HDM-4 VOC Configuration For Nigeria

Government of the Federal Republic of Nigeria
Road Sector Development Team
Configuration and Calibration of HDM-4 to

Nigerian Conditions
Draft Final Report
Infrastructure Management Integrated Engineering

and Engineering Services Associates Limited
Limited Kaduna
Birmingham Nigeria
United Kingdom
February 2014
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................................. i

ACCRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ........................................................................................iii
LIST OF TABLES......................................................................................................................... iv
LIST OF FIGURES ...................................................................................................................... vi
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................................vii
1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................... 1
1.1 Background ...................................................................................................................... 1
1.2 Project Aim and Objectives .............................................................................................. 1
1.3 Project Scope ................................................................................................................... 2
1.4 The Study Team ............................................................................................................... 3
1.5 Purpose and Structure of the Report ................................................................................ 3
2 OVERALL STUDY METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................... 5
2.1 Introduction....................................................................................................................... 5
2.2 Configuration .................................................................................................................... 5
2.3 Calibration ........................................................................................................................ 5
2.4 Approach and Methodology .............................................................................................. 6
2.5 Stakeholder and Consultations ......................................................................................... 8
2.6 Main Assumptions ............................................................................................................ 9
3 FIELD SURVEYS, DATA COLLECTION AND PROCESSING .................................................. 11
3.1 Vehicle Fleet Characteristics and Unit Costs .................................................................. 11
3.2 Road Network Characteristics ........................................................................................ 24
3.3 Traffic Characteristics ..................................................................................................... 27
3.4 Road Works Data ........................................................................................................... 34
3.5 Recommendation ........................................................................................................... 34
4 ROAD DETERIORATION MODEL CALIBRATION .................................................................... 36
4.1 Introduction..................................................................................................................... 36
4.2 Climate Zones ................................................................................................................ 36
4.3 Parameter Sensitivity...................................................................................................... 40
4.4 Roughness Age Environment Factor ........................................................................ 41
4.5 Cracking Initiation and Progression ................................................................................ 43
4.6 Ravelling Initiation and Progression ............................................................................... 45
4.7 Rutting ............................................................................................................................ 45
4.8 Potholing ........................................................................................................................ 48
4.9 Edge Break..................................................................................................................... 48
4.10 Roughness ..................................................................................................................... 49
4.11 Gravel Loss on Unsealed Roads .................................................................................... 50
4.12 Rigid Concrete Pavements ............................................................................................. 51
5 ROAD WORKS EFFECTS MODEL CALIBRATION .................................................................. 52
5.1 Introduction..................................................................................................................... 52
5.2 Effects of Road Works .................................................................................................... 52
6 ROAD USER EFFECTS MODEL CALIBRATION ...................................................................... 54
6.1 Introduction..................................................................................................................... 54
6.2 Speed Prediction Model ................................................................................................. 54
i
TABLE OF CONTENTS
6.3 Side Friction ................................................................................................................... 56

6.4 Fuel Consumption .......................................................................................................... 60
6.5 Spare Parts Consumption .............................................................................................. 61
6.6 Tyre Wear....................................................................................................................... 62
6.7 Vehicle Exhaust Emissions ............................................................................................ 64
7 HDM-4 CONFIGURATION .......................................................................................................... 65
7.1 Climate Zones ................................................................................................................ 65
7.2 Traffic Flow Pattern ........................................................................................................ 65
7.3 Speed Flow Type............................................................................................................ 66
7.4 Road Network Aggregate Data ....................................................................................... 68
8 CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................................ 75
9 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................ 76
APPENDIX A: TERMS OF REFERENCE .................................................................................. 78
APPENDIX B: HDM-4 ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK ................................................................. 87
APPENDIX C: MINUTES OF NEGOTIATION MEETING .......................................................... 92
APPENDIX D: OBSERVED, CALIBRATED AND DEFAULT DETERIORATION PLOTS ......... 96
ii
ACCRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS
ACCRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS
AADT Annual Average Daily Traffic

ADT Average Daily Traffic
AfDB African Development Bank
CDB Construction Defect Indicator for the Road Base
CDS Construction Defect Indicator
COMP Relative compaction of the whole pavement
FCT Federal Capital Territory
FERMA Federal Road Maintenance Agency
FGN Federal Government of Nigeria
FMW Federal Ministry of Works
FRSC Federal Road Safety Corps
GDP Growth Domestic Product
HDM-4 Highway Development and Management Tools
IMES Infrastructure Management and Engineering Services Limited
IQL Information Quality Level
IRI International Roughness Index
LTTP Long Term Pavement Performance Sites
MT Motorised Traffic
NBOS National Bureau of Statistics
NWT Non-Work Time
PCSE Passenger Car Space Equivalence
RD Road Deterioration
RSDT Road Sector Development Team
RUE Road User Effects
SEE Social-Economic Effects
ToR Terms of Reference
TTC Travel Time Costs
VDF Vehicle Damage Factor
VEDSIR Desired Speed of Travel
VOC Vehicle Operating Costs
WB The World Bank
WE Works Effects
iii
LIST OF TABLES
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1.1: Project Scope ...................................................................................................... 2

Table 1.2: New vs Initial Schedule of Deliverables ............................................................... 2
Table 1.3: Consultants Team .............................................................................................. 3
Table 1.4: Counterpart Staff ................................................................................................. 3
Table 3.1: Vehicle Categories ............................................................................................ 12
Table 3.2: Basic Vehicle Fleet Characteristics.................................................................... 15
Table 3.3: Economic Costs of Vehicle Characteristics (in US Dollars) ................................ 16
Table 3.4: New and Replacement Vehicle Financial Prices ................................................ 19
Table 3.5: Existing Pavement Types .................................................................................. 25
Table 3.6: Pavement Age ................................................................................................... 26
Table 3.7: Number of Road Section ................................................................................... 26
Table 3.8: Minimum Sample Size Requirements ................................................................ 28
Table 3.9: Observed Free Speeds on Paved Roads .......................................................... 30
Table 3.10: Representative Traffic Flows on Federal Road Network .................................. 31
Table 3.11: Summary of Results of Independent Axle Load Survey ................................... 32
Table 4.1: Climate Zones ................................................................................................... 36
Table 4.2: Climate Zones Parameters ................................................................................ 39
Table 4.3: HDM-4 Sensitivity Classes ................................................................................ 40
Table 4.4: Sensitivity of Road Deterioration Models ........................................................... 40
Table 4.5: Number of Road Sections ................................................................................. 40
Table 4.6: Environmental Coefficient by Climate Zones .................................................... 42
Table 4.7: Road Construction and Drainage Effects Factor ............................................... 42
Table 4.8: Effective Environmental Coefficient ................................................................... 43
Table 4.9: Roughness-age-environment Calibration Factor (Kgm) .................................... 43
Table 4.10: Estimated Observed Time to Cracking Initiation .............................................. 44
Table 4.11: Summary of Cracking Initiation and Progression Factors ................................ 44
Table 4.12: Average Rut Depths by Climate Zone, Pavement Type and Age Group .......... 46
Table 4.13: Summary of Rutting Progression Calibration Factors ...................................... 47
Table 4.14: Average Edge Break by Climate Zone, Pavement Type and Age Group ......... 49
Table 4.15: Average Edge Break by Climate Zone, Pavement Type and Age Group ......... 49
Table 4.16: Typical Observed Gravel Loss......................................................................... 50
Table 4.17: Typical Observed Gravel Loss......................................................................... 50
Table 4.18: Summary of Observed and HDM-4 Predicted Gravel loss and Calibration Factor
51
iv
LIST OF TABLES
Table 5.1: Summary of class, type of works (activities) and effects adapted for Nigeria ..... 53
Table 6.1: Estimated " Values for each Representative Vehicle ...................................... 55
Table 6.2: Vehicle Driving Power ....................................................................................... 56
Table 6.3: Rating Friction due to MT .................................................................................. 57
Table 6.4: Estimated " Values for each Representative Vehicle ...................................... 60
Table 6.5: Parts Consumption Data and Model Calibration Factors ................................... 61
Table 6.6: Calibration Coefficient for Tyre Wear Model ...................................................... 63
Table 7.1: Traffic Flow Pattern ........................................................................................... 66
Table 7.2: Capacity and speed-flow model parameters ...................................................... 68
Table 7.3: Default Traffic Volume on Bituminous Roads .................................................... 70
Table 7.4: Default Traffic Volumes on Unsealed Roads ..................................................... 70
Table 7.5: Default Geometry Characteristics ...................................................................... 71
Table 7.6: Default Construction Defect Indicators .............................................................. 71
Table 7.7: Default SNP Values ........................................................................................... 72
Table 7.8: Default Pavement Layer Thicknesses ............................................................... 72
Table 7.9: Default Riding Quality Data ............................................................................... 72
Table 7.10: Paved Surface Condition Default Values ......................................................... 73
Table 7.11: Unsealed Surface Condition Default Values .................................................... 73
Table 7.12: Default Texture/Skid Resistance Values .......................................................... 74
v
LIST OF FIGURES
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 2.1: Study Methodology ............................................................................................ 7

Figure 2.2: The impact of the accuracy of data on road deterioration predictions .............. 9
Figure 2.3: Concept of Information Quality Level................................................................ 10
Figure 3.1: Illustration of Moving Car Observer Study ........................................................ 29
Figure 3.2: Schematic Representation of ADT on Federal Road Network .......................... 33
Figure 3.3: Schematic Representation of Heavy Vehicle ADT on Federal Road Network ... 34
Figure 4.1: Map of Annual Rainfall in Nigeria including Proposed Climate Zones............... 37
Figure 4.2: Map of Annual Minimum Temperature ............................................................. 37
Figure 4.3: Map of Annual Maximum Temperature ............................................................ 38
Figure 4.4: Plot of Environmental Coefficient with Mean Annual Rainfall ............................ 42
Figure 6.1: High level of friction .......................................................................................... 58
Figure 6.2: Intermediate level of friction, high level of road side activities ........................... 58
Figure 6.3: Intermediate level of friction due to presence of animals .................................. 59
Figure 6.4: Low level of friction........................................................................................... 59
Figure 6.5: Standard Tyre Typology ................................................................................... 62
Figure 7.1: Illustration of Speed Flow Model ...................................................................... 67
vi
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This is the draft final report of the study titled Configuration and Calibration of HDM-4 to
Conditions in Nigeria. The purpose of the study is to improve decision-making on
expenditures in the road sector in Nigeria by enabling effective and sustainable utilisation of
the latest HDM-4 knowledge. The study basis for an effective implementation of decision-
support methods and computerised tools for use by the Federal Ministry of Works (FMW),
Road Sector Development Team (RSDT), Federal Road Maintenance Agency (FERMA) and
other related agencies to achieve sustainable operation of Nigerian road management system.
The adaptation of the model for Nigeria was based data from field studies carried out as well
as data from statutory agencies. Data collected and analysed for aspects of the assignment
were on climate, vehicle operating cost, traffic characteristics and on the various road
pavement types dominant on the network. Due to the nature of data available cross-sectional
method was used for the calibration of the HDM-4 model to simulate the local condition of
Nigeria. The default values have all been updated to be consistent with. The relevant
pavement deterioration factors have all been updated based what pertains in Nigeria. The
information from the road agencies on construction practices and local specification used in
the selection of the road pavement layer materials for bituminous (surface dressed and
asphaltic concrete) and unsealed roads in order to reflect local quality control regime with
respect to completed road works.
The road user effect with respect to speed flows at various periods of the day has been
established. The fuel consumption patterns of the representative vehicles a fleet under various
road conditions on road types in Nigeria were ascertained. The rate of tyre wear, fuel
consumption and vehicle maintenance with respect to spare parts usage under the respective
road condition were confirmed through field survey carried by interviewing drivers in Nigeria.
This Draft Final Report is the third project report of the series of deliverables and it covers the
period from the project start date of 15 November 2012. The project activity schedule was
revised to meet the agreed time scales of the Project. The Consultant worked closely with and
was guided by our direct client RSDT and the designated officials of the FMW and the FERMA.
This ensured that the opinions and views of all those involved in the road transport sector were
incorporated or considered in the adaptation and calibration of HDM-4 to conditions in Nigeria.
The study team applied modern experience and techniques in transport investment
appraisal/evaluation, and that encapsulated in road asset development and management
technology, and have provided a system whose results will be internationally acceptable.
The calibrated HDM-4 model can now be used to carry out specific project, programming and
strategy analysis under the operating environment and climatic condition of Nigeria.
Programming of works to be executed over a given period of time say 5 to 10 year horizon
based on current road condition for the various classes of road in under the jurisdiction of the
respective Road Agencies in Nigeria can now objectively be assessed. Strategy Analysis can
now be carried for the entire road network and use as the basis to focus budget in a
constrained budget scenario. The total budget required to fix the perennial maintenance
backlog can now be addressed and used as a basis to engage the development partners in
soliciting of loans and grants. The government outfit with ministerial oversight on the road
agencies can now use the HDM-4 analysis to direct attention in a given area of the road
network through policy.
vii
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
In order to effectively use the calibrated HDM-4 model, base data must be updated and
sustained and a system put in place to enable annual data collection thereafter. There is the
need for staff training of the road agencies staff in the proper use of the HDM-4 model to
enable its use for feasibility studies, programming of works and strategic planning of the road
network. The workspace has also been customised in accordance with Nigerian local condition
and the relevant Look-up tables all reviewed.
viii
INTRODUCTION
1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background
Following the implementation of several projects aimed at improving decision-making on
expenditures in the road sector, there is currently a widespread recognition in Nigeria of the
importance of road development and maintenance and the value placed on the issue both by
users and the wider community. There is also an increasing understanding of the serious
consequences of failure to invest adequately and effectively in maintaining the national road
network. The Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN), through the Federal Ministry of Works
(FMW) with financial assistance from the World Bank, procured the services of Infrastructure
Management and Engineering Services Limited (IMES) to carry out Configuration and
Calibration of the Highway Development and Management Model (HDM-4) to conditions in
Nigeria.
Since the HDM-4 model simulates future changes to the road system from current conditions,
the reliability of the results is dependent upon two primary considerations:
1. How well the data provided to the model represent the reality of current conditions and
influencing factors, in the terms understood by the model; and,
2. How well the predictions of the model fit the real behaviour and the interactions between
various factors for the variety of conditions to which it is applied
Application of the model thus involves two important steps:
(i) Data input: a correct interpretation of the data input requirements, and achieving a
quality of input data that is appropriate to the desired reliability of the results. This
includes configuration of HDM-4 and this will focus on default inputs such as vehicle
fleet, speed-flow types, traffic flow pattern, climate zones, accident rates, and the
relationships between detailed and aggregate data.
(ii) Calibration of outputs: adjusting the model parameters to enhance how well the forecast
and outputs represent the changes and influences over time and under various
interventions. Calibration of the HDM-4 model focuses on the components that
determine the physical quantities, costs and benefits predicted for the road deterioration
(RD), works effects (WE), road user effects (RUE) and Socio-Economic Effects (SEE)
analysis
The configuration and calibration has been done for the latest version of HDM-4 (Version 2.08)
to suit observations, norms and practices in Nigeria.
1.2 Project Aim and Objectives

The study is aimed at improving decision-making on expenditures in the road sector by
enabling effective and sustainable utilisation of the latest highway development and
management knowledge. The study has developed the basis for an effective implementation
of decision-support methods and computerised tools for use by the FMW, Road Sector
Development Team (RSDT) and other related agencies with the aim of achieving sustainable
operation.
1
INTRODUCTION
There are three levels of calibration for the HDM-4, which involves low, moderate and major
levels of effort and resources, see Section 2. For this project, the target level of the
configuration and calibration is Level 2 Calibration, and the calibration carried out
concentrated on the most sensitive parameters embedded in the HDM-4 system.
1.3 Project Scope

The project scope is structured under seven phases described in Table 1.1. The progress of
each of the phases is also provided in Table 1.1.
Table 1.1: Project Scope

Phase Description Status
Inception, reviews and consultations including: review of

1 existing information and stakeholder engagement, and Completed
formulation of homogeneous groups of road sections;
Field surveys as necessary including: pavement performance

2 Completed
related distresses, and RUE data
HDM-4 configuration including: representative vehicles, climate

3 zones, road network aggregate data, traffic flow patter, speed Completed
flow, and accident rates/classes;
4 HDM-4 road deterioration model calibration Completed
5 HDM-4 works effects model calibration Completed
HDM-4 road user effects calibration including speed prediction

6 model parameters, fuel consumption, spare parts consumption Completed
and tyre wear.
HDM-4 Customisation including: economic parameters, lookup

7 Ongoing
tables and customised HDM-4 workspace.
The project deliverables include an inception report, interim report, draft final report, and final
report and a customised HDM-4 workspace. The reporting schedule for the deliverables
including status is provided in Table 1.2. The final report will be delivered in hard copy and
softcopy on CD.
Table 1.2: New vs Initial Schedule of Deliverables

Initial Timing -
Reports Months from New Proposed Dates Status
Start of Project
Inception Report 1 17th December 2012 Submitted
Interim Report 4 23rd October 2013 Submitted
Draft Final Report 7 17th December 2013 This report
Final Report 9 28th January 2014 Programmed
2
INTRODUCTION
1.4 The Study Team
1.4.1 Consultants Team
The consultants team and the key roles of each member are presented in Table 1.3.
Table 1.3: Consultants Team

Name Role Main Tasks
Study approach and methodology,

Team Leader / Highway support on road deterioration, works
Jennaro B. Odoki
Engineer effects and road user effects model
calibration
Road user effects models and

economic analysis, and provide
Akli Ourad Transport Economist
support on road deterioration model
calibration and HDM-4 configuration
Road deterioration and works effects

Road Maintenance models, data collection and support on
Michael Anyala
Management Specialist road user effects model calibration,
and HDM-4 configuration
Environmental Vehicle data and exhaust emissions

Isa Yunusa Chedi
Management Specialist models
Traffic / Road Safety

Stephen Kinyera Otto Road safety and traffic flow
Expert
Data collection, traffic and economic

Nobert Omony Support Economist
analysis parameters
General clerical duties, documentation,
Aliyu Amiru Ubaidullah Office Administrator
etc.
1.4.2 Counterpart Staff
The counterpart staff assigned to this project is listed in Table 1.4.

Table 1.4: Counterpart Staff
Staff Designation
1. Chike Ngwuocha Project Manager, Road Sector Development Team

2. Victor I. Ajah Federal Roads Maintenance Agency
3. David Yiltong Federal Ministry of Works
4. Ebere Izunobi Federal Ministry of Works
1.5 Purpose and Structure of the Report

The purpose of the Draft Final Report presents the results obtained by the Study Team. After
the introductory chapter, the report is structured as follows. The overall approach and the
methodology adopted for this study is presented in Chapter 2. This covers the full spectrum
3
INTRODUCTION
of the work and identifies the specific methods used for each component and phase of the
study.
Chapter 3 describes the activities carried out for field surveys and data collection on vehicle
fleet characteristics and unit costs, road network and functional classes, pavements and traffic
characteristics. Chapter 4 discusses road deterioration model calibration. Chapter 5 describes
the road works effects model calibration. Chapter 6 describes the road user effects model
calibration. Phase 3 of the study. Chapter 7 presents the configuration of HDM-4 to the norms,
practices and conditions e Nigeria. Chapter 8 concludes the report.
4
OVERALL STUDY METHODOLOGY
2 OVERALL STUDY METHODOLOGY
2.1 Introduction
This chapter describes the technical approach and methodology used for this assignment. It
shows not only our appreciation of the conditions and requirements of the commission but how
the study team delivered the outputs stipulated in the Terms of Reference, given in Appendix
A.
The study team applied modern experience and techniques in road management system
development, and that encapsulated in road asset development and management technology,
in order to provide a product that meets the aim and objectives of the study.
In order to appreciate the scope of work and the objectives of the study, a summary of the
HDM-4 analytical framework is provided in Appendix B.
2.2 Configuration
The primary objective of configuration is to make the analysis from the model relevant and
compatible to the environment in Nigeria by restructuring default configuration data in line with
local conditions, standards and practices.
HDM-4 configuration involved a number of activities that included the following:
Provision of information on the climatic conditions prevailing in Nigeria, different road

types and functional classes, and the pavement types that constitute the road network.
Definition of the general characteristics of traffic flow on the different road types in the
network; the traffic bands, traffic composition by representative vehicle types and traffic
growth rates pertaining to each road type/class. Types of accidents predominant on
each road type and accident rates have to be determined.
Definition of road surface condition in aggregate form (e.g. good, fair, poor) based on
measures of surface distresses (e.g. cracking, ravelling, rutting, potholes, edge break,
roughness, thickness of gravel) to conform to local standards and practices.
General assessment of quality of road construction in Nigeria using strict adherence to
technical specifications and design standards as a measure of full compliance in order
to reflect local quality control regime.
Estimation of pavements strength of the various road types and classes expressed in
terms of structural number and deflection.
2.3 Calibration
Calibration of HDM-4 is intended to improve the accuracy of predicted pavement performance
and vehicle resource consumption. The pavement deterioration models incorporated in HDM-
4 were developed from results of large field experiments conducted in several countries.
Consequently, the default equations in HDM-4 if used without calibration, would predict
pavement performance that may not accurately match that observed on specific road sections.
A fundamental assumption made prior to using HDM-4 is that the pavement performance
models will be calibrated to reflect the observed rates of pavement deterioration on the roads
where the models are applied. The extent of HDM-4 calibration may be defined as follows:
1. Level 1:
Application: Determines the values of required input parameters based on a desk study
of available data and engineering experience of pavement performance, adopts many
default values and calibrates the most sensitive parameters with best estimates
2. Level 2:
Verification: Requires measurement of additional inputs and moderate field surveys to

calibrate key predictive relationships to local conditions
3. Level 3:
Adaptation: Experimental data collection required to monitor the long-term performance

of pavements within the study area, which data should be used to enhance the existing
predictive relationship or to develop new and locally specific relationships for substitution
in the source code for the model
The Nigerian road agencies have been maintaining a road database for its road network for
some years and stored in their respective databases. For the purpose of calibration work, the
data has been retrieved from the road database and processed to suitable forms to use as
input in the HDM-4 model.
2.4 Approach and Methodology

At the inception meetings with the clients representative in October and November 2012, we
discussed our methodology, timelines for the project and reporting mechanisms amongst other
issues. The minutes of the meeting are attached in Appendix C.
After examination of the Terms of Reference and HDM-4 analytical framework, desk studies
and inception discussions with the client, the study was divided into seven phases as follows:
Phase 1 Inception, reviews and consultations;

Phase 2 Field surveys;
Phase 3 HDM-4 configuration;
Phase 4 HDM-4 road deterioration model calibration;
Phase 5 - HDM-4 works effects model calibration;
Phase 6 HDM-4 road user effects calibration and;
Phase 7 HDM-4 customisation.
The study phases, main tasks and outputs are illustrated in Figure 2.1. Note that the activities
in phases 4, 5 and 6 were carried out in parallel. The details of how each of these phases was
completed are given in the subsequent chapters.
6
Figure 2.1: Study Methodology
7
2.5 Stakeholder and Consultations

To the extent that transport infrastructure development has a transformational effect on the
lives of all the people served, every Nigerian is a stakeholder in transport infrastructure, to
differing extents and levels. Stakeholders include both public and private sector actors.
In carrying out this assignment the Study Team consulted extensively with the stakeholders
in order to produce the desired outcome. To date the following organisations have been
consulted:
Road Sector Development Team (RSDT) Traffic data

Federal Ministry of Works (FMW) for road works classification, works effects and unit
costs
Federal Road Maintenance Agency (FERMA) for road network data for road
deterioration modelling and traffic data
Federal Road Safety Corps (FRSC) for accident and speed-flow data
National Infrastructure Agency Facilitation (NIAF) and TRL for road condition surveys
and pavement strength data
Public-Private-Partnership Department of FMW
National Bureau of Statistics for data on economic parameters related to road
transport, exchange rates, import and export
Vehicle Fleet Operators in Abuja for RUC data in Abuja
Vehicle Fleet Operators in Kaduna for RUC data in Kaduna
Vehicle Fleet Operators in Kano for RUC data in Kano
Vehicle Fleet Operators in Lagos for RUC data in Lagos
Vehicle Fleet Operators in Port Harcourt for RUC data in Port Harcourt
The stakeholders and key representatives listed in Table 2.1 have been consulted in the
course of executing the project.
Table 2.1: List of key stakeholder consulted

No. Stakeholder Consulted Designation
1. Ishaq Mohammed Unit Manager, Road Sector Development Team
2. Chike Ngwuocha Project Manager, Road Sector Development Team
3. Dr Ibitoye Road Sector Development Team
4. Dr Emeka Federal Roads Maintenance Agency
5. Victor I. Ajah Federal Roads Maintenance Agency
6. David Yiltong Federal Ministry of Works
7. Ebere Izunobi Federal Ministry of Works
8. Ikene Deputy Director of Planning, Federal Ministry of Works
9. George Federal Ministry of Works
10. Dr Greg Morosiuk National Infrastructure Agency Facilitation, TRL
11. Tunde Ekunsumi Public-Private-Partnership Department
Project Manager and Advisor (Safe road corridors), Federal
12. Dr Terry Mene
Road Safety Corps
13. National Bureau of Statistics
8
2.6 Main Assumptions

The main assumptions made in this study include the following:
Background information on available data and reports of relevant studies that have
been completed could be used for configuration and calibration of HDM-4; Samples of
additional data were collected to fill in the gaps identified in existing data.
Homogeneous groupings of road sections were used to select representative
calibration road sections based on key parameters that are likely to have significant
impacts on the deterioration of the Nigerian road network. The key parameters drawn
from our experience in undertaking similar tasks typically included climate zones,
pavement types, pavement ages and traffic levels.
The data accuracy required for HDM-4 model calibration is dictated by the level of
sensitivity of the model to each parameter. For a less sensitive model there is no need
to quantify the input data to a very high degree of accuracy. Conversely, for a very
sensitive model it is important to quantify the data as accurately as is practical given
the available resources.
Figure 2.2 illustrates the impact of the accuracy of input data on road deterioration predictions
and the timing of future maintenance interventions (Bennett and Paterson, 2000). HDM-4 uses
incremental-recursive models and the existing condition (denoted by point C1 or C2) is the
start point for the modelling. The pavement will deteriorate and reach that condition, defined
by a given set of criteria for maintenance intervention, in a certain period of time depending
on the existing condition. The difference in the start point will have as great, if not greater
impact, on when the treatments are triggered as will the calibrated deterioration factor.
Figure 2.2 also illustrates a second point: That HDM-4 model predictions are based on the
mean deterioration rate and therefore will have a certain time interval within which a particular
treatment will be triggered by a given set of intervention criteria. Typical values that define the
slower and faster rates of deterioration into a band vary across the different distresses
modelled. The further into the future one predicts the deterioration, the greater the spread in
the trigger interval. Consequently, this will impact on the analysis results as costs incurred in
the future are discounted to the base year value.
Poor
Confidence Interval
Intervention Threshold
Observed Condition
C1
C2
Condition 2
Condition 1 Trigger Trigger
Interval Interval
Good
Time
Source: Bennett and Paterson (2000)

Figure 2.2: The impact of the accuracy of data on road deterioration predictions
9
In the situations of lack or missing data, the concept of Information Quality Level (IQL) was
used to configure HDM-4 aggregate data for Nigeria. The concept of Information Quality
Levels (IQL) as depicted in Figure 2.3 allows data to be structured in ways that suit the needs
of different levels of decision making and the variety of effort and sophistication of methods
for collecting and processing data. In the IQL concept, very detailed information at a low level
(low-level data) can be condensed or aggregated into progressively fewer items at
successively higher levels of IQL (high-level data) as shown in Figure 2.3.
HIGH LEVEL DATA
System Performance
IQL-5 Performance
Monitoring
Planning and
IQL-4 Structure Condition
Performance Evaluation
Programme Analysis or
IQL-3 Ride Distress Friction
Detailed Planning
Project Level or
IQL-2 Detailed Programme
Project Detail or
IQL-1
Research
LOW LEVEL DATA
Figure 2.3: Concept of Information Quality Level
10
FIELD SURVEYS, DATA COLLECTION AND PROCESSING
3 FIELD SURVEYS, DATA COLLECTION AND PROCESSING
3.1 Vehicle Fleet Characteristics and Unit Costs

Following the desk studies and reviews carried out in Phase 1, the consultant determined the
availability of suitable data for calibration of RUE models. The following samples of additional
data were collected to fill in the gaps identified in existing data:
Vehicle fleet resources including fuel consumption, spare parts consumption and tyre
wear collected through questionnaires and structured interviews with vehicle fleet
owners;
Vehicle fleet economic and financial costs were also be collected during the field
surveys;
Accident data on different road types and travel time values from available sources.
The data collected are held in an EXCEL database and were analysed to determine
calibration factors for the different HDM-4 RUE models.
3.1.1 Representative Vehicles
As it is not possible to model the operating costs of each individual vehicle in the fleet,
representative vehicles of the national fleet are used instead. These are vehicles whose
characteristics can be considered to be representative of all vehicles within a certain class.
The number of representative vehicles is usually influenced by factors such as the
composition of traffic, functional differences between different types of vehicles, the
objectives of the study, and the availability and quality of data.
There are 14 vehicle categories adopted to represent the Nigeria Fleet. These have been
taken from the FHWA classification currently used by the FMW.
Class Vehicle Category

01 Motorcycles
02 Small Car
03 Medium Car
04 Large Car
05 Four Wheel Drive
06 Small Bus
07 Medium Bus
08 Big Bus
09 Light Delivery
10 Medium Delivery
11 Truck Rigid 2 Axles
12 Truck Rigid 3 or 4 Axles
13 Truck Rigid more than 4 Axles (with trailer)
14 Articulated Truck (divided into 4 sub-categories)
These representative vehicles are elaborated in Table 3.1.
Table 3.1: Vehicle Categories

Vehicle Typical Engine
No. Typical Illustration
Category Capacity (cc)
1 Motorcycle 125
2 Small Car 998
3 Medium Car 1400
4 Large Car 1998
Four Wheel
5 4200
Drive
6 Bus (Small) 2500
7 Bus (Medium) 4200
Bus(Big /
8 8867
Coach)
Light Delivery
Vehicle
9 2500
(Utilities &
Pickups)
Medium
10 Delivery 2982
Vehicles
12
Vehicle Typical Engine

No. Typical Illustration
Category Capacity (cc)
Trucks (Rigid 2
11 7545
- axle)
Trucks (Rigid
12 8867
3/4 - axle)
Trucks (Rigid
13 8867
& Trailer)
Trucks (Horse
14
& S-Trailer, 11750
(i)
3&4 axles)
Trucks (Horse
14
& S-Trailer, 11750
(ii)
5&6 axles)
14 Trucks (Horse
& S- 11750
(iii) Trailer,7axles)
14 Trucks (Horse
11750
(iv) & 2 Trailers)
Sufficient data was collected for the customization of vehicle fleet and calibration of RUE
models. Vehicle fleet characteristics and data on unit costs of vehicle resource consumption
13
were collected through specific surveys in Abuja, Kaduna, Kano, Lagos and Port Harcourt
areas in February and March 2013. The data was collected through interviews with:
Haulage companies
Transport operators
Taxi companies
Car hire companies
Private vehicles
Other companies with important fleets (e.g. NGOs)
A full VOC survey was conducted in Abuja, Kaduna, Kano, Lagos and Port Harcourt areas.
A minimum of 50 surveys were performed for each vehicle category defined in Table 3.1. The
surveys were evenly spread around the five cities mentioned above. The team has processed
and analysed the data. The summarised VOC data determined as a result of the survey are
provided in Tables 3.2 and 3.3.
14
Table 3.2: Basic Vehicle Fleet Characteristics
Kilometres Driven per
Percentage of Vehicle
Number of Equivalent
Passenger Car Space
Standard Axle Loads

Passenger Trips that
Average Service Life
Use on Private Trips

Re-tread Costs as a
Average Number of
Average Number of
Working Hours per
Percentage of New
Average Operating
Number of Wheels
are Work Related

Number of Axles
Weight (Tonnes)
Base Number of
Percentage of
Vehicle Name
Equivalence
Passengers
Tyre Costs
Tyre Type
Recaps
(Years)
Year
Year
(a) Motorcycle 0.5 2 2 Bias-ply 1.3 15 10,875 1,691 10 75 1 25 0.2 0
(b) Car Small 1.0 4 2 Radial-ply 1.3 15 32,155 1,666 12 75 1.5 25 1.0 0
(c) Car Medium 1.0 4 2 Radial-ply 1.3 15 29,703 1,467 13 75 1.5 25 1.5 0
(d) Car Large 1.0 4 2 Radial-ply 1.3 15 41,459 1,479 11 75 2 25 1.8 0
(e) Four Wheel Drive 1.0 4 2 Bias-ply 1.3 15 43,298 1,076 12 0 1 0 2.0 0.02
(f) Bus Small 1.2 4 2 Radial-ply 1.3 15 120,188 2,329 11 0 10 75 2.7 0.01
(g) Bus Medium 1.5 6 2 Bias-ply 1.3 15 58,465 1,524 13 0 27 75 5.7 0.70
(h) Bus Large/Coach 1.6 10 3 Bias-ply 1.3 15 132,734 2,858 11 0 60 75 18 2.00
(i) Light Delivery Vehicle 1.0 4 2 Radial-ply 1.3 15 37,591 1,368 13 0 0 0 2.6 0.01
(j) Medium Delivery Vehicle 1.0 4 2 Bias-ply 1.3 15 42,510 1,662 9 0 0 0 4.0 0.01
(k) Truck Rigid 2-axle 1.3 4 2 Bias-ply 1.3 15 105,511 1,966 13 0 0 0 11.6 7.00
(l) Truck Rigid 3/4 Axle 1.6 10 3 Bias-ply 1.3 15 106,433 2,453 16 0 0 0 22.6 12.00
(m) Truck Multi-axle Truck & Trailer 1.8 18 5 Bias-ply 1.3 15 111,492 2,244 16 0 0 0 55.2 14.00
(n) Truck Horse & S-Trailer 3/4 Axles 1.6 10 3 Bias-ply 1.3 15 111,492 2,244 16 0 0 0 34.8 14.00
(o) Truck Horse & Semi-Trailer 5/6 Axles 1.8 18 5 Bias-ply 1.3 15 116,552 2,035 16 0 0 0 34.8 14.00
(p) Truck Horse and semi-Trailer 7 Axles 1.8 18 7 Bias-ply 1.3 15 111,492 2,244 16 0 0 0 34.8 14.00
(q) Truck Horse & 2 Trailers 1.8 18 7 Bias-ply 1.3 15 111,492 2,244 16 0 0 0 67.4 14.00
15
Table 3.3: Economic Costs of Vehicle Characteristics (in US Dollars)
Average Costs of Single
Average Costs of Cargo

Total Crew Wages (per
Average Costs of Fuel
Costs of New Vehicle
Lubricants (per Litre)
Maintenance Labour
Passenger Working
Working Time (per

Average Economic
Average Costs of
Average Costs of
Average Costs of
Average Costs of
Overheads Costs
Delay (per Hour)

Time (per Hour)
Average Annual
Passenger Non-
Annual Interest
Vehicle Name
(per Hour)
(per litre)
Hour)
Hour)
Tyre
(a) Motorcycle 1342 24 0.77 1.95 1.0 0 220 11 0.91 0.18 0.00
(b) Car Small 15880 56 0.77 1.95 1.5 0 1300 11 1.10 0.22 0.00
(c) Car Medium 22998 73 0.77 1.95 1.5 0 1300 11 2.11 0.42 0.00
(d) Car Large 29295 119 0.77 1.95 1.5 0 1300 11 2.58 0.52 0.00
(e) Four Wheel Drive 33950 139 0.88 1.95 2.29 0 2400 11 2.26 0.45 0.00
(f) Bus Small 33128 139 0.88 1.95 2.29 1.69 2760 11 2.90 0.58 0.00
(g) Bus Medium 50651 134 0.88 1.95 3.87 3.23 4040 11 0.65 0.13 0.00
(h) Bus Large/Coach 175794 123 0.88 1.95 4.27 4.39 5740 11 2.86 0.57 0.00
(i) Light Delivery Vehicle 20534 141 0.88 1.95 2.58 1.39 1920 11 0.00 0.00 0.90
(j) Medium Delivery Vehicle 31759 453 0.88 1.95 2.9 2.26 2400 11 0.00 0.00 1.47
(k) Truck Rigid 2-axle 41068 324 0.88 1.95 3.55 2.74 2400 11 0.00 0.00 1.78
(l) Truck Rigid 3/4 Axle 89994 626 0.88 1.95 3.89 3.67 2660 11 0.00 0.00 2.39
(m) Truck Multi-axle Truck & Trailer 110983 503 0.88 1.95 4.75 4.54 4600 11 0.00 0.00 2.95
(n) Truck Horse & S-Trailer 3/4 Axles 132538 707 0.88 1.95 4.75 4.54 4600 11 0.00 0.00 2.95
(o) Truck Horse & Semi-Trailer 5/6 Axles 129262 522 0.88 1.95 5.23 4.9 6100 11 0.00 0.00 3.19
(p) Truck Horse and semi-Trailer 7 Axles 127624 637 0.88 1.95 5.23 4.9 6100 11 0.00 0.00 3.19
(q) Truck Horse & 2 Trailers 149022 561 0.88 1.95 5.23 4.9 6100 11 0.00 0.00 3.19
16
3.1.2 Vehicle Utilisation and Service Life
There are three vehicle utilisation parameters that have been calibrated for the Nigeria vehicle
fleet.
a) Annual Utilization - Number of Kilometres Driven

b) Annual Hourly Utilization - the Number Hours per Year
c) Percentage Private Use
Vehicle annual utilization is expressed both in kilometre coverage and in hours driven per
year. The kilometre coverage depends on the mobility of vehicles while the total hours include
both driving time and non-driving activities: loading and unloading, refuelling, layovers, etc.
3.1.2.1 Annual Utilization - Number of Kilometres Driven
Annual kilometreage is the number of kilometres driven per year. This parameter is used in
calculating the parts consumption and the interest costs. The annual kilometreage is obtained
from information detailing the ages of vehicles (vehicle age spectrum) and the distances that
they have travelled. The utilization of a vehicle generally varies with age. In several studies
older vehicles have been found to have lower utilization than newer ones. It was therefore
important that any data collected not be biased in favour of vehicles of a given age.
The consultant conducted a VOC survey in February/March 2013 and the information on
annual utilization was collected directly from drivers and transport operators the information
was processed and analysed to determine the average annual utilization for each vehicle
category defined in Sub-section 3.1.1.
The average annual Utilization - Number of Kilometres Driven per vehicle type is provided in
Table 3.2.
3.1.2.2 Annual Hourly Utilization - the Number Hours per Year
There are three definitions for the hourly utilization:
HAV - the number of hours the vehicle is available per year

This is the number of hours per year (8760), less the time allowed for crew rest, time
lost loading, unloading, refuelling, finding cargo, repairs, etc.
HRD - the numbers of hours driven

This is the hours that the vehicle is operated. It can be calculated from the annual
number of kilometres driven divided by the average annual speed.
HWK - the number of hours worked

This is similar to the hours driven (HRD), except it includes the time spent loading,
unloading and refuelling.
The utilization model in HDM-4 is based on the number of hours-worked approach. Using a
standard working week, a vehicle is typically available for approximately 1800 hours per year.
However, since there are substantial periods of time when the vehicle is not in use, for example
due to loading/unloading, the driving time would often be less than 50 per cent of this value.
Trucks and buses usually have the highest utilizations; utilities the lowest.
17
The hours driven were calculated based on data collected through the February/March 2013
VOC survey. From this, the annual average number of hours worked for each vehicle was
derived. The average utilization per vehicle type is provided in Table 3.2. It was important to
ensure that the value adopted for hours driven be consistent with the annual utilization in
kilometres driven and the average speed. If not, the predicted costs could be distorted.
3.1.2.3 Percentage Private Use
The percentage private use was established through the VOC survey data of users. The
resulting values were ultimately used in HDM-4 to calculate travel time cost. The average
utilization per vehicle type is provided in Table 3.2 for vehicle in Nigeria.
3.1.2.4 Vehicle Service Life
A vehicle, or any physical property, has three measures of its life, namely the:
1. Service life defined as the period over which the vehicle is operated
2. Physical life defined as the period which the vehicle exists (even if it is not being used)
3. Economic life defined as the period which the vehicle is economically profitable to
operate
The service life is used in HDM-4 to calculate the depreciation costs of vehicles that can have
a significant impact on the RUC. In HDM-4 the user needs to define the expected service life
in years for a vehicle operating on a smooth pavement. This value is then used to determine
the effect of roughness on service life when using the Optimal Life technique. This expected
service life is the distance at which it becomes appropriate to scrap the vehicle.
There are a number of different techniques available for calculating the service life. For Level
2 calibration the ages were obtained from the VOC survey conducted as part of this study.
The life of vehicle depends on road characteristics depreciate faster with less service on bad
roads. Data in respect of vehicle life was collected from operators based in Abuja, Kaduna,
Kano, Lagos and Port Harcourt. The data was analysed to determine the average service life
of each representative vehicle type defined in Table 3.1. The average service life per vehicle
type is provided in Table 3.2.
3.1.3 Parts Consumption and Maintenance Labour
Vehicle maintenance and repair costs are usually the largest single component of VOC. In
HDM-4, this cost component is modelled as a function of vehicle age (expressed in terms of
cumulative number of kilometres), riding quality (i.e., road roughness) and speed change
cycles.
Maintenance labour costs relate to the labour component of fitting spare parts and repairing
vehicles. Maintenance labour cost is affected by the road conditions since vehicles require
more spare parts and frequent repairs on poor roads resulting in higher labour costs. If the
road is improved to a better condition, the corresponding labour cost will be reduced.
Maintenance labour costs differ for different vehicles. The type and composition of mechanics
involved on the maintenance of bigger vehicles is different from smaller vehicles and
accordingly, payments for mechanics differ based on their skills, extent of experiences and
training.
Data on spare parts requirements and maintenance labour costs were collected from different
transport operators in Abuja, Kaduna, Kano, Lagos and Port Harcourt. Calibration of parts
18
consumption model is presented in Chapter 5. The parts consumption and maintenance labour
costs per vehicle type are provided in Table 3.2.
3.1.4 Vehicle Prices
Vehicle price is an important component of the Vehicle Operating Costs (VOC) as the parts
consumption is expressed as a percentage of the vehicle price. The VOC survey carried out
in February/March 2013 provides data to determine the current average price per vehicle
category.
The financial prices of different kinds of vehicles were collected from dealers in Abuja, Kaduna,
Kano, Lagos and Port Harcourt. Financial prices are the actual prices that transport operators
pay for the acquisition of the vehicles. The financial prices normally include taxes and duties.
However, financial prices do not reflect the real costs to the national economy where resources
are actually used in providing transport services. Items such as taxes and duties are transfer
payments from the private sector to the public sector and thus, they do not represent the actual
consumption of resources.
Essentially for economic appraisal purposes, the costs and benefits that are associated with
the proposed improvement works are expressed in resource or economic terms rather than in
market prices. This normally is done to avoid distortion that results from market imperfections.
In view of the above, taxes and duties are subtracted from financial prices in order to arrive at
economic prices. Data on taxes and duties will be collected from the National Bureau of
Statistics (NBOS) and other sources. New and Replacement financial prices are provided in
Table 3.4 and economic prices are provided in Table 3.3.
Table 3.4: New and Replacement Vehicle Financial Prices

Vehicle Category Average Price (in Naira)
01 Motorcycles 173,093
02 Small Car 690.651
03 Medium Car 946,373
04 Large Car 1,950,717
05 Four Wheel Drive 3.941,860
06 Small Bus 2,846,379
07 Medium Bus 3,503,404
08 Big Bus 41,510,305
09 Light Delivery 533,544
10 Medium Delivery 1,437,181
11 Truck Rigid 2 Axles 1,476,744
12 Truck Rigid 3 Axles 9,953,771
13 Truck Rigid + 4 Axles 14,887,500
14 Multi-axle Truck 18,000,000
19
3.1.5 Standard Conversion Factor
To convert financial costs into economic costs a standard conversion factor (SCF) was derived
from the following expression:
SCF = [border price value of all imports plus border price value of all exports] divided by
[(value of all imports plus all taxes on imports) plus (value of all exports minus all taxes on
exports)]
An average SCF value of 0.85 was estimated using data on Nigeria exports and imports from
2003 to 2010 obtained from National Bureau of Statistics (NBOS). The annual SCF values
ranged from 0.82 to 0.89.
3.1.6 Interest Costs
The interest cost is the annual charge on the capital required to purchase the vehicle. The
annual cost of capital is derived from the interest charges made by suppliers of vehicles or
financiers. When dealing with financial analysis, the nominal interest rate prevailing in the
market is considered, while for economic analysis interest is defined as the opportunity cost
of using the money needed for purchasing vehicles in other alternative sector of the economy.
The money needed for purchasing vehicles could have been used elsewhere in the economy
of the country. The opportunity costs of potential usage of this money in other sectors of the
economy should be calculated in economic terms. The average lending rate at the Central
Bank of Nigeria has been determined from the merchant banks and provided in Table 3.3.
3.1.7 Crew Costs
Crew costs relate to payments made to crew members who travel with a vehicle to carry out
different duties. The size of the crew members depends on the vehicle type and the use of the
vehicle. Larger public transport vehicles usually have more crew members in addition to the
drivers in order to work as conductors and assistants to the drivers.
Crew time costs are costs per crew-hour of vehicle operation. They are applicable for
commercial vehicles only i.e. vans, minibuses, large buses and trucks. Pertinent data were
collected in major commercial cities in Nigeria mainly in Abuja, Kaduna, Kano, Lagos and Port
Harcourt. Accordingly, both financial and economic costs have been estimated from the data
collected. The average crew costs are provided in Table 3.3.
3.1.8 Overhead Costs
Overhead costs include such items as garaging and insurance costs with the latter functioning
as a surrogate for accident costs. For commercial operators they may also include costs of
administration and support staff and office premises. Overhead costs also include the annual
license fees of drivers.
Information on overhead costs was obtained from different transports operators in Nigeria
based in Abuja, Kaduna, Kano, Lagos and Port Harcourt. Exact data of overhead costs is
difficult to obtain in Nigeria as is common in most developing countries. The average overhead
costs are provided in Table 3.3.
20
3.1.9 Fuel and Lubricants Prices
This is an important component of vehicle operating costs. Fuel consumption is affected by

vehicle speed, which in turn is affected by the characteristics of road surfaces. Rise and fall
as well as degrees of curvature of roads and also gross vehicle weight are among the
contributing variables for fuel consumption. The two major types of fuel consumed on Nigeria
roads are petrol and diesel. Data on current pump prices of petrol and diesel per litre have
been collected from a number of Filling Stations and these are the financial costs.
Lubricants are consumed during the operation of vehicles. Lubricant consumption is the
amount of lubricants used by a vehicle. This includes engine oil and grease measured in litres;
the most important of them all is engine oil. Financial costs of lubricants were collected from
fuel stations in Abuja, Kaduna, Kano, Lagos and Port Harcourt.
The fuel and lubricants prices determined by the survey are provided in Table 3.3.
3.1.10 Tyre Prices
Tyre consumption refers to the volume of tyre used per unit of distance travelled and thus,
tyres are consumed continuously as vehicles travel. As the vehicles travel, materials are
removed from the tyres and eventually the tyres wear out because of abrasive wear. Road
characteristics and vehicle weight are the two major variables that affect the consumption of
tyres. Road roughness directly affects tyre consumption because of the abrasion on the tyre
surfaces by the road. Thus, the improvement in road surfaces will reduce tyre consumption;
but on the other hand, the sidewalls of tyres will be damaged as a consequence of vehicle
overloading.
Financial prices of tyres were collected from major commercial centres in Abuja, Kaduna,
Kano, Lagos and Port Harcourt. Economic costs of tyres were derived from those of financial
costs by removing taxes, duties or subsidies (if any). The tyre prices per vehicle are provided
in Table 3.3.
3.1.11 Accident Costs
The HDM-4 system allows users to define a series of look-up tables for accident rates. These
are basically broad, macro descriptions of the expected accident rates defined according to a
particular set of road and traffic attributes. For each road type users are required to specify
the accident rate for each severity (that is, fatal, injury or damage only), in terms of the
numbers of accidents per 100 million vehicle-kilometres. When a road is improved a new set
of accident rates can be specified based on data observed for roads with similar traffic flow
and geometric characteristics. Thus, it is possible to analyse the change in total numbers of
accidents and the costs resulting from the improvement.
The study team investigated accident rates on different types of road sections in Nigeria using
data provided by Federal Road Safety Corps (FRSC). In particular, the team investigated how
accident rates for each severity vary with parameters like road type, traffic level and flow-
pattern, the presence of non-motorized transport, road geometry, and road surface
characteristics. Detailed analysis of the data received from FRSC revealed that the data was
not exploitable as the road accident locations were not related to road sections
Although it is not easy to attribute monetary values to the losses arising from accidents,
estimates of accident costs are an essential aid to decision-making in the road safety aspects
and investment choices. Costs of road accidents arise from the following areas, TRRL (1988),
Overseas Road Note 5:
21
Damage to vehicles and other property

Costs of hospital treatment, police work, administration, etc.
Loss of life and injury
The first two areas of losses involve material resources and are normally readily defined, even
though their values may be uncertain. They can be translated into economic terms without
great difficulty. Costs relating to the loss of life and injury are subjective, involving the need to
value human life and pain, grief and suffering. The valuing of human life is a difficult and often
contentious process. Several methods/approaches of valuing human life exist including the
gross output, net output, life insurance, court award, value of risk-charge, and implicit public
sector valuation.
The study team investigated different accident cost methodologies and selected those that
are relevant to the objectives being pursued by the country taking into consideration data
availability and quality in Nigeria.
It is recommended that average accident costs should be as follows:
Damage only US$ 1,000

Serious Injury US$ 37,320
Fatal - US$ - 186,600
In 2012, GDP per capita (average income) was estimated to be US$ 1,555. Then using the
120 multiplier from Miller (2000) this equals US$ 186,600 for 2012. Allowing for a real increase
of 2% in per-capita income over the previous year, economic value of preventing one road
death (VSL) equals $59,600 for 2012.
The valuation of prevention of serious injury - involving police costs, hospital costs, and loss
of earnings, across a wide spectrum of people, both adults and children - is of necessity
simplified, and is based on a research report for TANROADS (SweRoad, 2004). Serious injury
cost is estimated as 20% of the VSL, or US$ 37,320 in 2012. Note that these values should
be adjusted to account for real increases in personal incomes in future years.
3.1.12 Travel Time
3.1.12.1 Passenger Travel Time
Savings in time when journeys are related to work clearly have a value; if less time is spent
travelling more time in the working day can be used for economically productive purposes.
Another way of looking at this is the employer pays the employee an hours wages for no
return. The employer would be willing to pay equal to an hours wages to reduce travel time
by one hour. It can be argued that due to overheads and social charges the employer would
be prepared to pay even more, but the common practice in developing countries is to equate
the value of work time to the earnings rate of the traveller. In developed countries, where there
are often large social costs, this gross wage is increased by the employers on-costs.
The use of wage rates is complicated by the fact that official statistics on wages probably
underestimate the earnings of travellers. Wage statistics do not usually cover the earnings of
the highest paid workers, and the wages of those travelling during working time may be higher
than the average. Often, there are also regional variations in wages that make it impractical to
adopt a national average.
22
Those in the informal sector or travelling in leisure time are not considered to be productive in
the same way as those travelling in work time. Ultimately, the value of non-working time should
reflect Government policy. If the policy is to maximize GDP, ignoring leisure time preferences
and increasing the welfare of passengers, then a zero value should be placed on non-work
time. It must be recognized that assigning a zero value to the time for those in the informal
sector will serve to bias the results in favour of those who contribute to the cash economy.
There is evidence that the leisure time savings are valued, particularly since these travellers
still prefer their trips to be faster than slower and are often willing to pay more for this to
happen. How much a person is prepared to pay for a quicker trip is based upon their income
and wealth. It is therefore common practice to assume a value of personal time related to the
individuals income. Various percentages have been assumed in different studies, usually in
the range 20-50 per cent, but 20-25 per cent seems to be the most common.
Many who travel in personal time do not earn any income and so using this approach would
have no value for their time. In affluent societies this would not be true, but it is argued by
some that in some countries a zero value of time is appropriate.
In these instances the mean income is used to calculate the value of time. The alternative
approach is to calculate the value of time based only on those working and then to apply the
value to all travellers. This will yield a higher value of time than using the mean income of
travellers.
To summarize, there are three sets of passenger time values to be considered:
Employed, travelling in work time,
Employed, not travelling in work time; and,
Unemployed or in non-paid activities.
There is evidence that travel time values are higher for traffic travelling under congested as
opposed to free-flow conditions. When establishing the value of time, particularly for truck and
bus operators, it is important to include extra income that may be obtained above the base
salary, for example:
Daily allowances - to cover food and rest,
Carrying passengers (trucks) or extra, non-reported passengers (buses); and,
Backhaul of goods by trucks - where the operator instead of the owner keeps the
income.
It is also common to differentiate between modes of travel. This, for example, sees different
passenger time costs for passengers in private transport and those in buses or other public
transport.
Table 3.3 gives the method that was used to calculate passenger time and crew costs, using
basic data from the VOC survey along with some assumed additional values. The notes at the
bottom of the table detail how the individual values will be calculated.
It is widely accepted that non-working travel time cost represent around 20% of the passenger
working travel time cost. This estimate was used in this study and the results obtained are
provided in Table 3.3.
23
3.1.12.2 Cargo Delay Cost
Cargo delay cost is the number of vehicle-hours spent in transit. The delay of vehicles normally
results in late arrival of cargoes at the destinations reducing the expected benefits to the
shippers. Any decrease in duration of trips has effect on saving vehicle time. Road
improvements result in the increased use of a vehicle within the same length of time in terms
of distance travelled. Cargo delay cost mostly applies to trucks since these vehicles strive to
increase their services by completing more trips within a given time period. It should also be
considered that different kinds of cargo have different values and durability before usage. This
reality will affect the delay cost that should be assigned to the vehicles ferrying the goods.
During surveys, shippers of freight were asked what their benefits would be, in monetary
terms, if their cargoes arrive on time or even earlier. It was noted that they may not be able to
express in quantitative terms except the subjective assessment of the benefits. It was also
difficult to express in monetary values how much shippers would benefit from marginal early
arrival of their goods at the prevailing slow status of economic activity in the country, except
for perishable commodities.
It is widely accepted that cargo time cost represent around 1.5 2.0 times the passenger
working travel time cost. This estimate has been used in this study and results are provided
in Table 3.3.
3.2 Road Network Characteristics
3.2.1 General
The Nigerian road network from the colonial days to the present day, have been classified into
three namely Trunk A, B and C (Source: State of Infrastructure Report on Nigerian Highways
by MCS Consulting, et al, December 2011):
Trunk A. These roads form the skeleton of the national road grid. They cut across
regional boundaries in the country and even extend to the international borders of
neighbouring West African countries. These categories of roads are under Federal
Governments ownership. They are designed, constructed, maintained and financed by the
Federal government through the Federal Ministry of Works. The Federal Road Maintenance
Agency (FERMA) is in charge of carrying out maintenance of this class of roads.
Trunk B. These roads are local feeder roads constructed and maintained by the Works
Department of Local Government Authorities in Nigeria. This class of roads are primarily not
concrete asphalted and are affected by seasonal weather changes. The roads link villages
and communities in the remote parts of each local government region. These roads are the
second category of main roads in Nigeria. They link the major cities within States with the
State capitals.
Trunk C. These roads are designed, developed, financed and maintained by the State
governments through their Ministries of Works, Transport or Infrastructure. The primary
objectives of Trunk B roads are to enhance the socio-economic development of the various
States in the country.
The total national road network is approximately 200,000 km made up of 33,000km, 50,000km
and 117,000km for Federal, State and Local Government respectively depicted by the chart
below. Only about 65,000 km of the 200,000 km are paved mostly in bituminous layers others
are earth roads. Out of this, the Federal Government owns about 35,000km representing 54%
24
of the entire bituminous road network in Nigeria. The balance is shared between the 36 States
and the 774 Local Government Areas.
Most of the freight and passenger movement in the country are conveyed by road. Even
though Federal roads constitute only 17% of the total national stock, they carry more than 80%
of the National vehicular traffic, thus underscoring their crucial importance to the economy of
the country. The Federal roads have been subjected to severe pressure as a result of
increased vehicular traffic as well as freight especially given the near absence of rail, marine
and other forms of transport to convey heavy goods.
Advancing towards a self-governing Federal Highway Authority, RSDT has a mandate to

initially manage the implementation of RSDMP on behalf of the Federal Ministry of works over
a 10-year period with the assistance of a USD330million credit from the International
Development Association - IDA (i.e. World Bank - WB), and a USD162million loan from the
African Development Bank (AfDB).
3.2.2 Pavement Types
The classified road network is made of different pavement types. Road sections with different
pavement types must be analysed separately, as their performance is often different. Most
importantly, in HDM-4 each pavement type has its own set of performance modelling
relationships. Based on the classified road network constitution, the following HDM-4
pavement types have been adopted for this study on the basis of the type of roads
encountered within the classified road network in Nigeria are bituminous and unsealed.
3.2.2.1 Bituminous Pavements
Asphalt Mix on Granular Base, referred to in the modelling as AMGB. This

pavement type includes roads with an asphalt concrete surfacing on granular base.
Asphalt Mix on Asphalt Base, referred to in the modelling as AMAB. This type of
pavement includes road with an asphalt concrete surfacing on asphalt base.
Surface Treatment on Granular Base, referred to in the modelling as STGB. This
pavement type includes roads with a surface dressing surfacing on a granular base.
3.2.2.2 Unsealed Pavements
Gravel, referred to the modelling as Gravel.

Earth, referred to the matrix identity as Earth.
Data samples for use in the calibration of Road Deterioration models were required for the
ten pavement types presented in Table 3.5. The extent of data that were available for each
pavement type is discussed in section 3.2.3 and Chapter 4.
Table 3.5: Existing Pavement Types

No. Description Notation Remarks
1 Asphalt Mix on Granular Base AMGB
2 Asphalt Mix on Asphalt Base AMAB
Bituminous road that has been
3 Asphalt Mix on Asphalt Pavement AMAP
overlaid with asphalt
Asphalt Mix on Stabilised Base
4 AMSB
25
No. Description Notation Remarks

5 Surface Treatment on Granular Base STGB
Surface Treatment on Stabilised
6 STSB
Base
7 Surface Treatment on Asphalt Base STAB
Surface Treatment on Asphalt Bituminous roads that have been

8 STAP
Pavement surface treated.
JPCP,
9 Rigid Concrete Pavement JRCP,
CRCP
10 Gravel Gravel
3.2.3 Pavement Ages
Five pavement age bands have been defined as shown in Table 3.6. This is useful for cross-
sectional analysis of road deterioration where time series data does not exist, as it is in this
study.
Table 3.6: Pavement Age

Pavement Age since construction, reconstruction or major
No. Description
periodic maintenance
1 New <2 Years
2 Recent 3 to 5 Years
3 Middle 6 to 10 Years
4 Advanced 11 to 15 Years
5 Old >15 Years
3.2.4 Number of Road Sections
Pavement defects data for road calibration modelling were elicited from a total of 338 road
sections. Table 3.7 summarises the number of road sections by climate zone and pavement
type. The actual defects elicited from the road sections are discussed in Chapter 4.
Table 3.7: Number of Road Section
Climate Zone Climate Zone Climate Zone Climate Zone
Pavement Type
1 2 3 4
Asphalt Mix on Granular Base
24 85 92 68
(AMGB)
Surface Treatment on
5 8 7 9
Granular Base (STGB)
Asphalt Mix on Asphalt
- - 4 -
Pavement (AMAP)
Asphalt Mix on Stabilised Base
- - - 36
(AMSB)
Note to Table 3.7:
26
(1) Data for climate zones and pavement types denoted as - was not available.
3.2.5 Pavement Defects
Data collected from the representative sections have been divided into two groups. The first
group of data, mainly of cross-sectional nature, are being used for an initial calibration of the
HDM-4 models. For this study the following data have been collected (or derived) at
predefined intervals along the representative bituminous road sections:
Rut depth, measured using a 2-metre straight edge or similar equipment, in mm

All cracking, expressed as a percentage of the total carriageway area
Wide cracking (>3 mm), expressed as a percentage of the total carriageway area
Ravelling, expressed as a percentage of the total carriageway area
Potholes, in number per km
Sand patch test to determine texture depth, in mm
Deflection measurement using the Falling Weight Deflectometer (FWD)
Coring to ascertain the exact thickness of the asphaltic layers
DCP testing to establish the granular layer thicknesses and strengths, and the type
and strength of the subgrade
Trial pits to confirm DCP data
Laboratory tests on the recovered cores to establish their Marshal and elastic
properties together with the properties of the recovered bitumen.
Ride quality (roughness) expressed in terms of the International Roughness Index (IRI
in m/km).
For unsealed road sections
Ride quality (roughness) expressed in IRI m/km

Material thickness
For all sampled road sections, data on classified traffic counts have been collected or derived
from secondary sources.
The second group of data is time-series based data and will be used to progressively improve
the calibration of HDM-4 to Nigerian conditions. Data collected over a minimum of four years
will be required for this purpose.
3.3 Traffic Characteristics
3.3.1 General
The two main sources of data on traffic characteristics used for this study were:
Traffic flow, speed and flow-pattern field surveys using non-traffic intrusive reliable
methods and SDR radar equipment;
Traffic volume, axle loading and speed-flow relationships from available sources,
especially recent study reports;
27
The following sub-sections describe the data collection methods and processing.
3.3.2 Traffic Flow, Speed and Pattern
For this study, vehicle speeds were observed on selected straight, flat, smooth, non-
congested road segments of different road types (2-lane, 4-lane, 6-lane roads) for both paved
and unpaved roads on the Federal road network. The survey was carried out from September
to November 2013.
The free speed of travel for vehicle types were determined on a number of selected road
sections on the Federal Road Network as part of the traffic flow, speed and pattern survey
carried out in September to November 2013. The observed mean speeds are shown in Table
3.9.
The objective of the field study was to collect data for use in deriving the traffic flow pattern
and configuring the speed-flow relationship embedded in HDM-4 to reflect local conditions, as
presented in Chapter 7.
The approach used is the moving car observer method, which provides estimates of hourly
volume; average travel time and space mean speed as a vehicle makes round trips through
the sections being investigated. These estimates are obtained by measuring travel time,
opposing vehicles, overtaking vehicles and passed vehicles.
The minimum number of runs on each study section was determined from Table 3.8. The
values in the table have a confidence level of 95% and are based on desired permitted error
and the average range in running speed. Robertson (1994) proposed the following error
ranges for estimation of mean travel speeds for different types of studies:
Transportation planning
and highway needs 3.0 mph (4.83 km/h) to 5.0 mph (8.05 km/h)
studies
Traffic operations, trend
analysis and economic 2.0 mph (3.22 km/h) to 4.0 mph (6.44 km/h)
evaluations
Before and after studies 1.0 mph (1.61 km/h) to 3.0 mph (4.83 km/h)
The data collected in this study was used to inform economic evaluations as well as
transportation planning and highway needs, therefore, a maximum error of 6.44 km/h was
recommended.
Table 3.8: Minimum Sample Size Requirements

Average range Minimum number of runs for a permitted error of:
in running speed 2.0km/h 3.5km/h 5.0km/h 6.5km/h 8.0km/h
5.0 4 3 2 2 2
10.0 8 4 3 3 2
15.0 14 7 5 3 3
20.0 21 9 6 5 4
25.0 28 13 8 6 5
30.0 38 16 10 7 6
The average range in running speed (C) in Table 3.8 is calculated using the following equation
28

= 1
(3.1)
Where: C = average range in running speeds in km/h, A = Sum of absolute differences

between each pair of sequential runs (km/h) N = Number of completed test runs. The average
range in running speed (C) can be derived following two initial runs but a minimum of four runs
is recommended.
Study Approach
This approach assumes that traffic flows are in a relatively steady state condition. It is based
on a survey vehicle that travels in both directions on the road. Considering Figure 3.1, the
survey vehicle is driven at an average speed within the speed limit of the particular road while
another observer holds a video camera and at the same time records the starting time and
ending time at points A and B along the study road section. The video camera captured the
opposing traffic volume, number of vehicles passed by the study car and the number of
vehicles overtaken by the test car. Where a video camera was not available, counts were
manually recorded on predesigned forms.
Inbound Outbound
(Ta, Yig, Yin) L
(Tw, Xi)
Study
Vehicle
Figure 3.1: Illustration of Moving Car Observer Study
The study was undertaken on roads with two-way flows where opposing vehicles were visible
at all times. The driver was able to turn around instantaneously at end of the pair run. Both
volume and speed measurements are obtained simultaneously through this method.
Classified counts (for each vehicle type i) should be made of vehicles met on the opposite
stream (Xi), vehicles overtaking the observation vehicle (Yig), vehicles overtaken by the
observation vehicle (Yin) and the journey times of the observation vehicle while travelling
against and with the traffic stream.
Flows were calculated for each vehicle category for each of the three road sections for the
inbound and outbound traffic streams using equation 3.2.
29
+
= +
(3.2)
where qi = flow of vehicle category i; Xi = average number of category i vehicles met by the
observation vehicle when travelling against the stream; Yi = average number of category i
vehicles overtaking the observation vehicle (denoted by Yig) less number overtaken (denoted
by Yin) by the observation vehicle; Ta = the journey time of the observation vehicle over a
section while travelling against the traffic stream; and Tw = the journey time of the observation
vehicle over a section while travelling with the traffic stream.
The average speed each category of vehicle (i) for the outbound and inbound stream for each
section is calculated using equations 3.3 and 3.4.

= (3.3)

where vi = average speed for category i vehicles and L = section length.

= (3.4)

The following resources and equipment were used for each run: Survey forms, a stop watch,
a video camera (manual counts are also possible), ensure batteries are fully charged a survey
vehicle with a driver, 2 observers, a length measure of the survey section.
The road segment of length "L" selected was located between two junctions and a minimum
length of 1 was used. At least 4 runs to and 4 runs fro were done at around 7am, 10am, 1pm,
4pm, 6pm and 9pm.
Table 3.9: Observed Free Speeds on Paved Roads

Free Speeds (in Km/hr)
Vehicle Category
Range Mean
01 Motorcycles 104 - 136 122
02 Small Car 119 - 143
03 Medium Car 136

04 Large Car
05 Four Wheel Drive 115 -148 132
06 Small Bus 89 -124 107
07 Medium Bus 80 -120
100
08 Big Bus
09 Light Delivery 80 - 122
101
10 Medium Delivery
11 Truck Rigid 2 Axles 76 - 113 95
30
Free Speeds (in Km/hr)

Vehicle Category
Range Mean
12 Truck Rigid 3 Axles 70 -98
13 Truck Rigid + 4 Axles 84

14 Multi-axle Truck
3.3.3 Traffic Counts
Existing traffic data on the Federal Road Network was obtained from the RSDT and FMW.
This consisted of estimates of Average Daily Traffic (ADT) on numerous points on the network.
For the purpose of this Study the estimate of ADT obtained from the short term counts was
assumed to represent the AADT. This assumption is unlikely to adversely affect the results of
the Study.
From the information obtained, representative traffic flows on each of the major links in the
Federal Road Network were determined. The analysis of these provided traffic flows on the
basis of weighted average flows on the numerous segments in each of the main links. The
weighted average figures on the defined links are used to illustrate the major link flows and
relative importance of these. Figure 3.2 presents these weighted average link flows.
Table 3.10: Representative Traffic Flows on Federal Road Network

Major Federal Road Link ADT Heavy Vehicles /Day
Lagos - Shagamu 40,000 5,000

Shagamu - Benin City 22,000 3,100
Shagamu - Ibadan 8,900 2,800
Benin - Warri - Port Harcourt 5,000 350
Port Harcourt - Aba 18,000 2,200
Aba - Enugu 12,000 2,000
Aba - Nlagu 8,900 2,000
Nlagu - Calabar 4,500 1,000
Enugu - Nkalagu 6,000 1,209
Nkalagu - Mfom 4,000 500
Benin City - Onitsha 14,500 2,500
Onitsha - Enugu 18,000 1,500
Benin City - Lokoja 7,300 1,000
Ibadan - Ilorin 10,000 2,500
Ilorin - Jebba 5,000 2,200
Mokwa-Bida 4,500 1,500
Bida - Abuja 2,200 550
31
Major Federal Road Link ADT Heavy Vehicles /Day
Lokoja - Abuja 9,000 900

Abuja - Kaduna 8,000 800
Abuja - Akwanga 5,700 250
Enugu - Makurdi 6,000 920
Makurdi - Akwanga 6,200 400
Akwanga - Jos 4,000 220
Jos - Bauchi 7,000 380
Bauchi - Yola 4,200 370
Kaduna - Zaria 11,000 920
Zaria - Sokoto 5,100 420
Sokoto - Illela 3,000 100
Zaria - Kano 10,000 700
Kano - Katsina 5,600 630
Kano - Potisku 4,000 300
Potisku - Maiduguri 5,000 920
Maiduguri - Ngala 3,000 1,000
Source: SSI Engineers and Environmental Consultants (Pty) Ltd., 2008
These figures have been obtained as a weighted average and have been rounded to
representative values.
Schematic representation of the above ADT and heavy vehicles per day is provided to give
visual illustration of the traffic and heavy vehicle distribution throughout the country. These
are illustrated in Figure 3.2 and 3.3 respectively.
An Independent axle load survey was conducted, in which 1,350 heavy vehicles were weighed
in 16 surveys conducted at 8 points on the Federal Road Network. The results of this survey
formed the basis for all the proposals in this report and are summarised in Table 3.11.
Table 3.11: Summary of Results of Independent Axle Load Survey

Heavy No. of No. of Average %
No. No. % vehicles
Vehicle Overloaded Overloaded Overloade
counted weighed Overloaded
Class vehicles axles d per axle
2 Axle 1479 316 97 30.7 114 36.1
3 Axle 656 162 100 61.7 192 57.4
4 Axle 1696 691 407 58.9 1112 51.1
5 Axle 648 166 89 53.6 287 46.8

6 & more
111 15 7 46.7 29 35.4
Axle
Totals 4590 1350 700 51.9 1734 48.8
32
If ECOWAS limits are used instead of the official legislated limits, the number and extent of
the overloading changes slightly, bringing the overloading down to approximately 684 of the
sampled vehicles, but with more of the axles of those vehicles overloaded, at 1782. Table
3.14 shows that 3 axle and 4 axle vehicles are more likely to be overloaded and recorded a
higher average overload per axle. This information was used to determine the equivalent axle
load factors, ESAL, for each representative vehicle type given in Table 3.1.
TRAFFIC BAND WIDTH SCHEMATIC

NIGER
LINK TRAFFIC KEY Illela
Katsina
Thickness = VPD
Sokoto CHAD
Maiduguri
Kano Potisku
40,000
BENIN Ngala
Zaria
Kaduna
20,000 Bauchi
Jos
Mokwa Yola
10,000 Abuja
Akwanga
5,000
Ilorin
Shagamu
2,000 Makurdi
Lokoja
Enugu CAMEROON
Lagos Benin City Onitsha

Mfum
Calabar
Port Harcourt
BIGHT OF BENIN
Figure 3.2: Schematic Representation of ADT on Federal Road Network
33
HEAVY VEHICLE TRAFFIC BAND WIDTH SCHEMATIC
LINK HEAVY VEHICLE NIGER
TRAFFIC KEY Illela
Katsina
Thickness = HVPD
100
Sokoto CHAD
630
42
0 1000
0 Kano 300 Potiskum 920
5,000 90
BENIN Ngala
Maiduguri
900
Zaria
Kaduna
2,000 Bauchi
Jos 380
800
570 370
Jebba 1500
0
Abuja Yola
22
1,000
0
250
220
Akwanga
900
500 00
400
28
Shagamu
Ilorin
Lokoja Makurdi
0
200
00
3,10
00
10
0
5,
92
2500 1500 Enugu
1000 CAMEROON
Lagos Benin City

35
00 1000 Mfum
0
22
Calabar
4,000
Port Harcourt
BIGHT OF BENIN
Figure 3.3: Schematic Representation of Heavy Vehicle ADT on Federal Road Network
The discontinuities in the heavy vehicle flows highlighted by the arrows in Figure 3.3 represent
areas in which the Federal Road Network is probably not the preferred route used by the
heavy vehicles on the particular link in question.
3.4 Road Works Data

Road works data have been collected from FMW and the Federal Road Maintenance Agency
(FERMA) for bituminous and unsealed surface classes. The information collected included
different road works activities under routine and periodic maintenance, improvement and
development works, and special works. Data have also been collected on maintenance history
for various treatment types, and the condition of the road pavement before and after treatment.
This information was used to calibrate HDM-4 works effects models for different types of
treatments such as new construction or reconstruction, overlay, and reseal. The financial unit
costs of road works items were also collected and expressed in economic terms.
3.5 Recommendation
In our comments on the ToR, we proposed that RSDT should set up Long-Term Pavement
Performance sites at the representative sections which we would identify under this
commission (refer to minutes of the inception included in Appendix C of this report). Such
sites should be clearly identified and permanent warning signs of conventional nature should
be placed at both ends of the section to inform the public that these are research sites that
will be subjected to frequent inspections and there may be delays in carrying out maintenance
works on these sections. If RSDT decide to extend the scope of this work to include the setting
of LTTP sites, then the second group of data will be collected for use in establishing sets of
time-series data from the selected representative road sections. These sets of data will
subsequently be used to refine the calibration and achieve full adaptation of HDM-4 to
Nigerian conditions. Regular monitoring of the selected calibration sections should be carried
34
out; initially this may be conducted biannually, but subsequently dropping to annually once
the basic patterns of behaviour have been established.
35
ROAD DETERIORATION MODEL CALIBRATION
4 ROAD DETERIORATION MODEL CALIBRATION
4.1 Introduction
The HDM-4 road deterioration models have a number of adjustment factors (or parameters)
and it is important to acknowledge the general level of sensitivity of the model to each
parameter so that appropriate emphasis can be given to important parameters and less
emphasis to second or third order effects. The influences of individual parameters differ
according to the nature of the parameter, the result being considered, and the values assigned
to other parameters for a given analysis. The sensitivity of results to variations in a parameter
therefore varies somewhat under different circumstances. For a detailed treatment of this
issue refer to Volume 5 of HDM-4 documentation series (Bennett and Paterson, 2000).
4.2 Climate Zones

Climate has a significant influence on road deterioration. In HDM-4, climate zones are defined
using temperature and moisture classifications. The rainfall map for Nigeria given in Figure
4.1 and temperature maps in Figures 4.2 and 4.3 were used to define climate zones for the
adaptation and calibration of HDM-4 to Nigerian conditions.
The maps suggest that the temperature ranges in Nigeria largely fall within the Tropical
temperature classification with temperature ranging between 18oC and 35oC. Delineation of
the country into climate zones was therefore largely influenced by the large variation in annual
rainfall. On this basis, four (4) climate zones described in Table 4.4 and illustrated in Figure
4.1 are proposed.
Table 4.1: Climate Zones

Climate Zone Description
Zone 1 areas receiving average annual rainfall in the range of 400 800 mm per year);
Zone 2 areas receiving average annual rainfall in the range of 800 1200 mm per year);
areas receiving average annual rainfall in the range of 1200 1800 mm per
Zone 3
year; and
Zone 4 areas receiving average annual rainfall in the range of >1800 mm per year
36
Figure 4.1: Map of Annual Rainfall in Nigeria including Proposed Climate Zones
Figure 4.2: Map of Annual Minimum Temperature
37
Figure 4.3: Map of Annual Maximum Temperature
Climate parameters specified for each zone for use in the HDM-4 model are provided in Table
4.2.
38
Table 4.2: Climate Zones Parameters
Average Temperature Range

Temperature Exceeds 32oC
Percentage of Driving Done

Mean Monthly Precipitation
Temperature Classification
on Water Covered Roads

Percentage of Driving on
Duration of Dry Season
Moisture Classification
Number of Days when
Snow Covered Roads

Mean Temperature
Moisture Index
Freeze Index
Climate Zone
Description
(oC)
areas receiving average annual rainfall in the range
Zone 1
of 400 800 mm per year);
Semi-arid Tropical 136 3 0 -40 57.5 26 8 0 5
areas receiving average annual rainfall in the range Sub-

Zone 2
of 800 1200 mm per year);
Tropical 94 4 0 0 72 26 9 0 10
humid
areas receiving average annual rainfall in the range Sub-

Zone 3
of 1200 1800 mm per year; and
Tropical 179 9 0 0 95 23 6 0 15
humid
areas receiving average annual rainfall in the range

Zone 4
of >1800 mm per year
Humid Tropical 104 1 0 60 246 26 3 0 20
39
4.3 Parameter Sensitivity

HDM-4 deterioration models are categorised according to the sensitivity classes summarised
in Table 4.3. This study aimed to calibrate model coefficients with high to moderate impacts
(Sensitivity classes I and II) as well as models for defects such as potholes and edge break
that have low impact but are prevalent on roads in Nigeria. The sensitivity of road deterioration
models are summarised in Table 4.4.
Table 4.3: HDM-4 Sensitivity Classes

Impact Sensitivity Impact Elasticity
High S-I >0.5
Moderate S-II 0.2 0.5
Low S-III 0.05 0.2
Negligible S-IV <0.05
Table 4.4: Sensitivity of Road Deterioration Models

Description Sensitivity to Outputs
Roughness-age-environment factor High

Cracking initiation High
Cracking progression High
Rut depth Low
Potholing Low
Edge break Low
The general roads roughness progression factor has low priority, despite its moderate
sensitivity, because its range is small based on many inter-country validation studies
conducted. The following sections describe the calibration of these HDM-4 deterioration
models to Nigeria roads conditions using the data that were available. Table 4.5 provides a
summary of the number of road sections used to inform the calibration for each pavement
defect. The observed defects are shown in the plots in Appendix D.
Table 4.5: Number of Road Sections

Climate Zone Pavement Type Rut Depth Edge Break Cracking
AMGB 24 24 12
1
STGB 5 5 4
AMGB 85 85 51
2
STGB 8 8 8
AMAP 4 4 4
3 AMGB 92 92 28
STGB 7 7 7
AMGB 68 68 51
4 AMSB 36 36 36
STGB 9 9 9
40
4.4 Roughness Age Environment Factor

The roughness-age-environment factor determines the amount of roughness progression
occurring annually on a non-structural time-dependent basis (due to environmental effects).
The factor adjusts the environment coefficient, m, which has a base value of 0.023 in the
model, representing 2.3 percent annual change in roughness that is independent of traffic as
illustrated in Equation 4.2.
= 0.023 (4.1)
Where Kgm is the roughness age-environment calibration factor, Rte is the change in the
roughness component due to environment in the 1st-year of analysis time increment and Rt
the roughness at the beginning of the year.
Sufficient data were not available to allow a detailed calibration to Level 2 hence Level 1
calibration was performed in accordance with guidance provided by Bennett and Paterson
(2000). This involved establishing Kgm values for each climate zone and ranges of road
construction material standards and drainage maintenance standards practiced in Nigeria in
accordance with the following steps set out in Volume 5 of the HDM-4 documentation:
Step 1 Identify environment applicable to roads in Nigeria and select appropriate

values of environmental coefficient m;
Step 2 Adjust the environmental coefficient (m) by multiplying with a factor Km which
represents the standard of road construction and drainage maintenance in
Nigeria to give an effective m-value, meff; and
Step 3 Calculate Kgm from meff as follows:

= (4.2)
0.023
Step 1: Environment Coefficient m
Figure 4.4 adapted from Bennett and Paterson (2000) shows the variation of the
environmental coefficient in semi-arid, sub-humid and humid tropical climate zones which are
typical of conditions in Nigeria. The environmental coefficient (derived from Figure 4.4)
corresponding to the climate zones in Nigeria (discussed in section 4.2) are summarized in
Table 4.6.
41
Figure 4.4: Plot of Environmental Coefficient with Mean Annual Rainfall
Table 4.6: Environmental Coefficient by Climate Zones

Nigerian Climate
Environmental
Climate Zone Moisture Typical Annual Coefficient (m)
Classification Rainfall (mm)
Zone 1 Semi arid 690 0.011
Zone 2 Sub-humid 864 0.017
Zone 3 Sub-humid 1140 0.022
Zone 4 Humid 2952 0.025
Step 2: Effective Environment Coefficient meff
The standard of road pavement construction and drainage in Nigeria ranges from the use of
high standard materials to materials of variable quality. To account for the effect of this
variability, the environmental coefficients m given in Table 4.7 were adjusted by multiplying
with factors provided in Table 4.8 for high, normal, and variable road construction and drainage
standards to give a climate zone and construction standard matrix of effective environmental
coefficient summarized in Table 4.9.
Table 4.7: Road Construction and Drainage Effects Factor

Factor
Standard Description
Km
Motorways
High Standard: Materials and
Raised formation
drainage of high engineering 0.6
Free draining materials
standards
Special drainage facilities
Normal Standard: Material Drainage and formation adequate for local
quality to normal engineering moisture conditions 1.0
standards Drainage moderately maintained
Including moisture susceptible material
Variable Standard: Variable
Inadequate drainage or poorly maintained 1.3
material quality in pavement
Formation near water table
42
Table 4.8: Effective Environmental Coefficient

Construction and Drainage Standards
Climate Zones
High Normal Variable
Zone 1 0.007 0.011 0.014
Zone 2 0.010 0.017 0.022
Zone 3 0.013 0.022 0.029
Zone 4 0.015 0.025 0.033
Step 3: Roughness-age-environment Calibration Factor
The roughness-age-environment calibration factor determined for each pavement and

construction and drainage standard using Equation 4.2 are given in Table 4.9.
Table 4.9: Roughness-age-environment Calibration Factor (Kgm)

Construction and Drainage Standards
Climate Zones
High Normal Variable
Zone 1 0.287 0.478 0.622
Zone 2 0.443 0.739 0.961
Zone 3 0.574 0.957 1.243
Zone 4 0.652 1.087 1.413
4.5 Cracking Initiation and Progression

HDM-4 models the time to initiation of cracking and the progression of the cracking using two
separate prediction models. Cracking initiation is predicted in terms of the surfacing age when
first visible crack appears on the road surface. Cracking is deemed to have started at the age
of the surface. HDM-4 effectively initiates cracking when 0.5% of the carriageway surface area
is cracked. During the progression phase, cracking gradually spreads to cover, eventually, the
entire pavement area if not treatment is applied.
While HDM-4 models both all and wide cracking, only data for all cracking was available.
Consequently wide cracking is not considered in this report. Table 4.10 gives the estimated
average observed time to cracking initiation by pavement time and climate zone.
Ideally the calibration of cracking initiation and progression should cover the complete
spectrum of pavement types and climate zones that exist on the Nigerian road network. Data
necessary to facilitate this detailed level of calibration was not available for use in this study,
instead an average observed time to cracking initiation on paved National roads of 5 years
estimated from limited data was used to derive calibration factors by pavement type and
climate zones.
43
Table 4.10: Estimated Observed Time to Cracking Initiation
Pavement Type
Climate Zone
AMAB1 AMAP2 AMGB AMSB3 STGB STSB4
Zone 1 6.5 6.5 7.5 6.1 6 6
Zone 2 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.1 6.1 6.1
Zone 3 6.5 6.5 6 6.1 5.8 5.8
Zone 4 6.5 6.5 5.8 6.1 5 5
Notes to Table 4.10:
1. Data for Asphalt Mix on Asphalt Base (AMAB) pavement type was not available, time
to cracking initiation for this pavement type was assumed the same as the observed
cracking initiation time for Asphalt Mix on Asphalt Pavement (AMAP).
2. Due to lack of data, time to cracking initiation on AMAP for Zones 1, 2 and 3 were
taken to be the same as the cracking initiation time determined for Zone 3.
3. Due to lack of data, time to cracking initiation on AMAP for Zones 1, 2 and 4 were
taken to be the same as the cracking initiation time determined for Zone 4.
4. Data for estimating the average time to cracking initiation for Surface Treatment on
Stabilised Base (STSB) was not available, hence values for Surface Treatment on
Granular Base (STGB) were used.
The default HDM-4 cracking initiation calibration factor (Kcia) of 1 was adjusted to achieve
estimated time to cracking initiation in Table 4.10, results are summarized in Table 4.11. The
calibration factor for cracking progression model (Kcpa) were generally calculated as the
inverse of the cracking initiation factor according to Bennett and Paterson (2000), these factors
are summarized in Table 4.11.
Table 4.11: Summary of Cracking Initiation and Progression Factors

1 2 3 4
Pavement Type
Kcia Kcpa Kcia Kcpa Kcia Kcpa Kcia Kcpa

1.18 0.85 1.22 0.82 1.23 0.81 1.50 0.67
Base (AMAB)
1.11 0.90 1.14 0.88 1.1 0.91 1.21 0.83
Pavement (AMAP)
Asphalt Mix on Granular
1.36 0.74 1.13 0.88 1.15 0.87 1.56 0.64
Base (AMGB)
Asphalt Mix on Stabilised
0.31 3.23 0.30 3.33 0.38 2.63 0.08 1.00
Base (AMSB)
44

1 2 3 4
Pavement Type
Kcia Kcpa Kcia Kcpa Kcia Kcpa Kcia Kcpa
0.7 1.43 0.72 1.39 0.7 1.43 0.60 1.00
Granular Base (STGB)
0.75 1.33 0.80 1.25 0.8 1.25 0.67 1.49
Stabilised Base (STSB)

1. Kcia = Calibration factor for Cracking Initiation model
2. Kcpa = Calibration factor for Cracking Progression model
3. Climate zones are defined in sub-section 4.2 of this report.
4.6 Ravelling Initiation and Progression

The adjustment factor for ravelling initiation and progression has low impact on most
applications, since observed ravelling data was not available, it is reasonable to retain the
default value of 1 for it.
4.7 Rutting
There are four components of rutting modelled in HDM-4, namely:
Initial densification;
Structural deformation;
Plastic deformation; and
Surface wear due to studded tyres.
Initial densification is a function of degree of relative compaction of the base, subbase and
selected subgrade layers. The effect is predominant during the first year of the pavement life.
Observed data was not available so the initial densification calibration factor Krid was set to
the default value of 1.
Plastic deformation occurs in thick bituminous roads (asphalt) under high temperature and
heavy traffic loading and stationary or slow moving loads as experienced at road intersections
and on heavily traffic roads. The default calibration factor (Krpd) for plastic deformation was
used due to lack of data for the calibration. This factor can be adjusted on particular roads that
exhibit this defect, e.g. at the project level.
The structural wear due to studded tyres component of rutting is not applicable in Nigeria and
thus not considered.
Progression of rutting was therefore modelled using the structural deformation model. Average
observed rutting trend was derived from cross-sectional analysis of rutting data and pavement
age by climate zone. Table 4.12 sets out the average observed rutting data used for the
calibration.
45
Table 4.12: Average Rut Depths by Climate Zone, Pavement Type and Age Group
Rut Depth (mm) by Pavement Age Group (Years)
Climate Pavement Sections
Zone Type (Number) New Recent Middle Advanced Old
(<2 Years) (3-5 Years) (6-10 Years) (11-15 Years) (>15 Years)
AMGB 24 0.9 3.6 8.2 21.5 26.6

1
STGB 5 4.3 2.5 7.7 - 22.25
AMGB 85 2.5 3.3 7.7 14.5 26.2

2
STGB 8 - 4.1 - - 27.4
AMAP 4 - 4.6 8.8 - 28.2
3 AMGB 92 1.1 4.3 7.2 13.4 23
STGB 7 - 4.8 7.8 - 24.5
AMGB 68 1 3.5 7.4 11.9 25.9
4 AMSB 36 4.3 8.8 5.4 12.5 24.1
STGB 9 - 3.5 7.5 11.9 23.9
1. denotes age groups for which average observed rutting data were not available;
The following assumptions were used to estimate observed rut depth trends on representative
calibration sections with missing data:
Climate Zone 1: representative data for the pavement types Asphalt Mix on Asphalt
Base (AMAB), Asphalt Mix on Asphalt Pavement (AMAP) and Asphalt Mix on
Stabilised Base (AMSB) were not available, observed rut depth trends on these
sections were assumed on average to be similar with observations within Climate Zone
1 for Asphalt Mix on Granular Base (AMGB). Furthermore, representative rut depth
data for Surface Treatment on Stabilised Base (STSB) were assumed to be similar to
that observed within Climate Zone 1 for Surface Treatment on Granular Base (STGB);
Stabilised Base (AMSB) were not available, observed rut depth trends on these
2 for Asphalt Mix on Granular Base (AMGB). Representative rut depth data for Surface
Treatment on Stabilised Base (STSB) were assumed to be similar to that observed
within Climate Zone 2 for Surface Treatment on Granular Base (STGB);
Base (AMAB) and Asphalt Mix on Stabilised Base (AMSB) were not available,
observed rut depth trends on these sections were assumed on average to be similar
with observations within Climate Zone 3 for Asphalt Mix on Granular Base (AMGB).
Representative rut depth data for Surface Treatment on Stabilised Base (STSB) were
assumed to be similar to that observed within Climate Zone 3 for Surface Treatment
on Granular Base (STGB); and
46
Base (AMAB) and Asphalt Mix on Asphalt Mix on Asphalt Pavement (AMAP) were not
available, observed rut depth trends on these sections were assumed on average to
be similar with observations within Climate Zone 4 for Asphalt Mix on Granular Base
(AMGB). Representative rut depth data for Surface Treatment on Stabilised Base
(STSB) were assumed to be similar to that observed within Climate Zone 4 for Surface
Treatment on Granular Base (STGB).
Calibration was performed by climate zone since structural rutting is affected by cracking and
subsequently rainfall. Table 4.13 gives the derived rutting progression calibration factors which
were determined as the ratio of the slope of the observed rut depth trend to the slope of the
trend predicted by HDM-4 using a default calibration factor of 1.
Table 4.13: Summary of Rutting Progression Calibration Factors

Climate Calibration Factor
Pavement Type Slope (Observed) Slope (Predicted)
Zone (Krst)
AMAB 1.278 0.234 5.46

AMAP 1.278 0.23 5.56
AMGB 1.278 0.228 5.61
1
AMSB 1.278 0.257 4.97
STGB 1.012 0.271 3.73
STSB 1.012 0.271 3.73
AMAB 1.149 0.238 4.83
AMAP 1.149 0.234 4.91
AMGB 1.149 0.239 4.81
2
AMSB 1.149 0.282 4.07
STGB 1.363 0.277 4.92
STSB 1.363 0.281 4.85
AMAB 1.323 0.256 5.17
AMAP 1.323 0.251 5.27
AMGB 1.085 0.269 4.03
3
AMSB 1.085 0.33 3.29
STGB 1.215 0.312 3.89
STSB 1.215 0.317 3.83
AMAB 1.323 0.298 4.44
AMAP 1.323 0.322 4.11
AMGB 1.01 0.41 2.46
4
AMSB 1.137 0.727 1.56
STGB 1.065 0.544 1.96
STSB 1.065 0.577 1.85
47
4.8 Potholing
According to the HDM-4 Calibration Manual, the calibration factor for pothole progression has
a low impact on maintenance alternatives except patching, it is therefore reasonable in most
cases to adopt the default value of 1 in most cases.
If patching alternatives are expected to dominate and the prediction of potholes using the
default factor 1 is significantly different from observations, then the calibration factor should
be adjusted. Sufficient observed data was not available to allow such assessments and
calibration to be performed.
4.9 Edge Break

Edge break refers to the loss of surface, and possibly base materials from the edge of the
pavement. It is prevalent on roads in Nigeria particularly where unpaved shoulders exist and
traffic activities are high. Time series records of age break on Nigerian roads were not
available, to this end, information elicited from various states for selected representative road
sections were used to inform the calibration. The data were banded by climate zone, pavement
types and age groups and is summarised in Table 4.14 following cross-sectional analysis.
The following assumptions were used to estimate observed edge break trends on
representative calibration sections with missing data:
Stabilised Base (AMSB) were not available, observed edge break trends on these
1 for Asphalt Mix on Granular Base (AMGB). Furthermore, representative edge break
data for Surface Treatment on Stabilised Base (STSB) were assumed to be similar to
that observed within Climate Zone 1 for Surface Treatment on Granular Base (STGB);
Stabilised Base (AMSB) were not available, observed edge break trends on these
2 for Asphalt Mix on Granular Base (AMGB). Representative edge break data for
Surface Treatment on Stabilised Base (STSB) were assumed to be similar to that
observed within Climate Zone 2 for Surface Treatment on Granular Base (STGB);
Base (AMAB) and Asphalt Mix on Stabilised Base (AMSB) were not available,
observed edge break trends on these sections were assumed on average to be similar
with observations within Climate Zone 3 for Asphalt Mix on Granular Base (AMGB).
Representative edge break data for Surface Treatment on Stabilised Base (STSB)
were assumed to be similar to that observed within Climate Zone 3 for Surface
Treatment on Granular Base (STGB); and
Base (AMAB) and Asphalt Mix on Asphalt Mix on Asphalt Pavement (AMAP) were not
available, observed edge break trends on these sections were assumed on average
to be similar with observations within Climate Zone 4 for Asphalt Mix on Granular Base
(AMGB). Representative edge break for Surface Treatment on Stabilised Base (STSB)
48
were assumed to be similar to that observed within Climate Zone 4 for Surface
Treatment on Granular Base (STGB).
Table 4.15 gives the derived edge break calibration factors for each pavement type by climate
zone.
Table 4.14: Average Edge Break by Climate Zone, Pavement Type and Age Group
Sections Edge Break (m/km) by Pavement Age Group

Climate Pavement
(Number New Recent Middle Advanced Old
Zone Type
) (<2 Years) ( 3 - 5 Years) (6 - 10 Years) (11 - 15 Years) (>15 Years)
AMGB 24 0 0 2.8 6.1 36.9

1
STGB 5 0 0 2.9 - 34
AMGB 85 0 0 2.8 13 33.3
2
STGB 8 - 0 - - 40.4
AMAP 4 - 0 4.2 - 46.1
3 AMGB 92 0 1.3 2.5 11 29.7
STGB 7 - 0 0 - 35.4
AMGB 68 0 0 1.9 8.9 33.8
4 AMSB 36 0 4.1 0.9 8.8 32.2
STGB 9 - 0 2.3 8.4 27.3
Table 4.15: Average Edge Break by Climate Zone, Pavement Type and Age Group
Edge Break Calibration Factor (Keb) by
Climate Zone
Pavement Type
Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4
Asphalt Mix on Asphalt Base (AMAB) 1.296 1.216 1.053 0.654
Asphalt Mix on Asphalt Pavement (AMAP) 1.365 1.286 1.109 0.64
Asphalt Mix on Granular Base (AMGB) 0.587 0.51 0.41 0.275
Asphalt Mix on Stabilised Base (AMSB) 1.001 0.82 0.72 0.485
Surface Treatment on Granular Base (STGB) 0.302 0.297 0.26 0.211
Surface Treatment on Stabilised Base (STSB) 0.451 0.443 0.377 0.233
4.10 Roughness
Calibration of roughness progression on paved roads was not performed because of its
dependence on the various types of calibrated models described in previous sub-sections.
Further adjustment would require time series data that were not readily available for use in
this study.
49
4.11 Gravel Loss on Unsealed Roads

Gravel loss is defined as the change in gravel thickness over a period of time. It is used to
estimate when the thickness of the gravel wearing course has decreased to a level where
regravelling is necessary. Annual quantity of gravel loss is predicted by HDM-4 as a function
of monthly rainfall, traffic volume, road geometry and characteristics of the gravel.
The calibration of the gravel loss deterioration model requires data on the properties of typical
unsealed surfacing and subgrade material typical of Nigeria together with recorded data on
gravel loss which are normally obtained over a number of years following field observations.
Table 4.16 summarises average material properties (provided by the Ministry of Works) for
three climate zones (see section 4.2). Data for climate zone 1 was not available.
Table 4.16: Typical Observed Gravel Loss

Maximum Percentage Passing Sieve Size
Climate Plasticity
Pavement Layer Particle
Zone Index
Size 2 0.425 0.075
Zone 2 10.1 13.8 81.2 44.5 30
Surfacing Zone 3 12.6 12.2 68 49.3 33
Zone 4 17 25 61 41 27
Zone 2 6.1 8.2 88 58.1 30.4
Subgrade Zone 3 11.5 23 77 59 51
Zone 4 3.1 5.4 86 57 15.7
Regravelling interval in Nigeria typically varies between 3 to 8 years. Based on this interval,
typical scenarios of gravel loss rates given in Table 4.17 were derived on the basis that the
surfacing thickness of newly regravelled unsealed roads is 150mm.
Table 4.17: Typical Observed Gravel Loss

Typical Gravel Loss
Scenarios Regravelling Interval (Years)
(mm/Year)
A 8 18.75
B 7 21.4
C 6 25
D 5 30
E 4 37.5
F 3 50
The HDM-4 gravel loss model was then calibrated for each climate zone by adjusting the
calibration factor for gravel loss (Kgl) so that the predicted rate matched the observed rate on
each site. The calibration was performed for the following three traffic levels:
Low - 100 AADT;

Medium - 300 AADT;
High - 800 AADT;
50
Table 4.18 gives the default HDM-4 predicted gravel loss rates (before calibration) as well as
the calibration factors for adjusting the model to achieve the gravel loss rates reported in Table
4.17.
Table 4.18: Summary of Observed and HDM-4 Predicted Gravel loss and Calibration
Factor
Gravel Loss Calibration Factor (Kgl) by Gravel Loss
Default HDM-4
Scenario (See Table 5.13)
Climate Traffic Predicted
Zone Level Gravel Loss
(mm/Year) A B C D E F
Low 19.05 0.98 1.13 1.32 1.58 1.99 2.65
Zone 2 Medium 29.91 0.61 0.71 0.84 1 1.26 1.69
High 55.05 0.32 0.37 0.44 0.53 0.67 0.91
Low 19.03 0.99 1.13 1.32 1.58 1.99 2.65
Zone 3 Medium 31.79 0.57 0.66 0.78 0.94 1.18 1.58
High 60.73 0.28 0.33 0.39 0.48 0.6 0.81
Low 13.48 1.39 1.59 1.85 2.23 2.78 3.71
Zone 4 Medium 19.91 0.94 1.08 1.26 1.51 1.9 2.55
High 29.94 0.61 0.7 0.83 1\ 1.25 1.68
The results presented in Table 4.18 does not include calibration factors for climate zone 1 due
to lack of data on typical properties of materials that are available or used in this zone. Since
climate zones 1 and 2 are geographically adjacent to each other, calibration factors derived
for zone 2 could in the meantime be used for analysis of unsealed roads located in climate
zone 1. It is however recommended that future improvements to the calibration should
consider deriving specific calibration factors for unsealed roads in zone 1 on the basis of the
properties of surface and subgrade material properties in zone 1.
4.12 Rigid Concrete Pavements

Rigid concrete constitute a very small percentage of the Federal road network. Reliable data
for rigid concrete pavements were not available to enable a meaningful calibration of the RD
models in HDM-4. The calibration of HDM-4 RD models for rigid concrete models was
therefore not performed. The Consultant recommends that data on the performance of rigid
concrete pavements should be collected in the future to enable HDM-4 RD model calibration.
51
ROAD WORKS EFFECTS MODEL CALIBRATION
5 ROAD WORKS EFFECTS MODEL CALIBRATION
5.1 Introduction
Road works are divided under two main categories under HDM-4 namely: preservation and
development. Preservation of the existing pavements involves performing maintenance works
to offset the deterioration of roads as well as lowering road user cost by providing a smooth
running and keeping the road open on a continuous basis. Development works are aimed at
expanding the capacity of the network through the provision of stronger pavement and the
improvement of the geometric characteristics in order to minimize the total cost of road
transportation and to mitigate environmental impacts. Within the above two broad categories,
road works are considered in classes. The works classes consider road works in terms of their
frequency of application and the budget head used to fund them. The work classes adapted
in line with planning, programming and project practices in Nigeria are summarised in Table
5.1.
5.2 Effects of Road Works

Definition of the effects of road works activities given in Table 5.1 is an important requirement
in life cycle modelling of road pavement deterioration. These effects vary by pavement type
and construction practice. The effect of overlay on roughness is of high sensitivity because it
dictates future deterioration rates and thus maintenance activities.
Meaningful calibration of the HDM-4 work effects models requires data recorded immediately
before and after road works on representative road sections. Such data were not available for
use in this study, instead, effects of each work activity were defined where defined using expert
knowledge elicited through structured interviews with the Ministry of Works Engineers. Default
HDM-4 work effects model parameters is suggested for some work activities. A review of the
proposed works effects (Table 5.1) is recommended when suitable data is available.
52
ROAD WORKS EFFECTS MODEL CALIBRATION
Table 5.1: Summary of class, type of works (activities) and effects adapted for Nigeria
Work
Work Class Work Type Work Activity/Operation Effects
Category
Derived in HDM-
Spot Regravelling
4 using defaults
Derived in HDM-
Grading
4 using defaults
Ditch Cleaning
Routine Re-excavation of Drainage
Maintenance Ditches
Drainage Cleaning and Repair Culverts
Very Good
Maintenance Desilting Culverts
Repair of Cracks on
Drainage Structures
Erosion and Scour Repairs
Placing of adequate subbase
gravel on an existing gravel Roughness = 4
Regravelling
road to strengthen the IRI
Preservation pavement.
Placing of a fresh seal coat on
an existing bituminous Derived in HDM-
Resealing
surfaced to seal cracks and 4 using defaults
improve resistance.
Placing of asphaltic concrete
Periodic on an existing bituminous Roughness = 2.5
Maintenance Overlay surfaced or asphaltic IRI, Rut Depth =
concrete road to strengthen 0mm
the pavement
Scarifying of existing
bituminous surfaced road,
strengthening the base layer Roughness = 2.5
Partial
with addition of adequate IRI, Rut Depth =
Reconstruction
thickness of base material 0mm
and applying surface
treatment.
Full Pavement construction
Roughness = 2
and drainage structures may
Reconstruction IRI, Rut Depth =
involve widening and re-
0mm
alignment
Mainly Partial Pavement
Roughness = 2
Improvement Major reconstruction and drainage
IRI, Rut Depth =
Rehabilitation structures may not involve
0mm
Development widening and re-alignment.
Gravel to Bituminous Surface Roughness = 2
Upgrading Treated (BST) IRI, Rut Depth =
BST to Asphaltic Concrete 0mm
Dualization Roughness = 2
New
New Section Missing Links IRI, Rut Depth =
Construction
By-pass Construction 0mm
53
ROAD USER EFFECTS MODEL CALIBRATION
6 ROAD USER EFFECTS MODEL CALIBRATION
6.1 Introduction
Road User Costs (RUC) comprises of Vehicle Operating Costs (VOC), travel time, vehicle
emissions, accident and energy use along with developmental effects.
6.2 Speed Prediction Model

The two most sensitive factors in the speed prediction model include the free speed and the
driving power. For most of the other factors level 1 or HDM-4 default values have been
adopted.
6.2.1 Free Speed
The HDM-4 speed prediction model is mechanistic, being based on physical and kinematic
principles, as well as behavioural constraints. Consequently, the basic physical model is highly
transferable and Level 2 Calibration should give first priority to speed and capacity.
The HDM-4 speed model predicts that speeds are the probabilistic minimum of five
constraining speeds based on:
Power
Braking
Curvature
Roughness
Desired speed
This assumes that the physical performance of the vehicle has been properly calibrated by
identifying valid representative values of other important vehicle characteristics, namely:
Vehicle mass
Used driving power
Braking power
The key behavioural constraint parameters are as follows;
VDESIR - the desired speed of travel

This can be expected to differ considerably between countries, and even regions within
the same country. VDESIR represents the maximum speed of travel adopted by the
driver of a vehicle when no other physical constraints, such as gradient, curvature,
roughness or congestion, govern the travel speed. The value of VDESIR is influenced
by factors such as speed limits and enforcement, road safety, cultural and behavioural
attitudes.
For this study, vehicle speeds were observed on selected straight, flat, smooth, non-
congested road segments of different road types (2-lane, 4-lane, 6-lane roads) for
both paved and unpaved roads as described in Chapter 3.
- the draw down
54
Indicates how far from the constraining speeds the predicted speed will be. is the
Weibull Shape Parameter. It is functionally related to the dispersion of the underlying
distribution of the constraining speeds. The value of were determined using the data
collected on vehicle free speeds presented in Chapter 3.
The desired speed of travel for vehicle types were determined on a number of selected road
sections on the Federal Road Network as part of the traffic flow, speed and pattern survey
carried out in September to November 2013. The observed mean speeds are shown in Tables
3.12 and 3.13.
The HDM-4 model was run on a road section with average representative condition reflecting
observations during the speed estimates. Adjustments were then made to the VDESIR values
by applying the ratio of the observed and predicted speed plus modifications of ' following
each model run until the predicted speed was the same as the observed speed for each
representative vehicle type. The final values are given in Table 6.1.
Table 6.1: Estimated " Values for each Representative Vehicle

Representative Vehicle Value
(a) Motorcycle 0.182

(b) Car Small 0.201
(c) Car Medium 0.201
(d) Car Large 0.201
(e) Four Wheel Drive 0.217
(f) Bus Small 0.217
(g) Bus Medium 0.289
(h) Bus Large/Coach 0.321
(i) Light Delivery Vehicle 0.201
(j) Medium Delivery Vehicle 0.201
(k) Truck Rigid 2-axle 0.318
(l) Truck Rigid 3/4 Axle 0.164
(m) Truck Multi-axle Truck & Trailer 0.164
(n) Truck Horse & S-Trailer 3/4 Axles 0.164
(o) Truck Horse & Semi-Trailer 5/6 Axles 0.164
(p) Truck Horse and semi-Trailer 7 Axles 0.164
(q) Truck Horse & 2 Trailers 0.164
6.2.2 Vehicle Driving Power
The driving power only has a significant effect on speeds when the gradient is positive and
higher than 4% for light vehicles and 2-3 % for heavy vehicles. In Nigeria, this case particularly
applies to the plateau regions and the central hilly areas and where we encounter some hills.
For a level 2 calibration the used power can be estimated from the attributes using the
following equations:
HPDRIVE = 0.70HPRATED (Diesel Vehicles) (6.1)
HPDRIVE = 2.0HPRATED0.7 (Petrol Vehicles) (6.2)
55
Where:
HPDRIVE is the used driving power (kW)
HPRATED is the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) maximum rated engine

power (kW)
Table 6.2 gives the estimated vehicle driving power for each vehicle.
Table 6.2: Vehicle Driving Power

Fuel Observed
Representative Vehicle HPDRIVE (kW)
Type HPRATED (kW)
(a) Motorcycle Petrol 8.8 6.2
(b) Car Small Petrol 88.0 45.9
(c) Car Medium Petrol 98.0 49.5
(d) Car Large Petrol 133.0 61.3
(e) Four Wheel Drive Diesel 138.0 96.6
(f) Bus Small Diesel 100.0 70.0
(g) Bus Medium Diesel 110.0 77.0
(h) Bus Large/Coach Diesel 210.0 147.0
(i) Light Delivery Vehicle Diesel 113.0 79.1
(j) Medium Delivery Vehicle Diesel 129.0 90.3
(k) Truck Rigid 2-axle Diesel 240.0 168.0
(l) Truck Rigid 3/4 Axle Diesel 300.0 210.0
(m) Truck Multi-axle Truck & Trailer Diesel 320.0 224.0
(n) Truck Horse & S-Trailer 3/4 Axles Diesel 300.0 210.0
(o) Truck Horse & Semi-Trailer 5/6
Diesel 340.0 238.0
Axles
(p) Truck Horse and semi-Trailer 7
Diesel 375.0 262.5
Axles
(q) Truck Horse & 2 Trailers Diesel 460.0 322.0
6.3 Side Friction

For modeling traffic flows and effects on vehicle operating costs (VOC), HDM-4
considers three types of friction:
Friction to motorized transport arising from roadside activities, XFRI (e.g. different
types of land use and encroachment to the road right of way). XFRI value also
ranges from 0.4 (high friction level) to 1.0 (no friction)
Friction to motorized transport due to the presence of non-motorised transport XNMT
(e.g. pedestrians, bicycles, animal carts). XNMT value ranges from 0.4 (high
friction level) to 1.0 (no friction)
Friction to non-motorised transport arising from motorized transport using the
road, XMT. Values of XMT also ranges from 0.4 to 1.0.
56
The Consultant has made observations on a number of road sections of different types and
analysed the information collected to provide a guide to determine values of XNMT, XMT
and XFRI on different roads in Nigeria. Defaults values provided in HDM-4 would need to be
adjusted to reflect side specific observations as well as analysis objectives.The following
three parameters, called speed reduction factors, are used to model the three types
of friction described above. These are defined in Table 6.3.
Table 6.3: Rating Friction due to MT

Grade Description
1 No friction
2 Moderate friction
3 High friction
For Grade 1 rating of friction the values of XNMT, XFRI and XMT will be 1.0.
For Grade 3 rating, the procedure for determining the values of XNMT and XFRI will be as
follows:
(i) Identify a sample of the road sections most severely affected by friction
(ii) Determine the average free speed of motorized traffic (SF) on the road
sections, or use the average design speeds of the sampled roads instead
(iii) Observe the average operating speed of motorized traffic (SO) on the road
sections
(iv) Calculate the ratio of SO to SF. The ratio denoted by FR should then be
compared with the minimum default in HDM-4 which is (0.4 x 0.4 = 0.16). If
FR is less than 0.16 reset the value of FR to be 0.16. This means that if SF is
100 km/h the average operating speeds of motorized traffic will be reduced to
16 km/h due to friction arising from both roadside activities and the presence
of non-motorised transport.
The values of XNMT and XFRI for Grade 3 rating of friction will be given by the following
equation:
X = (FR)0.5 (6.3)
Where X = XNMT or XFRI value for Grade 3
For any intermediate level of friction (e.g. Grade 2 rating of friction) the values of XNMT and
XFRI will be obtained from the following equation:
Y = 0.5(1 + X) (6.4)
Where Y = XNMT or XFRI value for Grade 2

X = XNMT or XFRI value for Grade 3
For modeling NMT, the values of XMT should be as follows:

For Grade 1 XMT = 1.0; for Grade 2 XMT = 0.7; and for Grade 3 XMT = 0.4
Intermediate values can be obtained by interpolation when data is required at a more
detailed level.
The photographs in Figures 6.1 to 6.4 show different levels and types of side friction in
Nigeria.
57
Figure 6.1: High level of friction
Figure 6.2: Intermediate level of friction, high level of road side activities
58
Figure 6.3: Intermediate level of friction due to presence of animals
Figure 6.4: Low level of friction
59
6.4 Fuel Consumption

The HDM-4 fuel consumption model predicts fuel consumption as proportion of the power as
follows:
= (, Ptot) (6.5)
Where:
IFC is the instantaneous fuel consumption (ml/s);

is the idle fuel consumption (ml/s);
is the power-to-fuel efficiency factor (ml/kW.s); and
Ptot is the total power requirements (kW).
Data required for the calibration of the fuel consumption model was elicited from road side
interviews of drivers who normally travel on several national roads throughout the country.
Data collected for each vehicle included: vehicle type, vehicle category, age of vehicle, type
of fuel used, trip origin, trip destination, approximate trip distance, average travel time, and
amount of fuel used.
The collected data was used to derive the following data types: average fuel consumption
(litres per 1000 vehicle kilometres), average road gradient, and total power requirement (kW).
The calibration parameter was estimated for each vehicle type by running HDM-4 for a typical
road section and adjusting .until the predicted fuel consumption closely matches the
observed values for each vehicle type. The results are shown in Table 6.4.
Table 6.4: Estimated " Values for each Representative Vehicle

Observed
Default Fuel
Fuel Calibrate
Consumptio
Vehicle Type Consumptio Default
n (l/100 veh-
n (l/100 veh- d
km)
km)
(a) Motorcycle 33.86 41.049 0.067 0.084
(b) Car Small 117.81 108.283 0.067 0.062
(c) Car Medium 132.04 127.466 0.067 0.065
(d) Car Large 154.45 129.239 0.067 0.056
(e) Four Wheel Drive 158.36 124.456 0.057 0.045
(f) Bus Small 175.04 127.860 0.067 0.049
(g) Bus Medium 212.21 142.315 0.057 0.038
(h) Bus Large/Coach 378.24 229.167 0.057 0.034
(i) Light Delivery Vehicle 156.76 187.619 0.067 0.080
(j) Medium Delivery Vehicle 217.87 142.315 0.067 0.044
(k) Truck Rigid 2-axle 322.05 223.494 0.057 0.040
(l) Truck Rigid 3/4 Axle 486.3 332.000 0.057 0.038
(m) Truck Multi-axle Truck & Trailer 760.6 524.367 0.055 0.038
(n) Truck Horse & S-Trailer 3/4 Axles 550.48 403.133 0.056 0.041
Axles 697.21 480.665 0.055 0.038
60
Observed
Default Fuel
Fuel Calibrate
Consumptio
Vehicle Type Consumptio Default
n (l/100 veh-
n (l/100 veh- d
km)
km)
Axles 722.48 498.087 0.055 0.038
(q) Truck Horse & 2 Trailers 927.39 639.354 0.055 0.038
6.5 Spare Parts Consumption

Calibration of parts consumption model was achieved by adjusting the rotational parts
consumption calibration factor so that the observed parts consumption for each vehicle type
was the same as the predicted values for an average road condition. Predicted default vehicle
parts consumption presented in Table 6.5 were mostly higher than values elicited from
surveys. The calibration was thus performed on the basis that a large number of vehicles used
in Nigeria are second hand imports. Furthermore, the road network may on average be
described as being in fair to poor condition with medium vehicle utilisation in general.
The generally high ages of the vehicles implies higher parts consumption but this is
counteracted by the following factors:
Lower standard of vehicle maintenance and service which results in lower parts
consumption;
Medium vehicle utilisation hence less parts consumption;
Availability of cheaper locally manufactured or improvised vehicle parts;
The existence of cannibalism practices i.e. removing spare parts from on vehicle and
fitting them on another vehicle.
Table 6.5: Parts Consumption Data and Model Calibration Factors

Parts Consumption per 1000
veh-km Rotational
Vehicle Type
Default Calibration Factor
Observed
Prediction
(a) Motorcycle 0.081 0.079 1.023
(b) Car Small 0.105 0.215 0.489
(c) Car Medium 0.113 0.220 0.514
(d) Car Large 0.139 0.209 0.666
(e) Four Wheel Drive 0.115 0.146 0.789
(f) Bus Small 0.140 0.226 0.619
(g) Bus Medium 0.112 0.112 1.001
(h) Bus Large/Coach 0.143 0.103 1.392
(i) Light Delivery Vehicle 0.158 0.239 0.662
61
Parts Consumption per 1000

veh-km Rotational
Vehicle Type
Default Calibration Factor
Observed
Prediction
(j) Medium Delivery Vehicle 0.174 0.214 0.815

(k) Truck Rigid 2-axle 0.105 0.150 0.699
(l) Truck Rigid 3/4 Axle 0.174 0.303 0.574
(m) Truck Multi-axle Truck & Trailer 0.139 0.333 0.418
(n) Truck Horse & S-Trailer 3/4 Axles 0.157 0.303 0.518
0.131 0.333 0.394
Axles
0.148 0.333 0.445
Axles
(q) Truck Horse & 2 Trailers 0.139 0.333 0.418
6.6 Tyre Wear

The tyre type and the number of wheels are used in HDM-4 for establishing the rolling
resistance. Bias ply tyres have greater rolling resistance than radial tyres, and the resistance
increases with an increasing wheel diameter and number of wheels. Tyre sizes have a
standard typology. The two most common types are shown in Figure 6.5 (HDM-4
Documentation, Volume 5) along with a description of what each term means. The top
typology is common with truck tyres and is based on the nominal section width being
expressed in inches. The second is used for all vehicles and has the nominal section width
given in mm along with the aspect ratio.
The wheel diameter can be estimated from the tyre typology using the following equation:
(6.6)
Figure 6.5: Standard Tyre Typology
62
Where:
DIAM: is the wheel diameter (mm)
xxx: is the nominal width of the tyre (mm)
yy: is the aspect ratio
zz: is the rim size (inches)
The numbers of wheels and tyre type have been established through the VOC survey. The
full results are presented in Table 6.6. Since the vehicle and trailers may have different tyre
types, the tyre consumption has be calculated separately for the vehicle and trailer and then
combined to give the total tyre consumption. We determined tyre consumption using the HDM-
4 standard methodology provided in Volume 7 of the HDM-4 documentation.
In calibrating the HDM-4 Tyre wear model, we determined the tyre wear coefficient and the
wearable rubber volume using data on tyre types and frequency of tyre replacements by
vehicle fleet operators and the general public in Nigeria. Tyres with thinner grooves are
considered to last longer. From previous experience in calibrating this model, we have often
found that legal limits in terms of depth of the grooves on the tyres are not normally fully
followed. We investigated if this situation is prevalent in Nigeria and found that is the case too.
We, therefore, use it to inform the calibration of the model. It should also be noted that the
quality of the rubber used in manufacturing the car tyres has an effect on the rate of wear and
the volume of wearable rubber.
Table 6.6: Calibration Coefficient for Tyre Wear Model

Constant Wear Coefficient Wearable Rubber
Representative Vehicle
Term, dm3 dm3/J-m Volume, dm3
(a) Motorcycle 0.00575 0.0005 0.35
(b) Car Small 0.02354 0.00204 1.4
(c) Car Medium 0.02354 0.00204 1.4
(d) Car Large 0.02354 0.00204 1.4
(e) Four Wheel Drive 0.02160 0.00187 1.6
(f) Bus Small 0.02160 0.00187 1.6
(g) Bus Medium 0.02397 0.00207 6
(h) Bus Large/Coach 0.02779 0.00241 8
(i) Light Delivery Vehicle 0.02160 0.00187 1.6
(j) Medium Delivery Vehicle 0.02160 0.00187 1.6
(k) Truck Rigid 2-axle 0.02160 0.00187 1.6
(l) Truck Rigid 3/4 Axle 0.03176 0.00275 8
(m) Truck Multi-axle Truck & Trailer 0.03589 0.00311 8
(n) Truck Horse & S-Trailer 3/4 Axles 0.03176 0.00275 8
0.03589 0.00311 8
Axles
0.03589 0.00311 8
Axles
(q) Truck Horse & 2 Trailers 0.03589 0.00311 8
63
6.7 Vehicle Exhaust Emissions

HDM-4 can be applied to predict vehicle emissions considered to be the most damaging to
the natural environment and human health. These includes the following types of vehicle
exhaust emissions: Hydrocarbon (HC), Carbon monoxide (CO), Nitrous Oxide (NO), Sulphur
Dioxide (SO2), Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Particulates (Par) and Lead (Pb).
The emission models included in HDM-4 predict vehicle exhaust emissions as a function of
vehicle speed, fuel consumption and vehicle service life. Data suited for calibrating the
emission models to conditions in Nigeria were not available. However, since the fuel
consumption, speed and service life models were calibrated, the effects will be reflected in the
emissions model outputs. Default HMD-4 emission model parameters is recommended.
64
HDM-4 CONFIGURATION
7 HDM-4 CONFIGURATION
7.1 Climate Zones

Four climate zones were used to categorise the Nigerian road network. Detailed description
including HDM-4 climate input data for each zone are given in Section 4.2.
7.2 Traffic Flow Pattern

The data that describes the hourly traffic flows and the volume-capacity ratios required for
modelling congestion effects on vehicle speeds and vehicle operating costs will be derived
from traffic data obtained from DGER. The key parameters are as follows:
Qp: The traffic flow, in PCSE per hour, during each traffic flow
period p.
VCRp: The volume-capacity ratio for each traffic flow period p.
Hourly flow-frequency distribution data are specified for each road use category. This reflects
the fact that the predominant use of different roads requires different shapes of flow-frequency
distribution curves. The curves are defined in terms of the number of hours per year that the
traffic volume is at a certain percentage of the AADT. Each specified flow-frequency
distribution can then be assigned to a group of road sections
To determine traffic flow pattern encountered within the Nigeria road network, the traffic
database has been scanned and data from annual automatic counts and temporary stations
have been evaluated.
The hourly traffic flow for each flow-frequency period is expressed as a proportion of AADT,
and is given by:
(7.1)
Where:
HVp is hourly traffic flow in period p, as a proportion of AADT
PCNADTp is percentage of AADT in period p
HRYRp is number of hours per year in period p
The traffic flow during each flow period is calculated as follows:
(7.2)
Where:
65
HDM-4 CONFIGURATION
Qp: hourly traffic flow in period p (PCSE per hour)
AADTk: annual average daily traffic of vehicle type k
PCSEk: passenger car space equivalent of vehicle type k
The volume-capacity ratio during each traffic flow period is expressed as follows:
Table 7.1 summarises traffic flow pattern defined for Nigeria for four road use types.
Table 7.1: Traffic Flow Pattern

Hours Per Year
Road Use Flow Period % AADT (PCNADTp)
(HRYRp)
A 87.6 3.10
B 350.4 11.33
Commuter C 613.2 17.00
D 2978.4 58.26
E 4730.4 10.31
A 87.6 2.17
B 350.4 7.59
Inter-Urban C 613.2 11.00
D 2978.4 40.24
E 4730.4 39.00
A 87.6 4.25
B 350.4 13.24
Seasonal C 613.2 16.60
D 2978.4 40.32
E 4730.4 25.59
Free Flow A 8760 100
7.3 Speed Flow Type

The average speed of each vehicle type is required for calculating vehicle operating costs,
travel time, energy use and emissions. The speeds of MT vehicles are influenced by a
number of factors, which include:
Vehicle characteristics
Road severity characteristics, for example, road alignment, pavement condition,

etc
The presence of non-motorised transport (NMT)
66
HDM-4 CONFIGURATION
Roadside friction, for example, bus stops, roadside stalls, access points to roadside
development, etc.
Total MT traffic volume
The speed-flow model adopted for each motorised transport (MT) is the three-zone model
proposed by Hoban et al. (1994). This model is illustrated in Figure 7.1 below.
Figure 7.1: Illustration of Speed Flow Model
The following notation applies to Figure 7.1:
Qo - the flow level below which traffic interactions are negligible in PCSE/h
Qnom - nominal capacity of the road (PCSE/h)
Qult - the ultimate capacity of the road for stable flow (PCSE/h)
Sult - speed at the ultimate capacity, also referred to as jam speed (km/h)
Snom - speed at the nominal capacity (km/h)
S1 to S3 - free flow speeds of different vehicle types (km/h)
PCSE - passenger car space equivalents
The model predicts that below a certain volume there are no traffic interactions and all vehicles
travel at their free speeds. Once traffic interactions commence the speeds of the individual
vehicles decrease until the nominal capacity where all vehicles will be travelling at the same
speed, which is estimated as 85% of the free speed of the slowest vehicle type. The speeds
can then further decrease towards the ultimate capacity beyond which unstable flow will arise.
67
HDM-4 CONFIGURATION
Table 7.2: Capacity and speed-flow model parameters

Speed Flow Qult Sult
Width (m) XQ1 XQ2
Type (PCSE/hour/lane) (km/hr)
Single-Lane
<4 0 420 600 10
Road
Intermediate
4 4.5 45 630 900 20
Road
Two-Lane
5.5 - 7 130 1170 1300 23
Narrow
Two-Lane
7-8 140 1255 1375 25
Standard
Two-Lane Wide 8 - 12 320 1440 1600 30
Four-Lane Road >12 800 1900 2000 40
Six-Lane Road >21 1040 2400 2600 40
7.4 Road Network Aggregate Data

Configuration of aggregate data involves the definition of aggregate information for the
following:
Traffic levels: e.g., low, medium, high;

Geometry class: in terms of parameters reflecting horizontal and vertical alignment;
Pavement characteristics: structure and strength parameters defined according to
pavement surface class;
Road condition: ride quality, surface distress and surface texture; and
Pavement history: construction quality, pavement age, etc
The aggregate data represent a set of default values that may be used in case data is lacking.
It also sets the classes and categories used for the segmentation of the road network into
homogeneous representatives or physical sections. The proposed aggregate classes include
the following:
Road Class - This will cover all the road classes defined for the Nigeria road network
Traffic Volume - Five traffic classes have been proposed as follows:

o Very Low
o Low
o Medium
o Heavy
o Very Heavy
Geometry Class - Seven geometry classes have been proposed for the Nigeria road
network to represent the different types of terrain encountered in the country:
o Straight and level
o Mostly straight and gently undulating
o Bendy and generally level
o Bendy and gently undulating
68
HDM-4 CONFIGURATION
o Bendy and severely undulating

o Winding and gently undulating
o Winding and severely undulating
Construction Quality - The following five default construction quality classes have been
proposed for this configuration.
o Good
o Fair-brittle
o Fair-soft
o Poor-brittle
o Poor -soft
Structural Adequacy - Three Classes have been proposed for the Nigeria Road
Network
o Warning
o Acceptable
o Strong
Roughness - Three Roughness Classes have been proposed as follows:

o Poor
o Fair
o Good
Surface Condition - Three Surface Condition Classes have been proposed as follows:
o Good
o Fair
o Poor
Surface Texture/Friction - Three Surface Texture/Friction Classes have been defined

as follows:
o Coarse
o Medium
o Fine
Section Aggregate Tables
Traffic volume
For each road section, traffic level is specified in terms of annual average daily traffic (AADT)
flow. At aggregate data level, traffic volume is defined in bands or levels. Detailed data values
are associated with these in terms of the mean AADT.
The following defines a traffic band: description and road surface class. The road surface class
to which the traffic band applies that is bituminous, concrete or unsealed.
Traffic Band
Five traffic bands were defined for each road surface class. Tables 7.3 and 7.4 show the
detailed traffic levels assumed related to the five road classes, with the following default levels:
Very Low
Low
Medium
Heavy
Very Heavy
69
HDM-4 CONFIGURATION
The representative ADT weighted average value for each traffic band was calculated from
existing data. The default values indicated are mid-point measures and must be replaced with
calculated averages wherever possible.
Table 7.3: Default Traffic Volume on Bituminous Roads

Traffic Traffic Band & Default AADT (in vehicles/day) by Road Class
Class Representative Value A B C D
Very Band >5001 >5001 >5001 >5001
Heavy
Rep. Value 7500 7500 5500 5500
Heavy Band 2001 - 5000 2001 - 5000 2001 - 000 2001 - 5000
Rep. Value 3500 3500 3500 3500
Medium Band 1001 - 2000 1001 - 2000 1001 - 2000 1001 - 2000
Rep. Value 1500 1500 1500 1500
Low Band 501 - 1000 501 - 1000 501 - 1000 501 - 1000
Rep. Value 750 750 750 750
Very Band <500 <500 <500 <500
Low
Rep. Value 250 250 250 250
Table 7.4: Default Traffic Volumes on Unsealed Roads

Traffic Traffic Band & Default AADT (in vehicles/day) by Road Class
Class Representative Value Trunk A Trunk B Trunk C Trunk D
Very Band >1001 >1001 >1001 >1001

Heavy Rep. Value 1250 1250 1250 1250
Band 501 - 1000 501 - 1000 501 - 1000 501 - 1000
Heavy
Rep. Value 750 750 750 750
Band 251 - 500 251 - 500 251 - 500 251 - 500
Medium
Rep. Value 375 375 375 375
Band 101 - 250 101 - 250 101 - 250 101 - 250
Low
Rep. Value 175 175 175 175
Very Band <250 <250 <250 <250
Low Rep. Value 100 100 100 100
Geometry Aggregate Table
At the aggregate level, road geometry in Nigeria has been defined in terms of various
parameters reflecting horizontal and vertical curvature. These represent geometry classes and
apply to a group of roads.
The following detailed data (see Table 7.5) defines a geometry class:
Description
Average rise plus fall (m/km)
Number of rises and falls per kilometre (no/km)
Average horizontal curvature (deg per km)
Superelevation (at bends) - represented as a percentage (%). If not available as in the
case of Nigeria, values of superelevation can be derived from the average horizontal
curvature, C, as follows: bituminous roads (e = 0.012*C), unsealed roads (e =
0.017*C).
70
HDM-4 CONFIGURATION
The following data have also been defined together with a road geometry class:
Speed limit (km/h)
Speed limit enforcement factor (default = 1.1)
The number of geometry classes defined is at the discretion of the user. Table 4.7 resents the
detailed data assumptions relating to the default geometry classes for the Nigeria road
network. The values given can be amended if necessary.
Table 7.5: Default Geometry Characteristics

No. Geometry Rise + Number of Horizontal Superel Speed
Class Fall rises and curvature evation limit
(m/km) falls per km (deg/km) (%) (km/h)
1 Straight and level 1 1 3 2 120
Mostly straight and gently
2 10 2 15 2.5 120
undulating
3 Bendy and generally level 3 2 50 2.5 110
4 Bendy and gently undulating 15 2 75 3 80
5 Bendy and severely undulating 25 3 150 5 70
6 Winding and gently undulating 20 3 300 5 60
Winding and severely
7 40 4 500 7 50
undulating
Construction Quality Aggregate Table

The construction quality for bituminous pavements is described at the aggregate data level by
values such as good, fair, poor, etc. The actual data details to be specified relate to
construction defect indicators.
In the case of the Nigeria road network, five construction quality classes have been used, and
for each class the following information has been provided:
Description
Construction defect indicator for bituminous surfacing, CDS
Construction defect indicator for road base, CDB
Relative compaction, (%)
The default values for construction quality relating aggregate to detailed data are shown in
Table 7.6.
Table 7.6: Default Construction Defect Indicators

Construction defect
Construction defect
Construction indicator for Relative
indicator for Road Base
Quality Bituminous Surfacing Compaction (%)
(CBS)
(CDS)
Good 1.0 0 98
Fair-brittle 0.75 0.8 91
Fair-soft 1.25 0.8 91
Poor-brittle 0.50 1.5 85
Poor-soft 1.50 1.5 85
Structural Adequacy Aggregate Table
The parameters that are used in HDM-4 to describe pavement characteristics vary according
to road surface classes. The strength of bituminous pavements is defined by their structural
adequacy to carry traffic loading. At aggregate data level, structural adequacy is defined in
terms of qualitative descriptors/measures such as good, fair, poor, etc. The detailed data
71
HDM-4 CONFIGURATION
values relating to these are in terms of the Adjusted Structural Number of the Pavement (SNP).
The detailed data have been assigned by traffic level.
The default data assumptions for structural adequacy of bituminous pavements in terms of
three qualitative descriptors Warning, Acceptable, and Strong, for different traffic bands (that
is, low, medium, and high), defined for Nigeria are shown in Table 7.7.
Table 7.7: Default SNP Values

Traffic Bands
Structural Adequacy
High Medium Low
Warning 2.5 2.0 1.5
Acceptable 3.5 2.5 2.0
Strong 4.0 3.5 2.5
Bituminous Layer Aggregate Table
The SNP values defined as measures for structural adequacy is also used in HDM-4 to
represent pavement layer thickness. For each SNP range, and for each pavement type (plus
the option of all pavement types), the following have been defined for Nigeria and their
default values indicated in Table 7.8.
most recent (new) surfacing thickness (mm)

previous/old surfacing thickness (mm)
road base thickness if base type is stabilised base SB (mm)
Table 7.8: Default Pavement Layer Thicknesses

Structural Adequacy Surface Thickness (mm) Stabilised Base Thickness (mm)
New Old
SNP < 2.5 10 15 150
2.5 < SNP < 4.0 15 20 200
4.0 > SNP 25 25 300
Ride quality is an indication of the roughness of the road. It is an important parameter for
indicating road condition and maintenance needs, and for predicting vehicle operating costs.
At the aggregate level, ride quality is defined in terms of qualitative measures such as good,
fair, poor, etc. The detailed data values related to these are in terms of roughness IRI (m/km),
and are assigned by road class.
The default data assumptions for Nigeria for ride quality of bituminous pavements, and
unsealed roads in terms of three qualitative measures (good, fair, and poor), for different road
classes. The weighted average roughness values are calculated for each cell from existing
data using roughness ranges indicated in Table 7.9.
Table 7.9: Default Riding Quality Data

Paved Road Roughness Unsealed Road Roughness
Road Roughness ranges and
(m/km) (m/km)
Class Rep. Values
Good Fair Poor Good Fair Poor
Band < 3.0 3.1 4.0 > 4.1 <5 5.1 - 7 >7.1
A
Rep. Value 2.5 3.5 4.5 4 6 9
Band < 4.0 4.1 5.0 > 5.1 <7 7.1 10 > 10.1
B
Rep. Value 3.5 4.5 5.5 6 9 12
72
HDM-4 CONFIGURATION
Paved Road Roughness Unsealed Road Roughness

Road Roughness ranges and
(m/km) (m/km)
Class Rep. Values
Good Fair Poor Good Fair Poor
Band <4 4.1 5.5 > 5.6 <9 9.1 - 14 > 14.1
C
Rep. Value 4 5 6.5 8 12 16
Band <6 6.1 8.5 > 8.6 < 12 12.1 - 16 > 16.1
F
Rep. Value 5.5 7 8.5 10 14 16
Surface Condition Aggregate Table
Surface condition is modelled by a number of distress modes. At the aggregate level surface
condition can be defined by a qualitative measure (for example, new, good, fair, poor) that
represents several distress modes. These distress modes differ depending on whether the
surface class is bituminous or unsealed.
For each of the two paved road surface classes available in Nigeria, and for each qualitative
measure of surface condition used, a default value for each of the distress modes has been
defined for the Nigeria road network
The weighted average distress values calculated for each cell from existing data using
distress ranges indicated in Table 7.10.
Table 7.10: Paved Surface Condition Default Values

Levels of Distresses by mode
Surface Distress Band & Rep.
Total area Edge Mean rut
Condition Value Ravelling Potholing
Cracking break depth
(%) (no/km)
(%) (m2/km) (mm)
Band 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
New
Rep. Value 0 0 0 0 0
Band 0-5 0-5 0-0 05 08
Good
Rep. Value 1.5 2 0 0 3.5
Band 5 - 10 5 - 10 0-5 0 - 10 8 - 15
Fair
Rep. Value 6.5 7 3 6 9
Band > 10 > 10 >5 > 10 > 15
Poor
Rep. Value 25 30 12 25 17
For unsealed roads, surface condition and structural adequacy are both related to the traffic
level and are represented by the thickness of the gravel surfacing. For each qualitative
measure of surface condition and for each of the pre-defined traffic bands, a set of default
values of gravel thickness for unsealed roads are given in Table 7.11.
Table 7.11: Unsealed Surface Condition Default Values

Pavement Distress Band & Rep. Surfacing material thickness (mm) by Traffic Band
Structural Value High Medium Low
Adequacy
Good Band 200 - 250 150 - 200 150 - 180
Rep. Value 200 180 150
Fair Band 150 - 200 100 - 180 80 - 150
Rep. Value 190 160 135
Poor Band < 150 < 100 < 80
Rep. Value 80 50 30
73
HDM-4 CONFIGURATION
Texture/Friction Aggregate Table
At the aggregate data level, surface texture can be defined by a qualitative measure (for
example, coarse medium, fine or slippery, etc) that gives an indication of the texture depth
and skid resistance of the surface. In the current version of HDM-4, these parameters are
modelled only for bituminous pavements.
For each qualitative measure of surface texture, and for each of the surface types (AM or ST),
mean values have been assigned for the sand patch texture depth and skid resistance at 50
km/h (SCRIM).
The default values used for Nigeria at the detailed data level are given in Table 7.12.
Table 7.12: Default Texture/Skid Resistance Values

Texture Class ST Pavements Asphalt Pavements
Texture Depth Skid Resistance Texture Depth Skid Resistance
(mm) (SFC50) (mm) (SFC50)
Very Coarse 2.5 0.6 1.5 0.5
Coarse 1.5 0.5 1.0 0.4
Medium 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.35
Fine 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3
74
CONCLUSION
8 CONCLUSION
The Draft Final Report has been prepared addressing all the objectives in the Terms of
Reference. The Draft Final Report has presented the HDM-4 configuration and calibration
work and the results obtained. Phase 1 activities have been completed. Phase 2 activities
have taken longer than initially expected because of the difficulties and unforeseen situations
regarding data acquisition. Nevertheless, this has now been completed. Phase 3 activities
which relate to HDM-4 Configuration have been completed. The work activities under phases
4, 5, 6 and 7 have been completed.
Comments received at the Inception and after the submission of the Interim have all been
addressed. .
The calibrated HDM-4 model can now be used to carry out specific project, programming and
strategy analysis under the operating environment and climatic condition of Nigeria.
Programming of works to be executed over a given period of time say 5 to 10 year horizon
based on current road condition for the various classes of road in under the jurisdiction of the
respective Road Agencies in Nigeria can now objectively be assessed. Strategy Analysis can
now be carried for the entire road network and use as the basis to focus budget in a
constrained budget scenario. The total budget required to fix the perennial maintenance
backlog can now be addressed and used as a basis to engage the development partners in
soliciting of loans and grants. The government outfit with ministerial oversight on the road
agencies can now use the HDM-4 analysis to direct attention in a given area of the road
network through policy.
In order to effectively use the calibrated HDM-4 model, base data must be updated and
sustained and a system put in place to enable annual data collection thereafter. There is the
need for staff training of the road agencies staff in the proper use of the HDM-4 model to
enable its use for feasibility studies, programming of works and strategic planning of the road
network. The workspace has also been customised in accordance with Nigerian local condition
and the relevant Look-up tables all reviewed.
75
REFERENCES
9 REFERENCES
1. Bennett, C.R. and Paterson, W.D.O. (2000). A Guide to Calibration and Adaptation
Volume 5. International Study of Highway Development and Management Series,
World Road Association (PIARC), PARIS. ISBN: 2-84060-063-3
2. Bennett, C.R. and Greenwood, I. (2004). Modelling Road User and Environmental
Effects in HDM-4 Volume 7. International Study of Highway Development and
Management Series, World Road Association (PIARC), PARIS. ISBN: 2-84060-103-6
3. MCS Consulting, December 2011. State of Infrastructure Report on Nigerian Highways
4. Morosiuk G., Riley M.J. and Odoki J.B., (2004). Modelling Road Deterioration and
Works effects - Volume 6 of The Highway Development and Management Series.
International Study of Highway Development and Management (ISOHDM), World
Road Association PIARC, Paris. ISBN: 2-84060-102-8
5. Nigerian Metrological Department, 2013, Abuja
6. Odoki, J.B. & Kerali, H.G.R. (2000). Analytical Framework and Model Descriptions
Volume 4. International Study of Highway Development and Management Series,
World Road Association (PIARC), PARIS. ISBN: 2-84060-062-5
7. SSI Engineers and Environmental Consultants (Pty) Ltd., 2008. Axle Load Study
8. TANROADS - Vehicle Operating Costs Study, Final Report - July 2004 (DHV)
9. Ted R. Miller, Variations between Countries in Values of Statistical Life. Journal of

Transport Economics and Policy, Vol 34, Part 2, May 2000
10. TRRL Limited, (1988). A guide to road project appraisal, Road Note 5. Transport and
Road Research Laboratory, Crowthorne, Berkshire, UK
76
APPENDICES
77
APPENDIX A: TERMS OF REFERENCE
78
CONSULTING SERVICES FOR CONFIGURATION AND CALIBRATION OF HDM-4 TO

