Feed use estimation: Data, Methodologies and Gaps

Indonesia

Budi Tangendjaja
Indonesian Research Institute for Animal Production, PO Box 221 Bogor 16002

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Table of contents

List of acronyms .................................................................................................................................................... 3

Executive Summary............................................................................................................................................... 4
1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 6
2. Data and Methodologies................................................................................................................................... 7
2.1. Official Data .............................................................................................................................................. 7
2.2. Unofficial data ........................................................................................................................................... 7
3. Growth and Structural Change in Livestock and Aquaculture Sector ......................................................... 11
3.1. Trends in livestock sector......................................................................................................................... 11
3.2. The evolving systems of livestock production systems ........................................................................... 13
3.3. Evolution of livestock farm sizes ............................................................................................................. 16
3.4. Efficiency of feed utilization.................................................................................................................... 16
3.5. The aquaculture sector: trends and farm size ........................................................................................... 18
3.6. Efficiency of feed utilization in aquaculture production .......................................................................... 19
4. Growth and Structural Change in Feed Sector............................................................................................ 20
4.1. Trends in feed utilization for livestock and aquaculture .......................................................................... 20
4.2. Factors affecting feed utilization.............................................................................................................. 22
4.2.1. Availability of feedstuffs and sources of supply ................................................................................ 22
4.2.2. Feedstuffs: their price and substitutability ....................................................................................... 24
4.2.4. Structural change in feed industries ................................................................................................. 25
4.2.5. Policies .............................................................................................................................................. 26
5. Feed Ingredients Demand Estimation ......................................................................................................... 27
6. Data challenges: gaps and inconsistencies ................................................................................................. 29
6.1. Poultry ...................................................................................................................................................... 32
6.3. Feed grains production............................................................................................................................. 32
6.3. Feed demand ............................................................................................................................................ 34
7. Conclusions and Recommendations ........................................................................................................... 35
References........................................................................................................................................................... 38
Annex :List of contacts ........................................................................................................................................ 39
Appendix Tables: 1-14 ......................................................................................................................................... 40

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List of acronyms

Acronym Full name

BPS Badan Pusat Statistik (Central Board of Statistic)

DGLAHS Directorate General of Livestock and Animal Health Services
MFMA Ministry of Fisheries and Marine Affairs
FAS, USDA Foreign Agriculture Services, United States Department Agriculture
FAO Food Agriculture Organization
GPPU Gabungan Pengusaha Perbibitan Unggas (Poultry Breeder Association)
GPMT Gabungan Pengusaha Makanan Ternak (Feedmill Association)
PINSAR Pusat Informasi Pasar (Market Information Center) for Poultry
USSEC US Soybean Export Council
USGC US Grains Council
CIMMYT International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center

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Executive Summary

Indonesian meat production has increased significantly in the last 30 years and major sources of meat come from
poultry, beef, pork while only a small percentage is derived from goat/sheep. After the introduction of modern
broilers in early 1975 and since 1985, poultry meat production surpassed that of beef. According to DGLAHS
statistics, by 2012 poultry meat contributed around 67 percent of total meat supply followed by beef (19%) and
pork (9%). Egg production is also dominated by modern layer operations and production continues to increase in
tandem with growing incomes. In line with meat and egg production, feed production continues to grow at rates
exceeding 10% per year over the last 5 years and by 2012 compound feed production reached 12.3 million ton
with aqua feed production reported at 1.2 million tons. The Indonesian Feedmill Association (GPMT) reported
that compound feed production is divided with 45% of production directly at broiler feed, 44% at layer feed, 9%
at feed for breeders and only 2% going to residual feed requirements for other species.

Data availability on demand and supply of feed and feed ingredients is limited. The Central Bureau of Statistic
(BPS) as an official Government data source does not provide feed ingredient data and the Directorate General of
Livestock and Animal Health (DGLAH) also does not generate feed production data nor estimates on demand
for feed ingredients. However, the BPS provides estimated data of corn production in Indonesia. However, there
is wide gap between corn data estimates generated by BPS and those of USDA as reported by the Foreign
Agriculture Service (FAS). For example, in 2012 BPS estimated corn production was 18.962 TMT while USDA
reported only 8.900 TMT, with a significant difference of 10 million tons. Feed production estimates, however,
are reported, but only unofficially, by Associations such as the Indonesian Feedmill Association (GPMT). Other
associations such as Indonesian Poultry Breeder Association (GPPU) are able to provide estimate on poultry
production, which include figures on broilers, layers and breeders. Both associations are able to provide feed
consumption data based on their estimation. Other organization such as US Grains Council (USGC) and US
Soybean Export Council (USSEC) are also providing estimates on feed production, based on field data
collection activities.

Animal production systems can be divided into intensive, semi intensive and extensive system. Animals raised
under extensive systems would be undertaken by small farmers and fed natural resources available locally.
Animals raised under this system are typically beef cattle, sheep and goats, native chickens and fish culture.
Alternatively, animals raised under intensive systems would be fed formulated rations derived from various
ingredients. These are typically broilers, layers, poultry breeders, pigs raised in modern facilities, beef feed in
feedlots, and selected dairy and aqua operations. Some local chicken and duck are kept under semi intensive
conditions and provided with supplementary feeding. Since the majority of feed grains are transformed into
compound feeds produced by modern feedmills with this feed fed for animals under intensive system,
estimation of feed grain demand should likely be based only a consideration of feed demands by modern poultry
and swine operations. Only small amounts of feed is given as supplementary feeding for local chicken, duck and
local pig.

Compound feed in Indonesia is produced by 57 feed companies. GPMT reported that livestock feed production
in 2010, 2011, 2012 is estimated at 9.7, 11.3 and 12.3 million tons, respectively while aqua feed production,
mainly for freshwater fish, was reported at 1.2 million ton in 2012. Feed companies are privately owned, either
by local companies or multinational companies. Most of feed companies are located in the areas where poultry
productions are located, such as Java and Sumatra, and have now expanded to Kalimantan and South Sulawesi.

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Compound feed produced in modern feedmills is formulated from several feed ingredients derived from energy
and protein sources and supplemented with minerals and vitamins, based on least cost formulation. In Indonesia,
the major ingredient for energy sources is corn with almost no wheat fed to animals except wheat by-products.
Protein sources are soybean meal, animal by-products meal, corn gluten meal, Distillers Dried Grains with
soluables, and rapeseed meal. Additionally, several by- products are included in the ration; these include rice
bran, wheat bran/pollard, copra meal etc. Most of major protein sources are imported while corn imports for feed
in 2010, 2011 and 2012 were 1.55, 3.08 and 1.5 million tons, respectively and Indonesian Feedmill Association
reported corn imports in 2013 reached 3 million tons.

Feed ingredient demand can be estimated using data on animal production and size and structure of herds that
consume feed rather than calculating it residually through supply and demand balance sheets. With regard to
corn use, estimates can be generated based on modern poultry figures (broiler, layer, and breeder), pig numbers
or standing animal populations in particular year. Since no corn has been used in aqua feed and almost no corn is
fed to dairy and beef cattle raise under intensive systems, corn feed use should be calculated only for those
species raised under intensive systems. Information on the amount of rations given to individual per animal or
feed consumed by animal per days are well known for modern systems and can be used to estimate total feed
demand in Indonesia. Poultry industries may use estimated feed conversion ratios, multiplied by body weight, to
predict feed demand per bird. Industries reported that the average body weight of an Indonesian broiler is 1.6 kg
and the feed consumed to reach this body weight is 2.6 kg. In order to estimate the amount of corn included in
a particular ration, a least cost feed formulation exercise, commonly undertaken by feedmills, can be conducted
using current ingredients price. Formulas from each stage of production for each species of animals can be used
to predict demand for each feed ingredient for Indonesia. A simple calculator was developed to estimate each
feed ingredient demand for particular year based on livestock production or population. Using this calculator,
corn feed demand in Indonesia for 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 was estimated at 4,7, 5.4, 5.8 and 7.4 million
tonnes respectively. This approach towards estimating feed use is endorsed by the Directorate General of
Livestock and Animal Health (DGLAH), Indonesian Feedmill Association (GPMT), Indonesian Poultry Breeder
Association (GPPU) and Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) USDA in Indonesia.

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 1. Introduction
Indonesia is the fourth most populous country in the world with 237.6 million people, based on a census
conducted in May 2010, and the population continues to grow at rate of 1.44% per year. In 2013, IMF predicted
that Indonesian population will reach 248 million. Indonesian meat consumption is considered low compared
to other countries; in 2012, meat consumption in Indonesia reached 10 kg per year with 70% of meat
consumption derived from poultry followed by beef, pork and sheep/goat meat. Broiler per capita consumption
in 2012 was estimated at 7.4 kg per capita. Besides meat, major animal proteins consumption is derived from egg
and milk. Egg consumption in 2012 was estimated around 87 pieces per capita while fresh milk consumption
was only 11.95 liter per year. Animal protein consumption continues to grow in line with income growth broiler
meat continues to be the predominant consumption in term of meat.

Animal production system can be divided into intensive, semi intensive system and extensive production
systems. Since most of the extensive and semi intensive systems of animal production are fed on feed naturally
available or small amounts of feed supplementation using by- products, overall feed use would be dominated by
requirements of livestock and aquaculture raised in the intensive system. These types of livestock production
systems would utilize most of feed ingredients available commercially including feed grains. Livestock species
in the intensive system include modern breeds of chicken, swine, beef cattle fed in feedlot and for aquaculture is
dominated by finfish and shrimp. Dairy cattle production is carried out by small holders under semi intensive
system but there are only a limited numbers of large dairy farms operated under intensive system. Most of grain
demand is supplied by modern feedmills, targeted towards poultry operations and feed for aquaculture. Most of
poultry meat production is currently derived from modern broilers and layers operations with little contribution
from local chicken or ducks.

Official data on feed production is very limited with the only official data on feed production reported by
Livestock and Animal Health Statistics (DGLAHS, 2010). The data reported on compound feed estimated
production in 2008 at 8.16 million tons while the capacity of feedmills during that time was 12 million tons and
in 2013 the capacity raised to 14.5 million tons. There is no data on feed production for different species or
ingredients demand in this report. After 2008, no other data on feed production were reported, even in later
edition of Livestock and Animal Health Statistic (2011 or 2012). It seems that important of feed data has been
neglected until few years ago a new Directorate of Feed was created under DGLAHS. There is, however,
unofficial data available from different associations, presented in various seminars or different meetings,
particularly from the Indonesian Feedmill Association (GPMT). In addition several industry associations such as
US Grains Council (USGC) and US Soybean Export Council (USSEC) collect information from industries to
provide estimate on feed production and collect data from custom port to calculate feed ingredients import. Both
association acts as market intelligence units with a mandate to identify opportunities for market development for
agriculture products such as animal feed.
This report presents current patterns of feed consumption in Indonesia, especially grain-use in livestock feed,
and review the methodologies for their calculation. A simple calculator has been developed to predict feed
demand in Indonesia particularly for feed grains; however, the model can be used also to predict the demand for
other ingredients such as oil seed meal, animal protein sources and other by-products commonly used in feeding
different species of animals.

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2. Data and Methodologies
2.1. Official Data
According to official Indonesian Government regulations, only the Central Board of Statistic (BPS) is
recognized as maintaining official data related to indicators on Social and Population, Economic and Trade,
Agriculture and Mining. This central board has the same level of authority as other Ministries under the
Indonesian Cabinet and is situated directly under the President of Republic of Indonesia. The data reported by
Central Board of Statistic http://www.bps.go.id/ covers a wide range of data including those related to
population, gender, labor force, human development, poverty, household expenditure, consumption, health,
housing, politic etc. There is data available on agricultural production which covers different sub sectors such as
food crops, forestry, estate crops, fisheries and animal husbandry. For animal production, limited data is
available from the Central Board of Statistics with more statistics available through reports published by
Directorate General of Livestock and Animal Health Services (DGLAH), Ministry of Agriculture or from their
website http://ditjennak.deptan.go.id/. This DGLAH publishes a statistical book every year that contains
information on investment, animal populations, animal production, animal products consumption, export/
import of animals, trade related to animals and the labor force in animal production. However the data sets
contain little information on feed production and feed ingredients use.

