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Front. Energy
DOI 10.1007/s11708-016-0413-y
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Foued CHABANE, Noureddine MOUMMI, Abdelhad BRIMA, Abdelhad MOUMMI
Prediction of the theoretical and semi-empirical model of
ambient temperature
Higher Education Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2016
Abstract It is well known that the ambient temperature is
a sensitive parameter which has a great effect on biology,
technology, geology and even on human behavior. A
prediction is a statement about an uncertain event. It is
often, but not always, based upon experience or knowl-
edge. Although guaranteed accurate information about the
future is in many cases impossible, prediction can be useful
to assist in making plans about possible developments. As
a result, temperature proles can be developed which
accurately represent the expected ambient temperature
exposure that this environment experiences during mea-
surement. The ambient temperature over time is modeled
based on the previous Tmin and Tmax data and using a
Lagrange interpolation. To observe the comprehensive
variation of ambient temperature the prole must be
determined numerically. The model proposed in this paper
can provide an acceptable way to measure the change in
ambient temperature.
Keywords ambient temperature, environment, correla-
tion, theoretical model, semi-empirical
1 Introduction
There are numerous methods for developing ambient
temperature proles. They range from empirical analyses,
where the distribution lanes are mapped and monitored for
temperature data and other relevant environmental to
theoretical models, where the rationale is determined based
on geography, history weather data, or other general
information about the distribution environment. Proles
may differ as a result of geography. Currently, there is no
Received September 23, 2015; accepted January 14, 2016
Foued CHABANE ( ), Noureddine MOUMMI, Abdelhad BRIMA,
Abdelhad MOUMMI
Mechanical Department, Mechanical Engineering Laboratory (LGM),
Faculty of Technology, University of Biskra, Biskra 07000, Algeria
E-mail: fouedmeca@hotmail.fr
standard for the development of ambient temperature
proles. Ma et al. [1] have consecrated the effects of
crosswind speed or ambient temperature on the perfor-
mance of the indirect dry cooling system similar under
different unit loads. They have used the outlet water
temperature of the tower with ambient temperature and
crosswind under full load conditions.
Borinaga-Trevio et al. [2] have described a new method
to analyze and to mitigate the ambient temperature
inuence on the registered uid temperature of a thermal
response test (TRT) using the method based on two
parameter equations to take the inuence of the ambient
temperature degree and the period of time which effect the
registered uid temperature. The parameters have been
determined by minimizing the time dependent thermal
conductivity oscillation. For that purpose, two different
TRTs have been analyzed, one with equipment only
insulated against solar radiation and the other with another
enhanced insulation testing machine. For both tests
performed, the inuence of the ambient temperature on
the heat injected has been analyzed, as well as its inuence
on the mean uid temperature and the consequent thermal
conductivity variation.
Firmanda Al Riza et al. [3] have predicted the hourly
solar radiation data by both using a decision matrix from
measured RH and ambient temperature data and by using a
RH-clearness index, clearness index-beam atmospheric
transmission and beam atmospheric transmission-RH
correlation. The result shows that both methods perform
well. Hamrouni et al. [4] have studied the inuence of the
solar radiation and ambient temperature variation on the
performance of a standalone photovoltaic pumping system
which composed of a PV generator, DC-DC adaptor, DC-
AC inverter and an immersed group motor-pump.
Sanusi et al. [5] have captured the effect of ambient
temperature on the performance of an amorphous silicon
photovoltaic system (ASPS) in Ogbomoso, a tropical area
in Nigeria by monitoring the variation in the power output
of the system with ambient temperature of the area from
2006 to 2008. Some researchers have discussed the effect
2 Front. Energy

