Accident Analysis and Prevention 52 (2013) 918

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Accident Analysis and Prevention

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Inuence of pavement condition on horizontal curve safety

Prasad Buddhavarapu a, , Ambarish Banerjee b,1 , Jorge A. Prozzi c,2
a
Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin, ECJ Bldg., Ste. 6.506 (C1761), Austin, TX 78712, United States
b
Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin, ECJ Bldg., Ste. 6.512 (C1761), Austin, TX 78712, United States
c
Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, ECJ Bldg., Ste. 6.10 (C1761), Austin, TX 78712, United States

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Crash statistics suggest that horizontal curves are the most vulnerable sites for crash occurrence. These
Received 28 July 2012 crashes are often severe and many involve at least some level of injury due to the nature of the collisions.
Received in revised form Ensuring the desired pavement surface condition is one potentially effective strategy to reduce the occur-
25 November 2012
rence of severe accidents on horizontal curves. This study sought to develop crash injury severity models
Accepted 7 December 2012
by integrating crash and pavement surface condition databases. It focuses on developing a causal relation-
ship between pavement condition indices and severity level of crashes occurring on two-lane horizontal
Keywords:
curves in Texas. In addition, it examines the suitability of the existing Skid Index for safety maintenance of
Injury severity
Ordered response model
two-lane curves. Signicant correlation is evident between pavement condition and crash injury severity
Horizontal curve safety on two-lane undivided horizontal curves in Texas. Probability of a crash becoming fatal is appreciably
Pavement condition sensitive to certain pavement indices. Data suggested that road facilities providing a smoother and more
Lateral friction measurement comfortable ride are vulnerable to severe crashes on horizontal curves. In addition, the study found that
longitudinal skid measurement barely correlates with injury severity of crashes occurring on curved
portions. The study recommends exploring the option of incorporating lateral friction measurement into
Pavement Management System (PMS) databases specically at curved road segments.
2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
Due to the recent economic downturn, most highway agencies
have experienced major budgetary shortfalls that have resulted in
serious cost-cutting measures, such as downsizing maintenance
programs. Maintaining an adequate level of safety across the entire
highway network is difcult when transportation agencies are
nancially challenged. A major proportion of Texass highway net-
work consists of rural undivided roadways such as farm-to-market
(FM) roads and other minor facilities such as county roads (CR).
Thus far, the rural highway network has borne the brunt of mainte-
nance cutbacks as this network experiences lower trafc volumes.
Identifying a networks critical locationsthose that have been his-
torically associated with high crash frequency or severitywould
help Departments of Transportation (DOT) to optimize the alloca-
tion of available resources.
Crash frequency statistics indicate that safety maintenance of
horizontal curves is often crucial on two-lane rural roads. The Fed-
eral Highway Administration (FHWA) has been archiving fatal crash
Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 512 903 3939.
E-mail addresses: sivaramroyal@gmail.com (P. Buddhavarapu),
ambarish03@yahoo.com (A. Banerjee), prozzi@mail.utexas.edu (J.A. Prozzi).
1
Tel.: +1 512 507 8605.
2
Tel.: +1 512 471 4771; fax: +1 512 475 7314.
statistics across the United States since 1994 in the Fatal Analysis
Reporting System (FARS) database. FARS statistics show that 32,885
people were killed in 30,196 fatal crashes on U.S. highways dur-
ing 2010, of which about 27 percent occurred on two-lane curves.
Interestingly, Texas is one of the states where the curve fatalities
have been consistently increasing. According to the Crash Report-
ing Information System (CRIS) maintained by the Texas Department
of Transportation (TxDOT), 41,536 crashes occurred on horizontal
curves in 2009 alone8 percent of the total crashes for that year.
In fact, fatal crashes on horizontal curves accounted for 26 per-
cent of the fatal crash count for the year 2009. FARS crash statistics
for Texas indicate that the proportion of fatal crashes on horizon-
tal curves has steadily increased from 13 to 26 percent over the
5-year period ending in 2009. Besides such alarming crash rates
on horizontal curves, crash severity was also relatively higher.
Indeed, the severity of these crashes has been a major topic of dis-
cussion and prompted several research studies. A recent NCHRP
study reported that, while only 2 percent of all crashes that occur
on horizontal curves are fatal, approximately 40 percent involve
signicant levels of bodily injury (Torbic et al., 2004). The study
specically emphasized that horizontal curves require attention
because of their higher crash rate and severity. In summary, these
crash statistics justify developing an aggressive crash prevention
program across the United States through adoption of maintenance
strategies that would proactively address the specic dangers that
horizontal curves present.

