TheClashofCivilizations?

BySamuelP.Huntington
PurchaseArticle

Disponvelem:https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/unitedstates/19930601/clashcivilizations

TocelebratethetwentiethanniversaryofthepublicationofTheClashofCivilizations?,wehave
compiledaneweBookcollectionfeaturingabroadrangeofForeignAffairscontent.TheeBook
includesSamuelHuntington'soriginalarticleandthepraiseandcriticisminspiredinitswake,plusa
newintroductionbyEditorGideonRose.Findoutmore.

THENEXTPATTERNOFCONFLICT

Worldpoliticsisenteringanewphase,andintellectualshavenothesitatedtoproliferatevisionsof
whatitwillbetheendofhistory,thereturnoftraditionalrivalriesbetweennationstates,andthe
declineofthenationstatefromtheconflictingpullsoftribalismandglobalism,amongothers.Eachof
thesevisionscatchesaspectsoftheemergingreality.Yettheyallmissacrucial,indeedacentral,
aspectofwhatglobalpoliticsislikelytobeinthecomingyears.

Itismyhypothesisthatthefundamentalsourceofconflictinthisnewworldwillnotbeprimarily
ideologicalorprimarilyeconomic.Thegreatdivisionsamonghumankindandthedominatingsourceof
conflictwillbecultural.Nationstateswillremainthemostpowerfulactorsinworldaffairs,butthe
principalconflictsofglobalpoliticswilloccurbetweennationsandgroupsofdifferentcivilizations.
Theclashofcivilizationswilldominateglobalpolitics.Thefaultlinesbetweencivilizationswillbethe
battlelinesofthefuture.

Conflictbetweencivilizationswillbethelatestphaseintheevolutionofconflictinthemodernworld.
ForacenturyandahalfaftertheemergenceofthemoderninternationalsystemwiththePeaceof
Westphalia,theconflictsoftheWesternworldwerelargelyamongprincesemperors,absolute
monarchsandconstitutionalmonarchsattemptingtoexpandtheirbureaucracies,theirarmies,their
mercantilisteconomicstrengthand,mostimportant,theterritorytheyruled.Intheprocesstheycreated
nationstates,andbeginningwiththeFrenchRevolutiontheprincipallinesofconflictwerebetween
nationsratherthanprinces.In1793,asR.R.Palmerputit,"Thewarsofkingswereover;thewarsof
peopleshadbegun."ThisnineteenthcenturypatternlasteduntiltheendofWorldWarI.Then,asa
resultoftheRussianRevolutionandthereactionagainstit,theconflictofnationsyieldedtothe
conflictofideologies,firstamongcommunism,fascismNazismandliberaldemocracy,andthen
betweencommunismandliberaldemocracy.DuringtheColdWar,thislatterconflictbecame
embodiedinthestrugglebetweenthetwosuperpowers,neitherofwhichwasanationstateinthe
classicalEuropeansenseandeachofwhichdefineditsidentityintermsofitsideology.

Theseconflictsbetweenprinces,nationstatesandideologieswereprimarilyconflictswithinWestern
civilization,"Westerncivilwars,"asWilliamLindhaslabeledthem.ThiswasastrueoftheColdWar
asitwasoftheworldwarsandtheearlierwarsoftheseventeenth,eighteenthandnineteenthcenturies.
WiththeendoftheColdWar,internationalpoliticsmovesoutofitsWesternphase,anditscenterpiece
becomestheinteractionbetweentheWestandnonWesterncivilizationsandamongnonWestern
civilizations.Inthepoliticsofcivilizations,thepeoplesandgovernmentsofnonWesterncivilizations
nolongerremaintheobjectsofhistoryastargetsofWesterncolonialismbutjointheWestasmovers
andshapersofhistory.

THENATUREOFCIVILIZATIONS
DuringthecoldwartheworldwasdividedintotheFirst,SecondandThirdWorlds.Thosedivisions
arenolongerrelevant.Itisfarmoremeaningfulnowtogroupcountriesnotintermsoftheirpolitical
oreconomicsystemsorintermsoftheirlevelofeconomicdevelopmentbutratherintermsoftheir
cultureandcivilization.

Whatdowemeanwhenwetalkofacivilization?Acivilizationisaculturalentity.Villages,regions,
ethnicgroups,nationalities,religiousgroups,allhavedistinctculturesatdifferentlevelsofcultural
heterogeneity.ThecultureofavillageinsouthernItalymaybedifferentfromthatofavillagein
northernItaly,butbothwillshareinacommonItalianculturethatdistinguishesthemfromGerman
villages.Europeancommunities,inturn,willshareculturalfeaturesthatdistinguishthemfromArabor
Chinesecommunities.Arabs,ChineseandWesterners,however,arenotpartofanybroadercultural
entity.Theyconstitutecivilizations.Acivilizationisthusthehighestculturalgroupingofpeopleand
thebroadestlevelofculturalidentitypeoplehaveshortofthatwhichdistinguisheshumansfromother
species.Itisdefinedbothbycommonobjectiveelements,suchaslanguage,history,religion,customs,
institutions,andbythesubjectiveselfidentificationofpeople.Peoplehavelevelsofidentity:aresident
ofRomemaydefinehimselfwithvaryingdegreesofintensityasaRoman,anItalian,aCatholic,a
Christian,aEuropean,aWesterner.Thecivilizationtowhichhebelongsisthebroadestlevelof
identificationwithwhichheintenselyidentifies.Peoplecananddoredefinetheiridentitiesand,asa
result,thecompositionandboundariesofcivilizationschange.

Civilizationsmayinvolvealargenumberofpeople,aswithChina("acivilizationpretendingtobea
state,"asLucianPyeputit),oraverysmallnumberofpeople,suchastheAnglophoneCaribbean.A
civilizationmayincludeseveralnationstates,asisthecasewithWestern,LatinAmericanandArab
civilizations,oronlyone,asisthecasewithJapanesecivilization.Civilizationsobviouslyblendand
overlap,andmayincludesubcivilizations.Westerncivilizationhastwomajorvariants,Europeanand
NorthAmerican,andIslamhasitsArab,TurkicandMalaysubdivisions.Civilizationsarenonetheless
meaningfulentities,andwhilethelinesbetweenthemareseldomsharp,theyarereal.Civilizationsare
dynamic;theyriseandfall;theydivideandmerge.And,asanystudentofhistoryknows,civilizations
disappearandareburiedinthesandsoftime.

Westernerstendtothinkofnationstatesastheprincipalactorsinglobalaffairs.Theyhavebeenthat,
however,foronlyafewcenturies.Thebroaderreachesofhumanhistoryhavebeenthehistoryof
civilizations.InAStudyofHistory,ArnoldToynbeeidentified21majorcivilizations;onlysixofthem
existinthecontemporaryworld.

WHYCIVILIZATIONSWILLCLASH

Civilizationidentitywillbeincreasinglyimportantinthefuture,andtheworldwillbeshapedinlarge
measurebytheinteractionsamongsevenoreightmajorcivilizations.TheseincludeWestern,
Confucian,Japanese,Islamic,Hindu,SlavicOrthodox,LatinAmericanandpossiblyAfrican
civilization.Themostimportantconflictsofthefuturewilloccuralongtheculturalfaultlines
separatingthesecivilizationsfromoneanother.

Whywillthisbethecase?