Since the Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries was separated from Ministry of Agriculture, the data on
fisheries is published separately from the Ministry of Agriculture. Statistical data can be accessed from
http://statistik.kkp.go.id/ ; the latest validated data was for 2011 but only published in 2012.

Other official data can be accessed from United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) through
http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/. USDA data contain production supply and demand for major crops such
as corn, rice, wheat, sorghum etc. but doesnt include all feed ingredients. Similarly, the Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) reports official figures on agriculture production for Indonesia (http://faostat.fao.org/ )
especially food crops that may be utilized for animal feeding.

2.2. Unofficial data

Since official data do not provide much information on feed use in Indonesia and the official agency encounters
difficulties in collecting data from stakeholders involved in feeding animals, unofficial data can only be obtained
from several associations in Indonesia such as the Gabungan Perusahaan Perbibitan Unggas (GPPU), the
Indonesian Poultry Breeders Association, the Gabungan Perusahaan Makanan Ternak (GPMT), or the
Indonesian Feedmill Association. GPPU would be able to provide actual production of day old chicks, both
broilers and layers, including parent stock population. This data is collected from their members and is
considered more accurate than the official data. GPMT can provide data on feed production by type of livestock
from the members and derive the expected feed consumed by animals. In addition, GPMT would also have data
on feed use for aqua-culture, very difficult to obtain from government agencies.

Other organization may also collect data that can be useful in the absence of official statistics. US industry
associations such as the US Soybean Export Council (USSEC) have been active in Indonesia for more than 25
years to promote soybean products for animal feed. They have been collecting information from industry
contacts and from other stakeholders related to animal production and feed ingredients in the country. The data
on ingredients imports by Indonesia are also useful information in determining feed use. In addition to USSEC,
similar organizations such as the US Grains Council (USGC) have also been active in the region and are able to

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collect and monitor information on grain supply and demand in Indonesia, usually through contacts with
industries. Although the data is unofficial, it is considered more accurate than those reported by official statistics
because of the ability of these organizations to cross check data with other industries or derive it from field data.
For example, when broiler feed demand is reported by the association, the accuracy can be cross checked
through reviewing imports of soybean meal. USSEC has up-to-date data on imported soybean meal based on
different shipments to Indonesia throughout the year. Indonesia does not have crushing plant to produce soybean
meal, therefore all soybean meals required to feed animals are imported.

All data relevant to the estimation of feed demand and currently available in Indonesia is collected both from
official and unofficial data and is summarized in Table 1.

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Table 1: Data sources related to livestock and aquaculture production and feed sectors in Indonesia

Indicator Source Nature of Availability Major problems

data
Agriculture Production. Central Board of Official Annually published in Data is available, with a 1-2
Related to feed only Corn, Statistic (BPS) the Statistical Yearbook years delay. The latest book is
Rice, Soybean, Cassava, of Indonesia and on web 2013 with data from 2012 and
Livestock and Fisheries http://www.bps.go.id/ for fisheries from 2011. Only
production and population data
available
Livestock population and Directorate Official Annually published in The latest book was published
production by province General of Livestock and Animal in 2012 and data was
Livestock and
Health Statistic and on calculated. Only total
Animal Health
web population for each species
Services
http://ditjennak.deptan.go.id/ and production. Little data on
(DGLAH)
feed.
Fisheries production Center of Data Official Annually published on Latest book is from 2012 with
Statistics and Marine and Fisheries data reported up to 2011.
Information, Statistic and on web Production by species and
Ministry of http://statistik.kkp.go.id/ province; no feed data.
Fisheries and
Marine Affairs
Production Supply and Foreign Official Available on line Data is collected through
Demand on grains and Agriculture http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdo Agric. Attach with feed
nline/ and occasionally
other products Service, USDA demand estimated.
GAINS report for
specific subject
Agriculture production by FAO Official On line FAOSTAT Data adapted from
countries for corn, http://faostat.fao.org/ Government Statistic

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cassava, rice, soybean etc
Data on day old chick Indonesian Unofficial Data collected from Data still estimated but they
production and poultry Poultry members but also are considered best available
population Breeders estimate based on field estimates for chicken
Association data. Prediction for the production.
(GPPU) following year. Data is
presented in special
event such as seminar or
meeting.
Feed production Indonesian Unofficial Data collected from Yearly or semi-annual data on
especially poultry and Feedmill members monthly but feed production for broiler,
aqua Association also estimate based on layer, breeder and fish and
field data. Prediction for shrimp. Best estimates for
the following year. Data compound feed production
is presented in special
event such as seminar or
meeting.
Data on price of poultry Indonesian Unofficial Daily Reports on price of No systematic data collection
but occasionally on Center for poultry from members for poultry farmers
farmers Market
Information
Data on feed companies US Soybean Unofficial Data is collected every Some data is estimated. But
production and import of Export Council month for imported these are considered the best
major feed ingredients and US Grains ingredients and estimate estimate for ingredients
Council for feed production. It imports.
was cross-checked with
industries contact.
Available on request

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3. Growth and Structural Change in Livestock and Aquaculture Sector

In order to understand feed ingredients demand in Indonesia, it is important to understand developments in the
livestock and aquaculture sector as the feed demand is linked to animal production and their feed requirements.
Growth of modern animal production operations, including aquaculture, are considered as the major driver in
feed production and feed ingredients demand.

3.1. Trends in livestock sector

Trends in meat production over the last 43 years are presented in Figure 1. In the early 1970s, beef was the main
meat source in Indonesia, however, with the introduction of modern poultry systems, both for broiler and eggs in
the 1970s, poultry meat production increased significantly. By 2012, poultry meat production reached 1.8
million tons while beef production was only 600 thousand tons.

2000

1800

1600
y = 39.077x - 77160
1400 R = 0.9265

1200
TMT

1000

800

600 y = 7.3835x - 14396

R = 0.8834
400

200
y = 4.655x - 9137.7
0 R = 0.885
1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009

Beef/Buffalo Poultry Pork

Figure 1. Meat production trends in Indonesia 1969-2012

Source: DGLAH (1970-2012) Indonesian Livestock Statistic

Significant decreases in poultry meat production were reported in 1998 in response to the Asian economic crisis
in the late 1997, however, meat production recovered over the 5 years following the crisis. Pork production
(around 200 thousand tons) is much less than poultry but it continues to grow. Pork consumption is much less
than poultry due to religious reasons and, over the last decade, very little support has been provided to the swine
sector in Indonesia. Although beef production is still increasing, beef contribution to the total meat supply
continues to decrease so that in 2012, beef contribution is only 19% of total meat production.

In 2012, two-thirds of meat production came from the poultry sector (Figure 2). Besides broilers, poultry meat

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also comes from native chicken (10%), layer (3%) and duck (1%). It is interesting to note that meat from layer
chicken contributes only 3% of total meat production. Indonesia poultry farmers often raise male layer as source
of meat. There are niche markets for local chicken but the cost of production of local chicken is more expensive
compared to raising male layers; in addition, the taste of male layer meat similar to that of local chicken. In many
countries, day old male chicks (for layers) would be disposed in rendering plants, but Indonesia is unusual with
male layers raised to produce meat and the price of this meat is more expensive than that of broilers.

Others
Duck (Horse+Rabbiit+qu
1% ail+peagon)
0%
Buffalo
Beef Cattle 1%
19%
Goat+sheep
4%

Pig
Broiler
9%
53%
Native Chicken
10%

Layer
3%

Figure 2. Meat contribution from different species of animals in 2012

Source: Hutasuhut et al., 2013

Similar to broiler production, egg production also increased significantly after introduction of modern laying
systems in the early 1970s. Before 1970, egg production was dominated by eggs from local chicken and ducks
but after 1980, egg production was dominated by a leghorn, or modern variety of bird. Figure 4 shows that egg
production from modern layer contributes 69% of total egg production while egg from duck and local chicken
contributes only 18 and 13%, respectively.

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 1200

1000
y = 23.869x - 47138
800 R = 0.9073
TMT

600

400
y = 5.1468x - 10124
R = 0.9484
200
y = 4.3647x - 8586.5
0 R = 0.925
1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009

Native Layer Duck

Figure 3. Trends in egg production in Indonesia, 1969-2012.

Source: DGLAH (1970-2012) Indonesian Livestock Statistic

Initially in modern layer systems, white layers were introduced to produce white eggs but after the 1980s,
consumer preference shifted to brown eggs and now all eggs for human consumption are derived from brown
layers. Similarly to the broiler industry, a significant drop was also noticed in egg production in 1998, again
related to the Asian economic crisis, with production recovering only 6 years after the crisis. Although eggs
derived from local chicken and local duck continue to increase, their contribution to the total egg production is
relatively smaller than modern layer systems.

3.2. The evolving systems of livestock production systems

Livestock production systems have changed from extensive to more intensive systems. This is particularly true
for modern species such as poultry, swine and dairy and also for beef cattle raised in feedlot systems. Other
species of animals such as beef cattle, sheep/goat, native chicken, local ducks and local pigs are raised under
extensive or semi intensive system with very little compound feed provided. Within intensive systems, the
majority of feed is compound feed manufactured by feedmills. Since feed grains, in particular corn, are the
primary ingredient in compound feed, only animals kept in intensive system are estimated to contribute to feed
grain demand.

A majority of beef cattle are reared under extensive system or semi intensive system and fed local forages with
supplementary feeding using by products available locally such as rice bran, wheat bran, palm kernel meal, copra
meal, tofu waste, cassava waste etc. Cattle raised under intensive system are found mainly in feedlots, using
imported cattle and only a limited number of local cattle. This type of business have been expanding in Lampung,
West Java using imported beef cattle from Australia and the farm uses a mixed ration feeding system to fatten the
animals for 2-4 months before they are slaughtered. The TMR (total mixed ration) consists of local by-products
and feed grains, including corn. The number of beef cattle imported peaked at 600,000 head 5 years ago and then

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has since declined, in response to the Indonesian Governments policy of self sufficiency in beef cattle. The live
cattle imports from Australia consequently decreased to 271,328 in 2012, a 28% drop from the previous year.
Most of imported cattle are slaughtered to provide beef for Jakarta and other large cities and the result of this
policy has been high cattle and beef prices.

Dairy cattle production is mainly situated in Java with only a few dairy farms outside of Java excepting small
dairy farms in North Sumatra. A majority of dairy farms are located in upland areas such as Pujon, Nongkojajar
and Blitar (East Java), Boyolali (Central Java) and Tanjung Sari, Lembang and Pengalengan in West Java (see
attached map). Dairy cattle are reared in farms managed under cooperative systems and only 3 dairy companies
have modern facilities. Most of ruminants reared under the extensive system are fed local forages with little
supplementary feeding. Beef feedlots and dairy animals are fed forages and supplemented with compound feed
from feed manufacturers but very little feed grain is used in formulation. Therefore, estimations on feed grain use
will continue to be driven by demand for grain for poultry production.

Monogastric animals, poultry and swine, play the critical role for projecting feed demand. Compound feed
manufactured by feed millers are dedicated for producing broiler, layer, breeder and aqua feed with small amount
of feed for other species such as swine, ducks and quail.

Poultry systems

Broiler production increased significantly over the last 5 years, by 7.6 % per year over the period (Annex 2). In
2012, day old chick production reached 1.85 million with the Indonesian Poultry Breeder Association (GPPU)
projecting that broiler production would reach 2.2 million tons in 2013 which pushes Indonesia into position as
one of the top eleven broiler production in the world. Over the last decade, broiler production has situated itself
in Java Island in close proximity to big cities in both Java and North Sumatra provinces. Since then, broiler
production has spread to other provinces including South Sumatra, South Sulawesi and West Kalimantan (see
Appendix 2 and Figure 5).

Broiler production is highest in West Java where the number of birds exceeds 665 million per year. This high
concentration of broiler output is linked to high broiler demand in the Jakarta areas characterized by high
purchasing power. The development of broiler production in other provinces is increasingly linked to rising
incomes. In the provinces less densely populated, such as Maluku and Papua, broiler meat is obtained from
other provinces.

The major broiler breeds used by the industry are well known imported breeds such as Cobb, Ross, Hubbard and
Lohman; they are typically imported as Grand Parent Stock or Parent Stock when the supply from Grand Parent
Stock companies are not sufficient. The Indonesian Government has been trying to improve local breeds to
replace imported breeds in an attempt to achieve self-sufficiency. However, the performance of local breed lags
those of modern breeds.

