Investment Research

16 July 2010

EMEA Weekly
We remain worried about ZAR and HUF

Market movers ahead: Will the SARB cut again?

Rate decisions in Hungary and South Africa are the main events to watch next week.
MNB stays on hold
In Hungary we expect the Hungarian central bank to stay on hold keeping the key policy
rate at 5.25% as the recent sell-off in forint and the increased uncertainty outlook for
fiscal policy probably mean that easing cycle has come to an end.

South African rate decision will undoubtedly prove interesting to follow as the
uncertainty about the outcome is fairly high. While consensus expect the South African
central bank (SARB) to stay on hold we see a chance of yet another 50bp rate cut. That
would bring the key policy rate to 6.00% in South Africa. For the rate reduction argues
Source: Danske Markets
recent dovish comments from the SARB governor Gill Marcus, inflation development but
also recent data from the economy, which mostly surprised on the downside signalling
that economic recovery is losing steam.
Will the SARB deliver another cut?

FX Outlook: CZK back on the top spot

Last week our EMEA FX Scorecard overall send relatively bearish signals. The bearish
signals are not quite as strong now, but nonetheless the Scorecard is still overall negative
and we would therefore overall continue to expect some pressure on the EMEA
currencies going forward in next 1-3 months. That said the signal is certainly not a
“massive sell” signal and the Scorecard is in fact positive on three out of the seven
Source: Danske Markets
currencies in the Scorecard – CZK, PLN and TRY.

The Czech koruna is now back as the top scorer and CZK also remain the currency with
the strong potential for strengthening over the longer term due to attractive valuation.
Therefore we feel pretty confident in recommending investors to continue to be long the
Czech currency both against its region peers and USD and EUR.

This week we updated our FX forecasts. Read more in the July version of the Emerging
Markets Briefer.

Scorecard-based trade of the week Buy CZK/ZAR

Last week we recommended buying RON/ZAR based on our EMEA FX Scorecard. That
trade is up a bit over the week. This week the rand is still the lowest scoring currency in
the EMEA FX Scorecard, while the Czech koruna now is the highest scoring currency in
the Scorecard. We therefore recommend buying CZK/ZAR going into next week.

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EMEA Weekly

Calendar

EMEA Data and Events in Week29

Monday, July 19, 2010 Period Danske Bank Consensus Previous
HUF 14:00 Central Bank meeting (rate decision) % 5.25% 5.25% 5.25%
PLN 14:00 Producer prices y/y Jun 1.7% 1.5%
PLN 14:00 Industrial production y/y Jun 12.4% 11.5% 14.0%

Tuesday, July 20, 2010 Period Danske Bank Consensus Previous

RUB - Retail sales y/y Jun 5.9% 5.8% 5.1%
RUB - Unemployment % Jun 7.1% 7.2% 7.3%
RUB - Disposable income y/y Jun 3.4% 2.8%
RUB - Real wages y/y Jun 7.1% 7.0% 7.0%
EEK 7:00 Producer prices y/y Jun 3.8%
PLN 14:00 Core inflation y/y Jun 1.5% 1.6%

Wednesday, July 21, 2010 Period Danske Bank Consensus Previous

LVL 12:00 Producer prices y/y Jun

Thursday, July 22, 2010 Period Danske Bank Consensus Previous

ZAR 16:00 Monetary Policy Council Meeting % 6.00% 6.50% 6.50%

Friday, July 23, 2010 Period Danske Bank Consensus Previous

PLN 10:00 Retail sales y/y Jun 4.1% 4.3%
PLN 10:00 Unemployment % Jun 12.0% 11.6% 11.9%

The editors do not guarantee the accurateness of figures, hours or dates stated above
Note that all releases are CET.