First,differencesamongcivilizationsarenotonlyreal;theyarebasic.Civilizationsaredifferentiated
fromeachotherbyhistory,language,culture,traditionand,mostimportant,religion.Thepeopleof
differentcivilizationshavedifferentviewsontherelationsbetweenGodandman,theindividualand
thegroup,thecitizenandthestate,parentsandchildren,husbandandwife,aswellasdifferingviews
oftherelativeimportanceofrightsandresponsibilities,libertyandauthority,equalityandhierarchy.
Thesedifferencesaretheproductofcenturies.Theywillnotsoondisappear.Theyarefarmore
fundamentalthandifferencesamongpoliticalideologiesandpoliticalregimes.Differencesdonot
necessarilymeanconflict,andconflictdoesnotnecessarilymeanviolence.Overthecenturies,
however,differencesamongcivilizationshavegeneratedthemostprolongedandthemostviolent
conflicts.
Second,theworldisbecomingasmallerplace.Theinteractionsbetweenpeoplesofdifferent
civilizationsareincreasing;theseincreasinginteractionsintensifycivilizationconsciousnessand
awarenessofdifferencesbetweencivilizationsandcommonalitieswithincivilizations.NorthAfrican
immigrationtoFrancegenerateshostilityamongFrenchmenandatthesametimeincreasedreceptivity
toimmigrationby"good''EuropeanCatholicPoles.AmericansreactfarmorenegativelytoJapanese
investmentthantolargerinvestmentsfromCanadaandEuropeancountries.Similarly,asDonald
Horowitzhaspointedout,"AnIbomaybe...anOwerriIbooranOnitshaIboinwhatwastheEastern
regionofNigeria.InLagos,heissimplyanIbo.InLondon,heisaNigerian.InNewYork,heisan
African."Theinteractionsamongpeoplesofdifferentcivilizationsenhancethecivilization
consciousnessofpeoplethat,inturn,invigoratesdifferencesandanimositiesstretchingorthoughtto
stretchbackdeepintohistory.

Third,theprocessesofeconomicmodernizationandsocialchangethroughouttheworldareseparating
peoplefromlongstandinglocalidentities.Theyalsoweakenthenationstateasasourceofidentity.In
muchoftheworldreligionhasmovedintofillthisgap,oftenintheformofmovementsthatare
labeled"fundamentalist."SuchmovementsarefoundinWesternChristianity,Judaism,Buddhismand
Hinduism,aswellasinIslam.Inmostcountriesandmostreligionsthepeopleactiveinfundamentalist
movementsareyoung,collegeeducated,middleclasstechnicians,professionalsandbusinesspersons.
The"unsecularizationoftheworld,"GeorgeWeigelhasremarked,"isoneofthedominantsocialfacts
oflifeinthelatetwentiethcentury."Therevivalofreligion,"larevanchedeDieu,"asGillesKepel
labeledit,providesabasisforidentityandcommitmentthattranscendsnationalboundariesandunites
civilizations.

Fourth,thegrowthofcivilizationconsciousnessisenhancedbythedualroleoftheWest.Ontheone
hand,theWestisatapeakofpower.Atthesametime,however,andperhapsasaresult,areturntothe
rootsphenomenonisoccurringamongnonWesterncivilizations.Increasinglyonehearsreferencesto
trendstowardaturninginwardand"Asianization"inJapan,theendoftheNehrulegacyandthe
"Hinduization"ofIndia,thefailureofWesternideasofsocialismandnationalismandhence"re
Islamization"oftheMiddleEast,andnowadebateoverWesternizationversusRussianizationinBoris
Yeltsin'scountry.AWestatthepeakofitspowerconfrontsnonWeststhatincreasinglyhavethe
desire,thewillandtheresourcestoshapetheworldinnonWesternways.

Inthepast,theelitesofnonWesternsocietieswereusuallythepeoplewhoweremostinvolvedwith
theWest,hadbeeneducatedatOxford,theSorbonneorSandhurst,andhadabsorbedWesternattitudes
andvalues.Atthesametime,thepopulaceinnonWesterncountriesoftenremaineddeeplyimbued
withtheindigenousculture.Now,however,theserelationshipsarebeingreversed.Ade
WesternizationandindigenizationofelitesisoccurringinmanynonWesterncountriesatthesame
timethatWestern,usuallyAmerican,cultures,stylesandhabitsbecomemorepopularamongthemass
ofthepeople.

Fifth,culturalcharacteristicsanddifferencesarelessmutableandhencelesseasilycompromisedand
resolvedthanpoliticalandeconomicones.IntheformerSovietUnion,communistscanbecome
democrats,therichcanbecomepoorandthepoorrich,butRussianscannotbecomeEstoniansand
AzeriscannotbecomeArmenians.Inclassandideologicalconflicts,thekeyquestionwas"Whichside
areyouon?"andpeoplecouldanddidchoosesidesandchangesides.Inconflictsbetween
civilizations,thequestionis"Whatareyou?"Thatisagiventhatcannotbechanged.Andasweknow,
fromBosniatotheCaucasustotheSudan,thewronganswertothatquestioncanmeanabulletinthe
head.Evenmorethanethnicity,religiondiscriminatessharplyandexclusivelyamongpeople.Aperson
canbehalfFrenchandhalfArabandsimultaneouslyevenacitizenoftwocountries.Itismore
difficulttobehalfCatholicandhalfMuslim.

Finally,economicregionalismisincreasing.Theproportionsoftotaltradethatwereintraregionalrose
between1980and1989from51percentto59percentinEurope,33percentto37percentinEastAsia,
and32percentto36percentinNorthAmerica.Theimportanceofregionaleconomicblocsislikelyto
continuetoincreaseinthefuture.Ontheonehand,successfuleconomicregionalismwillreinforce
civilizationconsciousness.Ontheotherhand,economicregionalismmaysucceedonlywhenitis
rootedinacommoncivilization.TheEuropeanCommunityrestsonthesharedfoundationofEuropean
cultureandWesternChristianity.ThesuccessoftheNorthAmericanFreeTradeAreadependsonthe
convergencenowunderwayofMexican,CanadianandAmericancultures.Japan,incontrast,faces
difficultiesincreatingacomparableeconomicentityinEastAsiabecauseJapanisasocietyand
civilizationuniquetoitself.HoweverstrongthetradeandinvestmentlinksJapanmaydevelopwith
otherEastAsiancountries,itsculturaldifferenceswiththosecountriesinhibitandperhapsprecludeits
promotingregionaleconomicintegrationlikethatinEuropeandNorthAmerica.

Commonculture,incontrast,isclearlyfacilitatingtherapidexpansionoftheeconomicrelations
betweenthePeople'sRepublicofChinaandHongKong,Taiwan,SingaporeandtheoverseasChinese
communitiesinotherAsiancountries.WiththeColdWarover,culturalcommonalitiesincreasingly
overcomeideologicaldifferences,andmainlandChinaandTaiwanmoveclosertogether.Ifcultural
commonalityisaprerequisiteforeconomicintegration,theprincipalEastAsianeconomicblocofthe
futureislikelytobecenteredonChina.Thisblocis,infact,alreadycomingintoexistence.AsMurray
Weidenbaumhasobserved,

DespitethecurrentJapanesedominanceoftheregion,theChinesebasedeconomyofAsiaisrapidly
emergingasanewepicenterforindustry,commerceandfinance.Thisstrategicareacontains
substantialamountsoftechnologyandmanufacturingcapability(Taiwan),outstandingentrepreneurial,
marketingandservicesacumen(HongKong),afinecommunicationsnetwork(Singapore),a
tremendouspooloffinancialcapital(allthree),andverylargeendowmentsofland,resourcesandlabor
(mainlandChina)....FromGuangzhoutoSingapore,fromKualaLumpurtoManila,thisinfluential
networkoftenbasedonextensionsofthetraditionalclanshasbeendescribedasthebackboneofthe
EastAsianeconomy.

CultureandreligionalsoformthebasisoftheEconomicCooperationOrganization,whichbrings
togethertennonArabMuslimcountries:Iran,Pakistan,Turkey,Azerbaijan,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,
Turkmenistan,Tadjikistan,UzbekistanandAfghanistan.Oneimpetustotherevivalandexpansionof
thisorganization,foundedoriginallyinthe1960sbyTurkey,PakistanandIran,istherealizationbythe
leadersofseveralofthesecountriesthattheyhadnochanceofadmissiontotheEuropeanCommunity.
Similarly,Caricom,theCentralAmericanCommonMarketandMercosurrestoncommoncultural
foundations.EffortstobuildabroaderCaribbeanCentralAmericaneconomicentitybridgingthe
AngloLatindivide,however,havetodatefailed.

