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Marine Policy 32 (2008) 845855


www.elsevier.com/locate/marpol

What do we know about the labour market for seafarers?


A view from the UK
David Glen
Centre for International Transport Management, London Metropolitan Business School, London Metropolitan University,
84 Moorgate, London EC2 M 6SQ, UK
Received 25 September 2007; received in revised form 17 December 2007; accepted 18 December 2007

Abstract

This paper considers the evidence that exists on the global demand and supply of seafarers, and their age proles. New information on
the age proles of deck and engine ofcers is presented, drawn from records held by the UK Maritime and Coastguard Agency. Detailed
age proles for certain countries are constructed and compared with that of the UK, as well as with estimates published elsewhere. Using
the data derived from the MCA, it is shown that there is a signicant positive correlation between the age proles of seafarer supplying
countries and their level of economic development, as measured by GDP per capita. This evidence is consistent with the view that the
future supply of seafaring ofcers will increasingly be oriented towards countries at lower levels of development, as the existing pool of
highly qualied ofcers from traditional maritime countries continues to diminish.
r 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Seafarer numbers; Seafarer age proles; Future seafarer supply

1. Introduction expected to stimulate the demand for seafarers, but this


simple relationship has to be modied to allow for the
The manning of the world eet is the raison detre of changing employment needs for each vessel, whilst the
seafaring activity. It creates the demand for seafarers, increased technological sophistication of the vessels over
which is derived (just as the demand for the ships time has transformed the nature of the seafarers jobs at
themselves) from the demand for transportation services. sea. In many nations, the supply of seafarers to serve the
In a sense, both ships and seafarers are inputs that are national eet is only a small proportion of the supply
jointly demanded to generate the transport service. The provided to the world as a whole, whilst in others, the
driving force for ships, the principal employer of seafarers, nationally owned eet is served by a mix of seafarers of
is of course the growth in world trade and economic several nationalities. Seafaring is a truly global, multi-
activity. The demand for seafarers is directly proportional national and multi-cultural occupation.
to the number of ships that constitute the worlds eet,
together with the national and international rules that
determine how those ships may be legally operated. The 2. What is a seafarer?
rules include regulations that cover working conditions,
employment rights, manning agreements, training, quali- The seafarers occupation can be segregated by skill/
cations, and wages. In many countries, the demand for qualication level, and by departments onboard ship, e.g.
seafarers, if measured in terms of the needs of the national deck, engine. The competencies needed to obtain a given
eet, has been in decline, while non-national eets have qualication have been embodied in STCW95, which
grown. The overall growth in the world eet might be came into force on 1 February 2002. This International
Maritime Organisation (IMO) Convention regulates the
Tel.: +44 207 320 1605. Standards of Training, Certication and Watchkeeping
E-mail address: d.glen@londonmet.ac.uk that all member countries are required to achieve in their

0308-597X/$ - see front matter r 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2007.12.006
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846 D. Glen / Marine Policy 32 (2008) 845855

national administrations (STCW95). It supersedes an possible to obtain information on ofcer numbers using
earlier convention, rst introduced in 1978 (STCW78). certication as a proxy. Thus, estimates of the global
General workers are represented by ratings, who are market for ofcers and ratings can be obtained.
relatively unskilled and have less training than the ofcers. Seafaring activity can also be viewed from a domestic or
Trainee ofcers, or cadets, provide a necessary new input a global viewpoint. The shipping industry is often cited as
into the industry. The training period for cadets varies, but an example of a globalised industry, as well as being an
generally takes 3 or 4 years before the trainee obtains the instrument for globalisation. Does this mean all seafarers,
most junior certicate. There are two principal ofcer however dened, are global? How are we to dene a
classications, deck and engineer. The former train to global seafarer? Researchers at the Seafarers International
operate and direct the vessel, whilst the latter train to Research Centre (SIRC) [2] have suggested the following
manage and maintain the engines and other equipment distinction: a seafarer is global if he works on a vessel that
vital to the safe operation. In addition, there are a number is benecially owned by overseas companies. In other
of other ofcer departments, such as radio ofcers, pursers words, if the ship on which he works is directed by a
or hotel managers (these are limited to cruise ships); but the company with a different national base, the seafarer is
most signicant are the deck and engineer. So, a seafarer is global. This is on the face of it, quite plausible, but can lead
either a rating, a cadet, or an ofcer. to problems. For example, if an Italian company enters the
However, measuring the number of seafarers involved in UK market and runs a ferry service from Dover to Calais,
the industry requires a little more consideration. The does this mean the UK rating employed thereon is a global
occupation is peripatetic by nature, because of its seafarer? He will probably work a daily shift on the vessel
characteristics. First, it is an occupation with very high and be resident in the UK, able to enjoy some home life.
spatial mobility. Second, it is relatively easy to enter and The idea of global could also be used implicitly for deep-
exit at the lower skills level. Third, the work pattern means sea trades, when a seafarer spends a signicant part of
that seafarers may spend extended periods of time on his life living, as well as working, onboard. The SIRC
shore, between assignments to ships. Fourth, there are a denition does however capture the concept of the
number of land-based posts that, in effect, support the internationalisation of shipping labour force, and is a
activities of both ships and crew at seathese workers are similar approach to that employed by BIMCO/ISF (Baltic
included in the seafaring industry, but are not seafarers. International Maritime Council/International Shipping
Li and Wonham [1] have put forward a useful set of Federation) when they dene surplus seafarers in a
criteria for measuring seafarer numbers, it is as follows: national context.

