Trumps Road To World War III

Cameron Patera

POLSC101

3/26/17

It seemed like the world stopped for a split second. Donald Trump had clinched the

United States presidential election by a sizeable margin. The seconds were counting down what

seemed like the longest day of the entire year, November 8th. It was a shock to all because those

who were attentive to the goings on of politics were seeing an outcome that was entirely the

opposite of what was happening. With the mass media advocating the results of mostly

pro-Democratic polls and statistics throughout the election cycle, many assumed that it was a

landslide for Clinton. This was not the case however, as Trumps ability to invoke emotion and

take advantage of voting demographics handed him a historical victory. How long this victory

will last, however, is uncertain due to troublesome ties abroad.

Its safe to say that currently, Donald Trump isnt going anywhere. His victory is said and

done and I dont think hes going to step down nor will he be assassinated at least during his

term. However, during the election I considered myself as a Trump supporter and as such I think

I can speak for what I consider to be the main contributing factor to his victory--the silent

majority. The media didnt consider the silent majority--in this case those that secretly supported

Donald Trump in fear of backlash from society, to be much of a threat. Post-debate polls and
general election polls had Clinton in a pretty good position with reliable sources such as

Rassmussen, NBC, and The LA Times showing steady streams of Clinton-favored results.

However, it was these same Democratic-leaning polls that fed the silent majority. The radical left

seemed to feel very comfortable in this almost assured victory and were very vocal about it,

voicing their opinions in a very physical and emotional ways. For example, there were large

amounts of assaults on Trump supporters at rallies and stories that went viral, like the woman

who was egged for having different political views than her attackers. If youre a neutral political

onlooker and you see this aggressive way of acting from one party, the other one I would think

seems the better choice. People seeing that others who were just trying to express their political

opinion were getting shut down by those who opposed, which may have swayed some into

joining the silent majority. A lot of this exposure of the radical left can be seen on the internet,

the birthplace of a solid portion of the silent majority. This portion owes itself to the birth and

rise of the alt-right movement, something that the media and older generations didnt touch upon

a whole lot during the election. There exists on the internet in places such as 4chan or Reddits

The Donald, what is known as the redpilling phenomenon. Redpilling is essentially when a

bunch of Republican conspiracy theorists and anti-social justice warriors all get together and talk

about their controversial opinions and theories in hopes of luring political onlookers into their

mindset in order to convert them. It sounds crazy, but the silent majority, at least the millennial

side of it, is made up mostly of these people. This community, who had dubbed themselves the

Alt-Right, started to really pick up steam after a while. Their trademark mascot Pepe The Frog

had been shown on CNN and subsequently been admitted into the ADL as a hate symbol and

radical news outlets like Breitbart and Infowars were starting to gain more of a viewership.
These people with their highly controversial, nationalist points of view ignited a passionate flame

amongst impressionable voters. This was a passion for Donald Trump.

As far as politics go, many dont even care. A study conducted by Pew Research has

shown that a whopping ten percent of U.S. citizens, about thirty-two million people, really

dislike or couldnt care less about politics1. Id say that the majority of the people tend to agree

with these bystanders in the respect that politicians are some of the most despicable people in

U.S. society. This leads into the next major factor, the want for something new. Donald Trump

isnt a politician, hes an actor, a TV host, and a business tycoon with strong opinions. You

compare him to the Clinton family, whos so deeply rooted in politics that theyre touching

bedrock, and you get two choices: another politician that might give you the same as whats been

going on, or you could take a huge risk and shoot for national--even global change. Hillary

Clintons lack of transparency also further proved Americans distrust in politicians to be true

with The New York Times reporting that 67% of voters polled dont trust her at all2. Take a look

at the candidates scandals as well and you see two sides. Clintons are very political. The email

servers and deleted emails, the Clinton Foundation being a money-making scam, The Benghazi

cover-up. Trumps are the opposite, theyre very social. The rape accusations, the locker room

tape where hes recorded talking about groping women, Trump University. This triggers a

realization. It doesnt matter whether these scandals are true or not, its the principle that these

scandals are being applied to. While Hillary does have a political pedigree, its the possibility of

these accusations being true that make it a little dubious. Trumps, however, dont have to do

1
Gao, George. "1-in-10 Americans Dont Give a Hoot about Politics." Pew Research Center. Pew
Research Center, 07 July 2014. Web. 11 Dec. 2016.

