Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Alistair Thornton
Deloitte Consulting
2009 Wellesley Information Services. All rights reserved.
0
1.
Demand
&
Functional
Aggregation
S&OP Planning
of Inputs Analysis
Cycle
Understand what SAP Demand Planning Enhancing a forecast with key DP tools
can do to support your forecasting SAP Demand Planning How to implement it
process
Planning and designing your DP solution
Wrap-up
Get some best practices for
implementing SAP APO in your
organization
2 3
Modern Enterprises Have Unique Forecasting Challenges But There Are Compelling Reasons to Improve
Satisfy all customer requests (right product, right quantity, right In a recent article, Gartner says that using a robust forecasting
time) without carrying excess inventory process:
Create and analyze forecast data at different levels Improves forecast accuracy by 54%
Sales might want to create a forecast for customers Increases inventory turns by 33%
Operations might want to create a forecast for a plant Reduces inventory safety stock by 25%
Marketing might want to create a forecast for product brands Increases profit margins by reducing discounts
Enable communication across business units within an In another article, AMR Research comes to similar conclusions:
organization Organizations can expect a 10-25% improvement in forecast
Forecasts should not be produced in isolated silos accuracy through the implementation of better forecasting tools
Incorporate forecast data from supply chain partners into the and processes
demand planning process
Share data with customers, suppliers, contractors, etc.
4 5
The Value Proposition Reduced Forecast Error Some Organizations Still Dont Get It
Reducing forecast error has a positive financial impact that Despite this potential benefit, many demand planning processes
propagates throughout the entire supply chain suffer from these symptoms
Manufacturing Demand Planning is isolated, and not well integrated with other
Finance Production schedule
Customer Service Inventory carrying cost planning and execution processes
disruptions through rush
Fill rates orders
Percentage of orders Increased outsourcing Planning and execution processes do not explicitly account for
shipped complete
Back orders leading to
Increased overtime expense
forecast errors
customer service issues
On-time shipment Warehousing The demand planning system is reactive, due to limited
Forecast Excess space/storage cost
performance
Customer complaints Error Inconsistent shipping/
information and visibility of future demand
Input receiving volumes
Multiple systems used for forecasting, planning, and execution
and are not integrated
Inventory Management Transportation
Supply not aligned with Inconsistent shipment
demand volumes and sizes
Low inventory turns Sales and Marketing Heavy use of premium/
High obsolescence Lost sales opportunities expensive space/storage cost
Tarnished brand image and
questionable customer
loyalty 6 7
8 9
SAP Demand Planning Is Part of SAP SCM 2007 SAP Demand Planning The 50,000 Foot View
Planned Orders
DP SNP PP/DS gATP TP/VS SAP ERP
(Production, Transport)
SAP APO
Historical Data
(Shipments, Orders)
SAP SCM
Non-SAP
10 11
SAP Demand Planning The 5,000 Foot View SAP Demand Planning Requirements and Misconceptions
Demand REQUIREMENTS MISCONCEPTIONS
MISCONCEPTIONS
DemandPlanning
PlanningTools:
Tools: REQUIREMENTS
Collaborative
CollaborativeForecasting
Forecasting I Ineed
needBW
BWininorder
ordertotouse
useDP
DP
Consensus-based
Good,
Good,clean
cleandata
data
Consensus-basedForecasting
Forecasting I Ineed
needSAP
SAPERP
ERPininorder
ordertotouse
useDP
DP
Promotional
PromotionalPlanning
Planning DEV,
DEV,QA,
QA,and
andPROD
PRODservers
servers I Ineed
needtotoimplement
implementthe
theother
otherSAP
SAPAPO
APO
Lifecycle
LifecycleManagement
Management
Input Data Due
Duetotouse
useofofliveCache,
liveCache,servers
servers modules
modulesininorder
ordertotouse
useDP
DP
Advanced
AdvancedMacros
Macros
Accuracy Reporting
Accuracy Reporting 9 Collaborative must
musthave
haveadequate
adequatememory
memory(more
(more I Ican
canonly
onlyuse
useDP
DPtotocreate
createaaquantity-
quantity-
on based
basedforecast
Forecasts onthis
thislater)
later) forecast
Anticipation of I Icant
cantdo
doany
anyreporting
reportingout
outofofDP
DP
Demand Planning Data Mart
9 History Orders/ IfIfusing
usingwith
withSAP
SAPERP
ERPor orSNP/PP/DS,
SNP/PP/DS,
Future Demand Shipments, etc. integration
integrationmodels
modelsmust
mustbebe
Point of Sale generated
generatedininSAPSAPERP
ERPand
andall
allneeded
9
(POS) Data needed
master
masterdata
datamust
mustbebetransported
transportedtoto
9 Nielsen/Information
SAP
SAPAPOAPO
Resources, Inc.