(1) The number of seafarers at work (or the number at risk 3. Estimating global seafarer numbers
for safety studies) is the number of crew actually
working onboard the world eet at any given time. There are two different approaches to developing
(2) The number of posts for seafarers is the minimum knowledge of seafarers, the rst employed by SIRC, the
personnel required to operate the ship safely, according second by BIMCO/ISF [3] and the International Labour
to technical, managerial and legal requirements. Organisation (ILO) [4]. SIRC has developed a global
(3) Seafarer numbers are dened by the number of people seafarers database, based on detailed information derived
who maintain an employment contract with shipping from crew list returns, sampled from a number of major
companies or ship operators or via crew manning seaports worldwide. The database was started in 1993, and
agencies; they include all those onboard, plus those by denition will record only active seafarers, for obvious
who are on leave or ill. reasons. This was estimated to cover 17% of the worlds
(4) Active seafarers are those who are qualied through eet by number, 20% by gross tonnage [2]. They estimate
the holding of a recognised seafarers identication and that 68% of the worlds seafarers are global, with this
record book, who are either employed or looking for percentage varying between economic areas. They also
jobs at sea, but excluding those who are qualied but argue that the supply of global seafarers, as contrasted
not seeking to work onboard ship. with all seafarers, is heavily driven by Asia (65%) and the
(5) Qualied seafarers are those who hold a recognised transition economies (26%), leaving a meagre 5% for the
certicate of competency. Advanced countries. Note that this approach gives useful
information on age and qualication proles, gender split
These distinctions are quite useful, because two can be and deployment dispositions by ship type, but it does not
directly related to the demand and supply of seafarers. provide an estimate of the total numbers. This is because of
Category 2 can be used to directly measure the demand for the nature of the sampling approach. Unless all seaports
seafarers, because the number, type and age of the world return complete crew lists to SIRC in a given period of
eet are relatively well known. Knowledge of the eet can time, the full population is not recorded. In order to gross
be used to estimate the demand for seafarers. Despite up the SIRC data to the full population, the total gure for
excluding ratings (whose qualications do not require seafarers is required. An estimate could be obtained using
revalidation), category 5 is also important, because it is the SIRC sample calculating average crew sizes for ship
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D. Glen / Marine Policy 32 (2008) 845855 847

types, and then scaling up using the Lloyds Fairplay 332,000 in 2000). The principal countries that supply
database of the worlds ships. But this is the approach ofcer and ratings are China (PRC) (122,000), Philippines
developed by the IER at Warwick University for BIMCO/ (120,000), Turkey (82,000), Ukraine, (65,000), Russia,
ISF [3]. (56,000), India, (55,000), and Indonesia, (42,000) [3].
Their approach is two pronged. On the demand side, How do these gures compare with the data from SIRC?
they estimate numbers by modelling the worlds ship stock Whilst it is not possible to arrive at independent estimates
in terms of ship type, size range, vintage and registry in of totals, it is possible to compare the estimated propor-
order to calculate the number of ofcers and ratings that tions of the supplying countries as estimated by SIRC and
are required for safe operation of these vessels. On the BIMCO/ISF. The results are quite interesting (Table 2).
supply side, data from shipowners associations, major A number of countries supplying between 1% and 2%
administrations and seafarers unions are collated to appear in the BIMCO/ISF list but do not gure in the
estimate the supply of ofcers, trainees and ratings on a SIRC data. These include Egypt (1.85%), Italy and Latvia.
national basis. This information was collected by two Rankings aside, the same countries do appear in these
questionnaires and interviews with selected industry tables. One oddity is Turkey: on ofcial gures, they would
leaders. The collection of data from maritime administra- have 6.94% of the worlds seafarers, according to BIMCO/
tions was also adopted by the ILO in 2001. ISF. Indeed, careful reading of the 2005 report shows that
BIMCO/ISF estimated the total supply of seafarers in the gures supplied to the researchers have been adjusted
the year 2005 as 1.187 million, with 466,000 ofcers and by an activity ratio, of 50% for its ratings gures.
721,000 ratings [3]. Selected suppliers of seafaring labour Which leads to the questionjust how reliable are the
are shown in Table 1. gures? Leggate [4] reported the results of an ILO
According to BIMCO/ISF, the main supplying countries questionnaire that received responses from 38 states.
are the OECD group with 133,000 ofcers and 174,000 Comparison of the numbers with BIMCO/ISF estimates
ratings (147,000 and 191,000 in 2000), and the Far East for 2000 make chilling reading. For example, China is
with 133,000 ofcers and 226,000 ratings (128,000 and estimated to have 340,000 seafarers compared to 82,017;
Korea, 65,038 compared to 16,488; Malaysia, 61,830
compared to 12,671. The total for the respondents was
Table 1 997,803 against BIMCOs 455,583. She noted that many of
Estimated seafarer supply for selected countries, 2005 the gures supplied were estimates, rather than being
Country Ofcers Ratings Total in Total in Total in derived from well-maintained records. Li and Wonham [1]
2005 2000 1995 have argued that the BIMCO/ISF 1995 estimates for China
were well below those estimated by Chinese researchers,
China 42,704 79,504 122,208 82,017 76,482
whose gure was 330,000. This is line with the ILO
Philippines 46,359 74,040 120,399 230,000 244,782
Turkey 22,091 60,328 82,419 62,447 80,000 estimate reported earlier.
Ukraine 28,906 36,119 65,025 37,000 38,000 The BIMCO/ISF studies have also emphasised that
Russia 21,680 34,000 55,680 55,680 47,688 estimates of the number of seafarers are imprecise.
India 11,700 43,000 54,700 54,700 53,000 Differences of the order of 500010,000 were viewed as
Indonesia 7750 34,000 41,750 83,500 83,500
being insignicant, unless supported by other evidence [5].
Greece 17,000 15,000 32,000 32,500 40,000
Italy 9560 11,390 20,950 23,500 32,300
Japan 12,968 6856 19,824 31,013 42,537 4. Global demand and supply
Total 220,718 394,237 614,955 692,357 738,109
The most widely quoted estimates of the developments in
Source: Ref. [3, pp. 4952]; Ref. [5, Annex A]. demand and supply come from the studies commissioned