0001-4575/$ see front matter 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2012.12.010
10 P. Buddhavarapu et al. / Accident Analysis and Prevention 52 (2013) 918
The immediate benet associated with modeling crash rates
and injury severities is the potential to control the most signicant
factors that contribute to high accident rates/severity during the
pavement safety maintenance decision-making process. Histori-
cally, several policies and practices have been enforced to control
the crash severity based on modeling results. Pavement surface
condition is one possible driving factor that may inuence crash
rate and severity on horizontal curves. Therefore, pavement surface
condition management might reduce severe accidents on hori-
zontal curves, if in fact a relationship exists between pavement
condition indices and crash rate/severity.
Crash databases maintained by state and federal governments
provide detailed information pertaining to vehicle and driver char-
acteristics. Pavement surface condition at the time of the crash
is usually not recorded in such databases. However, many state
transportation agencies maintain network-level pavement condi-
tion data as part of their Pavement Management System (PMS).
Each agency utilizes various indices for representing the present
condition of pavement in terms of structural integrity, ride qual-
ity, and safety; appropriate threshold values are selected for such
indices to ensure that structural and safety standards are met for
the particular type of facility. Merging the crash data with network-
level pavement condition database facilitates the incorporation of
safety requirements in the decision-making process of the annual
pavement maintenance cycle. Tighe et al. (2001) recommended a
similar data integration framework to link crash data with pave-
ment management databases. Their suggestions included using the
crash location to determine the pavement surface condition of the
particular stretch of highway using network-level pavement man-
agement information.
This study sought to develop crash severity models through the
integration of crash data with pavement condition databases. The
crash severity modeling presented in this paper is based primarily
on crashes that occurred on horizontal curves on undivided high-
way facilities in Texas during the 4-year period ending in 2009.
This paper focuses on examining the statistical association between
pavement condition indices and severity level of crashes occurring
on these Texas horizontal curves. In addition, it examines the suit-
ability of the existing Skid Index for regular safety maintenance of
two-lane curves in Texas. Highway agencies may utilize such rela-
tionships to identify road sections with higher probability of severe
crash occurrence and thereby achieve efcient budget allocation
during their annual pavement maintenance programs.
2. Background
Numerous studies have examined the causal relationship
between crash rate/severity and the corresponding pavement char-
acteristics. For instance, Al-Masaeid (1997) studied the inuence of
the International Roughness Index (IRI) and Present Serviceability
Rating (PSR) on crash rate. Note that lower IRI and higher PSR levels
correspond to a better pavement surface or ride quality. Al-Masaeid
reported that the likelihood of crash occurrence is negatively corre-
lated with IRI in the case of single vehicle crashes. Cleveland (1987)
also reported a similar relationship between the crash rate and cor-
responding IRI. A Transport Canada report (1995) supports these
ndings by stating that each year 97 percent of crashes in Canada
occur on pavements that are in relatively good condition (with
lower IRI and higher PSR). Tighe et al. (2001) attributed these annual
crash statistics in Canada to a possibly higher level of vigilance and
caution on the drivers parts due to the pavements poor condi-
tion. Hauer (1999) also mentioned that resurfacing rural roads (i.e.,
improving pavement surface characteristics) may not necessarily
translate into improved road safety because of drivers false sense of
security on the newly resurfaced roads. Hauer et al. (1994) reported
that projects involving only simple resurfacing perform less well
from safety standpoint than similar resurfacing projects where
roadside and roadway safety improvements have been incorpo-
rated. The researchers observed that the safety level of these newly
resurfaced projects initially declined; whereas, the safety level of
resurfaced projects with roadside and roadway safety enhance-
ments improved. They also mentioned that information on changes
in speed, pavement friction, estimates of trafc volumes, etc. would
have improved the condence in explaining such behavior. The
authors recommended that users discussing the safety effect of a
resurfacing project account for all the safety activities performed.
Lumping together the safety effects of diverse kinds of resurfacing
may give a fuzzy picture. Ironically, these studies are underscoring
a danger associated with good quality roads. On the other hand, Al-
Masaeid (1997) reported that the likelihood of a crash occurrence
is higher on a poor quality road for those crashes involving multi-
ple vehicles on two-lane roads. The report attributed this nding to
the increased lateral wandering of a vehicle on rougher pavements.
Excessive lateral lane wandering possibly increases the likelihood
of a head-on collision on a two-lane road (Al-Masaeid, 1997).
Friction is another desired property of a safer pavement surface.
An adequate level of surface friction (or skid) is essential for main-
taining force-equilibrium at the tire-pavement interface. Frictional
resistance offered by a surface is arguably directional in nature
depending on the type of existing texture. In principle, a vehicle
braking on a straight road demands longitudinal frictional resis-
tance. However, for vehicles maneuvering on horizontal curves, the
presence of transverse frictional resistance is more critical. Indeed,
the pseudo lateral force (or centrifugal force) exerted on the vehicle
during the turning action along the curve should be counteracted
by the available transverse frictional resistance for safer maneu-
vering on curved road segments. Mayora and Pina (2009) reviewed
a few earlier studies that conrmed the relationship between the
crash rate and corresponding pavement surface friction. This study
analyzed 10 years of crash data from two-lane rural roads on the
Spanish National Road System and estimated a skid threshold. They
reported a negative correlation between the skid resistance (under
both wet and dry conditions) and crash rate. In another study,
Xiao et al. (2000) also reported that an increase in skid resistance
reduces the likelihood of crash occurrence specically on wet pave-
ments. This literature suggests that pavement skid resistance is
arguably one of the most important parameters that inuence crash
rate.
Most of the literature referenced above reviewed the relation-
ship between crash rate and pavement surface characteristics. Such
a review unveils the potential pavement surface properties that
could be possibly related to the crash injury severity and a further
review of literature that relates crash injury severity with pavement
surface characteristics is provided. Anastasopoulos and Mannering
(2011) modeled police-reported crash level injury severity (dened
as the injury severity of the most injured person) with rut depth,
skid resistance, IRI, and PSR using 5-year crash data from Inter-
state Highways (IH) in Indiana. They reported that the probability
of a crash becoming fatal is negatively correlated with skid resis-
tance and PSR, and positively correlated with IRI. Thus, this study
concludes that higher roughness increases the chance of a crash
becoming fatal on Interstate Highways. On the other hand, crash
rate was found to be lower on a rougher two-lane rural road in
two studies (Al-Masaeid, 1997; Cleveland, 1987). In a different
study, Milton et al. (2008) stated that the likelihood of a crash
becoming fatal can be reduced by increasing the pavement sur-
face friction. A Florida study also reported that skid resistance was
one of the signicant parameters in the estimated injury severity
model (Abdel-Aty et al., 2009). This literature provides evidence of a
relationship between crash injury severity level and the pavement
surface characteristics of the crash location.
 P. Buddhavarapu et al. / Accident Analysis and Prevention 52 (2013) 918
Crash severity is a consequence of intricate interactions between
various attributes such as driver, vehicle, environment, and pave-
ment characteristics. For example, a cautious driver may adapt
for the worst pavement surface condition and thereby reduce the
likelihood of a crash becoming fatal. In this regard, a few earlier
studies have explored the concept of perceived surface condition
and its relationship to driver characteristics. For instance, Noyce
et al. (2005) emphasized the importance of the interaction between
pavement surface friction and driver behavior. They reported that
people typically tend to compensate for any reduced pavement
surface friction by driving cautiously. A survey conducted by the
Finnish National Road Administration concluded that the correla-
tion between actual and perceived surface friction is higher in the
case of pavements with lower surface friction (Noyce et al., 2005).
In another study, Morgan and Mannering (2011) reported that the
inuence of pavement surface condition (dry/wet) is dependent
on the drivers age group and gender. These studies highlight the
factors inuencing the causal relationship between surface fric-
tion and crash severity/rate and suggest controlling such factors
in developing the causal relationship.
In summary, a relationship between pavement surface condi-
tion and crash rate/severity is anticipated based on the literature.
This study examines the existence of such a relationship in the con-
text of crashes occurring on two-lane horizontal curves in Texas. It
adds to the current literature on safety maintenance of horizontal
curves, specically in the context of skid resistance.
3. Data
3.1. Database development
Two databases were used for this study: a crash dataset span-
ning a 4-year period ending in 2009, sourced from the Motor
Vehicle Trafc Crash Database maintained by TxDOT, and a pave-
ment surface condition dataset, obtained from TxDOTs Pavement
Management Information System (PMIS). These two datasets are
linked using data elds such as crash location and crash year to
create an integrated database. Following are brief descriptions of
each database and the methodology adopted for their integration.
The crash database is structured in three different data tables:
(1) crash-level, (2) vehicle-level, and (3) person-level. A unique
crash identication number connects these three levels of data
tables. The crash-level table includes information pertaining to
crash characteristics such as crash location, counts of vehicles, and
people involved in the accident. The vehicle-level table comprised
data elds that describe each vehicle involved in the crash, such
as person count within vehicle unit, type, model and make. The
person-level table contains attributes of each individual associ-
ated with the crash such as age, gender and race. The vehicle- and
person-level information is also grouped into crash-level data elds
to account for crashes involving multiple vehicles and persons. The
grouping is achieved by introducing crash-level binary variables
corresponding to various person- and vehicle-related attributes.
The PMIS allows TxDOT to store, retrieve, analyze, and report
network-level pavement surface condition, information that is
essential for decision making in pavement maintenance and reha-
bilitation (TxDOT, 1994). Pavement surface condition is measured
once a year and typically at half-mile intervals across the Texas
road network. TxDOT collects pavement surface condition informa-
tion in both trafc directions on Interstate Highways; whereas, it
is measured only in one direction on two-lane undivided facilities
to reduce data collection expenditure. The authors assumed that
the unidirectional pavement quality measures represent the over-
all pavement condition of two-lane undivided roadways. In general,
both lanes of two-lane undivided roadways are simultaneously
11
Table 1
Distribution of crash injury severity level.
Injury severity category Proportion
Not injured 11,124 (51.5%)
Possible injury 3629 (16.8%)
Non-incapacitating injury 4190 (19.4%)
Incapacitating injury 1922 (8.8%)
Fatal 756 (3.5%)
constructed under same road rehabilitation project. Therefore, the
expected pavement quality of these lanes in both directions is going
to be the same at any given time and thereby justifying the authors
assumption. The physical locations of these pavement condition
measurements are identied using the Texas Reference Marker
(TRM) system. Crash location is also reported using the TRM in
the crash database. Thus, TRM serves as a primary key for extract-
ing the pavement surface condition information corresponding to
a given crash site. However, the location of the pavement condition
measurements (with a frequency of once every half-mile) may not
exactly coincide with crash sites; therefore, the precise pavement
surface condition information is often unavailable for crash sites.
For this reason, the authors estimated pavement surface conditions
by averaging several PMIS data points in the vicinity of the crash
site. Considering the variability within the network-level pavement
surface condition dataset, averaging multiple data points may pro-
vide a better estimate of the pavement surface condition. The study
team averaged PMIS measurements within a one-mile radius on
both sides of a given crash location to estimate the pavement con-
dition specic to that accident site. The authors also reported the
expected variance of pavement condition measurements within
the proposed one-mile radius on both sides of any given crash loca-
tion, which is computed by averaging the variances of individual
crash sites. The frequency of the PMIS data collection process allows
for retrieving up to ve measurements within a two-mile-long sec-
tion. An integrated dataset comprising both crash and pavement
surface condition information was developed by appending the
pavement surface condition estimates of crash sites to the crash
database.
3.2. Data description
The integrated dataset contains information pertaining to
22,600 crashes that occurred on a total of two-lane horizontal
curves during 20062009. The authors used a preliminary data
cleaning process to remove any possible outliers, which resulted in
a rened dataset concerning 22,199 crashes. Table 1 indicates the
shares of each crash-level injury severity category in the dataset.
Crash-level injury severity is dened as the police-reported sever-
ity level of the most injured person in a given crash. As mentioned
in Table 1, the data is divided into ve categories with an increas-
ing severity level from not-injured category to fatal category.
Although the percentage of fatalities is very low in the dataset,
about 50 percent of crashes involve at least some level of injury.
Table 2 shows descriptive statistics of a few important explana-
tory variables used for modeling crash injury severity. In addition
to the available variables, this study examines the inuence of most
intuitive interaction variables.
Five different PMIS indices describe the estimated pavement
surface condition of the crash site: (1) Skid Index, (2) Distress Index,
(3) Ride Index, (4) IRI, and (5) Condition Index. A comprehensive
description of the calculation procedures for each of these indices
is provided in TxDOTs PMIS data dictionary report, which is an
internal document.
Skid Index is an indicator of the resistance offered by the pave-
ment surface to tire slippage. It represents the overall surface
12 P. Buddhavarapu et al. / Accident Analysis and Prevention 52 (2013) 918

