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Demand Planning with SAP

Solutions: A Detailed Guide to


Features, Functions,
Implementation, and Best
Practices
Rick Anderson
Deloitte

Alistair Thornton
Deloitte Consulting
2009 Wellesley Information Services. All rights reserved.
0

In This Session What Well Cover


Demand Planning is usually a critical 5. S&OP
Meeting
The importance of a good forecast
process in a planning environment
Supply

SAP Demand Planning (DP) What it can do


4. Collection


1.
Demand
&
Functional
Aggregation
S&OP Planning
of Inputs Analysis
Cycle

Demand Planning overview


3. Cost 2.

Creating a forecast using DPs Statistical Models


Impact Integrated
Assess Analysis

Understand what SAP Demand Planning Enhancing a forecast with key DP tools
can do to support your forecasting SAP Demand Planning How to implement it
process
Planning and designing your DP solution

Configuring and testing your DP solution

Wrap-up
Get some best practices for
implementing SAP APO in your
organization

2 3

Modern Enterprises Have Unique Forecasting Challenges But There Are Compelling Reasons to Improve
Satisfy all customer requests (right product, right quantity, right In a recent article, Gartner says that using a robust forecasting
time) without carrying excess inventory process:
Create and analyze forecast data at different levels Improves forecast accuracy by 54%

Sales might want to create a forecast for customers Increases inventory turns by 33%

Operations might want to create a forecast for a plant Reduces inventory safety stock by 25%

Marketing might want to create a forecast for product brands Increases profit margins by reducing discounts

Enable communication across business units within an In another article, AMR Research comes to similar conclusions:
organization Organizations can expect a 10-25% improvement in forecast
Forecasts should not be produced in isolated silos accuracy through the implementation of better forecasting tools
Incorporate forecast data from supply chain partners into the and processes
demand planning process
Share data with customers, suppliers, contractors, etc.

4 5
The Value Proposition Reduced Forecast Error Some Organizations Still Dont Get It
Reducing forecast error has a positive financial impact that Despite this potential benefit, many demand planning processes
propagates throughout the entire supply chain suffer from these symptoms
Manufacturing Demand Planning is isolated, and not well integrated with other
Finance Production schedule
Customer Service Inventory carrying cost planning and execution processes
disruptions through rush
Fill rates orders
Percentage of orders Increased outsourcing Planning and execution processes do not explicitly account for
shipped complete
Back orders leading to
Increased overtime expense
forecast errors
customer service issues
On-time shipment Warehousing The demand planning system is reactive, due to limited
Forecast Excess space/storage cost
performance
Customer complaints Error Inconsistent shipping/
information and visibility of future demand
Input receiving volumes
Multiple systems used for forecasting, planning, and execution
and are not integrated
Inventory Management Transportation
Supply not aligned with Inconsistent shipment
demand volumes and sizes
Low inventory turns Sales and Marketing Heavy use of premium/
High obsolescence Lost sales opportunities expensive space/storage cost
Tarnished brand image and
questionable customer
loyalty 6 7

Modern Demand Planning Processes What Well Cover


Drive all planning and The importance of a good forecast
scheduling activities in the SAP Demand Planning (DP) What it can do
Demand Planning
downstream supply chain Demand Planning overview
Are fully integrated with Creating a forecast using DPs Statistical Models
other forecasting processes, Supply Network
Enhancing a forecast with key DP tools
driving a consensus- Planning
oriented approach SAP Demand Planning How to implement it
Measure and track accuracy/ Production Planning and designing your DP solution
Planning
error accurately and frequently Configuring and testing your DP solution
to drive improvement Wrap-up
Are tightly integrated with other forecasting, planning, and
execution systems in an operational environment

8 9

SAP Demand Planning Is Part of SAP SCM 2007 SAP Demand Planning The 50,000 Foot View
Planned Orders
DP SNP PP/DS gATP TP/VS SAP ERP
(Production, Transport)

SAP APO

Demand Planning Supply Network Production Global Available- Transportation


SNP/PP/DS
Planning (SNP) Planning/ to-Promise Planning/
Forecasting
Detailed Capable-to-Promise Vehicle
Simulating Network Modeling
Scheduling Scheduling
Allocation
Collaboration Master Scheduling
Planning
Substitution
Route Optimization SAP BI
Monitoring Deployment Scheduling Consolidation
Trans. Load Builder Monitoring Carrier Selection
Vendor Managed
DP
Tendering
Inventory (VMI)

Historical Data
(Shipments, Orders)

SAP SCM
Non-SAP
10 11
SAP Demand Planning The 5,000 Foot View SAP Demand Planning Requirements and Misconceptions
Demand REQUIREMENTS MISCONCEPTIONS
MISCONCEPTIONS
DemandPlanning
PlanningTools:
Tools: REQUIREMENTS
Collaborative
CollaborativeForecasting
Forecasting I Ineed
needBW
BWininorder
ordertotouse
useDP
DP
Consensus-based
Good,
Good,clean
cleandata
data
Consensus-basedForecasting
Forecasting I Ineed
needSAP
SAPERP
ERPininorder
ordertotouse
useDP
DP
Promotional
PromotionalPlanning
Planning DEV,
DEV,QA,
QA,and
andPROD
PRODservers
servers I Ineed
needtotoimplement
implementthe
theother
otherSAP
SAPAPO
APO
Lifecycle
LifecycleManagement
Management
Input Data Due
Duetotouse
useofofliveCache,
liveCache,servers
servers modules
modulesininorder
ordertotouse
useDP
DP
Advanced
AdvancedMacros
Macros
Accuracy Reporting
Accuracy Reporting 9 Collaborative must
musthave
haveadequate
adequatememory
memory(more
(more I Ican
canonly
onlyuse
useDP
DPtotocreate
createaaquantity-
quantity-
on based
basedforecast
Forecasts onthis
thislater)
later) forecast
Anticipation of I Icant
cantdo
doany
anyreporting
reportingout
outofofDP
DP
Demand Planning Data Mart
9 History Orders/ IfIfusing
usingwith
withSAP
SAPERP
ERPor orSNP/PP/DS,
SNP/PP/DS,
Future Demand Shipments, etc. integration
integrationmodels
modelsmust
mustbebe
Point of Sale generated
generatedininSAPSAPERP
ERPand
andall
allneeded
9
(POS) Data needed
master
masterdata
datamust
mustbebetransported
transportedtoto
9 Nielsen/Information
SAP
SAPAPOAPO
Resources, Inc.
Statistical Methods: IfIfusing
(IRI) Data usingwith
withSAP
SAPNetWeaver
NetWeaverBI, BI,the
the
Multi-Model Approach SAP
Average Models
9 Flat File SAPNetWeaver
NetWeaverBI BIsystem
systemmust
mustbe be
Seasonal
created
createdas asaasource
sourcesystem
systemininSAP
SAP
Causal Factors APO
APO(same
(sameforforSAP
SAPERP)
ERP)
Trend, Seasonal Trend
Composite Models
Pick Best
12 13

