
ArkansasGovernorMikeHuckabee,whowantedtheirnextpresidenttoremindthemoftheguytheyworkwith,notthe
guywholaidthemoff.ButthoseRepublicansdidnotcountformuchoncetheprimariesended,andnormalpolitics
resumedbetweenthemulticulturalDemocratsandaplutocraticGOP.
Thisyear,theyarecountingformore.TheirrebellionagainstthepoweroforganizedmoneyhasupendedAmericanpolitics
inwaysthatmayreverberateforalongtime.Tounderstandwhatmaycomenext,wemustfirstreviewtherecentpast.
BenCarsonatatown-hallmeetingattheUniversityofNewHampshire.Throughoutthisstory,GOP
candidatesareshownonthestumpintheGraniteStatelastsummerandfall,inphotographsshotforThe
AtlanticandNewHampshiremagazine.(MarkOstow/NewHampshiremagazine/TheAtlantic)
Notsolongago,manyobserversworriedthatAmericanshadlostinterestinpolitics.InhisfamousbookBowlingAlone,
publishedin2000,thesocialscientistRobertPutnambemoanedthecollapseinAmericanpoliticalparticipationduringthe
secondhalfofthe20thcentury.PutnamsuggestedthatthistrendwouldcontinueastheWorldWarIIgenerationgaveway
todisengagedGenXers.
ButevenasPutnamsbookwentintopaperback,thatnotionwasfallingbehindthetimes.Inthe1996presidentialelection,
voterturnouthadtumbledtothelowestlevelsincethe1920s,lessthan52percent.TurnoutroseslightlyinNovember2000.
Then,suddenly:overdrive.Inthepresidentialelectionsof2004and2008,voterturnoutspikedtolevelsnotseensince
beforethevotingagewasloweredto18,andin2012itdippedonlyalittle.Voterswereexcitedbyahailstormofdivisive
events:thedot-combust,theBush-versus-Gorerecount,the9/11terroristattacks,theIraqWar,thefinancialcrisis,the
bailoutsandstimulus,andtheAffordableCareAct.
PutnamwasrightthatAmericanswereturningawayfromtraditionalsourcesofinformation.Butthatwasbecausethey
wereturningtonewones:firstcablenewschannelsandpartisanpoliticaldocumentariesthenblogsandnewsaggregators
liketheDrudgeReportandTheHuffingtonPostafterthat,andmostdecisively,socialmedia.
PoliticswasbecomingmorecentraltoAmericansidentitiesinthe21stcenturythaniteverwasinthe20th.Wouldyoube
upsetifyourchildmarriedasupporterofadifferentpartyfromyourown?In1960,only5percentofAmericanssaidyes.
In2010,athirdofDemocratsandhalfofRepublicansdid.Politicalidentityhasbecomesocentralbecauseithascometo
overlapwithsomanyotheraspectsofidentity:race,religion,lifestyle.In1960,Iwouldnthavelearnedmuchaboutyour
politicsifyoutoldmethatyouhunted.Today,thathobbystronglysuggestsRepublicanloyalty.Unmarried?In1960,that
indicatedlittle.Today,itpredictsthatyoureaDemocrat,especiallyifyourealsoawoman.
Meanwhile,thedividinglinethatusedtobethemostcrucialofthemallclasshasincreasinglybecomeadivisionwithin
theparties,notbetweenthem.Since1984,nearlyeveryDemocraticpresidential-primaryracehasendedasacontest
betweenawinetrackcandidatewhoappealedtoprofessionals(GaryHart,MichaelDukakis,PaulTsongas,BillBradley,
andBarackObama)andabeertrackcandidatewhomobilizedtheremainsoftheoldindustrialworkingclass(Walter
Mondale,DickGephardt,BillClinton,AlGore,andHillaryClinton).TheRepublicanshavetheirequivalentinthebattles
betweenWallStreetandMainStreetcandidates.Untilthisdecade,however,bothpartiesandespeciallythehistorically
morecohesiveRepublicansmanagedtokeepsufficientclasspeacetopreservepartyunity.
Notanymore,atleastnotfortheRepublicans.
TheGreatRecessionendedinthesummerof2009.Sincethen,theU.S.economyhasbeengrowing,butmostincomes
havenotgrowncomparably.In2014,realmedianhouseholdincomeremainedalmost$4,000belowthepre-recessionlevel,
andwellbelowthelevelin1999.ThecountryhasrecoveredfromtheworsteconomicdisastersincetheGreatDepression.
Mostofitspeoplehavenot.ManyRepublicanshaventsharedintherecoveryandcontinuedupwardflightoftheirmore
affluentfellowpartisans.
ItwasthesepessimisticRepublicanswhopoweredtheTeaPartymovementof2009and2010.Theywerenot,asarule,
libertarianslookingforanultraminimalgovernment.ThecloseststudywehaveofthebeliefsofTeaPartysupporters,ledby
ThedaSkocpol,aHarvardpoliticalscientist,foundthatTeaPartiersjudgeentitlementprogramsnotintermsofabstract
free-marketorthodoxy,butaccordingtotheperceiveddeservingnessofrecipients.Thedistinctionbetweenworkersand
peoplewhodontworkisfundamentaltoTeaPartyideology.
MarcoRubioatatown-hallmeetingattheWolfeboroInninWolfeboroonOctober7.(MarkOstow/New
Hampshiremagazine/TheAtlantic)
ItsuncertainwhetheranyTeaPartiereverreallycarriedaplacardthatreadkeepyourgovernmenthandsoffmymedicare.
Butifso,thatpersonwasntspoutinggibberish.TheObamaadministrationhadlaidhandsonMedicare.Ithopedtosqueeze
$500billionoutoftheprogramfrom2010to2020tofinancehealthinsurancefortheuninsured.Youdidnthavetolookup
thefigurestohaveasensethatmanyoftheuninsuredwerenoncitizens(20percent),orthatevenmorewereforeign-born
(27percent).IntheTeaPartysangrytown-hallmeetings,thisissueresonatedperhapsmoreloudlythananyotherthe
ultimateexampleofredistributionfromadeservingustoanundeservingthem.
YetevenastheRepublicanMainStreetprotestedObamacare,itrejectedthehardeningideologicalorthodoxyofRepublican
donorsandelectedofficials.AsubstantialminorityofRepublicansalmost30percentsaidtheywouldwelcomeheavy
taxesonthewealthy,accordingtoGallup.WithinthepartythatmadePaulRyansentitlement-slashingbudgetplana
centerpieceofpolicy,only21percentfavoredcutsinMedicareandonly17percentwantedtoseespendingonSocial
Securityreduced,accordingtoPew.LessthanathirdofordinaryRepublicanssupportedapathwaytocitizenshipforillegal
immigrants(againaccordingtoPew)amajority,bycontrast,favoredstepped-updeportation.
Asaclass,bigRepublicandonorscouldnotseeanyofthis,orwouldnot.Soneitherdidthepoliticianswhodependupon
them.Againstallevidence,bothgroupsinterpretedtheTeaPartyasamassmovementinfavoroftheagendaoftheWall
StreetJournaleditorialpage.Oneofthemoredangerouspleasuresofgreatwealthisthatyouneverhavetohearanyonetell
youthatyouarecompletelywrong.
JebBushonhiscampaignbusinRyeonNovember3.(MarkOstow/NewHampshiremagazine/The
Atlantic)
ItwasmittromneywhogotthefirstpostTeaPartypresidentialnomination,andheranonaplatformofConservatism
Classic:taxcuts,budgetcuts,deregulation,freetradealllightlyseasonedwithsomeconcessionstothebaseregarding
stricterimmigrationenforcement.Therankandfiledidnotlikeit.Buttheycouldnotstopit.Thebasekeptelevatingnot
Romneysintofirstplace,andeachrapidlyfailedorfizzledRomney,supportedbyacumulativetotalof$139millionin
primaryfundsbyMarch2012,trundledon.
Romneyultimatelylostthepresidentialelection,ofcourse,tothesurpriseanddismayofapartyeliteconfidentofvictory
untiltheveryend.Onemighthaveexpectedthisshocktoforcearethink.TheRepublicanshadnowlostfouroutofthe
pastsixpresidentialelections.AnotherelectionhadbeenwononlyintheElectoralCollege,despitethelossofthepopular
vote.Eventheirbestshowing,50.7percentofthevotein2004,representedtheclosestescapeofanyincumbentpresident
whowonreelectionsincethefirstrecordedpopularvote.
Andyet,withinhoursofRomneysdefeat,Republicandonors,talkers,andofficialsconvergedonthemaximallyself-
exculpatingexplanation.TheproblemhadnotbeentheplantophaseoutMedicareforpeopleyoungerthan55.Orthelack
ofideasabouthowtoraisewages.Orthecommitmenttoendinghealth-insurancecoverageformillionsofworking-age
Americans.Ortheanthemstowealthcreationandentrepreneurshipinacountryincreasinglyskepticalofboth.No,the
problemwastheoneelementofRomneysmessagetheyhadneverlikedanyway:immigrationenforcement.
Ownersofcapitalassets,employersoflow-skilllaborers,andhighlycompensatedprofessionalstendtobenefit
economicallyfromthearrivalofimmigrants.Theyarebetterpositionedtoenjoytheattractiveculturalandsocialresultsof
migration(more-interestingfood!)andtoprotectthemselvesagainsttheburdensomeimpacts(surgesinnon-English-
proficientpupilsinpublicschools).Apro-immigrationpolicyshiftwasonemoreassertionofclassinterestinaparty
programalreadybrimfulofthem.
NobodyexpressedthepartyelitesconsensusviewmoreassuredlythanCharlesKrauthammer.Ignorethetrimmers,he
wroteinhisfirstpostelectioncolumn.Theresnoneedforradicalchange.Theotherpartythinksitownsthedemographic
futurecounterthatinonestrokebyfixingtheLatinoproblem.Donot,however,abandonthepartysphilosophicalanchor
Noreinventionwhennoneisneeded.
Wevegottagetridoftheimmigrationissuealtogether,SeanHannitytoldhisradioaudiencethedayaftertheelection.
Itssimpleformetofixit.Ithinkyoucontroltheborderfirst,youcreateapathwayforthosepeoplethatarehere,you
dontsay,Yougottagohome.AndthatisapositionthatIveevolvedon.
Aco-ownerofFoxNewsKrauthammerandHannitysTVnetworkagreed:Musthavesweeping,generousimmigration
reform,tweetedRupertMurdochonNovember7,2012.Itwouldbeinhumanetosendthosepeopleback,tosend12
millionpeopleoutofthiscountry,thecasinomogulandRepublicandonorSheldonAdelsontoldTheWallStreetJournalin
Decemberofthatyear.Wevegottofindaway,findaroute,forthosepeopletogetlegalcitizenship.TheRepublican
NationalCommitteemadeitallofficialinaMarch2013postelectionreportsignedbypartyeminences.Thereportgenerally
avoidedpolicyrecommendations,withanotableexception:Wemustembraceandchampioncomprehensiveimmigration
reform.Toadvancethecause,PaulSinger,oneofthemostopen-pocketedGOPdonors,madeasix-figurecontributionto
theNationalImmigrationForumthatspring.
IfallofthissoundslikeaprescriptionforaJebBushcandidacyforpresidentwell,perhapsthatwasnotanentirely
unintendedconsequence.
AlmostassoonasthenewCongressconvenedin2013,SenateRepublicansworkedtostrikeadealoverimmigration
issues.AbipartisanGangofEight,includingFloridasambitiousyoungMarcoRubio,agreedonaplanthatwouldcreatea
pathtocitizenshipformillionsofillegalimmigrantsandsubstantiallyincreaselegal-immigrationlimitsforbothhigh-and
low-skilledworkers.Otherwise,thepartyyieldedonnothinganddoubleddownoneverything.NoU-turns.No
compromises.
TedCruzataPracticalFederalismforumatSouthernNewHampshireUniversity,inHooksett,onOctober3.
(MarkOstow/NewHampshiremagazine/TheAtlantic)
Thenewstrategysoonprovedatotalandutterfailure.GeorgeW.Bushstaxcutsforhighearnersexpiredin2013,and
Republicanscouldnotrenewthem.Thedrivetocutthedeficitendedinbudgetsequestration,whoseharshesteffectfellon
themilitary.TheGangofEightdealnevercametoavoteintheHouse.Allthewhile,Republicansapprovalratingsslipped
andslid.InsteadofholdingontotheirbaseandaddingHispanics,Republicansalienatedtheirbaseinreturnfornogainsat
all.Bymid-2015,amajorityofself-identifiedRepublicansdisapprovedoftheirpartyscongressionalleadershipanintensity
ofdisapprovalneverseenbytheRepublicanmajorityofthe1990snorbyDemocratsduringtheirtimeinthemajorityafter
the2006midtermelections.
Infact,disapprovalhadflaredintoanoutrightrevoltoftheRepublicanbaseinthesummerof2014.HouseMajorityLeader
EricCantor,theNo.2manintheRepublicancaucus,hademergedasaleaderofthenewlineonimmigration.Upfor
reelectioninVirginiasSeventhDistrict,CantorwaschallengedthatyearbyaconservativeChristianprofessorof
economics,DaveBrat.DuringObamasfirstterm,TeaPartyinsurgentshadtoppledincumbentsanddefeatedparty
favoritesinprimariesfromDelawaretoNevada.Thosechallengeshadendedbadlyinthegeneralelection,forthemostpart:
TeaPartyRepublicanslostatleastfiveSenateseatsthatmightplausiblyhavebeenwon.Partyleadersbelievedthelesson
hadbeenlearnedandexpectedtheirvoterstobemoretractableinfutureelections.
CantorslosstoBratjoltedHouseleaders.Immigrationreformslippedofftheiragenda.MarcoRubiorepudiatedhisown
deal.ButRepublicanelitesoutsideCongressdidnotgetthemessage.TheyrationalizedCantorsdefeatasafreakevent,the
sadconsequenceofanationallymindedpoliticiansneglectofhisdistrict.TheycontinuedtofillthecoffersofJebBush
and,toalesserextent,RubioandScottWalker,allreliablepurveyorsofConservatismClassic.LastFebruary,threeofthe
partysmostimportantmoneymenthefast-foodexecutiveAndrewPuzder,thehealth-careinvestorMikeFernandez,and
thenationalfinancechairofMittRomneys2012campaign,SpencerZwickpubliclyurgedtheGOPtopushaheadtoward
more-openimmigration.Americashouldbeadestinationforhardworkingimmigrantsfromallovertheworld,said
Puzder,anadvocateofimportingmorelow-skilledlaborerstomeettheneedsofhishigh-turnoverindustry.Zwicksaidthat
anypresidentialcandidatewhowantedtobetakenseriouslyhadbetterbeinasimilarplacetoJebBushonthe
immigrationissue.
MaybeitwasnotagoodideaforJebBushsalliestodescribehisfund-raisingstrategyasshockandawe.Perhapsthe
IraqWarreferencestirredpainfulmemories,evenamongRepublicans.Still,Bushsfund-raisinggenuinelyinspiredawe.In
hisfinancialdisclosureforthesecondquarterof2015,Bushreportedraising$11.4millionforhisformalcampaignand
another$103millionforhissuperPAC.Thesefundswereprovidedbyarelativelysmallnumberofverywealthypeople.Of
Bushspresidential-campaigndollars,only3percentarrivedinamountsof$200orless.Almost82percentarrivedinthe
maximumincrementof$2,700.Nearly80percentofBushssuper-PACtakearrivedinincrementsof$25,000ormore
aboutaquarterofthehaulwasmadeupofdonationsof$1millionormore.
Yetseldominthehistoryoffund-raisinghassomuchboughtsolittle,sofleetingly.BetweenDecember2014andSeptember
2015,JebBushplungedfromfirstplaceintheRepublicanfieldtofifth.BetweenlateSeptemberandmid-October,he
purchased60percentofallpoliticalspotsairedinNewHampshire.Thatadbarragepushedhispollnumbersinthestate
fromabout9percenttoabout8percent.
ChrisChristieatthe2015NewHampshireEducationSummitinLondonerryonAugust19.(MarkOstow/
NewHampshiremagazine/TheAtlantic)
AsthegovernorofFlorida,Bushhadcuttaxesandbalancedbudgets.Hedchallengedunionsandchampionedcharter
schools.Atthesametime,Bushpassionatelysupportedimmigrationliberalization.Thecentraleventinhislifehistorywas
hisreinventionasanhonoraryLatinoAmericanwhenhemarriedaMexicanwoman,ColumbaGarnicadeGallo.Hespoke
Spanishathome.HeconvertedtoCatholicism.HesoughthisfortunewithaCubanAmericanbusinesspartner.Inhismost
quotablephrase,hedescribedillegalimmigrationasanactoflove.
BushsupdateofConservatismClassichadmadehimahitwiththepartysbigdonors.HehadwonaccoladesfromKarl
Rove(thedeepestthinkeronourside)andArthurBrooks,thepresidentoftheAmericanEnterpriseInstitute(atop-
drawerintellect).YetwithinfiveweeksofhisformaldeclarationofcandidacyonJune15,Bushscampaignhadbeen
brutallyrejectedbytheGOPrankandfile.
FromJupiterIsland,Florida,toGreenwich,ConnecticutfromDallassHighlandParktoSeaIsland,GeorgiafromFifth
AvenueinManhattantoCaliforniasNewportBeach,thebaffledquestionresounded:Whatwentwrong?
Big-dollarRepublicanfavoriteshaverunintotroublebefore,ofcourse.RudyGiulianiimplodedin200708MittRomneys
2012nominationwasknockedoffcourseasRepublicansworkedtheirwaythroughaseriesofalternativefront-runners:
RickPerry,HermanCain,NewtGingrich,andfinallyRickSantorum.ButGiulianilostgroundtotworivalsequally
acceptabletothedonorelite,ornearlyso:MittRomneyandJohnMcCain.In201112,thelongestanyofthenot
Romneysremainedinfirstplacewassixweeks.Inbothcycles,resistancetothepartyfavoritewasconcentratedamong
socialandreligiousconservatives.
Themutinyofthe2016electioncyclehasbeendifferent.Bythefallof2015,amajorityofRepublicansfavoredcandidates
whohadneverbeenelectedtoanything:DonaldTrump,BenCarson,andCarlyFiorina.Fiorinascampaignwasperhapsnot
sounusual.AformerCEO,sheappealedtothesamebusiness-mindedRepublicanswhomighthavevotedforRomneyin
2012.CarsonappealedtothesamereligiousconservativesthatcandidateslikeMikeHuckabeeandSantorumhadappealed
toinpriorpresidentialcycles.WhatwasnewandastonishingwastheTrumpboom.Hejettisonedpartyorthodoxyonissues
rangingfromentitlementspendingtoforeignpolicy.Hescoffedattradeagreements.HesaidrudethingsaboutSheldon
AdelsonandtheKochbrothers.Hereviledthecampaigncontributionsofbigdonorshimselfincluded!asopenand
blatantfavor-buying.TrumpssurgewasadecisiverepudiationbymillionsofRepublicanvotersofthecollectivewisdomof
theirpartyelite.
WhenTrumpfirsteruptedintotheRepublicanraceinJune,hedidsowithamessageofgrimpessimism.Wegot$18
trillionindebt.WegotnothingbutproblemsWeredying.Weredying.WeneedmoneyWehavelosers.Wehave
peoplethatdonthaveit.Wehavepeoplethataremorallycorrupt.Wehavepeoplethataresellingthiscountrydownthe
drainTheAmericandreamisdead.
ThatmessagedidnotresonatewiththosewhodriddentheS&P500fromlessthan900in2009tomorethan2,000in
2015.Butitfoundanaudienceallthesame.HalfofTrumpssupporterswithintheGOPhadstoppedtheireducationator
beforehigh-schoolgraduation,accordingtothepollingfirmYouGov.Only19percenthadacollegeorpostcollegedegree.
Thirty-eightpercentearnedlessthan$50,000.Only11percentearnedmorethan$100,000.
TrumpRepublicanswerenotideologicallymilitant.Just13percentsaidtheywereveryconservative19percentdescribed
themselvesasmoderate.NorweretheyhighlyreligiousbyRepublicanstandards.
Left:CarlyFiorinaonafactorytouratRapidSheetMetalinNashuaonOctober5.Right:MikeHuckabeeat
formerMassachusettsSenatorScottBrownsBackyardNoBSBBQinRyeonOctober16.(MarkOstow/
NewHampshiremagazine/TheAtlantic)
WhatsetthemapartfromotherRepublicanswastheireconomicinsecurityandtheintensityoftheireconomicnationalism.
Sixty-threepercentofTrumpsupporterswishedtoendbirthrightcitizenshipforthechildrenofillegalimmigrantsbornon
U.S.soiladozenpointshigherthanthenormforallRepublicans.MorethanotherRepublicans,Trumpsupporters
distrustedBarackObamaasalienanddangerous:Only21percentacknowledgedthatthepresidentwasbornintheUnited
States,accordingtoanAugustsurveybytheDemocratic-orientedpollingfirmPPP.Sixty-sixpercentbelievedthepresident
wasaMuslim.
Trumppromisedtoprotectthesevoterspensionsfromtheirownpartysausterity.WevegotSocialSecuritythatsgoing
tobedestroyedifsomebodylikemedoesntbringmoneyintothecountry.Alltheseotherpeoplewanttocutthehelloutof
it.ImnotgoingtocutitatallImgoingtobringmoneyin,andweregoingtosaveit.
HepromisedtoprotecttheirchildrenfrombeingdrawnintoanotherwarintheMiddleEast,thistimeinSyria.Ifwere
goingtohaveWorldWarIII,hetoldTheWashingtonPostinOctober,itsnotgoingtobeoverSyria.Asforthe
politiciansthreateningtoshootdowntheRussianjetsflyingmissionsinSyria,Iwontevencallthemhawks.Icallthem
thefools.
HepromisedacampaignindependentoftheinfluencesofmoneythathadswayedsomanyRepublicanracesofthepast.I
willtellyouthatoursystemisbroken.Igavetomanypeople.Beforethis,beforetwomonthsago,Iwasabusinessman.I
givetoeverybody.Whentheycall,Igive.Andyouknowwhat?WhenIneedsomethingfromthem,twoyearslater,three
yearslater,Icallthem.Theyarethereforme.Andthatsabrokensystem.
HepromisedabovealltoprotecttheirwagesfrombeingundercutbyRepublicanimmigrationpolicy.
Left:RandPaulatameetandgreetatMaryAnnsDinerinWindhamonJuly26.Right:JohnKasichata
town-hallmeetingintheVeteransofForeignWarsbuildinginDerryonAugust12.(MarkOstow/New
Itcannotlast,canit?Thecasinodoesnotalwayswin,StuartStevens,MittRomneysleadstrategistduringthe2012
campaign,quippedtomeinSeptember.Butthatsthewaytobet.Thecasinowonin2012,andwillverylikelywinagain
in2016.
Andyetalready,Trumphasdestroyedoneelite-favoredpresidentialcandidacy,ScottWalkers,andcrippledtwoothers,Jeb
BushsandChrisChristies.Hehasthrownintodisarraythepartyspost-2012comebackstrategy,andpulledintothecenter
ofnationaldiscussionissuesandconstituencieslongrelegatedtothemargins.
SomethinghaschangedinAmericanpoliticssincetheGreatRecession.Theoldslogansringhollow.Theinsurgent
candidatesarelessabsurd,theorthodoxcandidatesmorevulnerable.TheGOPdonoreliteplannedadynasticrestorationin
2016.Instead,ittriggeredaninternalclasswar.
Thecontestforthepresidencyturnsonexternaleventsasmuchasormorethaninternalpartypolitics.GeorgeW.
Bushsteambelievedthatthelast-minuterevelationofa1976drunk-drivingarrestcosthimthepopularvoteinthe2000
election.JimmyCarterblamedhis1980defeatonthedebacleoftheattemptedrescueofAmericanhostagesinIran.So
anythingcanhappen.Butthatdoesnotmeananythingwillhappen.Barringshocks,presidentialelectionsturnonthe
fundamentalsofeconomics,demography,andideology.
ThepuzzleforthemoniedleadersoftheRepublicanPartyis:Whatnow?Andwhatnextafterthat?Noneoftheoptions
facingtheGOPeliteisentirelycongenial.Butthereappeartobefourpathstheelitecouldfollow,forthiscampaignseason
andbeyond.Theyleadthepartyinverydifferentdirections.
Option1:DoubleDown
ThepremiseofthepastfewthousandwordsisthattheRepublicandonorelitefailedtoimposeitspreferredcandidateonan
unwillingbasein2015forbigandimportantreasons.Butmaybethatpremiseiswrong.MaybeJebBushhasjustbeenabad
candidatewitharadioactivelastname.Maybethesamemessageandplatformwouldhaveworkedfineifespousedbya
fresherandliveliercandidate.SuchisthetheoryofMarcoRubioscampaign.Orevenifthedonormessageandplatform
havetroublesmaybe$100millioninnegativeadscanscorchanypotentialalternative,enablingthedonor-backedcandidate
towinbydefault.
AndifnotRubio,maybethecoredonormessagecouldstillworkifjoinedtoatrueoutsidercandidacy:BenCarsons,for
example.Carsonisoftenregardedasaprotestcandidate,butasTheWeeklyStandardsFredBarnesenthusedbackin
January2015:OnethingnotindoubtisCarsonsconservatism.Hestherealdeal,aneconomic,social,andforeignpolicy
conservative.Carsonmaysaywackythings,buthedoesnotsayheterodoxthings.
YeteveniftheRepublicandonorelitecankeepcontrolofthepartywhiledoublingdown,itsdoubtfulthatthetacticcan
ultimatelywinpresidentialelections.Thechangenothingbutimmigrationadvicewasaself-flatteringfantasyfromthe
start.ImmigrationisnotthemainreasonRepublicanpresidentialcandidateslosesobadlyamongLatinoandAsianAmerican
voters,andneverwas:Latinovotersaremorelikelytolisteducationandhealthcareasissuesthatareextremelyimportant
tothem.AmajorityofAsianAmericansarenon-Christianandsusceptibletoexclusionbysectarianreligiousthemes.
So
Option2:TacticalConcession
Perhapssomeconcessiontothedisgruntledbaseisneeded.ThatsthetheoryoftheCruzcampaignandafteracourse
correctionalsooftheChristiecampaign.Insteadof2013sConservatismClassicPlusImmigrationLiberalization,Cruz
andChristieareurgingConservatismClassicPlusImmigrationEnforcement.True,Cruzscarefullyselectedwordson
immigrationleaveopenthepossibilityofguest-workerprogramsorotherpro-employerreformsafteraburstofborder
enforcement.ButCruzandChristiehaveseenthereactiontoDonaldTrumpsmessage,andappeartoappreciatetheneedto
atleastseemtodosomethingtoredressthegrievancesoftheRepublicanbase.
MuchofthedonorelitecouldlikelybeconvincedthatwhileJebBushsideaofimmigrationreformwouldbegoodtohave,
itisntamust-have.Justasthepartyelitereachedapactonabortionwithsocialconservativesinthe1980s,itcould
concedetheimmigrationissuetoitsMainStreetbaseinthe2010s.
YetanarrowfocusonimmigrationpopulismaloneseemsinsufficienttoraiseRepublicanhopes.Trumpshrewdlyjoinshis
immigrationpopulismtotradepopulism.OntheDemocraticside,BernieSanderssoppositiontoopenbordersislogically
connectedtohishopesforaDemocraticSocialistfuture:HisadmiredDenmarkupholdshighlaborstandardsalongwith
someoftheworldstoughestimmigrationrules.Severedfromalargeragenda,howeverasMittRomneytriedtoseverthe
issuein2012immigrationpopulismlooksatbestlikepandering,andatworstlikeidentitypoliticsforwhitevoters.Ina
societythatisandalwayshasbeenmultiethnicandpolyglot,anynationalpartymustcompetemorebroadlythanthat.
Whichbringsusto
Option3:TrueReform
Admittedly,thismaybethemostuncongenialthoughtofthemall,butpartyelitescouldtrytoopenmoreideologicalspace
fortheeconomicinterestsofthemiddleclass.Makepeacewithuniversalhealth-insurancecoverage:MendObamacare
ratherthanendit.Cuttaxeslessatthetop,andusethemoneytodelivermorebenefitstoworkingfamiliesinthemiddle.
Deviseimmigrationpolicytosupportwages,notundercutthem.Worrymoreaboutregulationsthatartificiallytransfer
wealthupward,andlessaboutregulationsthatconstrainfinancialspeculation.Takeseriouslyissuessuchasthelengthof
commutes,nursing-homecosts,andtheanticompetitivepracticesthatinflatecollegetuition.RememberthatRepublican
voterscaremoreaboutaligninggovernmentwiththeirvaluesofworkandfamilythantheycareaboutcuttingthesizeof
governmentasanendinitself.Recognizethatthegimmickofmobilizingthebasewithculture-waroutragesstopped
workingatleastadecadeago.
Left:RickSantorumatMurphysDinerinManchesteronJuly25.Center:LindseyGrahamattheMilford
LaborDayparadeonSeptember7.Right:GeorgePatakiattheGraniteStateBrewersAssociationSummerfest
atArmsPark,inManchester,onJuly25.(MarkOstow/NewHampshiremagazine/TheAtlantic)
Suchapartywouldcuthealth-carecostsbysqueezingproviders,notyoungbeneficiaries.Itwouldboostproductivityby
investinginhardinfrastructurebridges,airports,water-treatmentplants.ItwouldrestoreDwightEisenhowertothe
RepublicanpantheonalongsideRonaldReaganandemphasizethecenterincenter-right.
Toimaginethechangeistoseehowconvulsiveitwouldbeandhowunlikely.True,center-rightconservativeparties
backedbybroadmultiethniccoalitionsofthemiddleclasshavegainedandexercisedpowerinotherEnglish-speaking
countries,evenasRepublicanslostthepresidencyin2008and2012.Butthemost-influentialvoicesinAmerican
conservatismrejecttheexperienceoftheirforeigncounterpartsasweak,unprincipled,andunnecessary.Inparliamentary
democracy,winningorlosingisstarklybinary:Apartyeitherisinpoweroristheopposition.IntheAmericansystem,that
binaryismuchblurrier.Republicanscan,ofcourse,exertsomecontrolovergovernmentaslongastheyholdanyoneof
theHouse,Senate,orpresidency.
Whichbringsusfinallyto
Option4:ChangetheRulesoftheGame
Thefilibusterusedtobebad.Nowitsgood.SoFredThompson,thelateactorandformerRepublicansenator,jokingly
toldanaudienceonaNationalReviewcruiseshortlyafterBarackObamawonthepresidencyforthefirsttime.How
partisansfeelaboutprocessissuesisnotoriouslyrelatedtowhatprocesswouldbenefitthematanygivenmoment.Liberals
lovedtheinterventionistSupremeCourtinthe1960sand70s,hateditinthe1990sand2000sandmayrotatetheir
opinionagainifaPresidentHillaryClintoncantiltamajorityoftheSupremeCourttheirway.Itsanoldstorythatmayfind
anewtwistifandwhenRepublicansacknowledgethatthepresidencymaybeattainableonlyaftertheymakepolicy
changesthatareunacceptabletothepartyelite.
Therearemetrics,afterall,bywhichthepost-2009GOPappearstobeasupremelysuccessfulpoliticalparty.Recently,
RoryCooper,ofthecommunicationsfirmPurpleStrategies,talliedanetgaintotheRepublicansof69seatsintheHouseof
Representatives,13seatsintheSenate,900-plusseatsinstatelegislatures,and12governorshipssinceObamatookoffice.
Withthatkindofgriponstategovernment,inparticular,Republicansarewellpositionedtowriteelectionandvotingrules
thatsustaintheirholdonthenationallegislature.Thepresidentmaybeabletograntformerlyillegalimmigrantstherightto
work,buthecannotgrantthemtherighttovote.Inthislight,insteadofrevisingRepublicanpoliciestostopfutureBarack
ObamasandHillaryClintons,maybeitsnecessarytoreviseonlythepartyrulestostopfutureDonaldTrumpsfrom
confrontingpartyeliteswiththeirownunpopularity.
TheinauguralissueofTheWeeklyStandard,theconservativemagazinelaunchedin1995,depictedthenSpeakerofthe
HouseNewtGingrichswingingintoaction,asubmachinegunblazinginhislefthand,undertheheadlinePermanent
Offense.Butthatwasthen.Maybethemorenaturalconditionofconservativepartiesispermanentdefenseandwhere
bettertowagealong,grindingdefensivecampaignthaninCongressandthestatehouses?Maybethepresidencyitself
shouldberegardedasoneofthosethingsthatisgoodtohavebutnotamust-have,especiallyifobtainingitrequires
uncomfortablechange.
Whathappenstoanelitewhosefollowerswithdrawtheirassent?Doesitself-examine?Ordoesittakerefugeindenial?
Doesitchange?Ordoesittrytopreventchange?Doesitchallengeitselftobuildanewpoliticalmajority?Ordoesitseize
theopportunitiestheAmericanpoliticalsystemofferstocompactandpurposefulminorities?Whenitsoldanswersfail,will
itthinkanew?Orwillitsimplyrepeatlouderthedogmasthatenthralledsupportersinthepast?Americanslovethecrushof
competition,thehard-foughtstruggle,thelong-sloggingrace.ButmuchmorethanthepunditsWhowillwin?,itisthese
deeperquestionsfromtheelectionof2016thatwillshapethefutureofAmericanpolitics.
From: RobertNurick<nurickrc@yahoo.com>
Senttime: 12/22/201501:04:38PM
Subject: Re:FrumonTrump(someinterestingstuffinhere)
Bob:thisisaveryinterestingpiece--andarathersoberingone.Thanks.
Bestwishestoyouandyoursfortheholidays.Let'sgettogethersoonaftertheNewYear.
Bob
From:RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
To:RobertNurick<nurickrc@yahoo.com>
Sent:Tuesday,December22,201512:27PM
Subject:FrumonTrump(someinterestingstuffinhere)
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/01/the-great-republican-revolt/419118/
TheGreatRepublicanRevolt
TheangriestandmostpessimisticpeopleinAmericaarentthehipsterprotesterswhoflittedinandoutof
OccupyWallStreet.Theyarentthehashtavistsof#BlackLivesMatter.TheyarenttheremnantsoftheAmerican
labormovementorthesavvyyoungdreamerswhoconfrontpoliticianswiththeirAmericanaccentsandun-
Americanlegalstatus.
TheangriestandmostpessimisticpeopleinAmericaarethepeopleweusedtocallMiddleAmericans.Middle-
classandmiddle-agednotrichandnotpoorpeoplewhoareirkedwhenaskedtopress1forEnglish,andwho
wonderhowwhitemalebecameanaccusationratherthanadescription.
Youcanmeasuretheirpessimisminpollsthataskabouttheirexpectationsfortheirlivesandforthoseoftheir
children.Onbothcounts,whiteswithoutacollegedegreeexpressthebleakestview.Youcanseetheeffectsof
theirdespairinthenewstatisticsdescribinghorrifyingratesofsuicideandsubstance-abusefatalityamongthis
samegroup,inmiddleage.
WhiteMiddleAmericansexpressheavymistrustofeveryinstitutioninAmericansociety:notonlygovernment,
butcorporations,unions,eventhepoliticalpartytheytypicallyvotefortheRepublicanPartyofRomney,Ryan,
andMcConnell,whichtheydespiseasasadcrewofweaklingsandsellouts.Theyarepissedoff.Andwhen
DonaldTrumpcamealong,theywerethepeoplewhotoldthepollsters,Thatsmyguy.
Theyarentnecessarilysuperconservative.Theyoftendontthinkinideologicaltermsatall.Buttheydo
stronglyfeelthatlifeinthiscountryusedtobebetterforpeoplelikethemandtheywantthatoldercountry
back.
Youhearfrompeopleliketheminmanyotherdemocraticcountriestoo.AcrossEurope,populistpartiesare
deliveringamessagethatcombinesdefenseofthewelfarestatewithskepticismaboutimmigrationthat
denouncesthecorruptionofparliamentarydemocracyandalsotherisksofglobalcapitalism.Someofthese
partieshavealeftishflavor,likeItalysFiveStarMovement.Somearerootedtotherightofcenter,liketheU.K.
IndependenceParty.Somedescendfromneofascists,likeFrancesNationalFront.OtherstracetheirDNAto
Communistparties,likeSlovakiasgoverningDirectionSocialDemocracy.
ThesepopulistsseektodefendwhattheFrenchcallacquiredrightshealthcare,pensions,andother
programsthatbenefitolderpeopleagainstbankersandtechnocratswhoendlesslydemandausterityagainst
migrantswhomakenewclaimsandchallengeaccustomedwaysagainstaglobalizedmarketthatdepresses
wagesandbenefits.IntheUnitedStates,theyleanRepublicanbecausetheyfeartheDemocratswanttotake
fromthemandredistributetoAmericanswhoarenewer,poorer,andintheirviewlessdeservingtospreadthe
wealtharound,incandidateBarackObamaswordstoJoethePlumberbackin2008.Yettheyhavecometo
fearmoreandmorestronglythattheirpartydoesnothavetheirbestinterestsatheart.
AmajorityofRepublicansworrythatcorporationsandthewealthyexerttoomuchpower.Theirpartyleaders
worktoensurethatthesesamegroupscanexertevenmore.MainstreamRepublicanswerequiteateasewith
taxincreasesonhouseholdsearningmorethan$250,000intheaftermathoftheGreatRecessionandthe
subsequentstimulus.Theircongressionalrepresentativeshadtheoppositepriorities.In2008,manyRepublican
primaryvotershadagreedwithformerArkansasGovernorMikeHuckabee,whowantedtheirnextpresidentto
remindthemoftheguytheyworkwith,nottheguywholaidthemoff.ButthoseRepublicansdidnotcountfor
muchoncetheprimariesended,andnormalpoliticsresumedbetweenthemulticulturalDemocratsanda
plutocraticGOP.
Thisyear,theyarecountingformore.Theirrebellionagainstthepoweroforganizedmoneyhasupended
Americanpoliticsinwaysthatmayreverberateforalongtime.Tounderstandwhatmaycomenext,wemustfirst
reviewtherecentpast.
BenCarsonatatown-hallmeetingattheUniversityofNewHampshire.Throughoutthisstory,GOPcandidates
areshownonthestumpintheGraniteStatelastsummerandfall,inphotographsshotforTheAtlanticandNew
Hampshiremagazine.(MarkOstow/NewHampshiremagazine/TheAtlantic)
Notsolongago,manyobserversworriedthatAmericanshadlostinterestinpolitics.InhisfamousbookBowling
Alone,publishedin2000,thesocialscientistRobertPutnambemoanedthecollapseinAmericanpolitical
participationduringthesecondhalfofthe20thcentury.Putnamsuggestedthatthistrendwouldcontinueasthe
WorldWarIIgenerationgavewaytodisengagedGenXers.
ButevenasPutnamsbookwentintopaperback,thatnotionwasfallingbehindthetimes.Inthe1996
presidentialelection,voterturnouthadtumbledtothelowestlevelsincethe1920s,lessthan52percent.
TurnoutroseslightlyinNovember2000.Then,suddenly:overdrive.Inthepresidentialelectionsof2004and
2008,voterturnoutspikedtolevelsnotseensincebeforethevotingagewasloweredto18,andin2012it
dippedonlyalittle.Voterswereexcitedbyahailstormofdivisiveevents:thedot-combust,theBush-versus-
Gorerecount,the9/11terroristattacks,theIraqWar,thefinancialcrisis,thebailoutsandstimulus,andthe
AffordableCareAct.
PutnamwasrightthatAmericanswereturningawayfromtraditionalsourcesofinformation.Butthatwas
becausetheywereturningtonewones:firstcablenewschannelsandpartisanpoliticaldocumentariesthen
blogsandnewsaggregatorsliketheDrudgeReportandTheHuffingtonPostafterthat,andmostdecisively,
socialmedia.
PoliticswasbecomingmorecentraltoAmericansidentitiesinthe21stcenturythaniteverwasinthe20th.
Wouldyoubeupsetifyourchildmarriedasupporterofadifferentpartyfromyourown?In1960,only5percent
ofAmericanssaidyes.In2010,athirdofDemocratsandhalfofRepublicansdid.Politicalidentityhasbecome
socentralbecauseithascometooverlapwithsomanyotheraspectsofidentity:race,religion,lifestyle.In
1960,Iwouldnthavelearnedmuchaboutyourpoliticsifyoutoldmethatyouhunted.Today,thathobby
stronglysuggestsRepublicanloyalty.Unmarried?In1960,thatindicatedlittle.Today,itpredictsthatyourea
Democrat,especiallyifyourealsoawoman.
Meanwhile,thedividinglinethatusedtobethemostcrucialofthemallclasshasincreasinglybecomea
divisionwithintheparties,notbetweenthem.Since1984,nearlyeveryDemocraticpresidential-primaryrace
hasendedasacontestbetweenawinetrackcandidatewhoappealedtoprofessionals(GaryHart,Michael
Dukakis,PaulTsongas,BillBradley,andBarackObama)andabeertrackcandidatewhomobilizedthe
remainsoftheoldindustrialworkingclass(WalterMondale,DickGephardt,BillClinton,AlGore,andHillary
Clinton).TheRepublicanshavetheirequivalentinthebattlesbetweenWallStreetandMainStreet
candidates.Untilthisdecade,however,bothpartiesandespeciallythehistoricallymorecohesiveRepublicans
managedtokeepsufficientclasspeacetopreservepartyunity.
Notanymore,atleastnotfortheRepublicans.