Table 2
Descriptive statistics of explanatory variables.

Variable Mean Std. dev. Min Max

Crash characteristics Indicator variable: rural crash site 0.829 0.377 0 1

Indicator variable: presence of grade 0.367 0.482 0 1
Average daily trafc 3637 4347 90 52,000
Average daily truck trafc percentage 12.907 7.814 0 82.5
Indicator variable: dark lighting condition but not lighted 0.323 0.468 0 1
Indicator variable: dark lighting condition but lighted 0.025 0.155 0 1
Indicator variable: collision typeOMV vehicle going straight 0.778 0.416 0 1

Pavement Indicator variable: wet surface condition 0.241 0.428 0 1

characteristics Shoulder width 8.308 6.214 0 29
Distress Index 92 12 12 100
IRI (in./mile) 122.8 39.5 40.0 388.5
Condition Index 88 16 11 100
Skid Index 35 15 10 78

Person and vehicle Indicator variable: single vehicle involved 0.755 0.430 0 1
related Ejected people count 0.096 0.348 0 5
Indicator Variable: at least one person with age above 55 0.166 0.372 0 1
Indicator Variable: at least one female passenger 0.167 0.373 0 1
Indicator Variable: at least one female driver 0.393 0.488 0 1
Indicator Variable: at least one driver with objectionable alcohol content 0.139 0.346 0 1
Indicator Variable: at least one driver with objectionable drug level 0.019 0.137 0 1
Indicator Variable: at least one person without wearing seat belt 0.082 0.274 0 1
Number of air bags deployed per person 0.170 0.353 0 1
Indicator Variable: at least one truck involved 0.581 0.493 0 1
Indicator Variable: at least one motorcycle involved 0.072 0.258 0 1
Indicator Variable: at least one driver exceeded speed limit 0.032 0.176 0 1
Indicator Variable: at least one driver without insurance 0.110 0.312 0 1

