Professional Documents
Culture Documents
FED SURVEY
They responded to CNBCs invitation to participate in our online survey. Their responses were
collected on June 8-10, 2017, after former FBI Director James Comey finished his testimony to
April 30,
the Senate Intelligence Committee. Participants were not required to answer every question.
This is not intended to be a scientific poll and its results should not be extrapolated beyond those
who did accept our invitation.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Raise interest
rates 100%
Lower interest
rates 0%
Keep rates
unchanged 0%
Don't know/
unsure 0%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Launch new quantitative easing
10% 10% Lower interest rates
10%
4% 5% 5%
3% 2%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0%
Jan 27 Mar 15 Apr 26 Jun 14 Jul 26 Aug 24 Sep 20 Nov 1 Dec 13 Jan 31 Mar 14 May 2 Jun 13
(For the 100% answering the next move will be to raise rates)
Jul 3%
Aug 0%
Sep 54%
Oct 3% Average:
November
Nov 5%
2017
Dec 21%
Jan '18 0%
Feb 5%
Mar 10%
Apr 0%
May 0%
After
May '18
0%
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.16
2.98 3.03
3.00
2.78
2.50
Average
2.50
1.97
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Nov 1 Dec 13 Jan 31 Mar 14 May 2 Jun 13
Survey Dates
Approve 27%
Disapprove 49%
Don't know/
unsure
24%
Approve 50%
Disapprove 26%
Don't
know/ 24%
unsure
Yes 32%
No 47%
Don't
know/ 21%
unsure
Yes 55%
No 26%
Don't
know/ 18%
unsure
Yes 71%
No 5%
Don't
know/ 24%
unsure
Avg. forecast
Mar 14 survey May 2 survey June 13 survey
Q4 2017
Q4 2017 Q1 2018
(0% said
Tax cuts (0% said never) (5% said never)
never)
+1.40
+1.33 +1.18
+1.21 +1.24
Somewhat +1.00
positive
+0.94
+0.87 +0.87
+0.76
+0.50 Individual tax cuts +0.62
+0.21
Average
Health care
Neutral +0.00
-0.24
-0.50
-0.81
-0.89
-0.96 -0.96
Somewhat
-1.00
negative
-1.23 Trade policies
-1.50
Very
negative -2.00
Dec 13 Jan 31 Mar 14 May 2 Jun 13
Survey dates
Yes 29%
No 58%
Don't
know/ 13%
unsure
Helpful 3%
Harmful 34%
No effect 63%
90%
82%
80% Solid economic fundamentals,
including a better corporate
profit outlook
72%
70%
63%
62%
60%
50% 50%
48%
40%
36%
30%
29%
26%
Expectations for policy changes
20% from the new administration
18%
10%
Don't know/unsure 8%
3% 2% 2%
0%
0%
Dec 13 Jan 31 Mar 14 May 2 Jun 13
90%
80%
Too optimistic
70%
64%
62%
60% 56%
56%
50%
47%
40% 39%
42% Realistic
39%
30%
32% 31%
20%
Don't know/unsure
Too pessimstic
10% 11%
5%
2% 3% 2%
3%
0%
Dec 13 Jan 31 Mar 14 May 2 Jun 13
Less belief
in coming
fiscal
50%
stimulus
A lower
inflation 45%
outlook
A lower
growth 37%
outlook
Other 11%
Concern
Fed officials
could make
8%
a policy
Other responses:
Financial repression policies in the system awash in excess liquidity
U.S. as well as ECB and BOJ channeled into government securities
monetary and bank regulatory due to regulatory and monetary
policies. Additional factors include policy.
Asian currency intervention and Happenstance
stabilization of Petrodollar recycling. Political uncertainty
While there has been some softening Low international bond yields
of the growth and inflation outlook,
these are secondary factors in a
15. Where do you expect the S&P 500 stock index will
be on ?
FED SURVEY
April 30,
December 31, 2017 December 31, 2018
2,700
2,600 2564
2555
2562
2,500
2453
2442
2480
2427
2,400
2409
2357
2354
2,300 2275
2244
2223
2249 2255
2,200 2234 2242
2200
2158
2,100
2107
2,000
1,900
1,800
Dec Jan Jan Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar May Jun
15 15 26 15 26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 14 2 13
2016 2017
Survey Dates
3.44% 3.43%
3.5%
3.37%
3.22%
3.09%
2.96%
3.0% 2.88% 3.05%
2.90%
2.88%
2.83%
2.54% 2.74%
2.5% 2.58% 2.61%
2.26%2.28%
2.24% 2.25%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
Dec Jan Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar May Jun
15 26 15 26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 14 2 13
2016 2017
Survey Dates
17. Where do you expect the fed funds target rate will
be on ?
