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Resumen Abstract
En este trabajo se modela la fuente ssmica A model of the seismic source of the October
del tsunami de Jalisco-Colima del 9 de 9, 1995 Jalisco-Colima tsunami is obtained
octubre de 1995 ajustando los resultados del using the numerical modeling of the tsunami
modelo numrico del tsunami para reproducir DV FRQVWUDLQHG E\ HOG VXUYH\ UHSRUWV RI
adecuadamente las alturas de inundacin del WVXQDPL UXQXS DQG WKH H[WHQW RI RRGLQJ
tsunami documentadas in situ durante los by considering an earthquake (Mw~8.0) with
trabajos de reconocimiento del rea afectada rupture area A = 9000 km2, L = 150 km, W =
por el tsunami. La fuente ssmica corresponde 60 km, with two different coseismic dislocation
a un sismo de magnitud Mw~8.0 con un rea SDWFKHV P WKH GLVORFDWLRQ RI WKH UVW
de ruptura A = 9000 km2, L = 150 km, W = km along the fault plane starting from its NW
60 km, con dislocacin cossmica heterognea: edge, offshore Chalacatepec and Chamela,
dislocacin de 1 m en los primeros 60 km a lo and 3 m the dislocation of the next 90 km;
largo del plano de falla iniciando en el extremo offshore Tenacatita, Navidad and Manzanillo.
NW, mar adentro frente a Chalacatepec y As expected, the seismic source obtained in
Chamela, y dislocacin de 3 m en los restantes WKLVVWXG\LVDVLPSOLHGPRGHOLQFRPSDULVRQ
90 km, mar adentro frente a Tenacatita, of the seismic source obtained by inverting
Navidad y Manzanillo. Como se esperaba, la seismic and GPS data. However, the fact that
fuente ssmica obtenida en este estudio es un WKLV VLPSOLHG PRGHO UHSURGXFHV DGHTXDWHO\
PRGHOR VLPSOLFDGR HQ FRPSDUDFLyQ FRQ OD the location of the rupture area and its
obtenida invirtiendo datos ssmicos y de GPS. coseismic dislocation is still important in order
Sin embargo, el hecho de que este modelo to provide some degree of certainty for the
VLPSOLFDGR UHSURGX]FD DSUR[LPDGDPHQWH OD tsunami source of those historical tsunamis for
dislocacin cossmica y el rea de ruptura y which no seismic nor tide records are available,
su localizacin, es importante para validar la and only testimonies and vague relates of its
fuente ssmica de aquellos tsunamis histricos effects are documented.
de los que nicamente se cuenta con algunos
testimonios y relatos vagos de sus efectos y de Key words: Local Tsunami, Jalisco Block;
los cuales no existen registros ssmicos ni del Southern Coast of Jalisco.
nivel del mar.
E. Trejo*
F.J. Nez-Corn
Centro de Sismologa y Volcanologa de Occidente
Centro Universitario de la Costa
Universidad de Guadalajara
Avenida Universidad 203, C.P. 48200
Ixtapa, Puerto Vallarta
Jalisco, Mxico
*Corresponding author: elyt@cuc.udg.mx
M. Ortiz
Departamento de Oceanografa Fsica
&HQWURGH,QYHVWLJDFLyQ&LHQWtFD
y de Educacin Superior de Ensenada
149
E. Trejo, M. Ortiz and F. J. Nez-Corm
Figure 2. 6HLVPRWHFWRQLF IHDWXUHV RI WKH -DOLVFR UHJLRQ PRGLHG IURP 5XW] /ySH] et al. (2013). RFZ: Rivera
Fracture Zone; R1: Armera River; R2: Cohuayana River; MIA: Maximum Intensity Areas for earthquakes in 1932
(dates and magnitudes indicated); AA: Aftershocks Areas; Cities; + 2003 Epicenter of the Armera earthquake
(after Nez-Corn et al., 2004) and + 2010 Marias Islands earthquake.