TheGreatRecessionendedinthesummerof2009.Sincethen,theU.S.economyhasbeengrowing,butmost
incomeshavenotgrowncomparably.In2014,realmedianhouseholdincomeremainedalmost$4,000below
thepre-recessionlevel,andwellbelowthelevelin1999.Thecountryhasrecoveredfromtheworsteconomic
disastersincetheGreatDepression.Mostofitspeoplehavenot.ManyRepublicanshaventsharedinthe
recoveryandcontinuedupwardflightoftheirmoreaffluentfellowpartisans.
ItwasthesepessimisticRepublicanswhopoweredtheTeaPartymovementof2009and2010.Theywerenot,
asarule,libertarianslookingforanultraminimalgovernment.ThecloseststudywehaveofthebeliefsofTea
Partysupporters,ledbyThedaSkocpol,aHarvardpoliticalscientist,foundthatTeaPartiersjudgeentitlement
programsnotintermsofabstractfree-marketorthodoxy,butaccordingtotheperceiveddeservingnessof
recipients.ThedistinctionbetweenworkersandpeoplewhodontworkisfundamentaltoTeaPartyideology.
MarcoRubioatatown-hallmeetingattheWolfeboroInninWolfeboroonOctober7.(MarkOstow/New
ItsuncertainwhetheranyTeaPartiereverreallycarriedaplacardthatreadkeepyourgovernmenthandsoff
mymedicare.Butifso,thatpersonwasntspoutinggibberish.TheObamaadministrationhadlaidhandson
Medicare.Ithopedtosqueeze$500billionoutoftheprogramfrom2010to2020tofinancehealthinsurancefor
theuninsured.Youdidnthavetolookupthefigurestohaveasensethatmanyoftheuninsuredwere
noncitizens(20percent),orthatevenmorewereforeign-born(27percent).IntheTeaPartysangrytown-hall
meetings,thisissueresonatedperhapsmoreloudlythananyothertheultimateexampleofredistributionfrom
adeservingustoanundeservingthem.
YetevenastheRepublicanMainStreetprotestedObamacare,itrejectedthehardeningideologicalorthodoxy
ofRepublicandonorsandelectedofficials.AsubstantialminorityofRepublicansalmost30percentsaidthey
wouldwelcomeheavytaxesonthewealthy,accordingtoGallup.WithinthepartythatmadePaulRyans
entitlement-slashingbudgetplanacenterpieceofpolicy,only21percentfavoredcutsinMedicareandonly17
percentwantedtoseespendingonSocialSecurityreduced,accordingtoPew.Lessthanathirdofordinary
Republicanssupportedapathwaytocitizenshipforillegalimmigrants(againaccordingtoPew)amajority,by
contrast,favoredstepped-updeportation.
Asaclass,bigRepublicandonorscouldnotseeanyofthis,orwouldnot.Soneitherdidthepoliticianswho
dependuponthem.Againstallevidence,bothgroupsinterpretedtheTeaPartyasamassmovementinfavorof
theagendaoftheWallStreetJournaleditorialpage.Oneofthemoredangerouspleasuresofgreatwealthis
thatyouneverhavetohearanyonetellyouthatyouarecompletelywrong.
JebBushonhiscampaignbusinRyeonNovember3.(MarkOstow/NewHampshiremagazine/TheAtlantic)
ItwasmittromneywhogotthefirstpostTeaPartypresidentialnomination,andheranonaplatformof
ConservatismClassic:taxcuts,budgetcuts,deregulation,freetradealllightlyseasonedwithsome
concessionstothebaseregardingstricterimmigrationenforcement.Therankandfiledidnotlikeit.Butthey
couldnotstopit.ThebasekeptelevatingnotRomneysintofirstplace,andeachrapidlyfailedorfizzled
Romney,supportedbyacumulativetotalof$139millioninprimaryfundsbyMarch2012,trundledon.
Romneyultimatelylostthepresidentialelection,ofcourse,tothesurpriseanddismayofapartyeliteconfident
ofvictoryuntiltheveryend.Onemighthaveexpectedthisshocktoforcearethink.TheRepublicanshadnow
lostfouroutofthepastsixpresidentialelections.AnotherelectionhadbeenwononlyintheElectoralCollege,
despitethelossofthepopularvote.Eventheirbestshowing,50.7percentofthevotein2004,representedthe
closestescapeofanyincumbentpresidentwhowonreelectionsincethefirstrecordedpopularvote.
Andyet,withinhoursofRomneysdefeat,Republicandonors,talkers,andofficialsconvergedonthemaximally
self-exculpatingexplanation.TheproblemhadnotbeentheplantophaseoutMedicareforpeopleyounger
than55.Orthelackofideasabouthowtoraisewages.Orthecommitmenttoendinghealth-insurance
coverageformillionsofworking-ageAmericans.Ortheanthemstowealthcreationandentrepreneurshipina
countryincreasinglyskepticalofboth.No,theproblemwastheoneelementofRomneysmessagetheyhad
neverlikedanyway:immigrationenforcement.
Ownersofcapitalassets,employersoflow-skilllaborers,andhighlycompensatedprofessionalstendtobenefit
economicallyfromthearrivalofimmigrants.Theyarebetterpositionedtoenjoytheattractiveculturalandsocial
resultsofmigration(more-interestingfood!)andtoprotectthemselvesagainsttheburdensomeimpacts(surges
innon-English-proficientpupilsinpublicschools).Apro-immigrationpolicyshiftwasonemoreassertionofclass
interestinapartyprogramalreadybrimfulofthem.
NobodyexpressedthepartyelitesconsensusviewmoreassuredlythanCharlesKrauthammer.Ignorethe
trimmers,hewroteinhisfirstpostelectioncolumn.Theresnoneedforradicalchange.Theotherpartythinks
itownsthedemographicfuturecounterthatinonestrokebyfixingtheLatinoproblem.Donot,however,
abandonthepartysphilosophicalanchorNoreinventionwhennoneisneeded.
Wevegottagetridoftheimmigrationissuealtogether,SeanHannitytoldhisradioaudiencethedayafterthe
election.Itssimpleformetofixit.Ithinkyoucontroltheborderfirst,youcreateapathwayforthosepeople
thatarehere,youdontsay,Yougottagohome.AndthatisapositionthatIveevolvedon.
Aco-ownerofFoxNewsKrauthammerandHannitysTVnetworkagreed:Musthavesweeping,generous
immigrationreform,tweetedRupertMurdochonNovember7,2012.Itwouldbeinhumanetosendthose
peopleback,tosend12millionpeopleoutofthiscountry,thecasinomogulandRepublicandonorSheldon
AdelsontoldTheWallStreetJournalinDecemberofthatyear.Wevegottofindaway,findaroute,forthose
peopletogetlegalcitizenship.TheRepublicanNationalCommitteemadeitallofficialinaMarch2013
postelectionreportsignedbypartyeminences.Thereportgenerallyavoidedpolicyrecommendations,witha
notableexception:Wemustembraceandchampioncomprehensiveimmigrationreform.Toadvancethe
cause,PaulSinger,oneofthemostopen-pocketedGOPdonors,madeasix-figurecontributiontotheNational
ImmigrationForumthatspring.
IfallofthissoundslikeaprescriptionforaJebBushcandidacyforpresidentwell,perhapsthatwasnotan
entirelyunintendedconsequence.
AlmostassoonasthenewCongressconvenedin2013,SenateRepublicansworkedtostrikeadealover
immigrationissues.AbipartisanGangofEight,includingFloridasambitiousyoungMarcoRubio,agreedona
planthatwouldcreateapathtocitizenshipformillionsofillegalimmigrantsandsubstantiallyincreaselegal-
immigrationlimitsforbothhigh-andlow-skilledworkers.Otherwise,thepartyyieldedonnothinganddoubled
downoneverything.NoU-turns.Nocompromises.
TedCruzataPracticalFederalismforumatSouthernNewHampshireUniversity,inHooksett,onOctober3.
(MarkOstow/NewHampshiremagazine/TheAtlantic)
Thenewstrategysoonprovedatotalandutterfailure.GeorgeW.Bushstaxcutsforhighearnersexpiredin
2013,andRepublicanscouldnotrenewthem.Thedrivetocutthedeficitendedinbudgetsequestration,whose
harshesteffectfellonthemilitary.TheGangofEightdealnevercametoavoteintheHouse.Allthewhile,
Republicansapprovalratingsslippedandslid.InsteadofholdingontotheirbaseandaddingHispanics,
Republicansalienatedtheirbaseinreturnfornogainsatall.Bymid-2015,amajorityofself-identified
Republicansdisapprovedoftheirpartyscongressionalleadershipanintensityofdisapprovalneverseenby
theRepublicanmajorityofthe1990snorbyDemocratsduringtheirtimeinthemajorityafterthe2006midterm
elections.
Infact,disapprovalhadflaredintoanoutrightrevoltoftheRepublicanbaseinthesummerof2014.House
MajorityLeaderEricCantor,theNo.2manintheRepublicancaucus,hademergedasaleaderofthenewline
onimmigration.UpforreelectioninVirginiasSeventhDistrict,Cantorwaschallengedthatyearbya
conservativeChristianprofessorofeconomics,DaveBrat.DuringObamasfirstterm,TeaPartyinsurgentshad
toppledincumbentsanddefeatedpartyfavoritesinprimariesfromDelawaretoNevada.Thosechallengeshad
endedbadlyinthegeneralelection,forthemostpart:TeaPartyRepublicanslostatleastfiveSenateseatsthat
mightplausiblyhavebeenwon.Partyleadersbelievedthelessonhadbeenlearnedandexpectedtheirvoters
tobemoretractableinfutureelections.
CantorslosstoBratjoltedHouseleaders.Immigrationreformslippedofftheiragenda.MarcoRubiorepudiated
hisowndeal.ButRepublicanelitesoutsideCongressdidnotgetthemessage.TheyrationalizedCantors
defeatasafreakevent,thesadconsequenceofanationallymindedpoliticiansneglectofhisdistrict.They
continuedtofillthecoffersofJebBushand,toalesserextent,RubioandScottWalker,allreliablepurveyorsof
ConservatismClassic.LastFebruary,threeofthepartysmostimportantmoneymenthefast-foodexecutive
AndrewPuzder,thehealth-careinvestorMikeFernandez,andthenationalfinancechairofMittRomneys2012
campaign,SpencerZwickpubliclyurgedtheGOPtopushaheadtowardmore-openimmigration.America
shouldbeadestinationforhardworkingimmigrantsfromallovertheworld,saidPuzder,anadvocateof
importingmorelow-skilledlaborerstomeettheneedsofhishigh-turnoverindustry.Zwicksaidthatany
presidentialcandidatewhowantedtobetakenseriouslyhadbetterbeinasimilarplacetoJebBushonthe
immigrationissue.
MaybeitwasnotagoodideaforJebBushsalliestodescribehisfund-raisingstrategyasshockandawe.
PerhapstheIraqWarreferencestirredpainfulmemories,evenamongRepublicans.Still,Bushsfund-raising
genuinelyinspiredawe.Inhisfinancialdisclosureforthesecondquarterof2015,Bushreportedraising$11.4
millionforhisformalcampaignandanother$103millionforhissuperPAC.Thesefundswereprovidedbya
relativelysmallnumberofverywealthypeople.OfBushspresidential-campaigndollars,only3percentarrived
inamountsof$200orless.Almost82percentarrivedinthemaximumincrementof$2,700.Nearly80percentof
Bushssuper-PACtakearrivedinincrementsof$25,000ormoreaboutaquarterofthehaulwasmadeupof
donationsof$1millionormore.
Yetseldominthehistoryoffund-raisinghassomuchboughtsolittle,sofleetingly.BetweenDecember2014
andSeptember2015,JebBushplungedfromfirstplaceintheRepublicanfieldtofifth.BetweenlateSeptember
andmid-October,hepurchased60percentofallpoliticalspotsairedinNewHampshire.Thatadbarrage
pushedhispollnumbersinthestatefromabout9percenttoabout8percent.
ChrisChristieatthe2015NewHampshireEducationSummitinLondonerryonAugust19.(MarkOstow/New
AsthegovernorofFlorida,Bushhadcuttaxesandbalancedbudgets.Hedchallengedunionsandchampioned
charterschools.Atthesametime,Bushpassionatelysupportedimmigrationliberalization.Thecentraleventin
hislifehistorywashisreinventionasanhonoraryLatinoAmericanwhenhemarriedaMexicanwoman,Columba
GarnicadeGallo.HespokeSpanishathome.HeconvertedtoCatholicism.HesoughthisfortunewithaCuban
Americanbusinesspartner.Inhismostquotablephrase,hedescribedillegalimmigrationasanactoflove.
BushsupdateofConservatismClassichadmadehimahitwiththepartysbigdonors.Hehadwonaccolades
fromKarlRove(thedeepestthinkeronourside)andArthurBrooks,thepresidentoftheAmericanEnterprise
Institute(atop-drawerintellect).YetwithinfiveweeksofhisformaldeclarationofcandidacyonJune15,Bushs
campaignhadbeenbrutallyrejectedbytheGOPrankandfile.
FromJupiterIsland,Florida,toGreenwich,ConnecticutfromDallassHighlandParktoSeaIsland,Georgia
fromFifthAvenueinManhattantoCaliforniasNewportBeach,thebaffledquestionresounded:Whatwent
wrong?
Big-dollarRepublicanfavoriteshaverunintotroublebefore,ofcourse.RudyGiulianiimplodedin200708Mitt
Romneys2012nominationwasknockedoffcourseasRepublicansworkedtheirwaythroughaseriesof
alternativefront-runners:RickPerry,HermanCain,NewtGingrich,andfinallyRickSantorum.ButGiulianilost
groundtotworivalsequallyacceptabletothedonorelite,ornearlyso:MittRomneyandJohnMcCain.In2011
12,thelongestanyofthenotRomneysremainedinfirstplacewassixweeks.Inbothcycles,resistancetothe
partyfavoritewasconcentratedamongsocialandreligiousconservatives.
Themutinyofthe2016electioncyclehasbeendifferent.Bythefallof2015,amajorityofRepublicansfavored
candidateswhohadneverbeenelectedtoanything:DonaldTrump,BenCarson,andCarlyFiorina.Fiorinas
campaignwasperhapsnotsounusual.AformerCEO,sheappealedtothesamebusiness-mindedRepublicans
whomighthavevotedforRomneyin2012.Carsonappealedtothesamereligiousconservativesthat
candidateslikeMikeHuckabeeandSantorumhadappealedtoinpriorpresidentialcycles.Whatwasnewand
astonishingwastheTrumpboom.Hejettisonedpartyorthodoxyonissuesrangingfromentitlementspendingto
foreignpolicy.Hescoffedattradeagreements.HesaidrudethingsaboutSheldonAdelsonandtheKoch
brothers.Hereviledthecampaigncontributionsofbigdonorshimselfincluded!asopenandblatantfavor-
buying.TrumpssurgewasadecisiverepudiationbymillionsofRepublicanvotersofthecollectivewisdomof
theirpartyelite.
WhenTrumpfirsteruptedintotheRepublicanraceinJune,hedidsowithamessageofgrimpessimism.We
got$18trillionindebt.WegotnothingbutproblemsWeredying.Weredying.WeneedmoneyWehave
losers.Wehavepeoplethatdonthaveit.Wehavepeoplethataremorallycorrupt.Wehavepeoplethatare
sellingthiscountrydownthedrainTheAmericandreamisdead.
ThatmessagedidnotresonatewiththosewhodriddentheS&P500fromlessthan900in2009tomorethan
2,000in2015.Butitfoundanaudienceallthesame.HalfofTrumpssupporterswithintheGOPhadstopped
theireducationatorbeforehigh-schoolgraduation,accordingtothepollingfirmYouGov.Only19percenthad
acollegeorpostcollegedegree.Thirty-eightpercentearnedlessthan$50,000.Only11percentearnedmore
than$100,000.
TrumpRepublicanswerenotideologicallymilitant.Just13percentsaidtheywereveryconservative19percent
describedthemselvesasmoderate.NorweretheyhighlyreligiousbyRepublicanstandards.
Left:CarlyFiorinaonafactorytouratRapidSheetMetalinNashuaonOctober5.Right:MikeHuckabeeat
formerMassachusettsSenatorScottBrownsBackyardNoBSBBQinRyeonOctober16.(MarkOstow/New
WhatsetthemapartfromotherRepublicanswastheireconomicinsecurityandtheintensityoftheireconomic
nationalism.Sixty-threepercentofTrumpsupporterswishedtoendbirthrightcitizenshipforthechildrenof
illegalimmigrantsbornonU.S.soiladozenpointshigherthanthenormforallRepublicans.Morethanother
Republicans,TrumpsupportersdistrustedBarackObamaasalienanddangerous:Only21percent
acknowledgedthatthepresidentwasbornintheUnitedStates,accordingtoanAugustsurveybythe
Democratic-orientedpollingfirmPPP.Sixty-sixpercentbelievedthepresidentwasaMuslim.
Trumppromisedtoprotectthesevoterspensionsfromtheirownpartysausterity.WevegotSocialSecurity
thatsgoingtobedestroyedifsomebodylikemedoesntbringmoneyintothecountry.Alltheseotherpeople
wanttocutthehelloutofit.ImnotgoingtocutitatallImgoingtobringmoneyin,andweregoingtosaveit.
HepromisedtoprotecttheirchildrenfrombeingdrawnintoanotherwarintheMiddleEast,thistimeinSyria.If
weregoingtohaveWorldWarIII,hetoldTheWashingtonPostinOctober,itsnotgoingtobeoverSyria.As
forthepoliticiansthreateningtoshootdowntheRussianjetsflyingmissionsinSyria,Iwontevencallthem
hawks.Icallthemthefools.
HepromisedacampaignindependentoftheinfluencesofmoneythathadswayedsomanyRepublicanracesof
thepast.Iwilltellyouthatoursystemisbroken.Igavetomanypeople.Beforethis,beforetwomonthsago,I
wasabusinessman.Igivetoeverybody.Whentheycall,Igive.Andyouknowwhat?WhenIneedsomething
fromthem,twoyearslater,threeyearslater,Icallthem.Theyarethereforme.Andthatsabrokensystem.
HepromisedabovealltoprotecttheirwagesfrombeingundercutbyRepublicanimmigrationpolicy.
Left:RandPaulatameetandgreetatMaryAnnsDinerinWindhamonJuly26.Right:JohnKasichatatown-
hallmeetingintheVeteransofForeignWarsbuildinginDerryonAugust12.(MarkOstow/NewHampshire
magazine/TheAtlantic)
Itcannotlast,canit?Thecasinodoesnotalwayswin,StuartStevens,MittRomneysleadstrategistduringthe
2012campaign,quippedtomeinSeptember.Butthatsthewaytobet.Thecasinowonin2012,andwillvery
likelywinagainin2016.
Andyetalready,Trumphasdestroyedoneelite-favoredpresidentialcandidacy,ScottWalkers,andcrippledtwo
others,JebBushsandChrisChristies.Hehasthrownintodisarraythepartyspost-2012comebackstrategy,
andpulledintothecenterofnationaldiscussionissuesandconstituencieslongrelegatedtothemargins.
SomethinghaschangedinAmericanpoliticssincetheGreatRecession.Theoldslogansringhollow.The
insurgentcandidatesarelessabsurd,theorthodoxcandidatesmorevulnerable.TheGOPdonoreliteplanned
adynasticrestorationin2016.Instead,ittriggeredaninternalclasswar.
Thecontestforthepresidencyturnsonexternaleventsasmuchasormorethaninternalpartypolitics.
GeorgeW.Bushsteambelievedthatthelast-minuterevelationofa1976drunk-drivingarrestcosthimthe
popularvoteinthe2000election.JimmyCarterblamedhis1980defeatonthedebacleoftheattemptedrescue
ofAmericanhostagesinIran.Soanythingcanhappen.Butthatdoesnotmeananythingwillhappen.Barring
shocks,presidentialelectionsturnonthefundamentalsofeconomics,demography,andideology.
ThepuzzleforthemoniedleadersoftheRepublicanPartyis:Whatnow?Andwhatnextafterthat?Noneofthe
optionsfacingtheGOPeliteisentirelycongenial.Butthereappeartobefourpathstheelitecouldfollow,for
thiscampaignseasonandbeyond.Theyleadthepartyinverydifferentdirections.
Option1:DoubleDown
ThepremiseofthepastfewthousandwordsisthattheRepublicandonorelitefailedtoimposeitspreferred
candidateonanunwillingbasein2015forbigandimportantreasons.Butmaybethatpremiseiswrong.Maybe
JebBushhasjustbeenabadcandidatewitharadioactivelastname.Maybethesamemessageandplatform
wouldhaveworkedfineifespousedbyafresherandliveliercandidate.SuchisthetheoryofMarcoRubios
campaign.Orevenifthedonormessageandplatformhavetroublesmaybe$100millioninnegativeadscan
scorchanypotentialalternative,enablingthedonor-backedcandidatetowinbydefault.
AndifnotRubio,maybethecoredonormessagecouldstillworkifjoinedtoatrueoutsidercandidacy:Ben
Carsons,forexample.Carsonisoftenregardedasaprotestcandidate,butasTheWeeklyStandardsFred
BarnesenthusedbackinJanuary2015:OnethingnotindoubtisCarsonsconservatism.Hestherealdeal,an
economic,social,andforeignpolicyconservative.Carsonmaysaywackythings,buthedoesnotsay
heterodoxthings.
YeteveniftheRepublicandonorelitecankeepcontrolofthepartywhiledoublingdown,itsdoubtfulthatthe
tacticcanultimatelywinpresidentialelections.Thechangenothingbutimmigrationadvicewasaself-flattering
fantasyfromthestart.ImmigrationisnotthemainreasonRepublicanpresidentialcandidateslosesobadly
amongLatinoandAsianAmericanvoters,andneverwas:Latinovotersaremorelikelytolisteducationand
healthcareasissuesthatareextremelyimportanttothem.AmajorityofAsianAmericansarenon-Christianand
susceptibletoexclusionbysectarianreligiousthemes.
So
Option2:TacticalConcession
Perhapssomeconcessiontothedisgruntledbaseisneeded.ThatsthetheoryoftheCruzcampaignand
afteracoursecorrectionalsooftheChristiecampaign.Insteadof2013sConservatismClassicPlus
ImmigrationLiberalization,CruzandChristieareurgingConservatismClassicPlusImmigrationEnforcement.
True,Cruzscarefullyselectedwordsonimmigrationleaveopenthepossibilityofguest-workerprogramsor
otherpro-employerreformsafteraburstofborderenforcement.ButCruzandChristiehaveseenthereaction
toDonaldTrumpsmessage,andappeartoappreciatetheneedtoatleastseemtodosomethingtoredress
thegrievancesoftheRepublicanbase.
MuchofthedonorelitecouldlikelybeconvincedthatwhileJebBushsideaofimmigrationreformwouldbe
goodtohave,itisntamust-have.Justasthepartyelitereachedapactonabortionwithsocialconservativesin
the1980s,itcouldconcedetheimmigrationissuetoitsMainStreetbaseinthe2010s.
YetanarrowfocusonimmigrationpopulismaloneseemsinsufficienttoraiseRepublicanhopes.Trumpshrewdly
joinshisimmigrationpopulismtotradepopulism.OntheDemocraticside,BernieSanderssoppositiontoopen
bordersislogicallyconnectedtohishopesforaDemocraticSocialistfuture:HisadmiredDenmarkupholdshigh
laborstandardsalongwithsomeoftheworldstoughestimmigrationrules.Severedfromalargeragenda,
howeverasMittRomneytriedtosevertheissuein2012immigrationpopulismlooksatbestlikepandering,
andatworstlikeidentitypoliticsforwhitevoters.Inasocietythatisandalwayshasbeenmultiethnicand
polyglot,anynationalpartymustcompetemorebroadlythanthat.
Whichbringsusto
Option3:TrueReform
Admittedly,thismaybethemostuncongenialthoughtofthemall,butpartyelitescouldtrytoopenmore
ideologicalspacefortheeconomicinterestsofthemiddleclass.Makepeacewithuniversalhealth-insurance
coverage:MendObamacareratherthanendit.Cuttaxeslessatthetop,andusethemoneytodelivermore
benefitstoworkingfamiliesinthemiddle.Deviseimmigrationpolicytosupportwages,notundercutthem.Worry
moreaboutregulationsthatartificiallytransferwealthupward,andlessaboutregulationsthatconstrainfinancial
speculation.Takeseriouslyissuessuchasthelengthofcommutes,nursing-homecosts,andtheanticompetitive
practicesthatinflatecollegetuition.RememberthatRepublicanvoterscaremoreaboutaligninggovernment
withtheirvaluesofworkandfamilythantheycareaboutcuttingthesizeofgovernmentasanendinitself.
Recognizethatthegimmickofmobilizingthebasewithculture-waroutragesstoppedworkingatleastadecade
ago.
Left:RickSantorumatMurphysDinerinManchesteronJuly25.Center:LindseyGrahamattheMilfordLabor
DayparadeonSeptember7.Right:GeorgePatakiattheGraniteStateBrewersAssociationSummerfestat
ArmsPark,inManchester,onJuly25.(MarkOstow/NewHampshiremagazine/TheAtlantic)
Suchapartywouldcuthealth-carecostsbysqueezingproviders,notyoungbeneficiaries.Itwouldboost
productivitybyinvestinginhardinfrastructurebridges,airports,water-treatmentplants.ItwouldrestoreDwight
EisenhowertotheRepublicanpantheonalongsideRonaldReaganandemphasizethecenterincenter-right.
Toimaginethechangeistoseehowconvulsiveitwouldbeandhowunlikely.True,center-rightconservative
partiesbackedbybroadmultiethniccoalitionsofthemiddleclasshavegainedandexercisedpowerinother
English-speakingcountries,evenasRepublicanslostthepresidencyin2008and2012.Butthemost-influential
voicesinAmericanconservatismrejecttheexperienceoftheirforeigncounterpartsasweak,unprincipled,and
unnecessary.Inparliamentarydemocracy,winningorlosingisstarklybinary:Apartyeitherisinpoweroristhe
opposition.IntheAmericansystem,thatbinaryismuchblurrier.Republicanscan,ofcourse,exertsomecontrol
overgovernmentaslongastheyholdanyoneoftheHouse,Senate,orpresidency.
Whichbringsusfinallyto
Option4:ChangetheRulesoftheGame
Thefilibusterusedtobebad.Nowitsgood.SoFredThompson,thelateactorandformerRepublican
senator,jokinglytoldanaudienceonaNationalReviewcruiseshortlyafterBarackObamawonthepresidency
forthefirsttime.Howpartisansfeelaboutprocessissuesisnotoriouslyrelatedtowhatprocesswouldbenefit
thematanygivenmoment.LiberalslovedtheinterventionistSupremeCourtinthe1960sand70s,hateditin
the1990sand2000sandmayrotatetheiropinionagainifaPresidentHillaryClintoncantiltamajorityofthe
SupremeCourttheirway.ItsanoldstorythatmayfindanewtwistifandwhenRepublicansacknowledgethat
thepresidencymaybeattainableonlyaftertheymakepolicychangesthatareunacceptabletothepartyelite.
Therearemetrics,afterall,bywhichthepost-2009GOPappearstobeasupremelysuccessfulpoliticalparty.
Recently,RoryCooper,ofthecommunicationsfirmPurpleStrategies,talliedanetgaintotheRepublicansof69
seatsintheHouseofRepresentatives,13seatsintheSenate,900-plusseatsinstatelegislatures,and12
governorshipssinceObamatookoffice.Withthatkindofgriponstategovernment,inparticular,Republicans
arewellpositionedtowriteelectionandvotingrulesthatsustaintheirholdonthenationallegislature.The
presidentmaybeabletograntformerlyillegalimmigrantstherighttowork,buthecannotgrantthemtherightto
vote.Inthislight,insteadofrevisingRepublicanpoliciestostopfutureBarackObamasandHillaryClintons,
maybeitsnecessarytoreviseonlythepartyrulestostopfutureDonaldTrumpsfromconfrontingpartyelites
withtheirownunpopularity.
TheinauguralissueofTheWeeklyStandard,theconservativemagazinelaunchedin1995,depictedthen
SpeakeroftheHouseNewtGingrichswingingintoaction,asubmachinegunblazinginhislefthand,underthe
headlinePermanentOffense.Butthatwasthen.Maybethemorenaturalconditionofconservativepartiesis
permanentdefenseandwherebettertowagealong,grindingdefensivecampaignthaninCongressandthe
statehouses?Maybethepresidencyitselfshouldberegardedasoneofthosethingsthatisgoodtohavebut
notamust-have,especiallyifobtainingitrequiresuncomfortablechange.
Whathappenstoanelitewhosefollowerswithdrawtheirassent?Doesitself-examine?Ordoesittakerefugein
denial?Doesitchange?Ordoesittrytopreventchange?Doesitchallengeitselftobuildanewpolitical
majority?OrdoesitseizetheopportunitiestheAmericanpoliticalsystemofferstocompactandpurposeful
minorities?Whenitsoldanswersfail,willitthinkanew?Orwillitsimplyrepeatlouderthedogmasthatenthralled
supportersinthepast?Americanslovethecrushofcompetition,thehard-foughtstruggle,thelong-slogging
race.ButmuchmorethanthepunditsWhowillwin?,itisthesedeeperquestionsfromtheelectionof2016
thatwillshapethefutureofAmericanpolitics.
Senttime: 12/20/201512:01:41PM
FW:[YEHYPOCRITES!!!ORTHE"DUGINDIALECTIC"INACTION!!!][SOPTOTHERIGHT]WoodinWashT:WhyPutinrespects
Subject:
Trump[two'nationalists'],notObama.....[SOPTOTHELEFT][SEEJohnDDigest12-20]Putinsayswillnot'abandon'RussiansinUkraine...
Attachments: image001.png
Sent:Sunday,December20,201511:39AM
Subject:Fwd:[YEHYPOCRITES!!!ORTHE"DUGINDIALECTIC"INACTION!!!][SOPTOTHERIGHT]WoodinWashT:WhyPutin
respectsTrump[two'nationalists'],notObama.....[SOPTOTHELEFT][SEEJohnDDigest12-20]Putinsayswillnot'abandon'Russians
inUkraine...
Date:Sun,Dec20,2015at2:30PM
Subject:[YEHYPOCRITES!!!ORTHE"DUGINDIALECTIC"INACTION!!!][SOPTOTHERIGHT]WoodinWashT:
WhyPutinrespectsTrump[two'nationalists'],notObama.....[SOPTOTHELEFT][SEEJohnDDigest12-20]Putinsayswill
not'abandon'RussiansinUkraineto[UA]nationalists......[ADD]PeterBonthe'DutchArtThief'Story&DutchEU-UA
Referendum[Nowitmakessense!!RUDezinformasanew'highscience'].....PLUSPutinReignbytheNumbers[ImageMissing
fromPreviousMemoinSomeBccSections]
From:JLG<........com>
Subject:WT/LTWood:WhyPutinrespectsTrump,notObama[ED:OHLOOK.....TwoNationalistsUnderstandEach
Other.....HowNice!!]
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/dec/19/l-todd-wood-why-putin-respects-trump/
WhyPutinrespectsTrump,notObama
ByL.ToddWood--Saturday,December19,2015
AfterthefalloftheSovietUnion,theRussianpopulationfeltagreatloss.Thishistoricallypowerfulandproud
peoplehadspentthelastseventyyearsasuperpowernowthatwasgone,replacedwithshameandhardshipas
theireconomycollapsedandtheirgeopoliticalprioritieswerehumiliatedbytheWestaroundtheworld.Theworst
ofthesewastheconflictintheBalkans,astheethniccleansingagainstMuslimsinBosniabySerbswashalted
withNATObombingandtheSerbswereforcedintoapeaceagreement.Thelong-termSovietallysleaderswere
huntedbytheWorldCourtforwarcrimesandinRussiaseyes,unfairlyprosecuted.Russiansstillbringupthefact
thatNATOactedalone,withoutRussiasvoteintheU.N.SecurityCouncil.
ThisshamecontinuedforadecadewithRussianPresidentBorisYeltsinroutinelydrunkandfallingdownat
internationalevents.ThefirstChechenwarwasadevastatingdefeatfortheRussianarmedforcesandmoral
collapsed.
Then,enterstageright,VladimirPutin.
PutinusedthesecondconflictinChechnyatoconvincinglyputdowntherebellioninhisfirstbrushwithIslamic
violence.Hewasnotafraidtousebrutalitytowintheconflictandre-establishRussiancontrolovertheprimarily
Muslimarea.
AsPresidentforthenextdecadeandahalf,officiallyornot,Putinoversawavastincreaseintheaverage
Russiansstandardofliving.MillionsofRussianswerebroughtintothemiddleclass.Heisseenasastrong,
effectiveleaderwhostandsupforhiscountryandhispeople,hencehissky-highdomesticpopularityratings.The
commentIhearmostfrequentinMoscowis,Russiaisstrongagain.Noonewillmesswithusnow.
InTrump,Putinseesasimilarpersonashimselfinmanyways.HerelatestoTrumpsloveofcountry,tohisslogan
ofmakingAmericagreatagain.HeunderstandsTrumpsbrilliantassessmentoftheAmericanpeoples
frustrationattheUnitedStatesbeinghumiliatedaroundtheworld,economicallyandgeopolitically,itsborders
beingoverrunanditsleadershipcomplicitinanillegalimmigrantinvasion.utin,aswellastensofmillionsof
Americans,doesntunderstandPresidentObamasweakness,hisobvioushatredofwhathiscountrystandsfor
anditspastsuccess,andhisintentionalweakeningofAmericanpowerglobally.HedoesntrespectObama.Im
surePutinwonders,HowcouldAmericaelectsomeonelikethat?Twice?ThatdoesntstopPutinfromtaking
advantageofObamascharacteristicsontheworldstagehowever.
ThereforeitisonlynaturalthatPutinwouldgiveheartfeltadmirationforthegainsTrumphasmadeintheprimary
electionprocess.ItsasimplevoicingofrespectforTrumpscampaignstyleandpriorities.
TheproblemforTrumpisthatPutinisalsoadictatorwhohasnoproblemrubbingouttheopposition,nomatter
whethertheyliveinMoscoworinLondon.Putinisalsorumoredtobetherichestmanintheworld,withupwardsof
$200billionstashedaroundtheglobe,alongwithhisotheroligarchfriendsrunningthecountry.Obviouslybeing
presidentofRussiahasitsperks.
IfindithumorousthattheLeftisnowcallingTrumpadictatorwhenitistheirPresidentObamawhohasroutinely
abusedhispowerandthatofthefederalgovernment.WhetheritbeusingtheIRSandotheragenciestotargetthe
politicalopposition,stokingtheracialfiresforpoliticalgain,orstonewallingotherbranchesofgovernment
investigatingexecutivebranchcorruption,theObamaadministrationhastobethemostcorruptinhistory.Wewill
probablynotknowhowdeeptherabbitholegoesuntilheisoutofoffice.TheDemocratsleadingpresidential
candidateisunderinvestigationbytheFBIforgoodnesssake,soitdoesntlooklikeanotherDemocrat
administrationwillchangemuch.
TrumpsputtingAmericafirst,securingourborders,andgoingaftertheenemieswhowanttokillus,isallwelland
good.Americaneedsastrongleader.However,Trumphastobecarefultoseparatetheseinclinationsfromthe
corruptionanddictatorialtendenciesofVladimirPutin,orBarackObama.
Subject:"Putinsays[he]willNOT'abandon'RussiansinUkraineto[Ukrainian]nationalists,"reuters,com,12/20
Putinsays[he]willNOT'abandon'RussiansinUkraineto[Ukrainian]nationalists,"reuters,com,12/20
PutinwillnotabandonRussianslivinginsoutheastUkrainetoUkrainiannationalistsWeproceedfrom
onlyonething[Putinsaid],whichiswecannotjustabandonthepeoplewholiveinthesoutheastofthe
countrytonationaliststoEATthemupThereisnothingexcessiveinthatposition.Hedidnotelaborate.
And:PutinSALUTESRussiasintelligenceagenciesonnationalspiesday,theguardian.com,12/20/15
And:SevenprotestersholdanactionagainstnationalspiesdayoutsidetheFSBbuildingontheLubyanka
theyareimmediatelyarrested(seephoto):http://tvrain.ru/news/zaderzhali-400493/
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-putin-nationalists-idUSKBN0U30HG20151220
World|SunDec20,20159:17amEST
Related:WORLD
Putinsayswillnot'abandon'Russiansin
Ukrainetonationalists
MOSCOW
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinspeaksduringhisannualend-of-yearnewsconferenceinMoscow,Russia,December17,2015.
REUTERS/MAXIMZMEYEV
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinwillnotabandonRussianslivinginsoutheastUkrainetoUkrainiannationalists,
thestate-runRIAnewsagencyquotedhimassayinginadocumentaryduetobebroadcastlateronSunday.
MoscowsaysUkrainiannationalistsposeathreattoethnicRussiansandRussian-speakingUkrainiansinthe
region.Morethan9,000peoplehavebeenkilledinfightingineasternUkrainebetweenRussian-backed
separatistsandUkrainiantroopssinceApril2014.
"Weproceedfromonlyonething,whichiswecannotjustabandonthepeoplewholiveinthesoutheastofthe
countrytonationaliststoeatthemup,"Putinsaid.
"Thereisnothingexcessiveinthatposition."
Hedidnotelaborate.
PutinhasdeniedallegationsbyindependentobserversandmediathatRussianregulartroopsaretakingpartin
theconflict.However,onFridayheadmittedthatRussiadidhavepersonnelineasternUkrainewhowerecarrying
outcertainmilitarytasks.
AccordingtoRIA,PutinalsosaidRussiawouldcontinuetoimproveitsnucleararsenal,butaddedthatitwouldnot
wieldthe"nuclearbigstick".
(ReportingbyVladimirSoldatkinEditingbyAndrewBolton)
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Sun,Dec20,2015at11:17AM
Subject:UkrainedefenseunitsuspectedincaseofstolenDutchartwork(UPDATED)
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>
CleverRussiandezinformatworktopoisonthewellforUkraineintheEU.Hollandhasyettoapprove
theUA/EUAssociationAgreementvoteApril6Russianoligarchsandgangsters(apologiesforthe
redundancy)havelongbeenaprimemarketforstolenart,jewelry,etc.Professionaljumbleofgood
andbadnamesnowtiedinwiththestorybecomesaselfsmearingmixAlmostmakestheDutch
forgetaboutMH17ExpectthestorytobuildasApril6nears.
http://www.kyivpost.com/article/content/ukraine-politics/ukraine-defense-unit-suspected-in-case-of-stolen-dutch-art-
work-403880.html
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at7:49PM
Subject:3yearsofPutin-HowRussiahaschangedinthe3yearssincesanctionscameintopower
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,Walter
PutinPostSanctions[SEEBELOW&ATTACHMENT]

Senttime: 12/20/201510:34:52AM
FW:SUNMORNING/EST[NOTSO]FUNNIES....FirstCategory:ImagingPutin[Putin'sVictoryLapPutinbytheNumbersPeterPonVlad'sRU,TrumpandVladwith
Subject:
SamePlayBook].......SecondCategory:TakingMeasureofPutin'sOld/NewFriendsandOld/New...
Subject:Fwd:SUNMORNING/EST[NOTSO]FUNNIES....FirstCategory:ImagingPutin[Putin'sVictoryLapPutinbytheNumbersPeterPonVlad'sRU,
TrumpandVladwithSamePlayBook].......SecondCategory:TakingMeasureofPutin'sOld/NewFriendsandOld/New...
Subject:SUNMORNING/EST[NOTSO]FUNNIES....FirstCategory:ImagingPutin[Putin'sVictoryLapPutinbytheNumbersPeterPon
Vlad'sRU,TrumpandVladwithSamePlayBook].......SecondCategory:TakingMeasureofPutin'sOld/NewFriendsandOld/NewEnemies
[Libya,Cyprus,Indiavs.Ukes,SyriaOpposition,TurksandNowSaudis]
THEFIRSTCATEGORY........'AIR(WAVES)'WAR......IT'SALL'IMAGING,IMAGING,IMAGING'
From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Subject:PutinsVictoryLap|TheNationalInterest[ED:NIckGvosdev:ShillingforPutinAgain!!Theyletthisguyteachat
Annapolis????]
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/putins-victory-lap-14670
FromSyriaandUkrainetoDonaldTrump,theRussianpresidentassesses2015inamarathonpressconference.
Nikolas K. Gvosdev
December18,2015
inShare6
PresidentVladimirPutinengagedinhistraditionalend-of-yearmarathonpressconferencethisweekwithsome1,300
journalistsattendinginMoscow.Asishiswont,PutinusedtheeventtoreassureRussiansthatdespitethehardshipsofthe
lastyear,theeconomyhasturnedacorner,pensionerswillbetakencareof,subsidieswillbemadeavailabletoRussian
farmersandlow-incomefamilieswillbeshieldedfromthecontinuingriseinutilitycosts.Itispartofhisefforttorenew
Russia'straditionalsocialcontract:theleadershipbeinggivenarelativelyfreemandatetorunthecountryinreturnfor
guaranteeingsocialstabilityandareasonablemodicumofprosperity.Heissignalingthathecancontinuetofulfillhisendof
thebargaindespitethehitstakenbytheRussianeconomyduetosanctionsandfallingenergyprices.