friction contributed by both the macro and micro textures of the
pavement. Although it ranges from 1 (least friction) to 100 (most
friction) in principle, values above 70 are rare. The Skid Index val-
ues of this studys crash locations are approximately uniformly
distributed. Descriptive analysis of skid data revealed that 24 per-
cent of the crash sites have a relatively low Skid Index (less than
20) while about 52 percent have moderate Skid Index (2040).
The remaining 24 percent has high skid resistance (above 40). The
expected variance of Skid Index within a one-mile radius on both
sides of a given crash location was calculated as 8. The authors do
recognize that the Skid Index used in this study is obtained through
a skid trailer (ASTM E52408), which provides a measure of lon-
gitudinal surface friction; a measure of lateral friction is perhaps
more relevant in the case of crashes on horizontal curves.
Distress Index represents the extent of surface distresses (such
as cracking, rutting, edge drop offs and raveling) within a one-mile
radius of the crash location. A utility value ranging from 0 (worst) to
1 (best) is given to each surface distress, depending on its impact on
road serviceability. The Distress Index is dened as the product of
the utility values corresponding to each of the prevailing pavement
distresses in the crash vicinity multiplied by 100. It ranges between
1 (worst pavement condition with major distresses) and 100 (best
pavement condition with minor distresses). Table 2 reports a mean
value of 92 with a standard deviation of 12. Such a high mean
demonstrates the existence of an active and effective pavement
management program in Texas. The expected variance of distress
index within a one-mile radius on both sides of a given crash loca-
tion was calculated as 5.7. Among the crashes considered in this
study, a major portion (88 percent) occurred on pavements with a
Distress Index of more than 90, i.e., roads with relatively minor dis-
tresses. These statistics suggests a counterintuitive nding in that
better roads (in terms of pavement distresses) seem to be more
vulnerable to crash occurrence.
IRI is a measure of roughness obtained from longitudinal road
proles. A higher IRI value indicates a lower ride quality on a given
pavement. Table 2 shows that the IRI corresponding to the crash
locations included in this study ranged between 15 and 388 in./mile
with a mean value of 122.8 in./mile. The expected variance of IRI
within a 1-mile radius on both sides of a given crash location was
calculated to be 21.5 in./mile.
Condition Index describes the overall condition of the pavement
in terms of surface distress and ride quality. It is an indicator of an
average persons perception of pavement quality and calculated as
the product of the corresponding Distress Index and a utility factor
that is a function of Ride Index, average annual trafc, and speed
limit. A unit utility factor is assigned for an acceptable level of ride
index on a given pavement section. The acceptable level is dened
based on average annual trafc and speed limit of the pavement
section. Thus, a condition index of 100 was assigned to a pavement
section with minor visual distresses and corresponding acceptable
ride index. Typical Condition Index values range between 1 and 100.
It is normal to have a score of 100 for the condition index in Texas.
Table 2 reports a mean value of 88 along with a standard deviation
of 16. Note that approximately 63 percent of the crashes occurred
on roadways in relatively good condition (Condition Index of more
than 90). The expected variance of a condition index within a 1-
mile radius on both sides of a given crash location was calculated
to be 8.7. In addition to the pavement condition, a few more inter-
esting features of the dataset regarding crash, driver, and vehicle
characteristics are described below.
A lower percentage of crashes are associated with adverse driv-
ing conditions, possibly because the duration of adverse conditions
and the number of vehicles traveling under such conditions may be
lower than expected. A considerable number of crashes occurred
on wet surface (24 percent of total crashes) and during nighttime
(32 percent of total crashes). Nevertheless, accidents occurring on
either dry surfaces or during the day accounted for a major portion
of total accidents. These numbers suggest that perhaps people tend
to be cautious while driving either during nighttime or in wet con-
ditions. It is interesting to note that only a small percentage (3.2
percent) of crashes contained involvement of at least one driver
exceeding posted speed limits. One possible explanation is that
accidents occurring on horizontal curves are not primarily due to
excessive vehicle speeds, given that drivers generally slow down
while maneuvering curved road segments. The proportion of acci-
dents that involved drivers with objectionable alcohol content is 14
 P. Buddhavarapu et al. / Accident Analysis and Prevention 52 (2013) 918
percent, while that of objectionable drug content is 2 percent. The
proportion of accidents that involved at least one truck is about 60
percent because trucks have a higher chance of crossing the cen-
terline while maneuvering a two-lane curve due to their additional
vehicle lengths. Collision type is possibly one of the most important
variables inuencing the crash injury severity. Authors observed
that about 78 percent of the crashes involved one moving vehicle
going straight; a minor percentages of curve crashes included angle
and other types of collisions.
4. Model description
This study utilizes an ordered probit (OP) response model struc-
ture for crash-level injury severity modeling. Ordered response
models have been popular for a long time (introduced by McElvey
and Zavoina, 1975) for modeling discrete choices with an inherent
ranking (such as severity, agreement, and intensity). These models
involve estimation of a continuous latent variable using the avail-
able relevant attributes as explanatory variables. Subsequently, this
latent variable is split into segments using estimated thresholds
corresponding to each choice category. Four threshold values are
necessary in this case for dividing the latent severity variable into
ve distinct severity categories (as shown below).
1 if Y  Xi,k
i 1
2 if 1 < Yi 2
Yi = 3 if 2 < Y 3
i
 < Y 
4 if 3 i 4
5 if 4 Yi
where Yi is discrete crash severity category of ith crash, Yi is
corresponding latent variable, {1 , 2 , 3 , 4 } are parameters
representing thresholds.
The threshold values are constrained by the following condition.
1 2 3 4 (2)
The value of the latent injury severity variable Yi is estimated
using the following equation:
Yi = XiT + i
where Xi , [Xi1 Xi2 , . . ., Xij , . . ., Xik ]T ,
Xi1 , Xi2 . . ., Xij , . . ., Xik are
attributes of ith crash, , [1 , 2 , 3 , . . ., k ]T , 1 , 2 , 3 , . . ., k are
estimated parameters of attributes. i , error term with standard
normal distribution, i = 1, . . ., n where n is the total number of crash
events. j = 1 . . ., k where k is the total number of explanatory vari-
ables.
The parameters of the explanatory variables as well as thresh-
old values are estimated using maximum likelihood approach. The
response probabilities are computed using the conditional distri-
bution of y given X under the normality assumption.
P(Yi = 1|X) = P(Yi = 1 |X) = (1 X T )
P(Yi = 2|X) = P(1 < Yi 2 |X) = (2 X T ) (1 X T )
P(Yi = 3|X) = P(2 < Yi 3 |X) = (3 X T ) (2 X T ) (4)
P(Yi = 4|X) = P(3 < Yi T T
4 |X) = (4 X ) (3 X )
P(Yi = 5|X) = P(Yi 4 |X) = 1 (4 X T )
where is the cumulative distribution function of a normally dis-
tributed variable.
Elasticity, a well-known unitless measure of the responsiveness
of a dependent variable to the changes in explanatory variables,
is adopted for sensitivity analysis. It is dened as the percentage
change in the dependent variable due to a unit percentage change
in explanatory variable remaining everything else unchanged. The
13
elasticity of probability of a crash falling under jth injury severity
category with respect to any explanatory variable Xi,k is provided
below.
Xi,k
P(Yi = j|Xi )
i,k = (5)
Xi,k P(Yi = j|Xi )
The elasticity is often viewed as a function of Xi,k rather than as
a point estimate calculated at expected value of Xk . The elasticity
is estimated using partial derivatives of choice probabilities at any
given observation Xi,k . The expressions for partial derivatives cor-
responding to each of the severity categories are provided below;
these are substituted in Eq. (5) for obtaining elasticity estimates.
P(Yi = 1|Xi )
= (1 XiT )k
Xi,k
P(Yi = 2|Xi )
= [(1 XiT ) (2 XiT )k
Xi,k
P(Yi = 3|Xi )
= [(2 XiT ) (3 XiT )k (6)
Xi,k
P(Yi = 4|Xi )
= [(3 XiT ) (3 XiT )k
Xi,k
P(Yi = 5|Xi )
= [(4 XiT )k
where is the probability density function of a normally dis-
tributed variable.
(1) The sign of the coefcient estimate (k ) governs the direction
(or sign) of the elasticity of response probabilities P(Yi = 1) and
P(Yi = 5) with respect to the explanatory variable Xk . For instance,
a positive sign on any given coefcient estimate reects the pos-
itive direction of elasticity effect corresponding to the probability
of a crash becoming fatal (or P(Yi = 5)); a negative sign reects a
negative direction of elasticity effect concerning the probability of
a crash falling under no-injury category (or P(Yi = 1)). The econo-
metric structure of the ordered response model does not allow to
the user to draw conclusions regarding the intermediate response
probabilities (i.e., P(Yi = 2), P(Yi = 3) and P(Yi = 4)). Indeed, the elas-