Table 2
Relative proportions of seafarers in SIRC and BIMCO/ISF estimates

SIRC National % Global % BIMCO

1. Philippines 27,303 29.10 1. Philippines 25,803 42.00 10.14


2. Russia 6585 7.02 2. Ukraine 4517 7.35 4.69
3. Ukraine 6144 6.55 3. India 4172 6.79 5.48
4. China (PRC) 6013 6.41 4. China (PRC) 3002 4.89 10.29
5. India 4893 5.22 5. Poland 2947 4.80 4.61
6. Poland 3398 3.62 6. Russia 2891 4.71 1.34
7. Indonesia 3112 3.32 7. Indonesia 2445 3.98 3.52
8. Greece 2721 2.90 8. Myanmar 1868 3.04 2.69
9. Turkey 2330 2.48 9. Romania 1391 2.26 6.94
10. Myanmar 2246 2.39 10. Croatia 1319 2.15 2.44

Source: Ref. [2, Table 2, p. 360]; Ref. [3, Appendix C, pp. 4952].
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by BIMCO and ISF, undertaken every 5 years since 1990 cover for crew who are taking leave or who are ill. It
[3,5]. The 2005 study calculated the total demand for follows that the number of seafarers needed to operate each
seafarers in 2005 as 1.062 million, consisting of 476,000 vessel is larger than the number of posts set as the manning
ofcers and 586,000 ratings. It estimated the worldwide level. The backup ratio is a shorthand way of calculating
supply of these two groups as 466,000 and 721,000, the total number of seafarers employed to run the vessel to
respectively, signalling an apparent excess demand for the required national standard [3].
ofcers and an excess supply of ratings [3]. How were these The BIMCO/ISF study also provides estimates of the
numbers arrived at? regional composition of demand. Given the global nature
of the market place, such an analysis should be treated with
4.1. The global demand for seafarers caution. Their gures for 2005 are shown in Table 3. The
largest proportion of ofcer demand comes from the
The BIMCO/ISF study methodology was essentially to OECD agged vessels, which created 168,000 jobs in 2005
derive projected numbers of seafarer demand from (35% of all ofcer demand). The same ag grouping
estimates of the size, number, ship type and age com- generated the largest demand for ratings, 218,000, just
position of the worlds merchant shipping eet. They under 37% of the ratings total.
assumed that substitution between labour and capital is Whilst the BIMCO/ISF study has been widely accepted
zero, and in effect, used a xed coefcient production as authoritative in the industry, its methodology has not
model. gone unchallenged. Li and Wonham [1] argued that the
Using data derived from the Lloyds Register database 1995 study was awed in a number of respects. They
(now Lloyds Fairplay), the BIMCO/ISF study divided the argued that it would be better to model the demand for
worlds eet into four ship types: tankers, dry cargo, ferry seafarers by forecasting changes in average ship sizes, and
and passenger. These types were subdivided by size (ve relating manning levels to changes in the average ship size.
each for tankers and dry cargo, two for ferries and Whilst this avoids the use of detailed vintages and
passenger vessels), and also by vintage (twopre- and compositional structures which are employed in the
post-1975; two other age categories were identied for data BIMCO study, it is unclear why the use of average ship
projections). Finally, the authors generated manning sizes is in any way superior, given that they assume that the
requirements for each of these components; manning levels average ship size remains constant over time. In this case,
for seven countries represented typical arrangements for their model in effect becomes a simple time trend, and has
ags. In addition, a high manning, standard and low less information content than the BIMCO/ISF model.
manning level was also postulated. For example, the
assumption was made that the manning level for a Chinese 4.2. Future demand for seafarers
registered tanker of 150,000 gross tons (gt) built before
1975 would be 9.57 ofcers and 30 ratings, with backup From the above discussion, it should be clear that the
ratios of 1.9 and 1.7, respectively. The corresponding future demand for seafarers will be driven by a number of
gures for the UK were 9.57 ofcers, 17 ratings, and a factors, the same that determine present demand. They are
backup ratio of 1.8 for ofcers, 1.6 for ratings. For large
passenger vessels built after 1975, the corresponding (1) the future growth of world trade, and hence the growth
gures are 12.18 ofcers and 21 ratings for China, with in the world eet;
unchanged backup ratios. The UK assessment assumed (2) the future growth of ship productivity, which will be
10.44 ofcers, 20 ratings, with backup ratios of 2.8 and 2.6, determined by the technology embodied in new ships;
respectively. (3) the changing vintage of the eet, which will alter the
It should be noted that manning projections require crew levels required for safe manning;
assumptions about how many seafarers are necessary to (4) changes in the required levels of manning to comply
with national and international conventions as and
Table 3 when they alter;
Estimated demand for seafarers, 2005 (5) changes in the ag composition of the world eet,
because this affects overall manning totals; and
Flag Calculated demand (000) (6) changes in the proportions of non-national crews used
Ofcers Ratings by shipowners and ship management companies, as this
affects the typical manning levels [3].
OECD 168 218
Eastern Europe 29 29
Projecting world trade and eet growth in aggregate is
Africa/Latin America 144 166
Far East 117 149 the easiest of these tasks. The change in the vintage will be
Indian sub-continent 18 23 determined by scrapping and ordering decisions, which can
be very volatile. Projecting changes in national attitudes to
All national groups 476 586
the implementation and enforcement of labour regulations
Source: Ref. [3, Table 4.5, p. 16]. is probably best avoided.
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D. Glen / Marine Policy 32 (2008) 845855 849