Statistical Methods: IfIfusing
(IRI) Data usingwith
withSAP
SAPNetWeaver
NetWeaverBI, BI,the
the
Multi-Model Approach SAP
Average Models
9 Flat File SAPNetWeaver
NetWeaverBI BIsystem
systemmust
mustbe be
Seasonal
created
createdas asaasource
sourcesystem
systemininSAP
SAP
Causal Factors APO
APO(same
(sameforforSAP
SAPERP)
ERP)
Trend, Seasonal Trend
Composite Models
Pick Best
12 13
Multiple Levels of Forecasting (Top Down, Creating a forecast using DPs Statistical Models
Bottom Up, Middle Out)
Life Cycle Planning Phase Out | Configuring and testing your DP solution
Like Profiles
Wrap-up
|
Basic Promotions |
Promotion Planning
Cannibalization |
14 15
Creating a Forecast Using DPs Statistical Models 1 Univariate/Time Series Forecasting Models
1 Univariate/Time Series models Univariate forecasting is better known as time series
2 Multivariate/Causal analysis forecasting
3 Composite models A time series consists of data collected, recorded, or observed
over successive increments of time
Univariate models detect and project the following statistical
patterns
Constant
Trend
Seasonal
16 17
1 Univariate/Time Series Forecasting Models (cont.) 1 Univariate/Time Series Forecasting Models (cont.)
Univariate models use only one independent and one dependent The purpose is to model the patterns of past demands in order to
variable project them into the future
The independent variable is time (day, week, month, etc.) Good in very short-term horizon
The dependent variable is something like sales or shipments Requires past, internal data to forecast the future
Time series are analyzed to discover past patterns of variability Most cost effective and easily systematized
that can be used to forecast future values Forecaster should have an understanding of statistics
The assumption is that past patterns will continue in the future
1 Univariate/Time Series Models: Types of Approaches 1 Selecting the Right Univariate/Time Series Model
Types of time series approaches in SAP Demand Planning General criteria for time series model selection
Constant
f Varies very little from a stable mean value Pattern of Data Model to Select
Trend
No Trend, No Seasonality Moving Average
f Falls or rises constantly over a long period of time with only
occasional deviations Exponential Smoothing
Seasonal Trend, No Seasonality Holts Model
f Periodically recurring peaks and troughs differ significantly Trend and Seasonality Winters Model
from a stable mean value
No Knowledge of Patterns in Auto Model Selection 1
Seasonal trend
Historical Data Auto Model Selection 2
f Periodically recurring peaks and troughs, but with a
continual increase or decrease in the mean value With Sporadic/Intermittent Crostons Model
Intermittent
Demand
f Demand is sporadic 20 21
22 23
1 Univariate/Time Series Forecasting Models:
Disadvantages 2 Multivariate/Causal Forecasting Models
Require a large amount of historical data Try to mathematically quantify the relationship between a
Adjust slowly to changes in sales dependant variable and one or more independent variables (e.g.,
This can cause significant forecast error if large fluctuations
batteries and hurricanes)
exist in current data Data requirements
Not well suited for forecasts with long-term horizons Actuals for all variables
Constant Coefficients
Yi = o + 1X1 + 2X2... + n Xn
Sales Causal
24 History Factor 25
N/A
$1,500
$1,000
$800
or are new products
Good for products that are inherently seasonal, have Feb. Mar. April May June July Aug. Sept.
long lead times, are promotion-driven, or are Planned
Actual
competitor-influenced Advertising Advertising
Budget Budget
26 27
It allows you to incorporate seemingly unrelated data into your Can be time-consuming to develop and maintain
Demand Plan Require strong understanding of statistics
Require larger data storage than time series models
MORE INPUTS = BETTER FORECAST!