ticity of the response probability P(Yi = 5) (i.e., the probability of a
crash falling under fatal category) is sufcient to draw conclusions
about the crash injury severity reduction. Elasticity values are com-
(3)
puted at all the observations and an averaged elasticity estimate is
reported. The standard errors are also calculated for each of the
elasticity estimate using delta method.
5. Results
A comprehensive list of explanatory variables provided by the
studys integrated dataset is used for crash injury severity mod-
eling. Firstly, site characteristics such as geometric features and
location are anticipated to inuence the crash injury severity. Crash
site attributes such as type and class of road, vertical alignment,
surface shoulder width, weather, lighting conditions, and trafc
data are incorporated into the empirical model. Intuitively, each
of these attributes impact the resulting crash injury severity. For
instance, the presence of a downward grade may possibly increase
the demand for the transverse surface friction. Also, trafc data
indicates whether the crash site is isolated from the neighborhood.
Indeed, such crash sites naturally have a higher chance of severe
crash occurrence as drivers tend to be less cautious in such cir-
cumstances. In addition, crash-level variables such as person and
vehicle counts, driver and passenger counts, indicator variables for
truck or motorcycle involvement, number of air bags deployed and
collision type are included. These variables were selected because
they intuitively relate to the crash injury severity and are available
in typical police-reported crash databases.
14 P. Buddhavarapu et al. / Accident Analysis and Prevention 52 (2013) 918
A similar thought process was followed for the selection of other
available attributes in the dataset. Injury severity level is arguably
dened as the response of a specic crash victim. The attributes
describing the victim are as important as the crash features
described. Therefore, person-specic attributes such as gender,
age, alcohol/drug levels, aggressiveness (exceeded speed limit), and
measure of responsibility (using an indicator for uninsured drivers
and passengers/drivers without seatbelts) are considered in this
crash injury severity model. A few variables distinguishing a per-
sons role (such as driver or passenger) during the incident are also
included. For example, indicator variables such as involvement of
female passenger, female driver, drivers with age above 55, and
passengers with age above 55 are examined.
To reiterate, the major objective of this study is to evaluate the
inuence of pavement condition on crash injury severity. Hence,
special emphasis was placed on the selection of explanatory vari-
ables associated with pavement surface condition. The ve indices
that describe the pavement condition in various aspects (such as
extent of distress, ride quality, and skid resistance) were already
described. The study team selected these indices on the basis of
expert advice, data availability, and data reliability. The inherent
interdependence of the ve indices was noted by the research team.
Several combinations of these indices were carefully chosen for
crash injury severity modeling such that the selected indices are
not functions of each other.
In addition to the above three categories of variables (crash,
vehicle, and person), some of the intuitive interaction variables are
also considered in the model. For instance, involvement of drivers
speeding under adverse weather conditions (such as rain or fog),
crashes located on a wet exible pavement (asphalt surface) or a
wet concrete pavement, involvement of vehicles with slick tires on
wet pavement surface, crashes located on a distressed pavement
under darker lighting conditions and involvement of young drivers
(age less than 20) with objectionable alcohol content are considered
for examining their inuence on crash injury severity.
A nal specication was chosen carefully based on a rigor-
ous model development process including all the aforementioned
variables. Subsequently, model renement was carried out using
likelihood ratio tests and exclusion of statistically insignicant
variables. Intuition played a role in the removal of insignicant vari-
ables, rather than solely adopting a statistically based mechanical
approach. The Authors observed statistical insignicance in coef-
cient estimates corresponding to several explanatory variables
including collision type and Skid Index and excluded these esti-
mates from the nal specication. Table 3 shows rened ordered
probit model coefcient estimates that are statistically signi-
cant along with their standard deviations. The inuence of the
explanatory variables corresponding to the statistically signicant
parameter estimates on the probability of a crash becoming fatal is
discussed in next section.
In summary, the estimation results suggest that the extent of
distress and ride quality are governing parameters for crash injury
severity among all the pavement condition indices examined in
this study. Poor correlation between Skid Index and crash injury
severity is an important nding of this study.
6. Discussion
A thorough understanding of the magnitude and implications
of the statistically signicant parameter estimates (provided in
Table 3) is essential for drawing conclusions. Explanatory variables
corresponding to pavement, crash location, person, and vehicle
characteristics are discussed in this section. The elasticity effects
of response probabilities corresponding to two injury severity cat-
egories (no-injury and fatal) are also reported with respect to
statistically signicant explanatory variables in the nal speci-
cation.
6.1. Estimation results
6.1.1. Pavement characteristics
Firstly, the observed statistical insignicance of the Skid Index
in the injury severity model suggests that longitudinal friction is
irrelevant to the injury severity of crashes occurring on horizontal
curves. This nding is supported by an earlier study by Mayora and
(2009) that emphasized the importance of transverse friction
Pina
on horizontal curves in the context of safety. Also, Section 2 further
discussed the role of transverse friction for safer maneuvering on
horizontal curves. Therefore, this study advocates incorporating a
measure of transverse friction into the regular safety maintenance
system of horizontal curved road segments.
As mentioned earlier, the Distress Index indicates the extent of
surface distresses such as rutting, potholes, failures, and cracking
in the vicinity of crash site. A high Distress Index is a characteriz-
ing feature of pavement surfaces that hardly exhibit any signs of
visual distresses. Thus, a positive sign on the coefcient of the Dis-
tress Index suggests that the probability of a fatal crash is higher
if it occurs at a site with only minor distresses. In other words, the
probability of a crash falling under the fatal category is lower if
it occurs on a distressed pavement. Intuitively, an element of dis-
comfort on these distressed pavements (such as pot holes, rutting,
etc.) may provide a physical jolt and thereby enhance the drivers
vigilance.
A negative sign on the estimated coefcient of averaged IRI
suggests that it is inversely related to the probability of a crash
becoming fatal. As discussed in Section 2, IRI is an indicator of
the average ride quality of the crash site. Lower IRI values corre-
spond to smoother pavements, i.e., better ride quality. Thus, the
observed negative correlation suggests that the probability of a
crash becoming fatal is higher for crash sites with better ride qual-
ity. A similar nding was mentioned in a Canadian report as cited
in Section 2. Also, Tighe et al. (2001) stated that one of the possi-
ble reasons underlying this trend could be the extra vigilance and
caution that drivers display on roads with poor riding quality. A
similar hypothesis is provided in the above-mentioned discussion
on Distress Index. Such a hypothesis justies the negative corre-
lation between the IRI and the crash injury severity. In summary,
drivers conceivably lack adequate vigilance while driving on pave-
ments with better ride quality. Consequently, a crash occurrence
under such circumstances is often associated with an element of
surprise, thereby resulting in higher severity. The impact of drivers
inattentiveness on resulting crash injury severity should be empha-
sized. The road ride quality is frequently controlled by an upper
limit for IRI value; this study suggests that a lower limit is just as
important.
6.1.2. Crash location characteristics
In addition to these pavement condition indices, crash site
features such as surface condition, shoulder width, rural loca-
tion, presence of a downward gradient, trafc data, and lighting
condition were observed to be statistically signicant based on
the estimation results. The intuitive implications of the estimated
parameters are described below.
Firstly, the coefcient of the indicator variable for wet surface
condition does not have a straightforward interpretation due to an
extra term representing the interaction between wet surface con-
dition and slick tire indicator variables. The coefcient represents
the difference between average latent severity of crashes involving
vehicle units with non-slick tires and occurred under wet surface
condition and the average latent severity of all the crashes occurred
under dry surface condition everything else being xed. A negative
 P. Buddhavarapu et al. / Accident Analysis and Prevention 52 (2013) 918 15

