ISVEE/546

Deterministic scenario tree modeling in estimate of the costs of brucellosis in dairy

cattle in the north-western region of Bosnia and Herzegovina

Seric-Haracic S (1), Fejzic N (1), Salman MD (2)

(1)Veterinary faculty, University of Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina (2)Animal

Health Population Institute, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, USA

Planning and implementation of current animal disease surveillance in Bosnia

and Herzegovina is based primarily on an outdated and centrally planned
approach that does not incorporate efficient economic or epidemiological decision
making tools. As a result, bovine brucellosis has become endemic in this country
during recent decades despite the existence of an ongoing test and slaughter
control program.

The aim of this study was to estimate the annual cost of brucellosis to the dairy
cattle industry in the northwestern region of Bosnia and Herzegovina. This
region was selected partly because of its position as the leader in dairy
production for the country. A scenario tree model was used to represent
detection and control activities in a defined animal population during a one year
period. Data were obtained during 2007 and included dairy cattle demographics,
disease distribution and frequency, sampling frequency, laboratory testing
protocols and control measures implemented. Sources of data included a study
questionnaire, laboratory reports from the regional veterinary laboratory, the
national animal disease data base, published scientific papers and expert
opinion. Since the model was deterministic, only average or estimated most
likely input probabilities were considered. However, in validating the model, we
used estimated minimums and maximums or, where appropriate, 95%
confidence interval boundaries. Population strata falling within various ending
scenarios were determined using output proportions of the model which were
then related to associated costs. The following costs were considered: cost of
sampling and testing, cost of removal of diseased animals, including
compensation to farmers, wasted feed, labor, lost milk production, loss of calf
and reproductive disorders associated with the disease. The final costs were
classified as detection costs, control costs and production losses.

The costs of disease detection increased with an increase in the population

covered during annual testing campaigns and was not significantly affected by
changes in disease prevalence. Control costs corresponded directly to both an
increase in disease prevalence and to an increase in the number of animals
tested. Even though bovine brucellosis is considered important because of its
influence on human health, production losses were also significant. A 5%
prevalence in the investigated region resulted in over half a million Euros in
production losses per year. In the end, other socio-economic implications need to
be considered along with the direct costs. This should be accomplished at the
national level, in order to fully evaluate the costs of the disease and to facilitate
scientifically based decisions on alternative detection and control strategies.