Source: Danske Markets

2| 16 July 2010
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EMEA Weekly

Fixed income market update

Review: CEE inflation surprises on the upside
It has been relatively calm on the EMEA fixed income markets over the past week, but EMEA swap rate performance
some notable news could however longer-term implications for the EMEA markets. We 2Y IRS Mid level 1W chg - bp
especially have noted that both Hungarian and Polish inflation surprised on the upside in CZK 1.66 4
June and though it did not move Hungarian and Polish yields much it is pretty clear that HUF 5.89 5
especially the Polish inflation outlook have been changing a bit recently. Since we PLN 4.61 6
publish our latest Macro Monitor on Poland on June 26 we have been warning that RUB 5.45 -2
TRY 7.54 -3
inflation could surprise on the upside going forward given the latest upside surprise on
ZAR 6.64 5
inflation it now looks like Polish inflation could be heading above the Polish the Polish
5Y IRS Mid level 1W chg - bp
central bank’s official inflation target of 2½%in the coming month and might very well CZK 2.25 7
move above 3% already in Q4. HUF 6.26 4
PLN 5.16 8
Preview: Monetary Policy Tracker points to Polish rate hike
RUB 6.39 -37
Hence, with Polish inflation likely moving above the NBP’s inflation target in coming TRY 8.13 -16
months it would not be surprising to see the NBP becoming more hawkish – especially ZAR 7.46 6
taking into account that the output gap in the Polish economy more or less has been close Data updated: 16/07 - CET: 12:51
and the labour market situation having stabilised. Therefore it was not a major surprise Source: Reuters Ecowin and Danske Markets

when NBP Monetary Policy Council member Andrzej Bratkowski this week in an
interview with the news agency Bloomberg hinted that it could be necessary to hike
NBP’s key policy rate presently at 3.50% relatively soon. Mr. Bratkowski did not give
any indication of the timing of these rate hikes, but it now seems pretty clear that we
could have a rate hike already this year. This was further underlined by the Minutes from
the MPC meeting in the Polish central bank showed that some MPC members wanted a
rate hike already in June. The Minutes was published on Thursday.

We now tend to think that the rather hike could come already in the coming months –
which is earlier than currently priced by the market and earlier than the consensus
expectation which probably at the moment sees rate hikes in Q4 rather than in Q3. Hence,
we would still be positioned for higher Polish rates and yields especially in the very short
end of the curve.
Market movers ahead: Will the SARB cut again?
Rate decisions in Hungary and South Africa are the main events to watch next week.

In Hungary we expect the Hungarian central bank to stay on hold keeping the key policy
rate at 5.25% as the recent sell-off in forint and the increased uncertainty outlook for
fiscal policy probably mean that easing cycle has come to an end.

South African rate decision will undoubtedly prove interesting to follow as the
uncertainty about the outcome is fairly high. While consensus expect the South African
central bank (SARB) to stay on hold we see a chance of yet another 50bp rate cut. That
would bring the key policy rate to 6.00% in South Africa. For the rate reduction argues
recent dovish comments from the SARB governor Gill Marcus, inflation development but
also recent data from the economy, which mostly surprised on the downside signalling
that economic recovery is losing steam.

3| 16 July 2010
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EMEA Weekly

FX Market update
FX performance – one week
Preview: Very calm – nearly boring
ZAR vs. EUR
It has been a relatively calm we on the EMEA FX markets as summer calm have sat in 1-week
TRY vs. EUR change
with very low turnover in the market and little volatility. Even increased concerns over
PLN vs. EUR
apparent tensions between the Hungarian government and the EU and IMF failed to do
RON vs. EUR
much to move the EMEA FX markets and the forint have been largely stable over the HUF vs. EUR
week. The Romanian leu has been under a bit of pressure over the week on the back of CZK vs. EUR
renewed growth concerns – or at least that is the only excuse we can find for the Basket vs. RUB
weakness in the leu over the week and to be frank volumes are so light in the EMEA FX ZAR vs. USD
markets at the moment that it is hard to say that anything is really moving the markets. TRY vs. USD

Review: CZK back on the top spot EUR/USD

-5.0 0.0 5.0

Last week our EMEA FX Scorecard overall send relatively bearish signals. The bearish %
Data updated: 16/07 - CET: 12:51
signals are not quite as strong now, but nonetheless the Scorecard is still overall negative
and we would therefore overall continue to expect some pressure on the EMEA Source: Reuters Ecowin

currencies going forward in next 1-3 months. That said the signal is certainly not a
“massive sell” signal and the Scorecard is in fact positive on three out of the seven
currencies in the Scorecard – CZK, PLN and TRY.