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 Figure 5. Map of Indonesia indicates the concentration of broiler production in the province (red circle).

Unlike broiler production, the major province for layer production is located in East Java with a bird population
reaching almost 38 million layers, followed by Central Java, West Java and North Sumatra (see Appendix 3 and
Figure 6). Originally, the layer population was concentrated in areas where feed grain, especially corn, was
available. Most of farmers in East and Central Java purchase layer concentrate feed from companies which is
then mixed with ground corn and rice bran which is available locally. This system is financially advantageous as
most of layer feed is in mash form and farmers thus reduce cost of production.

Most recently, layer production areas have extended into other provinces such as South Sumatra, South Sulawesi,
Lampung, Riau, East Kalimantan and West Kalimantan but still the major consumption areas for eggs are located
in the big cities in Indonesia. Layer production favors the production of brown egg with the major breeds
dominated by modern layers such as ISA, Hyline, Lohman, Hisex and a relative newcomer Novogen. Consumer
preferences are for brown eggs produced by modern layer facilities which are less expensive than eggs from
local chickens. The majority of local chickens are raised under backyard system with low input or little
supplementary feeding. Eggs from local chickens are more expensive than eggs from modern layer and egg
production performance of local chicken lags behind that of the modern layer.

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Figure 6. Map of Indonesia indicates the concentration of layer production in the province (red circle).

3.3. Evolution of livestock farm sizes

Detailed data on livestock farm size is difficult to get as farm sizes have evolved over time. The DGLAHS
publishes yearly statistics on Livestock and Animal Health but the latest figures from 2012 did not include data
on farm size. Previously livestock statistics released in 2010 reported that there were a total of 215,096 family
farmers involved in broiler production and 97,188 family farmers producing layers. With total broiler production
estimated at approximately 1.250 million birds per year and, assuming a farmer is able to harvest broiler 6 cycles
per year, this would imply an average broiler farm size of only 1,000 bird per farm. In the case of laying hens, the
population in 2010 was estimated at 103.8 million birds; therefore, each family farm will have only 1,068 birds.
Meanwhile, national statistics define farmers based on the number of chicken raised by family and the number
of birds for broilers and layers is 60 and 12 birds, respectively. This number is obviously too small to profitably
invest in modern broiler facilities. Since the early 1970 when Indonesia started to adopt modern broiler
production technologies, broilers were raised by small farms with an average farm size of <1000 broilers.
However, the strong competition among the farms resulted and it became increasingly uneconomical to invest in
small broiler operations. As a result, many broiler farms expanded with flock populations rising/on average/farm
from 10,000 up to million broilers.

Many broiler farms are owned by large integrated companies that control the production system from the point
on producing day old chicks, establishing hatcheries, feedmill operations, slaughterhouses and investment in
further processing up even to retail outlets, such as chicken shops. Many farmers raise broiler under contractual
arrangements with large companies or occasionally a group of farmers manage their own production system.
There are a few independent broiler farmers still existing but they face difficulty with strong competition with
broiler integrators.

Recent surveys by private consultants (unpublished) indicated that layer farm size in Indonesia may reach
90-100 thousand laying hens per farm but the broader range is estimated from 3000- >1 million birds per farm.
The size of layer farms varies among districts in the province with some layer farms evolving into larger farms
with total layer production reaching over 1 million birds. However, there are still many small layer farms that
maintain flock numbers between 500 to 3000 birds. These systems are often managed in a nucleus system, in
which one farmer would undertake the marketing of eggs for all farms in the system and may also purchase feed
and vaccines for the group. The Indonesian Market Information Center (PINSAR) indicated that new layer farms,
managed by groups, increased in Central and East Java and it is estimated that >100,000 layer farms exist in
Indonesia if small farms in the group are counted as individual farms. The majority of large layer farms will have
average size around 100,000 birds.

It is expected that small farms will continue to decrease while the large farms continue to expand. This is related
to economies of scale based on the profitability per bird; per unit costs decrease as the size of farms expand. The
evolution of broiler industries shows similar trends in many countries reflecting the declining costs of
production/bird in the context of rising farm size. It is difficult for a family to profitably raise broilers with only
3,000 birds per cycle, therefore necessitating a farm size higher than 5,000 birds. Many contract growers would
require a farm size exceeding 10,000 birds/cycle.

3.4. Efficiency of feed utilization

Feed grain demand in Indonesia, as indicated, is largely determined by trends in the poultry sector, especially in

16
the context of growing demand and the shift in farm size and the structure of the broiler and layer industries.
Efficiency in feed utilization is normally expressed as Feed Conversion Ratio (FCR), calculated by dividing the
total amount of feed consumed by poultry by the amount of product produced. In the case of broilers, FCR is
calculated based on feed consumed by broiler is divided by broiler weight produced. Typically, because of the
global similarities in producing broilers, the FCR will follow the standard of modern broiler recommended by
the breeding company; however, the FCR will be different for different weights of the individual broilers.
Appendix 4 shows that the performance of broilers over the last 40 years has been improved significantly as a
result of faster growth and better feed efficiency. Continued improvement of genetic performance by breeding
companies also results in much better performance of broiler breeds.

In Indonesia, the broiler size is considered small with an average weight between 1.6-1.8 kg and there are still
many requirements for lighter birds with live weight between 1.2-1.4 kg. Biologically, broiler growth in small
birds will have a better feed conversion ratio (FCR) or feed utilization rather than the bigger size of broiler. The
Indonesian Feedmill Association reported that broilers with body weight at 1.7 kg will have FCR 1.65-1.70,
e.g.in order to raise broiler to 1.7 kg, it is necessary to provide the bird over its life span 2.8 kgs of feed. This
figure would be around 10% less than feed efficiency recommended by breeding companies. Appendix 5 shows
the body weight, daily gain, feed consumption and FCR of broiler of different age based on the guidance of Cobb
breeding company.

Standards of broiler performance can be achieved when broiler is raised under optimum condition such as in a
closed house system. However, the majority of broilers in Indonesia are raised in the open house systems with a
less hygienic environment; therefore the performance is generally less than that recommended by the breeding
company.

In case of modern layers systems, the performance of commercial layers may vary between farms. Again
standard performance recommended by breeding companies should be achieved when a farm is able to properly
manage and control their environment, disease, feed and feeding management. Feed Conversion Ratios can be
calculated based on the amount of feed consumed divided by egg mass produced. Egg mass is calculated from
egg production/hen/day multiplied by egg weight. Generally, the performance standard for the ISA brown strain
that is used by a majority of layer farms is presented in Appendix 6:

Generally FCR for layer farm in open sided houses with battery cages will not able to achieve maximum
performance as recommended at 2.15; rather FCR in many layer farms would exceed 2.3, or about 7% less
efficient than the recommendations. Several factors may contribute to the lower efficiency; this could include a
higher provision of feed (115 g compared to 111 g per day as recommendation) and/or slightly lower egg weight
due to tropical conditions and disease challenges. According to the Indonesian Poultry Breeder Association
(GPPU) and Indonesian Feedmills Association (GPMT), average laying hens from 19 to 85 weeks of age during
production will consume around 50 kg of feed, while for pullet development from 0-18 weeks; a bird will
consume around 7.5 kg of feed.

Layers are normally kept in production until 85 weeks, but this may vary among farms based on economics.
When the price of eggs is high and egg production is still high, the farmer may maintain their layers in
production to more than 85 weeks. Alternatively, when prices fall, the farmers will likely cull the bird earlier.
The relationship between price and bird retension also is relevant for management of breeding farms; when the
price of day old chicks increases, the decision to cull broiler breeders can be extended up to 68 weeks. However,
several breeding companies may cull the breeder chickens sooner when the price of day old chick decreases due

17
to excess supply. Broiler breeders normally consume 29 kg of feed during their peak production period from 25
to 68 weeks, or an estimated daily intake of around 163 g per bird, while for pullet development, the farm
allocates 12.5 kg to raise breeders to 24 weeks of age.

Feed demand for poultry (broiler, layer and breeder) can be calculated on the basis of amount of feed consumed
at different stages during the birds life cycle. Although feed consumed per animal may vary between the farms,
average feed consumed per animal can be obtained from the industries through the Association such as GGPU
and GPMT.

3.5. The aquaculture sector: trends and farm size

Indonesia has more than 1 million ha dedicated to aquaculture and area expansion continues to grow (Appendix
9). Over the last 5 years, the area for aquaculture grew annually 10 percent, with significant growth found in
marine culture that actually reached 59% per year. While Indonesian aquaculture production has continued to
increase significantly over the last 5 years; data is only available up to 2011.

The number of households involved in aquaculture also increased over the last 5 years but at a much slower rate
compared to the growth in area (Appendix 10). A significant growth is also noted for families involved in marine
culture. A much higher price of marine fish compared to fresh water fish makes marine fish culture more
attractive to the farmers. The average ownership of area per household in fish culture is presented in Appendix
11. The area for fish culture per household may indicate the size of pond or cage per family farmers. The
Appendix indicates that the significant increase in size of aquaculture is found in marine fish culture with
average ownership 1 ha per family. Other type of aquaculture remain small in size of area with the biggest area
per family found for brackish water ponds which produce milk fish with average size 3 ha per family.
Aquaculture production can be divided into marine culture and fresh water aquaculture. Marine aquaculture is
dominated by shrimp and small quantity of marine fish such as grouper and sea bass. Milk fish is included as
fresh water aquaculture although most of milk fish culture is located in brackish water. Due to disease problems,
shrimp culture did not increase significantly over the last 5 years with production averaging around 400,000 tons.
The Indonesian Government has tried to revive shrimp production by renovating the existing ponds in some
regions. The Ministry of fisheries and marine affairs include sea weed production as part of aquaculture.

Marine culture is, however, still relatively new for many farmers with the dominant species classified as grouper
and sea bass. Among freshwater fish, significant growth is noticed in fish culture using cages and floating nets,
which has expanded at rates of 24 and 34 % per year, particularly in lakes, reservoir and river systems.

Aquaculture production is dominated by fresh water fish species such as tilapia, milk fish, common carp,
pangasius catfish and local catfish. Most of fresh water species are raised in pond system or in floating cages
placed in reservoirs, lakes or rivers. In addition, some common carp and tilapia can be cultured in rice field in
conjunction with paddy planting. Appendix 7 shows that the significant growth in fish production is underpinned
by strong output growth in pangasius catfish and local catfish, rising at rates of 70% and 40% per year,
respectively. Those species have become increasingly popular in some areas in Sumatra and East Java,
respectively. Tilapia production also increased significantly, escalating nearly 30 %/year and major tilapia
production can be found in Java and Sumatra. Common carp can normally grow in reservoirs but some farmers
grow this fish in paddy fields or within pond systems. Most of freshwater fish are consumed locally but large
tilapia farms in North Sumatra have been able to export fish fillets to other countries.

18
Appendix 8 shows the trends in aquaculture production by province over the 2007 to 2011 period. Major
aquaculture production, in terms of fish, is still dominantly produced on Java Island, followed by Sumatra and
then Kalimantan. On Java Island, production is dominated by fresh water species and milk fish cultured in
coastal areas. Common carp are the major fish produced in West Java, especially raised in floating nets
established at Cirata, Jatiluhur and Saguling Lake, including village ponds. Local catfish production is dominant
in East Java and in some parts of Central Java which use pond systems as lake availability is limited. Pangasius
catfish production is predominantly in West and South Sumatra, while tilapia and common carp culture is found
mostly in North Sumatra.

3.6. Efficiency of feed utilization in aquaculture production

Deriving feed use and demand for aquaculture is possible for intensive systems; however, for semi intensive
systems, fish are fed not only with compound feed sold by feedmills but also with feed from natural resources, so
accurately estimating feed demand for these systems is difficult. The amount of feed consumed by fish may
also vary depending upon the age of fish or size of fish to be harvested. The Indonesian Feedmill Association
provides compound feed production data based on monthly reports from the members and almost all feed
companies are currently members of this Association; consequently these figures are estimated to be fairly
representative of national production. In 2012, they reported that feed production for fish reached 1.2 million
tons, mainly for fresh water fish and shrimp. Fish and shrimp feed do not use corn in the formulation due to the
lower energy requirements for aquaculture rather than for poultry. In addition, no wheat is used in shrimp or fish
feed except when the price is very low compared to the price of other feed inputs. Rather, shrimp feed
incorporates wheat flour rather than whole wheat, while fish feed may include grain by-products such as rice
bran, wheat bran, wheat pollard and wheat sort.

