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Before setting out the plan of the book, it is useful to review the role of
expectations in macroeconomics for two reasons first, in order to pre-emp t the
criticism that expectations formation is a peripheral issue which is not central
to macro- economics as wc know it secondly, to introduce tbe idea that many
of the standard controversies in macroeconomics depend, at least in part, 6n
differences in the implicit'assump- tion about how expectations are formed.
_at___th Bmpks! level do. Economists_maintain the C. Tion_. Jhat decisions
may be modelled within the cpntext of mMuim_period. Typically, decisibn
makers'preferences extend over a lonser horizon they care about. ihe future, In
an economy without any stores of value, there might be no way in which
individuaBs, by their curTent choices, could affect the opportunities available in
subsequent peribds however, the existence of assets allows individuals to
break the period by peiiod equality of flow income and flow expenditure. They.
can save or dissave, thus altering the timins of expenditure and reyenue across
periods. Given a cbmpiete set of forward'mukets, individuals could currently
make contracts for all future transactions at prices asreed, and therefore
known, in the current period. In such a world there would be no need to form
views about the future. In practice, imperfect and costly information gives rise
to trans- actions costs and uncertainty which severely restrict the number of
forward markets in operation. It is then essential ab out. W_to make_sensible
intertemporal Since current decisions by individuals d$Ren d.. on their mrrent
evaluation of thc future, such coinsiddations must temporal decision'of
consumers'such as thc Permanent Income Hypothesis C = C( Yp ) which r Es_W
Tent.-coq sumption to permanent._Income.. h,.._Gn. Apprctprjatc average of.
curTent apd_.. }qplecM.. Hiqe. M Cgmcs., Since expec- tatq. ps.. GLE
qot_irectwbsewable, &. Iheory.. of expectations formation. Is rq . Ed. n_make.
operational this last and most sophisticated version o f the coinsumption--
iliction. h-&e nt chapter, I HrilL._aJgye tha! mnes($. } a ptd_e device_.
9f_tre!ing._E?Ptato. Ns.. As e? ogeq. ous_and therefqe inde. p. endent__. Qf..
curTent variabeL. h the short ruu_with exp t $.... HW.! _inc6mes....
Held._ExogeqouM= constanLb). assump tion, VariatioL. in current._$ncome $s...
post iw)urtay_ source__gf_vMation in pemanent incon. c0., whicK averages
current and future incomes. This illustration. Makes two points.-First, even.
Theories which seem to deal only hi current variable such as the assertion
that current. consump- tion deR. ends chiefly. Ion current income, usually have
an implicit assumption about expectations. In my judgment, that is'a more
charitable interpretation than one which asserts that the theories have
positively denied that decisiqns are ever intertemporal. Secondly) when faced
with conflictins theories, it is important to consider whether the differenc es
are to be sought and understood'chiefli in the differing expectations
assumptions adopted.' Many other exiunples may be cited of the need io
investi- gate the issue of expectations : in macroeconomics. Let me brieHy
mentiion'two. When wage contracts are set in'nominal temas, but firms and
workers, having no money illusion, care only about real wa8es, it will be
necessary for waBe bargainers to form views about the likely inflation rate over
the duration of the contrac in order to assess the expected real value of the
nominal settement. No dscussion of the Phillips Curve or related issues can
avoid this. Similarly, when rates of return n asset markets, whether for equities,
bonds, or foreign exchange, depend in pmt on uncertain capital gains over the.
Holding period, it will be necessary to model expectations formation if these
markets are to be understood. In short, it is impossible to provide a sensible
treatment of macroeconomic theory without resort to some model of
expectations formation. Sometimes this model is only implicit. It is better that
the expectations assumption should be made explicit, even where it is almost
embarrassingly simple. Not only does this avoid confusion and place the model
clearly within a more general framework, it may also prevent inconsistency. If
macroeconomics is thc study of interdependent or simultaneous systems of
relations, it cannot be satisfactory to treat expectations fomration in an ad hoc
manner which may vary from equation to equation.
Economic theories should be confronted with economic data. A large part of the
ensuing discussion is concerned with emp irical work in macroeconomics.