SAP Demand Planning Comparison What Well Cover


SAP Demand
Area Functionality Planning SAP ERP The importance of a good forecast
Basic Methods (trend, seasonality, etc.)
SAP Demand Planning (DP) What it can do

Advanced Methods (multiple linear regression)



Collaborative Forecasting (over Internet) |
Demand Planning overview
Forecasting Characteristics-Based Forecasting (CBF)

Multiple Levels of Forecasting (Top Down, Creating a forecast using DPs Statistical Models
Bottom Up, Middle Out)

Ease of Consensus Forecasting | Enhancing a forecast with key DP tools


Predefined Metrics
SAP Demand Planning How to implement it
|

Accuracy Ex-post Analysis |



Outlier Corrections
Planning and designing your DP solution
Phase In |

Life Cycle Planning Phase Out | Configuring and testing your DP solution
Like Profiles
Wrap-up
|

Basic Promotions |

Promotion Planning
Cannibalization |

Standard SAP BW Connection |


Reporting Ad Hoc SAP Business Explorer (SAP BEx)
Analyzer |

14 15

Creating a Forecast Using DPs Statistical Models 1 Univariate/Time Series Forecasting Models
1 Univariate/Time Series models Univariate forecasting is better known as time series
2 Multivariate/Causal analysis forecasting
3 Composite models A time series consists of data collected, recorded, or observed
over successive increments of time
Univariate models detect and project the following statistical
patterns
Constant

Trend

Seasonal

16 17
1 Univariate/Time Series Forecasting Models (cont.) 1 Univariate/Time Series Forecasting Models (cont.)
Univariate models use only one independent and one dependent The purpose is to model the patterns of past demands in order to
variable project them into the future
The independent variable is time (day, week, month, etc.) Good in very short-term horizon
The dependent variable is something like sales or shipments Requires past, internal data to forecast the future
Time series are analyzed to discover past patterns of variability Most cost effective and easily systematized
that can be used to forecast future values Forecaster should have an understanding of statistics
The assumption is that past patterns will continue in the future

Poor for products that have long lead times, are


promotion driven, are competitor influenced, or
are new products

Fair for products that have low or sporadic sales


Good for products that are inherently seasonal
18 19

1 Univariate/Time Series Models: Types of Approaches 1 Selecting the Right Univariate/Time Series Model
Types of time series approaches in SAP Demand Planning General criteria for time series model selection
Constant

f Varies very little from a stable mean value Pattern of Data Model to Select
Trend
No Trend, No Seasonality Moving Average
f Falls or rises constantly over a long period of time with only
occasional deviations Exponential Smoothing
Seasonal Trend, No Seasonality Holts Model
f Periodically recurring peaks and troughs differ significantly Trend and Seasonality Winters Model
from a stable mean value
No Knowledge of Patterns in Auto Model Selection 1
Seasonal trend
Historical Data Auto Model Selection 2
f Periodically recurring peaks and troughs, but with a
continual increase or decrease in the mean value With Sporadic/Intermittent Crostons Model
Intermittent
Demand
f Demand is sporadic 20 21

1 Univariate/Time Series Forecast Strategies 1 Univariate/Time Series Forecasting Models: Advantages


Well suited to situations where sales forecast is needed for a
large number of products
Work very well for products with fairly stable sales
Can smooth out small random fluctuations, however

Easy to understand and use, and can easily be automated


Good for short-term forecasting
Only requires past observations of demand

22 23
1 Univariate/Time Series Forecasting Models:
Disadvantages 2 Multivariate/Causal Forecasting Models
Require a large amount of historical data Try to mathematically quantify the relationship between a
Adjust slowly to changes in sales dependant variable and one or more independent variables (e.g.,
This can cause significant forecast error if large fluctuations
batteries and hurricanes)
exist in current data Data requirements
Not well suited for forecasts with long-term horizons Actuals for all variables

Forecast for all independent variables

Uses statistical technique called Multiple Linear Regression (MLR)


and the following equation:

Constant Coefficients

Yi = o + 1X1 + 2X2... + n Xn

Sales Causal
24 History Factor 25

2 Multivariate/Causal Forecasting Models (MLR) 2 Multivariate/Causal Forecasting Models: Example


Make projections of the future by modeling the relationship History Future
between demand and other external variables (model causes of
demand)
More time-intensive and less easily systematized
Unit Sales

Forecaster should have solid training in statistics


Calculation
of Calculation
of sales
using
$2,000

N/A

$1,500
$1,000

Fair for products that have low or sporadic sales,

$800
or are new products
Good for products that are inherently seasonal, have Feb. Mar. April May June July Aug. Sept.
long lead times, are promotion-driven, or are Planned
Actual
competitor-influenced Advertising Advertising
Budget Budget
26 27

2 Multivariate/Causal Models: Advantages 2 Multivariate/Causal Models: Disadvantages


Support what-if analysis Accuracy depends on a consistent relationship between
Can provide accurate short, medium, and long-term forecast given independent and dependent variables
good leading indicators And an accurate estimate of the independent variable

It allows you to incorporate seemingly unrelated data into your Can be time-consuming to develop and maintain
Demand Plan Require strong understanding of statistics
Require larger data storage than time series models
MORE INPUTS = BETTER FORECAST!