The BIMCO/ISF study employed their computer model The estimated global seafarer supply is shown in Table 4.
to project three different scenarios for eet growth. The The total is 1.27 million, with 466,000 ofcers and 721,000
growth rates were zero (low), 1% (most likely), and 1.5% ratings. The main supplying countries are the OECD
(high). These growth factors were then used to generate the group, with 133,000 ofcers and 174,000 ratings, and the
eet composition for 2010 and 2015, which were taken as Far East, with 133,000 ofcers and 226,000 ratings [3]. The
projection points. In the most likely scenario, the demand principal supplying countries have been identied earlier in
for ofcers was projected to grow to 499,000 in 2015, from this article. Putting the demand estimates together with
476,000 in 2005, some 4.7% over 10 years. Ratings demand supply generates the result that there appears to be an
grows too, from 586,000 in 2005 to 607,000 in 2015, or excess demand for ofcers (of 10,000, or 2% of supply) and
3.5% over the same period [3]. an excess supply of ratings (of 135,000, or 19% of supply).
Growth rates are expected to vary across the ag groups Both the ofcer and ratings estimates are well within the
identied by the study. The benchmark scenario model margin of error of the supply data, given the comments
projects a growth in OECD demand for ofcers of 2.4% about data reliability.
over the 10-year period, 20052015. The only other group
with a similar demand projection is for Africa/Latin 4.4. Future supply of seafarers
America. Eastern Europe ofcer demand is stagnant, as
is demand from the Indian sub-continent; on the other Projecting the future numbers of seafarers was carried
hand, Far East demand is projected to grow at 2.6% out with a methodology that essentially models changes
between 2005 and 2010, falling to 1.6% for the next 5 over time of seafarers numbers in terms of the present age
years. Ratings demand growth is slightly lower, at just proles, together assumed inow rates, training non-
under 0.5% per year over 20102015. completion (wastage) rates and retirement rates. Combin-
ing the projected supply and demand estimates then yields
4.3. The global supply of seafarers the estimated shortages/ surpluses over the next 10 years.

Turning now to the global supply side. Identifying the 5. Seafarer age proles
number of ships worldwide is relatively easy, because of the
existence of the ship classication system. Identifying The discussion to date has focussed upon the estimated
the potential supply of seafarers on a global basis is much demand/supply projections on a global basis, drawing
more problematic. Under the STCW95 convention, all heavily upon the BIMCO/ISF studies. The basis of the
maritime administrations must keep records of seafarers, projections for future numbers was shown to rely heavily
and report to the IMO. In reality, the amount of detail on knowledge of the present numbers and age distribution
recorded varies. Many maritime administrations do not of all active seafarers. How reliable is this data?
maintain detailed records on their seafaring populations, The evidence suggests that accurate information about
although there are a few exceptions [1]. The BIMCO/ISF the age prole and other characteristics of seafarers is
study circumnavigated this problem by a variety of means, rather patchy. The BIMCO/ISF methodology relies upon
utilising questionnaire responses from 60 countries. The management replies to company questionnaires, yielding a
data was cross-referenced with information obtained from rough estimate of the age distribution. For certain occu-
a company-based questionnaire. Unfortunately, the com- pational groups, particularly ratings, this may be the only
pany questionnaire, sent to 500 major operators world- method of obtaining data; for the ofcers, it may be
wide, elicited a response rate of only 100, much less than possible to do better. This is because the implementation of
that in 2000. The lack of responses meant that some gures STCW95 requires ofcers to maintain their certicate
are unchanged from the 2000 estimates. of competency by revalidating their certicates within a
5-year time frame. By measuring the number of ofcers
that hold an administrations valid certicate of compe-
Table 4 tency, one can obtain an estimate of the potential number
Estimated supply of seafarers, 2005 that choose to go to sea, to be active.
This method forms the basis of counting seafarers that
Flag Current supply (000) has been used to provide a detailed estimate of the age
Ofcers Ratings prole of UK ofcers over the past 10 years. The latest
report for 2006 was published recently [6]. It includes
OECD 133 174 estimates of the age prole of UK ofcers which have been
Eastern Europe 95 115
derived from information held by the Maritime and
Africa/Latin America 38 110
Far East 133 226 Coastguard Agency (MCA). The age prole constructed
Indian sub-continent 68 96 from this basis is extremely accurate, but does suffer from
one weakness. By denition, it measures the age prole of
All national groups 466 721
all certicate holders; these include a proportion of workers
Source: Ref. [3, Table 3.1, p. 6]. who need a valid certicate for their shore-based work, and
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850 D. Glen / Marine Policy 32 (2008) 845855