of temperature and light on the growth of algae species [6]. cosss tanLtan: (3)
They conclude that the wavelengths of blue and red light
are sensitive. Other studies have indicated the interactive Since the hour angle at local solar noon is 0, with each
effects of resin formulation and ambient temperature of 15 of longitude equivalent to 1h, the sunrise and sunset
cure on the percentage conversion, molar heat of cure, time in hours from local solar noon is then
surface hardness and depth of cure of selected bonding ss
agents. It has been found that when increasing ambient tss 12 : (4)
15
temperature of cure, the percentage conversion increases in
The hour angle wss at sunset is the opposite of the hour
all resins [7]. Human behaviors are closely related to the
angle at sunrise, so wss =wsr and the duration of the day is
variation of ambient temperature. Some studies have
discussed the effect of ambient temperature on gross- sr
tsr 12 , (5)
efciency in cycling, and have concluded that the 15
temperature-induced changes in gross-efciency could
account for about half of the well-established performance ss
t 2  : (6)
decrements during time trial exercise in the heat [8]. Some 15
researchers have used the ambient temperature as inlet of
solar collector. Therefore, it can be concluded that ambient
temperature has a great effect on the thermal efciency of 3 Validation models
solar collectors [918].
Generally, the weather stations give the minimum and
maximum values recorded on the day in question. This is
2 Modeling ambient temperature not sufcient to follow the change, especially as much heat
transfer phenomena are related thereto.
In most cases, the ambient temperature is taken as the Ambient temperature is closely linked to the radiant
average value. Its evolution from sunrise to sunset is temperature of the sky (sky temperature). This would have
marked by minimum values at sunrise and sunset and a an inuence. Indeed, for the sites located in altitudes, heat
maximum value in the middle of the day. These are the losses must be considered. The equivalent temperature of
only values given by weather stations. Modeling the the ambient air can be calculated from [20]
temperature of the air is generally used as heat transfer
uid in the solar collectors, which is of paramount Tam  hcve Tsky  hrve
Teq , (7)
importance. Hve
where hcve is the coefcient of thermal convection losses
2.1 Declination (d)
between the front of the sensor and the external
environment, and hrve is the coefcient of thermal losses
The declination (d, in degrees), for any day of the year (N)
by radiation between the front of the sensor and the
can be calculated approximately by [19]
external environment.


360
23:45sin 284 N : (1) 3.1 Theoretical model
365
The theoretical change in ambient temperature can be
2.2 Hour angle (w) modeled by
Tmax Tmin
The hour angle (), of a point on the earths surface is Te t
dened as the angle through which the earth would turn to 2
bring the meridian of the point directly under the sun. The


Tmax Tmin 2 AST
hour angle can also be obtained from the apparent solar cos : (8)
2 t
time (AST); i.e., the corrected local solar time is [19]
In this model, the maximum temperature is reached at
15AST 12: (2)
true solar noon when the ux density is a maximum. This
model does not correspond to reality as it is considered that
2.3 Sunrise and sunset times and day length the maximum temperature reaches thermal solar noon
corresponding to the solar midday instant real temperature
The sun is said to rise and set when the solar altitude angle plus 1/8 of the length of the solar day (Dt) [21]. This is
is 0. So, the hour angle at sunset, wss, can be found to be w mainly caused by the thermal inertia of the soil, the thermal
when h = 0 [19]: equilibrium between the ambient medium and the ground.
 Foued CHABANE et al. Model of ambient temperature 3

3.2 Model corrected [20] is the approximation of a complicated function of a simple

function. Suppose the function is known, it is too complex
The theoretical model is replaced with a model that to evaluate efciently. Then a few known data points could
introduced the notion of thermal solar midday where the be picked from the complicated function, creating a lookup
temperature reaches its maximum value. Given the table, and attempt can be made to interpolate those data
nocturnal radiative exchanges, the ambient temperature points to construct a simpler function.
reaches its minimum value at sunrise to sunset, and nally,
in this model the ambient temperature is taken as the 4.1 Lagrange base
average temperature. And room temperature can be
modeled by Polynomial interpolation involves nding a polynomial of
order n that passes through the n + 1 points. One of the
Tmax Tmin
Te t methods to nd this polynomial is called Lagrangian
2 interpolation. Other methods include the direct method and
0
1 the Newtons divided difference polynomial method.
t

 2 AST 12 Lagrangian interpolating polynomial [23] is given by
Tmax Tmin B 8 C
cosB
@
C: (9)
A
2 t X
n
fn t Li tf ti , (11)
i0

where n in f(x) stands for the nth order polynomial that

3.3 Idliman model [22]
approximates the function y = f(x) given at (n 1) data
points as (x0, y0), (x1, y1),, (xn 1, yn 1), (xn, yn). Li(x) is a
In this model, the ambient temperature is evaluated by
weighting function that includes a product of (1-n) terms
 
Tab T1 T2 cos 14 AST=12 273:15, (10) with terms of j = i omitted. The application would be clear
using an example.
with T1 = (Tmax + Tmin)/2 and T2 = (Tmax Tmin)/2, Tmax Based on this principle, the variation of the ambient
and Tmin are the maximum and minimum ambient temperature with time is modeled as
temperatures during the day. Tss
Tam AST,  AST  AST,
2
3.4 Proposed theoretical model
 Tsm : (12)
The ambient temperature over time is modeled based on
The values  , and are expressed as
the temperature of sunset Tss and the temperature of sunrise
Tsr previously which means the duration of the light days,
2  
15
using a Lagrange interpolation which can be expressed as  AST tss   ,
ss 15
listed in Table 1.
Table 1 Data of an interpolation between Tam and AST AST tsr
0:5 ,
Sunset Solar midday Sunrise AST tss
Y = Tam (C) Tss Tsm Tsr
X = AST (h) tss tsm tsr

