Professional Documents
Culture Documents
July 2010
Motivation
Concern that early test score gains may not translate into impacts
on adult outcomes
United States Tax Data
$20 K
$15 K
$10 K
$5 K
0 20 40 60 80 100
60%
College Attendance Rate
40%
20%
0%
0 20 40 60 80 100
80%
College Attendance Rate
60%
40%
20%
0 20 40 60 80 100
• For those who do not attend college, define college quality index
as mean earnings for those not in college in 1999
College Mean Wage Earnings by US News Ranking
$80,000
$70,000
Mean Earnings at Age 28
$60,000
$50,000
$40,000
0 25 50 75 100 125
US News Rank of College
College Quality (Average Earnings) Figure 2b: College Quality in 2000 vs. KG Test Score
$25 K
$20 K
$15 K
0 20 40 60 80 100
30%
Percentage Ever Owning a Home
25%
20%
15%
10%
0 20 40 60 80 100
45%
Percentage With 401k
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
0 20 40 60 80 100
$105 K
Average House Value in 2008 Zip Code
$100 K
$95 K
$90 K
$85 K
$80 K
$75 K
0 20 40 60 80 100
60%
Percentage Ever Married by Age 28
55%
50%
45%
40%
35%
0 20 40 60 80 100
9K
Mean Spouse Earnings (2005-07)
8K
7K
6K
5K
4K
0 20 40 60 80 100
0.4
Summary Outcome Index
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
0 20 40 60 80 100
Controls x x
35%
30%
Percentage Attending College
25%
20%
15%
10%
Year
Large Class Small Class
Percent in Quintile Figure 4b: College Earnings Quality by Class Size
$16K
$14K
Wage Earnings
$12K
$10K
$8K
$6K
Year
Large Class Small Class
Table 6: Impacts of Class Size of Adult Outcomes
Controls x x x x x x
Blacks Only x x
Note: All specifications control for school fixed effects and class size. Demographic controls include a
quartic in parental income interacted with marital status, parent age at child’s birth, parent gender, student
gender, free-lunch status, and race. Summary index includes a dummy for owning a home, having a
401(k), having moved outside TN, average house value in 2008 zip, a dummy for being married, and
spousal earnings (imputing 0 when single). Index is scaled such that a 1 pp. increase in test scores
increases the index by 1 unit.
Part 4: Teacher/Peer Effects
• Control for school fixed effects and indicator for class size
Figure 5a: Causal Effect of Teacher Experience on Earnings
$17.5K
$17K
$16.5K
Wage Earnings
$16K
$15.5K
$15K
$14.5K
0 5 10 15 20
Teacher Experience
Figure 5b: Effects of Teacher Experience on Earnings by Year
$16K $924
$14K
Wage Earnings
$12K
$10K
$8K
$6K
Year
Teacher Experience > 9 years Teacher Experience < 9 years
Table 7: Observable Teacher vs. Peer Effects
Dependent Var.: Wage Income
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Above Median Teacher $818.0
Experience ($397.4)
Demographic Controls x x
Note: All specifications control for school fixed effects and class size. Demographic controls
include a quartic in parental income interacted with marital status, parent’s age at child’s
birth, filing parent’s gender, parent savings, student gender, free-lunch status, and race.
Class Effects on Scores and Earnings
• Class Quality =
• Note that because we are measuring peers’ test scores at the end
of KG, class quality reflects teacher + peer effects
15
10
Test Score Percentile
-5
-10
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15
70
Actual Test Score Percentile
60
50
40
30
35 40 45 50 55 60 65
15
10
Predicted Test Score Percentile
-5
-10
-15
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15
$1,000
$500
Mean Earnings
$0
-$500
-$1,000
-20 -10 0 10 20
$1,000
Predicted Earnings at Age 28
$500
$0
-$500
-$1,000
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15
$508
$16K
$14K
Wage Earnings
$12K
$10K
$8K
$6K
Year
Above-Average Class Below-Average Class
Table 9: Class Effects on Test Scores and Earnings
Dependent Test
Var.: Percentile Wage Earnings
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
Controls x x x x x x x
Estimation First Stage Reduced Jackknife SSIV 2SLS with LIML with OLS
Method Form 2SLS 2SLS Class FX Class FX
K 2 4 6 8
Grade
K 2 4 6 8 E
Grade
Individual Controls x x x
Note: All specifications control for school fixed effects and class size. Demographic
controls include a quartic in parental income interacted with marital status, parent’s
age at child birth, parent’s gender, student gender, free-lunch status, and race.
Conclusions
1. Early childhood class effects fade out in test scores but reappear
in adult outcomes
• With 20 students per class, would pay $240K extra per year for a
1 SD better teacher