Aspeopledefinetheiridentityinethnicandreligiousterms,theyarelikelytoseean"us"versus
"them"relationexistingbetweenthemselvesandpeopleofdifferentethnicityorreligion.Theendof
ideologicallydefinedstatesinEasternEuropeandtheformerSovietUnionpermitstraditionalethnic
identitiesandanimositiestocometothefore.Differencesincultureandreligioncreatedifferences
overpolicyissues,rangingfromhumanrightstoimmigrationtotradeandcommercetothe
environment.GeographicalpropinquitygivesrisetoconflictingterritorialclaimsfromBosniato
Mindanao.Mostimportant,theeffortsoftheWesttopromoteitsvaluesofdemocracyandliberalism
asuniversalvalues,tomaintainitsmilitarypredominanceandtoadvanceitseconomicinterests
engendercounteringresponsesfromothercivilizations.Decreasinglyabletomobilizesupportand
formcoalitionsonthebasisofideology,governmentsandgroupswillincreasinglyattempttomobilize
supportbyappealingtocommonreligionandcivilizationidentity.

Theclashofcivilizationsthusoccursattwolevels.Atthemicrolevel,adjacentgroupsalongthefault
linesbetweencivilizationsstruggle,oftenviolently,overthecontrolofterritoryandeachother.Atthe
macrolevel,statesfromdifferentcivilizationscompeteforrelativemilitaryandeconomicpower,
struggleoverthecontrolofinternationalinstitutionsandthirdparties,andcompetitivelypromotetheir
particularpoliticalandreligiousvalues.

THEFAULTLINESBETWEENCIVILIZATIONS

ThefaultlinesbetweencivilizationsarereplacingthepoliticalandideologicalboundariesoftheCold
Warastheflashpointsforcrisisandbloodshed.TheColdWarbeganwhentheIronCurtaindivided
Europepoliticallyandideologically.TheColdWarendedwiththeendoftheIronCurtain.Asthe
ideologicaldivisionofEuropehasdisappeared,theculturaldivisionofEuropebetweenWestern
Christianity,ontheonehand,andOrthodoxChristianityandIslam,ontheother,hasreemerged.The
mostsignificantdividinglineinEurope,asWilliamWallacehassuggested,maywellbetheeastern
boundaryofWesternChristianityintheyear1500.Thislinerunsalongwhatarenowtheboundaries
betweenFinlandandRussiaandbetweentheBalticstatesandRussia,cutsthroughBelarusand
UkraineseparatingthemoreCatholicwesternUkrainefromOrthodoxeasternUkraine,swings
westwardseparatingTransylvaniafromtherestofRomania,andthengoesthroughYugoslaviaalmost
exactlyalongthelinenowseparatingCroatiaandSloveniafromtherestofYugoslavia.IntheBalkans
thisline,ofcourse,coincideswiththehistoricboundarybetweentheHapsburgandOttomanempires.
ThepeoplestothenorthandwestofthislineareProtestantorCatholic;theysharedthecommon
experiencesofEuropeanhistoryfeudalism,theRenaissance,theReformation,theEnlightenment,the
FrenchRevolution,theIndustrialRevolution;theyaregenerallyeconomicallybetteroffthanthe
peoplestotheeast;andtheymaynowlookforwardtoincreasinginvolvementinacommonEuropean
economyandtotheconsolidationofdemocraticpoliticalsystems.Thepeoplestotheeastandsouthof
thislineareOrthodoxorMuslim;theyhistoricallybelongedtotheOttomanorTsaristempiresand
wereonlylightlytouchedbytheshapingeventsintherestofEurope;theyaregenerallylessadvanced
economically;theyseemmuchlesslikelytodevelopstabledemocraticpoliticalsystems.TheVelvet
CurtainofculturehasreplacedtheIronCurtainofideologyasthemostsignificantdividinglinein
Europe.AstheeventsinYugoslaviashow,itisnotonlyalineofdifference;itisalsoattimesalineof
bloodyconflict.

ConflictalongthefaultlinebetweenWesternandIslamiccivilizationshasbeengoingonfor1,300
years.AfterthefoundingofIslam,theArabandMoorishsurgewestandnorthonlyendedatToursin
732.FromtheeleventhtothethirteenthcenturytheCrusadersattemptedwithtemporarysuccessto
bringChristianityandChristianruletotheHolyLand.Fromthefourteenthtotheseventeenthcentury,
theOttomanTurksreversedthebalance,extendedtheirswayovertheMiddleEastandtheBalkans,
capturedConstantinople,andtwicelaidsiegetoVienna.Inthenineteenthandearlytwentiethcenturies
asOttomanpowerdeclinedBritain,France,andItalyestablishedWesterncontrolovermostofNorth
AfricaandtheMiddleEast.

AfterWorldWarII,theWest,inturn,begantoretreat;thecolonialempiresdisappeared;firstArab
nationalismandthenIslamicfundamentalismmanifestedthemselves;theWestbecameheavily
dependentonthePersianGulfcountriesforitsenergy;theoilrichMuslimcountriesbecamemoney
richand,whentheywishedto,weaponsrich.SeveralwarsoccurredbetweenArabsandIsrael(created
bytheWest).FrancefoughtabloodyandruthlesswarinAlgeriaformostofthe1950s;Britishand
FrenchforcesinvadedEgyptin1956;AmericanforceswentintoLebanonin1958;subsequently
AmericanforcesreturnedtoLebanon,attackedLibya,andengagedinvariousmilitaryencounterswith
Iran;ArabandIslamicterrorists,supportedbyatleastthreeMiddleEasterngovernments,employed
theweaponoftheweakandbombedWesternplanesandinstallationsandseizedWesternhostages.
ThiswarfarebetweenArabsandtheWestculminatedin1990,whentheUnitedStatessentamassive
armytothePersianGulftodefendsomeArabcountriesagainstaggressionbyanother.Initsaftermath
NATOplanningisincreasinglydirectedtopotentialthreatsandinstabilityalongits"southerntier."

ThiscenturiesoldmilitaryinteractionbetweentheWestandIslamisunlikelytodecline.Itcould
becomemorevirulent.TheGulfWarleftsomeArabsfeelingproudthatSaddamHusseinhadattacked
IsraelandstooduptotheWest.ItalsoleftmanyfeelinghumiliatedandresentfuloftheWest'smilitary
presenceinthePersianGulf,theWest'soverwhelmingmilitarydominance,andtheirapparentinability
toshapetheirowndestiny.ManyArabcountries,inadditiontotheoilexporters,arereachinglevelsof
economicandsocialdevelopmentwhereautocraticformsofgovernmentbecomeinappropriateand
effortstointroducedemocracybecomestronger.SomeopeningsinArabpoliticalsystemshavealready
occurred.TheprincipalbeneficiariesoftheseopeningshavebeenIslamistmovements.IntheArab
world,inshort,WesterndemocracystrengthensantiWesternpoliticalforces.Thismaybeapassing
phenomenon,butitsurelycomplicatesrelationsbetweenIslamiccountriesandtheWest.

Thoserelationsarealsocomplicatedbydemography.ThespectacularpopulationgrowthinArab
countries,particularlyinNorthAfrica,hasledtoincreasedmigrationtoWesternEurope.The
movementwithinWesternEuropetowardminimizinginternalboundarieshassharpenedpolitical
sensitivitieswithrespecttothisdevelopment.InItaly,FranceandGermany,racismisincreasingly
open,andpoliticalreactionsandviolenceagainstArabandTurkishmigrantshavebecomemore
intenseandmorewidespreadsince1990.

