Technical Support Document

Winters Method - Additive Model

Initial Values for Level & Trend

1. Let N equal the Seasonal length. For your example, N = 12.

2. Run regression using the first N data values as the Y variable, and a vector of 1 through N as the X variable.
So for your data:

Y X
1.00 1
1.00 2
527.00 3
819.45 4
719.04 5
1498.47 6
788.42 7
501.08 8
307.90 9
20.30 10
1.00 11
1.00 12

The slope of the regression line is the initial value for Trend. The intercept of the regression line is the initial
value for Level.

Knowledgebase ID 1820: http://www.minitab.com/support/answers/answer.aspx?ID=1820 Page 1