2
Barbaro, Michael. "Americans Dont Trust Her. But Why?" The New York Times. The New York
Times, 16 Aug. 2016. Web. 11 Dec. 2016.
with anything political regardless of the practicality of his platform. We live in a day and age

where people such as Edward Snowden have pioneered public privacy, making the social aspects

of a politician are just as important as the political ones. Because of this, Trumps scandals

compared to Clintons might not hold much weight. However, if you were looking in through an

uninformed lens, would you rather trust the accused sexist or the accused political criminal as the

leader of the most powerful and influential country in the world?

Another factor that plays into the political side is the lack of productivity from the

Democratic party in recent years. During Obamas two terms, he was serving alongside a

Republican House and Senate. Due to the fact that his political party opposes that of his

congress, he was unable to make as much change as initially planned. Many had more or less lost

faith in the Democratic party due to their lack of ability to get much done while in charge.

Because of U.S. societys habit of blaming the president for national issues and lack of

productivity, a president whose views more or less coincide with that of their congress will in

theory make more change, hopefully positive. We as humans feed on hope and as U.S. citizens

we feed on change, just look at how Obama was able to win over the American population with

one simple word. Due to this combination of emotions, the publics attitude towards national

authority will likely change for the better.

One thing to understand about Donald Trump is his mass appeal. When most people

think of Donald Trump, a few things come to mind: his controversial statements in regards to

race, his concern about terrorism, and his brash demeanor. These traits all have one thing in

common--they all instill fear. Most fear a race war, most fear terrorist attacks, and most find

noise and rudeness to be off putting. Donald Trump is great at targeting people like radical
republicans, white supremacists, and a good portion of the middle class as well. Trump

acknowledges the subjects that concern America the most and by demonstrating these subjects in

a horrific fashion, he is able to tap into the xenophobic nature that many Americans share. While

one could argue that this could be borderline fear-mongering, theres a big factor at play,

neoliberalism. These same people that Trump is appealing to have been affected negatively by

this let business do what they want mindset that neoliberalism preaches. This then leads into

my next point which I consider to be the biggest impact that this skill in appealing led to; the

republicanization of the Rust Belt. The Rust Belt is a grouping of states in the Northeastern

and Midwestern U.S., namely Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan, that once thrived on America

being one of the manufacturing capitals of the world. These states, however, have lost heavily to

the outsourcing of labor to countries like China and Taiwan, a potential side effect of

neoliberalism, leaving in them in a state of disrepair. Trumps economic policies seemed to

target the Rust Belt, and seemingly the Clintons with Bill being the one who passed NAFTA, a

pro-neoliberalist accord. Hes essentially giving the people somebody to blame for the Rust

Belts lack of prosperity while in turn promising new jobs for Americans and the reconstruction

of these cities that once used to be mechas. Places like Detroit, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh come

to mind. Theoretically speaking however, there is one major problem. The population of these

states are strongly Democratic. Do the citizens of these states attempt to elect somebody that

goes against almost all of their core political values at the promise of an economic rebirth? This

is an example of the aforementioned risk-taking involved with electing somebody like Donald

Trump. Fast forward all the way through the election, and low and behold, all of these

historically liberal states are turning bright red, demonstrating that the process of appealing to a
persons fears and wants will more often than not produce results. Whether youre a KKK

member or a down on their luck Michigander, it's hard to dispute that Donald Trumps mastery

of appeal won him the states he did.

Age demographics and psychological tendencies also play a part in the election of

Donald Trump. The highest voting demographic is easily the Silent Generation, that being those

people from the ages of around 60-80. According to the Pew Research Center, 72% of those

from the Silent Generation were quoted as saying they voted. You take the next highest voting

demographic, the baby boomers, who were quoted at around 68%, a pretty large difference in

4%. The Silent Generation also happens to be the only voting demographic that is primarily

Republican. From those aged 69-86, there consists a positive 4 percent difference between

parties. Opposing that is the Baby Boomers negative 6 percent, Gen Xs negative 11 percent,

and the Millennials negative 16 percent according to the Pew Research Center34. Along with the

voting demographics and their political preferences, one must take into account personal reasons.