OnbothsidestheinteractionbetweenIslamandtheWestisseenasaclashofcivilizations.TheWest's
"nextconfrontation,"observesM.J.Akbar,anIndianMuslimauthor,"isdefinitelygoingtocomefrom
theMuslimworld.ItisinthesweepoftheIslamicnationsfromtheMaghrebtoPakistanthatthe
struggleforanewworldorderwillbegin."BernardLewiscomestoasimilarconclusion:

Wearefacingamoodandamovementfartranscendingthelevelofissuesandpoliciesandthe
governmentsthatpursuethem.Thisisnolessthanaclashofcivilizationstheperhapsirrationalbut
surelyhistoricreactionofanancientrivalagainstourJudeoChristianheritage,oursecularpresent,and
theworldwideexpansionofboth.

Historically,theothergreatantagonisticinteractionofArabIslamiccivilizationhasbeenwiththe
pagan,animist,andnowincreasinglyChristianblackpeoplestothesouth.Inthepast,thisantagonism
wasepitomizedintheimageofArabslavedealersandblackslaves.Ithasbeenreflectedintheon
goingcivilwarintheSudanbetweenArabsandblacks,thefightinginChadbetweenLibyansupported
insurgentsandthegovernment,thetensionsbetweenOrthodoxChristiansandMuslimsintheHornof
Africa,andthepoliticalconflicts,recurringriotsandcommunalviolencebetweenMuslimsand
ChristiansinNigeria.ThemodernizationofAfricaandthespreadofChristianityarelikelytoenhance
theprobabilityofviolencealongthisfaultline.Symptomaticoftheintensificationofthisconflictwas
thePopeJohnPaulII'sspeechinKhartouminFebruary1993attackingtheactionsoftheSudan's
IslamistgovernmentagainsttheChristianminoritythere.

OnthenorthernborderofIslam,conflicthasincreasinglyeruptedbetweenOrthodoxandMuslim
peoples,includingthecarnageofBosniaandSarajevo,thesimmeringviolencebetweenSerband
Albanian,thetenuousrelationsbetweenBulgariansandtheirTurkishminority,theviolencebetween
OssetiansandIngush,theunremittingslaughterofeachotherbyArmeniansandAzeris,thetense
relationsbetweenRussiansandMuslimsinCentralAsia,andthedeploymentofRussiantroopsto
protectRussianinterestsintheCaucasusandCentralAsia.Religionreinforcestherevivalofethnic
identitiesandrestimulatesRussianfearsaboutthesecurityoftheirsouthernborders.Thisconcernis
wellcapturedbyArchieRoosevelt:

MuchofRussianhistoryconcernsthestrugglebetweentheSlavsandtheTurkicpeoplesontheir
borders,whichdatesbacktothefoundationoftheRussianstatemorethanathousandyearsago.Inthe
Slavs'millenniumlongconfrontationwiththeireasternneighborsliesthekeytoanunderstandingnot
onlyofRussianhistory,butRussiancharacter.TounderstandRussianrealitiestodayonehastohavea
conceptofthegreatTurkicethnicgroupthathaspreoccupiedRussiansthroughthecenturies.

TheconflictofcivilizationsisdeeplyrootedelsewhereinAsia.ThehistoricclashbetweenMuslimand
HinduinthesubcontinentmanifestsitselfnownotonlyintherivalrybetweenPakistanandIndiabut
alsoinintensifyingreligiousstrifewithinIndiabetweenincreasinglymilitantHindugroupsandIndia's
substantialMuslimminority.ThedestructionoftheAyodhyamosqueinDecember1992broughttothe
foretheissueofwhetherIndiawillremainaseculardemocraticstateorbecomeaHinduone.InEast
Asia,Chinahasoutstandingterritorialdisputeswithmostofitsneighbors.Ithaspursuedaruthless
policytowardtheBuddhistpeopleofTibet,anditispursuinganincreasinglyruthlesspolicytowardits
TurkicMuslimminority.WiththeColdWarover,theunderlyingdifferencesbetweenChinaandthe
UnitedStateshavereassertedthemselvesinareassuchashumanrights,tradeandweapons
proliferation.Thesedifferencesareunlikelytomoderate.A"newcoldwar,"DengXaiopingreportedly
assertedin1991,isunderwaybetweenChinaandAmerica.

ThesamephrasehasbeenappliedtotheincreasinglydifficultrelationsbetweenJapanandtheUnited
States.Hereculturaldifferenceexacerbateseconomicconflict.Peopleoneachsideallegeracismonthe
other,butatleastontheAmericansidetheantipathiesarenotracialbutcultural.Thebasicvalues,
attitudes,behavioralpatternsofthetwosocietiescouldhardlybemoredifferent.Theeconomicissues
betweentheUnitedStatesandEuropearenolessseriousthanthosebetweentheUnitedStatesand
Japan,buttheydonothavethesamepoliticalsalienceandemotionalintensitybecausethedifferences
betweenAmericancultureandEuropeanculturearesomuchlessthanthosebetweenAmerican
civilizationandJapanesecivilization.

Theinteractionsbetweencivilizationsvarygreatlyintheextenttowhichtheyarelikelytobe
characterizedbyviolence.EconomiccompetitionclearlypredominatesbetweentheAmericanand
EuropeansubcivilizationsoftheWestandbetweenbothofthemandJapan.OntheEurasiancontinent,
however,theproliferationofethnicconflict,epitomizedattheextremein"ethniccleansing,"hasnot
beentotallyrandom.Ithasbeenmostfrequentandmostviolentbetweengroupsbelongingtodifferent
civilizations.InEurasiathegreathistoricfaultlinesbetweencivilizationsareoncemoreaflame.Thisis
particularlytruealongtheboundariesofthecrescentshapedIslamicblocofnationsfromthebulgeof
AfricatocentralAsia.ViolencealsooccursbetweenMuslims,ontheonehand,andOrthodoxSerbsin
theBalkans,JewsinIsrael,HindusinIndia,BuddhistsinBurmaandCatholicsinthePhilippines.
Islamhasbloodyborders.

CIVILIZATIONRALLYING:THEKINCOUNTRYSYNDROME

Groupsorstatesbelongingtoonecivilizationthatbecomeinvolvedinwarwithpeoplefromadifferent
civilizationnaturallytrytorallysupportfromothermembersoftheirowncivilization.Asthepost
ColdWarworldevolves,civilizationcommonality,whatH.D.S.Greenwayhastermedthe"kin
country"syndrome,isreplacingpoliticalideologyandtraditionalbalanceofpowerconsiderationsas
theprincipalbasisforcooperationandcoalitions.ItcanbeseengraduallyemerginginthepostCold
WarconflictsinthePersianGulf,theCaucasusandBosnia.Noneofthesewasafullscalewarbetween
civilizations,buteachinvolvedsomeelementsofcivilizationalrallying,whichseemedtobecomemore
importantastheconflictcontinuedandwhichmayprovideaforetasteofthefuture.

First,intheGulfWaroneArabstateinvadedanotherandthenfoughtacoalitionofArab,Westernand
otherstates.WhileonlyafewMuslimgovernmentsovertlysupportedSaddamHussein,manyArab
elitesprivatelycheeredhimon,andhewashighlypopularamonglargesectionsoftheArabpublics.
IslamicfundamentalistmovementsuniversallysupportedIraqratherthantheWesternbacked
governmentsofKuwaitandSaudiArabia.ForswearingArabnationalism,SaddamHusseinexplicitly
invokedanIslamicappeal.Heandhissupportersattemptedtodefinethewarasawarbetween
civilizations."ItisnottheworldagainstIraq,"asSafarAlHawali,deanofIslamicStudiesattheUmm
AlQuraUniversityinMecca,putitinawidelycirculatedtape."ItistheWestagainstIslam."Ignoring
therivalrybetweenIranandIraq,thechiefIranianreligiousleader,AyatollahAliKhamenei,calledfor
aholywaragainsttheWest:"ThestruggleagainstAmericanaggression,greed,plansandpolicieswill
becountedasajihad,andanybodywhoiskilledonthatpathisamartyr.""Thisisawar,"King
HusseinofJordanargued,"againstallArabsandallMuslimsandnotagainstIraqalone."

