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Outcry vs. disdain? Understanding


public support for proposals to improve
Parliament and elections in Uganda
Findings from Afrobarometer Round 7 survey

HATCHILE CONSULT LTD


Social Research and Integrated Business Consultancy
At a glance

Overwhelming public support for reform: Large majorities


favour reform proposals designed to improve Parliament
and elections.

Cross-cutting support: Support for reform transcends political


and demographic differences.

Most popular reforms: Improving electoral transparency,


reducing size of Parliament, and launching a national
dialogue over 2016 elections are among the most strongly
supported proposals.
What is Afrobarometer?

A pan-African, non-partisan survey research project that


measures citizen attitudes on democracy and governance,
the economy, civil society, and other topics.

Started in 12 African countries in 1999, expanded to 36


countries in Round 6 (2014/2015). Round 7 surveys are being
conducted in 2016/2017.

Goal: To give the public a voice in policymaking by providing


high-quality public opinion data to policymakers, policy
advocates, civil society organizations, academics, news
media, donors and investors, and ordinary Africans.

A national partner in each country conducts the survey. In


Uganda, Afrobarometer Round 7 survey was conducted by
Hatchile Consult Ltd.
Where Afrobarometer works
Methodology
Nationally representative sample of adult citizens
All respondents are randomly selected.
Sample is distributed across 5 regions (Kampala, Central, West, North,
and East) and urban/rural areas in proportion to their share in the
national population.
Every adult citizen has an equal chance of being selected.
Face-to-face interviews in the language of the respondents
choice.
Standard questionnaire allows comparisons across countries and
over time.
Sample size in Uganda of 1,200 adult citizens yields a margin of
error of +/-3% at a 95% confidence level.
Fieldwork for Round 7 in Uganda was conducted between 26
December 2016 and 8 January 2017.
Survey coverage
Survey demographics
Gender %

Men 50
Women 50
Residence
Urban 25
Rural 75
Education
No formal education 13
Primary 45
Secondary 29
Post-secondary 13
Region
North 20
East 24
Central 24
West 26
Kampala 6
Age
18-24 24
25-34 31
35-44 21
45-54 12
55-64 7
65 and over 5
7
Findings
Public demand to improve
Parliament and elections
Key findings

Overwhelming majority of Ugandans support reforms to


improve Parliament and elections, especially transparency
in vote tallying, transmission, and declaration (96%).

Eight in 10 respondents (84%) agree with the need for a


national dialogue to resolve the countrys disagreements
following recent elections.

Eight in 10 respondents (79%) favour reducing the number of


MPs to save taxpayers money, and three-fourths (74%) say
MPs should not be given free cars.

Three-fourths of Ugandans (75%) support maintaining the


current constitutional age limit of 75 years on any person
seeking the office of president.
Support for proposals to improve Parliament
and elections | Uganda | 2017

Disagreements over 2016 elections highlight


84%
need for a national dialogue

For sake of national unity, losing candidates


82%
should accept election results

To reduce financial burden, reduce number


79%
of MPs

Facilitate MP acquisition of personal cars


74%
instead of free-car giveaways

To safeguard oversight role, stop MP


66%
appointments to cabinet

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Respondents were asked: For each of the following statements, please tell me whether you
agree or disagree. (% who agree or strongly agree)
Support for proposals to improve elections
| Uganda | 2017
Improve transparency during vote tallying,
96%
transimission, and declaration

Discourage use of forged qualification 92%

Hold electoral officials individually liable 89%

Tighten law on campaign finance and


89%
accountability

Increase time for determining presidential


74%
election petitions

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Respondents were asked: The quality of Ugandas elections have been described by many
stakeholders (including the opposition, ruling party, civil society, media, and voters) as poor
due to allegations of election irregularities and mismanagement. I am going to read from a list
of proposals aimed at improving the quality of Ugandas elections. For each of the following
proposals, please tell me whether you disagree or agree.
(% who agree or strongly agree with each statement)
Support for continued limit on age of president
| Uganda | 2017
1%

24% Maintain age limit of


75 years

Dismiss limit as
discriminatory

75% Dont know/Refused

Respondents were asked: Which of the following statements is closest to your view?
- Statement 1: The electoral law stopping any person older than 75 years from running as
president in this country should be maintained.
- Statement 2: Preventing persons older than 75 years from standing for election as president
is a form of discrimination and should not be allowed.
(% who agree or strongly agree with each statement)
Support for presidential term limit | Uganda
| 2002-2017
100%
85%
80%
80% 74% 72% 73% 75% 74%
68% 67%