Feed utilization efficiency will vary depending upon fish species, quality of feed and method of fish culture.
Unlike poultry, the efficiency in feed utilization is not expressed by Feed Conversion Ratio. The efficiency in
feed utilization is expressed by percentage of live weight gain from 100 parts of feed given to the fish; therefore
the higher the efficiency, the higher the number. According to one feed manufacturer, the average feed efficiency
for pelleted feed for common carp grown in floating net is 55-57% and the efficiency is improved when feed is
extruded to produce floating foam. Depending upon the length of time to grow, tilapia grown up to 1 kg may
have feed efficiency at 60% or FCR around 1.7-2.0 depending upon mortality rate.

Local catfish is considered the most efficient fresh water fish to convert feed into live weight. The majority of
local catfish are grown in pond systems and fed floating feed. When catfish feed is formulated to contain a
reasonable amount of protein (30-32%), the feed efficiency may reach >90 % for a FCR of around 1.0-1.1.
However, for Pangasius catfish the feed efficiency would be lower. Data from Pangasius culture in Mekong
Delta, Vietnam indicated that FCR to grow fish up to 1 kg may reach 1.6-1.8 depending upon protein content in
the feed.

Freshwater fish cultures are usually conducted by small farmers either in backyard ponds or in floating net
placed in reservoir or lake. The ownership of floating nets (size 6x6 m) can vary from 4 to several dozens for
bigger farms. The size of pond culture can be several hundred square meter to several ha, divided into 0.25 0.5
ha. The farmers may specialize in breeding to produce fingerling or farmers may specialize in grow out
activities. The grow out may take 3-6 months depending upon the size of fish to be harvested; therefore the
farmers may be able to have 3-4 cycles of grow-out per year.

19
4. Growth and Structural Change in Feed Sector
4.1. Trends in feed utilization for livestock and aquaculture
The development of a compound feed industry was linked to the development of industrial types of poultry
operations in early 1970. Modern layer systems were first introduced in Indonesia and then followed by modern
broiler operations Prior to the 1970s, meat consumption is dominated by beef while eggs for consumption were
obtained from village chicken and ducks. With the introduction of modern chicken hybrids, farms required
special formulated feed to fulfil the nutrient requirements of these breed as recommended by advancement of
nutritional science of chicken. Feed production initiated with the production of mash, followed later by pelleted
feed which was specially introduced for broiler production. Therefore feed industries were transformed from
home industry types equipped with only hammer mill and vertical mixer.

In the early 1980s feed production continued to grow and multinational companies such as Cargill (USA),
Charoen Pokphand (Thailand) and Gold Coin (Europe) started to enter the compound feed market, investing in
more modern feedmills which produced high quality compound feed. At this time, compound feed production
was largely dedicated to the production of poultry feed, both broilers and layers. The ingredients were obtained
from locally available corn and by products such as rice bran and fish meal. The growing demand for protein
source of ingredients, such as soybean meal, resulted in a local company setting up a soy crushing plant in
Jakarta with the purpose to produce soybean meal rather than its previous focus on oil production. However, in
the early 1990s, this only soy crushing plant was abandoned.

However, compound feed production continued to grow and by 1997, the year of the Asian economic crisis, feed
production reached 7 million tons. Production levels decreased significantly to only 2.5 million ton in 1998 after
the crisis. However poultry production recovered quickly after the crisis so that by 2001 feed production retuned
to almost 7 million ton, similar to that year before the crisis.

Indonesian feed production has increased significantly over the last 10 years (Figure 7) and, by 2012, total feed
production reached 12.3 MMT for livestock feed and 1.2 MMT for aqua feed (Appendix 12). USGC estimated
that, by 2013, feed production would exceed 15 million. Trend analysis for the last 10 years shows that
compound feed production grew exponentially with average growth more than 10% per year, especially over the
last 4 years. Compound feed production is estimated to continue to increase in the future to support projected
growth trends in animal production, especially poultry and aquaculture.

Most compound feed is produced by feed manufacturers dedicated to broiler, layer and broiler breeder feed with
little compound feed used for swine and other poultry species such as native chicken, local ducks and quail.
GPMT reported that total feed production is allocated as follows: 45% to broiler feed, 44% to layer feed, 9% to
breeder feed and only 2% for other species. Therefore, as indicated previously, feed grain use can be estimated
mainly based on poultry production in modern systems.

20
 16,000
y = 6080.5e0.0792x
14,000
R = 0.9402
12,000

10,000
TMT

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

-
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Poultry: broiler Poultry: layer

Swine Fish
Ruminant (dairy+beef) Total Feed Production (TMT)
Expon. (Total Feed Production (TMT))

Figure 7. Indonesian compound feed production in 2004-2013.

Source: USGC (2013) unpublished and 2013 is estimation

Most of poultry feed is sold to modern operations rather than to smaller producers of local chicken. The
Directorate General of Livestock and Animal Health (DGLAH) reported that only 8% of native chicken are kept
under intensive systems and they are fed around 80 g per day (Hutasuhut et al., 2013). There is no report on
production systems for ducks and pig, but it is estimated that only 15% of pigs are raised under intensive systems
using modern breeds with the rest of pig operations extensively managed using local breeds. With regard to duck
production systems, some ducks are raised under intensive or semi intensive systems characterized by some
supplementary feeding. It is estimated that only 30 % of ducks are fed supplementary feed, at amounts of 50 g
per day.

As mentioned, the annual growth of animal feed over the last 4 years has been estimated between 9-12 percent,
while aqua feed increased at 7-12% per year. In 2012, aqua feed growth jumped 12% compare to the previous
year. However, the rate of increase fluctuates depending upon economics, disease and other issues. For example,
feed production dropped in 2004 when bird flu outbreak occurred in Indonesia. Feed production also slowed
when grain prices were very high in 2010. However, despite these economic fluctuations, Indonesian feed
production continues to grow, supported by steady demand growth for poultry products.

According to GPPU, the countrys aggregate per capita consumption of chicken is currently among the lowest in
Asia at about 7.4kg/year and is expected to increase 16% to 8.6kg in 2013. Meanwhile, the Chairman of
Indonesian Society of Poultry Forum (FMPI) estimated that per capita consumption of chicken meat in Jakarta at
about 36-40kg/year. The Indonesian Ministry of Trade (past Vice Minister of Agriculture) estimated that

21
poultry consumption may double (from 2012) to 14kg per capita (CAGR 12.2%) by 2018. Industry sources
such as GPMT and FMPI have similar forecasts of per capita chicken consumption of about 15kg by 2017. Since
more than 90% of feed production is dedicated for poultry, it is expected that feed production in Indonesia will
also double from 2013 to 2018. It is also true considering the growth of day old chick production in the last 5
years (see Figure 8.).

Estimated Broiler Production

2,400
y = 160.86x + 1400.8
2,200
R = 0.9506
No Chick (Million)

2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Figure 8. Broiler production in Indonesia 2009-2013.

4.2. Factors affecting feed utilization

4.2.1. Availability of feedstuffs and sources of supply

To ensure the feeding of livestock and aquatic animals (fish and shrimp), feedmills rely on both domestic and
imported feedstuffs; however, Indonesian feedmills are increasingly becoming more reliant on imported feed
ingredients as can be seen in Table 2 with the share of imported feed ingredients ranging from 90-95 for fish and
other protein meals to only 5-10 percent for corn.

Table 2. Sources of some of feed ingredients in Indonesia

No. Sources
Feed Ingredient
Local Import
1. Corn 90-95 5-10
2. Fish Meal 5-10 90-95
3. MBM 0 100
4. Soybean Meal 0 100
5. Rapeseed Meal 0 100
6. Corn Gluten Meal 0 100
7. Feed Additive 0 100
8. Rice Bran 100 0

22
 9. Copra Meal 100 0
10. Palm Kernel Meal 100 0
11. CPO 100 0

Source: Indonesian Feedmill Association (GPMT) reported by Hutasuhut et al. (2013) DGLAH

Local feed ingredient production in Indonesia is presented in Appendix 13 (source: US Grains Council data).
The data include agriculture products that may be used for feed production. Corn data was obtained from USDA
PSD (Production Supply Demand) 1. Corn demand for feed is estimated based on unofficial reports from
Indonesian Feedmill Association while corn demand for food is obtained from CYMMIT (International Maize
and Wheat Improvement Center). It is estimated that 50% of corn production is dedicated for food while
industrial use of corn is limited to dried corn and wet milled. Within the corn balance sheets, imports of corn are
obtained from Global Atlas Trade thus allowing the estimation of corn ending stocks

Production data of potential feed ingredients, such as cassava, is sourced from the Central Statistical Board of
Indonesia. Cassava can be a good source of energy for animal feeding and current production is estimated at over
24 MMTs; however, this figure is questionable considering the difficulty of feedmills to obtain cassava. Some
feed industries are relying on imported cassava from Thailand. Local soybean production, estimated at 934 TMT
in 2012, is entirely used for human consumption as is rice, with the exception of by-products, such as rice bran,
which is used for feeding livestock and aquaculture. Palm oil production is estimated at 31 mmt in 2013,
however, most of palm oil is exported and used for food consumption with only a small quantity available as an
energy source for feeding. There is palm kernel meal available locally with production estimated at 3.5 MMT of
which more than 3 MMT exported.

Corn from local production is not sufficient to fulfill the demand of feed manufacturers; therefore Indonesia has
had to import corn to accommodate growing demand. Although GPMT claims that only 5 to 10% of corn
requirements are imported, that percentage depends yearly upon domestic corn availability. If data from Central
Board Statistic of Indonesia is used, estimated at 18.5 million tons, corn imports of 1.5 million tons in 2012
would account for more than 10% of overall use. However, FAS USDA-Indonesia reported that corn production
in MY 2012/13 is estimated 9 MMT (increasing from 8.85 MMT in previous MY 2011/12); consequently corn
imports in this case would be more than 15% of total corn demand. GPMT forecast that in 2013, Indonesia would
import 2.8 MMT, accounting for approximately 30% of total corn requirements.

Feed ingredients imports can be divided into plant and animal derived materials. Indonesia has a feed deficit of
protein sources; therefore most of protein sources both from plant and animal origin have to be imported. Table 3
indicates that majority of protein sources come from soybean meal with soybean meal the dominant protein
source of plant origin.
Table 3. Imported feed ingredients of plant origin, 2008 to 2012 (000 tons)

Feed ingredients 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Corn 170 293 1,553 3,075 1,538
Soybean meal 1,806 2,171 2,839 2,928 3,477

1
The Foreign Agriculture Service (USDA) in Indonesia estimated corn production from areas reported by Central Statistical Board
but it was cross checked by seed companies who sell hybrid seed, yield and area planted besides local seed from Directorate of Food
Crops, Ministry of Agriculture.

23
 Dried Distillers Grains with Solubles
(DDGS) 78 141 212 256 234
Corn gluten meal (CGM) 137 125 140 178 267
Rapeseed meal (RSM) 105 105 59 142 154
Total 2,296 2,835 4,803 6,579 5,697
- Source: Hutasuhut et al. (2013) DGLAH

In addition, there are other plant-based protein sources such as corn gluten meal, Dried Distillers Grains with
Solubles (DDGS), rapeseed meal or canola meal. Other protein sources are used by feedmills to reduce the cost
of feed. Unlike other countries that have crushing plants and can produce soybean meal domestically, Indonesia
imports all of its soybean meal for compound feed production. Incentives to invest in crushing plants dont
exist because the oil produced in the crushing plant would not be able to compete with less expensive oil such as
locally produced palm oil. In addition, Indonesia is also importing large quantities of whole soybean (1.8 MMT),
used directly for human food.