28 29
3 Composite Forecast Models 3 Composite Forecast Models (cont.)
Combine forecasts from different statistical models Composite forecasting can be carried out in two ways:
Time series, causal, judgmental Standard
Can combine forecasts by: f Carry out forecasts with specified profiles and then total the
Averaging the forecasts giving each one equal or different results, taking the weighting factors/profiles into account
weights Automatic selection
Varying the weightings assigned to each forecast over time f You can specify that the system automatically selects the
best profile based on one measure of error
30 31
32 33
Make sure that the data you want to use in causal analysis is not
only readily available, but of sound quality
34 35
What Well Cover Forecasting and Simulating Demand: Four Key Tools
The importance of a good forecast 1 Consensus-based forecasting
SAP Demand Planning (DP) What it can do 2 Collaborative forecasting
Demand Planning overview 3 Promotions planning
Creating a forecast using DPs Statistical Models 4 Life cycle planning
Enhancing a forecast with key DP tools
Wrap-up
36 37
38 39
SAP
SAP Demand
Demand
Planning
Planning Create
Insert forecast
2 statistical
Internet 1 forecast
40 Source: SAP 41
2 Collaborative Forecasting 3 Promotions Planning
Tips Lets you create, monitor, and include promotional activities into
Agree on the process your demand planning process
f Define role of each partner Promotional activities can be one-time events or repeated
42 43
44 45
Actuals
Product A Product B
46 47
5 Seasonal Planning What Well Cover
Prior to SAP APO 5.0, the system defined seasons based on The importance of a good forecast
periodicity of a Planning Area SAP Demand Planning (DP) What it can do
Starting with SAP APO 5.0, seasons can be defined at a more Demand Planning overview
granular level: CVC or a group of CVCs Creating a forecast using DPs Statistical Models
Wrap-up
48 49
Some SAP Demand Planning Facts Common Pitfalls on SAP Demand Planning Projects
Hundreds and hundreds of companies are using it Not enough attention given to the business process
Its very mature, very stable Focus should be on improving how you do Demand Planning
SAP Demand Planning has been implemented in nearly all
SAP Demand Planning is an enabler it wont fix the problems
industries
by itself
It offers some limited industry-specific functionality
SAP Demand Planning can be used with SAP ERP, with SAP BW, Project is owned by IT, not the business users
or both Inadequate resourcing
It can also be used in a standalone environment with no other Not having enough capacity
SAP applications
f Missed deadlines, overworked resources, poor quality
But: You do NOT have to be using SAP NetWeaver BI/SAP BW to
use SAP Demand Planning Not having the right mix of skills
SAP Demand Planning comes with an embedded SAP
NetWeaver BI/SAP BW that can be used to do some basic DP
reporting (with the BEx Analyzer/Explorer)
Common Pitfalls on SAP Demand Planning Projects (cont.) Planning and Designing Your Demand Planning Solution
Poor InfoCube design There are many implementation options to consider
Affects system performance, synchronization with other Functional scope
systems (SAP NetWeaver BI/SAP BW), availability of needed f Which parts of SAP Demand Planning to implement
data, format of needed data, etc.
Organizational scope
Inadequate time given to understanding statistics behind SAP
f Which parts of the business to implement
Demand Planning
f Which products to include
Can lead to using wrong forecast models, coefficients, etc.
Timing
Higher external support Higher business risk Shortest time-to-benefit Shortest duration
partially offset by Higher change Steep benefits realization Single implementation
compressed timeline management risk curve expected phase
Project Duration
The elapsed time required to implement the
solution throughout the business; key drivers
are usually the resource skill sets and mix, use
of accelerators, and business acceptance
54 55
56 57
58 59
3 Your Process A Typical Demand Planning Process
Remember SAP Create
Createnew
new InfoCube/Planning
InfoCube/PlanningArea
Area
Demand Planning is Create
Createnew
master
new
masterdata
InfoCube/Planning
InfoCube/PlanningArea
Area
Design/Maintenance
Design/Maintenance
master
masterdata
data Design/Maintenance
Design/Maintenance
Evaluate/Update
data Evaluate/Update
being implemented to Generate
Evaluate/Update
Planning
Evaluate/Update
PlanningArea/Planning
Area/PlanningBooks
Books
Generate
Generatenew
new
Planning
PlanningArea/Planning