The Czech koruna is now back as the top scorer and CZK also remain the currency with
the strong potential for strengthening over the longer term due to attractive valuation.
Therefore we feel pretty confident in recommending investors to continue to be long the
Czech currency both against its region peers and USD and EUR. In that regard it should
be noted that the downtrend in EUR/USD seems to have been broken for now and
FX performance – one month
EUR/USD as been trending up a bit in the recent weeks. This undoubtedly is helpful for
the EUR sensitive CEE currencies – CZK, PLN, HUF and RON. On the other hand more ZAR vs. EUR
USD weakness could weigh on the USD sensitive EMEA currencies such as TRY, ZAR TRY vs. EUR

and ILS. RON vs. EUR 1-month change

PLN vs. EUR
Overall, we still think that risks are mostly screwed to the downside on the EMEA HUF vs. EUR
currencies and we could see renewed volatility in the coming weeks however we would Basket vs. RUB
not be overly worried about being long in CZK and PLN going forward as these ZAR vs. USD
currencies trade at levels which we consider to be fundamentally undervalued. CZK vs. EUR
TRY vs. USD
EUR/USD
Scorecard-based trade of the week Buy CZK/ZAR
-5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0
Last week we recommended buying RON/ZAR based on our EMEA FX Scorecard. That %
Data updated: 16/07 - CET: 12:52
trade is up a bit over the week. This week the rand is still the lowest scoring currency in
Source: Reuters Ecowin
the EMEA FX Scorecard, while the Czech koruna now is the highest scoring currency in
the Scorecard. We therefore recommend buying CZK/ZAR going into next week.

4| 16 July 2010
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EMEA Weekly

FX Scorecard overview
Score – PLN Score – HUF EMEA FX Scorecard outline
5.0 5.0 • All scores are computed on a scale
2.5 2.5 from +5 to -5. The score measures
0.2
0.0 0.0 how far from a mean point the
-2.5 -2.5 -0.4
indicator is, measured by standard
-5.0 -5.0 deviation. A score is then combined

Technical

Global
Carry
Technical

Valuation
Carry

Global

Valuation

Macro
Macro

Total
Total

from the different sub-scores.

• Macro: calculates the growth

momentum in different monthly
Danske Markets calculations Danske Markets calculations
macro indicators.

• Technical: calculates the momentum

Score – CZK Score – TRY in different volatility measures, short-
5.0 5.0 and longer-term moving averages and
2.5 0.5 2.5 the level of relative strength index.
0.1
0.0 0.0 • Carry: calculates the momentum in
-2.5 -2.5 local three-month rates, carry-to-risk,
-5.0 -5.0 spread against EUR or USD three-
Technical

Technical
Global

Global
Carry

Carry
Valuation

Valuation
Macro

Macro
Total

Total
month rates and spread against peers.