Besides plant-based protein ingredients, Indonesia also imports ingredients derived from animals. Many types of
animal by-products, such as meat bone meal (MBM), poultry by product meal (PBM), hydrolyzed feather meal,
blood meal from animals and fish meal and fish oil (Appendix 14). Most of fish meal is used as aquatic feed since
the final fish products are relatively expensive and cost of fish meal is uneconomical for producing livestock feed.
Therefore, most livestock feed (poultry and pig) incorporates animal by-products, such as meat meal, as
alternative ingredients, to reduce the costs of feed. These animal by- products are mainly imported from the
countries free from zoonotic diseases with the only two countries allowed to supply meat meal including
Australia/New Zealand and USA. Due to BSE concerns, no meat bone meal is allowed from Europe and South
America. In addition, only meat bone meal derived from ruminants is allowed in the country.

4.2.2. Feedstuffs: their price and substitutability

Fed ingredients average 85-90 percent of the total cost of feed production; therefore when feed ingredients price
increases, feed costs increase accordingly. Figure 9 shows that the prices of broiler and layer feed have continued
to increase over the last 10 years and, in fact, the price of feed in 2012 was almost 3 times higher than the price in
2002. The price of broiler ration is
6000 always more expensive than price of
5000 layer feed due to nutritional content
4000 especially energy, protein (amino acids)
Rp/kg 3000 as well as phosphorus; those nutrients
2000 are the most expensive nutrients for
1000 poultry feed. This can be demonstrated
during feed formulation exercise.
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
Corn Broiler Feed Layer Feed

Figure 9. Price change of corn and feed (broiler and layer) 2002-2012
Source: USGC (2013)

24
Increases in feed price are usually related to the corn price with corn typically accounting for 50% in the feed
formulation. However, decreases in the corn price, such as that in 2012, doesnt necessarily result in a decrease
the final feed price. The exchange rate of local currency to US dollar also influences the price of corn
depending on the ratio of imports/total use.

In some countries when other cereals are available, corn can be substituted by other cereals such as wheat, barley
or broken rice. Unfortunately, such types of cereal are not available in Indonesia and there are certain restrictions
on wheat imports, although this is for food rather than feed2.. In addition, the cost of those ingredients would be
nutritionally more expensive than the cost of corn. Cassava produced locally may be used to substitute corn to a
certain extent; unfortunately supplies of cassava are also limited and feed use competes with other usage such as
starch production. It is noteworthy that an ethanol factory that use cassava as feedstock was recently closed down
due to lack of cassava domestically.

Most feed manufacturers use computer feed formulation software to derive the least cost rations. Using the
software, it is possible to identify an ingredient that can be substituted by other ingredients when not available or
when price shifts dictate opportunities for substitution. Most of feed manufacturers continue to search for ways
to utilize alterative ingredient more efficiently, thus reducing the cost of feed.

4.2.4. Structural change in feed industries

The Indonesian Feedmills Association (GPMT) reported that there are 56 companies now members of the
association, with total feedmills reach 57 plants throughout Indonesia. However, there are small feedmills or
companies that are not members of the association. In addition, there are companies that have several plants
located in different provinces in Indonesia. Table 4 shows the name of the company and number of plants. Total
capacity of feed production in 2013 is reported at 14.5 million ton but in the beginning 2014, it is estimated that
feed production capacity will reach 16 million ton.

Table 4. List of some feed companies and number of plants in Indonesia.

Number
No. Company of Plants
1 PT. Charoen Pokphand 10
2 PT. Japfa Comfeed 14
3 PT. Cheil Jedang Superfeed 3
4 PT. Wonokojo Jaya Corp 2
5 PT. Cargill Indonesia 3
6 PT. Sierad Feedmill 2
7 PT. Malindo Feedmill 3
8 PT. Mabar Feed Indonesia 2
9 PT. Sinta Prima Feedmill 1
10 PT. Gold Coin Indonesia 3

2 Wheat import is regulated for food to protect wheat flour industries but it affects feed wheat import

25
 11 PT. Panca Patriot Feedmill 1
12 PT. Universal Agribisnisindo 1
13 PT. Berlian Unggas/Cargill 1
14 PT. Wellgro Feedmill 1
15 PT. Metro Inti Sejahtera 1
16 PT. Wirifa Sakti-Surabaya 1
17 PT. Citra Ina Feedmill 1
18 PT. Cibadak Indah 1
19 PT. Siba Prima-Solo 1
20 PT. Kerta Mulya Sari Pakan 1
21 PT. Seta Kencana Feedmill 1
22 PT. Manggis Feed 1
23 PT. New Hope Indonesia 2
Self Mixing (Layer& swine)
Home mixing (dairy & beef cattle)
TOTAL 57

Among the companies currently operating in Indonesia, those companies in bold in Table 3 are multinational (or
foreign) companies (MNC) while the others are domestic. Currently international feed investments come from
Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, USA, China and France. Currently, there is considerable interest in
investing in feedmills in Indonesia, both from foreign direct investment or domestic. Recent data indicated that
number of feed plant has expanded to 65 with 3 more plants being developed; it is estimated that the total number
of feedmills may reach 68 by 2014. Currently, there are no restrictions on business investment in feedmills but
recent information indicates that there might be restrictions on foreign investments in poultry operations. IT has
been stated that investments in layer farms would be restricted for foreign investors as there is sufficient number
of layer farms in Indonesia; however, this is not clear, nor officially regulated.

Indonesian feed companies can be catagoried into 3 types, based on yearly production: large (> 1 million tons),
medium (200.000 to 1 million tons) and small (<200.000 tons). There are 2 large companies, namely Charoen
Pokphand Indonesia and Japfa Comfeed that annually produce 3.6 and 2.7 million tons, respectively. The second
tier would be Malindo, Cargill, Cheil Jedang, Wonokoyo, Sierad Produce, Sinta Prima, Gold Coin, Mabar Feed,
Panca Patriot and Universal. The rest is produced by small feedmills with yearly feed production of less than
200.000 ton. There are some companies that have several feed plants located in various provinces.

4.2.5. Policies

Policies for meat/dairy imports include Indonesias restrictions on meat imports from countries that are not free
of Foot and Mouth Disease. Therefore, most beef imports come from Australia, New Zealand and USA.
Indonesia does not allow meat imports from either India and Brazil despite the large role they play in
international meat trade. In 2012, in anticipation of promoting self-sufficiency in beef meat, Indonesia also
introduced a quota system on beef imports as well as import restrictions on live cattle trade from Australia;
however these restrictions resulted in price hike of beef due to lack supply from local beef. In 2013 meat import
authority was transferred from the Department of Agriculture to the Department of Trade, with the Department
of Trade approving regulations to allow more imports of live cattle and beef with the objective of reducing the
price of beef. Indonesia does not have official restrictions on broiler meat imports, however, halal regulations
act as defacto trade restrictions and now Indonesia only allows meat imports from certified halal slaughter

26
houses. There are no trade restrictions on dairy product imports and it is estimated that 70-80% of dairy products
requirement are imported.

Indonesia has a very liberal policy towards the imports of animal feed ingredients. However, to ease the burden
of soaring prices of imported feed ingredients over the last few years and to constrain inflation, the GPMT is
negotiating with the Indonesian government to reduce the imported duty of feed ingredients. A five percent
tariff is currently imposed on corn, rapeseed meal, lysine, DDGS and fish oil. Lysine, other amino acids and feed
additives are also subject to the same import duty. In 2011, the Indonesian Government decided to temporarily
rescind the regulation that initially increased the import duty on feed ingredients by 5 percent, by issuing
Ministry of Finance Decree No. 13/PMK.011/2011 on January 24, 2011. This decree temporarily reduced the
previous import duty of grain and feed and oilseeds to zero percent. The new import duty was in place from the
date of the regulation until December 31, 2011. The implementation of zero percent duty was to be assessed
two months before it expired. Once the new regulation expired, the import duty of the following affected
commodities returned to five percent.

Besides tariff policies, there are also policies restricting the import of feed ingredients derived from animals. The
Indonesian government treats the imports of animal proteins as a sensitive area. The import of cattle derived
meat and bone meal (MBM) from all countries that are listed by the OIE as affected by BSE outbreak is banned.
This policy exists because the government is concerned that there could be incident where MBM could be used
in cattle feed. In 2013 the Ministry of Agriculture advised that imports of animal protein from cattle (from
permitted countries) or poultry would need to be accompanied by a certificate that they are free from pork. In the
case of poultry derived products from BSE affected countries, the certificate will also be required to state that the
product is free of any cattle derived materials.

Over the past 5 years, the Indonesian Government continues to have programs aimed at self-sufficiency in 5
important commodities including rice, soybeans, corn, sugar and beef. However, the program will likely have
limited success considering current import needs, including corn for animal feed that is estimated at 3 million
tons in 2013. Limited land availability for agriculture expansion may limit an expansion in corn production. This
is aggravated by an overall decline in existing agriculture land which continues to decrease every year (around
100.000 ha) due to agriculture land conversion to industries and housing. Most of expansion in land utilization
would likely be oriented towards palm oil production rather than for corn. With growing demand for animal
feeds, it is likely that there will not be sufficient amount of corn and other ingredients available locally and
Indonesia will continue to import growing amounts of high quality feed ingredients to fulfill local demand. Any
restrictions or trade barriers to limit import feed ingredients would have impact on animal production, and meat
prices, through increased production costs. Indonesia will continue to have palm kernel meal as an available feed
ingredient but this type of ingredient will have limited use, considering its lower nutritive value, for feeding
monogastric animals such as poultry and fish. Palm kernel meal can, however, be a potential feed for ruminants;
however, currently the majority of the meal is exported to other countries such as New Zealand and Australia for
ruminant feed.

5. Feed Ingredients Demand Estimation

Feed demand, especially for feed grains, can be estimated based on demand for animal feeding rather than
estimation from the supply side (from supply and use balance sheets). Animal feed can be divided into 2 major
groups namely livestock feed and aqua feed with livestock species divided into ruminants, poultry and swine.
Estimation of grain demand is easier for Indonesia as aqua-feed does not utilize feed grain (corn) in feed

27
formulation. Similarly for ruminants, feed grains are not used the diet because alternatives by-products are
readily available and cost competitive with corn. Therefore, the estimation process focuses on feed requirements
for feeding poultry and swine, with swine only a small component of demand due to religious reasons. The
estimates can be calculated on the basis of 1) animal production or, alternatively 2) livestock numbers and
estimates would focus on the needs of intensive systems rather than extensive or traditional system. As indicated
some local poultry such as native chicken and local ducks receive small amount of supplementary feeding using
compound feed.

It was mentioned that animal production or animal numbers are critical inputs when estimating feed demand in
Indonesia. The data should be differentiated among the animal species; however, given the difficulties in
obtaining reliable data from official institutions, data needs to be derived from industries through their respective
associations. In the case of poultry, industry figures are reliable but based on the following assumptions:

- For broiler production (day old chick), 1 Grand Parent Stock (GPS) is able to produce 40 Parent Stock (PS)
and 1 PS will produce 145 day old chick broilers.
- The layer population is typically 1.6 times larger than the number of day old chicks produced in that
particular year as layers may be kept until 85 weeks of age prior to culling.
- The broiler breeder population is counted as female only while the male population is assumed only 10% of
the female population. Meanwhile the Great Grand Parent (GGP) population is 3% of the female
population.
- Since feed requirements for pullets is different than that of layers, both for commercial production and
breeding, the number of pullet is calculated based on the age proportion of life cycle of layers. For example:
a commercial layer pullet is between 0-18 weeks of age while laying capacity is from 19-85 weeks of age.
For a broiler breeder, a pullet is classified from 0-24 weeks of age, with a laying period from 25-68 weeks of
age.
- Broilers will consume 2.8 kg per bird, comprising 0.9 kg of starter and 1.9 kg grower. During the birds life
cycle, layers will consume pullet feed at 7.5 kg and laying hens are fed 50 kg until 85 weeks of age. Broiler
breeders will consume 12.5 kg of pullet feed and 49 kg of laying feed until 68 weeks of age.
- For village chicken, only adult birds kept under intensive systems are counted and the bird is estimated to
receive a daily ration of 80 g of feed.
- For ducks, it is assumed only 30% of the population is kept under intensive and semi intensive system and
they receive supplementary feeding of 50 g per day.

Associations are also able to provide data useful for short term forecasts, especially within one year. The data on
poultry production/birds can be extrapolated for a year. Thus feed demand can be estimated based on actual feed
consumption per bird with total feed demand estimated for a particular species. The final data can be then cross
checked with actual feed production from other associations such as Feedmill Association.