Table 3
Estimation results.

Variable category Variable description Estimate Std. dev.

Crash location Indicator variable: rural crash site 0.130 0.023

characteristics Indicator variable: presence of grade 0.055 0.016
Average daily trafc 1.62E5 0.23E5
Average daily truck trafc percentage 2.43E3 1.03E3
Indicator variable: dark lighting condition but not lighted 0.050 0.018
Indicator variable: dark lighting condition but lighted 0.108 0.053

Pavement Indicator variable: wet surface condition 0.166 0.019

characteristics Shoulder width 0.002 0.001
Distress Index 1.84E3 0.65E3
Average IRI (inch/mile) 4.90E4 2.17E4

Person and vehicle Ejected people count 0.562 0.028

related Indicator Variable: at least one person with age above 55 0.152 0.021
Indicator Variable: at least one female passenger 0.125 0.021
Indicator Variable: at least one female driver 0.111 0.017
Indicator Variable: at least one driver with objectionable alcohol content 0.357 0.025
Indicator Variable: at least one driver with objectionable drug level 0.443 0.054
Indicator Variable: at least one person without wearing seat belt 1.043 0.030
Number of air bags deployed per person 0.666 0.021
Indicator Variable: at least one truck involved 0.080 0.017
Indicator Variable: at least one motorcycle involved 1.058 0.037
Indicator Variable: at least one driver exceeded speed limit 0.409 0.043
Indicator Variable: at least one driver without insurance 0.119 0.025

Interactions Indicator Variable: at least one vehicle with slick tires and wet surface condition 0.404 0.128
Indicator Variable: at least one young driver with objectionable alcohol content 0.209 0.060

Threshold 1 [crashsev = 1.00] 0.719 0.081

2 [crashsev = 2.00] 1.243 0.081
3 [crashsev = 3.00] 2.112 0.081
4 [crashsev = 4.00] 2.990 0.083

Note: number of observations: 22,199; Log likelihood at zero L(0): 28,578.55; Log likelihood at convergence L(): 25,281.05; Likelihood ratio test P-value: 0.0000.