NIGERIA CONDITIONS
GENERAL
The Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) through the Federal Ministry of Works (FMW) with financial
assistance from the World Bank intends to procure the services of a consultant to carry out Configuration
and Calibration of the Highway Development and Management Model (HDM-4) to Nigeria conditions
aimed at improving decision-making on expenditures in the road sector by enabling effective and
sustainable utilisation of the latest HDM-4 knowledge. The proposed configuration and calibration
exercise will develop the basis for an effective implementation of decision-support methods and
computerised tools for use by the FMW, RSDT and other related agencies with the aim of achieving
sustainable operation. The configuration and calibration will be done for the latest version of HDM-4
(Version 2.08).
HDM-4 simulates future changes to the road system from current existing conditions. The reliability of
the results is dependent upon two primary considerations:
How well the data provided to the model represent the reality of current existing conditions and
influencing factors, in the terms understood by the model; and
How well the predictions of the model fit the real behaviour and the interactions between various
factors for the variety of conditions to which it is applied.
The former relates to the correct interpretation of data input requirements and achieving a quality of
input data that is appropriate to the desired reliability of the results. The latter refers to calibration of
outputs, and it concerns adjusting the model parameters to enhance how well the forecast and outputs
represent the changes and influences over time and under various interventions in Nigeria.
The prediction of road deterioration constitutes the backbone for life-cycle analysis and economic
assessment in the HDM-4. Thus, the importance of carrying out a proper calibration of the road
deterioration models to Nigeria conditions can scarcely be overstressed.
It is required that the HDM-4 works activities be adapted to model the performance and effects of the
different road works types in Nigeria.
OBJECTIVES
The HDM-4 system requires several inputs that require configuration and comprises several models that
are designed to be calibrated to local conditions in order to ensure accurate prediction of pavement
performance and road user costs. As part of the HDM-4 implementation project in Nigeria it is necessary
to configure the model and calibrate the various models in HDM-4:
Road Deterioration and Works Effects (RDWE)
Road User Effects (RUE)Traffic Characteristics
Configuration of the model is needed in the following areas:
79
Vehicle Fleet Characteristics
Road Works Unit Costs
Asset Value Calculation Parameters
Maintenance and Improvement Standards
Accident Rates
Others (Climate zones, speed flow type, traffic flow patterns, road network aggregate data,
economic parameters, etc.)
Each of these will be configured and calibrated by the appointed consultant jointly with the aid of staff of
RSDT. This section describes the proposed tasks required for calibration and adaptation of HDM-4 to
Nigeria conditions.
There are three levels of calibration for the HDM-4, which involves low, moderate and major levels of
effort and resources, as follows:
Level 1 Basic Application (Configuration)
Determines the value of required basic input parameters, adopts many default values, and calibrates
the most sensitive parameters with best estimates, desk studies or minimal field surveys.
Level 2 Calibration
Requires measurement of additional input parameters and moderate field surveys to calibrate key
predictive relationships to local conditions. This may entail slight modification of the model source code.
Level 3 Adaptation
Undertakes major field surveys and controlled experiments to enhance the existing predictive
relationships or to develop new and locally specific relationships for substitution in the source code of
the model.
In terms of effort, these levels can be viewed as weeks, months and years. A Level 1 calibration can be
conducted in weeks. For a Level 2 calibration there is an increase in the amount of effort required so it
will take months. Level 3 calibrations require a long-term commitment to basic data collection so their
duration will be for a year or more.
For this project, the target level of the configuration and calibration study is Level 2 calibration, and the
calibration will concentrate on the most important parameters as measured by impact sensitivity. The
ultimate objective is to adapt the HDM-4 works activities to model the performance and effects of the
different road works types in Nigeria and also for budgetary planning process.
Impact elasticity is the ratio of the percentage change in a specific result to the percentage change of
the input parameter, holding all other parameters constant at a mean value. For example, if a 10 per
cent increase in traffic loading causes a 2.9 per cent increase in roughness developed after 15 years,
the impact elasticity term of traffic loading for that roughness result is 0.29. If there were a 2.9 per cent
decrease, the value would be -0.29.
HDM-4 has four classes of model sensitivity, which have been established as a function of the impact
elasticity. The higher the elasticity, the more sensitive the model predictions are. These classes are
listed in Table A2.1.
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Table A2.1 HDM-4 sensitivity classes
Impact Sensitivity class Impact elasticity
High S-I > 0.50
Moderate S-II 0.20 - 0.50
Low S-III 0.05 - 0.20
Negligible S-IV < 0.05
Source: HDM-4 Series Volume 5 A Guide to Calibration and Adaptation.
HDM-4 Volume 5 recommends that efforts should be based on the results of these sensitivity analyses.
Those data items or model coefficients with moderate to high impacts (S-I and SII) should receive the
most attention. The low to negligible impact (S-III and S-IV) items should receive attention only if time
or resources permit. One usually assumes the default HDM-4 values for S-III and S-IV items since these
will generally give adequate results.
HDM-4 Volume 5 discusses the configuration, calibration and adaptation of HDM-4, thus, shall be used
by the consultants as a guide for their work. The consultants shall review the HDM-4 calibration efforts
done in other countries that are documented on the http://www.lpcb.org/lpcb/ website at:
http://www.lpcb.org/lpcb/index.php?option=com_docman&task=cat_view&gid=22&Itemid=32
SCOPE OF THE CONSULTANCY SERVICES
Study
The Level 2 calibration will be based on analysis of records held in the FMW, FERMA and RSDT.
However, it will be necessary to carry out field surveys as well as additional monitoring of pavement
performance and collection of vehicle fleet and traffic data in order to provide complete data sets
necessary to achieve this level of calibration.
The Consultant during the calibration of the HDM-4 to Nigeria conditions needs to take information from
the existing records, historical and present survey of road inventory, pavement condition, traffic,
maintenance and improvement standards unit costs of road works, vehicle characteristics, and vehicle
operating costs (VOC) such that a Level 2 calibration can be achieved. This will require a careful review
and understanding of:
Past working methods and materials used for the construction and maintenance of the road
network.
Deterioration profiles for each road surface class and pavement structure type observed from
survey data collected.
Current methods of road works, standards and works effects applicable to periodic maintenance;
the material properties, expected life and unit costs of works activities.
Traffic information and speed-flow relationships
81
Road user effects including vehicle characteristics and utilisation, vehicle resource consumption
and unit costs, and road safety.
Environmental impacts
Subsequently, the Consultant would be required to conduct studies to calibrate the different components
of HDM-4 as follows:
Pavements and materials - to calibrate road deterioration and works effects models.
Road user effects to calibrate the VOC models, fuel consumption, travel time valuation and
accident costing and other road user components.
Traffic traffic characteristics, vehicle speeds, and accident rates.
The studies and final reports are expected to be completed in Nine (9) months.
The calibration procedure will involve the following aspects:
Desk study to identify data and information sources, to collate information and carry out basic
analysis
Sampling to select pavement sections from different climatic zones, vehicle fleet operators and
workshops from different regions, and road sections of different traffic flow characteristics, which
are representative of Nigeria. Statistical analysis may be used in the selection process.
Field surveys and measurements to collect data on pavement ages, traffic loading, road condition,
pavement structural number, pavement type, and drainage environment type; to collect data on
vehicle resources e.g. fuel consumption.
Evaluation to determine the calibration factors and model coefficients, by comparing the initiation
and progression of the different distress modes from the collected data and data available from
existing records in Nigeria against the prediction of HDM-4 (with default parameters).
After the configuration and calibration work is done, the consultants shall setup an HDM-4 workspace
containing all the configuration and calibration data collected for the study. This HDM-4 workspace and
its accompanying documentation could then be distributed to persons interested on running HDM-4 in
Nigeria. This HDM-4 workspace shall contain at least:
Nigerian Road network broken down by road classes for network strategic analysis;
Sample cement concrete road sections
Sample asphalt concrete road sections
Sample surface treatment road sections
Sample gravel road sections
Sample earth road sections
Vehicle fleet characteristics and calibration parameters
Traffic growth sets
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Default unit costs of road works in financial and economic terms
Asset Value Calculation Parameters
Basic maintenance standards
Basic improvement standards
Sample evaluations for projects module
Sample evaluations for programmes module
Sample evaluations for strategies module
HDM-4 configuration parameters (traffic flow patterns, speed flow types, accident classes, climatic
zones currencies, aggregate data, road deterioration calibration parameters)
Road Deterioration and Works Effects
Road deterioration is broadly a function of the original design, material types, construction quality, traffic
volume, axle load characteristics, road geometry, environmental conditions, age of pavement, and the
maintenance policy pursued. HDM-4 includes relationships for modelling Road Deterioration (RD) and
Road Works Effects (WE). The RD relationships are used for the purpose of predicting annual road
condition and the WE relationships are used for evaluating road works strategies and estimating road
agency resource needs for road preservation and development. Thus, the relationships link standards
and costs for road construction and maintenance to road user costs through road user cost models.
The calibration of RD and WE models will ensure that the true deterioration of the pavements are
appreciated and that any modification to the HDM-4 source codes can be carried out, to predict the
effect of both past works and new works on the future condition of the road infrastructure.
To calibrate the Road Deterioration and Works Effects models (RDWE), will require complete data sets
on the different pavement types from different climate zones. For road deterioration, this will include
both cross-sectional and time-series data. Pavement data should cover all the surface classes in use in
Nigeria (bituminous, unsealed and concrete), as well as the different pavement types within each class
(e.g. for bituminous pavements: asphalt mix on granular base, surface treatment on granular base,
asphalt mix on stabilised base, etc.).
In terms of road works effects, data will be required on the immediate effects of maintenance treatments,
unit costs, and unit rates of energy use, for each of the various works activities applicable in Nigeria. As
some of these data will vary from one region to another (e.g. unit costs), the calibration and adaptation
exercise should reflect this.
The calibration of RDWE should be divided into the following groups of tasks:
Adaptation of data mapping of pavement types, strength measures, condition measures, and
roadworks activities to those used by HDM-4.
Calibration of road deterioration models for bituminous, rigid concrete pavements and unsealed
roads.
Calibration of road works effects models for bituminous, rigid concrete pavements and unsealed
roads.
Definition of unit costs of road works.
83
The calibration should be focused on the roughness deterioration, but should not be limited to
roughness, because roughness is the key road condition indicator for an economic evaluation.
The Consultant shall recommend any additional monitoring of pavement performance and collection of
data that may be required to refine the calibration of HDM-4 models for Nigeria.
Traffic
Traffic impacts all the other models in HDM-4 and in particular the Road User Effects (RUE) and Road
Deterioration and Works Effects (RDWE) models. The results of economic analyses are quite sensitive
to traffic data, and most benefits that justify road improvements arise from savings in road user costs.
To perform economic analyses in HDM-4, traffic characteristics of roads therefore need to be described
and represented at an appropriate level of detail. Traffic volume is a Class I parameter for the RDWE
model and annual loading a Class II parameter. Speed and vehicle damage parameters are Class II and
III parameters for the RUE model
The calibration of the HDM-4 traffic models will involve collection of data which reflect the different traffic
situations (e.g. urban, rural, inter-urban and seasonal), and different road types (e.g. four-lane, two-lane,
single-lane). Both motorised transport (MT) and nonmotorised transport (NMT) from different regions of
Nigeria will be considered in the study. Data will also be collected on the accident rates occurring on
the various classes of roads and junctions on the Federal road network.
The tasks for the calibration of traffic relationships have been grouped under the following:
Prediction of total annual traffic volumes, traffic composition, and growth rate
Vehicle mass and axle loading to determine vehicle damage (to pavement) factor
Vehicle free speeds prediction for the different road surface classes
Speed-Flow relationships (capacity restraint model) for different road types
Traffic flow pattern (hourly distribution of traffic volume) for different categories of road use
Accident rates - categorised in severity levels: fatal, injury, and damage only for different road types.
The Road User Effects Model
Road user effects comprises vehicle operating costs and travel time costs for both motorised and non-
motorised transport, road safety, and environmental effects such as pollution caused by exhaust
emissions and traffic noise.
The calibration of the RUE models will ensure that the predicted magnitude of each VOC component
and the relativity between the different components conform to that observed in Nigeria. This will require
the collection of vehicle fleet data (including non-motorised transport) from different regions of Nigeria.
The RUE model predicts vehicle operating resources as functions of the characteristics of each type of
vehicle and the geometry, surface type and current condition of the road, under both free flow and
congested traffic conditions. The operating costs are obtained by multiplying the predicted quantities for
the various resource components by the unit costs or prices, which are specified by the user in economic
terms.
The tasks for the calibration of RUE relationships have been grouped as given as follows:
Representative vehicles - A detailed definition of representative vehicles, both MT and NMT is

required.
84
Vehicle resources - the following components of vehicle resources are considered, and each has
its separate model: fuel and lubricating oil consumption, tyre wear, vehicle utilization, parts
consumption, maintenance labour hours, capital costs (depreciation and interest), crew hours, and
overheads.
Unit costs of vehicle resources in financial and economic terms
Travel time - considered in terms of passenger-hours during working and non-working time, and
cargo holding hours.
Accident costs for the different severity levels: fatal, injury, and damage only.
Vehicle basic characteristics and key calibration parameters (for example: annual utilization, hours
driven, service life, number of passengers, power, aerodynamic coefficients, fuel consumption, etc.)
The impact elasticity of RUE parameters is set out in Table 4.2, Chapter 4, Volume 5 of HDM-4
documentation series (Bennett and Paterson, 2000). The most sensitive Class I RUE parameter is the
new vehicle price, which affects the depreciation, interest and parts consumption models. The parts
consumption model itself is also very sensitive. Priority will, therefore, be given to the calibration of the
depreciation and parts consumption models. Most of the Class II parameters affect the depreciation and
speed models.
A procedure will be recommended for the regular updating of the vehicle fleet characteristics. This will
include the identification of the minimum annual data set required to achieve this purpose.
Other Parameters
There are other general parameters apart from the models that need to be configured to local conditions
for the correct application of HDM-4. These include climate zones, road network aggregate data, look-
up table for missing data, unit costs of road works, traffic growth sets and economic parameters.
Climate Zones
The climate in which a road is situated has a significant impact on the rate at which the road deteriorates
and on vehicle movement. Important climatic factors are related to temperature and precipitation. The
principal climatic data that is used to model the deterioration of the different categories of roads
considered in HDM-4 is described in section 4.1, Part C1 Volume 4 of HDM-4 documentation series
(Odoki and Kerali, 2000).
HDM-4 requires the climate parameters to be specified for each distinct climate zone within a country.
It is currently envisaged that there would be a minimum of six zones: North-East (NE), North-West (NW),
North-Central (NC), South-West (SW), South-East (SE) and SouthSouth (SS).
Road Network Aggregate Data
HDM-4 requires the calibration of eight Road Network Aggregate Parameter Tables. These
contain default data values for use in appraisal when more detailed survey data is not
available. These parameters are:
AADT
Geometry
Compaction Quality
Roughness
85
Pavement Strength
Bituminous Layers
Surface Distresses
Surface Texture
Data is divided into a number of classes such as low, medium or high traffic volumes. For road geometry
five classes are used to summarise average geometry from a generally level and straight road to a
winding severely undulating road. The number of classes can be varied and should be defined by the
consultants, who will also characterize numerically each class.
Look-up Table
This consists basically of a list of representative road sections with all the data requirements completed
and used as defaults. The missing data for a given road section will assume the default values of a
representative section onto which it is mapped.
The consultants will also create a matrix of representative road classes and will estimate the breakdown
of the Nigerian road network length considering these road classes. This matrix of road classes could
then be used for a network strategic analysis with HDM-4.
Economic Parameters
The economic parameters that need to be defined are:
Discount rate
Analysis period
Appropriate base case alternatives
Salvage value of road
The choice of discount rate and analysis period will be agreed with the RSDT and the relevant funding
institutions. A discount rate of 8 - 12 per cent and an analysis period of 20 years have generally been
used to date in road appraisals. A method to estimate the salvage value of road works at the end of the
analysis period will also be defined. This is most important with new road construction.
86
APPENDIX B: HDM-4 ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK
87
HDM-4 Analytical Framework
The basic unit of analysis in HDM-4 is the homogeneous road section. Several investment
options can be assigned to a road section for analysis. The vehicle types that use the road
must also be defined together with the traffic volume specified in terms of the annual average
daily traffic (AADT).
The analytical framework of HDM-4 is based on the concept of pavement life cycle analysis,
which is typically 15 to 40 years depending on the pavement type. This is applied to predict
road deterioration (RD), road works effects (WE), road user effects (RUE), and socio-economic
and environmental effects (SEE) (Odoki and Kerali, 2000). The underlying operation of HDM-
4 is common for the project, programme or strategy applications. In each case, HDM-4 predicts
the life cycle pavement performance and the resulting user costs under specified maintenance
and/or road improvement scenarios. The agency and user costs (i.e. RAC and RUC,
respectively) are determined by first predicting physical quantities of resource consumption
and then multiplying these by the corresponding unit costs.
Two or more options comprising different road maintenance and/or improvement works should
be specified for each candidate road section with one option designated as the base case
(usually representing minimal routine maintenance). The benefits derived from implementation
of other options are calculated over a specified analysis period by comparing the predicted
economic cost streams in each year against that for the respective year of the base case
option. The discounted total economic cost difference is defined as the net present value
(NPV). The average life cycle riding quality measured in terms of the international roughness
index (IRI) is also calculated for each option.
The overall logic sequence for economic analysis and optimisation is illustrated in Figure B1.
This figure shows the following (Odoki and Kerali, 2000):
The outer analysis loop - enables economic comparisons to be made for each pair of
investment options, using the effects and costs calculated over the analysis period for each
option, and it allows for variations in generated and diverted traffic levels depending on the
investment option considered.
Effects, costs and asset values - how annual effects and costs to the road agency and to the
road users, and asset values are calculated for individual road section options.
Optimisation procedures and budget scenario analysis - these are performed after economic
benefits of all the section options have been determined.
Multiple criteria analysis - provides a means of comparing investment options using criteria
that cannot easily be assigned an economic cost. Note that this capability has not been used
in the present study.
88
Figure B1: Analytical Framework Input data requirements
89
The main data sets required as inputs for HDM-4 analyses are categorised as follows (Kerali
et al., 2000):
Road network data comprising: inventory, geometry, pavement type, pavement strength, and
road condition defined by different distress modes;
Vehicle fleet data including vehicle physical and loading characteristics, utilisation and service
life, performance characteristics such as driving power and braking power, and unit costs of
vehicle resources;
Traffic data including details of composition, volumes and growth rates, speed-flow types and
hourly traffic flow pattern on each road section;
Road works data comprising historical records of works performed on different road sections,
a range of road maintenance activities practised in the country and their associated unit costs.
Economic analysis parameters including time values, discount rate and base year.
Predicting road deterioration
Road pavements deteriorate as a consequence of several factors, most notably: traffic volume
and loading, pavement design, material types, construction quality, environmental weathering,
effect of inadequate drainage systems, and works on utilities. The HDM RD models are
deterministic models which were developed using a structured-empirical approach (Paterson,
1987). This combines the advantage of both theoretical and experimental bases of
mechanistic models with the behaviour observed in empirical studies. The type of model used
for predictive purposes are incremental recursive and this gives the annual change in road
condition from an initial state as a function of the independent variables.
Road deterioration is modelled in terms of cracking, ravelling, potholes, edge-break, rutting,

roughness, friction and drainage. Roughness draws together the impacts of all other pavement
distresses and maintenance. It is the dominant criterion of pavement performance in relation
to both economics and quality of service as it gives most concern to road users. For each
pavement type and each distress type there is a generic model which describes how the
pavement deteriorates. To take account of the different behaviour of a particular pavement
type constructed with different materials, the coefficients of the generic model depend on the
different combinations of the materials. After maintenance treatments the generic pavement
type can change.
Choice and effects of maintenance actions
Standards refer to the levels of conditions and response that a road administration aims to
achieve in relation to functional characteristics of the road network system. The choice of an
appropriate standard is based on the road surface class, the characteristics of traffic on the
road section, and the general operational practice in the study area based upon engineering,
economic and environmental considerations. In HDM-4, a standard is defined by a set of works
activities with definite intervention criteria to determine when to carry them out. In general
terms, intervention levels define the minimum level of service that is allowed. Road agency
resource needs for road maintenance are expressed in terms of the physical quantities and
the monetary costs of works to be undertaken. The annual costs to road agency incurred in
the implementation of road works are calculated in economic and/or financial terms depending
on the type of analysis being performed. The cost of each works activity is considered under
the corresponding user-specified budget category (capital, revenue or special).
90
When a works activity is performed, the immediate effects on road characteristics and road
use need to be specified in terms of the following: pavement strength, pavement condition,
pavement history, road use patterns, and asset value. The long-term effects of a works
operation are considered through the relevant models, for example: rate of road deterioration,
changes in road user costs, changes in energy use and environmental impacts. Thus, both
the immediate and long-term effects are combined to determine the benefits of carrying out
different sets of roadworks activities at different times over the analysis period.
Predicting road user effects
The impacts of the road condition, road design standards, and traffic levels on road users are
measured in terms of road user costs, and other social and environmental effects. Road user
costs comprise vehicle operation costs (fuel consumption, tyre wear, oil, spare parts,
depreciation, interest, crew hours and overheads), costs of travel time - for both passengers
and cargo holding, and costs to the economy of road accidents (i.e., loss of life, injury to road
users, damage to vehicles and other roadside objects). The social and environmental effects
modelled in HDM-4 comprise vehicle emissions and energy consumption (Odoki and Kerali,
2000).
Motorised vehicle speeds and operating resources are determined as functions of the
characteristics of each type of vehicle and the geometry, surface type and current condition of
the road, under both free flow and congested traffic conditions. The operating costs are
obtained by multiplying the various resource quantities by the unit costs or prices. Thus, the
annual road user costs are calculated for each vehicle type, for each traffic flow period and for
each road section alternative.
Optimisation
The NPV computed for the different section alternatives are used by the optimisation process
to select the best alternative for each road section subject to the budget constraints not being
exceeded. The optimisation problem therefore becomes one of searching for the combination
of road investment alternatives that optimises the objective function (e.g. maximisation of
economic benefits) under a budget constraint. The set of investment alternatives to be
optimised is user-defined in such a way that they result in a different selection of treatments
and it is not the set of all possible options for the network.
91
APPENDIX C: MINUTES OF NEGOTIATION MEETING
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APPENDIX 1: OBSERVED, CALIBRATED AND DEFAULT DETERIORATION PLOTS
APPENDIX D: OBSERVED, CALIBRATED AND DEFAULT

DETERIORATION PLOTS
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HDM-4 VOC Configuration For Nigeria

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Government of the Federal Republic of Nigeria

Road Sector Development Team

Configuration and Calibration of HDM-4 to

Draft Final Report

Infrastructure Management Integrated Engineering

TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................................. i

6.3 Side Friction ................................................................................................................... 56

ACCRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

AADT Annual Average Daily Traffic

Table 1.1: Project Scope ...................................................................................................... 2

Figure 2.1: Study Methodology ............................................................................................ 7

Application of the model thus involves two important steps:

1.2 Project Aim and Objectives

1.3 Project Scope

Table 1.1: Project Scope

Inception, reviews and consultations including: review of

Field surveys as necessary including: pavement performance

HDM-4 configuration including: representative vehicles, climate

4 HDM-4 road deterioration model calibration Completed

5 HDM-4 works effects model calibration Completed

HDM-4 road user effects calibration including speed prediction

HDM-4 Customisation including: economic parameters, lookup

Table 1.2: New vs Initial Schedule of Deliverables

Interim Report 4 23rd October 2013 Submitted

Draft Final Report 7 17th December 2013 This report

Final Report 9 28th January 2014 Programmed

1.4 The Study Team

1.4.1 Consultants Team

Table 1.3: Consultants Team

Study approach and methodology,

Road user effects models and

Road deterioration and works effects

Environmental Vehicle data and exhaust emissions

Traffic / Road Safety

Data collection, traffic and economic

1.4.2 Counterpart Staff

The counterpart staff assigned to this project is listed in Table 1.4.

1. Chike Ngwuocha Project Manager, Road Sector Development Team

1.5 Purpose and Structure of the Report

2 OVERALL STUDY METHODOLOGY

HDM-4 configuration involved a number of activities that included the following:

Provision of information on the climatic conditions prevailing in Nigeria, different road

Verification: Requires measurement of additional inputs and moderate field surveys to

Adaptation: Experimental data collection required to monitor the long-term performance

2.4 Approach and Methodology

Phase 1 Inception, reviews and consultations;

Figure 2.1: Study Methodology

2.5 Stakeholder and Consultations

Road Sector Development Team (RSDT) Traffic data

Table 2.1: List of key stakeholder consulted

2.6 Main Assumptions

Source: Bennett and Paterson (2000)

HIGH LEVEL DATA

LOW LEVEL DATA

Figure 2.3: Concept of Information Quality Level

3 FIELD SURVEYS, DATA COLLECTION AND PROCESSING

3.1 Vehicle Fleet Characteristics and Unit Costs

3.1.1 Representative Vehicles

Class Vehicle Category

14 Articulated Truck (divided into 4 sub-categories)

These representative vehicles are elaborated in Table 3.1.

Table 3.1: Vehicle Categories

2 Small Car 998