Aerospace and Transportation / Brazil Initiation of Coverage

ALL Neutral
ALLL11 Target Price - YE09
R$ 11.50

Indicators 04/28/09 Main Multiples 2009e 2010e 2011e Factor Analysis

Last Price - (R$) 10.88 P/E (x) 22.8 14.7 10.9 Corp. Gov. N2
Potential Return (%) 5.7 EV/EBITDA (x) 7.2 6.2 5.5 Tag Along (%) 100%
52 - Week (High) 24.38 EV/Sales (x) 3.7 3.3 2.9 Sector Outlook Positive
52 - Week (Low) 6.49 EBITDA Growth (%) 17 16 14 Financial Health Positive
Market Cap (R$ mn) 7,080 EBITDA Margin (%) 51 53 53 # of Shares (mn) 576
Traded Volume* 37,999 ROE (%) 11 14 17 Free Float (%) 63%

Much Potential. Lack of Results

We are initiating coverage of America Latina Logstica (ALL), the largest Latin Marcus Macedo
mmacedo@banifib.com.br
American logistics company, with a Neutral recommendation and YE09 target
(55 11) 3074 4546
price of R$ 11.5. Although the company has a solid business model, top quality
management team and a compelling long-term story, we think that (i) the rich Francisco Sequeira
valuation (ii) the challenging year ahead and (iii) the lack of short-term research@banifib.com.br
catalysts should hold back ALL shares relative to the market for the next 12 (55 11) 3074 8061
months.

Lower Multiples Justified

At our YE09 Target Price of R$ 11.5, ALL offers an 8.5% upside potential to
current price levels, and would trade at 27.9x PE 09, a 132% premium to its
US peers. ALL is expected to post strong EBITDA growth rates, but it began ALLxIbovespa(base=100)
2009 disappointingly in terms of growth (EBITDA +5% YoY). In light of the ALLL11 IBOV

current PE 09 premium over peers and the unlikelihood of ALL over-delivering 130
120
results this year we remain neutral on the stock. 110
100
Market Share Gains Are Not Easy 90
80
70
We remain cautious about the ability of ALL to sustain volume growth through
60
market share gains and to sustain yields. The company has repeatedly under- 50
40
delivered on growth (in 1Q09 it posted numbers again below guidance) in a 30
May-08

Jul-08

Mar-09
Apr-08

Jun-08

Aug-08

Sep-08

Oct-08

Nov-08

Dec-08

Jan-09

Feb-09

Apr-09

market in where its share is low, which could suggest that for it to gain more,
the company would have to reduce yields, suggesting a downside to the
Source: Bloomberg and Banif-Ixe Securities Research.
investors consensus long term estimates. * Average daily trading volume in the last 90 days (mn).

To Sell or Not to Sell

ALL has a rock-solid business model, top quality management team and
superior growth rates compared to peers, which turns it into a compelling long-
term story. Although we do not think it should over-deliver and positively
surprise the market in 2009 (in fact, to achieve its guidance for the year seems
to be challenging enough), we think the stock should perform with the market
this year in the case of an improvement in risk perception from investors.

Main Risks to Our Rating

Higher than expected volume growth and higher than expected yields figure
are the main risks to the upside. Among the main risks to the downside we
highlight (i) any reduction in diesel prices, which could increase
competitiveness for trucks and thus push ALLs yields down, (ii) miss their
guidance of volume or yields growth or investments once again.

Please refer to the end the report to analyst and firm disclosure April, 29, 2009
Amrica Latina Logstica - ALL

Investment Thesis
We initiate coverage of ALL with a Neutral rating. Although the stock has underperformed Ibovespa, we think the
challenging scenario, coupled to the rich valuation and the absence of short-term catalysts, offers limited upside for
its shares relatively to the Bovespa Index.

ALL (America Latina Logistica) is the largest railway logistics operator in Latin America and it has the monopoly of
21,300 km of railway network in Brazil and Argentina, which encompasses a region responsible for 75% of Brazilian
GPD and 78% of total agricultural commodity production in Brazil and serves the four largest ports in Brazil. It also
operates 21,000 km of railway in Argentina that connects with its network in Brazil. Below we highlight the main
points that support our rating.

Main Investment Points

Most and Possibly the only Liquid Agribusiness Play: ALL is the most liquid stock in the transport sector, and
has 70% of its revenues linked to the Agribusiness sector in Brazil, which turns ALL into one of the most liquid
agribusiness plays. ALL trades at 7x EV/EBITDA 09E, which represents a 15% discount to the main agribusiness
listed company. Relative to AB names, ALL appears as a cheaper and more defensive option to play the
agribusiness sector growth in Brazil and infrastructure deficit.

Sustainable Competitive Advantages: ALL has the monopoly to operate the main railway to the four largest
exporting ports in Brazil. Its network serves an area responsible for 75% of National GDP and 78% of total
agricultural commodities production in Brazil. The company still has low market share, with most of the export
cargo transported by trucks.

Compelling Long Term Story: There is still plenty of room to grow considering only market share gains. From all
soy, corn and sugar exported through the ports, ALL serves all, and still has less than a 50% market share.
Considering that it could reach 80% of those markets, it could sustain double-digit volume growth rates over the
next 5 years. In addition, it has an even lower market share in the industrial segment.

Main Investment Risks

Rich Valuation Compared to Peers: ALL indeed has superior EBITDA Growth Rates compared to its peers.
However, it already trades at considerably higher multiples. ALL trades at 25.8x PE 09 and at 7x EV/EBITDA 09,
which compares to 11.1x PE 09 and 6.3x EV/EBITDA 09 of its US peers. Although we believe the premium is
justified by superior growth rates, the market has already priced much of this in. Moreover, the company depends
on keeping this growth rate at the same EBITDA margin. However, the company has recently revised down its
guidance for the second time in terms of growth, raising doubts, at least to us, about the sustainability of the
double-digit growth rates with the same historical margins.

Downside Risk on Yields: As important as volume growth are yields and, based on recent history, we fear that in
order to increase its market share and double-digit volume growth ALL might have to reduce its yields. We also
believe that the possibility of a reduction in diesel prices in Brazil also offers a downside risk to our estimates.
Domestic diesel prices have a significant premium over international prices and the more oil prices remain below U$
60/bbl the more likely is to have diesel prices going down this year. In addition, although we see as positive the
contract with Rumo Logistica to anticipate growth, we think that to pay back its investments Rumo Logistica should
demand a very large discount in tariffs, which could reduce consolidated yields.

Absence of Triggers in a Challenging Year: Despite our belief that one should analyze ALL with a long-term
perspective, our rating targets the next 12M relative to Ibovespa. Therefore, we think it is unlikely for ALL to post
better than expected results in this challenging year, considering the main catalysts for the stock in the short term.

Please refer to the end the report to analyst and firm disclosure Banif Ixe - April 29, 2009 | 2
Amrica Latina Logstica - ALL

Valuation
We initiate coverage of ALL (Bovespa: ALLL11) with a Neutral rating relative to Ibovespa, and a DCF-derived YE09
target price of R$ 11.50. In our valuation model we use 10.5% nominal US$ WACC to discount the rate for our 5-
year financial forecast and assume 0.5% real growth in perpetuity.

DCF WACC Scenario

Perpetuity Risk Free Rate 3.0%

R$ mn 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E Value Market Risk Premium 5.5%
Net Revenues 2,810 3,114 3,466 3,880 4,081 (Re)Levered Beta 0.9
EBITDA 1,412 1,609 1,803 2,041 2,160 Country Risk (Brazil) 5.0%
EBITDA Margin 50.3% 51.7% 52.0% 52.6% 52.9% Cost of Capital 12.5%
D/(D+C) 30.0%
Working Capital 52 45 50 30 33 Cost of Debt after Taxes 5.9%
Capex** 973 1,116 1,067 1,113 1,213 WACC (USD) 10.5%
Taxes 286 314 349 399 414 Source: Banif-Ixe Research
FCF 205 223 437 559 565 13,493

Firm Value 9,909

Net Debt 3,172

DCF Equity Value R$ 6,737

Target Price
R$/Unit 11.5
Source: Banif-Ixe Research

Sensitivity Analysis
Average Volume Growth Rate and WACC: Our base case scenario assumes an average volume growth of 10%
per year over the next 4 years, which we then reduce to 3% per year. Our analysis suggests that each 1% higher
volume growth per year over next 4 years would add 7% to our YE09 TP and each 1% lower WACC would add
25%. We highlight that this sensitivity analysis assumes everything else constant, and higher volumes could lead to
higher operating margin, thus increasing our TP.