• Global: consists of a global growth

score based on leading global
Danske Markets calculations Danske Markets calculations
indicators and hard macro data, a
liquidity score based on the
momentum in G3 real rates and a
Score – ZAR Score – RON
sentiment score based on performance
5.0 5.0
in the global equity market and
2.5 2.5
traditional funding currencies.
0.0 0.0
-0.1 • Valuation: calculates whether
-2.5 -1.0 -2.5
-5.0 -5.0 currencies are over/undervalued
compared with the long-term trend in
Technical

Technical
Global

Global
Carry

Carry
Valuation

Valuation
Macro

Macro
Total

Total
Com

the real effective exchange rate

(REER). The trend is adjusted for
external imbalances, i.e. an
Danske Markets calculations Danske Markets calculations
imbalance-adjusted REER. The scores
are calibrated to reflect the short-term
Score – ILS Score – Total impact of the valuation on the FX.
5.0 5.0
2.5 2.5
0.0 0.0
-0.3 -0.1
-2.5 -2.5
-5.0 -5.0
Technical

Technical
Global

Global
Carry

Carry
Valuation

Valuation
Macro

Macro
Total

Total

Danske Markets calculations Danske Markets calculations

5| 16 July 2010
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EMEA Weekly

CIS update
Important data on consumption is due next week from Russia, although we do not expect Russian inflation is likely to accelerate
any surprises. There is no reason to assume that upward sloping trends in real wage 25,0 25,0
% y/y % y/y
growth or retail sales growth would show any significant changes. However, consumption 22,5 22,5

20,0 20,0
growth will not achieve the pre-crisis pace before bank lending to households kicks off. << Danske CPI model
17,5 17,5

15,0 15,0
Given that the recovery will continue, we think that the inflation in Russia will start a
12,5 12,5
rapid acceleration before the year-end. Everyone seems to have forgotten, that we are 10,0 10,0
CPI>>
7,5 7,5
talking about Russia, where year on year consumer price inflation has averaged above
5,0 5,0
10% in the past five years. Yes, inflation is now below 6%, but we have just seen the 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

worst recession in a decade. When inflation bottomed the last time in early 2007 around Source: Reuters Ecowin
7% y/y, it took only a year for it to accelerate to 15%. Given that money supply, wage
growth, commodity prices and fiscal policy all point to accelerating inflation by the year-
end, we consider our above consensus CPI forecast of 9.2% for 2011 rather conservative.

June industrial production continued to grow strongly in year on year terms in Ukraine.
Ukrainian central bank sees the Q2 GDP growth now at 5.7-6.7% y/y compared to 4.9%
in Q1. All in all, we think that the IMF loan deal will significantly help the recovery in GDP and IP growth in Ukraine
Ukraine, not only by covering funding needs, but also because IMF will now keep control 30 30
% y/y Manufacturing >> % y/y
over fiscal expenditure and other political measures. As one of the biggest problems in 20
GDP>>
20

10 10
Ukraine has been political instability and, because of that, political populism, none of the 0 0

significant improvements in fiscal spending have been made. Now the politicians have -10 -10

-20 -20
the IMF to blame for rising the heavily subsidized retail prices of gas and electricity. << Mining
-30 -30

-40 -40

-50 -50
07 08 09 10

Source: Reuters Ecowin

6| 16 July 2010
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EMEA Weekly

Special: Turkish macro outlook

This week we presented our updated macro forecast on the Turkish economy. The
Significant rebound in growth
forecasts take into account the latest economic releases for May and June. Below we
present a short summary of the macro outlook. To read the full analysis see our Turkish 15 15
% y/y % y/y
10 10
Macro Monitor
5 5

The Turkish economy has experienced a quite dramatic rebound in economic growth. In 0 0
-5 -5
Q1 10 the economy expanded 11.7% y/y – a growth rate only comparable to China. Such Gdp, Turkey
-10 -10
a high growth rate is only temporary and can mainly be contributed to last year’s
-15 -15
significant economic setback. Going forward we expect Turkey to lead the region in 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

terms of economic growth albeit at a more modest pace. We forecast Turkish economic
growth of 7.9% y/y in 2010 and 5.9% y/y in 2011. Source: Reuters Ecowin and Danske Markets

The sharp Turkish economic recovery is primarily driven be a recovery in domestic

demand. Growth rates in both private consumption and investments have now returned to Domestic demand drives up imports
pre-crisis levels. The booming domestic demand has led to a large increase in imports
40 40
which will consequently weaken the current account balance. We expect the Turkish 30
% y/y % y/y
30
Import, Turkey
20 Export, Turkey 20
current account deficit to increase in 2010 to 4.7% of GDP.
10 10
0 0
Rising economic activity and consequently rising wage growth will put upward pressure -10 -10
on inflation going forward. We expect an average inflation of 9.0% y/y and 7.8% y/y – -20 -20
-30 -30
above the central bank’s year-end target of 6.5% y/y and 5.5% y/y in 2010 and 2011 -40 -40
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
respectively.