Area/PlanningBooks
Books
Generatenew CVCs/prop
CVCs/propfactors Planning
PlanningBook
support a business
new
CVCs/prop
CVCs/propfactors
factors Planning
factors Book
PlanningBook
Book Design/Maintenance
Design/Maintenance
Design/Maintenance Design/Maintenance
process Load
Loadnew
new
Load
Loadnew
master
new
Data Maintenance
master
masterdata
datatoto Data Maintenance masterdata
datatoto
Properly analyzing the
planning
planningarea
area
Forecast
ForecastProfiles
Profiles
Activities planning
planningarea
area Forecast
ForecastProfiles
Profiles Activities
Design/Maintenance
Design/Maintenance Design/Maintenance
Design/Maintenance
as-is and designing the
to-be demand planning Monitoring
Monitoring
forecast
forecastaccuracy
accuracy
Creation
Creationofof
Statistical
Statisticalforecast
forecast
Monitoring
Monitoring Creation
Creationofof
forecast
forecastaccuracy Statistical
Statisticalforecast
process drives how much accuracy forecast
DP Planning Area(s)
Sales Sales
[liveCache]
Actuals
Field Sales
Generate characteristic Actuals
Field Sales
Central structures for Demand Planning used
Forecast
Cube combinations Forecast
Cube
to store current planning data
Marketing Marketing
Forecast Forecast Specifies the following:
Cube Cube Key figures to be used
Unit of measure in which data is planned
Product Group Product Group Currency in which data is planned
100, 101, 102 100, 101, 102 Storage buckets profile that determines
Product Family Product Family buckets in which data is stored
Liquids, Gels Liquids, Gels Aggregate levels on which data can be
Customer Group Customer Group stored in addition to the lowest level
Retail, Internet Retail, Internet
f To enhance performance
Region Region
South, North South, North Settings for how each key figure is
disaggregated, aggregated, and saved
Sales Organization Sales Organization
3000, 3005 3000, 3005
64 65
InfoCube/Planning Area Design/Maintenance (cont.) InfoCube/Planning Area Design/Maintenance (cont.)
66 67
70 71
InfoCube/Planning Area Design/Maintenance Tips Navigation Attribute Configuration
Using Navigational Attributes
Try to boost performance by acting as a substitute
characteristic
f You cant plan at the attribute level, but you can select
and navigate with them
f Example:
72 73
memory
Release
Releaseofofdemand
demand Manual
Manual
plan
plan Adjustments
Adjustments
Reconciliation
Reconciliationofof Business Process
demand
demandplans
plans
74 Activities 75
Macros
76
Planning Book Design/Maintenance (cont.) Planning Book Design/Maintenance Tips
Important things to consider SAP provides a wizard to guide you step-by-step through the
Which organizational groups need planning books? process of creating planning books and data views
f Marketing, sales, etc. A good way to start is to copy a standard SAP planning book and
modify it to meet your needs
Do these groups need to share data, or will they generate
their own? You can edit the layout and format of a data view directly from DP
Interactive Planning
f Consensus forecasting process
Click the Design icon located on the planning table toolbar
Are any special calculations needed to support the forecasting
process? (macros) To help improve performance
Keep the number of key figures in each planning book/data
view to a minimum
Try not to use Default macros these automatically
execute whenever data is changed
78 79
Create
Createnew
new InfoCube/Planning
InfoCube/PlanningArea
Area
master
masterdata
data Design/Maintenance
Design/Maintenance
Evaluate/Update
Evaluate/Update
Generate Planning
PlanningArea/Planning
Area/PlanningBooks
Generatenew
new Books
CVCs/Prop
CVCs/Propfactors
factors Planning
PlanningBook
Book
Design/Maintenance
Design/Maintenance
Load
Loadnew
new
master
masterdata
datatoto
Data Maintenance
Planning
PlanningArea
Area Forecast
ForecastProfiles
Profiles Activities
Design/Maintenance
Design/Maintenance
Monitoring
Monitoring Creation
Creationofof
forecast
forecastaccuracy
accuracy Statistical
Statisticalforecast
forecast
Historical
Historicaldata
data Creation
Creationofof
updates
updates promotions
promotions
Release
ReleaseofofDemand
Demand Manual
Manual
Plan
Plan Adjustments
Adjustments
Reconciliation
Reconciliationofof Business Process
Demand
DemandPlans
Plans
80 Activities 81
with it Historical
Historicaldata
data Creation
Creationofof
updates promotions
You can compare the results from different forecast runs updates promotions
Reconciliation
Reconciliationofof Business Process
Demand
DemandPlans
Plans
82 Activities 83
Release of Demand Plan Release of Demand Plan (cont.)