are not seagoing at all. This proportion will clearly vary breakdown for ofcers and ratings, not just ofcers. Given
from country to country, depending on the size and nature the problems underlying the data collected by BIMCO/
of the shore-based maritime industry. ISF, it is argued that the accuracy of the data record is
The ratio was originally calculated to be 9%, but has sufcient to expect that the age prole so constructed may
been increased to 16% since 2004. For UK nationals be not too different from that of the entire population. It is
holding UK certicates, deriving an age prole for active possible that there is a systematic age bias in the
certicated ofcers suffers from this problem, but age deployment of overseas nationals on the UK registered
proles derived from MCA records on foreign nationals eet, or the ship types registered on the UK eet are
who have served on UK registered vessels and have valid atypical of the world eet structure, but these possibilities
certicates of competency will not. This is because by have not been explored in this paper.
denition, as in the SIRC case, the record relates to an A more useful exercise is to examine the age proles of
active seafarer. In the past two issues of UK Seafarers the data recorded in the MCA database against the
Analysis, age proles of deck and engine ofcers by certain information presented in the BIMCO/ISF study. This is
nationalities have been published. Table 5 lists the only possible by aggregating the country data listed above
countries whose ofcer age proles can be constructed into the same groupings used by BIMCO/ISF. This exer-
from the MCA database. Although the sample size is cise is rather delicate, because in some cases the mapping
qsmall, comparing the numbers with the estimates in the is represented by only one country; for example South
BIMCO/ISF study throws up some surprising results. Africa is the only representative of the Latin America/
South Africas 257 records represents 67% of their ofcer Africa grouping. A list of the mappings is provided in
numbers, with Bulgaria and Poland having 25% and 17%, Appendix A. Having aggregated the data in the same way
respectively. It would be interesting to compare the as BIMCO/ISF, comparisons can be made between the
proportions with the SIRC data, but they only give the average ages and age distributions published in the 2005
report, and those derived from the MCA sample. The
result is presented in Table 6. Despite the small sample and
Table 5 selective nature of the countries identied in the MCA
Principal nationalities of foreign certicated ofcers serving on UK
registered vessels, 20012006
database, the average ages are very similar. On the other
hand, the application of a formal statistical test to the
Country N % share % BIMCO cumulative age distributions (the KolmogorovSmirnov
non-parametric test) shows that there are signicant
Poland 1443 15.26 17.09
Ukraine 835 8.83 2.88 differences in the MCA and BIMCO/ISF age distributions
Russia 814 8.61 3.75 at the standard levels of statistical signicance. Details of
Philippines 812 8.59 1.75 these tests are provided in Appendix B.
India 714 7.55 7.55 Does this mean that the proles derived from the MCA
Romania 670 7.09 7.93
database are invalid? It may be argued no, for three
Croatia 555 5.87 5.39
Bulgaria 523 5.53 25.20 reasons. First, the MCA data is accurate, and has some
Italy 476 5.04 4.98 credibility, especially when the records become larger than
Latvia 356 3.77 4.74 a few hundred. Second, the matching of proles is not
South Africa 257 2.72 66.76 complete, so that differences may exist for this reason.
USA 186 1.97 2.89
Third, the data which BIMCO itself collected is based on a
Germany 114 1.21 2.38
Canada 111 1.17 2.44 very small number of company questionnaire responses
Norway 106 1.12 1.31 (100 out of 500 sent).
The average ages of the ofcers obtained in the MCA
Total 9453 84.33 2.03
sample, and the proportion aged more than 40 years
Source: MCA SDS Database 2006; Ref. [3]. old, are presented in Table 7. In general, those countries

Table 6
Comparison of age distributions of MCA data and BIMCO/ISF

All age groups

o20 2025 2630 3140 4150 5155 5660 460 % 440

Numbers 0 191 1339 2911 2274 774 369 114


Proportion 0.000 0.024 0.168 0.365 0.285 0.097 0.046 0.014
Cumulative distribution 0.024 0.192 0.557 0.842 0.939 0.986 1.000 44.29
BIMCO/ISF 0.000 0.056 0.168 0.332 0.296 0.096 0.036 0.016
Cumulative distribution 0.056 0.224 0.556 0.852 0.948 0.984 1.000 44.40

Source: Derived from MCA and Ref. [3].


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D. Glen / Marine Policy 32 (2008) 845855 851

Table 7
Certicated ofcers age structure, selected countries, 2006

Country Deck Engine All Ofcers

N Age % 440 N Age % 440 N Age % 440

Bulgaria 278 38.1 32.7 245 41.1 48.6 523 39.5 40.2
Canada 111 40.3 55.0 0 n.a. n.a. 111 40.3 55.0
Croatia 274 37.5 37.6 281 39.8 43.8 555 38.6 40.7
Germany 114 48.9 78.9 0 n.a. 114 48.9 78.9
India 374 34.9 25.4 340 38.2 38.8 714 36.4 31.8
Italy 247 40.0 47.0 229 41.0 45.9 476 40.5 46.4
Latvia 190 38.4 43.2 166 41.6 57.2 356 39.9 49.7
Norway 106 39.8 39.6 0 n.a. n.a. 106 39.8 39.6
Philippines 465 40.1 52.5 347 42.7 64.0 812 41.2 57.4
Poland 759 39.1 44.8 684 43.5 60.8 1443 41.2 52.4
Romania 391 35.4 23.8 279 37.2 34.4 670 36.1 28.2
Russia 403 38.8 45.9 411 40.5 53.5 814 39.7 49.8
South Africa 151 33.6 17.9 106 38.9 40.6 257 35.8 27.2
Ukraine 358 38.6 45.3 477 39.7 50.7 835 39.3 48.4
USA 186 49.4 90.9 0 n.a. n.a. 186 49.4 90.9
UK 9561 46.0 72.0 7475 45.3 68.0 17,036 45.7 70.2

Note: Age is the frequency-weighted average age of the sample.


Source: Derived by author from MCA database.

that are OECD members have higher average ages (for ment of training. Training ratings, by contrast, may take 6
example, the USA, 49.4 years; the UK, 45.7 years; and weeks. Ratings represent a relatively low investment, and
Germany, 48.9 years) than those that are not. Norway and are therefore less important to the individual company. It is
Canada are similar to Poland, Italy and Philippines. South also important to note that state monitoring of ratings is
Africa is the youngest, at 35.8, but this is based on a small far less comprehensive or accurate than it is for ofcers.
sample. It is notable that the average age of South African There is no legal requirement on ratings to maintain their
deck ofcers is only 33.6. Given that they are serving on competency, and this implies that there is often no central
UK registered ships, perhaps this is a part of the UKs source of data on ratings numbers. The STCW95
solution to the claimed shortage of junior ofcers. Indian convention calls for the development of further competen-
deck and engineer ofcers also have a young average age. cies, e.g. Watchkeepers Certicate for deck and engine
Philippines, Poland, Croatia, Romania, Russia and Uk- crew members.
raine all gure in the top 10 of global seafarer supplying What evidence there is for ratings is thus largely based
countries, as is shown in Table 2. It is interesting that the on responses from company questionnaires. As might be
other major suppliers, such as Myanmar, China (PRC) and expected, the age prole of ratings is slightly younger than
Indonesia are absent. This reects the regional nature of the respective ofcers, given the differences in training
seafarer supply, something noted by Sampson and Wu [2] times for the two groups. There is a wide variation by area
from their analysis of the SIRC database. of origin, according to the evidence in the BIMCO/ISF [3]
This necessarily selective view of the age proles of study. For all national groups, 61.8% of ratings were
ofcers highlights the large differences that exist in the aged 40 years or under, compared to 55.6% of ofcers.
present age distributions. These differences are important Only in the Africa/Latin America group was there a higher
because they both reect the effects of past commercial and proportion of ofcers aged 40 or less than for ratings.
government decisions concerning the national maritime Whilst differences in the age proles of national working
sectors, and at the same time they are also employed to populations clearly affect comparisons across these groups,
shape current and future national policies (See Fig. 1). it is clear that the OECD differences are quite markedthe
Information on the numbers and age distribution of relevant shares are 51.1% of all ratings are aged 40 or less,
ratings is more problematic than for ofcers. The primary as are 46.7% of all ofcers [3].
reason is the lack of any formal method of tracking this
resource on an industry or government basis. There is a 6. The link between economic development and seafarer
commercial reason for this. Training ofcers is expensive. supply
One UK company estimated its annual bill for training at
1 million per annum. Even when the trainee ofcer The data obtained on age proportions can also be used
obtains his/her rst certicate, the ultimate target, at least to explore the argument that the higher the real GDP per
for UK companies, is the ofcer obtaining a Masters capita of an economy, the lower is the potential supply
certicate. This may take up to 10 years from commence- of seafarers. The argument is simple. As an economys
ARTICLE IN PRESS
852 D. Glen / Marine Policy 32 (2008) 845855

10.00
Deck Engine
8.00 7.00
6.00 Deck Engine
Percent

6.00 5.00

Percent
4.00
4.00 3.00
2.00 2.00
1.00
0.00 0.00
21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63
Age Age

7.00
Deck Engine 7.00
6.00 Deck Engine
6.00
5.00
5.00
Percent

4.00

Percent
4.00
3.00 3.00
2.00 2.00
1.00 1.00
0.00 0.00
21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63
Age Age