28 29
3 Composite Forecast Models 3 Composite Forecast Models (cont.)
Combine forecasts from different statistical models Composite forecasting can be carried out in two ways:
Time series, causal, judgmental Standard

Can combine forecasts by: f Carry out forecasts with specified profiles and then total the

Averaging the forecasts giving each one equal or different results, taking the weighting factors/profiles into account
weights Automatic selection

Varying the weightings assigned to each forecast over time f You can specify that the system automatically selects the
best profile based on one measure of error

Constant Model Forecast = 30% Weighting


Seasonal Model Forecast = 30%
Causal Model Forecast = 40%

30 31

3 Composite Forecast Profile 3 Composite Forecast Profile (cont.)

32 33

3 Creating a Forecast Using DPs Statistical Models


3 Creating a Forecast Using DPs Statistical Models Tips Tips (cont.)
Think carefully about which levels you want to forecast You can manually select the error metric you wish to use as the
e.g., Local Brand, Product Group, Product Category, Customer basis for comparing forecast strategies
Your decision affects system performance, aggregation/ e.g., MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation), MAPE (Mean Absolute

disaggregation, InfoCube design, etc. Percentage Error), etc.


Causal analysis cannot determine which independent variables Used by the automatic selection models

are relevant Beware of spikes in historical data


It will, however, tell you how well an independent variable They can produce inaccurate spikes in the corresponding
explains changes in the dependent variable forecast
f MLR measures of fit f Outlier correction

Make sure that the data you want to use in causal analysis is not
only readily available, but of sound quality

34 35
What Well Cover Forecasting and Simulating Demand: Four Key Tools
The importance of a good forecast 1 Consensus-based forecasting
SAP Demand Planning (DP) What it can do 2 Collaborative forecasting
Demand Planning overview 3 Promotions planning
Creating a forecast using DPs Statistical Models 4 Life cycle planning
Enhancing a forecast with key DP tools

SAP Demand Planning How to implement it


Planning and designing your DP solution

Configuring and testing your DP solution

Wrap-up

36 37

1 Consensus-Based Forecasting 1 Consensus-Based Forecasting (cont.)


Planning Creates Marketing Adjusts
Allows different organizational units to generate their own 1 Statistical/Causal 2 Statistical Forecast
demand plans Forecast for all and Plans Promotions
SKUs using
According to their unique goals, time horizons, and Historical Data
forecasting philosophies Forecasts Are Reconciled
5 into a Single Consensus
Each forecast can then intelligently be reconciled into a single Forecast
consensus forecast
The result is a one-number demand plan that has been agreed to
and is owned by all stakeholders
Sales Adjusts Customer Adjusts
3 Statistical Forecast 4 Statistical Forecast
via Internet

38 39

1 Consensus-Based Forecasting (cont.) 2 Collaborative Forecasting: Typical Process


Tips CHANNEL PARTNER MANUFACTURER
When reconciling all of your different forecasts, start with a
simple technique (like average or weighted average) Account Demand
Manager Planner
f You can then progress to more advanced methods, like
weighting based on forecast accuracy
4 Al
Properly designing planning book/data views is critical er
tb
ro
ad Internet
f Key figures used in the consensus process must be 5 ca
s
Review tin
g
assigned to each planning book/data view involved forecasts For
(e .
g.,
6 eca e
s t ad ma Create
jus il ) consensus
tme 3
nt forecast

SAP
SAP Demand
Demand
Planning
Planning Create
Insert forecast
2 statistical
Internet 1 forecast

40 Source: SAP 41
2 Collaborative Forecasting 3 Promotions Planning
Tips Lets you create, monitor, and include promotional activities into
Agree on the process your demand planning process
f Define role of each partner Promotional activities can be one-time events or repeated

f Establish confidentiality of shared info


events
Examples of one-time events include the 2000 Millennium
f Commit resources
Examples of repeated events include coupon campaigns, new
f Agree on exception handling and performance measurement
advertising spots, and price cuts
Create a joint business plan and establish products
Can model promotions at a variety of different levels
f To be jointly managed, including category role, strategy, and
For specific customers or a group of customers
tactics
For specific products or a subset of products
Jointly agree on control techniques
For a specific region of a national sales campaign

42 43

3 Promotions Planning (cont.) 3 Promotions Planning: Cannibalization


The advantages of planning promotions separately are: Cannibalization is the negative impact that promoting one
You can compare forecasts with promotions to those without
material can have on similar materials
promotions In Demand Planning, we use Cannibalization Groups to model
these effects
You can correct the sales history by extracting past promotions
from it
f Thus obtaining unpromoted historical data for the baseline
forecast
The processes of interactive planning and promotion planning
can be kept completely separate
f e.g., the sales force might be responsible for interactive
planning while marketing is responsible for promotions
planning

44 45

3 Promotions Planning: Collaboration 4 Life Cycle Planning


Collaborative Promotion Planning enables sales department and Like Modeling
its respective customers to jointly develop a promotion plan
Use historical sales Actuals of the old product
Customers can review, approve/reject online promotions
patterns for new
Sales representatives will monitor promotions and activate products
them upon customers approval Forecasting of the new product
Phase In/Out Sales

Ramp down for


discontinued products Like
Life Cycle

Ramp up for newer products


Time

Actuals

Product A Product B

46 47
5 Seasonal Planning What Well Cover
Prior to SAP APO 5.0, the system defined seasons based on The importance of a good forecast
periodicity of a Planning Area SAP Demand Planning (DP) What it can do
Starting with SAP APO 5.0, seasons can be defined at a more Demand Planning overview
granular level: CVC or a group of CVCs Creating a forecast using DPs Statistical Models

Enhancing a forecast with key DP tools

SAP Demand Planning How to implement it


Planning and designing your DP solution

Configuring and testing your DP solution

Wrap-up

48 49

Some SAP Demand Planning Facts Common Pitfalls on SAP Demand Planning Projects
Hundreds and hundreds of companies are using it Not enough attention given to the business process
Its very mature, very stable Focus should be on improving how you do Demand Planning
SAP Demand Planning has been implemented in nearly all
SAP Demand Planning is an enabler it wont fix the problems
industries
by itself
It offers some limited industry-specific functionality
SAP Demand Planning can be used with SAP ERP, with SAP BW, Project is owned by IT, not the business users
or both Inadequate resourcing
It can also be used in a standalone environment with no other Not having enough capacity
SAP applications
f Missed deadlines, overworked resources, poor quality
But: You do NOT have to be using SAP NetWeaver BI/SAP BW to
use SAP Demand Planning Not having the right mix of skills
SAP Demand Planning comes with an embedded SAP
NetWeaver BI/SAP BW that can be used to do some basic DP
reporting (with the BEx Analyzer/Explorer)

DP projects generally take between 3-6 months, depending on


complexity, scope, etc. 50 51

Common Pitfalls on SAP Demand Planning Projects (cont.) Planning and Designing Your Demand Planning Solution
Poor InfoCube design There are many implementation options to consider
Affects system performance, synchronization with other Functional scope
systems (SAP NetWeaver BI/SAP BW), availability of needed f Which parts of SAP Demand Planning to implement
data, format of needed data, etc.
Organizational scope
Inadequate time given to understanding statistics behind SAP
f Which parts of the business to implement
Demand Planning
f Which products to include
Can lead to using wrong forecast models, coefficients, etc.
Timing

f When each part of the organization will implement it

So, how do I figure this out?