Election day isnt a holiday, which means those with jobs must go to work. Both Generation X

and the Baby Boomers are primarily employed which means that they must wake up early, go to

work, come back late, and then have to wait in line with a bunch of like-minded people only to

have your dreams for the next 4 years potentially crushed. If I was in their situation Id probably

think to myself everybody else will figure it out. In this case the everybody else being the

older Republican voters who are retired and get up early to go to the polls. My thoughts though

could also lead into the problem of the lazy millennial generation of which I am a part. Id say

3
Fry, Richard. "Millennials Match Baby Boomers as Largest Generation in U.S. Electorate, but Will
They Vote?" Pew Research Center. Pew Research Center, 16 May 2016. Web. 11 Dec. 2016.
4
Smith, Samantha. "A Different Look at Generations and Partisanship." Pew Research Center. Pew
Research Center, 30 Apr. 2015. Web. 11 Dec. 2016.
most of us would rather not do something if it would essentially complete itself in time. The

election seemed to be a prime example of that, with Newsweek reporting that Hillary was in an

almost 4 point lead the day before the election. A lot of the primarily left millennials, if they

think like I think they do, stayed home because they thought Hillary would win. This proved to

be false though, as Trump won the election by a very large margin. The left made a vital mistake

in their conscious decision to not vote which allowed the right to prevail.

Now that Trump is sworn in, many people are unsurprisingly apprehensive about the

future of the human race, and Crimea is a very important reason. Crimea is a peninsula on the

South of Ukraine attached to the Black Sea which Russia annexed in 2014. Since then theyve

basically been in de facto control. Crimea, if fully taken by Russia in the future, could prove to

be very useful. Success in Crimea is important to the success of the Russian government due to

its valuable resources and geographical advantages. The first of these advantages is Crimeas

focus on tourism, something not that major, but still impactful. Crimea has been described as

having air so fresh it possessed healing properties, an easily defining factor amongst the

surrounding countries. Crimea also provides Russia with a place for possible relocation of

current citizens as well as the high population of Russians that make up around 58% of the

Crimean population5. Problems of having a crowded city are no longer an issue however, as

Crimea possesses a modern transportation system akin to metropolitan areas such as New York

City or London. The thing about Crimea that really makes the Russians salivate is natural gas.

Global leaders in natural gas tend to cause thunderous tension in the surrounding areas, and

Russia is no different. As of January 1st, 2014, Russia is the largest exporter of natural gas in the

5
J, Leslie. "Russian Census of Crimea: Nationality Results." Eurasianstudies. N.p., 12 Mar. 2016. Web.
29 Mar. 2017.
world, producing around 196bcm(196,000,000,000 cubic meters)of natural gas per year6. This

surpasses the second largest exporter, Qatar, by roughly 82bcm per year7. Thats a significant

amount considering other countries are usually separated by less than half that. While the

stockage of another important Crimean resource, oil, is still fairly large, with there being

multiple oil fields on land as well as in the black sea, nothing compares to their fuel reserves.

Crimea has in its possession 8 fuel reserves, 3 on land and 5 in the Black Sea with he most

notable amongst them being the Odessa gas field which produces around 20bcm on its own.

These fields in Crimea easily contain trillions of dollars worth of gas which would help stabilize

the failing Russian economy that has been steadily declining in their GDP.

Trump's election runs deep in Russia, affecting both their economy and their foreign ties

in noticeable ways. First of all, pre-existing economic sanctions by The U.S. and other western

countries have been running their currency exchange rate and global trade market into the ground
8
. This forces Putin to start making his measures a little more drastic, much to the surrounding

countries dismay. Places that have normally shunned combat, such as Sweden, are reinstating

practices such as conscription as a response to a growing fear that Putin will essentially shake

them and others by their ankles and collect all the natural gas they can get. This tension proved

to be all too real because on August 8th, 2016, Ukrainian officials reported that Russia had

started to bolster its military along the Ukrainian demarcation line, or the line that separates the

annexed area from mainland Ukraine. Ukraine saw this as research for a full scale invasion and

6
"The World Factbook: RUSSIA." Central Intelligence Agency. Central Intelligence Agency, 12 Jan. 2017.
Web. 29 Mar. 2017.
7
"The World Factbook: QATAR." Central Intelligence Agency. Central Intelligence Agency, 12 Jan. 2017.
Web. 29 Mar. 2017.
8
"Russia GDP | 1989-2017 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast | News." Russia GDP | 1989-2017 | Data |
Chart | Calendar | Forecast | News. N.p., n.d. Web. 29 Mar. 2017.
subsequently responded by doing the same. Things havent changed much over the past 8

months, but there have been reported kidnappings and deaths on both sides. While the accuracy

of these reports are dubious, the fact that they exist is reason enough for Russia to go that one

step further and pass that demarcation line. Theres just one factor stopping them though, and

thats the United States. Perhaps the biggest contributing factor that Trump brings to Russias

harassment of surrounding areas is his problem with NATO. The North Atlantic Treaty

Organization, or NATO for short, is a military alliance made up of 28 relatively developed

countries from across the world. NATOs pledge is an attack on one is an attack against all,

which immediately puts the United States in between a rock and a hard place. Its common

knowledge that Putin and Trump get along, with Putins probable assistance in the outcome of

the U.S. election being currently under investigation. With tension being easily cuttable in

Eastern Europe by Russias immense power, NATO has called upon the U.S. to help out, but

thats an obvious problem. The U.S. hasnt had semi-positive ties with Russia since the mid-20th

century, and with Russia being an international powerhouse, its understandable to see why

Donald Trump is reluctant to provide assistance. However, its likely that Putin already knows

this, so hes been taking as much advantage as he can of the wests reluctance to intervene.

