MEMORANDUM

TO: Interested Parties

FROM: B.J. Martino
DATE: May 30, 2017
RE: Findings From A Survey of Voters in New Mexico
______________________________________________________________________________

These findings are based on telephone interviews with N=605 registered likely New Mexico
voters. Responses to this survey were gathered May 20-23, 2017 and the margin of error
associated with a sample of this type is + 4.1% in 95 out of 100 cases.

Key Findings

The vast majority of New Mexico voters are not happy with the direction in which the state is
headed. Only 15% say things are going in the right direction, while fully 73% of New Mexico
voters say things are going down the wrong track. This is not a lightly held opinion, as a 54%
majority feel strongly that things are wrong track.

That intensely held negative opinion about the direction of the state plays out when voters are
asked about the Democratic legislators. A 54% majority of statewide voters disapprove of the job
Democrats in the state legislature are doing, while only 37% currently approve.

President Donald Trumps image is also upside down, with 41% favorable and 55% unfavorable
towards him, very much in line with the national average.

Concerns about K-12 public education dominate the issue matrix, picked as most important
(from a pre-written list) by 27% of voters. That is not to say economic issues are unimportant,
with 16% naming the economy, 11% jobs and unemployment, 7% poverty and 5%
spending and taxes. All told, 39% pick one of those four pocketbook issues. Crime and
safety is the only other single issue in double digits, at 12% most important.

A hypothetical ballot test for Governor, pitting Republican Steve Pearce (who has not even
decided if hes running) and Democrat Michelle Lujan-Grisham (who has been running for six
months), shows a race tied within the margin of error. Forty-three percent (43%) of voters say
they would vote for Pearce, and 47% for Lujan-Grisham, with 10% undecided.

Hypothetical Gubernatorial Ballot Test

Pearce Undecided Lujan-Grisham

43% 10% 47%

Further results start to reveal why voters have Pearce within four points of the leading candidate
for the Democratic nomination.

1 The Tarrance Group

201 North Union Street, Suite 410
Alexandria, VA 22314 (703) 684-6688
Knowing that Democrats control the legislature, a 43% plurality of voters say they would prefer a
Republican Governor so that one party does not control things and liberal Democrats do not
have a blank check. Only 35% would prefer a Democratic Governor so that the Democrats can
control things and the Democrats can pass all their programs.

Furthermore, without being provided names or parties of the candidates, 51% of voters say they
would prefer as Governor a businessman and veteran who has created jobs, while 32% would
prefer a lawyer who has a background in health care.

This is an environment in which voters are angry about the direction New Mexico is
headed, while a solid majority disapprove of the job the legislative Democrats are doing.
This drives voters to prefer a Republican Governor who can act as a check on one-party
control, and voters express a clear preference for a candidate with business and military
experience over legal and health care acumen.

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2 The Tarrance Group

201 North Union Street, Suite 410
Alexandria, VA 22314 (703) 684-6688