The total swine population in Indonesia was reported at 7.8 million in 2011 with the composition as reported in
Table 5 below:

28
Table 5. Pig population in 2011 (head)

Age group Male Female Total

<1 or 2 months piglets / young 1,209,233 1,221,273 2,430,506

1-2 12 months sub-adults /

1,324,363 1,138,500 2,462,863
replacements

12 months adults / breeders 1,074,540 155,613 1,230,152

Source: Cattle and Buffalo Census (2011) and using parameters from 2008 Livestock Household Census (CBS,
2009) for age categories and male and female ratios

In order to forecast feed demand for swine in Indonesia, the following assumption has been made:

- A majority of pigs are raised in backyard systems using local breeds; therefore, it is assumed that only 15%
of the total pig population are modern breeds, raised under intensive systems using commercial feed. The
amount of feed consumed at different stage of growth is based on recommendations from a technical seminar
conducted by USGC.

In order to estimate feed use, feed formulation techniques are applied, similar to feedmills which use a similar
process. The demand for each ingredient is based on restrictions applied in the formulation, in particular the
nutritional requirements of each species and the age of the animal/bird. While feed formulation is dynamic with
the composition affected by quality of ingredients, availability, nutrient content in a ration and price, most
feedmills use mainly corn and soybean meal based diets. Table 6 shows the typical inclusion rate of ingredients
for feeding animal at different stage of production. Based on those formulas, based on the amount of feed
consumed per head and animal numbers in particular year, it is possible to estimate the demand for each
ingredient in Indonesia. Then, as mentioned above, the results can be cross checked. For example, the total
protein estimated requirements can be compared with the actual import figures, specifically those of soybean
meal, since most of the requirements are imported. The estimation process can be repeated each year when
animal production data is available. If the production data of poultry can be collected in a timely manner, the feed
ingredients estimates can be generated at the same manner. An excel spread sheet (calculator) has been
developed to calculate feed ingredients demand in Indonesia for 2010 to 2013 and can be used for estimation
purposes when animal populations figures are available.

6. Data challenges: gaps and inconsistencies

It is clear that there is a lack of data on feed production and feed ingredients demand in Indonesia. The
Directorate General of Livestock and Animal Health Services (DGLAH) only reports on animal production,
population and consumption for various species without providing data on feed production and ingredient
demand. The Indonesian Central Board of Statistics, the official data authority, only reports on food crop
production, in particular rice, soybean, corn and sugars without data on feed ingredients.

Data is available on grains production from other institutions, however, the data isnt standardized and estimates
vary by institution. The key data providers include the Indonesian Board Central Statistic, Directorate General of
Livestock and Animal Health Services (DGLAH), Ministry of Agriculture, the US Department of Agriculture
(through the Foreign Agriculture Service, FAS/USDA Jakarta), and the Food and Agriculture Organization

29
(FAOSTAT).

30
Table 6. Typical formula of ration for different animal species according to stage of production (% of ingredients used in a ration).

Broiler Layer Breeder Broiler Swine Local chicken Duck Fish

Starter Grower Average Pullet Laying Average Pullet Laying Average Starter Grower Finisher Gestation Lactation Average Laying Laying Fingerling Grower Average
corn 53.7 60 56.85 46.6 51 48.8 52 52.2 52.1 40 40 43 51 34.2 41.6 48 34.6
SBM 28 25.2 26.6 26 16 21 24.3 18.8 21.6 26.8 19.2 16.9 4 10.3 15.4 13 11.7 40 32 36
rice bran 5 8 6.5 10 12 11 15 10 12.5 12 15 20 26 18.3 20 20 10 17 13.5
wheat
pollard 0 0 4.7 4.7 10 12 12 20 20 14.8 5 16.7 20 18.35
anmal
byproduct 6 3 4.5 5 4 4.5 2.5 3 7 4 5.5
DDGS 0 0 2 5 3.5 0 2 1 5 8.8 3 10 2 5.8 10 6 8 7
CGM 0 0 0 3 2 2.5 2 1 1.5 2 2 3 3
RSM 2 2 2 1 0 0.5 3 3 2 3 2 3 2.5
fish meal 2 2 1 1.7 1 10 9 9.5
copra meal
PKE 2 2 3 3 8 8 2 2 2
cassava
hominy
cocoa meal
palm oil 3 4 3.5 3 1 2 2.5 2 2.3 2 2 1 1 1 1.4 1 1 2 2 2

31
6.1. Poultry

Official data for poultry population in Indonesia can be obtained from Directorate General of Livestock and
Animal Health Services (DGLAH) of Ministry Agriculture. The broiler and layer population over the last 5
years is presented in Table 7.

Table 7. Layer and broiler population in Indonesia, 2008-2012

Year
Poultry Species 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 *)
Layer 107.955 111.418 105.210 124.636 130.539
Broiler 902.052 1.026.379 986.872 1.177.991 1.266.903

Source: 2012 Livestock and Animal Health Statistic (DGLAH, 2012)

Broiler meat production would be derived from broiler population figures, taking into consideration the
production cycle of only 30-40 days after which the bird is slaughtered for meat. However, day old chick
production data, as reported by the Indonesian Poultry Breeder Association and Feedmill Association is a
better proxy, estimated at 1.450, 1.645, 1.845 and 2.145 million birds in 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013
respectively. However, there is a wide gap in broiler production between the two sources of data. Data from
the Associations is most reliable when feed demand is calculated in those particular years when the bird
numbers are known. Based on estimates of feed consumed by the individual broilers, the final feed
production data would be very close to the actual production reported by Feedmill Association. Similar
estimates can be derived based on population data for laying hens.

6.3. Feed grains production

As mentioned before, corn production data has been found very different between that reported by
Indonesian Central Board for Statistic (BPS) and that reported by USDA. The data on corn harvest
area, yield and production for the last 10 years from both sources is presented in Table 8.

Table 8. Corn area, yield and production calculated by two reports (BPS and FAS USDA) in
2003-2012

Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Calculated based
on Central Board
Statistic BPS)

32
 Area Harvested (000
Ha) 3359 3357 3626 3346 3630 4002 4161 4132 3865 3367
Yield (Ton/Ha) 3.24 3.34 3.45 3.47 3.66 4.06 4.24 4.44 4.57 4.78
Production (000
Tons) 10886 11225 12524 11609 13288 16317 17630 18328 17643 18962
Calculate based on
FAS-USDA
Area Harvested (000
Ha) 3200 3300 2900 3150 3210 3220 3060 2850 3120 3150
Yield (Ton/Ha) 1.98 2.18 2.34 2.49 2.65 2.7 2.25 2.39 2.84 2.83
Production (000
Tons) 6350 7200 6800 7850 8500 8700 6900 6800 8850 8900
Gap or difference
between BPS and
USDA (000 Tons) 4536 4025 5724 3759 4788 7617 10730 11528 8793 10062

The difference of corn production reported by BPS and USDA can be 10 million tons, quite significant.
FAS/USDA reports that data from BPS were obtained from calculation of harvested areas and yields
from sampling. They question two aspects of this estimation method: the area of corn planting is
derived from the previous years data and the yield measurement is not only the weight of grain (14%
moisture) but also including the weight of corn cob (FAS personal communication). If the corn cob
contributes 50% the yield, the data from BPS would be close to data reported by USDA. It has been
recommended that area estimates of corn planting should be measured by modern techniques using
Global Position Systems or remote sensing. It was reported that corn seed companies may have used
these techniques when estimating area planted/harvested but they do not want to share the data.

Meanwhile, FAS/USDA estimates corn production based on feed demand plus corn for food. They estimate
that corn for food may reach 40% of corn production, changed from previous data that estimated food use at
50-60% of corn production. However, corn food demand includes sweet corn, immature corn and baby corn,
not in the form of grain. Unlike other countries, corn is not culturally considered as staple food, unlike rice.
Due to the lack of official statistics from the GOI, FAS maintains MY 2012/13 Indonesian corn harvested
area at 3.12 million hectares. A recent report of FAS USDA on corn production, supply and demand is
presented in Table 9.

33
Table 9. Corn production supply and demand according to FAS, USDA Jakarta

Marketing
year
Corn-
Indonesia 2009/2010 2010/2011
USDA New Post USDA New
Official Official Post
Area Harvested 3,060 3,060 3,150 3,000
Beginning
Stocks 1,284 1,284 454 691
Production 6,900 6,900 8,000 6,750
MY Imports 1,300 1,337 1,100 2,500
TY Imports 1,300 1,167 1,100 2,500
TY Imp. from
U.S. 74 74 0 500
Total Supply 9,484 9,521 9,554 9,941
MY Exports 30 30 50 0
TY Exports 30 30 50 0
Feed and
Residual 4,500 4,500 4,600 4,600
FSI
Consumption 4,500 4,300 4,500 4,700
Total
Consumption 9,000 8,800 9,100 9,300
Ending Stocks 454 691 404 641
Total
Distribution 9,484 9,521 9,554 9,941
Yield 2 2.2549 3 2.25
Note: Figures in the New Post columns are not USDA Official figures.
Source: Slette, J and S. Meylinah (2013) FAS

6.3. Feed demand

Similar to data reported by Central Board of Statistic Indonesia, FAO (2013) reported 2012 corn production at
19.4 million tons, with corn demand for feed estimated at 9.5 million tons (Table 10). This amount appears high
for the following reasons:
1. Based on Association estimates, Indonesian feed production in 2012 was reported at 12.3 million
34
 tons, dominated by poultry feed (90%) comprised mainly of broiler and layer feed. Inclusion rate of
corn for broiler and layer feed is 57% and 49% respectively, with average at 53%. Based on these
formulas, the corn utilization for feed would only be 6.5 million and little corn is used for
aquaculture and ruminant feeding, both in feedlots and dairy operations.
2. Indonesia imported 3 MMT and 1.5 MMT of corn in 2011 and 2012 respectively and for 2013 the
Feedmill Association reported that corn imports will reach 3 MMT. If local corn production in 2013
reach 19.4 MMT as predicted by FAO, while corn demand for feed is only 6.5 MMT, it is unclear
why Indonesia would be importing 3 mmt of corn. Consequently, both the production and use
figures for corn seem too high.

Table 10. Estimate of corn demand for feed according to FAO.

Marketing Year: 2009.10 2010.11 2011.12 2012.13 2013.14
Production 17629.7 18327.6 17643.3 19387 18839
Commercial Imports 409.62 2034.59 3022.17 2010.2 2200
TOTAL UTILIZATION 20239.32 22662.19 23865.47 25397.2 25689
Domestic Utilization 17899.67 19424.53 19845.9 20717.32 20814
Food Use 6697.433 6975.734 7040.807 7116.052 7217.81
Feed Use 7500 8600 9100 9530 9640
Other Uses 3702.237 3848.796 3705.093 4071.27 3956.19

Source : FAO Data Base (2013)

In addition to high feed demand estimates for corn, FAO also reported wheat used as feed, estimated at
1.5 MMT in 2012. Personal observations at feedmills and discussion with industry experts indicated that
no wheat has been used to produce poultry feed. While a small amount of wheat may be used for fish feed,
the majority of aqua feedmills, due to price differentials, would use wheat by-products such as wheat bran,
wheat pollard and wheat sort rather than whole wheat.

7. Conclusions and Recommendations

Livestock production in Indonesia increased quickly over the last 5 years and will continue its growth into
the future. This growth was dominated by industrial broiler and layer operations, supported by gains in
production of aquaculture, particularly finfish species, both fresh water and marine. Growing livestock and
aqua production was accompanied by strong growth in feed production with total feed production for
livestock in 2012 reaching 12.3 million tons while aqua feed reached 1.3 million tons. Livestock feed
production is dominated by broiler feed (45%), layer feed (44%), poultry breeder feed (9%) and other
monogastric animals (2%), while aqua feed production is mainly driven by growth in demand for fresh water
fish species such as tilapia, common carp, pangasius and local catfish, and milk fish. Over the last 4 years,
35
compound feed production grew at rate of 10-12% per year and will continue to grow in line with poultry
(broiler and layer) and fish production.

