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European Journal of RiskRegulation

Volume6,Issue2
June2015,pp.271-283

Accidents in the Energy Sector and Energy Infrastructure Attacks in the

Context of Energy Security
PeterBurgherr(a1),JenniferGiroux(a2)andMatteoSpada(a3)
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1017/S1867299X00004578
Publishedonline:20January2017

Abstract
Therisksoftechnologicalaccidentsintheenergysectorandtheirpotentiallydisastrouseffectshavebeenanalyzedover
thepastdecades,andarenowadaysgenerallyrecognizedtoconstituteakeyfactorinanencompassingassessmentof
energysecurity.Incontrast,theissueofintentionalattacksonenergyinfrastructureshasreceivedincreased
attentionmorerecently,particularlyduetogrowingdependenceofenergyimportsfromandtransitroutesthrough
regionsconsideredlessreliableandpoliticallystable.Bothtypesofrisks,however,illuminatedifferentvulnerabilities.
Therefore,thefocusofthepresentanalysiswasonthesetworiskcategories:accidentsandintentionalattacksinthe
energysector.RiskassessmentresultswerebasedonquantitativedatafromthedatabasesENSAD(Energy-related
SevereAccidentDatabase)andEIAD(EnergyInfrastructureAttackDatabase).Evaluationsexaminedsimilaritiesand

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/europeanjournalofriskregulation/article/divclasstitleaccidentsintheenergysectorandenergyinfrastructureattacksinthecontextofenergysecuritydiv/AA9B56269030710D4E5D4 1/7
5/24/2017 AccidentsintheEnergySectorandEnergyInfrastructureAttacksintheContextofEnergySecurity|EuropeanJournalofRiskRegulation|CambridgeCore

differencesbetweentechnologicalaccidentsandintentionalattacksintermsoffrequenciesandconsequences,
consideringtime-seriestrendsandregionalpatterns.Akeydifferenceisthataccidentsaretypicallyrareand
independentevents,whereasintentionalattacksareoftenmultipleeventsandconcentratedbothintimeandspace,
resultingindistincthotspots.Concerningconsequences,theseveritydistributionforaccidentsgenerallystretchesovera
broadrange,withlow-probabilityhigh-consequenceeventsbeinganimportantfactorofbothenergychainperformance
andasameasureofriskaversion.Ontheotherhand,thesetypesofconsequencesareusuallylessimportantfor
intentionalattacksbecausetargetedenergyinfrastructuresareoftenoflinearnature(e.g.pipelinesandtransmission
lines)thataredifficulttoprotectandusuallyleadthroughremoteareaswithlowpopulationdensity.However,when
frequentlyattackedsubstantialbusinessandsupplydisruptionscanoccur.Insummary,thejointanalysisofaccidents
andintentionalattacksprovidesacomprehensiveandcomplementaryapproachontwotypesofrisksthathaverather
differentproperties,butareessentialinanenergysecurityperspective.

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