2
15
  AST tss AST tsr :
60 ss
4 Principle of Lagrange interpolation [23] When AST is equal to tss, it implies that the ambient
temperature is equal to Tss.
In the mathematical subeld of numerical analysis, This model is used to calculate the ambient temperature
interpolation is a method of constructing new data points between sunset and sunrise, which means at daytime.
from a discrete set of known data points.
In engineering and science, a lot has a number of data 4.2 Proposed semi-empirical correlation
points, as obtained by sampling or experiment, and tries to
construct a function which closely ts those data points. At this time, an attempt is made to model the relationship
This is called curve tting or regression analysis. between the ambient temperature and the minimum and
Interpolation is a specic case of curve tting, in which maximum temperatures corresponding to all hours of the
the function must go exactly through the data points. A day. Then the semi-empirical correlation can be proposed
different problem which is closely related to interpolation as
4 Front. Energy

r


AST Xc 2
Tam Y0 97:275= wXc exp 2  : (13)
2 wXc
The constants Y0, Xc and w are written as ambient temperature is between 19C in February and

 17C in January. For the spring season, the temperature is
Tmax Tmin
Y0 0:369 0:854  , increased by 13C than that of winter, and is between
2 33C in May and 23C in April. The height, ambient
temperature is selected in the summer season that reaches
r 0:86993, (14) its value of 43.5C in July and low ambient temperature is
38C in August. In the fall season, the temperature is
Xc 12:34 0:328  Tmax Tmin , (15) between 33C in September and 24C in November.

wXc 97334:6 23517:399Xc 5.1 Change in ambient temperature

2127:83Xc2 85:438Xc3 1:2845Xc4 : (16) The thermal conversion of solar energy for applications
such as drying food products or space heating is based on
Table 2 shows the results of the constants corresponding the solar collectors using air as the coolant. The air at the
to the semi-empirical correlation for each month. It is inlet of these systems is that of the ambient medium.
known that each month it is determined by a maximum and Typically, weather stations provide only the minimum and
a minimum ambient temperature. maximum values, which is not sufcient to follow the
change from sunrise to sunset. This does not reect reality
and affects the accuracy of the results. The model proposed
5 Results and discussion in this paper describes an acceptable way as a function of
ambient temperature Tmax and Tmin. It can be expressed as
Tmin
These data measured at Biskra, Algeria show that the Tam     Tmax :
region is characterized by high temperatures with strong 2
seasonal variations in July and January, as illustrated in Other models encountered in the analysis related to the
Fig. 1. ambient temperature are also simulated. The results are
Figures 2 to 5 show the variations in ambient compared and shown in Figs. 6 to 9.
temperature as a function of true solar time. The prole Note that there is a considerable gap between the values
of the ambient temperature has been illustrated from given by each model, especially early in the day as
proposed correlation, and its effect depends on the displayed in Figs. 6 to 9. The solar midday models give
maximum and minimum temperatures which are demon- more or less similar values. The proposed theoretical
strated in Figs. 2 to 5. For the early season that begins with model is in perfect agreement with that proposed by
the winter season are December, January and February, the Idliman.
Table 2 Constants of correlation
Month Y0 w Xc Tmax Tmin Tmax Tmin Tmax Tmin Adj. R-Square
2
Jan. 9.86 7.68 15.45 17.5 6.5 11 12 0.9730
Feb. 13.57 7.076 15.74 17 5 12 11 0.8974
Mar. 13.25 14.94 14.94 22.5 10 12.5 16.25 0.9510
Apr. 18.29 8.87 16.77 27 15 12 21 0.9419
May 19.45 8.06 17.66 32.5 16.5 16 24.5 0.9196
Jun. 24.86 9.26 16.58 40 27.5 12.5 33.75 0.8419
Jul. 30.44 7.42 18.13 43 29 14 36 0.8584
Aug. 31.82 6.93 17.12 42.5 28.5 14 35.5 0.7597
Sep. 29.68 7.025 15.5 35 22.5 12.5 28.75 0.7597
Oct. 18.39 6.85 17.33 30 20 10 25 0.8983
Nov. 13.72 9.93 16.32 24 13 11 18.5 0.9144
Dec. 6.88 7.39 14.93 17.5 7.5 10 12.5 0.9645
 Foued CHABANE et al. Model of ambient temperature 5