Butthisyear'spresseventwasalsoimportantforwhattheRussianleaderhadtosayaboutforeignpolicy.Whatissignificant
isthatPutin'scommentscomeintheaftermathoftwoverysignificantdevelopments.First,U.S.SecretaryofStateJohn
KerrytraveledtoMoscow,puttingthefinalnailsinthecoffinoftheObamaadministration'sinsistencethatRussiaremains
"isolated"becauseofitsactionsinUkraineandSyria.Inthecourseofthelastyear,Putinhassuccessfullyre-insertedhimself
asanindispensablefigureinglobalpoliticsandRussiaasapowerwhichcannotbeignoredorsidelined.Moreover,Kerry
madecommentswhichsuggestthatU.S.policyonSyria,whichforthepastfouryearshasbeencharacterizedbyanon-
negotiabledemandthatBasharal-Assad"mustgo,"isopenformodification.KerrystatedthatU.S.goalsinSyriadonot
include"regimechange"perseand,echoinglanguageusedbytheRussiansinthepast,notedthatSyriansmustdecidetheir
ownfuturewhilestillincludingthecaveatthattheUnitedStatesdoesnotbelievethatAssadhasanyfutureinapost-
conflictSyria.AndbeforeKerryhadarrived,theKremlinwasalsogratifiedbythedecisionofItalianPrimeMinisterMatteo
RenzitoblocktheautomaticextensionofEUsanctionsagainstRussia,forcingthemtobeplacedontheagendaofEU
leaders.Whilethesanctionsarelikelytoberenewedthistime,Renzi'sactionssignaledthatanumberofEuropeanstatesare
growingtiredofthesanctionsandarelookingforwaystomodifyorremovesanctionsaltogetherin2016.
Thus,inhisremarks,PutinofferedseveralolivebranchestotheWest,includingacontinuedsearchforcooperationinthe
fightagainstterroristorganizationsintheMiddleEastwhichtheKremlinviewsasitsbestoptionforitsrehabilitationafter
theUkrainecrisisandthefirst(iflimited)acknowledgmentsthatthereareRussiansamongtheseparatistsinEastern
Ukraine,butstillfallingshortofadmittingaformal,officialmilitarypresenceonUkrainiansoil.Moreover,theattemptto
shiftsomeoftheblamefordelaysandproblemsinimplementingtheMinsk-2ceasefireplantotheUkrainiansideismeantto
capitalizeongrowingsignsofUkrainefatigueinWesterncapitalswiththeapparentslowpaceofreforms.Readingbetween
thelines,PutinseemstobesignalingawillingnesstofindacompromiseonUkrainethattheWestcanlivewith,whiletrying
tocreatethebasisforclosercooperationoverSyriaifthestickyquestionofAssad'simmediatefuturecanbetakenoffthe
table.ThatMoscowmightbeabletolivewithoutAssadinpoweroverthelongtermwashintedatincommentsthatthe
scaleandscopeoftheRussianmilitaryinterventioninSyria,andtheuseofnavalassetsandairpowerbasedonRussiansoil,
showsthatRussiadoesnotnecessarilyneedtheSyrianfacilitiesinordertobeabletoprojectpowerintheregion.
TheverypublicdigatTurkeyandthesuggestionthattherecentshoot-downofaRussianplanebyTurkishaircraftwasan
attemptbyAnkaratocurryfavorwiththeUnitedStatespointstoPutin'sapparentwillingnesstothrowawayallofthe
workthathasbeendonetobuilduptheRussia-Turkeyrelationshipoverthelastseveralyears.Thepersonalrelationship
betweenPutinandRecepTayyipErdogan,Turkey'spresident,seemsrupturedbeyondrepairthisdespiteErdogan's
previouswarmtieswiththeRussianleader(includingErdogansattendanceatthe2014SochiWinterOlympicGames)anda
sidelinesummitattheG-20inAntalyalastmonththatseemedtopresageawarminginties.Thisnewhostilitysuggestsnot
onlythedeeppersonalaffrontPutinfeelsfortheshoot-down,butanassessmentthatbetweentheapparentKerrybackdown
onAssad,whomTurkeywantstoseego,andthemovingforwardoftheexpansionoftheNordStreampipeline,which
removestheeconomicandsecurityrationalefortheTurkishStream,RussiacanaffordtotakeaharderlinewithAnkara.
Ofcourse,thecommentswhichhavedrawnthemostattentionarePutin'sendorsementofthecandidacyofDonaldTrump.
WhilepiouslyproclaimingthatRussiadoesnotseektointerveneinAmericandomesticpolitics,andwouldfindawayto
workwithanyonewhoiselectednextyear,Putindescribedthereal-estatemogulandcurrentRepublicanfront-runnerasan
"outstandingman"and"unquestionablytalented"amarkedchangefromotherleaderswhohavebeenhighlycriticaland
disparagingofTrump.(Trumprespondedpositivelytothoseremarksseveralhourslater,citingPutinasarespectedworld
leaderthathecandobusinesswith.)
IsPutinhavingfunwiththeU.S.mediabyall-but-endorsingTrumpasthe"absoluteleader"inthepollsthatthisisatrolling
effortofextraordinarymagnitudebysuggestingthatwhattheUnitedStatesneedsisaPutin-styleadministrationinoffice?Is
thisPutin'seffortstostrikebackatbeingtheleading"badguy"thatmostotherU.S.presidentialcandidateshaveidentified
andpromisedtocontain,slapdownorputinhisplace?Orishesuggestingthatatrue"reset"canonlyoccurwithaDonald
TrumpintheOvalOffice?
WhetherornotPutinbelieves(orisbeingfedanalysis)thatTrumpcouldwinthepresidency,Putin'spraiseofTrumpreflects
hiscontemptofmuchoftheU.S.politicalestablishment.HehasdealtwithtwoU.S.presidentswhopromisedfundamental
changesintheU.S.-Russiarelationshipbutwho,fromhisperspective,wereunwillingtoinvestseriouspoliticalcapitaland
risktheireofestablishedinterestgroupstomakerealchangesandwhoinsteadwerealwaystryingtosquarethecircle
betweenengagingRussiaandcontinuingtosupporttheexpansionofEuro-Atlanticinstitutionseastward.ThepraiseofTrump
signalsPutin'sinterestinfindingWesternleaderswhowillcometothetabletobargainingoodnineteenth-centurystyle,
tradingspheresofinfluenceforcooperation.Italsosuggeststhathedoesnottaketherestofthepresidentialfieldboth
DemocratsandRepublicansallthatseriously.
ThejokemaybeonPutinifhisgamblesfailandtheeconomyworsens.Bythetimeofnextyear'sgalaevent,we'llsee
whetherhispredictionofaTrumpvictoryhasbeenborneoutbyeventsandwhetherwhoeverwillsucceedBarackObama
intheWhiteHousewillconsiderengagingPutinalongtheTrumpline.
NikolasGvosdevisacontributingeditoratTheNationalInterestandco-authorofRussianForeignPolicy:Vectors,Sectors
andInterests(CQPress,2013).Theviewsexpressedherearehisown.
Image:WikimediaCommons/Kremlin.ru.
Subject:3yearsofPutin-HowRussiahaschangedinthe3yearssincesanctionscameintopower[ED:TheReality......NumbersDon't
Lie]
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
PutinPostSanctions
Subject:UnderstandingmodernRussia?WhyEuropeanleadersshouldreadPeterPomerantsev[ED:GettingPutinRight]
UnderstandingmodernRussia?WhyEuropeanleadersshould
readPeterPomerantsev
http://www.ecfr.eu/article/understanding_modern_russia_why_european_leaders_should_read_peter_pomerant#.VnWV-
5DQ-5I.twitter
VladislavSurkov,thedemiurgeoftheKremlin,surprisesusallbyenteringfrombehindtheuniversityauditorium,beforetakingthestageinfrontofan
audiencepackedwithdoctoratestudents,professors,journalistsandpoliticians.Heiswearingawhitet-shirtandleatherjacket,fallinghalfway
betweenJoyDivisionandacommissarfromthe30s.Iamtheauthor,oroneoftheauthors,ofthenewRussiansystem.MyportfolioattheKremlin
andingovernmenthasincludedideology,media,politicalparties,religion,modernisation,innovation,foreignrelations,and...herehepausesand
smilesmodernart.Hedecidesnotmakeaspeech,butinsteadinvitestheaudiencetoposequestionsandhaveanopendiscussionwithhim.After
thefirstquestion,hetalksforalmost45minutes,leavinghardlyanytimeforothers.Itsademonstrationofhispoliticalsysteminminiature:democratic
rhetoricandundemocraticintent.
InNothingIsTrueandEverythingIsPossible:AdventuresinModernRussia,abrilliantandattimesappallingportrayaloftodaysRussianelites,
PeterPomerantsevintroducesSurkov.Oftenlurkingintheshadows,SurkovhascontributedtothePutingovernmentsconsolidationofpowerthrough
Hollywood-stylemediastuntsandthroughwhatinthepost-Sovietspaceisknownaspoliticaltechnology.
Showbiz,politicaltechnologyandoldfashionedauthoritarianism
ThroughhisownforayintothemedialandscapeofRussia,PomerantsevexplainshowthenewKremlin,havinggainedcontroloftelevisionnetworks,
hasshowngreatskillincombiningWestern-styleentertainmentwithauthoritarianismandmoreorlesssubtlepropaganda.ThemistakeoftheTVinthe
USSR-beingboringisnowavoidedatallcosts.Alwayscentrestage,thefigureofthepresidentisinconstantmetamorphosis,likeanactor.Putin
switchesbetweentherolesofsoldier,lover,bare-chestedhunter,businessman,spy,tsar,superman.Surkovwouldmeetonaweeklybasiswiththe
directorsofthemainchannels,decidingwhotoattackandwhotodefendwhichpoliticalleaderwouldenjoyairtimeandwhowouldnot.Thescreen
relentlesslydepictsthepresidentasthedoyenofstabilityandefficiencyincontrasttothepresidentialchaosofthe90s,andrepeatedlyputsout
messagesaboutthemandtheenemy,meaningoppositionleaders,liberals,journalists,theWest,theUnitedStatesandchurki(apejorativeterm
forpeoplefromtheCaucusesandCentralAsia,thatassociatesthemwithterrorismandblackwidows).Inaway,thisisnotdissimilartotherhetoric
pumpedoutbyFoxNewsandotherchannels,whichthroughoutthenever-endingWaronTerrorhavedisseminatedthelibellousopinionsofDonald
Trumpandotherslikehim-dressingupxenophobia,defamationandthestigmatisationofminoritiesasnormality.
Pomerantsevdescribeshowthispublicdiscourse,alongwiththeKremlinsgrowingparanoiaregardingfifthcolumns,gotfiercerastheneedtocreate
panicandfearbecamegreater,turningoffrationality.Inparallel,theKremlininvestedintheinfrastructuretodisseminateitsownreadingsof
internationalrelations,presentedasRussiasview,throughformatsandplatformswhichareWesterninappearance,suchasRussiaToday.
Politicaltechnologyisameansofappropriatingpracticallyallformsofpoliticaldiscoursepossible,theirideologiesandmovements,givingthem
visibilityorridiculinganddemonisingthem,accordingtothecircumstances.PeoplelikeSurkovmayactivelysupportorcreateNGOs,partiesand
liberalleadersseeminglycriticaloftheKremlin(aslongasthatcriticismislimited),andthenext,putthemunderfirefromultranationalistforcesand
orthodoxfundamentalists.Oldertraditionsofco-optingforcesthatopposetheregimeinpower,presentingthemasalivethreat,areblendedwith
twenty-firstcenturymediatechnologyandPRstrategies-somethingwhichhasworkedwellinRussianpropagandaaboutUkrainesNazis.The
dissentingvoicesincivilsocietyandpoliticalforcesarestigmatised,notonlyasanti-Russianandtraitors,but,inPomerantsevswords,asMuscovite
hipstersoutoftouchwithordinaryRussians,concernedonlybymarginalissuessuchasfreedomsorLGBTrights.
Totopthisoff,mediacampaignsandtheuseofpoliticaltechnologyarecombinedwithtraditionalrepressiveaction,reminiscentofpasttimes.Hence,
decisionstoclassifycivilsocietyorganisationsasundesirableorforeignagents,restrictingtheiractivitiestoaminimumshamtrials,andthe
rejectionofthejurisdictionoftheEuropeanCourtofHumanRights.
ButthenoveltyofthisbrandofauthoritarianismistocombinesheerrepressionwithasubtleuseofmodernWesternstrategiesofmediaandPRforthe
controlofthemasses.Realityisdeconstructedandanillusioncreatedofapluralpublicspace-aspacethatisalsoattractiveforpeopleoutside
Russia,scepticaltowardstheEU,WashingtonandtheWesteventhoughthisisfarfromthecase.
Russlandverstehersgetitwrong:thetheatreofabsurdandzomboyashschiks
InourpartofEuropeandincountriessuchasFrance,Spain,GermanyorItaly,acommonmessageinanypoliticaldebateaboutRussia,Ukraineor
thepost-SovietspaceingeneralistheimportanceofunderstandingRussiaandtheRussianmentality.Ittendstobeaccompaniedwithlearned
nodstotheSlavicworld,thetsars,theSovietUnionandreferencestoDostoyevskyandTolstoy.Inthisvein,theRusslandversteherstendtocross
thelinebetweenexplainingeventssuchastheannexationofCrimea,ortherestrictionsonfreedominRussia,andjustifyingthem.
ClassicslikeDostoyevskyorTolstoycanbeusefultounderstandtheculturalsubstrataofmanyRussiansandtheirtakeonexistence.Likewise,
RussianforeignpolicyinthetsaristperiodandtheUSSRcanshedsomelightontodaysgeopoliticaltensionsandtheRussianperspectiveinits
backyard.ButneitherhistorynorgeopoliticsalonecanexplaintodaysRussia.ThesystemdescribedbyPomerantsevmightbeevenmoreusefulfor
ourpoliticaldecision-makerswhenitcomestounderstandingcontemporaryRussiaand,especially,thenatureofitselitesandthepowercirclein
question.
AsPomerantsevargues,itisdifficulttoappreciatethebrutalimpactthattheconsecutivedestructionofvariouspoliticalmodelsfromtheUSSR
toperestroikaorneoliberalismhasonasocietyanditselites.TodaysRussianelitesoftencombinenihilism,aNietzschian
characterofbermenschabovemoralcodes,andextremematerialism.ProminentproKremlinpoliticiansvituperateagainsttheWestfromthe
Duma,sometimesthreateninganucleararmageddonorridiculingGayeuropa,whilesendingtheirchildrentoOxbridgeorCostaBrava.Concepts
likeMotherRussiaandtheRussianworld(russkiymir)doubtlessservetomobilisethegeneralpopulationnowandthen,whoasmany
Westerners-areneedfulofcollectivelandmarksintimesofuncertainty,penuryandmoralvacuum.Buttheseideasmostlyoperateasinstrumentsof
powerwieldedbyadominantclassinordertodirectattentionawayfrommoreimmediateproblemsandbasicgovernanceshortcomings.
Deepdown,thereisanongoingerosionofmorality,somethingwhichnosocietyisimmunefrom,whetherduetothelegaciesoftotalitarianismand
conflict,thepoisonousrhetoricofleaders,orendemicimpunity.AcasecanalsobemadeagainstthatUSintoxicatedbyapoliticsoffearwhich
justifiestortureandvotesinCongressagainsttheacceptanceofSyrianrefugees.OrthinkofthesurrealbubbleofshrinkingcosmopolitanTelAviv,
wherehandsomeyouthsworkingoutbythebeachjustafewmilesfromthedramaticrealityofoccupationandviolentdeath.ThisRussiaofspinand
showbizmakesapoliticalsystemandwayoflifeforitsrulersoutofthetheatreofthelieandtheabsurd(liketheweatherforecastforbombingSyria).
Itprefersdevotedzomboyashchiks(zombies)topoliticallyactivecitizens.
AnotherRussia?
Baraviolentrevolutionarypoliticalchange(and,probably,supportfromwithinthesystem,asinothercases),itisperhapsutopicthinkingtoconceive
ofanypossibilityofrevertingtheKremlinssystemsandprocessesofcollectiveregressionwhetherbywell-intentionedexternalactorsorcommitted
localactivists.Atleastfromoutsideofthecircleofpowerwhichconstructsrealityandshapesthesocialorder.
Yet,attimes,theredoesexistanotherRussia,which,whenitmanagestomakeitsvoiceheard,harshlyrefutesmanyargumentsofthe
RusslandverstehersandPutinsupporters.ThisistheRussiaofyoungleaderssuchasIlyaYashin,criticalofthewarinUkraine,whoseRPR-
PARNASpartysufferedallkindsofboycottsinSeptembersregionalelections.ItcertainlywastheRussiaofBorisNemtsovorAnnaPolitkovskaya.
OreventheRussiaofthosethousandsofMoscowcitizenswhotooktothestreetsinlate2011,creatinghugeanxietyinthehallsofpower.
TheRussianquestionandthecountrysassimilationintheEuro-AtlanticspacewillcontinuewithorwithoutPutin.ButthefutureofRussiaasitis
shouldbeaconcernforall.WithoutwishingtolapseintoromanticidealismorManicheanvisions,thisotherRussiaor,rather,otherRussiaswould
probablybeclosertoEurope,pronetocooperationandfriendlierrelationswiththeneighbours.Thesadfacttodayisthatalargepartofthatother
Russiachoosesexile.
Andyetmaybebecauseofagenerationalfactororgenuinerespectforthosedissentingvoicesagainstahegemonicmodel(whereprotestingmeans
riskingitall)-itisinevitabletofeelmoreempathytowardsPussyRiot,PetrPavlensky,theiconoclastartist,orNGOslikeMemorial,thanblind
nostalgiaaboutanidealisedRussia(nottomentionanequallyidealisedUSSR)whichnolongerexists.
IfthatotherRussiaendsupdisappearingandthosevoicesarelefttowither,thefutureofthisOrwellianRussiawheretheworldisturnedonitshead,
willnotendearitsneighboursorEurope.Butaboveallitdoesnotbodewellatallforthepeoplewhoactuallylivethere.
*TranslationbyJamesBadcock.
http://www.ecfr.eu/article/understanding_modern_russia_why_european_leaders_should_read_peter_pomerant#.VnWV-5DQ-5I.twitter
Subject:ForMr.TrumpandMr.Putin,abondofpower-hungriness,vulgarityandcynicism
ForMr.TrumpandMr.Putin,abondofpowerhungriness,vulgarityandcynicism
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/formrtrumpandmrputinabondofpowerhungrinessvulgarityand
cynicism/2015/12/19/7c4401b0a5b511e5b53d972e2751f433_story.html
TheinsidetrackonWashingtonpolitics.
FORDONALDTrump,nothingmeritsrespectmorethanhighpollnumbers,includinghisown,whichtheRepublicanpresidentialhopeful
equateswithstrength,intelligenceandsuccess.InMr.Trumpsworldview,thatsimplisticformulationisreasonalonetoaccorddeference
andesteemtoVladimirPutinnevermindthattheRussianpresidentisanautocratwhosepopularityathomerestsinnosmallmeasure
onhavingsilencedcriticswhoseviews,weretheyallowedapublicairing,mightputacrimpinhisapprovalrating.
Forhispart,Mr.Putin,whosecynicismandsnarlingvulgarityaremirroredinMr.Trumpsownpoliticaloratory,seesintheU.S.mogula
manafterhisownheart.FortheRussianpresident,whooncerecommendedthatajournalistgetcircumcised,Mr.Trumpssuggestionthat
FoxNewssMegynKellywasmenstruatingwhenshechallengedhimmusthaveseemedabonmot,ifalittletoosubtlefortheRussians
taste.DittoMr.Trumpsindulgenceandoutrightapprovalofhissupportersuseofviolence.
TheirmutualadmirationsocietygotapublicairingthisweekwhentheRussianleaderconfessedhisadmirationforMr.Trump(avery
brightandtalentedmanandanabsoluteleaderinthepresidentialrace)andMr.Trumpimmediatelyreturnedthefavor,sayinghewas
greatlyhonoredbyMr.Putinspraise.
SowhatifMr.PutinhasorderedthekillingofjournalistsandtheinvasionofCrimea,Mr.TrumpsaidFriday,inresponsetoaquestionfrom
MSNBCsJoeScarborough,onMorningJoe.Hesrunninghiscountry,andatleasthesaleader,saidMr.Trump.Unlikewhatwehave
inthiscountry.
Whatthetwomenshare,andrecognizeineachother,goesbeyondstrongpollingnumbers,anaffinityforincendiarylanguageanda
contemptforthose(withPresidentObamaleadingthelist)theyregardasweak.Whatreallyattractsthemisacommonworldviewin
whichmoneytalksanddemocraticnormsareforsuckers.
MuchasMr.Putinhasmuzzledfreeexpressioninthemedia,marginalizedpoliticalopponentsandscrappedcontestedelections,
Mr.TrumphasblithelyendorsedshuttingdownpartsoftheInternet,praisedPresidentFranklinD.RooseveltforinterningJapanese
AmericansduringWorldWarIIandopenlycontemplatedregisteringMuslimsinAmerica.
WhereMr.Putinseescorruptionasthenorm,Mr.Trumpsimilarlyregardspublicserviceasamarketplaceinwhichanyoneandeveryone
canbebought.Igivetoeverybody,Mr.TrumptoldaNewHampshireaudienceinthesummer.TheydowhateverIwant.Itstrue.
Granted,Mr.Trump,hisrhetoricnotwithstanding,ishardlyinMr.Putinsleagueasavicioustyrant.Mr.Trumpscriticsaresubjectedonly
tothevenomofhisinsults;Mr.Putinshaveawayofendingupinprison,orshottodeathinthestreet.
ButbelievetheAmericantycoonwhenhesaysthatMr.Putinisamanwithwhomhewouldgetalong,andwho,intermsof
leadership,hesgettinganA.Thefeelingismutual,andrevealing.
Readmoreaboutthistopic:
DavidIgnatius:IsDonaldTrumpanAmericanPutin?
GeorgeF.Will:TrumpsimmigrationplancouldspelldoomfortheGOP
EugeneRobinson:TheGOPsscariestcandidate
SECOND'VLAD'CATEGORY:"HELPINGFRIENDS[SuddenlyforwardtoLibyaandCyprusaswellasbackto
India].....HOUNDINGENEMIES[Ukrainians,theSyrianOpposition,theTurksandsoontheSaudis]'.....ONE
HECKOFAGUY!!!"
Subject:LibyaSeeksRussia'sHelpinBattlingTerrorism(OhBOYIsensedthiswascoming!!!-WD)
LibyaSeeksRussiasHelpinBattlingTerrorism
11:5119.12.2015
http://sputniknews.com/world/20151219/1032011120/libya-russia-help-terrorism
.html
TheLibyanArmedForces'CommanderBrigadierGeneralKhalifaHafterhasvoicedhiscountry'sreadiness
tocooperatewithRussiainfightingterrorism,accordingtotheIraniannewsagencyFARS.
"WewelcomesupportfromRussiainfightingterrorism,"theagencyquotesHafterastellingreportersafte
hismeetingwithUnitedNationsSupportMissioninLibya(UNSMIL)ChiefMartinKoblerinthecityofMarj,
NortheasternLibya.
WillSyriaRepeattheFateofLibya,WhichNoLongerExists?ThemilitaryleaderassuredthatifRussia
proposesaplanforfightingterrorisminLibya,TripoliwillcooperatewithMoscow,addingthatRussians
areseriousin[the]fightagainstterrorists.
Thecountry'scapitalTripoli,iscontrolledbyapoliticalfaction,knownastheGeneralNationalCongress,
whichwassetupafteranarmedgroupcalledLibyaDawnseizedthecapital,Tripoli,lastsummer.
OnThursday,rivalLibyanpoliticianssignedadealonaunitygovernmentdespiteoppositiononbothsides,
inwhattheUnitedNationsdescribedasa"firststep"towardsendingthecrisis.
Worldpowershaveurgedthewarringfactionstobreakapoliticaldeadlockthathasallowedjihadistsand
people-smugglerstoflourish.Meanwhile,thejihadistgroupDaesh(alsoknownasISIL/ISIS)hasincreasedits
presenceintheLibyanMediterraneancityofSirte,havingapparentlyestablisheditsnewbasethere,whereit
cangenerateoilrevenueandplanterrorattacks.
From:JACKE
Subject:SyriagivesRFtheEasternMedCyprusopensuptheWesternMedtoRU
http://cyprus-mail.com/2015/12/20/poll-majority-would-favour-granting-military-facilities-to-russia/
Home
Cyprus
Poll:majoritywouldfavourgrantingmilitaryfacilitiestoRussia(Update:
addsEDEKvindication)
DECEMBER20TH,2015CYPRUS39COMMENTS
CYPRUS
ARussianSukhoiSu-24fighterjettakesofffromtheHmeymimairbasenearLatakia,Syria,
RELATEDPOST...
Chineseminister'svisitaimstoboosttieswithCyprus
CypruspositionsitselfonEU-Turkeytalks
SuspectedRussianwarplaneskillscoresinSyriancity-rescueworkers
AlmostthreeoutoffourCypriotswouldwelcometheprovisionofmilitaryfacilitiestoRussiabyCyprus,accordingtoapollconductedforSimerini
newspaperandpublishedonSunday.
OverhalfofthosepolledislandwideonDecember16and17,saidthegovernmentshouldseekclosertieswithMoscow.
TheissueofofferingmilitaryfacilitiestoRussiacameupearlierthismonthwhentheRussianambassadorsaidthematterwasbeingdiscussedby
NicosiaandMoscowbutthiswaslaterdeniedbytheforeignministriesofbothcountries.Russiaistobeofferedhumanitarianandrefuellingfacilities
suchasthosealreadygiventoFranceandGermany.
AccordingtotheSimerinipoll,carriedoutbytheUniversityofNicosia,42percentsaidthatCyprusshouldhaveequallycloserelationswiththeUS
andwithRussia.
SevenoutoftenCypriotswereopentoofferingmilitaryfacilitiestoRussianforcesfightingagainstterrorism,with37percentgoingasfarassaying
Cyprusshouldgivethemabase.
ThreeoutoffivesaidtheywouldfeelsaferiftherewasaRussianmilitarypresenceontheisland.Twooutoffivesaidtheyfeellesssafeinrecent
monthssinceBritainbeganbombingtheIslamicStateinSyriafromitsRAFbaseinCyprus.
SocialistEDEK,whichhasbeenpushingthegovernment,alongwiththeCitizensAlliancetograntRussiamilitaryfacilities,saidonSundaythepoll
hadvindicateditspositionontheissue.InthefightagainstterrorismandtheillegalIslamicstateofISISwemustofferthesamemilitaryfacilitiesasan
allyofFranceandofRussia,thepartysaid.
Subject:India-Russiaeyenuclear,helicopterdeals[HeadingbacktooldColdWarAlignments?India-RU????AgainsttheWest?]
India-Russiaeyenuclear,helicopterdeals
Dec18,2015,10.33PM|Source:Reuters
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/current-affairs/india-russia-eye-nuclear-helicopter-deals_4654261.html
PrimeMinisterNarendraModiisexpectedtopromotedealsforRussiannuclearreactorsandmilitaryhelicoptersworthbillionsofdollarsonatripto
Moscownextweek,attractedbypromisestotransfertechnologythatWesternnationshavebeenslowtomake.
RussiaandIndiawillmanufacture200Kamov-226Thelicoptersinajointventure,aRussianandanIndiangovernmentofficialsaid,inthefirstbigstep
forModi'scampaigntobuildadomesticindustrialbaseandreducethemilitary'sdependenceonexpensiveimports.
Modi,whoheadsforMoscowonDec.23,willalsoofferRussiaasiteinAndhraPradeshtobuildsixnuclearreactorsof1,200megawatts(MW)
each,thesamesourcesadded.
ThatisinadditiontothesixRussiaisconstructinginneighbouringTamilNadu,saidtheofficials,whospokeonconditionofanonymitybecausethey
werenotauthorisedtospeaktothepress.
NewDelhihasturnedtoRussiaasU.S.firmGeneralElectricandWestinghouse,aU.S.-basedunitofJapan'sToshiba,arestillweighinganentryinto
India'snuclearenergysectorbecauseofalawthatmakesreactorsuppliersliableincaseofanaccident.
Modi's"Make-in-India"pushforamilitarythathasbeentheworld'sbiggestimporterforthelastfouryearshasalsomadelittleheadway,with
negotiationsstalledoverissuesincludingtechnologytransferandthelocalassemblyofequipment.
ForRussia,Indiaoffersanalternative,fast-growingoutletforitsexportsassanctionsimposedbytheWestsqueezetheeconomy.
"Whileothersaremakingpromises,RussiaismovingforwardwiththeMake-in-Indiaprogramme,"theRussiangovernmentsourcesaid.
RUSSIALETDOMINANCESLIP
Moscow,whichhasmaintainedclosetieswithIndiasincetheColdWar,hasinrecentyearsslippedbehindtheUnitedStatesandIsraelinsecuring
ordersintheIndiandefencemarket,estimatedtobeworth$130billionoverthenextsevenyears.
NowRussianPresidentVladimirPutinisbankingonIndia'sdrivetomanufactureathometoregainmarketshare.
"TheobjectiveisthatwhateverwedowithRussia,thatwillhavea'Make-in-India'component,"saidAmitabhKant,thetopIndianbureaucratleading
thepushtoturnIndiaintoaglobalmanufacturingbase.
Underaninter-governmentagreementtobesignedduringModi'strip,Moscowwillsetupaproductionlineforthelighthelicoptersthatwillsupplythe
IndianmilitarybutalsoeventuallyRussia,theRussianofficialsaid.
India'sstate-runHindustanAeronauticsandAnilAmbani'sRelianceDefenceareintherunningaslocalpartnersforthedealforthe200twin-engined
helicopters,estimatedat$1billion,toreplaceIndia'sageingfleetofCheetahandChetakhelicopters.
"ThechoiceoftheIndianpartnerhasbeenlefttotheIndiangovernment.Wewillworkwithanyonethegovernmentnominates,"theofficialsaid.
IndiaisalsoturningtoRussiatosecureoverseasenergyassetstohelpfuelitseconomy.
IndianOilCorpandOilIndia,bothstate-owned,areintalkswithRussia'sRosnefttobuyuptoa29percentstakeinaSiberianoilproject,two
sourcessaidonFriday.
RUSSIAHASTHEADVANTAGE
ThehelicopterdealwouldbethefirstmajorcontractunderModi'sdrivetobuildweaponsathomethathasexcitedlocaldefencecompaniesbutfailed
todeliveranysignificanttenders.
AssomeIndianmanufacturerslooktoWesternfirmsforthetie-upsneededtobringintechnologyandbuildlocally,Relianceisforgingclosertieswith
Russiatojumpstartitsnascentbidtodevelopadefencebusinessfromscratch.
ARelianceexecutive,whoaskednottobenamed,saidnegotiationstowinthejointhelicopterventurewouldnotstartuntilthetwogovernmentshad
agreedthedeal.HindustanAeronauticsdidnotrespondtoarequestforcomment.
AsourceclosetoRosoboronexport,Russia'sstate-ownedarmsexporter,saidIndiawouldproduce140ofthechoppersandRussiatheremaining60.
Pre-contractworkisunderwayandthetwosidesexpecttoclarifytheagreementduringModi'svisit,thesourcesaid.
AnIndiangovernmentofficialconfirmedtheplantosignthehelicopterdealaswellastheproposedofferofAndhraPradeshasthelocationofthenext
setofreactorstobebuiltbyRussianstate-ownednuclearfirmRosatom.
Thetwosideshavenotgivenanyvalueforthedeal.RosatomspokesmanSergeyNovikovsaidtherewerenoplansyettosignanycontractsduring
Modi'svisit.
NandanUnnikrishnan,anexpertonIndia-RussiarelationsattheObserverResearchFoundation,saidthatdespiteNewDelhi'stilttowardstheWest
formilitaryhardwareinrecentyears,Russiaretainedanedgeinmanyareas.
"RussiahasadistinctadvantageovereveryoneinunderstandinghowIndianbureaucracyworks,giventheleveloftrustthatexistsintheIndian
establishmentvis-a-visRussia,"hesaid.
.html
From:JackE
Subject:SaudiArabiaBuys30UkrainianPlanesNamedAfterNotoriousNaziPuppet/AnotherSputnikInternationalStory[GotLovethe
RussianImagination.....andtheChutzpah:FirsttheUkrainians,thentheSyrianOpposition,thentheTurks,andnowtheSaudis,whoare
drivingdownthepricesofoilbelowthe35dollarmark]
http://m.sputniknews.com/business/20151219/1032018412/ukraine-saudi-aircraft-deal.html
Senttime: 12/19/201501:00:32PM
FW:[SATAFTERNOON/ESTITEMSTONOTE---RICHLODE][JohnD]Fwd:"RussianCONTRACTORSwerekilledinSyria,"WSJ,12/19-20,p.
Subject:
A8.....[MichaelG]TheRU-DE'Technolohiya'UsedtoCircumventSanctions........[BP]PolishreportonRussianwarcrimesinDo...
Sent:Saturday,December19,201512:03PM
Subject:Fwd:[SATAFTERNOON/ESTITEMSTONOTE---RICHLODE][JohnD]Fwd:"RussianCONTRACTORSwerekilledinSyria,"WSJ,
12/19-20,p.A8.....[MichaelG]TheRU-DE'Technolohiya'UsedtoCircumventSanctions........[BP]PolishreportonRussianwarcrimesinDo...
Subject:[SATAFTERNOON/ESTITEMSTONOTE---RICHLODE][JohnD]Fwd:"RussianCONTRACTORSwerekilledin
Syria,"WSJ,12/19-20,p.A8.....[MichaelG]TheRU-DE'Technolohiya'UsedtoCircumventSanctions........[BP]Polishreporton
RussianwarcrimesinDonbas......[AFU]HILARIOUS:"TRUMPNAMESPUTINASHISRUNNINGMATE"
[Enjoy/Disseminate]........[CliffK]TrumpSeekstoMakeRussiaGreatAgain.......[WD]Meduza:Putin'slies----6ofthemost
outrageousuntruthsfromyesterday'spressconference........
OnSat,Dec19,2015at1:40PM,JohnBDunlopwrote:
"RussianCONTRACTORSwerekilledinSyria,"WSJ,12/19-20,p.A8
AsmanyasnineRussiancontractorsdiedinOctoberwhenamortarroundhittheir
homebaseinWesternSyriaTheRussiangovernmenthasntacknowledgedtheir
deaths.TheRussianskilledinSyriabelongedtoaprivategroupcalledOSMThe
groupisknowninformallyasWagner,afterthenomdeguerreofitsleader,aformer
militaryintelligenceofficer
From:MichaelGonchar<mi.gor17@gmail.com>
Subject:Itmightbeinteresting
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,MykolaHryckowian<mykcusur@gmail.com>,wolodymyrzarycky
<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
ED:ARussian-GermanTale(inUkrainian):The'Technolohiya'ofCircumventingtheSanctions
http://gazeta.dt.ua/international/rosiysko-nimeckiy-nur-gesch-ft-abo-tehnologiya-obhodu-sankciy-_.html
--
Sincerelyyours
MichaelM.Gonchar
PresidentoftheCentreforGlobalStudies
STRATEGYXXI(Kyiv)
HeadoftheKyivInternationalEnergyQ-Club
+380444254162(KyivOffice)
+380989827278(UAGSM)
Office26,Shchekavytskastr.51
Kyiv,04071,Ukraine
http://geostrategy.org.ua
From:BorysPotapenko<boryspotapenko@gmail.com>
Subject:Fwd:PolishreportonRussianwarcrimesinDonbas
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,MykolaHryckowian<mykcusur@gmail.com>
Vlodko
Iknowyouaredown-under,butcanyougetthisouttoyouremaillist.[ED:NotinOzzie-landyet!!]
Borys
From:NykolaiBilaniuk<em826@ncf.ca>
Subject:PolishreportonRussianwarcrimesinDonbas
To:
RussianwarcrimesineasternUkrainein2014
http://www.donbasswarcrimes.org/report/
2015-12-1019:07
155pages
ReportinPDFFormatisavailablehere
http://www.donbasswarcrimes.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Russian_War_Crimes_in_Eastern_Ukraine_in_2014.pdf
Summary
ThisreportdescribeswarcrimesinthemeaningofinternationallawcommittedineasternandsouthernUkrainebysoldiersandofficialsoftheRussianFederationandby
thepro-Russianseparatistfighters.Thecrimesdocumentedhereinincludeunlawfuldeprivationoffreedom,physicalandmentaltortures,robberyandmurders.
Chapters1through3areofanintroductorynature.Theydescribethemethodologyusedbytheauthorsofthereportandpresentthecircumstancesinwhichthe
subsequentlydetailedcrimeswerecommitted.
Thelocationsandtypesofthecrimesthatwerecommittedaswellastheirperpetratorsaredescribedinchapter4.Theauthorsdiscussonlythosecrimestheyweretold
aboutbythevictimsthereofduringthefieldresearch.Morethan60interviewsweregatheredinthecourseofcollectingthematerialsforthisreport.Eachactiondescribed
inchapter4isconfirmedbyaquotefromthetestimonyofoneormorevictims.
Chapter4isdividedintosubchaptersthatcorrespondtoeachofthevenueswherewarcrimeshavebeencommitted,asidentifiedbytheauthorsofthereport.Mostof
thosevenuesareineasternUkraine,oneinCrimeaandoneintheterritoryoftheRussianFederation,wheretheRussianarmybroughtUkrainianprisonersofwar.
Chapter5isacatalogueofperpetratorsofthecrimeswhowerementionedinthetestimoniesofthevictims,includingashortoverviewandreferencestothedescription
ofthevenueswherethecrimeswerebeingcommitted,andpictures.
Thevictimsarenotmentionedbynamebutbyanassigned"C"(case)codenamesandnumbers.Anypersonaldatathatcouldbeusedtoidentifythevictimsindirectly
suchas,forexample,pictures,havebeenincludedonlyifaspecificvictimagreedtothedisclosureofhisorheridentityandspokefreelyinthemedia.
BasedonthedocumentaryevidencedescribedinthereportacommunicationwillbesubmittedtotheInternationalCriminalCourtinTheHague.
ThisreportistheresultofexaminationsconductedbyagroupofvolunteersvolunteerscommissionnedbyaMemberofthePolishParliament,MatgorzataGosiewska.
From:AndrewJFutey<ajfutey@ameritech.net>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at11:50AM
Subject:TRUMPNAMESPUTINASHISRUNNINGMATE
To:ZaryckyjWalter<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,HryckowianMykola<mykcusur@gmail.com>,PotapenkoBorys
<boryspotapenko@gmail.com>
AndrewJ.Futey
SentfrommyiPhone
From:"TrumpPutin2016"<info@johnkasich.com>
Date:December19,2015at10:28:35AMEST
To:<ajfutey@ameritech.net>
Reply-To:info@johnkasich.com
FORIMMEDIATERELEASE
CONTACT:KatrinaPeskov
TRUMPNAMESVLADIMIRPUTINASHISRUNNING
MATE
DuoPledgetoMakeTyrannyGreatAgain
Inaboldandvisionarymovecharacteristicofeverythinghe
does,todayterrificbillionaireDonaldTrumpnamedRussian
PresidentVladimirPutinashisrunningmateinthe2016U.S.
presidentialcampaign.TrumppledgedthattogetherwithPutin
hewouldMakeTyrannyGreatAgain.
TrumpsaidhepickedPutintobehisvicepresidentforhisstrong
approachtodealingwithdissent,flexibleapproachtodemocracy,
ruleoflawandtheConstitution,andhiswillingnesstoregularly
violateothercountriesterritorialintegrityinblatantviolationof
internationallawifitsuitedhisaims.
IthinkIwouldjustgetalongverywellwithVladimirPutin.I
justthinkso.Peoplesaywhatdoyoumean?Ijustthinkwe
would,saidTrump.
PutinreadilyacceptedTrumpsoffertoserveonhisticket,
saying,Hesareallybrilliantandtalentedperson,withouta
doubthestheabsoluteleaderinthepresidentialrace.
Trumpalsounveiledanewwebsiteforthedictatorial
duo:Trump-Putin2016.com,aswellastheTwitter
feed@TrumpPutin.
ConcernsthataPutinvicepresidencyis,well,illegalarejustsour
grapesfromdummiesnotsmartenoughtothinkofitfirst.
###
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From:CliffKincaid<kincaid@comcast.net>
Subject:TrumpSeekstoMakeRussiaGreatAgain
TrumpSeekstoMakeRussiaGreatAgain
ByCliffKincaid
http://www.aim.org/aim-column/trump-seeks-to-make-russia-great-again/
DonaldTrumphashiredanattractiveyoungwomantospinthenewsinhisfavor.Butitsadifficultjob,especiallywhenacold-blooded
killerendorsesyourcandidate.OnCNNonThursdaynight,KatrinaPiersonattemptedtosoftentheimpactoftheRussianpresidents
endorsementoforhighpraiseforTrumpforU.S.president.

Thiswasntanendorsement,shesaid.ThiswassimplyjustapowerfulmanrecognizingsomeoneintheUnitedStatesrunningfor
presidentwhoisalsoapowerfulman.Itwasnotanendorsement.
ThatpowerfulmaninRussiaisaformerKGBspywhoseregimeismurderinginnocentpeopleinUkraineandSyria.Itisthesame
regimewhoseterroristsinEasternUkraineshotdownaMalaysianairplaneandkilledalmost300people.
PutinsaidaboutTrump,Heisaveryflamboyantman,verytalented,nodoubtaboutthat...Heistheabsoluteleaderofthepresidential
race,asweseeittoday.Hesaysthathewantstomovetoanotherlevelofrelations,toadeeperlevelofrelationswithRussia.Howcan
wenotwelcomethat?Ofcoursewewelcomeit.
Itcertainlysoundedlikesomethingapproachinganendorsement.