Source: Reuters Ecowin and Danske Markets

Macro forecasts
C/A balance to weaken on high
1 Private. 1 1 1 domestic demand
Year Gdp 1 Fixed Inv Export Import
cons
1.5 % of GDP % of GDP 1.5
2009 -4.7 -2.0 -18.8 -5.3 -13.2 0.5 Current account, Turkey 0.5
-0.5 -0.5
2010 7.9 6.7 17.9 6.6 12.6 -1.5 -1.5
-2.5 -2.5
2011 5.9 5.7 8.6 14.0 11.2 -3.5 -3.5
-4.5 -4.5
2012 5.5 5.3 7.9 12.9 11.0 -5.5 -5.5
-6.5 -6.5
1) A verage % y/y 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Source: Reuters Ecowin and Danske Markets

Source: Reuters Ecowin and Danske Markets

Macro forecasts
Inflationary pressure increasing
Trade 2, 3 Industrial 1 1
Year 2, 3 Current acc. 1 Wages Inflation 13
% y/y % y/y
13
Balance prod. 12 12
11 11
2009 -4.0 -2.2 -8.9 9.8 6.3 10 10
9 9
2010 -5.3 -4.7 10.5 8.6 9.0 8 8
7 7
Inflation,Turkey
2011 -4.7 -3.4 4.0 9.0 7.8 6 6
5 5
2012 -4.5 -3.4 7.1 10.2 8.2 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

1) A verage % y/y 2) % o f GDP 3) Expo rt and impo rt prices, EUR

Source: Reuters Ecowin and Danske Markets
Source: Reuters Ecowin and Danske Markets

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EMEA Weekly

Currency forecast, EMEA

Currency Forecast, New Europe/EMEA
Jul 16. 2010 EUR USD SEK NOK DKK
Actual 1.30 - 729 619 574
+3m 1.15 - 817 665 647
USD
+6m 1.18 - 780 644 631
+12m 1.27 - 724 598 587
Actual 4.09 3.15 231 196 182
+3m 4.05 3.52 232 189 184
PLN
+6m 4.05 3.43 227 188 184
+12m 4.00 3.15 230 190 186
Actual 281 216 3.37 2.86 2.66
+3m 285 248 3.30 2.68 2.61
HUF
+6m 285 242 3.23 2.67 2.61
+12m 280 220 3.29 2.71 2.66
Actual 25.4 19.6 37.2 31.6 29.3
+3m 24.8 21.6 37.9 30.8 30.0
CZK
+6m 24.4 20.7 37.7 31.1 30.5
+12m 23.6 18.6 39.0 32.2 31.6
Actual 15.6 12.1 60.5 51.3 47.6
+3m 15.7 13.6 60.1 48.9 47.5
EEK
+6m 15.7 13.3 58.8 48.6 47.5
+12m 15.7 12.3 58.8 48.6 47.6
Actual 0.71 0.55 1335 1134 1052
+3m 0.70 0.61 1343 1093 1063
LVL
+6m 0.70 0.59 1314 1086 1063
+12m 0.70 0.55 1314 1086 1064
Actual 3.45 2.66 274 233 216
+3m 3.45 3.00 272 222 216
LTL
+6m 3.45 2.92 267 220 216
+12m 3.45 2.72 267 220 216
Actual 4.26 3.28 222 189 175
+3m 4.50 3.91 209 170 165
RON
+6m 4.50 3.81 204 169 165
+12m 4.55 3.58 202 167 164
Actual 1.96 1.51 484 411 381
+3m 1.96 1.70 481 391 381
BGN
+6m 1.96 1.66 471 389 381
+12m 1.96 1.54 471 389 381
Actual 1.98 1.53 477 405 375
+3m 1.75 1.52 537 437 425
TRY
+6m 1.85 1.57 497 411 402
+12m 2.11 1.66 436 360 353
Actual 39.4 30.4 24.0 20.4 18.9
+3m 37.7 32.8 24.9 20.3 19.7
RUB
+6m 36.0 30.5 25.6 21.1 20.7
+12m 36.2 28.5 25.4 21.0 20.6
Actual 10.2 7.90 92.3 78.4 72.7
+3m 9.8 8.50 96.2 78.3 76.1
UAH
+6m 9.3 7.90 98.7 81.5 79.8
+12m 8.6 6.80 106.5 88.0 86.3
Actual 9.7 7.50 97.2 82.5 76.6
+3m 9.1 7.95 102.8 83.7 81.4
ZAR
+6m 9.7 8.25 94.5 78.1 76.4
+12m 11.2 8.80 82.3 68.0 66.7