SAP BW/BI
Monitoring
Monitoring Creation
Creationofof
forecast
forecastaccuracy
accuracy Statistical
Statisticalforecast
forecast
DP
Historical
Historicaldata
data Creation
Creationofof
updates
updates promotions
promotions
Historical Data
(Shipments, Orders)
Release
ReleaseofofDemand
Demand Manual
Manual
Plan
Plan Adjustments
Adjustments
Reconciliation
Reconciliationofof Business Process Non-SAP
Demand
DemandPlans
Plans
Activities 86 87
f Actual ship date? Requested ship date? Customer requested f Most DP implementations use classic Sales Order History
date? Order entry date? f As companies delve into CPFR (Collaborative Planning,
At what level will historical data be kept? Forecasting, and Replenishment) implementations,
How often should SAP Demand Planning be updated? customers/suppliers begin to share genuine demand
information POS
How are cross-period events handled?
f POS eliminates Bullwhip Effect from Sales Order History and
Tips
accounts for more accurate demand forecast
CLEARLY define what constitutes historical data, and make
f SAP APO DP allows seamless integration of POS via EDI852
sure all groups (especially BI) understand this definition
transaction (IDoc: PROACT01)
SAP Demand Planning needs, in most cases, at least two
years of historical data for statistical models to produce high
quality results!
88 89
A Typical Demand Planning Process Monitoring Forecast Accuracy
Create InfoCube/Planning
InfoCube/PlanningArea
You monitor forecast accuracy
Createnew
new Area
master
masterdata Design/Maintenance
data Design/Maintenance
Evaluate/Update To find out whether you are using the right forecast models
Evaluate/Update
Generate Planning
PlanningArea/Planning
Area/PlanningBooks
Generatenew
To identify what adjustments are needed to forecast models
new Books
CVCs/Prop
CVCs/Propfactors
factors Planning
PlanningBook
Book
Design/Maintenance
To project expected deviation from the planned forecast
Design/Maintenance
Load
Loadnew
new
master
masterdata
datatoto
Data Maintenance
Planning
PlanningArea
Area Forecast
ForecastProfiles
Profiles Activities Important things to consider
Design/Maintenance
Design/Maintenance
Whats your definition of Forecast Accuracy?
Monitoring
Monitoring Creation
Creationofof f Example: FA = 1 ([Actual Forecast]/Actual)
forecast
forecastaccuracy
accuracy Statistical
Statisticalforecast
forecast
How will you monitor Forecast Accuracy?
Historical
Historicaldata
data Creation
Creationofof
updates
updates promotions
promotions
Release
ReleaseofofDemand
Demand Manual
Manual
Plan
Plan Adjustments
Adjustments
Reconciliation
Reconciliationofof Business Process
Demand
DemandPlans
Plans
Activities 90 91
Four DP Methods with Which to Monitor Forecast Accuracy 1 Univariate Forecast Error Measurements
1 Univariate forecast error measurements Univariate measures of error available in SAP Demand Planning
2 Multiple Linear Regression model measures of fit
3 Planned/actual comparison using macros
4 Use an SAP NetWeaver BI/SAP BW front end for forecast MAD Mean Absolute Deviation
accuracy reporting
Total Error Total Forecast Error
MAPE Mean Absolute Percentage Error
MSE Mean Square Error
RMSE Root of the Mean Square Error
MPE Mean Percentage Error Bias
92 93
2 Multiple Linear Regression Model Measures of Fit 3 Planned/Actual Comparison Using Macros
SAP Demand Planning offers you many ways to measure how well Macro automatically calculates forecast error, then triggers an
an MLR model fits the available data alert if that error exceeds preset levels
R-square Information alert if 10% or less
Durbin-Watson
T-test
Mean elasticity
Information
Warning
94 Error 95
4 Use an SAP NetWeaver BI/SAP BW Front End for
Monitoring Forecast Accuracy Forecast Accuracy Reporting
Forecast Fit vs. Forecast Accuracy You can use the SAP BEx Analyzer/Explorer to extract data
Forecast Fit describes the relative difference between actual directly from SAP Demand Planning identical to an SAP
historical data and a hypothetical forecast generated by system NetWeaver BI/SAP BW report
Forecast Accuracy describes the relative difference between
actual historical data and actual forecast previously generated
by the system
SAP APO Demand Planning is pre-built with standard Forecast
Fit algorithms. Therefore, a demand planner may select forecast
fit errors he may monitor during each statistical forecast
generation
Forecast Accuracy algorithms can be either designed using
SAP APO macros or via SAP BI Reporting functionality
96 97
Monitoring Forecast Accuracy: Some Tips Monitoring Forecast Accuracy: Some Tips (cont.)
Establish and communicate your organizations definition of Dedicate plenty of time/resources to figuring out which statistical
forecast accuracy models are the most appropriate to use
Set up effective ways of monitoring forecast accuracy It is not appropriate to use the same model for all items
This is key to understanding how to adjust/change the A model should not be arbitrarily selected based on
forecast process presumptions alone
Leverage DP data structures Model parameters should be tested and continually reviewed
They make it easy to analyze forecast accuracy at a variety of Data should be analyzed for patterns or the absence thereof
different levels: f Those closest to the business should be tapped for
f Specific product brands domain knowledge
f Specific customers
98 99
Monitoring Forecast Accuracy: Some Tips (cont.) Error Metrics MAPE vs. MPE
Absolute
If you use the rolling error analysis format: Forecast Actual Error Absolute Error Percent Error
You must include key figures to which the past period data can Product 1 3 1 -2 2 200%
be written Product 2 0 50 50 50 100%
You can report accuracy data directly out of SAP Demand Product 3 25 75 50 50 67%
Planning Product 4 75 74 -1 1 1%
Product 5 100 75 -25 25 33%
Prerequisites for ad hoc reporting out of a DP InfoCube:
TOTAL 203 275 72 128
f A planning area in SAP APO AVERAGE 40.6 55 14.4 25.6 80%
f An extraction structure for the planning area
f An InfoSource Without
With Product 1 Product 1
f A standard or remote Cube that reflects liveCache data Mean Percent Error (MPE)
80% 50%
Using the standard error metrics generated by SAP APO is a great =avg(absolute percentage error)
way to judge forecast accuracy
MAPE is generally regarded as the best metric to use Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)
47% 46%
=sum(absolute errors)/sum(actuals)
100 101
Error Metrics Managing Planning Exceptions with Alerts
Implications Notify users of exception situations occurring in the demand
MPE is easily skewed by a single entry planning process
f Product 1 drives much of the error in the previous example An exception can be:
MAPE doesnt suffer from this, and is much more balanced, and Changes in bias, new trends, unexpected demands
therefore offers a more practical metric for monitoring forecast Orders exceed forecast
error/accuracy Orders fall short of forecast, which may lead to excess
inventory
Forecast accuracy is below a specified threshold
You can enhance the usefulness of MAPE by adding
weighting factors (standard cost, list price) to the calculation. Alerts can be filtered and prioritized based on severity through
This results in higher-value items having a greater influence configuration
on the overall error than lower-value ones, and resolves one
of the drawbacks of using MAPE the assumption that the
absolute error of each item is equal.
102 103
Enhancing a forecast with key DP tools f Too many characteristics, key figures, planning books,
SAP Demand Planning How to implement it macros doing complicated calculations, etc.
Planning and designing your DP solution f My advice Keep your initial model simple, because you can
104 105
Levels of forecasting
Time buckets
f Forecast in week/month buckets, not days liveCache size = function (combinations, time buckets, versions)
This is multiplicative, non-linear, and difficult to predict!
106 107
SAP QuickSizer and liveCache (cont.) SAP QuickSizer and liveCache (cont.)
108 109
SAP QuickSizer and liveCache (cont.) Testing Your SAP Demand Planning Implementation
Testing SAP Demand Planning usually consists of:
Design Unit test, System test, Data Migration test
Ex-post forecast
Dont wait until the end to test with realistic data volumes!
111
Support
Who can users call for help?
CIF CIF CIF
f Competency Center model
f Consulting support
SAP ERP SAP ERP SAP ERP Raging go-live party
Dev QAS Copy
Get users involved early Creating a forecast using DPs Statistical Models
f Figure out data scale early how many materials, etc. Configuring and testing your DP solution
114 115
116 117
Life cycle and promotion planning Composite models combine forecasts to reduce error
Excellent way of monitoring accuracy Causal forecasting can be very effective when used in
Quick reporting using SAP Business Explorer (SAP BEx conjunction with Time Series forecasting
Analyzer) But understand what it actually does, and that its more
Superior integration with other modules of SAP APO demanding to set up and maintain
SAP Demand Planning is extremely flexible so proper planning f DP supports a business process getting the process right
118 119
7 Key Points to Take Home (cont.) Your Turn!
Keep your design simple, but be careful
Detail may grow exponentially as you go DP SNP PP/DS
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