TrumpprovidedastatementtoABCNewssaying,Itisalwaysagreathonortobesonicelycomplimentedbyamansohighly
respectedwithinhisowncountryandbeyond.Trumpwenton:IhavealwaysfeltthatRussiaandtheUnitedStatesshouldbeableto
workwellwitheachothertowardsdefeatingterrorismandrestoringworldpeace,nottomentiontradeandalloftheotherbenefits
derivedfrommutualrespect.
Highlyrespected?DoesTrumpnotunderstandhowtheKremlinmanipulatesthemediaandeliminatesoppositionpoliticalfiguresand
independentjournalists?
TrumpsreactionwasmoreembarrassingthanthenewsthatBolshevikBernieSanders,whoisrunningfortheDemocraticpresidential
nomination,hadhoneymoonedintheoldSovietUnion.BasedonhispraiseforPutin,whoranoneofthesuccessoragenciestothe
KGBbeforehebecameRussianpresident,Trumpmayturnouttobeanotherbillionairemorecomfortablewiththepoliciesofthe
DemocraticParty.
Duringthe2012campaign,inthefinalpresidentialdebate,RepublicanpresidentialcandidateMittRomneycalledRussiaageopolitical
foe.PresidentObamamockedhim,sayingRomneywasstuckinthepast.TheObama/HillaryClintonpolicywastheRussianre-set,
whichwassupposedtoincreasetradeandpoliticalcooperationwiththePutinregime.Instead,itsetthestageforPutinsinvasionof
Ukraine.Beforethat,in2008,RussiahadinvadeditsformerRepublicofGeorgia.
TrumpseemsnottounderstandhowtheObama/ClintonRussianpolicyfailed.
Inthecurrentcampaign,SenatorMarcoRubio(R-FL)hasbeenstronglycriticalofPutin,callinghimagangsterandanorganized
crimefigurewhocontrolsthegovernmentandalargeterritory.
Thatterritoryisgrowing.
Asabusinessmanhimself,TrumpshouldknowthatpropertyrightsarenotrespectedinRussiaandthatmostoftheimportantbusinessis
concentratedinthehandsofPutinsformerKGBassociatesandcronies.Thatmakeshiscommentsaboutdevelopingatrade
relationshipwithPutinevenmoreincomprehensible.
BusinessmanBillBrowder,whorananinvestmentfundinRussiacalledHermitageCapitalManagement,wasforcedtofleeRussiaafter
hisassetswerestolen.Hislawyer,SergeiMagnitsky,wastorturedandmurdered,andhisdeathhasbecomeaninternationalsymbolof
humanrightsviolationsinRussia.
TheevidenceshowsthatPutinandhisgroupofformerKGBofficersarelootingRussia,consolidatingtheirpower,andeliminating
throughtortureandmurderanyonewhogetsintheirway.Browdersbook,RedNotice,tellsthestoryindetail.Hiswebsite,Russian
Untouchables,namesthenamesoftheRussianofficialsinvolvedinthecase.
AfilmthatwasshownonDecember15attheNewseum,FromRussiawithCash,explainshowRussiangovernmentfiguresseekto
stealandlaundertheirmoneyabroadthroughrealestatetransactionsinvolvingshellcompanies.
PiersontoldCNNthatTrumpsacceptanceofthePutinendorsementwasmadeinthecontextoffightingterrorism,fightingISISinthe
MiddleEast.Shesaid,VladimirPutinhassteppedup.Manypeopledorespecthimforthat,includingAmericanswhomaynotlike
VladimirPutinbuttheylikethefactthathessteppingupandtakingactionagainstISIS.
PiersonisavictimoftheRussianpropagandaoperationsbeingwagedintheU.S.andothercountriesbysuchKremlinoutletsasRussia
Today(RT).
Putinhassteppeduptosavethelong-timeSoviet/RussianclientstateofSyria.Theotherguestontheshow,radiohostBenFerguson,
pointedout,PutinisproppingupAssad.Youshouldunderstandthat,soshouldDonaldTrump.ButTrumpapparentlydoesnot.
Whatsmore,theevidenceindicatesthatPutinsmilitaryhasbeentargetinganti-Assadpro-Westernrebelgroups,notISIS.Infact,
BritishForeignSecretaryPhilipHammondsayspro-AssadmilitarystrikeshaveallowedISIStoseekadvantageontheground.He
said,ThemajorityofRussianairstrikescontinuetotargetSyrianoppositionforces.
ISISitselfhasconfirmedinoneofitsownpublicationsthatRussiaismainlytargetingothergroups,declaringthatRussiaisbombingthe
alliesofAmericaandthatitsinterventioninSyriahasconfusedAmericananalysts,thinktanks,intelligence,andpolicy-makers.
Trumphastobeconsideredintheranksoftheconfused.
InthewakeofTrumpsgaffeduringtherecentdebate,whenhedemonstratedignoranceaboutthenucleartriad,hisacceptanceof
PutinsendorsementmayputthisbusinessmanintheranksofofficialRussiandupes.Ineffect,theleadingGOPpresidentialcandidate
hasbecomecaptivetoMoscowspropaganda.
OncethevotersunderstandhowTrumphasemergedasastoogeofPutininthepresidentialrace,hisdaysasaseriouscandidatewillbe
numbered.
Imlikeareallysmartperson,Trumphassaid.ThisisthecandidatewhoacceptspraisefromVladimirPutinandreturnsthe
compliment,butsayshedoesntwantJebBushsendorsementbecauseheisalowenergypersonandhedoesnotrepresentstrength,
powerandstamina,whicharequalitiesourcountrydesperatelyneeds.
Itmaybetoolate,consideringthedamagehiscommentshavecausedtohiscampaignandreputation,butTrumpoughttodevotesome
ofhisownenergytounderstandinghowtheKremliniswagingawarofpropagandaanddisinformationregardingsubjectslikethewars
inUkraineandSyria.HeshouldalsoreadbusinessmanBillBrowdersbookoncorruptioninRussia.
CliffKincaidistheDirectoroftheAIMCenterforInvestigativeJournalism,andcanbecontactedatcliff.kincaid@aim.org
---------Forwardedmessage----------
Subject:Putin'slies----6ofthemostoutrageousuntruthsfromyesterday'spressconference[Meduza]
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko
Putinslies
6ofthemostoutrageousuntruthsfromyesterdayspressconference
11:50,18DECEMBER2015MEDUZA
VladimirPutinspentthreehoursansweringjournalists'questionsyesterdayathisannualpress
conference.Severaltimesduringthatmarathon,heplayedfastandloosewithfactsand
statistics.Meduzahighlightssomeofthemostegregiousuntruths.
Cargotrucksandpassengervehiclespaythesamevehicletax.
InPutin'swords:Amotorvehicletaxisthesameforpassengercarsandtrucksweighing12tonnesor
more.[...]Expertssaythatduringaccelerationandbraking,12-tonnetrucksdomoredamagetotheroad
bedthancars.However,theypaythesameamount.Thisproposalseekstocreatealevelplayingfield
foralltypesoftransport.
Infact:Taxratesfortheownersoftrucksandcarsaredifferent.Bylaw,thefederalgovernmentonly
setstheframeworkforvehicletaxrates,butregionalofficialscanraiseordecreasetheserates.Ifyou
lookatthetaxratessetdownbyregionallaws,it'sclearthatpassengervehiclesandcargotruckspay
differenttaxes.Forexample,inSt.Petersburg,apassengercarbetween100and150horsepowerpays
35rubles,whiletrucksofthesamehorsepowerpay40rubles.Andsometimes,itsohappens,cargo
trucksactuallypaylowertaxesthanordinarycars.
Muscovitescanparkneartheirhomesforfreeandeveryoneissatisfied.
InPutin'swords:Andparkingisfreeforpeoplewholiveinthebuildingsnexttothesecarparks.I
canassureyouthatthecitizensconcerned,theMuscoviteswholivenearthesecarparks,aremorein
favorofthepolicythanagainstit.Thechargesapplytothosewhoarrivefromotherdistrictsorother
regions:fromtheMoscowsuburbsandsoon.
Infact:WillingMuscovitescanobtainaso-calledresidentialpermittoparkforfreeneartheirhomes.
Butthisbenefitappliesonlybetweenthehoursof8p.m.and8a.m.For24-hourparking,you'vegotto
pay3,000rubles($42)ayear.DespitePutin'sconfidencethatMuscovitesaremoreinfavorthan
againsttheparkingfees,arecentLevadaCentersurveyshowsthatonlyintheverycenterofMoscow
doesthepolicyenjoynarrowsupport(57percent),whereasresidentsinMoscow'soutskirtsopposethe
newfees76percentto15percent.Justthispastweek,moreover,roughly1,000demonstratorsgathered
indowntownMoscowtoprotesttheparkingfees,resultinginseveraldetentionsbypolice.
Tatarstancandecideforitselfwhattheheadofitslocalgovernmentiscalled"head"or"president."
InPutin'swords:AsforthepresidentofTatarstan,thereisasayinginRussia:Callmeapotbutheat
menot.ThisisTatarstansbusiness.Idonotthinkthatthisissuchasensitiveissueorthatitcouldhurt
nationalfeelings.YouknowthepeopleintheCaucasusalwaysreactvehementlytoallissuesrelatedto
theirnationalidentity.However,evenChechnyasaid:no,thecountryshouldhaveonlyonepresident,
andwewillnotcalltheheadoftherepublicthisway.ThiswasthechoiceoftheChechenpeople.We
willrespectthechoiceofthepeopleofTatarstan.Itisuptoyoutodecide,allright?
Infact:TheChechenpeopleplayednoroleindecidingwhattocallRamzanKadyrov.(Heusedtobe
therepublic'spresident,whereastodayheistherepublic'shead.)Therewasnoreferendum.The
ChechenparliamentmerelyrenamedKadyrov'spositionatKadyrov'sownrequest,whichwas
promptednotbythewillofthepeople,butKadyrov'sownwhim.(Hedecidedthatonlyonepersonin
Russiashouldbecalledpresident,inagestureofservilitytoPutin.)
TheTatarpeoplearealsounlikelytogetasayinwhattheirrepublic'sleaderiscalled.Thereisa
federallawcomingintoeffectonJanuary1,2016,thatdesignatestheleadersofRussianrepublicsas
headsandnothingmore.Atthispoint,onlythefederalgovernmentcanrollbackthisreform.
Russianofficialsdidn'tknowthatTurkeyopposesthebombingofSyrianTurkmen.
InPutin'swords:Yousee,IhadnotheardabouttheTurkomans(SyrianTurks)before.Iknewthat
TurkmenourTurkmenlivedinTurkmenistan,andsoIwasconfusedNobodytoldusaboutthem.
ButafterweindicatedourwillingnesstocooperateontheissuesthataresensitivetoTurkey,why
didn'ttheyphoneusviathecooperationchannelsbetweenourmilitariestosaythatduringour
discussionsweoverlookedacertainpartoftheborderwhereTurkeyhasvestedinterests.Theycould
haveexpressedtheirconcernsoraskedusnottohitcertainareas.Butnobodysaidanything.
Infact:There'snowaytheRussianauthoritiesdidn'tknowwhoSyrianTurkmenare.TheTurkmenare
anethnicgroupofTurkicheritage,andareconsideredtobethethirdlargestminorityinSyria.Turkey
hastraditionallysupportedtheTurkmen.SeveraldaysbeforeTurkeyshotdownaRussianbomber,
TurkishofficialssummonedtheRussianambassadorandformallyprotestedRussianairstrikesagainst
TurkmensettlementsinSyria.
Foreignersdon'twanttoadoptsickchildren.
InPutin'swords:HereshowwewillworkLetsstartfromthelastpartofyourquestion.Idlike
topointoutthataccordingtostatisticsthenumberofsickchildrenadoptedbyforeignersisfarbelow
thatofhealthyones.Noforeignerhaseverrushedtoadoptoursickchildren.Thisisstatistics.Solets
nothurrytochangethedecisionsthatwevealreadymade.Thisisthefirstthing.
Infact:Statistically,foreignersadoptmorehealthychildrenthansickordisabledchildren,butthisisa
misleadingwayoflookingatthephenomenon,giventhatadoptionsofhealthychildrenarealwaysmore
common,regardlessoffosterparents'origins.In2012,Russianandforeignparentsadopted9,169
children,ofwhomonly200weredisabled.Ofalladoptionsbyforeignparents,disabledchildrenwere
adopted6.6percentofthetime.AmongadoptionsbyRussianparents,however,thatfiguredropsto0.4
percent.Inrawnumbers,Russianfosterparentsadopted29childrenwithdisabilitiesin2012,while
foreignparentsadopted171suchchildren.OneineverytenchildrenadoptedbyAmericanparentsthat
yearwasdisabled.
Russiawon'tlevysanctionsagainstUkraine.
InPutin'swords:WearenotgoingtoimposeanysanctionsonUkraineIwantthistobeheard.We
arejustswitchingtoamost-favored-nationtreatmentintrade.WhichmeansconditionsforUkrainewill
notbeanyworsethanthoseforourotherforeignpartners.
Infact:BeginningonJanuary1,2016,RussiawilllevyagainstUkrainethesamesanctionsitcurrently
hasagainsttheEuropeanUnion,theUnitedStates,Canada,andothernationsthathaveplacedsanctions
onRussiaforitsinterventioninCrimea.TheRussiangovernmentdecidedonthesesanctionsagainst
UkrainebackinAugust2015.
http://meduza.io/en/feature/2015/12/18/putin-s-lies
Senttime: 12/20/201510:34:52AM
FW:SUNMORNING/EST[NOTSO]FUNNIES....FirstCategory:ImagingPutin[Putin'sVictoryLapPutinbytheNumbersPeterPonVlad'sRU,TrumpandVladwith
Subject:
SamePlayBook].......SecondCategory:TakingMeasureofPutin'sOld/NewFriendsandOld/New...
Subject:Fwd:SUNMORNING/EST[NOTSO]FUNNIES....FirstCategory:ImagingPutin[Putin'sVictoryLapPutinbytheNumbersPeterPonVlad'sRU,
TrumpandVladwithSamePlayBook].......SecondCategory:TakingMeasureofPutin'sOld/NewFriendsandOld/New...
Subject:SUNMORNING/EST[NOTSO]FUNNIES....FirstCategory:ImagingPutin[Putin'sVictoryLapPutinbytheNumbersPeterPon
Vlad'sRU,TrumpandVladwithSamePlayBook].......SecondCategory:TakingMeasureofPutin'sOld/NewFriendsandOld/NewEnemies
[Libya,Cyprus,Indiavs.Ukes,SyriaOpposition,TurksandNowSaudis]
THEFIRSTCATEGORY........'AIR(WAVES)'WAR......IT'SALL'IMAGING,IMAGING,IMAGING'
Subject:PutinsVictoryLap|TheNationalInterest[ED:NIckGvosdev:ShillingforPutinAgain!!Theyletthisguyteachat
Annapolis????]
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/putins-victory-lap-14670
FromSyriaandUkrainetoDonaldTrump,theRussianpresidentassesses2015inamarathonpressconference.
Nikolas K. Gvosdev
December18,2015
inShare6
PresidentVladimirPutinengagedinhistraditionalend-of-yearmarathonpressconferencethisweekwithsome1,300
journalistsattendinginMoscow.Asishiswont,PutinusedtheeventtoreassureRussiansthatdespitethehardshipsofthe
lastyear,theeconomyhasturnedacorner,pensionerswillbetakencareof,subsidieswillbemadeavailabletoRussian
farmersandlow-incomefamilieswillbeshieldedfromthecontinuingriseinutilitycosts.Itispartofhisefforttorenew
Russia'straditionalsocialcontract:theleadershipbeinggivenarelativelyfreemandatetorunthecountryinreturnfor
guaranteeingsocialstabilityandareasonablemodicumofprosperity.Heissignalingthathecancontinuetofulfillhisendof
thebargaindespitethehitstakenbytheRussianeconomyduetosanctionsandfallingenergyprices.
Butthisyear'spresseventwasalsoimportantforwhattheRussianleaderhadtosayaboutforeignpolicy.Whatissignificant
isthatPutin'scommentscomeintheaftermathoftwoverysignificantdevelopments.First,U.S.SecretaryofStateJohn
KerrytraveledtoMoscow,puttingthefinalnailsinthecoffinoftheObamaadministration'sinsistencethatRussiaremains
"isolated"becauseofitsactionsinUkraineandSyria.Inthecourseofthelastyear,Putinhassuccessfullyre-insertedhimself
asanindispensablefigureinglobalpoliticsandRussiaasapowerwhichcannotbeignoredorsidelined.Moreover,Kerry
madecommentswhichsuggestthatU.S.policyonSyria,whichforthepastfouryearshasbeencharacterizedbyanon-
negotiabledemandthatBasharal-Assad"mustgo,"isopenformodification.KerrystatedthatU.S.goalsinSyriadonot
include"regimechange"perseand,echoinglanguageusedbytheRussiansinthepast,notedthatSyriansmustdecidetheir
ownfuturewhilestillincludingthecaveatthattheUnitedStatesdoesnotbelievethatAssadhasanyfutureinapost-
conflictSyria.AndbeforeKerryhadarrived,theKremlinwasalsogratifiedbythedecisionofItalianPrimeMinisterMatteo
RenzitoblocktheautomaticextensionofEUsanctionsagainstRussia,forcingthemtobeplacedontheagendaofEU
leaders.Whilethesanctionsarelikelytoberenewedthistime,Renzi'sactionssignaledthatanumberofEuropeanstatesare
growingtiredofthesanctionsandarelookingforwaystomodifyorremovesanctionsaltogetherin2016.
Thus,inhisremarks,PutinofferedseveralolivebranchestotheWest,includingacontinuedsearchforcooperationinthe
fightagainstterroristorganizationsintheMiddleEastwhichtheKremlinviewsasitsbestoptionforitsrehabilitationafter
theUkrainecrisisandthefirst(iflimited)acknowledgmentsthatthereareRussiansamongtheseparatistsinEastern
Ukraine,butstillfallingshortofadmittingaformal,officialmilitarypresenceonUkrainiansoil.Moreover,theattemptto
shiftsomeoftheblamefordelaysandproblemsinimplementingtheMinsk-2ceasefireplantotheUkrainiansideismeantto
capitalizeongrowingsignsofUkrainefatigueinWesterncapitalswiththeapparentslowpaceofreforms.Readingbetween
thelines,PutinseemstobesignalingawillingnesstofindacompromiseonUkrainethattheWestcanlivewith,whiletrying
tocreatethebasisforclosercooperationoverSyriaifthestickyquestionofAssad'simmediatefuturecanbetakenoffthe
table.ThatMoscowmightbeabletolivewithoutAssadinpoweroverthelongtermwashintedatincommentsthatthe
scaleandscopeoftheRussianmilitaryinterventioninSyria,andtheuseofnavalassetsandairpowerbasedonRussiansoil,
showsthatRussiadoesnotnecessarilyneedtheSyrianfacilitiesinordertobeabletoprojectpowerintheregion.
TheverypublicdigatTurkeyandthesuggestionthattherecentshoot-downofaRussianplanebyTurkishaircraftwasan
attemptbyAnkaratocurryfavorwiththeUnitedStatespointstoPutin'sapparentwillingnesstothrowawayallofthe
workthathasbeendonetobuilduptheRussia-Turkeyrelationshipoverthelastseveralyears.Thepersonalrelationship
betweenPutinandRecepTayyipErdogan,Turkey'spresident,seemsrupturedbeyondrepairthisdespiteErdogan's
previouswarmtieswiththeRussianleader(includingErdogansattendanceatthe2014SochiWinterOlympicGames)anda
sidelinesummitattheG-20inAntalyalastmonththatseemedtopresageawarminginties.Thisnewhostilitysuggestsnot
onlythedeeppersonalaffrontPutinfeelsfortheshoot-down,butanassessmentthatbetweentheapparentKerrybackdown
onAssad,whomTurkeywantstoseego,andthemovingforwardoftheexpansionoftheNordStreampipeline,which
removestheeconomicandsecurityrationalefortheTurkishStream,RussiacanaffordtotakeaharderlinewithAnkara.
Ofcourse,thecommentswhichhavedrawnthemostattentionarePutin'sendorsementofthecandidacyofDonaldTrump.
WhilepiouslyproclaimingthatRussiadoesnotseektointerveneinAmericandomesticpolitics,andwouldfindawayto
workwithanyonewhoiselectednextyear,Putindescribedthereal-estatemogulandcurrentRepublicanfront-runnerasan
"outstandingman"and"unquestionablytalented"amarkedchangefromotherleaderswhohavebeenhighlycriticaland
disparagingofTrump.(Trumprespondedpositivelytothoseremarksseveralhourslater,citingPutinasarespectedworld
leaderthathecandobusinesswith.)
IsPutinhavingfunwiththeU.S.mediabyall-but-endorsingTrumpasthe"absoluteleader"inthepollsthatthisisatrolling
effortofextraordinarymagnitudebysuggestingthatwhattheUnitedStatesneedsisaPutin-styleadministrationinoffice?Is
thisPutin'seffortstostrikebackatbeingtheleading"badguy"thatmostotherU.S.presidentialcandidateshaveidentified
andpromisedtocontain,slapdownorputinhisplace?Orishesuggestingthatatrue"reset"canonlyoccurwithaDonald
TrumpintheOvalOffice?
WhetherornotPutinbelieves(orisbeingfedanalysis)thatTrumpcouldwinthepresidency,Putin'spraiseofTrumpreflects
hiscontemptofmuchoftheU.S.politicalestablishment.HehasdealtwithtwoU.S.presidentswhopromisedfundamental
changesintheU.S.-Russiarelationshipbutwho,fromhisperspective,wereunwillingtoinvestseriouspoliticalcapitaland
risktheireofestablishedinterestgroupstomakerealchangesandwhoinsteadwerealwaystryingtosquarethecircle
betweenengagingRussiaandcontinuingtosupporttheexpansionofEuro-Atlanticinstitutionseastward.ThepraiseofTrump
signalsPutin'sinterestinfindingWesternleaderswhowillcometothetabletobargainingoodnineteenth-centurystyle,
tradingspheresofinfluenceforcooperation.Italsosuggeststhathedoesnottaketherestofthepresidentialfieldboth
DemocratsandRepublicansallthatseriously.
ThejokemaybeonPutinifhisgamblesfailandtheeconomyworsens.Bythetimeofnextyear'sgalaevent,we'llsee
whetherhispredictionofaTrumpvictoryhasbeenborneoutbyeventsandwhetherwhoeverwillsucceedBarackObama
intheWhiteHousewillconsiderengagingPutinalongtheTrumpline.
NikolasGvosdevisacontributingeditoratTheNationalInterestandco-authorofRussianForeignPolicy:Vectors,Sectors
andInterests(CQPress,2013).Theviewsexpressedherearehisown.
Image:WikimediaCommons/Kremlin.ru.
Subject:3yearsofPutin-HowRussiahaschangedinthe3yearssincesanctionscameintopower[ED:TheReality......NumbersDon't
Lie]
PutinPostSanctions
Subject:UnderstandingmodernRussia?WhyEuropeanleadersshouldreadPeterPomerantsev[ED:GettingPutinRight]
UnderstandingmodernRussia?WhyEuropeanleadersshould
readPeterPomerantsev
http://www.ecfr.eu/article/understanding_modern_russia_why_european_leaders_should_read_peter_pomerant#.VnWV-
5DQ-5I.twitter
VladislavSurkov,thedemiurgeoftheKremlin,surprisesusallbyenteringfrombehindtheuniversityauditorium,beforetakingthestageinfrontofan
audiencepackedwithdoctoratestudents,professors,journalistsandpoliticians.Heiswearingawhitet-shirtandleatherjacket,fallinghalfway
betweenJoyDivisionandacommissarfromthe30s.Iamtheauthor,oroneoftheauthors,ofthenewRussiansystem.MyportfolioattheKremlin
andingovernmenthasincludedideology,media,politicalparties,religion,modernisation,innovation,foreignrelations,and...herehepausesand
smilesmodernart.Hedecidesnotmakeaspeech,butinsteadinvitestheaudiencetoposequestionsandhaveanopendiscussionwithhim.After
thefirstquestion,hetalksforalmost45minutes,leavinghardlyanytimeforothers.Itsademonstrationofhispoliticalsysteminminiature:democratic
rhetoricandundemocraticintent.
InNothingIsTrueandEverythingIsPossible:AdventuresinModernRussia,abrilliantandattimesappallingportrayaloftodaysRussianelites,
PeterPomerantsevintroducesSurkov.Oftenlurkingintheshadows,SurkovhascontributedtothePutingovernmentsconsolidationofpowerthrough
Hollywood-stylemediastuntsandthroughwhatinthepost-Sovietspaceisknownaspoliticaltechnology.
Showbiz,politicaltechnologyandoldfashionedauthoritarianism
ThroughhisownforayintothemedialandscapeofRussia,PomerantsevexplainshowthenewKremlin,havinggainedcontroloftelevisionnetworks,
hasshowngreatskillincombiningWestern-styleentertainmentwithauthoritarianismandmoreorlesssubtlepropaganda.ThemistakeoftheTVinthe
USSR-beingboringisnowavoidedatallcosts.Alwayscentrestage,thefigureofthepresidentisinconstantmetamorphosis,likeanactor.Putin
switchesbetweentherolesofsoldier,lover,bare-chestedhunter,businessman,spy,tsar,superman.Surkovwouldmeetonaweeklybasiswiththe
directorsofthemainchannels,decidingwhotoattackandwhotodefendwhichpoliticalleaderwouldenjoyairtimeandwhowouldnot.Thescreen
relentlesslydepictsthepresidentasthedoyenofstabilityandefficiencyincontrasttothepresidentialchaosofthe90s,andrepeatedlyputsout
messagesaboutthemandtheenemy,meaningoppositionleaders,liberals,journalists,theWest,theUnitedStatesandchurki(apejorativeterm
forpeoplefromtheCaucusesandCentralAsia,thatassociatesthemwithterrorismandblackwidows).Inaway,thisisnotdissimilartotherhetoric
pumpedoutbyFoxNewsandotherchannels,whichthroughoutthenever-endingWaronTerrorhavedisseminatedthelibellousopinionsofDonald
Trumpandotherslikehim-dressingupxenophobia,defamationandthestigmatisationofminoritiesasnormality.
Pomerantsevdescribeshowthispublicdiscourse,alongwiththeKremlinsgrowingparanoiaregardingfifthcolumns,gotfiercerastheneedtocreate
panicandfearbecamegreater,turningoffrationality.Inparallel,theKremlininvestedintheinfrastructuretodisseminateitsownreadingsof
internationalrelations,presentedasRussiasview,throughformatsandplatformswhichareWesterninappearance,suchasRussiaToday.
Politicaltechnologyisameansofappropriatingpracticallyallformsofpoliticaldiscoursepossible,theirideologiesandmovements,givingthem
visibilityorridiculinganddemonisingthem,accordingtothecircumstances.PeoplelikeSurkovmayactivelysupportorcreateNGOs,partiesand
liberalleadersseeminglycriticaloftheKremlin(aslongasthatcriticismislimited),andthenext,putthemunderfirefromultranationalistforcesand
orthodoxfundamentalists.Oldertraditionsofco-optingforcesthatopposetheregimeinpower,presentingthemasalivethreat,areblendedwith
twenty-firstcenturymediatechnologyandPRstrategies-somethingwhichhasworkedwellinRussianpropagandaaboutUkrainesNazis.The
dissentingvoicesincivilsocietyandpoliticalforcesarestigmatised,notonlyasanti-Russianandtraitors,but,inPomerantsevswords,asMuscovite
hipstersoutoftouchwithordinaryRussians,concernedonlybymarginalissuessuchasfreedomsorLGBTrights.
Totopthisoff,mediacampaignsandtheuseofpoliticaltechnologyarecombinedwithtraditionalrepressiveaction,reminiscentofpasttimes.Hence,
decisionstoclassifycivilsocietyorganisationsasundesirableorforeignagents,restrictingtheiractivitiestoaminimumshamtrials,andthe
rejectionofthejurisdictionoftheEuropeanCourtofHumanRights.
ButthenoveltyofthisbrandofauthoritarianismistocombinesheerrepressionwithasubtleuseofmodernWesternstrategiesofmediaandPRforthe
controlofthemasses.Realityisdeconstructedandanillusioncreatedofapluralpublicspace-aspacethatisalsoattractiveforpeopleoutside
Russia,scepticaltowardstheEU,WashingtonandtheWesteventhoughthisisfarfromthecase.
Russlandverstehersgetitwrong:thetheatreofabsurdandzomboyashschiks
InourpartofEuropeandincountriessuchasFrance,Spain,GermanyorItaly,acommonmessageinanypoliticaldebateaboutRussia,Ukraineor
thepost-SovietspaceingeneralistheimportanceofunderstandingRussiaandtheRussianmentality.Ittendstobeaccompaniedwithlearned
nodstotheSlavicworld,thetsars,theSovietUnionandreferencestoDostoyevskyandTolstoy.Inthisvein,theRusslandversteherstendtocross
thelinebetweenexplainingeventssuchastheannexationofCrimea,ortherestrictionsonfreedominRussia,andjustifyingthem.
ClassicslikeDostoyevskyorTolstoycanbeusefultounderstandtheculturalsubstrataofmanyRussiansandtheirtakeonexistence.Likewise,
RussianforeignpolicyinthetsaristperiodandtheUSSRcanshedsomelightontodaysgeopoliticaltensionsandtheRussianperspectiveinits
backyard.ButneitherhistorynorgeopoliticsalonecanexplaintodaysRussia.ThesystemdescribedbyPomerantsevmightbeevenmoreusefulfor
ourpoliticaldecision-makerswhenitcomestounderstandingcontemporaryRussiaand,especially,thenatureofitselitesandthepowercirclein
question.
AsPomerantsevargues,itisdifficulttoappreciatethebrutalimpactthattheconsecutivedestructionofvariouspoliticalmodelsfromtheUSSR
toperestroikaorneoliberalismhasonasocietyanditselites.TodaysRussianelitesoftencombinenihilism,aNietzschian
characterofbermenschabovemoralcodes,andextremematerialism.ProminentproKremlinpoliticiansvituperateagainsttheWestfromthe
Duma,sometimesthreateninganucleararmageddonorridiculingGayeuropa,whilesendingtheirchildrentoOxbridgeorCostaBrava.Concepts
likeMotherRussiaandtheRussianworld(russkiymir)doubtlessservetomobilisethegeneralpopulationnowandthen,whoasmany
Westerners-areneedfulofcollectivelandmarksintimesofuncertainty,penuryandmoralvacuum.Buttheseideasmostlyoperateasinstrumentsof
powerwieldedbyadominantclassinordertodirectattentionawayfrommoreimmediateproblemsandbasicgovernanceshortcomings.
Deepdown,thereisanongoingerosionofmorality,somethingwhichnosocietyisimmunefrom,whetherduetothelegaciesoftotalitarianismand
conflict,thepoisonousrhetoricofleaders,orendemicimpunity.AcasecanalsobemadeagainstthatUSintoxicatedbyapoliticsoffearwhich
justifiestortureandvotesinCongressagainsttheacceptanceofSyrianrefugees.OrthinkofthesurrealbubbleofshrinkingcosmopolitanTelAviv,
wherehandsomeyouthsworkingoutbythebeachjustafewmilesfromthedramaticrealityofoccupationandviolentdeath.ThisRussiaofspinand
showbizmakesapoliticalsystemandwayoflifeforitsrulersoutofthetheatreofthelieandtheabsurd(liketheweatherforecastforbombingSyria).
Itprefersdevotedzomboyashchiks(zombies)topoliticallyactivecitizens.
AnotherRussia?
Baraviolentrevolutionarypoliticalchange(and,probably,supportfromwithinthesystem,asinothercases),itisperhapsutopicthinkingtoconceive
ofanypossibilityofrevertingtheKremlinssystemsandprocessesofcollectiveregressionwhetherbywell-intentionedexternalactorsorcommitted
localactivists.Atleastfromoutsideofthecircleofpowerwhichconstructsrealityandshapesthesocialorder.
Yet,attimes,theredoesexistanotherRussia,which,whenitmanagestomakeitsvoiceheard,harshlyrefutesmanyargumentsofthe
RusslandverstehersandPutinsupporters.ThisistheRussiaofyoungleaderssuchasIlyaYashin,criticalofthewarinUkraine,whoseRPR-
PARNASpartysufferedallkindsofboycottsinSeptembersregionalelections.ItcertainlywastheRussiaofBorisNemtsovorAnnaPolitkovskaya.
OreventheRussiaofthosethousandsofMoscowcitizenswhotooktothestreetsinlate2011,creatinghugeanxietyinthehallsofpower.
TheRussianquestionandthecountrysassimilationintheEuro-AtlanticspacewillcontinuewithorwithoutPutin.ButthefutureofRussiaasitis
shouldbeaconcernforall.WithoutwishingtolapseintoromanticidealismorManicheanvisions,thisotherRussiaor,rather,otherRussiaswould
probablybeclosertoEurope,pronetocooperationandfriendlierrelationswiththeneighbours.Thesadfacttodayisthatalargepartofthatother
Russiachoosesexile.
Andyetmaybebecauseofagenerationalfactororgenuinerespectforthosedissentingvoicesagainstahegemonicmodel(whereprotestingmeans
riskingitall)-itisinevitabletofeelmoreempathytowardsPussyRiot,PetrPavlensky,theiconoclastartist,orNGOslikeMemorial,thanblind
nostalgiaaboutanidealisedRussia(nottomentionanequallyidealisedUSSR)whichnolongerexists.
IfthatotherRussiaendsupdisappearingandthosevoicesarelefttowither,thefutureofthisOrwellianRussiawheretheworldisturnedonitshead,
willnotendearitsneighboursorEurope.Butaboveallitdoesnotbodewellatallforthepeoplewhoactuallylivethere.
*TranslationbyJamesBadcock.
http://www.ecfr.eu/article/understanding_modern_russia_why_european_leaders_should_read_peter_pomerant#.VnWV-5DQ-5I.twitter
Subject:ForMr.TrumpandMr.Putin,abondofpower-hungriness,vulgarityandcynicism
ForMr.TrumpandMr.Putin,abondofpowerhungriness,vulgarityandcynicism
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/formrtrumpandmrputinabondofpowerhungrinessvulgarityand
cynicism/2015/12/19/7c4401b0a5b511e5b53d972e2751f433_story.html
TheinsidetrackonWashingtonpolitics.
FORDONALDTrump,nothingmeritsrespectmorethanhighpollnumbers,includinghisown,whichtheRepublicanpresidentialhopeful
equateswithstrength,intelligenceandsuccess.InMr.Trumpsworldview,thatsimplisticformulationisreasonalonetoaccorddeference
andesteemtoVladimirPutinnevermindthattheRussianpresidentisanautocratwhosepopularityathomerestsinnosmallmeasure
onhavingsilencedcriticswhoseviews,weretheyallowedapublicairing,mightputacrimpinhisapprovalrating.
Forhispart,Mr.Putin,whosecynicismandsnarlingvulgarityaremirroredinMr.Trumpsownpoliticaloratory,seesintheU.S.mogula
manafterhisownheart.FortheRussianpresident,whooncerecommendedthatajournalistgetcircumcised,Mr.Trumpssuggestionthat
FoxNewssMegynKellywasmenstruatingwhenshechallengedhimmusthaveseemedabonmot,ifalittletoosubtlefortheRussians
taste.DittoMr.Trumpsindulgenceandoutrightapprovalofhissupportersuseofviolence.
TheirmutualadmirationsocietygotapublicairingthisweekwhentheRussianleaderconfessedhisadmirationforMr.Trump(avery
brightandtalentedmanandanabsoluteleaderinthepresidentialrace)andMr.Trumpimmediatelyreturnedthefavor,sayinghewas
greatlyhonoredbyMr.Putinspraise.
SowhatifMr.PutinhasorderedthekillingofjournalistsandtheinvasionofCrimea,Mr.TrumpsaidFriday,inresponsetoaquestionfrom
MSNBCsJoeScarborough,onMorningJoe.Hesrunninghiscountry,andatleasthesaleader,saidMr.Trump.Unlikewhatwehave
inthiscountry.
Whatthetwomenshare,andrecognizeineachother,goesbeyondstrongpollingnumbers,anaffinityforincendiarylanguageanda
contemptforthose(withPresidentObamaleadingthelist)theyregardasweak.Whatreallyattractsthemisacommonworldviewin
whichmoneytalksanddemocraticnormsareforsuckers.
MuchasMr.Putinhasmuzzledfreeexpressioninthemedia,marginalizedpoliticalopponentsandscrappedcontestedelections,
Mr.TrumphasblithelyendorsedshuttingdownpartsoftheInternet,praisedPresidentFranklinD.RooseveltforinterningJapanese
AmericansduringWorldWarIIandopenlycontemplatedregisteringMuslimsinAmerica.
WhereMr.Putinseescorruptionasthenorm,Mr.Trumpsimilarlyregardspublicserviceasamarketplaceinwhichanyoneandeveryone
canbebought.Igivetoeverybody,Mr.TrumptoldaNewHampshireaudienceinthesummer.TheydowhateverIwant.Itstrue.
Granted,Mr.Trump,hisrhetoricnotwithstanding,ishardlyinMr.Putinsleagueasavicioustyrant.Mr.Trumpscriticsaresubjectedonly
tothevenomofhisinsults;Mr.Putinshaveawayofendingupinprison,orshottodeathinthestreet.
ButbelievetheAmericantycoonwhenhesaysthatMr.Putinisamanwithwhomhewouldgetalong,andwho,intermsof
leadership,hesgettinganA.Thefeelingismutual,andrevealing.
Readmoreaboutthistopic:
DavidIgnatius:IsDonaldTrumpanAmericanPutin?
GeorgeF.Will:TrumpsimmigrationplancouldspelldoomfortheGOP
EugeneRobinson:TheGOPsscariestcandidate
SECOND'VLAD'CATEGORY:"HELPINGFRIENDS[SuddenlyforwardtoLibyaandCyprusaswellasbackto
India].....HOUNDINGENEMIES[Ukrainians,theSyrianOpposition,theTurksandsoontheSaudis]'.....ONE
HECKOFAGUY!!!"
Subject:LibyaSeeksRussia'sHelpinBattlingTerrorism(OhBOYIsensedthiswascoming!!!-WD)
LibyaSeeksRussiasHelpinBattlingTerrorism
11:5119.12.2015
.html
TheLibyanArmedForces'CommanderBrigadierGeneralKhalifaHafterhasvoicedhiscountry'sreadiness
tocooperatewithRussiainfightingterrorism,accordingtotheIraniannewsagencyFARS.
"WewelcomesupportfromRussiainfightingterrorism,"theagencyquotesHafterastellingreportersafte
hismeetingwithUnitedNationsSupportMissioninLibya(UNSMIL)ChiefMartinKoblerinthecityofMarj,
NortheasternLibya.
WillSyriaRepeattheFateofLibya,WhichNoLongerExists?ThemilitaryleaderassuredthatifRussia
proposesaplanforfightingterrorisminLibya,TripoliwillcooperatewithMoscow,addingthatRussians
areseriousin[the]fightagainstterrorists.
Thecountry'scapitalTripoli,iscontrolledbyapoliticalfaction,knownastheGeneralNationalCongress,
whichwassetupafteranarmedgroupcalledLibyaDawnseizedthecapital,Tripoli,lastsummer.
OnThursday,rivalLibyanpoliticianssignedadealonaunitygovernmentdespiteoppositiononbothsides,
inwhattheUnitedNationsdescribedasa"firststep"towardsendingthecrisis.
Worldpowershaveurgedthewarringfactionstobreakapoliticaldeadlockthathasallowedjihadistsand
people-smugglerstoflourish.Meanwhile,thejihadistgroupDaesh(alsoknownasISIL/ISIS)hasincreasedits
presenceintheLibyanMediterraneancityofSirte,havingapparentlyestablisheditsnewbasethere,whereit
cangenerateoilrevenueandplanterrorattacks.
From:JACKE
Subject:SyriagivesRFtheEasternMedCyprusopensuptheWesternMedtoRU
http://cyprus-mail.com/2015/12/20/poll-majority-would-favour-granting-military-facilities-to-russia/
Home
Cyprus
Poll:majoritywouldfavourgrantingmilitaryfacilitiestoRussia(Update:
addsEDEKvindication)
DECEMBER20TH,2015CYPRUS39COMMENTS
CYPRUS
ARussianSukhoiSu-24fighterjettakesofffromtheHmeymimairbasenearLatakia,Syria,
RELATEDPOST...
Chineseminister'svisitaimstoboosttieswithCyprus
CypruspositionsitselfonEU-Turkeytalks
SuspectedRussianwarplaneskillscoresinSyriancity-rescueworkers
AlmostthreeoutoffourCypriotswouldwelcometheprovisionofmilitaryfacilitiestoRussiabyCyprus,accordingtoapollconductedforSimerini
newspaperandpublishedonSunday.
OverhalfofthosepolledislandwideonDecember16and17,saidthegovernmentshouldseekclosertieswithMoscow.
TheissueofofferingmilitaryfacilitiestoRussiacameupearlierthismonthwhentheRussianambassadorsaidthematterwasbeingdiscussedby
NicosiaandMoscowbutthiswaslaterdeniedbytheforeignministriesofbothcountries.Russiaistobeofferedhumanitarianandrefuellingfacilities
suchasthosealreadygiventoFranceandGermany.
AccordingtotheSimerinipoll,carriedoutbytheUniversityofNicosia,42percentsaidthatCyprusshouldhaveequallycloserelationswiththeUS
andwithRussia.
SevenoutoftenCypriotswereopentoofferingmilitaryfacilitiestoRussianforcesfightingagainstterrorism,with37percentgoingasfarassaying
Cyprusshouldgivethemabase.