7.00
Deck Engine
10.00 6.00
Deck Engine 5.00
8.00
Percent

4.00
Percent

6.00
3.00
4.00
2.00
2.00 1.00
0.00 0.00
21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63
Age Age

4.50
4.00 Deck Engine
3.50
3.00
Percent

2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63
Age

Fig. 1. Age proles of certicated ofcers, selected countries, 2006. Source: Derived from MCA data. (a) Croatia, (b) Poland, (c) Russia, (d) Ukraine,
(e) India, (f) Philippines, (g) UK.

real wages rise in line with GDP, the opportunity cost of domestic economy, the globalisation of the seafarer market
time spent at sea rises, as working at sea requires the makes seafarers from richer countries, with higher real wages,
sacrice of both leisure and work time. The relative lack of less attractive to employers, especially with greater standar-
attractiveness of the seafaring career in the wealthier disation of training since STCW95. This argument applies
economies implies a reduction in seafarer supply. On the more strongly perhaps to ofcers, who undergo long periods
demand side, if workers from richer nations expect of training and require to develop seagoing experience before
seafarer salaries to be compatible with earnings in their being able to work in senior operational positions. Hence, it is
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D. Glen / Marine Policy 32 (2008) 845855 853

18 and the published results of the BIMCO/ISF Manpower


16 y = 0.5088x + 4.175
Update. Whilst average ages are very similar, the detailed
R2 = 0.2589
% age > 40 Rank

14
12
proles are signicantly different. It is argued that, given the
10 unreliability of the data, information obtained from this new
8 source is still of potential interest, given its accuracy. It was
6 shown that a major subgroup of the SIRCs top 10 global
4 seafarer suppliers gure in the UK database. The age proles
2
0
constructed show clear differences between the richer
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 developed nations and those of the transition developing
GDP per capita Rank economies. It was also shown that a positive rank correlation
exists between the proportion of certicated ofcers aged
Fig. 2. Age structure and GDP per capita, selected countries, 2006. more than 40, and the rank order of GDP per capita. This is
Source: Derived from MCA data, IMF (2007), World Financial Statistics,
seen as evidence for the argument that the seafaring
IMF, Washington.
profession is a sector where the national supply will reduce
as real incomes rise, as the opportunity cost of a seafaring
expected that a positive correlation might exist between the career (time spent away at sea) rises.
proportion of ofcers aged 40 or more, and the level of real
GDP per capita in their economy. Acknowledgements
This idea is tested with the aid of the MCA data. Cross-
section data on 16 countries were ranked by the proportion The author would like to acknowledge the use of
of ofcers aged 40 years or more, and plotted against the information collected in the course of producing the UK
rank of GDP per capita. Both the Spearman rank correlation Seafarers Analysis over the period 19972006, from the
statistic was used, as well as the usual Pearson correlation, Maritime and Coastguard Agency (MCA), and from the
because the sample is quite small. The results are presented in United Kingdom Chamber of Shipping. Particular thanks are
Fig. 2. The Spearman rank correlation value is 0.474, which is due to Mr. John Dowden of the UK Chamber of Shipping,
statistically signicant at the 95% level, as the critical value is and Mr. Marc Williams, who provided access to the MCA
0.441. The gure for deck ofcers only is 0.509, which again Seafarer Documentation System (SDS), which holds informa-
exceeds the critical value. The Pearson correlation values tion on certicated ofcers. Thanks are also due to the
were 0.525 for all ofcers, and 0.591 for deck only. Maritime Statistics section of the UK Department for
This nding is consistent with the evidence presented in Transport, which has given permission for the publication of
the SIRC study by Sampson and Wu [2]. However, they data used in this study. The contribution of the anonymous
correlated the proportions of global seafarers (of the global referees in improving the clarity of this paper is acknowledged.
total) against GDP per capita, nding a negative relation:
the higher the GDP, the lower is the proportion of global Appendix A
seafarers from that community. This was interpreted as a
sign of future supply shortages from the wealthier Mapping of MCA country data onto BIMC/ISF categories
economies, who also happen to be members of the OECD.
Group
7. Summary and conclusions
OECD 1 Canada
This article has reviewed the existing knowledge of Germany
seafarer numbers. Examination of the published material Italy
has revealed a rather limited knowledge about numbers Norway
working the worlds merchant eet. The best-informed USA
estimate puts the global total at 1.3 million seafarers, with Eastern Europe 2 Bulgaria
440,000 ofcers and the remainder ratings and cadets. The Croatia
regional distribution of seafarers has changed over time, Latvia
reecting the decline in importance of the OECD countries Poland
as suppliers of seafarers for the world eet, and the rise in Romania
the use of open registries, which allow the use of multi- Russia
national crews to crew vessels. Ukraine
Age proles have been constructed for a number of Africa/Latin America 3 South Africa
nationalities, using data derived from the MCA SDS
database on certicated ofcers holding Certicates of Far East 4 Philippines
Equivalent Competency and who have worked on UK Indian sub-continent 5 India
registered vessels. The sample thus obtained was compared
with available information derived from the SIRC database Source: Author.
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854 D. Glen / Marine Policy 32 (2008) 845855

