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To cite this article: G. AL-MASHIDANI , PANDE B. B. LAL & M. FATTAH MUJDA (1978)
A simple version of Gumbel's method for flood estimation / Version simplifie de la mthode
de Gumbel pour l'estimation des crues, Hydrological Sciences Bulletin, 23:3, 373-380, DOI:
10.1080/02626667809491810
G . A L - M A S H I D A N I , P A N D E , B . B . L A L and
M . F A T T A H M U J D A Department of Civil Engineering
University of Mosul, Mosul, Iraq
Abstract. Gumbel's method has been simplified in such a manner that one can obtain the magni-
tude of a given return period flood without recourse to looking at a table and working out the
value of the coefficient of variation of the given data. The results obtained by the simplified version
are compared with those obtained from using both the original approach and those from Powell's
modification of Gumbel's method.
Rsum. On a simplifi la mthode de Gumbel de sorte qu'on puisse obtenir la grandeur d'une
crue de priode de retour donne sans avoir recours un tableau et sans calculer la valeur du co-
efficient de variation des donnes disponibles. On a compar les rsultants obtenus en utilisant la
version simplifie ceux obtenus par la mthode originelle et ceux de la modification de Powell
de la mthode de Gumbel.
INTRODUCTION
The different methods of flood estimation have been summarized most adequately by
Wolf (1966). The applicability of frequency methods to the study of floods has been
widely recognized by numerous researchers in the field. Yet many others tend to criti-
cize them on the following grounds: (a) insufficient records on which to base any
extrapolation; (b) ignorance of the statistical laws on which extrapolations may be
based; (c) inhomogeneity of records (e.g. recorded flows may be the result of various
incoherent climatological mechanisms); (d) climatological changes over long periods.
Statisticians, however, agree that floods of small frequency are random variables
and they argue that even the highest design floods are strictly random variables and
should be treated as elements of statistics of extremes. Besides, to a practical engineer
the interpolation and extrapolation of flood frequencies provide an easy answer on
which to base their designs. For the purpose of flood estimation the Pearson type III,
the Gumbel extreme value distribution, and lognormal distribution seem to have found
a wider applicability than many other distributions. Kaczmarek (1957) shows that the
Gumbel type distribution is more applicable for the Vistula River in Poland than the
other types. The writers have similarly found that this distribution is the most suitable
for the River Tigris at the Mosul Gauging Station (Mujda, 1978).
03O3-6936/78/0900-O373$O2.O0 1978 Blackwell Scientific Publications 373
374 G. Al-Mashidani, Pande, B. B. Lai and M. Fattah Mujda
Details of Gumbel's method normally described in the literature can be written as
follows:
QT = Q(l+KCv) (1)
where QT = the probable discharge with a return period of T years
Cv = coefficient of variation = a/O
Q = mean flood
K = frequency factor = (yT - yn)/an
an = standard deviation of data
yT= ~Mn (T/T- 1)
yn, an = expected mean and standard deviations of reduced extremes to be found
from Gumbel's table.
Therefore, to use the method, one has to refer to a table of values to determiney n
and an and one had to calculate the value of Cv for the given data. The use of Gum-
bel's method is rather time consuming. The design offices in most of the developing
countries are still not equipped with computers and because of this there is a need to
simplify the Gumbel technique.
M O D I F I C A T I O N OF GUMBEL'S METHOD
What is different from Gumbel is that the value of K now does not depend upon
the number of years of record, but the difficulty of calculating the value of Cv remains
as before. Possibly the value of K is but a very weak function of the number of years
of record and a strong function of the return period. A graph of QT/Q versus Cv for
Iraqi rivers show that QT/Q for all rivers is only a function of Cv (Fig. 1). This means
T K T K T K
1 _ 10 1.30 80 2.94
2 -0.16 15 1.64 90 3.07
3 0.25 20 1.86 100 3.14
4 0.52 25 2.04 200 3.68
5 0.72 30 2.20 400 4.08
6 0.88 40 2.40 500 4.30
7 1.01 50 2.61 600 4.52
8 1.12 60 2.73 800 4.76
9 1.21 70 2.88 1000 4.94
D E T A I L S OF PROPOSED S I M P L I F I C A T I O N
N
(number of
years) yn n N yn on
lnlnl- j-0.55
QT-Q \T-l' (9)
1 X - 1 J, / N+ 1 ,
O - ^ O O l r - l O ^ ' - H ' - f
o ^ r^ _ ,_ fs
l O O ^ t ^ O H H O
( N I / " ) \ C O O O O ' ~ H
oo<Nr-oor--aNoooo
r o ^ H T j - t s CN t^- r~- o
^ O C O ' O T - l t - H ^ } - t O C ~ -
S)
a
comicn(Nr-coo
co^oocrj-c~-mmt^
\ r o n ^ f n ^ O H
O)
3
O
o
- a
sz
^ ^ si
3 5 J C3
i c
II! s I I 5 e IS S . 13 3 5
>-
s I l l ^< <n ^f *-<
a!