ThreeoutoffivesaidtheywouldfeelsaferiftherewasaRussianmilitarypresenceontheisland.Twooutoffivesaidtheyfeellesssafeinrecent
monthssinceBritainbeganbombingtheIslamicStateinSyriafromitsRAFbaseinCyprus.
SocialistEDEK,whichhasbeenpushingthegovernment,alongwiththeCitizensAlliancetograntRussiamilitaryfacilities,saidonSundaythepoll
hadvindicateditspositionontheissue.InthefightagainstterrorismandtheillegalIslamicstateofISISwemustofferthesamemilitaryfacilitiesasan
allyofFranceandofRussia,thepartysaid.
Subject:India-Russiaeyenuclear,helicopterdeals[HeadingbacktooldColdWarAlignments?India-RU????AgainsttheWest?]
India-Russiaeyenuclear,helicopterdeals
Dec18,2015,10.33PM|Source:Reuters
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/current-affairs/india-russia-eye-nuclear-helicopter-deals_4654261.html
RussiaandIndiawillmanufacture200Kamov-226Thelicoptersinajointventure,aRussianandanIndiangovernmentofficialsaid,inthefirstbigstep
forModi'scampaigntobuildadomesticindustrialbaseandreducethemilitary'sdependenceonexpensiveimports.
Modi,whoheadsforMoscowonDec.23,willalsoofferRussiaasiteinAndhraPradeshtobuildsixnuclearreactorsof1,200megawatts(MW)
each,thesamesourcesadded.
ThatisinadditiontothesixRussiaisconstructinginneighbouringTamilNadu,saidtheofficials,whospokeonconditionofanonymitybecausethey
werenotauthorisedtospeaktothepress.
NewDelhihasturnedtoRussiaasU.S.firmGeneralElectricandWestinghouse,aU.S.-basedunitofJapan'sToshiba,arestillweighinganentryinto
India'snuclearenergysectorbecauseofalawthatmakesreactorsuppliersliableincaseofanaccident.
Modi's"Make-in-India"pushforamilitarythathasbeentheworld'sbiggestimporterforthelastfouryearshasalsomadelittleheadway,with
negotiationsstalledoverissuesincludingtechnologytransferandthelocalassemblyofequipment.
ForRussia,Indiaoffersanalternative,fast-growingoutletforitsexportsassanctionsimposedbytheWestsqueezetheeconomy.
"Whileothersaremakingpromises,RussiaismovingforwardwiththeMake-in-Indiaprogramme,"theRussiangovernmentsourcesaid.
RUSSIALETDOMINANCESLIP
Moscow,whichhasmaintainedclosetieswithIndiasincetheColdWar,hasinrecentyearsslippedbehindtheUnitedStatesandIsraelinsecuring
ordersintheIndiandefencemarket,estimatedtobeworth$130billionoverthenextsevenyears.
NowRussianPresidentVladimirPutinisbankingonIndia'sdrivetomanufactureathometoregainmarketshare.
"TheobjectiveisthatwhateverwedowithRussia,thatwillhavea'Make-in-India'component,"saidAmitabhKant,thetopIndianbureaucratleading
thepushtoturnIndiaintoaglobalmanufacturingbase.
Underaninter-governmentagreementtobesignedduringModi'strip,Moscowwillsetupaproductionlineforthelighthelicoptersthatwillsupplythe
IndianmilitarybutalsoeventuallyRussia,theRussianofficialsaid.
India'sstate-runHindustanAeronauticsandAnilAmbani'sRelianceDefenceareintherunningaslocalpartnersforthedealforthe200twin-engined
helicopters,estimatedat$1billion,toreplaceIndia'sageingfleetofCheetahandChetakhelicopters.
"ThechoiceoftheIndianpartnerhasbeenlefttotheIndiangovernment.Wewillworkwithanyonethegovernmentnominates,"theofficialsaid.
IndiaisalsoturningtoRussiatosecureoverseasenergyassetstohelpfuelitseconomy.
IndianOilCorpandOilIndia,bothstate-owned,areintalkswithRussia'sRosnefttobuyuptoa29percentstakeinaSiberianoilproject,two
sourcessaidonFriday.
RUSSIAHASTHEADVANTAGE
ThehelicopterdealwouldbethefirstmajorcontractunderModi'sdrivetobuildweaponsathomethathasexcitedlocaldefencecompaniesbutfailed
todeliveranysignificanttenders.
AssomeIndianmanufacturerslooktoWesternfirmsforthetie-upsneededtobringintechnologyandbuildlocally,Relianceisforgingclosertieswith
Russiatojumpstartitsnascentbidtodevelopadefencebusinessfromscratch.
ARelianceexecutive,whoaskednottobenamed,saidnegotiationstowinthejointhelicopterventurewouldnotstartuntilthetwogovernmentshad
agreedthedeal.HindustanAeronauticsdidnotrespondtoarequestforcomment.
AsourceclosetoRosoboronexport,Russia'sstate-ownedarmsexporter,saidIndiawouldproduce140ofthechoppersandRussiatheremaining60.
Pre-contractworkisunderwayandthetwosidesexpecttoclarifytheagreementduringModi'svisit,thesourcesaid.
AnIndiangovernmentofficialconfirmedtheplantosignthehelicopterdealaswellastheproposedofferofAndhraPradeshasthelocationofthenext
setofreactorstobebuiltbyRussianstate-ownednuclearfirmRosatom.
Thetwosideshavenotgivenanyvalueforthedeal.RosatomspokesmanSergeyNovikovsaidtherewerenoplansyettosignanycontractsduring
Modi'svisit.
NandanUnnikrishnan,anexpertonIndia-RussiarelationsattheObserverResearchFoundation,saidthatdespiteNewDelhi'stilttowardstheWest
formilitaryhardwareinrecentyears,Russiaretainedanedgeinmanyareas.
"RussiahasadistinctadvantageovereveryoneinunderstandinghowIndianbureaucracyworks,giventheleveloftrustthatexistsintheIndian
establishmentvis-a-visRussia,"hesaid.
.html
From:JackE
Subject:SaudiArabiaBuys30UkrainianPlanesNamedAfterNotoriousNaziPuppet/AnotherSputnikInternationalStory[GotLovethe
RussianImagination.....andtheChutzpah:FirsttheUkrainians,thentheSyrianOpposition,thentheTurks,andnowtheSaudis,whoare
drivingdownthepricesofoilbelowthe35dollarmark]
http://m.sputniknews.com/business/20151219/1032018412/ukraine-saudi-aircraft-deal.html
Senttime: 12/19/201501:00:32PM
FW:[SATAFTERNOON/ESTITEMSTONOTE---RICHLODE][JohnD]Fwd:"RussianCONTRACTORSwerekilledinSyria,"WSJ,12/19-20,p.
Subject:
A8.....[MichaelG]TheRU-DE'Technolohiya'UsedtoCircumventSanctions........[BP]PolishreportonRussianwarcrimesinDo...
Sent:Saturday,December19,201512:03PM
Subject:Fwd:[SATAFTERNOON/ESTITEMSTONOTE---RICHLODE][JohnD]Fwd:"RussianCONTRACTORSwerekilledinSyria,"WSJ,
12/19-20,p.A8.....[MichaelG]TheRU-DE'Technolohiya'UsedtoCircumventSanctions........[BP]PolishreportonRussianwarcrimesinDo...
Subject:[SATAFTERNOON/ESTITEMSTONOTE---RICHLODE][JohnD]Fwd:"RussianCONTRACTORSwerekilledin
Syria,"WSJ,12/19-20,p.A8.....[MichaelG]TheRU-DE'Technolohiya'UsedtoCircumventSanctions........[BP]Polishreporton
RussianwarcrimesinDonbas......[AFU]HILARIOUS:"TRUMPNAMESPUTINASHISRUNNINGMATE"
[Enjoy/Disseminate]........[CliffK]TrumpSeekstoMakeRussiaGreatAgain.......[WD]Meduza:Putin'slies----6ofthemost
outrageousuntruthsfromyesterday'spressconference........
OnSat,Dec19,2015at1:40PM,JohnBDunlopwrote:
"RussianCONTRACTORSwerekilledinSyria,"WSJ,12/19-20,p.A8
AsmanyasnineRussiancontractorsdiedinOctoberwhenamortarroundhittheir
homebaseinWesternSyriaTheRussiangovernmenthasntacknowledgedtheir
deaths.TheRussianskilledinSyriabelongedtoaprivategroupcalledOSMThe
groupisknowninformallyasWagner,afterthenomdeguerreofitsleader,aformer
militaryintelligenceofficer
From:MichaelGonchar<mi.gor17@gmail.com>
Subject:Itmightbeinteresting
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,MykolaHryckowian<mykcusur@gmail.com>,wolodymyrzarycky
<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
ED:ARussian-GermanTale(inUkrainian):The'Technolohiya'ofCircumventingtheSanctions
http://gazeta.dt.ua/international/rosiysko-nimeckiy-nur-gesch-ft-abo-tehnologiya-obhodu-sankciy-_.html
--
Sincerelyyours
MichaelM.Gonchar
PresidentoftheCentreforGlobalStudies
STRATEGYXXI(Kyiv)
HeadoftheKyivInternationalEnergyQ-Club
+380444254162(KyivOffice)
+380989827278(UAGSM)
Office26,Shchekavytskastr.51
Kyiv,04071,Ukraine
http://geostrategy.org.ua
From:BorysPotapenko<boryspotapenko@gmail.com>
Subject:Fwd:PolishreportonRussianwarcrimesinDonbas
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,MykolaHryckowian<mykcusur@gmail.com>
Vlodko
Iknowyouaredown-under,butcanyougetthisouttoyouremaillist.[ED:NotinOzzie-landyet!!]
Borys
From:NykolaiBilaniuk<em826@ncf.ca>
Subject:PolishreportonRussianwarcrimesinDonbas
To:
RussianwarcrimesineasternUkrainein2014
http://www.donbasswarcrimes.org/report/
2015-12-1019:07
155pages
ReportinPDFFormatisavailablehere
http://www.donbasswarcrimes.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Russian_War_Crimes_in_Eastern_Ukraine_in_2014.pdf
Summary
ThisreportdescribeswarcrimesinthemeaningofinternationallawcommittedineasternandsouthernUkrainebysoldiersandofficialsoftheRussianFederationandby
thepro-Russianseparatistfighters.Thecrimesdocumentedhereinincludeunlawfuldeprivationoffreedom,physicalandmentaltortures,robberyandmurders.
Chapters1through3areofanintroductorynature.Theydescribethemethodologyusedbytheauthorsofthereportandpresentthecircumstancesinwhichthe
subsequentlydetailedcrimeswerecommitted.
Thelocationsandtypesofthecrimesthatwerecommittedaswellastheirperpetratorsaredescribedinchapter4.Theauthorsdiscussonlythosecrimestheyweretold
aboutbythevictimsthereofduringthefieldresearch.Morethan60interviewsweregatheredinthecourseofcollectingthematerialsforthisreport.Eachactiondescribed
inchapter4isconfirmedbyaquotefromthetestimonyofoneormorevictims.
Chapter4isdividedintosubchaptersthatcorrespondtoeachofthevenueswherewarcrimeshavebeencommitted,asidentifiedbytheauthorsofthereport.Mostof
thosevenuesareineasternUkraine,oneinCrimeaandoneintheterritoryoftheRussianFederation,wheretheRussianarmybroughtUkrainianprisonersofwar.
Chapter5isacatalogueofperpetratorsofthecrimeswhowerementionedinthetestimoniesofthevictims,includingashortoverviewandreferencestothedescription
ofthevenueswherethecrimeswerebeingcommitted,andpictures.
Thevictimsarenotmentionedbynamebutbyanassigned"C"(case)codenamesandnumbers.Anypersonaldatathatcouldbeusedtoidentifythevictimsindirectly
suchas,forexample,pictures,havebeenincludedonlyifaspecificvictimagreedtothedisclosureofhisorheridentityandspokefreelyinthemedia.
BasedonthedocumentaryevidencedescribedinthereportacommunicationwillbesubmittedtotheInternationalCriminalCourtinTheHague.
ThisreportistheresultofexaminationsconductedbyagroupofvolunteersvolunteerscommissionnedbyaMemberofthePolishParliament,MatgorzataGosiewska.
From:AndrewJFutey<ajfutey@ameritech.net>
To:ZaryckyjWalter<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,HryckowianMykola<mykcusur@gmail.com>,PotapenkoBorys
<boryspotapenko@gmail.com>
AndrewJ.Futey
SentfrommyiPhone
From:"TrumpPutin2016"<info@johnkasich.com>
Date:December19,2015at10:28:35AMEST
To:<ajfutey@ameritech.net>
Reply-To:info@johnkasich.com
FORIMMEDIATERELEASE
CONTACT:KatrinaPeskov
TRUMPNAMESVLADIMIRPUTINASHISRUNNING
MATE
DuoPledgetoMakeTyrannyGreatAgain
Inaboldandvisionarymovecharacteristicofeverythinghe
does,todayterrificbillionaireDonaldTrumpnamedRussian
PresidentVladimirPutinashisrunningmateinthe2016U.S.
presidentialcampaign.TrumppledgedthattogetherwithPutin
hewouldMakeTyrannyGreatAgain.
TrumpsaidhepickedPutintobehisvicepresidentforhisstrong
approachtodealingwithdissent,flexibleapproachtodemocracy,
ruleoflawandtheConstitution,andhiswillingnesstoregularly
violateothercountriesterritorialintegrityinblatantviolationof
internationallawifitsuitedhisaims.
IthinkIwouldjustgetalongverywellwithVladimirPutin.I
justthinkso.Peoplesaywhatdoyoumean?Ijustthinkwe
would,saidTrump.
PutinreadilyacceptedTrumpsoffertoserveonhisticket,
saying,Hesareallybrilliantandtalentedperson,withouta
doubthestheabsoluteleaderinthepresidentialrace.
Trumpalsounveiledanewwebsiteforthedictatorial
duo:Trump-Putin2016.com,aswellastheTwitter
feed@TrumpPutin.
ConcernsthataPutinvicepresidencyis,well,illegalarejustsour
grapesfromdummiesnotsmartenoughtothinkofitfirst.
###
Pleaseclickhereifyouwishtounsubscribetotheseemails.
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From:CliffKincaid<kincaid@comcast.net>
Subject:TrumpSeekstoMakeRussiaGreatAgain
TrumpSeekstoMakeRussiaGreatAgain
ByCliffKincaid
http://www.aim.org/aim-column/trump-seeks-to-make-russia-great-again/
DonaldTrumphashiredanattractiveyoungwomantospinthenewsinhisfavor.Butitsadifficultjob,especiallywhenacold-blooded
killerendorsesyourcandidate.OnCNNonThursdaynight,KatrinaPiersonattemptedtosoftentheimpactoftheRussianpresidents
endorsementoforhighpraiseforTrumpforU.S.president.

Thiswasntanendorsement,shesaid.ThiswassimplyjustapowerfulmanrecognizingsomeoneintheUnitedStatesrunningfor
presidentwhoisalsoapowerfulman.Itwasnotanendorsement.
ThatpowerfulmaninRussiaisaformerKGBspywhoseregimeismurderinginnocentpeopleinUkraineandSyria.Itisthesame
regimewhoseterroristsinEasternUkraineshotdownaMalaysianairplaneandkilledalmost300people.
PutinsaidaboutTrump,Heisaveryflamboyantman,verytalented,nodoubtaboutthat...Heistheabsoluteleaderofthepresidential
race,asweseeittoday.Hesaysthathewantstomovetoanotherlevelofrelations,toadeeperlevelofrelationswithRussia.Howcan
wenotwelcomethat?Ofcoursewewelcomeit.
Itcertainlysoundedlikesomethingapproachinganendorsement.
TrumpprovidedastatementtoABCNewssaying,Itisalwaysagreathonortobesonicelycomplimentedbyamansohighly
respectedwithinhisowncountryandbeyond.Trumpwenton:IhavealwaysfeltthatRussiaandtheUnitedStatesshouldbeableto
workwellwitheachothertowardsdefeatingterrorismandrestoringworldpeace,nottomentiontradeandalloftheotherbenefits
derivedfrommutualrespect.
Highlyrespected?DoesTrumpnotunderstandhowtheKremlinmanipulatesthemediaandeliminatesoppositionpoliticalfiguresand
independentjournalists?
TrumpsreactionwasmoreembarrassingthanthenewsthatBolshevikBernieSanders,whoisrunningfortheDemocraticpresidential
nomination,hadhoneymoonedintheoldSovietUnion.BasedonhispraiseforPutin,whoranoneofthesuccessoragenciestothe
KGBbeforehebecameRussianpresident,Trumpmayturnouttobeanotherbillionairemorecomfortablewiththepoliciesofthe
DemocraticParty.
Duringthe2012campaign,inthefinalpresidentialdebate,RepublicanpresidentialcandidateMittRomneycalledRussiaageopolitical
foe.PresidentObamamockedhim,sayingRomneywasstuckinthepast.TheObama/HillaryClintonpolicywastheRussianre-set,
whichwassupposedtoincreasetradeandpoliticalcooperationwiththePutinregime.Instead,itsetthestageforPutinsinvasionof
Ukraine.Beforethat,in2008,RussiahadinvadeditsformerRepublicofGeorgia.
TrumpseemsnottounderstandhowtheObama/ClintonRussianpolicyfailed.
Inthecurrentcampaign,SenatorMarcoRubio(R-FL)hasbeenstronglycriticalofPutin,callinghimagangsterandanorganized
crimefigurewhocontrolsthegovernmentandalargeterritory.
Thatterritoryisgrowing.
Asabusinessmanhimself,TrumpshouldknowthatpropertyrightsarenotrespectedinRussiaandthatmostoftheimportantbusinessis
concentratedinthehandsofPutinsformerKGBassociatesandcronies.Thatmakeshiscommentsaboutdevelopingatrade
relationshipwithPutinevenmoreincomprehensible.
BusinessmanBillBrowder,whorananinvestmentfundinRussiacalledHermitageCapitalManagement,wasforcedtofleeRussiaafter
hisassetswerestolen.Hislawyer,SergeiMagnitsky,wastorturedandmurdered,andhisdeathhasbecomeaninternationalsymbolof
humanrightsviolationsinRussia.
TheevidenceshowsthatPutinandhisgroupofformerKGBofficersarelootingRussia,consolidatingtheirpower,andeliminating
throughtortureandmurderanyonewhogetsintheirway.Browdersbook,RedNotice,tellsthestoryindetail.Hiswebsite,Russian
Untouchables,namesthenamesoftheRussianofficialsinvolvedinthecase.
AfilmthatwasshownonDecember15attheNewseum,FromRussiawithCash,explainshowRussiangovernmentfiguresseekto
stealandlaundertheirmoneyabroadthroughrealestatetransactionsinvolvingshellcompanies.
PiersontoldCNNthatTrumpsacceptanceofthePutinendorsementwasmadeinthecontextoffightingterrorism,fightingISISinthe
MiddleEast.Shesaid,VladimirPutinhassteppedup.Manypeopledorespecthimforthat,includingAmericanswhomaynotlike
VladimirPutinbuttheylikethefactthathessteppingupandtakingactionagainstISIS.
PiersonisavictimoftheRussianpropagandaoperationsbeingwagedintheU.S.andothercountriesbysuchKremlinoutletsasRussia
Today(RT).
Putinhassteppeduptosavethelong-timeSoviet/RussianclientstateofSyria.Theotherguestontheshow,radiohostBenFerguson,
pointedout,PutinisproppingupAssad.Youshouldunderstandthat,soshouldDonaldTrump.ButTrumpapparentlydoesnot.
Whatsmore,theevidenceindicatesthatPutinsmilitaryhasbeentargetinganti-Assadpro-Westernrebelgroups,notISIS.Infact,
BritishForeignSecretaryPhilipHammondsayspro-AssadmilitarystrikeshaveallowedISIStoseekadvantageontheground.He
said,ThemajorityofRussianairstrikescontinuetotargetSyrianoppositionforces.
ISISitselfhasconfirmedinoneofitsownpublicationsthatRussiaismainlytargetingothergroups,declaringthatRussiaisbombingthe
alliesofAmericaandthatitsinterventioninSyriahasconfusedAmericananalysts,thinktanks,intelligence,andpolicy-makers.
Trumphastobeconsideredintheranksoftheconfused.
InthewakeofTrumpsgaffeduringtherecentdebate,whenhedemonstratedignoranceaboutthenucleartriad,hisacceptanceof
PutinsendorsementmayputthisbusinessmanintheranksofofficialRussiandupes.Ineffect,theleadingGOPpresidentialcandidate
hasbecomecaptivetoMoscowspropaganda.
OncethevotersunderstandhowTrumphasemergedasastoogeofPutininthepresidentialrace,hisdaysasaseriouscandidatewillbe
numbered.
Imlikeareallysmartperson,Trumphassaid.ThisisthecandidatewhoacceptspraisefromVladimirPutinandreturnsthe
compliment,butsayshedoesntwantJebBushsendorsementbecauseheisalowenergypersonandhedoesnotrepresentstrength,
powerandstamina,whicharequalitiesourcountrydesperatelyneeds.
Itmaybetoolate,consideringthedamagehiscommentshavecausedtohiscampaignandreputation,butTrumpoughttodevotesome
ofhisownenergytounderstandinghowtheKremliniswagingawarofpropagandaanddisinformationregardingsubjectslikethewars
inUkraineandSyria.HeshouldalsoreadbusinessmanBillBrowdersbookoncorruptioninRussia.
CliffKincaidistheDirectoroftheAIMCenterforInvestigativeJournalism,andcanbecontactedatcliff.kincaid@aim.org
Subject:Putin'slies----6ofthemostoutrageousuntruthsfromyesterday'spressconference[Meduza]
Putinslies
6ofthemostoutrageousuntruthsfromyesterdayspressconference
11:50,18DECEMBER2015MEDUZA
VladimirPutinspentthreehoursansweringjournalists'questionsyesterdayathisannualpress
conference.Severaltimesduringthatmarathon,heplayedfastandloosewithfactsand
statistics.Meduzahighlightssomeofthemostegregiousuntruths.
Cargotrucksandpassengervehiclespaythesamevehicletax.
InPutin'swords:Amotorvehicletaxisthesameforpassengercarsandtrucksweighing12tonnesor
more.[...]Expertssaythatduringaccelerationandbraking,12-tonnetrucksdomoredamagetotheroad
bedthancars.However,theypaythesameamount.Thisproposalseekstocreatealevelplayingfield
foralltypesoftransport.
Infact:Taxratesfortheownersoftrucksandcarsaredifferent.Bylaw,thefederalgovernmentonly
setstheframeworkforvehicletaxrates,butregionalofficialscanraiseordecreasetheserates.Ifyou
lookatthetaxratessetdownbyregionallaws,it'sclearthatpassengervehiclesandcargotruckspay
differenttaxes.Forexample,inSt.Petersburg,apassengercarbetween100and150horsepowerpays
35rubles,whiletrucksofthesamehorsepowerpay40rubles.Andsometimes,itsohappens,cargo
trucksactuallypaylowertaxesthanordinarycars.
Muscovitescanparkneartheirhomesforfreeandeveryoneissatisfied.
InPutin'swords:Andparkingisfreeforpeoplewholiveinthebuildingsnexttothesecarparks.I
canassureyouthatthecitizensconcerned,theMuscoviteswholivenearthesecarparks,aremorein
favorofthepolicythanagainstit.Thechargesapplytothosewhoarrivefromotherdistrictsorother
regions:fromtheMoscowsuburbsandsoon.
Infact:WillingMuscovitescanobtainaso-calledresidentialpermittoparkforfreeneartheirhomes.
Butthisbenefitappliesonlybetweenthehoursof8p.m.and8a.m.For24-hourparking,you'vegotto
pay3,000rubles($42)ayear.DespitePutin'sconfidencethatMuscovitesaremoreinfavorthan
againsttheparkingfees,arecentLevadaCentersurveyshowsthatonlyintheverycenterofMoscow
doesthepolicyenjoynarrowsupport(57percent),whereasresidentsinMoscow'soutskirtsopposethe
newfees76percentto15percent.Justthispastweek,moreover,roughly1,000demonstratorsgathered
indowntownMoscowtoprotesttheparkingfees,resultinginseveraldetentionsbypolice.
Tatarstancandecideforitselfwhattheheadofitslocalgovernmentiscalled"head"or"president."
InPutin'swords:AsforthepresidentofTatarstan,thereisasayinginRussia:Callmeapotbutheat
menot.ThisisTatarstansbusiness.Idonotthinkthatthisissuchasensitiveissueorthatitcouldhurt
nationalfeelings.YouknowthepeopleintheCaucasusalwaysreactvehementlytoallissuesrelatedto
theirnationalidentity.However,evenChechnyasaid:no,thecountryshouldhaveonlyonepresident,
andwewillnotcalltheheadoftherepublicthisway.ThiswasthechoiceoftheChechenpeople.We
willrespectthechoiceofthepeopleofTatarstan.Itisuptoyoutodecide,allright?
Infact:TheChechenpeopleplayednoroleindecidingwhattocallRamzanKadyrov.(Heusedtobe
therepublic'spresident,whereastodayheistherepublic'shead.)Therewasnoreferendum.The
ChechenparliamentmerelyrenamedKadyrov'spositionatKadyrov'sownrequest,whichwas
promptednotbythewillofthepeople,butKadyrov'sownwhim.(Hedecidedthatonlyonepersonin
Russiashouldbecalledpresident,inagestureofservilitytoPutin.)
TheTatarpeoplearealsounlikelytogetasayinwhattheirrepublic'sleaderiscalled.Thereisa
federallawcomingintoeffectonJanuary1,2016,thatdesignatestheleadersofRussianrepublicsas
headsandnothingmore.Atthispoint,onlythefederalgovernmentcanrollbackthisreform.
Russianofficialsdidn'tknowthatTurkeyopposesthebombingofSyrianTurkmen.
InPutin'swords:Yousee,IhadnotheardabouttheTurkomans(SyrianTurks)before.Iknewthat
TurkmenourTurkmenlivedinTurkmenistan,andsoIwasconfusedNobodytoldusaboutthem.
ButafterweindicatedourwillingnesstocooperateontheissuesthataresensitivetoTurkey,why
didn'ttheyphoneusviathecooperationchannelsbetweenourmilitariestosaythatduringour
discussionsweoverlookedacertainpartoftheborderwhereTurkeyhasvestedinterests.Theycould
haveexpressedtheirconcernsoraskedusnottohitcertainareas.Butnobodysaidanything.
Infact:There'snowaytheRussianauthoritiesdidn'tknowwhoSyrianTurkmenare.TheTurkmenare
anethnicgroupofTurkicheritage,andareconsideredtobethethirdlargestminorityinSyria.Turkey
hastraditionallysupportedtheTurkmen.SeveraldaysbeforeTurkeyshotdownaRussianbomber,
TurkishofficialssummonedtheRussianambassadorandformallyprotestedRussianairstrikesagainst
TurkmensettlementsinSyria.
Foreignersdon'twanttoadoptsickchildren.
InPutin'swords:HereshowwewillworkLetsstartfromthelastpartofyourquestion.Idlike
topointoutthataccordingtostatisticsthenumberofsickchildrenadoptedbyforeignersisfarbelow
thatofhealthyones.Noforeignerhaseverrushedtoadoptoursickchildren.Thisisstatistics.Solets
nothurrytochangethedecisionsthatwevealreadymade.Thisisthefirstthing.
Infact:Statistically,foreignersadoptmorehealthychildrenthansickordisabledchildren,butthisisa
misleadingwayoflookingatthephenomenon,giventhatadoptionsofhealthychildrenarealwaysmore
common,regardlessoffosterparents'origins.In2012,Russianandforeignparentsadopted9,169
children,ofwhomonly200weredisabled.Ofalladoptionsbyforeignparents,disabledchildrenwere
adopted6.6percentofthetime.AmongadoptionsbyRussianparents,however,thatfiguredropsto0.4
percent.Inrawnumbers,Russianfosterparentsadopted29childrenwithdisabilitiesin2012,while
foreignparentsadopted171suchchildren.OneineverytenchildrenadoptedbyAmericanparentsthat
yearwasdisabled.
Russiawon'tlevysanctionsagainstUkraine.
InPutin'swords:WearenotgoingtoimposeanysanctionsonUkraineIwantthistobeheard.We
arejustswitchingtoamost-favored-nationtreatmentintrade.WhichmeansconditionsforUkrainewill
notbeanyworsethanthoseforourotherforeignpartners.
Infact:BeginningonJanuary1,2016,RussiawilllevyagainstUkrainethesamesanctionsitcurrently
hasagainsttheEuropeanUnion,theUnitedStates,Canada,andothernationsthathaveplacedsanctions
onRussiaforitsinterventioninCrimea.TheRussiangovernmentdecidedonthesesanctionsagainst
UkrainebackinAugust2015.
http://meduza.io/en/feature/2015/12/18/putin-s-lies
Senttime: 12/19/201508:43:28AM
FW:[FRIEVEITEMSTONOTE12-18][WD]EUdecidestoextendanti-Russiansanctions.........[WD]Sberbankshares&Russianstockindices
Subject:
collapseafterUkrainedefaultson"Russiandebt".....[VRT]DownwardSpiral:RussiasOilAddiction,PutinsPoliti...
Sent:Friday,December18,20152:57PM
Subject:Fwd:[FRIEVEITEMSTONOTE12-18][WD]EUdecidestoextendanti-Russiansanctions.........[WD]Sberbankshares&
RussianstockindicescollapseafterUkrainedefaultson"Russiandebt".....[VRT]DownwardSpiral:RussiasOilAddiction,PutinsPoliti...
Date:Fri,Dec18,2015at5:56PM
Subject:[FRIEVEITEMSTONOTE12-18][WD]EUdecidestoextendanti-Russiansanctions.........[WD]Sberbankshares
&RussianstockindicescollapseafterUkrainedefaultson"Russiandebt".....[VRT]DownwardSpiral:RussiasOilAddiction,
PutinsPoliticalSystemMutuallySustaining......[AF]HowRUCouldInstalla'HybridNavalBlockade'AgainstUA
Subject:EUdecidestoextendanti-Russiansanctions
<wderzko@pathcom.com>,bohdan.rn@gmail.com
EUdecidestoextendanti-Russiansanctions
18.12.2015|19:41
TheEuropeanUnionhasagreedtoextendsanctionsagainstRussia,accordingtoanUNIANcorrespondent.
REUTERS
"COREPER[ComitedesRepresentantsPermanents,ortheCommitteeofPermanentRepresentativesintheEuropeanUnion]hasagreedto
extendsanctionsagainstRussia,"aEuropeanCouncilrepresentativetoldtheUNIANcorrespondent.
ThedecisionwastakenataCOREPERmeetinginBrusselsonFriday.
ItisexpectedtobeformalizedbywrittenprocedureonMondayandpublishedintheOfficialJournaloftheEuropeanUniononTuesday.
AccordingtoReuters,themeasuresonenergy,bankinganddefencesectorswereprolongeduntiltheendofJuly2016.
ReadmoreonUNIAN:http://www.unian.info/politics/1216837-eu-decides-to-extend-anti-russian-sanctions.html
Subject:Sberbankshares,RussianstockindicescollapseafterUkrainedefaultson"Russiandebt"
Sberbankshares,RussianstockindicescollapseafterUkrainedefaultson"Russiandebt"
18.12.2015|16:40
OnDecember18,SberbanksharesshowedadecreasefollowingUkraine'sstatementonimposingamoratoriumonany
paymentsoftheRussiandebt,includingpaymentofa$3billionloanborrowedunderViktorYanukovych'spresidency.
REUTERS
AccordingtotheMoscowStockExchange,Sberbanksharesfellby3.6%.
Russia'sstockmarketalsoreactedtonewsfromUkraine.
TheMICEXindexdroppedby2.69%to1733.01points.
RTSIndexdippedby3.61%to766.47points.
READALSOUkraineimposesmoratoriumonDec2015Russianeurobond:YatsenyukAsUNIANreportedearlier,Pursuanttothecurrent
legislationanddebtliabilitiesassumed,UkraineannouncedamoratoriumonanypaymentsoftheRussiandebt,includingpaymentof$3
billionborrowedunderViktorYanukovych'spresidencyandwhichreachesmaturityinDecember2015,UkrainianPrimeMinisterArseniy
Yatsenyuksaidduringanextraordinarymeetingofthegovernment.
Totaldebtsubjecttothemoratoriumexceeds$3.58billion.
ReadmoreonUNIAN:http://www.unian.info/economics/1216472-sberbank-shares-russian-stock-indices-collapse-after-ukraine-defaults-
on-russian-debt.html
From:VRT
Subject:DownwardSpiral:RussiasOilAddiction,PutinsPoliticalSystemMutuallySustaining
To:<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
News/Europe
Analysts:RussiasOilAddiction,PutinsPoliticalSystem
MutuallySustaining
Print
Comment
Share:
PresidentVladimirPutin,speakingduringhisannualend-of-yearnewsconference,saidRussia'seconomyisshowingsignsofstabilizationdespiteplummetingoil
prices,Moscow,Dec.17,2015.
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DanielSchearf
December18,20151:07PM
MOSCOW
Russia'sleadersoftenvoicetheneedtodiversifytheRussianeconomyawayfromarelianceonthe
exportofrawmaterials,suchasoilandgas,inordertostabilizegrowth.
Revenuesfrompetroleumexportsmakeupalmosthalfthecountry'sfederalbudget.
AthisannualpressbriefingThursday,PresidentVladimirPutinrespondedtoconcernsabout
Russiaseconomy,whichisprojectedtocontractbyaboutabout4percentthisyear,withworldoil
pricesnowbelow$40abarrelandadevaluedcurrency.
Putinrepeatedtheoptimisticoutlookthattheeconomywouldsoonbegintogrow.
Proceedingfromthecurrentvalueofourexports,hesaid,thegovernmentisexpectingour
economytoachieveatleasta0.7percentgrowthin2016,1.9percentin2017and2.4percentin
2018.
ButPutinwentontoclarifythatthoseprojectionswerebasedonoilpricesof$50abarrel.Withthe
priceofoilnowlowerandvolatilityhigh,hesaid,furtheradjustmentswouldhavetobemade.
VladimirMilov,aformerRussiandeputyministerofenergywhonowheadstheDemocraticChoice
politicalparty,saidheexpectedoilpriceswouldcontinuetodrop,withfurthernegative
consequencesforthecountry.
FILE-VladimirMilov,aleaderoftheDemocraticChoiceparty,signsautographsduringarallyofparty'ssupportersinMoscow,June25,
2011.
Theaveragepriceofoilforthenextyear,thewholenextyear,mightbeintherangeof$35to$40,
whichissubstantiallylowerthanforecaststhathavebeenrecentlyincludedintheadoptedbudgetfor
2016,hesaid.So,theywillhavetoconsiderseverelycuttingfederalspending,whichissomething
thathasnotbeendoneoverthewhole16yearsofPutininpower.
Noquickadjustment
Still,Putinsaidthegovernmentwouldnotrushtoadjustthebudget,asthiswouldleadtoa
reductioninthefundingofboththesocialandrealsectors.However,headded,thegovernmentis
ofcourseworkingondifferentdevelopmentscenarios.
Putinrepeatedwell-wornmantrasontheeconomyaboutincreasingproductionandself-sufficiency
whilereducingredtape."Ofcourse,potentialGDPgrowthisnotlimitedtoourexport-related
opportunities,"hesaid."Wemustalsopromoteimportreplacement,whichisnotacure-all,butwe
believethatitwillhelpusretoolalargepartoftheproductionsectorandtheagricultureindustry.
TheRussianpresidentwentontosay:Wemustcertainlycontinueworkingtoimproveeconomic
management,tode-bureaucratizeoureconomy,andtocreatemoreattractiveconditionsfordoing
businessandforhelpingentrepreneursachievethegoalsthatarefacingthemandthenational
economyasawhole.
AccordingtoMilov,Russianpoliticianshavetalkedaboutdiversifyingtheeconomyawayfromoiland
gassincetheSovietera,buttheestablishedelites,especiallyunderPutin,benefittoomuchfromthe
tradetopayattentiontoanythingelse.
Diversificationalsorequiresworkinginstitutionslikeruleoflaw,civilrights,independentjudiciary,
andmanyotherthingswhichthesemineralresourcemafiasareobviouslynotinterestedin,hesaid.
SoIthinkthiswholeideaofdiversificationitsoundsgoodinpublicspeeches,butitstotally
contradictorywiththefundamentalsofthissystem,whichwasbuiltbyVladimirPutin.
So,obviously,economicreformveryquicklyleadstoanenvironmentwherePutinwouldbeonthe
brinkoflosingpoliticalpower,saidMilov.Thisisonemore[reason]toactuallyexpectthathewilltry
tosticktothecurrentsystemtothebitterendandnotletitgo.
RussiaslargestoilandgascompaniesarerunbyPutinsclosefriendsfromhisyearsinSt.
Petersburg:IgorSechiheadsthestateoilcompanyRosneft,whileAlexeyMillerrunsGazprom,
Russia'sstate-controllednaturalgasgiant.Asoilpriceshavetumbled,andRosneftstruggles,
Russiaisconsideringsellinga19percentstakeinthecompany.PutinsaidThursdaythatapartial
privatizationwaspossibleasthestatewouldstillretainmajoritycontrol.
Utilities,gascostmore
Despitethelowerworldoilprices,energycostsinutilitiesandatthegaspumphavegoneupfor
manyRussians,asconsumersarehitwithanunfavorablerubleexchangerate,over12percent
inflationandlowerdisposableincomes.
InthelargestindustrialactiontohitRussiainyears,hundredsoftruckersacrossRussialeda
weeks-longprotestagainsthigherroadtolls,blockinghighwaysandevenroadsleadingintoMoscow.
DespitethenotoriouslypoorqualityofRussia'sroads,thedoublingoftransporttaxesfor12-ton
truckswascriticizednotonlyforpooreconomictiming,butalsobecausethefeesarebeing
enforcedbyacompanycontrolledbyIgorRotenberg,whosefather,oligarchArkadyRotenberg,is
Putinsformerjudopartner.
OnThursday,Putindefendedtheratehikes,sayingthe12-tontruckscausedmoreroaddamage
thanothers.
Furthersocialprotestislikelyascertaingroupsarehitbytheailingeconomyandspendingcuts,
Milovsaid.
Wemightfaceverystrongdifficulties,economically,politically,andsometurbulence,"hesaid."But,
inevitably,IthinkRussiansocietywillrealizethatPutinhasledusintoatrap,andwehaveto
fundamentallychangethecurrentsystemtoachieveabetterfuture.Ithinkmoreandmorepeople
arerealizingthatnow.Itwillbeevenmoresoaseconomicdifficultiesareprogressing.
From:AndrewFink<finkandrewh@gmail.com>
Subject:HowRussiaCouldBlockadeUkraine[ED:NavalMoves.....MovesontheBlackSeaShelf......TakingaPage
FromPRC's'SCS'GameBook]
QuickScenario:HybridNavalBlockade
HowRussiacouldblockadeUkraine.
CouldRussianirregularscaptureZmiinyiIslandandblockadeUkraine?
RussiaistryingtoseizestillmoreofUkraine,butthistimeatsea.ThecurrentobjectofRussianaggressionistheOdeske
naturalgasfield,locatedintheBlackSeaabout100kmEastoftheUkrainiancoastlineinOdesaOblastandabout120
kmoffshoreofRussian-occupiedCrimea.However,itisconnectedviapipelinetoCrimea,soRussiaisinsistingthatitis
nowRussian.TASSbluntlystatedThedepositsontheBlackSeashelfbecameRussianafterCrimeahadreunitedwith
Russia
GreedisasufficientmotiveforthislatestRussianmove,buttheremayalsobeamilitarylogicatworkhere.Russian
propagandaoutletsarereiteratingthewordsoftheGeneraldirectorofChernomorneftegazIgorShabanovthatRussian
gasrigsintheUkrainianmaritimezoneneedprotectionfromterrorismorUkrainiannavalvessels.Therewasevenan
incidentearlierthisweekwhenaRussianwarshipandaRussiancoastguardshipforcedavesselflyingtheTurkishflag
tochangethe(sic)courseinthedirectionsafeforthetransportconvoy.(TASS)Russiahasalreadyusedthethreatof
forcetomakeavesselchangecourseinUkrainianwaters.
Readmore
Senttime: 12/19/201508:44:47AM
FW:[SATMORNINGPOST/EST]UAhalts$3bnRUdebtrepayment....."HowBLDisappointedRUinUAandSY"[INTERESTING
Subject:
READ].....RUBombingCutsLifelinetoSYCivilianAid.....PBRespondstoSYUNMeeting......KasparovEquatesPutinwithCorleone....Bush:Put
Sent:Saturday,December19,20158:42AM
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:[SATMORNINGPOST/EST]UAhalts$3bnRUdebtrepayment....."HowBLDisappointedRUinUAandSY"[INTERESTING
READ].....RUBombingCutsLifelinetoSYCivilianAid.....PBRespondstoSYUNMeeting......KasparovEquatesPutinwithCorleone....Bush:
Puti...
Subject:Ukrainehalts$3bnRussiadebtrepayment-BBCNews
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35132258
Ukrainehalts$3bnRussiadebtrepayment
AFPTensionsbetweenRussiaandUkrainehaveincludedargumentsovergassupplies
Ukrainewillnotrepaya$3bndebtowedtoRussiabythisweekend,claimingRussiahasrefusedtoaccept
repaymenttermsalreadyofferedtootherinternationalcreditors.
ThemoratoriummeansthatUkraineislikelytodefaultonthedebt,whichisdueonSunday.
