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consistent and calibrated approach to growth over long periods. In this note, we
update our greatness framework to include FY15 numbers.
As shown over the past four years, our framework uses the following attributes
to measure consistent financial improvements: judicious capex, conversion of Analyst Details
capex to sales, pricing discipline, balance sheet discipline, cash generation and Gaurav Mehta, CFA
net profit improvement, and return ratio improvement. +91 22 3043 3255
This years portfolio gauravmehta@ambitcapital.com
We find that 80 firms from the BSE500 pass more than two-thirds of the tests in Prashant Mittal, CFA
our greatness framework. Of these, the best 30 firms that clear our accounting +91 22 3043 3218
quality and corporate governance filters make it to this years list. Of these 30 prashantmittal@ambitcapital.com
firms, we have bottom-up coverage with BUYs on: ITC, PI Industries, HCL Tech, Saurabh Mukherjea, CFA
Page Industries, Finolex Cables, TCS, Tata Motors, Supreme Industries, Berger +91 22 3043 3174
Paints, TVS Motors, HUL and Marico. 70% of the stocks in this years portfolio saurabhmukherjea@ambitcapital.com
also featured in last years portfolio implying 30% churn.
Ambit Capital and / or its affiliates do and seek to do business including investment banking with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that Ambit Capital
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should not consider this report as the only factor in making their investment decision.
Strategy
CONTENTS
Quantifying greatness. 5
c. Pricing discipline
(PBIT margin) Clearly, this approach will
have limited value if there is a
structural break in the sector
or in the company, which
makes past performance a
e. Cash generation d. Balance sheet meaningless guide to future
discipline (D/E, cash performance. (For identifying
(CFO)
structural breaks of this sort,
ratio)
for example in the Indian
boiler-turbine-generator
Source: Ambit Capital research sector or in the Indian utilities
sector, we look to our sector
We rank the BSE500 universe of firms (excluding financial services firms and leads for help.)
excluding firms with insufficient data) on our greatness score, which consists of six
equally weighted headingsinvestments, conversion to sales, pricing discipline,
However, to the extent that
balance sheet discipline, cash generation and EPS improvement, and return ratio
such structural breaks tend to
improvement. be the exception than the
Under each of these six headings, we further look at two kinds of improvements: rule, the greatness model
helps in creating a shortlist of
Percentage improvements in performance over FY13-15 vs FY10-12; and stocks that investors can then
analyse in greater detail.
Consistency in performance over FY10-15 i.e. improvements adjusted for
underlying volatility in financial data Put simply, the greatness
model separates the wheat
A complete list of factors that are considered whilst quantifying greatness has been from the chaff. Yet, it does not
provided in Exhibit 2 on the next page. cook the whole meal for you!
We rank the BSE500 universe of firms (excluding financial services firms) on this score
to arrive at this years rankings on this measure of structural strength. After removing
financial services firms and firms with insufficient data, 399 firms from the BSE500
were ranked based on this measure. The highlights from the distribution of these
firms on our greatness score are displayed on the next page.
On page 6, we show a back-test of this framework over FY04-2015 and find that it
works on a consistent basis. On pages 14-15, we show the real world performance of
these sets of portfolios over the last year and demonstrate that the construct works in
the real world as well. The lists from the BSE500 universe have cumulatively delivered
~26% CAGR returns (over the past four years) vs 14% CAGR returns for the BSE500
Index. The lists from the sub-BSE500 universe that we had published in our previous
three iterations have cumulatively delivered ~55% CAGR returns (over the past three
years) vs ~17% CAGR returns for the BSE Small-cap Index.
On pages 8-12, we delve into this years list of 30 firms that constitute our ten
baggers 5.0. This is followed by a list of 10 firms from the sub-BSE500 universe that
do well on the same framework.