Blueprint/Design phase Developing a prototype of your
Value Assessments proposed DP solution BEFORE
the realization phase of your
Prototypes project is a great way to validate
your overall design
52 53
Planning and Designing Your Demand Planning
Solution (cont.) Evaluating SAP Demand Planning Implementation Options
Another way to compare Cost
implementation options is to The total cost of implementing the solution
(process and technology); key variables are the Cost Risk Time-to-Benefit Duration
assess each one against lapsed time and mix of external versus internal
Low High Low High Short Long Short Long
resources 1. DP Pilot, then BU
(four) key factors: Cost savings from Least amount of change Benefits realization Longer duration due to
smaller scope are offset management risk could begin sooner than staged implementation
Risk by longer timeline alternative number two
The probability that significant issues delay
project progress and/or result in additional
cost; key drivers are usually the number of Low High Low High Short Long Short Long
2. DP Pilot, then Product
concurrent tasks, interdependencies, and Line
resources Cost savings from Higher change Projected longest time to Longer duration due to
smaller scope off-set by management risk benefit staged implementation
longer timeline
Time-to-Benefit
Time required to achieve full benefit potential; is
impacted by technology, processes adherence,
data quality, and organization alignment 3. No Pilot, full DP
Low High Low High Short Long Short Long

Higher external support Higher business risk Shortest time-to-benefit Shortest duration
partially offset by Higher change Steep benefits realization Single implementation
compressed timeline management risk curve expected phase
Project Duration
The elapsed time required to implement the
solution throughout the business; key drivers
are usually the resource skill sets and mix, use
of accelerators, and business acceptance
54 55

Planning and Designing Your Demand Planning Solution 1 Your Team


Three most important things to consider (once scoping decisions Ideally, your project team should consist of representatives from
have been made): management, the business, and IT
1 Your team This ensures the proper mix of skills/experiences
Management skills
2 Your methodology and timeline
f Project sponsorship, project management
3 Your process
Business skills
f Statistical forecasting methods
f Product/brand specialists
Technical skills Communication and
knowledge transfer are
f Basis
CRITICAL. Small,
f SAP BW, SAP ERP isolated teams keep
internal knowledge and
f Existing systems expertise concentrated
to a few individuals.

56 57

2 Your Methodology and Timeline 2 Your Methodology and Timeline (cont.)


Typical methodology A typical project timeline
Phase 1 Analysis/Blueprint Phase 4 Testing
f Requirements gathering f Unit Testing Phase Task Activities Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6
Blueprint Definition Confirm business requirements
f Process definition f Integration Testing Application workshops
Integration workshops

f Process blueprinting f Training Documentation


Realization: Prototype Functional Pilot Process and role models
APO DP build
Integration design
Phase 2 Pilot Design Phase 5 Go-Live Prep/Go- Functional unit configuration
Realization: Integration System Pilot Build value-adding scenarios

f System build Live Build interfaces


Build data conversion
User & System Acceptance
Phase 6 Post Go-Live
Testing Complete unit test scripts
f System configuration Complete integration test scripts

Phase 3 Final Design Build


Support Final Prep & Go-live Integrate and Go-live
Complete stress tests
Data conversion and testing
Detailed cutover and go-live prep

f Final design build


Final end-user training
Go-live and support

f Final design configuration

58 59
3 Your Process A Typical Demand Planning Process
Remember SAP Create
Createnew
new InfoCube/Planning
InfoCube/PlanningArea
Area
Demand Planning is Create
Createnew
master
new
masterdata
InfoCube/Planning
InfoCube/PlanningArea
Area
Design/Maintenance
Design/Maintenance
master
masterdata
data Design/Maintenance
Design/Maintenance
Evaluate/Update
data Evaluate/Update
being implemented to Generate
Evaluate/Update
Planning
Evaluate/Update
PlanningArea/Planning
Area/PlanningBooks
Books
Generate
Generatenew
new
Planning
PlanningArea/Planning
Area/PlanningBooks
Books
Generatenew CVCs/prop
CVCs/propfactors Planning
PlanningBook
support a business
new
CVCs/prop
CVCs/propfactors
factors Planning
factors Book
PlanningBook
Book Design/Maintenance
Design/Maintenance
Design/Maintenance Design/Maintenance
process Load
Loadnew
new
Load
Loadnew
master
new
Data Maintenance
master
masterdata
datatoto Data Maintenance masterdata
datatoto
Properly analyzing the
planning
planningarea
area
Forecast
ForecastProfiles
Profiles
Activities planning
planningarea
area Forecast
ForecastProfiles
Profiles Activities
Design/Maintenance
Design/Maintenance Design/Maintenance
Design/Maintenance
as-is and designing the
to-be demand planning Monitoring
Monitoring
forecast
forecastaccuracy
accuracy
Creation
Creationofof
Statistical
Statisticalforecast
forecast
Monitoring
Monitoring Creation
Creationofof
forecast
forecastaccuracy Statistical
Statisticalforecast
process drives how much accuracy forecast

value youll get out of a Historical


Historicaldata
updates
data Creation
Creationofof
promotions
Historical
updates promotions
Historicaldata
data Creation
Creationofof
DP project updates
updates promotions
promotions
Release
Releaseofof Manual
Manual
Demand
DemandPlan
Plan adjustments
adjustments
Release
Releaseofof Manual
Manual
Reconciliation
Reconciliationofof
Demand
DemandPlan
Plan adjustments
adjustments
Demand
DemandPlans
Plans
Business Process
Activities Reconciliation
Reconciliationofof Business Process
Demand
DemandPlans
Plans
60 Activities 61

InfoCube/Planning Area Design/Maintenance InfoCube/Planning Area Design/Maintenance (cont.)


InfoCubes are multi-dimensional relational
DP
DPDataMart
DataMart database structures that store planning SAP Demand Planning
data for use in Demand Planning DP
DPDataMart
DataMart Planning Object Structure

Sales InfoCubes consist of: Contains plannable characteristics and


aggregates for use in liveCache
Characteristics Planning objects that
Actuals Sales
Field Sales
Actuals
Forecast
represent levels at which a forecast Field Sales Characteristics determine the levels on
Cube Forecast
which you can plan and save data
Marketing might be created Marketing
Cube
Forecast
Can be either standard characteristics
Cube f Product Brand, Region, Customer Forecast
Cube and/or ones that you have created yourself
Group in the Administrator Workbench
Key Figures Planning objects that
contain data representing a numerical
value
f Historical Orders, Statistical Forecast
Time Buckets Represent periods of
time in the InfoCube
f Months, Weeks 62 63

InfoCube/Planning Area Design/Maintenance (cont.) InfoCube/Planning Area Design/Maintenance (cont.)

SAP Demand Planning SAP Demand Planning


DP
DPDataMart
DataMart Planning Object Structure DP
DPDataMart
DataMart Planning Object Structure

DP Planning Area(s)
Sales Sales
[liveCache]
Actuals
Field Sales
Generate characteristic Actuals
Field Sales
Central structures for Demand Planning used
Forecast
Cube combinations Forecast
Cube

to store current planning data
Marketing Marketing
Forecast Forecast Specifies the following:
Cube Cube Key figures to be used
Unit of measure in which data is planned
Product Group Product Group Currency in which data is planned
100, 101, 102 100, 101, 102 Storage buckets profile that determines
Product Family Product Family buckets in which data is stored
Liquids, Gels Liquids, Gels Aggregate levels on which data can be
Customer Group Customer Group stored in addition to the lowest level
Retail, Internet Retail, Internet
f To enhance performance
Region Region
South, North South, North Settings for how each key figure is
disaggregated, aggregated, and saved
Sales Organization Sales Organization
3000, 3005 3000, 3005
64 65
InfoCube/Planning Area Design/Maintenance (cont.) InfoCube/Planning Area Design/Maintenance (cont.)

SAP Demand Planning SAP Demand Planning


DP
DPDataMart
DataMart Planning Object Structure DP
DPDataMart
DataMart Planning Object Structure

DP Planning Area(s) DP Planning Area(s)


Sales Sales
Actuals
[liveCache] Actuals
[liveCache]
Field Sales Field Sales
Forecast DP
DP Planning
Planning Book(s)
Book(s) Forecast DP
DP Planning
Planning Book(s)
Book(s)
Cube Cube
Marketing Very configurable tabular and Marketing Field Sales View PS S&OP View
Forecast Forecast Historical Orders Historical Orders
Cube graphical presentations of forecast Cube Historical Shipments Historical Shipments
data Sales Final Forecast
KAF LAG 1
Historical Returns

Each planning book can have multiple KAF LAG 2


KAF LAG 3
data views
Data views present planning book data Product Supply View Marketing View
Historical Orders
in different ways Historical Orders
Historical Shipments Historical Shipments
Financial Forecast
Time periods Marketing Final Forecast
LE LAG 1
Specific key figures LE LAG 2
LE LAG 3

66 67

InfoCube/Planning Area Design/Maintenance (cont.) InfoCube/Planning Area Design/Maintenance Tips


Important things to consider Fixing key figures
At what levels do I want to forecast? To be able to fix values, key figures must be configured to be

f Product group? Customer? fixable when created as InfoObjects


f Characteristics vs. navigational attributes f You must also specify another key figure to which these fixed

What time buckets do I want to forecast in?


values are stored
f Months, weeks, quarters?
Aggregates help improve performance
By fixing/saving data at a specific level of aggregation
What data do I need to support the process?
f The system then reads only the aggregation level
f Historical shipments, marketing forecast
Note: It is recommended that any aggregates you create in SAP
Where will this data come from?
Demand Planning also be created in any synchronized SAP
How large must the server be to support this process?
NetWeaver BI/SAP BW system
Think hard about how key figures should aggregate and
disaggregate data (statistical forecast vs. unit price)
68 69

InfoObject Configuration Key Figure Configuration

70 71
InfoCube/Planning Area Design/Maintenance Tips Navigation Attribute Configuration
Using Navigational Attributes
Try to boost performance by acting as a substitute
characteristic
f You cant plan at the attribute level, but you can select
and navigate with them
f Example:

For characteristic Customer you might assign attributes


of Sales Rep and Priority
You then specify master data for these, like John Smith
or Bob Jones
f Attributes also help speed up the realignment process

72 73

InfoCube/Planning Area Design/Maintenance Tips A Typical Demand Planning Process


When using navigational attributes, however: Create InfoCube/Planning
InfoCube/PlanningArea
Createnew
new Area
master
masterdata Design/Maintenance
BE CAREFUL! data Design/Maintenance
Evaluate/Update
Evaluate/Update
Generate Planning
PlanningArea/Planning
Area/PlanningBooks
Generatenew
f They can actually adversely affect performance during data new Books
CVCs/prop
CVCs/propfactors
factors Planning
PlanningBook
Book
selection and navigation in interactive planning Load
Design/Maintenance
Design/Maintenance
Loadnew
new
Data Maintenance
Attributes read a large number of tables from the master
masterdata
datatoto
planning
planningarea
area Forecast
ForecastProfiles
Profiles Activities
associated InfoObject master data Design/Maintenance
Design/Maintenance

This can increase processing time


Monitoring
Monitoring Creation
Creationofof
My advice: Find the right balance forecast
forecastaccuracy
accuracy Statistical
Statisticalforecast
forecast

Dont initialize planning areas that arent needed Historical


Historicaldata
data Creation
Creationofof
updates promotions
Once a planning area is initialized, it consumes liveCache updates promotions

memory
Release
Releaseofofdemand
demand Manual
Manual
plan
plan Adjustments
Adjustments

Reconciliation
Reconciliationofof Business Process
demand
demandplans
plans
74 Activities 75

Planning Book Design/Maintenance Planning Book Design/Maintenance (cont.)


