PROBABILITY

8. Draw a non-face card when a card is drawn from a

Given a statistical experiment with sample space S and an regular deck of cards.
event E which is a subset of S. The probability of E, denoted S = draw a card n(S) = 52
by P(E) is a measure associated to the likelihood or chances E = draw a non-face card n(E) = 40
of the occurrence of E. It is defined as P(non-face)=40/52=10/13
n E or
P E E = draw a face card E = draw a non-
n S face card
where n(S) is the total number of outcomes (or sample Since n(E) = 12, then
points) of the experiment, while n(E) is the number of P(E) = 1 P(E) = 1 12/52 = 1 3/13 =
outcomes favorable to the occurrence of event E. 10/13

NOTE:
P(E) can be expressed in decimal, fraction, or percent form. REMARK: The preceding examples involve finding the
Unless specified express all decimal and percent result in 2 probability of single events. In case the probability involves
decimal places. two or more events, the one must use either the ADDITION
RULE or the MULTIPLICATION RULE.
Properties:
1. P(S) = 1 MUTUALLY AND NON-MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
2. If E is the complementary event of E, then Two events A and B are mutually exclusive if they have no
P E P E ' 1
sample point in common. If they have at least one sample
or equivalently point in common, then A and B are non-mutually exclusive
P E ' 1 P E events.

3. 0 P E 1
4. If P(E) is near 1, then E is more likely to happen. If
P(E) = 1 , then E will surely happen. If P(E) is near
0, then E is less likely to happen. If P(E) = 0 , then E
will surely not happen. A B B
Given P(A or B), use the addition rule.
Examples: OR is synonymous to set union (elements of the sets are
Find the probability of the following events: combined)
1. Getting an odd number when a die is rolled. AND is Synonymous to set intersection (get common
elements of the sets)
S = roll a die n(S)=6
E = get an odd n(E)=3
ADDITION RULE
P(E)=n(E)/n(S) = 3/6 = 1/2
If A and B are mutually exclusive, then
2. Getting a sum of seven when two dice are rolled. P ( A or B ) P ( A) P ( B )
S=roll 2 dice n(S) = 6*6 = 36 otherwise,
E= get a sum of 7 = {(1,6),(6,1),(2,5),
(5,2),(3,4), (4,3)}
P(E) =6/36 = 1/6 P ( A or B ) P ( A) P ( B ) P ( A and B )
NOTES:
3. Getting a head when a coin is tossed. P(A or B) = probability that A only occurs or B only
S = {T,H} occurs or both A and B occur. Equivalently, P(A or
E = {H} B) is the probability that at least one of A and B
P(E )= 1/2 occur.
P(A and B) = probability that A and B will both occur
4. Getting more heads than tails when three coins are at the same time.
tossed. If A and B are mutually exclusive, then P(A or B) =
n(S) = 222 = 8 0.
E= more heads than tails = {HHT, HTH,
THH, HHH} n(E) = 4 Examples of mutually exclusive events:
P(E) = 4/8 = 1/2 1. Draw a heart card or a diamond card when a card is
drawn from a regular deck of cards
5. Draw a face card when a card is drawn from a 2. Get a sum of 7 or a sum of 11 when two dice are
regular deck of cards. rolled
S = draw a card n(S) = 52 3. Get more heads than tails or all tails when 4 coins
E = draw a face card n(E) = 12 are tossed
P(face)=12/52=3/13
Examples of non-mutually exclusive events:
6. Draw an ace card when a card is drawn from a 1. Draw a face card or a black card
regular deck of cards. 2. Draw a red card or a diamond card
S = draw a card n(S) = 52 3. Get a sum of eight or a double when two dice
E = draw an ace card n(E) = 4 are rolled
P(ace) = 4/52 = 1/13
Examples: Find the probability of the following events:
7. Draw a non-ace card when a card is drawn from a 1. Getting a prime number or an odd number when a
regular deck of cards. die is rolled.
S = draw a card n(S) = 52 A = get a prime number = {2, 3, 5}
E = draw an non-ace card n(E) = 48 B = get an odd number = {1, 3, 5}
A and B = {3, 5}
P(non-ace) = 48/52 = 12/13
Getting a prime number and getting an
or
odd number are non mutually exclusive
E = draw an ace card E = draw a non-
events. Therefore,
ace card
P(odd or prime)=P(odd) + P(prime)
Since n(E) = 4, then
P(odd and prime)
P(E) = 1 P(E) = 1 4/52 = 1 1/13 =
12/13 =3/6 + 3/6 2/6 = 4/6 or 2/3