TherallyingofsubstantialsectionsofArabelitesandpublicsbehindSaddamHusseincausedthose
ArabgovernmentsintheantiIraqcoalitiontomoderatetheiractivitiesandtempertheirpublic
statements.ArabgovernmentsopposedordistancedthemselvesfromsubsequentWesterneffortsto
applypressureonIraq,includingenforcementofanoflyzoneinthesummerof1992andthebombing
ofIraqinJanuary1993.TheWesternSovietTurkishArabantiIraqcoalitionof1990hadby1993
becomeacoalitionofalmostonlytheWestandKuwaitagainstIraq.

MuslimscontrastedWesternactionsagainstIraqwiththeWest'sfailuretoprotectBosniansagainst
SerbsandtoimposesanctionsonIsraelforviolatingU.N.resolutions.TheWest,theyalleged,was
usingadoublestandard.Aworldofclashingcivilizations,however,isinevitablyaworldofdouble
standards:peopleapplyonestandardtotheirkincountriesandadifferentstandardtoothers.

Second,thekincountrysyndromealsoappearedinconflictsintheformerSovietUnion.Armenian
militarysuccessesin1992and1993stimulatedTurkeytobecomeincreasinglysupportiveofits
religious,ethnicandlinguisticbrethreninAzerbaijan."WehaveaTurkishnationfeelingthesame
sentimentsastheAzerbaijanis,"saidoneTurkishofficialin1992."Weareunderpressure.Our
newspapersarefullofthephotosofatrocitiesandareaskingusifwearestillseriousaboutpursuing
ourneutralpolicy.MaybeweshouldshowArmeniathatthere'sabigTurkeyintheregion."President
Turgutzalagreed,remarkingthatTurkeyshouldatleast"scaretheArmeniansalittlebit."Turkey,
zalthreatenedagainin1993,would"showitsfangs."TurkishAirForcejetsflewreconnaissance
flightsalongtheArmenianborder;TurkeysuspendedfoodshipmentsandairflightstoArmenia;and
TurkeyandIranannouncedtheywouldnotacceptdismembermentofAzerbaijan.Inthelastyearsof
itsexistence,theSovietgovernmentsupportedAzerbaijanbecauseitsgovernmentwasdominatedby
formercommunists.WiththeendoftheSovietUnion,however,politicalconsiderationsgavewayto
religiousones.RussiantroopsfoughtonthesideoftheArmenians,andAzerbaijanaccusedthe
"Russiangovernmentofturning180degrees"towardsupportforChristianArmenia.

Third,withrespecttothefightingintheformerYugoslavia,Westernpublicsmanifestedsympathyand
supportfortheBosnianMuslimsandthehorrorstheysufferedatthehandsoftheSerbs.Relatively
littleconcernwasexpressed,however,overCroatianattacksonMuslimsandparticipationinthe
dismembermentofBosniaHerzegovina.IntheearlystagesoftheYugoslavbreakup,Germany,inan
unusualdisplayofdiplomaticinitiativeandmuscle,inducedtheother11membersoftheEuropean
CommunitytofollowitsleadinrecognizingSloveniaandCroatia.Asaresultofthepope's
determinationtoprovidestrongbackingtothetwoCatholiccountries,theVaticanextended
recognitionevenbeforetheCommunitydid.TheUnitedStatesfollowedtheEuropeanlead.Thusthe
leadingactorsinWesterncivilizationralliedbehindtheircoreligionists.SubsequentlyCroatiawas
reportedtobereceivingsubstantialquantitiesofarmsfromCentralEuropeanandotherWestern
countries.BorisYeltsin'sgovernment,ontheotherhand,attemptedtopursueamiddlecoursethat
wouldbesympathetictotheOrthodoxSerbsbutnotalienateRussiafromtheWest.Russian
conservativeandnationalistgroups,however,includingmanylegislators,attackedthegovernmentfor
notbeingmoreforthcominginitssupportfortheSerbs.Byearly1993severalhundredRussians
apparentlywereservingwiththeSerbianforces,andreportscirculatedofRussianarmsbeingsupplied
toSerbia.

Islamicgovernmentsandgroups,ontheotherhand,castigatedtheWestfornotcomingtothedefense
oftheBosnians.IranianleadersurgedMuslimsfromallcountriestoprovidehelptoBosnia;in
violationoftheU.N.armsembargo,IransuppliedweaponsandmenfortheBosnians;Iranian
supportedLebanesegroupssentguerrillastotrainandorganizetheBosnianforces.In1993upto4,000
MuslimsfromovertwodozenIslamiccountrieswerereportedtobefightinginBosnia.The
governmentsofSaudiArabiaandothercountriesfeltunderincreasingpressurefromfundamentalist
groupsintheirownsocietiestoprovidemorevigoroussupportfortheBosnians.Bytheendof1992,
SaudiArabiahadreportedlysuppliedsubstantialfundingforweaponsandsuppliesfortheBosnians,
whichsignificantlyincreasedtheirmilitarycapabilitiesvisvistheSerbs.

Inthe1930stheSpanishCivilWarprovokedinterventionfromcountriesthatpoliticallywerefascist,
communistanddemocratic.Inthe1990stheYugoslavconflictisprovokinginterventionfrom
countriesthatareMuslim,OrthodoxandWesternChristian.Theparallelhasnotgoneunnoticed."The
warinBosniaHerzegovinahasbecometheemotionalequivalentofthefightagainstfascisminthe
SpanishCivilWar,"oneSaudieditorobserved."Thosewhodiedthereareregardedasmartyrswho
triedtosavetheirfellowMuslims."

Conflictsandviolencewillalsooccurbetweenstatesandgroupswithinthesamecivilization.Such
conflicts,however,arelikelytobelessintenseandlesslikelytoexpandthanconflictsbetween
civilizations.Commonmembershipinacivilizationreducestheprobabilityofviolenceinsituations
whereitmightotherwiseoccur.In1991and1992manypeoplewerealarmedbythepossibilityof
violentconflictbetweenRussiaandUkraineoverterritory,particularlyCrimea,theBlackSeafleet,
nuclearweaponsandeconomicissues.Ifcivilizationiswhatcounts,however,thelikelihoodof
violencebetweenUkrainiansandRussiansshouldbelow.TheyaretwoSlavic,primarilyOrthodox
peopleswhohavehadcloserelationshipswitheachotherforcenturies.Asofearly1993,despiteallthe
reasonsforconflict,theleadersofthetwocountrieswereeffectivelynegotiatinganddefusingthe
issuesbetweenthetwocountries.WhiletherehasbeenseriousfightingbetweenMuslimsand
ChristianselsewhereintheformerSovietUnionandmuchtensionandsomefightingbetweenWestern
andOrthodoxChristiansintheBalticstates,therehasbeenvirtuallynoviolencebetweenRussiansand
Ukrainians.

Civilizationrallyingtodatehasbeenlimited,butithasbeengrowing,anditclearlyhasthepotentialto
spreadmuchfurther.AstheconflictsinthePersianGulf,theCaucasusandBosniacontinued,the
positionsofnationsandthecleavagesbetweenthemincreasinglywerealongcivilizationallines.
Populistpoliticians,religiousleadersandthemediahavefounditapotentmeansofarousingmass
supportandofpressuringhesitantgovernments.Inthecomingyears,thelocalconflictsmostlikelyto
escalateintomajorwarswillbethose,asinBosniaandtheCaucasus,alongthefaultlinesbetween
civilizations.Thenextworldwar,ifthereisone,willbeawarbetweencivilizations.