Inaddition,repaymentof$507mofUkrainiancommercialdebtheldbyRussianbankswillalsobehalted.
ThecountrieshavebeenatloggerheadssinceRussiaannexedCrimealastyear.
Ukraine'sPrimeMinister,ArsenyYatseniuk,saidUkrainehadimposedamoratoriumonthepaymentofa$3bn
eurobondheldentirelybyRussia,whichisduetomatureon20December.
Hedidnotsayhowlongthemoratoriumwouldlast.MoscowhadpreviouslysaiditwouldtakeUkrainetocourtifit
didnotpayontime.
Themoratoriumwillbeinplace"untiltheacceptanceofourrestructuringproposalsortheadoptionoftherelevant
courtdecision",MrYatseniuktoldhisgovernment.
"WearepreparedforcourtactionfromtheRussianside."
RelationsbetweenthetwocountrieshavebeentensesinceRussiaannexedtheCrimeanpeninsulain2014.
UkraineandtheWesthavealsoaccusedRussiaofarmingandaidingseparatistrebelsineasternUkraine,allegations
thatRussiahasdenied.
InNovember,RussianenergysupplierGazpromhaltedgassuppliestoUkraine.
OnWednesday,RussiasaiditwouldsuspendatradepactwithUkrainethatwouldexcludethecountryfromafree
tradezonethatincludesformerSovietcountriesfrom1January.
Ukrainesaiditis"readytopaytheprice"tojoinanEUfreetradezonefromthatdate.
From:KL
Subject:LookatLukashenko[Ed:Lukashenk(a)SeemstoUnderstandPutinBetterThanTrumpDoes]
To:
ttp://belarusdigest.com/story/how-belarus-disappointed-russia-ukraine-and-syria-24066
HowBelarusDisappointedRussiaInUkraineAnd
Syria
SiarheiBohdan18December2015
NewUkrainianArmouredVehicleDesignedwithBelarusHelp.Image:UkraineMinistryofInternalAffairs
Minsk
consistentlyavoidssupportingMoscowinUkraineandSyria.Toputit
mildly.Afterall,on7December,UkrainianInternalMinisterAvakov
inauguratedthenewUkrainianarmouredvehicleVartadesignedin
cooperationwith"Belarusianengineers".
ItbecamejustonemoreofaseriesofexamplesofBelarus-Ukrainian
defencecooperation.Lateron,theBelarusianDefenceMinistry
deniedclaimsthatitsupportedRussia'spositioninthelatter'sdisputewithTurkey.
BelarusrisksestrangingitsRussianally,butnotbecauseitwantstoearnextramoneyin
UkraineorfromconservativeArabregimes.MinskstrivestoimproverelationswithRussia's
opponentsbecausetheKremlinhasshownitselfwillingtomakeradicalforeignpolicymoves.
KremlinTrash:BelarusianarmsforISIS
Lastweek,RussianpropagandaoutletEurasiaDailypublishedacommentarywiththe
eloquenttitleBelarusian'Neutrality'isHypocrisyonSpilledBlood.Itsummarisedaseriesof
articlesinwhichexpertsclosetotheKremlinaccusedBelarusofanti-Russianpoliciesin
UkraineandSyria.
WhenprominentRussianexpertscriticiseMinskinhalfadozenarticlesonEurasiaDailyit
meansthattheKremlinwantsitsBelarusianpartnertounderstandtheseriousnessofthe
accusations.TheleadingexpertonBelarusattheInstituteforStudiesofCISCountries,
AlexanderFadeev,pointedoutthatBelarussuppliedUkrainewithfuel,dual-usegoodsand
componentsforarmssystems.HeemphasisedthatMinskdiditnotonlyforeconomicbut
alsopoliticalreasons:inotherwords,toimproverelationswiththeWest.
LukashenkanotonlyearnsmoneyinUkrainebutalsosaystotheWest:Iamyours,don'tstagea
MaidaninBelarus
On11December,aRussianpoliticalanalystworkingattheprestigiousHigherSchoolof
EconomicscalledAndreiSuzdaltsevdevelopedthisideafurther.Accordingtohim,
LukashenkanotonlyearnsmoneyinUkrainebutalsosaystotheWest:Iamyours,don't
stageaMaidaninBelarus.
RussianpoliticalcommentatorEvgenySatanovskiearlieraccusedBelarusofworkingwith
TurkeyandQataragainstRussiaintheMiddleEast.NowhehastakenhiscriticismofMinskto
theextreme.Accordingtohim,whilepreviouslyRussia'sopponentsintheMiddleEast
QatarandUAEpurchasedarmsforISISinSerbiaandNorthKorea,nowtheydoitmostlyin
Minsk.Satanovskiunderlined,They[ISIS]aregoingtousetheseweapons.Whetheritwillbe
againstus[Russians],Syrians,Iraniansorcivilianswhotheymurderisasecondaryquestion.
CooperationwithUkraine:impossibletohide
RidiculousaccusationsofBelarussellingweaponstoISISwillnotfoolanybody.In,factitis
BelarusianpolicyinUkraineandnotSyriawhichenragesMoscow.AndevidenceofBelarus-
Ukrainiancooperationabounds.AyearagoitseemedthatBelarusmightmerelytake
advantageofthesituationtoearnsomemoneysupplyingUkrainewithwarmaterials.Now,
almosttwoyearsintotheDonbaswar,MinskcontinuestocooperatewithKyiv,provingthatthis
collaborationispartofBelarus'longer-termstrategyintheregion.
Kyiv-basedjournalistIhorTyshkevichhasrecentlypublishedinKhvyliaanewinvestigative
overviewofBelarus-Ukrainiancooperation.HebelievesthatthisyearBelarusianfirmscould
earnabout$90-$100mfrommilitary-relevantdeals(withoutfuel)inUkraine.
Somethingofthisbusinessisevident,liketheriseofBelarus'shareintheUkrainianaircraft
fuelmarketfrom0%beforethewarto45%,orstatisticaldataonbilateraltradewhichshow
transfersofnumerousgoodsforprobablemilitaryuse.
Indeed,whilein2014BelarussoldUkraine$5mworthof
Stugna-Panti-tankguidedmissile
aircraft,inthefirsthalfof2015thisfigureroseto$14.4m.In2015,KyivboughtfromBelarus
specialtrucksworth$1.7m,i.e.,therespectiveexportroseby210%comparedwith2014.
Manypossibleindicatorsofcooperationlackdirectevidence,yetlookconvincing.For
example,TyshkevichpointsoutthattheUkrainianarmyhasstartedtoreceivelargequantities
ofthenewanti-tankmissilesystemStugna.Ukraineproducesonlythemissileusedinthis
system,whiletherestisdeliveredbyMinsk-basedfirmPeleng.
WhyMinskrisksworkingwithKyiv
ThestatisticsshowthatthoughBelarushasearnedsomemoneyfromthesetransactions,this
aloneisnotenoughtobeworththeriskswhichtheseUkrainiandealsposetoBelarus-
Russianrelations.Minskisnotlookingformoney.
MinskstrivestomaintainandimproverelationswithopponentsofMoscowintheregionandbeyond
(firstofalltheEU)
TheRussianexpertsquotedabovegotitright:politicsdeterminesthebehaviourofBelarusian
government.Firstofall,Minskstrivestomaintainandimproverelationswithopponentsof
Moscowintheregionandbeyond(firstofalltheEU)becausethedevelopmentsinCrimea
andtheDonbashaveprofoundlyshockedit.Itisnotsurethatsomethingofthiskindcouldnot
happeninBelarusandislookingeverywhereforpartnerswhowouldhelppreventor,if
necessaryresist,suchaneventuality.
Atthesametime,BelarushasreachedthelimitsofitscooperationwithRussiaassetbythe
Kremlin.Inthefieldofmilitaryindustrialcooperation,Minskhassufferednumerous
disappointments.Forinstance,itsplanstoestablishjointlywithRussiaanassembly
productionofaircraftinBelarusintheearly2010sendedwithnothing.
Earlier,inthelate2000s,BelarusnegotiatedwiththeKremlinevenmorefar-reachingplans
forproducingtopdefenceproductsinBelarus.Amongthemwereshort-rangeballisticmissile
systems(Iskander),surface-to-airmissilesystems(Tor)andlaunchersformobile
intercontinentalballisticmissile(Topol).Tonoavail.
UkrainegivesBelarusmilitarytechnologies
MinskthenpubliclyturnedtoChinaforsomeoftheseopportunities,butalsotoUkraine,
especiallyafterCrimea.Interestingly,theBelarusiangeneralPiatroRahazheuskiwhohad
negotiatedwithMoscowpossibleBelarusianparticipationin
producingIskandersandTorslateronoptedtoworkwithUkrainians.
ThisformerDeputyDefenceMinisterofBelarusandlaterDeputyChairmanoftheState
MilitaryIndustrialCommitteeisnowthedirectoroftheBelarusianofficeoftheUkrainianMotor
SichCompany.MotorSichhasgivenBelarussomethingRussiadenied:theUkrainian
companyestablishedahelicoptersrepairfacilityinOrshaandplanstoextendit.
UkrainehelpsBelaruswithexpertiseandtechnology,notonlyconcerningaviationbutalsotanksand
missiles
TyshkevichassertsthatUkrainehelpsBelaruswithexpertiseandtechnology,notonly
concerningaviationbutalsotanksandmissiles.RussianscholarSuzdaltsevonEurasia
Dailyagrees:"LukashenkaistryingtogetfromUkrainethearmswhichRussiatakinginto
accountthenotverytrustingrelationsbetweenMinskandMoscowcannotgivehim."
TyshkevichandSuzdaltsevassumethatUkrainiansmighthaveparticipatedindesigningthe
BelarusianPalanezmultiplelaunchrocketsystem.OfficiallyaBelarus-Chineseproduct,
PalanezshootsfurtherthantheChineseWS-2andWS-3systemswhichpresumablyserved
asprototypesforPalanez.SinceitsfirstpublicdemonstrationinMay,themediahas
speculatedaboutUkrainian(andRussian)involvementindesigningthisweapon.
Allinall,Belarus'contactswiththeUkrainianandArabregimesopposingRussiacannotbe
dismissedastheopportunisticpursuitofeasymoney.Minskdislikesthepoliciesofthe
currentRussiangovernmentwhichthreatentoredrawinternationalborders.Moreover,ithas
realisedthattheKremlintakesitsalliancewithBelarusforgrantedanddoesnotdealwithitas
apartner.
SiarheiBohdanisaResearchDirectorattheOstrogorskiCentre.Heisanalumnusofthe
BelarusStateUniversityandEuropeanHumanitiesUniversityinLithuania.
Subject:[HuffPost]RussianAirstrikesCutOffSyrians'LifelineToCrucialAid
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/russian-airstrikes-humanitarian-crisis-syria_5672ed64e4b0648fe3027fdb
RussianAirstrikesCutOffSyrians'LifelineTo
CrucialAid
Everyweek,webringyouoneoverlookedaspectofstoriesthatmadenewsinrecentdays.Didyounoticethe
mediaforgotallaboutanotherstory'sbasicfacts?Tweet@TheWorldPostorletusknowonourFacebook
page.
TheSyrianandRussianairforceshavepoundedasmallstripofrebel-controlledterritorynearSyriasborderwith
Turkeyinrecentweeks,inwhatcouldbeoneofthemostdecisivebattlesinSyriasnearlyfive-yearwar.
Itcouldalso,however,sparkanewhumanitariancrisisinthecountry.TheAzazcorridor,apassagewaythatis5to
15kilometerswideandrunsfromtheTurkishbordertotheSyriancityofAleppo,providesacriticallifelineforaid
andsuppliesforoverhalfamillionSyrians.Inrecentweeks,severalaidgroupshavebeenforcedtosuspendorscale
backoperationsintheareaafterairstrikeshitvehicleconvoysandcivilianinfrastructure.
ThisisthemainroutethroughwhichaidisbroughtintonorthernSyria,saidChristyDelafield,senior
communicationsofficerforhumanitarianaidgroupMercyCorps,whichhadtosuspendcross-borderaidmultiple
timesinrecentweeks.
ASSOCIATEDPRESS
MercyCorps,whichisoneofthemainprovidersoffoodaidinSyria,hasstockpilesofsuppliesinsidethecountry,
butevendistributingthemhasbecomemoredifficultanddangerous.Thesurgeinairstrikesleavespeoplecutoff,
shesaid.
Some600,000people--bothresidentsanddisplacedSyrians--liveintheAzazdistrictandeastAleppo,according
toDoctorsWithoutBorders,whichhadtobrieflysuspenddistributionofreliefintheareaearlierthismonth.
Forpeopleindamagedhomesorwholiveindisplacedshelteringintentedcampswithfewpossessions,thearrival
ofwintermakesthesituationworse,CarlosFrancisco,theheadofmissionforDoctorsWithoutBordersinSyria,
toldTheWorldPost.Itsalsohardforthemtogetmedicalcare,eveninemergencies,hesaid.Mostofthemedical
facilitiesintheareahavebeentargetedatonepointoranotherduringtheSyrianwar.
BARAA
AL-HALABI/AFP/GettyImagesThousandshavegatheredincampsneartheTurkishborder,includingatBabal-
Salam.
RussiahasbeenbombingopponentsofSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assadindifferentpartsofthecountrysincelate
September.WhiletheKremlininsistsitisonlytargetingextremistgroups,mostRussianairstrikeshavehitareas
controlledbyarangeofoppositiongroups,fromalQaedasSyrianaffiliatetoWestern-backedfighters.
MoscowsinterventionintheSyrianconflicthasheightenedtensionsbetweenRussia,along-standingAssadally,and
countriesthatbacktheSyrianopposition,mostnotablyTurkey.OnNov.24,TurkeyshotdownaRussianjetthat
AnkarasaidhadstrayedovertheSyrianborderintoTurkishterritory.RussianPresidentVladimirPutinvowed
payback.
Inthedaysandweeksthatfollowed,SyrianandRussianairstrikessharplyincreasedinnorthernSyria,accordingto
theUnitedNations'humanitarianagencyOCHA.Theyhitmarketsandbakeries,hospitalsandschools.Dozensof
civiliancasualtieswerereported.
TheairstrikesnudgedclosertoTurkeysborder,strikingrepeatedlyattrucksgatheredintransportationdepotsnear
twobordercrossings--Babal-HawainnorthIdlibandBabal-SalamonthenorthernedgeoftheAzazcorridor.
ResidentsidentifiedsomeofthewarplanesasRussian.
RushavasaldrsnnalevlerierisindebraktyardmTIR'larnaSivilSavunmaekiplerimizmdahale
ediyor.
HH(@ihhinsaniyardim)11:08AM-25Nov2015
FootagefromtheTurkishaidgroupHumanitarianReliefFoundationshowedtrucksburningneartheborder
afterareportedairstrikeinlateNovember.
Thetargetingofroadsandvehiclescausedalarmamonghumanitarianorganizationsthatdependontheroadfrom
TurkeytoAleppotobringfood,fuelandemergencyaidtoSyriancivilians.Aftertheairstrikes,severaltransportation
companiesthatbringaidandothergoodsintothecountrysuspendedsupplyroutes.Severalhumanitarian
organizationshavebeenforcedtohaltorreducetheiractivitiesinthearea,theU.N.agencysaid.
Itissimplynotsafeenoughforourstaff,ourpartnersorthepeopleinneedtohavetheactivitiesgoasnormalduring
thesecircumstances,whereweseearangeofcivilianstructuresandpropertiesbeinghit,saidBendikSrvig,
regionaladviserfortheNorwegianRefugeeCouncil,whichhastemporarilysuspendedactivitiesintheareaduetothe
bombing.TheAzazcorridorhasbeenalifelinetoAleppoandsurroundingareassincetheearlydaysoftheconflict.
TheareahasalsoprovidedsomerefugeforhundredsofthousandsofSyriansdisplacedbyconflictinotherpartsof
thecountry.
Theareahasbeenattackedbefore,butduetoitsproximitytotheTurkishborders,manyhaveconsideredit
relativelysafe,atleastincomparisontotheavailablealternativesacrosstheoppositionheldareas,Srvigsaid.
PAUL
GYPTEAU/AFP/GettyImagesRussia,along-timeAssadally,saysitisfightingextremistgroups,butanalystsand
U.S.officialssaytheyhavetargetedWestern-backedoppositionfighters.
AnalystssaytheSyrianregimeanditsRussianallyhopetocutoffoppositionfightersfromTurkishsuppliesandtake
fullcontrolofthecityofAleppo--thelargestcityinSyriabeforethewar.
Meanwhile,therebels,whoincludeTurkmenrebelssupportedbyTurkeyandanumbrellacoalitioncalledJaishal-
Fatah,areunderattackonallothersides--theKurdishDemocraticUnionPartyinthewest,theself-described
IslamicStatetotheeast,andtheSyrianregimeandalliesinthesouth.
TheAzazcorridorhasbecometheepicenterofthewar,UniversityofLyonassociateprofessorFabriceBalanche
wroteinareportforTheWashingtonInstituteforNearEastPolicylastweek.
TheWashingtonInstituteforNearEastPolicy
Thebombsarecomingnearer,andmanySyrianshavenowherelefttoflee.Turkeyofficiallycloseditsborder
crossingswithSyriainMarch,andaccordingtoHumanRightsWatch,hasrecentlycrackeddownonSyrianstrying
toslipacrosstheborderafterpromisingEuropetostemtheflowofmigrantsandrefugeesintothecontinent.
Theresahugeincreaseinciviliancasualties,anewwaveofdisplacement,andwithEuropeanpressureonTurkeyto
keeptheirbordersecure,alotofpeoplefeeltrappedinbetween,Delafieldsaid.
ReadmoreontheconflictinSyria:
-ADefectorSmuggledEvidenceOfMassAtrocitiesOutOfSyria.HereAreTheVictimsStories
-MostDisplacedSyriansAren'tRefugees.They'reTrappedInsideTheCountry
-HauntedByWar,ManySyrianKidsHaveNoPsychologicalSupport.ThisGroupWantsToChangeThat
-Heart-WrenchingVideoShowsChildrenWoundedBySyrianAirstrikes
Subject:Re:[JohnDDailyDigest12-18]Fwd:Thefermentgrows:"AngryRussianBUSINESSMENturnonKremlin,"......[RUS
C]TrumpDefendsPutinKillingJournalists.......[GJY]UNBELIEVABLE:RussiaCallingShotsonSyriaatUN........[ED:PB
respondstoSYUNMeetingandmore]
To:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
Walter,it'sjusthardtobelieveUkraineisnotinplayinNewYorkthequestionisnot"if"but"how"IfPutinsavesAssad
(whichlooksprettygoodnow),wemaywellfindISIS'snextmovetobeinYemenandSaudiRightnowtheSaudi'saregiving
himabiggerheadachethanUA.HecanalwaysreturnlatertoUA(andmostcertainlywill).Hedoesn'thavetotrytotake
Saudi,justscaretheprincesenoughtoletthepriceofoilfloatbackupenoughtokeephiminbusiness.And,therearelotsof
folksonthissideofthepondwhowouldliketoseetheSaudi'sraisepricesaswell.SowecouldseeacoalitionofUS,RUand
EU(German)businessinterestspushingforashifttowards"makenicetoPutie".Evenifsanctionsremain,ariseinoilprices
wouldgivePutinalotofbreathingroom.Inexchange,hepullsbackhissupportofISISexpansion(thedotsaremurky,but
emerging)and,withoutlosinginSyria,hecanputhisfocusbackonUA.Inthemeantime,hecontinuesfundingandorchestrating
chaosinUARadawithlotsofcashfundingattackdogsonRussianowned/controlledmedia,forgingbizarrepoliticalalliancesto
furtherdiscordandmalignantdezinformtokeepthecatsfighting.
Subject:ChessmasterGarryKasparovequatesPutinwithDonCorleone
ChessmasterGarryKasparovequatesPutinwithDonCorleone
ByJillDoughertyDecember18at12:46PM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/chess-master-garry-kasparov-equates-putin-with-don-corleone/2015/12/18/79064a58-
8c7e-11e5-baf4-bdf37355da0c_story.html
JillDoughertywasCNNsMoscowbureauchieffrom1997to2005.ShealsoservedasCNNsWhiteHousecorrespondent,
foreignaffairscorrespondentandmanagingeditorforAsia/Pacific.
WhenGarryKasparovwasthechesschampionoftheworld,hehadanickname:thebeastfromBaku,areferencebothtohis
birthplaceintheformerSovietrepublicofAzerbaijanandtohistake-no-prisonersstyleofplaying.
Aggressiveandarrogant,hewasthemasterofattack.In2005,afteratwo-decadecareer,heretiredfromthegametojoin
Russiaspro-democracymovementand,asheexplainsinhisbook,WinterIsComing,topushbackagainsttherisingtideof
repressionscomingfromtheKremlin.
InthisscreedagainstVladimirPutin,Kasparovgoesontheoffensiveoncemore.PutinsRussiaisclearlythebiggestandmost
dangerousthreatfacingtheworldtoday,hewrites.PutinisalostcauseandRussiawillalsobealostcauseuntilheis
gone.Now,withPutinlaunchinganaircampaigninSyria,KasparovrecentlytoldCNN.comthatPutinneedsasteadydietof
escalatingconflict,andheblastedtheWestforplayingthedictatorspurelytacticalgame,andlosing.
Inhisnewbook,Kasparovgoesshockinglyfurther.InhisManicheanuniverse,boththeRussianpresidentandtheIslamicState
terroristorganizationarethreatstothemodernworldyetPutin,heargues,isworsehehasnukestobackhimup.
"WinterIsComing:WhyVladimirPutinandtheEnemiesoftheFreeWorldMustBeStopped"byGarryKasparov(PublicAffairs)
[GarryKasparovonhisnextbookandwhyPutinislikeTywinLannister]
BothPutinandtheIslamicStatearewagingawaronmodernity,KasparovwroteintheWallStreetJournalinJanuary.Putin
longsfortheunlimitedpoweroftheczarstheIslamicStateslashesitswaytowardamedievalcaliphate.BothrejectWestern
values,heargues,andthisisthecommonthreadconnectingthePutinattackonUkraineandthemurderousIslam-derivied
ideologythatfuelsjihadistslikethePariskillers.
WhilethereaderdigeststhisversionofPutintheInternationalTerrorist,Kasparovalsoemploysthewell-worntropeofPutinas
mafiadon.ThebestwaytounderstandtheRussianpresident,hesays,istoreadMarioPuzosGodfathertrilogy,withPutinas
DonVitoCorleone.Insteadofthemafiadonsgamblingandbootlegging,Russiasdictatorialpetro-staterunsonoil,moneyand
power.
Thatcomparisonhasbeenmademanytimesbefore,andotherbooksonPutinhaveanalyzedindetailhissystemofcentralized
control,calledthepowervertical,alongwiththeincestuousrelationshipsbetweengovernmentofficialsandstate-owned
corporations.
KasparovtracesthehighpointsofPutins15years(sofar)inpower,buthisbookofferslittlethatwouldbefreshtomanyreaders.
Insomerespects,thathardlymatters.Kasparovisonadifferentmission:toassessblameandtheresplentytogoaround,
beginningwithwhathecallsthecrimesandmisdemeanorsofPutinspredecessors,SovietPresidentMikhailGorbachevand
Russiasfirstpresident,BorisYeltsin.
CouldRussiasdemocracyactivists,includingKasparov,haveavertedthedownwardspiralthatledtoPutin?No,Kasparovsays
theyneverhadachance.Slandered,physicallyassaulted,harassedbypoliceand,inthecaseofBorisNemtsov,murdered,
Russiasreformers,Kasparovinsists,wereblockedateveryturnfrombuildingamovementthatcouldchallengetheKremlin.
Inhisblack-and-whitetelling,theresnoroomfordeepanalysisofthecriticalquestionofwhyRussiasliberalsfailedtocoalesce.
Insteadtheresjustafleetingreferencetotheirinternalfeuding,whichhedescribesastheYeltsin-eracivilwarmentality.
KasparovreserveshisgreatestirefortheWest,theUnitedStatesand,mostofall,PresidentObamaforwhatheconsiderscraven
panderingtoPutin.Despitetheattemptstorebrandthemethodasengagement,hesneers,thesmellofappeasementis
impossibletomask.
AsRussianwarplanescarryoutbombingmissionsinSyria,theWhiteHousestandsidlyby,KasparovtoldNewsweekinOctober:
TheUnitedStateshasnointerestinstandinguptoVladimirPutinslatestgambitatleastnotinanywaythatwoulddeterhim.
U.S.presidentsinparticular,hesaysinhisbook,alwaysplacedfartoomuchfaithinindividualsinRussia,insteadofsupporting
thestructuralandinstitutionalreformsthatcouldhaveguaranteedthesurvivalofdemocracy.HeevencriticizesColdWarriors
suchasDickCheney,DonaldRumsfeldandCondoleezzaRiceforcavingintotheRussianruler.
KasparovyearnsfortheveritiesoftheColdWar,thetouchstoneofwhatheconsiderstherightwaytodealwithadictatorship:
notjustdefendingvaluesbutprojectingthemaggressively.
Instead,hesays,theWesthascoddledRussia,strokingitsego,treatingitlikethesuperpowertheSovietUnionusedtobe,rather
thanpromotingWesternvaluesanddemandingthatMoscowadheretostandardsofhumanrights.Asaresult,hebelieves,Russia
hasslippedbackintototalitarianism.
Dictatorsonlystopwhentheyarestopped,andappeasingPutinwithUkrainewillonlystokehisappetiteformoreconquests,he
warns.Ukraineisjustonebattlethefreeworldwouldliketoignoreinalargerwaritrefusestoacknowledgeevenexists.
InKasparovsworld,theWestassumesmythic,omnipotentproportions.IgnoringtherolesthatthecrumblingSovieteconomyand
worldoilpricesplayedinthedemiseoftheU.S.S.R.,Kasparovclaimsthatitwasthefreeworldthathadbroughtdownthe
SovietUnion,andthatitwastheWestsindifferenceandfecklessnessthatallowedPutintoputanendtothedemocratic
experimentinRussia.
ThisisanItoldyousobookofthehighestorder.Putinhasthehabitofmakingmeintoanaccurateprophet,Kasparovwrites,
butaverydisappointedRussian.
Thereareplentyofshouldve,wouldve,couldvesinWinterIsComing.Backinthe90s,Kasparovclaims,ifGeorgeW.
Bushsfreedompromotionagendahadexisted,itwouldhavehadatremendouspositiveeffect...whenthebadguyswere
alreadyindisarray.
ButcouldWashingtonhavestoppedthebadguys?Duringtheearly90stheUnitedStateswasmoreconcernedaboutRussia
emergingfromtheashesoftheSovietUnionwithoutacivilwaroranuclearcatastrophethanitwasinscoldingYeltsinforhisanti-
democraticactions,suchascrushingarevoltbyorderingtankstoopenfireontheRussianWhiteHouse.
Real-worlddecisionsbasedonhardchoiceshavenoplaceinKasparovsworld.TheWest,itseems,justhastogrowlatPutinand
hewillstopinhistracks.IntheuniversewhereMcCainispresident,PutindoesnotinvadeUkraine,hesays,withastraightface.
Kasparov,inhisowneyes,isachampionprognosticatoraboutwhatPutinwilltrynextandwhattheWestfearstodotostop
him.
AsinUkraine,hepredictsinhisNewsweekcommentary,PutinwillstayinSyriauntilitnolongersuitshim.Hehasnolong-term
strategicgoalsbeyondcreatingchaosandweakeningthealliancesofthefreeworldwhereverpossible.
Thismaybetrue,butKasparov,throughoutthisbook,seemsmoreexasperatedbytheWestsunwillingnesstorespondthanby
Putinsaggressiveness.
EveryoneistellingmehowrightIwas.But,hecomplains,fewofhisrecommendationshavebeenenacted.SomehowI
managedtounderestimatethecowardiceoftheWesternworldonceagain.
Whatarethoserecommendations?Forgetengagement,Kasparovsays,whetherwithPutinortheIslamicState.Instead,his
prescriptionisback-to-the-future:No,todefeatthemwillrequiretheunityandtheresolveandtheprinciplesthatwontheCold
War.
Kasparovproposesanewalliancefortheworld,withaglobalMagnaCarta,adeclarationoffundamentalrightsrecognizedby
allmembers,whichupholdsandenforcestheUniversalDeclarationofHumanRights.
ButKasparovalsowantsregimechangeinRussia.Stopcoddlingrogueregimesandsponsorsofterror,hesays.Putinsnature
cannotbechanged,andPutincannotbeappeased.Hemustbecontainedandoverthrown.
HeurgesEuropesleaderstostanduptotheKremlinbutalsopredictsthattheWestwillcaveagain.Itsclearatthemoment
thatthedemocraciesofthetwenty-firstcenturyarenotreadyforthisfight,Kasparovsays.Itisstillanopenquestionwhetheror
nottheycanandwillmakethemselvesready.
Fullofgeneralities,sound-bitecallstoactionandcomplaintsabouttheWestsinaction,WinterIsComing,writtenwithMig
Greengard,readsmorelikealongblogpostthanabook.
Missingarethoughtfulexaminationsofnumerousissues,forexample,recognitionofwhattheRussianpeoplethemselvesmightdo
topromotechange.KasparovclaimsthattheonlywayPutinsrulewillendisiftheRussianpeopleandPutinselitesunderstand
theyhavenofutureaslongasheisthere.ButheseemstobelievethatitstheWestsresponsibilitytoconvincethemofthatfact.
Putinisnomasterstrategist,Kasparovscoffs,callinghimanaggressivepokerplayerfacingweakoppositionfromaWestern
worldthathasbecomesoriskaversethatitwouldratherfoldthancallanybluff,nomatterhowgooditscardsare.
TheRussianpeople,however,areinthisgame,too.Somearefoldingtheircardsandfleeingthecountry.Otherskeepplaying,
evenifthedeckisstackedagainstthem.Theoverwhelmingmajority,ifyoubelieveRussianopinionpolls,arestillstickingwiththe
manwhodealsthecards.
Chess,however,isamorecomplexgameofstrategy.Asagrandmaster,Kasparovplayedtowin.Asapro-democracyactivistin
Russia,hescaughtinalosingstreak.HenowlivesinNewYork,afactthatrankles.
IoftensaidthatPutinwasaRussianproblemforRussiatosolve,hewrites,butthathewouldsoonbearegionalproblemand
thenaglobalproblemifhisambitionswereignored,adding:ItiscoldcomforttobetoldYouwereright!
Subject:"IthinkPutinisplayingwith[America]likeaStradivarius-JebBush
JebBush:PutinPlayingAmericaTheWayThatTrumpPlaysThePress
Thisisallagamefortheseguys,BushsaidoftheRussianpresidentsendorsementofhisRepublicanrival.
Dec.18,2015,at12:45p.m.
ChristopherMassie
BuzzFeedNewsReporter
JebBushsaidonThursdaythatRussianPresidentVladimirPutinsendorsementofhisopponentDonaldTrumpshowedthatPutin
wasplayingAmericathewaythatTrumpplaysthepress.
TheformerFloridaGov.madethecommentonMichaelMedvedsradioshow,afterthehostaskedhimabouttheRussianleaders
endorsementofBushsGOPrival.
IthinkPutinisplayingwithuslikeaStradivarius,Bushsaid,startingtoapplythesameanalogytoPutinthatheappliedto
Trumpearlierthismonth.Hesplayingus,America,thewaythatTrumpplaysthepress.Thisisallagamefortheseguys.Butwe
haveastakeintheMiddleEast.Wecantpullback.WecantbanallMuslimscomingintoourcountryandexpecttocreatea
coalitionwhichwouldbeessentialforthelong-termstabilityofSyriaandIraq.
BushalsocriticizedwhathecalledTrumpsapparentaffinityforPutin.
Andhisproposalsarejustcrazy,BushsaidofTrump.Imean,tosaythatyougetyourmilitaryadvicefromtheshows.To
suggestthatHillaryClintonwoulddoagoodjobnegotiatingwithIran,betterthananybodyelse.Thesearethethingsthathes
said.HehasastrongfeelingofapparentlyaffinitytowardsVladimirPutin,oneofthegreatdespotsofourtime.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/christophermassie/jeb-bush-putin-playing-america-the-way-that-trump-plays-the#.naWWGxlaA
Senttime: 12/19/201508:44:47AM
FW:[SATMORNINGPOST/EST]UAhalts$3bnRUdebtrepayment....."HowBLDisappointedRUinUAandSY"[INTERESTING
Subject:
READ].....RUBombingCutsLifelinetoSYCivilianAid.....PBRespondstoSYUNMeeting......KasparovEquatesPutinwithCorleone....Bush:Put
Sent:Saturday,December19,20158:42AM
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:[SATMORNINGPOST/EST]UAhalts$3bnRUdebtrepayment....."HowBLDisappointedRUinUAandSY"[INTERESTING
READ].....RUBombingCutsLifelinetoSYCivilianAid.....PBRespondstoSYUNMeeting......KasparovEquatesPutinwithCorleone....Bush:
Puti...
Subject:Ukrainehalts$3bnRussiadebtrepayment-BBCNews
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35132258
Ukrainehalts$3bnRussiadebtrepayment
AFPTensionsbetweenRussiaandUkrainehaveincludedargumentsovergassupplies
Ukrainewillnotrepaya$3bndebtowedtoRussiabythisweekend,claimingRussiahasrefusedtoaccept
repaymenttermsalreadyofferedtootherinternationalcreditors.
ThemoratoriummeansthatUkraineislikelytodefaultonthedebt,whichisdueonSunday.
Inaddition,repaymentof$507mofUkrainiancommercialdebtheldbyRussianbankswillalsobehalted.
ThecountrieshavebeenatloggerheadssinceRussiaannexedCrimealastyear.
Ukraine'sPrimeMinister,ArsenyYatseniuk,saidUkrainehadimposedamoratoriumonthepaymentofa$3bn
eurobondheldentirelybyRussia,whichisduetomatureon20December.
Hedidnotsayhowlongthemoratoriumwouldlast.MoscowhadpreviouslysaiditwouldtakeUkrainetocourtifit
didnotpayontime.
Themoratoriumwillbeinplace"untiltheacceptanceofourrestructuringproposalsortheadoptionoftherelevant
courtdecision",MrYatseniuktoldhisgovernment.
"WearepreparedforcourtactionfromtheRussianside."
RelationsbetweenthetwocountrieshavebeentensesinceRussiaannexedtheCrimeanpeninsulain2014.
UkraineandtheWesthavealsoaccusedRussiaofarmingandaidingseparatistrebelsineasternUkraine,allegations
thatRussiahasdenied.
InNovember,RussianenergysupplierGazpromhaltedgassuppliestoUkraine.
OnWednesday,RussiasaiditwouldsuspendatradepactwithUkrainethatwouldexcludethecountryfromafree
tradezonethatincludesformerSovietcountriesfrom1January.
Ukrainesaiditis"readytopaytheprice"tojoinanEUfreetradezonefromthatdate.
From:KL
Subject:LookatLukashenko[Ed:Lukashenk(a)SeemstoUnderstandPutinBetterThanTrumpDoes]
To:
ttp://belarusdigest.com/story/how-belarus-disappointed-russia-ukraine-and-syria-24066
HowBelarusDisappointedRussiaInUkraineAnd
Syria
SiarheiBohdan18December2015
NewUkrainianArmouredVehicleDesignedwithBelarusHelp.Image:UkraineMinistryofInternalAffairs
Minsk
consistentlyavoidssupportingMoscowinUkraineandSyria.Toputit
mildly.Afterall,on7December,UkrainianInternalMinisterAvakov
inauguratedthenewUkrainianarmouredvehicleVartadesignedin
cooperationwith"Belarusianengineers".
ItbecamejustonemoreofaseriesofexamplesofBelarus-Ukrainian
defencecooperation.Lateron,theBelarusianDefenceMinistry
deniedclaimsthatitsupportedRussia'spositioninthelatter'sdisputewithTurkey.
BelarusrisksestrangingitsRussianally,butnotbecauseitwantstoearnextramoneyin
UkraineorfromconservativeArabregimes.MinskstrivestoimproverelationswithRussia's
opponentsbecausetheKremlinhasshownitselfwillingtomakeradicalforeignpolicymoves.
KremlinTrash:BelarusianarmsforISIS
Lastweek,RussianpropagandaoutletEurasiaDailypublishedacommentarywiththe
eloquenttitleBelarusian'Neutrality'isHypocrisyonSpilledBlood.Itsummarisedaseriesof
articlesinwhichexpertsclosetotheKremlinaccusedBelarusofanti-Russianpoliciesin
UkraineandSyria.
WhenprominentRussianexpertscriticiseMinskinhalfadozenarticlesonEurasiaDailyit
meansthattheKremlinwantsitsBelarusianpartnertounderstandtheseriousnessofthe
accusations.TheleadingexpertonBelarusattheInstituteforStudiesofCISCountries,
AlexanderFadeev,pointedoutthatBelarussuppliedUkrainewithfuel,dual-usegoodsand
componentsforarmssystems.HeemphasisedthatMinskdiditnotonlyforeconomicbut
alsopoliticalreasons:inotherwords,toimproverelationswiththeWest.
LukashenkanotonlyearnsmoneyinUkrainebutalsosaystotheWest:Iamyours,don'tstagea
MaidaninBelarus
On11December,aRussianpoliticalanalystworkingattheprestigiousHigherSchoolof
EconomicscalledAndreiSuzdaltsevdevelopedthisideafurther.Accordingtohim,
LukashenkanotonlyearnsmoneyinUkrainebutalsosaystotheWest:Iamyours,don't
stageaMaidaninBelarus.
RussianpoliticalcommentatorEvgenySatanovskiearlieraccusedBelarusofworkingwith
TurkeyandQataragainstRussiaintheMiddleEast.NowhehastakenhiscriticismofMinskto
theextreme.Accordingtohim,whilepreviouslyRussia'sopponentsintheMiddleEast
QatarandUAEpurchasedarmsforISISinSerbiaandNorthKorea,nowtheydoitmostlyin
Minsk.Satanovskiunderlined,They[ISIS]aregoingtousetheseweapons.Whetheritwillbe
againstus[Russians],Syrians,Iraniansorcivilianswhotheymurderisasecondaryquestion.
CooperationwithUkraine:impossibletohide
RidiculousaccusationsofBelarussellingweaponstoISISwillnotfoolanybody.In,factitis
BelarusianpolicyinUkraineandnotSyriawhichenragesMoscow.AndevidenceofBelarus-
Ukrainiancooperationabounds.AyearagoitseemedthatBelarusmightmerelytake
advantageofthesituationtoearnsomemoneysupplyingUkrainewithwarmaterials.Now,
almosttwoyearsintotheDonbaswar,MinskcontinuestocooperatewithKyiv,provingthatthis
collaborationispartofBelarus'longer-termstrategyintheregion.
Kyiv-basedjournalistIhorTyshkevichhasrecentlypublishedinKhvyliaanewinvestigative
overviewofBelarus-Ukrainiancooperation.HebelievesthatthisyearBelarusianfirmscould
earnabout$90-$100mfrommilitary-relevantdeals(withoutfuel)inUkraine.
Somethingofthisbusinessisevident,liketheriseofBelarus'shareintheUkrainianaircraft
fuelmarketfrom0%beforethewarto45%,orstatisticaldataonbilateraltradewhichshow
transfersofnumerousgoodsforprobablemilitaryuse.
Indeed,whilein2014BelarussoldUkraine$5mworthof
Stugna-Panti-tankguidedmissile
aircraft,inthefirsthalfof2015thisfigureroseto$14.4m.In2015,KyivboughtfromBelarus
specialtrucksworth$1.7m,i.e.,therespectiveexportroseby210%comparedwith2014.
Manypossibleindicatorsofcooperationlackdirectevidence,yetlookconvincing.For
example,TyshkevichpointsoutthattheUkrainianarmyhasstartedtoreceivelargequantities
ofthenewanti-tankmissilesystemStugna.Ukraineproducesonlythemissileusedinthis
system,whiletherestisdeliveredbyMinsk-basedfirmPeleng.
WhyMinskrisksworkingwithKyiv
ThestatisticsshowthatthoughBelarushasearnedsomemoneyfromthesetransactions,this
aloneisnotenoughtobeworththeriskswhichtheseUkrainiandealsposetoBelarus-
Russianrelations.Minskisnotlookingformoney.
MinskstrivestomaintainandimproverelationswithopponentsofMoscowintheregionandbeyond
(firstofalltheEU)
TheRussianexpertsquotedabovegotitright:politicsdeterminesthebehaviourofBelarusian
government.Firstofall,Minskstrivestomaintainandimproverelationswithopponentsof
Moscowintheregionandbeyond(firstofalltheEU)becausethedevelopmentsinCrimea
andtheDonbashaveprofoundlyshockedit.Itisnotsurethatsomethingofthiskindcouldnot
happeninBelarusandislookingeverywhereforpartnerswhowouldhelppreventor,if
necessaryresist,suchaneventuality.
Atthesametime,BelarushasreachedthelimitsofitscooperationwithRussiaassetbythe
Kremlin.Inthefieldofmilitaryindustrialcooperation,Minskhassufferednumerous
disappointments.Forinstance,itsplanstoestablishjointlywithRussiaanassembly
productionofaircraftinBelarusintheearly2010sendedwithnothing.
Earlier,inthelate2000s,BelarusnegotiatedwiththeKremlinevenmorefar-reachingplans
forproducingtopdefenceproductsinBelarus.Amongthemwereshort-rangeballisticmissile
systems(Iskander),surface-to-airmissilesystems(Tor)andlaunchersformobile
intercontinentalballisticmissile(Topol).Tonoavail.