Sensitivity Analysis to Volume Growth Rate

4 yr CAGR Growth (g)
8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0%
8.5% 16.1 17.2 18.3 19.5 20.7
9.5% 12.6 13.4 14.4 15.3 16.4
WACC 10.5% 10.0 10.7 11.5 12.3 13.2
11.5% 8.0 8.6 9.3 10.0 10.8
12.5% 6.4 7.0 7.6 8.2 8.9
Source: Banif-Ixe Research

Perpetuity Growth Rate: As we mentioned before, our base case scenario assumes a 3% US$ nominal growth
rate and 10.5% nominal US$ WACC. According to our model, each 1% higher growth rate would add 20% to our
TP.

Sensitivity Analysis to Perpetuity Growth

Perpetuity Growth (g)
1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%
8.5% 12.7 15.1 18.3 23.0 30.4
9.5% 10.3 12.1 14.4 17.5 22.0
WACC 10.5% 8.5 9.8 11.5 13.7 16.7
11.5% 7.0 8.0 9.3 10.9 13.1
12.5% 5.8 6.6 7.6 8.8 10.4
Source: Banif-Ixe Research

Please refer to the end the report to analyst and firm disclosure Banif Ixe - April 29, 2009 | 3
Amrica Latina Logstica - ALL

Multiples Analysis
ALL Vs International Peers
P/E EPS Growth* EV/EBITDA EBITDA Growth*
US Rails Ticker 2009E 2010E CAGR 09E-10E 2009E 2010E CAGR 09E-10E
Burlington Northern Santa Fe BNI 12.2 10.4 -1.9% 6.1 5.6 0.3%
CSX CSX 12.5 11.5 3.9% 7.7 7.3 6.4%
Canadian National Railway CNI 11.0 9.7 5.6% 6.6 6.1 9.0%
Canadian Pacific Railway CP 9.8 8.7 -6.5% 5.6 5.2 -2.3%
Norfolk Southern NSC 9.9 8.8 -6.0% 5.9 5.6 -3.5%
Union Pacific UNP 11.2 9.7 -0.3% 5.9 5.4 0.9%

Average 11.1 9.8 -0.9% 6.3 5.9 1.8%

ALL ALLL11 25.8 18.3 28.7% 7.0 6.2 12.6%
Premium/(Discount) to Peers 132% 87% 11% 6%
Source: Banif-Ixe Research and Bloomberg

In terms of multiples ALL trades at 25.8x PE 09E and 7x EV/EBITDA 09E, which represents a 132% premium to its
US peers in terms of PE 09. Although ALL has superior growth rates and, when adjusted for growth, multiples are
not that expensive, as we can see below ALL has over-performed its US peers significantly over the past weeks.
Although we think this is justified by its superior growth, we think the current premium already reflects it. At our
target price, ALL would trade at a 150% premium in terms of PE 09 and an 11% premium in terms of EV/EBITDA
09 over US peers, and yet the upside would be limited relative to the market.

Price Performance - ALL VS CSX (Base 100) EV/Fwd EBITDA - ALL

130 15
120 14
13
110
12
100
11
90 10
80 9
70 8

60 7
6
50
5
40 4
1/2 1/17 2/1 2/16 3/3 3/18 4/2 4/17 3
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09
ALL CSX
ALL Average +1 Std -1 Std

Source: Banif-Ixe Research and Bloomberg Source: Banif-Ixe Research and Bloomberg

P/E - ALL VS CSX and BNI EV/Fwd EBITDA - ALL VS CSX and BNI

15
79
74
14
69 13
64 12
59 11
54
10
49
44 9
39 8
34 7
29 6
24 5
19
14
4
9 3
4 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09
Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09

ALL ALL Avg +1 Std -1 Std CSX BNI

ALL ALL Avg +1 Std -1 Std CSX BNI

Source: Banif-Ixe Research and Bloomberg Source: Banif-Ixe Research and Bloomberg

Please refer to the end the report to analyst and firm disclosure Banif Ixe - April 29, 2009 | 4
Amrica Latina Logstica - ALL

ALL VS Transport Names

Comparing ALLs performance to other transport names, it has underperformed most, which might explain the
recent over-performance, not to mention that it is has greater liquidity than the other options in the transport
sector. ALL trades R$ 60 m a day, which is more than all the other transport stocks together. However, we think
that current prices already price in the higher liquidity and the current upside is limited compared to the market.
Moreover, in the case of a reduction in risk aversion over this year, less liquid names should post better
performance.

Price Performance - ALL VS Log In (Base 100) Price Performance - ALL VS CCR (Base 100)

140 140
120 120
100 100

80 80

60 60

40 40

20 20

0 0
Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09
ALL Log In ALL CCR

Source: Banif-Ixe Research and Bloomberg Source: Banif-Ixe Research and Bloomberg

ALL VS Agribusiness Names

Since 70% of its revenues link to agricultural commodities transportation, one may see ALL as an agribusiness play.
Comparing its multiples to other Agribusiness companies listed in Bovespa, ALL has a more resilient business model
and the stock is definitely more liquid. However, it has underperformed the sector. ALL trades at 6.2x EV/EBITDA
09, which compares to 8.4x for SLC Agricola, the main name in the agribusiness sector in Brazil. In the current
challenging scenario for agribusiness in Brazil, ALL stands out as one cheap option compared to AB names.

Price Performance - ALL VS SLC (Base 100)

180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09

ALL SLC
Source: Banif-Ixe Research and Bloomberg

Please refer to the end the report to analyst and firm disclosure Banif Ixe - April 29, 2009 | 5
Amrica Latina Logstica - ALL

Challenging Short Term with Long Term Story Still Intact

According to the latest Conab Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento - (Federal Dept. in Brazil Responsible for
Agribusiness) release, we can expect 2008/2009 grain production to be 4.7% lower than in 2007/2008, reaching
134.6 m tons. For Soy and Corn, the volumes should be 4.8% and 8.6% lower than in 2007/2008 or 57.2 m tons
and 50.3 m tons, respectively.

CONAB Grain Production Forecast

Production Preview 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th
Product 2008 oct/08 nov/08 dec/08 jan/09 fev/09 mar/09 apr/09
Soy 60,018 60,106 58,392 58,821 57,759 57,215 57,635 58,137 -3.1%
Corn 58,664 55,027 54,317 54,444 52,282 50,309 50,369 51,910 -11.5%
1st Corn 39,976 37,240 36,954 37,023 34,861 32,888 33,129 33,874 -15.3%
Brasil 144,114 142,028 139,659 140,276 137,034 134,685 135,320 137,573 -4.5%
Source: BanifIxe and Conab

In response to the financial crisis, the company has cut its guidance for 2009. In order to preserve cash the
company reduced investments to R$ 600 mn from R$ 700 mn and trimmed volume growth to between 10 and 12%
from 12 to 14%. It is important to highlight that, although volume growth (Brazil operations only) in 2008 met
expectations, the 10.7% consolidated transported volume (Brazil + Argentina) growth missed the 12% to 14%
guidance of volume growth for 2008 (due to problems in Argentina and atypical grain sales in 2008, since producers
increased inventories waiting for better prices).

ALL Volume Forecast

CAGR
Million RTK 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 09-13E
Consolidated 38,203 41,796 46,022 50,699 55,876 57,649 8.6%
Growth % 10.8% 9.4% 10.1% 10.2% 10.2% 3.2%
Brasil 33,675 37,344 41,370 45,837 50,796 52,340 9.2%
Argentina 4,528 4,452 4,652 4,861 5,080 5,308 3.2%

Yields Growth
Gross Yield Agricultural Commodities 7.4% 0.7% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
Gross Yield Industrial Products 4.9% -2.0% 1.6% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
Argentina Yields Growth (R$ related) 18.3% 28.2% 0.8% -0.7% 5.6% 7.3%
Source: Banif-Ixe Research and Company Data

Please refer to the end the report to analyst and firm disclosure Banif Ixe - April 29, 2009 | 6
Amrica Latina Logstica - ALL