sign on this estimated parameter counterintuitively suggests that
the chance of a crash becoming fatal is lower on wet pavement
surfaces for all the crashes involving vehicle units with non-slick
tires than that of dry pavement surfaces everything else being xed.
The extra precaution exercised by a typical driver in this adverse
condition is not being captured by this model. Perhaps this extra
caution underlies the negative correlation of wet surface condition
with injury severity. In addition, the number of days that a pave-
ment surface is wet could be signicantly fewer than the dry days
for most crash sites.
A positive sign on the coefcient of shoulder width suggests that
the likelihood of a crash becoming fatal on the two-lane curves
with wider shoulders is higher. One possible reason could be the
illusion of extra safety while driving on a roadway with wide shoul-
ders. This nding is conrmed by an earlier study by Garder (2006).
The study stated that wider shoulders increased the probability of a
fatal crash. Furthermore, Tighe et al. (2001) recommended shoulder
width as a parameter in the regular safety management programs.
However, Lamm et al. (1999) and McGee et al. (1995) reported
a reduction in accident rates with wider shoulders. Based on the
estimation results, this study suggests that an upper limit on the
shoulder width is essential.
The positive coefcient of the indicator variable correspond-
ing to rural crash locations indicates that the crashes occurring
in rural areas have a higher probability of becoming fatal than
those within city limits, presumably because drivers tend to be
less watchful while driving in rural areas. Perhaps, the observed
higher probability of a crash becoming fatal is due to presence of
higher number of horizontal curves in rural areas. Accidents occur-
ring on horizontal curves with downward gradient have a higher
chance of becoming fatal than those on at curves. Although not
explicitly mentioned in this dataset, maintaining vehicle control is
slightly more difcult on a downward gradienta possible reason
for the observed behavior. In general, this study recommends extra
vigilance of safety conditions for horizontal curves with downward
gradients.
A negative sign is observed on the estimated coefcient of
average daily trafc (ADT), while that of the average daily truck
trafc percentage (ADTTP) is positive. Drivers arguably tend to be
less cautious and vigilant while driving through scarcely trafcked
roadways. Based on the earlier discussion, such a reduced vigilance,
in turn, results in a higher probability of a fatal crash. Alternately,
the probability of a crash becoming fatal is observed to be higher
in crash sites with a higher truck trafc percentage. As explained
in Section 3, longer vehicles conceivably have a higher likelihood
for encountering roadway departures and head-on collisions. The
NCHRP report mentioned earlier (Torbic et al., 2004) indicated that
head-on collisions typically result in higher crash injury severity.
Furthermore, higher truck trafc increases the probability of occur-
rence of such collisions. Thus, the higher probability of a crash
becoming severe in crash sites with higher ADTTP is justiable.
Lastly, a negative sign is observed on both the indicator variables
describing the lighting conditions at the time of crash occurrence. In
other words, data suggest that, irrespective of the nighttime light-
ing conditions, the probability of a crash becoming fatal is higher
for accidents that occurred during the day relative to that of night.
This nding is again possibly attributed to drivers exercising greater
vigilance at nighttime.
6.1.3. Person and vehicle characteristics
As mentioned in Section 5, person- and vehicle-specic
attributes are as important as crash location and pavement char-
acteristics. Interpretation of statistically signicant parameter
estimates corresponding to these attributes is provided below.
The positive sign on the coefcient of vehicle count suggests
that the probability of a crash becoming fatal is higher for crashes
involving a higher number of vehicles. In general, ejected people
are more vulnerable to bodily injuries in the event of crash. Thus, a
16 P. Buddhavarapu et al. / Accident Analysis and Prevention 52 (2013) 918

Table 4
Elasticity of explanatory variables.

Variable category Variable description Not injured Fatal

Estimate Std. dev. Estimate Std. dev.

Crash location Indicator variable: presence of grade 0.018 0.005 0.052 0.015
characteristics Average daily trafc 0.044 0.006 0.158 0.023
Average daily truck trafc percentage 0.027 0.012 0.081 0.034
Indicator variable: dark lighting condition but not lighted 0.014 0.005 0.042 0.015
Indicator variable: dark lighting condition but lighted 0.002 0.001 0.007 0.004

Pavement Indicator variable: wet surface condition 0.026 0.003 0.115 0.014
characteristics Shoulder width 0.014 0.010 0.045 0.030
Distress Index 0.145 0.051 0.446 0.157
Average IRI (in./mile) 0.051 0.023 0.157 0.070

Person and vehicle Ejected people count 0.110 0.006 0.070 0.003
related Indicator Variable: at least one person with age above 55 0.023 0.003 0.062 0.008
Indicator Variable: at least one female passenger 0.019 0.004 0.051 0.008
Indicator Variable: at least one female driver 0.034 0.005 0.114 0.017
Indicator Variable: at least one driver with objectionable alcohol content 0.060 0.005 0.108 0.007
Indicator Variable: at least one driver with objectionable drug level 0.012 0.002 0.016 0.002
Indicator Variable: at least one person without wearing seat belt 0.151 0.006 0.131 0.003
Number of air bags deployed per person 0.131 0.006 0.250 0.007
Indicator Variable: at least one truck involved 0.037 0.008 0.123 0.026
Indicator Variable: at least one motorcycle involved 0.128 0.006 0.123 0.004
Indicator Variable: at least one driver exceeded speed limit 0.020 0.002 0.025 0.002
Indicator Variable: at least one driver without insurance 0.014 0.003 0.031 0.006

Interactions Indicator Variable: at least one vehicle with slick tires and wet surface condition 0.001 0.001 0.004 0.001
Indicator Variable: at least one young driver with objectionable alcohol content 0.004 0.001 0.009 0.003