UkrainegivesBelarusmilitarytechnologies
MinskthenpubliclyturnedtoChinaforsomeoftheseopportunities,butalsotoUkraine,
especiallyafterCrimea.Interestingly,theBelarusiangeneralPiatroRahazheuskiwhohad
negotiatedwithMoscowpossibleBelarusianparticipationin
producingIskandersandTorslateronoptedtoworkwithUkrainians.
ThisformerDeputyDefenceMinisterofBelarusandlaterDeputyChairmanoftheState
MilitaryIndustrialCommitteeisnowthedirectoroftheBelarusianofficeoftheUkrainianMotor
SichCompany.MotorSichhasgivenBelarussomethingRussiadenied:theUkrainian
companyestablishedahelicoptersrepairfacilityinOrshaandplanstoextendit.
UkrainehelpsBelaruswithexpertiseandtechnology,notonlyconcerningaviationbutalsotanksand
missiles
TyshkevichassertsthatUkrainehelpsBelaruswithexpertiseandtechnology,notonly
concerningaviationbutalsotanksandmissiles.RussianscholarSuzdaltsevonEurasia
Dailyagrees:"LukashenkaistryingtogetfromUkrainethearmswhichRussiatakinginto
accountthenotverytrustingrelationsbetweenMinskandMoscowcannotgivehim."
TyshkevichandSuzdaltsevassumethatUkrainiansmighthaveparticipatedindesigningthe
BelarusianPalanezmultiplelaunchrocketsystem.OfficiallyaBelarus-Chineseproduct,
PalanezshootsfurtherthantheChineseWS-2andWS-3systemswhichpresumablyserved
asprototypesforPalanez.SinceitsfirstpublicdemonstrationinMay,themediahas
speculatedaboutUkrainian(andRussian)involvementindesigningthisweapon.
Allinall,Belarus'contactswiththeUkrainianandArabregimesopposingRussiacannotbe
dismissedastheopportunisticpursuitofeasymoney.Minskdislikesthepoliciesofthe
currentRussiangovernmentwhichthreatentoredrawinternationalborders.Moreover,ithas
realisedthattheKremlintakesitsalliancewithBelarusforgrantedanddoesnotdealwithitas
apartner.
SiarheiBohdanisaResearchDirectorattheOstrogorskiCentre.Heisanalumnusofthe
BelarusStateUniversityandEuropeanHumanitiesUniversityinLithuania.
Subject:[HuffPost]RussianAirstrikesCutOffSyrians'LifelineToCrucialAid
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/russian-airstrikes-humanitarian-crisis-syria_5672ed64e4b0648fe3027fdb
RussianAirstrikesCutOffSyrians'LifelineTo
CrucialAid
Everyweek,webringyouoneoverlookedaspectofstoriesthatmadenewsinrecentdays.Didyounoticethe
mediaforgotallaboutanotherstory'sbasicfacts?Tweet@TheWorldPostorletusknowonourFacebook
page.
TheSyrianandRussianairforceshavepoundedasmallstripofrebel-controlledterritorynearSyriasborderwith
Turkeyinrecentweeks,inwhatcouldbeoneofthemostdecisivebattlesinSyriasnearlyfive-yearwar.
Itcouldalso,however,sparkanewhumanitariancrisisinthecountry.TheAzazcorridor,apassagewaythatis5to
15kilometerswideandrunsfromtheTurkishbordertotheSyriancityofAleppo,providesacriticallifelineforaid
andsuppliesforoverhalfamillionSyrians.Inrecentweeks,severalaidgroupshavebeenforcedtosuspendorscale
backoperationsintheareaafterairstrikeshitvehicleconvoysandcivilianinfrastructure.
ThisisthemainroutethroughwhichaidisbroughtintonorthernSyria,saidChristyDelafield,senior
communicationsofficerforhumanitarianaidgroupMercyCorps,whichhadtosuspendcross-borderaidmultiple
timesinrecentweeks.
ASSOCIATEDPRESS
MercyCorps,whichisoneofthemainprovidersoffoodaidinSyria,hasstockpilesofsuppliesinsidethecountry,
butevendistributingthemhasbecomemoredifficultanddangerous.Thesurgeinairstrikesleavespeoplecutoff,
shesaid.
Some600,000people--bothresidentsanddisplacedSyrians--liveintheAzazdistrictandeastAleppo,according
toDoctorsWithoutBorders,whichhadtobrieflysuspenddistributionofreliefintheareaearlierthismonth.
Forpeopleindamagedhomesorwholiveindisplacedshelteringintentedcampswithfewpossessions,thearrival
ofwintermakesthesituationworse,CarlosFrancisco,theheadofmissionforDoctorsWithoutBordersinSyria,
toldTheWorldPost.Itsalsohardforthemtogetmedicalcare,eveninemergencies,hesaid.Mostofthemedical
facilitiesintheareahavebeentargetedatonepointoranotherduringtheSyrianwar.
BARAA
AL-HALABI/AFP/GettyImagesThousandshavegatheredincampsneartheTurkishborder,includingatBabal-
Salam.
RussiahasbeenbombingopponentsofSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assadindifferentpartsofthecountrysincelate
September.WhiletheKremlininsistsitisonlytargetingextremistgroups,mostRussianairstrikeshavehitareas
controlledbyarangeofoppositiongroups,fromalQaedasSyrianaffiliatetoWestern-backedfighters.
MoscowsinterventionintheSyrianconflicthasheightenedtensionsbetweenRussia,along-standingAssadally,and
countriesthatbacktheSyrianopposition,mostnotablyTurkey.OnNov.24,TurkeyshotdownaRussianjetthat
AnkarasaidhadstrayedovertheSyrianborderintoTurkishterritory.RussianPresidentVladimirPutinvowed
payback.
Inthedaysandweeksthatfollowed,SyrianandRussianairstrikessharplyincreasedinnorthernSyria,accordingto
theUnitedNations'humanitarianagencyOCHA.Theyhitmarketsandbakeries,hospitalsandschools.Dozensof
civiliancasualtieswerereported.
TheairstrikesnudgedclosertoTurkeysborder,strikingrepeatedlyattrucksgatheredintransportationdepotsnear
twobordercrossings--Babal-HawainnorthIdlibandBabal-SalamonthenorthernedgeoftheAzazcorridor.
ResidentsidentifiedsomeofthewarplanesasRussian.
RushavasaldrsnnalevlerierisindebraktyardmTIR'larnaSivilSavunmaekiplerimizmdahale
ediyor.
HH(@ihhinsaniyardim)11:08AM-25Nov2015
FootagefromtheTurkishaidgroupHumanitarianReliefFoundationshowedtrucksburningneartheborder
afterareportedairstrikeinlateNovember.
Thetargetingofroadsandvehiclescausedalarmamonghumanitarianorganizationsthatdependontheroadfrom
TurkeytoAleppotobringfood,fuelandemergencyaidtoSyriancivilians.Aftertheairstrikes,severaltransportation
companiesthatbringaidandothergoodsintothecountrysuspendedsupplyroutes.Severalhumanitarian
organizationshavebeenforcedtohaltorreducetheiractivitiesinthearea,theU.N.agencysaid.
Itissimplynotsafeenoughforourstaff,ourpartnersorthepeopleinneedtohavetheactivitiesgoasnormalduring
thesecircumstances,whereweseearangeofcivilianstructuresandpropertiesbeinghit,saidBendikSrvig,
regionaladviserfortheNorwegianRefugeeCouncil,whichhastemporarilysuspendedactivitiesintheareaduetothe
bombing.TheAzazcorridorhasbeenalifelinetoAleppoandsurroundingareassincetheearlydaysoftheconflict.
TheareahasalsoprovidedsomerefugeforhundredsofthousandsofSyriansdisplacedbyconflictinotherpartsof
thecountry.
Theareahasbeenattackedbefore,butduetoitsproximitytotheTurkishborders,manyhaveconsideredit
relativelysafe,atleastincomparisontotheavailablealternativesacrosstheoppositionheldareas,Srvigsaid.
PAUL
GYPTEAU/AFP/GettyImagesRussia,along-timeAssadally,saysitisfightingextremistgroups,butanalystsand
U.S.officialssaytheyhavetargetedWestern-backedoppositionfighters.
AnalystssaytheSyrianregimeanditsRussianallyhopetocutoffoppositionfightersfromTurkishsuppliesandtake
fullcontrolofthecityofAleppo--thelargestcityinSyriabeforethewar.
Meanwhile,therebels,whoincludeTurkmenrebelssupportedbyTurkeyandanumbrellacoalitioncalledJaishal-
Fatah,areunderattackonallothersides--theKurdishDemocraticUnionPartyinthewest,theself-described
IslamicStatetotheeast,andtheSyrianregimeandalliesinthesouth.
TheAzazcorridorhasbecometheepicenterofthewar,UniversityofLyonassociateprofessorFabriceBalanche
wroteinareportforTheWashingtonInstituteforNearEastPolicylastweek.
TheWashingtonInstituteforNearEastPolicy
Thebombsarecomingnearer,andmanySyrianshavenowherelefttoflee.Turkeyofficiallycloseditsborder
crossingswithSyriainMarch,andaccordingtoHumanRightsWatch,hasrecentlycrackeddownonSyrianstrying
toslipacrosstheborderafterpromisingEuropetostemtheflowofmigrantsandrefugeesintothecontinent.
Theresahugeincreaseinciviliancasualties,anewwaveofdisplacement,andwithEuropeanpressureonTurkeyto
keeptheirbordersecure,alotofpeoplefeeltrappedinbetween,Delafieldsaid.
ReadmoreontheconflictinSyria:
-ADefectorSmuggledEvidenceOfMassAtrocitiesOutOfSyria.HereAreTheVictimsStories
-MostDisplacedSyriansAren'tRefugees.They'reTrappedInsideTheCountry
-HauntedByWar,ManySyrianKidsHaveNoPsychologicalSupport.ThisGroupWantsToChangeThat
-Heart-WrenchingVideoShowsChildrenWoundedBySyrianAirstrikes
Subject:Re:[JohnDDailyDigest12-18]Fwd:Thefermentgrows:"AngryRussianBUSINESSMENturnonKremlin,"......[RUS
C]TrumpDefendsPutinKillingJournalists.......[GJY]UNBELIEVABLE:RussiaCallingShotsonSyriaatUN........[ED:PB
respondstoSYUNMeetingandmore]
To:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
Walter,it'sjusthardtobelieveUkraineisnotinplayinNewYorkthequestionisnot"if"but"how"IfPutinsavesAssad
(whichlooksprettygoodnow),wemaywellfindISIS'snextmovetobeinYemenandSaudiRightnowtheSaudi'saregiving
himabiggerheadachethanUA.HecanalwaysreturnlatertoUA(andmostcertainlywill).Hedoesn'thavetotrytotake
Saudi,justscaretheprincesenoughtoletthepriceofoilfloatbackupenoughtokeephiminbusiness.And,therearelotsof
folksonthissideofthepondwhowouldliketoseetheSaudi'sraisepricesaswell.SowecouldseeacoalitionofUS,RUand
EU(German)businessinterestspushingforashifttowards"makenicetoPutie".Evenifsanctionsremain,ariseinoilprices
wouldgivePutinalotofbreathingroom.Inexchange,hepullsbackhissupportofISISexpansion(thedotsaremurky,but
emerging)and,withoutlosinginSyria,hecanputhisfocusbackonUA.Inthemeantime,hecontinuesfundingandorchestrating
chaosinUARadawithlotsofcashfundingattackdogsonRussianowned/controlledmedia,forgingbizarrepoliticalalliancesto
furtherdiscordandmalignantdezinformtokeepthecatsfighting.
Subject:ChessmasterGarryKasparovequatesPutinwithDonCorleone
ChessmasterGarryKasparovequatesPutinwithDonCorleone
ByJillDoughertyDecember18at12:46PM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/chess-master-garry-kasparov-equates-putin-with-don-corleone/2015/12/18/79064a58-
8c7e-11e5-baf4-bdf37355da0c_story.html
JillDoughertywasCNNsMoscowbureauchieffrom1997to2005.ShealsoservedasCNNsWhiteHousecorrespondent,
foreignaffairscorrespondentandmanagingeditorforAsia/Pacific.
WhenGarryKasparovwasthechesschampionoftheworld,hehadanickname:thebeastfromBaku,areferencebothtohis
birthplaceintheformerSovietrepublicofAzerbaijanandtohistake-no-prisonersstyleofplaying.
Aggressiveandarrogant,hewasthemasterofattack.In2005,afteratwo-decadecareer,heretiredfromthegametojoin
Russiaspro-democracymovementand,asheexplainsinhisbook,WinterIsComing,topushbackagainsttherisingtideof
repressionscomingfromtheKremlin.
InthisscreedagainstVladimirPutin,Kasparovgoesontheoffensiveoncemore.PutinsRussiaisclearlythebiggestandmost
dangerousthreatfacingtheworldtoday,hewrites.PutinisalostcauseandRussiawillalsobealostcauseuntilheis
gone.Now,withPutinlaunchinganaircampaigninSyria,KasparovrecentlytoldCNN.comthatPutinneedsasteadydietof
escalatingconflict,andheblastedtheWestforplayingthedictatorspurelytacticalgame,andlosing.
Inhisnewbook,Kasparovgoesshockinglyfurther.InhisManicheanuniverse,boththeRussianpresidentandtheIslamicState
terroristorganizationarethreatstothemodernworldyetPutin,heargues,isworsehehasnukestobackhimup.
"WinterIsComing:WhyVladimirPutinandtheEnemiesoftheFreeWorldMustBeStopped"byGarryKasparov(PublicAffairs)
[GarryKasparovonhisnextbookandwhyPutinislikeTywinLannister]
BothPutinandtheIslamicStatearewagingawaronmodernity,KasparovwroteintheWallStreetJournalinJanuary.Putin
longsfortheunlimitedpoweroftheczarstheIslamicStateslashesitswaytowardamedievalcaliphate.BothrejectWestern
values,heargues,andthisisthecommonthreadconnectingthePutinattackonUkraineandthemurderousIslam-derivied
ideologythatfuelsjihadistslikethePariskillers.
WhilethereaderdigeststhisversionofPutintheInternationalTerrorist,Kasparovalsoemploysthewell-worntropeofPutinas
mafiadon.ThebestwaytounderstandtheRussianpresident,hesays,istoreadMarioPuzosGodfathertrilogy,withPutinas
DonVitoCorleone.Insteadofthemafiadonsgamblingandbootlegging,Russiasdictatorialpetro-staterunsonoil,moneyand
power.
Thatcomparisonhasbeenmademanytimesbefore,andotherbooksonPutinhaveanalyzedindetailhissystemofcentralized
control,calledthepowervertical,alongwiththeincestuousrelationshipsbetweengovernmentofficialsandstate-owned
corporations.
KasparovtracesthehighpointsofPutins15years(sofar)inpower,buthisbookofferslittlethatwouldbefreshtomanyreaders.
Insomerespects,thathardlymatters.Kasparovisonadifferentmission:toassessblameandtheresplentytogoaround,
beginningwithwhathecallsthecrimesandmisdemeanorsofPutinspredecessors,SovietPresidentMikhailGorbachevand
Russiasfirstpresident,BorisYeltsin.
CouldRussiasdemocracyactivists,includingKasparov,haveavertedthedownwardspiralthatledtoPutin?No,Kasparovsays
theyneverhadachance.Slandered,physicallyassaulted,harassedbypoliceand,inthecaseofBorisNemtsov,murdered,
Russiasreformers,Kasparovinsists,wereblockedateveryturnfrombuildingamovementthatcouldchallengetheKremlin.
Inhisblack-and-whitetelling,theresnoroomfordeepanalysisofthecriticalquestionofwhyRussiasliberalsfailedtocoalesce.
Insteadtheresjustafleetingreferencetotheirinternalfeuding,whichhedescribesastheYeltsin-eracivilwarmentality.
KasparovreserveshisgreatestirefortheWest,theUnitedStatesand,mostofall,PresidentObamaforwhatheconsiderscraven
panderingtoPutin.Despitetheattemptstorebrandthemethodasengagement,hesneers,thesmellofappeasementis
impossibletomask.
AsRussianwarplanescarryoutbombingmissionsinSyria,theWhiteHousestandsidlyby,KasparovtoldNewsweekinOctober:
TheUnitedStateshasnointerestinstandinguptoVladimirPutinslatestgambitatleastnotinanywaythatwoulddeterhim.
U.S.presidentsinparticular,hesaysinhisbook,alwaysplacedfartoomuchfaithinindividualsinRussia,insteadofsupporting
thestructuralandinstitutionalreformsthatcouldhaveguaranteedthesurvivalofdemocracy.HeevencriticizesColdWarriors
suchasDickCheney,DonaldRumsfeldandCondoleezzaRiceforcavingintotheRussianruler.
KasparovyearnsfortheveritiesoftheColdWar,thetouchstoneofwhatheconsiderstherightwaytodealwithadictatorship:
notjustdefendingvaluesbutprojectingthemaggressively.
Instead,hesays,theWesthascoddledRussia,strokingitsego,treatingitlikethesuperpowertheSovietUnionusedtobe,rather
thanpromotingWesternvaluesanddemandingthatMoscowadheretostandardsofhumanrights.Asaresult,hebelieves,Russia
hasslippedbackintototalitarianism.
Dictatorsonlystopwhentheyarestopped,andappeasingPutinwithUkrainewillonlystokehisappetiteformoreconquests,he
warns.Ukraineisjustonebattlethefreeworldwouldliketoignoreinalargerwaritrefusestoacknowledgeevenexists.
InKasparovsworld,theWestassumesmythic,omnipotentproportions.IgnoringtherolesthatthecrumblingSovieteconomyand
worldoilpricesplayedinthedemiseoftheU.S.S.R.,Kasparovclaimsthatitwasthefreeworldthathadbroughtdownthe
SovietUnion,andthatitwastheWestsindifferenceandfecklessnessthatallowedPutintoputanendtothedemocratic
experimentinRussia.
ThisisanItoldyousobookofthehighestorder.Putinhasthehabitofmakingmeintoanaccurateprophet,Kasparovwrites,
butaverydisappointedRussian.
Thereareplentyofshouldve,wouldve,couldvesinWinterIsComing.Backinthe90s,Kasparovclaims,ifGeorgeW.
Bushsfreedompromotionagendahadexisted,itwouldhavehadatremendouspositiveeffect...whenthebadguyswere
alreadyindisarray.
ButcouldWashingtonhavestoppedthebadguys?Duringtheearly90stheUnitedStateswasmoreconcernedaboutRussia
emergingfromtheashesoftheSovietUnionwithoutacivilwaroranuclearcatastrophethanitwasinscoldingYeltsinforhisanti-
democraticactions,suchascrushingarevoltbyorderingtankstoopenfireontheRussianWhiteHouse.
Real-worlddecisionsbasedonhardchoiceshavenoplaceinKasparovsworld.TheWest,itseems,justhastogrowlatPutinand
hewillstopinhistracks.IntheuniversewhereMcCainispresident,PutindoesnotinvadeUkraine,hesays,withastraightface.
Kasparov,inhisowneyes,isachampionprognosticatoraboutwhatPutinwilltrynextandwhattheWestfearstodotostop
him.
AsinUkraine,hepredictsinhisNewsweekcommentary,PutinwillstayinSyriauntilitnolongersuitshim.Hehasnolong-term
strategicgoalsbeyondcreatingchaosandweakeningthealliancesofthefreeworldwhereverpossible.
Thismaybetrue,butKasparov,throughoutthisbook,seemsmoreexasperatedbytheWestsunwillingnesstorespondthanby
Putinsaggressiveness.
EveryoneistellingmehowrightIwas.But,hecomplains,fewofhisrecommendationshavebeenenacted.SomehowI
managedtounderestimatethecowardiceoftheWesternworldonceagain.
Whatarethoserecommendations?Forgetengagement,Kasparovsays,whetherwithPutinortheIslamicState.Instead,his
prescriptionisback-to-the-future:No,todefeatthemwillrequiretheunityandtheresolveandtheprinciplesthatwontheCold
War.
Kasparovproposesanewalliancefortheworld,withaglobalMagnaCarta,adeclarationoffundamentalrightsrecognizedby
allmembers,whichupholdsandenforcestheUniversalDeclarationofHumanRights.
ButKasparovalsowantsregimechangeinRussia.Stopcoddlingrogueregimesandsponsorsofterror,hesays.Putinsnature
cannotbechanged,andPutincannotbeappeased.Hemustbecontainedandoverthrown.
HeurgesEuropesleaderstostanduptotheKremlinbutalsopredictsthattheWestwillcaveagain.Itsclearatthemoment
thatthedemocraciesofthetwenty-firstcenturyarenotreadyforthisfight,Kasparovsays.Itisstillanopenquestionwhetheror
nottheycanandwillmakethemselvesready.
Fullofgeneralities,sound-bitecallstoactionandcomplaintsabouttheWestsinaction,WinterIsComing,writtenwithMig
Greengard,readsmorelikealongblogpostthanabook.
Missingarethoughtfulexaminationsofnumerousissues,forexample,recognitionofwhattheRussianpeoplethemselvesmightdo
topromotechange.KasparovclaimsthattheonlywayPutinsrulewillendisiftheRussianpeopleandPutinselitesunderstand
theyhavenofutureaslongasheisthere.ButheseemstobelievethatitstheWestsresponsibilitytoconvincethemofthatfact.
Putinisnomasterstrategist,Kasparovscoffs,callinghimanaggressivepokerplayerfacingweakoppositionfromaWestern
worldthathasbecomesoriskaversethatitwouldratherfoldthancallanybluff,nomatterhowgooditscardsare.
TheRussianpeople,however,areinthisgame,too.Somearefoldingtheircardsandfleeingthecountry.Otherskeepplaying,
evenifthedeckisstackedagainstthem.Theoverwhelmingmajority,ifyoubelieveRussianopinionpolls,arestillstickingwiththe
manwhodealsthecards.
Chess,however,isamorecomplexgameofstrategy.Asagrandmaster,Kasparovplayedtowin.Asapro-democracyactivistin
Russia,hescaughtinalosingstreak.HenowlivesinNewYork,afactthatrankles.
IoftensaidthatPutinwasaRussianproblemforRussiatosolve,hewrites,butthathewouldsoonbearegionalproblemand
thenaglobalproblemifhisambitionswereignored,adding:ItiscoldcomforttobetoldYouwereright!
Subject:"IthinkPutinisplayingwith[America]likeaStradivarius-JebBush
JebBush:PutinPlayingAmericaTheWayThatTrumpPlaysThePress
Thisisallagamefortheseguys,BushsaidoftheRussianpresidentsendorsementofhisRepublicanrival.
Dec.18,2015,at12:45p.m.
ChristopherMassie
BuzzFeedNewsReporter
JebBushsaidonThursdaythatRussianPresidentVladimirPutinsendorsementofhisopponentDonaldTrumpshowedthatPutin
wasplayingAmericathewaythatTrumpplaysthepress.
TheformerFloridaGov.madethecommentonMichaelMedvedsradioshow,afterthehostaskedhimabouttheRussianleaders
endorsementofBushsGOPrival.
IthinkPutinisplayingwithuslikeaStradivarius,Bushsaid,startingtoapplythesameanalogytoPutinthatheappliedto
Trumpearlierthismonth.Hesplayingus,America,thewaythatTrumpplaysthepress.Thisisallagamefortheseguys.Butwe
haveastakeintheMiddleEast.Wecantpullback.WecantbanallMuslimscomingintoourcountryandexpecttocreatea
coalitionwhichwouldbeessentialforthelong-termstabilityofSyriaandIraq.
BushalsocriticizedwhathecalledTrumpsapparentaffinityforPutin.
Andhisproposalsarejustcrazy,BushsaidofTrump.Imean,tosaythatyougetyourmilitaryadvicefromtheshows.To
suggestthatHillaryClintonwoulddoagoodjobnegotiatingwithIran,betterthananybodyelse.Thesearethethingsthathes
said.HehasastrongfeelingofapparentlyaffinitytowardsVladimirPutin,oneofthegreatdespotsofourtime.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/christophermassie/jeb-bush-putin-playing-america-the-way-that-trump-plays-the#.naWWGxlaA
From: DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Senttime: 12/18/201502:42:41PM
To: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:jesuis......
Yes,willreadthisweekend.
From:Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Date:Friday,December18,20155:41PM
To:DavidKramer<david.j.kramer@asu.edu>
Subject:Re:jesuis......
http://www.baks.bund.de/sites/baks010/files/working_paper_12_2015.pdf
SentfrommyiPad
OnDec18,2015,at5:26PM,DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>wrote:
From:AndrewWood<andrewood40@gmail.com>
Date:Friday,December18,20156:03AM
To:JamesNixey<jnixey@chathamhouse.org>,LiliaShevtsova<liliashevtsova@gmail.com>,DavidKramer
<david.j.kramer@asu.edu>
Subject:Fwd:jesuis......
Perfect.AlsojesuisBlatter,Trumpetc.
Andrew
SentfrommyiPad
From:KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>
Date:18December2015at10:18:46GMT
To:Phil<phil_hanson@btinternet.com>,StephenFortescue<s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au>,teagueeliza
<teagueeliza@aol.com>,KlausSegbersFU<segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de>,BoboLo
<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>,CarolinaVendilPallin<carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se>,Roderic&Mandy
Lyne<rodericlyne@hotmail.com>,RodricBraithwaite<rqbraithwaite@mac.com>,JulianCooper
<j.m.cooper@bham.ac.uk>,SilvanaMalle<silvana.malle@univr.it>,RichardConnolly
<r.connolly@bham.ac.uk>,RobertHorvath<rghorvath@yahoo.com>,JohnBesemeres
<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>
Cc:FriedErc<ercfried@aol.com>,SergeyKun<ksy1956@gmail.com>
Subject:jesuis......
<CWXk8naWUAAkQEd.jpg>
From: DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Senttime: 12/18/201502:26:36PM
To: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: FW:jesuis......
From:AndrewWood<andrewood40@gmail.com>
Date:Friday,December18,20156:03AM
To:JamesNixey<jnixey@chathamhouse.org>,LiliaShevtsova<liliashevtsova@gmail.com>,DavidKramer
<david.j.kramer@asu.edu>
Subject:Fwd:jesuis......
Perfect.AlsojesuisBlatter,Trumpetc.
Andrew
SentfrommyiPad
From:KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>
Date:18December2015at10:18:46GMT
To:Phil<phil_hanson@btinternet.com>,StephenFortescue<s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au>,teagueeliza
<teagueeliza@aol.com>,KlausSegbersFU<segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de>,BoboLo<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>,
CarolinaVendilPallin<carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se>,Roderic&MandyLyne<rodericlyne@hotmail.com>,Rodric
Braithwaite<rqbraithwaite@mac.com>,JulianCooper<j.m.cooper@bham.ac.uk>,SilvanaMalle
<silvana.malle@univr.it>,RichardConnolly<r.connolly@bham.ac.uk>,RobertHorvath<rghorvath@yahoo.com>,
JohnBesemeres<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>
Cc:FriedErc<ercfried@aol.com>,SergeyKun<ksy1956@gmail.com>
Subject:jesuis......
Senttime: 12/18/201509:10:06AM
Subject: FW:Thefermentgrows:"AngryRussianBUSINESSMENturnonKremlin,"themoscowetimes.ccom,12/18VIDEO
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Friday,December18,20159:10AM
Subject:Thefermentgrows:"AngryRussianBUSINESSMENturnonKremlin,"themoscowetimes.ccom,12/18VIDEO
WhenRussianentrepreneurDmitryPOTAPENKOexplodedinrageattheMoscowEconomicForum
hecouldnothaveknownthathewouldbecomeanInternetsensation.Yetheisnotsurprised.Idid
whateveryonedreamsofdoingthemselves,hesaid.ThebusinessmenPotapenko,hisneighborat
theforumroundtable,farmbossPavelGrudinin,andCrimeanzoodirectorOlegZubkovtogether
gatheredmorethan2million[!]hitsonYouTubewithvideosofspeecheslambastingtheauthorities.
And:AscandalattheFIRSTCHANNELPeoplesartistV.NAZAROVquitstheFirstChannelsCouncil
andinanopenlettertotheCouncilschairmanTabakovblaststhecontentofwhatthechannel
broadcasts:http://nev25.blogspot.com/2015/12/blogpost_760.html?spref=fb
Nazarov:Iunderstandthatunderconditionswhenthereisnocivilsociety[inRussia]theexistenceof
RTissenselessandevenharmfulsinceitisascreencoveringupthefactthatthereisnodemocracyin
RussiaInthecountrytherearemorehomelesschildrenthanduringthewaraccordingtosome
statistics.ORTkeepssilent.Thestandardoflivingiscatastrophicallydeclining;teachers,doctors,
workersgooutonthestreetsinprotest.ORTkeepssilence
And:TRUMPdefendsPutinkillingjournalists:U.S.killspeople,too,thedailybveast.com,12/18
And:NancyYouseff,PENTAGONofficers:WequitifTrumpwins,thedailybeast.com,12/18
And:ThefermentspreadstoregionalassembliesInKRASNOYARSKmembersoftheopposition
partiesKPRF,LDPRandAJustRussiacomeoutinoppositionagainsttheexistingauthorities:
http://krasw.mk.ru/print/article/1354630/
And:InaninterviewwithNovayaGazetaformerdeputyministerofenergyVladimirMILOVtermsthe
Russianeconomyagigantichippopotamuswithoutwings:
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/economy/71220.html?print=1
And:EUtoprolongSANCTIONSagainstRussia,themoscowtimes.com,12/18
And:StrikingtruckersassailPutinsdismissaloftheiraction(VIDEOofthetruckersspeaking):
http://tvrain.ru/new2sw/nalog400319/
Senttime: 12/17/201504:08:56PM
FW:[BlindLeadingBlind???OrCorruptLeadingCorrupt????]Fwd:HILL/JUSTIN:JUSTIN:Trumpcalls"highlyrespected"Putin'sendorsement
Subject:
"agreathonor".......[AMUSTSEE,MUSTTRANSLATE,MUSTDISSEMINATEFwd:HromadskeTV:Firtash,MohylevychandT...
Sent:Thursday,December17,20153:26PM
Subject:Fwd:[BlindLeadingBlind???OrCorruptLeadingCorrupt????]Fwd:HILL/JUSTIN:JUSTIN:Trumpcalls"highlyrespected"
Putin'sendorsement"agreathonor".......[AMUSTSEE,MUSTTRANSLATE,MUSTDISSEMINATEFwd:HromadskeTV:Firtash,
MohylevychandT...
Date:Thu,Dec17,2015at6:23PM
Subject:[BlindLeadingBlind???OrCorruptLeadingCorrupt????]Fwd:HILL/JUSTIN:JUSTIN:Trumpcalls"highly
respected"Putin'sendorsement"agreathonor".......[AMUSTSEE,MUSTTRANSLATE,MUSTDISSEMINATEFwd:
HromadskeTV:Firtash,MohylevychandTymoshenkoallyinSwedishgasdealMisenEnergy/Karpatygaz[Through
Mohylevych...roadsleadtoPutin&Co.]........PutinsaysFIFA'sSeppBlatterdeservesNobelprize
From:Moyehoist@aol.com<moyehoist@aol.com>
Subject:TweetbyTheHillonTwitter[Trumpcalls"highlyrespected"Putin'sendorsement"agreathonor"]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,RomaHadzewycz<Staff@ukrweekly.com>,romashka1@aol.com
TheHill(@thehill)
12/17/15,5:43PM
JUSTIN:Trumpcalls"highlyrespected"Putin'sendorsement"agreathonor"hill.cm/Qg1Bkavpic.twitter.com/9TtQ0S1S9A
DownloadtheTwitterapp
Date:2015-12-1714:58GMT-05:00
Subject:Firtash,MohylevychandTymoshenkoallyinSwedishgasdealMisenEnergy/KarpatygazsaysHromadskeTV[[Through
Mohylevych...roadsleadtoPutin&Co.]
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky
<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,walter.derzko@utoronto.ca
Pryvit!
Odnochasnostrashneiohydne!
http://www.pravda.com.ua/
.:'
,3,,
.
http://www.pravda.com.ua/photo-video/2015/12/17/7092837/
Subject:VladimirPutinsaysFIFA'sSeppBlatteris'arespectedperson'anddeservesNobelprize|DailyMailOnline
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-3364261/Vladimir-Putin-says-FIFA-s-Sepp-Blatter-respected-
person-deserves-Nobel-prize.html
VladimirPutinsaysFIFA'sSeppBlatteris'a
respectedperson'anddeservesNobelprize
RussianpresidentVladimirPutinsaidonThursdaythatsuspendedFIFAPresidentSeppBlatterwas'avery
respectedperson'.
Headdedthatitwasuptoinvestigatorstoestablishwhetherthereactuallywerecasesofcorruptionintheworld
footballbody.
Putinsaid:'WhethertherearesignsofcorruptioninFIFA,theinvestigationmustshow.
VladimirPutinsaidonThursdaythatsuspendedFIFAPresidentSeppBlatterwas'averyrespected
person'
Putinalsosaidof79-year-oldBlatter:'Hehasdonealotforthedevelopmentofworldsoccer'
'AsforJosephBlatter,heisaveryrespectedperson,hehasdonealotforthedevelopmentofworldsoccer...That's
theonetobeawardedNobelPeacePrize,'Putinadded.
Speakingathisannualnewsconference,PutinalsosaidRussiahadwonitsrighttohosttheWorldCupfairly.
Hethensuggestedthatitwasopenforjointworkontacklingdopingfollowingaccusationsofwidespreaddoping
amongRussianathletes.

Senttime: 01/18/201610:10:03AM
FW:[ATALEOFTWORUSSIAS][COMPARE....]Putin'sSelfDestructingEconomyDarkJokestoLightenGloomAilingRUEconomy'Winter
Subject:
isComing'/WhyVladHastobeStoppedTheFlawsofthePutinverstehersRussianHermeneutics.....[.....ANDCONTRAST]RU...
Sent:Sunday,January17,20169:28PM
Subject:Fwd:[ATALEOFTWORUSSIAS][COMPARE....]Putin'sSelfDestructingEconomyDarkJokestoLightenGloomAilingRU
Economy'WinterisComing'/WhyVladHastobeStoppedTheFlawsofthePutinverstehersRussianHermeneutics.....[.....AND
CONTRAST]RU...
Date:Mon,Jan18,2016at12:27AM
Subject:[ATALEOFTWORUSSIAS][COMPARE....]Putin'sSelfDestructingEconomyDarkJokestoLightenGloomAiling
RUEconomy'WinterisComing'/WhyVladHastobeStoppedTheFlawsofthePutinverstehersRussianHermeneutics.....
[.....ANDCONTRAST]RUEconomyIsOK/ItistheWestthatisSinkingPutinjustwantshisownempire,liketheUShas.....
COMPARE.....
Date:Sun,Jan17,2016at10:33PM
Subject:Putinsself-destructingeconomybyVladislavInozemtsev
Putinsself-destructingeconomy
ByVladislavInozemtsevJanuary17at7:49PM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/russias-economy-of-disillusionment/2016/01/17/0803598e-bb97-11e5-
829c-26ffb874a18d_story.html
VladislavInozemtsevisavisitingfellowattheCenterforStrategicandInternationalStudiesinWashingtonanddirector
oftheCenterforPost-IndustrialStudiesinMoscow.
AlittlemorethanayearafterBlackTuesday,whentherublelostaquarterofitsvalueinaday,thestateoftheRussianeconomy
isstilluncertain.Duringthepast12months,grossdomesticproductdeclined3.9percent,lessthanmanyanalystsanticipateda
yearago,andthegovernmentmanagedtogetinflationbelow13percent.Butearlyofficialforecastspromisingareturntogrowth
bythethirdquarterof2015wentunrealized,andsubsequentprojectionsofgrowthresuminglaterthisyearalsolookunrealistic.
BoththeinternationalfinancialinstitutionsandRussiaseconomicministrynowagreethattheeconomywillnotgrowin
2016theInternationalMonetaryFundandtheWorldBankprojecteda0.6percentdeclineinDecember,whilelastweekRussian
authoritiessaidtheyexpecteda0.8percentcontraction.Nonetheless,thecurrentconsensusisthattheeconomywillresume
expandingin2017.Ifthatindeedhappens,onemaysaythatthewholethingwasanotherordinaryeconomicdownturncausedby
fallingoilpricesandWesternsanctions.
Butifgrowthdoesntreturn,thenwhat?
IwouldarguethatRussiaseconomyisdoingmuchworsethanitwasevenin2009.Realdisposableincomesaredown
significantly,andnominalwagesrecalculatedindollarsatcurrentexchangeratesarebelowwheretheywerein2005.Retail
saleshavedippedtwiceasdeeplyastheydidin2009.Federalbudgetreceipts,alsoindollars,areat2006levels.Theaverage
priceforanewapartmentinMoscowhasfallen16percentbelow2014levelsinrubles,andbymorethanbyhalfindollars.Office
rentsinMoscowandSt.Petersburghavebeenpushedbackto2002rates.TheRussianeconomysuffersfromboththeeffectsof
diminishingoilrevenueandgrowingbureaucraticpressure,nottomentionthecountrysparanoidforeignpolicy.
AssessingtheRussianeconomysincetheearly2000s,onecanseetwodistinctperiods.Thefirstrunsfrom2000to2007,when
theeconomygrewbyabout7percentayear,theRTSstockmarketshotupandaverageincomesmorethantripled.Taxeswere
loweredandinternationalcooperationincreased.Russiarose.
Butthencamethesecondperiod,whichnowcanbecalledastandstill.Between2008and2015,averageannualgrowthhasbeen
closetozerocapitalflighthasacceleratedforeigninvestorshavebeensidelinedthebusinessclimatehasdeterioratedanddozens
oftaxeshavebeennewlyintroducedorincreased.MilitaryexpendituresdoubledasPresidentVladimirPutinlaunchedmilitary
operationsinGeorgia,UkraineandSyria,andheappearstohavecompletelyshiftedhisinterestfromeconomicmatterstothe
geopoliticalsphere.
Thissecondperiodisusuallydepictedastwocrisesandonerecovery,butitismoreaccuratetotreatitasonelongperiodwithout
growth.AsPrimeMinisterDmitryMedvedevhasadmitted,Russiahadnottrulyexitedthepreviouscrisisbeforeitfounditselfin
themidstofanewone.Viewedinthisway,theriseandstandstillperiodsappearcomplementary,witheachrunningeightornine
years.AndwiththeRussianeconomynowtotallysubjugatedtopolitics,andthelatterbecomingmoreilliberal,thereislittlehope
forrecovery,evenifsanctionsareliftedandoilpricesreturntomorenormallevels.
Russiahasweatheredcrisesbefore,butneitherin1998norin2008didsomanyforeigncompaniesabandontheirinvestments.
Withitscounter-sanctionsagainsttheEuropeanUnion,tensionwithTurkeyandproclamationsthatinternationaltreatiesare
overriddenbyever-changingRussianlaw,thegovernmenthasdiscourageddomesticandinternationalinvestorsfromexpanding.In
thepastyear,morethan20Westerncorporations,includingOpel,AdobeSystemsandStockmann,haveterminatedtheirRussian
businessesaround30productionfacilitiesownedbyforeignershavebeenclosed.NetemigrationfromRussiarosefrom35,000
peopleayearfrom2008to2010tomorethan400,000,bypreliminaryestimates,in2015.Idonotseeanysignsthatallthese
trendsmightchange.
IfImright,andiftheRussianeconomycontractsin2016asitdidin2015,itmaywellbethatwehavewitnessednotanother
crisisbutthestartofaprolongeddownturnsomethingakintowhattookplaceinVenezuelafromthesecondhalfofthe
2000s.Ifso,thestandstillphasewillmovenotintoarevivalbutafreefallthatmaylastyearswellintoPutinsfourthterm(or
fifth,dependingonhowyoucount)beginningin2018.
Themainreasonforthisisthatinthe1990sandearly2000s,Russiahoweverchaoticitmighthaveseemedwasacountry
ofhope,andinvestorswereattractedtodynamicandimprovingdomesticconditions.Thatchangedafter2012.Nowitisa
territoryofdisillusionment.
As2016unfolds,IwouldadviseallthosetrackingRussiaseconomicperformancetotreadcarefully.Ifgrowthdoesnotresume,it
couldmeanthecountryhasenteredatimeofeconomicself-destructionthatmightmarkthethirdphaseofPutinsreign.
From:MiraKyzyk<mirakyzyk@gmail.com>
Subject:DarkJokesLightenGloomOverRussia'sAilingEconomy
DarkJokesLightenGloomOverRussia'sAilingEconomy
http://www.rferl.mobi/a/russia-economy-dark-humor-jokes/27492968.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
Subject:Tennismatchfixing:Evidenceofsuspectedmatchfixingrevealed-BBCSport
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>
Russia'sMafiacancerofcorruptionspreadstotennis.
http://www.bbc.com/sport/tennis/35319202
Subject:WinterisComing:WhyVladimirPutinandtheEnemiesoftheFreeWorldMustbeStopped
GoodinterviewwithKasparov.