Quantifying greatness
From the universe of BSE500 firms, after removing financial services firms and firms *The greatness score is
with insufficient data, 399 firms were scored on the six headings highlighted on the
calculated by assigning
previous page. The cut-off for greatness was placed at 67%* and only 80 firms (20%
equal weightages to the six
of the total population of 399 firms) could manage a score above this cut-off.
factors outlined in Exhibit 2
Exhibit 3: Distribution of firms on the greatness score (total population: 399 firms) on page 4.
Zone of mediocrity Good, not Great Zone of greatness
70.0
60.0 sub-criteria within each of
50.0 these factors is binary, with
40.0
30.0 a firm getting either 1 or 0
20.0 based on whether it has
10.0 done better than the
10%-20%
20%-30%
30%-40%
40%-50%
50%-60%
60%-70%
70%-80%
80%-90%
90%-100%
0%-10%
With regard to fundamentals, the superiority of the great firms compared with the
other two groups is evident in Exhibit 4 above. Of these 80 great firms, we identify
the ones that perform the best on our accounting and corporate governance filters,
and this leads to our final list of 30 great companies. Before we move onto these 30
potential ten baggers, we shall discuss a back-test of the greatness framework in the
next section to see whether great firms have indeed managed to deliver superior
returns historically.
1,000
Greatness
20.1% CAGR model Between 2004-15, Great firms
800
have outperformed the universe
Universe
600 15.1% CAGR (average by 5.0% points per annum (on
basis) average returns) and the BSE500
400 13.6% CAGR BSE500 Index by 6.5% points per annum
200
-
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Source: Ambit Capital research; Note: The backtest is based on annual rebalancing with forward-looking returns
being calculated from December 31 of year X to December 31 of year X+1; for example, for the most recent
year, the framework included numbers until FY14 and returns have been calculated from 31 December 2014 to
31 December 2015.
Outperformance was also seen on a median basis. A median firm in the universe has
delivered 5.0% CAGR returns (over 2004-2015). In contrast, a median great firm
has managed to deliver 9.1% CAGR returns, thus resulting in an outperformance of
~4.1% (on a CAGR basis) for great firms vs. the universe.
Exhibit 6: Median performance of Great firms vs the Universe (2004-2015)
350
300 Outperformance was also seen
9.1% CAGR Greatness
250 on a median basis
model
200
5.0% CAGR Universe
150
(median
100 basis)
50
0
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Source: Ambit Capital research; Note: The backtest is based on annual rebalancing with forward-looking returns
being calculated from December 31 of year X to December 31 of year X+1; for example, for the most recent
year, the framework included numbers until FY14 and returns have been calculated from 31 December 2014 to
31 December 2015.
Note that this back-test does not consider accounting or management quality, which
we believe are factors that should improve the performance of our live portfolios.
Thats what the next section of this note focuses on.
Before we delve into this years list of 30 firms that constitute our ten baggers 5.0, the
following two exhibits show the performance of the live ten-baggers portfolio since
January 2012 when we first unveiled this framework. Whilst the BSE500 ten baggers
have managed to outperform the BSE500 Index by ~53% points (on a cumulative
basis) over the last four years, the ten baggers from the sub-BSE500 universe that we
highlighted in the previous three iterations have managed to outperform the BSE
Small-cap Index by a whopping 115% points (on a cumulative basis).
Outperformance for all our live ten-baggers from the BSE500 and the sub-BSE500
universe demonstrates that the construct works in the real world as well.
Exhibit 7: Performance of the BSE500 ten-bagger portfolios (since 19 January 2012)
80
70
60 52.6
50 43.4
Return (%)
40
30
20 9.8
6.7 The live performance of our ten-
10 bagger portfolios has been
- impressive too
(10) 2012 2013 2014 2015
150
115.2
91.9
100
Return (%)
41.4
50
-
2013 2014 2015
(50)
Small-caps tenbagger iteration return BSE Smallcap index return cumulative alpha
We have bottom-up coverage with BUYs on 12 of these names. These are: ITC, PI
Industries, HCL Techn, Page Industries, Finolex Cables, TCS, Tata Motors, Supreme
Industries, Berger Paints, TVS Motor, HUL and Marico.