THEWESTVERSUSTHEREST

Thewestisnowatanextraordinarypeakofpowerinrelationtoothercivilizations.Itssuperpower
opponenthasdisappearedfromthemap.MilitaryconflictamongWesternstatesisunthinkable,and
Westernmilitarypowerisunrivaled.ApartfromJapan,theWestfacesnoeconomicchallenge.It
dominatesinternationalpoliticalandsecurityinstitutionsandwithJapaninternationaleconomic
institutions.GlobalpoliticalandsecurityissuesareeffectivelysettledbyadirectorateoftheUnited
States,BritainandFrance,worldeconomicissuesbyadirectorateoftheUnitedStates,Germanyand
Japan,allofwhichmaintainextraordinarilycloserelationswitheachothertotheexclusionoflesser
andlargelynonWesterncountries.DecisionsmadeattheU.N.SecurityCouncilorintheInternational
MonetaryFundthatreflecttheinterestsoftheWestarepresentedtotheworldasreflectingthedesires
oftheworldcommunity.Theveryphrase"theworldcommunity"hasbecometheeuphemistic
collectivenoun(replacing"theFreeWorld")togivegloballegitimacytoactionsreflectingtheinterests
oftheUnitedStatesandotherWesternpowers.ThroughtheIMFandotherinternationaleconomic
institutions,theWestpromotesitseconomicinterestsandimposesonothernationstheeconomic
policiesitthinksappropriate.InanypollofnonWesternpeoples,theIMFundoubtedlywouldwinthe
supportoffinanceministersandafewothers,butgetanoverwhelminglyunfavorableratingfromjust
abouteveryoneelse,whowouldagreewithGeorgyArbatov'scharacterizationofIMFofficialsas"neo
Bolshevikswholoveexpropriatingotherpeople'smoney,imposingundemocraticandalienrulesof
economicandpoliticalconductandstiflingeconomicfreedom."

WesterndominationoftheU.N.SecurityCouncilanditsdecisions,temperedonlybyoccasional
abstentionbyChina,producedU.N.legitimationoftheWest'suseofforcetodriveIraqoutofKuwait
anditseliminationofIraq'ssophisticatedweaponsandcapacitytoproducesuchweapons.Italso
producedthequiteunprecedentedactionbytheUnitedStates,BritainandFranceingettingthe
SecurityCounciltodemandthatLibyahandoverthePanAm103bombingsuspectsandthento
imposesanctionswhenLibyarefused.AfterdefeatingthelargestArabarmy,theWestdidnothesitate
tothrowitsweightaroundintheArabworld.TheWestineffectisusinginternationalinstitutions,
militarypowerandeconomicresourcestoruntheworldinwaysthatwillmaintainWestern
predominance,protectWesterninterestsandpromoteWesternpoliticalandeconomicvalues.

ThatatleastisthewayinwhichnonWesternersseethenewworld,andthereisasignificantelement
oftruthintheirview.Differencesinpowerandstrugglesformilitary,economicandinstitutionalpower
arethusonesourceofconflictbetweentheWestandothercivilizations.Differencesinculture,thatis
basicvaluesandbeliefs,areasecondsourceofconflict.V.S.NaipaulhasarguedthatWestern
civilizationisthe"universalcivilization"that"fitsallmen."AtasuperficiallevelmuchofWestern
culturehasindeedpermeatedtherestoftheworld.Atamorebasiclevel,however,Westernconcepts
differfundamentallyfromthoseprevalentinothercivilizations.Westernideasofindividualism,
liberalism,constitutionalism,humanrights,equality,liberty,theruleoflaw,democracy,freemarkets,
theseparationofchurchandstate,oftenhavelittleresonanceinIslamic,Confucian,Japanese,Hindu,
BuddhistorOrthodoxcultures.Westerneffortstopropagatesuchideasproduceinsteadareaction
against"humanrightsimperialism"andareaffirmationofindigenousvalues,ascanbeseeninthe
supportforreligiousfundamentalismbytheyoungergenerationinnonWesterncultures.Thevery
notionthattherecouldbea"universalcivilization"isaWesternidea,directlyatoddswiththe
particularismofmostAsiansocietiesandtheiremphasisonwhatdistinguishesonepeoplefrom
another.Indeed,theauthorofareviewof100comparativestudiesofvaluesindifferentsocieties
concludedthat"thevaluesthataremostimportantintheWestareleastimportantworldwide."Inthe
politicalrealm,ofcourse,thesedifferencesaremostmanifestintheeffortsoftheUnitedStatesand
otherWesternpowerstoinduceotherpeoplestoadoptWesternideasconcerningdemocracyand
humanrights.ModerndemocraticgovernmentoriginatedintheWest.Whenithasdevelopedinnon
WesternsocietiesithasusuallybeentheproductofWesterncolonialismorimposition.

Thecentralaxisofworldpoliticsinthefutureislikelytobe,inKishoreMahbubani'sphrase,the
conflictbetween"theWestandtheRest"andtheresponsesofnonWesterncivilizationstoWestern
powerandvalues.Thoseresponsesgenerallytakeoneoracombinationofthreeforms.Atoneextreme,
nonWesternstatescan,likeBurmaandNorthKorea,attempttopursueacourseofisolation,to
insulatetheirsocietiesfrompenetrationor"corruption"bytheWest,and,ineffect,tooptoutof
participationintheWesterndominatedglobalcommunity.Thecostsofthiscourse,however,arehigh,
andfewstateshavepursueditexclusively.Asecondalternative,theequivalentof"bandwagoning"in
internationalrelationstheory,istoattempttojointheWestandacceptitsvaluesandinstitutions.The
thirdalternativeistoattemptto"balance"theWestbydevelopingeconomicandmilitarypowerand
cooperatingwithothernonWesternsocietiesagainsttheWest,whilepreservingindigenousvaluesand
institutions;inshort,tomodernizebutnottoWesternize.

THETORNCOUNTRIES

Inthefuture,aspeopledifferentiatethemselvesbycivilization,countrieswithlargenumbersof
peoplesofdifferentcivilizations,suchastheSovietUnionandYugoslavia,arecandidatesfor
dismemberment.Someothercountrieshaveafairdegreeofculturalhomogeneitybutaredividedover
whethertheirsocietybelongstoonecivilizationoranother.Thesearetorncountries.Theirleaders
typicallywishtopursueabandwagoningstrategyandtomaketheircountriesmembersoftheWest,
butthehistory,cultureandtraditionsoftheircountriesarenonWestern.Themostobviousand
prototypicaltorncountryisTurkey.ThelatetwentiethcenturyleadersofTurkeyhavefollowedinthe
AttatrktraditionanddefinedTurkeyasamodern,secular,Westernnationstate.TheyalliedTurkey
withtheWestinNATOandintheGulfWar;theyappliedformembershipintheEuropean
Community.Atthesametime,however,elementsinTurkishsocietyhavesupportedanIslamicrevival
andhavearguedthatTurkeyisbasicallyaMiddleEasternMuslimsociety.Inaddition,whiletheelite
ofTurkeyhasdefinedTurkeyasaWesternsociety,theeliteoftheWestrefusestoacceptTurkeyas
such.TurkeywillnotbecomeamemberoftheEuropeanCommunity,andtherealreason,asPresident
zalsaid,"isthatweareMuslimandtheyareChristianandtheydon'tsaythat."Havingrejected
Mecca,andthenbeingrejectedbyBrussels,wheredoesTurkeylook?Tashkentmaybetheanswer.
TheendoftheSovietUniongivesTurkeytheopportunitytobecometheleaderofarevivedTurkic
civilizationinvolvingsevencountriesfromthebordersofGreecetothoseofChina.Encouragedbythe
West,Turkeyismakingstrenuouseffortstocarveoutthisnewidentityforitself.