&KDODFDWHSHF 7RPDWOiQ
15 105.26 19.67 60 2.60 -1
&KDPHOD /D+XHUWD
33 105.12 19.59 40 3.4 15
35 105.11 19.58 40 4.9 - 20
40 105.08 19.53 30 3.2 22
40 105.08 19.53 15 3.0 30
&DUH\HV /D+XHUWD
(O7HFXiQ /D+XHUWD
7HQDFDWLWD /D+XHUWD
78 104.81 19.30 30 4.20 - 14
81 104.79 19.28 172 3.80 - 5
81 104.79 19.28 141 4.00 - 9
81 104.79 19.28 77 3.20 13
6DQ3DWULFLR &LKXDWOiQ
92 104.71 19.22 41 4.50 3 (Melaque)
93 104.70 19.22 25 5.10 -9
96 104.68 19.20 17 3.70 26
0DUDEDVFR &LKXDWOiQ
3OD\DGH2UR 0DQ]DQLOOR
0DMDJXD 0DQ]DQLOOR
0DQ]DQLOOR 0DQ]DQLOOR
129 104.35 19.16 - 3.00 13
136 104.31 19.07 3.79 - 11
+ Distance along the fault plane illustrated in Figure 4, starting from its NW edge.
hc = Obseved tsunami run up height (Ortiz et al.,1995)
hm = Synthetic run-up height
KPKFKFUHODWLYHGLIIHUHQFH
RRGLQJ ZDV REVHUYHG NP IURP where A is the area in km2 (Utsu and Seki,
Chalacatepec to Cuyutln; Ortiz et al. (1995). 1954; Wyss, 1979, Singh et al., 1980). To this
,QWXUQWRGHOLQHDWHWKHH[WHQWRIWKHRRGLQJ case, we are using an upper limit of Mw~8.0
of the tsunami we used the observed tsunami obtained by seismic information (Pacheco et
run-up data (Ortiz et al., 1995). The run-up al., 1997).
height (hc) facilitates the delineation of the
H[WHQWRIRRGLQJRQWKHUHJLRQDOGLJLWDOWHUUDLQ The total area is composed by ten segments
elevation model by interpolating hc along the with individual subareas Ai = 3030 km2.
coast. The seismic moment Moi of each one of the
segments may be varied by varying the
The rupture area proposed here (Figure 4), coseismic dislocation (di) according to the
is a buried fault plane of L = 150 km, W = 60 relationship Moi = P Ai di WR W WKH PRPHQW
km, dipping 11 towards the coast at the depth magnitude of the earthquake (Hanks and
of 10 km in the interplate region, corresponding Kanamori, 1979). Moment estimates assume a
to an earthquake of Mw~8.0, according to the rigidity modulus P = 5x1011G\QHFP2):
relation:
( Mo) 10.7.
10
2
Mw = log10(A) + 4.0, Mw = log10
3 i =1
Figure 4. Map of the region and location of rupture area and subareas (rectangles) assumed in the numerical
modeling of tsunami. Black dots indicate locations where tsunami run-up heights (hc) were surveyed by Ortiz et al.,
(1995). Black triangles indicate VTG locations where model results or synthetic run-up values (hm) were obtained.
The coseismic vertical deformation of the XS YDOXHV DUH GHQHG KHUH DV WKH PD[LPXP
VHDRRUDVSURGXFHGE\WKHEXULHGIDXOWSODQH height (hm) of the synthetic tsunami above the
is computed by using the dislocation model of sea level at the tsunami arrival time, at each
Mansinha and Smylie, (1971), by prescribing one of the VTG locations.