Exhibit 10: January 2016 ten baggers - Valuation perspective
Blended FY15 and FY16
Mcap Cheap w.r.t. history? Overall cheap on
Sr. No. Ticker Company valuations
(US$ mn) how many counts?
P/E P/B EV/EBITDA P/E P/B EV/EBITDA
Attractive valuations*
1 ITC IN ITC Ltd. 39,216 26.1 7.7 16.8 YES YES YES 3
2 IDEA IN Idea Cellular 7,328 15.3 2.1 5.7 YES YES YES 3
3 HCLT IN HCL Tech. 17,856 16.0 4.5 12.0 YES YES YES 3
4 TCS IN TCS 70,083 22.1 8.3 16.0 YES YES YES 3
5 GPPV IN Gujarat Pipavav 1,142 23.0 3.5 16.3 YES YES YES 3
6 MRF IN MRF 2,579 9.8 2.6 5.4 YES - YES 2
7 TTMT IN Tata Motors 18,462 10.4 2.0 4.4 - YES YES 2
Moderate valuations**
8 TRP IN Torrent Pharma 3,679 24.4 8.3 11.5 - - YES 1
Rich valuations***
9 LPC IN Lupin Ltd. 12,139 35.3 8.5 24.7 - - - -
10 PSYS IN Persistent Systems# 777 17.4 3.5 10.3 - - - -
11 KJC IN Kajaria 1,175 38.8 9.5 19.1 - - - -
12 BRIT IN Britannia# 5,353 47.0 24.4 30.2 - - - -
13 SKB IN GSKConsumer# 4,101 42.9 11.9 30.7 - - - -
14 PI IN PI Industries Ltd. 1,350 32.1 8.6 21.0 - - - -
15 MTCL IN Mindtree# 1,826 21.4 5.6 15.0 - - - -
16 PAG IN Page Industries 2,270 66.0 32.8 38.9 - - - -
17 FNXC IN Finolex Cables 576 19.0 2.9 12.3 - - - -
18 SI IN Supreme Industries 1,314 27.3 6.6 14.5 - - - -
19 BRGR IN Berger Paints 2,742 59.1 13.4 30.3 - - - -
20 EIM IN Eicher Motors# 7,131 61.4 15.8 27.7 - - - -
21 TVSL IN TVS Motor 2,046 38.4 9.4 22.0 - - - -
22 SF IN Sundram Fasteners 520 24.2 4.0 12.1 - - - -
23 AJP IN Ajanta Pharma 1,753 34.2 12.1 22.2 - - - -
24 HTSMF IN Hatsun Agro Products 676 78.5 18.1 17.1 - - - -
25 LOG IN La Opala 514 70.3 16.5 41.2 - - - -
26 HUVR IN Hindustan Unilever 27,900 42.6 44.0 31.5 - - - -
27 VO IN Vinati Organics 360 19.7 5.0 11.2 - - - -
28 MRCO IN Marico Ltd. 4,363 46.1 14.4 28.1 - - - -
29 AIAE IN AIA Engineering# 1,254 19.9 3.8 12.3 - - - -
30 ATLP IN Atul Ltd. 756 19.5 4.4 12.4 - - - -
Source: Bloomberg, Capitaline, Ambit Capital research.