For manufactured compound feed, several type of feed ingredients are required, in particular, corn and
soybean meal. In addition, several local by- products (rice bran, wheat bran, palm kernel meal, copra meal)
are available but major protein sources such as soybean meal, corn gluten meal, animal by product meals,
fish meal, DDGS, rapeseed meal) are imported to meet the nutritional requirements of animals. In terms of
energy sources, Indonesia relies heavily on feed grain, particularly corn. Corn is produced locally but is not
sufficient to fulfill local feed demand, thus over the past 4 years between10-30% of national requirements
have been imported. Indonesia will continue to import corn and other protein sources such as soybean meal
and animal by-product meals as local ingredients such as palm kernel meal are not sufficient to support the
growing demand for high quality feed ingredients. Expansion of local corn production will be limited by
land availabilities and low productivity. Within this context, modern technologies such as biotechnology and
a commitment to identify new land for agriculture should be adopted; otherwise, Indonesia will increasingly
rely upon imports to fulfill the local demand for animal feeding.

Clearly poor data, in this case, production statistics for corn, raises serious challenges for estimating feed use.
There is discrepancy, between insituttions, on corn production and demand in Indonesia. Besides corn
production data, other feed ingredients data such as rice bran obtained from paddy production and use of
cassava for feed can be difficult to estimate. Inconsistencies are also found in figures for poultry production,
especially for broilers. The official data from Directorate General of Animal Production and Health,
Ministry Agriculture for the last 3 years is significantly different from production data collected by the
poultry industries associations, which derives its data from industries.

Feed ingredients demand, including that of corn, can be estimated using spread sheet models, with the
calculations able to predict corn demand based on animal numbers for different species, stage of production
and feeding systems, including aquaculture. When corn demand for feed is added with corn for seed, for food
(mainly for coffee mixture) and for industrial use (dry and wet mill processing), total corn demand for
Indonesia can be accurately estimated. Generally, estimate of corn demand based on utilization would be
better estimates rather than calculated from corn supply. Corn demand in Indonesia for 2010 to 2013 is
presented in Table 11.
Table 11. Estimated corn demand in Indonesia 2010-2013
Corn Demand for 2010 2011 2012 2013*

Feed use 4,701,406 5,418,554 5,843,166 7,390,736

Food in dry milling 75,000 90,000 108,000 108,000

Food in wet milling

36
 150,000 150,000 150,000 180,000

Coffee substitute N/A N/A 4,500 5,000

Seed 35,000 35,000 40,000 40,000

Total corn demand (feed, food, seed and industry) 4,961,406 5,693,554 6,145,666 7,723,736

Corn import 1,553,000 3,075,000 1,538,000 3,000,000

*Predicted

Recommendations for future work:

1. Accurate animal production and population data (especially for poultry and aquatic animals)
should be collected from the industries in timely manner and the data should be used to estimate
feed ingredient demand in Indonesia. As other animal production systems become more
intensive, the feed demand estimation process should include those species.
2. Local feed production, in particular for corn, should be measured more accurately using
systematic surveys, supported by advance technologies (Global Positioning System, Remote
Sensing). These technologies can be used to develop more accurate and timely data on area and
production.
3. Discrepancies between various institutions should be resolved through adapting similar
methodologies. This data should be released and validated by data users and used by
Indonesian Government for future sector planning and policy formulation.

37
References

Aho, P., 2007. World Poultry Perspective. Proc. 4th Southeast Asia US Agricultural Co-operators
Conference, ASA IM, Singapore

CBS, 2012c. Statistic of Poultry Enterprises in 2010 and 2011. Central Board of Statistic,
Jakarta

CBS, 2013a. Food Crop Production: 2012 data were preliminary data. Central Board of
Statistic, Jakarta

CBS, 2013b. Statistical Yearbook of Indonesia 2012. Central Board of Statistic, Jakarta
Slette, J and S. Meylinah (2013) Indonesian Grains and Feed Annual Report. GAIN Report Number:
ID 1813, FAS US Embassy, Jakarta.

Hutasuhut, M., B. Tangendjaja, Dahlanuddin, N.D. Purwantari and D. B. Utomo. 2013. Indonesia Country
Report. Report presented at FAO Regional Workshop on Animal Feed Resources and their Management in
the Asia-Pacific Region. Bangkok, 13-15 August 2013

DGLAH, 2012. Livestock and Animal Health Statistic 2012. Directorate General of Livestock and
Animal Health, Ministry of Agriculture, Jakarta

Pusdatin (2012) Marine and Fisheries Statistics 2011. Center of Data and Statistics and Information.
Ministry of Fisheries and Marine Affairs. Jakarta

USGC (2013) Feed and Livestock Statistic Indonesia. (unpublished)

38
Annex :List of contacts

1. Dr. Maradoli Hutasuhut, Directorate General of Livestock and Animal Health Services, Ministry of
Agriculture, Jl. Harsono Rm No 3 Pasar Minggu, Livestock Gedung C Lt.6 Jakarta Selatan,
phone/fax: +62217815686 (office), mobile: +628161626680 email:
maradoli_hutasuhut@yahoo.com maradoli@deptan.go.id
2. Dr. Desianto Budi Utomo, Secretary General of Indonesian Feedmill Association, Ruko Taman
Laguna Cibubur,Jl. Alternatif No. 112, Cibubur - Cileungsi, Bekasi 17425 - Jawa Barat Tel/Fax:
(021) 84590227
3. Mr. Krissantono and Chandra Gunawan, Chairman and Secretary of Indonesian Poultry
Breeders Association, Mangga Dua Square Rukan Blok E No. 23,. Jl. Gunung Sahari Raya No.
1. Jakarta 14430 Telp.: (021) 62317902 Fax. : (021) 62317914 Email :
gppupusat_jakarta@yahoo.com
4. Mr. Ali Abdi, Agriculture Councilor US Embassy Foreign Agriculture Service, USDA, 7th
Floor, Sarana Jaya Building, Jl. Budi Kemuliaan I, Jakarta 10110
5. Ms. Meylinah Sugiarti, Agriculture Specialist, Foreign Agriculture Service, USDA, 7th Floor,
Sarana Jaya Building, Jl. Budi Kemuliaan I, Jakarta 10110
6. Mr. Eddy Wiyono, Food Specialist, Foreign Agriculture Service, USDA, 7th Floor, Sarana Jaya
Building, Jl. Budi Kemuliaan I, Jakarta 10110
7. Mr. Hartono, Chairman Market Information Center, Bogor.
8. Mr. Handiman, Feed Specialist, US Soybean Export Council, Wisma Mitra Sunter, #201 Blok
C-2 Boulevard Mitra Sunter Jl Yos Sudarso Kav. 89, Jakarta 14350, Indonesia Phone:
62-21-6514752 Fax: 62-21-6514753 E-mail: asagrain@indosat.net.id

Excel Calculator for predicting feed ingredients demand in Indonesia

Data input requirement is in yellow color cell, while the result on feed ingredients demand is in row
no 42.

39
Appendix Tables: 1-14
Appendix 1. Livestock population 2008 2012 (000 head)
growth
Year rate (%)

Animal Species 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 *) 2007-2011

RUMINANT

Beef Cattle 12.257 12.760 13.582 14.824 16.034 6.53

Dairy Cattle 458 475 488 597 622 12.81

Buffalo 1.931 1.933 2.000 1.305 1.378 9.65

Goat 15.147 15.815 16.620 16.946 17.862 4.03

Sheep 9.605 10.199 10.725 11.791 12.768 5.56

NON RUMINANT

Pig 6.838 6.975 7.477 7.525 7.831 2.93

Horse 393 399 419 409 422 0.53

Rabbit 748 887 834 760 794

POULTRY

Native Chicken 243.423 249.963 257.544 264.340 285.227 0.56

Layer 107.955 111.418 105.210 124.636 130.539 3.23

Broiler 902.052 1.026.379 986.872 1.177.991 1.266.903 7.62

Duck 39.840 40.676 44.302 43.488 46.990 5.06

Quail 6.683 7.543 7.054 7.357 7.841 2.67

Pigeon 1.499 1.815 490 1.209 1.334

Note: *) Preliminary figures

Source: 2012 Livestock and Animal Health Statistic (DGLAH, 2012)

40
Appendix 2. Broiler population by province 2008-2012

Year

No Province 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 *)

1 Aceh 1.346.308 1.836.413 2.028.221 3.085.271 3.301.240

2 North Sumatera 42.891.621 43.063.188 45.154.980 40.167.721 40.770.237

3 West Sumatera 14.202.592 13.495.318 14.946.984 15.117.321 15.247.418

4 Riau 30.679.920 29.710.959 41.501.411 38.043.692 39.761.110

5 Jambi 6.910.116 10.655.107 11.226.605 11.237.263 12.090.000

6 South Sumatera 13.747.390 11.751.130 20.397.910 20.160.062 27.653.715

7 Bengkulu 5.423.379 5.874.583 6.449.002 6.189.874 6.790.292

8 Lampung 15.879.617 24.087.464 24.203.461 25.788.858 28.348.571

Bangka
9 Belitung 5.213.835 5.309.164 7.145.828 7.418.210 7.789.117

10 Riau islands 6.878.886 6.437.755 6.600.275 6.675.518 6.720.644

11 DKI Jakarta 68.000 137.100 132.200 136.200 139.827

12 West Java 417.373.596 455.258.895 497.814.154 583.263.441 664.210.459

13 Central Java 54.643.212 58.350.965 64.332.799 66.239.700 55.621.113

14 D I Yogyakarta 5.128.488 5.276.897 5.435.521 5.770.832 5.898.485

15 East Java 140.005.968 147.006.266 56.993.631 149.552.720 148.520.806

16 Banten 40.011.606 80.023.212 41.146.851 52.272.333 57.813.200

17 Bali 4.975.477 5.263.645 5.404.657 6.206.641 6.252.569

West Nusa

18 Tenggara 1.339.495 1.787.163 3.044.243 3.279.246 3.538.158

East Nusa
19 Tenggara 244.101 105.635 105.913 578.810 582.688

West
20 Kalimantan 18.917.875 16.041.090 17.634.089 21.262.386 12.215.350

Central
21 Kalimantan 3.976.233 4.240.068 4.669.198 4.921.209 5.160.336

South

22 Kalimantan 19.860.813 28.659.441 39.947.496 43.647.767 44.191.064

East

23 Kalimantan 26.941.660 39.485.000 38.993.063 36.510.354 38.446.552

24 North Sulawesi 1.623.420 2.654.090 1.218.390 1.556.974 1.634.823

Central

25 Sulawesi 4.213.929 5.784.910 5.172.902 5.136.202 5.906.633

41
 26 South Sulawesi 14.575.840 16.373.046 17.928.549 18.497.399 22.476.920

South East
27 Sulawesi 957.715 996.406 1.185.021 1.045.428 1.208.804

28 Gorontalo 1.347.640 1.347.640 1.226.142 240.600 526.135

29 West Sulawesi 67.105 1.258.854 423.743 867.008 902.097

30 Maluku 119.887 127.787 136.208 145.684 130.490

31 North Maluku 129.352 925.933 952.878 79.458 251.186

32 West Papua 891.610 529.296 557.884 648.876 441.971

33 Papua 1.465.732 2.524.160 2.761.502 2.247.811 2.360.708

INDONESIA 902.052.418 1.026.378.580 986.871.712 1.177.990.869 1.266.902.718

Note : *) Preliminary figures

Source: 2012 Livestock and Animal Health Statistic (DGLAH, 2012)

42
Appendix 3: Layer population by province 2008-2012
Year
No Province 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 *)