Source: Reuters Ecowin and Danske Markets

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EMEA Weekly

Macro Forecast, EMEA

Macro forecast, EMEA
Macro Monitors
Private. Fixed Trade Current Industrial Unem- Infla-
1
Year Gdp Cons1,5 Inv 1,5 1, 4,5
Export 1, 4,5
Import Balance2, 4,5 acc.2, 4,5 prod.1,5 ploym3 tion1
Macro Monitor – Hungary, June 25

2009 -4.1 -0.3 -9.2 -14.2 -15.3 5.0 -1.1 -13.2 9.1 1.1 Macro Monitor – Czech Republic, June 25
Czech Republic 2010 0.5 0.2 -3.1 12.3 7.7 7.1 1.3 10.7 10.1 1.5 Macro Monitor – Turkey, July 14
2011 2.4 0.7 6.4 14.7 11.1 8.1 2.1 9.4 10.7 2.0
Macro Monitor – Poland, June 25
2009 -14.8 -19.4 -35.0 -11.6 -27.9 - 3.0 - 14.5 -0.1

Estonia 2010 -2.3 -3.0 0.1 1.5 7.2 - 1.0 - 18.0 -0.4
Source: Danske Markets
2011 2.9 2.2 6.7 13.3 14.9 - 0.0 - 15.0 0.7