FED SURVEY
Dec 31, 2017 Dec 31, 2018 Dec 31, 2019
April 30,
3.0%
2.73%
2.67%2.70% 2.68%
2.5% 2.56%
2.25%
2.17% 2.19%
2.22% 2.15%
2.07% 2.10%
2.0% 2.06%
1.87%
1.81%
1.61%1.61%1.62%1.60% 1.78%
1.69%
1.49%
1.5% 1.43%1.42%
1.32%
1.43% 1.26%
1.22% 1.37%
1.18% 1.16%
1.0% 1.09%
0.5%
0.0%
Dec Jan Jan Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar May Jun
15 15 26 15 26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 14 2 13
2016 2017
18. At what fed funds level will the Federal Reserve stop
hiking rates in the current cycle? That is, what will be the
terminalFED
rate?SURVEY
April 30,
4.0%
3.5%
3.30%
3.20%
3.17%
3.11%
3.06%
3.16%
2.98% 2.95% 2.94%
3.0% 3.04%
2.92%
2.91%
2.85%2.79% 2.73%
2.80%
2.65%
2.69%
2.65% 2.64%
2.58% 2.48%
2.5% 2.56%
2.42% 2.44%
2.29%
2.0%
Sep 16
Sept 16
Sep 20
Oct 28
Mar 17
Jul 26
Jun 13
Jun 16
Mar 15
Jul 28
Oct 27
Jun 14
Mar 14
Aug 25
Apr 28
Apr 26
Aug 20
Aug 24
Dec 16
Dec 15
Nov 1
Dec 13
Jan 27, '15
Jan 26 '16
Jan 31 '17
May 2
Survey Dates
2.8% +2.76%
+2.75%
+2.62%
2.6% +2.57%
+2.58%
+2.43% +2.51%
+2.41%
2.4% +2.45%
+2.38%
+2.28%
+2.26%
+2.31%
2.0%
1.8%
Jan 26
Dec 15 Mar 15 Apr 26 Jun 14 Jul 26 Aug 24 Sep 20 Nov 1 Dec 13 Jan 31 Mar 14 May 2 Jun 13
'16
2017 +2.43% +2.31% +2.41% +2.21% +2.25% +2.26% +2.24% +2.28% +2.16% +2.57% +2.51% +2.38% +2.24% +2.25%
2018 +2.76% +2.75% +2.62% +2.58% +2.45%
+0.24
+0.20
2017
+0.12
+0.05
+0.39
+0.39
2018
+0.35
+0.20
2.64%
2.6% 2.57%
2.50%
2.44%
2.38%
2.4%
2.36% 2.37%
2.24%
2.20% 2.28%
2.2% 2.16% 2.23%
2.12%
1.8%
1.6%
Dec Jan Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar May Jun
15 26 15 26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 14 2 13
2016 2017
Survey Dates
April
Jul 30, 5%
Aug 0%
Sep 5%
Oct 5%
Nov 3%
Dec 46%
Feb 0%
Mar 5%
Apr 3%
May 0%
Average:
Jun 3% November '17
Jul 0%
May 2 Survey:
Aug 0% January 2018
Sep 0%
Oct 0%
Nov 3%
Dec 0%
Jan '19 0%
Feb 0%
Mar 0%
Apr 0%
Never 3%
24. What target size for its balance do you believe the
Federal Reserve will adopt?
0% FED
10% SURVEY
20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
April 30,
0.50 0%
0.75 0%
1.00 8%
1.25 0%
1.50 0% Average:
1.75 11%
$2.4
2.00 14% trillion
2.25 3%
2.50 36%
Trillions of dollars
2.75 6%
3.00 17%
3.25 0%
3.50 3%
3.75 0%
4.00 0%
4.25 0%
4.50 3%
4.75 0%
5.00 0%
More
than 5 0%
25. Roughly how many years will the Fed take to reach
this goal?
0% FED
10% SURVEY
20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
April 30,
1 3%
2 3%
3 19%
Average:
5 33%
6 14%
7 6%
8 0%
9 0%
10 3%
More
than 0%
10
Fed will
not reach 0%
goal
0% FED 20%
10% SURVEY
30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
April 30,
Yes 79%
No 8%
Don't
know/ 13%
unsure
Statistical
noise from
seasonal
37%
adjustment
Difficulty
finding 34%
workers
Slowdown
in economic 18%
growth
Other 11%
Don't
know/ 0%
unsure
Other responses:
FED SURVEY
Dec 13 Jan 31 Jun 13
0% April 20%
10% 30, 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
11%
Yes 5%
11%
82%
No 74%
68%
7%
Don't
know/ 21%
unsure
21%
14%
Kevin Warsh 17%
24%
38%
John Taylor 33%
20%
22%
Don't know 19%
20%
Gary Cohn
20%
3%
Glen Hubbard 8%
8%
3%
Jerome Powell 4%
4%
3%
John Allison
4%
3%
Larry Lindsey 4%
3%
Non-academic 4%
William Dudley 4%
Friedrich Hayek
4%
(1899-1992)
Larry Kudlow 4%
3%
Donald Trump Jr.