Others have decided to take charge in defending themselves, with troops from Europe reported

March 25th being sent Poland-ways to deter Russian offensive actions.9 This leaves the U.S.

and NATO in a very sticky situation. America has to fight somebody of positive relations or risk

appeasement which isnt a good idea as the last time appeasement occurred, Britain and France

9
"NATO Troops Head for Poland 'to Deter Russian Offensive Actions'." RT International. RT, 25 Mar.
2017. Web. 29 Mar. 2017.
let Hitler take over the Rhineland. The rest is history, but right now its looking awful

reminiscent.

He[Putin]is playing the politics, hes playing the media, hes playing the economic card

and hes maneuvering.10 Two years later and that quote from NATO European Allied

Commander Wesley Clark still runs true. Putin is absolutely playing the economic card by not

only shaking down the small surrounding countries, but by signing deals with larger, more

influential ones. On 21 May 2014, prominent Russian gas company Gazprom signed a 30-year

long deal with Chinas National Petroleum Corporation(CNPC)to create a new energy market in

China11. At the time, this benefitted both parties as Chinas economy was flourishing and Russia

was having difficulty moving gas in Europe due to impending sanctions that were later passed.

The plan was supposed to go into effect in the year 2018, but as we approach the date thats

looking like less of an option as Chinas economy has since sharply declined due to problems

with falling stocks and civil unrest. The tank in gas prices has also not helped, with gas falling

from 100 dollars to 30 dollars per barrel. To break even in this situation, gas prices would need

to be at least 80 dollars per barrel. The project has been rescheduled for the year 2019, but due to

harsh ties surrounding both countries and the possibility of Crimean gas exports being curtailed,

this natural gas snafu could end up being another cog in the war machine.

Russia is in an unusual win-win situation here. If success is reached in foreign natural gas

market(s), Russias economy would flourish and theyd be left with so much disposable income

to fix shortcomings. Things such as their outdated military system, if fixed, would most likely

lead to an almost immediate victory should Russia pursue their interests. If the deal with China

10
Mizokami, Kyle. "How a Russia vs. NATO Would Really Go down." BBC. BBC, 16 June 2016. Web. 28
Mar. 2017.
11
"Russia Signs 30-year Gas Deal with China." BBC. BBC, 21 May 2014. Web. 28 Mar. 2017.
slips through the cracks, however, Russia is pretty much left with an all in choice, fight NATO.

A victory is probable, given the only country that stands a chance in combat, America, is too

busy standing on its head to even be on the fence about the whole situation. Russia also

possesses a massive, powerful, and well-equipped military force capable of handling NATO on

its own12. While the Russian military is much less sophisticated in terms of technology and

training efficiency, they have a long history of winning battles in their country by totally brute

forcing it. If all else fails though, history could repeat itself as it often does and hand Russia

another domestic victory.

With current bringing much uncertainty into the world, its not unlikely that World War

III could be started due to Trumps preexisting ties. Some argue that World War III is currently

being fought however, as proxy wars such as Syria seem a suitable option for large powers that

dont want to risk damaging their infrastructure. Regardless of whether World War III has started

or not, its important to note the possible factors and be informed should push come to shove.

12
"How a Russia vs. NATO War Would Really Go down." The Week. N.p., 16 June 2016. Web. 29 Mar.
2017.
Gao, George. "1-in-10 Americans Dont Give a Hoot about Politics." Pew Research Center. Pew

Research Center, 07 July 2014. Web. 11 Dec. 2016.

Barbaro, Michael. "Americans Dont Trust Her. But Why?" The New York Times. The New York

Times, 16 Aug. 2016. Web. 11 Dec. 2016.

Fry, Richard. "Millennials Match Baby Boomers as Largest Generation in U.S. Electorate, but Will

They Vote?" Pew Research Center. Pew Research Center, 16 May 2016. Web. 11 Dec. 2016.

Smith, Samantha. "A Different Look at Generations and Partisanship." Pew Research Center. Pew

Research Center, 30 Apr. 2015. Web. 11 Dec. 2016.