2. Getting the same numbers (a double) or a sum of
seven when two dice are rolled.
Getting a double or a sum of seven are
mutually exclusive events, hence
P( same numbers OR sum of 7) = P(same
nos) + P(sum of 7) = 6/36 + 6/36 = 1/6 +
1/6 = 2/6 or 1/3
3. Getting a face card or a queen card when a card is
drawn from a regular deck of cards
Getting a face card or a queen card are
non-mutually exclusive events, hence
P(face or queen) = P(face) + P(queen)
P(face card and a queen) = 12/52 + 4/52
4/52 = 12/52 = 3/13
4. Getting an ace card or a red card a card is drawn
from a regular deck of cards.
Getting an ace card or a red card are non-
mutually exclusive events, therefore,
P(ace or red)= P(ace) + P(red) P(ace
card and red) = 4/52 + 26/52 2/52 =
28/52 = 7/13
5. Getting all tails or all heads when three coins are
tossed.
Getting all tails or all heads are mutually
exclusive event. Therefore,
P( 3T or 3H) = P(3T) + P(3H) = 1/8 + 1/8
= 2/8 or 1/4
INDEPENDENT AND DEPENDENT EVENTS
Two events A and B are independent if the occurrence of one
has no effect on the probability of the occurrence of the
other. Otherwise, the events are said to be dependent.
Examples: Independent Events
1. Drawing 2 cards from a regular deck with
replacement
2. Passing 2 subjects
3. Tossing 2 coins
4. Rolling 2 dice
Examples: Dependent Events
1. Drawing 2 cards from a regular deck without
replacement
2. Passing the subject and passing the monthly
examination of the subject
Given P(A and B), then use the MULTIPLICATION RULE
MULTIPLICATION RULE
The probability that A occurs and B occurs is given by
P ( A and B ) P ( A) P ( B | A)
where
P ( B | A) probability that B will occur
assuming that A already
occurred.
If A and B are independent events, then
P ( B | A) P B
This implies that the probability of B is not affected by the
occurrence of A.
Therefore, if A and B are independent events, then
P( A and B) P( A) P ( B )
Examples:
1. Find the probability of drawing 2 face cards from a
regular deck of cards if the cards are drawn without
replacement.
Solution:
P(2 face cards) = P(1st card is a face card and 2nd
card is a face card)
= P(1st face card) P(2nd face card | 1st face card)
= 12/52 11/51
2. Solve the preceding problem assuming that the
cards are drawn with replacement.
Solution:
P(2 face cards) = P(1st face card and 2nd face card)
= P(1st face card) P(2nd face card | 1st face card)
= 12/52 12/52
or
Since the two events are independent, then
P(2 face cards) = P(1st face card) P(2nd face card)
= 12/52 12/52
3. Find the probability that when one draws three balls
from a box containing 4 green, 5 red and 3 blue
balls, the three balls drawn are of GREEN if the balls
are drawn
a. with replacement (drawn ball is returned into
the box)
b. without replacement (drawn ball is not
returned into the box)
Solution:
WITH REPLACEMENT
P(3G) = ?
=P(1st green AND 2nd green AND 3rd green) = ?
Note that these three events are independent
events, since the ball drawn in returned back to the
box.
P(3G) = P(1st is G) P(2nd is G) P(3rd is G)
= 4/12 4/12 4/12 = 1/3 1/3 1/3 =
1/27
WITHOUT REPLACEMENT
P(3G)=?
Since a green ball drawn is not returned to the box,
the probability of drawing the next green ball is not
the same as the probability of the drawing the
preceding green ball. Therefore,
P(3G) =P(1st green AND 2nd green AND 3rd green)
=?
= P( 1st is green) P(2nd is green | 1st is green)
P(3rd is green | 1st and 2nd are green)
= 4/12 3/11 2/10 = 24/1320 = 1/55
OR USING COMBINATION
S= draw 3 balls from a box of 12 balls n(S) =
C(12,3) = 220
E= draw 3 green from 4 green balls n(E) = C(4,3)
=4
P(E) = n(E)/n(S) = C(4,3)/C(12,3) = 4/220 or 1/55
NOTE: If selections are done without replacement,
then the events are dependent. This is equivalent
to a combination problem.
4. A drawer contains 4 white and 6 black socks. Find
the probability that the 2 socks drawn are
a. both black?
b. of the same color?
c. of different colors?
Unless otherwise specified, assume drawing without
replacement.
Solution:
a. E1 = draw a black sock from the drawer
E2 = draw another black sock from the drawer
P(draw 2 black socks) = P(E1 and E2) = P(E1)
P(E2|E1) = (6/10)(5/9) = 30/90 = 1/3
b. P(same color) = P(both black or both white) = ?
Since these events are mutually exclusive
events, then
P(both black or both white) = P(both are black)
+ P(both are white).
P(both are black) = 1/3 (or 30/90).
 P(both are white) = P(1st sock is white and 2nd a. without replacement
sock is also white) = (4/10)(3/9) = 12/90. b. with replacement
P(same color) = 30/90 + 12/90 = 42/90 = 7. from a box of 6 blue and 4 red balls, the two balls
7/15. are of the same color if the balls are drawn
a. without replacement
c. P(different colors) = ? b. with replacement
P(different colors) = 1 P(same color) 8. from a box of 6 blue and 4 red balls, the two balls
= 1 42/90 = 48/90 = 8/15 are of different colors if the balls are drawn
a. without replacement
b. with replacement