Planning books are very configurable interfaces to your DP Header
planning data Shuffler
They act as the main tool for viewing and modifying plans in
SAP Demand Planning
They are usually designed from scratch for each project

f Although there are many SAP-delivered ones Standard


Selections
Can show any key figure from a planning area sliced and diced
(using any characteristics in the associated planning object
structure)
SAP APO supports multiple books per planning area, with Grid
Switch to other
multiple views per book book/views

Macros
76
Planning Book Design/Maintenance (cont.) Planning Book Design/Maintenance Tips

Important things to consider SAP provides a wizard to guide you step-by-step through the
Which organizational groups need planning books? process of creating planning books and data views
f Marketing, sales, etc. A good way to start is to copy a standard SAP planning book and
modify it to meet your needs
Do these groups need to share data, or will they generate
their own? You can edit the layout and format of a data view directly from DP
Interactive Planning
f Consensus forecasting process
Click the Design icon located on the planning table toolbar
Are any special calculations needed to support the forecasting
process? (macros) To help improve performance
Keep the number of key figures in each planning book/data
view to a minimum
Try not to use Default macros these automatically
execute whenever data is changed

78 79

Planning Book Wizard A Typical Demand Planning Process

Create
Createnew
new InfoCube/Planning
InfoCube/PlanningArea
Area
master
masterdata
data Design/Maintenance
Design/Maintenance
Evaluate/Update
Evaluate/Update
Generate Planning
PlanningArea/Planning
Area/PlanningBooks
Generatenew
new Books
CVCs/Prop
CVCs/Propfactors
factors Planning
PlanningBook
Book
Design/Maintenance
Design/Maintenance
Load
Loadnew
new
master
masterdata
datatoto
Data Maintenance
Planning
PlanningArea
Area Forecast
ForecastProfiles
Profiles Activities
Design/Maintenance
Design/Maintenance

Monitoring
Monitoring Creation
Creationofof
forecast
forecastaccuracy
accuracy Statistical
Statisticalforecast
forecast

Historical
Historicaldata
data Creation
Creationofof
updates
updates promotions
promotions

Release
ReleaseofofDemand
Demand Manual
Manual
Plan
Plan Adjustments
Adjustments

Reconciliation
Reconciliationofof Business Process
Demand
DemandPlans
Plans
80 Activities 81

Creation of Statistical Forecast A Typical Demand Planning Process


Important things to consider Create InfoCube/Planning
InfoCube/PlanningArea
Createnew
new Area
master
masterdata Design/Maintenance
How often do the statistical models need to run? data Design/Maintenance
Evaluate/Update
Evaluate/Update
Generate Planning
PlanningArea/Planning
Area/PlanningBooks
Generatenew
Should they be run interactively or in batch? new Books
CVCs/Prop
CVCs/Propfactors
factors Planning
PlanningBook
Book
Design/Maintenance
At what level is the forecast going to be run?
Design/Maintenance
Load
Loadnew
new
master
masterdata
datatoto
Data Maintenance
Tips Planning
PlanningArea
Area Forecast
ForecastProfiles
Profiles Activities
Design/Maintenance
If you plan on executing your forecast by using a batch job, Design/Maintenance

be mindful of the sequence you run it in Monitoring


Monitoring Creation
Creationofof
forecast
forecastaccuracy Statistical
Statisticalforecast
f Youll probably have multiple jobs that have to be run
accuracy forecast

with it Historical
Historicaldata
data Creation
Creationofof
updates promotions
You can compare the results from different forecast runs updates promotions

directly through the SAP Demand Planning desktop


Release
ReleaseofofDemand
Demand Manual
Manual
Plan
Plan adjustments
adjustments

Reconciliation
Reconciliationofof Business Process
Demand
DemandPlans
Plans
82 Activities 83
Release of Demand Plan Release of Demand Plan (cont.)

Important things to consider Legacy integration


Where will the Demand Plan be sent? SAP APO Demand Planning is tightly integrated with:
f SNP, SAP ERP Demand Management, Legacy systems f SNP via liveCache (TimeSeries liveCache Order liveCache)
How often should forecasts be released? f SAP ERP via CIF Interface
Tips The SAP APO Demand Planning can also be integrated with a
To pass forecasts to SAP ERP, the Core Interface (CIF) must legacy system via BAPI BAPI_PBSRVAPS_GETDETAIL2
be configured The BAPI enables:
f As all material/location master data objects must exist in f Extraction of data from TimeSeries liveCache to a
SAP APO for the standard release transactions to work file/interface
SAP recommends that you use a separate data view for the
f Aggregation on weekly/monthly basis of forecasts results
transfer process
f This data view should contain only the key figure containing
the forecast data to be transferred, and a forecast horizon
only (no history)
84 85

A Typical Demand Planning Process Historical Data Updates


Planned Orders
Create
Createnew
new InfoCube/Planning
InfoCube/PlanningArea
Area SAP ERP
Design/ (Production, Transport)
master
masterdata
data Design/Maintenance
Maintenance
Evaluate/Update
Evaluate/Update
Generate
Generatenew
new
Planning
PlanningArea/Planning
Area/PlanningBooks
Books SAP APO
CVCs/Prop
CVCs/Propfactors
factors Planning
PlanningBook
Book (part of SAP SCM)
Design/Maintenance
Design/Maintenance
Load
Loadnew
new SNP/PP/DS
master
masterdata
datatoto
Data Maintenance
Planning
PlanningArea
Area Forecast
ForecastProfiles
Profiles Activities
Design/Maintenance
Design/Maintenance

SAP BW/BI
Monitoring
Monitoring Creation
Creationofof
forecast
forecastaccuracy
accuracy Statistical
Statisticalforecast
forecast
DP

Historical
Historicaldata
data Creation
Creationofof
updates
updates promotions
promotions
Historical Data
(Shipments, Orders)
Release
ReleaseofofDemand
Demand Manual
Manual
Plan
Plan Adjustments
Adjustments

Reconciliation
Reconciliationofof Business Process Non-SAP
Demand
DemandPlans
Plans
Activities 86 87

Historical Data Updates (cont.) Historical Data Updates (cont.)