3%
Jared Kushner
Knut Wicksell 3%
(1851-1926)
3%
Richard Fischer
Someone 3%
unqualified
Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates
Don't know/unsure
European elections
Immigration policy
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation
Deficits
Other
Survey
Date
Apr 30 20 31 20 0 2 2 11 0
Jun 18 15 28 20 3 3 0 13 0
Jul 30 8 30 22 0 2 2 10 14 4
Sep 17 4 27 22 2 0 4 18 7 2
Oct 29 8 29 24 3 3 3 8 13 0
Dec 17 5 32 29 2 0 2 15 2 2
Jan 28
'14 7 21 30 2 0 0 12 21 0
Mar 18 10 23 26 3 5 0 5 18 0
Apr 28 3 26 21 3 5 0 8 18 13 0
Jul 29 12 29 12 6 3 0 12 12 12 3
Sep 16 6 26 29 6 3 0 6 11 11 3
Oct 28 31 18 15 3 3 0 10 8 8 3
Dec 16 40 14 14 3 6 0 3 14 3 0
Jan 27
'15 0 13 9 0 0 0 6 16 41 6 16 0
Mar 17 6 14 0 3 6 0 6 8 28 17 14 0
April 28 3 11 8 3 0 0 6 11 28 8 19 3
Jun 16 3 17 3 0 0 0 14 25 22 6 11 0
Jul 28 6 21 9 0 0 0 12 6 29 9 9 0
Sept 16 0 16 2 0 4 0 0 8 45 8 14 2
Oct 27 0 8 5 3 8 0 8 13 41 10 5 0
FED SURVEY
April 30,
Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates
Don't know/unsure
European elections
Immigration policy
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation
Deficits
Other
Survey
Date
Dec 15 0 10 5 0 0 0 8 10 44 5 3 15 0
Jan 26
'16 0 10 5 0 3 0 0 5 44 8 0 23 3
Mar 15 5 21 3 0 0 0 5 5 33 5 0 3 21 0
Apr 26 0 22 2 2 2 0 0 7 36 9 0 7 11 2
Jun 14 0 28 5 3 0 0 3 0 28 8 0 5 13 10 0
Jul 26 2 20 7 2 2 0 2 10 22 7 0 7 7 7 2
Aug 24 3 19 3 3 0 0 3 3 31 3 3 6 14 11 0
Sep 20 0 16 11 3 0 0 0 3 30 8 5 5 8 11 0
Nov 1 3 27 8 0 3 0 8 3 32 3 0 0 5 8 0
Dec 13 5 9 2 7 0 0 7 7 19 0 2 7 28 5 2
Jan 31
'17 0 5 3 3 0 0 0 3 10 15 0 0 0 51 10 0 0
Mar 14 0 7 2 2 0 0 0 7 4 7 0 2 4 47 4 13 0
May 2 0 8 3 3 0 0 0 5 24 5 0 0 5 26 8 13 0
Jun 13 0 5 5 5 0 3 0 3 21 8 5 0 0 16 8 0 8 13 0
Other responses:
Domestic political uncertainty combined with Fed policy mistake
Fear itself
Economic entropy
Shift in investor expectations regarding future U.S. monetary policy
Unsustainable debt (public and private)
36.1%
35%
34.0%
30%
28.5% 28.8%
26.0%
25.9%
25.3%
25.5%
25% 24.4%
23.5%
22.9% 24.1%
23.2%
22.1%
22.2%
20.6% 21.6%
20.3% 20.4% 21.1%
20%
18.9%
18.2% 18.4% 18.5%
19.1% 17.3% 18.6% 18.1%
16.9% 16.9%
17.6% 16.2% 16.4% 17.4% 16.4%
15.1%
16.2%
15% 15.1%
15.3% 15.0%
15.2% 15.2%
14.6% 14.7%
13.6%
13.0%
10%
Mar 16
Mar 19
Mar 18
Mar 17
Mar 15
Jan 31 '17
Mar 14
Jan 28 '14
Jan 27 '15
April 28
Jan 15 '16
Jan 23, '12
Oct 28
Oct 27
Oct 31
Oct 29
Dec 11
Dec 17
Dec 16
Dec 15
Nov 1
Dec 13
Aug 24
Sept 16
May 2
Sep 6
Jun 14
Jul 31
Aug 11, '11
Jun 18
Jul 30
Jul 29
Jun 16
Jul 28
Jul 26
Jun 13
Sep 19
Sep 12
Sep 16
Sep 20
Apr 24
Apr 30
Apr 28
Jan 26
Apr 26
FED SURVEY
April 30,
Other
28%
Economics
49%
Currencies
0% Fixed
Income
10%
Equities
13%
Comments: