Professional Documents
Culture Documents
September 2012
Peninsular Malaysia Electricity Demand Supply Outlook for
20 years
Way Forward
2
Peninsular Malaysia Electricity
Demand Supply Outlook For 20
Years
3
Malaysian GDP for the first
half of 2011 grew 4.8% y-o-y,
as compared to 9.5% y-o-y in
the corresponding period last
year.
4
5
Sales Growth Generation Growth Peak Demand Growth MW
Year
GWh % GWh % MW % Increase
2003 64,292 7.1% 73,795 7.1% 11,329 5.1% 546
2004 68,963 7.3% 79,022 7.1% 12,023 6.1% 694
2005 73,103 6.0% 83,303 5.4% 12,493 3.9% 470
HISTORICAL
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The plant up plan was based on an assumption of 2,000 MW capacity from
Sarawak Interconnection in 2021. If this does not materialise, the capacity
must be replaced by either coal, nuclear or LNG.
8
Generation Capacity by Fuel Type Energy Generated by Fuel Type
10
National Energy ENERGY National Green
Policy, 1979
Overall energy policy with RELATED Technology Policy
broad guidelines on long- 2010
term energy objectives
Green Technology shall be a
and strategies to ensure
driver to accelerate the
efficient, secure and
national economy and
environmentally
promote sustainable
sustainable supplies of
development.
energy.
12
Fuel Options for Generations
- Gas
13
Power Sector Gas Supply Agreement Volume
Volume
Plant Signed
(mmscfd)
The power sector (TNB and IPPs) has invested
GSP 113 22 September 1993
about RM 30 billion in gas-fired plants.
TNB 500 21 October 1994
Total capacity on gas is 12,207 MW
PD Power 102 27 May 1994
mmscfd is required for full operation of the Powertek 102 1 March 1994
1500
Energy
84%
1000 82%
79%
75%
71%
63%
Capacity
500
New plant up of more efficient plants will reduce consumption of fossil fuels
15
Hydro
Coal
Hydro
Coal
Oil
Gas
Oil
Gas
Turning points : oil crisis (1979), discovery of natural gas (1982), gas limitation by
PETRONAS (2002), severe gas shortage (2011) 16
Fuel Options for Generations
- Coal
17
Coal Plant Commissioning Date
Kapar U3 Manjung 3
160.00
Kapar U4 Tg Bin 1
Northwest Europe
140.00
marker price Kapar U5 Tg Bin 2
Kapar U6 Tg Bin 3
120.00
Japan steam coal import
cif price Manjung 1 Jimah 1
100.00
Manjung 2 Jimah 2
80.00
Decision (-5 yrs)
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
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Notes Sites are available at
Existing Plant the existing coal plants
Potential Sites
Gertak Sanggul
(brownfield)
Janamanjung
3 x 690 MW Coal
Greenfield
Bagan Sungai
developments are
Tiang
KEV
2 x 300 MW Coal
going to be more
2 x 500 MW Coal
Bagan Sungai
Pulai
challenging
Jimah Power
2 x 700 MW Coal
Tanjung Ru
Tanjung Gabang
Kampung Titib
Need to secure
Tanjung Serai Tanjung Bin
additional transmission
3 x 700 MW Coal
19
Copenhagen commitment on
carbon emission intensity
reduction of 40% by 2020
Carbon Emission (tCO2/MWh)
1
Potential international 0.9
0.7
emission in the future
0.6
0.5
0.3
plants are subjected to
0.2
stringent Environmental 0.1
codes and regulations 0
Gas CC Coal Nuclear
Other countries such as China, India, Japan, Korea are also looking at Indonesia for coal supply.
21
Australian Thermal Coal Price 1981-2011
23
MAIN STEAM TEMPERATURE 600 oC
EFFICIENCY 40 %
Total reduction = 60gCO2/kWh
REDUCTION ON CO2 Reduction is equivalent to 1.2 ton
EMISSION CO2/MWh per day at 85% dispatch
capacity factor
24
SALIENT FEATURES SUBCRITICAL ULTRA-SUPERCRITICAL
25
Fuel Options for Generations
- Indigenous Hydro
26
All large hydro potential in Peninsula are utilized except for Lebir and Nenggiri.
Hydro is very much under the control of the State Governments.
Developing new hydro projects requires strong support from the State Governments
and is not as easy as before.
TERENGGANU
1.Hulu Terengganu; 250MW (2015)
PAHANG
1.Ulu Jelai; 372MW (2016)
2.Tekai; 156MW
3.Telom; 132MW
4.Raub-Bentong; 70MW
PERAK
1.Sg. Pelus; 35MW
2.Kerian-Selama; 21MW
KELANTAN
1.Lebir (multipurpose); 270MW
2.Nenggiri (multipurpose); 416MW
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Solar Biomass Biogas Mini-Hydro Solid Waste
Potential/Issues
Potential/Issue Potential Potential Potential
~1,340 MW by
~6,500 MW (for ~410 MW by ~490 MW by ~360 MW by
2030
40% buildings) Supply security 2028 2020 2022
Land, cloud, cost ~21,000 tonnes of
Status Status Status waste collected
Status 39 MW under 4.45 MW under 30.3 MW under every day in Msia
1 MW construction as of construction as of construction as of
MBIPV Projects July 2009 July 2009 July 2009 Status
(SURIA 1000, Biogen Project, Palm Oil Mill Run-of-river 5.5 MW
palm oil waste, Effluent (POME), scheme with commissioned as
demo/showcase
other waste livestock, agro, minimum of August 2009
projects etc.)
(woodchips, paddy industrial waste impounding
husks etc.)
31
PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA
YUNNAN
Existing Interconnection
9 Peninsular Malaysia Singapore
11
Peninsular Malaysia - Thailand
10
14
13
CAMBODIA Possible Interconnection
12
INDONESIA
Garuda Sakti
34
A lot of countries are having a second look at the nuclear option Germany,
Switzerland, Italy, Thailand, due to the recent incident in Fukushima, Japan
Others are forging ahead with caution, re-evaluating their existing plants
Construction works will take 5-7 years, the tasks mentioned above are required
before we can start construction. Making Malaysia nuclear ready is essential
36
Malaysias future generation capacity investment choices
depend on: Malaysias future generation capacity
investment choices depend on:
1. Malaysias overall energy security policy,
2. Malaysias willingness to rely on imported fuel
resources (e.g. Sarawak interconnection) and
37
Thank you
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