Important things to consider Improving Demand Forecast


What is Historical Data? Sales Order History (SOH) vs. Point of Sale (POS)

f Actual ship date? Requested ship date? Customer requested f Most DP implementations use classic Sales Order History
date? Order entry date? f As companies delve into CPFR (Collaborative Planning,
At what level will historical data be kept? Forecasting, and Replenishment) implementations,
How often should SAP Demand Planning be updated? customers/suppliers begin to share genuine demand
information POS
How are cross-period events handled?
f POS eliminates Bullwhip Effect from Sales Order History and
Tips
accounts for more accurate demand forecast
CLEARLY define what constitutes historical data, and make
f SAP APO DP allows seamless integration of POS via EDI852
sure all groups (especially BI) understand this definition
transaction (IDoc: PROACT01)
SAP Demand Planning needs, in most cases, at least two
years of historical data for statistical models to produce high
quality results!
88 89
A Typical Demand Planning Process Monitoring Forecast Accuracy

Create InfoCube/Planning
InfoCube/PlanningArea
You monitor forecast accuracy
Createnew
new Area
master
masterdata Design/Maintenance
data Design/Maintenance
Evaluate/Update To find out whether you are using the right forecast models
Evaluate/Update
Generate Planning
PlanningArea/Planning
Area/PlanningBooks
Generatenew
To identify what adjustments are needed to forecast models
new Books
CVCs/Prop
CVCs/Propfactors
factors Planning
PlanningBook
Book
Design/Maintenance
To project expected deviation from the planned forecast
Design/Maintenance
Load
Loadnew
new
master
masterdata
datatoto
Data Maintenance
Planning
PlanningArea
Area Forecast
ForecastProfiles
Profiles Activities Important things to consider
Design/Maintenance
Design/Maintenance
Whats your definition of Forecast Accuracy?

Monitoring
Monitoring Creation
Creationofof f Example: FA = 1 ([Actual Forecast]/Actual)
forecast
forecastaccuracy
accuracy Statistical
Statisticalforecast
forecast
How will you monitor Forecast Accuracy?
Historical
Historicaldata
data Creation
Creationofof
updates
updates promotions
promotions

Release
ReleaseofofDemand
Demand Manual
Manual
Plan
Plan Adjustments
Adjustments

Reconciliation
Reconciliationofof Business Process
Demand
DemandPlans
Plans
Activities 90 91

Four DP Methods with Which to Monitor Forecast Accuracy 1 Univariate Forecast Error Measurements
1 Univariate forecast error measurements Univariate measures of error available in SAP Demand Planning
2 Multiple Linear Regression model measures of fit
3 Planned/actual comparison using macros
4 Use an SAP NetWeaver BI/SAP BW front end for forecast MAD Mean Absolute Deviation
accuracy reporting
Total Error Total Forecast Error
MAPE Mean Absolute Percentage Error
MSE Mean Square Error
RMSE Root of the Mean Square Error
MPE Mean Percentage Error Bias

92 93

2 Multiple Linear Regression Model Measures of Fit 3 Planned/Actual Comparison Using Macros
SAP Demand Planning offers you many ways to measure how well Macro automatically calculates forecast error, then triggers an
an MLR model fits the available data alert if that error exceeds preset levels
R-square Information alert if 10% or less

Adjusted R-square Warning alert if between 10% and 20%

Durbin-h Error alert if greater than 20%

Durbin-Watson

T-test

Mean elasticity

Information
Warning
94 Error 95
4 Use an SAP NetWeaver BI/SAP BW Front End for
Monitoring Forecast Accuracy Forecast Accuracy Reporting
Forecast Fit vs. Forecast Accuracy You can use the SAP BEx Analyzer/Explorer to extract data
Forecast Fit describes the relative difference between actual directly from SAP Demand Planning identical to an SAP
historical data and a hypothetical forecast generated by system NetWeaver BI/SAP BW report
Forecast Accuracy describes the relative difference between
actual historical data and actual forecast previously generated
by the system
SAP APO Demand Planning is pre-built with standard Forecast
Fit algorithms. Therefore, a demand planner may select forecast
fit errors he may monitor during each statistical forecast
generation
Forecast Accuracy algorithms can be either designed using
SAP APO macros or via SAP BI Reporting functionality

96 97

Monitoring Forecast Accuracy: Some Tips Monitoring Forecast Accuracy: Some Tips (cont.)
Establish and communicate your organizations definition of Dedicate plenty of time/resources to figuring out which statistical
forecast accuracy models are the most appropriate to use
Set up effective ways of monitoring forecast accuracy It is not appropriate to use the same model for all items

This is key to understanding how to adjust/change the A model should not be arbitrarily selected based on
forecast process presumptions alone
Leverage DP data structures Model parameters should be tested and continually reviewed

They make it easy to analyze forecast accuracy at a variety of Data should be analyzed for patterns or the absence thereof
different levels: f Those closest to the business should be tapped for
f Specific product brands domain knowledge
f Specific customers

98 99

Monitoring Forecast Accuracy: Some Tips (cont.) Error Metrics MAPE vs. MPE
Absolute
If you use the rolling error analysis format: Forecast Actual Error Absolute Error Percent Error
You must include key figures to which the past period data can Product 1 3 1 -2 2 200%
be written Product 2 0 50 50 50 100%

You can report accuracy data directly out of SAP Demand Product 3 25 75 50 50 67%

Planning Product 4 75 74 -1 1 1%
Product 5 100 75 -25 25 33%
Prerequisites for ad hoc reporting out of a DP InfoCube:
TOTAL 203 275 72 128
f A planning area in SAP APO AVERAGE 40.6 55 14.4 25.6 80%
f An extraction structure for the planning area
f An InfoSource Without
With Product 1 Product 1
f A standard or remote Cube that reflects liveCache data Mean Percent Error (MPE)
80% 50%
Using the standard error metrics generated by SAP APO is a great =avg(absolute percentage error)
way to judge forecast accuracy
MAPE is generally regarded as the best metric to use Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)
47% 46%
=sum(absolute errors)/sum(actuals)
100 101
Error Metrics Managing Planning Exceptions with Alerts
Implications Notify users of exception situations occurring in the demand
MPE is easily skewed by a single entry planning process
f Product 1 drives much of the error in the previous example An exception can be:
MAPE doesnt suffer from this, and is much more balanced, and Changes in bias, new trends, unexpected demands

therefore offers a more practical metric for monitoring forecast Orders exceed forecast
error/accuracy Orders fall short of forecast, which may lead to excess
inventory
Forecast accuracy is below a specified threshold
You can enhance the usefulness of MAPE by adding
weighting factors (standard cost, list price) to the calculation. Alerts can be filtered and prioritized based on severity through
This results in higher-value items having a greater influence configuration
on the overall error than lower-value ones, and resolves one
of the drawbacks of using MAPE the assumption that the
absolute error of each item is equal.