Fig. 1 Ambient temperature prole as a function of months Fig. 4 Ambient temperature of an autumn period (2015/09, 10
(2014) and 11)

Fig. 2 Ambient temperature of a spring period (2015/03, 04 and Fig. 5 Ambient temperature of a winter period (2015/12, 2016/
05) 01 and 02)

Fig. 3 Ambient temperature of a summer period (2015/06, 07 Fig. 6 Ambient temperature, comparison of different models
and 08) (winterJanuary)
6 Front. Energy
Fig. 7 Ambient temperature, comparison of different models
(springApril )
Fig. 8 Ambient temperature, comparison of different models
(summerJuly)
Fig. 9 Ambient temperature, comparison of different models
(autumnOctober)
5.2 Experimental and simulated evolution of ambient
temperature
Figures 10 to 13 show a comparison between the daily
variation of the experimental and ambient temperatures
after the proposed model.
Fig. 10 Variation of ambient temperature between an experi-
mental and the semi-empirical model (January)
Fig. 11 Variation of ambient temperature between an experi-
mental and the semi-empirical model (April)
The examination of these curves indicates that the
proposed model translated satisfactorily the variation of the
ambient temperature and that this model can be adopted to
predict the change in ambient temperature.
Figure 14 shows a variation of ambient temperature
measurement experimentally at a site in Biskra, Algeria.
The tests were conducted in a period extending from
January to December 2014 at the University of Biskra
(34.8 N, 5.73 E). This region is characterized by a dry
climate in summer. The tests were performed in clear days,
free of disturbances (clouds).
Figure 15 shows the theoretical calculation of ambient
 Foued CHABANE et al. Model of ambient temperature
Fig. 12 Variation of ambient temperature between an experi-
mental and the semi-empirical model (July)
Fig. 13 Variation of ambient temperature between an experi-
mental and the semi-empirical model (November)
Fig. 14 Experiment measurements of ambient temperature for
one year
7
temperature for one year as a function of AST. The higher
evolution has shown in July with a value estimated by a
maximum pick of ambient temperature of 42C at 16:00,
and the lower evolution in February with a value estimated
by a maximum pick of ambient temperature of 18C at
16:00.
Fig. 15 Theoretical calculation of ambient temperature for one
year
Figure 16 represents the relative errors of ambient
temperature for each month of the year. A maximum
relative error was selected in February and December
estimated by 15% to 25%, and a minimum value between
2% and 10%, corresponding to experimental measure-
ments and the value calculated by the semi-empirical
model.
Fig. 16 Ambient temperature of relative error
Figure 17 represents an absolute error of ambient
temperature for each month of the year. A maximum
absolute error was selected in February and December
estimated by 2.8 to 5, and a minimum value between 0.8 to
2, corresponding to experimental measurements and the
value calculated by the semi-empirical model.
8 Front. Energy
Fig. 17 Ambient temperature of absolute error
6 Conclusions
In this paper, prediction of ambient temperature was made
by theoretical test, and mathematical logic was used to set
the ambient temperature prole. A comparison was made
between the theoretical models proposed in literature. Note
that there is a considerable gap between the values given
by each model, especially at the beginning of the day. The
solar midday models give more or less similar values. The
proposed model is in perfect agreement with that proposed
by Idliman.
The data provided are used to assist the modeling and
dening of a good mathematical model. From the results
obtained, it can be noted that the ambient temperature
prole made by the semi-empirical model proposed in this
paper is the most approximate to that of the experimental
data.
Acknowledgements The authors also wish to thank all members from
laboratoire de gnie mcanique (LGM) Group of University of Biskra.
Notations
AST: the apparent solar time/h
hcve: the coefcient of thermal convection losses between the front of the
sensor and the external environment/(W$km2)
hrve: the coefcient of thermal losses by radiation between the front of the
sensor and the external environment/(W$km2)
Hve : coefcient of thermal equivalent/(W$km2)
L: the solar altitude angle/( )
N: number day of the year
tsr : the sunrise time/h
tss : the sunset time/h
Dt: duration of the day/h
Tmax and Tmin: maximum and minimum ambient temperatures during the day/
C Science and Engineering Investigations, 2012, 1(9): 6165
Tsky : sky temperature/C
Tam: ambient temperature /C
Teq : equivalent temperature/C
Tss : the sunset of ambient temperature/C
Tsm : solar midday of ambient temperature/C
Tsr : the sunrise of ambient temperature/C
Y0, Xc and w : constants
d: the declination/( )
, and : the constants with relationship by tss, tsr, wss and AST
w: hour angle/( )
wss : the hour angle at sunset/( )
wsr : the hour angle at sunrise/( )
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