WinterisComing:WhyVladimirPutinandtheEnemiesoftheFreeWorldMustbeStopped
http://www.carnegiecouncil.org/studio/multimedia/20160113/index.html
Subject:TheFlawsofthePutinverstehersRussianHermeneutics|Intersection
TheFlawsofthePutinverstehersRussianHermeneutics|Intersection
http://intersectionproject.eu/article/russia-europe/flaws-putinverstehers-russian-hermeneutics
TheFlawsofthePutinverstehersRussian
Hermeneutics
HowtheescapistaxiomsofWesternapologiesofKremlinpoliciesdistortourunderstandingoftheoriginsandmotivesof
Russiascurrentdomesticandforeignbehavior
Author:
AndreasUmland
Duringthelastfewyears,inWesternpoliticaldiscourse,apeculiarguildofpublicinterpretersoftheKremlinsforeignescapadesand
emergingconservativeideologyhastakenshape.ThesecommentatorsoftenappearinAmericanandEuropeanmassmedia,andin
GermanyperhapsthemostimportantWesterncountryforRussiahavecometobeknownasPutin-understanders
orPutinversteher.TheseapologistsforRussianforeignanddomesticpolicyoftenaccusetheiropponentsoflackingempathyforthe
Russianpeople,theirtraditions,concernsandviews.Theirdemonstrativelyhermeneuticalspeculationsareoftenaccompaniedby
historiosophicreflectionsontheroleofRussiainEuropeandtheprofoundtraumasoftheRussiancollectivesoul.
However,fromtheperspectiveofcontemporaryRussianhistory,the PutinverstehershighrespectfortheKremlinsincreasingly
zealouspatriotismismisguided.Moscowscurrentpoliciesareonlypartlyaresultofage-oldtraditionsoftheRussiannationandofits
lessonsfromearlierclasheswiththeWest.InassessingwhatdrivesMoscowscurrentforeignanddomesticbehavior,onehasto
keepinmindthetragiccourseofrecentRussianhistoryanditsdireconsequencesforpost-(increasinglyneo-)SovietRussia.
AknowledgeableobserverofcontemporaryRussianhistoryshouldbeintriguedbythefactthatRussiascurrentpoliticalleadership
increasinglyostensiblypositionsitselfasaglobaldefenderoffamilyvalues,conservatismandreligiosity.Howcanitbethatacountry
whichactivelypersecutedandoftenphysicallydestroyedtherepresentativesandinstitutionsofitsownnationaltraditionsfor70years,
feelsvocationtodayforteachingothernationswithmuchlongerhistoricalcontinuityaboutconservativeways?Manyyearsofradical
anti-traditionalismofBolshevikrulehaveproducedapost-Sovietsocietywhichwillhavetosearchfor,study,andreviveitsown
historicaltraditionsforalongtimetocome.PutinsRussiaincreasinglyproudofitsSovietpastisoneofthelastnationsinthe
worldwitharighttocallonWesterncountriestorespecttheirnationaltraditionsandChristiancivilization.
Moreover,someofthemostinfluentialpeopleamongRussiascurrentadministrationsuchasPresidentVladimirPutin,ChiefofStaff
ofthePresidentialExecutiveOffice,SergeiIvanov,andExecutiveChairmanofRosneft,IgorSechin,aredescendantsofthestate
agencyoftheUSSRwhichputintopracticetheBolshevistoppressionofRussiantraditions,culture,religion,thoughtandsciencefor
decades.TheKGBwasnotasecretserviceinthetraditionalsensebutratherthecoreoftheSovietapparatusofrepression.It
persecutedanyfreethoughtintheSovietUnion,includingRussiannationalthinking,aswellasallchurchesoftheUSSR,including
RussianOrthodoxones.Thirtyyearsago,manyrepresentativesoftodayspowereliteinRussiawereprofessionallyengagedin
oppressingpreciselythoseRussiannationalvalues,traditions,andinstitutionsthattheydeclarethemselvestobevehementdefenders
oftoday.
TheleitmotifoftodaysKremlinadministrationisnottruepatriotism,buttacticalpragmatism,characterizedbyadegreeofcynical
expedience,barelycomprehensibletomanyWesternEuropeans.Tosustainitsregime,thisunprincipledapproachadoptsforits
purposesbothnationalisticideas,andinternationalistslogans.Withoutasecondthought,Putinsregimeproclaimsfundamental
religious,orprofoundlyEnlightenment-related,motives.Itoftenresortstouncompromisingmoralisminitsarguments,butdoesnot
hesitatetoopenlydemonstratecold-bloodedamoralityinitsactions.Dependingonthesituation,itreferseithertouniversalhuman
values,orparticularlyRussiannationalinterests.Attimesitadvocatesobjectivehistoricaltruths,andonotheroccasions,defendsthe
righttoselectiveinterpretationsofSovietandtsaristhistory.ItseesnomajorcontradictionbetweenRussiasformerdesirefor
accessiontoNATO,anditsdemonizationoftheAlliancetoday.ContemporaryEuropeanUnionstandardscanservebothasarole
modelforRussia,andasamanifestationoftheabhorrentdegradationoftheWest.RussiapositionsitselfasaEuropeannationon
someoccasions,andasaEurasiancivilizationonothers.SometimesitpresentsitselfasaprofoundlyOrthodox,andothertimesasa
modernprogressivecountry.Thechoicedependsonwhichimageisbeneficialinagivensituation,whatismostappropriateatagiven
moment,orwhatbestsuitstheexpectationsoftheaudience.
Whilesearchingformental-historicalreferencepointsinordertocomprehendthecurrentbehaviorofRussianauthorities,German
observersshouldreferlesstothoughtandliteratureoftsaristRussia,andthepre-revolutionarypast,thantotheEastGermansrecent
experienceswiththeStasi(i.e.theMinistryforStateSecurityoftheGermanDemocraticRepublic).Unperturbedpersonalismand
ethicalrelativismaremoreweightyfactorsoftheoperatingsystemofRussiandomesticandforeignpolicythanRussiantraditionalism
andnationalism.InsteadofdelvingintotheinaccessiblepsycheofVladimirPutinandexploringhischildhoodwhichis
litteredwithlegendsfortheirexplanationsofRussianforeignpolicy,post-Sovietologistsshouldfirstpayattentiontothepolitico-
economicalrationalebehindtheKremlinsforeignpolicy,aswellastotheprivateinterestsandsociologicalcalculationsofutilitarian-
thinkingmulti-millionaires(andbillionaires)whoareinthedriversseat,inMoscowtoday.
Thisalsoconcernsthepost-SovietmilitaryactivitiesoftheKremlininMoldova,Georgia,UkraineorSyria.Thosewhoseethese
adventuresonlyasexpressionsofanachronisticneo-imperialism,orevenofsomeexistentialfearofWesternexpansion,
underestimatetheintellectualpotentialofPutinandcompany.TheKremlin,tobesure,justifiesitsquestforhegemonyoverthepost-
SovietspacebeforeRussianandinternationalcommunitieswithpatrioticformulassuchasRussiasinterestsofsecurity,economy,
identity,etc.,aswellaswithallegedanti-RussianmachinationsoftheWest.Asaresultofyearsofbrainwashing,courtesyofthe
KremlinsTVpropaganda,theseexplanationsarenowsharedbythemajorityofRussians.Moreover,somenaveforeignobservers
alsoheedthesejustificationsforavarietyreasonsforexample,asamarkofrespectfortheleadershipofapeoplewhoonce
defeatedfascism.
However,theseemingdelusionsofpersecutionandgrandeuroftodayspost-Sovietelitehavemorerationalunderpinningsthan
thePutinversteherarewillingtoadmitwiththeirpsychotherapeuticapproachtothefears,threatsandclaimsoftheKremlin.Putin
&Co.arefarfromparanoid.TheyarepatentlyawareoftheintegrityandsternnessofRussiasnuclearmilitarypowerandthey
intentionallyusethatpriceless(asitseemstothem)trumpcardinordertodetertheWestfrom,forinstance,providingdirectmilitary
assistancetoUkraine.ItisnotsomuchstrongemotionsandfearofNATObehindMoscowsrecklessforeignpolicy,asitisa
domesticpoliticalimperative,namelythestabilizationofRussiaskleptocracy-atleastintheshortterm.Russiatodayshouldbe
consideredonlyinpartasanaggrievedformersuperpowersufferingfromapost-imperialphantompain,andbynomeansasamere
pitifuloutsiderinageopoliticalbattledominatedbytheUnitedStates.InUkraine,theKremlinisntdefendingRussiasnational
interests,buttheprivatebenefits,privilegesandgoodsofRussiassuper-richrulers.ForPutin&Co.,theEuropeanizationofUkraine
mustfail,asitssuccessmayofferRussianshopeforchange,andpromptthemtoattemptsomethingsimilarinMoscow.
ThroughitsmilitaryescapadesinSyriaandDonbas,thecurrentKremlinadministrationhas,infact,struckaheavyblowagainst
Russiasvitalnationalinterests,havingsulliedrelationswiththeformerlybrotherlyUkrainians,aswellastheArabicworldand
Turkey,forthelong-term.Moreover,concurrentexclusionofRussiafromitsWesternprimarilyEuropeanandespeciallyGerman
political,economic,andotherpartnershipsputsthefutureofRussiainquestion.Afterall,theRussianeconomyneedsnotsomuch
EurasianeconomicintegrationasitdoesclosecooperationwiththeEuropeanUnionasakeypartnerinthefieldsoftrade,investment,
scienceand,ingeneral,modernizationofthecountry.
Initsrelationswithanincreasinglyself-confidentChina,RussiatoosuffersasaresultofthecoolingofherrelationswiththeWest,
whichBeijingskillfullytakesadvantageofinordertoacquireRussiancommoditiesatlowprices.Politicalandeconomicisolation
conjuredupbytheKremlinaswellasthegrowingchasmsinRussiasbudget,thankstoMoscowsforeignmilitarycampaigns,donot
bodewellfortheindustriallymis-developedRussianstate.TheKremlinsdeliberateescalationofglobaltensionsandmilitaryexploits,
whicharedisproportionatetoMoscowsactualgeopoliticalmight,onlyreinforcevariousexistingseriouspathologiesoftheRussian
economyandsociety.Thosewhoacceptallofthesenegativetendenciesandthemundanepersonalreasonsbehindthemwith
understandingseeminglyharborlittleempathyforRussians,andlittleconcernforthefutureofRussiaasacountry.
-Seemoreat:http://intersectionproject.eu/article/russia-europe/flaws-putinverstehers-russian-hermeneutics#sthash.xjHGiDRz.dpuf
.......ANDCONTRAST
From:MichaelAverko<michaelaverko@msn.com>
Subject:RussianEconomy[Now..........ThisisHowtheRussianSpin-MeistersSeeIt!!!]
To:
http://www.awarablogs.com/german-gref-is-wrong-about-russian-economy/
GermanGrefisSoWrongonRussianEconomy
TheCEOofRussiasbiggestbank,thestateownedSberbank,GermanGrefdeliveredascathingcriticismofthe
countryseconomyataneconomicforuminMoscow15thJanuary.AccordingtoGref,thebiggesttrendintheworld
economyistheendofthehydrocarbonera.HewillinglysharesthebeliefpeddledintheWesternmediathatRussia
hasfoolishlyreliedonaneconomicmodelbasedonexportofoilandgaswhileneglectingtodevelopitsindustryand
modernsectorsoftheeconomy.Russiaisthusdoomed,Grefpointsout,torankamongthedownshiftercountries
sheddingtheirwealthastheoilmoneydrains.
Strangeenough,Grefcontendsthatthedramaticfallinthepriceofoilisduetotheradicalchangesinglobalenergy
consumptionpatterns.Obviously,nocoherentanalysisoftheproblemanditspossiblesolutionscanfollowfromsuch
faultypremises.Thedropintheoilpricehascertainlynotbeencausedbyanyshiftstoalternativeenergysources
anditisdubiousiftherehasbeenadecreaseinconsumptionatallbeyondtheeffectoftheoveralldownturninthe
worldeconomy.Inreality,thesharpfallintheoilpricereflectsthisglobaldownturn,coupledwiththeover-supply
causedbyNorthAmericanspeculativeinvestmentinnewoilwellsfueledbyzero-financinglendingtosuperrisky
projects,andthesanctionstradewars.
Lookaround,theWestissinking
ThisbringsustooneofthemostfundamentaldefectsinthethinkingofGrefandhisilk:thecriticismofRussias
economywithoutanyconsiderationtotheglobaleconomyatlarge.Theypointatrealandinventedproblemsin
theRussianeconomywhilethinkingorlettingout(?)thattherestoftheworld,andinparticulartheWest,would
beperformingwellanddeveloping,thankstosomepresumedsuperiorpoliticalandeconomicmodel.Buttheuglyfact
isthattheWesterneconomieshavetotallyfailedandareabletokeepupafeeblefaadeofdecencyonlythanksto
massiveborrowingasshownbythisAwaraAccountingstudy.Thistheyhavebeenabletodoforthepast10years
onthestrengthoftheWesternmonopolycurrenciesthathaveenabledvirtuallyzero-rateinterestsandstable
currenciesnotwithstandingdestructiveandfatallendingonalllevelsofeconomicactors:state,corporateand
household.Grefwouldbewelladvisedtoknowthatwhatweareexperiencingtodayisnotasmuchtheendofany
hydrocarboneraasitistheendofthiseraofmassiveWesternborrowingwithwhichthetwo-decadelong
consumptionbingeiskeptrolling.InSeptember2015,wepublishedastudyontheperniciouseffectsofthissuicidal
WesterndebtBacchanaliawithpredictionsofanimminentcrashofthewholesystem.ThisAwaraAccountingstudy
titledHowtheDollarandEuromonopoliesdestroyedtherealmarketeconomy.AndwhatHayektoldabouttheneed
forcompetingcurrenciescanbeaccessedhere.
TheliberalcriticsoftheRussianeconomywantustothinkthattheWestisdoingwellbecauseofsomesupposed
superioreconomicmodelofwhatishypedasinnovativeeconomies.TherealpictureacrosstheWest,USA,Canada,
Australia,Japan,theEU,isbleakwithfallingindustrialproduction,failingexports,massivebudgetdeficits,scaring
trendsinpovertyandhugechronicunemployment,whichthegovernmentstrytohideinofficialstatisticsby
removingjoblesspeoplefromthestatistics.TheonlyrealinnovationintheWestduringthelastdecadehasbeenthe
innovationoftheperpetualdebtbingeonlyalas,itwillnotbeperpetual.
Youmustlookbeyondandbeneaththeeasysurface
statistics
OnthecontrarynoneofthisisapplicabletoRussia.Admittedly,theRussianeconomyissufferingbutitisnotinany
wayadoomorachronicandfataldepressionasitisintheWest.WhatRussiaissufferingfromare:theglobal
downturn,sanctionsandtradewars.Buttheeffectoftheseisnotadepressionorendtodevelopment,onthe
contrarytheseconditionsspurthecountrysfundamentalindustrialdevelopment.Grefandconsortswanttobe
perceivedasbeingengagedinstrategicthinkingandyetalltheydoispeddlesurfaceimagesbasedonthemost
superficialeconomicdata.ItiseasytofallintothetrapofthinkingsomethingisfundamentallywrongwithRussia
whentheGDPisdownsome3.8%year-on-yearandthecurrencyseemstobeinfreefall.Buttothinkstrategically
youwouldhavetopenetratethesurfacelevelandengageinamorefundamentalanalysisoftheeconomicconditions
andtrends.Thefirststepwouldbetochoosewhetheronewantstobadmouththeeconomyoranalyzeit.Ifone
optsforthelatteroption,thenonewouldhavetostoppickingandchoosingamongtheeasystatisticsinaneffort
toonlylistthebadones.Thereisawealthofgooddatadanglingrightinfrontofthenosesoftheliberalsifthey
justdaredtoreachoutforit.Wehavetheexcellentjobdata,5.8%unemployment(November2015)whichisbetter
thaninanyoftheWesterncountries.Industrialproductionwasoverallslightlydownforyear2015(-3.5%),whichis
notatallthatbadconsideringtheextraordinaryglobalsituationandtheWesternhostilityagainstRussia.Moreover,
beyondthesum-totalofthestatistics,thereareseveralsectorsoftheindustrythataredevelopingheartily,for
example,high-techindustries,pharmaceuticalsandfood,andofcourse,themilitaryindustrywhichisnowbeingso
successfullyshowcasedinSyria.
Nobodysuffocatesfromabitofbelt-tightening
Thepicture,whichemergesbehindthetalkofdoomandgloomcombinedwiththisdoseofrealityisthatRussiahas
notfailed,isnotfailing,buthasmerelyshed10%ofitssurfacewealth.Imaginearichpersonbecoming10%less
rich.Iwouldthinkthatdoesnotspelldoomandgloom,ratheryouadjustyourconsumption,refineyourdevelopment
plansandworkharder.ThisispreciselywhatRussiahasdone.ThiswhereastheWestactsasadecadentheirto
pastwealthrefusingtofacethenewrealitiesanddenyingtheimminentfinancialruintryingtoupholdtheformerlife
stylebymortgagingtheestateandkeepingborrowingandborrowing,tilltheend.
The10%dropinwealthisneatlybackedupbythefigureonthedisposableincomeofRussians,whichisdownas
muchovertheyear.
ThehuffsandthepuffsoftheWestdidnottoppleRussia,
noritsleader
So,thewindfalloilwealthiswashedawayandtheWesternfinancingdriedupduetobankingsanctions.Andwhat
happened?Russiais10%lesswelloff.Couldbe,butthatishardlyacatastrophe.Onthecontrary,Iwouldthinkthat
thisisonemoreeconomicmiracle,thefactthattheRussianeconomyanywayprovedsoresilient.Well,actuallyI
wouldnotcallitamiracle,anditshouldnotcomeasamiracleforthosewhotookpartofmystudyontheRussian
economy(December2014) StudyonRussianeconomy.Diversfication,ModernizationandtheRoleoftheStatein
Russiaseconomy. Inthisstudy,Ipuncturedawholerangeoffaultypropagandamythsaboutthehealthand
developingtrendsoftheRussianeconomy.IshowedthatitwastotallymisguidedtoclaimthattheRussianeconomy
wasallaboutoilandgas,tellingthattheshareofoilandgaswasonly16%oftheeconomy.Thestudyshowedhow
Russiainfacthaddiversifiedandmodernizeditseconomyandhowhealthythegrowthtrajectoryoftheindustryand
otherfundamentalandmodernsectorsoftheRussianeconomyhadbeensofarduringPutinspresidencysince2000.
Iarguedinthestudy,nottoputtoofineapointonit,thatWesterneconomiccoverageaboutRussiaamountedto
onebigpropagandalie.Mostimportantly,IwarnedtheWesternleadersagainstthedangersoftheirself-delusional
propaganda,whichmighttemptthemtogofortheeasyfinalsolutionintheRussianquestion,believingthatRussia
wasindustriallyweakandwithahuffandapuffbythebigbadWesternwolftheRussianeconomichousewould
cometopplingdownlikethatofthefirsttwointhestoryoftheThreeLittlePigs.ButasIforewarned,theRussian
housewaslikethethirdone,builtofbricks,orshouldwesayBRICS.Actuallythestoryisquitemetaphoric:The
thirdpigbuildsahouseofbricks.Thewolffailstoblowdownthehouse.Hethenattemptstotrickthepigoutofthe
housebyaskingtomeethimatvariousplaces[ReadUkraine,Syria],butheisoutwittedeachtime.Finally,thewolf
resolvestocomedownthechimney[sanctionsandtradewar],whereuponthepigcatchesthewolfinacauldronof
boilingwater,slamsthelidon,thencooksandeatshim.
Incidentally,Iwasvindicatedasthetwoyearsofeconomicwarhasprovenmyanalysisvalidandsolid.TheRussian
economylargelywithstoodtheassault.Atthesametime,thesanctionswarledtoRussiafinallybreakingoffthe
dalliancewiththeWestandconsequentlyemergingasaveritableworldpower,Syriabeingabrilliantexampleofwhat
thatmeans.Andtheeconomywilldevelopinthissamevein,nodoubt.
Russianeedstime,allthereformsarealreadyinplace
Therehasbeensomebelt-tightening,andtherewillevidentlybesomemoreofit,butlargelyRussiaseconomyis
standingonsolidground.Moreover,whatwehaveseensofaristheeffectthattheblitzkrieghadonRussiainthe
twofirstyears.WhatwehavenotseenyetareRussiasnewindustrialcapacitythatisinthemaking.Theanalysts
wanttodenigrateRussiaseffortsonimportsubstitutionproductionbypointingoutthatthestatisticsonindustryare
slightlydown.HitlermadeasimilarmistakebeforeStalinkickstartedthearmsindustryafterherelocateditinto
SiberiafollowingthepreviousGermanattackonRussia.Butastheyarenorealanalyststheytotallyignorethelead-
timeindevelopingnewproductsandwholeindustriesobviouslyitwilltakesometimebeforethenewlyengineered
productswillrollofftheproductionlines.Expecttostartseeingthatincreasinglyfromthesecondhalfofthecurrent
year.Onethingtowatch,forexample,istheaviationindustrywhichisabouttotakeofflikePhoenixfromtheashes
oftheliberaldestructionofRussianeconomyinthe1990s.
Again,Iamreminded,RussiadoesnotneedanyofGrefsandKudrinsmuchtoutedandelusivelyformulated
reforms.Russianeedstime.Russiahastime,andtimeisonRussiasside.Iargue,thatapartfromtheexternalglobal
economicconstraintsthereisnothingfundamentallywrongorbadlydoneintheRussianeconomy.Exceptforone
thing:ThepunitivelyhighinterestratesmaintainedbytheCentralBank,whichdoesnotunderstandthattheinflation
inRussiaisnotamonetaryissuebutcausedbysupplysideconstraints.
Inflation,thereintheproblem,andthesolution
Historicallythepost-SovietRussiahassufferedfromproducingtoolittledomesticallyandimportingtoobigpartof
everythingconsumed.Thisledtotwoformsofinflationarypressure:withhugegrowthsince2000theimported
suppliesdidnotkeepupwiththedemand,andthepricesbecamedirectlydependentontherublescurrencyrate,a
dropintherubleratedirectlypushinguptheinflation.
However,thepictureisbeginningtochangeasRussiaproducesmuchmorelocally.Localproductionwillstarttotear
downtheumbilicalcordbetweenpricesandcurrencyrate.Thisisalreadyhappening.Inthelasttwoyearsthedollar
ratehasmorethandoubled,amorethan100%increaseintherubletodollar.Inthesametwoyears,theprice
inflationwasonlyabout25%.Thus,alreadytheperniciousrelationhasbeensignificantlyweakened.Yetastronger
reductionisexpectedaslocalproductionwillincreasinglyreplaceimports.Infact,importstoRussiaarealreadyquite
lowinaglobalcomparison.Forexample,themonthlyimportvolumeoftinyFinland,witha5millionpopulation,is
approximately5billionUSD.ThiscompareswithRussiasmonthlyimportsatalevelof15billion,thatis,Russiawith
its30-timesbiggerpopulationimportsonlythreetimesmoreproductsthanFinland.Thisisaftera40%reductionof
importsin2015.Moreover,Iwouldexpecttheimportvolumesfurthertodecreasethisyear,perhapsby10to15%.
Hereby,Russiasimportstructurehasundergonearemarkablerehabilitationawayfromconsumptiontowardspurchase
ofmachineryandequipmentaswellascrucialrawmaterialsandingredientsforinvestmentsinthefutureand
growth.Importoffoodisdowntolessthan2billionUSDpermonth.Thisequallessthan15dollarperperson,or
about2-3%ofaveragenetdisposablecapital.(Andevenso,thebulkofthefoodimportsarenowadaysfurther
processedinRussia).
Whileinflation,andtheaccompanyinghighinterestrates,hasbeenthebiggestproblemoftheRussianeconomy,it
alsoformsitsgreatestreserveforfuturegrowth.AndthisissomethingthatthemediahypedRussia-expertshave
totallymissed.Theinflationwillinevitablygodownsoonerorlater,andwiththattheinterestrates,andthelower
interestrateswillagainfueleconomicgrowth.Strangetheydontgetit,especiallybecauseallthegrowth,ifany,
therehasbeenintheWesterneconomies(actuallythekeepingofthesurfaceafloat)hasbeenentirelyduetothe
constantdecreaseoftheirinterestratesduringthelast10years.
Thelatestdataoninflationisencouraging.Therenewedsignificantdropintherublehasnotcausedanewspiralin
inflationalbeitkeepingitabithigherthanitwouldotherwisehavebeen.Thereadingforfirst10daysofJanuary
predictedamonthlyinflationofabout1%,downfrom3.9%ofJanuary2015.Ifthislevelwouldbemaintained
throughFebruaryandMarch,thenthecumulativeannualinflationwoulddroptolevelsof9-10%(fromlastyears
morethan16%),andtheexpectedannualinflationwould,consideringseasonalfluctuations,presscloserto6%.
Russiaisatruemarketeconomy
ContrarytothegeneralbeliefsharedintheWest,todaysRussiaisaveritablemarketeconomy,moresothanthe
West.FeaturesoftheRussianmarketeconomyare,amongotherthings:afreelyconvertibleandfluctuating
currency,realinterestrates,lowtaxation,andflexiblelabormarkets.Intheconditionsofthemarket,thehigh
interestratesofthelastfewyearshavecausedonereallybeneficialoutcomeinthattheyhaveforcedenterprises
tocontinuouslyimprovetheircompetitivenessbysheddingexcessweightandrestructureoperations.Itisdifficultto
makeaprofitwhenyoumustpay15%andmoreforyourfinancingandthereforeRussiancompanieshavebeen
forcedtoadjustandnowtheyarebeginningtobequiteleanandmeanandfittotakeontheglobalchallenges.
Thegloballookoutfor2016isindeedverybadinallaspectswhatwithascarygeopoliticalsituationandincreased
riskforafatalwarandtheglobaleconomyinjitters.Russiamuststayitscourseandnotwaver.Russiahasagood
chancetoemergeasthevictorwhenthedustsettlesImeantheeconomy,also.
From:YHF<........edu>
Subject:LookAtThis---WellDoneMr.Dugin!!WellDone!!![ED:Anti-Americanismcansuremakestrangebed-
fellows......"MORALEQUIVALENCE"WITHA"BADATTITUDE"][PS:SHOOT,WHATWILLRU
DEZINFORMTHINKOFNEXT?]
PhotoIllustrationbyTheDailyBeast
TerrellJermaineStarr
TerrellJermaineStarr
MYNAMEISMYNAME
01.17.1612:01AMET

VladimirPutinIsRussiasMarloStanfield
WanttounderstandhowtohandlePutin?GobackandwatchTheWire.
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinhasabrotherfromanothermother:MarloStanfield,the
fictionalkingpinfromtheclassicHBOseries,TheWire.ThegangsterDNAbothmenshareare
almostidenticalBothmenarebriefandtothepoint.Neithergivesafuckaboutrulesthatdo
notfavortheirownself-interests,nordotheyhaveaproblemtoolingupifyouthreaten
underminetheirauthority.AndthesoonerAmericanpolicymakersseethesimilarities,the
betterableWashingtonwillbeabletohandlePutinsMoscow.
TheRussianleaderwantstowearTheCrown,tousesomeWiretalk.Hewantsto
havehisownempire,justlikeAmericadoes.Itmaybemorallywrongtoannexpartsof
Ukraineandsetupshopinintheeasternpartofitsnation,butsowhat.Thatswhat
gangstersdo.Theytakeshitandaskanymothafuckatosteptothemiftheyhaveaproblem
withit.InPutinsmind,heisdoingnothingmorethanwhatAmericadidtopositionitself
asaworldpower:TheUnitedStateswasfoundedbywhitemenwhokilledoffAmerican
Indianswhowereherefirst.ItenslavedmillionsofpeoplefromAfricatobuildupthe
economyand,later,setupJimCrowtokeepblackpeopleincheckfordecadesafterthat
didntworkout.Americanglobaldominanceexists,inpart,becauseWashingtonkilledoff
millionsofpeoplethroughwarandslavery.ThatiswhatiswearingTheCrownisabout
ininternationalrelations:Takingshitbecauseyoucan.
Youmayarguethatdrawingacomparisonbetweenareal-lifeworldleaderandafictional
televisioncharacterunderminestheseriousnessofanyintellectualdiscourseonPutinsglobal
anddomesticinfluence.Tothecontrary,IbelievePutinandMarlosharethesameworldview
andoperatewithinstructuresthatareequallybrokenandflawed.Understandoneman,and
youllgettheother.
Hereareexamplestohelp:
PutinTookOverEasternUkraineInMarloFashion
Thisspotallbuiltupandshit.Weneedit,yo.MarloStanfield
TherewasasceneinSeasonFourwhereMarlo,alongwithhistopenforcersSnoopandChris,
approacheddealerBodieBroadusonhisdrugcorner.Bodiehadthecornerhummingwith
business,butMarlowantedit.Thisspotallbuiltupandshit,Marlotoldhim.Weneedit,
yo.
Bodiehadthreewaystorespond.HecouldtakeMarlospackagehisheroinsupplyleavethe
corneraltogether,orfightMarlo.Now,bythispointintheseries,Bodiehadnoprotection.His
formeremployer,theBarksdaleOrganization,fellapartafteritsleaderswereeitherarrested
orkilled.Bodiewasbyhimselfandcouldntdefendhisterritory,sohehadtobuydrugsfrom
Marlountilhisnewbosseventuallykilledhimforsnitchingtothecops.
LikeBodie,theleadersofUkrainefoundthemselvesdefenselessagainstastronger,
expansionistPutinwho,himself,hasnorespectforboundaries.Afterprotesterstooktothe
streetsinKievinNovemberof2013toprotestformerUkrainianPresidentViktorYanukovychs
refusaltosignatradeagreementthatwouldhaveintegratedthecountrymorecloselyinto
theEUeconomy,Putinsoonbackedanti-governmentrebelsintheeastwithmilitarysupport
theywouldeventuallytakeoverseveralkeyregionalcitiesandRussiaannexedCrimea.
Basically,PutintookacornerofUkrainethatwasbuiltupandhasforceditsleadershipto
accepthisdiplomacytosolveaproblemhecreated.AccordingtotheUN,morethan9,000
peoplehavediedsincethewarbrokeinthespringof2014.Notevenseveralroundsof
sanctionsagainstMoscowandsummitsconvenedtoendtheviolencehasconvincedPutin
withdrawhistroopsoutofUkraine.
LikeMarlo,Putindoesnotbelieveinpullingoutofterritoryhebelievesishis.UntilUkraine
getsenoughmuscletofightPutin,theyllhavetoaccepthispackage.Fornow,thatpackage
isRussiantroopsineastUkraineandtheannexationofCrimea.
MarlosVacantsOperateLikePutinsPrisonSystem
Marlocanmakeaninconvenientniggadisappear,canthe?PropositionJoe
Putinsmessagewasclear:Imaybeagangster,butsoareyou.Hewaslettingtheworld
knowthatmynameismyname.
InSeasonFouroftheseries,MarlowaswinningaviolentstreetwaragainsttheBarksdale
Organizationandothersmallerdrugoutfits.WhenMarlowantedsomeoneexecuted,hewould
dispatchChrisandSnooptokillthepersoninanabandonedhome,nailtheentranceshutwith
apowergunandleavetheirbodies.Onthestreets,theseMarlo-madetombswereknownas
vacants.Anyonewhodaredtocrosstheyoungdruglordfoundhimselfinone.
PropositionJoe,aneastsidedruglordwhoorganizedtheco-opwherethecitystopdope
boyshandledstreetdisputesunderanUnitedNations-likeframework,jokedduringoneoftheir
meetingsthatMarlocanmakeaninconvenientniggadisappear,canthe?
InRussia,theprisonsystemservesasPutinsvacants.
Almostanyonewhoopenlyopposeshispowerendsuparrestedonatrumped-upchargeand
slappedwithalengthyprisonterm.ThemostfamouspersontofindhimselfinPutinsvacants
wasMikhailKhodorkovsky,theownerofYukos,thelargestoilcompanyinRussiaintheearly
2000s.Khodorkovskyswealthwasestimatedtobe$15billionatonepoint,accordingto
Forbes.AfterPutinwonthepresidencyin2000,hemetwiththecountryskeyoligarchsin
Februaryofthatyearandtoldthemhewouldnotinterferewiththeirbusinessesaslongas
theystayedoutofpolitics.KhodorkovskydidnotheedPutinswarningandbegansupporting
hisopposition.Hewaseventuallyarrestedonfraud,taxevasion,andotherfinancialcrimes.
Thenhewasheldinprisonfortwoyearsbeforehewastriedandsentencedtonineyears
behindbarsin2005Khodorkovskywasreleasedin2013andisnowlivingoutsideofRussia.
ButtheformerbillionaireisnttheonlypersontohavefoundhimselfinPutinsvacants.
Undera2014lawdesignedtosuppresspoliticaldissent,anyonewhoisarrestedfordisrupting
apublicspacemorethantwicewithina180-dayperiodissubjecttoarrestandastiffprison
termofuptofiveyears.Anti-governmentprotestershavebeensentencedtolengthyprisonfor
termsofoneyearandmoreinrecentmonths.Human-rightsgroupshavecalledsentences
harshandafreakviolationofcivilliberties.But,inordertodoanythingonPutinsstreets,
youhavetoseekhispermissionfirst.Protestingthegovernmentisntoneofthem.Like
Marlo,Putincanmakeaninconvenientpoliticalfoedisappearinvacantsofhisown.What
makeshimworsethanMarloisthathedoesnthavetoresorttousingboarded-uphousesin
desolatepartsoftown.TheRussianprisonsystemisPutinsvacantsandRussianswhodare
topubliclyopposehispowerknowtheyllendupinone.
PutinAddressedTheUNGeneralAssemblyInMarlo-LikeFashion
Mynameismyname.MarloStanfield
WhenPutinspokebeforetheUNGeneralAssemblyinOctoberaftera10-yearabsence,he
cametoNewYorktotellworldleaderswhoRussiawasandhowheexpectedothersto
engageMoscow.Andiftheydidntlikeit,tough.ThesanctionsBrusselsandWashington
orchestratedagainstRussiaoveritsinvasionofUkrainehadbeguntohititseconomyhardat
thispoint,soheprobablyfelttheneedtospeakforcefullytoshowtheRussianpeoplehe
wouldnotbepunkedbytheWest.
Similarly,MarlohadtolaydownthelawtowardtheendofSeasonFive.Heandhisthreetop
lieutenantswerearrestedanddetainedforconspiracytodistributenarcotics.Intheirholding
cell,oneofthemtoldMarlothatOmarLittle,themostnotoriousrobberofdrugdealersin
Baltimore,hadbeencallinghimoutbynameonthestreets.Marlotookthatasathreattohis
streetcredandorderedhismentoletthehoodknowheisntapunkandwilltakeoutanyone
whosecond-guesseshisgangster.
Mynamewasonthestreet?Whenwebouncefromthisshithere,yougongodownonthose
cornersandletthempeopleknow,worddidnotgetbacktome.LetemknowMarlostepto
anymuthafuckinbody.Omar.Barksdale.Whatever.
Mynameismyname.
ThatprettymuchsumsupPutinsspeechlastyear.Callingoutworldleadersformanipulating
theglobaldiplomaticprocesstobenefitafewprivilegednations,hesaid:However,thebloc
thinkingofthetimesoftheColdWarandthedesiretoexplorenewgeopoliticalareasisstill
presentamongsomeofourcolleagues.First,theycontinuetheirpolicyofexpandingNATO.
Whatfor?IftheWarsawBlocstoppeditsexistence,theSovietUnionhavecollapsedand,
nevertheless,theNATOcontinuesexpandingaswellasitsmilitaryinfrastructure.Thenthey
offeredthepoorSovietcountriesafalsechoice:eithertobewiththeWestorwiththeEast.
Soonerorlater,thislogicofconfrontationwasboundtosparkoffagravegeopoliticalcrisis.
ThisisexactlywhathappenedinUkraine,wherethediscontentofpopulationwiththecurrent
authoritieswasusedandthemilitarycoupwasorchestratedfromoutsidethattriggereda
civilwarasaresult.
Translation:IftheWestcanexpanditsempire,socanwe.Russiahasarighttodowhatthe
hellwewanttodoinourcountryandareasthatweconsidertobewithinoursphereof
influence,namelyUkraine.Ifwewanttoinvadeacountry,annexahugechunkofitand
regulateitspoliticaloutcomes,wewill.
Duringhisspeech,hedidntexpressregretovertheliveslostduringthewarinUkraineor
admittoanywrongdoingforhistroopsbeingthere.(HedeniesRussiantroopsareconducting
offensivemilitaryoperations).HeeventookshotsattheUnitedStatesandEuropeforits
NATOoperationinLibyabyessentiallysayingitleftapowervacuumforterroriststofill.I
cannothelpaskingthosewhohavecausedthesituation,doyourealizenowwhatyouve
done?ButIamafraidnooneisgoingtoanswerthat,hesaid.Indeed,policiesbasedon
self-conceitandbeliefinonesexceptionalityandimpunityhaveneverbeenabandoned.
Putinsmessagewasclear:Imaybeagangster,butsoareyou.Hewaslettingtheworld
knowthatmynameismyname.
Putinhasneverportrayedhimselftobesomethingheisnt.LikeMarlo,histhirstforpower
leaveshimverylittlewiggletonegotiatewithdissentingvoices.InRussia,doingsowould
markhimasweakandhisadversarieswilltryhim.Thatswhyhecreateslawsthatlockup
anti-governmentprotestersforuptofiveyears.Kremlinpoliticsareabloodsport.Theway
PutinapproachespoliticsisverymuchhowMarloviewsthedruggame.Therewasascenein
theshowwhereMarloshopliftedapackofcandyinplainviewoftheguardonduty.Whenthe
guardconfrontedhimtoexplainhowdisrespectedhefelt,Marlosresponsewas,Youwantit
oneway.Butitstheotherway.LikemanypeoplewhodisrespectedMarlo,theguardended
updead.
ThoughnoonecanlinkPutintotheirdeaths,hismostprominentopponentsallendupdead:
BorisNemtsovwasshotandkilledneartheKremlininFebruarytwodaysbeforehewasto
leadanoppositionrally.AnnaPolitkovskaya,anactivistjournalistwhoearnedinternational
acclaimoverhercoverageaccusingtheRussiangovernmentofhuman-rightsabusesin
Chechnya,wasshotdeadoutsideofherapartmentin2006.AlexanderLitvinenko,aformer
secretserviceagent,diedinNovemberof2006afterbeingpoisonedwithadeadlydoseof
radioactivepolonium.ItisallegedthatRussiansecurityservicemencarriedoutthepoisoning
tosilenceLitvinenkoafterheblamedthegovernmentfororchestratingthe1999apartment
bombingsinRussiasoitcouldthenblameitonChechenrebelstojustifyitsinvasionlater
thatyear.
LikePutin,Marlowasaccusedofmurder.Butthecopscouldntfindenoughevidencetolink
himtoanybodies.Intheirownways,bothmenoperatelikeTeflonDons.
ThatisprettymuchwheretheMarlo-Putincomparisoncomesfullcircle.Ininternational
politics,nooneshandsareclean.Putin,attheendoftheday,isaworldleaderwhois
lookingoutforRussiasinterestsandhisown.And,asmuchasIabhordrugdealing,Marlois
justapeginthewheelhouseofafuckedupcityinwhichallofitsinstitutionsarefailingthe
people.Thedruggameishorrible,butinternationalaffairsisjustasviciousandcorruptedby
thesamekindofgreedy,flawedplayerswholookdownontheMarlosoftheworld.
PutinsbehaviorinUkraineandtreatmentofhisownpeoplemayverywellfitthedescription
ofthuggery,butletsnotpretendAmericasownexpansionismandhuman-rightsabuses(the
secondIraqWar,numerousdocumentedCIAassassinationattemptsofworldleaders,over-
policingandmassincarcerationofmarginalizedgroupsforstarters)doesntmeasureupto
whattheRussianleaderisdoinginhisowncountry.Alsokeepinmindablackpersonlikeme
canwalkoutsideofmyhomehereinNewYorkCityandbechokedtodeathlikeEricGarneror
slammedtothegroundduringaroutinetrafficstopanddieinjailthreedayslaterlikeSandra
Bland.Yes,thedruggameMarloplayedinwasviciousandcruel.But,soisAmerican
imperialismandwhitesupremacy.
PutinsaidasmuchduringaninterviewwithCharlieRoseinOctober:Doyoubelievethat
everythingisperfectnowfromthepointofviewofDemocracynowintheUnitedStates?If
everythingwasperfect,therewouldntbetheproblemofFerguson.Therewouldbenoabuse
bythepolice.
ThoughRussiahasraceissuesofitsown,Putinhasapoint:Americaisthepotcallingthe
kettleblack.
Fromaforeignpolicystandpoint,wehavetostoppositioningAmericaasthemorenobleside
duringourengagementwithMoscowbecausebothcountriesareimperialistnationswith
expansionistagendas.Neitherisbetterthantheother.Theybothdofuckedupshittoweaker
states.AmericadidinvadeIraqin2003.AndNATOfeltitwasitsbusinesstotakeout
MuammarGaddafiinLibyain2011.AndletsnotevengetintotheUnitedStateslong,long
historyofinterferingtooftenterribleeffectinLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean.
ByviewingU.S.-RussianpolicythroughthelensofTheWire,Ibelievewecananalyzemore
effectivelyhowtobestengageMoscow.Buttobeclear,PutinislikeMarlo:theyreboth
gangsters.Butgivenhowdirtybothoftheirworldsare,Ijustdontthinkitsfairtosingle
themoutastheworstones.TheWireunderstoodthisandpositioneditsdepictionsofthe
goodguysandbadguysaccordingly.Toobadthemeninthree-piecesuitsinWashington
andBrusselscondemningPutinoverhisbehaviorcantlookattheirownactionswithsimilar
honestyandself-reflection.

Trump 10

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From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.

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DO WE WISH IT WAS NO STORM?

AH, TO BE A KID AGAIN!

SNOW STORMS WERE THE COOLEST!

WE COULD WALK DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH IMPUNITY

WE WERE IN ANOTHER WORLD -- PRISTINE WHITE WORLD -- A

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