DuringthepastdecadeMexicohasassumedapositionsomewhatsimilartothatofTurkey.Justas
TurkeyabandoneditshistoricoppositiontoEuropeandattemptedtojoinEurope,Mexicohasstopped
definingitselfbyitsoppositiontotheUnitedStatesandisinsteadattemptingtoimitatetheUnited
StatesandtojoinitintheNorthAmericanFreeTradeArea.Mexicanleadersareengagedinthegreat
taskofredefiningMexicanidentityandhaveintroducedfundamentaleconomicreformsthateventually
willleadtofundamentalpoliticalchange.In1991atopadvisertoPresidentCarlosSalinasdeGortari
describedatlengthtomeallthechangestheSalinasgovernmentwasmaking.Whenhefinished,I
remarked:"That'smostimpressive.ItseemstomethatbasicallyyouwanttochangeMexicofroma
LatinAmericancountryintoaNorthAmericancountry."Helookedatmewithsurpriseandexclaimed:
"Exactly!That'spreciselywhatwearetryingtodo,butofcoursewecouldneversaysopublicly."As
hisremarkindicates,inMexicoasinTurkey,significantelementsinsocietyresisttheredefinitionof
theircountry'sidentity.InTurkey,EuropeanorientedleadershavetomakegesturestoIslam(zal's
pilgrimagetoMecca);soalsoMexico'sNorthAmericanorientedleadershavetomakegesturesto
thosewhoholdMexicotobeaLatinAmericancountry(Salinas'IberoAmericanGuadalajarasummit).

HistoricallyTurkeyhasbeenthemostprofoundlytorncountry.FortheUnitedStates,Mexicoisthe
mostimmediatetorncountry.GloballythemostimportanttorncountryisRussia.Thequestionof
whetherRussiaispartoftheWestortheleaderofadistinctSlavicOrthodoxcivilizationhasbeena
recurringoneinRussianhistory.ThatissuewasobscuredbythecommunistvictoryinRussia,which
importedaWesternideology,adaptedittoRussianconditionsandthenchallengedtheWestinthe
nameofthatideology.ThedominanceofcommunismshutoffthehistoricdebateoverWesternization
versusRussification.WithcommunismdiscreditedRussiansonceagainfacethatquestion.

PresidentYeltsinisadoptingWesternprinciplesandgoalsandseekingtomakeRussiaa"normal"
countryandapartoftheWest.YetboththeRussianeliteandtheRussianpublicaredividedonthis
issue.Amongthemoremoderatedissenters,SergeiStankevicharguesthatRussiashouldrejectthe
"Atlanticist"course,whichwouldleadit"tobecomeEuropean,tobecomeapartoftheworldeconomy
inrapidandorganizedfashion,tobecometheeighthmemberoftheSeven,andtoputparticular
emphasisonGermanyandtheUnitedStatesasthetwodominantmembersoftheAtlanticalliance."
WhilealsorejectinganexclusivelyEurasianpolicy,StankevichnonethelessarguesthatRussiashould
giveprioritytotheprotectionofRussiansinothercountries,emphasizeitsTurkicandMuslim
connections,andpromote"anappreciableredistributionofourresources,ouroptions,ourties,andour
interestsinfavorofAsia,oftheeasterndirection."PeopleofthispersuasioncriticizeYeltsinfor
subordinatingRussia'sintereststothoseoftheWest,forreducingRussianmilitarystrength,forfailing
tosupporttraditionalfriendssuchasSerbia,andforpushingeconomicandpoliticalreforminways
injurioustotheRussianpeople.IndicativeofthistrendisthenewpopularityoftheideasofPetr
Savitsky,whointhe1920sarguedthatRussiawasauniqueEurasiancivilization.Moreextreme
dissidentsvoicemuchmoreblatantlynationalist,antiWesternandantiSemiticviews,andurgeRussia
toredevelopitsmilitarystrengthandtoestablishclosertieswithChinaandMuslimcountries.The
peopleofRussiaareasdividedastheelite.AnopinionsurveyinEuropeanRussiainthespringof
1992revealedthat40percentofthepublichadpositiveattitudestowardtheWestand36percenthad
negativeattitudes.Asithasbeenformuchofitshistory,Russiaintheearly1990sistrulyatorn
country.

Toredefineitscivilizationidentity,atorncountrymustmeetthreerequirements.First,itspoliticaland
economicelitehastobegenerallysupportiveofandenthusiasticaboutthismove.Second,itspublic
hastobewillingtoacquiesceintheredefinition.Third,thedominantgroupsintherecipient
civilizationhavetobewillingtoembracetheconvert.Allthreerequirementsinlargepartexistwith
respecttoMexico.ThefirsttwoinlargepartexistwithrespecttoTurkey.Itisnotclearthatanyof
themexistwithrespecttoRussia'sjoiningtheWest.Theconflictbetweenliberaldemocracyand
MarxismLeninismwasbetweenideologieswhich,despitetheirmajordifferences,ostensiblyshared
ultimategoalsoffreedom,equalityandprosperity.Atraditional,authoritarian,nationalistRussiacould
havequitedifferentgoals.AWesterndemocratcouldcarryonanintellectualdebatewithaSoviet
Marxist.ItwouldbevirtuallyimpossibleforhimtodothatwithaRussiantraditionalist.If,asthe
RussiansstopbehavinglikeMarxists,theyrejectliberaldemocracyandbeginbehavinglikeRussians
butnotlikeWesterners,therelationsbetweenRussiaandtheWestcouldagainbecomedistantand
conflictual.

THECONFUCIANISLAMICCONNECTION

TheobstaclestononWesterncountriesjoiningtheWestvaryconsiderably.TheyareleastforLatin
AmericanandEastEuropeancountries.TheyaregreaterfortheOrthodoxcountriesoftheformer
SovietUnion.TheyarestillgreaterforMuslim,Confucian,HinduandBuddhistsocieties.Japanhas
establishedauniquepositionforitselfasanassociatememberoftheWest:itisintheWestinsome
respectsbutclearlynotoftheWestinimportantdimensions.Thosecountriesthatforreasonofculture
andpowerdonotwishto,orcannot,jointheWestcompetewiththeWestbydevelopingtheirown
economic,militaryandpoliticalpower.Theydothisbypromotingtheirinternaldevelopmentandby
cooperatingwithothernonWesterncountries.Themostprominentformofthiscooperationisthe
ConfucianIslamicconnectionthathasemergedtochallengeWesterninterests,valuesandpower.

Almostwithoutexception,Westerncountriesarereducingtheirmilitarypower;underYeltsin's
leadershipsoalsoisRussia.China,NorthKoreaandseveralMiddleEasternstates,however,are
significantlyexpandingtheirmilitarycapabilities.Theyaredoingthisbytheimportofarmsfrom
WesternandnonWesternsourcesandbythedevelopmentofindigenousarmsindustries.Oneresultis
theemergenceofwhatCharlesKrauthammerhascalled"WeaponStates,"andtheWeaponStatesare
notWesternstates.Anotherresultistheredefinitionofarmscontrol,whichisaWesternconceptanda
Westerngoal.DuringtheColdWartheprimarypurposeofarmscontrolwastoestablishastable
militarybalancebetweentheUnitedStatesanditsalliesandtheSovietUnionanditsallies.Inthepost
ColdWarworldtheprimaryobjectiveofarmscontrolistopreventthedevelopmentbynonWestern
societiesofmilitarycapabilitiesthatcouldthreatenWesterninterests.TheWestattemptstodothis
throughinternationalagreements,economicpressureandcontrolsonthetransferofarmsandweapons
technologies.

TheconflictbetweentheWestandtheConfucianIslamicstatesfocuseslargely,althoughnot
exclusively,onnuclear,chemicalandbiologicalweapons,ballisticmissilesandothersophisticated
meansfordeliveringthem,andtheguidance,intelligenceandotherelectroniccapabilitiesfor
achievingthatgoal.TheWestpromotesnonproliferationasauniversalnormandnonproliferation
treatiesandinspectionsasmeansofrealizingthatnorm.Italsothreatensavarietyofsanctionsagainst
thosewhopromotethespreadofsophisticatedweaponsandproposessomebenefitsforthosewhodo
not.TheattentionoftheWestfocuses,naturally,onnationsthatareactuallyorpotentiallyhostileto
theWest.