* Trading below five-year average P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA (on at least two of these three measures)
** Trading below either five-year average P/E, five-year P/B or five-year EV/EBITDA (on one of these three measures)
*** Trading above five-year average P/E, P/B and EV/EBITDA
# denotes that the relevant Ambit sector lead has a bottom-up SELL in the name
Note: There are a few stocks that cleared both the greatness and accounting filters but did not make it to the final list of 30 stocks based on our lack of conviction
on the names. These are: Dr Reddys, Aurobindo Pharma, P&G Hygiene, KRBL Ltd, Suven Life sciences, Kaveri Seeds, Welspun India, Relaxo Footwears, Aarti
Industries, Granules India, Aarti Drugs, Arvind, Vardhman textiles, Kitex Garments, Geometric, Metalyst Forgings, Sun Pharma, BPCL, UPL Ltd, Amara Raja,
Hexaware, Tata Elxi, Navneet Education, Alembic Pharma, Ceat, Marksans Pharma, DCM Shriram, Greenply, Tube Investments, Rajesh Exports, Dishman Pharma,
Vakrangee, Bata India, Ratnamani Metals, Wipro
Exhibit 12: January 2016 ten baggers - Forward-looking data using consensus estimates
Mcap 6M ADV FY15-FY18E FY15-FY18E
Sr. No. Ticker Company
(US$ mn) (US$ mn) EPS CAGR BVPS CAGR
Attractive valuations*
1 ITC IN ITC Ltd. 39,216 33.3 11% 11%
2 IDEA IN Idea Cellular 7,328 9.8 -2% 10%
3 HCLT IN HCL Tech. 17,856 24.0 10% 18%
4 TCS IN TCS 70,083 44.4 15% 26%
5 GPPV IN Gujarat Pipavav 1,142 2.4 9% 15%
6 MRF IN MRF 2,579 7.5 0% 17%
7 TTMT IN Tata Motors 18,462 56.0 12% 25%
Moderate valuations**
8 TRP IN Torrent Pharma 3,679 4.5 24% 33%
Rich valuations***
9 LPC IN Lupin Ltd. 12,139 33.3 19% 25%
10 PSYS IN Persistent Systems 777 1.0 12% 15%
11 KJC IN Kajaria 1,175 1.5 24% 24%
12 BRIT IN Britannia Industries Ltd. 5,353 9.6 22% 32%
13 SKB IN GSKConsumer Healthcare Ltd. 4,101 1.3 17% 16%
14 PI IN PI Industries Ltd. 1,350 2.7 25% 28%
15 MTCL IN Mindtree Ltd. 1,826 4.6 16% 20%
16 PAG IN Page Industries 2,270 3.0 27% 32%
17 FNXC IN Finolex Cables 576 0.4 14% 12%
18 SI IN# Supreme Industries 1,314 0.9 15% 16%
19 BRGR IN Berger Paints 2,742 1.1 29% 20%
20 EIM IN Eicher Motors 7,131 19.9 41% 27%
21 TVSL IN TVS Motor 2,046 7.9 32% 28%
22 SF IN# Sundram Fasteners 520 0.3 24% 13%
23 AJP IN Ajanta Pharma 1,753 4.3 25% 35%
24 HTSMF IN# Hatsun Agro Products 676 0.1 80% 25%
25 LOG IN La Opala 514 1.4 32% 28%
26 HUVR IN Hindustan Unilever 27,900 18.3 10% 10%
27 VO IN Vinati Organics 360 0.3 17% 24%
28 MRCO IN Marico Ltd. 4,363 5.3 18% 20%
29 AIAE IN AIA Engineering 1,254 0.9 6% 15%
30 ATLP IN Atul Ltd. 756 1.0 19% 23%
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research; Note: # indicates FY15-17E CAGR
* Trading below five-year average P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA (on at least two of these three measures)
** Trading below either five-year average P/E, five-year P/B or five-year EV/EBITDA (on one of these three measures)
*** Trading above five-year average P/E, P/B and EV/EBITDA
Note that unlike the ten-baggers list for the BSE500 universe (where we only consider
firms that meet the greatness score cut-off of 67% whilst being in the top 6 deciles of
our forensic accounting model), the criteria used to screen for ten baggers from the
sub-BSE500 universe has been made much more stringent. Only firms with a
greatness score above 80% that also fall in the top three deciles on accounting
quality in the sub-BSE500 universe have been included in this list.
On a separate note, if you havent already contacted your Ambit sales representative,
for a forensic check on your portfolio, you might want to do so now. Our forensic
model, refined and tested over five years, is very powerful.