2009 -6.3 -7.6 -6.3 -8.9 -15.2 4.3 0.2 -17.8 10.8 4.2

Hungary 2010 -1.9 -2.0 -2.2 12.1 11.2 5.7 1.8 9.5 13.6 5.2

2011 3.0 2.6 4.1 8.9 7.3 5.6 1.3 9.0 14.7 4.6

2009 -18.3 -24.7 -38.0 -15.7 -36.1 - 3.0 - 17.3 3.7

Latvia 2010 -4.7 -3.4 1.3 -0.5 3.5 - 4.5 - 20.0 -0.9

2011 1.6 2.1 7.0 7.5 11.9 0.4 18.0 0.8

2009 -15.5 -17.8 -40.1 -17.9 -32.4 - 0.7 - 14.0 4.5

Lithuania 2010 -3.7 -2.2 -3.2 2.0 2.9 - 1.0 - 18.0 0.3

2011 2.4 3.7 9.4 12.5 11.0 - 0.0 - 17.0 2.3

2009 1.7 2.3 -0.5 -10.6 -14.2 -1.0 -1.6 -3.6 11.9 3.5

Poland 2010 3.0 4.7 -10.6 4.4 3.1 -0.6 -1.1 12.6 12.4 2.6

2011 4.0 3.5 8.5 6.9 5.5 0.2 -0.5 10.0 12.4 3.0

2009 -7.9 -7.8 -15.9 -4.2 -29.8 7.4 3.8 -10.9 8.2 11.7

Russia 2010 3.6 4.5 1.0 24.0 19.0 7.5 4.5 5.2 7.9 7.0

2011 4.1 5.9 7.0 13.0 22.0 6.9 3.1 3.6 7.3 9.2

2009 -4.7 -2.0 -18.8 -5.3 -13.2 -4.0 -2.2 -8.9 - 6.3

Turkey 2010 7.9 6.7 17.9 6.6 12.6 -5.3 -4.7 10.5 - 9.0

2011 5.9 5.7 8.6 14.0 11.2 -4.7 -3.4 4.0 - 7.8
1) Average % y/y

Source: Reuters Ecowin and Danske Markets

9| 16 July 2010
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EMEA Weekly

Emerging Markets Contacts

Emerging Markets Research

Lars Christensen +45 45 12 85 30 larch@danskebank.dk
Flemming Jegbjærg Nielsen +45 45 12 85 35 flemm@danskebank.dk
Violeta Klyviene +370 5 2156992 vkly@danskebank.com
Stanislava Pravdova +45 45 12 80 71 spra@danskebank.dk
Jens Nærvig Pedersen +45 45 12 84 98 jenpe@danskebank.dk
Sanna Elina Kurronen +358 10 546 7573 kurr@danskebank.com

Emerging Markets Sales, Danske Markets

Erik Rasmussen +45 45 14 32 47 eras@danskebank.dk

Global Retail SME, FX

Stig Hansen +45 45 14 60 86 sh@danskebank.dk
Flemming Winther +45 45 14 68 24 flw@danskebank.dk

Trading FX, Fixed Income, Danske Markets

Frank Sandbæk Vig +45 45 14 67 96 fsv@danskebank.dk
Thomas Manthorpe +45 45 14 69 68 tman@danskebank.dk
Markku Anttila +358 10 513 8705 markku.anttila@sampopankki.fi
Perttu Tuomi +358 10 513 8738 perttu.tuomi@sampopankki.fi

Danske Bank Poland, Warsaw

Maciej Semeniuk +48 22 33 77 114 msem@pl.danskebank.com
Bartłomiej Dzieniecki +48 22 33 77 112 bdz@pl.danskebank.com

Danske Markets Baltics

Howard Wilkinson +358 50 374 559 howard.wilkinson@danskebank.com
Martins Strazds +371 6707 2245 martins.strazds@danskebanka.lv
Giedre Geciauskiene +370 5215 6180 giedre.geciauskiene@danskebankas.lt
Lauri Palmaru +372 675 2464 lauri.palmaru@sampopank.ee

ZAO Danske Bank Russia, Saint-Petersburg Treasury Department

Mikko Pitkänen +7 812 332 73 06 mikko.pitkanen@danskebank.ru
Vladimir Biserov +7 812 332 73 04 vladimir.biserov@danskebank.ru
Darja Kounina +7 812 332 73 04 darja.kounina@danskebank.ru

All EM research is available on Bloomberg DMEM

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EMEA Weekly

Disclosure
This research report has been prepared by Danske Research, which is part of Danske Markets, a division of
Danske Bank. Danske Bank is under supervision by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority. The author of
this research report is Lars Christensen, Chief Analyst.

Danske Bank has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and to ensure the provision of high
quality research based on research objectivity and independence. These procedures are documented in the Danske
Bank Research Policy. Employees within the Danske Bank Research Departments have been instructed that any
request that might impair the objectivity and independence of research shall be referred to Research Management
and to the Compliance Officer. Danske Bank Research departments are organised independently from and do not
report to other Danske Bank business areas. Research analysts are remunerated in part based on the over-all
profitability of Danske Bank, which includes investment banking revenues, but do not receive bonuses or other
remuneration linked to specific corporate finance or debt capital transactions.

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11 | 16 July 2010
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