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Assisting Analyst: On Friday, the markets were in holiday mode, and under low activity the Danish C20 index climbed by
Niels Lykke Sørensen 0.3%. Carlsberg gained 3.8% and outdistanced the other 19 shares whereas William Demant was as on
+ 45 89 89 70 39 Thursday yet again the poorest performer, down by 2.8%.
Niels.Lykke.Soerensen@
jyskebank.dk
On Thursday, Vestas’ giant order of 570 MW was finally confirmed with a resultant increase in the
Translation: share price. Friday was therefore dominated by profit taking, and the share fell back by 0.5% despite a
Translation Services new minor order of 32 MW from Sweden.
The picture was slightly better in the US where the Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices closed up by fair 1%.
Over the day, we saw several releases of accounts in the US. The fast food giant McDonald’s shed 2.1%
following otherwise good Q2 accounts.
Like in Denmark, the markets were also rather flat in the rest of Europe. In Germany, the business
confidence indicator from the IFO institute rose to 106.2 compared with 101.8 last month which is the
largest increase in the 20-year history of the index. This is positive news for the German economy, and
the leading German DAX index closed 0.4% higher on Friday.
Read more equity- The results of the stress tests of Europe’s 91 largest banks were published after the close of the
research reports on European markets. One German, one Greek and five Spanish banks did not pass the test whereas the
www.jyskemarkets.com/ Danish banks passed the test without any problems and in line with anticipations. The EU Commission
and the ECB subsequently assessed that the test leaves a picture of a rather robust European banking
Disclaimer:
Please see the last page
sector.
EQUITIES DAILY
Equity Research • 26 July 2010
In the afternoon at 16.00, we expect to see the release of important data for new home sales in the
US for June. We anticipate an advance of 6.7% following the plunge of 32.7% for May.
From the early morning there are positive prospects for the Danish and the European markets. The
German DAX future is up by 0.6% whereas Nikkei 225 in Japan is up by approx. 0.8%.
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EQUITIES DAILY
Equity Research • 26 July 2010
Banks: Prior to the stress test it was expected that a small number of banks would fail the stress test. The
result was that seven banks were unable to pass the test’s requirement of a core capital ratio of at
least 6% at end-2011 in the worst case scenario. In this connection it is worthy of note that the
present statutory minimum requirement of the core capital is only 4%. The losers of the test were Hypo
Real Estate (Germany), one Greek bank and five Spanish banks. Of these banks only one bank landed
below a core capital ratio of 4%, and this Spanish bank landed at 3.9%. JB: All in all, the test shows that
it takes a very nasty macroeconomic reality before Europe’s large banks get into real trouble.
SAP (BUY): SAP will turn in its Q2 2010 accounts tomorrow before the opening of the European market.
Like several other companies in the IT sector, we anticipate that SAP will have benefited from the
rising willingness to invest among business customers. We project growth in the sale of new licences
of 8% and in maintenance sales of 10%. We also anticipate that operating earnings will grow by 10%.
This results in an anticipated EBIT margin of 29% - an improvement of 1.3 percentage points y/y
boosted by higher sales and tight cost management. Up to the release of the accounts, we restate our
BUY recommendation for SAP based on the prospects of rising licence growth over the coming quarters
and a sluggish improvement of the EBIT margin.
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EQUITIES DAILY
Equity Research • 26 July 2010
420 10.600
415
10.400
410
405 10.200
400
395 10.000
390
9.800
385
380 9.600
375
9.400
370
365 9.200
1120,0
9.900
1100,0 9.800
9.700
1080,0
9.600
1060,0 9.500
9.400
1040,0
9.300
1020,0 9.200
9.100
1000,0
9.000
980,0 8.900
8.800
6300,0 80
6200,0 78
6100,0
76
6000,0
74
5900,0
72
5800,0
5700,0 70
5600,0 68
Switch recommendation
Jyske Bank recommends the following switches:
From Genmab (REDUCE) to NeuroSearch (BUY).
From D/S Norden (REDUCE) and Torm (REDUCE) to A.P. Møller-Mærsk (ACCUMULATE)
From William Demant (REDUCE) and GN Great Nordic (REDUCE) to Coloplast (ACCUMULATE)
From Pfizer (SELL) to Sanofi-Aventis (BUY)
From Novo Nordisk (REDUCE) to Sanofi-Aventis (BUY) and Novozymes (BUY)
From FLSmidth (REDUCE) to NKT Holding (BUY)
From Nordea (REDUCE) to Danske Bank (BUY)
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EQUITIES DAILY
Equity Research • 26 July 2010
Macroeconomic events
Time Event
US
16:00 USD New home sales
European
09:30 SEK Trade balance
Asian and others
01:50 JPY Trade balance
Exports
Imports
Yours faithfully,
JYSKE MARKETS
Jyske Bank
Equities
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EQUITIES DAILY
Equity Research • 26 July 2010
Jyske Bank's analysts are subject to the recommendations of The Danish Securities Dealers Association on the handling of conflicts of interest in investment
banks.
The research report is based on information which Jyske Bank finds reliable, but Jyske Bank does not assume any responsibility for the correctness of the material
nor for transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the report. The estimates and recommendations of the research report may be
changed without notice. The report is for the personal use of Jyske Bank's customers and may not be copied.
Conflicss of interest
Jyske Bank has prepared procedures to prevent and preclude conflicts of interest thus ensuring that research reports are being prepared in an objective manner.
These procedures have been incorporated in the business procedures covering the research activities of Jyske Markets, a business unit of Jyske Bank.
Moreover, equity analysts at Jyske Bank cannot trade in companies and papers for which they prepare research reports. Jyske Bank may, however, hold positions,
have interests in or business relations with the companies that are analysed. The research report has not been presented to the company prior to its release. The
analysts receive no payment from persons interested in individual research reports.
Allocation of recommendations, Danish shares (number) Allocation of recommendations, all shares (number)
14 20
12
10 15
8
10
6
4 5
2
0 0
Buy Accumulate Neutral Reduce Sell Buy Accumulate Neutral Reduce Sell
Risk
Investment in this share is associated with a risk. Movements in the equity market, the sector and/or news flows, etc. regarding the company may affect the
price of the share. See the front page of the research report for our view of the risk associated with the share. The risk factors stated and/or calculations of
sensitivities in the research report are not to be considered all-encompassing. If the share is traded in a currency other than the investor’s base currency, the
investor accepts an FX risk. In connection with an ADR or similar papers, the FX risk exists relative to the currency in which the underlying share trades.
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EQUITIES DAILY
Equity Research • 26 July 2010
Since our recommendations are relative and risk-adjusted, it is possible to compare our recommendations across sectors and risk categories. In addition, the
potential is stated in absolute terms via our price target. It should be borne in mind, however, that the recommendation is the anchor. A BUY recommendation is
a BUY recommendation until the recommendation has been changed, also in the event that price increases have taken the price "too close" to the price target.
The future and historical returns estimated in the research report are stated as returns before costs since returns after costs depend on a number of factors
relating to individual customer relations, custodian charges, volume of trade as well as market-, currency- and product-specific factors. It is not certain that the
share will yield the stated expected future return/s. The stated expected future returns exclusively express our best assessment.