Econometricians consider how the theory of mathematical statistics can'be
used to provide rigorous criteria for the analysis of economic data. This analysis
may. Be divided into four areas quantification, testing, prediction, and policy
evaluation. The purpose of this section is not merely to introduce these concep
ts to readers who are not familiar with econometrics, but also to argue that the
issue of expectations formation is as important for. Empirical macroeconomics
as it is for theoretical macroeconomics. Some economists are'reluctant to
place any weisht on the results of econometric anarysis, believins that
mathematical precision offers a misleading account of the complex world. in
which we live. I believe this view to be Msconceived. Suppose we have a simple
theory, for example that consumption C depends linearly on income Y. We write
where b and c are constants and u is a ramdom disturbance
whose average value is zero. By rewriting ths equation as it becomes apparent
that u is simply thc extent to which our simple model (b + cY) fails to provide
aJl exact description yf actual consump tion. While it would be ufireasonab le to
assert that consumption is exactly explained by the mode C = b + cY, no su ch
charge can be levelled agzinst the random or stochastic formuiation, for its
point of cleparture is thc recowition that the theory, by siriJplifying, igftores
some influences on actual consumption. The term u will only bc truly random,
in the sense of being completely unpredictable, if the underlying theory or
modei correctly captures all. The. systematic influences on consumption. If tl
includes important systematic influences which. The theory has omitted,_such
as the effects of wealth or expected future incomes, the behaviour of zl will not
be purely random. For e x am 1 :,'if wealth and expected future incomes are
trending upwards over time, u will trend upwards also. Econometrics uses
mathematical statistics to model the behaviour of thc random term u. At the
very least, this will provide two kinds of information. First, we will be able to
measure the relative importance of thc systematic terms (b + c Y) embodying
the content of the economic theory against that of the random term u which
reflects the state of our-ignorance about remaining influences on consump tion.
Thus, we can derive some measure of the confidence we should place in our
economic theory. Secondly, by exilmin- ing the behaviour of the disturbance
term u over time, we may be able to'diagnose the presence of other influences
and infer how our theory sh ould be amended. Far from implying a false
precision, econometrics becomes an indis- pensable tool in a-complex world in
which economic thory can provide only rules. of thumb. Thus in late chapters
examine empirical econometric evidence on macroeconomic models with
Rational. Expectations. To introduce the most irnportant ideas, I continue to
work with the example of the consumption function. The first problem facing an
econometrician is Model Selection, the specification of the systematic i1nd
random components of the relation. Economic theory may indicate
the'variables on which consumption depends, but it rarely provides strong
justification for a particular functional rrm. I.quation (1. 3. 1) represents one
particular model selection in which Lhc syste- matic part (b + c Y) is linear in
current income. No other variables are included, nor is a non-linear functional
form, such as C = log Y, ad op ted. Typically, thc chosen rhnctional form will be
simple, but compatible wi th the a przori rcstric- tions implied by the theory
or'by previous empirical work. The se cond-problem is Estimation, use of the
data to determine particular values for the unknown constants b and c.
Estimation theory provides criteria for choosing values for these parameters
so that the resulting'equation best fits the actual data at. Hand. Estimation is
especially imp ortant in macroeconomics because a complete m6del of the
economy . will usually encompass different effects operating in different
directions, so that theory aloine cannot predict the outcome indirect effects
may outweigh direct effects and it is essential to know the relevant
magnitudes. The next problem is. To Test the economic theory em- bodied in
the systematic part of the equation. Suppose, for example, we wish to test the
hypothesis that e quation (1. 3. 1) is the correct model of consumption against
the alternative hypothesis that consumption depends not only on income but
also on current wealth. Thus, the more general hypothesis might be specified
as where d is another constant. And W denotes real wealth. Econometric
testing proceeds as follows. First, estimate the more general. Model, here
equation ( 1. 3. 2). Having selected values of b, c, and d to best fit the data,
examine whether the estimated e of the constant d is sufficiently close to zero
that we may ignore the influence of wealth on consumption as equation (1. 3.
