May 30, 2017

From: Justin Mayhew, Public Policy Polling

To: Interested Parties

Subject: GOP Rep. Steve Knight In Trouble In CA-25; Democrat Bryan

Caforio Clearly the Strongest Challenger for Knights Seat
________________________________________________________________________

A new Public Policy Polling survey finds that Democratic challenger Bryan Caforio sits
in a strong position to unseat vulnerable Republican incumbent Steve Knight (CA-25)
heading into 2018. In a hypothetical rematch of 2016, a majority of voters refuse to
support the incumbent (53%), and Caforio is already in a statistical dead heat with Knight
among the likely primary electorate (43% and 47% of the vote, respectively), which is
historically more Republican than the November electorate.

Knight also fails to reach the 50% threshold when competing against an expanded field
simulating a potential primary. Caforio comes in as the top Democrat, while no other
challenger even manages to break single digits.

50 46
Caforio
40
30
Knight
30
Hill
20
9 10
Phoenix
10 4
Undecided
0
Knight Caforio Hill Phoenix Undecided

This new survey highlights three central themes:

1. Knight Is Incredibly Vulnerable, and Caforio Can Beat Him.

Knights favorability sits well below fifty percent (38%), and CA-25 voters prefer a
Democrat in office, with a generic Democratic congressional candidate garnering 49% of
the vote against a generic Republican candidate (45%).

Public Policy Polling Phone: 888 621-6988

3020 Highwoods Blvd. Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com
Raleigh, NC 27604 Email: information@publicpolicypolling.com
 2. Caforio Runs Far Ahead of All Other Challengers and Is Well-Situated for a
Rematch Against Knight.

Caforio vastly outperforms all other Democratic challengers combined and is the
strongest candidate to take on Knight. Among likely primary voters, Caforio maintains
more than a 3:1 lead over his nearest opponent and is the preferred challenger to Knight
among Democrats, Republicans, and Independents.

3. A Broad Coalition of Democratic Voters from Across Key Constituencies Strongly

Support Caforio Over Other Democratic Challengers.

Among those voting for a Democrat in the primary, Caforio handily leads the other
challengers. That is because among voters who pick a Democrat in the primary, Caforio
is the preferred candidate for 61% of female voters; 77% of male voters; 83% of Latino
voters; 60% of Asian voters; and 61% of African American voters. Caforio also holds a
decisive lead among Democratic voters from every age group, including 18 to 45 year
olds (76%), 46 to 65 year olds (68%), and voters over age 65 (66%).

PPP surveyed 596 likely CA-25 primary voters from May 16-17, 2017. The margin of
error for the survey is +/-4.0 %. This poll was conducted by automated telephone
interviews.

Public Policy Polling Phone: 888 621-6988

3020 Highwoods Blvd. Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com
Raleigh, NC 27604 Email: information@publicpolicypolling.com