102 103

What Well Cover Realization/Configuration


The importance of a good forecast This stage is critical for successful knowledge transfer!
SAP Demand Planning (DP) What it can do Standard approach is DEV, QA, PRODUCTION

Demand Planning overview Common issues


Creating a forecast using DPs Statistical Models Overly complex data model

Enhancing a forecast with key DP tools f Too many characteristics, key figures, planning books,

SAP Demand Planning How to implement it macros doing complicated calculations, etc.
Planning and designing your DP solution f My advice Keep your initial model simple, because you can

Configuring and testing your DP solution


always go back later and add stuff
Dont assume youre configuring a static model
Wrap-up
f Your business is dynamic, and so your DP environment must
be as well
Realignment

104 105

System Sizing Is CRITICAL! SAP QuickSizer and liveCache


Things that affect performance
Amount of historical data

f Dont keep 5+ years of data if you dont need it

Number of materials, characteristics, key figures, versions, etc.

f Forecast for key materials at just a few levels

Number of macros and what they do

f Be VERY careful here; macros are system hogs

f Avoid Default macros

Levels of forecasting

f Forecast at a high level and have system disaggregate

Time buckets

f Forecast in week/month buckets, not days liveCache size = function (combinations, time buckets, versions)
This is multiplicative, non-linear, and difficult to predict!
106 107
SAP QuickSizer and liveCache (cont.) SAP QuickSizer and liveCache (cont.)

Great new feature introduced in SAP SCM 5.0:


Ability to create time series objects not only
for specific key figures in a planning area,
but over specific time horizons. This can
Note that figures of 16-64gb are to greatly reduce the overall amount of
be expected in production systems memory needed for liveCache.
Consider W2003 64-bit NT or Unix
for performance
Ideally, multi-way CPUs (at least
4-way min.)

108 109

SAP QuickSizer and liveCache (cont.) Testing Your SAP Demand Planning Implementation
Testing SAP Demand Planning usually consists of:
Design Unit test, System test, Data Migration test

Disaster Recovery test, Stress tests

Final Integration test, User Acceptance test

Key: Analyze which statistical methods are appropriate


Forecast errors

110 f MAD, MAPE, etc.

Ex-post forecast

f A forecast that is run in past periods for which actual


demand history is also available

Dont wait until the end to test with realistic data volumes!

111

Development and Stress Test Considerations Go-Live


Training
Train-the-Trainer approach
SAP APO SAP APO SAP APO SAP APO
Dev* QAS* PRD liveCache Instructor should be from client

Support
Who can users call for help?
CIF CIF CIF
f Competency Center model

f Consulting support
SAP ERP SAP ERP SAP ERP Raging go-live party
Dev QAS Copy

One of the more common problems in a DP project is user acceptance.


SAP ERP These problems usually manifest themselves most prominently during
PRD the go-live phase.
To help alleviate this, provide users with some temporary means of
* Internal liveCache acceptable but must be 64-bit machine feeling comfortable with the system (e.g., Override key figure).
for SAP APO 4.1 and later releases (UNIX or Windows 2003 64-bit) 112 113
Some DP Project Horror Stories What Well Cover
Historical data Whats an Order? The importance of a good forecast
Develop clear definitions early in the process SAP Demand Planning (DP) What it can do
User acceptance I aint usin that thing! Demand Planning overview

Get users involved early Creating a forecast using DPs Statistical Models

Develop a prototype Enhancing a forecast with key DP tools

Performance SAP Demand Planning How to implement it


Ive executed the forecast model see you on Monday Planning and designing your DP solution

f Figure out data scale early how many materials, etc. Configuring and testing your DP solution

f Use QuickSizer, SAP, Consulting Partners Wrap-up


f Perform multiple sizing checks

Forecast Models Just use the Constant model


Educate users on statistics

114 115

Resources Resources (cont.)


Web links Great SAP APO Discussion Group
International Institute of Forecasting http://supplychain.ittoolbox.com/related-groups/SAP/technical-
f www.forecasters.org functional/sap-apo
SAP SCM documentation SCM Expert
f http://help.sap.com SAP Business Suite SAP Supply Hayrettin Cil and Mehmet Nizamoglu, 23 Ways to Squeeze
Chain Management) Better Performance from APO DP Processing and Reporting
The Institute for Forecasting Education (SCM Expert, August/September, 2004).
f www.forecastingeducation.com
Books
John E. Hanke and Arthur G. Reitsch, Business Forecasting
(Prentice Hall, 1995).
Wolfgang Eddigehausen, The SAP APO Knowledge Book
Supply and Demand Planning (Wolfgang Eddigehausen, 2002).
f ISBN 0-9581791-0-7

116 117

7 Key Points to Take Home 7 Key Points to Take Home (cont.)


SAP Demand Planning offers strong functionality in the following SAP Demand Planning offers several powerful forecasting tools
areas: Univariate/time series models where constant, trend, or
Sound forecasting methods (Basic and Advanced) seasonal patterns exist
Collaborative forecasting methods Causal models to investigate relationships between variables

Life cycle and promotion planning Composite models combine forecasts to reduce error

Excellent way of monitoring accuracy Causal forecasting can be very effective when used in
Quick reporting using SAP Business Explorer (SAP BEx conjunction with Time Series forecasting
Analyzer) But understand what it actually does, and that its more

Superior integration with other modules of SAP APO demanding to set up and maintain
SAP Demand Planning is extremely flexible so proper planning f DP supports a business process getting the process right

is the key to a successful DP environment! is therefore critical

118 119
7 Key Points to Take Home (cont.) Your Turn!
Keep your design simple, but be careful
Detail may grow exponentially as you go DP SNP PP/DS

If you build a data monster, you will have to maintain


the monster
Develop clear definitions of your data and mappings of where
theyre coming from/going to
Historical data to the DP team may mean something different
than to the SAP BW team
Assembling the right team and the right mix of business and
technical skills can make or break your SAP APO project
How to contact me:
Alistair Thornton alithornton@deloitte.com
Rick Anderson franderson@deloitte.com
120 121

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