a reverse fault mechanism on each one of the
segments. For the tsunami initial condition, Rupture area and dislocation
the sea-level change was taken to be the
VDPHDVWKHVHDRRUXSOLIWFDOFXODWHGIURPWKH The initial hypothesis considered the offshore
dislocation model. rupture area L = 150 km and W = 60 km
with a maximum coseismic dislocation of 4 m
The propagation of the tsunami was (Pacheco et al., 1997). However, by setting di
simulated by the vertically integrated long- = 4 m for the ten segments, all of the resulting
wave equations (Pedlosky, 1979): synthetic run-up values (hm) overestimate the
corresponding observed ones (hc). Guided by
our prejudice that causal faults slipped with
VLPSOHJHRPHWU\DQGWKDWVHDRRUGHIRUPDWLRQ
+ M =0 HOG VKRXOG EH KRPRJHQHRXV DQG VPRRWK
t we varied diVPRRWKO\DVWRREWDLQRXUEHVWW
between hm and hc by setting up to 1 m the
GLVORFDWLRQRIWKHIDXOWSODQHIRUWKHUVWNP
M along the fault plane starting from its NW edge
+ gh = 0 (offshore Chalacatepec and Chamela), and to 3
t m the dislocation of the next 90 km (offshore
Tenacatita, Navidad and Manzanillo). For 19 of
the 23 surveyed sites, the resulting synthetic
In these equations, t is time, K is the UXQXSYDOXHVDUHZLWKLQRIWKHREVHUYHG
vertical displacement of the water surface RQHV /DUJHU GLIIHUHQFHV OHVV WKDQ DUH
above the equipotential level, h is the depth of observed at the Bays of Chamela, Tenacatita,
the water column, g is the gravity acceleration, and Melaque, probably by the effects of local
and MLVWKHYHFWRURIWKHGLVFKDUJHX[HVLQ bathymetry. Observed and synthetic run-up
longitudinal and latitudinal directions. These values are shown in Table 1. The moment
equations are solved in a spherical coordinate magnitude for this heterogeneous fault model
V\VWHPE\WKHPHWKRGRIQLWHGLIIHUHQFHVZLWK is Mw7.93.
Leap-Frog scheme (Goto et al., 1997). In the
computation, the time step was set to 1 sec, A series of plots (Figure 5) illustrate the
and a grid spacing of 27 sec was used for the sensitivity of the results (hm) by shifting the
whole region, whereas a grid spacing of 3 sec location of the fault plane 30 km onshore; 30
was used to describe the shallow areas. km NW, and 30 km SW, respectively from our
preferred location illustrated in Figure 4.
For near shore bathymetry, from 1000 m
depth to the coast, we used data from local As expected, by shifting the fault plane
navigational charts, while for depths greater 30 km onshore, most of the synthetic run-
than 1000 m we used data from the ETOPO-2 XS YDOXHV DUH VPDOOHU WKDW WKH REVHUYHG
data set (Smith and Sandwell, 1997). ones; by shifting the fault 30 km NW, some
RI WKH V\QWKHWLFV DUH ODUJHU WKDQ WKH
A digital terrain model (cells of 10 10 RQHV REVHUYHG LQ &KDPHOD DQG VPDOOHU
m2) for mapping the observed tsunami run-up in Manzanillo; while by shifting the fault 30
values, as well as the synthetic ones resulting SE, most of the synthetics underestimate the
from the tsunami model, was interpolated observed ones, with exception of the ones in
from the digital topographic data set (GEMA), Manzanillo.
obtained by photogrammetry in a grid spacing
of 3 sec in the years 1980-1990 (INEGI, 1994). Arrival times
Figure 5. Observed hc versus synthetic hm run-up values obtained for the coast of Jalisco and Colima: a) by
considering the rupture area proposed in Figure 4; b) by shifting the rupture area 30 km onshore; c) by shifting
the rupture area 30 km NW; d) by shifting the rupture area 30 km SE. The origin of the distance axis corresponds
to the NW edge of the fault plane illustrated in Figure 4.
Figure 6. Synthetic tsunami waveforms at obtained the VTG locations illustrated in Figure 4.
Figure 7.([WHQWRIRRGLQJE\WKH2FWREHU-DOLVFR&ROLPDWVXQDPLE\PDSSLQJREVHUYHGUXQXSYDOXHV
as well as synthetic ones along the coast of Jalisco and Colima: a) synthetic run-up values (hm) along the coast
RI-DOLVFRDQG&ROLPDEFDQGGHQODUJHGYLHZRIWKHH[WHQWRIRRGLQJLQ&KDODFDWHSHF&KDPHODDQG7HQD-
catita, respectively.
Mansinha L., Smylie E., 1971, The Displacement Pacheco J., Singh S.K., Domnguez J., Hurtado
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