1 Aceh 181.887 232.364 221.242 267.741 286.215

2 North Sumatera 7.698.504 7.702.353 8.350.030 8.994.445 9.070.899

3 West Sumatera 6.684.013 7.203.319 7.801.317 7.816.396 7.847.933

4 Riau 592.404 695.262 151.577 141.258 217.132

5 Jambi 492.804 508.961 631.048 613.872 621.873

6 South Sumatera 5.051.050 5.144.080 5.400.690 5.872.442 6.275.232

7 Bengkulu 43.903 52.845 60.810 63.130 71.495

8 Lampung 3.327.847 3.495.577 4.419.062 4.526.690 6.016.408

9 Bangka Belitung 163.802 163.359 76.953 64.401 67.620

10 Riau islands 450.803 506.129 548.792 558.890 559.527

11 DKI Jakarta - - - - -

12 West Java 10.303.478 10.403.803 11.252.390 11.930.515 12.079.206

13 Central Java 15.569.127 16.519.794 17.712.776 18.395.051 19.069.964

14 D I Yogyakarta 2.933.216 3.224.108 2.799.182 3.160.697 3.298.223

15 East Java 31.472.953 33.046.601 21.959.505 37.035.251 37.974.058

16 Banten 5.896.314 4.803.579 5.344.080 5.373.215 5.937.403

17 Bali 3.415.893 3.039.727 3.671.118 4.357.838 4.396.623

18 West Nusa Tenggara 104.169 106.983 164.439 149.410 160.181

19 East Nusa Tenggara 106.695 130.136 131.601 179.641 181.437

20 West Kalimantan 3.094.621 2.298.597 2.024.982 2.334.026 2.451.767

21 Central Kalimantan 42.024 56.999 64.417 15.574 33.719

22 South Kalimantan 2.665.721 2.924.394 2.765.257 2.631.075 2.709.092

23 East Kalimantan 745.727 1.370.150 1.228.666 1.342.572 1.369.423

24 North Sulawesi 747.264 836.084 895.822 973.395 1.022.065

25 Central Sulawesi 390.888 434.892 394.741 470.416 522.292

26 South Sulawesi 5.185.362 5.971.926 6.458.425 6.754.136 7.443.585

27 South East Sulawesi 131.737 166.043 188.083 182.171 275.133

28 Gorontalo 227.421 201.035 202.971 132.950 287.075

29 West Sulawesi 15.090 8.230 53.860 78.727 78.318

30 Maluku 20.524 25.743 27.440 33.499 35.707

31 North Maluku 13.962 28.282 28.910 32.331 17.311

32 West Papua 129.719 58.613 64.086 64.238 64.879

33 Papua 56.248 57.669 115.790 89.801 97.643

INDONESIA 107.955.170 111.417.637 105.210.062 124.635.794 130.539.437

43
 Note : *) Preliminary figures

Source: 2012 Livestock and Animal Health Statistic (DGLAH, 2012)

Appendix 4. Improvement of broiler performance in the world since 1975.

Year 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008 2013
Market age
(day) 56 53 49 48 47 46 44 42 42
Feed : gain 2.1 2.05 2 2 1.95 1.95 1.9 1.76 1.71
Market weight
(kg) 1.71 1.78 1.90 1.98 2.12 2.28 2.38 2.63 2.71
Source: US Poultry till 2008, while 2013 from Cobb 500 Performance

44
Appendix 5. Feed utilization is affected by age
Age Weight Daily Daily Feed Cumulative Cumulative Feed
(days) (g) Gain (g) Consumption Feed Conversion Ratio
(g) Consumption
(g)
22 964 73 109 1162 1.205
23 1039 75 116 1278 1.230
24 1115 76 123 1401 1.257
25 1193 78 130 1531 1.283
26 1272 79 137 1668 1.311
27 1353 81 144 1812 1.339
28 1436 83 151 1963 1.367
29 1521 85 158 2121 1.394
30 1608 87 165 2286 1.422
31 1697 89 172 2458 1.448
32 1788 91 179 2637 1.475
33 1880 92 186 2823 1.502
34 1973 93 193 3016 1.529
35 2067 94 200 3216 1.556
36 2162 95 202 3418 1.581
37 2257 95 203 3621 1.604
38 2352 95 205 3826 1.627
39 2447 95 206 4032 1.648
40 2542 95 208 4240 1.668
41 2637 95 209 4449 1.687
42 2732 95 210 4659 1.705

Source: Cobb500 Broiler Performance and Nutrition Supplement (2012)

Appendix 6. Performance standard for brown layer (ISA strain, 2013)

18-90
Laying period weeks
Livability % 94
Age at 50% production days 144
Peak percentage % 96

45
Average egg weight g 62.9
Egg number hen housed 409
Egg mass hen housed kg 25.7
Average feed consumption per day g 111
Feed conversion kg/kg 2.15
Body weight g 2015

46
Appendix 7. Volume of aquaculture production by major commodity, 2007 2011
Average
Increase
Year (%)
COMMODITY 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007-2011
Shrimp 360096 409590 338061 380971 400386 3.52
Grouper 8035 5005 8791 10398 10580 14.49
Nile tilapia 206904 291030 323389 464192 567078 29.37
Common carp 264349 242323 249279 282695 332206 6.36
Milk fish 263139 277471 328288 421757 467449 15.77
Seaperch
/Barramundi 4418 4371 6400 5738 5236 6.57
Pangasius cat fish 36755 102021 109685 147888 229267 68.74
Cat fish 91735 114370 144755 242811 337577 39.50
Giant gouramy 35708 36636 46254 56889 64252 16.20
Mud crab 6631 7642 7516 9557 8153 6.51
Shell 15623 19662 15857 58079 48449 64.04
Seaweed 1728475 2145060 2963556 3915017 5170201 31.61
Other 173167 200014 166734 281932 288129 17.54
TOTAL 3195036 3855195 4708567 6277923 7928962 25.61

Source: Pusdatin (2012) Marine and Fisheries Statistic.

47
Appendix 8. Volume of aquaculture production by province, 2007 2011
Average Increase (%)

PROVINCE YEAR
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007-2011 2010-2011
TOTAL 3 193 565 3 855 206 4 708 564 6 277 925 7 928 962 25.62 26.30
SUMATERA 508 754 625 582 597 043 698 229 845 459 14.11 21.09
Aceh 35 667 42 824 38 048 46 811 34 451 1.39 -26.40
North Sumatera
53 410 97 583 97 147 119 106 125 607 27.58 5.46
West Sumatera
55 607 97 545 84 260 102 617 131 554 27.95 28.20
Riau

Jambi 28 861 29 950 38 897 44 383 61 337 21.49 38.20

South Sumatera
17 638 21 202 25 620 31 905 34 369 18.32 7.72
Bengkulu
111 869 130 478 184 796 217 397 291 375 27.48 34.03
Lampung
Bangka Belitung 9 427 13 342 14 182 18 628 33 806 40.16 81.48

J A V A 730 950 866 815 1 150 546 1 609 959 1 824 260 26.14 13.31
Riau islands 189 980 186 158 106 990 98 074 119 228 -7.83 21.57
DKI Jakarta 5 779 6 401 2 909 50 365 34 142 388.84 -32.21
903 1 502 2 077 2 490 6 474 71.15 160.01
West Java 391 568 435 549 442 012 622 961 695 104 16.31 11.58
5 394 4 998 5 026 16 818 7 257 42.75 -56.85
Central Java 114 007 132 593 144 650 175 995 242 865 21.27 38.00

D.I. Yogyakarta 11 949 14 741 17 682 39 582 44 542 44.93 12.53

173 315 238 754 507 790 634 279 715 865 47.05 12.86
East Java
BALI - NUSA 764 263 959 979 823 920 672 171 880 180 5.99 30.95

TENGGARA 34 332 38 777 35 503 86 777 91 741 38.66 5.72

Banten
B a l i 156 494 136 287 141 384 107 495 119 371 -5.52 11.05

West Nusa Tenggara 101 942 126 088 182 838 214 971 381 410 40.92 77.42

KALIMANTAN 116
505 776
827 114
697 234
604 148
499 847
698 262
349 899
705 310
379 365
399 30.70
-3.00 18.05
8.49
East Nusa Tenggara
West Kalimantan 9 268 14 891 15 205 27 200 29 972 37.97 10.19

Central Kalimantan 6 417 8 623 14 988 24 733 31 772 50.42 28.46

South Kalimantan 22 564 25 322 46 043 63 462 76 903 38.27 21.18

SULAWESI 1 050
78 432
527 1 240
65 705
398 1 915
72 660
611 2 683
147 136
504 3 354
171 454
718 34.40
28.47 25.02
16.42
East Kalimantan
North Sulawesi 20 907 23 364 26 127 75 287 151 549 78.26 101.29

Central Sulawesi 202 750 299 642 728 161 744 279 781 378 49.50 4.98

South Sulawesi 717 848 738 640 865 899 1 357 366 1 633 274 24.30 20.33

South East Sulawesi 93 205 150 047 217 800 404 123 647 836 63.00 60.31

MALUKU 10
22 234 16
47 879 52
72 331 72 531
281 100
714 103 87.90 38.49
Gorontalo - PAPUA 389 891 548 351 245 163.28 103.18
Maluku 17 836 37 380 53 110 275 754 612 505 173.25 122.12
5 489 12 133 25 342 29 800 40 315 70.70 35.29
West Sulawesi
North Maluku 1 546 1 908 2 950 51 690 67 799 440.35 31.16

West Papua 968 6 327 14 113 21 749 4 157 162.49 -80.88

48
Papua 2 039 2 276 2 375 2 338 29 784 297.08 173.90
 Source: Pusdatin (2012) Marine and Fisheries Statistic.

Appendix 9. Aquaculture area by type of aquaculture, 2007 2011 (ha)

Average
increase
YEAR (%)
TYPE OF AQUACULTURE 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007-2011
Marine Culture 36733 32761 43804 117650 169292 58.84
Brackish water pond 555925 618251 669738 674942 749220 7.83
Freshwater pond 106776 101813 153316 148278 126382 6.97
Cage 384 213 300 637 561 24.24
Floating Cage Net 674 666 1386 744 1294 33.63
Paddy field 121229 142621 127679 138715 151630 6.28
TOTAL 821720 896325 996223 1080966 1198379 9.90

Source: Pusdatin (2012) Marine and Fisheries Statistic.

Appendix 10. Number of aquaculture households by type of aquaculture, 2007 2011

Average
increase
YEAR (%)
TYPE OF
AQUACULTURE 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007-2011
Marine culture 88281 96038 119851 203298 163181 20.87
Brackish water pond 227783 219291 232543 256579 253795 2.89
Freshwater pond 724184 757915 759694 907062 848770 4.47
Cage 50241 56472 57556 65911 66375 7.39

49
 Floating net 22298 21847 27034 26705 31232 9.36
TOTAL 1338758 1359053 1380497 1667949 1575787 4.60

Source: Pusdatin (2012) Marine and Fisheries Statistic.

Appendix 11. Average size of aquaculture area per household, 2007-2011 (ha per household)

TYPE OF
AQUACULTURE 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Marine culture 0.416 0.341 0.365 0.5787 1.0374
Brackishwater pond 2.441 2.819 2.88 2.6305 2.9521
Freshwater pond 0.147 0.134 0.202 0.1635 0.1489
Cage 0.008 0.004 0.005 0.0097 0.0085
Floating net 0.03 0.03 0.051 0.0279 0.0414
TOTAL 0.091 0.105 0.092 0.0832 0.0962

Source: Pusdatin (2012) Marine and Fisheries Statistic.

Appendix 12. Estimated Compound feed production based on livestock and aqua in Indonesia

Livestock Feed* % increase Aqua Feed % increase

2009 9.7 0.955
2010 9.9 2 1.026 7.4
2011 11.2 13 1.101 7.3
2012 12.3 10 1.233 12.0

*Comprise: broiler, layer, breeder and other monogastric animals.

Source: Indonesian Feedmills Association (GPMT) reported by Hutasuhut et al. (2013) DGLAH

Appendix 13. Local feed ingredients production in Indonesia 2004-2012

Local
Feedstuff
Production 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
50
 (TMT)

Corn 6600 6800 7850 8500 8700 8300 6800 8100 9000
Cassava 19425 19321 19986 18950 20000 22376 23900 23464 24009
Soybean 937 808 747 592 775.7 974.5 908 870 934
Rice bran 4597 4603 4628 4849 5480 5246 5644 5557 5764
Palm Oil 11500 14000 15000 16400 18300 19700 20000 22000 23500
Rice paddy 54088 54151 54454 54729 55504 63840 66411 65385 65760
Copra meal 424 443 448 455 493 500 493 n/a n/a

Source: USGC (2013)

Appendix 14. Imported feed ingredients of animal origin, 2008 to 2012 (ton)

Feed ingredient 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Blood meal 5,095 2,968 5,297 7,159

Meat and bone meal 328,571 368,648 381,842 424,275 316,287

Hydrolyzed feather meal 60,110 57,338 52,894 50,974 44,066

Poultry by product meal 96,162 114,915 93,717 144,902 323,606

Fish meal 7,688 3,177 96 - -

Fish oil 97 504 38 - -

Source: Hutasuhut et al. (2013) DGLAH

51