1) asserts. The theory of statistical inference provides criteria for decidins how
close to zero the estimated value of d must be befre. we may concede : that
wealth may legitimately be ignored. The most Widely. Developed, and most
widely used, et of statistical critria for testing econo- mic hypotheses takes the
above form specif y anti estimate a more generaj model than the economic
theory ass'erts and examine whether the additioLJal variables are redundant. lr
wc conclude that the data do indeed support equation (1. 3. 1 ), we may then
proceed Lo usc the cstjmatcd equatios for Forecasti?zg. Let b * and c+ be the
estimated values of the constants over our. sample period. Assume also that
we have confirmed that the residuals (C-b'-c* Y) zrc zero on average and
display n6 trend. We might then predict next period's consumption C+i by first
gL'icssing the value of next period's incoine Y+1, then using our estimated
equation to predict consumption as b* + c+ Y+r. There are. Three. Reasons
why such a forecast of consumption may prove inaccurate. First, since thc basic
equation (1. 3. 1) contains a genuinely rand6m term, even a successful theory
wiH not predict consumption exactly it'is only a simplification. Secondly,
we'may have failed to guess correctly the future value of income. Finally,-'we
may have failed to estimate the syste matic part of the consumption function
correctly equation v.-. L/ has Omitted an important variable and we have
failed to detect this at the testing stage, or the econo- metric procedures used
to estimate b and c have been inappro- priate, leading to incorrect estimates of
these. parameters. Only in the third of these hstances can it be said that the
empirical econometrics is deficient. On many occasions, forecasting errors
will-arise because. of one of the first two reasons and we must simply conclude
that wc have done the best we can in a world which is characterised by
considerable uncertainty. As Mentio. Ned earlier, we may use an es. Timated
model for Policy Eualuation. First, we may use. The model to predict what will
occur if present policies are maintained unchanged, then we may alter the
future path of one : of the variables under govemmen t control and simulate
the new prediction for the path of the economy. By co'mparing the two paths,
we can quantify the effects of the proposed policy change, thus allowing a
more infonned discussion about the desira- bility of adopting a different policy.
Havin8 introduced the main themes of econometric research, we can now
contemplate. The role of expectations formation in rrpihcal macro
conorrLics. CoLrsidcr first tht specification of the model to bc estimated.
ClettTly, if th( economic theory explicitly addresses thc issue o I'expectation
formation, the corTesponding empircal work can do no less However, when
expectations formation is only implicit ir the economic theory, the problem is
more subtle. It may b( convenient to develop'theoretical models in which it I
assumed that expectations are constant in the short run. Sncf, models provide
useful insights into short-run behaviour, However, if one wishes to apply these
theories to actual datz over tiime, it cannot be maintained that expectations
were necessarily invariant over some long period. Because il requires a larse
num ber of data points to obtain estimates ol uriknown parameters, empirical
economists cannot duck th issue of expectations formation even when the
theorist can, In this sense, the requirement for a coherent theory ol
expectations formation is even more important in empirical macroeconomics
Consider next the problem ot estimating a model m which expectations
formation is recognised. Individuals'expec- tations are unobservable and can be
treated only by postu- latins a model relating these unob servable expectations
to variables which can be observed and for which data exists. It is sometimes
asserted that su Tvey data. on expectations could be used, rendering
expectations immediately observ- able. We should simply ask individuals what
they expect and record this informatibn. However, if we wish to forecast some
way into the fu ture, we cannot now ask individuals what at some future date
they will be expecting for a yet later date. Rather we have to mdel the process
by which expectations are formed, forecast the variables on which these
expectations depend, and hence derive a forecast of what expectations will be.
Nor wo uld suTvey data provide a reliable guide to policy evaluation in which
we should have to collect data on what individuals wo uld expect in some
hypothetical situation ab out which they may not have thought very carefully.
For these reasons, most econo- mists believe it is pre'iEerable. To attempt to
model the process of etcp ectations formation. And estimate its unknown
parameters. Thidly, consider thc probem ol testing an economic model.
Precisely because the spccificaiion inclucics both a hypothesis abo1jt the
underly ing framework', for example that consumption depends on pei-1rlanent
income, and a hypothesis about the process by which expectations are lormcd,
ii is hard to separate these distinct aspects of'the model. If we are confident
that expectations formation has been correctly cap Lured, we can use the data
on aggregate behaviour to test whether the economic theory about the
underlying structure is correct. However, this requires us to place
considerable faith the : n in 1 postulated modei of expectations formation and
further underiines the importance of this issue in empirical macroeconomics.
Finally, consider the problem of pohcy evaluati on in which. a hypothetical.
policy change alters the evolution of the economy. Whatever expectations were
previously assumed ar e now likely to be inappropriate. Unless individuals were
comp letely and permanentiy misled, they would surely revise their
expectations if a new policy were adopted. For example, extrapolating the past.
May be a reasonable rule of thumb while p olicy is maintained unchanged ; it
would be com- pletely inappropriate if a radically. Different policy were ab out
to be introduced. Policy evaluation will be worthless unless it captures the
dependence of expectations formation on the policy in force.