Financials
CAGR
Income Statement (R$ Million) 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 09-12E
Net revenues 2,515 2,810 3,114 3,466 3,880 11%
COGS -1,466 -1,752 -1,969 -2,193 -2,426 13%
Gross Profit 1,049 1,058 1,145 1,273 1,453 9%
Gross Margin 42% 38% 37% 37% 37%
SG&A -115 -134 -133 -147 -165 9%
EBITDA * 1,254 1,412 1,609 1,803 2,041 13%
EBITDA Margin * 50% 50% 52% 52% 53%
Net Financial Result -693 -603 -547 -495 -423 -12%
EBT 220 319 465 630 865 41%
Income Taxes -15 -79 -112 -151 -208 92%
Net Profit 205 240 354 479 658 34%
Net Margin 8% 9% 11% 14% 17% 20%

CAGR
Cash Flow 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 09-12E
EBITDA * 1,412 1,609 1,803 2,041 2,160 11%
(-) Taxes 286 314 349 399 414
(-) Working Capital Chg. -52 -45 -50 -30 -33
(-) Capex * 973 1,116 1,067 1,113 1,213
FCFF 205 223 437 559 565 29%

CAGR
Balance Sheet 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 09-12E
Cash 2,643 2,454 2,101 2,034 2,052
Accounts Receivable 154 162 180 201 225
Inventories 94 103 98 108 120
Others 430 322 333 360 392
Total LT Assets 779 779 779 779 779 0%
Total Permanent Assets 7,666 7,906 8,127 8,166 8,128 1%
Total Assets 11,765 11,726 11,619 11,648 11,696 0%
Total Current Liabilities 2,300 2,135 2,075 2,056 2,026 -3%
Short Term Debt 637 509 382 255 127
Suppliers 987 938 962 1,039 1,101
Other ST Liabilities 676 687 731 762 798
Total Non Current Liabilities 6,952 6,897 6,555 6,214 5,873 -4%
Long Term Debt 4,298 4,298 4,012 3,725 3,439 -5%
Other Non Current Liabilities 2,653 2,598 2,544 2,489 2,434
Shareholder Equity 2,495 2,676 2,969 3,360 3,778 11%
Total Liabilities and Shareholder Equity 11,765 11,726 11,619 11,648 11,696 0%
Source: Banif-Ixe Research, Company Data. * EBITDA and Capex assume changes of IFRS standards

Please refer to the end the report to analyst and firm disclosure Banif Ixe - April 29, 2009 | 7
Amrica Latina Logstica - ALL

Analyst Disclaimer and Important Report Disclosures:

The analysts mentioned in this report hereby certify that: 1) all of the views accurately reflect his or her personal views about any or all of the
subject securities or issuers; 2) no part of any of the analysts compensation is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific
recommendations or views expressed by the analyst(s) in this research; and 3) they do not hold securities issued by the company (ies)
mentioned in this report that exceed 5% of their assets.

Investment ratings are a function of Banif Securities and Ixe Casa de Bolsas expectations of a relative return to the expected performance of
the main index of the country of origin. Ratings are: Buy for stocks viewed as having an upside 500 bps higher than the expected performance
of the index; a Neutral for stocks expected to have an upside between -500 bps and +500 bps to the expected performance of the index and;
Sell for those stocks expected to have a performance 500 bps below the expected performance of the index. It is important to note that a
recommendation may differ from the rating system when the analyst believes that the stock may reach the appreciation / depreciation in the
very short term.

Rating Coverage Banking Relationship Last 12 Months

BUY 51.0% 2.0%
NEUTRAL 21.0% 0%
SELL 28.0% 0%

Banif CVC and Ixe Casa de Bolsa are not currently having any investment banking or other business connections with the company (ies)
mentioned in this report, however, investors should bear in mind that it is seeking or will seek to do so at any time and may receive
compensation for services provided or have commercial relations with the company(ies) analyzed in this report, or with individuals, legal
entities, funds, trusts or estates that act representing the same interest as the company(ies).

Banif CVC and IXE Casa de Bolsa, and/or its officers, directors, or shareholders, may from time to time have long or short positions in the
financial instruments of the company mentioned in this document, or may serve in an advisory capacity with respect to such instruments.

This document is for information purposes only and was made by Banif CVC and Ixe Casa de Bolsa. Under no circumstances should this
document be used or considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy the securities or other instruments mentioned in it. The information
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their analysis upon any change of circumstances.

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Additional Information for US Readers: Banif Securities Inc. and IXE Securities Inc., are registered broker-dealers. The research was prepared
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Please refer to the end the report to analyst and firm disclosure Banif Ixe - April 29, 2009 | 8