positive correlation between the ejected people count and proba-
bility of a crash becoming fatal as indicated by the positive sign of
the corresponding coefcient is justiable. The estimation results
suggest that involvement of older (dened in this paper as age
above 55) and female individuals as either drivers or passengers
increase the likelihood of a crash becoming fatal as indicated by
the positive sign of the respective coefcients. A similar trend
is also observed in the context of crashes involving drivers with
objectionable alcohol content as well as drug content. The results
also suggest that crashes involving unrestrained people have a
higher chance of becoming fatal than do crashes involving peo-
ple with seat belts. A positive sign was observed on the parameter
related to airbag deployment. In general, air bag deployment indi-
rectly reects the crash severity; therefore, the observed positive
correlation is justiable. The data suggests that the involvement
of trucks or motorcycles increases the chance of a crash becom-
ing fatal. As mentioned in Section 6.2, an NCHRP report (Torbic
et al., 2004) asserts the observed positive correlation pertaining
to truck involvement. Intuitively, motorcycles are arguably the
most vulnerable vehicles on the road and their involvement pos-
sibly increases the chance of the crash becoming fatal, which is
in agreement with the above nding. Data also suggested that the
probability of a crash becoming fatal is higher for crashes involv-
ing vehicles exceeding speed limits and uninsured drivers. In other
words, the levels of aggressiveness and responsibility of crash vic-
tims do impact the likelihood of the crash falling under the fatal
category. Indicator variables for the involvement of vehicles with
slick tires on a wet surface and the involvement of a young driver
with objectionable alcohol content are observed to be statistically
signicantamong the most intuitive interactions examined in this
study. A crash involving at least one vehicle traveling on a wet pave-
ment with slick tires has a higher probability for falling under the
fatal category than that of crashes not involving vehicles with slick
tires. Similarly, crashes involving young drivers with objectionable
alcohol content were more likely to become fatal.
It is interesting to note that the discussions provided in each
of the Sections 6.16.3 afrm a counterintuitive driver behav-
ior. Every year transportation agencies strive to provide better
road facilities despite the astronomical amounts of maintenance
expenditure. Ironically, the study suggests that these improved
facilities are intensifying the severity of crashes in the context of
two-lane horizontal curves. Intuitively, a smooth and comfortable
ride followed by an unexpected appearance of a horizontal curve
conceivably increases the severity of any crash that might occur.
Data suggest that a reduction in ride quality in the vicinity of curve
locations might reduce the severity of these crash events. Although
this solution is not practical, alternative ways of increasing drivers
awareness should be evaluated.
6.2. Sensitivity analysis
The estimated coefcients do not directly reect the sensitivity
of corresponding exogenous variables inuencing the probability of
a given crash belonging to a severity category. Elasticity estimates
are computed for statistically signicant explanatory variables to
better understand their effect on response probabilities. The esti-
mated elasticity along with the associated standard deviation is
reported in Table 4. The elasticity estimates corresponding to two
most important severity categories (no-injury and fatal) are only
reported; Indeed, it is sufcient to draw conclusions about the crash
injury severity reduction as mentioned in Section 4. The elastic-
ity estimates of any explanatory variable corresponding to these
two crash severity categories possesses mutually opposite signs
within the ordered response modeling framework. To reiterate, the
major objective of this study is to evaluate the inuence of pave-
ment condition on crash injury severity in the case of two-lane
rural horizontal curves. Therefore, authors estimated the elasticity
of statistically signicant variables at rural crash locations (or xing
rural crash location indicator value to 1). The elasticity estimates
corresponding to exogenous variables describing the pavement
characteristics are discussed below.
As mentioned in Section 6.1.1, Distress Index and IRI were the
statistically signicant explanatory variables describing the pave-
ment characteristics of crash location. The elasticity calculations
suggest that a unit percentage increase in Distress Index causes an
increase in the probability of a fatal crash by 0.45 percent while that
of IRI causes a reduction of 0.16 percent. As mentioned in Section
3, a higher distress index represents a pavement with less surface
 P. Buddhavarapu et al. / Accident Analysis and Prevention 52 (2013) 918
distresses (such as cracking, rutting, edge drop offs and raveling);
a higher IRI value indicates a lower ride quality on a pavement sec-
tion. Thus, the sensitivity analysis concludes that a unit percentage
decrease in the level of pavement surface distress increases the
probability of a crash falling under fatal category by 0.45 percent;
a unit percentage increase in ride quality increases the probability
by 0.16 percent. These estimates suggest an appreciable percentage
increase in the probability of a fatal crash due to a unit percentage
improvement in overall pavement quality in either extent of surface
distress or ride quality. In other words, the sensitivity analysis high-
lights the fact that the superior road condition on horizontal curves
could considerably translate into increased fatalities. Identifying
the horizontal curve locations with superior pavement condition
and installing any warning devices for extra safety may resolve the
issue of extra comfortable driving surface and thereby reducing the
crash injury severity.
7. Summary and conclusions
The focus of this study included establishing a causal relation-
ship between crash severities on horizontal curves and pavement
surface condition indices. While the immediate benet would be
the identication of critical locations that are prone to high crash
injury severities, the ulterior benet would be justication for
developing an integrated approach to pavement management that
serves to address safety concerns at a network level. The scope
of this study was limited to rural undivided highways in Texas as
historical records suggest that accidents on horizontal curves are
primarily associated with lower functional classes of highways.
Crash-level injury severity was modeled using site-, vehicle-,
and person-level information. In this context, site features included
geometric characteristics, pavement surface condition, and lighting
conditions among others. An ordered probit injury severity model
was developed using the variables available in the database. The
dataset used for the purpose of this study included variables from
the crash and PMIS databases maintained by TxDOT. The important
conclusions are summarized below:
While a signicant number of crash locations had low to medium
Skid Index levels, the study team realized that this index was
poorly correlated with crash injury severity on two-lane horizon-
tal curves. The Skid Index used in this study was obtained using
a skid trailer that measures the longitudinal friction. The lack of
correlation between crash injury severity and Skid Index is there-
fore attributed to the apparent disjoint between the underlying
principles that govern the occurrence of crashes on horizontal
curves. This study strongly suggests measuring the coefcient of
lateral friction in the context of horizontal curves to develop a
meaningful index.
Among the pavement surface condition variables, the Distress
Index and IRI were found to have a statistically signicant effect
on crash injury severity. The probability of a fatal crash was
reportedly higher for smoother pavement as indicated by the
negative sign of the IRI coefcient in the model. Although seem-
ingly counterintuitive, driving does tend to be more aggressive on
smoother highways. This behavior leads to dangerous driving and
can be the reason for high levels of crash injury severity. The posi-
tive sign of the Distress Index can be similarly interpreted. A high
Distress Index is a characterizing feature of pavement surfaces
that exhibit few signs of visual distresses. Hence, it represents a
comfortable driving surface, causing high levels of crash injury
severity for the same reason stated above.
Elasticity estimates suggest that the percentage change in the
probability of a crash becoming fatal due to a unit percentage
change in either Distress Index or IRI is appreciable. This nding
17
suggests that modifying the pavement condition can signicantly
translate into reduced fatalities. Research studies conducted by
the FHWA suggest that the comprehensive costs associated with
a fatal injury are estimated at $2.6 million. However, the authors
emphasize that the emotional stress in the aftermath of a fatal
crash is very difcult to quantify and therefore priceless. Thus, the
essence of this nding underscores the importance of ensuring
the appropriate pavement surface condition, as it might hold the
key for saving an individuals life.
In conclusion, the present study highlighted the relationship
between pavement condition variables and crash injury severity
on the horizontal curves of two-lane undivided highways. The sen-
sitivity of the pavement indices with respect to the probability of
a crash becoming fatal was found to be signicant. Ironically, the
study suggests that road facilities providing smooth and comfort-
able rides increase the severity of crashes in the context of two-lane
horizontal curves. Maintaining minimum ride quality in the vicin-
ity of curve locations might be a possible solution for reducing the
severity of these crash events. Additionally, data suggested that lon-
gitudinal skid measurement is not related with crash injury severity
on rural two-lane horizontal curves. The study recommends explor-
ing the option of incorporating lateral friction measurement into
Pavement Management System (PMS) databases specically at
curved road segments. In principle, crashes on horizontal curves
result from a lack of lateral friction, and therefore the study rec-
ommends exploring the option of incorporating lateral friction
measurement at curved road segments into Pavement Manage-
ment System (PMS) databases.
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