SOLUTION:
OR Using Combinations: 1. Find the probability that when two coins are tossed,
S = draw 2 socks from 10 socks n(S) = C(10,2) = two tails will result.
45. Solution:
E = draw 2 black socks from 6 black socks n(E) = Let A = event of getting a tail in
C(6,2) = 15 the 1st toss
P(both black) = n(E)/n(S) = 15/45 = 1/3. B = event of getting a tail in the
2nd toss
b) P(same color) = ? P(A and B) = ?
P(same color) = P(both white OR both Since A and B are independent, then
black) P(A and B) = P(A)P(B) =
= P(both white) + P(both black) 1 1 1
= C(4,2)/C(10,2) +
C(6,2)/C(10,2) 2 2 4
=6/45 + 15/45 = 21/45 = 7/15
2. Find the probability that when two coins are tossed,
c) P(different colors) = ? a head and a tail will result.
P(different colors) = 1 P(same color) Solution 1: Enumeration
= 1 7/15 = 8/15 S = {TT, TH, HT, HH} n(S) = 4
E = get a tail and a head = {TH, HT}
5. The probability that a student will pass biostatistics n(E) = 2
is 0.8 and her probability of passing biochemistry is Therefore,
n E 2 1
0.6. find the following:
a. probability that she will pass both subjects
P E
b. probability that she will fail both subjects
c. probability that she will pass biostatistics
n S 4 2
but fail biochemistry
Solution 2: Use addition and multiplication
Solution: rules
Let A = pass biostat Let A = getting a tail in the 1st
B =pass biochem toss
Note that A and B are independent events B = getting a head in the 2nd toss
a. probability that she will pass both subjects P(getting a head and a tail) = P((A and B) or (A
P( A and B)=P(A) P(B) = (0.8)(0.6) = 0.48 and B)) addition rule, mutually exclusive
Since A and B (T then H) and A and B (H then
b. probability that she will fail both subjects T) are mutually exclusive, then
Let A=failing biostat P(H and T) = P(A and B) + P(A and B)
B=failing biochem Since A and B are independent and so are A
Since A and B are independent, then so are A and and B, then
B P(H and T) = P(A)P(B) + P(A)P(B)
P(A and B)=P(A) P(B) = (1-0.8)(1-0.6) = (0.2)
(0.4) =0.08 or 8%
1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1
c. probability that she will pass biostatistics but
fail biochemistry 2 2 2 2 4 4 4 2
P(A and B)= P(A) P(B) = (0.8)(1 0.6) =
(0.8)(0.4)=0.32 or 32%