60%

40%

20%

0%
2002 2008 2012 2015 2016
Uganda Afrobarometer average
Respondents were asked: Which of the following statements is closest to your view?
- Statement 1: The Constitution should limit the president to serving a maximum of two terms in office.
- Statement 2: There should be no constitutional limit on how long the president can serve.
(% who agree or strongly agree with Statement 1)
Support for presidential term limit | 36 African
countries | 2014/2015
100% 93%

80% 75%
67%

60%
50%

40%

20%

0%

Malawi

Tanzania
Morocco

Ghana

Liberia
Egypt

Uganda

Zimbabwe

Cte dIvoire

Sierra Leone
Burundi

Mauritius

Average

Swaziland

Niger
Kenya

Togo

Guinea
Mali
Botswana

Namibia

South Africa
Zambia
Mozambique
Lesotho

So Tom/Prncipe
Algeria
Sudan

Nigeria

Gabon
Cape Verde

Senegal

Tunisia

Benin
Madagascar

Cameroon

Burkina Faso
Respondents were asked: Which of the following statements is closest to your view?
- Statement 1: The Constitution should limit the president to serving a maximum of two terms in office.
- Statement 2: There should be no constitutional limit on how long the president can serve.
(% who agree or strongly agree with Statement 1)
Majority support most reform proposals | Uganda
| 2017
30%

26%
25%
23%
22%

20%

15%
12%

10%
7%

5% 4%
3%
2%
1%
0% 0% 0%
0%
None 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 all 12
Number of reform proposals supported

Figure shows percentage of respondents who agree or strongly agree with none of the
proposed reforms, one of the proposed reforms, two of the proposed reforms, etc.
Support for at least 10 of the 12 proposed reforms to
improve Parliament and elections | by gender and
residence | Uganda | 2017
Male 53%

Female 47%

Urban residence 52%

Rural residence 50%

Central 62%

Western 54%

Kampala 51%

Eastern 42%

Northern 41%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

(% who agree or strongly agree with at least 10 of the 12 proposed reforms)


Support for at least 10 of the 12 proposed reforms to
improve Parliament and elections | by age, education,
and political affiliation | Uganda | 2017
Feels close to other parties 53%
Feels close to NRM 49%

18 - 24 yrs 55%
55 and over 51%
25 - 34 yrs 50%
45 - 54 yrs 47%
35 - 44 yrs 47%

Post secondary school 55%


Primary school 52%
Secondary school 50%
No formal education 40%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

(% who agree or strongly agree with at least 10 of the 12 proposed reforms)


Perceptions of elections and previous
electoral-reform proposals
Key findings

Most Ugandans (83%) support regular, open, and honest


elections as the best way to choose their leaders, but fewer
than half (34%) say their most recent national election was
completely free and fair.

Regarding the quality of their elections, in 2015 only about


half of Ugandans said that votes are always or often
counted fairly (52%) and that elections function well to
ensure that voters views are reflected (49%) and that voters
can remove under-performing leaders (45%).

Electoral reforms proposed ahead of the 2016 elections


received strong support, including support to ban
candidates convicted of vote buying (86%), declaring
election results at constituency (80%), and ceasing
appointment of electoral commission officials by the
President.
Support for and quality of elections | Uganda | 2015
Elections are best method for choosing
86%
leaders (agree/strongly agree)

Previous election free and fair (completely


69%
or with minor problems)
Votes are always counted fairly 37%
Elections work well/very well to ensure that
49%
voters' views are reflected
Elections work well/very well to enable
45%
voters to remove non-performing leaders
Voters are never bribed 18%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%


Respondents were asked:
1. Which of the following statements is closest to your view: We should choose our leaders in this country through
regular, open, and honest elections. Statement 2: Since elections sometimes produce bad results, we should adopt
other methods for choosing this countrys leaders.
2. On the whole, how would you rate the freeness and fairness of the last national election, held in 2011?
3. In your opinion, how often are votes counted fairly in this countrys elections?
4. How well do elections ensure that members of Parliament reflect the views of voters?
5. How well do elections enable voters to remove from office leaders who do not do what the people want?
6. In your opinion, how often are voters bribed in this countrys elections?
Support for electoral reforms proposed ahead
of 2016 elections | Uganda | 2015
Ban those convicted of vote-buying from
86%
future elections

Declare election results at constituency level 80%

Bar president from appointing Electoral


57%
Commission members

Require presidential candidates to name


55%
running mates in advance

Bar voters who need special assistance from


33%
voting

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Respondents were asked: Do you agree or disagree with the following suggestions for electoral
reforms ahead of the 2016 general elections in Uganda? (% who agree or strongly agree)
Conclusions
Who wants electoral reforms in
Uganda?

Public support for proposals to improve Parliament and


elections is very high.

This support transcends political-party and demographic


differences and has endured past the 2016 election period.

Despite strong popular support, government has not


committed to a clear program of action to address reform
proposals.
Thank you

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