In a difficult year for the Indian equity markets, last years iteration of ten baggers
published on 05 January 2015 has clocked 6% returns in absolute terms and 9%
points relative to the BSE500. This compares with cumulative absolute returns of
109% and relative returns (to BSE500) of 43% points delivered by the first three
iterations (click here for the 19 January 2012 note on ten baggers 1.0 and click here
for the 14 January 2013 note on ten baggers 2.0 and click here for the 26 November
2013 note on ten bagger 3.0). Moreover, the above exhibit also highlights that
beginning-of-the-period valuations have not made much difference to investment
returns, with the stocks categorised as attractively valued, based on initial valuations,
underperforming those classified as richly valued on average. This finding also
emerged from earlier ten bagger iterations. In effect, what our models have shown
time and again is that once you screen rigorously for high quality, there is little
value add in further screening through a demanding valuation filter.
40% R = 0.071
FY05-FY15 share price CAGR
30%
20%
10%
0%
- 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
FY05 price to book
Source: Ambit Capital research; Note: FY04-14 returns here are stock returns relative to Sensex
The value of the R-squared makes the story self-explanatory. A low value for this
parameter indicates that the beginning-period valuations do not play any meaningful
role in explaining stock returns over the next ten years. This holds true for both P/B
and P/E as measures of valuation.
Exhibit 17: Valuation impact on long-term returns - P/E
40% R = 0.0143
FY05-FY15 share price CAGR
30%
20%
10%
0%
- 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
FY05 price to earnings
Source: Ambit Capital research; Note: FY04-14 returns here are stock returns relative to Sensex. Trailing P/E has
been restricted to 100.
80% R = 0.0635
Share price performance
60%
40%
20%
0%
- 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0
-20%
-40%
Trailing Price to Book
Here again, a low R-squared value indicates that the beginning-period P/B does not
influence stock returns in any major way. This holds true for P/E as a measure of
valuation as well.
Exhibit 19: Tenbaggers 4.0: beginning-period P/E and stock returns
80% R = 0.0791
Share price performance
60%
40%
20%
0%
- 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0
-20%
-40%
Trailing Price to Earnings
ITC LTD (ITC IN, BUY) Idea Cellular Ltd (IDEA IN, NOT RATED)
450 250
400 200
350 150
300 100
250
50
200
0
Dec-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Aug-13
Dec-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
Aug-14
Dec-14
Jun-13
Oct-13
Jun-14
Oct-14
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
ITC LTD
IDEA CELLULAR LTD
HCL Technologies Ltd (HCLT IN, BUY) Tata Consultancy Svcs Ltd (TCS IN, BUY)
1,200 3,000
1,000 2,500
800 2,000
600 1,500
400 1,000
200 500
0 0
Dec-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Dec-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
HCL TECHNOLOGIES LTD TATA CONSULTANCY SVCS LTD
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research
MRF Ltd (MRF IN, NOT RATED) Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd (GPPV IN, NOT RATED)
50,000 300
40,000 250
200
30,000
150
20,000
100
10,000 50
0 0
Dec-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research
Tata Motors (TTMT IN, BUY) Atul Ltd (ATLP IN, NOT RATED)
700 2,000
600
500 1,500
400
1,000
300
200 500
100
0 0
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
TATA MOTORS LTD ATUL LTD
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research
Torrent Pharma Ltd (TRP IN, NOT RATED) Lupin Ltd (LPC IN, NOT RATED)
1,800 2,500
1,600
1,400 2,000
1,200
1,000 1,500
800 1,000
600
400 500
200
0 0
Dec-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Dec-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
TORRENT PHARMACEUTICALS LTD LUPIN LTD
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research
Persistent Systems Ltd (PSYS IN, SELL) Kajaria Ceramics Ltd (KJC IN, NOT RATED)
1,000 1,000
800 800
600 600
400 400
200 200
0 0
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Dec-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research