NOTE: 3. Find the probability that if 2 persons are selected

In solving a probability problem involving at least 2 events, if from a group of 4 men and 3 women, the two
the problem involves OR, determine if the events are persons are both male.
mutually exclusive or not, then use the ADDITION RULE. If Solution 1: Count using Combination
the problem involves AND, determine if the events are Let S = number of ways of selecting 2
independent or not, then use the MULTIPLICATION RULE. persons from the group of 4 men and 3
women without restriction and let E = the
More Examples: number of ways of selecting 2 men from
Find the probability of the following: the same group.
1. when two coins are tossed, two tails will result. n(S) = C(7,2) = 21
2. when two coins are tossed, a head and a tail will n(E) = C(4,2) = 6.
result. Therefore,
3. from a group of 4 men and 3 women, when 2 n E 6 2
P(E) =
n S 21 7
persons are selected, the two persons are both
male.
4. from a group of 4 men and 3 women, when 2
persons are selected, the two persons are of the Solution 2: Use multiplication rule
same gender. Let A = Select the 1st male
5. from a group of 4 men and 3 women, when 2 B = Select the 2nd male
persons are selected, the two persons are of
different gender.
6. from a box of 6 blue and 4 red balls, the two balls
are both red if the balls are drawn
 The 2 events are dependent: the probability P(2 red balls) = P(1st ball is red)
4 4 4 16
that A occurs is , while the probability that P(2nd ball is red) =
7 10 10 100
B occurs assuming that A already occurred is
3 a. P(2 balls same color with replacement) =
. Therefore, P(2 red balls with replacement) + P(2 blue
6 balls with replacement). In both
P(select 2 males) = P(A) P(B | A) probability problems, then two involved
events are independent events. Hence
4 3 2
= P(2 R w/ rep) = P(1st is red) P(2nd is red)
7 6 7 4 4 16
which is the same as the preceding result. =
10 10 100
4. Find the probability that if 2 persons are selected and
from a group of 4 men and 3 women, the two P(2 B w/ rep) = P(1st is blue) P(2nd is
persons are of the same gender. blue)
Solution: Use addition and multiplication rules 6 6 36
If we let E = same gender, then =
P(E) = P(both male or both female) 10 10 100
These 2 events are mutually exclusive, hence Therefore,
P(E) = P(both male) + P(both female) P(2 balls same color) = P(2 red) + P(2
From the preceding problem, blue)
P(both male) = 2/7
16 36 52
Verify (using the preceding example as model) =
that 100 100 100
P(both female) = 1/7
Therefore, EXERCISES:
P(E) = P(both male) + P(both female) 7. Find the probability that if two balls are drawn from
2 1 3 a box of 6 blue and 4 red balls, the two balls are
both red if the balls are drawn
7 7 7 a. without replacement
b. with replacement
5. Find the probability that if 2 persons are selected
from a group of 4 men and 3 women, when 2 8. Find the probability that if two balls are drawn from
persons are selected, the two persons are of a box of 6 blue and 4 red balls, the two balls are of
different gender. different colors if the balls are drawn
Solution: a. without replacement
If we let E = select two persons of the b. with replacement
same gender, then
E = select two persons of 9. The probability that a student will pass the
different gender monthly exam is 70%, the preliminary exam is
Using the Complement Rule, we have 60% and the final exam 80%. Assuming that
P(E) = 1 P(E) passing these 3 exams are independent, find the
3 4 probability that the student will pass the monthly
= 1 and final exam but fail the preliminary exam.
7 7 ___________

6. Find the probability that if two balls are drawn from 10. If A and B are independent events and P(A) = 0.4
a box of 6 blue and 4 red balls, the two balls are and P(B) = 0.5, find
both red if the balls are drawn a. the Venn diagram summarizing the given
a. without replacement probability data.
b. with replacement b. P(A and B) ____________
c. P(A and B) ____________
d. P(A or B) _____________

11. If A and B are mutually exclusive events and P(A)

= 0.3 and P(B) = 0.45, find
a. the Venn diagram summarizing the given
probability data.
b. P(A or B) ___________
Solution: c. P(A and B) __________
WITHOUT REPLACEMENT d. P(Aand B) __________
a. Event of getting 2 red balls = get 1st
red ball (event A) then get 2nd red ball
without replacing the 1st ball (event
B)
Since A and B are dependent, then
P(2 red balls) = P(1st ball is red)
P(2nd ball is red given that the first
ball drawn is red)
or in symbols,
P(2 R) = P(A) P(B | A)
4 3 12
=
10 9 90
b. Event of getting 2 red balls = get 1st
red ball (event A) then get 2nd red ball
after replacing the 2nd ball (event B)
Since A and B are independent, then