Appendix B

KolmorogovSmirnov tests on age distributions of BIMCO/ISF and MCA data

Group 1
Age o20 2025 2630 3140 4150 5155 5660 460
Numbers 0 16 97 328 274 140 95 43
Proportion 0.0 0.016 0.098 0.330 0.276 0.141 0.096 0.043
Cumulative distribution 0.016 0.114 0.444 0.720 0.861 0.957 1.000
BIMCO/ISF 0.0 0.067 0.150 0.250 0.283 0.133 0.067 0.050
Cumulative distribution 0.067 0.217 0.467 0.750 0.883 0.950 1.000
KS test 0.051 0.103 0.023 0.030 0.022 0.007 0.000
0.01 c. v. 0.051726 0.05 Critical value 0.043
Actual value of D 0.103
Group 2
Age o20 2025 2630 3140 4150 5155 5660 460
Numbers 0 113 871 1955 1504 470 218 65
Proportion 0.000 0.022 0.168 0.376 0.289 0.090 0.042 0.013
Cumulative distribution 0.022 0.189 0.566 0.855 0.946 0.987 1.000
BIMCO/ISF 0 0.06 0.179 0.299 0.299 0.104 0.045 0.015
Cumulative distribution 0.060 0.239 0.538 0.837 0.941 0.986 1.001
KS test 0.038 0.050 0.028 0.018 0.005 0.001 0.001
0.01 c. v. 0.023 0.05 Critical value
Actual value of D 0.050
Group 3
Age o20 2025 2630 3140 4150 5155 5660 460
Numbers 0 19 77 94 37 9 18 3
Proportion 0.000 0.074 0.300 0.366 0.144 0.035 0.070 0.012
Cumulative distribution 0.074 0.374 0.739 0.883 0.918 0.988 1.000
BIMCO/ISF 0.000 0.200 0.200 0.400 0.200 0.000 0.000 0.000
Cumulative distribution 0.200 0.400 0.800 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
KS test 0.126 0.026 0.061 0.117 0.082 0.012 0.000
0.01 c. v. 0.102 0.05 Critical value 0.019
Actual value of D 0.126
Group 4
Age o20 2025 2630 3140 4150 5155 5660 460
Numbers 0 18 99 248 318 106 22 1
Proportion 0.000 0.022 0.122 0.305 0.392 0.131 0.027 0.001
Cumulative distribution 0.022 0.144 0.450 0.841 0.972 0.999 1.000
BIMCO/ISF 0.000 0.046 0.154 0.385 0.338 0.062 0.015 0.000
Cumulative distribution 0.046 0.200 0.585 0.923 0.985 1.000 1.000
KS test 0.024 0.056 0.135 0.082 0.013 0.001 0.000
0.01 c. v. 0.057 0.05 Critical value 0.085
Actual value of D 0.135
Group 5
Age o20 2025 2630 3140 4150 5155 5660 460
Numbers 0 25 195 286 141 49 16 2
Proportion 0.000 0.035 0.273 0.401 0.197 0.069 0.022 0.003
Cumulative distribution 0.035 0.308 0.709 0.906 0.975 0.997 1.000
BIMCO/ISF 0.000 0.038 0.189 0.396 0.264 0.094 0.019 0.000
Cumulative distribution 0.038 0.227 0.623 0.887 0.981 1.000 1.000
KS test 0.003 0.081 0.086 0.019 0.006 0.003 0.000
0.01 c. v. 0.061 0.05 Critical value 0.048
Actual value of D 0.086
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D. Glen / Marine Policy 32 (2008) 845855 855

KolmorogovSmirnov tests on age distributions of BIMCO/ISF and MCA data


All groups
Age o20 2025 2630 3140 4150 5155 5660 460
Numbers 0 191 1339 2911 2274 774 369 114
Proportion 0.000 0.024 0.168 0.365 0.285 0.097 0.046 0.014
Cumulative distribution 0.024 0.192 0.557 0.842 0.939 0.986 1.000
BIMCO/ISF 0.000 0.056 0.168 0.332 0.296 0.096 0.036 0.016
Cumulative distribution 0.056 0.224 0.556 0.852 0.948 0.984 1.000
KS test 0.032 0.032 0.001 0.010 0.009 0.002 0.000
0.01 c. v. 0.018256 0.05 Critical value
Actual value of D 0.032
Source: Calculated by author.

References [4] Leggate H. The future shortage of seafarers: will it become a reality?
Maritime Policy and Management 2004;31(1):313.
[1] Li KX, Wonham J. Who mans the world eet? Maritime Policy and [5] BIMCO/ISF Manpower Update: The Worldwide Demand for and
Management 1999;26(3):295303. Supply of Seafarers 2000. UK: Institute for Employment Research,
[2] Sampson H, Wu B. Reconsidering the cargo sectors labour market: a University of Warwick. 113pp.
21st century prole of global seafarers. Ocean Yearbook 2005;19: [6] Glen, D. UK Seafarers Analysis 2006, 2007. London: London
35780. Metropolitan University. 66pp.
[3] BIMCO/ISF Manpower Update: The Worldwide Demand for and
Supply of Seafarers 2005. UK: Institute for Employment Research,
University of Warwick. 93pp.

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