World3 and Limits to Growth

Student Worksheet

Introduction

In 1972 a book, The Limits to Growth, was written and published by a team of MIT analysts
(Meadows et al., 1972). The authors used a systems analysis approach using a computer model
called World3 to examine the interactions of five subsystems of the global economic system:

population
food production
industrial production
pollution
consumption of non-renewable natural resources.

The main findings of research using the World3 model was that continued global population and
the associated economic growth would exceed the available resources of the planet, probably
sometime in the 21st Century] most likely leading to collapse of the population and economic
system. By testing various scenarios on World3, the authors also found that early action,
particularly carefully targeted policy and investment in technology, could avert this disaster.

Like, Paul Erlichs, The Population Bomb, the MIT teams book was immediate sensation with
many supporters and many detractors. It was probably the earliest, and certainly the best-known
effort to link the environment and global economics.

Donella Meadows, one of the authors described the output graphs produced from the World3
model as predictive

only in the most limited sense of the word. These graphs are not exact predictions of the values of
the variables at any particular year in the future. They are indications of the systems behavioral
tendencies only. (Meadows et al., The Limits to Growth, 1972. pp. 9293).

. There are four key elements in World3:

1. The model depends on the existence of feedback loops, both positive and negative. When
positive and negative feedback loops are balanced a steady state outcome results;
however, when one loop dominates an unstable state is the result. This condition should
be familiar to you from your study of systems.

2. The critical function of resources, such as agricultural land, may be eroded as a result of
the economic activity. This is similar to the reduction in carrying capacity due to
overshoot in many ecological models.

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Copyright 2012. North Carolina Department of Public Instruction. .
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 3. The third key element is the presence of delays in the signals from one part of the world
system to another. For instance, the impacts that result from increasing pollution levels
may not be affect life expectancy or agricultural production for some decades. This is
important because it means that policy makers need to anticipate bad impacts far ahead of
the time that those effects show up in order to be effective.

4. The world economic system is treated as a sub-systems in World3. When considering the
challenges of an individual sector such as energy or agriculture on its own it is relatively
easy to propose solutions. However, as we have seen elsewhere, changes in one part of
the system lead to unintended consequences elsewhere.

World3 scenarios generated in the 1970s have been compared to current conditions by several
researchers. Most, but not all, have found good agreement with the scenarios that World3
produced.

Assignment

Go to this version of World3 at http://insightmaker.com/insight/1954

Use the slider bars (see red arrow on right of image below) to set the parameter as shown on
Table 1 on page 6 of this worksheet.

Figure 1. Controls for World3 Simulation. . Image is screenshot from http://insightmaker.com/insight/1954

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Copyright 2012. North Carolina Department of Public Instruction. .
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Figure 2. Controls are circled in red to display graphs from model run and to download the image. Switch panes to show
Demographics or Land use data by clicking on the named tabs shown within the upper red circle. Image is screenshot
from http://insightmaker.com/insight/1954

Questions

Record the results of your model runs in Table 1 on page 6 to record results.

1. Set the Initial Non-renewable Resources slider at a low point near the left hand side of
the bar. Set the date for the Progressive Policy Adoption slider to a time in 2015. Run the
model and complete a row in Table 1 showing the results.

This scenario imagines a world that already has very low resources, perhaps from over
use in the past or perhaps just because the population has exceeded the carrying capacity
provided by these resources.

a) Overview pane: Why is the curve for persistent pollution so low in this scenario?

The curve is low because of the lack of resources as a result of over use or the exceeding of
the carrying capacity. As resources get low, there are fewer things that can be used to
make persistent pollution.
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Copyright 2012. North Carolina Department of Public Instruction. .
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 b) Demographics pane: What year does population peak in? Why does this peak occur so
early?

The population peaks at about 2026. This peak occurs early because of the sharp decline
in resources and leveling off of the persistent pollution. This decline leads to fewer
resources that would promote net population growth/fertility

c) Land use pane: Why does land fertility drop off so dramatically and then recover by
2080 in this scenario?

Land fertility drops off dramatically because of the steady decline in potentially arable
land. As this curve levels off, land fertility is able to recover.

2. Set the Initial Non-renewable Resources slider at a low point near the left hand side of
the bar. Set the date for the Progressive Policy Adoption slider to a time in 1970. Run the
model and complete a row in Table 1 showing the results.

All the conditions in this scenario are the same as the scenario set in question 1 except
that the start date for adopting Progressive Policies is set moved back to 1970.

a) Compare the results that this change produces using all 3 results panes.

In this situation, I used the year 1968, and used an Initial Nonrenewable Resource value of
143884892087. I found that population hits its peak at about 1980, declines, and then
levels off at about 3.00E9. Nonrenewable resources consistently decline, as seen in the
previous model, to about 2.00E10. Persistent pollution also stays low. Land fertility drops,
but much more drastically in this model. It then starts to come back and recover at 2010.

b) This is clearly not an accurate scenario but is there some information that might be
useful for policy makers from running this particular scenario? If so describe the
information and why it is useful. If not provide some explanation of why you think that
there is no useful information for current policy-makers in the data from this scenario.

One thing that I can take away from this simulation would be a potential example where
we can look back and understand what the effects could have been if we implemented an
environmentally-focused development policy earlier. We can use this model to understand
that continuing to delay action is malevolent to society and that we can start improving
right now.
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 3. Choose 2 scenarios that you think might provide useful information to policy makers.
Run those scenarios and record the results in Table 1. Then describe what the results
mean and how those results might be useful to inform policy.

The two scenarios I chose were future times of 2030 and 2060 and kept the initial
resource constant at 1000000000000. This helps describe a less-than-ideal world where
we have continued to experience setbacks and delays in widespread implementation in
environmental policies. This information could help motivate us to take action as soon as
possible.

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Copyright 2012. North Carolina Department of Public Instruction. .
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Table 1. Results of Scenarios using World3 Model
Initial Resource Sketch of Results Sketch of Results - Demographics
/ Overview
Year
of
Policy Adoption
1000000000000
/2015

143884892087/
1970

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Copyright 2012. North Carolina Department of Public Instruction. .
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1000000000000
/2030

1000000000000
/2060

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Copyright 2012. North Carolina Department of Public Instruction. .
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