ThenonWesternnations,ontheotherhand,asserttheirrighttoacquireandtodeploywhatever
weaponstheythinknecessaryfortheirsecurity.Theyalsohaveabsorbed,tothefull,thetruthofthe
responseoftheIndiandefenseministerwhenaskedwhatlessonhelearnedfromtheGulfWar:"Don't
fighttheUnitedStatesunlessyouhavenuclearweapons."Nuclearweapons,chemicalweaponsand
missilesareviewed,probablyerroneously,asthepotentialequalizerofsuperiorWesternconventional
power.China,ofcourse,alreadyhasnuclearweapons;PakistanandIndiahavethecapabilitytodeploy
them.NorthKorea,Iran,Iraq,LibyaandAlgeriaappeartobeattemptingtoacquirethem.AtopIranian
officialhasdeclaredthatallMuslimstatesshouldacquirenuclearweapons,andin1988thepresident
ofIranreportedlyissuedadirectivecallingfordevelopmentof"offensiveanddefensivechemical,
biologicalandradiologicalweapons."

CentrallyimportanttothedevelopmentofcounterWestmilitarycapabilitiesisthesustainedexpansion
ofChina'smilitarypoweranditsmeanstocreatemilitarypower.Buoyedbyspectaculareconomic
development,Chinaisrapidlyincreasingitsmilitaryspendingandvigorouslymovingforwardwiththe
modernizationofitsarmedforces.ItispurchasingweaponsfromtheformerSovietstates;itis
developinglongrangemissiles;in1992ittestedaonemegatonnucleardevice.Itisdevelopingpower
projectioncapabilities,acquiringaerialrefuelingtechnology,andtryingtopurchaseanaircraftcarrier.
ItsmilitarybuildupandassertionofsovereigntyovertheSouthChinaSeaareprovokingamultilateral
regionalarmsraceinEastAsia.Chinaisalsoamajorexporterofarmsandweaponstechnology.Ithas
exportedmaterialstoLibyaandIraqthatcouldbeusedtomanufacturenuclearweaponsandnervegas.
IthashelpedAlgeriabuildareactorsuitablefornuclearweaponsresearchandproduction.Chinahas
soldtoIrannucleartechnologythatAmericanofficialsbelievecouldonlybeusedtocreateweapons
andapparentlyhasshippedcomponentsof300milerangemissilestoPakistan.NorthKoreahashada
nuclearweaponsprogramunderwayforsomewhileandhassoldadvancedmissilesandmissile
technologytoSyriaandIran.TheflowofweaponsandweaponstechnologyisgenerallyfromEast
AsiatotheMiddleEast.Thereis,however,somemovementinthereversedirection;Chinahas
receivedStingermissilesfromPakistan.

AConfucianIslamicmilitaryconnectionhasthuscomeintobeing,designedtopromoteacquisitionby
itsmembersoftheweaponsandweaponstechnologiesneededtocounterthemilitarypowerofthe
West.Itmayormaynotlast.Atpresent,however,itis,asDaveMcCurdyhassaid,"arenegades'
mutualsupportpact,runbytheproliferatorsandtheirbackers."Anewformofarmscompetitionis
thusoccurringbetweenIslamicConfucianstatesandtheWest.Inanoldfashionedarmsrace,each
sidedevelopeditsownarmstobalanceortoachievesuperiorityagainsttheotherside.Inthisnew
formofarmscompetition,onesideisdevelopingitsarmsandtheothersideisattemptingnotto
balancebuttolimitandpreventthatarmsbuildupwhileatthesametimereducingitsownmilitary
capabilities.

IMPLICATIONSFORTHEWEST
Thisarticledoesnotarguethatcivilizationidentitieswillreplaceallotheridentities,thatnationstates
willdisappear,thateachcivilizationwillbecomeasinglecoherentpoliticalentity,thatgroupswithina
civilizationwillnotconflictwithandevenfighteachother.Thispaperdoessetforththehypotheses
thatdifferencesbetweencivilizationsarerealandimportant;civilizationconsciousnessisincreasing;
conflictbetweencivilizationswillsupplantideologicalandotherformsofconflictasthedominant
globalformofconflict;internationalrelations,historicallyagameplayedoutwithinWestern
civilization,willincreasinglybedeWesternizedandbecomeagameinwhichnonWestern
civilizationsareactorsandnotsimplyobjects;successfulpolitical,securityandeconomicinternational
institutionsaremorelikelytodevelopwithincivilizationsthanacrosscivilizations;conflictsbetween
groupsindifferentcivilizationswillbemorefrequent,moresustainedandmoreviolentthanconflicts
betweengroupsinthesamecivilization;violentconflictsbetweengroupsindifferentcivilizationsare
themostlikelyandmostdangeroussourceofescalationthatcouldleadtoglobalwars;theparamount
axisofworldpoliticswillbetherelationsbetween"theWestandtheRest";theelitesinsometornnon
WesterncountrieswilltrytomaketheircountriespartoftheWest,butinmostcasesfacemajor
obstaclestoaccomplishingthis;acentralfocusofconflictfortheimmediatefuturewillbebetweenthe
WestandseveralIslamicConfucianstates.

Thisisnottoadvocatethedesirabilityofconflictsbetweencivilizations.Itistosetforthdescriptive
hypothesesastowhatthefuturemaybelike.Iftheseareplausiblehypotheses,however,itisnecessary
toconsidertheirimplicationsforWesternpolicy.Theseimplicationsshouldbedividedbetweenshort
termadvantageandlongtermaccommodation.IntheshorttermitisclearlyintheinterestoftheWest
topromotegreatercooperationandunitywithinitsowncivilization,particularlybetweenitsEuropean
andNorthAmericancomponents;toincorporateintotheWestsocietiesinEasternEuropeandLatin
AmericawhoseculturesareclosetothoseoftheWest;topromoteandmaintaincooperativerelations
withRussiaandJapan;topreventescalationoflocalintercivilizationconflictsintomajorinter
civilizationwars;tolimittheexpansionofthemilitarystrengthofConfucianandIslamicstates;to
moderatethereductionofWesternmilitarycapabilitiesandmaintainmilitarysuperiorityinEastand
SouthwestAsia;toexploitdifferencesandconflictsamongConfucianandIslamicstates;tosupportin
othercivilizationsgroupssympathetictoWesternvaluesandinterests;tostrengtheninternational
institutionsthatreflectandlegitimateWesterninterestsandvaluesandtopromotetheinvolvementof
nonWesternstatesinthoseinstitutions.

Inthelongertermothermeasureswouldbecalledfor.WesterncivilizationisbothWesternand
modern.NonWesterncivilizationshaveattemptedtobecomemodernwithoutbecomingWestern.To
dateonlyJapanhasfullysucceededinthisquest.NonWesterncivilizationswillcontinuetoattemptto
acquirethewealth,technology,skills,machinesandweaponsthatarepartofbeingmodern.Theywill
alsoattempttoreconcilethismodernitywiththeirtraditionalcultureandvalues.Theireconomicand
militarystrengthrelativetotheWestwillincrease.HencetheWestwillincreasinglyhaveto
accommodatethesenonWesternmoderncivilizationswhosepowerapproachesthatoftheWestbut
whosevaluesandinterestsdiffersignificantlyfromthoseoftheWest.ThiswillrequiretheWestto
maintaintheeconomicandmilitarypowernecessarytoprotectitsinterestsinrelationtothese
civilizations.Itwillalso,however,requiretheWesttodevelopamoreprofoundunderstandingofthe
basicreligiousandphilosophicalassumptionsunderlyingothercivilizationsandthewaysinwhich
peopleinthosecivilizationsseetheirinterests.Itwillrequireanefforttoidentifyelementsof
commonalitybetweenWesternandothercivilizations.Fortherelevantfuture,therewillbeno
universalcivilization,butinsteadaworldofdifferentcivilizations,eachofwhichwillhavetolearnto
coexistwiththeothers.