Challenges of SDGs

Prof. Santosh kumar

Executive Director,
National Institute of Disaster Management
Knowing our cities
Slums Delhi
RISK is built
Mumbai flood
Mumbai Urban flood
Mama, where are you?
 26 January 2001:Development loss
Earthquake of magnitude 7.7 Mw (USGS)
One of the worst Reported lives
earthquakes in the lost 13,805
last 180 years

Over 11 Lakh homes 167,000 persons

affected by the suffered injury
calamity

Over 10,000 small and Over 2000

medium industrial units schools, 300
Around 50 lakh people hospitals
went out of production needed to be given destroyed
50000 artisans lost their immediate relief
livelihood

.that too in the wake of two consecutive years of drought.

2/11/2017 19
 IMPACT: A LARGER PICTURE

Direct losses
Human lives
Livestock, other animals
Private property
Indirect losses
Municipal infrastructure
Power/ Export/ import
Tertiary losses
telecommunications Agricultural output
infrastructure
Industry/ services output Long-term development
Health/ education assets
Remittance income Overall investment
Gujarat earthquake climate
estimate: US$ 3156 million Fall in earning potential
due to disability, trauma Funds reallocation
Unemployment Community migration/
relocation
Health hazards
Gujarat earthquake Gujarat earthquake
estimate: US$ 628 estimate: US$ 2076 million
2/11/2017 million 20
Incidence of natural disaster
 Interrupted development Normal
Disaster Development

Emergency
Response
Recovery Reconstruction Post RR

Rapid Assessment

Phase Longer
Post Disaster RR term
Out Devt
Assessment Plan
Plan Plan
Disaster impacts accounted only the
stock and not the flow disruptions
Close to 50 percent of disaster impacts are not accounted for
Global Assessment Report 2013
Direct Losses: complete/partial
Macroeconomic

destruction of immovable assets

Indirect Losses: Disruptions of

economic flow, business
interruption, impacts on a
business supply chain

Wider Impacts: loss of

market share, competitors
taking clients, labor
shortages

Macroeconomic Effects: all

the above losses and impacts
this task must never become an
impossible burden....

Source : Ian Davis,

2nd Asian conf.
 DISTRIBUTION OF NATURAL DISASTERS

JAPAN
ALASKA CHINA

INDONESIA
USA
INDIA

More than 260 events

How we live with Risk ? Ignorance ?
Avoidance ? Or by choice ?
 Importance of Risk Analysis
Risk Analysis is a basic
instrument of DRA Disaster Risk
paradigm which enables the Assessment
integration of the risk
assessment findings into a
Risk Reduction Strategy and Risk Analysis
Outcome What can go wrong?
What is the likelihood of it going wrong?
What are the consequences?
Risk
Reduction
Outcome

Risk Management Risk Communication

What can be done? Who are the
What are the options? stakeholders?
What are the trade- What information do they
offs? need?
How is it presented?
 URBAN RECONSTRUCTION
REPARATION OF 4 DEVELOPMENT PLANS

Traditional markets Traffic Large central Market streets

on specific streets congestion market area for pedestrians

Existing Proposed

No hierarchy of Plots have no Well planned Proper access

streets proper access street network for all plots

32 Source Bhuj Development Plan: GERRP

 URBAN RECONSTRUCTION
PREPARATION OF 13 TOWN PLANNING SCHEMES
Previous plot layout New plot layout

Before the implementation of the After the implementation of the

Town Planning Scheme Town Planning Scheme

33 Source Bhuj Development Plan: GERRP

Alakhnanda floods

1976
Community initiative for awareness generation
Community determination for reaching out to each stakeholder
The future generation : committed for risk free environment
And here is the result after 30 years
The past
is
defeated
The
valley
can
now
breathe
afresh
 Prevention is better
INTENSITY OF HUMAN LIVES
QUAKE LOST

Southern California 28.6.1991 6.2 M 2

Landers California 28.6.1992 7.3 M 3
Oregon 21.9.1993 6.4 M 2
Northridge, California 17-1-1994 6.9 M 60
Wyoming 3-2-1995 6.7 M 1

Central California 22-12-2003 6.8 M 2

JAPAN
Hokkaido 25-9-2003 8.3 M 0
Kobe 16.1.1995 6.9 M 5530
Kamchatka 12-5-2005 7.3 M 0
Fukuoka 20-3-2005 6.5 M 0
Honshu 16-8-2005 7.2 M 0
INDIA
Uttarkashii 20.10.1991 6.6 M 2000
Latur 30.9.1993 6.3 M 9475
Jabalpur 22.5.1997 6.0 M 39
Chamoli 29.3.1999 6.8 M 100
Bhuj 26.1.2001 6.9 M 13805
2/11/2017 46
the process requires creative
innovation,
And,
Compassion
 Gefhrdung
vermeiden
response Preparedness
Einwirkung
vermindern

Ereignis
bewltigen

Risiko carry risks

bertragen

risks
nicht out
zu
un-ver- remaining
nicht ver- of reach nicht
bewlti- non-trans-
ber-
Gesamt- avoidable risks
Ameidbare bleibende of
gende ferable
tragbare residual
technological societyresponse
has two choices. First it risks
can wait until
catastrophic
risiko risks
Risiken Risiken Risiken risks
Risiken Restrisiko
failures expose systemic deficiencies, distortion and self-deceptions
Secondly, a culture can provide social checks and balances to correct for
systemic distortion prior to catastrophic failures.