Britannia Industries Ltd (BRIT IN, SELL) Glaxosmithkline Consumer (SKB IN, SELL)
4,000 7,000
3,500 6,000
3,000 5,000
2,500
4,000
2,000
3,000
1,500
1,000 2,000
500 1,000
0 0
Dec-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Dec-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES LTD GLAXOSMITHKLINE CONSUMER HEA
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research
PI Industries Ltd (PI IN, BUY) Mindtree Ltd (MTCL IN, SELL)
800 1,800
700 1,600
600 1,400
500 1,200
1,000
400
800
300 600
200 400
100 200
0 0
Dec-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Dec-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
PI INDUSTRIES LTD MINDTREE LTD
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research
Page Industries Ltd (PAG IN, BUY) Finolex Cables Ltd (FNXC IN, BUY)
18,000 350
16,000 300
14,000
12,000 250
10,000 200
8,000 150
6,000 100
4,000
2,000 50
0 0
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research
Supreme Industries Ltd (SI IN, BUY) Berger Paints India Ltd (BRGR IN, BUY)
800 300
700 250
600
500 200
400 150
300
200 100
100 50
0
0
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
SUPREME INDUSTRIES LTD BERGER PAINTS INDIA LTD
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research
Eicher Motors Ltd (EIM IN, SELL) TVS Motor (TVSL IN, BUY)
25,000 350
300
20,000
250
15,000 200
10,000 150
100
5,000
50
0 0
Dec-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Dec-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
EICHER MOTORS LTD TVS MOTOR CO LTD
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research
Sundram Fasteners (SF IN, NOT RATED) Ajanta Pharma Ltd (AJP IN, NOT RATED)
250 1,800
1,600
200 1,400
1,200
150 1,000
100 800
600
50 400
200
0 0
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research
Hatsun Agro Products Ltd (HTSMF IN, NOT RATED) La Opala Rg Ltd (LOG IN, NOT RATED)
500 700
600
400
500
300 400
200 300
200
100
100
0 0
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
HATSUN AGRO PRODUCTS LTD LA OPALA RG LTD
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research
Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUVR IN, BUY) Vinati Organics Ltd (VO IN, NOT RATED)
1,200 700
1,000 600
800 500
400
600
300
400
200
200 100
0 0
Dec-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
HINDUSTAN UNILEVER LTD VINATI ORGANICS LTD
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research
Marico Ltd (MRCO IN, BUY) AIA Engineering Ltd (AIAE IN, SELL)
500 1,400
1,200
400
1,000
300 800
200 600
400
100
200
0 0
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research
TCPL Packaging Ltd (TCPL IN, NOT RATED) Poly Medicure Ltd (PLM IN, NOT RATED)
800 600
700 500
600
500 400
400 300
300 200
200
100 100
0 0
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
TCPL PACKAGING LTD POLY MEDICURE LTD
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research
Atul Auto Ltd (ATA IN, NOT RATED) Avanti Feeds Ltd (AVNT IN, NOT RATED)
800 800
700 700
600 600
500 500
400 400
300 300
200 200
100 100
0 0
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Jan-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Jan-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
ATUL AUTO LTD AVANTI FEEDS LTD
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research
KPR Mill Ltd (KPR IN, NOT RATED) Fiem Industries Ltd (FIEM IN, NOT RATED)
1,000 1,000
800 800
600 600
400 400
200 200
0 0
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research
Himatsingka Seide Ltd (HSS IN, NOT RATED) Fluidomat Ltd (FDM IN, NOT RATED)
250 350
300
200
250
150 200
100 150
100
50
50
0 0
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
HIMATSINGKA SEIDE LTD FLUIDOMAT LTD
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research
Multibase India Ltd (MUIL IN, NOT RATED) Nucleus Software Exports Ltd (NCS IN, NOT RATED)
350 400
300 350
250 300
250
200
200
150
150
100 100
50 50
0 0
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
MULTIBASE INDIA LTD NUCLEUS SOFTWARE EXPORTS LTD
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research
Addit ional information on reco mme nde d securit ies is available on request .
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Disclosures
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