w O S>
S .5; ;
378 G. Al-Mashidani, Pande, B. B. Lai and M. Fattah Mujda
and by neglecting the quantities in brackets on the right-hand side:
T
In In = lnT (11)
Similarly 'N+ 1
N +1
In In = ln (12)
KN+ \-m, m
Hence Equation 9 can be further simplified as
QT-Q In T- 0.55
(13)
1 3 _ 1 3 (N+\
0.55
T 2 m- T I In m
Discharges for various return periods estimated by Equations 1, 2 and 9 have been
tabulated in Table 3; the data were obtained from the Ministry of Irrigation, Republic
of Iraq (1976) and Varshney (1977). The relevant figures for the discharge predictions
are given in Table 4.
-0-6 1 -
FIG. 2. Data for some Iraqi rivers plotted according to Equation 14. X = right hand side of
Equation 14.
DISCUSSION OF RESULTS
A study of Table 3 indicates that for five out of the seven Iraqi rivers, the prediction
by the present method compares favourably with those of Gumbel and Powell. For
two rivers, however, the Greater Zab at Eski-Kelek and the Adhaim at the Narrows,
the method gives values approximately 10 per cent higher than those of Gumbel. In
both these rivers a high flood has already occurred. For the Greater Zab a flood of
9710 m3/s has occurred in a record of 41 years, whereas Qioo predicted by GumbePs
method is only 9240 m3/s. For the River Adhaim at the Narrows a maximum flood of
3520 m3/s has occurred in a record of 31 years whereas (2ioo by Gumbel has a value of
3562 m3/s, which is practically the same as the recorded flood. Powell's method gives
a value of Q100 which is lower than 3520 m3/s. The limitations of Gumbel's and
Powell's methods are that the predicted values of Ql00 can be lower than the value of
3
Gmax that has already occurred in the limited period of record. By treating 3 2
m =1
Qm as a parameter for the prediction discharge for higher return floods, the predicted
values are not likely to be lower than Qmax. Hence, predictions by the present method
can be considered to be on the safe side.
380 G. Al-Mashidani, Pande, B. B. Lai and M. Fattah Mujda
CONCLUSIONS
3
3 Um
m = l
as the two parameters for discharge prediction. The former takes all the recorded data
into account and the latter gives a special weight to a few values of successively higher
discharges available in the records, as such extrapolation can be better relied upon.
5. The simplified approach compares favourably with those of Gumbel and Powell.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The authors are grateful to the Associate Editors of the Bulletin who reviewed the
original manuscript for their valuable suggestions.
REFERENCES
Kaczmarek, Z. (1957) Efficiency of the estimation of floods with a given return period. In General
Assembly of Toronto, vol. Ill-Surface Waters, Prevision, Evaporation, pp. 144-159. IAHS
Publ. no. 45.
Ministry of Irrigation, Republic of Iraq. Discharges for selected gaging stations in Iraq (1976) (a)
1959-1975: D.G. of Irrigation, Baghdad, Iraq, Aug. 1976. (b) 1931-1958: M/S Harza Engin-
eering Company and Binnie Deacon & Gourley.
Mujda, M.F. (1978) Flood Frequency Analysis of Tigris River at Mosul. (M.Sc. thesis in prepara-
tion), Department of Civil Engineering, Mosul University, Iraq.
Nash, J.E. & Shaw, B.L. (1966) Flood Frequency as a Function of Catchment Characteristics.
Paper 6, Session C, Proceedings of the Symposium organized by the Institution of Civil En-
gineers on River Flood Hydrology, London.
Schulz, E.F. (1973) Problems in Applied Hydrology, Section 9. Water Resources Publications,
Fort Collins, Colorado, U.S.A.
Varshney, R.S. (1977) Engineering Hydrology. Nem Chand and Brothers, India.
Wolf, P.O. (1966) Comparison of Methods of Flood Estimation. Paper 1, Session A, Proceedings
of the Symposium organized by the Institution of Civil Engineers on River Flood Hydrology,
London, pp. 1-23.